i know everybody talks that Trout is the automatic. But if you look at the stats right now...Donaldson lead in basically EVERY offensive category.
average Donaldson .301
Trout .294
HR Donaldson 39( hit 40th tonight)
Trout 40
RBI Donaldson 120
Trout 87
Runs Scored Donaldson 117
Trout 97
Slug % Donaldson .574
Trout .587
I dont get to see a lot of Angels games...but Donaldson has been a highlight reel all season on the field.
thoughts?
So...the general consensus I've heard around the baseball-o-sphere leads towards Donaldson, so I don't think the prevailing thought is Trout is automatic.
But you say Donaldson leads in almost every offensive category, and I disagree with that if you look at it through a more modern view.
Donaldson's slash line (OBP / SLG / OPS) is .371 / .574 / .984
Trout's is .397 / .587 / .984
So right off the bat, Trout has a higher OBP and Slugging %......and you also posted that Trout is leading in HR, albeit by a small margin.
Donaldson is leading in batting average. This stat is inherently flawed, because it gives the same value to HR / 3b / 2b as it does to singles, and those hits are more valuable than a single. Batting average also ignores walks, which are valuable as well. And the lead is negligible anyway - if you pro-rate Trout's 540 AB vs Donaldson's 589 the difference in the amount of hits that would separate them is 4 total hits (actually 3.5). Trout gets on base more and has higher production....much more valuable.
As for the RBI lead, that is a product of opportunity, as the batter can't control who gets on base ahead of them. Donaldson plays on the number one offense in baseball (by far) so he's going to have many more people on base when he's up.
If you get into some advanced metrics:
OPS+ (this attempts to equalize the stat for variables - like adjusting for the park someone plays in - someone in Fenway or Coors, SHOULD hit better, for example) 100 is league average
Trout OPS+ 175
Donaldson OPS+ 157
wRC+ (attempts to measure a player's value on how many runs they "Created"...adjusted for park)
Trout wRC+ 171
Donaldson wRC+ 156
WAR (an attempt at at "all encompassing" stat, including defensive metrics of which I am NOT a fan - many flaws, even admitted by the creator of the stat......really doesn't show decent value until a three year sample)
Donaldson 8.2
Trout 8.1
Very close, but Donaldson beats Trout because of the defensive metrics if you look at the splits.
My conclusion:
Both players are having insane seasons. I think the writers will give it to Donaldson since Toronto is the hottest/best team in baseball in the second half.
But I think Trout was robbed in his first two years.....and I LOVE dynasties, and think it would have been the greatest thing if a player won the MVP in his first four seasons. It would be unprecedented, but I truly think Trout deserves it. It's only been four years and longevity is key, but he is on track to be one of the greatest players ever.
I think they are both worthy, but Trout is just a bit better this year. He's going to lose because he doesn't play on as good a team as Donaldson, and I think that's wrong. Just like when Cabrerra won the MVP when Trout had a better year, but the writers determined a rare event was more valuable, when Trout put up equal/better numbers, and was stellar in defense and baserunning too, whereas Cabrerra could barely run and was a butcher in the field.
Sportswriters are getting better (gave Felix the Cy when he deserved it, even with low wins) but they're still not there yet.