Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 765168 times)

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10275 on: January 21, 2024, 05:34:14 PM »
Your second wave of inflation call is looking more and more plausible, but I would remind you my call for a new SPX all time high played out almost exactly how I called it back in October 8)

I closed 80% of my stock positions in Jan +34% for 9mths. S&P still open but I’ll close it this week.

No rate cut in March nor the months immediately following will cause the S&P to selloff.

In my 2020 strategy I had 3 inflationary waves. My strategy ends in the 2032-2034 window. 2nd upswing latest Mar 2025 which means an event happens prior to this date. Next Recession window remains in 2027.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10276 on: January 22, 2024, 08:40:57 AM »
I closed 80% of my stock positions in Jan +34% for 9mths. S&P still open but I’ll close it this week.

No rate cut in March nor the months immediately following will cause the S&P to selloff.

In my 2020 strategy I had 3 inflationary waves. My strategy ends in the 2032-2034 window. 2nd upswing latest Mar 2025 which means an event happens prior to this date. Next Recession window remains in 2027.

I'm expecting this year to be very choppy so mostly sitting it out. If we see a second inflationary wave then I think that will be it, basically not a repeat of 70's with 3 waves. Remember if inflation was measured the same way as in the 70's then the recent wave would have easily reached double figure percentages, so it's already very different from the 70s.

Anyway ETFs flows are still looking good for BTC. There was some evidence that the GBTC selling was FTX liquidating its $1.1b in GBTC holdings. Big if true


Grape Ape

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10277 on: January 22, 2024, 08:52:06 AM »
This is one of the best threads on this site - the guys in here really know what they are talking about.  If I ever decide to stop fucking around casually with this stuff, I could make real $.

But since I'm still casual:

I bought 1.3 ETH for $900.

Should I dump it now?  I'm just basing this on stuff I've read here where it's been said BTC will drop again before it goes back up.  I'm guessing ETH will follow suit.
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loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10278 on: January 22, 2024, 09:07:14 AM »
I thought the value of BTC was supposed to skyrocket if the ETFs were approved.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10279 on: January 22, 2024, 09:11:58 AM »
This is one of the best threads on this site - the guys in here really know what they are talking about.


Thanks, I appreciate that.  8)

Stock market melt up continues today. Clown world.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10280 on: January 22, 2024, 09:30:34 AM »
This is one of the best threads on this site - the guys in here really know what they are talking about.  If I ever decide to stop fucking around casually with this stuff, I could make real $.

But since I'm still casual:

I bought 1.3 ETH for $900.

Should I dump it now?  I'm just basing this on stuff I've read here where it's been said BTC will drop again before it goes back up.  I'm guessing ETH will follow suit.

Numbers aren't adding up right now so no one really knows what's going on and if they do it's in their best interest not to tell anyone.

So basically do nothing. If you have a good entry (like you do) just ride it out. If you're waiting to buy then just wait until things settle down.

Grape Ape

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10281 on: January 22, 2024, 09:38:47 AM »
Numbers aren't adding up right now so no one really knows what's going and if they do it's in their best interest not to tell anyone.

So basically do nothing. If you have a good entry (like you do) just ride it out. If you're waiting to buy then just until things settle down.

Thanks.

No I was just being greedy = figuring I'd dump and then rebuy.

Basically playing stupid and thinking I can time the market lol.
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GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10282 on: January 22, 2024, 03:24:23 PM »
I thought the value of BTC was supposed to skyrocket if the ETFs were approved.

My guess is that will be more of a long term phenomenon. I think the average investor has their stocks and mutual funds in their retirement accounts and they may not make short term trades. I put some money in bitcoin once they approved the ETFs. Bitcoin is down since then so the ETF is as well, but it has only been 10 days or so. If I'm still down after a year or two then I was wrong. But I think more people will get into bitcoin now that they have a way to do so through their usual brokerage.   

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10283 on: January 22, 2024, 05:10:33 PM »
My guess is that will be more of a long term phenomenon. I think the average investor has their stocks and mutual funds in their retirement accounts and they may not make short term trades. I put some money in bitcoin once they approved the ETFs. Bitcoin is down since then so the ETF is as well, but it has only been 10 days or so. If I'm still down after a year or two then I was wrong. But I think more people will get into bitcoin now that they have a way to do so through their usual brokerage.

Here is only one example of what I kept hearing and reading from experts:


With ETF Approval Odds At 90%, Major Bank Says Bitcoin Price Hits $100,000 in 2024

NOV 29, 2023

"A leading analyst with Bloomberg has confirmed that there is still a 90% likelihood that at least one highly-anticipated spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) product is approved for the U.S. by January 10, 2024.

And as investor enthusiasm around such a product continues to build, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has doubled down on its prediction that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 on its heels."


https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/etf-approval-odds-at-90-percent-bank-says-bitcoin-price-hits-100000-in-2024

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10284 on: January 22, 2024, 06:15:57 PM »
Here is only one example of what I kept hearing and reading from experts:


With ETF Approval Odds At 90%, Major Bank Says Bitcoin Price Hits $100,000 in 2024

NOV 29, 2023

"A leading analyst with Bloomberg has confirmed that there is still a 90% likelihood that at least one highly-anticipated spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) product is approved for the U.S. by January 10, 2024.

And as investor enthusiasm around such a product continues to build, British multinational bank Standard Chartered has doubled down on its prediction that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 on its heels."


https://www.thestreet.com/crypto/markets/etf-approval-odds-at-90-percent-bank-says-bitcoin-price-hits-100000-in-2024

You are quoting an article that's quoting an article about a price prediction a so called expert made. Maybe that confused you or maybe your reading comprehension isn't up to to it, but this is the key quote.

“Things are going as expected, according to Standard Chartered Bank, reiterating its April forecast that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024,

It's January right now. HTH

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10285 on: January 22, 2024, 07:19:38 PM »
You are quoting an article that's quoting an article about a price prediction a so called expert made. Maybe that confused you or maybe your reading comprehension isn't up to to it, but this is the key quote.

“Things are going as expected, according to Standard Chartered Bank, reiterating its April forecast that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024,

It's January right now. HTH

Fair enough!  That’s an article someone sent me back in November, and I should have read the entire thing before posting it here as an example, bad example.

What I kept hearing is that as soon as ETFs were approved, people would rush to buy BTC anticipating its value to go up, which in itself would drive up its value.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10286 on: January 23, 2024, 04:27:00 AM »
Fair enough!  That’s an article someone sent me back in November, and I should have read the entire thing before posting it here as an example, bad example.

What I kept hearing is that as soon as ETFs were approved, people would rush to buy BTC anticipating its value to go up, which in itself would drive up its value.

You were right, that is exactly what mainstream said.

My outline of Saylor and Barry will come back to haunt people.

I warned about price suppression when the ETF went live. Grayscale has dumped 90,000 coins so all those incoming ETF funds got a free ride.

We were at 48k. ETF launched. Now at 38k. Bullish price suppression.

Saylor total legend dumping on shareholders is pretty funny.

loco

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10287 on: January 23, 2024, 05:00:23 AM »
You were right, that is exactly what mainstream said.

My outline of Saylor and Barry will come back to haunt people.

I warned about price suppression when the ETF went live. Grayscale has dumped 90,000 coins so all those incoming ETF funds got a free ride.

We were at 48k. ETF launched. Now at 38k. Bullish price suppression.

Saylor total legend dumping on shareholders is pretty funny.

Interesting.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10288 on: January 23, 2024, 11:25:37 AM »
Fair enough!  That’s an article someone sent me back in November, and I should have read the entire thing before posting it here as an example, bad example.

What I kept hearing is that as soon as ETFs were approved, people would rush to buy BTC anticipating its value to go up, which in itself would drive up its value.

The ETF filings/approval was a narrative. It was either gonna set up a bull run or it wasn't. No one really knows when ETF inflows will actually start sending BTC price up. It could happen tomorrow or a year from now. Again no one really knows, but the way the ETFs have been set up it's something that will eventually  happen and it's not something that can be priced in.

The next narrative (mentioned in the article) will be ol' reliable and that's the halving in April. Typically BTC price might spike before then and some might say it's finally because of ETFs. Again no one really knows so be dubious about any such claims. The $100K price mentioned still fits the price trends with prior halving cycles, so even if BTC gets to that figure it might have had very little to do with the ETFs.

ETFs are still however very bullish for BTC, but only for the very long term holder as in someone who is holding for years if not a decades. Anyone else is gonna get chewed up and spat out by the price action.

GymnJuice

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10289 on: January 23, 2024, 05:39:55 PM »
Quote
The crypto asset manager that forced U.S. regulators’ hand in approving bitcoin exchange-traded funds has lost billions from their launch.

Investors cashed out $2.8 billion from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust after it converted into an ETF on Jan. 11, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data through Friday.

In contrast, nine newly launched spot-bitcoin ETFs have drawn about $4 billion in inflows within their first six trading days, with funds from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments each attracting more than $1 billion in inflows.

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs earlier this month after repeatedly rejecting applications for such funds on the basis that the underlying market was susceptible to fraud. When approving the bitcoin ETFs, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said a court ruling last year in favor of Grayscale had compelled the change.

For years, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, known by its ticker symbol GBTC, was one of the few options for individual investors to get exposure to bitcoin without having to purchase the cryptocurrency directly. But GBTC wasn’t an ETF, and investors couldn’t easily redeem shares for the underlying bitcoin. The fund’s shares would trade at a premium or a discount to the underlying value of the bitcoin it held. Since early 2021, the fund had traded at an increasingly steep discount to the underlying bitcoin it held, peaking at nearly 50% in December 2022.

Grayscale sued the SEC in 2022 after the agency rejected its previous bid to turn its bitcoin trust into an ETF. The fund’s discount has narrowed to near zero after it transformed into an ETF.

Investors taking profits on GBTC’s price gain and moving to lower-fee competitors have helped drag crypto markets lower, according to analysts at JPMorgan.

Crypto investors had hoped that the new bitcoin ETFs would unlock a gush of money from individual investors into bitcoin, boosting the price of the digital currency. But since the SEC approval, the price of bitcoin has fallen over 10%. The largest cryptocurrency traded at $39,852 Monday afternoon, down from $46,000 on Jan. 10 when the funds were approved.

An intense fee war among asset managers had broken out even before the funds’ launch. While Grayscale slashed the fee on its bitcoin trust to 1.5% from 2%, rivals including BlackRock and Fidelity offered promotional rates as low as zero for the first several months.

Michael Sonnenshein, Grayscale’s chief executive, said the fund’s 1.5% fee is warranted given its “liquidity, tight spreads, and a decadelong track record.”

George Bodine, a 67-year-old retired airline captain in Covington, Ky., said he would sell his GBTC shares soon and reinvest the proceeds in similar funds offered by BlackRock, Fidelity and VanEck. An investor in Grayscale’s fund since 2020, Bodine said GBTC’s 1.5% management fee makes it an outlier among competitors and “a grievous mistake.”

One reason for some investors to hold on to GBTC despite the high fee might be taxes. Investors who own GBTC in taxable accounts and are considering switching to a cheaper ETF could get hit with big capital-gains tax bills. This is especially true for those who bought the fund while it was trading at a big discount and are now sitting on huge gains.
Bankrupt crypto exchange FTX sold a large portion of its GBTC holdings, according to people familiar with the matter.

FTX held more than 22 million units of GBTC worth $597 million as of October last year, according to bankruptcy filings. FTX declined to comment.

John Hoffman, Grayscale’s managing director of sales and distribution, said it has only been a few days since GBTC launched as the largest spot-bitcoin ETF with $28 billion in assets, and investors tend to use large capital-markets ETFs in a variety of investing strategies.

“We anticipate GBTC’s diverse shareholder base will continue to deploy strategies that impact inflows and outflows,” he said.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/grayscale-led-the-fight-for-bitcoin-etfs-now-its-fund-is-bleeding-billions-c9c5d925

From WSJ. Expands on what other posters said above about why the price has dropped since the ETF approval.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10290 on: January 24, 2024, 07:08:35 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/grayscale-led-the-fight-for-bitcoin-etfs-now-its-fund-is-bleeding-billions-c9c5d925

From WSJ. Expands on what other posters said above about why the price has dropped since the ETF approval.

FTX may not be the only sellers. There are a lot of people owed a lot of money/btc from the 2022 contagion unwind. MTGox are also possibly looking to use the liquidity the ETFs are bringing to settle some claims.

gib

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10291 on: January 26, 2024, 02:22:38 AM »
As you all know I was majorly correct with my last big call in October 2023 when BTC rose from 25K to 45K in the months following my prediction that a surge was about to occur.

I am now regularly getting PM's from people wanting me to tell them other price predictions / dates etc.

I don't really like responding to individual messages on BTC to people - don't have the time, and prefer to keep it all on one thread. What it does show me though is that there are numerous lurkers who read this thread but who don't make a single comment themselves. So to you guys - don't be shy - just post your question here.

Second, it is impossible to make accurate predictions. General trends yes, (for example, we know BTC is VERY LIKELY to continuously rise over time). But the more specific the question, and the more limited the time period, the more it is hard to give a specific answer.

Having said that, here is what I expect is most likely to happen over the next few years.

1. Over the next 3 months I expect we will see volatility, (both up and down) as the halving approaches, with the price by the halving being more likely up from now, rather then down.

2. At some point, (and it could even occur before the halving - indeed it might even start to occur in the next few weeks) we will see the most beautiful trend start to emerge of almost consistently daily gains of around 1%.

So at current price, around $400 daily, and then at 50K $500 daily, and at 100K $1000 daily. This will be a beautiful phase for BTC and any Bitcoiner. Of course it won't be a perfect trend on an exact daily basis, but a nice overall trend.

Why this will occur should be obvious - basically it will be a function of BTC Hodling, combined with ETF inflows vs outflows stabilizing then the a BTC ETF flippening occurring, where inflows on a daily basis, slowly but surely, exceed net outflows...

 

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10292 on: January 27, 2024, 04:17:57 AM »
Fully agree! It amazes me always the idiots out there with conspiracy theories in situations where what is about to happen is blatantly obvious. Once in a lifetime opportunity here, and yet people are still not piling in. These are the same people who will pile in post 100K lol!

I mean... the fact that they articulate this very point on and on and on tells you how crazy they are. Almost like they have no choice but to double down on the own BS.

Big Money make money on the market going up and the market going down. Most people, probably 90-95%, participate in the market only on the long side. What market makers do, or want to do, is help create insane overextended (bull) markets and then shut them down with brute force. And this is exactly how Big Money are going to play it this time around again: they're going to let Bitcoin go up gradually until we break ATH (wave 3) and then retail are going to come in (late as usual) and help overextend the bull market to heights that will boggle your mind (5th wave). This time around, the retail clients include retirement funds with 100-500k of available cash that are going to propel the price into space. I would not be surprised if, at peak hysteria during this bull market, there's a 20-30k green candle. And then, they will introduce something else that will shut down the overextended bull market and signal the beginning of the bear market. Important thing is that you get out at an amount you are comfortable with. DO NOT time the market.

So, in essence, Big Money is going to help generate an insane bull market this time around and then shut it down with the introduction of some derivative product they can trade while you and I sleep. They will make an insane amount of money on the way up BUT especially on the way down. BE IN now and then sell when you quintuple your money. This is most likely a 5x bull.

And then watch gold. If BTC goes into the 200k territory and gold dumps, when BTC goes tits-up, the money WILL flow back into gold. BE IN BOTH PLAYS. Gold is being held back big time. The price can't seem to get past $2,100 without a sell off... and this is with a war going on AND us at DEFON 3. I tell you, the Big Money play is going to be Bitcoin to 200k+, gold to $1000 and then the inverse, BTC to 50k and gold to 15k. All within 2-3 years. 

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10293 on: January 27, 2024, 04:31:29 AM »
I thought the value of BTC was supposed to skyrocket if the ETFs were approved.

No, the halving will.

BTC will go into the stratosphere when the tens of thousands of financial advisors out there in the family offices or at local banks sell the ETFs. It takes time you know. Just because you build a car doesn't mean you sold it. 

Market makers make money on trading fees. What they want is a huge ramp up and then a slam dunk of a dump. That's how they make a ton of money. If people think they want to taper the BTC price and shut it down FROM HERE, at 41k, I have a beach and a statue to sell.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10294 on: January 27, 2024, 04:35:40 AM »
As you all know I was majorly correct with my last big call in October 2023 when BTC rose from 25K to 45K in the months following my prediction that a surge was about to occur.

I am now regularly getting PM's from people wanting me to tell them other price predictions / dates etc.

I don't really like responding to individual messages on BTC to people - don't have the time, and prefer to keep it all on one thread. What it does show me though is that there are numerous lurkers who read this thread but who don't make a single comment themselves. So to you guys - don't be shy - just post your question here.

Second, it is impossible to make accurate predictions. General trends yes, (for example, we know BTC is VERY LIKELY to continuously rise over time). But the more specific the question, and the more limited the time period, the more it is hard to give a specific answer.

Having said that, here is what I expect is most likely to happen over the next few years.

1. Over the next 3 months I expect we will see volatility, (both up and down) as the halving approaches, with the price by the halving being more likely up from now, rather then down.

2. At some point, (and it could even occur before the halving - indeed it might even start to occur in the next few weeks) we will see the most beautiful trend start to emerge of almost consistently daily gains of around 1%.

So at current price, around $400 daily, and then at 50K $500 daily, and at 100K $1000 daily. This will be a beautiful phase for BTC and any Bitcoiner. Of course it won't be a perfect trend on an exact daily basis, but a nice overall trend.

Why this will occur should be obvious - basically it will be a function of BTC Hodling, combined with ETF inflows vs outflows stabilizing then the a BTC ETF flippening occurring, where inflows on a daily basis, slowly but surely, exceed net outflows...

Dude, I was in GBTC back in 2019 and... let me tell you, when money starts flowing in, it's insane. Like literally insane. In three days, I went from having enough money to buy a Harley Davidson to being able to buy a fully loaded Range Rover.

I can't even imagine what it would be like if people are NOT in the play and see this happening...

Slapper

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10295 on: January 27, 2024, 04:43:41 AM »
so even if BTC gets to that figure it might have had very little to do with the ETFs.

No, the ETFs will play a pivotal role in getting BTC past 100k. When someone buys a share of an ETF, that buy generates a parallel buy of BTC so that the ETF sponsors/managers can match NAV at the end of the day. People buying the BTC ETFs is equivalent to buying BTC.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10296 on: January 27, 2024, 05:12:28 AM »
Dude, I was in GBTC back in 2019 and... let me tell you, when money starts flowing in, it's insane. Like literally insane. In three days, I went from having enough money to buy a Harley Davidson to being able to buy a fully loaded Range Rover.

I can't even imagine what it would be like if people are NOT in the play and see this happening...

My wife has a Range Rover Sport, it's a piece  of shit.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10297 on: January 27, 2024, 09:01:24 AM »
No, the ETFs will play a pivotal role in getting BTC past 100k. When someone buys a share of an ETF, that buy generates a parallel buy of BTC so that the ETF sponsors/managers can match NAV at the end of the day. People buying the BTC ETFs is equivalent to buying BTC.

There are still $billions sidelined sitting in stable coins. The move from 25k to 49k saw about a quarter of the those stable coins move into BTC. The recent move from 49k to 39k obviously saw the opposite.

Everything else being equal then if the majority of that money in stables were to find it's way back into BTC the price would easily be at new highs and probably closer to 75k. Fomo from new entrants would  take it higher.

ETFs just make the last part easier.


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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10298 on: January 27, 2024, 10:09:06 AM »
My wife has a Range Rover Sport, it's a piece  of shit.
Yep. I had to have one and the engine blew at 38K miles and they wanted 24k to fix it. I sold it for a big loss.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #10299 on: January 28, 2024, 07:41:14 PM »
Dude, I was in GBTC back in 2019 and... let me tell you, when money starts flowing in, it's insane. Like literally insane. In three days, I went from having enough money to buy a Harley Davidson to being able to buy a fully loaded Range Rover.

I can't even imagine what it would be like if people are NOT in the play and see this happening...

We already saw the premium to Nav close then what followed was the move for the new ETFs to fill up while Grayscale sold off and price dumped to 38k. In other words 99% were wrong about the ETF launch and we got the price suppression I warned about.

On a basis of measuring the outcome of the ETF vs predictions I’d say it’s not looking great for the 99% on future predictions of mooning.

Q4 2024 ATH then watch the total destruction unfold in 2025. Blackrock have about 50,000 BTC meanwhile Grayscale hold 550,000 BTC. Oh Lordy 🙏


Do people really think we won’t ever have a -70% drop again? The ETF brings in average Joe funds….. buyers who can’t stomach a -20% S&P drop and yet magically they turn into HoDLers to ride a -70% Bitcoin bear market for a couple of years 😂  the next bear market will absolutely suck.

To lower volatility you need greater depth of spread in holdings. The reason it does -80%+ drops is because so few hold so much. At 42k the spread sucks but at 3k we will get a way deeper spread which reduces volatility and actually makes it appealing.