Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!

[obsidian]

100B inflow would probably generate a market cap of 1T.

Market cap is last sale price x coins. It doesn’t reflect total capital investment, therefore less capital is required to jack the price. With such low market participation in a short time frame we probably only need 100B if that to jack the price of ETH to 10k+. It will also dump just as fast when money flows out.

The other one is scarcity vs price. The majority believe scarcity drives price, the more scarce something is, the higher the price. Supply/demand.

My argument is the market participants determine the value at any given point in time. At some price point they will also determine it no longer becomes more valuable regardless of scarcity which sets a ceiling on the asset market cap.

Models using scarcity as the primary driver will break at some point. There are always sellers in a market and there is a reason assets classes max out. Diamond supply is held back in order to control price but that is a reaction to the market deciding the peak value of diamonds. If they made them more scarce it wouldn’t drive up the price, people would simply buy less.

The market sets the price ceilings. Hence markets can overheat and the bulk of participants stop buying and it’s only a small last few who pump it up, then the market corrects to where the majority are happy to buy.

Ok that's interesting thanks for clarifying. How does that work? Why would only 100B needed to move Ethereum's market cap from 200B to 1T?

Bank of America strategists suggested to Bloomberg that the price of BTC can be moved 1% for just $93 million. And it is estimated $40 billion dollars of the $1.9 trillion stimulus could find it's way into cryptos!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-could-boom-430-ethereum-133606997.html

[Mayday]

Ok that's interesting thanks for clarifying. How does that work? Why would only 100B needed to move Ethereum's market cap from 200B to 1T?

Bank of America strategists suggested to Bloomberg that the price of BTC can be moved 1% for just $93 million. And it is estimated $40 billion dollars of the $1.9 trillion stimulus could find it's way into cryptos!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-could-boom-430-ethereum-133606997.html

Say you bought ETH for $500. If someone buys today for $1,800 Do you receive $1,300? No. Only the person they purchase the ETH from receives the $1,800.

Lets create 1M gibcoins and he has all of them. I determine they are valued at $1ea and I buy 500k. The market cap is now 1M with a capital injection of 500k (2x). You then come along and you determine they are worth $10ea and you buy 100k for 1M. Market cap is now 10M with a 1M capital injection 10x).

That’s how it works. Same with the sharemarket. Volatility is inverse to liquidity where high volatility results from low liquidity and vice versa. It’s why bond markets are the most liquid in the world and also have the lowest yield. Big money flattens yield curves but increases liquidity.


The above also leads  into my posts about scarcity vs price.

We are seeing a ‘scarcity’ valuation reaction to Bitcoin right now.

Coins leaving exchanges = price is too cheap (what we are seeing currently)
Coins entering exchanges = price is high and a great time to get out

Supply has been leaving exchanges for longer than any previous crypto history. Even at 60k, coins were still leaving exchanges and decreasing supply. At the point where we see that trend reverse and supply increases, we will have a short period of lag before the market cycle top.

Does that help?

[OneMoreRep]

Bitcoin is taking a beating today.

Seems like a lot of media outlets are ganging up on it and Jerome Powell's latest statements aren't helping.

"1"

[Mayday]

Bitcoin is taking a beating today.

Seems like a lot of media outlets are ganging up on it and Jerome Powell's latest statements aren't helping.

"1"

They are wrecking anyone going long of late. 138M liquidated in 10mins yesterday. People don’t learn. Don’t go 10x margin then go to bed lol.

[Bindare_Dundat]

Bitcoin is taking a beating today.

Seems like a lot of media outlets are ganging up on it and Jerome Powell's latest statements aren't helping.

"1"

Well the media is certainly a source i trust. What did Powell say this time 

[OneMoreRep]

Well the media is certainly a source i trust. What did Powell say this time

The media is effective because it induces fear by way of misinformation. That's their best talent.

Powell said: "Crypto assets are highly volatile - see bitcoin - and therefore not really useful as a store of value"  "They're not backed by anything. They're more of an asset for speculation."

Now, I think our FIAT currency is just as volatile and losing value by the minute, but Powell needs to preach the sermon of the powerful dollar, as he holds the keys to the printing press. His description of BitCoin as an asset for speculation is harmful, as it makes investors worry that their money can disappear overnight, which in some instances it has when BitCoin drops by > 10%.

"1"

[Bindare_Dundat]

The media is effective because it induces fear by way of misinformation. That's their best talent.

Powell said: "Crypto assets are highly volatile - see bitcoin - and therefore not really useful as a store of value"  "They're not backed by anything. They're more of an asset for speculation."

Now, I think our FIAT currency is just as volatile and losing value by the minute, but Powell needs to preach the sermon of the powerful dollar, as he holds the keys to the printing press. His description of BitCoin as an asset for speculation is harmful, as it makes investors worry that their money can disappear overnight, which in some instances it has when BitCoin drops by > 10%.

"1"

Thanks for the summary.

[gib]

The fact that Powell even mentions Bitcoin in a testimony should be a telling sign to its future importance.

[gib]

Poor. Old. Mr Anabolic...

[obsidian]

It is always useful to have a second opinion on matters. The dollar is losing value though. So would people really want to get out of cryptos back into an asset like the dollar that's being devalued? I am not so sure about that. I sell all my cryptos what now? Oh shit I have dollars! What the fuck am I going to do with it? I either better spend it asap or invest it. In what though?!

[gib]

Well that's exactly what happens. Anyone who buys fiat with Bitcoin suddenly realizes they are holding in inferior asset destined to decline in value. So they often then quickly cash out of fiat and get back into the security of Bitcoin again. Its best just to HODL in my view...

[Mayday]

Your view changes depending on what your money can do for you vs what holding in crypto can do.

Life happens.

Just keep in mind that in a few weeks from now we will see the supply on exchanges begin to increase as the whales start to dump their holdings. Yes we will have a bull mad bullrun but we will have a massive dump afterwards.

[obsidian]

Your view changes depending on what your money can do for you vs what holding in crypto can do.

Life happens.

Just keep in mind that in a few weeks from now we will see the supply on exchanges begin to increase as the whales start to dump their holdings. Yes we will have a bull mad bullrun but we will have a massive dump afterwards.

Where do you keep track of this? Link? It would be a good idea to front run that in order to hopefully buy more at the dip. But the correction would have to be significant enough. I have diamond hands but not going to sit and miss opportunities. I already have to pay taxes on some of my trades this year so I might as well trade a few more times.

[Bindare_Dundat]

Once this week is done, it'll be green across the board.

[Theoak*]

Where do you keep track of this? Link? It would be a good idea to front run that in order to hopefully buy more at the dip. But the correction would have to be significant enough. I have diamond hands but not going to sit and miss opportunities. I already have to pay taxes on some of my trades this year so I might as well trade a few more times.

I cant speak  for Mayday as I dont trade.  Glassnode onchain data analytics is a good starting point.

[Griffith]

Poor. Old. Mr Anabolic...

LOL at the British Pound.

[Griffith]

Biden administration considering a new 3 trillion dollar stimulus package:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-eyes-3-trillion-package-for-infrastructure-schools-families-01616462242

[Mayday]

Where do you keep track of this? Link? It would be a good idea to front run that in order to hopefully buy more at the dip. But the correction would have to be significant enough. I have diamond hands but not going to sit and miss opportunities. I already have to pay taxes on some of my trades this year so I might as well trade a few more times.

Glassnode for market data as the oak mentioned and I use TradingView for charts.

I wasn’t using anything 6 weeks ago and got burned following some people who got things wrong so I search out the data myself and consider what I feel are the key drivers.

This time around I got the peak and the dip model pretty bang on. I had another 100k in at 46k and 48k so I was pretty happy and almost zero stress for me this time around.

Depending on what I see at around 80k I might trade my alt coin positions outside of ETH.

[Griffith]

Glassnode for market data as the oak mentioned and I use TradingView for charts.

I wasn’t using anything 6 weeks ago and got burned following some people who got things wrong so I search out the data myself and consider what I feel are the key drivers.

This time around I got the peak and the dip model pretty bang on. I had another 100k in at 46k and 48k so I was pretty happy and almost zero stress for me this time around.

Depending on what I see at around 80k I might trade my alt coin positions outside of ETH.

Do you think BTC at 54-55k is near the bottom in this pullback?

And what timeframe do you see BTC potentially reaching 80k?

[Mayday]

Do you think BTC at 54-55k is near the bottom in this pullback?

And what timeframe do you see BTC potentially reaching 80k?

I did this for my bottom target:
March is historically a negative growth month.
Feb closed at 44k.
Fib retracement was getting down to 41k and we have 39k-42k resistance/support which is also around a 29% wick. I had 46.7k as the first dip which is typically smaller that a second.

Then I considered the huge buying pressure of late. I figured it was possible a 2nd dip wouldn’t happen or it would be weaker than the first.

That’s how I came to my plan.

For this ‘weak’ dip I had the bottom at 52.8k and I see a wick to 52.9k so it’s pretty close and it did bounce rather than break it.

54.5k has heavy support but if that breaks it’ll probably head towards 49k I think.

[Bindare_Dundat]

Id be very surprised to see it go below 50k. But who really knows?

[gib]

50 seems like a pretty decent base to build a new support level.

But even it if fell to 10K, that would still make it 50% on the year form the 5K low. I could imagine some scenarios where we got a fall to 20K, or even 10K. But the longer term direction seems ever upwards over time. If we get another bid drop I'm loading up the truck to hover up those Sats...

[Mayday]

12,000 coins pulled from the exchange. Going to be someone Massive, a new market participant perhaps? No announcements yet so perhaps they haven’t finished buying? Oracle?

2017 coin reduction on exchanges prior to bullrun was 10% 1M down to 0.9M
2021 coin reduction on exchanges so far is 22.5% —> 3.1M down to 2.4M

[Theoak*]

Something is going on, blockfi just dropped the interest rate on my coins to .5% as of the beginning of April. (Shifting over to ledn for 6%) More and more players taking long positions and forgoing shorting the market.

[Mayday]

Something is going on, blockfi just dropped the interest rate on my coins to .5% as of the beginning of April. (Shifting over to ledn for 6%) More and more players taking long positions and forgoing shorting the market.

I’m just not feeling bad that your minimum 1.1M in BTC is only earning you 0.5% interest lol.