The 2024 General Election

[B_B_C]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/politics/kari-lake-abortion-arizona.html
Kari Lake Called Arizona’s Abortion Ban a ‘Great Law,’ but Now She Denounces It

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/kari-lake-arizona-abortion-ban

    "I oppose today's ruling, and I am calling on [Democratic Gov.] Katie Hobbs and the state Legislature to come up with an immediate commonsense solution that Arizonans can support," Lake said in a statement.
    But Lake said in 2022 that the near-total ban the ruling upholds is a "great law" and said it sets an example for other states.

[illuminati]

American's shouldn't laugh at Joe
Remember if he'd not had Conversations with Bob Marley ,
Lord Nelson & Genghis Khan America would be at war with Antarctica 

[Thin Lizzy]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/politics/kari-lake-abortion-arizona.html
Kari Lake Called Arizona’s Abortion Ban a ‘Great Law,’ but Now She Denounces It

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/kari-lake-arizona-abortion-ban

    "I oppose today's ruling, and I am calling on [Democratic Gov.] Katie Hobbs and the state Legislature to come up with an immediate commonsense solution that Arizonans can support," Lake said in a statement.
    But Lake said in 2022 that the near-total ban the ruling upholds is a "great law" and said it sets an example for other states.

I understand you’re looking for anything to prop up Biden’s failing campaign but abortion is not gonna be a major issue.

[mphgrove]

I understand you’re looking for anything to prop up Biden’s failing campaign but abortion is not gonna be a major issue.

Well, who knows about a general election but it has proved to be a potent issue so far. And there is absolutely no doubt that the Democrats are favored by that particular issue (there are other issues like immigration and inflation where they are not favored as we all know).

[Thin Lizzy]

Well, who knows about a general election but it has proved to be a potent issue so far. And there is absolutely no doubt that the Democrats are favored by that particular issue (there are other issues like immigration and inflation where they are not favored as we all know).

It ranks at the bottom, more specifically second from the bottom.

In addition, Trump’s position is pretty moderate. He just came out and said the Arizona ban goes too far. They’ll eventually change it.


https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/3/6/inflation-and-the-economy-consistently-rank-as-top-issues-among-likely-voters-and-heres-our-new-way-to-ask-issue-importance

[Grape Ape]

I understand you’re looking for anything to prop up Biden’s failing campaign but abortion is not gonna be a major issue.

Not sure - it screwed up the midterms.

I'm not convinced Trump's position on it will affect anyone's decision, plus, most of his detractors don't actually pay attention to what he says in terms of policy.

[Thin Lizzy]

Not sure - it screwed up the midterms.

I'm not convinced Trump's position on it will affect anyone's decision, plus, most of his detractors don't actually pay attention to what he says in terms of policy.

The majority of the public are all over the place on the issue and as a result rarely have it determine their vote:


https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/05/06/americas-abortion-quandary/

PEW RESEARCH CENTERMAY 6, 2022
America’s Abortion Quandary

A majority of Americans say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, but many are open to restrictions; many opponents of legal abortion say it should be legal in some circumstances

[chaos]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/politics/kari-lake-abortion-arizona.html
Kari Lake Called Arizona’s Abortion Ban a ‘Great Law,’ but Now She Denounces It

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/kari-lake-arizona-abortion-ban

    "I oppose today's ruling, and I am calling on [Democratic Gov.] Katie Hobbs and the state Legislature to come up with an immediate commonsense solution that Arizonans can support," Lake said in a statement.
    But Lake said in 2022 that the near-total ban the ruling upholds is a "great law" and said it sets an example for other states.

Biden made dozens of racist remarks during his career and yet somehow he's not racist.

[Agnostic007]

From Agnostic’s preferred polling site. Does Biden strike you as the type who can rally from behind? [No Homo]

I think 538 is trustworthy. They may get some things wrong, but it's not for lack of trying. Just saw an article from Reuters yesterday or the day before that in their most recent poll biden is ahead 4 or 5%. But at no point have I thought this election was a lock for either candidate. I have hope that Trumps sociopathic tendencies and history both business and political as well as indictments, will bring the independents and lazy Democrats out to vote once more, but there is no guarantees. I'm prepared to accept either outcome.

[Grape Ape]

I think 538 is trustworthy. They may get some things wrong, but it's not for lack of trying. Just saw an article from Reuters yesterday or the day before that in their most recent poll biden is ahead 4 or 5%. But at no point have I thought this election was a lock for either candidate. I have hope that Trumps sociopathic tendencies and history both business and political as well as indictments, will bring the independents and lazy Democrats out to vote once more, but there is no guarantees. I'm prepared to accept either outcome.

I think 538 is too.  I followed Nate Silver when he did the PECOTA projections for Baseball Prospectus.  Just seemed like a guy who loved numbers.

I'm still thinking Biden might not run though.

[Agnostic007]

I think 538 is too.  I followed Nate Silver when he did the PECOTA projections for Baseball Prospectus.  Just seemed like a guy who loved numbers.

I'm still thinking Biden might not run though.

First I have heard of this... What is your thought process? He is actively seeking it and "running" as we speak

[Thin Lizzy]

I think 538 is trustworthy. They may get some things wrong, but it's not for lack of trying. Just saw an article from Reuters yesterday or the day before that in their most recent poll biden is ahead 4 or 5%. But at no point have I thought this election was a lock for either candidate. I have hope that Trumps sociopathic tendencies and history both business and political as well as indictments, will bring the independents and lazy Democrats out to vote once more, but there is no guarantees. I'm prepared to accept either outcome.

You get outlier polls on both sides. That’s why you wanna look at the averages. No way Trump wins the popular by this much:

[B_B_C]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/12/trump-anti-mail-in-voting

Campaign toils to convince Republicans to vote early, crucial to winning the election, while ensuring they don’t annoy Trump

[Gym Rat]

[Grape Ape]

First I have heard of this... What is your thought process? He is actively seeking it and "running" as we speak

I'm sure you've heard of reasons why he wouldn't run.

1. One, if Biden polls get too bad, Dems will 25th amendment him or quietly remove him from running (Newsom etc).

2. I personally don't believe he's physically or mentally fit for another term.  You can only blame so many gaffes on a stutter.

[deadz]

I'm sure you've heard of reasons why he wouldn't run.

1. One, if Biden polls get too bad, Dems will 25th amendment him or quietly remove him from running (Newsom etc).

2. I personally don't believe he's physically or mentally fit for another term.  You can only blame so many gaffes on a stutter.

He's headed to full blown dementia, seriously.

[Agnostic007]

I'm sure you've heard of reasons why he wouldn't run.

1. One, if Biden polls get too bad, Dems will 25th amendment him or quietly remove him from running (Newsom etc).

2. I personally don't believe he's physically or mentally fit for another term.  You can only blame so many gaffes on a stutter.

I don't think either are fit. But here we are... I actually haven't heard, I have tried to distance myself from the news and enjoy life. When I was dialed in.. I found I was stressed by it. I kind of keep up on the fringe, as you cannot have a social life and people not mention something about politics. If Dems "25"th him, that wouldn't bug me.. but I would hope both sides were equally concerned for America and it just doesn't seem that way. 

[Thin Lizzy]

He's headed to full blown dementia, seriously.

He can’t say a single word that isn’t written for him:

i=9Y9UOXdVP04OlsZC

[Grape Ape]

I don't think either are fit. But here we are... I actually haven't heard, I have tried to distance myself from the news and enjoy life. When I was dialed in.. I found I was stressed by it. I kind of keep up on the fringe, as you cannot have a social life and people not mention something about politics. If Dems "25"th him, that wouldn't bug me.. but I would hope both sides were equally concerned for America and it just doesn't seem that way.

I as well rarely  get into it outside of online.

I am more concerned about the apathy in regard to real threats to our democracy - porous border, big tech content manipulation and collusion, dishonest media, DEI/ESI, weaponization of gov't agencies, politicizing of our legal system, judicial activism, and forgetting the lessons of WW2 and 9/11 as we get further away from them.

I wish it wasn't Trump.  But out of the two, I think he is the one who will combat these issues more than the Democrats. In fact, I believe the Democrats are enabling most of them. I believe that party will just do anything to stay in power, and I can point out to more fucked up congressional members on that side of the aisle than the other.  Trump has broken their minds, and they need to get past this and start having more common sense moderates.

[chaos]

I as well rarely  get into it outside of online.

I am more concerned about the apathy in regard to real threats to our democracy - porous border, big tech content manipulation and collusion, dishonest media, DEI/ESI, weaponization of gov't agencies, politicizing of our legal system, judicial activism, and forgetting the lessons of WW2 and 9/11 as we get further away from them.

I wish it wasn't Trump.  But out of the two, I think he is the one who will combat these issues more than the Democrats. In fact, I believe the Democrats are enabling most of them. I believe that party will just do anything to stay in power, and I can point out to more fucked up congressional members on that side of the aisle than the other.  Trump has broken their minds, and they need to get past this and start having more common sense moderates.

The people on the left crying about Trump have created the drive for him by being so extreme. People are looking for the extreme to battle the extreme and the left has gone so far that people are attracted to Trump because of how he's portrayed. If the left was floating more center then Trump would probably not be a viable option for most people on the right.

[Agnostic007]

I as well rarely  get into it outside of online.

I am more concerned about the apathy in regard to real threats to our democracy - porous border, big tech content manipulation and collusion, dishonest media, DEI/ESI, weaponization of gov't agencies, politicizing of our legal system, judicial activism, and forgetting the lessons of WW2 and 9/11 as we get further away from them.

I wish it wasn't Trump.  But out of the two, I think he is the one who will combat these issues more than the Democrats. In fact, I believe the Democrats are enabling most of them. I believe that party will just do anything to stay in power, and I can point out to more fucked up congressional members on that side of the aisle than the other.  Trump has broken their minds, and they need to get past this and start having more common sense moderates.

I have the opposing view. IN the past year the right wing nutcases have made much more noise than the left wing nutcases. Trump in my opinion, will be so focused on defending his "honor" against the onslaught of court cases that you and I will take a back seat. He has made it clear his focus is on himself. 

[Gym Rat]

i=YhiSTONZUMWaeRUI

[Primemuscle]

The people on the left crying about Trump have created the drive for him by being so extreme. People are looking for the extreme to battle the extreme and the left has gone so far that people are attracted to Trump because of how he's portrayed. If the left was floating more center then Trump would probably not be a viable option for most people on the right.

In other words, you are saying that folks on the right, especially MAGA folks are easily manipulated. They will support whomever the left does not.

[mphgrove]

It really all boils down to whether the “Trump scares me” factor or “the Biden’s been bad for my pocketbook factor (compared to when Trump was president)” is stronger. And next to that how important the abortion issue plays. I still think abortion has potency and it favors Biden big time, but whether that offsets the other factors, not sure. To me, it is absolutely 50/50 at the moment.

[Grape Ape]

I have the opposing view. IN the past year the right wing nutcases have made much more noise than the left wing nutcases. Trump in my opinion, will be so focused on defending his "honor" against the onslaught of court cases that you and I will take a back seat. He has made it clear his focus is on himself.

Many of the examples I gave were things this administration is actually doing.  Just look at the Berenson lawsuit, the Twitter files, the government whistleblower testimonies.  The Twitter file stuff should be bigger than watergate, yet the mainstream doesn't even cover it.