Stock Market discussion

[Slapper]

The market is going to take a hit regardless of US/China relations.

The bull market has exceeded all expectations in duration.

Make sure you are diversified to the extent you can survive a 50% drop in your equity portfolio without compromising your retirement or other goals.

It's coming.

Oh, I know it's coming, but it won't come until the Dow Jones and the other markets reach stooopid levels. Like 43,000 for DJI and 3,600 for the S&P. Markets don't fold from normal levels, they capitulate from all time highs. Not just barely all time highs, from "holly shit! 50% up in 2 months" up.

After that, it'll be a 1929.

Elliot wave-wise we're on a wave 5 (grand super cycle) of 5 (super cycle) of 5 (cycle) of 5 (primary). It's like top of the 9th, two outs, one down and all bases loaded and the next guy up is Barry Bonds.

Now, for the market to get to stooopid levels, we need a trade deal. I think the situation is deteriorating so fast in HK that Xi will want to meet with Trump soon. I see them signing an agreement right after the UN General Assembly in September.

They have to. Both of their mandates depend on it.

[IRON CROSS]

When do you fellas reckon it'll be over?

The markets are taking a HIT.

Depends on situation in Hong Kong 

[IroNat]

There is always something that sets off a market crash.

Unfortunately it usually seems to come from something you didn't see, or might have been aware of only in a vague way, something that causes major institutions to dump stocks in a big way.  Panic selling.

It has to be that way because otherwise the market would adjust gradually as it does with known variables.

Market prices reflect publicly known information.

The US/China trade war is known information and most likely would not cause a major swing in the markets.

[Irongrip400]

If the market crashes, then the government should unleash the infrastructure bill and start taking care of all of our public works projects. They need it, and it will keep things going until the market recovers, keeping us out full on depression.

[SOMEPARTS]

Dow down 800. First time anybody on mainstream financial news has spoken about a 2/10 bond yield inversion in probably ages.

[loco]

Dow down 800. First time anybody on mainstream financial news has spoken about a 2/10 bond yield inversion in probably ages.

Big drop.  Trump will tweet something, or the Fed will say something, and it will jump 900.  US markets open in one hour.

[loco]

It's a joke because you are so by the book.

Marty Champions sez the way to greys is eating red meat and watching the markets all day. 

No more "by the book" than you probably are with real estate investing.   

[bigkid]

There is much gratification (and peace of mind) in having a substantial amount of money saved even if getting there was challenging.

Lesson learned. My parents made no financial plans for the future. They lived excessively well as long as my stepdad was able to work. When he no longer was, they became paupers. 

Of course.  But that's delayed gratification.  Society is now instant gratification.  Why save for old age when you can buy $14 avocado toast and post it on insta. 

[loco]

Of course.  But that's delayed gratification.  Society is now instant gratification.  Why save for old age when you can buy $14 avocado toast and post it on insta.  

Or wait in line 2 hours to buy a $20 bagel

[bigkid]

Or wait in line 2 hours to buy a $20 bagel

Jesus.  Generation nothingness at work.

[IroNat]

Market finished up.

No worries.

Make sure you are diversified sufficiently so that your future plans can survive a 50% drop in your equity portfolio.

[FitnessFrenzy]

[Irongrip400]

Dow down 800. First time anybody on mainstream financial news has spoken about a 2/10 bond yield inversion in probably ages.

The 2/5 inverted a while back and it said average was 26 months before the start of a recession. That was less than a year ago.

[SOMEPARTS]

The 2/5 inverted a while back and it said average was 26 months before the start of a recession. That was less than a year ago.

Yes, for once there seems to be an over-coverage of a down trend. Most of the financial channels are endless cheerleaders of the bull market.

The historical timing puts us right about election time. 

[Irongrip400]

Yes, for once there seems to be an over-coverage of a down trend. Most of the financial channels are endless cheerleaders of the bull market.

The historical timing puts us right about election time. 

If the market crashes, then the government should unleash the infrastructure bill and start taking care of all of our public works projects. They need it, and it will keep things going until the market recovers, keeping us out full on depression.

Which should get us another few years of life support.

[loco]

401(k), IRA millionaires at Fidelity surpass record highs in the second quarter

August 21, 2019

The ranks of 401(k) and IRA millionaires again hit a record high in the second quarter at Fidelity Investments after stocks fully recovered from their losses suffered at the end of 2018.

The number of investors with at least $1 million in their 401(k) accounts rose to 196,000 at the end of the second quarter, up from 180,000 the previous quarter and surpassing the previous record of 187,400 reached in the third quarter of 2018, according to Fidelity.

The tally of IRA millionaires increased to 179,700 from 168,100 in the first quarter. The prior high was 170,400, also achieved in the third quarter of last year. Short for individual retirement account, an IRA is a tax-deferred personal retirement plan sponsored by the government.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/401-k-ira-millionaires-fidelity-040114244.html

[ESFitness]

It's funny watching CNN jump all over a 500 point drop when the Dow is over 20k. A -500 day when it was 12k is a lot different from a -500 day when it's 22k.

As a non-trader I suppose I should be happy with a bull market, but as a trader I would much rather trade in a bear market and short everything I could. Esp the 2-3x ETFs... So long as I had 25k or whatever to cover my shorts. I miss those days, but I haven't paid attention to the market since 2011. Doubt I've even seen more than a handful of Fast Money episodes since then either.

[Campeon Del Mundo]

    With more Fed rate cuts coming down i wouldn't be surprised to see the stock market hit new highs ...

but next year we will have a mother of all crashes and go into a depression ...

[Megalodon]

They'll label this a hate crime. They're the only ones allowed to manipulate the market. 

Reddit moderator slams Wall Street ‘fat cats’ as GameStop’s wild ride continues — ‘They hate that you played by the rules and still won’


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/reddit-moderator-slams-wall-street-fat-cats-as-gamestops-wild-ride-continues-they-hate-that-you-played-by-the-rules-and-still-won-2021-01-25

https://www.pcgamer.com/reddit-messes-with-investors-by-driving-gamestop-stock-price-to-record-heights/

[SOMEPARTS]

They'll label this a hate crime. They're the only ones allowed to manipulate the market. 

Reddit moderator slams Wall Street ‘fat cats’ as GameStop’s wild ride continues — ‘They hate that you played by the rules and still won’


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/reddit-moderator-slams-wall-street-fat-cats-as-gamestops-wild-ride-continues-they-hate-that-you-played-by-the-rules-and-still-won-2021-01-25

https://www.pcgamer.com/reddit-messes-with-investors-by-driving-gamestop-stock-price-to-record-heights/

You could add a 4th tile there for r/bitcoin. 

[oldtimer1]

My prediction. When the big blue states end their shutdowns and plenty of their governors are all talking about it the economy will soar as well as the stock market. NY, Illinois, Michigan and California are all talking about ending their shutdowns now that Biden is in. Their covid statistics manipulation is suddenly favorable. Other blue states will soon be talking about opening too like NJ. The economy will roar for about a year or two max. Make no mistake about it. Democrats will destroy our energy independence quickly and the rest of the economy destruction tools will be in place like taxes and regulations.  Once the sell off of stocks happen it will be horrific. People will lose half their future savings. The dollar could even be devalued. Democrats will of course blame Trump instead of their failures. 

[SOMEPARTS]

My prediction. When the big blue states end their shutdowns and plenty of their governors are all talking about it the economy will soar as well as the stock market. NY, Illinois, Michigan and California are all talking about ending their shutdowns now that Biden is in. Their covid statistics manipulation is suddenly favorable. Other blue states will soon be talking about opening too like NJ. The economy will roar for about a year or two max. Make no mistake about it. Democrats will destroy our energy independence quickly and the rest of the economy destruction tools will be in place like taxes and regulations.  Once the sell off of stocks happen it will be horrific. People will lose half their future savings. The dollar could even be devalued. Democrats will of course blame Trump instead of their failures.

With half the country potentially sitting on their wallets we shall see.

[Moontrane]

My prediction. When the big blue states end their shutdowns and plenty of their governors are all talking about it the economy will soar as well as the stock market. NY, Illinois, Michigan and California are all talking about ending their shutdowns now that Biden is in. Their covid statistics manipulation is suddenly favorable. Other blue states will soon be talking about opening too like NJ. The economy will roar for about a year or two max. Make no mistake about it. Democrats will destroy our energy independence quickly and the rest of the economy destruction tools will be in place like taxes and regulations.  Once the sell off of stocks happen it will be horrific. People will lose half their future savings. The dollar could even be devalued. Democrats will of course blame Trump instead of their failures.

I agree with the first half.  But if Republicans get majorities in Congress after 2022, Harris will reduced to executive orders and actions (still very potentially damaging).  We never escaped the "new norm" of sluggish GDP growth, so I'll be paying close attention to the market as it roars.  I captured a 35% gain in the 13 months after Trump was elected and I'm a bit sanguine that we might see something like that again.   

Do not take financial advice from me or other strangers. 

[SOMEPARTS]

But if Republicans get majorities in Congress after 2022

Ha, not likely.

[Megalodon]

You could add a 4th tile there for r/bitcoin. 

So true.   



Here's the media living up to expectations. They're like a snake that considers any resistance to the coil they're wrapping around our necks as hate.

"Stay away from money, that's for us." They'll ban regular folks from buying stocks if they're too successful.