Author Topic: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee  (Read 111728 times)

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #850 on: March 15, 2016, 01:11:58 PM »
Does this email count as anything?

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Yes.  It lets you validate the life-sized poster of Bernie Sanders on your wall. 

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #851 on: March 15, 2016, 01:25:22 PM »
Yes.  It lets you validate the life-sized poster of Bernie Sanders on your wall. 
You made the claim that 2700 max contribution buys influence.  I am calling bullshit.  It hasn't bought me anything.

Dos Equis

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #852 on: March 15, 2016, 01:31:50 PM »
You made the claim that 2700 max contribution buys influence.  I am calling bullshit.  It hasn't bought me anything.

That is exactly what happens.  We have a $3k max individual contribution here.  Couples can donate $6k (or what we call "six thousand dollar couples").  Those couples can, if they choose, influence policy.  Their phone calls get returned.  They get a seat at the table with decision makers.  I've seen it happen.   

If you're not getting any access after your alleged contribution, there could be a few things happening:  maybe you haven't actually donated; maybe you donated and don't care about access or influence; maybe you donated and tried to contact them but they didn't respond because you are a loser.  Who knows?   

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #853 on: March 15, 2016, 01:33:12 PM »
That is exactly what happens.  We have a $3k max individual contribution here.  Couples can donate $6k (or what we call "six thousand dollar couples").  Those couples can, if they choose, influence policy.  Their phone calls get returned.  They get a seat at the table with decision makers.  I've seen it happen.   

If you're not getting any access after your alleged contribution, there could be a few things happening:  maybe you haven't actually donated; maybe you donated and don't care about access or influence; maybe you donated and tried to contact them but they didn't respond because you are a loser.  Who knows?   
Or maybe you are just full of shit.

Dos Equis

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #854 on: March 15, 2016, 01:35:34 PM »
Or maybe you are just full of shit.

Or maybe you are an uninformed dope.  Yeah.  I'm rolling with that. 

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #855 on: March 15, 2016, 01:40:19 PM »
Or maybe you are an uninformed dope.  Yeah.  I'm rolling with that. 
???

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #857 on: March 15, 2016, 07:18:00 PM »
If brokered convention, Jeb steals the nomination

RUSH LIMBAUGH said this today.   

He fears Jeb is going to win it at a brokered convention.  He's convinced.   

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #858 on: March 16, 2016, 01:17:44 PM »
Current delegate count:

Clinton - 1588 (pledged: 1116; super: 472)
Sanders - 817 (pledged: 794; super: 23)

http://www.cnn.com/election

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #859 on: March 17, 2016, 09:51:10 AM »
Hillary in all her glory.


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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #860 on: March 18, 2016, 10:17:37 AM »
Hope springs eternal. 

Sanders fights for life as Clinton wins another state, Obama turns screws
Published March 18, 2016 
FoxNews.com

Bernie Sanders, still insisting he has a fighting chance to capture the Democratic presidential nomination, ratcheted up his campaign schedule Friday to hit all three Western states voting next week as he scrambles to recover from Hillary Clinton’s recent five-state sweep – while President Obama applies pressure from the outside on the Vermont senator’s underdog bid.

Overnight, Clinton was declared the winner of the last remaining unresolved primary from Tuesday's five contests, in Missouri. Sanders said he won’t seek a recount in the tight race.

But, speaking with the Associated Press, he maintained he can still close the delegate gap.

"I don't believe they have an insurmountable lead," Sanders said Thursday from Arizona, where he was campaigning. "Secretary Clinton has done phenomenally well in the Deep South and in Florida. That's where she has gotten the lion's share of votes. And I congratulate her for that. But we're out of the Deep South now."

Sanders is hoping to turn things around next Tuesday, when Arizona, Utah and Idaho vote in the Democratic contest. His whirlwind campaign schedule on Friday was taking him to all three states.

But after his hopes of notching a few more upset victories this week in the Midwest fizzled, the senator’s path to the nomination remains unclear. 

Clinton now has a lead of more than 300 pledged delegates over Sanders from the primaries and caucuses: 1,147-830. When including superdelegates, or party officials who can back any candidate, Clinton has a much bigger lead -- 1,614-856.

Factoring both types of delegates, Sanders would need to win a whopping two-thirds of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination before July’s convention. Clinton only would need to win one-third.

Even if Sanders focuses only on closing the pledged-delegate gap – in hopes that the pro-Clinton superdelegates might later budge – he faces a steep path. The wild card may still be how the FBI investigation into Clinton’s email practices resolves, and whether that happens before the convention.

Robert Jackson, professor of political science at Florida State University, said it would take an unexpected shift of events for Sanders to have a legitimate shot at the nomination this far into the process. “Barring some almost unforeseen event or eruption of new information we haven’t seen before, I believe the pathway for him to get the majority of delegates is very, very difficult and the window of opportunity is rapidly closing,” he said.

Meanwhile, Obama is getting more involved in trying to bring closure and unity to the Democratic primary process.

According to The New York Times, he told a group of donors last week that Sanders’ campaign was getting close to the end and the party will soon have to unite behind Clinton.

He reportedly did not make an explicit call for Sanders to drop out, but suggested Sanders’ prolonged presence in the race could help Republicans in the end.

Clinton’s campaign also is sounding a confident note about their chances as they look to the upcoming contests.

Clinton's campaign pointed to a recent memo by campaign manager Robby Mook, who suggested she has an "insurmountable lead" in the delegate count. The campaign noted its pledged delegate lead of more than 300 is nearly twice as large as any that then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama held over Clinton in the 2008 primary.

"And note Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts, Nevada and Iowa are generally not considered Deep South," said Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon, referring to states won by the ex-secretary of state.

Sanders, speaking with the AP, called his loss in Ohio a "major disappointment," adding, "I thought we had a chance to win or come close in Ohio and we didn't." But he said that while "we know we've got a hill to climb," he was pleased his campaign was able to accumulate more delegates.

He predicted the upcoming calendar of races in several Western states, including Arizona and Washington, and April contests in Wisconsin, New York and Pennsylvania would offer him the chance to catch up.

"We think from now on out, we are having states that, everything being equal, we stand a chance to do well in. We think we have a path toward victory," he said, pointing to California's June primary. "We've got some big states coming up and we think if we can do well, if we go into the convention with delegates, we've got a shot at taking the nomination."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/18/sanders-fights-for-life-as-clinton-wins-another-state-obama-turns-screws.html?intcmp=hpbt2

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #861 on: March 18, 2016, 01:16:16 PM »


KING: Reports of Bernie Sanders campaign’s death have been greatly exaggerated — here are five reasons why

Two weeks ago, the word was that Clinton campaign surrogates were going to begin calling for Bernie Sanders to drop out of the presidential primary once he got crushed in Michigan.

Polls had him down as much as 27% and the talk was that if he couldn't win there, where the economy is depressed and jobs have been siphoned off, then he couldn't win anywhere.

Well, he won Michigan and the calls for Bernie to drop out soon ceased.

In fact, Bernie Sanders has won primaries in nine different states and barely lost by less than a half of 1% in Iowa and Missouri.

Yet, the calls for Bernie to drop out have been renewed.

That's nonsense.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton did not drop out against Barack Obama until June 7 in spite of being down significantly in the delegate count. In fact, people started calling on her to drop out in that race as early as February, but she resisted all of the calls pretty much until the end of the primary season.

Clinton even hinted she didn't want to drop out in the off chance her opponent was assassinated.

Yet, here we are, in mid-March, and Clinton supporters are already dialing up the calls for Bernie to drop out.

It's all nonsense. Here are five reasons why Sanders should remain in the race until the end.

1. He could still win

While Sanders is down 1147 to 830 in the pledged delegates, it's not outside the realm of possibility for him to stage a comeback. As long as it’s mathematically possible to win, he should stay in the race.


2. Young people deserve an opportunity to vote for the candidate of their choice

So far in this campaign, Sanders has dominated the youth vote.

Young people love him. They trust him. They get him. That's why he has received 1.54 million votes from people under 30 and Clinton has only received 625,000. It's not even close. In fact, Bernie has received 300,000 more youth votes than Clinton and Donald Trump combined.

Young people deserve to have a chance to vote for their clear candidate of choice.


3. Half of the country still hasn't had a chance to vote yet

While it may be expedient for the Clinton campaign for Sanders to drop out, nearly half of our country—including states like New York and California—haven't voted yet. They deserve to have a voice in who they want to see in this race. Maybe they'll choose Clinton, but they could choose Sanders and should not be denied this opportunity.

In fact, Sanders is polling very well in the remaining states.


4. Sanders changes the dialogue and issues in this race

Clinton is not a natural progressive or liberal. She has openly claimed to be a moderate most of her adult life. Having Sanders in this campaign has forced her to swing to the left on issues that matter. It's a lot of those issues that engage and excite voters.


5. It's what the establishment wants him to do

The bottom line is that it is primarily establishment politicians and corporate lobbyists who want Sanders to drop out. That alone should raise our suspicions. They never wanted him to win in the first place.

Keep on running Bernie — all the way to the convention!


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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #862 on: March 21, 2016, 11:12:14 AM »
Democrats to Sanders: Time to wind it down
Protracted combat with Hillary Clinton threatens to do real damage in a general election against Donald Trump, senators warn.
By BURGESS EVERETT
03/21/16


Democratic senators of all stripes are as impressed as they are surprised by Bernie Sanders’ insurgent campaign.

But the time has come, they say, for Sanders to start winding things down.

After holding their fire on Sanders for the better part of a year, the senators — all backers of Hillary Clinton — are gently calling on Sanders to face the reality that there’s almost no chance he’s going to be the Democratic nominee. They don’t say outright he should quit; doing so would be counterproductive, they say.

But nearly a dozen Democratic lawmakers suggested in interviews that Sanders should focus more on stopping Donald Trump and less on why he believes Clinton’s stands on trade, financial regulation and foreign policy would make her a flawed president.

“What’s important is not whether or not he gets out, but how he campaigns,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “If the contrast is now about what separates us from Donald Trump, then I think it’s fine. I just hope that we can begin to focus on unifying because obviously a lot of us are perplexed that we could be facing a country led by someone who seems to be a buffoon.”

Added Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.): “It’s good [for Sanders] to continue to raise the concerns that people have, but I think it ought to be in the context of, ‘This is the difference between the Democrats and Republicans in this race.’”

The subtext of these comments is the general view among Democrats that Sanders has no path to win. Clinton has nearly double the number of delegates that Sanders has, and she swept the Vermont independent in three distinct regions of the country last week.

“It will be almost impossible for Sen. Sanders to catch up. And he should do the math and draw his own conclusions,” said Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.).

“The writing’s on the wall,” said Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.).

The message senators are airing publicly mirrors what President Barack Obama told donors in private recently, according to The New York Times: That while Clinton may have her faults as a candidate, the party needs to channel its energy into defeating Trump.

Over the past month, Clinton campaign staffers have bristled at the way Sanders is running. A Clinton campaign memo said Sanders has been “increasingly negative” and accused him of breaking his vows not to name Clinton in his ads, blaming his sweeping losses on a negative strategy that “backfired.”

While tame compared with the accusations of lying and name-calling that dominate the Republican race, Sanders has gone after Clinton more aggressively of late. In the run-up to the Illinois primary, he highlighted her ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who’s unpopular among African-American voters and distrusted by progressives. And Sanders has repeatedly dismissed Clinton supporters as part of the “establishment,” which Democratic senators interpret as showing disrepect for them.

Still, Democratic leaders say they’re confident Sanders will do the right thing in the end. As pointed as some of his barbs at Clinton have been, they argue, the self-described democratic socialist hasn’t gone overboard.

“Bernie is a very constructive person. And he wants to move American politics closer in his direction. He’s done that already,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the expected next Democratic leader. “I am not worried.”

The Sanders campaign dismissed any suggestion that it’s time to wrap up his long-shot bid and pivot to defeating Trump and the Republicans. Campaign spokesman Michael Briggs insisted Sanders is still a superior general election candidate because he “consistently draws much more support than she does in general election matchups with the Republican front-runner.”

“If Democrats are interested in holding on to the White House, if Democratic senators are interested in regaining a majority in the Senate and picking up seats in the House and statehouses all across the county, Bernie’s the best bet,” Briggs said.

Even so, Democrats privately believe Sanders is already calculating how to gradually shift toward a posture of unity by summertime. With Clinton favored to win the nomination and beat Trump in the general election, Sanders also has to think about his relationship with a potential future president and returning to the Senate, where he caucuses with Democrats.

“He won’t do it,” said one high-ranking Democratic staffer on Capitol Hill of Sanders continuing to attack Clinton in ways that go beyond their policy differences.

At the same time, Democrats need to tread carefully in how they treat Sanders. His legion of followers will be critical to getting Clinton elected, not to mention scores of Democratic Senate and House candidates. It’s unknown how hard Sanders would campaign for Clinton, assuming she does prevail.

“I think that Sen. Sanders has built a movement. And that whatever happens, the two big tribes of the Democratic Party will be able to unite at the convention and be so much stronger,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).

But the dance is sure to be awkward. Not a single Democratic senator has endorsed Sanders. And beneath their deference, there’s growing irritation among the lawmakers that the longer his campaign continues, the more he will undermine Clinton in the fall.

“That’s something he’s going to have to decide,” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said of how long Sanders remains in the race. “She’s going to be the nominee.”

But, for now at least, Democrats believe measured diplomacy is the best approach for dealing with Sanders and his supporters.

“I don’t think any Democrat should call on him to get out,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). “Almost no Democrat I know would say that. And shouldn’t.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-dems-winddown-220966#ixzz43YvSyUq7

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #863 on: March 21, 2016, 02:24:38 PM »
Democrats to Sanders: Time to wind it down
Protracted combat with Hillary Clinton threatens to do real damage in a general election against Donald Trump, senators warn.
By BURGESS EVERETT
03/21/16


Democratic senators of all stripes are as impressed as they are surprised by Bernie Sanders’ insurgent campaign.

But the time has come, they say, for Sanders to start winding things down.

After holding their fire on Sanders for the better part of a year, the senators — all backers of Hillary Clinton — are gently calling on Sanders to face the reality that there’s almost no chance he’s going to be the Democratic nominee. They don’t say outright he should quit; doing so would be counterproductive, they say.

But nearly a dozen Democratic lawmakers suggested in interviews that Sanders should focus more on stopping Donald Trump and less on why he believes Clinton’s stands on trade, financial regulation and foreign policy would make her a flawed president.

“What’s important is not whether or not he gets out, but how he campaigns,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). “If the contrast is now about what separates us from Donald Trump, then I think it’s fine. I just hope that we can begin to focus on unifying because obviously a lot of us are perplexed that we could be facing a country led by someone who seems to be a buffoon.”

Added Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.): “It’s good [for Sanders] to continue to raise the concerns that people have, but I think it ought to be in the context of, ‘This is the difference between the Democrats and Republicans in this race.’”

The subtext of these comments is the general view among Democrats that Sanders has no path to win. Clinton has nearly double the number of delegates that Sanders has, and she swept the Vermont independent in three distinct regions of the country last week.

“It will be almost impossible for Sen. Sanders to catch up. And he should do the math and draw his own conclusions,” said Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.).

“The writing’s on the wall,” said Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.).

The message senators are airing publicly mirrors what President Barack Obama told donors in private recently, according to The New York Times: That while Clinton may have her faults as a candidate, the party needs to channel its energy into defeating Trump.

Over the past month, Clinton campaign staffers have bristled at the way Sanders is running. A Clinton campaign memo said Sanders has been “increasingly negative” and accused him of breaking his vows not to name Clinton in his ads, blaming his sweeping losses on a negative strategy that “backfired.”

While tame compared with the accusations of lying and name-calling that dominate the Republican race, Sanders has gone after Clinton more aggressively of late. In the run-up to the Illinois primary, he highlighted her ties to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who’s unpopular among African-American voters and distrusted by progressives. And Sanders has repeatedly dismissed Clinton supporters as part of the “establishment,” which Democratic senators interpret as showing disrepect for them.

Still, Democratic leaders say they’re confident Sanders will do the right thing in the end. As pointed as some of his barbs at Clinton have been, they argue, the self-described democratic socialist hasn’t gone overboard.

“Bernie is a very constructive person. And he wants to move American politics closer in his direction. He’s done that already,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the expected next Democratic leader. “I am not worried.”

The Sanders campaign dismissed any suggestion that it’s time to wrap up his long-shot bid and pivot to defeating Trump and the Republicans. Campaign spokesman Michael Briggs insisted Sanders is still a superior general election candidate because he “consistently draws much more support than she does in general election matchups with the Republican front-runner.”

“If Democrats are interested in holding on to the White House, if Democratic senators are interested in regaining a majority in the Senate and picking up seats in the House and statehouses all across the county, Bernie’s the best bet,” Briggs said.

Even so, Democrats privately believe Sanders is already calculating how to gradually shift toward a posture of unity by summertime. With Clinton favored to win the nomination and beat Trump in the general election, Sanders also has to think about his relationship with a potential future president and returning to the Senate, where he caucuses with Democrats.

“He won’t do it,” said one high-ranking Democratic staffer on Capitol Hill of Sanders continuing to attack Clinton in ways that go beyond their policy differences.

At the same time, Democrats need to tread carefully in how they treat Sanders. His legion of followers will be critical to getting Clinton elected, not to mention scores of Democratic Senate and House candidates. It’s unknown how hard Sanders would campaign for Clinton, assuming she does prevail.

“I think that Sen. Sanders has built a movement. And that whatever happens, the two big tribes of the Democratic Party will be able to unite at the convention and be so much stronger,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).

But the dance is sure to be awkward. Not a single Democratic senator has endorsed Sanders. And beneath their deference, there’s growing irritation among the lawmakers that the longer his campaign continues, the more he will undermine Clinton in the fall.

“That’s something he’s going to have to decide,” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said of how long Sanders remains in the race. “She’s going to be the nominee.”

But, for now at least, Democrats believe measured diplomacy is the best approach for dealing with Sanders and his supporters.

“I don’t think any Democrat should call on him to get out,” said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). “Almost no Democrat I know would say that. And shouldn’t.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-dems-winddown-220966#ixzz43YvSyUq7
60,000 people came out for him in Washington yesterday.  No reason to quit at all. 

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #864 on: March 23, 2016, 12:47:59 PM »
60,000 people came out for him in Washington yesterday.  No reason to quit at all. 

Other than the fact he is going to lose? 

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #865 on: March 23, 2016, 12:49:30 PM »
Delegate count after Hillary takes Arizona and Sanders take Utah and Idaho:

2,383 needed

Hillary Clinton - 1,689
Bernie Sanders - 944

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-primary-caucus-results

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #866 on: March 23, 2016, 04:33:57 PM »
Sorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’
By Philip Bump
March 23, 2016  

Denial is powerful. The extent to which the human mind can conjure up scenarios besides the one we don't want to see is impressive, the result of some weird psychological glitch that probably evolved as a way of allowing us to keep our sanity. I don't know; I'm not an evolutionary psychologist.

What I am is a dude who spends a lot of time looking at poll numbers, and particularly poll numbers related to the 2016 nomination contests. I am the author of various articles assessing the chances of Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic iteration thereof; those articles come to the conclusion that Hillary Clinton is very, very likely to be the party's nominee. It's a simple function of math. Sanders needs to win a lot of states with a lot of delegates by a lot of points -- something that he's so far shown no ability to do. He needs to win about three-quarters of the remaining delegates. Unless deus emerges from the machina, he will not.

But that's me looking at things objectively. I suspect that Seth Abramson -- a University of New Hampshire English professor and author of "Bernie Sanders Is Currently Winning the Democratic Primary Race, and I’ll Prove It to You" -- is not considering the race as objectively.

Abramson's "proof" consists of the following argument. Actually, Bernie Sanders has more support from Democrats. It's just that no one knows who he is. So Hillary Clinton banks a lot of early votes. But then they hear about Sanders and prefer him, and that's why voting on Election Day favors Sanders. So, really, Sanders is preferred.

The only problem with this is all of the parts.

First of all, not every state has early voting, including states that Clinton has won like Mississippi, Alabama and Virginia.

Second of all, Sanders doesn't always win voting on the day of the election. Abramson points to North Carolina and Tuesday's contest in Arizona -- except that the two were essentially tied in Arizona, by his numbers and Clinton won on Election Day in North Carolina. (This is waved away as being about the suppression of college voters or something.) He ignores, say, Georgia, where Clinton won on Election Day by a 2-to-1 margin.

But that's beside the point. When someone votes doesn't tell us when they decided how to vote. For that, we can look to exit polls.

In most of the contests so far, the Edison Research pollsters have asked voters themselves when they made up their minds about who to support. If Abramson's theory is correct, more people should have made up their minds in the last week before the election -- when Sanders was unquestionably campaigning -- than before that. But a look at the states for which we have data shows that it's split. In about half the states, Sanders does better with last-week deciders, and in about half he does worse.



In fact, if we apply the percentages of votes from those who decided in the last week to the vote totals, Clinton has earned more votes than Sanders from both those who decided in the last week and those who didn't.



So more voters who said, "I made up my mind shortly before Election Day" chose Clinton than Sanders.

Not that people who decided earlier are somehow ignorant! The subtext to Abramson's piece is that Clinton voters are uninformed clods and Sanders voters have had the scales fall away from their eyes. Abramson says his "proof" explains "how Clinton is 'beating' Sanders among American voters despite having a -13 favorability rating nationally, as compared to Sanders' +11 rating." But that's among all voters! Among Democrats, Quinnipiac University reported on Wednesday, Clinton's favorability is plus-65! Sanders is +69 -- but that's hardly the discrepancy Abramson suggests.

Anyway. Empty theory, unproven. But innovative! An interesting theory conjured up in defense of Bernie Sanders. I wonder why.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/23/sorry-bernie-supporters-your-candidate-is-not-currently-winning-the-democratic-primary-race/

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #867 on: March 23, 2016, 04:48:26 PM »
Sorry, Bernie supporters. Your candidate is not ‘currently winning the Democratic primary race’

True.  But he has a case if she does get indicted.  he has nothing to lose staying in the race.

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #868 on: March 24, 2016, 10:54:53 AM »
I want to say this is the worst set of choices in my lifetime, but we did just have Obama v. McCain not so long ago.

Bloomberg Poll: Democrats Evenly Split Between Clinton, Sanders

Image: Bloomberg Poll: Democrats Evenly Split Between Clinton, Sanders
Thursday, 24 Mar 2016

More than halfway through a nomination race that she entered as the clear favorite, Hillary Clinton finds herself deadlocked with Bernie Sanders among Democrats.

The latest nation Bloomberg Politics poll results for first choice of hose who have voted or plan to vote in this year’s Democratic contests:
 
Sanders: 49 percent
Clinton: 48 percent

The narrow difference comes after more than two dozen primaries and caucuses in which Clinton’s amassed a commanding lead in votes and in delegates needed to win the nomination.

The collection of enthusiastic first-time voters, those under 35, men, and self-described independents that he’s leaned on to win in states like New Hampshire and Colorado are keeping Sanders in the race, as is his message singularly focused on addressing income inequality.

By a more than 2-to-1 ratio, Democratic primary voters say Sanders would fight harder than Clinton for the middle class and do the most to rein in the power of Wall Street. Nearly six in 10 say the Vermont senator cares the most about people like them, and 64 percent see him as the most honest and trustworthy candidate. Just a quarter of voters said that of Clinton.

“It comes down to this: Bernie Sanders is the one Democrats see as looking out for them -- meaning he will build a stronger middle class at the expense of Wall Street,” said J. Ann Selzer, whose firm conducted the poll. “They trust him to do it. In the end, Hillary Clinton has a trust problem.”

Matthew Slater, a 26-year old retail manager from Gulfport, Mississippi, said he doesn’t view Clinton “as believable and authentic.”

“Seeing the issues that Hillary Clinton has flip-flopped on, has once supported and is now against or the other way around, I don’t believe in her,” Slater said. “I don’t really trust her.”

The survey also signaled some trouble for Clinton in holding on to Sanders supporters in November. In general- election match-ups, Sanders holds a 24-point edge over Donald Trump, a 12-point lead over Ted Cruz, and a 4-point advantage over John Kasich among likely general-election voters. Clinton, by contrast, trails Kasich by 4 percentage points. She would carry a sizable lead into a contest against Cruz, where she holds a 9-point advantage, and Trump, whom she beats by 18 points.

The poll found some encouraging signs for Clinton as the Democratic race moves into its second half. She leads Sanders 50 percent to 47 percent among those yet to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus, an indication that her drive toward the Democratic nomination won’t be impeded. She has 1,690 of the 2,383 delegates needed to become the party’s nominee to the 946 that Sanders has amassed, according to Associated Press estimates on Wednesday.

The voting groups that Clinton has relied on to dominate in primaries and caucuses continue to be her biggest advantage. She leads Sanders by 27 percentage points among voters over 35, by 18 points among those who identify as Democrats, and by 15 points among women.

She’s also rated more highly than Sanders on presidential characteristics. More than half say she has the better temperament to be president and would work most effectively with Congress. Almost three in five say she knows the most about how to get things done, and half say she’d be better at managing the economy, 10 points better than Sanders.

Clinton may also benefit from the shifting focus to foreign policy in the wake of Tuesday’s terrorist attacks in Brussels, which killed at least 31 people. Asked which candidate can best combat Islamic terrorism, Clinton bests Sanders by a more than 3-to-1 ratio.

Six in 10 Democratic primary voters say she has the most appropriate life experience to be president, and she’s favored 56 to 31 percent over Sanders when voters are asked who would be better with dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sixty percent said it bothered them that Sanders has little foreign policy experience.

Jane Martin, a 57-year-old from St. Louis who participated in the poll, said Clinton’s foreign policy experience was one of the top reasons she’s backing her over Sanders.

“She’s done a really good job as secretary of state,” Martin said in a phone interview. “I do like Bernie Sanders and some of the things he’s suggesting, but I don’t think he has the same experience.”

Clinton also may benefit from warming views of President Barack Obama, with whom she’s closely aligned herself during the campaign.

The president’s approval rating among all Americans hit 50 percent in the poll, up six points from November. His favorability rating is up nine points from November and, at 57 percent, at its highest point since December 2009. More than half of likely or past Democratic primary voters who cast a ballot in 2012 for Obama -- 55 percent -- said they were backing Clinton.

More than half the country -- 54 percent -- approve of his handling of the vacancy left by recently deceased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, and 62 percent say Republicans in the Senate are wrong not to hold hearings on the nomination.

Nearly half of all Americans -- 49 percent -- say the president is doing a good job on the economy, up 5 points from November. And 46 percent approve of Obama’s handling of health care, his highest marks since 2010.

The national poll of 1,000 adults was conducted March 19-22 by Selzer & Co. of West Des Moines, Iowa. The overall sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, while the subgroup of 311 Democratic primary voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. The subgroup of 815 likely general-election voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/clinton-sanders-bloomberg-poll/2016/03/24/id/720641/#ixzz43qOUQzhp

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #869 on: March 24, 2016, 08:26:44 PM »
Bernie Sanders Picks Up Major Union Endorsement Ahead Of Caucuses
The nod from the International Longshoremen and Warehouse Union comes just before caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington.
03/24/2016
Dave Jamieson
Labor Reporter, The Huffington Post

ASSOCIATED PRESS

A powerful West Coast union of dock and warehouse workers has endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) for president, giving his campaign a boost heading into a series of primary contests there.

The International Longshoremen and Warehouse Union said its executive board voted on the endorsement Thursday. Its president, Robert McEllrath, said in a statement that Sanders is “best on the issues that matter most to American workers.” The union, known for its militant history, now represents roughly 50,000 workers in California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska and Hawaii.

Alaska, Hawaii and Washington will all hold Democratic caucuses on Saturday, and it’s possible Sanders could sweep all three.

Craig Merrilees, an ILWU spokesman, told The Huffington Post that the rank-and-file backing for Sanders is clear.

“The support was significant at the grassroots level,” Merrilees said. “Many local bodies throughout the union had already recommended endorsements.”

The union plans to participate in an upcoming Sanders rally in Washington, Merrilees said.

Despite winning a handful of contests in the past week, Sanders is gradually losing any clear path to the Democratic nomination. Hillary Clinton leads him by more than 300 pledged delegates, a spread he won’t be able to close without racking up the sort of large-margin victories in big states that have so far eluded him. His best hope, as Politico reported, is to win big in Washington and parlay that into a victory in delegate-rich Wisconsin in early April, thereby keeping his nomination hopes alive.

ILWU is the fifth major union to endorse Sanders for president, following the Amalgamated Transit Union, which declared its backing for him last week. More than 20 unions, however, have lined up behind Clinton, including the largest public-sector unions in the country.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-union-endorsement_us_56f45bbae4b0a37218198cce

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #870 on: March 25, 2016, 11:17:08 AM »
Tulsi Gabbard cuts emotional ad for Bernie Sanders
By David Wright, CNN
Fri March 25, 2016

(CNN)Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who has endorsed Bernie Sanders' presidential bid, appears in an emotional new ad for the Vermont senator, talking about her military service and why she believes he is the best choice for the next Commander-in-Chief.

The ad, titled "The Cost of War," features Gabbard, a Democrat from Hawaii who served a 12-month tour in Iraq, discussing why she decided to join the military and praising Sanders' foreign policy.

Replete with images of Gabbard surfing in Hawaii and accompanied by shots of the island and its residents, the ad is a big assist from a popular home-state representative and rising star in the party, ahead of the Democratic caucuses in Hawaii that take place Saturday.

"I felt a sense of duty and I could not in good conscience stay back here in beautiful Hawaii and watch my brothers and sisters in uniform go off to combat," she says of her decision to enlist in the 90-second spot.

A visibly emotional Gabbard chokes up and continues, "These are people and friends who we never forget, and who we strive to honor every day that we are blessed to live and breathe."

Gabbard then praises Sanders, noting his vote against the Iraq War and his pledge to "take the trillions of dollars that are sent on these interventionist, regime change, unnecessary wars, and invest it here at home."

Gabbard quit her post as a Democratic National Committee vice chairwoman when she endorsed Sanders last month, and she had a public disagreement with DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz over the number debates held for the Democratic primary.

The ad features what could be a subtle shot at Hillary Clinton, who has criticized Sanders' proposals for being unrealistic while championing a more incremental form of progress, the Iraq veteran adds, "The American people are not looking to settle for inches. They're looking for real change."

"What I saw in Bernie Sanders was the heart of Aloha," Gabbard adds, "no matter who you are or where you come from in this country, that we are all in this together."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politics/tulsi-gabbard-bernie-sanders-ad-hawaii/index.html

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #871 on: March 27, 2016, 08:25:31 AM »
Seth Abramson makes some very interesting points:

Nobody cares how well a politician does at the ballot box when he or she is running for an office unopposed. What matters is how a politician performs in contested primaries and general elections, as when it really matters — like it will, for instance, this November — you can be certain of a contested election.

With that said, let’s make an important observation: Bernie Sanders has tied or beaten Hillary Clinton in a majority of the actively contested votes this election season.

You doubt it? Okay, let me explain.

Bernie Sanders has terrible name recognition in states where he hasn’t advertised or campaigned yet; meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has universal name recognition everywhere. Realizing this, the Clinton camp pushed hard to rack up the early vote in every state where early voting was an option. They did this not primarily for the reason we’ve been told — because Clinton performs well among older voters, and older voters are more likely to vote early than other age demographics — but rather because they knew that early votes are almost always cast before the election season actually begins in a given state.

That’s right — in each state, most of the early primary voting occurs before the candidates have aired any commercials or held any campaign events. For Bernie Sanders, this means that early voting happens, pretty much everywhere, before anyone knows who he is. Certainly, early voting occurs in each state before voters have developed a sufficient level of familiarity and comfort with Sanders to vote for him.

But on Election Day — among voters who’ve been present and attentive for each candidate’s commercials, local news coverage, and live events — Sanders tends to tie or beat Clinton.

In fact, that’s the real reason Sanders does well in caucuses.

It’s not because caucuses “require a real time investment,” as the media likes to euphemistically say, but because caucuses require that you vote on Election Day rather than well before it.

Consider: in North Carolina, Hillary Clinton only won Election Day voting 52% to 48%. Given the shenanigans in evidence during the live voting there — thousands of college students were turned away from the polls due to insufficient identification under a new voter-suppression statute in the state — it wouldn’t be unfair to call that 4-point race more like a 2-point one (51% to 49% for Clinton).

Consider: on Super Tuesday 3, because early voting is always reported first, Clinton’s margins of victory were originally believed to be 25 points in Missouri, 30 points in Illinois, and 30 points in Ohio. Missouri, which doesn’t have conventional early voting, ended up a tie. Illinois ended up with a 1.8% margin for Clinton (after being a 42-point race in Clinton’s favor just a week earlier) and Ohio a 13.8% margin.

Any one of us could do the math there. And yet the media never did.

Consider: in Arizona yesterday, the election was called almost immediately by the media, with Clinton appearing to “win” the state by a margin of 61.5% to 36.1%. Of course, this was all early voting. CNN even wrongly reported that these early votes constituted the live vote in 41% of all Arizona precincts — rather than merely mail-in votes constituting a percentage of the total projected vote in the state — which allowed most Americans to go to bed believing both that Clinton had won Arizona by more than 25 points and that that margin was the result of nearly half of Arizona’s precincts reporting their live-voting results. Neither was true.

In fact, as of the time of that 61.5% to 36.1% “win,” not a single precinct in Arizona had reported its Election Day results.

Indeed, more than two and a half hours after polls closed in Arizona, officials there had counted only 54,000 of the estimated 431,000 Election Day ballots.

That’s about 12%.

So how did Bernie Sanders do on Election Day in Arizona?

As of the writing of this essay (2:45 AM ET), Sanders was leading Clinton in Election Day voting in Arizona 50.2% to 49.8%, with just under 75,000 votes (about 17.3% of all Election Day votes) counted.

So imagine, for a moment, that early votes were reported to the media last rather than first. Which, of course, they quite easily could be, given that they’re less — rather than more — reflective of the actual state of opinion on Election Day. Were early votes reported last rather than first, Arizona as of 2:45 AM ET would have been considered not only too close to call but a genuine nail-biter. In fact, only 400 or so Election Day votes were separating the two Democratic candidates at that point — though the momentum with each new vote counted was quite clearly in Sanders’ favor.

So the question becomes, why does any of this matter? Does the point being made here — that Bernie Sanders is as or more popular than Hillary in both all the states he won and many of the states he didn’t — gain Sanders a single delegate? Does it move him one inch closer to being President?

No.

What it does do is explain why the Clinton-Sanders race is a 5-point race nationally — just a hair from being a statistical tie, given the margin of error — despite the media treating Clinton’s nomination as a foregone conclusion.

What it does do is explain how Clinton is “beating” Sanders among American voters despite having a -13 favorability rating nationally, as compared to Sanders’ +11 rating. That dramatic difference is possible because in favorability polling, pollsters only count voters who say they know enough about a candidate to form an opinion. That eliminates the sort of “early voters” who cast ballots for Hillary Clinton before having much of a handle on who Bernie Sanders is.

And what it does do is explain why Sanders outperforms Clinton against Donald Trump in nearly every state where head-to-head general-election polling data is available. While some of this is undoubtedly due to the fact that Sanders beats Clinton by between 30 and 40 points among Independents — itself a major warning sign for a Clinton candidacy this fall — the rest is explained by the fact that when voters come to know Bernie Sanders as well as they already know Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, they tend to prefer him to these two by clear margins.

The Hillary camp, and Hillary supporters, are justly excited about how their candidate is performing in the delegate horse-race. The problem is that that excitement is quickly becoming the sort of arrogance that will in fact endanger Hillary’s candidacy for President. Both she and her team — including all her millions of supporters — should consider the fact that Hillary does not, outside the deep-red Deep South, do particularly well among voters when they’re given any other reasonable alternative. The fact that early voting statutes and media reporting of elections in America favors the maintenance of the illusion that Hillary remains popular when voters become familiar with other credible options does not excuse ignorance of the reality; certainly, it won’t help Democrats in November.

And given that a demagogue like Donald Trump is the likely Republican nominee, that’s a scary thought for many Americans. Sanders voters should want — and most do want — a Clinton campaign that understands its weaknesses sufficiently to ameliorate them in a general election, should Clinton be the Democratic nominee. Right now that’s clearly not happening, and the national media is unfortunately enabling the persistence and expansion of these troubling blind-spots.

Finally, we’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about super-delegates. These are folks who are supposed to be supporting whichever candidate has the best chance of winning in November. We already know, per head-to-head general-election polling, that the better candidate to run against Donald Trump is Bernie Sanders; however, many super-delegates (and most of the media) dismiss general election polling this early on, even though Sanders’ commanding lead over Trump is clearly statistically relevant. (This is especially true given that his name recognition lags well behind Trump’s.)

But what about the argument, implicitly being made to super-delegates now, and likely to be made to them explicitly in Philadelphia this summer, that Bernie Sanders has, broadly speaking, out-performed Hillary Clinton in Election Day voting? Given that Election Day voting in the spring is the very same sort of high-information voting that will occur in November, you’d think super-delegates would be quite interested to know that, in live voting, Bernie Sanders beats Hillary Clinton more often than not.

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #872 on: March 27, 2016, 09:06:46 AM »
hilary sucks.  like, historically at epic level underachievement here. 

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #873 on: March 28, 2016, 09:05:04 AM »
Bernie Sanders Continues To Dominate Caucuses, But He’s About To Run Out Of Them
By HARRY ENTEN
MAR 27, 2016


Bernie Sanders at a campaign stop on Saturday in Madison, Wisconsin. ANDY MANIS / AP

Bernie Sanders won a trifecta of states on Saturday. He put up big victories in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington, after carrying Idaho and Utah earlier in the week. Sanders beat his delegate targets by a solid margin in all five of these states and closed Hillary Clinton’s pledged delegate lead to just north of 225.1 In doing so, Sanders highlighted an ongoing Clinton weakness: caucuses. All five of Sanders’s wins this week came in caucuses. The problem for the Sanders campaign is that there are only two caucuses left on the Democratic primary calendar.

Here are the FiveThirtyEight delegate targets for every state to vote so far, as well as how many delegates Sanders won:2

SANDERS’S DELEGATES
STATE   CAUCUS   WON   TARGET   DIFFERENCE
Washington*   ✓   74   59   +15
Utah   ✓   27   19   +8
Illinois      78   71   +7
Kansas   ✓   24   19   +5
Idaho   ✓   18   14   +4
Alaska   ✓   13   9   +4
Hawaii   ✓   17   13   +4
Colorado   ✓   38   36   +2
Vermont      16   14   +2
Oklahoma      21   20   +1
Maine   ✓   16   15   +1
New Hampshire      15   15   —
Missouri      35   35   —
Nebraska   ✓   15   15   —
Michigan      67   67   —
Minnesota   ✓   46   47   -1
Nevada   ✓   15   18   -3
North Carolina      47   50   -3
Arkansas      10   14   -4
Louisiana      14   18   -4
Iowa   ✓   21   26   -5
Massachusetts      45   50   -5
South Carolina      14   21   -7
Georgia      29   37   -8
Alabama      9   18   -9
Mississippi      4   13   -9
Virginia      33   43   -10
Ohio      62   72   -10
Arizona      31   41   -10
Tennessee      23   34   -11
Texas      74   96   -22
Florida      73   98   -25
Sanders outperforms expectations in caucuses
*Washington’s delegate total won by Sanders is preliminary

Sanders has outperformed his targets in 11 states. Just three of those states held primaries (Illinois, Oklahoma and Vermont), and one of those three (Vermont) is Sanders’s home state. The other eight were caucuses. Six of Sanders’s best states by this measure were in the West (all the caucuses this week and Colorado). In fact, Iowa and Nevada are the only caucuses so far in which Clinton beat our delegate targets by more than one delegate, which may have something to do with all the organizing effort the Clinton campaign put into those states.

So why is Sanders doing better in caucuses than primaries? The most obvious answer is that caucuses reward candidates with diehard supporters. There are often speeches, and sometimes multiple rounds of voting at caucuses. Typically, you have to stick around for a while to vote. That takes devotion, and if you’ve ever met a Sanders fan, you’ll know that many would climb over hot coals to vote for him.

Sanders’s strength in caucuses may also be, in part, coincidental. Every state that has held or will hold a Democratic caucus this year has a black population at or below 10 percent of the state’s total population, and black voters have been among Clinton’s strongest demographic groups. Without those black voters, Clinton just can’t match the enthusiasm of Sanders’s backers. (In Southern states, where Clinton romped, her voters were far more enthusiastic than Sanders’s supporters were.)

Now, I know what some of you are thinking: How do we know that Sanders’s big wins this week aren’t a sign that something more fundamental about the Democratic race has changed? We don’t, necessarily. But look at the calendar: Sanders also outperformed his delegate targets in Colorado, Kansas and Maine earlier this month, and he still went on to suffer big losses on March 15. And that was after his shocking Michigan victory. Moreover, Sanders greatly underperformed his delegate targets last Tuesday in Arizona, which held a primary and has a more diverse electorate.

Most likely, Sanders will need to find another way to make up ground on Clinton in the delegate race. Wyoming (April 9) and North Dakota (June 7) are the only remaining stateside caucuses. The rest of the stateside races are primaries. Sanders has exceeded his delegate targets in just three stateside primaries. He’s matched them in three and underperformed in 15. Given that Sanders is still so far behind in the delegate count, he needs to outperform his delegate targets by a lot.

How likely is that? Well, he’s behind by about 6 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average. That’s not a huge deficit, and it wouldn’t shock me if Sanders won Wisconsin given that the black population there is below 10 percent. (To match his delegate target in Wisconsin, he needs a net gain of 10 delegates there.) Sanders, though, will likely have more difficulty in later primaries in April, such as Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania, where African Americans make up more than 10 percent of the state’s population.

Sanders had a strong week, and this has been a crazy year in politics. But there’s nothing in the recent results to suggest that the overall trajectory of the Democratic race has changed. Clinton was and is a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-continues-to-dominate-caucuses-but-hes-about-to-run-out-of-them/

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Re: Presidential Candidates 2016: 10 Democrats Who Might Be the Next Nominee
« Reply #874 on: March 29, 2016, 10:18:30 AM »
Current delegate count:

Clinton 1243 regular, 469 super
Sanders, 975 regular, 29 super

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-primary-caucus-results