I was looking at rate cuts back in December as my potential exit point. I'm feel even more strongly about that now.
It seems it doesn't matter any more if macro data is bullish or bearish, the S&P is just gonna go up. Someone pointed out to me it's possibly because inflation still remains a significant part of GDP. That starts to go down when they start cutting rates, so it won't matter if they try sell rate cuts as bullish/soft landing, markets will still probably go risk off for a while.
60% chance the first cuts are in June, 40% it's July. They front run it by a month, so sell off potentially in May. Those percentages can change significantly though, but the later they cut the more ridiculous the pump (and eventual dump) $100k BTC may feel like a cheap entry point soon.
My original 5.33% model which turned out to be correct had rate cuts in 2024. However once we reached my Target the forward modelling didn’t feel right. I prepped for 10.5% rates based on it already but I have WAY too much cashflow, it’s excessive.
So in August last year I rebuilt my model to no rate cuts. I get the same outcome as the prior model but I now have a triple top of inflation 10%-11%, rates grind up each wave. So wave 2 might be 7.5% and wave 3 I finish at 10.5%.
So far it’s been correct for 8 months while market has been wrong. The market has NFI on rates or inflation until 2 weeks out from decision. The market was 98.5% betting on a June cut last month and now that’s dropped to 60% chance. If I get to June with no cut that will be a hold on rates correct for 10 months. I think I have small hikes happening in 2025, I’ll have to look.
I have had Mar-Jul 2024 window for S&P selloff in my original plan FWIW (I had S&P target range 5,300). 3 out of 4 times an S&P correction resulted in a multi year Bitcoin bear market. 1 of 1 times Saylor taking leverage resulted in a multi year bear market.
The ETH ETF is very interesting to me now…… BTC sell off to the 40s, ETH ETF approval in August and we will see funds divert…… the timing would be very interesting. Wall St would get 2 bites of the cherry. A BTC cycle top then moves straight into creating an ETH top. I have BTC 1 peak and I had ETH as 2 peaks. I couldn’t figure out how the 2nd peak for ETH would happen. Maybe this is how 🤔