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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Dos Equis on February 12, 2016, 12:33:09 PM
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Been hearing and reading about this possibility. It can happen. For those who believe Trump is running away with this, it's important to keep the numbers in perspective:
Number of Trump Votes in Iowa and New Hampshire: 145,833.
Number of combined votes for other GOP candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire: 320,185.
As the field narrows, I doubt those voters get behind Trump, because they probably would have been supporting him in the first place.
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I have to believe that if it gets to a brokered convention, Rubio would be favored.
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I have to believe that if it gets to a brokered convention, Rubio would be favored.
I agree. More than half the GOP hates Trump. Cruz doesn't have much support from the establishment. If four candidates make a respectable showing in South Carolina and Nevada, and nobody is above 50 percent, I think that's probably where we are headed.
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Trump just needs 51% of the delegates? He'll likely have those, particularly as more people drop out.
Don't forget, Bush BEAT Rubio in NH, and he may easily beat him in SC also.
IF it goes to a brokered convention, my $ is on Jeb/Rubio ticket. NOBODY is going to out-manuever a Bush if it comes down to a deal at a table. Jeb wins it that way.
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I have to believe that if it gets to a brokered convention, Rubio would be favored.
You are dreaming. They already smacked Rubio down for Jeb and put a pic of him in drag out there.
If it gets brokered it will be for Bush and Kasich. This is the party that offered up McCain remember.
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Bush is the man with the most inside track, and there's no denying it.
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Campaigns secretly prep for brokered GOP convention
Candidates, outside groups and party officials are quietly maneuvering for a nomination fight that goes all the way to the bitter end.
By BEN SCHRECKINGER 02/16/16
(http://static2.politico.com/dims4/default/0ec0234/2147483647/resize/1160x%3E/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Ffe%2Fef%2F76f7cf0743328541907d41ced2bb%2F160215-marco-rubio-1160-gty.jpg)
Marco Rubio's campaign, along with others, is preparing to enter the GOP shadow primary to gain an advantage over Donald Trump and Ted Cruz who lead the field. | Getty
Mysterious outside groups are asking state parties for personal data on potential delegates, Republican campaigns are drawing up plans to send loyal representatives to obscure local conventions, and party officials are dusting off rule books to brush up on a process that hasn’t mattered for decades.
As Donald Trump and Ted Cruz divide up the first primaries and center-right Republicans tear one another apart in a race to be the mainstream alternative, Republicans are waging a shadow primary for control of delegates in anticipation of what one senior party official called “the white whale of politics”: a contested national convention.
The endgame for the most sophisticated campaigns is an inconclusive first ballot leading to a free-for-all power struggle on the floor in Cleveland.
“This is going to be a convention like I’ve never seen in my lifetime,” said veteran operative Barry Bennett, who managed Ben Carson’s campaign until December and is now advising Trump. “It’s going to be contentious from Day One.”
The primaries and caucuses that dot the nominating calendar and whose results drive headlines will decide whom most delegates are bound to vote for on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Should the first ballot fail to produce a nominee, the outcome of the convention will depend on results of the parallel primary now underway for the hearts and minds of delegates.
Each state party has its own rules governing delegate selection, a process so steeped in nuance and legal ambiguity that there are multiple blogs dedicated to wading through it all.
In some states, campaigns select slates of their own delegates, making it relatively easy to send loyalists to Cleveland.
In many others, delegates to Cleveland will be selected at a series of conventions held at the congressional district and state levels. Candidates who are able to get supporters to show up at those conventions and elect loyal delegates would be rewarded in a multiballot Republican convention — even if those delegates are bound to vote for someone else in the first round.
“Just because you get x number of delegates, it doesn’t mean that it’s your people unless you go to these conventions and get people to run,” said Marco Rubio’s deputy campaign manager, Rich Beeson. “You want to make sure that they’re with you on subsequent ballots.”
Rubio, who openly contemplated the possibility of a contested convention in an AP interview last week, is not the only candidate whose campaign is preparing to contest the shadow primary.
One Southern state party chairman said that the calls from campaigns seeking data — such as contact information on eligible delegates and the names of people who have served as delegates in past years — began in late 2015. The chairman said calls have also come from third-party vendors who declined to identify which campaigns are their clients. “There’s a bit of skulduggery. … I suspect some super PACs are behind some of this.”
Toby Neugebauer, a Cruz super PAC megadonor who has long maintained that this nominating contest would be drawn out, said he has invested in custom delegate-tracking software but did not provide further details of his efforts on that front.
The Southern state party chairman who called an open convention “the white whale of politics” said the possibility is driving side conversations at party meetings. “We all sit around and talk about it at [Republican National Committee] meetings.”
Bennett said that when he worked for Carson, whose supporters have been among the most enthusiastic and visible at activist gatherings like the Conservative Political Action Conference, the campaign knew its candidate’s passionate grass-roots support would allow it to excel at the herculean organizing challenge of sending loyal representatives to a contested convention.
“We thought we could do very well at the micromechanics of getting delegates selected,” said Bennett. “People like Trump, who’s got a social media following of 5 million, or Cruz, who has good connections at the grass-tops level, will be fine. I don’t think any of the establishment candidates are that well positioned.”
Now that Bennett is advising Trump’s camp, he has not stopped planning for a floor fight in Cleveland. One Trump insider said Bennett is angling to serve as the mogul’s liaison to the national convention.
Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, declined to comment for this story except to write in an email: “That is not the role Barry [Bennett] serves.”
After losing the Iowa caucuses to a better-organized Cruz earlier this month, Trump said he had only recently learned the meaning of the term “ground game.” But according to a person involved in briefing the New York billionaire, Trump has understood the underlying mechanics of the nominating process since at least last year.
As currently written, the rules governing the national convention require a candidate to have won a majority of delegates in eight states or territories to be eligible for the nomination. A candidate will need a majority of delegates — 1,237 — to win it.
“He knows about the number, and he knows about the process. He’s aware of the eight states. He’s aware that it could be taken away from him. He knows about the 1,237, and he knows that they can have people stay in as long as they want just to stop him from getting over the Rubicon.”
And Trump’s campaign has not ignored the basics of delegate selection.
In December, his mid-Atlantic team sent out an email seeking potential delegates for the District of Columbia’s March 12 delegate convention. In January, it sent out another email listing requirements for supporters seeking to run as Trump-endorsed delegates in Maryland.
Representatives of the campaigns of John Kasich and Jeb Bush did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
As a true political outsider, Trump, despite his history of business deal making, would likely find himself at a disadvantage after the first ballot in Cleveland, even if he enters with more delegates than any single rival.
“Donald Trump would get smoked at an open convention,” said the Southern state party chairman, who said he had seen little evidence that Trump is courting the 150 national committee members and state chairs who will serve as automatic delegates to Cleveland and unofficial leaders of their state delegations if the convention turns into a floor fight. “If they were smart, Donald Trump would call every state chair and strike up a friendship.”
A person intimately involved with Trump’s political operation confirmed that the businessman’s campaign is not courting RNC members and lamented that omission as a mistake. “Somebody’s got to be talking to these pricks and at least taking them off the accelerator and making sure they’re not working against you,” the person said.
While a contested convention could be the last chance for the Republican establishment to deny the nomination to Trump or Cruz, it is far from clear that a multiballot process will hand power to an establishment-friendly candidate such as Rubio.
In an earlier era, a handful of party bosses could settle on a nominee in a back room. Now, the current rules of delegate selection in many states are set up to reward grass-roots activists with trips to the convention, making it difficult for party officials to control the process.
In New York, where party officials have greater control over delegate selection than in most states, state GOP Chairman Ed Cox said he expects party central-committee members will confer with the campaign of whichever campaign won in each congressional district when selecting delegates from that district.
(Cox predicts the convention will end on a “contested first ballot,” in which a clear front-runner is able to pull in enough unpledged delegates to forestall a multiballot free-for-all.)
“It’s harder to stack the delegate deck,” Bennett said of the diminished influence of party power brokers. Instead, he said the RNC’s best chance to affect the outcome is its power to recommend rules for governing the convention, which delegates will vote on before turning to the task of selecting the nominee. “If Carson and Trump and Cruz don’t agree on something, they can splinter them.”
One former RNC chairman, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, suggested another soft power that the national party could assert over the outcome. The RNC’s Committee on Arrangements controls the logistics of conventions, including the allocation of staging space for campaigns’ whipping operations. In the heat of a floor fight, such details could become meaningful.
But another former chairman, Michael Steele, warned that any attempt by party insiders to nudge the nomination to a favored candidate would be disastrous. “If they want to monkey around with this process and try to fix it, they’re asking for all hell to break loose,” he said.
“Any inkling that state party officials or national party officials are colluding and conspiring to prevent a particular individual from getting the nomination,” he said, “will basically create Armageddon with the base.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/brokered-republican-convention-cleveland-219306#ixzz40S6ccz6h
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...another former chairman, Michael Steele, warned that any attempt by party insiders to nudge the nomination to a favored candidate would be disastrous. “If they want to monkey around with this process and try to fix it, they’re asking for all hell to break loose,” he said.
“Any inkling that state party officials or national party officials are colluding and conspiring to prevent a particular individual from getting the nomination,” he said, “will basically create Armageddon with the base.”
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Steele is spot on.
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Steele is spot on.
They wouldn't even let Ron Paul's people off of the bus, though, and they got away with that.
Not a word about it from these tough guys.
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Trump is the only one who will get screwed if there is a brokered convention, although the overwhelming majority of the GOP doesn't want him, so even if there is "chaos," it will likely be limited to Trump's minority of supporters within the party.
He may file lawsuits, run as an independent, throw a tantrum, talk about people's mother, etc., but he's not going to be the nominee.
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I have to believe that if it gets to a brokered convention, Rubio would be favored.
hes gotta actually win something first...
now that the universe united to tear apart Cruz, it looks like TRUMP is gonna run away with it. the idea of a 'brokered convention' when one candidate wins almost every state by double digits would fatally erode the credibility of the party itself (not that it has much left anyways).
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Trump is the only one who will get screwed if there is a brokered convention, although the overwhelming majority of the GOP doesn't want him, so even if there is "chaos," it will likely be limited to Trump's minority of supporters within the party.
He may file lawsuits, run as an independent, throw a tantrum, talk about people's mother, etc., but he's not going to be the nominee.
This should be the last thing a Republican should want, though. Pretty sure.
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hes gotta actually win something first...
now that the universe united to tear apart Cruz, it looks like TRUMP is gonna run away with it. the idea of a 'brokered convention' when one candidate wins almost every state by double digits would fatally erode the credibility of the party itself (not that it has much left anyways).
Nothing will kill the credibility of the GOP more than Trump as the GOP nominee.
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This should be the last thing a Republican should want, though. Pretty sure.
Depends. It is looking more likely that the FBI will make a criminal referral regarding Hillary. That could propel Sanders or cause Biden to jump in. A crippled Hillary is probably still most likely to be elected president, but an independent run might pull Democrats as well as Republicans.
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Nothing will kill the credibility of the GOP more than Trump as the GOP nominee.
To me, it says everything about the other choices. If the people want to get away from those clowns, send a message to them, whatever, I'm totally understanding with it.
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To me, it says everything about the other choices. If the people want to get away from those clowns, send a message to them, whatever, I'm totally understanding with it.
The overwhelming majority of votes so far are for the other choices, i.e., not for Trump.
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Depends. It is looking more likely that the FBI will make a criminal referral regarding Hillary. That could propel Sanders or cause Biden to jump in. A crippled Hillary is probably still most likely to be elected president, but an independent run might pull Democrats as well as Republicans.
Yes, so much of it depends upon how the Democrats shape up.
Just like if it looks like Bernie is going to take it from Hillary (for any reason at all), then I am 100% sure a person is already waiting to step in and take votes from Bernie in the General. No doubt.
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The overwhelming majority of votes so far are for the other choices, i.e., not for Trump.
Can't that be said about any one of them?
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Trump just needs 51% of the delegates? He'll likely have those, particularly as more people drop out.
Don't forget, Bush BEAT Rubio in NH, and he may easily beat him in SC also.
IF it goes to a brokered convention, my $ is on Jeb/Rubio ticket. NOBODY is going to out-manuever a Bush if it comes down to a deal at a table. Jeb wins it that way.
Then loses to both Trump and the Democratic nominee in the general election.
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Can't that be said about any one of them?
Yes.
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Yes.
I think there are going to be some hard feelings if a shadowy group of "insiders" decides they're going to do things their way.
But I wouldn't expect much resistance, and I think the insiders would bank on that absence of resistance, too.
Not the best of times in America, right now.
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I think there are going to be some hard feelings if a shadowy group of "insiders" decides they're going to do things their way.
But I wouldn't expect much resistance, and I think the insiders would bank on that absence of resistance, too.
Not the best of times in America, right now.
If Hillary, Sanders, Trump, or Bush are elected, then I agree.
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Trump is the only one who will get screwed if there is a brokered convention, although the overwhelming majority of the GOP doesn't want him, so even if there is "chaos," it will likely be limited to Trump's minority of supporters within the party.
He may file lawsuits, run as an independent, throw a tantrum, talk about people's mother, etc., but he's not going to be the nominee.
It's funny though - the PEOPLE doing the actual VOTING want TRUMP to be the nominee. Overwhelmingly.
The party itself? They're very much against Trump being the nominee.
We're now at the point where getbiggers have to choose between supporting the will of the PEOPLE, and the will of the PARTY.
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If Hillary, Sanders, Trump, or Bush are elected, then I agree.
Unless bloomberg enters, or jeb/kasich steals it at the convention... how in the world isn't the next president one of these 3? (and jeb)
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If Hillary, Sanders, Trump, or Bush are elected, then I agree.
How are you okay with Rubio, though, seeing as how he plays shop with a guy like Schumer?
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How are you okay with Rubio, though, seeing as how he plays shop with a guy like Schumer?
Because I like his intelligence, foreign policy knowledge, commitment to national security, his position on taxes, and he is best positioned to beat Hillary.
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Because I like his intelligence, foreign policy knowledge, commitment to national security, his position on taxes, and he is best positioned to beat Hillary.
at least we've reached the point where you're openly calling for Rubio at 12-15% to somehow be handed the nomination over Trump, who is at 35-40%.
Screw what the voters want.... it's what those in power want, right? ;)
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Because I like his intelligence, foreign policy knowledge, commitment to national security, his position on taxes, and he is best positioned to beat Hillary.
Having people invade our borders sounds pretty dangerous to our security, though, doesn't it?
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Having people invade our borders sounds pretty dangerous to our security, though, doesn't it?
I don't support amnesty. I'm also unaware of Radical Islamists coming across the border the past few decades posing as Mexicans.
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Having people invade our borders sounds pretty dangerous to our security, though, doesn't it?
not if you don't live in the mainland united states.
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I don't support amnesty. I'm also unaware of Radical Islamists coming across the border the past few decades posing as Mexicans.
What's your take on the exchange that took place between Rubio and Cruz in the last debate?
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What's your take on the exchange that took place between Rubio and Cruz in the last debate?
Posted it in the GOP thread.
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Posted it in the GOP thread.
I know. But what are your thoughts on that part?
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I know. But what are your thoughts on that part?
Same as they were on Monday. :)
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Same as they were on Monday. :)
You didn't say, though.
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You didn't say, though.
Actually I did yo.
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Actually I did yo.
Not at all. You didn't give your opinion.
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I'm also unaware of Radical Islamists coming across the border the past few decades posing as Mexicans.
Muslim Terrorists Crossing US/Mexican Border
[ Invalid YouTube link ]
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foreign policy knowledge
Let’s face it, neocons like Marco Rubio bear some of the blame for Benghazi
“Senator Rubio emphatically supported Hillary Clinton in toppling [Muammar] Qaddafi in Libya. I think that made no sense,” Cruz told Bloomberg Politics in a wide-ranging and exclusive interview during a campaign swing through Iowa. He argued that the 2011 bombings that toppled the Libyan leader didn’t help the fight against terrorists. “Qaddafi was a bad man, he had a horrible human rights record. And yet … he had become a significant ally in fighting radical Islamic terrorism.”
“The terrorist attack that occurred in Benghazi was a direct result of that massive foreign policy blunder,” Cruz said during a drive eastward from a town-hall event near Iowa City to another in the town of Clinton…
“If you look at President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and for that matter some of the more aggressive Washington neo-cons, they have consistently mis-perceived the threat of radical Islamic terrorism and have advocated military adventurism that has had the effect of benefiting radical Islamic terrorists,” he said…
On Syria, Cruz inveighed against Rubio and Clinton, Obama’s former secretary of state, for supporting a no-fly zone and arming “the so-called moderate rebels.” “I think none of that makes any sense. In my view, we have no dog in the fight of the Syrian civil war,” he said, arguing that Rubio and Clinton “are repeating the very same mistakes they made in Libya. They’ve demonstrated they’ve learned nothing.”
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/12/01/ted-cruz-lets-face-it-neocons-like-marco-rubio-bear-some-of-the-blame-for-benghazi/
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his position on taxes
Rubio's Tax Plan Would Be a Budget-Buster
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/02/11/Rubios-Tax-Plan-Would-Be-Budget-Buster
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Muslim Terrorists Crossing US/Mexican Border
[ Invalid YouTube link ]
Thanks for the link. Pretty disturbing.
That said, I don't think this addresses illegals covered by the amnesty all of the candidates have supported (illegals brought here decades ago as kids). I don't support any of them getting amnesty, but not sure Radical Islamists fall in this category.
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Not at all. You didn't give your opinion.
My entire recap of the South Carolina debate was my opinion.
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My entire recap of the South Carolina debate was my opinion.
Two of your picks went at it, so I'd like to see you to break it down with an opinion.
Why won't you do that?
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Two of your picks went at it, so I'd like to see you to break it down with an opinion.
Why won't you do that?
Reading is fundamental. Comprehension too. Along with the curser that allows you to point and click. :)
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Reading is fundamental. Comprehension too. Along with the curser that allows you to point and click. :)
So why don't you show me up, use your cursor and paste that opinion right here? Because from what I've seen, you've only avoided giving an opinion.
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So why don't you show me up, use your cursor and paste that opinion right here? Because from what I've seen, you've only avoided giving an opinion.
Because you're being lazy.
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Because you're being lazy.
You've admitted before, that Rubio and Cruz don't look well when confronted with their positions on immigrant-related issues.
You haven't changed that opinion, have you?
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Let’s face it, neocons like Marco Rubio bear some of the blame for Benghazi
“Senator Rubio emphatically supported Hillary Clinton in toppling [Muammar] Qaddafi in Libya. I think that made no sense,” Cruz told Bloomberg Politics in a wide-ranging and exclusive interview during a campaign swing through Iowa. He argued that the 2011 bombings that toppled the Libyan leader didn’t help the fight against terrorists. “Qaddafi was a bad man, he had a horrible human rights record. And yet … he had become a significant ally in fighting radical Islamic terrorism.”
“The terrorist attack that occurred in Benghazi was a direct result of that massive foreign policy blunder,” Cruz said during a drive eastward from a town-hall event near Iowa City to another in the town of Clinton…
“If you look at President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and for that matter some of the more aggressive Washington neo-cons, they have consistently mis-perceived the threat of radical Islamic terrorism and have advocated military adventurism that has had the effect of benefiting radical Islamic terrorists,” he said…
On Syria, Cruz inveighed against Rubio and Clinton, Obama’s former secretary of state, for supporting a no-fly zone and arming “the so-called moderate rebels.” “I think none of that makes any sense. In my view, we have no dog in the fight of the Syrian civil war,” he said, arguing that Rubio and Clinton “are repeating the very same mistakes they made in Libya. They’ve demonstrated they’ve learned nothing.”
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/12/01/ted-cruz-lets-face-it-neocons-like-marco-rubio-bear-some-of-the-blame-for-benghazi/
Cruz criticizing Rubio? Stop the presses. lol I don't really care much what the candidates have to say about each other.
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Actually I did yo.
you shouldn't talk like that. really.
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you shouldn't talk like that. really.
You shouldn't talk. Period. Really.
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Some South Carolina and overall numbers:
South Carolina
239,851 = Votes for Trump
498,066 = Votes for other candidates (a difference of 258,215)
Total (Iowa, NH, SC)
285,684 = Votes for Trump
818,251 = Votes for other candidates (a difference of 532,567)
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You shouldn't talk. Period. Really.
are you ready to admit (what I predicted last summer when he announced running) that the idiot third of the GOp is going to hand the nomination to the liberal moron trump?
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Nevada and overall numbers:
34,531 = Votes for Trump
40,347 = Votes for other candidates
Total (Iowa, NH, SC, NV)
320,215 = Votes for Trump
858,598 = Votes for other candidates
Trump gets less than 50 percent of the vote in Nevada. Delegates split again. In fact, the other candidates received more delegates than Trump in Nevada. The current projections through Super Tuesday show the same kind of outcome, unless the field gets smaller.
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The real question is how much Trump picks up from either candidate as they bow out. If Rubio loses Florida to Trump he's gone. So there is your answer.
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The real question is how much Trump picks up from either candidate as they bow out. If Rubio loses Florida to Trump he's gone. So there is your answer.
I agree in part. Trump obviously will roll if the former candidates' supporters get behind him. I disagree it comes down to Florida for Rubio (or anyone else). Florida has 99 delegates. The winner needs 1237.
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I agree in part. Trump obviously will roll if the former candidates' supporters get behind him. I disagree it comes down to Florida for Rubio (or anyone else). Florida has 99 delegates. The winner needs 1237.
If Trump has the delegate lead and the RNC tries to put the crown on someone else he goes third party.
People just aren't seeing how this all plays out with that scenario.
This guy is a hardcore fighter and do you really think he is gonna allow himself to get f'd over in that manner? Hell no.
In the end Trump has all the leverage in the world if he continues to rack up first place finishes. He WILL have the delegate lead and the RNC won't be able to dick him around. Trump has more power than the RNC at this point, an inconvenient truth for many it seems.
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If Trump has the delegate lead and the RNC tries to put the crown on someone else he goes third party.
People just aren't seeing how this all plays out with that scenario.
This guy is a hardcore fighter and do you really think he is gonna allow himself to get f'd over in that manner? Hell no.
In the end Trump has all the leverage in the world if he continues to rack up first place finishes. He WILL have the delegate lead and the RNC won't be able to dick him around. Trump has more power than the RNC at this point, an inconvenient truth for many it seems.
It will be too late. He will not have enough time to get on the ballot as an independent in all 50 states. Even if he does, he isn't going to win as an independent.
I think most people are not paying attention to the massive amounts of voters who don't like Trump and have not voted for him in the first four states.
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It will be too late. He will not have enough time to get on the ballot as an independent in all 50 states. Even if he does, he isn't going to win as an independent.
I think most people are not paying attention to the massive amounts of voters who don't like Trump and have not voted for him in the first four states.
Trump loses Iowa and probably loses Texas.
Florida is a potential coin flip.
Kasich is a wounded animal and Trump likely takes Ohio.
That being said we could very well see a scenario where Trump wins 46 states.
I live in the South where there are a ton of Cruz supporters...guess who their second choice is? Trump.
So we have a situation where Trump collects a ton of first place finishes while Cruz and Rubio battle for second AND if Cruz does drop out, many of those supporters will go to Trump because Rubio SUCKS on immigration and immigration is the 800 pound gorilla issue in this primary. THE MOST important issue.
Trump also benefits more from a Carson withdrawal than Rubio does.
Even if it was Rubio vs. Trump mano a mano I would put my money on Trump.
And I know alot of really good people who hate Trump but they are absolutely delusional if they think he will not be the nominee.
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It will be too late. He will not have enough time to get on the ballot as an independent in all 50 states. Even if he does, he isn't going to win as an independent.
I think most people are not paying attention to the massive amounts of voters who don't like Trump and have not voted for him in the first four states.
He's saying that a Trump Indy run would cost the Republican and give it to Hillary. So if the Republican "leadership" wants to keep Hillary out of power, then they'd have no choice but to run Trump.
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Maybe that explains the stories appearing in the RW media about how Trump is "worse" than Hillary.
I swear, everything keeps pointing to Hillary. So help me, I'd nearly be willing to say her people are behind all of this.
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Trump loses Iowa and probably loses Texas.
Florida is a potential coin flip.
Kasich is a wounded animal and Trump likely takes Ohio.
That being said we could very well see a scenario where Trump wins 46 states.
I live in the South where there are a ton of Cruz supporters...guess who their second choice is? Trump.
So we have a situation where Trump collects a ton of first place finishes while Cruz and Rubio battle for second AND if Cruz does drop out, many of those supporters will go to Trump because Rubio SUCKS on immigration and immigration is the 800 pound gorilla issue in this primary. THE MOST important issue.
Trump also benefits more from a Carson withdrawal than Rubio does.
Even if it was Rubio vs. Trump mano a mano I would put my money on Trump.
And I know alot of really good people who hate Trump but they are absolutely delusional if they think he will not be the nominee.
That's not what I'm seeing. In looking at Nate Silver's polling/projections, this is what he currently shows:
Georgia: dead heat between Trump and Rubio
Mass: big lead by Trump, but still under 50 percent, with Rubio second
Okla: Trump in first by first by small margin over Cruz
Texas: Cruz in first, Rubio and Trump essentially tied for second
VA: Rubio first, Trump, then Cruz
That's just the 1 March "SEC" primary.
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He's saying that a Trump Indy run would cost the Republican and give it to Hillary. So if the Republican "leadership" wants to keep Hillary out of power, then they'd have no choice but to run Trump.
Yeah it's all summed up with one word: Leverage.
That plus this guy is an obvious competitive maniac who isn't going to sit back and take it in the a*s after he wins 40 states.
Literally EVERYBODY but Rubio would have to drop out today, and then Marco would have to start racking up first place finishes head to head all the way to the convention.
You have a scenario where that happens AND Rubio comes in with more delegates and then Trump would probably accept his loss.
Some backhanded fuckery by the RNC? Forget about it....Trump is a 70 year old billionaire with a great lifestyle, a great business and a great family. Absolutely zero to lose with his actions. He would put a knife through the heart of the RNC in a second if they choose to go down that road.
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Here is what I have been saying about Trump's negatives.
January 30, 2016
(http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/ny3t2cbxiuyd0gizj40hfg.png)
Trump's Negative Image
by Frank Newport
Most political and media commentators have at this point installed Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner on the eve of the first actual voting set to begin on Monday in Iowa. But this narrative tends to obscure the fact that Trump is the most unpopular candidate of either party when the entire U.S. population is taken into account -- and that he has a higher unfavorable rating than any nominated candidate from either of the two major parties going back to the 1992 election when we began to track favorability using the current format.
At this point (two-week average through Jan. 27), 33% of Americans view Trump favorably and 60% unfavorably. It's that 60% unfavorable figure that I can focus on here.
Hillary Clinton currently has a 52% unfavorable rating among all Americans, while Jeb Bush is at 45%, Chris Christie 38%, Ted Cruz 37%, Marco Rubio 33%, Bernie Sanders 31% and Ben Carson 30%. Trump's 60% is clearly well above all of these. Putting his favorable and unfavorable ratings together yields a net favorable of -27 for Trump, far above the -10 for Clinton and for Bush, the next lowest among the major candidates.
I wanted to see how Trump's unfavorable played out in the context of previous elections, so I went back to look at the unfavorable ratings of the major-party candidates from 1992 through the current election. The bottom line is that Trump now has a higher unfavorable rating than any candidate at any time during all of these previous election cycles, and that conclusion takes into account the fact that unfavorable ratings tend to rise in the heat of a general election campaign as the barbs, negative ads and heightened partisanship are taken to their highest levels. Gallup routinely reports favorable ratings based on national adults, but some of the favorable ratings in the final months of an election year that I discuss below are based on registered voters.
Bill Clinton's highest unfavorable rating in the 1992 election was 49% (in April and July of that year). His opponent, George H.W. Bush, came closest to Trump's current unfavorable rating in October 1992, as Election Day approached and he received a 57% unfavorable rating in Gallup's tracking.
In 1996, Clinton's highest unfavorable was even lower, at 44%, while his opponent, Bob Dole, never rose above a 47% unfavorable.
The 2000 election, as now, was for an open seat, pitting the sitting Vice President Al Gore against Texas Gov. George W. Bush. Gore's highest unfavorable was 42% before the November voting, rising to one reading of 52% unfavorable in December 2000 as the disputed popular vote count in Florida continued. Bush was more popular; his unfavorable rating in 2000 never rose above 41% before the election, although, like Gore's, it edged up during the recount.
When Bush was running for re-election in 2004, his highest unfavorable was 47%, while John Kerry's highest was 45%. (Both men did receive higher unfavorable ratings later on; I'll return to Bush's story below.)
In 2008, Barack Obama maintained a very popular image, with an unfavorable rating maxing out at 37%, while John McCain also remained popular with a maximum unfavorable of 44%. And when running for re-election in 2012, Obama's unfavorable crept up to 48%, while his opponent, Mitt Romney, also maxed out at 48%.
Looking across all of these candidates' unfavorable ratings outside of election years yields this conclusion: Only one of them, George W. Bush, ever had an unfavorable rating of 60% or higher. For Bush, his unpopularity crested in his final lame-duck year in office, with an unfavorable rating that hit 66% in April 2008.
By comparison, Bill Clinton's highest unfavorable rating in Gallup's history of rating him has been 59% in March 2001 after he left office amid criticism of his pardons and issues relating to White House furniture. The highest unfavorable for his wife, Hillary, came in that same March 2001 poll -- at 53% -- a figure she has matched several times in the current campaign.
One candidate I haven't mentioned here is Ross Perot. The maverick third-party candidate's unfavorable rating did reach above 60% at points in both the 1992 and 1996 campaigns, no doubt because neither party had any loyalty toward him. Perot got 19% of the popular vote in 1992 and 8% in 1996.
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188936/trump-negative-image.aspx
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Yeah it's all summed up with one word: Leverage.
That plus this guy is an obvious competitive maniac who isn't going to sit back and take it in the a*s after he wins 40 states.
Literally EVERYBODY but Rubio would have to drop out today, and then Marco would have to start racking up first place finishes head to head all the way to the convention.
You have a scenario where that happens AND Rubio comes in with more delegates and then Trump would probably accept his loss.
Some backhanded fuckery by the RNC? Forget about it....Trump is a 70 year old billionaire with a great lifestyle, a great business and a great family. Absolutely zero to lose with his actions. He would put a knife through the heart of the RNC in a second if they choose to go down that road.
I think Trump would do his absolute best to be a good, effective president. I'd be willing to give it shot, against the reality of this field. Let's face it, Ms. Hil is going to be the opposition, and that should make the choice very clear.
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That's not what I'm seeing. In looking at Nate Silver's polling/projections, this is what he currently shows:
Georgia: dead heat between Trump and Rubio
Mass: big lead by Trump, but still under 50 percent, with Rubio second
Okla: Trump in first by first by small margin over Cruz
Texas: Cruz in first, Rubio and Trump essentially tied for second
VA: Rubio first, Trump, then Cruz
That's just the 1 March "SEC" primary.
Maybe Rubio takes VA...I'll grant you that one because I don't know much about that scenario.
Trump finishing THIRD in Texas? That's a tough one to see.
I'm pretty plugged in down here with the political scene and I'd say it's about 50% Cruz 35% Trump and the occasional Rubio fan.
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Politics are almost like a soap opera or murder mystery at times haha :D
All these different scenarios...
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Maybe Rubio takes VA...I'll grant you that one because I don't know much about that scenario.
Trump finishing THIRD in Texas? That's a tough one to see.
I'm pretty plugged in down here with the political scene and I'd say it's about 50% Cruz 35% Trump and the occasional Rubio fan.
Well I cannot argue with what you are seeing first hand. I will say, however, that Nate Silver is the man. Very accurate. That's who I'm following during the election season.
Also, I cannot put my finger on it right now, but I've seen polls that show Rubio or Cruz beating the crap out of Trump in a two-person race, which makes sense when you see the votes from the first four states.
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I think Trump would do his absolute best to be a good, effective president. I'd be willing to give it shot, against the reality of this field. Let's face it, Ms. Hil is going to be the opposition, and that should make the choice very clear.
With the death of Justice Scalia this became a Supreme Court Election.
A Liberal Supreme Court would irreparably change this country.
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With the death of Justice Scalia this became a Supreme Court Election.
A Liberal Supreme Court would irreparably change this country.
Not sure what you could count on in that regard with Trump, though. But I don't know. Have you followed his comments on it?
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Well I cannot argue with what you are seeing first hand. I will say, however, that Nate Silver is the man. Very accurate. That's who I'm following during the election season.
Also, I cannot put my finger on it right now, but I've seen polls that show Rubio or Cruz beating the crap out of Trump in a two-person race, which makes sense when you see the votes from the first four states.
I don't know that much about him. I know he has had a very solid reputation in the past but as a pretty regular follower of Morning Joe(yeah I know it's terrible, I just enjoy the contrast of Mika and Joe for some bizarre reason) I know that Scarborough has been pretty harsh on him lately concerning his predictions. If I spoke any further on this I would look like a fool because I simply don't know that much more about Nate but Joe seems to believe that his predictions haven't been that on point here lately?
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I don't know that much about him. I know he has had a very solid reputation in the past but as a pretty regular follower of Morning Joe(yeah I know it's terrible, I just enjoy the contrast of Mika and Joe for some bizarre reason) I know that Scarborough has been pretty harsh on him lately concerning his predictions. If I spoke any further on this I would look like a fool because I simply don't know that much more about Nate but Joe seems to believe that his predictions haven't been that on point here lately?
I've been posting his predictions and the results. He has been right pretty much across the board.
Check out his site. You can look at each state's predictions and poll numbers if they're available. He made a believer out of me years ago. http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/
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Not sure what you could count on in that regard with Trump, though. But I don't know. Have you followed his comments on it?
I'll take ANY of the top 20 or 30 GOP Candidates over Hillary when it comes down to naming the next Supreme Court Justice. Whether I like them for their political views or not. The Supreme Court means THAT MUCH.
Here lately I've been watching this guy Erick Ericson over at redstate basically saying he is going to stay home if it comes down to a Trump vs. Hillary election.
And I just use him for an example. Hell, Glen Beck is the same way. By these guys staying at home because of their butthurt feelings it makes it that much easier for Hillary to step in and appoint Liberal justices.
I think that is where we are seeing alot of backlash. People who lean right don't necessarily worship the tradition forms of "conservatism". It's almost like this checklist of beliefs you have to subscribe to in order to be "legit".
And sadly, these same people are talking about staying home because Trump doesn't check all those boxes. The GOP is an absolute mess right now.
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Trump loses Iowa and probably loses Texas.
Florida is a potential coin flip.
Kasich is a wounded animal and Trump likely takes Ohio.
That being said we could very well see a scenario where Trump wins 46 states.
I live in the South where there are a ton of Cruz supporters...guess who their second choice is? Trump.
So we have a situation where Trump collects a ton of first place finishes while Cruz and Rubio battle for second AND if Cruz does drop out, many of those supporters will go to Trump because Rubio SUCKS on immigration and immigration is the 800 pound gorilla issue in this primary. THE MOST important issue.
Trump also benefits more from a Carson withdrawal than Rubio does.
Even if it was Rubio vs. Trump mano a mano I would put my money on Trump.
And I know alot of really good people who hate Trump but they are absolutely delusional if they think he will not be the nominee.
Disagree with most of this. Cruz up 8 in TX and it's sliding. He loses that, it's a sweep. Kasich gets 2nd in OH. Rubio gets a good 2nd in FL, but that's it.
Trump is VERY popular in FL... everyone I know loves his ignorant ass. I'm ready to cuss out one relative, a sleazebag cheating pothead drunk driver, saying Trump will make america great... fuccksticks like YOU are what makes this country shit, you drunk driving prick... sorry,. I dislike the guy lol.
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Disagree with most of this. Cruz up 8 in TX and it's sliding. He loses that, it's a sweep. Kasich gets 2nd in OH. Rubio gets a good 2nd in FL, but that's it.
Trump is VERY popular in FL... everyone I know loves his ignorant ass. I'm ready to cuss out one relative, a sleazebag cheating pothead drunk driver, saying Trump will make america great... fuccksticks like YOU are what makes this country shit, you drunk driving prick... sorry,. I dislike the guy lol.
Hillary has a potential enthusiasm/voter turnout problem. The handful of democrat friends I know just aren't excited about her this year. In 08 they were crawling over broken glass to vote for Obama and still showed up in '12. From what I hear they probably won't even bother to vote this year.
Oh course a voting booth is simply a snapshot in time but when I went in for early voting yesterday I seen 3 old timers wearing Trump shirts so that could mean something. Still think Cruz edges Texas out because Texans adore him but it will be in the single digits for sure. Aside from your occasional rogue Ben Carson or Marco Rubio fan, Trump is generally the second choice behind Ted or Ted just behind Trump.
You are right though, if Trump edges out Texas then stick a fork in this race.
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Exactly what I've been saying: "The 963 delegates — 39 percent of the convention's total — to be selected in 24 contests between March 1 and March 12 will all be awarded proportionally. This means he could win the headlines but capture a minority of the delegates — unless he unites the GOP."
Rove: Trump Does Not Have 'Lock' on Nomination
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=c0bcf488-bdee-4c6f-93d6-5fd368515ff1&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: Rove: Trump Does Not Have 'Lock' on Nomination (Getty Images)
By Cathy Burke | Thursday, 25 Feb 2016
Front-running GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump doesn't yet have a "lock" on the nomination, but time is running out for another candidate to defeat him, according to political strategist Karl Rove.
In a commentary for The Wall Street Journal, the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff during the George W. Bush administration argues the GOP nomination — "as long as three or more candidates are splitting delegates" in proportional contests — may stay "uncertain" until March 15.
But he could also seal the deal then "if a fragmented opposition gives him an absolute majority of delegates on that day," Rove writes.
The delegate numbers will be crucial, Rove writes.
"Even a weak Trump plurality on March 15 would give him Florida's 99 delegates and Ohio's 66 delegates," he writes. "Additionally, if a majority of Republicans oppose Mr. Trump that day, but are divided among several candidates, he could also take the lion's share of Illinois's 69 and Missouri's 52 delegates."
There's "still time for the non-Trump GOP majority to coalesce around a single candidate," Rove writes. "But not much."
"Things can remain somewhat divided on March 1 as long as the majority is largely unified on March 8 and fully behind a single candidate on the Ides of March. If not, the hopes of the party's non-Trump majority will suffer the same fate as Caesar."
Rove calls Trump's latest win in November "very impressive," noting "after four contests, only 133 of the convention's 2,472 delegates have been selected," and the caucus victory in Nevada "does not necessarily a consolidation make."
"Mr. Trump is supported by better than three of every 10 Republicans, but some 65 percent aren't in his camp," he writes.
"The 963 delegates — 39 percent of the convention's total — to be selected in 24 contests between March 1 and March 12 will all be awarded proportionally. This means he could win the headlines but capture a minority of the delegates — unless he unites the GOP."
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Karl-Rove-Trump-Lock-Nomination/2016/02/25/id/716063/#ixzz41D38rrct
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Ten of the states are winner takes all, and in the other contests, he's gonna average 20 more % of the delegates than the others.
He's gonna own it by the time the liberals in hawaii take their nightly bubble baths on super tuesday.
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Marco Rubio Teases Brokered Convention: After First Round, Delegates Vote For Whoever They Want
(http://media.breitbart.com/media/2016/02/AP_449611162268-640x480.jpg)
Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio speaks at a rally Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016, in Houston. ()AP/Pat Sullivan
by CHARLIE SPIERING
26 Feb 2016
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is again floating the possibility that Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), or he himself might fail to earn the necessary 1,236 delegates required to win the Republican presidential nomination.
That would mean taking the fight to a brokered convention.
During an interview on CBS “This Morning,” Rubio was questioned about a CNN report that revealed Rubio’s campaign manager had prepared donors in New York for the possibility.
“If you look at the way it’s going now, no one may have that number of delegates and that in and of itself would trigger a convention in which after the first round, delegates are free to vote for whoever they want,” Rubio said.
That scenario would create a chaotic process at the Republican convention in July — unlike any other nomination since 1948. Rubio indicated that he didn’t want a brokered convention to happen, but that he was ready for the possibility.
“I would not prefer that to be the case, I would much rather just have someone win the nomination in this process, but not a con artist like Donald Trump,” Rubio said.
Last night in the debate spin room, Rubio campaign manager Terry Sullivan teased reporters about his strategy.
“It’s a beautiful plan. Yooge. You’ll love it. You’ll love it,” he told NBC reporter Alexandra Jaffe.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/26/marco-rubios-brokered-convention-plan-after-first-round-delegates-can-vote-for-whoever-they-want/
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rubio is such a snake. He doesn't even argue that the people of these states aren't choosing him.
it's just "hey, we can wiggle the system to give me the win, even if that's not what people want".
Politicians rise or fall once they get the spotlight. Rubio has turned out to be a shitbird.
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Wants to be VP.....how pissed would u be if you were a Rubio guy and gives his shit to friggen Trump to be VP.
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But rubio will likely won no states.
I'm shocked that he 2016 field is this bad
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Marco Rubio Teases Brokered Convention: After First Round, Delegates Vote For Whoever They Want
(http://media.breitbart.com/media/2016/02/AP_449611162268-640x480.jpg)
Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio speaks at a rally Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2016, in Houston. ()AP/Pat Sullivan
by CHARLIE SPIERING
26 Feb 2016
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is again floating the possibility that Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), or he himself might fail to earn the necessary 1,236 delegates required to win the Republican presidential nomination.
That would mean taking the fight to a brokered convention.
During an interview on CBS “This Morning,” Rubio was questioned about a CNN report that revealed Rubio’s campaign manager had prepared donors in New York for the possibility.
“If you look at the way it’s going now, no one may have that number of delegates and that in and of itself would trigger a convention in which after the first round, delegates are free to vote for whoever they want,” Rubio said.
That scenario would create a chaotic process at the Republican convention in July — unlike any other nomination since 1948. Rubio indicated that he didn’t want a brokered convention to happen, but that he was ready for the possibility.
“I would not prefer that to be the case, I would much rather just have someone win the nomination in this process, but not a con artist like Donald Trump,” Rubio said.
Last night in the debate spin room, Rubio campaign manager Terry Sullivan teased reporters about his strategy.
“It’s a beautiful plan. Yooge. You’ll love it. You’ll love it,” he told NBC reporter Alexandra Jaffe.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/26/marco-rubios-brokered-convention-plan-after-first-round-delegates-can-vote-for-whoever-they-want/
Well that basically tells you everything you need to know about that little weasel.
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Trump just needs 51% of the delegates? He'll likely have those, particularly as more people drop out.
Don't forget, Bush BEAT Rubio in NH, and he may easily beat him in SC also.
IF it goes to a brokered convention, my $ is on Jeb/Rubio ticket. NOBODY is going to out-manuever a Bush if it comes down to a deal at a table. Jeb wins it that way.
Boy how these things change in a week or so. Maybe you $ would be better placed on a Rubio/Bush ticket, huh?
My person hope it that Trump's ego will induce him to spend himself poor in order to try and win the election. Didn't he say he was self-funding his campaign?
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trump said the other day that he's now accepting donations lol
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It's funny though - the PEOPLE doing the actual VOTING want TRUMP to be the nominee. Overwhelmingly.
The party itself? They're very much against Trump being the nominee.
We're now at the point where getbiggers have to choose between supporting the will of the PEOPLE, and the will of the PARTY.
Open primaries will do that.
Thank the GOP/RNC establishment for switching to those after 1984. The GOP didn't want another Reagan.
Think about that.
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it's such a historically unique time. our grandkids are going to ask us about the 2016 election.
Trump is classless populist liberal, calling people LOWLIFES and PU$$IES... and he's shit all over everyone in power in the republican party...
yet he is BY FAR the choice of the PEOPLE.
He'll wreck the GOP, whether he wins or loses 40 states against hilary (one of these will happen). The repub party will be a train wreck.
I've said it all along - Trump will terrorize the GOP and make their nomination a process, destroying Gop careers and bernie too (commie!! accusations)
And in the end, trump will either win, or lose, 40 states against hilary. SO FAR, I've been correct. We should be looking at Jeb!/Walker as the obvious ticket right now... and trump punked all of them to oblivion. Rubio is a dribbling robot, Cruz is a lying canadian who isn't even eligible to be president... carson is like a pedophile, jeb is a low energy loser... I mean, he's stained these folks in a way they may never return from... NO DEM could do that kind of damage ;)
Trump is a plant. I said it in 2011. Conservative columnis george willl said it in 2015. It's true. Bill clinton admitted calling and 'encouraging trump to get more involved" just days before he announced his run.
The shittiest thing for "repubs" on getbid will be admitted that shitbag libs like 240 called trump exactly for the lib plant that he is, on DAY ONE, and predicted his rise and the powerhouse repubs falls. And I was proven correct. He will easily win this nomination thru chaos, then win or lose by 40 states. He does NOT want this job - he wants to live in his penthouse while his company builds the mex wall and hilary brings healthcare to the nation, and big govt spending to recover economy.... and they planned all along.
Getbig 'conservatives' will see it in the coming months.
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How the GOP Insiders Plan to Steal the Nod From Trump
(http://media.breitbart.com/media/2016/02/Trump-this-many-Getty-640x480.jpg)
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump February 23, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Ethan Miller/Getty Images
by Roger Stone and Ed Martin
1 Mar 2016
“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.” – Eric Hoffer
Despite a growing string of victories in the Republican primaries ,the DC-Wall Street cabal that has dominated the GOP since 1988 has no intention of letting the billionaire real estate mogul be nominated. None other than Karl Rove has insisted the stop-Trump effort is not too late and can succeed.
A new superPAC has dumped $10 million dollars into blistering negative TV ads against Trump in the last three days. The Koch brothers and their associates deny funding the effort but they denials are questionable at best. The New York Times reported Sunday that the Rubio and Kasich campaigns are now openly planning on a ‘brokered convention” to stop Trump in the back rooms in Cleveland. The New York Daily News reported that Barbara Bush has vowed revenge against Trump for ending the “low energy” campaign of her son Jeb, the anointed one and that the Bush clan is all-in in the effort to stop Trump. The News reported that Jeb may transfer the $25 to $30 million in SuperPAC funds he has left to an anti-Trump effort
The power-brokers short term game is clear; stall Trump just short of the magic number of delegates needed to be nominated on the first ballot with the knowledge that many delegates bound on the first ballot by Trump primary and caucus victories would be unbound on a second ballot. Much in the way the RNC stacked the galleries with anti-Trump partisans in the last two debates, anti-Trump quislings are be planted in various delegations that will be free to betray Trump on subsequent ballots.
If Cruz prevails in Texas and Kasich can hold Ohio the insiders game of “keep away “could get some legs. The cabal of billionaires who are bankrolling Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) have served notice on the young Senator that he must win his home state of Florida on March 15 or get the hook. Mitt Romney, who passed up the 2016 race because he deemed Jeb Bush unstoppable (!) is suited up to enter late primaries in California, New Jersey and elsewhere in the hopes that the party would turn to him on a second ballot. This explains why Romney has suddenly emerged as a twitter critic of Trump’s chiding him for not releasing his tax returns in the middle of an IRS audit and not renouncing the support of former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke fast enough.
The Republican nomination process was already rigged: the campaigns of the four early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada) have been traditionally controlled by high paid consultants and party leaders who convince candidates to spend hundreds of millions on media, staff and early state “necessities.” The big money needed has to come from somewhere–namely from special interests who demand loyalty on key issues: government handouts/bailouts, open borders, and especially big government. The demands of early big money usually clear the field of anyone unacceptable to the Republican Racketeers: when Newt or Santorum didn’t play along in 2012, they were swamped under by big money.
In 2016, Trump doesn’t need the racketeers money because he has the Republican grassroots, but the racketeers have one last play: fix the Rules of the Conventions. For example, do you know how many delegates Trump must get to be nominated for president today? Zero. Cruz, Rubio, and all the rest? Also zero. Why? Because the Rule that allows them to be nominated (Rule 40) requires “permanently seated delegates” for nomination. But that won’t happen until the Credentials Committee meets at the convention!
Then there is rule 40-B.Please note that Rule 40 as it is currently written expires on the day before the convention when the Rules Committee meets to make up the new Rules of the Convention and for the Republican Party for the next 4 years. Rule 40-B currently requires a nominee to have “the “majority of the permanently seated delegates from at least 8 states.” Romney lawyer Ben Ginsberg was able to change Rule 40 from “plurality of the delegates from at least 5 states” to the current rule. The potential for skullduggery is clear. Even if Trump runs the tables in the primaries winning a plurality in virtually every state the rule can be tailored by a controlled Rules Committee to prevent a Trump nomination.
Rule 40-B used to require a majority in six states but when Congressman Ron Paul met that goal it was quickly changed to eight states. Under control of the insiders the number of states required can be amended to any number to block Trump.
Also, the goal of the extended nomination process will be to make it so either no one gets to eight states (or what ever number the establishment changes it to) Then, under the guise of letting “the voters be heard”, the Rules committee will make a more lax Rule 40. After all, Cruz and Rubio and Romney “deserve to be nominated,” they will argue. Romney will enter the late primaries because he is concerned that Rule 40 B will be changed to allow only those who won some delegates from voters in the states to be considered and because he might stand a better chance of chiseling delegates from Trump in late “’winner take all” primaries than the hapless Rubio.
Surely the party pros know that a nomination wrenched from the hands of Donald Trump would be worthless but they don’t care. The ruling elite that has dominated the party would rather have globalist Hillary Clinton than the uncontrollable nationalist Donald Trump. The idea of a president not beholden to the ruling elite is more than they can stand.
There are many great aphorisms in politics but this one may be the key to who ends up President: he who knows the rules, rules. Right now, it’s Reince and the Racketeers who know them best. Beware Republicans: the big steal is coming.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/01/how-the-gop-insiders-plan-to-steal-the-nod-from-trump/
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How the GOP Insiders Plan to Steal the Nod From Trump
Trump is an ass.
But wow... the will of the people is actually Trump. That's what more republicans want.
It's like elections matter nothing, when 200 people in Washington can overturn the will of tens of millions of voters.
I'm guessing, since you agree with them this time - you're okay with this, then? ;)
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Brokered convention still a possibility after Super Tuesday:
Trump 319
Cruz 226
Rubio 110
Kasich 25
Carson 8
Bush 4
Fiorina 1
Huckabee 1
Paul 1
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primaries
A lot will depend on Florida and Ohio.
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Brokered convention still a possibility after Super Tuesday:
Trump 319
Cruz 226
Rubio 110
Kasich 25
Carson 8
Bush 4
Fiorina 1
Huckabee 1
Paul 1
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/primaries
A lot will depend on Florida and Ohio.
you're really looking fwd to the GOP completely undermining the will of republican voters.
I love it.
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Nevada and overall numbers:
34,531 = Votes for Trump
40,347 = Votes for other candidates
Total (Iowa, NH, SC, NV)
320,215 = Votes for Trump
858,598 = Votes for other candidates
Trump gets less than 50 percent of the vote in Nevada. Delegates split again. In fact, the other candidates received more delegates than Trump in Nevada. The current projections through Super Tuesday show the same kind of outcome, unless the field gets smaller.
Super Tuesday totals:
2,945,652 = Votes for Trump
5,409,738 = Votes for other candidates
Total:
3,265,867 = Votes for Trump
6,268,336 = Votes for other candidates
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I love the new defense of overthrowing Trump.
"The ANTI-TRUMP votes are a higher number, so they have an unknowing and unwilling coalition".
I guess this rule didn't apply to Mitt or Mccain when they had less than 50%, huh? ;)
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Super Tuesday totals:
2,945,652 = Votes for Trump
5,409,738 = Votes for other candidates
Total:
3,265,867 = Votes for Trump
6,268,336 = Votes for other candidates
What does this mean? If you split those other votes among the other candidates, every one of the GOP candidates except for Trump is in trouble. It's not like 6,268,366 voters are not going to vote for Trump in the general election if he is nominated and at this point he appears to be unstoppable.
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What does this mean? If you split those other votes among the other candidates, every one of the GOP candidates except for Trump is in trouble. It's not like 6,268,366 voters are not going to vote for Trump in the general election if he is nominated and at this point he appears to be unstoppable.
It means several things:
1. The overwhelming majority of Republican voters do not support Trump.
2. Given the number of voters who don't support him, he may not get to 1237 delegates.
3. They dispel the notion that Trump is someone the GOP wants. The numbers clearly show they don't want him.
4. They support the poll numbers showing a sizable number of voters will never support Trump. That means all of those non-Trump voters are not going to flock to him as the field narrows, and they will not support him in November if he wins the nomination.
5. They support the percentage of votes he got on Super Tuesday, which I heard was about 35 percent. In other words, 65 percent voted for someone else.
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They dispel the notion that Trump is someone the GOP wants. The numbers clearly show they don't want him.
But isn't it true the numbers clearly show they want everyone else even less?
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But isn't it true the numbers clearly show they want everyone else even less?
Perhaps. The difference is people aren't touting anyone else as some kind of runaway choice.
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Perhaps. The difference is people aren't touting anyone else as some kind of runaway choice.
But there may be people scheming to remove the choice.
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But there may be people scheming to remove the choice.
Good.
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Good.
As long as they don't do it to you, you mean.
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As long as they don't do it to you, you mean.
They could never do it to me.
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They could never do it to me.
Please tell me that's a typo.
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Please tell me that's a typo.
Not a typo.
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Not a typo.
The reasoning behind a move by the GOP, could be attributed to a fear that Hillary would beat him. Is that it, or is it something else?
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The reasoning behind a move by the GOP, could be attributed to a fear that Hillary would beat him. Is that it, or is it something else?
That's only part of it. There is also the fact that:
1. He's not a conservative.
2. He's not even a Republican.
3. He is everything Mitt Romney just described in his press conference.
4. The overwhelming majority of the GOP does not support him.
5. He could destroy the GOP (including causing loss of the House and/or Senate) and damage the country if he is elected.
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That's only part of it. There is also the fact that:
1. He's not a conservative.
2. He's not even a Republican.
3. He is everything Mitt Romney just described in his press conference.
4. The overwhelming majority of the GOP does not support him.
5. He could destroy the GOP (including causing loss of the House and/or Senate) and damage the country if he is elected.
If it appeared Carson had built the same approximate numbers as Trump: would you be open to hearing an argument as to why certain people in the GOP would like to nix that choice in favor of someone else?
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If it appeared Carson built the same approximate numbers as Trump: would you be open to hearing an argument as to why certain people in the GOP would like to nix that choice in favor of someone else?
What does Carson have to do with this? Carson doesn't have the same numbers as Trump, isn't anywhere close to the charlatan Trump is, and isn't even running anymore.
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What does Carson have to do with this? Carson doesn't have the same numbers as Trump, isn't anywhere close to the charlatan Trump is, and isn't even running anymore.
Carson has something to do with this, because you've expressed support for him. If you can back up your claim that "they could never" do it to you, it should be easy to explain.
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Carson has something to do with this, because you've expressed support for him. If you can back up your claim that "they could never" do it to you, it should be easy to explain.
You are confused. I haven't supported anyone for president. I like Carson, just as I like Christie, Cruz, Rubio, and Webb. And my claim that they could never do it to me is a fact: I am never going to run for office or a be presidential candidate, so it's impossible for them to do it to me.
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You are confused. I haven't supported anyone for president. I like Carson, just as I like Christie, Cruz, Rubio, and Webb. And my claim that they could never do it to me is a fact: I am never going to run for office or a be presidential candidate, so it's impossible for them to do it to me.
Oh, so that's what you meant.
::)
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Oh, so that's what you meant.
::)
I say what I mean and mean what I say. :)
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As long as they don't do it to you, you mean.
As long as he AGREES with the person being targeted, then he's okay with the will of the people being overridden by party elites.
If Ron Paul tried that, he'd be throwing Skittles and screaming his little lungs out.
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A brokered convention occurs when none of the presidential candidates enters their party’s national convention having won enough delegates during the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination.
TRUMP IS WAY AHEAD THO BRO!!
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Chuck Todd: Brokered Convention 'More Likely Than Not'
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=6a72d3d8-f0fb-4759-a69f-0a6bf37b9052&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: Chuck Todd: Brokered Convention 'More Likely Than Not' (AP)
By Sandy Fitzgerald
Friday, 04 Mar 2016
It's "more likely than not" that there will be a brokered Republican convention this summer, NBC's Chuck Todd said Friday, considering the current numbers in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, and Ted Cruz's campaign is the best-prepared should that happen.
"You start looking at these numbers, it's such a precarious [situation]," Todd said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" program. "Look, there is a good path for [Donald] Trump if he wins both Florida and Ohio, but I don't see how he wins both."
Further, he said he thinks it's more likely that Trump will enter the convention with fewer than the 1,257 delegates he will need to secure the GOP nomination, and Cruz is best positioned to pick up debates should the convention end up being brokered, as his campaign is "arguably the best-run campaign tactically."
"They know how to get delegates," he said. "They are more prepared for a convention fight than any of the other campaigns because of the way they know how to pick off delegates and it's almost inevitable they end up second in delegates no matter what happens, which will make Cruz a crucial player in some form or another."
Trump is favored in Florida at this time over Sen. Marco Rubio in his own home state, but Todd pointed out to the show's panel that he didn't think "you understand how much money is about to go down there."
And with 11 days left before the Florida and Ohio primaries, there are still ways to slow Trump's march to the convention, said Todd.
"Ted Cruz is going to have a good weekend of delegates," he said. "It's very possible. But the problem is on Tuesday. Donald Trump is likely to win Mississippi and Michigan. Now, Michigan is going to be split."
And Cruz has been resilient, said Todd.
"Look at Super Tuesday, the week before it," he said. "It was all about Rubio versus Trump and quietly Cruz put a solid plan in Texas and boy, did he clean up delegates in Texas in a way that was very impressive."
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/Chuck-Todd-Brokered-Convention-More-Likely/2016/03/04/id/717417/#ixzz41ybhpVUx
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Delegate math: Rubio, Kasich wins key to stopping Trump
By Tal Kopan and Tom LoBianco, CNN
Mon March 7, 2016 | Video Source: CNN
Washington (CNN)—The magic number in the GOP primary is 848.
That's how many delegates Donald Trump needs to clinch the GOP presidential nomination.
It is also the number of delegates the other three candidates combined need to prevent him from clinching and to force a contested Republican convention.
It is quickly becoming clear that winning the nomination outright is largely out of the reach of any candidate not named Trump. While all are still mathematically viable, the climb is steep.
The best chance for any of them seems to be keeping Trump from clinching, creating a contested convention that would open up hope for other candidates.
But first, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich must win their home states to keep the cache of delegates out of Trump's hands. There are 99 winner-take-all delegates up for grabs in Florida and 66 in Ohio on March 15.
Based on CNN's delegate estimate after last weekend's primaries and caucuses, Trump needs to win about 54% of all the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who trails by fewer than 100 delegates, needs to win 60%. Rubio, more than 150 delegates behind Cruz, needs to win about 69%, and Kasich would need to win 77%.
For reference, Trump has won about 44% of the delegates thus far.
"What is possible is that no one has 1,237 delegates," Rubio said on "Fox and Friends" on Friday. "If you look at it now, even Donald Trump is going to have a tough time at this point getting the 1,237 delegates. ... I do not support a backroom deal at the convention, either. ... But I think this will all eventually work out and there will be a consolidation behind someone not named Donald Trump, and I'm telling you, that is going to be me."
Kasich meanwhile is focused on a Rust Belt strategy, where he is looking to drive up his numbers beginning with his home state of Ohio.
Ohio is critical for Kasich, as it is one of the first winner-take-all contests of the cycle. But the Kasich team has focused most of its firepower on Michigan, which votes Tuesday, for now -- spending roughly $850,000 on-air there, between the campaign and its affiliated super PAC, according to CMAG/Kantar Media. That's almost double the $440,000 Trump has spent on-air.
In Florida, as of Friday, Rubio's Conservative Solutions PAC had spent almost $5.3 million on-air in his home state. American Future Fund, which has featured the testimonials of alleged victims of Trump University, is spending close to $2 million there. And the Club for Growth, one of the first conservative groups to blast Trump, is spending a little more than $1 million there.
Trump has bought up close to $1 million on media in Florida, while Our Principles PAC -- the much-touted group packed with Jeb Bush staffers and establishment Republicans -- has bought up a little more than $440,000 on-air in Florida so far.
For his part, Cruz is still pitching himself as a nomination winner outright, highlighting that he is the closest in the delegate count to Trump.
"In my view, a brokered convention ain't going to happen, and if the Washington deal-makers tried to steal the nomination from the people, I think it would be a disaster," Cruz told reporters Friday. "We've got to win this nomination. One-thousand, two-hundred and thirty-seven delegates is what it takes to be the Republican nominee."
Putnam cautions that the math can be misleading, however. He said at this point in 2012, Mitt Romney seemed to be in a similar position to Trump, with an uphill climb to the magic number of delegates. But, he added, candidates drop out and the game rapidly changes.
Of course, Romney and Trump are different stories.
"This isn't a conventional cycle, but what we tend to see is a war of attrition," Putnam said. "(Traditionally) it's not about getting to a magic number, it's the race ending as a function of the last viable candidate dropping out. But that's where 2016 is different, there's a significant motivation from some within the Republican Party to prevent Trump from getting the nomination."
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/05/politics/delegate-math-rubio-kasich-trump-cruz/index.html
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"What is possible is that no one has 1,237 delegates," Rubio said on "Fox and Friends" on Friday. "If you look at it now, even Donald Trump is going to have a tough time at this point getting the 1,237 delegates. ... I do not support a backroom deal at the convention, either. ... But I think this will all eventually work out and there will be a consolidation behind someone not named Donald Trump, and I'm telling you, that is going to be me."
How does he figure that?
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How does he figure that?
Here is what he is probably thinking:
1. If it goes to the floor, the delegates from each state are obligated to vote for the primary/caucus winner in the first round of voting.
2. If the "winner" of that vote does not get more than 50 percent, then the delegates can vote for whomever they want on subsequent votes.
3. Trump will likely not get more than 50 percent.
4. Because Rubio is the "establishment" favorite, he is the likely recipient of most of the majority after the first round of voting.
This all assumes nobody gets to 1237 before the convention.
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Was talking to someone much smarter than me about this stuff, and he said something like 100 of the delegates are not bound, so they can vote for whomever they want in round 1.
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A more detailed, better explanation:
Brokered Convention Likely Means Trump Goes Third Party
by Jon Fleischman
7 Mar 2016
If you are Donald J. Trump, you are not very excited about the idea of a “brokered convention.” Aside from falling short of the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination for president outright, the way delegates are chosen, and the nomination process itself, are not ideal for someone running an outsider assault on the party.
A brokered convention is actually less far-fetched after the impressive surge lately by Senator Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) over the past week. So it is worth sharing some basic insights on how such an event would be politically structured, so that you can make your own political calculations about what might happen at such an event – which would be an epic, political maelstrom.
On the first ballot at the convention, just over 85% of the 2,472 delegates will be bound to vote for the candidate to whom they are individually pledged. Some delegates are pledged for more than one ballot, but not most. Just under 15% of the delegates – 165 of the 168 RNC committee members – are “superdelegates.” Yes, we have them too – though far fewer than the Democrats. Around 7% of the RNC convention floor will be made up of superdelegates – i.e. people who are automatically delegates separate from the election process. The Democrats will have 717 of them – about 15% of their 4,678 total delegate count. In addition, there will be around 180 delegates from a handful of state and territories that send their delegates “unbound” and who go to the convention as free agents.
After that first ballot, most of the delegates will likewise be free to vote for whomever they choose. Now before you start thinking that Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Cruz or Ohio Gov. John Kasich would “control” their delegates, understand that this is likely not the case.
Just over 10% of the states have party rules that provide for candidates to choose their own actual delegates – 259 delegates, to be precise (and 169 of those are from one state, California).
However the vast majority (close to 90%) of the delegates are actually chosen through internal party elections of one sort or another. Some are chosen at conventions, some at caucuses. In some states individuals run for delegate, by name, on the ballot. These folks are then “bound” to a candidate, as I outlined above.
Presumably candidate-chosen delegates will have a much higher likelihood of being loyal to their candidate and also more likely to let their candidate “broker” or “throw” their votes as part of a negotiated deal. But again, that’s a small percentage of the total delegate pool.
As you can see from this process, the convention will have a lot of delegates where the actual person who is voting was able to win election to the convention through their local party process. Maybe they will be a supporter of the candidate to whom they are pledged after they are no longer bound, but maybe not. Either way, they are likely to be much more independent, and not “throwable” by candidate A to candidate B.
So suddenly you have to wonder: who will be the influencers at a brokered convention?
And the answer is: it will be a madhouse. The lists of influencers will certainly include the candidates, past and present. But it will also include party luminaries, governors, senators, members of Congress, state legislators, party leaders, interest group leaders, celebrities, media personalities, major donors and more.
And while it might be a bit unseemly to discuss openly, think about what is being brokered behind closed doors. Of course the presidential and vice presidential nominees – but who can say whether discussions will take place about commitments on cabinet secretary picks, Supreme Court nominations, ambassadorships and the thousands of patronage positions in government that are available to a president. Maybe as a delegate you have a son or daughter you want to get into the Naval Academy or West Point?
Lastly, but not to be overlooked, is the ability of party insiders to monkey around with the rules and credentialing of the convention itself. The RNC Rules Committee will meet a week before the convention – as “insider” a group as you get. They make recommendations to the full RNC, who in turn make recommendations to the RNC Convention Rules Committee, made up of two members per delegation, chosen by a vote of each delegation. These rules are then put up for adoption by the full convention. But there is also a Convention Credentials Committee, which actually gets to decide who is on the initial roll of the convention itself, chosen by delegations as well. If it seems confusing, that’s because it is.
Look for outsiders to the party process to have a diminished role. As I said from the outset: Donald Trump will be severely disadvantaged going into this sort of thing, and would undoubtedly be leveraging a potential third-party bid to press his claim to the nomination if it came to that.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/07/brokered-convention-likely-means-trump-goes-third-party/
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The GOP denying a delegate leading Trump will be one of the biggest mistakes they ever make.
He will light up Hillary like a Xmas tree on stage and bring in millions of new voters.
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If he loses Florida, I hope the establishment troublemakers (and anyone else backing this guy) finally get the message.
Two words: Rubio - Schumer
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IF IF IF trump wins florida AND Ohio, it's over.
Rubio will drop out, kasich will drop out. Does anyone think Cruz is getting 51% of the votes in NY or Cali? ;)
Face it, you makeshift conservatives sat idly and said "i like some of trumps ideas!" for 9 months as if you were pointing out you loved some of hitler's ideas, such as him being a vegetarian, ignoring all of the other bad bad shit.
Now, it's 9 months later, and Trump has birthed chaos upon the nomination process, and you are cupping your mouths in feigned shock and disbelief. You let this festering lesion grow for almost a year, and now you're shocked a stoned Dr Ben couldn't remove it with parables of Popeyes robberies.
Trump is your fault. (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Repeatsign.svg/100px-Repeatsign.svg.png)
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Still on track for a brokered convention.
Current delegate count:
Trump - 461
Cruz - 360
Rubio - 154
Kasich - 54
Carson - 8
Bush - 4
Fiorina - 1
Huckabee - 1
Paul - 1
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/republican
Popular vote results since Super Tuesday:
983,622 = Votes for Trump
1,541,001 = Votes for other candidates
Total:
4,249,489 = Votes for Trump
7,809,337 = Votes for other candidates
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It's only still on track of you don't factor in that currently Trump is the front runner in FL, OH, IL and NC on Tuesday. By. Wednesday morning this could all be a foregone conclusion.
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It's only still on track of you don't factor in that currently Trump is the front runner in FL, OH, IL and NC on Tuesday. By. Wednesday morning this could all be a foregone conclusion.
Florida, Ohio, and Illinois are a combined 234 delegates (99, 66, and 69). Winning those three would be huge for Trump, but still will not push him over 1237. NC has 72 proportional delegates.
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Florida, Ohio, and Illinois are a combined 234 delegates (99, 66, and 69). Winning those three would be huge for Trump, but still will not push him over 1237. NC has 72 proportional delegates.
He'll be at 700 out of 1237... with 20 states to go. And many of them are liberal Cali, NY, etc. He's doing well and it's in the south where cruz and rubio should be doing well.
Once trump gets on his "home turf", these votes are going to come much easier.
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He'll be at 700 out of 1237... with 20 states to go. And many of them are liberal Cali, NY, etc. He's doing well and it's in the south where cruz and rubio should be doing well.
Once trump gets on his "home turf", these votes are going to come much easier.
X2
Pennsylvania, Jersey, New York...
New York results will be ridiculous.
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Plus Connecticut, Rhode Island, Arizona and California.
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X2
Pennsylvania, Jersey, New York...
New York results will be ridiculous.
It's the same people that said Trump had no chance back in summer when he announced.
He'll have 1100 delegates and they'll still be crying he'll never reach 1270 or whatever.
Delusional.
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Plus Connecticut, Rhode Island, Arizona and California.
Oh yeah, the North East.
Trump vs. Cruz in that part of the country??
Fugitaboutit...The Don will win those by a mile.
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Oh yeah, the North East.
Trump vs. Cruz in that part of the country??
Fugitaboutit...The Don will win those by a mile.
this is what is so mind-boggling about trump's rise. He's up by 100 or 150 delegates... and he's been playing "away games".
The ultra-liberal stretch of the states are coming up now... lots of delegates, lots of states, high population NY and Cali, etc.
THAT Is why everyone is getting concerned about Bernie too - he's not too far behind hilary - but she's winning mostly republican states. in super liberal states, bernie may clean up.
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Rep. Charlie Dent: Kasich Will Win Ohio and Pennsylvania
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=dee768c0-b504-49a8-bf08-92e25cb0411c&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: Rep. Charlie Dent: Kasich Will Win Ohio and Pennsylvania (Photo by Ty Wright/Getty Images)
By Todd Beamon | Thursday, 10 Mar 2016
John Kasich will win primaries in Ohio and Pennsylvania — "and that means the campaign will go to the convention, and of course that will be messy," Rep. Charlie Dent told Newsmax TV on Thursday.
"We're not leaving anything to chance," the Pennsylvania Republican, who backs the Ohio governor, told "Newsmax Prime" host J.D. Hayworth. "I know the governor is barnstorming his home state."
Ohio holds its primary on Tuesday, while Keystone State residents will cast their votes on April 26.
"The momentum is moving in his direction," Dent told Hayworth. "He's a popular governor, he has cut taxes, he took a $8 billion budget deficit and turned it into a surplus, a lot of job creation. A very good story in Ohio.
"His tone is right. He speaks in measured tones — and he's been able to stay a little bit above the fray.
"We've seen a lot of pretty pathetic campaigning, in my view, going on in this presidential race," he said, "but Gov. Kasich's been able to maintain some dignity in the process."
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsmax-Tv/john-kasich-ohio-pennsylvania-primary/2016/03/10/id/718542/#ixzz42YGoPzaz
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Listened to the comments last night from Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump on a brokered convention. Kasich and Rubio have no problem with it, because that is the only way they can win at this point. Cruz hates it because he knows he has zero shot to win a floor vote. Trump thinks the person with most delegates should be the nominee, and he is on pace to have the most delegates.
They are all full of crap. Political opportunists. Business as usual.
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He must have run some numbers and realized he has a chance during a floor vote. They are so full of it.
Cruz Changes Tune on Delegates Before Tuesday's Vital Contests
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=acb95c48-bd12-4f12-adb0-9841d5edd84b&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: Cruz Changes Tune on Delegates Before Tuesday's Vital Contests
Sunday, 13 Mar 2016
Maybe it wouldn't cause a "manifest uprising" after all to let party insiders have a crack at picking the Republican presidential nominee.
A week after saying that it would be "illegitimate" and "wrong" for Washington insiders at the Republican National Convention to nominate a candidate against the wishes of most voters, Ted Cruz said Sunday it would actually be fine if the convention chose between him and front-runner Donald Trump as long neither had achieved the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination automatically.
"If Donald and I both go into the convention and we’ve both got a big chunk of delegates but both of us are shy of 1,237, then the delegates will decide," the Texas senator told ABC's "This Week With George Stephanopoulos." "That’s how the process works and that’s allowing democracy to operate."
Cruz's comments came days before a string of primary elections on March 15 that could solidify the look of the volatile 2016 Republican race. Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and the Northern Mariana Islands will hold winner-takes-all contests offering a total of 243 delegates, while North Carolina and Missouri offer a total of 124 delegates doled out proportionally.
Cruz, second to Trump in delegates pledged to him through caucus and primary results, said he would "welcome" supporters of Marco Rubio and John Kasich who want to switch allegiances. So far, Cruz said, he's the candidate who has most often bested Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul he portrayed as "a disaster for Republicans, for conservatives."
"Neither one of them have any possibility of beating Donald Trump," Cruz said of his rivals. "If you don’t want to see Donald Trump as the nominee, if you don’t want to see Hillary Clinton as the president, then come join us."
Cruz had scoffed as recently as March 6 at the thought of "a bunch of Washington deal-makers and lobbyists who want to parachute in their preferred candidate because they don't like what the voters are doing." Yet he seemed to soften ahead of Tuesday's contests in which, for the first time, all delegates in a given state will pledge to support that state's winner rather than splitting up to reflect vote share.
The new structure would allow Trump, or one of his challengers, to collect delegates more quickly and potentially achieve an insurmountable advantage before the convention in July.
Others, including 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, had suggested that Trump could lose the nomination even if he entered the convention with a plurality of delegates pledged to him. Delegates need not stay pledged to a candidate in subsequent votes if no one wins the first vote with a majority.
On Friday, Rubio, a Florida senator, said his supporters in Ohio should vote for Kasich, who is the state's governor, as a way to stop Trump—a strategy that could help deny Trump an outright majority. Kasich didn't reciprocate by suggesting his supporters should vote for Rubio in Florida, where the senator polls behind Trump despite his home-state advantage.
"I'm going to win in Ohio," Kasich said Sunday on the same program. "I believe there is a good chance I could into the convention with the most amount of delegates."
The latest polls show Kasich may be getting a home-state advantage over Trump. On Sunday, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll should the governor leading Trump by 6 percentage points, 39 percent to 33 percent, in the Buckeye State, outside the margin of error.
That trend hasn't gone unnoticed by the New Yorker, who on Saturday called the former congressman "a baby." In a series of tweets on Sunday Trump slammed Kasich for his support of the North American Free Trade Agreement, backing of the Common Core educational initiative, and for only watching the Golf Channel.
While Cruz said convention delegates could choose between candidates "who are neck-in-neck," he repeated it "would be an absolute disaster" if "there’s a deadlock and the Washington deal-makers come in and pick their favorite candidate who wasn’t even part of the mix."
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/ted-cruz-brokered-convention/2016/03/13/id/718873/#ixzz42uUxXmSv
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He must have run some numbers and realized he has a chance during a floor vote. They are so full of it.
you need to stop attacking republicans.
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Good discussion about a brokered convention.
What happens to delegates won by Rubio, other ex-candidates?
Published March 16, 2016
FoxNews.com
With Marco Rubio dropping out of the Republican presidential race Tuesday, the Florida senator leaves a large cache of delegates behind. So what happens to them, and the delegates of other former candidates, at the convention in Cleveland?
The short answer is: It varies from state to state, but the Republican Party leaves enough wiggle room that the delegates of former candidates could end up being a factor in July.
Rubio, in suspending his campaign after his home-state Florida loss, leaves 169 delegates behind. Ben Carson accrued eight delegates before he dropped out of the race, while Jeb Bush picked up four. Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul each picked up one in Iowa.
And if either Ted Cruz or John Kasich drop out in the weeks ahead -- and Donald Trump still has not clinched the nomination with the necessary 1,237 delegates -- additional zombie delegates could be in play in Cleveland.
And they could hold sway.
That's because in most states, delegates become "unbound" and are free to support other contenders as soon as their candidate withdraws.
They don't necessarily have to gravitate toward the front-runner at a contested convention, or, in the case of Rubio's delegates, the candidate the Florida senator may ultimately choose to endorse.
They would become essentially free agents, prizes to be wooed by the candidates duking it out in Cleveland.
However some states bind their delegates to the first ballot no matter what.
In Tennessee, delegates are bound for two rounds of voting, while in Iowa, Texas, Virginia, Montana, Nevada, Puerto Rico and Washington, candidates are bound for at least one round of voting whether or not the candidate has withdrawn.
In South Carolina, delegates are bound to the candidate for the first ballot. However, if the winner is not nominated, they are bound to the candidate who finished second or third in the state.
The various state laws mean that while some of the delegates can already peel off to other candidates, many would have to wait until after a first ballot in order to be able to vote for another candidate still in the race.
It remains unclear whether front-runner Trump might be able to reach 1,237 delegates before the convention and avoid this drama. He currently has 661; Ted Cruz has 406; and John Kasich has 142.
Those, such as Kasich, who are banking on the prospect of a contested convention, where the delegates of ex-candidates and other factors could be in play, see a blueprint in past races dating back decades.
Since 1880, there have been eight contested GOP conventions and in five of those, the eventual winner did not go into the convention with a plurality of delegates.
In the 1976 Republican convention, it was the unbound delegates moving toward President Gerald Ford instead of Ronald Reagan that handed Ford the nomination that year. Ford held a slight lead going into the convention, but was shy of an outright majority.
In part by using the power of the White House, with promises of visits and patronage to woo over delegates, Ford won the nomination on the first ballot, by a slim 60 votes.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/16/what-happens-to-delegates-won-by-rubio-other-ex-candidates.html?intcmp=hpbt2
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What a degenerate party the gop has turned into.
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Ryan: Contested convention looking more likely
By Scott Wong - 03/17/16
(http://thehill.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_full/public/article_images/ryanpaul_031516gn2.jpg?itok=qSihiLnf)
Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said Thursday there’s no chance he’ll emerge as the GOP presidential nominee if no candidate captures enough delegates before this summer’s convention.
For the first time, however, Ryan acknowledged the increasing likelihood that the GOP nominee will be decided in Cleveland at what’s known as a contested or open convention.
Donald Trump is the clear GOP front-runner, but it’s unclear if he can secure the necessary 1,237 delegates before the July nominating convention.
“Nothing has changed other than the perception that this is more likely to be an open convention than we thought before,” Ryan, the ceremonial chairman of the convention, told reporters. “We’re getting our minds around the idea that this could very well become a reality, and that those of us who are involved in the convention need to respect that.”
The speaker’s comments Thursday suggest party leaders are beginning to prepare for a floor fight at the convention at Quicken Loans Arena in downtown Cleveland.
When The Hill asked him in January about a possible contested convention, Ryan dismissed the idea.
“I think it’s ridiculous to talk about it,” he said at the GOP retreat in Baltimore.
But now, as convention chairman, Ryan said he’ll need to “bone up” on not only his ceremonial duties, but also on the party rules governing what’s expected to be a raucous, unpredictable convention.
Ryan, Mitt Romney’s 2012 vice presidential running mate, also attempted to end the rampant speculation that he might be nominated if voting in Cleveland goes to multiple ballots. His predecessor, former Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), suggested he’d back Ryan if no one has enough votes on the first ballot.
“It is not me. … I saw Boehner last night and I told him to knock it off,” Ryan said, recounting a conversation at an Ireland event. “I used slightly different words. I used his own words that he used against us when he told us to knock things off.
“It’s not going to be me. It should be someone running for president. … Let’s just put this thing to rest and move on.”
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/273417-ryan-contested-convention-looking-more-likely
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Paul Ryan said the exact same thing about the speaker job. and the veep running mate last time.
he wants the nomination with all his little heart, don't doubt that.
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Still on track for a brokered convention.
Current delegate count:
Trump - 461
Cruz - 360
Rubio - 154
Kasich - 54
Carson - 8
Bush - 4
Fiorina - 1
Huckabee - 1
Paul - 1
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/republican
Popular vote results since Super Tuesday:
983,622 = Votes for Trump
1,541,001 = Votes for other candidates
Total:
4,249,489 = Votes for Trump
7,809,337 = Votes for other candidates
Popular vote results for Florida, Ill, Ohio, NC, Mo, and DC and the totals to date:
Tuesday's results:
3,196,905 = Votes for Trump
4,499,938 = Votes for other candidates
Total:
7,446,394 = Votes for Trump
12,309,275 = Votes for other candidates
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It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
By HARRY ENTEN
MAR 16, 2016
You ever feel like you don’t know exactly how to interpret an election night? That’s how I feel about the Republican side of the aisle after Tuesday. Donald Trump won at least three of the five states that voted on Tuesday, including Florida. (We’re still waiting on a call in Missouri, but Trump leads.) Marco Rubio ended his campaign. John Kasich stayed alive by winning Ohio. Given that Trump likely won every state except for the home state of another candidate, it has to be considered a good night for him. And yet, the main question — are we going to a contested convention? — remains unanswered.
The good news for Trump is that he won the most delegates on Tuesday, and was able to make up for the 66 delegates he lost in Ohio by winning Illinois and likely Missouri, which could bring as many as 95 delegates, depending on how the district allocation shakes out.
Moreover, Trump performed strongly in all the states that voted Tuesday. He won 36 percent of the vote in Ohio, 39 percent in Illinois, 40 percent in North Carolina, 41 percent in Missouri and 46 percent in Florida. His average performance was 40.3 percent. That’s far above his average 34.6 percent that he had on March 1. Granted, the states that voted tonight were different than the states that voted two weeks ago, but there isn’t any sign that Trump’s support is falling. If anything, these results suggest it may be somewhat rising.
The bad news for Trump is pretty clear: even with a Missouri win, he would still have won only a little more than 47 percent of the delegates allocated so far. Moreover, he’ll need to win a little more than 54 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. That’s certainly possible given there are several winner-take-all states to come, and Trump may do well in big East Coast states such as New York and New Jersey. Trump is also in a good position in Arizona, a winner-take-all state that votes next Tuesday.
Still, there are plenty of ways the delegate math can go haywire for him. My own delegate estimate has Trump falling short of the 1,237 delegates he needs because he has done poorly in the west so far, and many of those states haven’t voted yet. It’s also possible that Kasich plays better than we might think among moderate voters in the remaining states to vote in New England and Mid-Atlantic.
Moreover, there are plenty of signs that Trump would have lost a majority of states that voted on Tuesday had Rubio not been in the race. I’m talking about Missouri and North Carolina, where Ted Cruz beat Trump in a one-on-one race in the exit polls. Trump may be rising, though he is still not getting close to a majority of the vote in most states. If the anti-Trump voters can find a better way to coordinate behind one candidate, they probably can beat Trump in a lot of upcoming contests.
When you put it all together, I think the result on Tuesday can best be defined as messy. Trump is likely to have a plurality of delegates after all the contests have finished up on June 7. But a majority? We still don’t know.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/
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Roger Stone Predicts GOP Will Create ‘New, Noxious’ Rules at Convention to Steal Nomination from Donald Trump
by KATIE MCHUGH
21 Mar 2016
Veteran political strategist Roger Stone tells Breitbart News executive chairman and SiriusXM host Stephen K. Bannon that even if GOP frontrunner Donald Trump clinches the 1,237 delegates to win the nomination outright, the party will fight like wild to steal it from him by changing the the rules at the convention.
“In a number of states, the Republican chairman is essentially placing non-Trump people into Trump delegate slots,” Stone said on Breitbart News Daily. “Under the party rules, anyone can register to be a delegate. You don’t have to really be ‘a Trump supporter.’ While those delegates would be bound by the results of primaries or caucuses to vote for Trump on the first ballot, they are not bound on procedural matters like the rules.”
“So, the idea is to have a majority against Trump prior to the first ballot, which you could essentially lay the groundwork for the big steal, by passing as they did to Ron Paul three years ago, rules that are detrimental to Trump, or by unseating Trump delegates,” he said. “The rules committee could theoretically say, states that allowed Democrats and independents to vote without changing their registration to Republican — those delegates would be disallowed.”
Stone declared the GOP convention will be an all-out brawl between party insiders and Trump supporters.
“I think it’s going to be a barn burner. I used to think that if Trump got to 1,237 [delegates] that would be the ball game,” Stone said. “By the way, I think that’s still possible, but not definite. He’s got to get 57 percent of the 1,009 delegates still available going forward, of which 217 are in winner-take-all states.”
“I now believe that even if he gets to 1,237, they’re going to play games with the rules and the credentials if they have control of those committees,” he added. “Remember, those committees are made up by two members from each state, selected by the state’s party chairman. So you don’t know, in states where Trump swept the primary, that the party chairman is going to send copacetic people for Trump to the committees. In fact, it is unlikely.”
“You’re not going to know until you get there,” Stone continued. “The rules of the committee, the rules of the convention were only adopted for the previous convention and they expire prior to this convention.”
The rule used to disqualify Ron Paul from the first ballot, Rule 40-B, “will expire, and can either be renewed, replaced, revised, or completely repealed,” Stone said. “On the other hand, you may have new, noxious rules that may be detrimental to Trump. I can think of half a dozen that could be passed. But that’s where the real fight will be. The test vote will be on a rules or credentials matter, and then you’ll know who’s going to win on the first ballot.”
Stone warned earlier on Monday that Trump must beware of “Trojan horse” delegates that will knee-cap Trump by maneuvering to change the rules in the fourth quarter:
These hard-boiled pols know the nomination will be decided not on the first ballot, but in a series of procedural votes by the entire convention to adopt the rules of the convention as recommended by the Rules Committee and the seating of the delegates as recommended by the Credentials Committee. Those key committees are made up by two members from each state. The bosses have been quietly planting establishment regulars in these spots.
The Trump camp has been inattentive to this process. The party kingmakers may have the votes to knee-cap Trump in the rules and credentials committees, as they did Congressman Ron Paul in 2012.
The kingmakers have planned to steal the nod from Donald Trump.
Now they party insiders want to make sure they have a working majority on the floor for the passage of their “license to steal.” Republican state chairs are planting Trojan Horse delegates into slots won by Trump on the first ballot to vote with them on procedural votes to pass the Rules and Credentials Reports that will seal the “Big Steal.” This is going on in Texas, New York, Massachusetts, Michigan, Connecticut, North Dakota, and other states.
Though these “Trump” delegates will be bound by national and state rules to support Trump through the first ballot at the convention, they are free to vote against Trump’s interests on the adoption of Rules and the seating of delegates. It’s entirely plausible that a state could seat delegates pledged to support Donald Trump who have open affiliations with other candidates. In California, Cruz and Paulistas are signing up online via CA’s GOP website as Trump delegates.
[…]
Much in the way the RNC stacked the galleries with anti-Trump partisans in the last two debates, anti-Trump quislings are be planted in various delegations that will be free to betray Trump on procedural matters and subsequent ballots.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/21/roger-stone-predicts-gop-will-create-new-noxious-rules-at-convention-to-steal-nomination-from-donald-trump/
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Priebus on convention: 'The minority of delegates doesn't rule for the majority'
By Eric Bradner, CNN
Sun March 20, 2016 | Video Source: CNN
Washington (CNN)The Republican National Committee chairman wouldn't back Donald Trump's argument that the candidates with the most delegates headed into the party's convention in Cleveland should automatically win the nomination.
Reince Priebus told CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union" Sunday that if no candidate wins the 1,237 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination before the convention, it's up to GOP delegates to decide how to go forward.
"This is a delegate-driven process. This is the first time in a long time people actually cared about delegate count, but delegates matter," Priebus said. "The minority of delegates doesn't rule for the majority."
He pointed out that he was named Republican chairman on the seventh ballot -- and though he led the entire race, "no one gave it to me on the second or third ballot. In fact, I had to fight and fight and fight, and eventually I got the majority. That's how it works."
"No one's disenfranchised. In fact, they're empowered by the delegates they receive," he said.
Priebus complained that "there's a lot of misinformation" about Republican rules -- including one from 2012 that required candidates to have a majority of delegates from at least eight states in order to be nominated on the floor.
He said those 2012 rules don't necessarily carry over to 2016 -- when the delegates will elect a new rules committee to write its convention rules.
"Are you trying to say that the rules committee that was made up of Romney delegates should enforce the rules for the 2016 convention, which will largely be made up of Trump/Cruz delegates?" Priebus said.
Trump predicted on ABC's "This Week" Sunday that he will top 1,237 delegates before the convention in Cleveland.
"I think we will get over that number. There's tremendous spirit about make America great again," he said.
But he said a wide Republican field has made it tough to reach that mark, and "if I'm a few short and I have, you know, 1,200 or if I have 1,100 and somebody else is at 300 or 400 or 500, which is very likely going to be the case," he should be the nominee.
Trump said he'd tell his supporters not to riot if he didn't win the nomination, but that his backers are "fervent."
"All I can say is this, I don't know what's going to happen," Trump said. "But I will say this, you're going to have a lot of very unhappy people. And I think, frankly, for the Republicans to disenfranchise all those people because if that happens, they're not voting and the Republicans lose."
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/20/politics/reince-priebus-2016-convention-rules/index.html
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Priebus on convention: 'The minority of delegates doesn't rule for the majority'
it'll be so entertaining when trump is 2 votes short and they don't give it to him lol!
these final few states are going to mean so much. Still 17 or 20 left?
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Perhaps he thinks he has a shot at the nomination at a contested convention? Saw a Cruz interview yesterday and he (in my view) admitted Rubio was on his VP short list.
Exclusive: Marco Rubio rejected 'unity ticket' with Ted Cruz
Utah Sen. Mike Lee sought to arrange a shotgun wedding of his two Senate colleagues, but Rubio wasn't interested.
By ALEX ISENSTADT
03/21/16
(http://static2.politico.com/dims4/default/abfe428/2147483647/resize/1160x%3E/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F3b%2F39%2F9518b0af4064acb9a540ffca57b2%2F160315-marco-rubio-dropout-1-gty-1160.jpg)
Ted Cruz’s campaign has been exploring the possibility of forming a unity ticket with ex-rival Marco Rubio — going so far as to conduct polling looking into how the two would perform in upcoming primary states.
The motivation, hashed out in conversations among Cruz’s top aides and donors: to find a way to halt Donald Trump’s march to the Republican nomination.
It’s unclear whether Cruz’s campaign brass views a partnership with Rubio as realistic or quixotic. In Rubio’s orbit, according to three sources, it’s seen as an outright nonstarter — with Rubio telling his team he isn’t interested.
Yet in recent weeks, within Cruz’s camp, talk of a joint ticket has run rampant. Utah Republican Mike Lee, one of two senators to endorse Cruz, has emerged as an outspoken supporter of a unity ticket — and as a potential broker. The freshman, according to several sources briefed on the talks, has reached out repeatedly to Rubio to gauge his interest, but has been rebuffed.
Shortly before Lee endorsed Cruz on March 10, Lee and his advisers discussed the possibility of organizing a meeting between the Utah senator and Rubio in Florida, just days before the state’s primary, according to two sources. The meeting, though, never happened.
A Lee spokesman, Conn Carroll, declined to comment for this story. So, too, did spokespersons for Cruz and Rubio.
But the Cruz camp’s apparent fascination with the idea of joining forces with Rubio didn’t end with Lee’s efforts.
In recent days, Cruz’s team has begun to investigate how the two would fare on a prospective ticket. Over the past week, according to a person familiar with the Cruz team's internal deliberations, the campaign has conducted polling in forthcoming contests — including the one on Tuesday in Utah — in which questions are posed about the two running side-by-side.
The deliberations come at a time of rising anxiety among Republican leaders and donors about Trump, who many fear is becoming unstoppable. The real estate mogul holds a 256-delegate lead and is seen as the favorite in a number of upcoming primary states, including New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania — contests that could push Trump toward the 1,237 delegate number he needs to secure the Republican nomination.
At the very least, Cruz’s team is hoping for a Rubio endorsement. The two have been in touch since Rubio dropped out last week, and those close to he Florida senator say he’s open to endorsing his Texas colleague — especially if he believes there’s a pathway for Cruz to defeat Trump.
Yet some have pushed for more. Among the Cruz supporters who have been vocal about forging an alliance has been Doug Deason, son of billionaire megadonor Darwin Deason, who has deep connections in the Charles and David Koch fundraising network.
On March 2, the day after Super Tuesday, the younger Deason reached out to Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe. Rubio had suffered a rash of defeats the night before, and Deason told Roe that it would make sense to reach out to the Florida senator’s team. By that time, Deason had been talking to a number of major Rubio donors, but now wanted to go to the official campaign to pitch the unity-ticket idea.
In an interview, Deason recalled telling Roe he wanted to call Marc Short, a senior Rubio adviser and former operative for the Koch-founded Freedom Partners political operation. After Roe didn’t object, Deason connected with Short and gave him his pitch.
Short’s response, Deason said, was unequivocal: Rubio wasn’t interested. (Short didn’t respond to a request for comment.)
“Rubio was too pompous to act on it. He believed his own internal polls and there was no swaying him away from staying in the race through the Florida primary,” Deason said. “If he had signed on before the first Super Tuesday, Cruz would have won all of the Texas votes and a lot more delegates. They may have very well won Florida.”
Appearing on Fox News after this story was published on Monday evening, Cruz was pressed on his campaign’s decision to look into a unity ticket and to poll its prospects. He said that he and Rubio haven’t spoken about it, nor had their respective staffs.
Cruz declined, however, to rule out a unity ticket.
“I think any Republican would naturally have Marco on their short list and you would look seriously to him as a vice presidential choice,” he said.
Erick Erickson, a vocal Trump critic who has floated the idea of a Cruz-Rubio alliance and last week organized a call by prominent conservative activists for a Republican “unity ticket,” said he thought it would be “very effective in stopping Trump.”
“I wish they would do it because it would provide counterprogramming to the Donald Trump show,” he said in an interview.
But Rubio’s camp is uniformly dismissive of the idea. “Different combinations have been floating out there for a little while — who could partner up with whom," said Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz, a Rubio endorser. "But I didn’t take it too seriously.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/exclusive-marco-rubio-rejected-unity-ticket-with-ted-cruz-221066#ixzz43eZNWnMO
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Battle for Rubio's 'unbound' delegates heats up as campaigns look to convention
By Adam Shaw
Published March 24, 2016
FoxNews.com
The battle for Marco Rubio's delegates already is under way, as the remaining Republican presidential candidates compete for the dozens who -- in the case of a contested convention -- would be up for grabs even before the first vote in Cleveland.
Under the complex rules governing each state's primary, at least 80 of Rubio's 166 delegates will be unbound before the July convention, meaning free to vote for whomever they choose. Donald Trump still is trying to clinch the nomination outright by winning the necessary 1,237 delegates -- but if he doesn't, Rubio's delegate stash could be a deciding factor on the floor.
Campaigns are wasting no time vying for their support.
“The unbound ones we’re going after pretty strongly,” Barry Bennett, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, told FoxNews.com. “We aren’t going to waste resources on them, but if you’re 'wooable' we plan to woo.”
The former candidate's delegates might be tough for the front-runner to win over, though, particularly as Rubio himself describes Ted Cruz as the only true conservative left in the race.
“These delegates don’t look like Trump voters,” Rick Wilson, a GOP strategist and a Rubio supporter, told FoxNews.com. “These are activists, long-time members of the party, they’re a different flavor of voter.”
He said the delegates will probably trickle off to Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich or even an outside candidate, as opposed to Trump.
The rest of the Rubio delegates will be operating under different rules. Nineteen will be reassigned to other candidates, while the remainder would become unbound after either the first or second ballot, if there is a contested convention.
The unbound delegates are going to play a key role, Wilson said.
“The numbers are going to be very close and there’s going to be a lot of outreach from Cruz or Kasich or any potential outsider,” Wilson said.
For context, at the last contested convention in 1976, President Gerald Ford won the nomination over then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan by a skin-of-the-teeth 60 votes.
Rubio has not formally endorsed anyone yet, though he has made some positive comments toward Cruz, raising the likelihood that Rubio might back his fellow Cuban-American Senate colleague.
While an endorsement does not bind a candidate’s delegates to that choice, it would act as a powerful recommendation.
However, Trump’s campaign disagrees with the narrative of Rubio delegates ignoring Trump and going to either Kasich or Cruz.
“We have been pleasantly surprised with our conversations [with delegates] thus far and have secured commitments from some Rubio delegates and Bush delegates so we feel pretty good,” Bennett told FoxNews.com. “I know that’s contrary to the narrative but we feel good.”
Bennett also raised the possibility that delegates who line up behind Cruz are just backing him until the convention, at which point his support will evaporate as they line up behind a more moderate candidate.
"This is where I think Cruz is being taken for a ride," Bennett said. "The establishment is using him because they want to get to the second ballot, and then they'll pretend they've never heard of him."
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/03/24/battle-for-rubios-unbound-delegates-heats-up-as-campaigns-look-to-convention.html?intcmp=hpbt2
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Cruz may have to drop out of the race. THIS is how trump gets his delegates, I guess. Or this is how Kasich comes out of nowhere?
The National Enquirer is indeed a tabloid – and as such there are various grains of salt that should be applied when reviewing anything they present.
However, that said, they have been unfortunately accurate for more than a few presidential hopefuls: Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson and John Edwards to name a few of the more infamous examples.
Beyond the story itself there’s a few presenting elements which point to a high degree of confidence, and as a consequence ‘legal avoidance’, on the publishers’ part.
Firstly, they post pictures of the collective mistresses. NE would never legally “go there” if they did not hold a very reasonable certainty the outlined players were factually part of the story.
Secondly, there’s at least one face in the group that is easily identifiable.
When you accept the NE editorial/legal requirement for research and attributed comment prior to publication, you recognize there is more than a strong probability each of the outlined group (pictured) was contacted prior to publication; and one of those is very close to the Donald Trump campaign. Ergo, it’s entirely likely presidential candidate Donald Trump knew this story was coming out.
Which puts candidate Trump’s prior discussion and opinion of media libel in a strangely much larger, and more substantially prescient, aspect. 3-D political strategy not withstanding.
The National Enquirer has essentially baited the hook in a typical manner and one famously utilized by Andrew Breitbart.
So now they wait and see if, and how, the Cruz campaign responds. It is entirely possible the story could explode exponentially depending on the severity of any denials or admissions therein.
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Low information voter meltdown.
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Low information voter meltdown.
yeah, i remember posting Ann Coulter yelling about the Edwards affair... it was MONTHS until someone picked up on the story.
Dude, insulting me is easy. Facing this story is incredibly difficult. This is bad bad news. I hope it's a total lie.
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yeah, i remember posting Ann Coulter yelling about the Edwards affair... it was MONTHS until someone picked up on the story.
Dude, insulting me is easy. Facing this story is incredibly difficult. This is bad bad news. I hope it's a total lie.
Oh shut the heck up already. You are a flaming, anti-conservative liberal who relishes negative stories about conservatives. Even tabloid trash that liberal rags won't touch. About what we should expect from someone who believes in loony conspiracy theories.
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yeah, i remember posting Ann Coulter yelling about the Edwards affair... it was MONTHS until someone picked up on the story.
Dude, insulting me is easy. Facing this story is incredibly difficult. This is bad bad news. I hope it's a total lie.
No. This is not news at all.
I will say exactly like I said numerous times. I don't give a flying fuck what a person does in their personal lives. Whether it's getting a blow job or banging mistresses. It doesn't bother me at all.
What matters is how they do their job.
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In terms of politics - I think Cruz is done as a result of this story.
I don't think it affects the job he'd do, and he is still my #1 choice. But I'm sure he cannot win due to this story.
Obviously, trump is ten times the scumbag, bragging about banging married women.
But in 2016 american politics, I think this sinks Cruz. the story has been on facebook for weeks, the NE released it today with pics and details - if they follow their pattern, they wait for Cruz to deny it THEN they release all the pics, recordings, dates, times, and evidence. They WAITED for gifford and edwards to deny it - all parties involved did - and then they dropped their evidence. It kept the story big much longer that way.
dos equis, just tell us the story is false. Say it. This way, in a week, we can look at your post and wonder what you were smoking.
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Do you think it's a true story?
If so, why?
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Do you think it's a true story?
If so, why?
I admit, I worked in grocery for nearly a decade as I was in college. Age 16 to 27, summers and nights. I read a LOT of national enquirer in the breakroom because it was always there. I don't read it now, but I know their style, as I love and study media.
I've seen the affairs they talk about. They troll the guilty into denying it, and they don't give out NAMES (well, slightly blurred pics which the web has already unveiled) unless they KNOW they have this dude guilty.
And it makes sense. Trump threatening to "spill the beans"? Her erratic behavior/breakdown? The fact they've lived apart for a huge chunk of their marriage - he still lives apart from his family. The fact he's young, the fact he was just so chummy with that erratic crazy person Katrina. And, the fact that he's been able to so flawlessly jumble the truth with a straight face regarding that Ben Carson Iowa shit that he stepped in. He ignored videotape evidence and just blankly told his own version, obviously false.
the NE doesn't post Katrina's pic unless it happened. No way. And trump posted a wink last week with katrina's pic... she is outright crazy and deceptive, which means (historically, and I think we can all agree) she loves a sexual challenge (like a married man) and she likes to get powerful D all the time, and cruz is a powerful man. Crazy & hot girls have to bang the most important man in the room, don't they?
The affair is starting to get traction on the scrub websites now, moving up from the CTer sites. It'll be on the lib sites next. Im' literally sick to my stomach reading it - but the way DU and FR are frantically deleting it... hmmmm
And.... It's the Same Reporter that Broke the John Edwards Scandal
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Scott Walker predicts open GOP convention would nominate someone not currently running
JESSIE OPOIEN | The Capital Times | jopoien@madison.com | @jessieopie
Mar 24, 2016
(http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/host.madison.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/d/62/d62cb592-e4fb-5b05-811d-f2b3816b5c66/56f409e8294b2.image.jpg?resize=1200%2C806)
Associated Press
Gov. Scott Walker, who dropped out of the presidential race last year, hopes to turn around his low approval ratings in 2016.
If the Republican Party finds itself with an open convention in July, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker believes the nominee may not be Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or John Kasich.
"I think if it’s an open convention, it’s very likely it would be someone who’s not currently running," Walker told reporters Thursday. "I mean, who knows. The one thing I qualify — it’s like the qualifications you see on those ads you see for car dealerships. I think any of us who comment on this election have to qualify that almost every prediction’s been off, so it’s hard to predict anything."
The governor, who ended his own presidential campaign in September, has yet to endorse a candidate. He plans to decide whether to endorse within the next few days, he said.
Walker spoke to a few reporters in Madison after signing into law a bipartisan bill creating a dietetic internship program in the state's Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program.
"I think it might be one of the days where the weather trumps Trump," he joked, adding that that was probably "wishful thinking."
He declared a state of emergency on Tuesday as a precautionary measure for the winter storm blanketing the state with freezing rain and snow.
Candidates on both sides of the aisle are ramping up their presence in Wisconsin as the state's April 5 presidential primary approaches. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is set to tour Dane Manufacturing in the village of Dane on Thursday afternoon, with a rally in Janesville in the evening. He spoke Wednesday night at an event hosted by conservative radio host Charlie Sykes.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich held a town hall in Wauwatosa on Wednesday, and real estate mogul Donald Trump announced a rally in Janesville next week.
No Democratic rallies have been scheduled yet, but Chelsea Clinton, daughter of Hillary Clinton, is scheduled to campaign on behalf of the former Secretary of State in Milwaukee, Madison and Waukesha on Thursday.
Walker said he receives phone calls frequently from people involved in the Cruz and Kasich campaigns, but hasn't heard "a peep" from the Trump campaign.
"In fact, I don’t know, other than the candidate, what kind of infrastructure, if anything, they have here, which is similar to what I hear from others around the country," Walker said.
Asked whether he would anticipate putting extra law enforcement in place for a Trump visit, Walker said the candidate would be given the same assistance as any other visiting the state.
"I think at this point, we’re just appreciative that Wisconsin's relevant in both primaries, both in the Republican and Democrat side," Walker said. "So I think on behalf of the voters here, we appreciate any of the candidates, be it Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders or be it Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or John Kasich coming to the state, and we want to make sure not only they, but the people both coming to support them and those that may be opposed to them, are all safe and sound."
Walker said he has no plans to attend a presidential campaign event unless and until he makes an endorsement, which would likely happen later next week.
After exiting the presidential race, Walker called several times for the remaining Republican candidates to clear the field for a positive alternative to Trump.
Asked last month whether he would support Trump should he earn the GOP nomination, Walker noted that all of the Republican presidential candidates, including himself, signed a pledge months ago promising to back the party's eventual nominee.
In an interview with Sykes broadcast on Wednesday, Walker said the only Republican candidate in the race with a chance to win the nomination besides Trump is Cruz.
A Marquette University Law School poll released last month showed Trump leading among Wisconsin Republican voters with 30 percent. Twenty percent of GOP primary voters said they would support Rubio, who had not yet left the race. Nineteen percent would support Cruz and 8 percent would support Kasich, while 10 percent were undecided. A new poll is set to come out next week.
http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/scott-walker-predicts-open-gop-convention-would-nominate-someone-not/article_e3eea03d-8f97-57ed-90bc-e5f737001d52.html
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Louisiana Primary: Cruz Beat Trump in Delegates
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=ee0a995d-37b3-4090-bc09-c8807934bd0c&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: Louisiana Primary: Cruz Beat Trump in Delegates (Getty Images)
By Joe Crowe | Friday, 25 Mar 2016
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has won in the race for delegates in Louisiana, even though he lost the primary vote to Donald Trump in that state, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Cruz and Trump won 18 delegates each in Louisiana. Cruz could now gain up to 10 more delegates in the state.
Five delegates left in play by Marco Rubio's exit from the race are likely to side with Cruz, and five more delegates are unbound, which means they can vote for the candidate of their choice. They're also likely to join the Cruz camp, reports the Journal.
Cruz's campaign appears to be more successful than Trump at maneuvering within the delegate selection process, which differs from state to state. His supporters also won five out of six Louisiana positions on Republican National Convention Rules Committee.
Louisiana is the first state to name delegates for the three convention committees: Rules Committee, Credentials Committee, and the Party Platform. Cruz supporters won five of the six Louisiana slots, and the sixth is not committed to a candidate.
Those delegates will help write the convention rules and, in the end, choose the GOP nominee.
If Trump fails to reach the 1,237-delegate number outright, those committees could block Trump from winning enough to get the nomination.
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/louisiana-primary-cruz-beat-trump/2016/03/25/id/720861/#ixzz43wJ9wRVh
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If history is a guide, the delegate leader (with less than a majority) heading into the convention will not be the nominee.
A History of Contested Political Conventions
Written by: David Simmons | March 27th, 2016
(Guest commentary by David Simmons)
As a presidential historical junkie I’m following this year’s GOP nominating process with many emotions including fascination and discouragement. We appear to be watching history in the making. One possible outcome of this year’s GOP primaries and caucuses is a contested nominating convention where no candidate has enough delegate votes going into the convention to secure a first ballot nomination. Here’s a quick history you may all enjoy about contested conventions. For this purpose, I’m defining a contested convention as requiring more than one ballot to select a nominee.
Contested nominating conventions are unusual, but not uncommon for either of the major parties. Since the founding of both political parties (1832 for the Democratic Party, and 1856 for the Republican Party, or GOP) a total of 90 nominating conventions have been held. Of these 90 conventions, 26 – or nearly 30% have been contested conventions. The Democrats have had 16 contested conventions out of 48, and the GOP has had 10 out of 42 conventions. They seem rare to us because the last two contested conventions for either party was 1952 for the Democrats, and 1948 for the Republicans. In the modern political era where a large majority of delegates for each party is chosen through primaries and caucuses, a contested convention has not occurred. (In 1976 neither Gerald Ford, the incumbent president nor Ronald Reagan had enough committed delegates to claim a majority heading into the GOP convention; however Ford prevailed prior to the first ballot in securing 52% of the delegate (votes).
When a contested convention does occur, the candidate with the highest number of delegates after the first ballot has only won a minority of times. For the Democrats, the leading candidate after the first ballot secured the nomination 7 out of 16 times. For the Republicans, the leading candidate only secured the nomination 3 out of 10 times.
When a candidate is ultimately selected in a contested convention, it doesn’t appear to be fatal for the party’s nominee. For the Democrats in 6 out of 16 contested conventions the eventual nominee has won the presidency. For the Republicans the odds have been even better – their candidate has won the general election 5 out of 10 times. Interestingly, in only 3 out of 26 contested conventions has the leading candidate for either party after the first ballot eventually secured the presidency – Buchanan in 1856, Cleveland in 1884, and FDR in 1932. In the other 7 occasions where the contested nominee has won the general election, he was not the leading candidate in the first round of balloting.
Some very strong presidents have come out of contested conventions. These include Abraham Lincoln (1860), FDR (1932), Woodrow Wilson (1912), and James Polk (1844). They have also resulted in some weak presidents – Franklin Pierce (1852), James Buchanan (1856), and Warren G. Harding (1920), but in whole the contested conventions appear to have strengthened the party rather than destroying it.
Most of the contested conventions were decided after a handful of ballots, but a few went on for many rounds. Perhaps the most famous, and certainly the most divisive for the country occurred in 1860 when the Democrats failed to select a nominee during their first convention held in Charleston, S.C. Prior to the first ballot most of the delegates from southern states walked out in protest of the party platform. The remaining delegates went through 56 rounds of voting without selecting a nominee. A later convention that summer held in Baltimore without the southern delegates nominated Sen. Stephen Douglas. The protesting delegates held their own convention later in Baltimore and selected John Breckenridge as their presidential nominee. The honor for highest number of ballots still belongs to the 1924 Democratic Convention where John W. Davis was selected on the 103rd ballot.
Another famous but not contested convention, based on my definition of multiple ballots, was held in 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt had the largest number of committed delegates and landslide primary victories over the incumbent president (and his handpicked successor), William Howard Taft. Roosevelt had won primaries in 9 out of 12 states – eight by wide margins, and arrived at the convention with strong support. However, 36 states did not hold primaries and selected delegates in state conventions. A fight broke out during the certification of delegates with Roosevelt claiming fraud. When the anti-Roosevelt delegates were ultimately seated many of the Roosevelt delegates abstained from voting out of protest and Taft was selected on the first ballot. In retaliation California governor Hiram Johnson quickly organized the Progressive Party’s convention several weeks later that nominated Roosevelt as their nominee. The Democrats had their own contested election in 1912 with 46 ballots required before Woodrow Wilson was selected as the nominee. In the general election Roosevelt came in second to Wilson with 27% of the popular vote and 88 electoral votes, the highest number for a third political party since before the Civil War. Taft, the incumbent president, finished third with 23% of the popular vote and 8 electoral votes. Interestingly, the only two states Taft carried were Vermont and Utah.
My favorite contested convention was held by the GOP in 1880. James Garfield, who started out the convention as a nominator for the incumbent president Rutherford B. Hayes, ended up as the party nominee after 36 ballots. He had no interest in even running for president before the convention became completely deadlocked. If fact, Garfield only had 1 vote headed into the 34th ballot. Former president U.S. Grant had the largest number of delegates on every ballot until the 36th when Garfield won a majority. As part of a bargain, Chester Arthur from NY was selected as the VP nominee. Arthur had never held political office but was one of the leaders of the NY political machine who were behind Grant. Garfield got Arthur to break from his boss, Sen. Roscoe Conkling, and accept the the VP nomination. Less than a year later, of course, Arthur became president after the assassination of Garfield.
In all of my own reading of U.S. political history, I can’t come close to finding another candidate quite like Trump. He may well spell the end of the GOP as we know it today. But both major political parties have proven themselves to be amazing resilient and have reinvented themselves multiple times. It will be fascinating, if not utterly discouraging, to watch how this ultimately unfolds.
http://leavittpartners.com/2016/03/a-history-of-contested-political-conventions/
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Fact check: Kasich barred by convention rule?
Robert Farley, FactCheck.org
March 31, 2016
Ted Cruz has repeatedly said that by rule only he and Donald Trump will be eligible to be on the ballot for consideration at a contested convention. Not necessarily.
The rule cited by Cruz — which requires that a candidate win a majority of delegates in at least eight states — was added as a temporary measure in 2012. Delegates for the 2016 convention could amend that rule, or waive it entirely.
Cruz has repeatedly cited the rule to label Ohio Gov. John Kasich a spoiler. Cruz says that by rule Kasich’s name cannot be placed in nomination and voted on at the Republican convention in July.
If Kasich fails to win eight states — a likely scenario — then that’s true under the rule as it stands today. But experts told us that rule could be amended. In recent conventions prior to 2012, the threshold was a plurality of delegates in five states. It had been three states prior to that, and in elections prior to the 1960s, there was no rule like that at all.
The issue of “Rule 40" has taken on heightened interest and scrutiny as a contested convention remains a possibility. Only Trump and Cruz have a mathematical chance at this point of winning a majority of delegates needed to secure the nomination on a first ballot. Kasich, who has won only his home state of Ohio, has pinned his presidential hopes on none of the candidates reaching the majority threshold, and then making his case at a contested convention.
Cruz has repeatedly argued in the last week, however, that Kasich would be precluded from nomination, by rule.
Cruz is referring to Rule 40 (b), which was adopted by the 2012 Republican National Convention. It required presidential candidates to have won a majority of delegates in at least eight states in order to be considered for nomination at the convention. The rule was proposed by supporters of Mitt Romney to block Ron Paul supporters from placing Paul’s name in nomination at the convention.
Trump is the only one to have reached that eight-state threshold so far. Cruz currently does not meet the benchmark, but he is well-positioned to do so by the convention, Josh Putnam, a lecturer at the University of Georgia who tracks delegate rules at the blog FrontloadingHQ, told us in a phone interview. It appears unlikely that Kasich will reach the eight-state threshold.
At a CNN town hall on March 29, Cruz claimed that “it’s against the rules for John Kasich to be on the ballot” and that “the only two names on the ballot are going to be Donald Trump and me. On the rules, those are the only two people that can be voted on.”
In an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News on March 28, Cruz also asserted (at the 7:32 mark) that “under the rules, there will be only two names on the ballot, Donald Trump’s and mine.”
Kasich’s campaign disagrees. In a conference call on March 29, the Kasich team said it did not see the 2012 rule as a major obstacle, according to a report from National Review.
National Review, March 29: On the call, Kasich’s team also stated that Rule 40, which requires a candidate to have won a majority of delegates in eight states in order to be eligible to win the nomination, would not be a barrier for Kasich because the Rules Committee will meet anew to determine the rules for Cleveland.
Morris Fiorina, a political science professor at Stanford University, told us via email that the rule “can be changed by the convention at will.”
Prior to 2012, the rule read like this in 2008:
Rules of the Republican Party, 2008, Rule 40: (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
But in 2012, when Ron Paul secured the loyalty of enough delegates to flirt with meeting that threshold, the rule was amended — at the direction of supporters of Mitt Romney — to keep Paul’s name from being placed in nomination.
In 2012, the delegates changed the required threshold from a plurality of the delegates in five states to a majority of delegates in eight states.
Rules of the Republican Party, 2012, Rule 40: (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.
In 2012, Rule 40 was expressly tagged as a “temporary” rule. As it states in Rule 42, “Upon the adoption of the report of the Convention Committee on Rules and Order of Business, Rule Nos. 26-42 shall constitute the Standing Rules for this convention and the temporary rules for the next convention.”
There will be numerous opportunities for delegates to rewrite rules prior to the 2016 convention.
In an interview with USA TODAY on March 23, Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said likely there will be some rule changes.
“It’s … kind of silly to believe that the Romney delegates would write the rules for a convention in 2016 that, at this point, would be made up mostly of (Texas Sen. Ted) Cruz and Trump delegates,” Priebus said. “The delegates are the delegates won by the people that are being bound by the decision of the delegates.”
Priebus added, however, that he thought it was unlikely the delegates would alter Rule 40.
“I haven’t heard a whole lot of horsepower out there looking for a change on the rule,” Priebus says. “A few people speaking out in the wilderness, but the truth is there is no, at least at this point, groundswell to start changing the rules at the convention.”
Typically, rules are carried over from convention to convention, Putnam, told us. But the threshold for nomination eligibility has evolved over the last few decades.
“There might be a new version written by the rules committee,” Putnam said, which would then need to be voted on by all of the delegates to the convention. In the 1960s, a rule was added to require nominees to obtain a plurality of delegates in at least three states, as a way to limit the number of people whose names could be placed into nomination. The threshold was later upped to a plurality of delegates in five states.
Putnam believes it will be difficult to change the rule, given that most of the delegates are likely to be supporters of Trump or Cruz and would have a vested interest in keeping the rule as it stands to prevent consideration of another candidate.
At the Republican National Committee winter meeting in Charleston, S.C., there was some discussion of lowering the threshold to candidates who have received just one delegate. But the discussion was tabled, and there did not appear to be widespread support for it, Putnam said.
But that doesn’t mean it won’t be changed. Indeed, Politico reported that all four early appointees to the rules committee for this year’s Republican National Convention indicated they were “prepared to weaken or scrap a rule that could limit the convention’s alternatives to Donald Trump.”
Whether or not the rule is likely to be amended is a matter of political debate. But Cruz’s assertion makes the rule seem hard and fast, when in fact, it can be changed, as it was in 2012.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/31/fact-check-kasich-barred-convention-rule/82462626/
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Fact check: Kasich barred by convention rule?
They loved the rule when it kept outsider Ron Paul out of the race.
But now that it hurts party lapdog Kasick?
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Top Republicans talking up Paul Ryan as nominee
One of the nation's best-wired Republicans sees a 54 percent chance that Ryan will end up as the nominee.
By MIKE ALLEN
04/04/16
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House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wis. leaves the House Ways and Means Committee room on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, March 23. | AP Photo
On the eve of the Wisconsin primaries, top Republicans are becoming increasingly vocal about their long-held belief that Speaker Paul Ryan will wind up as the nominee, perhaps on the fourth ballot at a chaotic Cleveland convention.
One of the nation's best-wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60 percent chance of a convention deadlock and a 90 percent chance that delegates turn to Ryan — ergo, a 54 percent chance that Ryan, who'll start the third week of July as chairman of the Republican National Convention, will end it as the nominee.
"He's the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment," the Republican source said. "That's what you need to be."
Ryan, who's more calculating and ambitious than he lets on, is running the same playbook he did to become speaker: saying he doesn't want it, that it won't happen. In both cases, the maximum leverage is to not want it — and to be begged to do it. He and his staff are trying to be as Shermanesque as it gets. Ryan repeated his lack of interest Monday morning in an interview from Israel with radio host Hugh Hewitt.
Of course in this environment, saying you don't want the job is the only way to get it. If he was seen to be angling for it, he'd be stained and disqualified by the current mess.
But Ryan, 46, a likable Midwesterner, could look too tempting to resist as Republicans finally focus on a beatable Hillary Clinton. He got rave reviews for a "State of American Politics" speech on March 23 (hashtag on his podium: "#ConfidentAmerica," the title of his high-minded manifesto at the Library of Congress in December). In the "State of Politics" address, Ryan offered himself as the anti-Trump (without mentioning The Don): "Politics can be a battle of ideas, not insults."
On "Morning Joe" Monday morning, Joe Scarborough said that if Trump falls even one vote short of a clinch, the convention will "look for someone else": "If Trump doesn't get the number, they'll say they have rules for a reason." And Karl Rove told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt last week: "A fresh face might be the thing that would give us a chance to turn this election and win in November against Hillary."
Top Republicans say "fresh face" is code for "Paul Ryan."
A Ryan friend chuckled when we asked if he wants it, and pointed to last month's address: "That was somebody who was laying out the speech that, in most cases, you'd give six months before you announce you're going to run - when you're going around the country, raising money for your leadership PAC."
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/paul-ryan-republican-nominee-convention-221522#ixzz44sZwGWOv
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WSJ: Trump, Cruz Fear GOP Convention May Nominate Kasich
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=d06b8c81-41a1-4989-9e4b-57e6a091314c&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: WSJ: Trump, Cruz Fear GOP Convention May Nominate Kasich (Getty Images)
By Cathy Burke | Tuesday, 05 Apr 2016
The Wall Street Journal is pushing for the continued presidential run of underdog Gov. John Kasich, asserting rivals Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz want him out because they fear "the convention might want to nominate a potential winner."
In an editorial posted Monday night, the newspaper writes the Ohio governor "did the public service of winning Ohio's delegates" that had Trump won, would have locked up the nomination.
Kasich "deserves a chance to see if he can win Pennsylvania or pick up delegates in the East and California," the editorial states.
Before Tuesday's primary in Wisconsin, Trump had 737 delegates, Cruz 475 and Kasich 143.
"All of a sudden the two Republican presidential front-runners seem unnaturally preoccupied with the guy in third place, and they're teaming up to demand that John Kasich drop out," the editorial states.
"Why not let the voters decide, as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz otherwise like to say?"
The editorial board notes Kasich has "no hope" of reaching the mandated 1,237 delegates needed to cinch the GOP nomination; if no candidate comes to the convention with that number, an open convention would pick its nominee.
"What . . . Trump and Cruz really fear is that the convention might want to nominate a potential winner," the editorial states.
Breaking News at Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/WSJ-Trump-Cruz-GOP-Convention/2016/04/05/id/722370/#ixzz44yx5DWvM
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Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination
(http://media.breitbart.com/media/2016/04/wi/afp_9a5c708a221e2ae3b2cc4747204b832695e1739a-640x447.jpg)
Republican presidential hopeful Donald TrumpAFP
by MIKE FLYNN & MICHAEL PATRICK LEAHY
6 Apr 2016
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
April 19th
The next primary is in Donald Trump’s home state of New York. The state’s 95 delegates are awarded proportionally at both the congressional district level and statewide, unless a candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote. Trump is currently backed by 53 percent of New York Republicans in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
If Trump won more than 50 percent of the vote statewide and more than 50 percent in each of the state’s 27 congressional districts, he would win all 95 of the state’s delegates. We do not believe Trump will be able to sweep all of the contests in New York. While his overall polling average is right at the threshold for sweeping the statewide delegates, there isn’t enough support to ensure a sweep of all the state’s congressional districts. Trump’s overall level of support in New York has come down in recent weeks.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +75
April 26th
One week after New York, five states on the East Coast — Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania — vote in primaries, awarding a total of 172 delegates. The smallest state, Delaware, with 16 delegates, is winner-take-all. The largest prize, Pennsylvania, awards 17 of its 71 delegates to the winner of the statewide vote. The other 54 delegates are directly elected in congressional districts and not bound to support any particular candidate. All of the contests, except Rhode Island, are closed primaries, meaning only registered Republicans can participate.
We assume Donald Trump will win all of these contests, as he has generally performed very well in this region. The voters here are also more moderate than other states, blunting the appeal of the Cruz campaign. Kasich ought to perform well in this area, at least enough to win some delegates.
In Pennsylvania, 54 delegates are directly elected in the commonwealth’s 18 congressional districts. The delegates run without any candidate affiliation listed on the ballot. This puts an enormous premium on campaign organization and infrastructure, as voters have to know which delegate is supporting a particular candidate. In every contest so far, Cruz has had a better campaign organization than either Trump or Kasich.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +95
May 3rd
Indiana is the only state holding a primary on this date. It has 57 delegates, awarding 30 to the winner of the statewide vote and three to the winner of each of the state’s nine congressional districts. The state is an emerging battleground, voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. It is a microcosm of the agricultural midwest — the industrial rust belt and suburban office parks.
We expect Ted Cruz to win the state after his performance in Wisconsin. We also expect Trump and Kasich to pick up delegates in specific congressional districts.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +6
May 10th
Nebraska and West Virginia vote on May 10th, likely allowing Cruz and Trump to each pick up a state. Nebraska, with 36 delegates, is the biggest single prize, as it is winner-take-all. It is a closed primary, meaning only Republicans can vote. We expect Cruz to win, as he has performed very well in the Plains region.
West Virginia is an open primary, meaning that Democrats and Independents can vote in the Republican contest. The state has 34 total delegates, awarding 25 to the statewide winner and three delegates in each of the state’s three congressional districts. The district delegates are elected directly, meaning the top three delegate vote-getters are elected, regardless of how their candidate performs. We expect Cruz to pick up a few delegates at the district level but Trump to win statewide. Its voters match the demographics where Trump has performed well this primary.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +20
May 17th
Oregon votes and awards 28 delegates. The primary is only open to Republican voters and the state’s delegates are awarded proportionally, based on the statewide vote. Polling has been limited in Oregon and primary voting there can often be more conservative than the overall state’s political profile. We expect all candidates to pick up delegates here.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +10
May 24th
Washingon closes out the Northwest with a closed primary, awarding its 44 delegates proportionally. The state is similar to Oregon and we expect each candidate to win some delegates.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +20
June 7th
The final day of primary voting and one of the richer prizes, with 303 delegates at stake across the country. The states voting, California, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, and New Jersey cover almost every region of the country. Three of these, California, New Mexico, and South Dakota are closed primaries. New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota are winner-take-all, while the others are proportional.
Based on the assumptions above, Donald Trump will have to win 263 of the day’s delegates, 87 percent, to secure the 1,237 delegates necessary to seal the nomination before the RNC convention. That is a very tall order, based on how delegates are awarded on this day.
We expect Donald Trump to win New Jersey and its 51 delegates ,while Ted Cruz will capture Montana’s 27 delegates. South Dakota is a toss-up currently, because there is little polling or past election info to accurately gauge the state. Our assumption is awarding it to Trump here, but its 29 delegates could easily swing to Cruz.
The main battleground on June 7th will be California, with a rich 172 delegates. The winner of the statewide vote, however, only receives 10 delegates. The remaining delegates go to the winner of each of the state’s 53 congressional district. The candidate receiving the most votes in each district wins three delegates.
Current polling shows Trump with an eight point lead, but the race has narrowed considerably in the past several weeks. We expect the race to narrow even more as the realization that the GOP nomination hangs in the balance becomes evident. Only registered Republicans can vote in the primary, but we still expect the state will shatter voter turnout records.
At this stage of the campaign, we are tapping Trump to win the bulk of the delegates in California. We estimate he will capture 94 of the state’s 172 delegates. The race, however, will be fought out in each congressional district, putting a big premium on campaign organization and infrastructure.
Expected Trump delegate gain: +192
Final
Allowing some variance, Trump will close out the primary phase of the nomination contest 50-100 delegates short of the 1,237 minimum he needs to secure the nomination on the first ballot. Unless there is a dramatic change in the trajectory of the race, or outside events, it is very hard to envision a scenario where Trump wins 1,237 delegates before the convention. It is possible, too, that he falls much shorter of that goal. This analysis assumes that Cruz’s surge in Wisconsin was a blip and won’t be repeated.
Even with that caveat, it shows the high hurdle facing Trump. This is to say nothing about possible convention rules changes, delegates held by other candidates, or the actions of unbound or RNC delegates. We will look at those scenarios in the future.
This analysis simply looks at the pledged delegates to be awarded over the next two months. It is almost impossible for Trump to secure the nomination outright before the RNC convention.
One final caution. As mentioned early, this is a rather static analysis of the upcoming primaries, which is somewhat favorable to Trump, as he is the current frontrunner. All campaigns, though, have their own rhythm. Except for the final day of voting on June 7th, we are entering a period where the contests are spread out and concentrated on individual states and regions.
The early phases of the primaries were a rapid-fire succession of contests, with voting occuring every few days. With at least a week between these upcoming contests, voters have more time to absorb results in other states and actions and statements by the campaigns. The individual candidates also have more time to make their pitches to specific states and voters than earlier in the process.
In the end, though, the Republican nomination will be decided on the convention floor in Cleveland in July. Whether it is decided in two ballots or 20, it will be a convention for the history books.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/06/donald-trump-will-fall-50-100-delegates-short-1237-needed-clinch-nomination/
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Sanders campaign talks up contested convention, despite long odds
By Judson Berger
Published April 06, 2016
FoxNews.com
Just a few weeks ago, only the Republicans were talking seriously about the possibility of a contested presidential convention. Now, Bernie Sanders’ campaign is ratcheting up predictions that Democrats, too, could have an open convention in July.
The odds remain stacked against the Vermont senator, no matter what his campaign says. And Hillary Clinton’s campaign is aggressively batting down talk of a Philadelphia free-for-all this summer.
But the Democratic underdog’s recent winning streak – bolstered Tuesday by a decisive victory in the Wisconsin primary – has dashed for now Clinton’s hopes of swiftly sewing up the nomination and pivoting to the general election, certainly not while the springtime cherry blossoms are still on the trees in Washington. The Sanders camp’s bold predictions speak to their hope that they can now drag out the race until July by blunting the front-runner’s pledged delegate gains.
“It will be an open convention, likely with neither candidate having a majority of pledged delegates," Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver told CNN on Tuesday.
Those predictions were met with a round of reality checks by team Clinton.
Campaign manager Robby Mook blasted out a fundraising memo Tuesday night, as Sanders was rolling to victory in Wisconsin, saying Clinton’s delegate lead “is nearly insurmountable.”
He said the Sanders camp, in pushing for an open convention, is trying to “flip delegates’ votes, overturning the will of the voters.”
The big question is what specifically it would take for Clinton to avoid an open convention.
The complicating factor is the role played by “superdelegates,” party insiders free to support whomever they want. When those delegates and “pledged” delegates awarded via primaries and caucuses are added together, Clinton has a huge 1,748-1,058 delegate lead.
She would need to win just 635 of the remaining delegates – roughly a third -- to get a majority of total delegates, or 2,383, before the convention. Given her record in the primaries so far, that’s hardly a heavy lift.
But when only pledged delegates are counted, Clinton’s lead is narrower, at 1,279-1,027.
Despite Weaver’s comment, Clinton could easily win a majority of them with roughly 43 percent of the remaining pledged delegates.
The Sanders campaign, however, may be setting the bar much higher. If they argue Clinton must win 2,383 pledged delegates to clinch the nomination – in other words, hit a majority of all delegates counting only pledged delegates – she would need more than 60 percent of the remaining pledged field.
Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said she thinks that’s what the Sanders campaign is saying.
Whether the Democratic National Committee sees it the same way is unclear.
Asked specifically what it would take to avoid an open convention, a DNC official reiterated that 2,383 represents the majority of all delegates, but would not speculate beyond that.
The Sanders campaign is not entirely clear, either, on how an open convention would emerge.
Sanders press secretary Symone D. Sanders told FoxNews.com the campaign is focused on simply winning states, predicting a strong showing in the Wyoming caucuses this weekend, before the race heads next to New York and other delegate-rich territory.
“There is a path to the nomination for us,” she said, adding that they will go to Philadelphia but not elaborating on what exactly might trigger an open convention in their eyes.
So what’s the end-game?
Even if Clinton’s pledged delegate support is a little short, the former secretary of state still has hundreds of superdelegates on her side.
Weaver noted to CNN that the superdelegates “don’t count” until they vote at the convention. But unless the Sanders camp could somehow wrest away huge swaths of that support, the best case scenario for Sanders might be an open convention in name only – where superdelegates put Clinton over the top as soon as the voting begins.
“She’ll use the superdelegates to finish it off if she doesn’t hit that bar [with pledged delegates],” strategist Mary Anne Marsh said.
She, too, described Clinton’s lead as “insurmountable,” and played down the possibility of a contested convention.
“This is more wishful thinking on the part of the Sanders campaign than anything based on facts or math,” she told FoxNews.com, while questioning whether Sanders might try to use his delegates as leverage to extract some wishlist item at the convention.
Mook said in a memo posted on Medium that “the delegate math is on our side.” He noted that even among pledged delegates, Clinton has a sizeable lead, and the upcoming contests pose another challenge for Sanders.
“[W]ith each passing week, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that Senator Sanders will be able to catch up. In order to do so, Sanders has to win the four remaining delegate-rich primaries — New York, Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey — with roughly 60 percent of the vote,” Mook said.
Clinton in the meantime is taking a tougher tone toward Sanders, even telling Politico’s Glenn Thrush she’s not sure he’s a real Democrat.
“He’s a relatively new Democrat, and, in fact, I’m not even sure he is one,” she said. “He’s running as one. So I don’t know quite how to characterize him.”
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/06/sanders-campaign-talks-up-contested-convention-despite-long-odds.html?intcmp=hpbt1
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Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention
The ‘establishment’ might not like Cruz, but the delegates likely will.
By NATE SILVER
APR 6, 2016
Ted Cruz during a primary night campaign event in Milwaukee on Tuesday. PAUL SANCYA / AP
It’s like something out of an Aaron Sorkin script. After their bitterly divisive primary, the Republican delegates come together to nominate John Kasich on the fourth ballot at a contested convention in Cleveland, despite his having won only his home state of Ohio. Or they choose House Speaker Paul Ryan, despite his not having run in the primaries at all. Balloons descend from the ceiling, celestial choirs sing and everything is right again with the Republican Party, which goes on to beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November.
As I said, it’s like something out of a TV show. In other words: probably fiction. It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington.
But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will. And most of them will be chosen at state or local party conventions a long way from Washington. Few will be household names, having quietly attended party gatherings in Fargo, North Dakota, or Cheyenne, Wyoming, for years with little remuneration or recognition. Although the proverbial Acela-riding insiders might dream of Ryan or Kasich, there are indications that the rank-and-file delegates are into Ted Cruz — and they’re the ones who will have votes in Cleveland.
To recap a bit, the Republican presidential voting process is separate from the delegate selection process in most states. In South Carolina, for instance, most delegates are selected through a series of county, congressional district and state conventions. Although those delegates are bound to Trump (who won the state’s primary on Feb. 20) on the first ballot, they could peel off and vote for another candidate after that.1
There are some states where delegates are selected directly on the ballot (as in Maryland, for instance) and others where slates are submitted by the candidates (as in New Hampshire) — these are a fairly small minority. Below, you’ll find a table showing the Republicans’ delegate selection method in all states and territories, according to the Republican Party’s rulebook.
TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE NOT TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE
STATE OR TERRITORY BY CANDIDATES ON PRIMARY BALLOT AT STATE OR LOCAL CONVENTIONS BY STATE OR LOCAL PARTY COMMITTEES RNC MEMBERS
Alabama 47 3
Alaska 25 3
American Samoa 6 3
Arizona 55 3
Arkansas 12 25 3
California 169 3
Colorado 34 3
Connecticut 25 3
Delaware 13 3
D.C. 16 3
Florida 81 15 3
Georgia 73 3
Guam 6 3
Hawaii 16 3
Idaho 29 3
Illinois 54 12 3
Indiana 54 3
Iowa 27 3
Kansas 37 3
Kentucky 43 3
Louisiana 43 3
Maine 20 3
Maryland 24 11 3
Massachusetts 27 12 3
Michigan 56 3
Minnesota 35 3
Mississippi 37 3
Missouri 49 3
Montana 24 3
Nebraska 33 3
Nevada 27 3
New Hampshire 20 3
New Jersey 48 3
New Mexico 21 3
New York 92 3
North Carolina 69 3
North Dakota 25 3
No. Mariana Isl. 6 3
Ohio 63 3
Oklahoma 40 3
Oregon 25 3
Pennsylvania 54* 14 3
Puerto Rico 20 3
Rhode Island 16 3
South Carolina 47 3
South Dakota 26 3
Tennessee 41 14 3
Texas 152 3
Utah 37 3
Vermont 13 3
Virgin Islands 6 3
Virginia 46 3
Washington 41 3
West Virginia 31 3
Wisconsin 24 15 3
Wyoming 26 3
Total 259 398 1,358 289 168
Share of total 10% 16% 55% 12% 7%
How are Republican delegates chosen?
* 54 Pennsylvania delegates are directly elected but unbound to any candidate.
SOURCE: REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE PRESIDENTIAL PROCESS PLANNING BOOK
Without getting too lost in the details,2 there are five major delegate selection methods:
Candidates choose their delegates (10 percent of delegates). In some states, candidates name a slate of delegates. These states include California, making it even more important to the Republicans’ delegate math; delegates won in California are likely to remain loyal to their candidates longer than in most places.
Directly elected (16 percent of delegates). Other delegates, as I mentioned, are chosen directly on the primary ballot. Usually, the ballot indicates which candidate the delegate prefers, and the delegates are bound to that candidate. An important exception is Pennsylvania, where 54 delegates will be elected on the ballot as uncommitted.
In these first two cases, there’s a strong link between the presidential preference vote and delegate selection. The link isn’t perfect — weird things can happen when voters are asked to choose from among a number of delegates they’ve never heard of — but it’s pretty close. However, these two groups combined will represent only 26 percent of all delegates in Cleveland (or 24 percent if Pennsylvania’s uncommitted delegates aren’t included in the tally).
The other delegate selection methods are as follows:
Selected at state or local conventions (55 percent of delegates). The majority of delegates, as I mentioned, are chosen through a series of state and local conventions or caucuses. This is grass-roots democracy at work, with somewhere between dozens and thousands of Republican activists attending these events.
Selected by state or local party committees (12 percent of delegates). In a few other cases, however, party insiders are responsible for appointing some delegates. The state executive committee names 14 at-large delegates in Tennessee, for instance, a point of contention because these delegates are thought not to be favorable to Trump even though he won the state.
Republican National Committee members (7 percent of delegates). Finally, the 168 members of the RNC — three in each state — are automatically chosen as delegates. This used to be an important group because these delegates were uncommitted even on the first ballot in many states, making them equivalent to the Democrats’ “superdelegates.” But this year, Republican rules usually bind them to the statewide winner on the first ballot. Like other delegates, they may be free to choose whom they want later on.
We know that Cruz is likely to do well among delegates chosen through state and local conventions because we’ve seen that demonstrated quite a few times already. This is most obvious in the three states — Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota — where there was no presidential preference vote. Cruz won nine of the 12 delegates chosen at county conventions in Wyoming (Trump won one), and Cruz has gotten six of six picked so far at congressional district conventions in Colorado (more Colorado congressional districts will choose their delegates this week). In North Dakota, delegates are technically unbound, but Cruz got a highly favorable slate of delegates approved at the state convention on Sunday; only one or two delegates of the 25 chosen appear favorably disposed to Trump.
Cruz has also gotten good results at state and local conventions in states that do hold a presidential preference vote. In fact, considering that relatively few states have completed their convention process, it’s remarkable how many examples you can find of Cruz cleaning Trump’s clock: for example, in Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and South Dakota. It’s possible that Trump will improve his delegate-selection efforts in subsequent states, and with his chance of winning the GOP nomination down to 49 percent at prediction markets, he’s become a tempting buy-low opportunity. But in terms of delegate selection, Trump has nowhere to go but up, making it more essential for him to win 1,237 delegates by California or come very close to it.
We have fewer examples of how Cruz will fare among delegates chosen by party committees, but Tennessee represents an initial success for him. Another good proxy for how state party insiders are leaning is endorsements from state legislators. Cruz has about six times more of those than Trump and more than twice as many as Kasich, according to data collected by Boris Shor and Will Cubbison. Furthermore, Cruz has been fairly popular among state legislators for some time, according to Shor and Cubbison; they’re not merely coming to him out of desperation.
Then there are the 168 RNC delegates. Perhaps they’d be favorably disposed to Ryan or Kasich, but they represent a relatively small share of the delegate pool. And with strong ties to their state parties, they don’t all fit the stereotype of Washington insiders either.
It also helps Cruz that he, like Trump, will have won a fair number of delegates from the first two categories — directly elected delegates and delegates chosen by the candidates. True, these may be only about a quarter of delegates combined, but those are delegates that a candidate like Ryan would have a hard time winning over, meaning that he’d need a supermajority of delegates from the other categories. Also, in some states, delegates are bound based on the primary or caucus results for more than one ballot. So while Cruz could be a viable choice from the second ballot onward, it might not be until the fourth ballot or so that Ryan would really have a shot.
It’s true that a contested convention is uncharted territory in the modern political era, so we can’t be completely sure what the delegates would do. The 2,472 delegates have nearly unlimited authority to rewrite the convention rules, and if most of the them really wanted to see Ryan or Kasich nominated, they could probably find a way to do it. Or, if the voting was a stalemate between Trump and Cruz for many ballots, a true dark horse — maybe someone far more obscure than Ryan or Kasich — could emerge as a compromise. We can’t rule out these outcomes.
But we’re also learning more and more about who those delegates are now that they’re being chosen. They’re not members of the Washington “establishment.” Instead, they’re mostly grass-roots activists, and many of them want Cruz to be their next president.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ted-cruz-not-paul-ryan-would-probably-win-a-contested-convention/
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Wisconsin gives GOP senators new hope that Trump will be defeated
By Alexander Bolton - 04/07/16
The thumping Donald Trump suffered in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary has given new hope to GOP senators that their party won’t enter November with the businessman as their presidential nominee.
Republican lawmakers say Ted Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin makes it unlikely that Trump will secure the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination, setting up a fight at the convention this July in Cleveland.
“Yes, I think its’ going to be contested because he’s not going to get to 1,237, and that’s good for the Republican Party,” said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.).
If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, a growing number say, he’s likely to lose the nomination to Cruz or someone else.
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) said “it becomes difficult, more difficult,” for Trump to win the nomination if he does not have the magic number heading into the convention.
Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) said simply, “I don’t believe he’ll be the nominee.”
All three senators endorsed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who dropped out of the race after losing his home state of Florida to Trump last month.
None of them have endorsed a new candidate, but their comments reflect the opposition to Trump among many office-holders in Washington who fear his name at the top of the GOP ticket could lead to big Republican losses in the House and Senate.
Many GOP senators harbor an intense personal dislike toward Cruz, who has repeatedly been a thorn in the side of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
Now that Cruz is the best bet to beat Trump, however, he’s looking more appealing to his colleagues.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who joked at the Congressional Correspondents Dinner in February that someone could get away with murdering Cruz on the Senate floor because he’s so loathed, now leads the charge to rally around him.
Notably, however, Graham’s comments are focused more on stopping Trump than making Cruz the nominee.
“It’s pretty clear to me that we need to stop Donald Trump. I think he’s a disaster. Ted Cruz has the best narrative in terms of success. I think within the Republican Party he has the best chance to win these states to stop Trump,” Graham told reporters Tuesday.
More than 90 percent of the delegates at the convention will be bound to various candidates — largely based on their performances in the primaries and caucuses — but on a second ballot more than 50 percent become unbound and will be free to vote for whomever they support. About 80 percent of the delegates would become unbound on a third ballot.
Many of those delegates are party regulars who are more likely to vote for Cruz, John Kasich or another longtime Republican over Trump, who until recently gave hundreds of thousands of dollars in contributions to both parties.
“I think the center of gravity shifts significantly to Cruz if Trump doesn’t get to 1,237,” said one Senate GOP insider. “If they open it up to unbound delegates, they are by definition party regulars and more likely to support a real Republican.
While Trump suffered a significant defeat in Wisconsin, however, he remains the clear favorite to go to Cleveland with a large lead in delegates.
To win the nomination before Cleveland, Trump would have to win 60 percent of the remaining delegates — a tall order. Still, it could be difficult for the GOP to wrest the nomination away from Trump and his supporters if he has a large lead over Cruz and missed out on the 1,237 threshold by a few dozen delegates.
Trump also may have better days on the campaign trail ahead of him.
A Monmouth poll released Wednesday showed Trump with 52 percent support in New York, which would give him a big chunk of its 95 delegates in the April 19 primary. Cruz lagged in a distant third place in the poll, with only 17 percent support.
Trump is also expected to do well in neighboring Connecticut, which has 28 delegates and holds its primary on April 26.
“He’s suffered a setback” in Wisconsin, said a GOP senator who said he and many colleagues are uneasy about Trump’s candidacy because “nobody knows who he listens to.”
But the lawmaker added, “It’s premature. Trump’s way ahead in New York. It’s unpredictable.”
Privately, many GOP lawmakers are vehement that Trump cannot unify the party and will not be the nominee unless he gets to 1,237.
“That’s an oxymoron, Donald Trump and unifying the Republican Party,” said one senator, who requested anonymity to speak frankly. “Donald Trump is not the Republican Party I’ve known for half a century.”
The lawmaker said he might vote for Trump over Hillary Clinton but could never envision himself embracing the front-runner’s vision.
“Is he going to bring me over to his political philosophy, which is insulting and kicking people? No,” the lawmaker added.
If Trump goes to Cleveland short of 1,237 but with a big lead in delegates over Cruz, they say he will not emerge with the GOP crown.
“We have to go a little further, but if he doesn’t get 1,237, I don’t think he’s the nominee,” another senator said.
A third GOP senator said he was “praying every night for someone with integrity, intelligence and ideas to win.”
“I think Trump has a ceiling. If he doesn’t get to 1,237, I think it’s going to be very difficult” to win the nomination at the convention, the third senator said.
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/275416-wisconsin-gives-gop-senators-new-hope-that-trump-will-be-defeated
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Popular vote results for Florida, Ill, Ohio, NC, Mo, and DC and the totals to date:
Tuesday's results:
3,196,905 = Votes for Trump
4,499,938 = Votes for other candidates
Total:
7,446,394 = Votes for Trump
12,309,275 = Votes for other candidates
Popular vote totals after Arizona, Utah, and Wisconsin:
8,107,544 = Votes for Trump
13,333,131 = Votes for other candidates
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Trump repeatedly getting outsmarted and outworked.
Cruz, Rubio join forces in Arkansas to block Trump delegates
By DAVID M. DRUCKER (@DAVIDMDRUCKER)
4/12/16
Ted Cruz's and Marco Rubio's supporters have teamed up in Arkansas to pack the state delegation with individuals who'll turn against Donald Trump in a contested convention.
Since Rubio ended his presidential bid March 15, his network of party insiders has lined up behind Cruz to win delegates who'd vote for the Texas senator once they're no longer bound to Trump in a floor fight. Trump won Arkansas' GOP primary March 1 with 32.8 percent of the vote compared to Cruz's 30.5 percent and Rubio's 24.9 percent. But Cruz's canny operatives, with Rubio riding shotgun, is likely to thwart Trump in the delegate election.
Trump's organization is as sloppy in Arkansas as elsewhere, just as Cruz's is an efficient machine in state after state. This could ding the Donald, costing him as many as 25 delegates after a first inconclusive ballot. Cruz, who finished with 15 out of the available 40 delegates in primary voting, stands to gain all 16 Trump delegates and the 9 won by Rubio.
Bart Hester, a top Rubio organizer in Arkansas, said he's filling Rubio's delegate slate with individuals committed to opposing Trump in Cleveland. "I would certainly hope it would be someone who has a leaning toward Cruz rather than Trump," Hester, a state senator, told the Washington Examiner on Monday.
"I've got a great working relationship with the state director for Rubio and I think generally what we're looking for is about the same," added state Rep. Bob Ballinger, Cruz's Arkansas co-chairman. "We'll be working together to make sure the right delegates are selected."
According to Arkansas GOP rules, Rubio's nine delegates are bound to vote for him on the first ballot in Cleveland, even though he suspended his White House bid and stopped actively campaigning nearly a month ago. Most high profile Arkansas Republicans endorsed Rubio heading into the state's Super Tuesday, "SEC" primary contest.
A list of big name delegate candidates, and which candidates they are pledging to support, reveals the institutional support for Cruz and Rubio in Arkansas (none are listed as potential delegates for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.) Some Republicans on this list, obtained by the Examiner, appear to be keeping their options open. Sens. John Boozman and Tom Cotton are running to join slates fielded by Cruz, Rubio and Trump; so is Rep. Bruce Westerman.
But the rest of the Arkansas' federal delegation, and the state's top two officials in Little Rock, are for Cruz, Rubio, or both. Rep. Rick Crawford is running as a Rubio delegate; Rep. French Hill to support Cruz or Rubio; and Rep. Steve Womack to back Rubio. Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin are running as Rubio delegates. High profile state and federal lawmakers are basically assured of winning delegate slots.
That is just one reason why the delegation that arrives in Cleveland is likely to be dominated by "never Trump" forces. The other is Trump's lax effort to post delegate candidates that he can depend on to defend his winnings from the primary.
"The Trump Campaign continues what seems to be an ecletic version of a campaign," said a GOP insider in Arkansas, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. "They're not sending their preferred list, they're not having people vetted to make sure they're Trump people."
Trump leads in the race for 1,237 Republican nominating delegates, equal to 50 percent plus one, with 743. Cruz sits at 545 after sweeping delegate elections in Colorado over the weekend, and Kasich trails with 143. Most delegates are only bound to vote for the candidate that won the primary or caucus in their state on the first or second ballot on the convention floor.
After that, the delegates become free agents.
By working delegate elections in precincts, counties and states Trump won, including Arkansas, Cruz is loading slates with loyalists who are pledging to support him for the nomination once unbound. In many of these contests, the Trump campaign has suffered from disorganization — or from being absent from the process. Delegate candidates tend to be comprised of grassroots party regulars, another factor that could hurt Trump.
In Arkansas, delegates will be elected in a series of local elections in April, culminating with meeting of the state central committee on May 14. Candidates had to meet a Feb. 19 deadline to file to run. The Cruz campaign was actively engaged in recruiting candidates going back several months. The Trump campaign was, and remains, largely absent, Arkansas GOP insiders say, mirroring the front-runner's problems in other states.
"They seem to be going Sen. Cruz's way," Marcela White, Cruz's political coordinator in Arkansas, said of the fight for delegates. "It looks good for him."
Reached by telephone, a grassroots organizer for Trump in Arkansas referred the Examiner to a more senior member of the billionaire's team in the state. At press time, that individual had not returned a voice mail requesting comment.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/cruz-rubio-join-forces-in-arkansas-to-block-donald-trump-delegates/article/2588237
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Trump repeatedly getting outsmarted and outworked.
Trump has put ego/image above competence.
How will he make these awesome deals to make the US great.... when he cannot even make deals to come up favorably in these delegate races? He's getting screwed, over and over. How will he "hire the greatest people to get the best results" when his whole delegate chase is being run by a Dole employee that's been out of the game for 20 years?
His kids running the GOTV effort didn't even bother registering to vote. It's all image, no substance. All hat, no cattle.
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Paul Ryan: 'Let Me Be Clear — I Will Not Accept the Nomination'
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=17278f46-cd85-404f-8290-e558282fc1e3&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: Paul Ryan: 'Let Me Be Clear — I Will Not Accept the Nomination'
Tuesday, 12 Apr 2016
House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan said on Tuesday he would reject any attempt to draft him as a presidential candidate, trying to silence speculation that he could surface as a unity choice should Donald Trump or Ted Cruz falter.
"Let me be clear: I do not want nor will I accept the nomination of our party," Ryan said in remarks at the Republican National Committee.
Ryan, the top elected Republican in Washington and the party's 2012 vice presidential candidate, has been the subject of persistent speculation that he could emerge as the nominee if an impasse over the party's pick develops at the July 18-21 Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
In an interview with Milwaukee's WISN radio earlier on Tuesday, Ryan said: "I am going to try again today to put this bed. The answer is 'No' and my strong opinion is, if it goes to an open convention ... my answer is the delegates should pick among the people who actually ran for president this year ...
"I made a really clear choice not to run for president. Therefore, I will not be nominated. I will not allow my name to be placed in nomination and it will not be me. ...I just want to be really crystal clear," he said.
Ryan has repeatedly said he is not interested in entering the presidential race, but advocates for such a scenario have pointed out that he was cool to becoming House speaker until he was finally persuaded to take over from John Boehner last year.
Republicans who see a disaster looming in the Nov. 8 presidential election if Trump or U.S. Senator Cruz of Texas is the nominee have harbored hopes of drafting a popular party figure like Ryan or 2012 candidate Mitt Romney.
For that to happen, no candidate would have garnered the 1,237 delegates required to win the nomination on the first ballot at the convention, and delegates there would have to approve a consensus alternative on a second or subsequent ballot.
Ryan's announcement came on a day when long-shot Republican presidential candidate John Kasich portrayed himself as an antidote to what he called the divisive politics of Trump and Cruz and criticized them as wanting to take the United States down a "path of darkness."
Kasich's "two paths" speech in New York City was an effort to distinguish himself from his rivals and carve out a space for himself as a positive, reasonable conservative a week before New York state's Republican and Democratic primaries on April 19.
Kasich - running a distant third behind Trump and Cruz and with no chance of capturing the Republican nomination unless he can emerge from a contested convention - did not mention Trump and Cruz by name but left no doubt as to who he was talking about.
He lashed out at Trump proposals to deport 11 million illegal immigrants and impose protectionist trade policies. He ridiculed Cruz's idea for a business flat tax, calling it a value-added tax. These are examples of a path of darkness, he said.
"Some who feed off of the fears and anger that is felt by some of us and exploit it feed their own insatiable desire for fame or attention. That could drive America down into a ditch, not make us great again," Kasich said, referring to Trump's signature line.
As 14 other rivals have dropped out of the race, Kasich has doggedly stayed in even though he has underperformed, winning only his home state of Ohio. But his goal is to emerge from a contested convention as a unifying nominee for the November general election, one who polls well against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
"A united America is undefeatable," Kasich said. "We are an exceptional country."
Whether his speech will have an impact on the race at this late stage is far from certain.
Trump is favored to win the April 19 primary in his home state. He holds a huge lead in opinion polls there, with Kasich running a distant second and Cruz in third place.
A victory for Trump would help tamp down concerns among his supporters that he is suddenly vulnerable after Cruz beat him in Wisconsin last week and won all Republican delegates in Colorado on Saturday.
In some good news for Trump, he was formally declared the winner of Missouri's Republican primary, which was held on March 15.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/ryan-run-republican-president/2016/04/12/id/723488/#ixzz45eEEzYpP
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LOL! Paul Ryan is Frank Underwood.
5 Times Paul Ryan Said He’s Not Running for Speaker of the House
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/04/5-times-paul-ryan-said-hes-not-running-speaker-house/
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Cruz likely to block Trump on a second ballot at the GOP convention
By Ed O'Keefe
April 13, 2016
Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz is close to ensuring that Donald Trump cannot win the GOP nomination on a second ballot at the party’s July convention in Cleveland, scooping up scores of delegates who have pledged to vote for him instead of the front-runner if given the chance.
The push by Cruz means that it is more essential than ever for Trump to clinch the nomination by winning a majority of delegates to avoid a contested and drawn-out convention fight, which Trump seems almost certain to lose.
The GOP race now rests on two cliffhangers: Can Trump lock up the nomination before Cleveland? And if not, can Cruz cobble together enough delegates to win a second convention vote if Trump fails in the first?
Trump’s path to amassing the 1,237 delegates he needs to win outright has only gotten narrower after losing to Cruz in Wisconsin and other recent contests, and would require him to perform better in the remaining states than he has to this point.
In addition, based on the delegate selections made by states and territories, Cruz is poised to pick up at least 130 more votes on a second ballot, according to a Washington Post analysis. That tally surpasses 170 delegates under less conservative assumptions — a number that could make it impossible for Trump to emerge victorious.
That is why the race centers on the fevered hunt for delegates across the country. The intensity of the fight has sparked another round of caustic rhetoric — including allegations from party leaders that Trump supporters are making death threats.
“It’s unfortunate politics has reached a new low. These type of threats have no place in politics,” said Kyle Babcock, a Republican delegate from Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District. He received an email from a Trump supporter who warned, “Think before you take a step down the wrong path.”
[The art of the steal: Dealmaker Trump struggles with the GOP delegate race]
Cruz’s chances rest on exploiting a wrinkle in the GOP rule book: that delegates assigned to vote for Trump at the convention do not actually have to be Trump supporters. Cruz is particularly focused on getting loyalists elected to delegate positions even in states that the senator from Texas lost.
On Wednesday in Indiana, for example, Republican leaders are finalizing a delegate slate that will include party activists unlikely to vote for Trump in the state’s May primary. Cruz also is poised to sweep Wyoming’s 26 delegates this weekend in a state where Trump’s campaign did not seriously compete. In Arkansas, Cruz supporters are exploring ways to topple Trump when delegates are chosen next month. And Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has refused to release 171 delegates he won when he was in the race, signaling that he may contribute to the anti-Trump push in Cleveland.
Cruz said this week that he thinks the odds of a contested convention are “very high.”
“In Cleveland, I believe we will have an enormous advantage,” he told radio talk-show host Glenn Beck.
Trump has a commanding lead in total delegates and the overall vote total, but has complained that Republican leaders are conspiring against him in a bid to silence his supporters.
“The RNC should be ashamed of itself for allowing this to happen,” Trump said Tuesday night while campaigning in Rome, N.Y.
Paul Manafort, a senior adviser to Trump, said in an interview that he is confident Cruz will never have a chance to convert Trump delegates.
“Just because [Cruz] has won some delegates in a state where we have the delegates voting for us is not relevant until and unless there’s a second ballot,” Manafort said. “There’s not going to be a second ballot.”
As the battle for delegates has intensified, so too have emotions. Craig Dunn, who was elected Saturday as a Republican delegate from Indiana’s 4th Congressional District, said he has received several threatening phone calls and emails after criticizing Trump in recent news reports.
“When they reference burials and your family in the same email, and telling you that you’re being watched, that’s concerning,” he said.
In Colorado, Republicans are planning a rally Friday to call attention to threats made against GOP chairman Steve House. He said his office received 3,000 phone calls “with many being the trashiest you can imagine” after a state party convention last weekend awarded all 34 delegates to Cruz.
“Shame on the people who think somehow that it is right to threaten me and my family over not liking the outcome of an election,” he wrote on Facebook.
Cruz told Beck on Tuesday that threats made by Trump supporters, including those made by the businessman’s longtime confidant Roger Stone, are “the tactic of union thugs. That is violence. It is oppressive.”
Stone recently told an interviewer that Trump supporters would track down delegates at their hotel rooms in Cleveland if they break away from Trump.
Manafort said that “it’s certainly not part of our policy” to threaten violence, but accused “abusive” Cruz supporters of confronting Trump’s backers at party meetings nationwide.
When the presidential nomination vote is held at the convention, 95 percent of the delegates will be bound to the results in their states for the first vote, giving Trump his best shot at securing a majority.
But if Trump falls short, the convention will cast a second ballot in which more than 1,800 delegates from 31 states — nearly 60 percent of the total — will be unbound and allowed to vote however they want. By the third round, 80 percent of the delegates would be free, sparking a potential free-for-all that could continue for several more rounds.
That is the crux of the state-by-state battle that is playing out over the next two months as Republicans gather at the precinct, county, congressional district and statewide level to choose convention delegates.
“If we go into a contested convention, we’re gonna have a ton of delegates, Donald is gonna have a ton of delegates, and it’s gonna be a battle in Cleveland to see who can earn a majority of the delegates that were elected by the people,” Cruz told a meeting of the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas on Saturday.
He predicted that the first ballot “will be the highest vote total Donald Trump receives. And on a subsequent ballot, we’re gonna win the nomination.”
If Cruz prevails, it will be because of what supporters are doing for him nationwide with what they say is little direct input from his campaign headquarters.
In Arkansas, Republicans will not meet until next month to finalize their delegate slate, but state lawmakers who probably will win a position are talking about voting for Cruz on the second ballot.
“For the vast majority of Cruz voters, Rubio was their second choice, and for the vast majority of Rubio supporters, Cruz was their second choice. So when you’re going to pick delegates, it just makes sense that we would work together,” said state Sen. Bart Hester, who backed Rubio.
In Iowa, Cruz won 11 of the 12 delegates assigned last weekend — meaning that he probably will have their support in later rounds of balloting. That same day in South Carolina, Cruz secured three of the six delegate slots assigned by two congressional districts that Trump had easily won.
“There’s nothing underhanded going on,” said Elliott Kelley, one of the Cruz supporters who won in South Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District. “Delegates are being appointed from the local level. The Trump team just doesn’t have people involved at the local level and they’re not getting delegates.”
Cruz supporters also won two of the three delegate slots from Virginia’s southernmost congressional district even though Trump won there handily. One of those Cruz supporters is Kyle Kilgore, 22, who said he would vote for Trump on the first ballot as required.
“I would have a hard time voting for Trump on the second ballot,” he said.
In Indiana, Dunn will be required to initially vote for whoever wins his congressional district in May. If Trump fails in the first round, Dunn said probably will vote for Ohio Gov. John Kasich on a second ballot.
“I’ll be looking for the candidate who I think has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton in November,” Dunn said. “And if the person I want doesn’t get it, I won’t take my marbles and go home; I will support the nominee of the Republican Party.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/cruz-likely-to-block-trump-on-a-second-ballot-at-the-gop-convention/2016/04/13/6553e724-00bc-11e6-9d36-33d198ea26c5_story.html
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Crybaby Trump needs to read this:
MEMORANDUM
To: Interested Parties
From: Sean Spicer, RNC Chief Strategist and Communications Director @seanspicer
RE: Delegate Allocation And Selection Rules
Date: April 15, 2016
On October 1 of last year, 50 states, 5 territories, and the District of Columbia submitted finalized plans for how delegates would be chosen for the Republican National Convention. These plans were promptly circulated to all of the campaigns and the RNC held a briefing with over 100 members of the media in attendance laying out these plans the next day on October 2.
As a party, we believe in the freedom of the states to make decisions about how they will select delegates to the National Convention. And for decades, this grassroots-driven, democratic process has been transparent and effective.
This cycle is no different.
The rules surrounding the delegate selection have been clearly laid out in every state and territory and while each state is different, each process is easy to understand for those willing to learn it.
It ultimately falls on the campaigns to be up to speed on these delegate rules. Campaigns have to know when absentee ballots are due, how long early voting lasts in certain states, or the deadlines for voter registration; the delegate rules are no different.
Whether delegates are awarded through a primary, caucus, or convention, this process is democracy in action and driven by grassroots voters across the country.
The RNC is transparent about the rules and works with campaigns on a consistent basis to address any questions surrounding the process. As we head into the final contests in April, here is a rundown of those elections and how their delegates will be selected:
WYOMING (29 DELEGATES)
Delegates in Wyoming are elected at the grassroots level at the Wyoming State Party Convention. Campaigns can organize supporters to run as delegates and those candidates can be bound if they declare for a candidate.
NEW YORK (95 DELEGATES)
On April 19, New York Republicans will go to the polls with 95 delegates at stake. Delegates are awarded by congressional district and on an at-large basis. If a candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote in a congressional district they win all three of the at-large delegates in that district. Only those candidates who receive more than 20 percent of the vote are eligible to receive delegates. The delegates bound by the primary vote will then be elected by their peers at grassroots congressional district meetings. The 11 at-large delegates to the National Convention are voted on by the Republican State Committee at their meeting on May 18.
APRIL 26th STATES (172 DELEGATES)
CONNECTICUT (28 DELEGATES)
Delegates are submitted as slates by the candidates and are awarded on an at-large and congressional district basis. At-large delegates are awarded proportionately for all candidates who receive over 20 percent of the vote with all at-large delegates awarded to a candidate if they break 50 percent. The plurality winner of the congressional district vote wins all three delegates from the district. Both the at-large and congressional are elected at the State Committee Meeting on April 26.
DELAWARE (16 DELEGATES)
Delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis and are voted on as a slate at the state convention on April 29.
MARYLAND (38 DELEGATES)
Three delegates for each candidate are elected directly on the ballot in each congressional district and at-large delegates are voted on individually at the State Central Committee meeting on May 14. Congressional district delegates are winner-take-all by district vote, at-large delegates are winner-take-all by statewide vote.
PENNSYLVANIA (71 DELEGATES)
Pennsylvania elects three delegates from each congressional district on the primary ballot and the State Committee elects 14 at-large delegates at their meeting on May 21. Congressional district delegates are submitted by campaigns, though are technically unbound. At-large delegates are winner-take-all based on the statewide vote.
RHODE ISLAND (19 DELEGATES)
Delegates are elected directly on the ballot in the primary election. Delegates are awarded proportionately on an at-large and congressional district basis with a 10 percent threshold.
For more information and facts about the convention, conventionfacts.gop addresses frequently asked questions about delegates, the rules, and how the process works.
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Ted Cruz: Nobody is getting to 1,237 delegates before the GOP convention
By David Sherfinski - The Washington Times
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Sen. Ted Cruz on Wednesday said no candidate is going to reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the Republican presidential nomination before the party’s convention in July, predicting that he and GOP front-runner Donald Trump are headed toward a battle at an open convention in Cleveland.
“We are headed to a contested convention,” Mr. Cruz said 1210 WPHT radio in Pennsylvania. “At this point, nobody is getting 1,237.”
“Donald is going to talk all the time about other folks not getting to 1,237. He’s not getting there, either. None of us are getting to 1,237,” Mr. Cruz said.
“And we’re going to go into Cleveland. I’m going to have a ton of delegates. Donald’s going to have a ton of delegates. And it is going to be a battle in Cleveland to see who can earn a majority of the delegates who have been elected by the people,” he said.
Mr. Trump was projected to win nearly all of the 95 GOP delegates in New York after his blowout win there Tuesday, which still gives the billionaire businessman a legitimate path to 1,237 before Cleveland.
But the results mean Mr. Cruz now has to think about swaying “unbound” delegates and those committed to other candidates on the first ballot.
Mr. Cruz acknowledged Mr. Trump had a “good night” on Tuesday.
“He won his home state — everyone expected him to win his home state,” he said. “Everyone knew he was going to.”
Mr. Cruz pointed out that prior to Tuesday, he had picked up wins in Wisconsin, Utah, North Dakota, Colorado and Wyoming.
“What happened was Donald Trump and all of his supporters and all of his media surrogates were very unhappy that he kept losing, and so they began screaming about voterless elections,” he said. “It’s a very bizarre concept, given that over 1.3 million people voted, and it’s all nonsense. It’s complete nonsense.”
In states like Colorado and Wyoming, Mr. Cruz picked up delegates that were decided through convention processes, rather than primaries or caucuses. Mr. Trump, in turn, blasted the delegate process as “rigged” after losing delegates to Mr. Cruz in those states.
“What is happening is we’re beating Donald Trump in election after election after election. He doesn’t like it. He doesn’t handle losing very well, and so he cries and he whines, but he also tries to distract,” he said.
Mr. Trump once again called the system “crooked” and “rigged” in his victory speech in New York Tuesday evening.
“We’re going to go back to the old way. It’s called you vote, and you win,” Mr. Trump said.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who was projected to pick up a few delegates in New York, had already been mathematically eliminated from reaching the 1,237 number before Cleveland.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/20/ted-cruz-nobody-getting-1237-delegates-gop-convent/
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GOP is gonna change the rules to give Kasich a chance.
Such a pile of shit. A reverse Ron Paul rule, to include a person who wins 2 outta 50+ contests lol.
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Was talking to someone today who said there is a growing movement to ensure the convention rules do not bind delegates. There was a call today or yesterday with about 1,000 participants. Not sure how many are on board, but a fight is brewing.
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Was talking to someone today who said there is a growing movement to ensure the convention rules do not bind delegates. There was a call today or yesterday with about 1,000 participants. Not sure how many are on board, but a fight is brewing.
It's gonna happen. It's perfectly legal for the RNC to just change the rule, allowing delegates to vote for whoever they want. A couple hundred Trump delegates will bail the moment they get permission.
Then it's wide open. Paul Ryan? Cruz? Ben Affleck or Tom Brady? LOL!
Trump is intentionally underachieving so they'll bounce him - he won't fight that hard.
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It's gonna happen. It's perfectly legal for the RNC to just change the rule, allowing delegates to vote for whoever they want. A couple hundred Trump delegates will bail the moment they get permission.
Then it's wide open. Paul Ryan? Cruz? Ben Affleck or Tom Brady? LOL!
Trump is intentionally underachieving so they'll bounce him - he won't fight that hard.
Honestly, if it was anyone else, the Republicans probably win.
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It's gonna happen. It's perfectly legal for the RNC to just change the rule, allowing delegates to vote for whoever they want. A couple hundred Trump delegates will bail the moment they get permission.
Then it's wide open. Paul Ryan? Cruz? Ben Affleck or Tom Brady? LOL!
Trump is intentionally underachieving so they'll bounce him - he won't fight that hard.
Tom Brady....we've already had an actor as President.
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Hail Mary.
Anti-Trump Forces Close to 'Conscience' Vote at Convention
By Greg Richter | Wednesday, 06 Jul 2016
Anti-Trump forces may be close to the 28 votes they need to allow delegates to the Republican National Convention to be "unbound" and vote against Donald Trump's nomination even though currently rules require them to vote for Trump at least on the first ballot, The Wall Street Journal reports.
According to a survey of delegates by the Journal, 20 members of the rules committee say they favor allowing delegates to be unbound and vote their "conscience," as suggested in June by House Speaker Paul Ryan, who will serve as the convention's chairman next week in Cleveland.
The magic number of 28 is one-fourth of the 112 total members of the Convention Rules Committee. Their approval would allow the issue to then go before the full convention.
In addition to the 20 who told the Journal they would consider allowing delegates to be unbound, 59 said they support leaving the rules as they are, which would mean Trump delegates would be required to vote for him on the first round. The remaining 33 either could not be reached or did not respond.
Other groups have gotten different numbers.
Internal surveys by the Rules Committee found 18 willing to vote to unbind. Trump's own campaign counted 15.
But committee member Kendal Unruh, who is part of the anti-Trump movement, said she has more than 30 commitments, though some will not admit so publicly.
If the effort does succeed at the committee level, it would need half of the total delegates' support (1,237) to pass.
Committee member Randy Evans, a Trump backer, has taken a survey that shows that only 890 delegates personally support Trump, while 680 don't back him, according to the Journal, leaving about 900 up for grabs.
The battle over Trump's controversial candidacy did not end when he captured the required 1,237 delegates needed to be named the presumptive nominee. Anti-Trump forces have continued their efforts to block his nomination at the convention, including through the so-called "conscience" vote.
"The last thing I would do is tell anybody to do something that's contrary to their conscience," Ryan said during a "Meet the Press" interview. "Of course I wouldn't do that."
Many anti-Trump delegates have taken that as a sign that Ryan, who has endorsed Trump but also been critical of some of his statements, supports their effort.
Mike Stuart, Trump's West Virginia co-chairman and a member of the Rules Committee, told the Journal he will seek reprimands of anti-Trump party members.
But committee member Gina Blanchard-Reed of Washington urged fellow members to vote as they feel led.
"If we are a party of liberty, what are we afraid of?" she said in an email to committee members. "What are we unwilling to do? Does it mean that Donald Trump would be denied the nomination? Possibly. Possibly not. He would come out of the Convention stronger if he won the nomination as a result of a FREE WILL vote."
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/anti-Trump-forces-conscience-vote/2016/07/06/id/737428/#ixzz4DfryeC2o
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it'd be the TV show of the year - bigger than the game of thrones finale - if the repubs bounced Trump.
they know he's a dem plant, but admitting it would undermine their party in a huge way.
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Anti-Trump delegate in Virginia wins portion of lawsuit
Published July 11, 2016
Associated Press
RICHMOND, Va. – An anti-Donald Trump delegate to the Republican National Committee convention won a small legal victory Monday he hopes will provide a boost to longshot efforts at derailing the billionaire businessman from formally clinching the GOP presidential nomination.
But the ruling issued Monday by a federal judge in Richmond is limited in scope. It means that delegates cannot be obligated to vote in a winner-takes-all fashion, as stated in an obscure portion of Virginia election law. But the law in question was so obscure that Republicans had already decided to allocate delegates in a proportional fashion, based on the results of the state's March 1 primary, which Trump won. The ruling leaves that unchanged.
Still, Virginia delegate Carroll Correll Jr., who filed the lawsuit last month, counted the ruling as a symbolic victory.
"Requiring delegates to vote for any candidate is unconstitutional and today's announcement is a blow to Trump's efforts," said Correll.
Correll's lawsuit was backed by Citizens in Charge Foundation, which is part of a diverse group of Trump opponents still trying to find a way for the party to pick another candidate at next week's convention.
But Trump supporters scoffed at the notion that the ruling will have any noticeable effect.
"It will have no impact on the Virginia delegation," said John Fredericks, a Trump supporter who fought the lawsuit. "Nor will it have any long term ramification for Donald Trump's quest for the nomination on the first ballot."
At issue in the lawsuit was a previously ignored part of Virginia election law that mandates delegates to the national convention to vote in a winner-take-all fashion, instead of proportionally as Republicans had planned. Judge Robert E. Payne said Monday the winner-take-all portion of the state law was unconstitutional and can't be enforced.
The ruling means that Republicans can vote how they have always intended to — with the state's 49 delegates bound to vote proportionally based on the March 1 results — without fear of criminal prosecution. Though the changes of prosecution were always remote: state officials said before the ruling they had no plans to prosecute anyone for how they voted at the GOP convention.
Trump won Virginia's March 1 primary with about 35 percent of the vote, netting 17 delegates during the first round of voting at the convention. Delegates are unbound if there is a second round of voting.
The Republican National Committee's convention is next week, and Trump is the party's presumptive nominee and only candidate still running.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/11/anti-trump-delegate-in-virginia-wins-portion-lawsuit.html
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'Conscience' Vote Will Go to Convention Floor
(http://www.newsmax.com/CMSPages/GetFile.aspx?guid=85ab6ce9-b078-4183-a0fc-9a9006ccd558&SiteName=Newsmax&maxsidesize=600)
Image: 'Conscience' Vote Will Go to Convention Floor (Getty Images)
By John Gizzi
Thursday, 14 Jul 2016
The "conscience clause” — a change in party rules that would unbind delegates from commitments made to any presidential candidate — is dominating convention talk as July 18 draws near.
Such a clause would say that every delegate is free to vote his or her conscience on the first ballot — despite state laws or party rules.
Every convention votes on its own rules, so if this year’s 1,237 Republican delegates wanted to unbind themselves, there is nothing to stop them.
On Sunday, Colorado delegate Kendal Unruh told participants that she is “planning to propose adding a ‘conscience clause’ to the convention’s rules so that there is no confusion about what delegates can do.”
Most delegates who spoke to Newsmax anticipated that a majority of the 112-member Rules Committee would vote down the "conscience clause."
However, betting is strong that at least one-fourth of the committee — 28 members — will vote for the measure, thus requiring the full convention to debate and vote on it next week.
"I can state unequivocally we have the 28 votes," Unruh told Newsmax Wednesday.
Discussion of unbinding the delegates began at the General Session of the Republican National Committee on Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday morning, the opening session of the convention Rules Committee is expected to have a robust debate on the issue.
Members of the Free the Delegates organization founded by Unruh were busy buttonholing RNC members as they arrived in Cleveland.
Moreover, Liz Mair's Make America Awesome organization has launched a nationwide on-line petition drive urging the Republican National Convention to enact the "Conscience Clause."
"I support the ‘Conscience Clause' because I believe strongly that no delegates should be bound to any candidate and they should be empowered to vote for whomever they want," Maine's Republican National Committeewoman Ashley Ryan told Newsmax.
A backer of Ron Paul in '12 and Rand Paul this year, Ryan insisted her position "has nothing to do with Donald Trump. I just believe in non-binding delegates."
But, for the most part, even delegates who are not enamored with the idea of Trump carrying their presidential standard told us that such a change in the way the party conducts its business at such a late date in the nominating process was likely to be voted down by a large margin.
"It's like giving a losing football team a fifth quarter to make up the runs they couldn't score earlier," David Norcross, counsel to the Rules Committee and former New Jersey state GOP chairman, told Newsmax, "Look we've built up this whole primary process and voters expect the process to be translated into results they supported at the national convention."
While admitting he would like to see "a little more spontaneity" in the modern conventions that appear so scripted, Norcross nonetheless said the rewriting of rules at the last minute would have negative results.
"It was a dumb thing to do at the end of the last convention to raise the number of states a candidate had as requirement for being placed in nomination," he said, "It was meant to protect Mitt Romney by denying Ron Paul a nomination speech and roll call. All it did was upset his supporters. And Mitt didn't need any protecting."
Arkansas State Attorney General Leslie Rutledge agreed. In her words, "a decision by the convention to ignore state law [requiring delegates to support the primary winner] would be serious. It would cause serious problems with the elected legislature that passed the primary law and the voters who have entrusted the delegates with carrying out their will."
"The people spoke, and the delegates should honor the will of the people," Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin told Newsmax.
The concept of the "conscience clause" has been around for a while. At the 1976 Republican National Convention, supporters of Ronald Reagan discussed (but later rejected) a similar proposal to try to put their man ahead of President Gerald Ford in their nip-and-tuck contest.
Four years later, Democrat Ted Kennedy's presidential team brought up a "good conscience" clause in which delegates would vote as they choose but it was voted down by a convention dominated by incumbent President and eventual nominee Jimmy Carter.
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Conscience-vote-cleveland-RNC/2016/07/14/id/738577/#ixzz4EP7L6QY0
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"Conscience vote" would 2 things.
End the trump campaign
End all future relevance of all future GOP primary voting.