Author Topic: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!  (Read 765195 times)

Theoak*

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8650 on: May 09, 2022, 06:18:28 PM »
ETH circulating supply is around 120 million
BTC circulating supply is around 19 million

There's 6.3 times more ETH in supply than Bitcoin

1/6.3 = 0.16 rounded off

0.073 ETH is undervalued against BTC in my opinion. To be honest ETH should be at $5,000 right now if only the supply of ETH vs BTC is looked at. ETH has other benefits like staking which provides incentives to hold. The ETH merge narrative, all the use cases, network effect, the potential deflation in the horizon, and the reduced energy consumption in the switch to POS.

Interesting that ZEC has the same max supply cap as BTC at 21 million.

I personally hold zero BTC. It's not interesting to me. Dorsey claims ETH is not interesting to him because it has many single points of failure. First he never really gave examples. BTC's weakness to me is the high energy consumption and the question about what will secure the network once the last bit of BTC has been mined. As a store of value the slow transaction speed is not an issue with BTC IMO.

World requires 160000TW energyper year to run. Total btc network runs off 200TW per year

USA alone runs off 10000TW per year, 6000 of that is wasted.


Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8651 on: May 09, 2022, 07:37:58 PM »
Yeah I think BTC will win the energy FUD battle (still rather hold ETH and just bought more)

The internet in the 90s had the same energy FUD about it too.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8652 on: May 09, 2022, 11:04:38 PM »
ETH circulating supply is around 120 million
BTC circulating supply is around 19 million

There's 6.3 times more ETH in supply than Bitcoin

1/6.3 = 0.16 rounded off

0.073 ETH is undervalued against BTC in my opinion. To be honest ETH should be at $5,000 right now if only the supply of ETH vs BTC is looked at. ETH has other benefits like staking which provides incentives to hold. The ETH merge narrative, all the use cases, network effect, the potential deflation in the horizon, and the reduced energy consumption in the switch to POS.

Interesting that ZEC has the same max supply cap as BTC at 21 million.

Pricing is belief first THEN supply/demand based.

Funny that I got slammed on Twitter for daring to disagree with that PlanB guy when I argued on chain won’t work because the value is derived from belief first and not supply/demand determined.

Now we have less coins on exchanges as peak yet price is 60% down…. Some dude even gave me the ‘I’m a scientist so I just follow the data and it clearly says BTC supply shortage’…..


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8653 on: May 10, 2022, 02:29:50 AM »
Pricing is belief first THEN supply/demand based.

Funny that I got slammed on Twitter for daring to disagree with that PlanB guy when I argued on chain won’t work because the value is derived from belief first and not supply/demand determined.

Now we have less coins on exchanges as peak yet price is 60% down…. Some dude even gave me the ‘I’m a scientist so I just follow the data and it clearly says BTC supply shortage’…..
Raoul Pal looks at the network effect and how many people are using it and thinks there is a direct correlation between the network effect and the value of an asset. I think he is on to something. There's a lot more activity on Ethereum than Bitcoin. I get it Bitcoin is a store of value and not trying to do all these fancy things. Well I guess the likes of Dorsey are trying to do DEFI with Bitcoin. I still maintain 1 ETH should at the very least be 1/6th the value of BTC. And if the supply of ETH shrinks than even more.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/jack-dorsey-to-launch-a-defi-product-on-bitcoin-after-changes-for-smart-contracts-in-taproot-update-was-presented

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8654 on: May 10, 2022, 02:35:50 AM »
World requires 160000TW energyper year to run. Total btc network runs off 200TW per year

USA alone runs off 10000TW per year, 6000 of that is wasted.
That 200 TW per year is only going to increase. All this power that is wasted - is Bitcoin mining tapping into that? Or tapping into sources where there is a scarcity of power? Also peak demand varies depending on the time of day. A certain segment of the world will need more power during the day when cooling is needed or most people are awake. So Bitcoin mining might use wasted energy in the evening and in the daytime stress the grid.

But what's a better narrative? A Proof of Stake layer 1 that uses a fraction of the energy or a Proof of Work layer 1 like Bitcoin that requires a lot of constant power draw to sustain the network? It remains to be seen how secure POS vs POW is. There are proponents on both sides of the argument.

Theoak*

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8655 on: May 10, 2022, 03:59:15 AM »
That 200 TW per year is only going to increase. All this power that is wasted - is Bitcoin mining tapping into that? Or tapping into sources where there is a scarcity of power? Also peak demand varies depending on the time of day. A certain segment of the world will need more power during the day when cooling is needed or most people are awake. So Bitcoin mining might use wasted energy in the evening and in the daytime stress the grid.

But what's a better narrative? A Proof of Stake layer 1 that uses a fraction of the energy or a Proof of Work layer 1 like Bitcoin that requires a lot of constant power draw to sustain the network? It remains to be seen how secure POS vs POW is. There are proponents on both sides of the argument.


If you're going to disrupt the legacy system be prepared for them to come after you. Remember email first came out. US government and postmaster general said the most effecient and secure  way to send information was via US mail not email. Email needs servers that requires lots of energy and is going to destroy the planet. They actually went to court wanting to stop emails because  per email burnt 10pounds of coal! They wanted to implement an email stamp tax!

Same thing with the internet, those who had a monopoly on information used the same excuse, requires servers too much energy every 5 megabytes of information burned a pound of coal. They tried to shut off the internet and email using falsified energy argument.


So you  basically have btc running on 200tw hours of energy compared to global energy consumption of 160,000tw hours. BTC uses .00018%. It's a rounding error, see what they're doing?  So saying btc uses more energy than a small country is a marketing ploy and outright lie. WEF said in 2017 that by 2020 btc will consume all the world's energy....not a lot, literally said all the world's energy. It's horseshit scaremongering.

Unlike traditional legacy systems which you  cant turn off the grid without severe ramifications, they all have fail safes , generators and all sorts of stuff so they don't go off-line. Bitcoin miners don't care if they go off-line, they have what you call a "flexible load" . If there is an emergency you can shut them off first. They can give power back to the grid which means bitcoin miners are the first line of defence. So having a bitcoin mining facility makes your grid stronger than any other because the bitcoin miners will be first to turn off. Then flick a switch and turn right  back on within several minutes without  a hiccup or damage to equipment.

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8656 on: May 10, 2022, 04:40:16 AM »
Raoul Pal looks at the network effect and how many people are using it and thinks there is a direct correlation between the network effect and the value of an asset. I think he is on to something. There's a lot more activity on Ethereum than Bitcoin. I get it Bitcoin is a store of value and not trying to do all these fancy things. Well I guess the likes of Dorsey are trying to do DEFI with Bitcoin. I still maintain 1 ETH should at the very least be 1/6th the value of BTC. And if the supply of ETH shrinks than even more.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/jack-dorsey-to-launch-a-defi-product-on-bitcoin-after-changes-for-smart-contracts-in-taproot-update-was-presented

I like Raoul a lot on his economic stuff but he really fucks around on crypto whether on purpose or not I’m not sure.

The network stopped growing back in March 2021 but does he say anything? Not really. All of these narratives work until they don’t.

I like ETH more than BTC. It’s ts looking more like BTC is tapping out and everyone is late, not early. The BTC dominance got crushed this last run and will happen next run meaning less headroom for BTC. Also means less retail FOMO on BTC and more on alts.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8657 on: May 10, 2022, 05:11:06 AM »
Cash is the place to be. Has been since the start of the year and will be the case until there’s a shift in the trend.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8658 on: May 10, 2022, 05:12:14 AM »
Then again, you can buy some Peloton. It on sale, right?😂😂

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8659 on: May 10, 2022, 05:13:23 AM »
😂

OneMoreRep

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8660 on: May 10, 2022, 05:36:37 AM »
For the new guys that aren't finance savvy, much of this drop in the markets and crypto ecosystem is due to numerous hedge funds having to liquidate. This in turns causes sell offs which are driving prices down aggressively.

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a_pupil

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8661 on: May 10, 2022, 06:27:02 AM »
Do you guys think the tactic for the average Joe of holding your money in an index fund changes in this kind of a market?

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8662 on: May 10, 2022, 06:40:48 AM »
Do you guys think the tactic for the average Joe of holding your money in an index fund changes in this kind of a market?

I don't think so.

This particular period in time will seem grim for some people, but short of you being of retirement age and having to collect distributions on your pensions or needing to cash out your index funds, you should be ok if you wait it out and continue to dollar cost average in. I wouldn't go crazy buying shit on discount, because it's hard (almost impossible) to determine what the bottom will be. Dollar cost averaging should allow you to benefit during these times without losing too much money.

These things happen every so often and we've seen them occur under different disguises. The key to remember is that we saw similar in 1999, 2001, 2008 and 2020 and then we turned the corner and recovered.

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Thin Lizzy

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8663 on: May 10, 2022, 01:23:59 PM »

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8664 on: May 10, 2022, 04:12:46 PM »
Cash is the place to be. Has been since the start of the year and will be the case until there’s a shift in the trend.

Made an FX play start of year and parked my Ozzie pesos in USD waiting for the sell off to cause the DXY to rise. Up 5.4%. Hooray for me.

I wouldn’t be sure about some of these stocks that took a hit getting a leg up in the next run. The big names, sure. So Amazon, Google, Meta etc they’ll all let up because who else you gunna buy?

BTC suckering in people left right and centre. 30k then up almost 10% then straight back down in the one day. Crazy shit.

The clip with Raoul Pal came out while in air UST depegged because of Luna. This is what I mean about him fucking around with crypto and now, his bad calls are on purpose because he knew all the details and then some…. After the fact. He says oh yeah they liquidated 500M and someone else is liquidating 500M Bitcoin and LFG has 1B then goes onto say how good the idea of a stable coin pegged digitally was and he hope it survives this test……

his fucking business partner is one of the decision makes for Luna lol. There was no debt. There wasn’t any margin calls, they decided to dump everything and take the 500M cash lol. He Hope’s it survives the test…. Oh you mean the test involving where your business partner rug pulls the coin and smashes all the poor plebs he lured in and runs off with half a bill lol?


Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8665 on: May 10, 2022, 06:57:39 PM »
This is the sort of shit that makes Baby Jesus weep.

Luna getting smashed down to $16 now lol.

UST getting proper fucked. Binance suspended all deposits and withdrawals of UST, sorry holders but you simply have to sit this out until it goes to zero…… belted down to 0.6 today and struggling.

Mongs on Twitter are actually defending UST saying it’s not a problem…… the train has arrived at Mong Central and the spastics are buying tickets.


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8666 on: May 10, 2022, 07:06:18 PM »

If you're going to disrupt the legacy system be prepared for them to come after you. Remember email first came out. US government and postmaster general said the most effecient and secure  way to send information was via US mail not email. Email needs servers that requires lots of energy and is going to destroy the planet. They actually went to court wanting to stop emails because  per email burnt 10pounds of coal! They wanted to implement an email stamp tax!

Same thing with the internet, those who had a monopoly on information used the same excuse, requires servers too much energy every 5 megabytes of information burned a pound of coal. They tried to shut off the internet and email using falsified energy argument.


So you  basically have btc running on 200tw hours of energy compared to global energy consumption of 160,000tw hours. BTC uses .00018%. It's a rounding error, see what they're doing?  So saying btc uses more energy than a small country is a marketing ploy and outright lie. WEF said in 2017 that by 2020 btc will consume all the world's energy....not a lot, literally said all the world's energy. It's horseshit scaremongering.

Unlike traditional legacy systems which you  cant turn off the grid without severe ramifications, they all have fail safes , generators and all sorts of stuff so they don't go off-line. Bitcoin miners don't care if they go off-line, they have what you call a "flexible load" . If there is an emergency you can shut them off first. They can give power back to the grid which means bitcoin miners are the first line of defence. So having a bitcoin mining facility makes your grid stronger than any other because the bitcoin miners will be first to turn off. Then flick a switch and turn right  back on within several minutes without  a hiccup or damage to equipment.
That's great and I agree with you about the power narrative being BS. However governments are all onboard with the green initiatives whether you like it or not. So a layer 1 with low energy requirements that can still manage to be decentralized and secure is a plus in my opinion. All things being equal it does not hurt to have a low carbon footprint.

It remains to be seen how secure POS is to POW when it comes down to it. Ethereum Classic is POW and yet it suffered numerous 51% attacks because of the low hash rate. Bitcoin is a lot more secure than these smaller blockchains. A 51% attack on Bitcoin is theoretically possible if a few large mining pools acted in unison. But it is extremely unlikely.


obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8667 on: May 10, 2022, 07:10:28 PM »
This is the sort of shit that makes Baby Jesus weep.

Luna getting smashed down to $16 now lol.

UST getting proper fucked. Binance suspended all deposits and withdrawals of UST, sorry holders but you simply have to sit this out until it goes to zero…… belted down to 0.6 today and struggling.

Mongs on Twitter are actually defending UST saying it’s not a problem…… the train has arrived at Mong Central and the spastics are buying tickets.
I am now so glad I did not get sucked into Terra. As of right now it is 57% down in the past 24 hours! I feel like an ass because just today I told someone to keep an eye on Terra because it looks promising. Just goes to show all these Ethereum killers are not such a sure bet. Terra was listed as a number 2 Ethereum Killer behind Solana on Decrypt. Solana suffered numerous attacks recently because of the limited number of validators.

https://decrypt.co/99481/5-biggest-ethereum-killers

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8668 on: May 10, 2022, 07:29:28 PM »
I am now so glad I did not get sucked into Terra. As of right now it is 57% down in the past 24 hours! I feel like an ass because just today I told someone to keep an eye on Terra because it looks promising. Just goes to show all these Ethereum killers are not such a sure bet. Terra was listed as a number 2 Ethereum Killer behind Solana on Decrypt. Solana suffered numerous attacks recently because of the limited number of validators.

https://decrypt.co/99481/5-biggest-ethereum-killers

Don’t fault yourself, how can you know that Terra would get rugged. It just shows we are at that phase. Lack of liquidity and big players can demolish whatever they want.

It does give a possible window as to what an attack on Saylor might look like via his share price. If it gets a big attack, the board might demand Saylor to sell BTC to defend the share price dump. So we see BTC take a dump as he defends the share price, I mean it’s looking pretty damn dire for MSTR already and I can’t imagine the SEC is ok with the business being insolvent and still operating.

His Asset book is break even now and he sells the break even asset to get money to pay the 6% interest on his junk bonds because his business loses money. Nothing may happen but damn, this is getting into very questionable territory.

obsidian

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8669 on: May 10, 2022, 07:34:35 PM »
Don’t fault yourself, how can you know that Terra would get rugged. It just shows we are at that phase. Lack of liquidity and big players can demolish whatever they want.

It does give a possible window as to what an attack on Saylor might look like via his share price. If it gets a big attack, the board might demand Saylor to sell BTC to defend the share price dump. So we see BTC take a dump as he defends the share price, I mean it’s looking pretty damn dire for MSTR already and I can’t imagine the SEC is ok with the business being insolvent and still operating.

His Asset book is break even now and he sells the break even asset to get money to pay the 6% interest on his junk bonds because his business loses money. Nothing may happen but damn, this is getting into very questionable territory.
https://decrypt.co/99970/michael-saylor-microstrategy-could-post-other-collateral-bitcoin-crashes

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has been a vocal Bitcoin advocate, with his company holding 129,218 Bitcoin (nearly $4.1 billion worth) as of its latest quarterly earnings report.

While being the biggest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies has its risks, Saylor shared his thoughts on how MicroStrategy could survive a serious bear market.

If the price of Bitcoin falls below $3,562 the company could post some other collateral,” Saylor wrote on Twitter.

Flexacon

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8670 on: May 10, 2022, 08:03:09 PM »
On the 9th Luna LFG sent all their bitcoin (42,530) to a few exchanges to defend the plummeting UST peg. They got it back up to over 0.9 and then sent their remaining BTC back to the Luna LFG wallet (28,205)

Few hours later UST peg was wobbling again and all the remaining 28,205 left the Luna LFG wallet again. The wallet still sits empty. How much if any BTC makes it back will be very interesting...

Do Kwon apprantly has a recovery plan

@stablekwon
11h
Close to announcing a recovery plan for $UST. Hang tight.
3h
Getting close ... stay strong, lunatics


Theoak*

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8671 on: May 10, 2022, 10:47:35 PM »
That's great and I agree with you about the power narrative being BS. However governments are all onboard with the green initiatives whether you like it or not. So a layer 1 with low energy requirements that can still manage to be decentralized and secure is a plus in my opinion. All things being equal it does not hurt to have a low carbon footprint.

It remains to be seen how secure POS is to POW when it comes down to it. Ethereum Classic is POW and yet it suffered numerous 51% attacks because of the low hash rate. Bitcoin is a lot more secure than these smaller blockchains. A 51% attack on Bitcoin is theoretically possible if a few large mining pools acted in unison. But it is extremely unlikely.


I believe you're talking about renewable energy which btc miners are at now 54%. Renewable are intermittent, they're not always on. The wind doesn't always blow, the sun doesn't always shine, the waves get lower . So you gave intermittent  renewable energy which is what the world wants and is moving towards. In order to get renewable energies you need flexible load so you can power down as intermentency hits at certain times.

So the bitcoin mining industry is not only making the grid stronger but its subsidising the growth of renewable  energy. They're the only companies  right now to be subsidising it globally.

The problem I have with POS is it represents old financial legacy systems which are broken. Top validators are rewarded and can change the rules. POW/btc represents a parallel system which every one can participate on equal terms and not fear the rules been changed half way through due to legislation or an authoritarian regime.

In regards to a physical 51% attack, I believe you would need $8billion + in equipment just to facilitate such an attack and that much hardware being purchased would not go unnoticed. Especially now since there is a shortage.  Basically a nation state would have to bank roll it. Imagine  USA spending tax payer dollars to hijack a network in which 50million+ people hodl or have held  btc. Almost certain death for that political party. I'm not saying it's impossible, but as the network grows and becomes more secure it's attack vector will  be to costly and make little to no sense.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8672 on: May 10, 2022, 11:12:21 PM »
https://decrypt.co/99970/michael-saylor-microstrategy-could-post-other-collateral-bitcoin-crashes

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has been a vocal Bitcoin advocate, with his company holding 129,218 Bitcoin (nearly $4.1 billion worth) as of its latest quarterly earnings report.

While being the biggest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies has its risks, Saylor shared his thoughts on how MicroStrategy could survive a serious bear market.

If the price of Bitcoin falls below $3,562 the company could post some other collateral,” Saylor wrote on Twitter.

The guy lost 13B during the Dotcom, the above kind of tell you why.

Once they’re at 50% their assets/liabilities are zero and he has a business losing money. Share price going to get nuked for sure if we go under 30k. Does that matter is the question. He doesn’t seem to care and I’d assume his board are along with him on it. As for anyone who owns MSTR shares…. Probably not to happy right now —> insert, I didn’t want to own risky Bitcoin so I bought shares in a company that has exposure to it to lower my risk……ironically  would have been better off buying Bitcoin.

Mayday

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8673 on: May 10, 2022, 11:15:04 PM »
Do Kwon apprantly has a recovery plan

@stablekwon
11h
Close to announcing a recovery plan for $UST. Hang tight.
3h
Getting close ... stay strong, lunatics

If his plan was for Luna to drop another 50% and for UST to drop from 0.8 to 0.6 I’d say he has done an awesome job.

Fucking legend!

Theoak*

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Re: Bitcoins - about to hit $5,000 per coin today!
« Reply #8674 on: May 10, 2022, 11:20:55 PM »
The guy lost 13B during the Dotcom, the above kind of tell you why.

Once they’re at 50% their assets/liabilities are zero and he has a business losing money. Share price going to get nuked for sure if we go under 30k. Does that matter is the question. He doesn’t seem to care and I’d assume his board are along with him on it. As for anyone who owns MSTR shares…. Probably not to happy right now —> insert, I didn’t want to own risky Bitcoin so I bought shares in a company that has exposure to it to lower my risk……ironically  would have been better off buying Bitcoin.

Btc has already priced in the demise of Luna and has decided to move higher. This is a pretty telling story within itself.