Obama vs Romney

[avxo]

It was a foregone conclusion that Romney would attract the "base" if only because the base looks like it would vote for an inanimate carbon rod instead of Obama. But I didn't think he'd get much traction beyond that because generally speaking, I think Romney has ran a pretty lackluster campaign. Couple that with his "inhererent" unlikeability (he just seems to perpetually rub people the wrong way) and I was pretty sure he'd be toast.

But the first debate and (to a lesser extent) the second one have demonstrated pretty clearly for everyone who doesn't have partisan blinders on that behind the unlikeable, wooden Mitt, is actually someone who might be fairly competent.

I expected a bump, but frankly I'm surprised he's getting as much traction as he is.

[Soul Crusher]

Breaking Tweet: PA Poll: Romney 49 Obama 45
 Twitter ^ | 10/18/2012 | NumbersMuncher

Posted on Thursday, October 18, 2012 4:10:42 PM


Tear down this blue wall! Susquehanna: Latest PA statewide, conducted October 11-13, shows Romney leading by 4-points in PA, 49%-45%.


(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...

[Soul Crusher]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president



NC landslide in the making 

[garebear]

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[blacken700]

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a joke but it's 100% right  you don't have to go any further than this board

[MCWAY]

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Really? Weren't the Dems, all over the moderator from the first debate?

[tu_holmes]

Really? Weren't the Dems, all over the moderator from the first debate?

I do not recall that at all. I recall everyone saying Lehrer let them just go and go.

[blacken700]

I do not recall that at all. I recall everyone saying Lehrer let them just go and go.

he's quoting hannity and rush, it's all he knows,can't blame him when that's his new source

[Soul Crusher]

I do not recall that at all. I recall everyone saying Lehrer let them just go and go.

Obama always needs cover from others. 

[Soul Crusher]

Romney For President Announces Military Advisory Council (List at the Link)
Mitt Romney ^ | 17 OCTOBER, 2012 | Mitt Romney
Posted on October 18, 2012 9:05:58 PM EDT by Snuph

Today, Romney for President announced its Military Advisory Council.

“I am deeply honored to have the support ofso many of our most accomplished military leaders,” said Mitt Romney. “Together we will restore our military might and ensure that America can defend and protect our interests, our allies, and our people, both at home and abroad. I will never forget that the greatest responsibility ofan American president is in exercising the role of commander-in-chief. That role is sacred, and when I am president, I will never put my own political interests ahead of our military and our men and women in uniform.”

“I’m proud to be supporting Mitt Romney in this critical election about our nation’s future,” said General Tommy Franks, USA (Ret.), Past Commander, U.S. Central Command. “Governor Romney is committed to restoring America’s leadership role in the world. Instead of playing politics with our military, he will strengthen our defense posture by reversing the President’s devastating defense cuts. The fact of the matter is that we cannot afford another four years of feckless foreign policy. We need level-headed leadership which will protect our interests and defend our values with clarity and without apology.”

“I consider the unprecedented national debt amongst the five greatest threats to the security of our great nation,” said General James Conway, USMC (Ret.), Past Commandant of the Marine Corps. “And yet, I see no indication the current administration, if re-elected, is intent on changing that trajectory. Clearly Defense should bear a portion of the burden in order to regain control of our debt, but the idea of massive military cuts -- at a time of increased global instability—should not even be in the cards. As I listen to Mitt Romney, I am convinced that he 'gets it'.”

Members Of Romney For President Military Advisory Council

(Excerpt) Read more at mittromney.com ...

[avxo]

“Governor Romney is committed to restoring America’s leadership role in the world. Instead of playing politics with our military, he will strengthen our defense posture by reversing the President’s devastating defense cuts.”

I'm wondering which cuts, specifically Franks is referring to.

[Soul Crusher]

Our pick for president: Romney(Orlando Sentinel, endorsed Obama in 2008)
 The Orlando Sentinel ^ | Thursday, October 18, 2012 | House Editorial

Posted on Thursday, October 18, 2012 9:55:21 PM

SNIP

Now the president and his supporters are attacking Romney because his long-term budget blueprint calls for money-saving reforms to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, three of the biggest drivers of deficit spending. Obama would be more credible in critiquing the proposal if he had a serious alternative for bringing entitlement spending under control. He doesn't.

Romney is not our ideal candidate for president. We've been turned off by his appeals to social conservatives and immigration extremists. Like most presidential hopefuls, including Obama four years ago, Romney faces a steep learning curve on foreign policy.

But the core of Romney's campaign platform, his five-point plan, at least shows he understands that reviving the economy and repairing the government's balance sheet are imperative — now, not four years in the future.

Romney has a strong record of leadership to run on. He built a successful business. He rescued the 2002 Winter Olympics from scandal and mismanagement. As governor of Massachusetts, he worked with a Democrat-dominated legislature to close a $3billion budget deficit without borrowing or raising taxes, and pass the health plan that became a national model.

This is Romney's time to lead, again. If he doesn't produce results — even with a hostile Senate — we'll be ready in 2016 to get behind someone else who will.

We reject the innuendo that some critics have heaped on the president. We don't think he's a business-hating socialist. We don't think he's intent on weakening the American military. We don't think he's unpatriotic. And, no, we don't think he was born outside the United States.

But after reflecting on his four years in the White House, we also don't think that he's the best qualified candidate in this race.

We endorse Mitt Romney for president.


(Excerpt) Read more at orlandosentinel.com ...

[MCWAY]

I do not recall that at all. I recall everyone saying Lehrer let them just go and go.

The new format for the presidential debate prompted plenty of partisan debate online — as did the performance of the moderator, Jim Lehrer.

Jim Lehrer explained the rules of the debate to the audience prior to the start of the first presidential debate on Thursday in Denver.

Mr. Lehrer’s light touch was widely criticized during and after the debate on Wednesday night, particularly by Democrats who felt that President Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, effectively moderated the debate himself. Speaking to CNN after the debate, Stephanie Cutter, the president’s deputy campaign manager, said, “I sometimes wondered if we even needed a moderator because we had Mitt Romney. We should rethink that for the next debate.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/us/politics/after-debate-a-harsh-light-falls-on-jim-lehrer.html?_r=0

he's quoting hannity and rush, it's all he knows,can't blame him when that's his new source

Wrong again, Identity-Crisis-Boy. But, thanks for playing. I guess that means you're doubly wrong.

[Soul Crusher]

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121019/OPINION01/210190325/1008/opinion01/Iacocca-America-needs-turnaround-which-why-m-voting-Romney



bbbbooooommmmmm

[Soul Crusher]

Ohio Is Closer than You Think (Superb analysis!)
 National Review Online ^ | 10/20/12 | Josh Jordan

Posted on Saturday, October 20, 2012 10:18:52 AM by

Just a few weeks ago, Ohio was a state that was considered almost every media outlet to be a solid lock for Obama. There’s no need to rehash the actual headlines, but some even suggested Romney give up on Ohio and look elsewhere for a path to victory. Before the first debate, Romney was down 5.6 in RCP’s Buckeye State average. Today he is down 2.5, cutting his deficit by more than half, presumably in large part due to his strong first-debate performance. Here are a few reasons why it’s even closer than that:

Democratic turnout advantage from 2008 probably wasn’t as big as you think: Last cycle was a wave election and Barack Obama took Ohio by 4.6 percent, 51.5 to 46.9. The exit polls showed a split of 39 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans, and 30 percent independents. If that had been the actual turnout, according to exit polls’ measurement of how members of each party said they voted, Obama would have won 52.8 to 45.6, for a 7.2 percent margin victory, substantially bigger than the margin by which he actually won. This means that the exit polls were off a little, which is unsurprising since they are, after all, just polls.

But we have actual vote totals to compare these polls to. If you use the exit-poll numbers for reported voting by party and then look at what kind of a turnout by party you’d need to get to the actual state vote tally, you come out with this breakdown: 37.5 percent Democrats, 32.5 percent Republicans, and 30 percent Independents (that gives you a vote of 51.6 percent for Obama and 46.9 percent for McCain — pretty close to actual results). So while the 2008 exit polls show an eight-point Democrat advantage, in reality it was likely closer to five percent. That is a big difference when analyzing current polls.

Romney is up big with independents: In 2008 Obama beat John McCain by 8 percent among independents in Ohio. Of the seven current RCP polls that give independent numbers, Romney is up by an average of 8.7 percent:

That’s a 16 percent swing in independents toward Romney from 2008′s numbers. If you assume equal turnout in 2012 as 2008 (using my number from above) but take Obama’s 8 percent edge with independents and give it Romney, that 4.6 percent 2008 margin becomes a tie. At that point, Romney would win if he chips away at the five-percent turnout advantage from 2008.

The current poll samples have Democratic turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels: Of the seven current RCP polls in Ohio, the average Democratic advantage in party ID is 5.5 percent. That is, if we assume 2008 advantage was D+5, as explained above, then the average poll in Ohio right now assumes a 2008-level turnout. While anything is possible on November 6, there are not many people on either side thinking Obama can match his 2008 turnout advantage.

Early voting is not as positive for Obama as it was in 2008: This is the last point, but a huge one. Take this quotation, from CNN today: “Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22 percent. Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29 percent.” The current polls have been seriously inflated for Democrats because they’re reporting Obama with 30+ percent leads in early voting (which is then automatically counted in “likely voter” samples), which seems to be vastly overestimating the Democratic advantage among these voters. As CNN explains, Romney is making huge gains from 2008.

Obama won in 2008 largely because of a healthy lead among independents and a highly enthusiastic base’s turning out votes. Right now Romney is leading big with independents, has a more enthusiastic base, and is drawing crowds in Ohio that rival Obama’s. While he is down 2.5 points in the polls, the average poll is assuming 2008 turnout which is unlikely to repeat itself this year. Adding the fact that early voting is trending more Republican than in 2008, there is a lot of reason for optimism that this race is much closer than the current polls suggest. Not bad for a candidate who was declared dead in the state just a few weeks ago.

[Soul Crusher]

Ohio Is Closer than You Think (Superb analysis!)
 National Review Online ^ | 10/20/12 | Josh Jordan

Posted on Saturday, October 20, 2012 10:18:52 AM by

Just a few weeks ago, Ohio was a state that was considered almost every media outlet to be a solid lock for Obama. There’s no need to rehash the actual headlines, but some even suggested Romney give up on Ohio and look elsewhere for a path to victory. Before the first debate, Romney was down 5.6 in RCP’s Buckeye State average. Today he is down 2.5, cutting his deficit by more than half, presumably in large part due to his strong first-debate performance. Here are a few reasons why it’s even closer than that:

Democratic turnout advantage from 2008 probably wasn’t as big as you think: Last cycle was a wave election and Barack Obama took Ohio by 4.6 percent, 51.5 to 46.9. The exit polls showed a split of 39 percent Democrats, 31 percent Republicans, and 30 percent independents. If that had been the actual turnout, according to exit polls’ measurement of how members of each party said they voted, Obama would have won 52.8 to 45.6, for a 7.2 percent margin victory, substantially bigger than the margin by which he actually won. This means that the exit polls were off a little, which is unsurprising since they are, after all, just polls.

But we have actual vote totals to compare these polls to. If you use the exit-poll numbers for reported voting by party and then look at what kind of a turnout by party you’d need to get to the actual state vote tally, you come out with this breakdown: 37.5 percent Democrats, 32.5 percent Republicans, and 30 percent Independents (that gives you a vote of 51.6 percent for Obama and 46.9 percent for McCain — pretty close to actual results). So while the 2008 exit polls show an eight-point Democrat advantage, in reality it was likely closer to five percent. That is a big difference when analyzing current polls.

Romney is up big with independents: In 2008 Obama beat John McCain by 8 percent among independents in Ohio. Of the seven current RCP polls that give independent numbers, Romney is up by an average of 8.7 percent:

That’s a 16 percent swing in independents toward Romney from 2008′s numbers. If you assume equal turnout in 2012 as 2008 (using my number from above) but take Obama’s 8 percent edge with independents and give it Romney, that 4.6 percent 2008 margin becomes a tie. At that point, Romney would win if he chips away at the five-percent turnout advantage from 2008.

The current poll samples have Democratic turnout matching or exceeding 2008 levels: Of the seven current RCP polls in Ohio, the average Democratic advantage in party ID is 5.5 percent. That is, if we assume 2008 advantage was D+5, as explained above, then the average poll in Ohio right now assumes a 2008-level turnout. While anything is possible on November 6, there are not many people on either side thinking Obama can match his 2008 turnout advantage.

Early voting is not as positive for Obama as it was in 2008: This is the last point, but a huge one. Take this quotation, from CNN today: “Four years ago, Democrats made up about 42 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans made up 22 percent. Through Wednesday, however, the margin has narrowed: Democrats account for 36 percent of the early and absentee vote while Republicans make up for 29 percent.” The current polls have been seriously inflated for Democrats because they’re reporting Obama with 30+ percent leads in early voting (which is then automatically counted in “likely voter” samples), which seems to be vastly overestimating the Democratic advantage among these voters. As CNN explains, Romney is making huge gains from 2008.

Obama won in 2008 largely because of a healthy lead among independents and a highly enthusiastic base’s turning out votes. Right now Romney is leading big with independents, has a more enthusiastic base, and is drawing crowds in Ohio that rival Obama’s. While he is down 2.5 points in the polls, the average poll is assuming 2008 turnout which is unlikely to repeat itself this year. Adding the fact that early voting is trending more Republican than in 2008, there is a lot of reason for optimism that this race is much closer than the current polls suggest. Not bad for a candidate who was declared dead in the state just a few weeks ago.

bump

[Soul Crusher]

Election 2012: Wisconsin President Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (look at early voting)
 www.rasmussenreports.com ^ | 10/20/12 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on Saturday, October 20, 2012 5:32:14 PM by personalaccts

Election 2012: Wisconsin President Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 48% in Politics.Related Articles Daily Presidential Tracking Poll 2012 Electoral College Scoreboard Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46% Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46% Missouri: Romney 54%, Obama 43% Virginia: Romney 50%, Obama 47% As Romney Gains, Senate Remains Challenging for GOP By Scott Rasmussen

Friday, October 19, 2012

Wisconsin remains a two-point race following Tuesday night’s presidential debate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama with 50% support, while Mitt Romney earns 48% of the vote. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama defeated Republican John McCain 56% to 42% in Wisconsin in 2008.

The president posted a similar 51% to 49% lead in the state earlier this month. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.

Ninety-seven percent (97%) of likely Wisconsin voters say they are certain to vote, and the president leads 50% to 48% among this group.

Wisconsin allows early voting, and among those who have already voted, it’s Romney 54%, Obama 43%. Of those who have yet to vote, 90% say they’ve already decided whom they will support. Obama leads 50% to 49% among these voters.

Both candidates draw more than 90% support from voters in their respective parties in Wisconsin. The president leads by 11 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Among all voters in the state, Romney has a 50% to 45% advantage when it comes to whom voters trust more to deal with the economy. Voters are almost evenly divided over whom they trust more to handle national security matters: 47% say Obama, 46% Romney. Among voters nationally, Romney is trusted more by seven points on the economy, while the two candidates run nearly even when it comes to national security.

How did you do in this week’s Rasmussen Challenge? Check the leaderboard.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Thirteen percent (13%) of Wisconsin voters give the U.S. economy good marks, while 44% rate it as poor. Forty-two percent (42%) say the economy is getting better, but 36% think it’s getting worse.

In reacting to the nation’s current economic problems, 39% worry that the federal government will do too much, but slightly more (43%) fear the government will not do enough. Nationally, voters are more evenly divided. Sixty-nine percent (69%) think the government should cut spending to help the economy, while just 16% feel more spending is called for. That’s in line with voter attitudes nationwide.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Wisconsin voters correctly understand that the United States spends more on the military and national security than any other nation in the world. Eleven percent (11%) don’t think that’s true, but 33% aren’t sure.

Thirty-five percent (35%) say the government spends too much on the military and national security, while 22% think there isn’t enough defense spending. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the level of spending in this area is about right. This is a more negative assessment of military and national security spending than is found nationally.

Fifty-one percent of voters in Wisconsin approve of the job the president is doing, while 49% disapprove. This includes 35% who Strongly Approve and 42% who Strongly Disapprove, giving the president a slightly better job approval rating than he earns nationally.

Romney is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 50%. This includes 34% who have a Very Favorable opinion of him and 34% with a Very Unfavorable one.

In addition to Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia are Toss-Ups. Obama is ahead in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Washington. Romney leads in Arizona, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

in Politics.

[Soul Crusher]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2947912/posts

FL going romney 

[Soul Crusher]

Rasmussen Daily Swing State: R: 50% O:46%
 Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/21/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on Sunday, October 21, 2012 10:07:03 AM by SoftwareEngineer

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.


(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...





LANDSLIDE COMING

[Soul Crusher]

Computer model predicts bad news for Obama in Broward, Palm Beach counties
 South Florida Sun Sentinel ^ | October 21, 2012 | Anthony Man

Posted on Sunday, October 21, 2012 10:40:42 AM by ConservativeStatement

Computer modeling of economic and political factors by the research firm Moody's Analytics predicts President Barack Obama will perform so badly in the Democratic strongholds of Broward and Palm Beach counties that he'll lose the state's 29 electoral votes on Nov. 6.

Democrats and Republicans agree Obama must run up big margins in the three big South Florida counties if he has any hope of offsetting Republican territory elsewhere and winning statewide.

That won't happen, according to the Moody's Analytics forecast, which projects Obama winning 56.3 percent of the vote in Broward, 50.8 percent in Palm Beach County and 58.7 percent in Miami-Dade County.


(Excerpt) Read more at sun-sentinel.com ...







LANDSLIDE COMING

[Dos Equis]

Does not look good for the president. 

[GigantorX]

Does not look good for the president. 

Further polling (recent as 10/15 - 10/22) is out and the swing state leads, which are all within the M.O.E., are shrinking.

Romney has a healthy lead among national independants and white voters.

This is going to be close.

[MCWAY]

Further polling (recent as 10/15 - 10/22) is out and the swing state leads, which are all within the M.O.E., are shrinking.

Romney has a healthy lead among national independants and white voters.

This is going to be close.

If Romney indeed has a healthy lead among independents and white voters, it will NOT be close. Romney will beat Obama to a pulp.

[Dos Equis]

Further polling (recent as 10/15 - 10/22) is out and the swing state leads, which are all within the M.O.E., are shrinking.

Romney has a healthy lead among national independants and white voters.

This is going to be close.

I think it will be close, but at this point Romney appears to be in the driver's seat. 

[240 is Back]

Ohio Is Closer than You Think (Superb analysis!)

Romney has never led in the RCP average in Ohio.   not yet.

if he wins ohio, he wins the election.  Lose ohio, he loses election.

it is as simple as that.  he will probably have FL.  But without OH, he loses.  WISC and IOWA and NH are gonna be obama states, and he's gonna steal penn, be real about it dude.

OHIO or bust.  that's it.  Romney needs it.