Who do you think is gonna win, Rob?
Who knows. Depends on events in the future.
It's a change election - economy is poor and the war isn't popular. historically, in times like these (think 1992) people choose a new party. Plus repubs ran the oldest guy with a creepy smile against Mr GQ. Plus mccain just keeps saying the Bush economic plan is great, even as oil hit $140 today and DOW dropped 400.
bottom line?
Poor/unemployed people aren't going to vote republican.
The elections in 2000 and 2004 were very very close.
A lot of repub voters became poor/unemployed in the last 4 years.
They may change their vote. if they do, Obama is in great shape.