Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

Why should the price of gold be higher and what leads you to this conclusion? Gold is performing slightly better than inflation, what’s the issue?

Having billions in speculative dollars buying assets with zero intention of consumption does not equate to true price.

It is actually us who are manipulating commodity markets. I was there for silver in 2011 and saw the intentional crashing of the Comex. The rules then changed and guess what? All that demand suddenly vanished and after 2 decades price is still -40% lower than the peak.

Speaking of silver, I really regret dumping over $3,000 in 200 silver gold coins around 2010. I still have those coins. Should have bought BTC instead. I was actively looking for a hedge against the dollar back then. Bitcoin was already known and discussed here on Getbig. But I skipped right over it. I thought it was similar to the SETI@home screensaver that just drained your pockets.  A friend even told me to start mining Bitcoin and I said thanks, no thanks.

[SouJerz]

I’m still running the SETI screen saver.

[gib]

BTC HALVING COUNTDOWN CLOCK:

https://watcher.guru/bitcoin-halving

Happy halving everyone. 12 hours to go!

This next cycle is going to be epic.

Tick Tock, Next Block...

[gib]

My target for next halving in 2028 is...

Most likely price / mid-point - 1 BTC = $220,000.

High water mark - 1 BTC = $750,000.

Low water mark -1 BTC = $80,000.

[SouJerz]

keep stackin those satoshi's!

[obsidian]

I agree with this poster (rsa.eth) that ETH is currently massively undervalued. It should be at $10,000 right now relative to the BTC price, if not more. It will cost more to attack ETH right now than BTC. A staker would need 66% of the staked ETH. It would take time to try and buy up 66% of the ETH supply, and the price would go parabolic. There's also a queue to become a staking validator.

https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1781081511736786985

A post on Reddit:

You think those Bitcoin mines are impenetrable fortresses? If a government seriously wanted to take down Bitcoin they can send a small military force to the biggest mines and have them taken over within a week. Fairly easy to justify the force with "North Korea and/or Russia is using Bitcoin to sell weapons to Terrorists and we need to stop them".

This would be about 1/100th of the cost of buying up 51% of all ETH.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/11duz5f/is_ethereum_more_secure_than_bitcoin_at_this_point/

Ivan talks about ETH in this clip. One note I should make is that ETH has not been deflationary the past week. For the past 7 days the inflation as been 0.171%. Not a huge number though, that inflation is still lower than Bitcoin's current inflation, and lower than almost any other chain out there. I think BNB has a more aggressive burn. And there are efforts to burn a lot of SHIBA. Elon talked about reducing the supply of DOGE as well, or he advocated for whales to vacate some of their holdings.

[obsidian]

^^^^ Post above referenced a 51% ETH attack. It actually needs to be a 66% attack for total control.

Here's another Reddit post:

Both would require billions in fiat, but you're being stupid when thinking about how an attacker would get ASICs. They would build factories to produce them, not buy them from the market.

Lets work out their budget, how much could they spend and still be less than attacking Ethereum? So there is currently about 17 million ether staked. That works out to about $28 billion. To be equivalent to a 51% attack on PoW, an Ethereum attacker would need 2/3rds of the total stake, meaning double the current amount staked... $56 billion (assuming that the price is unchanged despite buying vastly more ether than is liquid anywhere).

For that amount of money you could build 10-20 Tesla gigafactories and still have plenty of billions left for expenses.

It is very silly to build your argument on the idea that ASICs are a limited resource and think that security comes from there not being enough for sale. That is true for ether, an attacker has literally no way to produce their own, they have to buy it from the market. That is not true for ASICs when we're talking about these amounts of money.

And from ethereum.org:

Attackers using >=66% of the total stake

An attacker with 66% or more of the total staked ether can finalize their preferred chain without having to coerce any honest validators. The attacker can simply vote for their preferred fork and then finalize it, simply because they can vote with a dishonest supermajority. As the supermajority stakeholder, the attacker would always control the contents of the finalized blocks, with the power to spend, rewind and spend again, censor certain transactions and reorg the chain at will. By purchasing additional ether to control 66% rather than 51%, the attacker is effectively buying the ability to do ex post reorgs and finality reversions (i.e. change the past as well as control the future). The only real defenses here are the enormous cost of 66% of the total staked ether, and the option to fall back to the social layer to coordinate adoption of an alternative fork. We can explore this in more detail in the next section.

https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/consensus-mechanisms/pos/attack-and-defense/

[Mayday]

What time period are you viewing? Sure, gold prices have started to climb. It just looks to me like it has a lot more room to run, unless the price is kept down artificially to reduce the impact on manufacturing and sales.

Here are some past prices:

July 2011 Ounce of Gold: $1,825

April 2024 Ounce of Gold: $2,382

Increase of 30.52% in 13 years

Food prices are up a lot more than 30.52% the past 13 years. Not sure how accurate these numbers are, but here's a site that calculates a 47% increase in food from 2011 to 2024. I think it is probably more than that.

https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food/price-inflation/2011-to-2024?amount=100

Gold is a scarce asset. And if you zoom out from 2011 to 2024 it has not kept up with the cost of certain goods.

Electronics have gone up in some areas and stayed the same in other areas. TVs have come down and the tech specs have gone up. 15 years ago a top of the line motherboard would run around $250. Now they go for over $1,000 - see the MSI Z790 Godlike. The tech or features are a lot more advanced though.

https://www.msi.com/Motherboard/MEG-Z790-GODLIKE

I’m looking at the period of the largest inflationary event of your adult life. Gold is doing what it is supposed to do and is ahead of inflation.

I have my own Gold targets and timing but just like with crypto they are much lower than 99% of other people’s.

One should ponder if they got inflation prediction wrong, rate prediction wrong, DXY wrong, they will get inflationary hedge price targets wrong aswell (always wrong to the upside). Conviction should come from getting things right. Gold hasn’t moved to the 10k targets because it’s not going to.

[obsidian]

I’m looking at the period of the largest inflationary event of your adult life. Gold is doing what it is supposed to do and is ahead of inflation.

I have my own Gold targets and timing but just like with crypto they are much lower than 99% of other people’s.

One should ponder if they got inflation prediction wrong, rate prediction wrong, DXY wrong, they will get inflationary hedge price targets wrong aswell (always wrong to the upside). Conviction should come from getting things right. Gold hasn’t moved to the 10k targets because it’s not going to.

On January 21, 1980, gold closes at $850 an ounce, the market high for decades. Silver closes at $49.

1987 high gold price was $502.75

https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator

$100 in 1980 is worth $381 in 2024 (if you can actually believe that). This is an average inflation rate of 3.10% and cumulative inflation of 280.65%.

Gold went from $850 in 1980 to $2,392 in 2024, an increase of 181.412%. And the cumulative inflation during this period was 280.65%.

Let's look at the 1987 price.

$502.75 to $2,392 is a 375.783% increase.

The thing is, the official method the government uses to calculate inflation is bogus. In reality it has been much higher, and most likely outpaced the gold price increase.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

For example, in 1987, a dozen eggs cost $0.78. In Biden's economy in 2023, a dozen eggs peaked at $4.82.That's a price increase of 517.949%. And gold only increased by 375.783%.

http://www.1980sflashback.com/1987/economy.asp
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/how-it-started-how-its-going-price-eggs-milk-steak-up-biden-took-office
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/percentage-increase-calculator.php

No, I am not impressed with the price increase of Gold relative to inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. The dollar is a doomed currency, like all other FIAT currencies.

[SouJerz]

On January 21, 1980, gold closes at $850 an ounce, the market high for decades. Silver closes at $49.

1987 high gold price was $502.75

https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator

$100 in 1980 is worth $381 in 2024 (if you can actually believe that). This is an average inflation rate of 3.10% and cumulative inflation of 280.65%.

Gold went from $850 in 1980 to $2,392 in 2024, an increase of 181.412%. And the cumulative inflation during this period was 280.65%.

Let's look at the 1987 price.

$502.75 to $2,392 is a 375.783% increase.

The thing is, the official method the government uses to calculate inflation is bogus. In reality it has been much higher, and most likely outpaced the gold price increase.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

For example, in 1987, a dozen eggs cost $0.78. In Biden's economy in 2023, a dozen eggs peaked at $4.82.That's a price increase of 517.949%. And gold only increased by 375.783%.

http://www.1980sflashback.com/1987/economy.asp
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/how-it-started-how-its-going-price-eggs-milk-steak-up-biden-took-office
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/percentage-increase-calculator.php

No, I am not impressed with the price increase of Gold relative to inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. The dollar is a doomed currency, like all other FIAT currencies.

Buy Bitcoin!

[Mayday]

On January 21, 1980, gold closes at $850 an ounce, the market high for decades. Silver closes at $49.

1987 high gold price was $502.75

https://smartasset.com/investing/inflation-calculator

$100 in 1980 is worth $381 in 2024 (if you can actually believe that). This is an average inflation rate of 3.10% and cumulative inflation of 280.65%.

Gold went from $850 in 1980 to $2,392 in 2024, an increase of 181.412%. And the cumulative inflation during this period was 280.65%.

Let's look at the 1987 price.

$502.75 to $2,392 is a 375.783% increase.

The thing is, the official method the government uses to calculate inflation is bogus. In reality it has been much higher, and most likely outpaced the gold price increase.

https://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

For example, in 1987, a dozen eggs cost $0.78. In Biden's economy in 2023, a dozen eggs peaked at $4.82.That's a price increase of 517.949%. And gold only increased by 375.783%.

http://www.1980sflashback.com/1987/economy.asp
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/how-it-started-how-its-going-price-eggs-milk-steak-up-biden-took-office
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/percentage-increase-calculator.php

No, I am not impressed with the price increase of Gold relative to inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. The dollar is a doomed currency, like all other FIAT currencies.

Nice outline.

*1980 to 2024 the dollar value is 280% inflation. Gold went 181%.
*You state the CPI is bogus and it’s really way higher (98% say this)
*you are not happy with Gold’s performance over 44yrs

After Gold went on its big run against inflation, It dropped -60% and eventually -70% yet inflation was still present. So inflation didn’t go away, why did it have such a large drop?

Look at the 30yr block from 1970-2000 and you see the Gold lows right at the end of 1999 kept aligned to inflation around +630. So for those 30yrs it aligned to inflation in the end.

Look at the next 23yr block 2000-2023. Gold goes almost 7x but inflation goes 0.9x 👀 so Gold is well in front of inflation at this point. So if it worked ok for the first 30yr block on the same metric but now in the 2nd block is ahead of the same metric, why is it the metric is suddenly wrong? Why is it ok for Gold to do +600% when inflation did +39% (2000-2011)  but not ok for Gold to do +33% vs 19% (2020-2024)?

I have NFI so it’s merely my different view on the numbers. I follow Gold and from 2020 I have seen every single guru and billionaire bullion guy get inflation, rates, DXY and gold prices horrifically wrong. They are on par with the Bitcoin maxis with expectations.

[obsidian]

Nice outline.

*1980 to 2024 the dollar value is 280% inflation. Gold went 181%.
*You state the CPI is bogus and it’s really way higher (98% say this)
*you are not happy with Gold’s performance over 44yrs

After Gold went on its big run against inflation, It dropped -60% and eventually -70% yet inflation was still present. So inflation didn’t go away, why did it have such a large drop?

Look at the 30yr block from 1970-2000 and you see the Gold lows right at the end of 1999 kept aligned to inflation around +630. So for those 30yrs it aligned to inflation in the end.

Look at the next 23yr block 2000-2023. Gold goes almost 7x but inflation goes 0.9x 👀 so Gold is well in front of inflation at this point. So if it worked ok for the first 30yr block on the same metric but now in the 2nd block is ahead of the same metric, why is it the metric is suddenly wrong? Why is it ok for Gold to do +600% when inflation did +39% (2000-2011)  but not ok for Gold to do +33% vs 19% (2020-2024)?

I have NFI so it’s merely my different view on the numbers. I follow Gold and from 2020 I have seen every single guru and billionaire bullion guy get inflation, rates, DXY and gold prices horrifically wrong. They are on par with the Bitcoin maxis with expectations.

It's good to be cautious. I just look at the US debt, the border crisis, the corrupt politicians, a new stimulus package for Ukraine and see BANKRUPT! The rest of the world will not keep financing the US. The debt party is going to end at some point, as sure as the sun will shine tomorrow.

Look at Granholm. She fucking lied under oath. Will she go to prison? Your average citizen will. These kind of people are destroying the US.

[obsidian]

Bitcoin is again above $66k, Binance over $600, Ethereum over $3,200. LFG!

BNB has been stellar the past few years to be honest. In the face of all the Binance FUD it has held up fantastically. I unstaked BNB with the intent to sell. Have not pulled the trigger, it keeps surprising me.

[gib]

I wonder who here BTFD?

(As usual after any big short term dip, I accumulated just a little more - got them at around 63.5k - not a perfectly timed bottom, but all good when you know in the long term supply is fixed and demand is growing).

Also bought a tiny bit of SOL and FIL.

[SouJerz]

I wonder who here BTFD?

(As usual after any big short term dip, I accumulated just a little more - got them at around 63.5k - not a perfectly timed bottom, but all good when you know in the long term supply is fixed and demand is growing).

Also bought a tiny bit of SOL and FIL.

I picked up more Satoshis at 61,000

[gib]

I picked up more Satoshis at 61,000

NICE!!!

[gib]

I picked up more Satoshis at 61,000

Maybe those were MayDay's which he sold ... 

[SouJerz]

Maybe those were MayDay's which he sold ... 

I have it set for automatic buys every 2 weeks and like you said when there is a nice drop 5% or bigger ill pick up a little extra.  MayDay's projections alerted him that 73,000 was the top so im sure he sold all of his satoshi's there. 

[Amerian Muscle]

While the rally expectation continues for Bitcoin, which generally rises after the halving according to historical data, a new assessment came from Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.

Stating that the last halving represents a seismic change for Bitcoin as a whole at this point, Edwards stated that the cost of electricity after the halving increased to a figure of $ 77,400 for each new BTC mined.

Noting that the $77,400 Bitcoin electricity cost (the “raw” cost of electricity per block) is now higher than the spot price, Edwards claimed that Bitcoin's days below $100,000 are numbered.

[Mayday]

Maybe those were MayDay's which he sold ... 

Mine were all alts remember 😉 I literally sold the top ticks and they are down -80% now and I way outperformed BTC. Perhaps Try being happy for someone who actually did what most can’t? I posted in real time so it’s all legit, none of the typical after the fact claiming in a move stuff.

I won’t give future moves. I can see you are upset gib. Hopefully whatever is stressing you goes away and you can feel better.

[Mayday]

It's good to be cautious. I just look at the US debt, the border crisis, the corrupt politicians, a new stimulus package for Ukraine and see BANKRUPT! The rest of the world will not keep financing the US. The debt party is going to end at some point, as sure as the sun will shine tomorrow.

Look at Granholm. She fucking lied under oath. Will she go to prison? Your average citizen will. These kind of people are destroying the US.

I hear you.

The Gold moves are long ones. The question will be what low do we take to be the correct starting point given it does decade long upwards moves?

The next consideration is dilution of asset classes on performance. Huge differences between the 2 starting points, one tops at 3k and one tops near 12k. So I’m looking for 3k timing to help decide which trend has the strongest correlation.  Much like what I did for the 76k BTC. See it get there first then take a look around and guess again 😀

[Amerian Muscle]

It's good to be cautious. I just look at the US debt, the border crisis, the corrupt politicians, a new stimulus package for Ukraine and see BANKRUPT! The rest of the world will not keep financing the US. The debt party is going to end at some point, as sure as the sun will shine tomorrow.

Look at Granholm. She fucking lied under oath. Will she go to prison? Your average citizen will. These kind of people are destroying the US.

she keeps saying "really??" and "my goodness?" and she is a woman

[gib]

Mine were all alts remember 😉 I literally sold the top ticks and they are down -80% now and I way outperformed BTC. Perhaps Try being happy for someone who actually did what most can’t? I posted in real time so it’s all legit, none of the typical after the fact claiming in a move stuff.

I won’t give future moves. I can see you are upset gib. Hopefully whatever is stressing you goes away and you can feel better.

Nothing is stressing me, other than you not being in BTC.

For my own holdings, I am cool as a cucumber. I just stack and chill.

I recall you being repeatedly bearish on BTC, so it surprises me you want even further out on the risk curve on shitcoins! But if you did, and if you made money, then of course I am happy for you my friend!

So, how are you storing those gains? In fiat (which you know will decline over time?). Or BTC, (which you know will increase over time?) Or some other asset?

[Mayday]

Nothing is stressing me, other than you not being in BTC.

For my own holdings, I am cool as a cucumber. I just stack and chill.

I recall you being repeatedly bearish on BTC, so it surprises me you want even further out on the risk curve on shitcoins! But if you did, and if you made money, then of course I am happy for you my friend!

So, how are you storing those gains? In fiat (which you know will decline over time?). Or BTC, (which you know will increase over time?) Or some other asset?

I have been bullish on BTC from 17.5k which was almost 2yrs ago. It’s a long time to have been bullish, most only went bull above 50k. I’m still bullish but it’s just if price can’t hold above 67k I am watching for 41k-48k. That’s why dip buying wasn’t really a thing for me at 60k. I have bought some nuked alts though.

I went far out on the curve because I believe this is the last alt run and therefore the last chance for a lottery attempt to beat BTC performance. Fuck it, why not lol.

The alts I sold I put towards my objectives, landscaping to finish on my property (my place will be magazine worthy in 5yrs once the gardens matures). I bought 7 guitars, all nice limited editions and then Paid for lessons in a different style to the Metallica I usually play. Quality of life stuff, be happy and proud with what I have achieved 😀

My big holdings are still in play. They are my bet on September 2025 (for now).


FWIW In my model I have something to happen in 2026. I am pondering if the US is going to re-peg their currency. It won’t be to Gold, it won’t be Bitcoin, it’ll be something else. The timing would be peak inflationary wave 2 so perhaps that’s all we get rather than 3 waves.

[Griffith]

I agree with this poster (rsa.eth) that ETH is currently massively undervalued. It should be at $10,000 right now relative to the BTC price, if not more. It will cost more to attack ETH right now than BTC. A staker would need 66% of the staked ETH. It would take time to try and buy up 66% of the ETH supply, and the price would go parabolic. There's also a queue to become a staking validator.

https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1781081511736786985

A post on Reddit:

You think those Bitcoin mines are impenetrable fortresses? If a government seriously wanted to take down Bitcoin they can send a small military force to the biggest mines and have them taken over within a week. Fairly easy to justify the force with "North Korea and/or Russia is using Bitcoin to sell weapons to Terrorists and we need to stop them".

This would be about 1/100th of the cost of buying up 51% of all ETH.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/11duz5f/is_ethereum_more_secure_than_bitcoin_at_this_point/

Ivan talks about ETH in this clip. One note I should make is that ETH has not been deflationary the past week. For the past 7 days the inflation as been 0.171%. Not a huge number though, that inflation is still lower than Bitcoin's current inflation, and lower than almost any other chain out there. I think BNB has a more aggressive burn. And there are efforts to burn a lot of SHIBA. Elon talked about reducing the supply of DOGE as well, or he advocated for whales to vacate some of their holdings.

ETH initially lagged in the last bullrun as well.