Investing and personal finance

[SF1900]

All of these posts prove one thing:

These so called expert investors know absolutely nothing about trends.

It’s all guess work.

[loco]

All of these posts prove one thing:

These so called expert investors know absolutely nothing about trends.

It’s all guess work.

Eggxactly!




Wall Street’s dirty secret: It’s terrible at forecasting stocks

December 28, 2022

"Last year, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that the S&P 500 would close out 2022 at 5,100 points. Morgan Stanley predicted a more bearish 4,400. The S&P 500 closed on Tuesday at 3,829.

No major analysts predicted last December that this year would (likely) be the worst for US stocks since 2008, that oil prices would shoot from $70 to $130 and then careen back to $70, and that the Federal Reserve would announce four straight historic three-quarter point interest rate hikes.

This year, forecasters are set to miss the mark by their widest margin in about 15 years, according to FactSet data. They’re on track to have overestimated the performance of the S&P 500 in 2022 by nearly 40%.

Market analysts are great at explaining what drives stocks in the short-term, but predictions clearly haven’t been their cup of tea – nor should they really matter to investors. The S&P 500 has good years and bad years, but long-term investors know that it typically works out in the end: The return averages out to about 10% per year for nearly the last century."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/28/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

[IroNat]

The Buffett Indicator suggests that the US stock market is Overvalued

The current ratio of 170% is approximately 32% (or about 1.0 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is Overvalued relative to GDP.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

[IroNat]

S&P 500 PE Ratio

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

[Gregzs]

How to Avoid Common Home Buying Mistakes

[FitnessFrenzy]

[IroNat]

Inversion Curve:

             2yr   10yr     Diff      30yr
06-02   4.50   3.69   -0.81   3.88

[Gregzs]

Why Wealthy Americans Love UBS, The Secretive Swiss Banking Giant

[IroNat]

Here Are 2 Big Defense Stocks Poised To Pop.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-just-announced-2-1-162053135.html

Lockheed Martin Corp.

Raytheon Technologies Corp.

[Humble Narcissist]

Here Are 2 Big Defense Stocks Poised To Pop.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-just-announced-2-1-162053135.html

Lockheed Martin Corp.

Raytheon Technologies Corp.

They are praying for a war with China or Russia. Military industrial complex.

[IroNat]

They are praying for a war with China or Russia. Military industrial complex.

Don't need a war, just a threat to spur more spending.

[Humble Narcissist]

Don't need a war, just a threat to spur more spending.

Yep, also leaving military gear in countries like Afghanistan.

[Gregzs]

DESTROYING The American Dream With Build To Rent Homes

[SOMEPARTS]

DESTROYING The American Dream With Build To Rent Homes

This is the future and it's already in the works. To be honest a majority of the population do not add enough value to the economy to own a home. Automation and AI will further streamline and make this worse. They have been preparing younger people for a lower standard of living through "equity" and "climate" messaging.

[IroNat]

A young single mom with two kids, unless she has a very well-paying job, should not be able to afford a suburban home with amenities.

My first house in 1984 was a 2-family in the city for $50k.  Even at that I could barely qualify to buy it at then interest rates of 17%.

That same house 40 years later goes for maybe $110-$120k tops.

Young people today expect to start out with a house that their parents could only afford after 20 years that is $500k.

My first house 1984 $50k
2nd house 1989 $75k
3rd house 1997 $114k
Current house 1998 $200k

[SOMEPARTS]

A young single mom with two kids, unless she has a very well-paying job, should not be able to afford a suburban home with amenities.

My first house in 1984 was a 2-family in the city for $50k.  Even at that I could barely qualify to buy it at then interest rates of 17%.

That same house 40 years later goes for maybe $110-$120k tops.

Young people today expect to start out with a house that their parents could only afford after 20 years that is $500k.

My first house 1984 $50k
2nd house 1989 $75k
3rd house 1997 $114k
Current house 1998 $200k

No disagreement but a 1984 dollar is about $3 in today's money..1998 is around $1.87 today. The problem is not just expectations but again earning potential at limited value in the global labor market. This is the reason for the minimum basic income argument. I don't see a time when those that provide value just hand it over to useless eaters to sit around in air conditioning. Certainly not when times get tough, which they will as the money printing continues and creates more and more lower class.

[ThisisOverload]

A young single mom with two kids, unless she has a very well-paying job, should not be able to afford a suburban home with amenities.

My first house in 1984 was a 2-family in the city for $50k.  Even at that I could barely qualify to buy it at then interest rates of 17%.

That same house 40 years later goes for maybe $110-$120k tops.

Young people today expect to start out with a house that their parents could only afford after 20 years that is $500k.

My first house 1984 $50k
2nd house 1989 $75k
3rd house 1997 $114k
Current house 1998 $200k

Depends on where you live.

A 1200 SF starter home where i live is $480K

[ThisisOverload]

DESTROYING The American Dream With Build To Rent Homes

They are creating homes that are way above what the average person can buy and renting them. There is a good side since a lot of American's don't understand credit and savings.

Both of the builders i develop subdivisions for are getting rich on BTR (build to rent).

But all the renters are people who can't qualify to buy a $300k home, but can rent. Plus there are not many homes less than that price, so it's BTR homes or shit apartments for the same price.

[IroNat]

Jim Rickards sounds the alarm and explains that you need to prepare for what's coming next. Jim explains that we have never seen this before and a severe recession is coming.

[FitnessFrenzy]

[SOMEPARTS]

S&P 500 PE Ratio

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Shiller PE Ratio is 30.89. Lookiing at history not good.


https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

[SOMEPARTS]

https://www.dailychartbook.com/p/daily-chartbook-262

[loco]

"The conventional wisdom among bestselling financial writers of the seventies and eighties was that unemployment and recession would get so bad that the fiscal and monetary floodgates would be thrown open to avert depression, bringing on inflation.

To fight it, the Fed would slam on the brakes and throw the country into an even greater slump requiring even more stimulus, causing even worse inflation, requiring even tougher brake slamming...and around and around it would go, inflation, recession, inflation, recession, getting ever worse.

The "malarial economy," Howard Ruff and others dubbed it, alternating chills and fever and, eventually, collapse.  Ruff wrote How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years and (when they didn't come) Survive and Win in the Inflationary Eighties (which proved to be highly desinflamatory).

Douglas Casey cashed in with Crisis Investing.  Ravi Batra hit #1 in 1987 with The Great Depression of 1990 (unemployment was 5.6% in 1990), the same year James Dale Davison and William Rees-Mogg weighed in with The Great Reckoning: Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression followed by Blood in the Streets: Investment Profits in a World Gone Mad."

- Andrew Tobias, The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need

[Humble Narcissist]

This is the future and it's already in the works. To be honest a majority of the population do not add enough value to the economy to own a home. Automation and AI will further streamline and make this worse. They have been preparing younger people for a lower standard of living through "equity" and "climate" messaging.

Yep, The Great Reset.