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Recession Forecast (Ray Dalio):


Head of world’s largest hedge fund says U.S. in a ‘pre-bubble phase’ with a 70% chance of recession
Published: Feb 28, 2018 9:58 a.m. ET

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio recently said he sees a growing chance of a recession as the U.S. enters a “pre-bubble stage.”

“I think we are in a pre-bubble stage that could go into a bubble stage,” the hedge-fund manager said during a Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics on Wednesday, according to a Reuters report.

Dalio, whose hedge fund manages some $160 billion, making it the world’s largest fund, pegged the probability of a recession by the 2020 presidential election at 70%. A recession is sometimes technically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, however, many economists define such a pullback in growth as a significant fall in activity across the economy that lasts more than a few months.

Last month, Dalio suggested that investors would “feel pretty stupid,” if they were holding cash as the stock market was rocketing to fresh heights. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.39% the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.28% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.71%  all slipped into correction territory, characterized as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak earlier this month. Stocks have recovered since that downdraft but are still sharply off their recent peaks.

Dalio’s recession comments echo remarks he has made over in a LinkedIn post, where he wrote that “the risks of a recession in the next 18-24 months are rising.”
He also offered a similar warning in July, citing the potential for a policy mistake by the Federal Reserve as it looks to normalize interest rates from ultralow levels in the wake of the 2007-09 financial crisis.

Jitters about rising yields and resurgent inflation had been partly blamed for the recent selling in stocks, with Wednesday’s late-session selloff materializing after the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.10% touched a fresh four-year peak above 2.95%, in the wake of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January gathering.



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