Brad Hollibaugh - RIP.

[BayGBM]

Around 2002, biceps were at maximum site enhancement.

At :26 seconds and 1:22 his bicep has a peak and his arm is extended and not flexing.

[Matt]

Matt, have you ever heard the term "anecdotal evidence"?....

Yes. Specifically, it doesn't mean anything in terms of proving anything in a science.

The plural of anecdotal evidence is "empirical evidence. That is what science relies on.

"I know someone who knows someone who died WITH Covid-19 is NOT proof of a global pandemic.

Basically, the proof so far is "I know one person who died last year!"

How is that proof of a global pandemic?

If an actual lethal global pandemic was going on we would know far more people who have been impacted by COVID over the last 13+ months.

Don't trust the news.

Don't trust ME.

Trust your instincts.

Do you know ANYONE who has died of Covid-19, or been seriously ill from it.

You do not.

So why do you think COVID is lethal plague worth destroying our freedoms and sustaining this much economic loss over?

Discuss.

[mphgrove]

Yes. Specifically, it doesn't mean anything in terms of proving anything in a science.

The plural of anecdotal evidence is "empirical evidence. That is what science relies on.

"I know someone who knows someone who died WITH Covid-19 is NOT proof of a global pandemic.

Basically, the proof so far is "I know one person who died last year!"

How is that proof of a global pandemic?

If an actual lethal global pandemic was going on we would know far more people who have been impacted by COVID over the last 13+ months.

Don't trust the news.

Don't trust ME.

Trust your instincts.

Do you know ANYONE who has died of Covid-19, or been seriously ill from it.

You do not.

So why do you think COVID is lethal plague worth destroying our freedoms and sustaining this much economic loss over?

Discuss.

The weird irony is that, no matter how you feel about the handling of COVID and in full recognition of the hardship all this has caused for huge numbers of people, we are now embarking on a huge economic boom.

[Humble Narcissist]

The weird irony is that, no matter how you feel about the handling of COVID and in full recognition of the hardship all this has caused for huge numbers of people, we are now embarking on a huge economic boom.

We are?

[mphgrove]

We are?

Some foreign GDP growth rates are unreal (China). Stock and real estate markets are potentially predictive (both in a mini-boom). Don’t you think there will be a big bump when people start traveling and eating out again? Unemployment is still high and lots of people are still struggling and suffering, but it seems the unemployment rate may be over-stated. I know several people who are both working and collecting unemployment simultaneously (shame on them) but that means socking away savings for future spending. I could be wrong but I predict an upcoming boom that has actually already started.

[pamith]

RIP, easily the best biceps in bodybuilding 

[Primemuscle]

Some foreign GDP growth rates are unreal (China). Stock and real estate markets are potentially predictive (both in a mini-boom). Don’t you think there will be a big bump when people start traveling and eating out again? Unemployment is still high and lots of people are still struggling and suffering, but it seems the unemployment rate may be over-stated. I know several people who are both working and collecting unemployment simultaneously (shame on them) but that means socking away savings for future spending. I could be wrong but I predict an upcoming boom that has actually already started.

If people are working while collecting unemployment, they must be getting paid under-the-table and they are working for an employer who is not paying  the employer portion of social security, medicare and FICA taxes.

The penalty for a person who defrauds the government can be pretty stiff depending on state laws.

-prosecution by government authorities;
-1 to 6 years of jail time;
-repayment of UI benefits collected, plus penalties and interest;
-up to $3,000 in fines;
-forfeiture of future income tax refunds; and
-loss of eligibility to collect UI benefits in the future.

[Dave D]

If people are working while collecting unemployment, they must be getting paid under-the-table and they are working for an employer who is not paying  the employer portion of social security, medicare and FICA taxes.

The penalty for a person who defrauds the government can be pretty stiff depending on state laws.

-prosecution by government authorities;
-1 to 6 years of jail time;
-repayment of UI benefits collected, plus penalties and interest;
-up to $3,000 in fines;
-forfeiture of future income tax refunds; and
-loss of eligibility to collect UI benefits in the future.

Prime people have been defrauding the government during this pandemic. There are many people who are laid off collecting unemployment doing side jobs.

I don’t know if there’s an economic boom coming because people have been saving money, I think they were spending it at Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s and Amazon.

[SOMEPARTS]

Some foreign GDP growth rates are unreal (China). Stock and real estate markets are potentially predictive (both in a mini-boom). Don’t you think there will be a big bump when people start traveling and eating out again? Unemployment is still high and lots of people are still struggling and suffering, but it seems the unemployment rate may be over-stated. I know several people who are both working and collecting unemployment simultaneously (shame on them) but that means socking away savings for future spending. I could be wrong but I predict an upcoming boom that has actually already started.

Well, it's either one or the other...pent up demand for a boom or people are already spending and doing things because covid is an obvious govt joke.

My take is pent up demand is a fallacy. Many people who are super consumers right now are not paying their bills in the meantime. They are not saving this money for some future time, they are spending it now and not heeding their normal obligations. This will all figure itself out.  The restaurants and stores are full, if you haven't re-opened yet you are out of business.

[SOMEPARTS]

If people are working while collecting unemployment, they must be getting paid under-the-table and they are working for an employer who is not paying  the employer portion of social security, medicare and FICA taxes.

The penalty for a person who defrauds the government can be pretty stiff depending on state laws.

-prosecution by government authorities;
-1 to 6 years of jail time;
-repayment of UI benefits collected, plus penalties and interest;
-up to $3,000 in fines;
-forfeiture of future income tax refunds; and
-loss of eligibility to collect UI benefits in the future.

Govt boot licker. Statist tattletale.

[mphgrove]

Prime people have been defrauding the government during this pandemic. There are many people who are laid off collecting unemployment doing side jobs.

I don’t know if there’s an economic boom coming because people have been saving money, I think they were spending it at Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s and Amazon.

Even that spending at those stores is what is building the momentum. Legal or illegal, there is a transfer of money from government to individuals (via government debt) which qualifies exactly as fiscal stimulus. Whether this is a good idea for the long term, however, is a matter for debate.

[mphgrove]

Well, it's either one or the other...pent up demand for a boom or people are already spending and doing things because covid is an obvious govt joke.

My take is pent up demand is a fallacy. Many people who are super consumers right now are not paying their bills in the meantime. They are not saving this money for some future time, they are spending it now and not heeding their normal obligations. This will all figure itself out.  The restaurants and stores are full, if you haven't re-opened yet you are out of business.

You have a point about the non-payment piece. Many landlords are not getting their rents and that will cause a reverse drag because many or most of those tenants will NEVER pay. But I think the pent-up demand factor will outweigh that. For example, grandparents will be eventually be streaming to Disney World with their grandkids who have been deprived of that.

And some parts of the population have been going to restaurants anyway (the “government joke” segments) but the majority have been hunkering down and are restless.

[Dave D]

Even that spending at those stores is what is building the momentum. Legal or illegal, there is a transfer of money from government to individuals (via government debt) which qualifies exactly as fiscal stimulus. Whether this is a good idea for the long term, however, is a matter for debate.

Ok but my contention is that people were ALWAYS spending during the lockdown and that was keeping the economy afloat. I was able to work during the lockdown and did not have an influx of new money, people that were making more being unemployed likely spent what they had at the first chance.

Where is the boom coming from once the unemployment boost runs out?

[mphgrove]

Ok but my contention is that people were ALWAYS spending during the lockdown and that was keeping the economy afloat. I was able to work during the lockdown and did not have an influx of new money, people that were making more being unemployed likely spent what they had at the first chance.

Where is the boom coming from once the unemployment boost runs out?

Good points. It would be interesting to get economists’ views. I disagree for the most part that people were spending all along. LOTS of people have been hurting. Look at the lower wage segments. The stock market is often (but not always) a solid predictor. It is definitely pointing upward. That factor as well as real estate proceeds could be a big part of propelling us forward.

[SOMEPARTS]

And some parts of the population have been going to restaurants anyway (the “government joke” segments) but the majority have been hunkering down and are restless.

You must live in the city or a blue state. This is not going on in flyover country. Stores and restaurants packed, Lowes and Home Depot has 200 cars in the parking lot on the weekend.

Nobody is sitting on their money waiting for the all clear, people might be paying lip service on Facebook but bet they are getting their Amazon boxes every day.

What I do see and hear is that nobody can get anyone to work in the $15 range because it pays more to watch netflix with the mailbox money coming in. When they shut that off I'm supposed to believe things are going to improve because somebody has $600 left and no job? Nah.

[mphgrove]

You must live in the city or a blue state. This is not going on in flyover country. Stores and restaurants packed, Lowes and Home Depot has 200 cars in the parking lot on the weekend.

Nobody is sitting on their money waiting for the all clear, people might be paying lip service on Facebook but bet they are getting their Amazon boxes every day.

What I do see and hear is that nobody can get anyone to work in the $15 range because it pays more to watch netflix with the mailbox money coming in. When they shut that off I'm supposed to believe things are going to improve because somebody has $600 left and no job? Nah.

Yes, in a big city here. In my metropolitan area, there are some segments that are VERY Covid sensitive and some suburbs where the mayors have actually written letters to their small businesses saying they will not be enforcing regulations, with the restaurants chock full of COVID doubters. I don’t have any crystal balls and you could be correct that a slowdown is on its way after the mailbox money ends. I just don’t see it though. I think hiring will pick up super fast, and people will be desperate to travel. I am optimistic on the economy.

[SOMEPARTS]

Yes, in a big city here. In my metropolitan area, there are some segments that are VERY Covid sensitive and some suburbs where the mayors have actually written letters to their small businesses saying they will not be enforcing regulations, with the restaurants chock full of COVID doubters. I don’t have any crystal balls and you could be correct that a slowdown is on its way after the mailbox money ends. I just don’t see it though. I think hiring will pick up super fast, and people will be desperate to travel. I am optimistic on the economy.

Hiring? For what? Show me wage growth for low skill labor when millions are pouring in who will work well below $15 per hr and never pay taxes. The world is running right now regardless of what the news says and most of those that have actual job skills/value in excess of the stimulus checks are working.

The trend is everything becoming more streamlined and centralized, big tech and retail corps at all time highs and small biz vaporized. Doesn't take long for the trend to become entrenched  and reflected in people's habits and I think that is the goal here. The barrier to entry will be higher than it was for people are sitting around waiting for an all clear. I'm talking about career work and entrepreneurship here, not the waitstaff at some Italian restaurant that is closed in NYC(no offense to anyone that works).

[SOMEPARTS]

Also, RIP fake bicep guy.

Bay likey, tier 2.

[mphgrove]

Hiring? For what? Show me wage growth for low skill labor when millions are pouring in who will work well below $15 per hr and never pay taxes. The world is running right now regardless of what the news says and most of those that have actual job skills/value in excess of the stimulus checks are working.

The trend is everything becoming more streamlined and centralized, big tech and retail corps at all time highs and small biz vaporized. Doesn't take long for the trend to become entrenched  and reflected in people's habits and I think that is the goal here. The barrier to entry will be higher than it was for people are sitting around waiting for an all clear. I'm talking about career work and entrepreneurship here, not the waitstaff at some Italian restaurant that is closed in NYC(no offense to anyone that works).

I agree with some of what you say, the improving economy will benefit low skilled workers the least. All of the government stimulus money has had the effect of propping up those individuals to some extent, but the jobs that await low wage workers when the economy picks up (if you believe it will as I do) will continue to be shit jobs. Centralization/globalization are a big part of that. One of the weird upsides has been absence of inflation (low wage growth is one aspect of low inflation) which has made all the stimulus funds less risky to the economy. But centralization has LOTS of negatives as you say.

As for small business, this may be naive but I see it so ingrained in the American way of life, that it won’t go away easily. And many new immigrants are especially good at it. For better or worse, lots of American bodybuilders are also succeeding or at least attempting to be good at with their YouTube channels and even Only Fans memberships (lol).

[monsterman500]

he invented it

jackass 

[BayGBM]

Years ago I asked Brad how he squared his bodybuilding career with his "private posing" escapades--which had become well publicized by then.  He explained that he had no problem posing for cheering crowds onstage in competition and saw little difference between doing that and posing for one person in private.  As for what might happen in those private sessions... I didn't probe any further.

[SOMEPARTS]

More like Brad Holdaball.

[Taffin]

Dude had some balls injecting that much sh1t...



Er...

On the other hand... 

[Rusty Trombone]

Govt boot licker. Statist tattletale.

This haha.


He's all for the stiff penalty. (in his ass hole)

[ChristopherA]

If people are working while collecting unemployment, they must be getting paid under-the-table and they are working for an employer who is not paying  the employer portion of social security, medicare and FICA taxes.

The penalty for a person who defrauds the government can be pretty stiff depending on state laws.

-prosecution by government authorities;
-1 to 6 years of jail time;
-repayment of UI benefits collected, plus penalties and interest;
-up to $3,000 in fines;
-forfeiture of future income tax refunds; and
-loss of eligibility to collect UI benefits in the future.

Jesus you're the biggest fucking square on this forum. Heaven's no don't take advantage of the govt and double dip. What kind of savage would do that when all the govt does is look out for out for our well being?