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Chief Actuary for SS - Raid the Retirement Fund!
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 03/20/2013 12:52 -0400
Stephan Goss, the chief actuary for Social Security (SS) provided a detailed report on the status of the SS Disability Fund (DI) to the House of Representitives. The short story is that DI is going bust in a few years. The options to fix this problem were spelled out in the report. The extremes of the required "fix" range from an immediate cut in DI benefits of 16%, or an increase in DI payroll taxes of 20%.
Nothing new there. But, there is a "Plan B" for the DI Fund.
The solution is to raid the SS Retirement Fund for the deficits at DI:
A simple tax-rate reallocation between OASI and DI, as was done in 1994, could equalize the financial prospects of the trust funds avoiding reserve depletion until 2033.
Note: "Simple tax-rate reallocation" means $40+b a year....
Bingo! The raid on the retirement fund results in no cuts in benefits, and no new taxes. What's not to like about that result? The gutless wimps in D.C. would love to kick the can down the road a decade, therefore the Raid solution is an obvious choice. (The consequence of the Raid would be to reduce the expected life of the Retirement Trust Fund by as much as five years,.)
This is not the first time this has come up. The Congressional Budget Office, in its 2/5/13 report on the SS Trust Funds had these words in a footnote:
CBO’s baseline assumes that the Commissioner will pay DI benefits in full even after the trust fund is exhausted.
Note: For a discussion of the CBO report, see my article from 2/10/13 (Link).
Okay, we now have two legs of the government who have (functionally) suggested that a raid on the OASI fund is a possible fix for DI. Lightening does not strike twice in the same place very often, especially in Washington. The idea of raiding one fund to preserve another, has just gotten another big supporter. If the folks at AARP understood what was being proposed - they would flip their wigs!
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The True Cost of the Disability Program
I have a list, (it's pretty short) of the folks who I think are "doing the right thing" in Washington. Stephen Goss was on that list. I'm disappointed with him and his presentation of the "Facts" about the DI program.
Mr. Goss's report to the House ran nineteen pages; there are 14 charts. (Link) (http://www.ssa.gov/legislation/testimony_031413a.html) Everything a Congressman (or the public) could ever want to know about the DI program is spelled out in detail.
But, Goss completely left out the most critical cost of DI. The Chief Actuary failed to identify a cost directly related to DI. The numbers are big - $80b in 2012. The estimate is for more than a trillion of over the coming decade. If you look beyond that time horizon, the costs that Goss failed to identify are in the mega-trillions.
Goss failed to provide the full picture when he did not disclose the DI costs to Medicare. Every individual who gets DI benefits ALSO gets Medicare.
In a report dated 3/14/2013 (Link), (http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43995_DI-Testimony.pdf) the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) accurately described the real costs of DI:
Total government spending on DI beneficiaries is substantially higher than DI expenditures alone.
Disabled beneficiaries receive coverage under Medicare, regardless of their age.
The cost of Medicare benefits received by DI beneficiaries was about $80 billion in 2012; CBO expects that it will be $130 billion in 2023.
I give Stephen Goss an "F" for failing to provide all of the information needed to evaluate the DI program. How do you sweep a trillion dollars under the carpet?
(http://brucekrasting.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/sweep_under_carpet.jpg)
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CBO – The Coming Raid on Social Security
Every politician in America knows that Social Security (SS) is a third rail. Any Pol who tries to mess with the country’s largest and most popular entitlement program is going to have the likes of the AARP coming after them. It’s not possible to win an election on a platform that advocates cutting back SS.
With that in mind, I find it interesting to report that a very credible source is now predicting that Obama AND Congress will take action over the next 24 months that will substantially undermine both the long and short-term health of SS. The legislative raid on SS will certainly total in the hundreds of billions, it could top $1T over the next fifteen years.
So who is this “credible source”? And just how is this raid going to happen? The source of this information is the Congressional Budget Office (CBO); the following is how it will play out:
SS consists of two different pieces. The Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI). Both entities have their own Trust Funds (TF). OASI has a big TF that will, in theory, allow for SS retirement benefits to be paid for another 15+ years. On the other hand, the DI fund will run completely dry during the 1stQ of 2016. By current law, the DI benefits must be cut across-the-board by 30% on the day that the DI TF is exhausted.
This would mean that 11 million people (most of whom are very sick) would get slammed from one day to the next. There is no one in D.C. who wants this to happen. I don’t think the American public wants this outcome either. So what are the fixes?
1) Increase income taxes on +$250k of income to pay for the DI shortfall. Maybe, but this will not happen with the current Republican controlled House.
2) Increase Payroll taxes to cover the DI shortfall. I see zero political support for a permanent Payroll tax increase.
3) Cut benefits by 30%. This would be insane – it will not happen with Obama running the show.
4) Kick the can down the road and raid the OASI TF for the annual shortfalls at DI.
Of course #4 is the path that will be taken. #s 1, 2 and 3 are not politically feasible. I have been wondering what will happen with the DI conundrum. I was surprised to see that the CBO spelled out what will happen in its report on the Budget and Economy – SS Trust Funds. (http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43890) The report has this footnote:
CBO projects that the DI trust fund will be exhausted during fiscal year 2016. Under current law, the Commissioner of Social Security may not pay benefits in excess of the available balances in a trust fund, borrow money for a trust fund, or transfer money from one trust fund to another. However, following rules in the Deficit Control Act of 1985 (section 257(b)), CBO’s baseline assumes that the Commissioner will pay DI benefits in full even after the trust fund is exhausted.
The “loophole” to drain the OASI insurance is already law – so Congress doesn’t have to do anything to raid the retirement fund. The “do nothing” plan is always the best option in D.C.
The footnote goes on to provide an estimate for the size of the raid:
For illustrative purposes, below are the cumulative shortfalls in the DI trust fund beginning in 2016. Those shortfalls do not include interest expenses.
DI Trust Fund Cumulative Shortfall
($s in Billions)
2016 -15
2017 -55
2018 -94
2019 -133
2020 -173
2021 -215
2022 -260
2023 -307
Wow! At this rate the raid tops $1T in 2029. This is is a big dent in a Trust Fund of $2.8T.
There is an import “tell” from the CBO. In the footnotes it highlights the fact that there is a discrepancy, and uses this an excuse to avoid establishing an adjusted end date for the OASI Trust Fund. (It’s not a complicated calculation)
What the CBO fails to state is that the raid on OASI will result in a significant reduction in the End Date for the retirement Fund. In its report to Congress last year SS forecast that the Retirement fund would be exhausted in 2033. The DI drain (and other negative revisions by CBO) will bring the End Date to below 2030 in the upcoming SS report to Congress. That would be a very significant development. The CBO does not want to be the one who puts a new SS end date “out there”. To me, this was a cop-out by the CBO.
Given that discrepancy between the trust funds’ operation and the baseline’s assumption, CBO is not providing DI or combined trust fund totals for the year of exhaustion and thereafter.
The timing of this story is interesting. The question in my mind is will the “fix” come before or after the bi-election. If Obama was a gambler, and he believed the Democrats could re-take the House in 2014, then he might defer action on DI until 2015. This scenario creates the opportunity for option #1, a tax on the rich to supplement DI. Of course that is gambling, and there would be a small window of time to push through a new income tax to save DI.
Then there is the Republicans. Do they want to push this before, or after 11/2014? I could argue both ways, but in the end, it gets back to the fact that no one wants to “do” anything with SS. It’s better to do “nothing”; that makes #4 the most likely outcome.
I hope that some of the big Defenders of SS pick up on the information from the CBO regarding the coming raid on the retirement fund. This is a huge constituency (60m beneficiaries – 150m contributors – every politician in the country – all of the Press). If that group catches on to what is about to happen to the retirement fund, there will be a great chorus of, “Don’t you dare touch my money!”
I’m trying to stir the pot on this one. I want DI’s terminal condition to come onto the table sooner versus later. I’m hoping that if and when it does come up for discussion, it opens the door on the broader issue of what the hell America is doing with entitlements. Basically, I’m trying to pick a big fight. For the good of the country, wish me luck.
(http://brucekrasting.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/animals-fighting-4-300x259.jpg)
http://brucekrasting.com/cbo-the-coming-raid-on-social-security/