'We’ve got a Latino problem': Dems fret midterm turnout in key House districtsA crucial part of the Democratic coalition is not feeling the same enthusiasm for the midterms as other groups.
SAN ANTONIO — Voters are more invested in the 2018 elections than in any recent midterm. But a critical piece of the Democratic coalition — Latino voters — is lagging behind other groups in its interest in the 2018 campaign, an enthusiasm gap that could tip the scales in key battleground House districts.
Latinos make up at least 20 percent of the population in more than a dozen districts that top Democrats' House target list in 2018 — more than half of the 23 seats Democrats must flip to take over the House. But a POLITICO analysis of over 20,000 interviews conducted with battleground-district voters by Siena College and The New York Times shows that Latinos rated themselves less likely to vote than both white and black voters.
Two-thirds of white voters surveyed said they were “almost certain” to vote — the highest rating on a 5-point scale — as did 61 percent of African-Americans.
But only 55 percent of the Latinos polled said the same about their plans for next month’s midterm elections, according to POLITICO’s analysis.
The findings — echoed by other public and private polling from groups like Latino Decisions, a Latino-focused polling and research firm whose latest survey showed that more than half of Latino voters have yet to be contacted by a campaign or party group ahead of the midterms — could have an outsize effect in a crescent of battleground House districts running from Texas to the West Coast, where the Hispanic vote is especially important.
Democratic operatives are concerned that Latino engagement is “better than it was in 2014, but not as strong as 2016, and we need closer to 2016 enthusiasm level to flip many of these seats in Texas, California, Florida and Nevada,” said Josh Ulibarri, a Democratic pollster who works on races throughout the country.
“Among Democrats, there continues to be a fear that we’re not doing enough to turn out Latinos,” Ulibarri continued. “We’ve got a Latino problem, and we continue to have a Latino problem.”
The problem could be particularly acute in California, where Democrats “should absolutely be worried about Latinos,” said Paul Mitchell, a nonpartisan data consultant. Latinos make up one-fifth to two-thirds of the population in seven contested California districts, making them “one of the most important factors for Democratic success,” Mitchell added.
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