Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 763053 times)

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10875 on: April 26, 2024, 01:43:28 PM »
The SEC's job is not to pick winners and losers. Their main job is to protect investors. Not to BRIBE companies.


Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10876 on: April 28, 2024, 11:34:19 PM »

It’s going to be interesting to see how the holders in the ETF inflows react.

Blackrock stopped reporting flows. The guys people swore were the enemy yet were cheered on by the same people when they started a BTC ETF lol 😂


Amerian Muscle

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10877 on: April 28, 2024, 11:47:18 PM »
2 years from now btc will be over 100k

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10878 on: April 28, 2024, 11:52:25 PM »
2 years from now btc will be over 100k

Why so bearish?


Amerian Muscle

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10879 on: April 28, 2024, 11:54:41 PM »
Why so bearish?
i bought 1 btc recently so that means the start of bear market is in

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10880 on: April 29, 2024, 12:14:54 AM »
i bought 1 btc recently so that means the start of bear market is in

😂

It can feel a bit like that at times.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10881 on: April 29, 2024, 01:27:07 AM »
Broader market is looking pretty messed up right now. Gonna need the JPowell and/or Yellen to pull another rabbit out of the hat pretty soon, otherwise it's gonna be a long sideways chop this summer and possibly longer.


gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10882 on: April 29, 2024, 01:52:56 AM »
It’s going to be interesting to see how the holders in the ETF inflows react.

Blackrock stopped reporting flows.

What do you mean by this? All ETFs are under the listing required to report flows on a daily basis. IBIT being no exception.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10883 on: April 29, 2024, 03:07:54 AM »
What do you mean by this? All ETFs are under the listing required to report flows on a daily basis. IBIT being no exception.

They have been showing zero flows for the past 3 trading days.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10884 on: April 29, 2024, 03:17:59 AM »

If it wasn't for the Signing of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 you would not even be using this language. Security means alarm systems, antivirus, etc. Fuck this other meaning brought in by old farts that never even saw a computer in their whole life. That shit is not applicable at all to cryptocurrencies.

I can use all your arguments against you. Bitcoin was pre-mined by Satoshi because he was the only one dominating the hashrate and hence he could mine over a million BTC in record time. That's 4.76% of the total BTC supply. Meanwhile the ETH foundation holds just 0.3% of all ETH in circulation. That's 3x less than Saylor's percentage of BTC and almost 16x less than Satoshi. Talk about being decentralized - WOW! Once the masses find out this secret along with the fact that it gives yield and is sometimes deflationary they should jump on it! LOL - who am I kidding. They will follow the FUD until the narrative changes.

The SEC's job is to protect investors. That's it. ETH is not a security at all. The "profit on the work of others" does not apply to stakers. And I can throw that argument at you and Saylor as well. You're doing nothing to develop Bitcoin, you're not maintaining it, you're not mining it. You expect the price to go up so you can profit (based on the work of others). See, I did it! I summed your shit up perfectly!  ;D

I think you are really confusing concepts here Obsidian. (Can I suggest maybe watching a few less youtube videos, and actually doing some legal research).

The term "securities" as it applies to the law the SEC enforces, has nothing to do with IT security. Rather is has to do with laws that govern fungible and publicly tradable financial instruments.

You are also misunderstanding what the role of the SEC is. It is not "to protect investors". Indeed, investors can, and do, make bad investments every day with SEC compliant securities. The SEC makes no decision on the merit of any investment. More accurate would be to say that the SEC's role is to regulate securities markets, as it is required by law to do, (and that this in turn, hopefully, will "protect" investors, to the extent that certain the many aspects of securities' laws need to be complied with). So, the SEC could not care less if BTC goes up or down. But it cares deeply, if you were to attempt to list any security in an unregulated matter (as occurred with almost all crypto tokens). Its not a matter of whether you like the law or not - the law is the law and the SEC enforces.

So, you don't need to make any argument against me. I am just telling you what the law is.

As for BTC being "pre-mined", it wasn't. All of us, Satoshi included, had to put in equal work to mine Sats. That was the case from day #1 of the code going public. And that differs from ETH any many others, whereby the creators of what was essentially a tech company, raised funds for their "projects" (businesses), by issuing tradable "tokens" (shares) and retaining a share of these shares for themselves, selling on the market for for BTC or fait over time.

With BTC, the work is done by the miners. They have converted energy into Sats. And those Sats can the be bought and traded by others. And this was the case from day #1. No security here - rather a digital commodity.

As for your comments about staking and deflationary etc, all this is a scam. If I sell you a piece of shit, and then tell you its "good value" because in a few days I will give you a brand new more of a turd for free, that does not change the fact that the underlying thing you have is a piece of shit. Similarly, if I told you that that piece of shit was going to gradually decompose, and become a small piece of shit over time... it doesn't matter - its still a piece of shit! Its really a very obvious marketing illusion.

Eth, can and will, be replaced any an infinite number of "alts" to Eth. However, there is not any "alt" to BTC - there can't be, as BTC cannot be recreated, nor can it be uncreated. It takes a while for people to truly understand, but eventually they do...

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10885 on: April 29, 2024, 03:20:13 AM »
They have been showing zero flows for the past 3 trading days.

Yes, so in fact they HAVE been reporting they flows (as all BTC ETFs are required to do). Sometimes those flows are positive, sometimes they are neutral, sometimes they are negative. This is how all ETFs work, BTC EFT's being no exception. Last 3 days IBIT has had no "inflows" (nor "outflows") of any significance (so basically neutral over these last 3 days).

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10886 on: April 29, 2024, 03:46:32 AM »
Broader market is looking pretty messed up right now. Gonna need the JPowell and/or Yellen to pull another rabbit out of the hat pretty soon, otherwise it's gonna be a long sideways chop this summer and possibly longer.

We went parabolic and peaked.

You can see the buyer clusters. It all rests on the shoulders of the ETF buyers to hold 58k. Everyone is certain ETF Buyers are diamond hands. 🙌

There is a lot of anger and confusion around. The kind that needs layers to get rid of.

Amerian Muscle

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10887 on: April 29, 2024, 09:22:00 AM »
😂

It can feel a bit like that at times.
still I read in credible sources that 120k is to be expected in 24 months. I have no reason to doubt these sources majorly. So lets take off 20% to be conservative and we get 100k

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10888 on: April 29, 2024, 10:27:13 AM »
We went parabolic and peaked.

You can see the buyer clusters. It all rests on the shoulders of the ETF buyers to hold 58k. Everyone is certain ETF Buyers are diamond hands. 🙌

There is a lot of anger and confusion around. The kind that needs layers to get rid of. But some of the ETF buyers, and especially those who by general ETFs of which the BTC ETF is a small part off, will naturally be long term passive hodlers (and indeed accumulators) over time.


No buyer is an absolute diamond hand. If they were, there would be no trading except for newly mined coin. WHat we do know, is that many of the ETF buyers will be passive and "sticky", and many will slowly accumulate and hodl for decades to come, especially as the BTC ETFs get incorporated into small portions of more general asset ETFs.

As for holding 58K, all these short term predictions are really non-sensical, as no-one can predict these with certainty. However, what we an do is conclude that is likely BTC will rise for ever, and if so, we simply stack and hodl.

Further, looking at this in USD (which is among the least worst performing of all global currencies) vs BTC is rather US-centric, when you consider that the USD has itself gained against almost all global currencies over the last year. Against most global currencies, BTC is close to, or at the absolute peak, and even against the USD (which has outperformed most global currencies) BTC is up over 100% in just the last year alone.

You are looking at, and being distracted by, micro-parabolas. If you were to zoom out, to say, 2030, you would just see one massive parabolic adoption curve, just like if you zoomed in/our on Microsoft, Amazon, or Google.

Amerian Muscle

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10889 on: April 29, 2024, 11:22:10 AM »
Received a suspicious metamask email regarding kyc before 2042. Legit or ruse?

Griffith

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10890 on: April 29, 2024, 11:30:43 AM »
2 years from now btc will be over 100k

More like this year.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10891 on: April 29, 2024, 12:19:52 PM »
I think you are really confusing concepts here Obsidian. (Can I suggest maybe watching a few less youtube videos, and actually doing some legal research).

The term "securities" as it applies to the law the SEC enforces, has nothing to do with IT security. Rather is has to do with laws that govern fungible and publicly tradable financial instruments.

You are also misunderstanding what the role of the SEC is. It is not "to protect investors". Indeed, investors can, and do, make bad investments every day with SEC compliant securities. The SEC makes no decision on the merit of any investment. More accurate would be to say that the SEC's role is to regulate securities markets, as it is required by law to do, (and that this in turn, hopefully, will "protect" investors, to the extent that certain the many aspects of securities' laws need to be complied with). So, the SEC could not care less if BTC goes up or down. But it cares deeply, if you were to attempt to list any security in an unregulated matter (as occurred with almost all crypto tokens). Its not a matter of whether you like the law or not - the law is the law and the SEC enforces.

So, you don't need to make any argument against me. I am just telling you what the law is.

As for BTC being "pre-mined", it wasn't. All of us, Satoshi included, had to put in equal work to mine Sats. That was the case from day #1 of the code going public. And that differs from ETH any many others, whereby the creators of what was essentially a tech company, raised funds for their "projects" (businesses), by issuing tradable "tokens" (shares) and retaining a share of these shares for themselves, selling on the market for for BTC or fait over time.

With BTC, the work is done by the miners. They have converted energy into Sats. And those Sats can the be bought and traded by others. And this was the case from day #1. No security here - rather a digital commodity.

As for your comments about staking and deflationary etc, all this is a scam. If I sell you a piece of shit, and then tell you its "good value" because in a few days I will give you a brand new more of a turd for free, that does not change the fact that the underlying thing you have is a piece of shit. Similarly, if I told you that that piece of shit was going to gradually decompose, and become a small piece of shit over time... it doesn't matter - its still a piece of shit! Its really a very obvious marketing illusion.

Eth, can and will, be replaced any an infinite number of "alts" to Eth. However, there is not any "alt" to BTC - there can't be, as BTC cannot be recreated, nor can it be uncreated. It takes a while for people to truly understand, but eventually they do...
One of the SEC's main focus is investor protection:

The SEC has a three-part mission: to protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets; and facilitate capital formation.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Securities_and_Exchange_Commission

But it is corrupt as are many government departments. Gensler met with fellow tribesman SBF many times. And did nothing to prevent that scam which ended up hurting investors. Which is why a few politicians want him axed.

Satoshi was the first guy to mine BTC quickly, over 1 million. If there were many other miners it would not have been possible to accrue that many BTC because of difficulty adjustments. It also took time for word to get out and other people to start mining BTC. So yeah, whomever Satoshi is dominated the hashrate and hence got all that BTC. So it is basically no different than pre-mining.

https://eklitzke.org/how-many-bitcoins-did-satoshi-nakamoto-mine

The genesis block was mined on January 3, 2009. For the next six months or so, the Bitcoin hash rate stayed very constant, at around 5 MH/s. There was a dip in network hash rate for a short time after that, and then the hash rate started picking up quickly around Christmas. I've included a few extra months of 2010 data to show how dramatic the increase in hash rate was.

Note that a hashrate of 5 MH/s is extremely low. I have two RTX 3090 cards and they each have a hash rate of 120 MH/s. Even the 1070TI comes in at around 34 MH/s. This means one of my RTX 3090s can hash 24 times the total hash rate of the early BTC when Satoshi mined it!

Most of the blocks mined in 2009 have very few transactions in them. The majority of them just include a single coinbase transaction, which is the required transaction encoding payout of the block reward to the miner. Coupled with the anemic hash rate, we can speculate that there were very few users of Bitcoin in 2009. It's known that a few enthusiasts like [Hal Finney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Finney_(computer_scientist)) (the first user of Bitcoin) downloaded and ran Satoshi's code. Hal previously stated that he actually mined one of the first 100 blocks. But there's no evidence that any of these early adopters, including Hal, did much more than run the code for a short time before losing interest.

In fact, things were so dire that for most of 2009 blocks were being mined much slower than the 10 minute block interval target. You can click "Block Interval" in the chart legend to see the average block interval in each period. The goal block interval is 600 seconds. It wasn't until the final difficulty period in 2009 (which started at block 32256, mined Dec 30, 2009) that the difficulty target had to be adjusted upwards from the minimum value.

Based on the above, I find it reasonable to assume that most of the hashing power in the first year or so of Bitcoin's existence came from Satoshi Nakamoto. If real users were actually joining and leaving Bitcoin, one would expect the hash rate to have varied a lot more, particularly in the first six months. Starting in early 2010 the network hash rate does start increasing rapidly, suggesting that's when the real serious users started using (and mining) Bitcoin.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10892 on: April 29, 2024, 12:29:26 PM »
As for your comments about staking and deflationary etc, all this is a scam. If I sell you a piece of shit, and then tell you its "good value" because in a few days I will give you a brand new more of a turd for free, that does not change the fact that the underlying thing you have is a piece of shit. Similarly, if I told you that that piece of shit was going to gradually decompose, and become a small piece of shit over time... it doesn't matter - its still a piece of shit! Its really a very obvious marketing illusion.

Eth, can and will, be replaced any an infinite number of "alts" to Eth. However, there is not any "alt" to BTC - there can't be, as BTC cannot be recreated, nor can it be uncreated. It takes a while for people to truly understand, but eventually they do...
That's your opinion. You're saying it is a piece of shit. That does not mean it's a piece of shit. An entire industry has been built on Ethereum. Ethereum's influence on the crypto sphere totally dwarves Bitcoin in every way. Bitcoin developers are now pushing for DEFI and Smart Contracts - they are copycats. It's the Ethereum developers that are responsible for DEFI / Smart Contracts. And many of them were involved with the early Bitcoin, including Vitalik.

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/24/op-cat-proposal-to-bring-smart-contracts-to-bitcoin-finally-gets-a-bip-number/

BTC can be recreated, what the hell are you talking about. It's just code. And nothing can be uncreated - unless you have a time machine. If you create a sand castle on a beach it has been created. You can destroy it, but that initial creation cannot be undone.

I am not against Bitcoin. I think all these platforms and networks need to work together. What I don't like about BTC Maxi's is they want to sic the SEC and government on all other crypto projects so Bitcoin can be made the defacto winner. Make it an even playing field. Stop trying to sic your dogs on other people and if you come out on top in the end then congrats to you.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10893 on: April 29, 2024, 12:29:30 PM »
One of the SEC's main focus is investor protection:

The SEC has a three-part mission: to protect investors; maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets; and facilitate capital formation.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Securities_and_Exchange_Commission

But it is corrupt as are many government departments. Gensler met with fellow tribesman SBF many times. And did nothing to prevent that scam which ended up hurting investors. Which is why a few politicians want him axed.

Satoshi was the first guy to mine BTC quickly, over 1 million. If there were many other miners it would not have been possible to accrue that many BTC because of difficulty adjustments. It also took time for word to get out and other people to start mining BTC. So yeah, whomever Satoshi is dominated the hashrate and hence got all that BTC. So it is basically no different than pre-mining.

https://eklitzke.org/how-many-bitcoins-did-satoshi-nakamoto-mine

The genesis block was mined on January 3, 2009. For the next six months or so, the Bitcoin hash rate stayed very constant, at around 5 MH/s. There was a dip in network hash rate for a short time after that, and then the hash rate started picking up quickly around Christmas. I've included a few extra months of 2010 data to show how dramatic the increase in hash rate was.

Note that a hashrate of 5 MH/s is extremely low. I have two RTX 3090 cards and they each have a hash rate of 120 MH/s. Even the 1070TI comes in at around 34 MH/s. This means one of my RTX 3090s can hash 24 times the total hash rate of the early BTC when Satoshi mined it!

Most of the blocks mined in 2009 have very few transactions in them. The majority of them just include a single coinbase transaction, which is the required transaction encoding payout of the block reward to the miner. Coupled with the anemic hash rate, we can speculate that there were very few users of Bitcoin in 2009. It's known that a few enthusiasts like [Hal Finney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Finney_(computer_scientist)) (the first user of Bitcoin) downloaded and ran Satoshi's code. Hal previously stated that he actually mined one of the first 100 blocks. But there's no evidence that any of these early adopters, including Hal, did much more than run the code for a short time before losing interest.

In fact, things were so dire that for most of 2009 blocks were being mined much slower than the 10 minute block interval target. You can click "Block Interval" in the chart legend to see the average block interval in each period. The goal block interval is 600 seconds. It wasn't until the final difficulty period in 2009 (which started at block 32256, mined Dec 30, 2009) that the difficulty target had to be adjusted upwards from the minimum value.

Based on the above, I find it reasonable to assume that most of the hashing power in the first year or so of Bitcoin's existence came from Satoshi Nakamoto. If real users were actually joining and leaving Bitcoin, one would expect the hash rate to have varied a lot more, particularly in the first six months. Starting in early 2010 the network hash rate does start increasing rapidly, suggesting that's when the real serious users started using (and mining) Bitcoin.

You are right about all of this, although I would say the "protection" mandate of the SEC, is to protect by enforcing the applicable laws, using the powers given to them.

You may consider BTC's early blocks as being a distinction from a pre-mine, but technically there is a difference. The code was public, and anyone could in theory mine, and just like today, some mine, and other don't, even though all in theory can. So I see the "argument", but again, technically its wrong to state that ETH and BTC are the same on this basis, even though in practice you may think this distinction is unfair. Lets see what the courts rule.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10894 on: April 29, 2024, 12:40:33 PM »
You are right about all of this, although I would say the "protection" mandate of the SEC, is to protect by enforcing the applicable laws, using the powers given to them.

You may consider BTC's early blocks as being a distinction from a pre-mine, but technically there is a difference. The code was public, and anyone could in theory mine, and just like today, some mine, and other don't, even though all in theory can. So I see the "argument", but again, technically its wrong to state that ETH and BTC are the same on this basis, even though in practice you may think this distinction is unfair. Lets see what the courts rule.
I am not saying they are the same. But it is really semantics. And the reality is most of my Ethereum I acquired via mining. Lots of sweat equity went into it. We suffered through hot days, two outlets melted over the years, I had to build all the rigs which is a lot more work than buying a Bitcoin ASIC miner and using it out of the box. Motherboards, hard drives, power supplies, graphics cards, memory, cases, cables, tables. All that shit had to be bought, assembled, etc. One of my typical rigs had 4 power supplies. I used a mother board that could accept multiple power supplies but even then I had to split the power supply cables to get to 4 units. It is a lot more technical than setting up an ASIC miner.

So how is the SEC going to declare ETH a security now after all that time and many people who mined it. It didn't help that Gensler himself stated Ethereum was a commodity, along with Hinman. The time has gone to try and declare ETH a security. They also approved ETH Futures to trade on commodity exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. They and the "Media" are playing games at this point. Probably to allow entities to accumulate ETH at lower entry points.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10895 on: April 29, 2024, 12:42:53 PM »
That's your opinion. You're saying it is a piece of shit. That does not mean it's a piece of shit. An entire industry has been built on Ethereum. Ethereum's influence on the crypto sphere totally dwarves Bitcoin in every way. Bitcoin developers are now pushing for DEFI and Smart Contracts - they are copycats. It's the Ethereum developers that are responsible for DEFI / Smart Contracts. And many of them were involved with the early Bitcoin, including Vitalik.

https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/04/24/op-cat-proposal-to-bring-smart-contracts-to-bitcoin-finally-gets-a-bip-number/

BTC can be recreated, what the hell are you talking about. It's just code. And nothing can be uncreated - unless you have a time machine. If you create a sandcastle on a beach it has been created. You can destroy it, but that initial creation cannot be undone.

I am not against Bitcoin. I think all these platforms and networks need to work together. What I don't like about BTC Maxi's is they want to sic the SEC and government on all other crypto projects so Bitcoin can be made the defacto winner. Make it an even playing field. Stop trying to sic your dogs on other people and if you come out on top in the end then congrats to you.

I don't disagree on the technological innovation of Eth, but the wrapping of this tech into a token, which at least initially was marketed and intended to represent a replacement for money, competing with the purpose of Bitcoin, was disingenuous. And of course now we can all see that the frequent change of code of ETH, let alone its move from proof of work to proof of stake, and the constant manipulation of its issuances etc confirms its failure here to be an "alt" to BTC. But at the time, in the first cycle, this is how Eth was promoted by its founders.

But yes, we do gradually take technological innovations, and then build these on the base layer of the perfect money. This should be obvious, and how it should be, and how it will be.

OK, yes in "theory" you could re-create another version of Bitcoin. In practice we know this has been tried hundreds of thousands of times. And failed each time.

BTC maxies don't mind other "crypto projects" per se, even though the vast vast majority of them are scams. But they just find it disingenuous for such ventures to pretend that they are an alternative to BTC (although most have now given up making such claims, realizing its pointless and just go straight to being memes, or pretending to be related to the latest trend such as AI). And they don't particularly like to see what are essentially very dodgy companies issuing unregistered securities, scamming on the affinity of Bitcoin, when in reality they are entirely fundamentally different.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10896 on: April 29, 2024, 12:53:38 PM »
I am not saying they are the same. But it is really semantics. And the reality is most of my Ethereum I acquired via mining. Lots of sweat equity went into it. We suffered through hot days, two outlets melted over the years, I had to build all the rigs which is a lot more work than buying a Bitcoin ASIC miner and using it out of the box. Motherboards, hard drives, power supplies, graphics cards, memory, cases, cables, tables. All that shit had to be bought, assembled, etc. One of my typical rigs had 4 power supplies. I used a mother board that could accept multiple power supplies but even then I had to split the power supply cables to get to 4 units. It is a lot more technical than setting up an ASIC miner.

So how is the SEC going to declare ETH a security now after all that time and many people who mined it. It didn't help that Gensler himself stated Ethereum was a commodity, along with Hinman. The time has gone to try and declare ETH a security. They also approved ETH Futures to trade on commodity exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. They and the "Media" are playing games at this point. Probably to allow entities to accumulate ETH at lower entry points.

No doubt you put in a lot of hard work. Just like people put a lot of hard work into acquiring investment in Bernie Madoff's fund, or acquiring XRP tokens, by trading their hard earned cash. You actually put in proof of work, and not only did they pre-mine you, but then they changed the protocol on you, and indeed also the monetary policy.

The issue here, is whether seemingly illegally issued tokens, can nevertheless become shares which can be legitimately traded on exchanges. Your best hope, I think, is that the SEC punishes the issuers, settles with them, but allows the tokens to trade. It is possible this would happen (eg Vitalik gets a Billion dollar fine and hands over x amount to Eth to the US Government), maybe serves some token time in prison for fraud and securities violations (no pun intended) and then all goes ahead with Eth being converted into a listed company after extensive re-organization. There are some easily examples of such agreements with illegal issuers, EOS I think being one. So there is hope. Same with Ripple - I think the SEC wants around 5B to settle and then also some jail time to be served? But to go so far as to allow something with these origins to be traded as a security in an ETF is going a step too far I think. (Again, nothing personal view, but just applying the law as I see it - its just too much a perversion of the law, and an absolute moral hazard.

Lets see. I have a little ETH, but would likely still be more harmed by dilution of BTC by ETH, than I would be benefitting from ETH being allowed into a US ETF. So, for me personally, I would prefer to see BTC as the only ETF for a long time ahead. The other big problem is where to draw the line. If ETH is legitimized, then arguably the floodgates are opened to any issuer of securities to circumvent the SEC.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10897 on: April 29, 2024, 02:03:54 PM »
No doubt you put in a lot of hard work. Just like people put a lot of hard work into acquiring investment in Bernie Madoff's fund, or acquiring XRP tokens, buy trading their hard earned cash. The issue here, is whether seemingly illegally issued tokens, can nevertheless become shares which can be legitimately traded on exchanges. Your best hope, I think, is that the SEC punishes the issuers, settles with them, but allows the tokens to trade. Its possible this would happen (eg Vitalik gets a Billion dollar fine and hands over x amount to Eth to the US Government), maybe serves some token time (no pun intended) and then all goes ahead. There are some easily examples of such agreements with illegal issuers, EOS I think being one. So there is hope. Same with Ripple - I think the SEC wants around 5B to settle? But to go so far as to allow something with these origins to be traded as a security in an ETF is going a step too far I think. (Again, nothing personal view, but just applying the law as I see it).

Lets see. I have a little ETH, but would likely still be more harmed by dilution of BTC by ETH, than I would be benefitting from ETH being allowed into a US ETF. So, for me personally, I would prefer to see BTC as the only ETF for a long time ahead. The other big problem is where to draw the line. If ETH is legitimized, then arguably the floodgates are opened to any issuer of securities to circumvent the SEC.
THE SEC is like the Mafia's enforcer shaking down businesses for "protection". Should just be shutdown IMO. Stop trying to babysit people. Let the chips fall where they may. When have they ever protected anyone? What's their purpose if they are not protecting investors? To harass and fine? I don't get it. They need to offer me as a tax payer something of value. How have I or you ever benefitted from them? Have they made me money? Some of my taxes went to the SEC. I want a return on my investment!

The SEC is also only in the USA. That's one country amongst many. The US population is a little over 333 million. That's around 4.1% of the world's current almost 8 billion. Why should the rest care about whatever the USA decides? Hong Kong already approved Spot ETH funds. The SEC will only be hurting US investors. The rest of the world will be fine. And last I checked, the USA is basically bankrupt. The influence it will have over crypto markets will severely diminish in the not too distant future.

If anything, Bitcoin, Ethereum and many other cryptos will be a life raft for US citizens. Almost all crypto tokens are better than the US dollar.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/


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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10898 on: April 29, 2024, 02:16:37 PM »
No buyer is an absolute diamond hand. If they were, there would be no trading except for newly mined coin. WHat we do know, is that many of the ETF buyers will be passive and "sticky", and many will slowly accumulate and hodl for decades to come, especially as the BTC ETFs get incorporated into small portions of more general asset ETFs.

As for holding 58K, all these short term predictions are really non-sensical, as no-one can predict these with certainty. However, what we an do is conclude that is likely BTC will rise for ever, and if so, we simply stack and hodl.

Further, looking at this in USD (which is among the least worst performing of all global currencies) vs BTC is rather US-centric, when you consider that the USD has itself gained against almost all global currencies over the last year. Against most global currencies, BTC is close to, or at the absolute peak, and even against the USD (which has outperformed most global currencies) BTC is up over 100% in just the last year alone.

You are looking at, and being distracted by, micro-parabolas. If you were to zoom out, to say, 2030, you would just see one massive parabolic adoption curve, just like if you zoomed in/our on Microsoft, Amazon, or Google.

USD is the measurement of performance. Currency decline downside is capped to -99% whereas upside is uncapped. Am I more excited about a -10% negative currency swing vs USD or the +400% gain from timing entry to exit 🤔 currency decline is not a bragging point for performance lol

I’m not sure I’d call providing the target price 2yrs in advance short term. In fact that is retail’s perfect scenario to time the market.

Why is it you can brag post about dip buying on a short term timeframe of days yet when I give market bottom and top 2yrs in advance I am the one distracted on ‘short term’ 🤷‍♂️ ?  We got to my target price from 2yrs ago that I waited 2yrs for, hooray.

Your Maxi thinking you keep applying to shitcoins doesn’t work. You will get torn up by people like me who time the market with bigger bags and keep slamming the price of 💩 coins anytime it gets near a peak 😉

My timing has allowed me to enjoy the last 2yrs watching the narrative and data manipulation to direct retail mentality and behaviour. The narratives are BS but hey, it makes money 😀

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10899 on: April 30, 2024, 02:47:12 AM »
USD is the measurement of performance. Currency decline downside is capped to -99% whereas upside is uncapped. Am I more excited about a -10% negative currency swing vs USD or the +400% gain from timing entry to exit 🤔 currency decline is not a bragging point for performance lol

I’m not sure I’d call providing the target price 2yrs in advance short term. In fact that is retail’s perfect scenario to time the market.

Why is it you can brag post about dip buying on a short term timeframe of days yet when I give market bottom and top 2yrs in advance I am the one distracted on ‘short term’ 🤷‍♂️ ?  We got to my target price from 2yrs ago that I waited 2yrs for, hooray.

Your Maxi thinking you keep applying to shitcoins doesn’t work. You will get torn up by people like me who time the market with bigger bags and keep slamming the price of 💩 coins anytime it gets near a peak 😉

My timing has allowed me to enjoy the last 2yrs watching the narrative and data manipulation to direct retail mentality and behaviour. The narratives are BS but hey, it makes money 😀

For any economist, mathematician, or Bitcoiner, our measure is BTC vs purchasing power (not BTC vs USD, or any other declining currency). So, for example if BTC has risen 12% to the USD, but the USD has during that time devalued 10% in purchasing power, you have actually only made a 2% gain in purchasing power when measured in BTC. Comparing to a declining currency is an illusion, much like it appears you are going forwards in a car, when in fact you are stationary and another car next to you is going backwards.

I buy any dip, because it gives me an opportunity to own more of a finite number of sats, which I am confident will go up in value over time. This is what I do, and indeed what we should all be doing. I care little about short-term upward movements, as I am a hodler. I don't intend to sell.

if you, or anyone, could reliably pick short term trends whether in BTC, or in shitcoins, you would be a billionaire. You may believe you can reliably and consistently do this, but you, and almost all people, cannot, much we all wish we could.