Brit here, am I getting the impression Trump is ahead in the polls and looks most likely to be the next president at this point?
Sorry for the long reply, but the answer to your question is not a simple yes or no.
Actually, the latest polls (this weekend) show Trump slipping. He is down 4%. Hillary Clinton is still the leader of the two in the polls.Of course, Hillary doesn't have as much competition since there are much fewer Democratic candidates than there are Republican candidates.
One area, as you might imagine where Trump stinks in the polls is with Latino voters. Something like 70% of Latinos polled would not vote for him. The Latino vote has been a deal breaker for candidates in past elections.
If Trump is nominated by the Republican party to run for president, he will face Clinton, who despite some negative press regarding email and her use of a private server and personal account for government business while she was Secretary of State, her poll numbers remain considerably higher than Trump's. She is also well supported by the Democratic party.
With Trump's comments about Carly Fiorina's appearance, he has likely lost any hope of success with women voters.
Trump is outrageous. His outrageousness has kept him front and forward in the media. Some folks confuse media popularity with voter popularity.
The Republican leadership is fragmented. Many of them have spoken out against Trump. If you can't get you own party to support you, how do you expect to win an election. Trump has a history of playing both sides of the fence.
"....Trump has given $541,650 to federal Democratic candidates and fundraising committees going back to 1990, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics. That compares with $429,450 he's contributed to federal Republican candidates and committees over the same period."
