How often are your predictions right? Be honest, haha
Depends.
For example chatting on here is just chatting. It’s conversation. It’s discussion. You say stuff to keep the talk going otherwise it falls silent and boring. Things on here hold no weight because there are no actions that come of it.
When you take real life actions is really the key.
I might be 99% wrong in things I say here be wise I’m chatting but my real world actions I walk the talk and I’m pretty bang on.
While Everyone is an expert after the fact, doing shit BEFORE it happens is the hard bit and generally you sound nuts lol.
a) I didn’t believe we would lockdown. My wife and I disagreed heavily. Then we locked down so I was wrong.
b) as a consequence of being wrong, I said if we do not get people back into offices and BAU in the month after the announced 3mth lockdown we won’t be going back and people will pushback hard. I was right but sounded crazy at the time and nobody agreed with me back then which was March 2020.
c) I pushed to sell our property as soon as we came out of initial lockdown and move regionally for more freedom and more capital gains. Everyone was shocked and thought we were crazy, meanwhile we got a record for our penthouse, have made 7 figures CG in 18months and have had significantly more freedom in the countryside.
d) got into crypto. Made money despite getting almost everything wrong. I had to make a fuck load of mistakes fast in crypto in order to learn. I did. I have. So it’s like maybe 5 fails here to get 1 right outcome if that makes sense.
e) I said there would be massive shortages and prices rises particularMy in back end of 2021 and 2022. We front ran like bastards to our house build (it’s a big, top spec house) and are currently US200k ahead of costs and we received 90% of furniture we ordered a year ago. The last 10% is doubtful. We even paid for marble from Italy (a shit heap of it) and now there is less than 1/2 the options but 4x the price.
So for real world I didn’t really Take many actions but they were the largest dollar value risks one can make. House, job, savings, expenditure.
Macro view take macro actions as you have the greatest chance of being correct.