how would you having any way of knowing that?
RP is an affable guy, pricincipled and consistent but kooky and even somewhat dangerous (for example he would be a disaster for the economic recovery).
He has ardent supporters but is not poplular with mainstream Republicans and when he starts talking about getting rid of FEMA, Department of Education, etc... he's guaranteed to not get any Obama voters
How would I have any way of knowing that lol? Well when you see other progressives making a case for Paul it's not imaginary. When you see polls where in a hypothetical matchup Paul is the only republican taking a nice chunk of progressive votes, it's not imaginary, people are voting in the polls that way. When you clearly see how much the right hates Obama, it's not imaginary to know they'll vote for Paul over Obama.
If Paul takes just 5% of the progressive vote from Obama, Obama has no shot to win. My guess is he can take up to 10%.
I could ask how could you know Paul or Newt can't win. It's sounds like you're going by gut instinct in stating that for sure. I've at least studied the polls, political climate an what progressives are actually saying.