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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Mayday on December 28, 2020, 06:04:38 PM
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We need an alternate thread to the BTC one.
This is to discuss the many financial topics of our current once in a lifetime pandemic global shutdowns.
Money supply, inflation, deflation, unemployment, sharemarkets, property, rentals, metals, crypto.
I have debated with a number of friends that the demise of the current debt system results in a meltup of asset prices as QE gets pumped into markets to stabilise.
I guess it’s somewhat at odds of a collapse...... but what about employment? Wages? The downward pressure on wages yet all financial markets are telling us we are having a gangbuster of a year.....
Does the middle class vanish? Will we see a widening of the wealth gap? Will universal basal income save the middle class? Do we see a collapse of the consumerism lifestyle?
Lots of things to discuss so fire away!
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Definitely a world wide war on the middle class happening right now. The "basic income" is a path towards governments controlling consumerism.
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Definitely a world wide war on the middle class happening right now. The "basic income" is a path towards governments controlling consumerism.
I am definitely middle class. This means war on me and mine. I don't like wars.
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I am definitely middle class. This means war on me and mine. I don't like wars.
Says a democrat. ::)
This is what you voted for.
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Definitely a world wide war on the middle class happening right now. The "basic income" is a path towards governments controlling consumerism.
A lot of work colleagues took 20% pay cuts when the pandemic started. A friend who is VP global sales for a major consumer business was chatting to me that their company made the same GP this financial year than the previous year.... my first comment was if they were going to pay people their full salary..... the answer was a very sheepish ‘no’......
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Says a democrat. ::)
This is what you voted for.
You do realize that I wasn't being entirely serious. I'm fine and I expect to continue to be fine. The last place I want to go in my head is somewhere that is full of negativity and hopelessness.
Just as when you (I presume), voted for Trump, I voted for change. I don't agree with the direction this great country of ours was headed over the last four years. If this were to continue, I suspect my family would leave and live elsewhere, where there is still some hope of something better. That would be a real shame since my ancestors helped get this 'experiment' started during the Revolutionary war. In other words, my family history is as old and even older than the U.S. is. Unlike Trump who is a third generation immigrant and a comparative newbie, my family helped settle this country.
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You do realize that I wasn't being entirely serious. I'm fine and I expect to continue to be fine. The last place I want to go in my head is somewhere that is full of negativity and hopelessness.
Just as when you (I presume), voted for Trump, I voted for change. I don't agree with the direction this great country of ours was headed over the last four years. If this were to continue, I suspect my family would leave and live elsewhere, where there is still some hope of something better. That would be a real shame since my ancestors helped get this 'experiment' started during the Revolutionary war. In other words, my family history is as old and even older than the U.S. is. Unlike Trump who is a third generation immigrant and a comparative newbie, my family helped settle this country.
This "experiment" has a Constitution, and no doubt your entire family line would have voted Trump given that the left has abandoned all that they would have believed in at a base level.
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when this launches it will b backed by the US dollar... in time, leading world currencies will fall in line - effectively entangling the worlds economic systems, as it were, into a single entity... an entity.. which will, over more time.. change form.. into a solitary, absolute system of economic function.
the only system of economic function on earth.
its a new game.
play ball - maintain some semblance of a life.
that hook, tho.. don't worry, them transaction fees will b reasonable... prices will b fair... biotech will b painless.
the illusion of convenience, at the cost of your soul.
sinister.
'Now is the time to create a new kind of digital infrastructure built on the foundation of blockchain technology.'
haha... indeed
https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/
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'Now is the time to create a new kind of digital infrastructure built on the foundation of blockchain technology.'
haha... indeed
https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/
Does China digital coin beat Diem on a global scale?
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Says a democrat. ::)
This is what you voted for.
No kidding
I’ve never seen a person so utterly unaware
Mask wearers are stealing from me
Devaluation of my dollar
Because the selling of fear is working on the feeble minded
I’ll just stack cash
And not digital
Other countries will take it
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You do realize that I wasn't being entirely serious. I'm fine and I expect to continue to be fine. The last place I want to go in my head is somewhere that is full of negativity and hopelessness.
Just as when you (I presume), voted for Trump, I voted for change. I don't agree with the direction this great country of ours was headed over the last four years. If this were to continue, I suspect my family would leave and live elsewhere, where there is still some hope of something better. That would be a real shame since my ancestors helped get this 'experiment' started during the Revolutionary war. In other words, my family history is as old and even older than the U.S. is. Unlike Trump who is a third generation immigrant and a comparative newbie, my family helped settle this country.
Your not going to be fine
You live in a rural shithole Oregon
People leaving in mass
No one will be there to subsidize you
Voted for change ? So a 47 year crooked old senile politician?
I’ve never seen a dumber uglier person
But we all know about facial symmetry and intelligence
Look in the mirror
You know what Is staring back
But your old enough you won’t live to see the real ugly times
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Are you Jeanette?
What are you taking about
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Says a democrat. ::)
This is what you voted for.
Exactly! These Libs vote and elect people who support policy that has proven time and again destructive to society. Everyone claims they don't trust the government yet the Libs give them more and more power increasing their size and influence. Biden made it clear he will raise taxes. Why do people want the government to have more of their money? Why do they think the government can spend money better than those who actually had to earn it?
What worries me is that after liberals ruin a state like New York and California where it's becoming intolerable to live, they move to conservative states like Texas and Georgia but they take their Liberal values with them and start turning those states blue.
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Reason why they are ok with raising taxes
Is they work for government
Or they pay little to no taxes
We will put up walls and gates and make it too expensive for them to get close
Game over for them
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Does China digital coin beat Diem on a global scale?
trillions of transactions a day, going thru diems blockchain crypto system, and only diems blockchain crypto system
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No kidding
I’ve never seen a person so utterly unaware
Mask wearers are stealing from me
Devaluation of my dollar
Because the selling of fear is working on the feeble minded
I’ll just stack cash
And not digital
Other countries will take it
If the dollar is being devalued, why would you "stack cash"?
Of course you should have a fair amount of liquidity for emergencies.
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Because I can hand a dollar to someone
Can’t hand over a Bitcoin when there is no power
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Because I can hand a dollar to someone
Can’t hand over a Bitcoin when there is no power
Sure you can. It's called a thumb drive.
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The $2,000 stimulus just passed in the House all but guarantees endless "helicopter money" as former Fed Chair Bernanke put it. They are intent on inflating the dollar into dust. The reality is all of 2020 was deflationary this shows the power of money creation.
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A lot of work colleagues took 20% pay cuts when the pandemic started. A friend who is VP global sales for a major consumer business was chatting to me that their company made the same GP this financial year than the previous year.... my first comment was if they were going to pay people their full salary..... the answer was a very sheepish ‘no’......
Did they also layoff people or did the pay cut prevent layoffs? If they’re a public company then making the same GP might have saved their stock from tumbling and thus having to layoff a ton of people.
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We need an alternate thread to the BTC one.
This is to discuss the many financial topics of our current once in a lifetime pandemic global shutdowns.
Money supply, inflation, deflation, unemployment, sharemarkets, property, rentals, metals, crypto.
I have debated with a number of friends that the demise of the current debt system results in a meltup of asset prices as QE gets pumped into markets to stabilise.
I guess it’s somewhat at odds of a collapse...... but what about employment? Wages? The downward pressure on wages yet all financial markets are telling us we are having a gangbuster of a year.....
Does the middle class vanish? Will we see a widening of the wealth gap? Will universal basal income save the middle class? Do we see a collapse of the consumerism lifestyle?
Lots of things to discuss so fire away!
Many good talking points. I'll jump in the game and address a few. Sorry for the long write-up, but I think I'll hit the most important details.
that the demise of the current debt system results in a meltup of asset prices as QE gets pumped into markets to stabilise
I think we are currently in one of the nation's biggest debt bubbles. We see these things emerge every 8-10 years or so. The last time we dealt with a debt bubble was back in 2008 with the subprime mortgage crisis that led to devastating effects on our economy and stock markets. Today, we have once again driven ourselves into a massive debt bubble on multiple fronts. Some of the factors contributing to this current debt bubble for both public & private spending is as follows:
- As a nation, the US Debt-to-GDP ratio is at a whopping 136% (as a nation we owe a lot more than we produce)
- Consumer debt in 2020 has hit an all-time high of $14.3 Trillion (whereas in 2008, the nominal high was $12.7 trillion)
- US corporate debt is at an all-time high of $10 Trillion, which is HUGE as it's essentially half of the US GDP of $21.16 trillion
- The government keeps monetizing the debt by selling US bonds to the Federal reserve in order to fund STIMULUS (which is just another term for printing and pumping money into the dollar currency, which furthermore leads to inflation)
Now, besides the many factors that are contributing towards our current US Debt Bubble, with regards to your statement regarding US assets losing value due to QE getting pumped into the market for stabilization purposes, let me address that. The Federal Reserve FUNDED the first Stimulus Bill/CARES act to the tune of $2.3 Trillion and now they are funding the second COVID Bill/Gov Spending Bill for a combined $2.3 Trillion. In other words, in just this year alone, the FEDS have loaned the US a total of $4.6 Trillion. These STIMULUS packages are just another way of dressing up Quantitative Easing (QE). We keep inflating the currency bubble, which will result in increases to the inflation rate. As a result of this, the value of our dollars will drop.
The flip side to this is that asset prices WILL in turn go up. A devaluating dollars helps support the prices of assets denominated in that currency. This gives the illusion of increasing wealth. In other words, if the value of the dollar goes down, the assets you were once able to buy with less of it, will undergo an increase in price because the nature of the asset itself hasn't changed (a great example of this is real estate during times on inflation, the actual value of real estate rises under these circumstances because the if the dollar is worth less, you have to pay more towards the real estate asset since it in itself hasn't lost any inherent value). The major caveat to this is that if our economy essentially crashes and we go into a depression, then YES, the value of all assets will suffer and drop, as people from all wealth brackets will try to massively unload these assets onto the market in exchange for currency/dollars in order to stay afloat with their basic needs (food, electricity, inelastic costs of living).
Does the middle class vanish?
Yes, there is a middle class determined by income levels, but a bigger argument can be made that the middle class is an illusion, a class with constant fluidity, dare I say a floating yardstick for classification. The only true classes that are constant are rich vs poor. In this Capitalistic system, the current tax code and federal government only helps the RICH & POOR. The middle class in the current state of affairs is the odd ball in the middle, the pimple that gets popped. The middle class helps to fund the lifestyles of the rich and poor. The middle class is the workforce for the rich & poor. The middle class is the hardest taxed demographic that helps to fund socialist US programs (welfare, medicaid, medicare, farm subsidies, corporate bailouts, social security, unemployment etc). In all honesty, it's the worst class you can be in. If you're a W2 employee making within the range of income that classifies you as middle class, I feel for you. I feel for you because you are likely an incredibly hard worker and the IRS is taxing you the hardest.
Will we see a widening of the wealth gap?
This has already happened over the course of many years, but has further widened during the pandemic of this year. Look to what happened after the first CARES ACT. Following the CARES ACT, the $1,200 checks sent out to the poor were merely chump change compared to the billions in tax breaks the CARES Act handed out to the country’s wealthiest. If anything, this year has magnified the widening wealth gap and made it much more obvious.
Will universal basal income save the middle class?
No. I think it will likely cause the idea of a middle class to fade away and desensitize Americans to the idea of a socialist practice.
Do we see a collapse of the consumerism lifestyle?
No. One thing I've realized when traveling throughout the world is that Americans are addicted to spending and consumerism lifestyle. John Steinbeck once said, "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires". That continues to hold true. Think about what all the poor and low middle class of America did after getting their hefty one time $1,200 checks followed by their $600/week unemployment benefits. Many of these assholes went on a spending spree, literally buying shit they didn't need, all because they were doing that on free money handed out to them by the US government. As a result of this bullshit, those same people are now clamoring hard for the second stimulus to pass. These are the people that perpetually live paycheck-to-paycheck. So as long as these types of people have no sense of personal fiscal responsibility, consumerism will thrive. People will make peace with the fact that instead of stocking their pantries with food to last them a few weeks, they'd much rather stock up on Air Jordans and a few pieces of Jewelry.
The moral of my story here is that I firmly believe the USA is en route to the biggest economic crash of all time. I think we could very well beat out the great depression at the rate that we are going. If you're curious as to why I see that likely happening, let me know and I'll write you another paragraph or two.
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So whats the point of "stacking cash" when its worthless?
Whats the point of having any cash on hand at all when $1 with be worth $.01 soon? and you'll need $500 to buy a loaf of bread?
must be a better place for the cash now and then convert it back into USD as you need it..... no?
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The real estate market is hotter now than during the scam of 2008. Yet more people are jobless and are making less money. Talking about a bubble that will destroy the economy. There are so many disasters coming that our economy might survive one or two but not all. Just wait for the commercial reals estate crash.
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So whats the point of "stacking cash" when its worthless?
Whats the point of having any cash on hand at all when $1 with be worth $.01 soon? and you'll need $500 to buy a loaf of bread?
must be a better place for the cash now and then convert it back into USD as you need it..... no?
As an accountant, I'll gladly tackle this.
You pose a great question and have a very good point on hand. Why hold on to money if it will become useless in terms of its value?
The simplest answer is that in times of harsh inflation, there are some good ways to hedge against inflation. Having real estate on hand is one great hedge against inflation (as property values go up & so do rents during times on inflation) AND one of the other great hedges against inflation is having active DEBT. Look at it this way, if you owe $50K in debt today and tomorrow the inflation rate more than doubles, a few things will occur as a result on the increase to inflation rate. First, your debt (the dollar amount of it) will not change as a result of the inflation. Second, what will change is that your job/workplace will likely give you a salary/wage increase due to the rising cost of living by way of inflation. As a result of this, you will then be capable of paying that debt off in half the time. Using this principle, you can see one solid reason why holding onto cash is not a bad idea due to the ability you will then have to eradicate your private debt in the setting of rising inflation.
There are other ways to hedge against inflation. The various crypto currencies offer vehicles for hedging, but I will differ on commenting regarding those, as I honestly don't see evidence of inherent value to those types of currencies. I know many here will disagree, but I am an old school guy and like my assets to be real vs digital.
The once young and daring financial cowboy in me would think differently. If I were in my 30's today, my suggestion to those that are day traders or are tempted to dabble with Bitcoin would be to consider shorting bitcoin through a cryptocurrency margin trading platform. In other words, gamble with crypto's value on borrowed money and simply reap the rewards after taxes.
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History repeats itself over and over.
Nothing today hasn't happened before.
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SNIP
Great post!
Ok, so we have seen booms happen out of recessions and now with an eye watering amount of QE, an outcome of high inflation will inevitably hit assets.
So should we look to commodities for inflationary sign of when things are truly being increased by monetary devaluation? Use that as a leading indicator that the property market will follow in a short period?
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If the dollar is being devalued, why would you "stack cash"?
Of course you should have a fair amount of liquidity for emergencies.
Look for paper money and coins to become a thing of the past. Many of the retailers around here are refusing cash. It's card only. Tap it on the reader and your done. nobody touches anything.
Pay your monthly bills using automatic withdrawal and not a check contaminated with germs. About the only thing still requiring cash are lottery machines and I think the new ones here in Oregon let you use your debit card.
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Sure you can. It's called a thumb drive.
Which is dependent on what ?
Ding ding
We have another winner here !!
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As an accountant, I'll gladly tackle this.
You pose a great question and have a very good point on hand. Why hold on to money if it will become useless in terms of its value?
The simplest answer is that in times of harsh inflation, there are some good ways to hedge against inflation. Having real estate on hand is one great hedge against inflation (as property values go up & so do rents during times on inflation) AND one of the other great hedges against inflation is having active DEBT. Look at it this way, if you owe $50K in debt today and tomorrow the inflation rate more than doubles, a few things will occur as a result on the increase to inflation rate. First, your debt (the dollar amount of it) will not change as a result of the inflation. Second, what will change is that your job/workplace will likely give you a salary/wage increase due to the rising cost of living by way of inflation. As a result of this, you will then be capable of paying that debt off in half the time. Using this principle, you can see one solid reason why holding onto cash is not a bad idea due to the ability you will then have to eradicate your private debt in the setting of rising inflation.
There are other ways to hedge against inflation. The various crypto currencies offer vehicles for hedging, but I will differ on commenting regarding those, as I honestly don't see evidence of inherent value to those types of currencies. I know many here will disagree, but I am an old school guy and like my assets to be real vs digital.
The once young and daring financial cowboy in me would think differently. If I were in my 30's today, my suggestion to those that are day traders or are tempted to dabble with Bitcoin would be to consider shorting bitcoin through a cryptocurrency margin trading platform. In other words, gamble with crypto's value on borrowed money and simply reap the rewards after taxes.
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For the average person, having debt for big ticket items, such as real estate and automobiles makes sense, particularly when interest rates are low. Revolving account debt does not, IMO. The interest rate on these is comparatively exorbitant. There is one other way to stay a little ahead of the game. When I recently purchased a new high-end Ricar vacuum cleaner for around $1,100 after all the discounts, I financed it for 6 months at 0% interest with Synchrony Bank. The deal is that if you pay late or miss a payment, you'll be charged a stupid high interest rate retroactively. Simple foolproof solution is have the payments auto deducted a few days ahead of the due date and you just beat them at their own game.
When I bought my car in 2016, I could have paid cash, which I offered to do if they gave me a huge discount and which wasn't going to happen because I'd already bargained it down to a rock bottom price. So instead, I financed it for 60 months at 1.6% interest which amounts to a few dollars a month.
Having the highest possible credit rating saves you a ton of money. And it is so easy to do. But, it requires you to have a variety of debt.
With the exception of groceries, I pay for everything using one of three credit cards that all have either cash rewards or offer points which you can spend like cash. It delays paying for stuff for about a month, which doesn't mean much considering how much you earn in interest on a savings account unless it is a high yield account because you keep a sizable balance in it. What it does do, is keep your credit rating top drawer.
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Honda
Kia
Hyandai
Or daewoo
What car did you finance
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Ok, so we have seen booms happen out of recessions and now with an eye watering amount of QE, an outcome of high inflation will inevitably hit assets.
Piggybacking off my original post, I'll reiterate that with continuous QE + resulting increases in inflation, the price of assets will rise. Like I said before, when inflation rises, the value of the dollar decreases. As a result of this, assets (like real estate) will benefit from an increase to their prices. If the value of the dollar goes down, then the price of real estate must inversely go up, because you can't use the same monetary amount you used yesterday to buy the same real estate asset (in this two-sided equation, only one item lost value and it was the dollar). Now, in the case of VERY high inflation, the prices of assets (like real estate) will also go down, because many will unload their assets onto the market in order to liquidate and have more cash on hand for doomsday scenarios, but the likelihood of this is uncertain.
So should we look to commodities for inflationary sign of when things are truly being increased by monetary devaluation? Use that as a leading indicator that the property market will follow in a short period?
Well, we both know that commodities prices tend to rise when inflation is increasing. While we can keep an eye out for increasing commodity prices and even purchase commodities as a hedge against inflation, whether YOU think this is the best idea is a subjective argument.
In many respects, I tend to be a doom-and-gloomer when it comes to the future of our economy. While bullish financial cowboys will always find a way to find opportunity in a market that's now solely driven by fear and speculation, I instead apply technical analysis and realize that these patterns we are seeing today have occurred in similar fashion before. Plus, remember, as an accountant I side with exuberant levels of caution. As a result, I don't trade in the market, I merely invest in it (I'm an index fund guy, who also enjoys corp + gov bonds and hedges against inflation with real estate assets). The only debt I have is the debt I leverage to buy more real estate assets.
More important than my ultra cautious approach is what young men like yourself and others here think in terms of the future of our economy given what we are seeing right now. A odds maker would bet against the USA given what we are seeing, but what do you make of it all?
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China has over-whelming debt also.
A crash is definitely on the way. As to when it could happen...soon or in a few years, no one knows. It will happen.
The stock market is cyclical so a crash is always on the way. Expect it. Prepare for it.
Should you sell all your stock? No.
Should you have bonds, cash, perhaps some real estate? Yes.
Keep dry powder on hand.
Real estate also experiences boom and bust. Fortunes were made in the late 70s and early 80's in real estate when inflation was high.
Real estate is location dependent. Not all real estate markets appreciate.
(http://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/images/2020-12-23-BI-5-Mkt-to-GDP-Detrended-Recent.png)
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China has over-whelming debt also.
I don't completely agree with this statement, as the numbers would suggest different. China's debt-to-GDP ratio is 61.7% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/270329/national-debt-of-china-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/270329/national-debt-of-china-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/)). That's a very healthy ratio of debt vs what their gross domestic product is. The USA's debt to GDP ration is 136%, hence we owe more than we produce (https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287 (https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287)).
Granted, the counter-argument to this is that China has historically been the biggest cheaters of all time with many economic tricks employed to over-value their currency, boost up their GDP and garner advantages via trade by way of their exports.
A crash is definitely on the way. As to when it could happen soon or in a few years.
The stock market is cyclical so a crash is always on the way. Expect it. Prepare for it.
I agree with this 100%. Crashes have occurred in 1929, 1987, 2000, 2008 & 2020. I think we are in line for another crash, likely soon within the next year or two.
Real estate also experiences boom and bust. Fortunes were made in the late 70s and early 80's in real estate when inflation was high.
Agree again! The ultra wealthy and those with enough reserves on hand + very little debt WILL reap the benefits following the real estate bust. They will sweep up the overwhelming, low-priced supply of real estate once real estate goes BUST.
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Ive only seen real estate go bust in .01 percent of total market and thats detroit
I don't completely agree with this statement, as the numbers would suggest different. China's debt-to-GDP ratio is 61.7% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/270329/national-debt-of-china-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/270329/national-debt-of-china-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/)). That's a very healthy ratio of debt vs what their gross domestic product is. The USA's debt to GDP ration is 136%, hence we owe more than we produce (https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287 (https://www.thebalance.com/national-debt-by-year-compared-to-gdp-and-major-events-3306287)).
Granted, the counter-argument to this is that China has historically been the biggest cheaters of all time with many economic tricks employed to over-value their currency, boost up their GDP and garner advantages via trade by way of their exports.
I agree with this 100%. Crashes have occurred in 1929, 1987, 2000, 2008 & 2020. I think we are in line for another crash, likely soon within the next year or two.
Agree again! The ultra wealthy and those with enough reserves on hand + very little debt WILL reap the benefits following the real estate bust. They will sweep up the overwhelming, low-priced supply of real estate once real estate goes BUST.
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Ive only seen real estate go bust in .01 percent of total market and thats detroit
Hmm, do you not recall the effects of the 2008 recession when the housing market fell 33 percent?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/10/04/feature/10-years-later-how-the-housing-market-has-changed-since-the-crash/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/10/04/feature/10-years-later-how-the-housing-market-has-changed-since-the-crash/)
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Washington post
Lol
Truth !!!
Facts !!!
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Hmm, do you not recall the effects of the 2008 recession when the housing market fell 33 percent?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/10/04/feature/10-years-later-how-the-housing-market-has-changed-since-the-crash/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/10/04/feature/10-years-later-how-the-housing-market-has-changed-since-the-crash/)
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I disagree. No one can say in good faith it fell 33 percent , rent prices have been on a steady incline since 2000 since 1990,1980 ect to 2020. The numbers game you follow from your pc is B.S bro. House prices will remain robust. There was never a rent drop in 2008 nor did housing crash people got what they asked for people got what they paid for. The media hated bush in that era just bad publicity fear mongering
A psuedo crash was to give the economy a push start there were more vacant homes in that era due to people who couldnt afford but never a crash. They are trying to slow growth with covid because economy is doing well and more efficient
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Washington post
Lol
Truth !!!
Facts !!!
Would the following sources suit you better?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-you-waiting-for-house-prices-to-drop-during-the-next-recession-heres-why-you-could-have-a-very-a-long-wait-2020-02-07 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-you-waiting-for-house-prices-to-drop-during-the-next-recession-heres-why-you-could-have-a-very-a-long-wait-2020-02-07)
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/subprime-market-2008.asp (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/subprime-market-2008.asp)
https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/15/real_estate/underwater_borrowers_near_12million/index.htm (https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/15/real_estate/underwater_borrowers_near_12million/index.htm)
https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/corelogic-peak-totrough-final-030118.pdf (https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/corelogic-peak-totrough-final-030118.pdf)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kirandhillon/2014/08/01/heres-a-look-at-the-housing-market-eight-years-after-the-collapse-3/?sh=564b33e15385 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kirandhillon/2014/08/01/heres-a-look-at-the-housing-market-eight-years-after-the-collapse-3/?sh=564b33e15385)
All of those sources above show that housing prices fell upwards of 29% and beyond. If you have more reliable sources, by all means share, as I don't believe that I can't be wrong and I'm always open to new facts.
Short of online sources, the proof is in the pudding for those of us (myself included) who swept up 2 homes in Fort Lauderdale following the 2008 housing crisis. When those subprime loans went bust due to ARM mortgage rates, I swooped on in and purchased 2 bank foreclosed homes for close to 40% off. It was a very real phenomenon and could likely occur again.
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Its funny how the media can twist your mind into thinking that situation is bad, you attained 2 properties at a steal. While some likely bums got kicked out.
Would the following sources suit you better?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-you-waiting-for-house-prices-to-drop-during-the-next-recession-heres-why-you-could-have-a-very-a-long-wait-2020-02-07 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-you-waiting-for-house-prices-to-drop-during-the-next-recession-heres-why-you-could-have-a-very-a-long-wait-2020-02-07)
(https://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/corelogic-peak-totrough-final-030118.pdf)
Short of online sources, the proof is in the pudding for those of us (myself included) who swept up 2 homes in Fort Lauderdale following the 2008 housing crisis. When those subprime loans went bust due to ARM mortgage rates, I swooped on in and purchased 2 bank foreclosed homes for close to 40% off. It was a very real phenomenon and could likely occur again.
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Its funny how the media can twist your mind into thinking that situation is bad, you attained 2 properties at a steal. While some likely bums got kicked out.
Azizam,
It's not about the media. This is the world I live and work in. Many of my former clients had homes throughout the Southern States (Florida obviously included). When I had to do their taxes and show their losses, many of my clients had gone under and had to part ways with their homes for pennies. Florida just so happened to have many of these homes that went belly up, as it's a warm state with walking proximity to water and no income tax. It's a great spot.
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banks would rather every citizen be a property manager or landlord. Because they upkeep value of homes and cities while banks can relax and have a good day onemorerep. There is never a crash , only a shift of workload to the next owner
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banks would rather every citizen be a property manager or landlord. Because they upkeep value of homes and cities while banks can relax and have a good day onemorerep. There is never a crash , only a shift of workload to the next owner
I know this.
Homes w/ mortgages are revenue generating vehicles for banks. It's one of the best products banks can use as an intermediate for exchange between a bank & client. The bank wants to drown you in debt via a large loan, but it needs a carrot at the end of that stick to suck that client in. Put a home in the middle and there goes your carrot. Ultimately, the bank tends to own more of that property than the client and in turn the client keeps a fractional share of equity.
Ultimately, it's a win/win for banks. If your client goes bad on the loan, they keep the initial down payment, all the principal and interest payments made by the clients and the actual physical property (home) itself. The bank can then resell it in the market and still make a great profit. The game is very old. I know, because part of my portfolio is with cash flowing properties that I collect tax-free rents on due to depreciation. It's a great business for those wanting a solid investment, but it isn't easy to undertake without some level of training and a solid team (realtor, reasonable bank, property manager, real estate lawyers, contractors etc).
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Azizam,
It's not about the media. This is the world I live and work in. Many of my former clients had homes throughout the Southern States (Florida obviously included). When I had to do their taxes and show their losses, many of my clients had gone under and had to part ways with their homes for pennies. Florida just so happened to have many of these homes that went belly up, as it's a warm state with walking proximity to water and no income tax. It's a great spot.
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Do we adress Marty with Azizam these days? :D
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Do we adress Marty with Azizam these days? :D
It's just a term of endearment ;)
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I disagree. No one can say in good faith it fell 33 percent , rent prices have been on a steady incline since 2000 since 1990,1980 ect to 2020. The numbers game you follow from your pc is B.S bro. House prices will remain robust. There was never a rent drop in 2008 nor did housing crash people got what they asked for people got what they paid for. The media hated bush in that era just bad publicity fear mongering
A psuedo crash was to give the economy a push start there were more vacant homes in that era due to people who couldnt afford but never a crash. They are trying to slow growth with covid because economy is doing well and more efficient
a new poster for the '' marty champions '' account . . . ! !
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https://nationalinterest.org/blog/politics/us-economy-teetering-precipice-depression-175321
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this
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I disagree. No one can say in good faith it fell 33 percent , rent prices have been on a steady incline since 2000 since 1990,1980 ect to 2020. The numbers game you follow from your pc is B.S bro. House prices will remain robust. There was never a rent drop in 2008 nor did housing crash people got what they asked for people got what they paid for. The media hated bush in that era just bad publicity fear mongering
A psuedo crash was to give the economy a push start there were more vacant homes in that era due to people who couldnt afford but never a crash. They are trying to slow growth with covid because economy is doing well and more efficient
Reductions and gains in Real Estate, whether in sale prices or rents can be the result of a variety of issues. I don't know what the market is like where you live, but here in Oregon, mainly in the large cities there is a huge shortage of housing, particularly rental units. This shortage will continue as long as the population continues to grow rapidly, regardless of that happens with the economy.
In my neighborhood, the rare house that goes on the market often sells the same day or within a couple of days of it being listed. Bidding wars are common. Some houses sell for more than asking price. Believe it or not people are buying properties (houses) that sell in the millions of dollars and they are paying cash. It was reported recently in the Oregonian that two properties sold for more than $2,000,000 and the buyers paid cash.
Here are some facts and figures about the average cost of living to keep in mind before moving to PDX. Rent: the average cost to rent a 1-bedroom apartment is $1,430 and $1,770 for a 2-bedroom.
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It's just a term of endearment ;)
"1"
Ah , is it Persian?
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Ah , is it Persian?
Yes
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We need an alternate thread to the BTC one.
This is to discuss the many financial topics of our current once in a lifetime pandemic global shutdowns.
Money supply, inflation, deflation, unemployment, sharemarkets, property, rentals, metals, crypto.
I have debated with a number of friends that the demise of the current debt system results in a meltup of asset prices as QE gets pumped into markets to stabilise.
I guess it’s somewhat at odds of a collapse...... but what about employment? Wages? The downward pressure on wages yet all financial markets are telling us we are having a gangbuster of a year.....
Does the middle class vanish? Will we see a widening of the wealth gap? Will universal basal income save the middle class? Do we see a collapse of the consumerism lifestyle?
Lots of things to discuss so fire away!
The middle class of the U.S. was created as a result of the New Deal of the FDR administration which left no aspect of the country untouched. FDR in turn was pushed to implement the New Deal by the collective force of the working class which was organized and increasingly militant. The communist party, 2 socialist parties, a wave of unionization, and general strikes scared the ever-living crap out the capitalist class of the U.S. The power of finance was tamed and wealth inequality was diminished via heavy taxation of the uber wealthy and implementation of the Glass-Steagall act.
The past ~40 years have seen the rolling back of every vestige of the New Deal. Both political parties are corrupted and subservient to capital(Wall Street, deregulated and shadow banking, military/industrial/intelligence complex). The media is wholly owned to push neoliberal ideology (this includes Fox so-called News, btw). Unions are largely destroyed as less than 6% of the private sector is unionized. Privatization is pushed as the answer to all that ails us, e.g. why in the world are we waiting for privately owned drug companies to distribute the COVID vaccines whilst they work out sweet-heart deals to enrich themselves further.
In short, if we want a middle class to arise then we need to get active and force the powerful to concede.
UBI on the surface seems like a good idea, but ultimately leaves in place the capitalist system.
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On the topic of residential property, are there any bargain basement prices in areas like Las Vegas yet?
The GFC hit that area hard. Given it’s a pandemic, are they still heavily restricted in doing business?
Has anyone seen any flow on effect with the residential housing market?
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UBI on the surface seems like a good idea, but ultimately leaves in place the capitalist system.
The UBI becomes a step closer to socialism.
So the question becomes, which evil do people prefer? The course of destruction of your salary, job, home, everything you worked for and the requirement to start all over again?
Or do you sell your soul to the govt and accept UBI in that it will allow you to keep what you have.... but perhaps it closes the gap in how much one can progress in life.
If we choose UBI a question for one more rep is would someone decide to double down in debt against residential property with the assumption a boom happens once UBI and consumer inflation kick in?
There is also the consideration of what if they simply did a one time debasement of all currency? Hey everyone, add a zero to whatever currency you have. Those who own debt would effectively become kings.
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participation in crypto now, accelerates the infrastructure of diem.
there will be nowhere to go... no crypto.. metals, real estate commodities stocks.. bye bye
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On the topic of residential property, are there any bargain basement prices in areas like Las Vegas yet?
The GFC hit that area hard. Given it’s a pandemic, are they still heavily restricted in doing business?
Has anyone seen any flow on effect with the residential housing market?
No deals on anything you'd want to own right now.
Property is sky high due to low rates and relaxed guidelines....again.
Rural property is selling as soon as it's listed here(midwest) and rural land being split and new houses going up everywhere. I guess they all work for the govt. ??? :)
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The UBI becomes a step closer to socialism.
So the question becomes, which evil do people prefer? The course of destruction of your salary, job, home, everything you worked for and the requirement to start all over again?
Or do you sell your soul to the govt and accept UBI in that it will allow you to keep what you have.... but perhaps it closes the gap in how much one can progress in life.
If we choose UBI a question for one more rep is would someone decide to double down in debt against residential property with the assumption a boom happens once UBI and consumer inflation kick in?
There is also the consideration of what if they simply did a one time debasement of all currency? Hey everyone, add a zero to whatever currency you have. Those who own debt would effectively become kings.
The answer is they will do as much as possible to extract blood from the host without killing it. That's what parasites do. It's when they don't need the host that you have a problem.
Nobody is going to do anything - with $2 gas, low rates and DOW 30k...cheap calories and entertainment to scramble the common noggin. Nothing.
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The answer is they will do as much as possible to extract blood from the host without killing it. That's what parasites do. It's when they don't need the host that you have a problem.
Nobody is going to do anything - with $2 gas, low rates and DOW 30k...cheap calories and entertainment to scramble the common noggin. Nothing.
Agreed... but what is someone who is aware of the plan to do if there is no where safe to have any assets?
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The middle class of the U.S. was created as a result of the New Deal of the FDR administration which left no aspect of the country untouched. FDR in turn was pushed to implement the New Deal by the collective force of the working class which was organized and increasingly militant. The communist party, 2 socialist parties, a wave of unionization, and general strikes scared the ever-living crap out the capitalist class of the U.S. The power of finance was tamed and wealth inequality was diminished via heavy taxation of the uber wealthy and implementation of the Glass-Steagall act.
The past ~40 years have seen the rolling back of every vestige of the New Deal. Both political parties are corrupted and subservient to capital(Wall Street, deregulated and shadow banking, military/industrial/intelligence complex). The media is wholly owned to push neoliberal ideology (this includes Fox so-called News, btw). Unions are largely destroyed as less than 6% of the private sector is unionized. Privatization is pushed as the answer to all that ails us, e.g. why in the world are we waiting for privately owned drug companies to distribute the COVID vaccines whilst they work out sweet-heart deals to enrich themselves further.
In short, if we want a middle class to arise then we need to get active and force the powerful to concede.
UBI on the surface seems like a good idea, but ultimately leaves in place the capitalist system.
These are all excellent observations and a good telling of the financial history of the U.S. and maybe much of the world. Identifying an issue is a first step. What is much more difficult is how changes can be made that could level out the inequity between the financial classes. As much as I hate posting it, I think there is much truth in this saying; the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. This continues until someone who has it all says, "let them eat cake" and a revolution commences as a result. Is history destined to repeat itself? Have we learned nothing from the mistakes of our ancestors?
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On the topic of residential property, are there any bargain basement prices in areas like Las Vegas yet?
The GFC hit that area hard. Given it’s a pandemic, are they still heavily restricted in doing business?
Has anyone seen any flow on effect with the residential housing market?
If the pandemic has impacted real estate more in one are than another is pretty easy to find out. Check any of the many real estate sites, such as Zillow , Truila and Estately. Check the asking price, time on the market and properties sold statistics. Honestly, I think it is too soon to evaluate the effect of the pandemic on the real estate market no matter where you live or want to live.
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No deals on anything you'd want to own right now.
Property is sky high due to low rates and relaxed guidelines....again.
Rural property is selling as soon as it's listed here(midwest) and rural land being split and new houses going up everywhere. I guess they all work for the govt. ??? :)
This examples what is currently happening in Oregon. I maintain that it is all a matter of supply and demand. As the population increases so will the demands on housing.
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Agreed... but what is someone who is aware of the plan to do if there is no where safe to have any assets?
You want safety buy gold. Safe but lousy return (historically only matching inflation) and expensive to store and protect. How a bout a insured savings account at your bank earning 0.1%?
Your best bet (if you don't want the responsibilities of running a business or rental real estate which is really a part-time/full-time job and not everyone is suited for landlordship) is to properly allocate your investment in bonds, cash, and stocks.
You just have to be willing to ride out periodic market fluctuations without panicking.
You need a way to create money to invest first of all. This could be your job, a side job, or a business you start, which could include rental real estate if it has cash flow.
Investing in stocks,bonds, etc is not a get-rich-quick method. It's a way to grow wealth you've generated in other ways.
So, figure out a way to generate excess money over and above what you need for living and invest it.
You need to live below your means (whatever that is) and invest the rest.
The immigrant success story is starting a small cash business (like a dry cleaners), sleeping on rice sacks in the back room, eating rice and beans, and saving and re-investing every spare cent in either the business, real estate, or something that throws off cash flow.
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This stimulus money isn't money the US has in a piggy bank somewhere. The US doesn't have it. They are essentially printing money. When Biden gets in with taxes, regulation and spending on big new programs inflation will happen as the dollar is devalued. It won't happen till he's in for year or two. The blue states will open ending the shut downs and the economy will soar for a year or two. Biden will gloat reading his teleprompter. Then the economy will crash due to insane capital gains tax on houses and stock market gains. The stock market will crash with a rush to sell off and unemployment will rise due to fewer jobs from the stock crash. Goods will sky rocket in prices. Biden will then blame Trump.
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Agreed... but what is someone who is aware of the plan to do if there is no where safe to have any assets?
Be miserable. 8)
My advices? BUY LAND, as in acreage...in a red state....1/2 hour to 1 hour from a major metro.
Land that is subject to only township taxes.
The township trustees of these townships usually happen to own the most land themselves and will not tax the hell out of them or their family farm trusts.
Now, after that start an internet or cash business and put in a big garden. Find a woman that can stay off of Facebook. ;D
Get out of the way of all that is coming - get the target off your back. That is how you hedge.
Just IMO, and what I am doing.
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This stimulus money isn't money the US has in a piggy bank somewhere. The US doesn't have it. They are essentially printing money.
It's called monetizing the debt. The Federal Reserve is literally buying US BONDS (IOUs from the Federal Government), which in turn places the USA under more debt burden. The money retrieved from the Federal Reserve is then pumped into circulation, mostly via digital means, but also by way of hard paper currency in the form of stimulus payments + government funding projects. It leads to inflation, as this year alone the Federal reserve after both relief packages have infused $4.6 Trillion into the US economy. It's a terrible idea, which also artificially props up the economy and makes the market stay on life support while sporting "all-time" market highs. People get these bullshit stimulus checks + unemployment, spend like there is no tomorrow and of course spend on popular brands that are also publicly traded in the stock market. Why wouldn't the market be artificially inflated, when people are just getting Fed Reserve money and reinvesting it into those S&P 500 companies by buying their products? Not to mention that the biggest companies in the US also get relief packages for PPP programs (paycheck protection programs) and corporate bailout assistance like the airlines received. It's all artificial and it's leading to one of the largest debt bubbles this country has ever seen. Ridiculous!
When Biden gets in with taxes, regulation and spending on big new programs inflation will happen as the dollar is devalued. It won't happen till he's in for year or two. The blue states will open ending the shut downs and the economy will soar for a year or two. Biden will gloat reading his teleprompter. Then the economy will crash due to insane capital gains tax on houses and stock market gains. The stock market will crash with a rush to sell off and unemployment will rise due to fewer jobs from the stock crash. Goods will sky rocket in prices. Biden will then blame Trump.
Inflation will happen because we keep pumping money into our economy, further inflating the current balloon of US currency. Biden's taxes will further cripple the wealthy and their financial suffering is what will "Trickle Down" and effect the poor, as prices for goods and services will rise (let the poor take the hit of the tax raises). This is the alternative meaning to trickle down economics. I agree with you in that our economy as a whole will collapse.
Make way for China motherfuckers, because the writing is on the wall.
Chaos, I'm moving in!
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Definitely a world wide war on the middle class happening right now. The "basic income" is a path towards governments controlling consumerism.
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It's called monetizing the debt. The Federal Reserve is literally buying US BONDS (IOUs from the Federal Government), which in turn places the USA under more debt burden. The money retrieved from the Federal Reserve is then pumped into circulation, mostly via digital means, but also by way of hard paper currency in the form of stimulus payments + government funding projects. It leads to inflation, as this year alone the Federal reserve after both relief packages have infused $4.6 Trillion into the US economy. It's a terrible idea, which also artificially props up the economy and makes the market stay on life support while sporting "all-time" market highs. People get these bullshit stimulus checks + unemployment, spend like there is no tomorrow and of course spend on popular brands that are also publicly traded in the stock market. Why wouldn't the market be artificially inflated, when people are just getting Fed Reserve money and reinvesting it into those S&P 500 companies by buying their products? Not to mention that the biggest companies in the US also get relief packages for PPP programs (paycheck protection programs) and corporate bailout assistance like the airlines received. It's all artificial and it's leading to one of the largest debt bubbles this country has ever seen. Ridiculous!
Inflation will happen because we keep pumping money into our economy, further inflating the current balloon of US currency. Biden's taxes will further cripple the wealthy and their financial suffering is what will "Trickle Down" and effect the poor, as prices for goods and services will rise (let the poor take the hit of the tax raises). This is the alternative meaning to trickle down economics. I agree with you in that our economy as a whole will collapse.
Make way for China motherfuckers, because the writing is on the wall.
Chaos, I'm moving in!
"1"
Bidens increased cap gains taxes starting in 2022 will stunt all small buisness from growing. So those taxes will stick to 2026 . I dont see china as a player or anything of influence. America will become more crowded and work scarce. People will get jacked up on food with nothing to do
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Bidens increased cap gains taxes starting in 2022 will stunt all small buisness from growing. So those taxes will stick to 2026 . I dont see china as a player or anything of influence. America will become more crowded and work scarce. People will get jacked up on food with nothing to do
Universal Basic Income. If not, there will be an overthrow.
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UBI is coming.
Increased automation and use of robots in doing things will lose jobs.
Corporations will pay less in wages and have increased profits using automation. So they will be taxed to provide UBI.
How they will keep these corps. from outsourcing their businesses will have to be dealt with.
Similar to a new tax on electric cars to make up for the shortfall in gas taxes used for highway and road repairs.
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Bidens increased cap gains taxes starting in 2022 will stunt all small buisness from growing. So those taxes will stick to 2026 . I dont see china as a player or anything of influence. America will become more crowded and work scarce. People will get jacked up on food with nothing to do
I can agree with everything, except the bold.
The writing is on the wall regarding China. If not sure what I mean, let me know and I can expand on this point.
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UBI is coming.
Increased automation and use of robots in doing things will lose jobs.
Corporations will pay less in wages and have increased profits using automation. So they will be taxed to provide UBI.
How they will keep these corps. from outsourcing their businesses will have to be dealt with.
Similar to a new tax on electric cars to make up for the shortfall in gas taxes used for highway and road repairs.
They are already doing it in South Korea. There are going to be so many jobs lost in the next year they will have to do it and that's before you factor in automation.
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Increased automation and use of robots in doing things will lose jobs.
Corporations will pay less in wages and have increased profits using automation.
buy growth stocks
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Charts don't matter until they do.
MBS = mortgage backed securities. The Fed owns twice as much as in the last housing crash and it's going parabolic.
(https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fed%20mbs.jpg?itok=y0ffaRV2)
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Charts don't matter until they do.
MBS = mortgage backed securities. The Fed owns twice as much as in the last housing crash and it's going parabolic.
(https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fed%20mbs.jpg?itok=y0ffaRV2)
Pretty scary huh?
The Federal Reserve already owns about 34% of outstanding mortgage bonds (MBS). That means that they own 1/3rd of all outstanding mortgages (i.e. homes in the market). This is dangerous, when you consider that if a homeowner defaults on a mortgage, the bondholders (the Federal Reserve in this case) have a claim on the value of the homeowner's property. The property can be liquidated with the proceeds used to compensate bondholders (i.e. The Fed). Put 3 home owners in a room with individual mortgages and one of their homes is essentially owned by the FED.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve already holds about $7 trillion in US debt (a little under half of the actual US GDP & stated differently about 20% of total US debt). Counter-argument to this is that of course another 78% ($21 Trillion) of US debt is owned by the public (in the form of Social Security and pension funds), but even so, this is a terrible direction we are heading in.
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Universal Basic Income. If not, there will be an overthrow.
Technically already in play in many countries.
We have a govt program in place already due to COVID which is AUD3k/mth. It’s supposed to end in a couple of months but that will be a death sentence.
Many European countries have effectively subsidised 30% of salaries in place today.
Central banks will spend 2021 reviewing existing programs to figure something out longer term. Today it’s stimulus policies approve by govt politics and the aim is to remove politics from the decisions so it becomes part of the money supply control.
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It's called monetizing the debt. The Federal Reserve is literally buying US BONDS (IOUs from the Federal Government), which in turn places the USA under more debt burden. The money retrieved from the Federal Reserve is then pumped into circulation, mostly via digital means, but also by way of hard paper currency in the form of stimulus payments + government funding projects. It leads to inflation, as this year alone the Federal reserve after both relief packages have infused $4.6 Trillion into the US economy. It's a terrible idea, which also artificially props up the economy and makes the market stay on life support while sporting "all-time" market highs. People get these bullshit stimulus checks + unemployment, spend like there is no tomorrow and of course spend on popular brands that are also publicly traded in the stock market. Why wouldn't the market be artificially inflated, when people are just getting Fed Reserve money and reinvesting it into those S&P 500 companies by buying their products? Not to mention that the biggest companies in the US also get relief packages for PPP programs (paycheck protection programs) and corporate bailout assistance like the airlines received. It's all artificial and it's leading to one of the largest debt bubbles this country has ever seen. Ridiculous!
Inflation will happen because we keep pumping money into our economy, further inflating the current balloon of US currency. Biden's taxes will further cripple the wealthy and their financial suffering is what will "Trickle Down" and effect the poor, as prices for goods and services will rise (let the poor take the hit of the tax raises). This is the alternative meaning to trickle down economics. I agree with you in that our economy as a whole will collapse.
Make way for China motherfuckers, because the writing is on the wall.
Chaos, I'm moving in!
"1"
This is why, IMO, we need Jews to dictate monetary policies to White leaders, but for Whites to have complete veto power. I think the Japanese were going to do something like this, or did do it at one point.
If my Fourth Reich society ever came into power, I'd run it using the same race laws as Israel - which are, funnily enough, the same race laws Hitler had in place. Which did not amount to some Jewish extermination pogrom. ::)
"The Man Who Saved Europe" - check it out on YouTube, OneMoreRep. It's cool, and shows how the actions of the Rothschild family and other big Jewish banking family hurts both White people and the common Jew - who I now do see as the real victims here...I just don't cast blame on only White people. The Rothschild family simply MUST know what they are doing is bad for Jews, and someone I know said he thinks Jews are purposely quelling the bottom 15% of the lowest IQ people in their race, to increase the already very high average Jewish IQ through enhanced Darwinian pressure.
Sickening, if true, but also something where I can sort of see why they might think that is good for Jews as a group. Still unfair to just some poor Jew who happens to be living in a White country that starts to expel Jews because of what the Rothschild family does.
Also - check out "The House of Rothschild" [1934]. That's the movie being reviewed in the video "The Man Who Saved Europe", which I recommended above.
I think the best thing for both Whites and Jews [to actually get along for the longest time possible], would be to allow Jews in White countries, but only on our terms.
You know...kind of like how Israel treats Whites [which is not only perfectly fine with me - but IDEAL, and good for the Jewish people].
Also, fuck any complaining leftist piece of shit who has a problem with Israel being a nuclear state. These pricks just hate powerful men and powerful people - period.
As for the orthodox Jews who you said didn't accept you...fuck them too. You know, I definitely see why Jews want to maintain their traditional values...but I don't take issue with just being gay. In Canada, the gay community won't shut up about "being oppressed", and all this, while they piss on each other publicly in gay parades. THAT, I have no problem with.
It's like what I said about how you don't get any flak on here for being homosexual [IMO, I get more flak for being homosexual, despite NOT being homosexual, LOL]. It's because you aren't wildly outspoken or pushing your views on people.
It's one thing for me to hold these thoughts for Whites in the White countries of Europe, and even to some extent in Canada, which was 96% White in 1971, and...let's be honest...White people were the ones responsible for the 500 years of constitutional evolution in Canada, AND the development of all of our institutions.
But I would NEVER dictate how Jews should act in their own society, in Israel. And yeah, I get what Saddam Hussein meant moments before being executed when he said "Palestine belongs to Arabs", but hey - might makes right, IMO.
Also, why the fuck do Jews need to build a giant border wall, and Arabs want to flood into Israel, if Jews "oppress" them so much? ::) That's the same argument used on Whites and I hate it.
OneMoreRep - if we don't lapse into global communism, and you're ever stranded in the middle of nowhere in Northern Ontario, send me a PM.
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why the fuck do Jews
u focus on humans.
humans r sinful, but can be understood.
satanic sock puppets, on the other hand - r a problem.
until u open your eyes to the spiritual... u will continue to grasp at straws in frustration.
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This is why, IMO, we need Jews to dictate monetary policies to White leaders, but for Whites to have complete veto power. I think the Japanese were going to do something like this, or did do it at one point.
If my Fourth Reich society ever came into power, I'd run it using the same race laws as Israel - which are, funnily enough, the same race laws Hitler had in place. Which did not amount to some Jewish extermination pogrom. ::)
"The Man Who Saved Europe" - check it out on YouTube, OneMoreRep. It's cool, and shows how the actions of the Rothschild family and other big Jewish banking family hurts both White people and the common Jew - who I now do see as the real victims here...I just don't cast blame on only White people. The Rothschild family simply MUST know what they are doing is bad for Jews, and someone I know said he thinks Jews are purposely quelling the bottom 15% of the lowest IQ people in their race, to increase the already very high average Jewish IQ through enhanced Darwinian pressure.
Sickening, if true, but also something where I can sort of see why they might think that is good for Jews as a group. Still unfair to just some poor Jew who happens to be living in a White country that starts to expel Jews because of what the Rothschild family does.
Also - check out "The House of Rothschild" [1934]. That's the movie being reviewed in the video "The Man Who Saved Europe", which I recommended above.
I think the best thing for both Whites and Jews [to actually get along for the longest time possible], would be to allow Jews in White countries, but only on our terms.
You know...kind of like how Israel treats Whites [which is not only perfectly fine with me - but IDEAL, and good for the Jewish people].
Also, fuck any complaining leftist piece of shit who has a problem with Israel being a nuclear state. These pricks just hate powerful men and powerful people - period.
As for the orthodox Jews who you said didn't accept you...fuck them too. You know, I definitely see why Jews want to maintain their traditional values...but I don't take issue with just being gay. In Canada, the gay community won't shut up about "being oppressed", and all this, while they piss on each other publicly in gay parades. THAT, I have no problem with.
It's like what I said about how you don't get any flak on here for being homosexual [IMO, I get more flak for being homosexual, despite NOT being homosexual, LOL]. It's because you aren't wildly outspoken or pushing your views on people.
It's one thing for me to hold these thoughts for Whites in the White countries of Europe, and even to some extent in Canada, which was 96% White in 1971, and...let's be honest...White people were the ones responsible for the 500 years of constitutional evolution in Canada, AND the development of all of our institutions.
But I would NEVER dictate how Jews should act in their own society, in Israel. And yeah, I get what Saddam Hussein meant moments before being executed when he said "Palestine belongs to Arabs", but hey - might makes right, IMO.
Also, why the fuck do Jews need to build a giant border wall, and Arabs want to flood into Israel, if Jews "oppress" them so much? ::) That's the same argument used on Whites and I hate it.
OneMoreRep - if we don't lapse into global communism, and you're ever stranded in the middle of nowhere in Northern Ontario, send me a PM.
The problem is not 'the Jews' but extremely wealthy families, companies and corporations across the world who have too much political power and influence.
For instance, at Bilderburg the leaders of the biggest companies, wealthiest families, monarchs, bankers and political leaders meet to discuss world affairs.
The group’s agenda, originally to prevent another world war, is now defined as bolstering a consensus around free market Western capitalism and its interests around the globe.
"To say we were striving for a one-world government is exaggerated, but not wholly unfair. Those of us in Bilderberg felt we couldn't go on forever fighting one another for nothing and killing people and rendering millions homeless. So we felt that a single community throughout the world would be a good thing."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_meeting
This is not democracy but oligarchy.
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This is why, IMO, we need Jews to dictate monetary policies to White leaders, but for Whites to have complete veto power.
Some Jews are good with economics, but I've also met some that are terrible with it. I think monetary policy is a delicate and difficult topic. I listen to the great economic thinkers of our time to further build upon my understanding of these matters.
"The Man Who Saved Europe" - check it out on YouTube, OneMoreRep. It's cool, and shows how the actions of the Rothschild family and other big Jewish banking family hurts both White people and the common Jew - who I now do see as the real victims here...I just don't cast blame on only White people. The Rothschild family simply MUST know what they are doing is bad for Jews, and someone I know said he thinks Jews are purposely quelling the bottom 15% of the lowest IQ people in their race, to increase the already very high average Jewish IQ through enhanced Darwinian pressure.Sickening, if true, but also something where I can sort of see why they might think that is good for Jews as a group. Still unfair to just some poor Jew who happens to be living in a White country that starts to expel Jews because of what the Rothschild family does.
That stuff depresses me honestly. Because it points at elitists aiming for complete world domination. The world is beautiful in all its imperfect ways. Humans learn from their mistakes over time. Our societies evolve at a somewhat slow rate, but we learn sooner or later. What's even more depressing about watching these types of documentaries is that it further accentuates the fact that we as individual people have no power against these elitist groups. At OUR level and with our limited means, it would take a serious banding together of mankind to make a dent and we lack unity. Sadly, we are mostly separated by stupid shit like race, color of skin, money class systems and the illusion of beauty and fame, which are all forms of currency in this morally bankrupt culture.
As for the orthodox Jews who you said didn't accept you...fuck them too. You know, I definitely see why Jews want to maintain their traditional values...but I don't take issue with just being gay. In Canada, the gay community won't shut up about "being oppressed", and all this, while they piss on each other publicly in gay parades. THAT, I have no problem with.
These social isolation tactics are somewhat ingrained in the human psyche. Even as young elementary school children, most everyone can remember social dynamics at recess. Certain kids would only play with their "kind", be it by age, race, interests or simply the idea of being part of the cool kids. Today, adult human beings are merely children that have physically aged, but have failed to mentally mature.
Also, why the fuck do Jews need to build a giant border wall, and Arabs want to flood into Israel, if Jews "oppress" them so much? ::) That's the same argument used on Whites and I hate it.
I don't like the idea of building a giant border wall. It sets a bad example in my opinion. But I also understand that illegal immigration can lead to a drain in a country's financial infrastructure if resources meant to support a country's citizens are redirected or misused on undocumented foreigners. This makes sense from an economic standpoint, but in itself can be argued as a means to isolate societies and people. That said, I think a New World Order is on the rise and their view of what humanity should become will likely do away with the illusion of borders. Instead, I think there will be a unified form of world government, much like the Bilderburg group likely intends it to be (universal laws, digital currency, 24/7 surveillance, population control via chemical castration, universal basic income and the advent of AI to serve as the major taxable workforce in the future).
OneMoreRep - if we don't lapse into global communism, and you're ever stranded in the middle of nowhere in Northern Ontario, send me a PM.
I will.
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UBI may be a necessary evil in the future but it can't be funded by borrowing.
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UBI may be a necessary evil in the future but it can't be funded by borrowing.
I think one approach for UBI to work properly is to tax the companies that introduce AI into the workforce. In other words, as AI puts the common person out of work, it would lead to a paradigm shift whereby the vast majority of Americans without specialized skills (skills that can not be assimilated by AI), will be workless and AI will replace them. As AI evolves to become the largest component of our workforce (replacing everything from retail clerks, cab drivers, truck drivers, law enforcement, nurses, lawyers and many types of doctors), AI will generate a lot of revenue for companies and society as a whole. When that happens, taxing the companies that own and supply the AI will be the best way to fund UBI.
Borrowing from the federal reserve bank to fund UBI will only lead to high inflation and ultimately hyperinflation with a probable collapse of the US dollar & economy.
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See Georgia Guidestones.
AI equals the path to global human population around 500 million as planned. They have no intention of paying useless eaters to breed - complete lack of logic in that.
I thought this stuff was Alex Jones nutso stuff to be entertained by....but the last few years not so much.
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The root cause of the problem is the fiat money system which allows money to be printed without being tied to anything physical. As long as the current system remains in place, every ten years you’re going to have some crisis used as a pretext for devaluation.
This time it’s a medical crisis. Last time it was a housing crisis. In about ten years there will be another, probably a war. So, we have that to look forward to.
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See Georgia Guidestones.
AI equals the path to global human population around 500 million as planned. They have no intention of paying useless eaters to breed - complete lack of logic in that.
I thought this stuff was Alex Jones nutso stuff to be entertained by....but the last few years not so much.
I think in the beginning, while we still have 7+ Billion humans on earth, the idea is to slowly introduce population control (vaccines, govt incentivized programs to reduce reproduction much like the Chinese have done and tax incentives) to reduce the useless breeders that would have to be paid. Slowly bring down the population and just keep AI producing/serving the masters.
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I think in the beginning, while we still have 7+ Billion humans on earth, the idea is to slowly introduce population control (vaccines, govt incentivized programs to reduce reproduction much like the Chinese have done and tax incentives) to reduce the useless breeders that would have to be paid. Slowly bring down the population and just keep AI producing/serving the masters.
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yet somehow right now for decades they've been encouraging the Joggers and Metheads to breed out of control by giving away free Obama phones, free healthcare, welfare, food stamps, child support, childcare tax credits, section 8 housing vouchers ,etc..
Doesn't seem very logical to me
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yet somehow right now for decades they've been encouraging the Joggers and Metheads to breed out of control by giving away free Obama phones, free healthcare, welfare, food stamps, child support, childcare tax credits, section 8 housing vouchers ,etc..
Doesn't seem very logical to me
I get your frustration, but think about the alternative...
What happens if they don't provide those individuals with those socialistic programs?
Desperation will ensue. Crime would rise exponentially, particular in the form of theft, murders, riots and looting. Civil and social unrest would become rampant and I could see the government being overthrown.
Remember, 20% of the US population as of 2020 is on welfare, that's 66.6 million Americans. Think about that for a second. Not to mention that these socialistic public assistance programs also include other programs that help our American elderly (medicaid, Medicare, social security etc). If we eradicate the more popular programs, those would also have to go as to be "fair". Keep in mind that over 55 million Americans as of 2020 are over the age of 65, 55 million that depend on these programs.
It's a snowball effect that would end badly for America.
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In Democrat run states, politicians are always looking for new and innovative ways to raise taxes yet for some bizarre reason, the governors of these states are enthusiastically embracing a policy of shut downs which is going to cause a decrease in tax revenue. Why?
NY Gov Andrew “Evil Eyes” Cuomo gives away the game, here:
https://www.pix11.com/news/local-news/ny-will-take-very-dramatic-actions-if-state-doesnt-get-30b-from-federal-government-cuomo-says
Cuomo said. "We will have no choice because I don't have a printing press like the federal government does."
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In Democrat run states, politicians are always looking for new and innovative ways to raise taxes yet for some bizarre reason, the governors of these states are enthusiastically embracing a policy of shut downs which is going to cause a decrease in tax revenue. Why?
NY Gov Andrew “Evil Eyes” Cuomo gives away the game, here:
https://www.pix11.com/news/local-news/ny-will-take-very-dramatic-actions-if-state-doesnt-get-30b-from-federal-government-cuomo-says
Cuomo said. "We will have no choice because I don't have a printing press like the federal government does."
Have you heard the recent rumors about the Federal Reserve looking to possibly buy state bonds? Just like the FED has funded both covid relief packages by buying US treasuries, there's locker room talk suggestive that they might aim to enter the market for state bonds.
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Some Jews are good with economics, but I've also met some that are terrible with it. I think monetary policy is a delicate and difficult topic. I listen to the great economic thinkers of our time to further build upon my understanding of these matters.
Matt only sees things as being either black or white. There are no gray areas in his thinking. Don't expect this to change anytime soon.
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Have you heard the recent rumors about the Federal Reserve looking to possibly buy state bonds? Just like the FED has funded both covid relief packages by buying US treasuries, there's locker room talk suggestive that they might aim to enter the market for state bonds.
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It will probably happen. Most of the big state pensions are hopelessly insolvent.
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It will probably happen. Most of the big state pensions are hopelessly insolvent.
NYC has become so depressing. I'm starting to evaluate a permanent move down south.
Do you feel similar or not at all?
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NYC has become so depressing. I'm starting to evaluate a permanent move down south.
Do you feel similar or not at all?
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I’ve thought about it but I don’t do well in Florida humidity.🥵
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UBI may be a necessary evil in the future but it can't be funded by borrowing.
Technically already in place via govt stimulus paying up to 30% of wages to business as an incentive to keep people employed.
Ours is supposed to end in March. That's laughable as we are the verge of a lockdown here which is going to utterly crush our economy yet again.
They will fund it via straight monetary devaluation in order to devalue the huge amount of debt everybody is drowning in (govt and private). Every single time in history, this has been the outcome.
Something people never think about is deflation makes your debt worth more....... inevitably you collapse which is why every single time in history the result is an inflationary bailout.
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I can agree with everything, except the bold.
The writing is on the wall regarding China. If not sure what I mean, let me know and I can expand on this point.
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please expand 'no homo'
China is a big nothing
Same with AI, whos gonna fix the robot?
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please expand 'no homo'
China is a big nothing
Same with AI, whos gonna fix the robot?
Gladly..
Since the 1980s, the education of China's population has improved dramatically, the real per capita income has multiplied by 24, and it has become the largest country in the world in trade (exceeding the US share of world trade), a rival technology leader, the holder of the greatest foreign reserves assets in the world by a factor of over two, the largest lender/investor in the emerging world, the second most powerful military power, and a geopolitical rival of the United States. And it is growing in power at a significantly faster pace than the United States and other “developed countries.”
China's empire is on the rise, while the US empire has been on decline for the greater part of 20 years.
This (above) is gathered from research I've recently conducted on the matter from 3 distinct sources.
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It's called monetizing the debt. The Federal Reserve is literally buying US BONDS (IOUs from the Federal Government), which in turn places the USA under more debt burden. The money retrieved from the Federal Reserve is then pumped into circulation, mostly via digital means, but also by way of hard paper currency in the form of stimulus payments + government funding projects. It leads to inflation, as this year alone the Federal reserve after both relief packages have infused $4.6 Trillion into the US economy. It's a terrible idea, which also artificially props up the economy and makes the market stay on life support while sporting "all-time" market highs. People get these bullshit stimulus checks + unemployment, spend like there is no tomorrow and of course spend on popular brands that are also publicly traded in the stock market. Why wouldn't the market be artificially inflated, when people are just getting Fed Reserve money and reinvesting it into those S&P 500 companies by buying their products? Not to mention that the biggest companies in the US also get relief packages for PPP programs (paycheck protection programs) and corporate bailout assistance like the airlines received. It's all artificial and it's leading to one of the largest debt bubbles this country has ever seen. Ridiculous!
Inflation will happen because we keep pumping money into our economy, further inflating the current balloon of US currency. Biden's taxes will further cripple the wealthy and their financial suffering is what will "Trickle Down" and effect the poor, as prices for goods and services will rise (let the poor take the hit of the tax raises). This is the alternative meaning to trickle down economics. I agree with you in that our economy as a whole will collapse.
Make way for China motherfuckers, because the writing is on the wall.
Chaos, I'm moving in!
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I have an extra room, hope you like to cuddle with dogs. :D
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Great explanation of what is happening with inflation here:
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In Democrat run states, politicians are always looking for new and innovative ways to raise taxes yet for some bizarre reason, the governors of these states are enthusiastically embracing a policy of shut downs which is going to cause a decrease in tax revenue. Why?
NY Gov Andrew “Evil Eyes” Cuomo gives away the game, here:
https://www.pix11.com/news/local-news/ny-will-take-very-dramatic-actions-if-state-doesnt-get-30b-from-federal-government-cuomo-says
Cuomo said. "We will have no choice because I don't have a printing press like the federal government does."
What an a--hole that guy is.
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Nancy Pelosi's house. :o
(https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Eqqy25XUwAAyQAN.jpg?itok=8aF33Rvu)
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66.6 percent of Americans on welfare
666
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Nancy Pelosi's house. :o
(https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Eqqy25XUwAAyQAN.jpg?itok=8aF33Rvu)
I still call bullshit.
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You would think her garage would be bigger
Only 2 car?
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You would think her garage would be bigger
Only 2 car?
It's probably not her only house. It may just be a small place she has to keep her residency in her district.
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66.6 percent of Americans on welfare
666
Where do you get those statistics?
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I still call bullshit.
https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2021/01/02/report-pelosi-san-francisco-home-vandalized-graffiti-apparent-pigs-head/
McConnell's too.
https://www.al.com/news/2021/01/mitch-mcconnell-nancy-pelosis-homes-hit-with-graffiti-after-2000-stimulus-check-fails.html
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Where do you get those statistics?
I believe that’s the percentage of people living check to check.
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66.6 percent of Americans on welfare
666
That's not correct. I think you misread my statement by mistake. What my post stated was that 20% of Americans are on welfare, which translates to about 66.6 million Americans.
Can be easily Googled, but for your reading pleasure: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-97.html (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-97.html)
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https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2021/01/02/report-pelosi-san-francisco-home-vandalized-graffiti-apparent-pigs-head/
McConnell's too.
https://www.al.com/news/2021/01/mitch-mcconnell-nancy-pelosis-homes-hit-with-graffiti-after-2000-stimulus-check-fails.html
I know the democratic controlled media wrote the stories but I'm sure they were fake attacks, set up for public pity.
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I know the democratic controlled media wrote the stories but I'm sure they were fake attacks, set up for public pity.
100% agree, it looks like complete bullshit. Even the spray paint lines purposely skip the stairs.
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That's not correct. I think you misread my statement by mistake. What my post stated was that 20% of Americans are on welfare, which translates to about 66.6 million Americans.
Can be easily Googled, but for your reading pleasure: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-97.html (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-97.html)
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Easily googled
Lol
666
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There's not much difference between Biden and Trump. With Biden there will be much more debt (QE).
The destruction of the dollar is all done by design. They are deliberately destroying the economic system by printing the dollar in to oblivion. Then they will usher in a new world economic order. The central banks led by the Federal Reserve will own all assets. The rest of us will be debt slaves with no middle class.
The widening rich poor divide is being exacerbated by "stimulus". The stimulus goes towards the assets and who owns most of the assets? The wealthy elite own most of the assets.
Stimulus is not going in the pockets of the middle class. It's going to the wealthy.
Don't be a zombie and expect the gov't to serve you. They don't serve you. You need to serve yourself and don't get caught up in the rhetoric of the politicians (gays, guns and god)..
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What number do you think a person has to earn to be “ wealthy “
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What number do you think a person has to earn to be “ wealthy “
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Cryptopcurrency certainly is here to stay, but one main question is whether Bitcoin and blockchain technology will be the final step. A lot of people made a fortune on AOL in the early days of the internet before it became obsolete. Bitcoin certainly has the major market share, but there are other forms like Ethereum, Compound and others that offer things like loans, interest and other services of a traditional bank(without the bank or fees). Time will tell if Bitcoin is just the pace setter in the race or if it's looking to cross the finish line first.
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There's not much difference between Biden and Trump. With Biden there will be much more debt (QE).
The destruction of the dollar is all done by design. There are deliberately destroying the economic system by printing the dollar in to oblivion. Then they will usher in a new world economic order. The central banks led by the Federal Reserve will own all assets. The rest of us will be debt slaves with no middle class.
The widening rich poor divide is being exacerbated by "stimulus". The stimulus goes towards the assets and who owns most of the assets? The wealthy elite own most of the assets.
Stimulus is not going in the pockets of the middle class. It's going to the wealthy.
Don't be a zombie and expect the gov't to serve you. They don't serve you. You need to serve yourself and don't get caught up in the rhetoric of the politicians (gays, guns and god)..
Probably one of the once ignorant statements ever said on this board.
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China's empire is on the rise, while the US empire has been on decline for the greater part of 20 years.
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Proof that communism works
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Cryptopcurrency certainly is here to stay, but one main question is whether Bitcoin and blockchain technology will be the final step.
cryptos only exist to facilitate the building out and adoption of the blockchain... a necessary hellscape from which there is no escape.
u'll notice in the bitcoin thread.... dudes tripping over themselves... giddy.. deluded by greed - so deluded by greed that they cannot see the forest for the trees - cant see that they are helping to construct their own prison (lol).
that is by design... crypto appeals to that baser instinct – greed... a mechanism by which man is being drawn to his end.
bitcoin will evaporate, this is the 'final step':
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cryptos only exist to facilitate the building out and adoption of the blockchain... a necessary hellscape from which there is no escape.
u'll notice in the bitcoin thread.... dudes tripping over themselves... giddy.. deluded by greed - so deluded by greed that they cannot see the forest for the trees - cant see that they are helping to construct their own prison (lol).
that is by design... crypto appeals to that baser instinct – greed... a mechanism by which man is being drawn to his end.
bitcoin will evaporate, this is the 'final step':
100%
pigs get fed
hogs get slaughtered
If there was a $VIX indicator on crypto stuff it would be in the single digits.. there is no fear in crypto right now and thats not good in any market
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66.6 percent of Americans on welfare
666
If you figure in all govt workers and military, pretty much.
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Because I can hand a dollar to someone
Can’t hand over a Bitcoin when there is no power
Lol
If there is no power, having some dollars in your pocket isn't going to be of much help, period.
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As an accountant, I'll gladly tackle this.
You pose a great question and have a very good point on hand. Why hold on to money if it will become useless in terms of its value?
The simplest answer is that in times of harsh inflation, there are some good ways to hedge against inflation. Having real estate on hand is one great hedge against inflation (as property values go up & so do rents during times on inflation) AND one of the other great hedges against inflation is having active DEBT. Look at it this way, if you owe $50K in debt today and tomorrow the inflation rate more than doubles, a few things will occur as a result on the increase to inflation rate. First, your debt (the dollar amount of it) will not change as a result of the inflation. Second, what will change is that your job/workplace will likely give you a salary/wage increase due to the rising cost of living by way of inflation. As a result of this, you will then be capable of paying that debt off in half the time. Using this principle, you can see one solid reason why holding onto cash is not a bad idea due to the ability you will then have to eradicate your private debt in the setting of rising inflation.
There are other ways to hedge against inflation. The various crypto currencies offer vehicles for hedging, but I will differ on commenting regarding those, as I honestly don't see evidence of inherent value to those types of currencies. I know many here will disagree, but I am an old school guy and like my assets to be real vs digital.
The once young and daring financial cowboy in me would think differently. If I were in my 30's today, my suggestion to those that are day traders or are tempted to dabble with Bitcoin would be to consider shorting bitcoin through a cryptocurrency margin trading platform. In other words, gamble with crypto's value on borrowed money and simply reap the rewards after taxes.
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There is no inflation as the velocity of money is zero.people aren't spending. We are in a deflationary period.
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What number do you think a person has to earn to be “ wealthy “
Getbigger wealthy?
A number followed by 9 zeros.
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HTH
(https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/lifecycle-bureaucracy_0.png?itok=TKfaST4s)
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There is no inflation as the velocity of money is zero.people aren't spending. We are in a deflationary period.
This statement is going to test people's beliefs on here....some here believe that the dow is 30k due to market forces. ;D
The money that a majority of people are spending is stimulus and debt. Earning power has decreased greatly for most while money at the top is sloshing around to the 1%. They are postponing rents and evictions for a reason. Everything has the feel of being a placeholder.
Wonder when people start drawing their 401k accounts as income? What could go wrong?
(https://i.gifer.com/26T.gif)
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This statement is going to test people's beliefs on here....some here believe that the dow is 30k due to market forces. ;D
The money that a majority of people are spending is stimulus and debt. Earning power has decreased greatly for most while money at the top is sloshing around to the 1%. They are postponing rents and evictions for a reason. Everything has the feel of being a placeholder.
Wonder when people start drawing their 401k accounts as income? What could go wrong?
(https://i.gifer.com/26T.gif)
I'm just using the numbers central banks use when calculating inflation rate. However if you were to take into consideration the rise in prices of certain asset classes, inflation is much higher. All depends on whos numbers you use.
I am of the opinion that inflation is way higher then the .07% they claim.
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I still call bullshit.
She has more than one place
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I'm just using the numbers central banks use when calculating inflation rate. However if you were to take into consideration the rise in prices of certain asset classes, inflation is much higher. All depends on whos numbers you use.
I am of the opinion that inflation is way higher then the .07% they claim.
The overall gross inflation for the US during 2020 was 24%.
CPI (consumer inflation) for the US during 2020 was 1.2%
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The overall gross inflation for the US during 2020 was 24%.
CPI (consumer inflation) for the US during 2020 was 1.2%
Source?
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Here is an example for you guys that shows why i say the world is trying to fight off deflation.
More debt has been accumulated than there is increase in the money supply. The velocity has dropped to 1.1. meaning injected money isn't flowing through the economy at the previous last decade rate of 1.5.
The 2020 vs 2019 numbers are below meaning today a debt to GDP of 131% on the 1st January 2021 with lock downs, restrictions, high unemployment, salary cuts etc...... i always expected 2021 to see a much larger increase in debt/QE than in 2020. Perhaps this year we may actually see some CPI increase to help ease the pain.
2019 GDP 21.4T
2020 GDP 20.8T
Change -0.6T
2019 US Debt 22.6T (106% of GDP)
2020 US Debt 27.2T (131% of GDP)
change +4.5T
2019 M2 15.4T
2020 M2 19.2T
change +3.8T
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Jeeze, it's almost at $37,000 right now. I remember two weeks ago when it was in $19,000 territory. That's $17,000 increase in two weeks. How long did it take to get to the magical $5,000 that everyone was raving about and which started this thread?
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Source?
Federal Reserve Bank.
I track the money supply along with gold, inflation and debt for the US and my country. All data is published.
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The overall gross inflation for the US during 2020 was 24%.
CPI (consumer inflation) for the US during 2020 was 1.2%
Thanks for the correction. I was going off the top of my head.
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Here is an example for you guys that shows why i say the world is trying to fight off deflation.
More debt has been accumulated than there is increase in the money supply. The velocity has dropped to 1.1. meaning injected money isn't flowing through the economy at the previous last decade rate of 1.5.
The 2020 vs 2019 numbers are below meaning today a debt to GDP of 131% on the 1st January 2021 with lock downs, restrictions, high unemployment, salary cuts etc...... i always expected 2021 to see a much larger increase in debt/QE than in 2020. Perhaps this year we may actually see some CPI increase to help ease the pain.
2019 GDP 21.4T
2020 GDP 20.8T
Change -0.6T
2019 US Debt 22.6T (106% of GDP)
2020 US Debt 27.2T (131% of GDP)
change +4.5T
2019 M2 15.4T
2020 M2 19.2T
change +3.8T
Are you aware of any program that was done to test if prolonged negative interest rates would get the economy going again?
I watched so many videos oflver the last few days that I'm losing or mixing up some of the information. The results weren't released yet and probably won't as many people are assuming it was a failure. Ill try and find the name of it if it doesn't ring a bell for you.
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Are you aware of any program that was done to test if prolonged negative interest rates would get the economy going again?
I watched so many videos oflver the last few days that I'm losing or mixing up some of the information. The results weren't released yet and probably won't as many people are assuming it was a failure. Ill try and find the name of it if it doesn't ring a bell for you.
They have had negative rates in some European countries for a few years. Doesn’t work.
The problem today is central banks are so scared of The CPI so they lead everyone down the path of debt and now look where we are...... utterly fucked.
Central banks will get there in the end. Can’t be avoided.
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They've already printed enough money to front run 100 years of future prosperity.
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The writing is on the wall. With a democratic president + congress, you know that:
- The FED will continue to print money + keep interest rates low in order to keep our economy on life support
- Government spending WILL rise, because that's the name of the game when working with a Democratically runned White House
- Increased taxation on corporations + the wealthy and increased corporate regulations will ensue
- Public assistance programs will run up our national debt (not just welfare, but social security and pensions).
- Inflation WILL rise due to all this money being pumped into the system.
Our national Debt-to-GDP ratio continues to rise. New inflation rates (CPI) will be released later this month (January 13, 2021) with Bloomberg forecasts suggesting increases well towards the mid 2% range. GDP price index also continues to rise and at the end of the month we will have a better idea of what the new numbers reveal.
Brace yourselves, as a Biden white house will increase spending (it's their knee jerk reaction). In order to fund their spending, they will both increase taxes and ask Uncle FED to chip in. Taxes will affect everyone. It won't just be corporations or the rich. Corporations will pass down the burden of taxes to the poor and midle class by increasing the prices to their products and services in order to offset the hit from increased taxation. Furthermore, the poor will feel the effects from those necessary price increases and will feel the underlying effects of inflation from the continuous QE from the FED. Still, the poor will spend like there's no tomorrow, because that is this generation's crack cocaine, spending is the only thing many of the poor do to push away their harsh reality (ie "As long as I look rich, I might start to feel and believe it").
I've said it before and I'll say it again, our economy is headed to the shitter and fast. Look to China as the new economic world power.
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Federal Reserve Bank.
I track the money supply along with gold, inflation and debt for the US and my country. All data is published.
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Link to your info?
Current Report June 12, 2020:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2020-06-mpr-summary.htm
Inflation
Consumer price inflation has slowed abruptly. The 12-month change in the price index for PCE was just 0.5 percent in April. The 12-month measure of PCE inflation that excludes food and energy items (so-called core inflation), which historically has been a better indicator of where overall inflation will be in the future than the total figure, fell from 1.8 percent in February to 1.0 percent in April. This slowing reflected monthly readings for March and April that were especially low because of large price declines in some categories most directly affected by social distancing. Overall inflation also has been held down by substantially lower energy prices, which more than offset the effects of surging prices for food. Despite the sharp slowing in inflation, survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations have generally been stable at relatively low levels. However, market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved down to some of the lowest readings ever seen."
Federal Open Market Committee
September 16, 2020
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20200916.htm
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They have had negative rates in some European countries for a few years. Doesn’t work.
The problem today is central banks are so scared of The CPI so they lead everyone down the path of debt and now look where we are...... utterly fucked.
Central banks will get there in the end. Can’t be avoided.
Thanks. Can you help clarify what they mean by soaking up access liquidity out of the system? I hope I said that right and used it in the roper context. Please excuse my ignorance. I'm still trying to figure it all out. What steps would they have to take to keep inflation from spiraling out of control if the economy picks up and with such a huge money supply. In other words, how would they reign it all in before it goes out into peoples hands? Thanks again.
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Link to your info?
I perform my own calculations but it's not something i share, sorry. I post a lot of my feedback here. You will see my predictions and either i'm right or i'm a useless twit that should be ignored.
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Thanks. Can you help clarify what they mean by soaking up access liquidity out of the system? I hope I said that right and used it in the roper context. Please excuse my ignorance. I'm still trying to figure it all out. What steps would they have to take to keep inflation from spiraling out of control if the economy picks up and with such a huge money supply. In other words, how would they reign it all in before it goes out into peoples hands? Thanks again.
I'd need the full context regarding 'soaking up excess liquidity' because you can see from the masses of QE liquidity is something they are trying to create. If you are having to create liquidity, you have a shortage of it to begin with.
We are in a depression which is a period of depressed GDP growth, a result due to a lack of inflation of the money supply. 2020 GDP -3% and in 2021 we will be in a global recession yet again due to the lockdowns. They are fighting off deflation at the moment but also preventing CPI inflation which is why the rich are having a banger of a year and the rest of us are getting crushed.
For simplicity's sake if you want higher GDP growth, you require higher currency devaluation which will result in higher CPI, higher wage growth and a devaluation of your existing debt (monetisation of debt).
This is what CPI looked like over the decades - note CPI is our daily basket of goods only, not property and other stuff.......
1913-1919 --> 9.8%
1920-1929 --> 0.38% (central banks limited currency devalution to decrease inflation)
1930-1939 --> -2.08% (great depression a result of central banks refusal to devalue currency)
1940-1949 --> 4.86%
1950-1959 --> 1.82%
1960-1969 --> 2.45%
1970-1979 --> 7.25% (gold std abandoned and monetary devaluation ramped to pay off existing debt and create a boom)
1980-1989 --> 5.82%
1990-1999 -->3.08%
2000-2009 --> 2.54%
2010-2019 --> 1.86%
2020 --> 1.2%
2021 target--> 2%
For simplicity's sake again, if in 2019 you spent $100/week on all your daily shit, after 2020 those same things cost you $101.2 and after 2021 it will cost you $103.22 Keeping in mind you will have different spending habits - less expensive takeaway and more cheaper supermarket/home food which will be accounted for in the CPI.
To all the people claiming to be drowning in CPI, sorry but that simply isn't happening. There is broad misunderstanding of CPI and inflation in general.
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This is all good and well. However, there are plenty of corporations, companies and businesses currently using Covid-to their financial advantage by marking up their products. I don't pay really close attention to what I spend at the grocery store so a 2% inflation rate would definitely go unnoticed by me. I'm buying the same stuff I have always bought for a longtime and in similar quantities yet the tab is noticeably higher after the clerk totals it these days then it was a year ago.
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This is all good and well. However, there are plenty of corporations, companies and businesses currently using Covid-to their financial advantage by marking up their products. I don't pay really close attention to what I spend at the grocery store so a 2% inflation rate would definitely go unnoticed by me. I'm buying the same stuff I have always bought for a longtime and in similar quantities yet the tab is noticeably higher after the clerk totals it these days then it was a year ago.
I know, i am actually one of the people making the decision on the in store prices lol. I have made a few posts about that but they get lost in a big thread.
Volumes have dropped during 2020 so i did not discount as often or as deep. Consumers pay more. Simple.
My costs have not increased from suppliers. I changed the promotional strategy to earn more total profit instead of seeing it drop on lower volume.
What gets people confused over the CPI is the weighting which is adjusted to consumer behaviour.
Lets say you walk into a furniture shop and prices are clearly 10% higher than the last time you were in there. The reality is you buy furniture once every 5yrs not every single week like milk and bread. The CPI is adjusted for that timeline.
What always surprises me is people complain about their hamburger going up a buck yet when their property goes up 100k that's perfectly fine......
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This is all good and well. However, there are plenty of corporations, companies and businesses currently using Covid-to their financial advantage by marking up their products. I don't pay really close attention to what I spend at the grocery store so a 2% inflation rate would definitely go unnoticed by me. I'm buying the same stuff I have always bought for a longtime and in similar quantities yet the tab is noticeably higher after the clerk totals it these days then it was a year ago.
Don't take my post as a dig BTW. I pretty much rarely have a go at someone on here, i try and help.
You need to remember they are not bailing out average joe yet. I think for the US the first stimulus round of 2.4T the peasants received 0.3T (13%) the rich got 87%. In the latest proposal of the 1.8T stimulus the payments to the peasants will be 0.18T (10%). The rich will get 90%.
It is not possible for consumers to claim they are experiencing financial hardship and at the same time claim they are drowning in inflation from a $600 stimulus cheque....... perception is heavily skewed by bias, that's why there is data.
Below is my actual price forecast for Gold which is created using my own calculations from the money supply. If i apply my own CPI calculation to the price of hamburgers, this is what you can expect to see in real life.
I suggest by 2023 we would be having a major property boom. You need to remember, they have not started to bail out the average consumer yet. They are currently bailing out the rich. The bailout for the rest of us will be finalised during 2021 and by 2022+ we will start to see an inflationary impact on the CPI and property.
This is the impact you will see in real life when they finally start to let inflation go.
Gold Price
2020 - 1,889
2021 - 3,022
2022 - 4,443
2023 - 10,574
2024 - 14,169
Change 650%
Hamburgers
2020 - 6.50
2021 - 7.20
2022 - 8.01
2023 - 9.05
2024 - 10.23
Change 57%
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Don't take my post as a dig BTW. I pretty much rarely have a go at someone on here, i try and help.
You need to remember they are not bailing out average joe yet. I think for the US the first stimulus round of 2.4T the peasants received 0.3T (13%) the rich got 87%. In the latest proposal of the 1.8T stimulus the payments to the peasants will be 0.18T (10%). The rich will get 90%.
It is not possible for consumers to claim they are experiencing financial hardship and at the same time claim they are drowning in inflation from a $600 stimulus cheque....... perception is heavily skewed by bias, that's why there is data.
Below is my actual price forecast for Gold which is created using my own calculations from the money supply. If i apply my own CPI calculation to the price of hamburgers, this is what you can expect to see in real life.
I suggest by 2023 we would be having a major property boom. You need to remember, they have not started to bail out the average consumer yet. They are currently bailing out the rich. The bailout for the rest of us will be finalised during 2021 and by 2022+ we will start to see an inflationary impact on the CPI and property.
This is the impact you will see in real life when they finally start to let inflation go.
Gold Price
2020 - 1,889
2021 - 3,022
2022 - 4,443
2023 - 10,574
2024 - 14,169
Change 650%
Hamburgers
2020 - 6.50
2021 - 7.20
2022 - 8.01
2023 - 9.05
2024 - 10.23
Change 57%
soooo... I just invest in index funds SPX/INDU/NAZ and make a killing..... DOW should be 200k by that time!!
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soooo... I just invest in index funds SPX/INDU/NAZ and make a killing..... DOW should be 200k by that time!!
Not necessarily...... i'll explain.
In broad terms shares are valued based on analysis of revenue, profit, dividends, growth potential.
The problem with QE is you are inflating the price without inflating any of the metrics. As a result, your analysis of the metrics begins to blow to pieces.
The longer you continue QE, the more distance you put between the price and the metrics, the less confidence buyers have in the market.
QE is fine if it's there to prevent utter destruction and in place only for a short duration.
It is completely moronic to have a pandemic where the country is shut down and the Dow is 20% higher than mid 2020..... QE isn't supposed to be used for that, it is supposed to be used to prevent it going to 10k....... markets are supposed to managed themselves, not for the Govt to become involved and artificially ramp them.
The risk in 2021 and on is if QE keeps up and they inflate the Dow to 50k-60k, the metrics halve vs 2020. As a result, confidence leaves the market and money will look for an asset class based more upon the usual market participation.
That doesn't mean don't go into shares but it does mean you need to be on your toes.
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Pretty scary huh?
The Federal Reserve already owns about 34% of outstanding mortgage bonds (MBS). That means that they own 1/3rd of all outstanding mortgages (i.e. homes in the market). This is dangerous, when you consider that if a homeowner defaults on a mortgage, the bondholders (the Federal Reserve in this case) have a claim on the value of the homeowner's property. The property can be liquidated with the proceeds used to compensate bondholders (i.e. The Fed). Put 3 home owners in a room with individual mortgages and one of their homes is essentially owned by the FED.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve already holds about $7 trillion in US debt (a little under half of the actual US GDP & stated differently about 20% of total US debt). Counter-argument to this is that of course another 78% ($21 Trillion) of US debt is owned by the public (in the form of Social Security and pension funds), but even so, this is a terrible direction we are heading in.
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The problem is that 95% (maybe more) of Americans are blissfully ignorant of these things. We receive zero financial education in school - and I am realizing that the vast majority of those who work in the financial sector don't ”truly” understand long term ramifications and simply sell the products that they are told or that earn them the highest commission.
I don’t say this as someone who thinks I have it “all figured out”. I’ve realized how little I truly understand and am investing a ton of time and resources into education.
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The problem is that 95% (maybe more) of Americans are blissfully ignorant of these things. We receive zero financial education in school - and I am realizing that the vast majority of those who work in the financial sector don't ”truly” understand long term ramifications and simply sell the products that they are told or that earn them the highest commission.
I don’t say this as someone who thinks I have it “all figured out”. I’ve realized how little I truly understand and am investing a ton of time and resources into education.
BIN-FUCKING-GO!
You're absolutely right my friend. The vast majority of people don't know these things and MANY of those in the financial sector (traders) don't understand these concepts and are instead more concerned with selling you products for commission.
Understanding both micro and macro economics and basic history (particularly US, British, Dutch, China, Russian history) will go a VERY long way in providing answers in terms of what's going on and what direction we're headed towards. If you know the ins/outs of economics and have a strong grasp surrounding the US economy, you will know WHY politicians do what they do and what masters they serve. Additionally, if you know economics, you will understand what bait (in the form of laws and economic packages) is best to control the poor.
I've considered suggesting the creation of a subforum here for Economics & Finance. I just don't know if many members will participate or be interested.
"1"
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The problem is that 95% (maybe more) of Americans are blissfully ignorant of these things. We receive zero financial education in school - and I am realizing that the vast majority of those who work in the financial sector don't ”truly” understand long term ramifications and simply sell the products that they are told or that earn them the highest commission.
I don’t say this as someone who thinks I have it “all figured out”. I’ve realized how little I truly understand and am investing a ton of time and resources into education.
Exactly.
Most in 'finance' are salesman, mainly investment brokers and insurance salesman.
They tend to have only a basic understanding of economics as it's not their area of expertise or study.
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BIN-FUCKING-GO!
You're absolutely right my friend. The vast majority of people don't know these things and MANY of those in the financial sector (traders) don't understand these concepts and are instead more concerned with selling you products for commission.
Understanding both micro and macro economics and basic history (particularly US, British, Dutch, China, Russian history) will go a VERY long way in providing answers in terms of what's going on and what direction we're headed towards. If you know the ins/outs of economics and have a strong grasp surrounding the US economy, you will know WHY politicians do what they do and what masters they serve. Additionally, if you know economics, you will understand what bait (in the form of laws and economic packages) is best to control the poor.
I've considered suggesting the creation of a subforum here for Economics & Finance. I just don't know if many members will participate or be interested.
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If you can get a sub forum - I would 100% be interested. I’m sure there are a ton of guys who may not post a lot here but would definitely love a place to discuss Economics.
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If you can get a sub forum - I would 100% be interested. I’m sure there are a ton of guys who may not post a lot here but would definitely love a place to discuss Economics.
Agreed
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I perform my own calculations but it's not something i share, sorry. I post a lot of my feedback here. You will see my predictions and either i'm right or i'm a useless twit that should be ignored.
What nonsense and BS.
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What nonsense and BS.
In what way? You can't just say that and not expound on it.
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In what way? You can't just say that and not expound on it.
Sure I can.
Welcome to the Thunderdome...
(Wes, finish it!)
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'Head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde has called for global regulations on Bitcoin, labeling the cryptocurrency “reprehensible.”
“There has to be regulation. This has to be applied and agreed upon […] at a global level because if there is an escape that escape will be used,” she said.'
https://www.sgtreport.com/2021/01/ecb-head-christine-lagarde-calls-for-global-regulation-of-reprehensible-bitcoin/
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'Head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde has called for global regulations on Bitcoin, labeling the cryptocurrency “reprehensible.”
“There has to be regulation. This has to be applied and agreed upon […] at a global level because if there is an escape that escape will be used,” she said.'
https://www.sgtreport.com/2021/01/ecb-head-christine-lagarde-calls-for-global-regulation-of-reprehensible-bitcoin/
Lol, there's been so many lies that have poured out of that woman's mouth. She's the one of the last people to take seriously. Globalist, banker scum.
Christine Lagarde convicted: IMF head found guilty of criminal charges over massive government payout.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/christine-lagarde-convicted-imf-head-found-guilty-negligence-fraud-trial-a7484586.html%3famp
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Globalist, banker scum.
they coming for ur bits... the demonization of crypto has begun.
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they coming for ur bits... the demonization of crypto has begun.
Whales bought and continue to buy more bitcoin in record numbers during and since Mondays dip. I care more about what they do than anything else in that video.
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'Head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde has called for global regulations on Bitcoin, labeling the cryptocurrency “reprehensible.”
“There has to be regulation. This has to be applied and agreed upon […] at a global level because if there is an escape that escape will be used,” she said.'
https://www.sgtreport.com/2021/01/ecb-head-christine-lagarde-calls-for-global-regulation-of-reprehensible-bitcoin/
Really quite idiotic of her, considering that fiat physical cash is by far the single most commonly used currency for nefarious activities. (Something I explained to Mr Anabolic back in the day).
Either way, in some countries KYC is coming. No different to the rules many countries apply to fiat currency and to gold. In in that regard this arguably helps legitimize BTC and makes if far easier for banks and financial institutions to hold and offer. Once that is done Legarde can turn her attention to the evils of gold, fine art, and diamonds...
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they coming for ur bits... the demonization of crypto has begun.
'Head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde has called for global regulations on Bitcoin, labeling the cryptocurrency “reprehensible.”
“There has to be regulation. This has to be applied and agreed upon […] at a global level because if there is an escape that escape will be used,” she said.'
https://www.sgtreport.com/2021/01/ecb-head-christine-lagarde-calls-for-global-regulation-of-reprehensible-bitcoin/
Anatoly Aksakov, a member of the Russian State Duma, has reiterated his negative stance on Bitcoin (BTC) shortly after the cryptocurrency briefly retouched $40,000 on Jan. 14.
Aksakov also urged for strict regulations on Bitcoin, hinting that global jurisdictions should probably ban it as a payment method.
Russia has already banned crypto-powered payments effective from Jan. 1, 2021.
Aksakov stated, “It is necessary to cut off all channels for using Bitcoin to finance drug trafficking, terrorist operations, money laundering, corruption schemes, and so on.”
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bubble-will-pop-sooner-or-later-says-famous-russian-btc-critic
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. Once that is done Legarde can turn her attention to the evils of gold, fine art, and diamonds...
Lol. Well said.
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I had a debate this week with a colleague about QE and why we have no inflation (CPI).
QE goes directly to the banks. By banks i mean the BIG banks, generally speaking it isn't the little ones.
When i say banks receive the money i mean the institution itself owns the money, not Bob CEO of Big Bank. The money sits in the account of 'big bank'.
The banks then have the ability to decide where they put that money. The Govt doesn't force them. Politicians don't force them. 'Big Bank' decides for itself and the first port of call is the sharemarket because that is the first to liquidate itself in tough times. After they pump money into the sharemarket and any other market causing them pain, the money is made available to average joe in the form of loans.
When you see trillions of QE pumped into the money supply, the answer to the question 'where is it?' is primarily the sharemarket. The sharemarket took a 30% dump and is now 5% past it's all time high during a pandemic. That takes Trillions to achieve.
The sharemarket is not part of the CPI. The sharemarket is not a metric used in order to justify to your boss why you need a wage increase (that metric would be CPI). When i say there is no inflation, this is what i am talking about. The sharmarket is not purchasing loaves of bread, milk, clothes, furniture, mobile phones etc and thus is not influencing the CPI . Therefore, you can have trillions and trillions injected into the financial markets and virtually none of it will hit the inflation figures, GDP or velocity.
With me? Ok, so we have trillions of money sent into the money supply. We now understand that it has gone into the financial markets (as we can see). In order to begin sending that money into the economy and raise GDP and the CPI, banks need to begin spending and also providing loans. On the spending front they need to begin hiring people for projects for upgrades, new processes, regulation etc. On the loan front they need to offer lower interest rates and relax lending criteria just like they did prior to the GFC........
Currently the banks are not spending. They are not running projects and are not hiring people.
The banks have relaxed interest rates and also relaxed lending standards........ but we know from published central bank data that Average Joe has been paying off debt and saving money. Average Joe is scared of losing his job. With high unemployment numbers putting downward pressure on wages this also means many have taken a paycut in the current environment.
This is why we are not seeing crazy levels of CPI. Bread costs the same. Fuel is cheaper. clothes are cheap, internet is cheap. All the money is sitting in the big bank's account and nobody is wanting to borrow nor are the big bank's wanting to spend. Afterall, if you are a bank and your bonuses are paid on sharemarket performance, you would simply jack it to the moon and get a bonus.
Stalemate.
Right now the central banks are all tapering down QE. They believe they have done enough and it's all up to average joe to bail the economy out by taking on more debt (i'm not kidding).
What we face in 2021 is the risk of a sharemarket collapse because the banks having jacked prices of shares, without the ability to force people to take on greater debt they won't be able to float the GDP and bring the economy back online in order to validate the share prices. Without validation, you have a loss of faith and eventually capitulation as shareholders leave the market.
UBI and/or job subsidy will become very real, very quick. The govt and central banks need to address the fear they created and make average joe feel like they can spend and borrow once again.
Central banks will end up initiating trickle up economics policies to make this happen which will improve 3 key metrics - GDP, CPI, velocity. That is the solution. These are the core metrics of the health of an economy, not the sharemarket. For whatever reason some key people decided the sharemarket was the beacon of hope...... how are we doing today?
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I had a debate this week with a colleague about QE and why we have no inflation (CPI).
QE goes directly to the banks. By banks i mean the BIG banks, generally speaking it isn't the little ones.
When i say banks receive the money i mean the institution itself owns the money, not Bob CEO of Big Bank. The money sits in the account of 'big bank'.
The banks then have the ability to decide where they put that money. The Govt doesn't force them. Politicians don't force them. 'Big Bank' decides for itself and the first port of call is the sharemarket because that is the first to liquidate itself in tough times. After they pump money into the sharemarket and any other market causing them pain, the money is made available to average joe in the form of loans.
When you see trillions of QE pumped into the money supply, the answer to the question 'where is it?' is primarily the sharemarket. The sharemarket took a 30% dump and is now 5% past it's all time high during a pandemic. That takes Trillions to achieve.
The sharemarket is not part of the CPI. The sharemarket is not a metric used in order to justify to your boss why you need a wage increase (that metric would be CPI). When i say there is no inflation, this is what i am talking about. The sharmarket is not purchasing loaves of bread, milk, clothes, furniture, mobile phones etc and thus is not influencing the CPI . Therefore, you can have trillions and trillions injected into the financial markets and virtually none of it will hit the inflation figures, GDP or velocity.
With me? Ok, so we have trillions of money sent into the money supply. We now understand that it has gone into the financial markets (as we can see). In order to begin sending that money into the economy and raise GDP and the CPI, banks need to begin spending and also providing loans. On the spending front they need to begin hiring people for projects for upgrades, new processes, regulation etc. On the loan front they need to offer lower interest rates and relax lending criteria just like they did prior to the GFC........
Currently the banks are not spending. They are not running projects and are not hiring people.
The banks have relaxed interest rates and also relaxed lending standards........ but we know from published central bank data that Average Joe has been paying off debt and saving money. Average Joe is scared of losing his job. With high unemployment numbers putting downward pressure on wages this also means many have taken a paycut in the current environment.
This is why we are not seeing crazy levels of CPI. Bread costs the same. Fuel is cheaper. clothes are cheap, internet is cheap. All the money is sitting in the big bank's account and nobody is wanting to borrow nor are the big bank's wanting to spend. Afterall, if you are a bank and your bonuses are paid on sharemarket performance, you would simply jack it to the moon and get a bonus.
Stalemate.
Right now the central banks are all tapering down QE. They believe they have done enough and it's all up to average joe to bail the economy out by taking on more debt (i'm not kidding).
What we face in 2021 is the risk of a sharemarket collapse because the banks having jacked prices of shares, without the ability to force people to take on greater debt they won't be able to float the GDP and bring the economy back online in order to validate the share prices. Without validation, you have a loss of faith and eventually capitulation as shareholders leave the market.
UBI and/or job subsidy will become very real, very quick. The govt and central banks need to address the fear they created and make average joe feel like they can spend and borrow once again.
Central banks will end up initiating trickle up economics policies to make this happen which will improve 3 key metrics - GDP, CPI, velocity. That is the solution. These are the core metrics of the health of an economy, not the sharemarket. For whatever reason some key people decided the sharemarket was the beacon of hope...... how are we doing today?
This is where I differ.
You say prices haven't gone up and that may be true but you get less of a product these days. Less squares, thinner paper on the toilet roll, smaller english muffin for that sandwich, smaller bottlen or can, clothes are thinner and crappier quality, products in general are shit quality and dont last as long. everything is throw away shit. The infaltion is hidden from the customer in that way. No?
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This is where I differ.
You say prices haven't gone up and that may be true but you get less of a product these days. Less squares, thinner paper on the toilet roll, smaller english muffin for that sandwich, smaller bottlen or can, clothes are thinner and crappier quality, products in general are shit quality and dont last as long. everything is throw away shit. The infaltion is hidden from the customer in that way. No?
Absolutely hidden inflation and unrealised inflation are very real things.
BUt you need to treat those separately.
When you go for an annual salary review they show you the CPI and your salary increase generally speaking matches that number. You don’t say to your boss I need more money because the shirts I buy are lower quality this year or that you English muffin shrunk 2.7% etc.
The money supply and economy work off the CPI metric. This is why it is vital to use it in the manner intended in order to get a proper understanding of what the money supply and economy are doing.
We can validate the CPI metric by using the velocity equation on the money supply. GDP divide by M2. This shows how well the money is flowing through hands in the economy. Look over history and the collapse in velocity marries up with the collapse in CPI, GDP and low wage growth.
So when discussing the economy and predicting an outcome one needs to simply accept the metrics for what they are.
Things like hidden or unrealised inflation an then be discussed separately. Most today are using unrealised inflation as if it is already here because they don’t understand that if 6T was pumped in, how could there not be inflation. Simply put, it all went to the rich (Dow Jones record high during lockdown lol) so if you aren’t rich then you didn’t get any.
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Absolutely hidden inflation and unrealised inflation are very real things.
BUt you need to treat those separately.
When you go for an annual salary review they show you the CPI and your salary increase generally speaking matches that number. You don’t say to your boss I need more money because the shirts I buy are lower quality this year or that you English muffin shrunk 2.7% etc.
The money supply and economy work off the CPI metric. This is why it is vital to use it in the manner intended in order to get a proper understanding of what the money supply and economy are doing.
We can validate the CPI metric by using the velocity equation on the money supply. GDP divide by M2. This shows how well the money is flowing through hands in the economy. Look over history and the collapse in velocity marries up with the collapse in CPI, GDP and low wage growth.
So when discussing the economy and predicting an outcome one needs to simply accept the metrics for what they are.
Things like hidden or unrealised inflation an then be discussed separately. Most today are using unrealised inflation as if it is already here because they don’t understand that if 6T was pumped in, how could there not be inflation. Simply put, it all went to the rich (Dow Jones record high during lockdown lol) so if you aren’t rich then you didn’t get any.
I need to do alot more studying. ;D again, thanks for the explanation.
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(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2F__origami%2Fservice%2Fimage%2Fv2%2Fimages%2Fraw%2Fhttp%3A%252F%252Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%252F38015a86-f032-11e9-a55a-30afa498db1b%3Ffit%3Dscale-down%26source%3Dnext%26width%3D700&f=1&nofb=1)
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This is where I differ.
You say prices haven't gone up and that may be true but you get less of a product these days. Less squares, thinner paper on the toilet roll, smaller english muffin for that sandwich, smaller bottlen or can, clothes are thinner and crappier quality, products in general are shit quality and dont last as long. everything is throw away shit. The infaltion is hidden from the customer in that way. No?
Interesting point. Do you suppose one of the reasons for this is because the U.S. has farmed out so much of the production of goods? It's hard to find and you'll pay a lot more when you do, but when shit is really made in America as claimed, it cost much more. Guess the question is whether we want to be a society that buys cheap and dispensable products or we are willing to pay more for products that last?
Think about this, the waste hauling company where I live provides containers for our refuse. Guess which one is the largest? It is the recycle container. Now take a look at what goes into that container. It is shit we don't need to get by, like fast food containers and various other packaging which you can't reuse in anyway.
My son lives in Germany. When he puts out the refuse, it is maybe 25% of what we put out here and the recycle is broken into more finite containers. When you go to the market there, you bring your own basket or bags. If you forget to do that, you pay for each bag you need to get it to your can and into your house. And this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to reducing the cost of products and the need to recycle their containers.
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It's hard to find and you'll pay a lot more when you do...
Solution: buy armee stuff it has the best quality you can get.
Nearly undestroyable and a low price.
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Diem Stablecoin Prepares for Liftoff With Fireblocks Custody Partnership
https://www.coindesk.com/diem-stablecoin-prepares-for-liftoff-with-fireblocks-custody-partnership
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So apparently data is showing the bottom 50% of Americans experienced their largest net wealth increase in history.
Americans also now have a huge amount of spare crash and apparently low debt.
When the economy reopens they are expecting a massive boom as all the Americans who are now crazy wealthy will go nuts and buy consumer goods and bail out the economy.
I guess this is why the US govt issued 1.9T, then 3T and is now talking about another couple of Trillion. Because it’s all going so awesome?
The reality however is the deflationary pressure is only getting worse. All that push inflation will crush people’s wages into oblivion. Your house price doubled, bread 10x, milk 10x, unemployment up and wages flat......... Germany anyone?
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notice, three things mentioned (start vid at 6:00)
bitcoin (which is dismissed as transient)
Diem
and this:
'bitcoin took off as a disrupter'
'it will b completely independent and a lot of people jumped on that train'
'as sort of an interesting idea'
'its gone up a lot and it gets lots of attention'
'but what its really doing, and this is the key point'
'what its really doing is its building an infrastructure to actually transact on'
'covid has accelerated this'
fascinating to watch this being stated out loud in the mainstream, and telling in terms of the timeline.
participation in crypto now, accelerates the infrastructure of diem.
cryptos only exist to facilitate the building out and adoption of the blockchain.
bitcoin will evaporate
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They are correct in saying Covid accelerated it.
Big business can see QE and stimulus is becoming the new norm.
The Fed is still missing inflation targets and can’t get wages up as a result.
What is coming next is a huge shift to use a larger portion of stimulus into the bottom of the workforce to force wage inflation.
China’s digital coin is ready to rock. The US won’t be far away either. Expiration dates on money coming our way, who’d have thought it!
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So apparently data is showing the bottom 50% of Americans experienced their largest net wealth increase in history.
Americans also now have a huge amount of spare crash and apparently low debt.
When the economy reopens they are expecting a massive boom as all the Americans who are now crazy wealthy will go nuts and buy consumer goods and bail out the economy.
I guess this is why the US govt issued 1.9T, then 3T and is now talking about another couple of Trillion. Because it’s all going so awesome?
The reality however is the deflationary pressure is only getting worse. All that push inflation will crush people’s wages into oblivion. Your house price doubled, bread 10x, milk 10x, unemployment up and wages flat......... Germany anyone?
Why would your house price double? If you have a fixed rate mortgage it would remain the same.
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Why would your house price double? If you have a fixed rate mortgage it would remain the same.
I think he meant the market value of his house doubled.
If inflation occurs, the value of the dollar decreases, which in turn means that it now takes more USD to actually purchase hard assets like real estate.
"Yesterday a gallon of milk cost $2.00, tomorrow inflation occurs and now it's worth $4.00" - kind of thing.
"1"
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I think he meant the market value of his house doubled.
If inflation occurs, the value of the dollar decreases, which in turn means that it now takes more USD to actually purchase hard assets like real estate.
"Yesterday a gallon of milk cost $2.00, tomorrow inflation occurs and now it's worth $4.00" - kind of thing.
"1"
Got it. The advantage for a homeowner during an inflationary period is paying off the house early with all that extra paper.
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Got it. The advantage for a homeowner during an inflationary period is paying off the house early with all that extra paper.
Agreed!
I'm banking on that. I think Jerome Powell is going to drive the dollar through the ground. Inflation rate for last month hit 0.6% (massive). I think it will get worse.
"1"
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I've had 2 family members tell me this past week that interest rates are going to go up. That isn't going to happen and i'll outline why.
This is for Australia but we peg to the USD so it's generally a similar story. We track M2 and M3 so we see stimmy injections in M2 and then in M3 you see how it impacted throughout the economy on a longer timeline. The US doesn't track M3 so you only see the bursts in M2 and not the deflation after in M3.
2021 so far:
Currency -1%
M2 +4%
M3 +1%
Sharemarket +14% and property market +9%
Velocity 0.9 (For every 100B we spend we get 90B return in GDP).
**This means some asset classes have experienced a mass exodus of funds which have flowed to the sharemarket and property market.
Bond yields are flattening which marries up with the lack of money supply growth which means you don't get interest rate increases. For interest rates to increase you need the bond rate and money supply to be going up aswell, instead we have them flat despite pumping in large deficits during 2021.
The problem with deflation is it looks the same as inflation which is why people are very confused about what is going on. It's like this. A productivity drop leads to volume drop leads to price increases. The prices increase because we have less to sell, therefore prices need to go up to earn a living. Making less, selling less = higher unemployment and downward pressure on wages. It's a deflationary spiral that continues to feed itself.
*Lower wages because you don't have to come to an office
*Lower wages because you don't have to come to an office and therefore don't need to live in the world's most expensive cities.
*4 day work week because you don't come to an office and don't need to live in the world's most expensive cities so now you have less money to purchase less products meaning the business doesn't sell as much volume to support your already low wage so now you work less hours if you want to keep your job.
Printing money doesn't automatically create inflation. You see CPI go up but it's not because everybody is out there buying shit like crazy. Volumes are falling, prices are going up as a result which gives the illusion of inflation.
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International banking officials simulate global economic collapse
High-level international banking officials and organizations gathered last month for a global 'war game' exercise simulating the collapse of the global financial system. The tabletop exercise was reminiscent of 'Event 201,' the pandemic simulation exercise that took place just before COVID-19 entered the global scene.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/international-banking-officials-simulate-global-economic-collapse/
'The “Collective Strength” initiative was held for 10 days, beginning Dec. 9, 2021, at the Israeli Finance Ministry in Jerusalem. It was relocated to Jerusalem from the Dubai World Expo over concerns about the Omicron variant.
Israel led a 10-country contingent that also included treasury officials from the U.S., Austria, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates.
Representatives from supranational organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and Bank of International Settlements (BIS)... and indirectly, the World Economic Forum (WEF) also participated.
the main theme of “Collective Strength” appears not so much the simulation of such cyberattacks but, as the name of the initiative implies, the strengthening of global cooperation in cybersecurity and the financial sector.
As reported by Reuters, participants in the simulation discussed multilateral responses to a hypothetical global financial crisis. Proposed policy solutions included debt repayment grace periods, SWAP/REPO agreements, coordinated bank holidays, and coordinated delinking from major currencies.'