The 2024 General Election

[Moontrane]

Being the incumbent, they don't have to have a strong field.  Historically, the sitting party never really fields strong candidates for a POTUS reelection year.

The Democratic party is not the incumbent president - Biden is.  There is no passing of the torch to Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg, or another without a primary.

Though I look more forward to the Republican primary, I will delight in a possible (and I hope likely) Democratic primary.

[LurkerNoMore]

The Democratic party is not the incumbent president - Biden is.  There is no passing of the torch to Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg, or another without a primary.

Though I look more forward to the Republican primary, I will delight in a possible (and I hope likely) Democratic primary.

Not sure what you are getting at here as this is pretty much what I said.  The incumbent rarely sees challengers from his own party during a reelection year.  While there may be some, it hardly ever results in a primary. 

[Dos Equis]

Paul Ryan Will Skip Republican National Convention if Trump Wins Primary 
WENDELL HUSEBØ
25 Feb 2023
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2023/02/25/paul-ryan-will-skip-republican-national-convention-if-trump-wins-primary/

[Dos Equis]

First GOP Presidential Primary Debate To Take Place In Milwaukee
RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said the debate’s criteria had not been decided yet.
By Shruti Rajkumar
Feb 23, 2023
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rnc-primary-presidential-debate-2024-election_n_63f7fd9ce4b0a1ee14992fda

[Dos Equis]

I hope he runs.

Florida Governor DeSantis To Visit Iowa Next Week, Ahead Of Expected 2024 Announcement
Mike Jenkins March 2, 2023
https://www.tampafp.com/florida-governor-desantis-to-visit-iowa-next-week/

[Humble Narcissist]

Paul Ryan Will Skip Republican National Convention if Trump Wins Primary 
WENDELL HUSEBØ
25 Feb 2023
https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2023/02/25/paul-ryan-will-skip-republican-national-convention-if-trump-wins-primary/

Oh no! They should just cancel the whole thing if Paul won't go.

[Primemuscle]

Trump needs to tone down his attacks on those are or may run against him and won’t fly this time. He pissed me off when he started attacking DeSantis. Totally uncalled for

Sooner or later, he pisses everybody off... even The Scott.  The guy never knew how or when to keep his mouth shut. Most of the scandals are his own doing.

Trump is scheduled to go to trial in April for allegedly raping the journalist E. Jean Carroll in a high-end Manhattan department store in the 1990s. Trump’s lawyers are trying to keep that jury from hearing him boast about sexual harassment, “when you’re a star, they let you do it… you can do anything… grab 'em by the pussy”. This is a great example of something he should never have said.

[Primemuscle]

And Vivek Ramaswamy just threw his hat in the ring.

Vivek might think about changing his last name. Can you imagine a President Ramaswamy. The U.S. is a melting pot, no argument about this. His parents emigrated from Vadakkencherry, Palakkad, Kerala, India. Being as how he is a U.S. citizen, he meets that qualification. 

[Dos Equis]

Trump Jumps To 28-Point Lead Over DeSantis As MAGA Rallies For 45
View Source | March 21, 2023
https://www.offthepress.com/trump-jumps-to-28-point-lead-over-desantis-as-maga-rallies-for-45/

[Agnostic007]

Trump Jumps To 28-Point Lead Over DeSantis As MAGA Rallies For 45
View Source | March 21, 2023
https://www.offthepress.com/trump-jumps-to-28-point-lead-over-desantis-as-maga-rallies-for-45/

That's surprising to me. Wouldn't have suspected such a lead. Good for Trump

[Dos Equis]

That's surprising to me. Wouldn't have suspected such a lead. Good for Trump

Nothing surprising about it.

[Dos Equis]

I prefer DeSantis, but I cannot see him or anyone else beating Trump in the primary. 

Trump surges to biggest 2024 lead yet, two times over DeSantis
by Paul Bedard, Washington Secrets Columnist |
March 21, 2023
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/trump-surges-to-biggest-2024-lead-yet-2x-over-desantis

[Dos Equis]

DeSantis privately acknowledges he will run for president in 2024: report
By Victor Nava
March 10, 2023
https://nypost.com/2023/03/10/desantis-privately-acknowledges-he-will-run-for-president-in-2024-report/

[Moontrane]

I prefer DeSantis, but I cannot see him or anyone else beating Trump in the primary. 

Trump surges to biggest 2024 lead yet, two times over DeSantis
by Paul Bedard, Washington Secrets Columnist |
March 21, 2023
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/trump-surges-to-biggest-2024-lead-yet-2x-over-desantis

No disagreement but an observation: Giuliani was leading in the polls throughout 2007, then crashed and burned by December.

As a former president, Trump has advantages (and disadvantages) other candidate don't have, but his lead could vaporize even before the primaries.

This is gonna be an interesting year. 

[Dos Equis]

No disagreement but an observation: Giuliani was leading in the polls throughout 2007, then crashed and burned by December.

As a former president, Trump has advantages (and disadvantages) other candidate don't have, but his lead could vaporize even before the primaries.

This is gonna be an interesting year.

Yes I agree there is precedent where candidates were frontrunners and wound up losing.  I just think Trump is in a category all by himself.  The normal rules and analysis do not apply to him. 

And the thing that really bothers me is I think Biden can beat Trump again in 2024.  But I think DeSantis would beat Biden. 

[Agnostic007]

Yes I agree there is precedent where candidates were frontrunners and wound up losing.  I just think Trump is in a category all by himself.  The normal rules and analysis do not apply to him. 

And the thing that really bothers me is I think Biden can beat Trump again in 2024.  But I think DeSantis would beat Biden.

I'll go out on a limb here. Just my view, but typically, most Americans don't get so involved in politics that they storm the capital. Most don't even get involved to the point they buy a hat, t shirt, put flags on their pickup trucks. MOST just go to work, watch an ocassional news story, have an idea of which party they will vote for and go on with their lives. Which is one reason the "Look how many people showed up to Trumps rallies verses Bidens rallies" didn't hold water with me. Almost all the people I know personally ,voted, I don't know anyone who attended a rally, but they were worked up enough to make sure they voted. So I suspect Trumps supporters are more vocal, more outspoken and more visible than Desantes supporters, but I think by the primarires, Desantes will beat Trump. I never respond to calls from politcal pollsters. I suspect most normal people don't. Trumpsters do... and it may give a false picture. Just my opinion

[Moontrane]

I'll go out on a limb here. Just my view, but typically, most Americans don't get so involved in politics that they storm the capital. Most don't even get involved to the point they buy a hat, t shirt, put flags on their pickup trucks. MOST just go to work, watch an ocassional news story, have an idea of which party they will vote for and go on with their lives. Which is one reason the "Look how many people showed up to Trumps rallies verses Bidens rallies" didn't hold water with me. Almost all the people I know personally ,voted, I don't know anyone who attended a rally, but they were worked up enough to make sure they voted. So I suspect Trumps supporters are more vocal, more outspoken and more visible than Desantes supporters, but I think by the primarires, Desantes will beat Trump. I never respond to calls from politcal pollsters. I suspect most normal people don't. Trumpsters do... and it may give a false picture. Just my opinion

A friend of mine was stuck in traffic because of folks showing up at a Trump rally in 2015.  He couldn’t believe it, and neither could I at the time.  I was recovering from injuries in the summer and fall, so I didn’t pay much attention until late 2015.  The man can draw a crowd.

[Agnostic007]

A friend of mine was stuck in traffic because of folks showing up at a Trump rally in 2015.  He couldn’t believe it, and neither could I at the time.  I was recovering from injuries in the summer and fall, so I didn’t pay much attention until late 2015.  The man can draw a crowd.

No doubt. He is hugely entertaining even for me. After a lifetime of seeing polished speeches from professional politicians it was unique to see someone just get up there and wing it. Say what is on their minds, facts and feelings be damned. And he connected with a lot of people while running for his 1st term. He sold himself as anti establishment and he was going to get things done etc... Strong message.
But by his second term run, a lot of those people were wary of the "seat of the pants" management style and temper. Of course he has a solid 35% base that will vote for him come hell or high water.. but enough moderate republicans, independents etc were wary enough that it lended to him losing the election. But I'll admit, if he's giving a televised speech, for me it's like hearing screeching brakes at an intersection, I can't help but watch.

[Dos Equis]

I'll go out on a limb here. Just my view, but typically, most Americans don't get so involved in politics that they storm the capital. Most don't even get involved to the point they buy a hat, t shirt, put flags on their pickup trucks. MOST just go to work, watch an ocassional news story, have an idea of which party they will vote for and go on with their lives. Which is one reason the "Look how many people showed up to Trumps rallies verses Bidens rallies" didn't hold water with me. Almost all the people I know personally ,voted, I don't know anyone who attended a rally, but they were worked up enough to make sure they voted. So I suspect Trumps supporters are more vocal, more outspoken and more visible than Desantes supporters, but I think by the primarires, Desantes will beat Trump. I never respond to calls from politcal pollsters. I suspect most normal people don't. Trumpsters do... and it may give a false picture. Just my opinion

The Trump rallies definitely measured voter enthusiasm in 2016, which was directly related to voter turnout.  They were massive.  So I disagree that his rallies were not at least partly predictive of the outcome. 

The only thing that changed in 2020 was Covid. 

I'm not seeing a scenario where DeSantis beats Trump.  We've already seen the establishment get behind a candidate (Jeb Bush) and Trump killed him.  DeSantis is no Jeb Bush, but I don't think the big money getting behind DeSantis will lead to a different outcome.  Trump's support in the GOP is just too strong. 

I went through a running analysis of the numbers in 2016 showing that the majority of GOP voters did not support Trump during the primaries, and he still won. 

There are a lot of talking heads trying to speak it into existence, but I will believe it when I see it.

[The Scott]

The Trump rallies definitely measured voter enthusiasm in 2016, which was directly related to voter turnout.  They were massive.  So I disagree that his rallies were not at least partly predictive of the outcome. 

The only thing that changed in 2020 was Covid. 

I'm not seeing a scenario where DeSantis beats Trump.  We've already seen the establishment get behind a candidate (Jeb Bush) and Trump killed him.  DeSantis is no Jeb Bush, but I don't think the big money getting behind DeSantis will lead to a different outcome.  Trump's support in the GOP is just too strong. 

I went through a running analysis of the numbers in 2016 showing that the majority of GOP voters did not support Trump during the primaries, and he still won. 

There are a lot of talking heads trying to speak it into existence, but I will believe it when I see it.

Now, more than ever, real Americans HATE the Democratic Party and know they stole the 2020 election by falsification and electronic means.  The filth that posts otherwise knows their pets are coming for them.  Filthy, foul, fetid pedophile supporters.  That is the Democratic party and its voters.  Especially so the outright racist pigs the disparage black people just for being black here and the proof is in LNM's posting of  his thoughts on them.  He's a genuine Democrat.  Clueless to what really goes in and in that is the truth of why Trump is hated by them and all usurpers of Civilization.

[Dos Equis]

Now, more than ever, real Americans HATE the Democratic Party and know they stole the 2020 election by falsification and electronic means.  The filth that posts otherwise knows their pets are coming for them.  Filthy, foul, fetid pedophile supporters.  That is the Democratic party and its voters.  Especially so the outright racist pigs the disparage black people just for being black here and the proof is in LNM's posting of  his thoughts on them.  He's a genuine Democrat.  Clueless to what really goes in and in that is the truth of why Trump is hated by them and all usurpers of Civilization.

I don't know how to really analyze the races anymore.  I would have never predicted that Joe Biden would get elected.  Even Democrats repeatedly rejected him.  Yet here he is, literally causing the death of American service members, crashing the economy, surrendering the border, repeatedly lying, etc.  And he could very well be reelected. 

[Primemuscle]

A friend of mine was stuck in traffic because of folks showing up at a Trump rally in 2015.  He couldn’t believe it, and neither could I at the time.  I was recovering from injuries in the summer and fall, so I didn’t pay much attention until late 2015.  The man can could draw a crowd.

[Agnostic007]

The Trump rallies definitely measured voter enthusiasm in 2016, which was directly related to voter turnout.  They were massive.  So I disagree that his rallies were not at least partly predictive of the outcome. 

The only thing that changed in 2020 was Covid. 

I'm not seeing a scenario where DeSantis beats Trump.  We've already seen the establishment get behind a candidate (Jeb Bush) and Trump killed him.  DeSantis is no Jeb Bush, but I don't think the big money getting behind DeSantis will lead to a different outcome.  Trump's support in the GOP is just too strong. 

I went through a running analysis of the numbers in 2016 showing that the majority of GOP voters did not support Trump during the primaries, and he still won. 

There are a lot of talking heads trying to speak it into existence, but I will believe it when I see it.

You're a reasonable guy and I tend to enjoy your posts, whether we see eye to eye on things. So in a spirit of fun, lets design a bet that's easily determined... For example, I bet $100 (Payable via venmo, zelle or paypal) that if both Desantis and Trump run, Desantis will ultimately beat Trump.  I can't help feeling that from 2015 to now, the majority of Republicans have figured Trump out and will prefer Desantis even if they admire Trump.

[Moontrane]

Well, let's see how many people show up in Waco tomorrow.

[Moontrane]

Only a dozen showed up - he's lost his mojo.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1639749799304937472