All true.
Execpt air cargo is only a droplet compared to shipping.
Ok volume in the US could be so much bigger but still. One can easily put one aeroplane fleet worth of in a couple of containers.
And that does not include any industrial type cargo. Machinery, steel, wood etc.
I used air freight for most products through Asia Pacific. When that ended I moved to sea freight. A temporary measure became a permanent one because of the cost saving.
We had air freight and sea freight pre pandemic and the system could cope. We don’t have planes zooming around and consumer is now asking for sea freight.
Sorry but you’re wrong, the system cannot cope with everybody using sea freight. We are already consuming less in 2020 and 2021 yet our global logistics cannot cope anymore. It doesn’t mean we are using the majority but it means we can afford 30x standard prices whenever we want it. And yet again it’s high seasonality that has ground things to a half.
It’s the straw that broke the camel’s back. You only need 10% of volume to be willing to pay a 5x premium everyday to cause prices to go up. Product shortages are getting worse, not better and will continue to get worse in 2022.
The resolution of this is decreased volumes and higher prices. Once that happens, magically our global supply chain will be ok. Its been almost 2yrs now and they haven’t fixed shit.
I’m in a different industry now and I modelled their business with all of this in mind. Nobody wants to believe but there I am with a 2% error rate and yet the business is following data with a 40% error rate……
Back to the 1960s we go. Range rationalisation is coming followed by brand rationalisation followed by eventual monopolies…….
