Fed cuts the Funds Rate 3/4 of a Point

[SirTraps]

exactly right 240.

         This is truly the worst administration in history.  I am a republican, but at this point i either wont be voting or i will vote dem just to get these corrupt people out of office. 

        The media enabling and lying is disgusting.

[Stu]

that depends on what definition of  a recession that you want to use

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&defl=en&q=define:recession&sa=X&oi=glossary_definition&ct=title

Michigan unemployment is about 8%..that is mostly due to the automotive industry but still

and the fucking govenment thinks that a $250 check is the answer...fucking genius..

I like this one: The decline in sea level before a tsunami. Recession is a natural warning sign that a tsunami is approaching.

I don't mind getting wet, I just don't want to be homeless and unemployed.

[240 is Back]

exactly right 240.

         This is truly the worst administration in history.  I am a republican, but at this point i either wont be voting or i will vote dem just to get these corrupt people out of office. 

        The media enabling and lying is disgusting.

Well, the media has always 'played ball'.

And in the longer run, this period isn't all that bad.

We spent 4.5 tril, and we gained contorl of 80% worth of iraq's 50 to 75 tril worth of oil.

In the biggest scheme, we did damn good.  It's just tough to see it happening.  In 3 years, Prez Hilary will have taxed the shit outta the rich (well, a little bit).  The war will be scaled down maye 75%.  And we'll start to turn it around.  

China is lending us all this $, but they know that those trillions mean naught if the dollar fails.  Nobody wants that.  All the drama we're seeing today will solve itself in a few years.  Everyone got rich and fat for the last 7 years.  Nobody really thought it would last forever, didja?

The victims here are those who thought it would last forever.  Those who are barely making rent now on a house they can't afford.  They're about to see taxes jump as their wages decrease, and they're going to sell their house at a fraction about the same time they realize they'll be working an add'l ten years to make up for what their 401k will lose in 08.

[Matt C]

That is the situation we are in.  Collapse is inevitable.

It's like a game of musical chairs - as long as we keep playing, no one loses. 

[SirTraps]

you keep repeating we have 80% of Iraqs oil as if that is a permanent thing    Study some history.

         Its a waste of money, down the rat hole and it has made us and the world less secure. 

       

[G o a t b o y]

Economies are cyclical... we've walked this road many times before.  Nothing new under the sun here.  All you have to do is study your history and take note of where the opportunities were last time we were here.

[240 is Back]

It's like a game of musical chairs - as long as we keep playing, no one loses. 

Yes, we have 9 trillion in the debt column.

But what do we have in the asset column?
We have good relationships with most nations on earth.
we have control over tens of tril worth of iraqi oil.
we have control over ten tril in afghan oil.
we may have control over Iran's vast stores.

Don't get me wrong - bankruptcy does happen - mex and rus in 95 and 98 - but I don't think it'll happen here - too much of the world - including iraqi oil 0 is based in dollars.  This is cycliacal, just the first time many of us are sitting thru it.

I'm all about CTs and the sky is falling, etc.  I just don't think it'll happen here.  yes, we need a recession to stop the war profiteers and those milking our treasury dry.  Otherwise, they'd do it forever.... 12 tril debt... 15 tril... 18 tril... etc.  This is the system's way of saying "slow down mister".  And it'll trail off right when bush leaves office.  Thise lets the repubs, in 2012, blame Hilary for the 4 years of high taxes she'll have to do to save the economy.

[Matt C]

we have control over tens of tril worth of iraqi oil.

SirTraps says otherwise.

[240 is Back]

you keep repeating we have 80% of Iraqs oil as if that is a permanent thing    Study some history.

         Its a waste of money, down the rat hole and it has made us and the world less secure. 

       

It is a permanent thing.  Law is written so that neither al-Maliki's successors, nor Bush's, can change it.  It's a permanent agreement, supported by permanent bases in the region.  Not that any prez would walk away from that much oil lol... aside from Ron Paul... but google it.. the deal is permanent and won't be 'undone' by future admins.  And we have the bases there to ensure Iraq never gets froggy and decides to ask us to leave.

[240 is Back]

SirTraps says otherwise.

He can do what he pleases.  It's all out there, and no one in washington denies it, although it's not a popular topic.  It's necessary at this point.

[BDG]

Economies are cyclical... we've walked this road many times before.  Nothing new under the sun here.  All you have to do is study your history and take note of where the opportunities were last time we were here.

100% correct. This is cyclical.  It will not be a pleasant year going forward, but if your time horizon is 5 plus years, I wouldn't freak out just yet.

[SirTraps]

no puppet govt has ever been overthrown, no administration has ever changed foreign policy, we have never suffered a depression

      ok, gotcha     nice crystal ball.........

[240 is Back]

no puppet govt has ever been overthrown, no administration has ever changed foreign policy, we have never suffered a depression

      ok, gotcha     nice crystal ball.........

1. If they overthrow their govt, we're there to crush any resistance and force any new parties to abide by the agreement, or meet Saddam.

2. Why would any US admin walk away from all that oil?  Be realistic here.  It just doesn't happen.

3. We might suffer a depression.  But that won't change the fact that 4/5 of wha'ts under their sand belongs to us.

Bottom line is that the contract is in place, the bases are in place, the drilling is happening, and we'll be there forever.  Politicians on both sides admit this now.  You have lots of ideas of what 'could' happen.  but this is what IS happening.

[SirTraps]

There once was a guy named The Shah, there once was a Batista, there once was a friendly govt in Venezuela, there once was a puppet govt in South Vietnam.........who knows what will happen in 20 years ? especially the most unstable region in the world.   

       Study some history before you claim "its a lock, there is a written contract in place"     That really doesnt mean shit.

[240 is Back]

There once was a guy named The Shah, there once was a Batista, there once was a friendly govt in Venezuela, there once was a puppet govt in South Vietnam.........who knows what will happen in 20 years ? especially the most unstable region in the world.   

       Study some history before you claim "its a lock, there is a written contract in place"     That really doesnt mean shit.

1. In 20 years, we'll have pumped them dry and the bases will only remain for strategic reasons.

2. We have a base that's 4 square miles, in the middle of their capital city, and 2 dozen bases throughout the country.  We run their police and military.  We have soldiers roving their streets 24/7.

They probably have 'coups' all the time- groups who would love to kick us and al-maliki out.  We kill them quickly.  The chance of them building any real resistance, nah, I dno't see that happeneing for a while.  We'd see it, label it a bad guy, and carpet bomb it.

[SirTraps]

OK Eisenhower, looks like youve got this thing all figured out.  Ill be moving along now. 

[stormshadow]

Well, let's see....  in late 2003 the FFO rate stood at 1%.  Over the next three years, it went up to 5.25%.  With this latest cut, I believe it stands at 3.5%.   

If you do the math, your analogy doesn't hold.

My math was not tied to interest rates in 2003 vs rates today.  I was just illustrating that we were first stolen from via inflation and any gain is only a fraction of our original purchasing power being returned.  The overall result is always negative since leaving the gold standard.

As soon as it was illegal for private citizens to own gold in 1933, the value of the dollar was pegged at 35 dollars per troy ounce, from a free market rate of around 25.  

That was the start of theft by inflation.  

[stormshadow]

1. In 20 years, we'll have pumped them dry and the bases will only remain for strategic reasons.

2. We have a base that's 4 square miles, in the middle of their capital city, and 2 dozen bases throughout the country.  We run their police and military.  We have soldiers roving their streets 24/7.

They probably have 'coups' all the time- groups who would love to kick us and al-maliki out.  We kill them quickly.  The chance of them building any real resistance, nah, I dno't see that happeneing for a while.  We'd see it, label it a bad guy, and carpet bomb it.

Although you have some valid points, how about leaving this thread on the topic of monetary policy and start your own thread to dicuss the reasons for our involvement in Iraq

[240 is Back]

Although you have some valid points, how about leaving this thread on the topic of monetary policy and start your own thread to dicuss the reasons for our involvement in Iraq

good idea!

[Rami]

So...whey protein will be cheaper or higher?

[danielson]

Opportunities

- Property values still incredibly depressed in most areas of the country so it's a great time to buy.
- Low interest rates and a depressed RE market means a $50,000 downpayment could buy you an appraised $500,000 home for $350,000 with a monthly nut of less than $2,000.

It is a great time to buy definitely. Problem is that most people can't sell, at least here in Michigan. I am running into more and more people who are choosing a deed in lieu(basically a sped up foreclosure, where you give the house back and don't get phone calls for a year bothering you about late payments). Due to 100% financing and the real estate market taking a huge dive, MANY people owe much more on their home than it is worth. In some cases, it can be a disaster, such as people with adjusting ARMS that can not be re-fied and it makes their payment skyrocket. But even for people in fixed mortgages, why hold on to their homes? Here is an example of a loan I just wrote: A guy owed 240 on a house that was maybe worth 180. The home was in his name only, his wife was on title, but that doesn't make her responsible for payments, it just means if something happened to him, it would go to her etc. So he did what a lot of people have been doing. Found a house for about 210 that was much nicer than the home he was living in and his wife got the mortgage in her name. His new house is worth at least 250, even in this shitty market, so he has 40 grand in equity(who knows what that will be like in years to come), rather than negative 60k. His payments are much cheaper and the house is much nicer. His credit took a shit, or it will when the old bank accepts the deed in lieu(if they don't accept it, he will just let them foreclose, either way he is not making any more payments). But they will live in the new house for several years if not forever, so it won't hurt them financially at all. The wife gets a company car and can put his cars in her name so imo it was a great decision to do this, and many people around here have done it or are in the process of doing it. Not sure what this will do to the housing market in the long term, if anything at all, but for some people it makes sense. And for people like my boss, who refied the shit out of his house during the boom a few years ago and now owes 800+ on a 400k house, I really don't see any other alternatives. Of course if both spouses are on the mortgage you are better off to buy the new house first and then renege on the old loan before your credit takes the hit, but either way with this market it's the only way to turn a huge negative into a positive. Have any of you guys heard of anything like this?

[SteelePegasus]

So...whey protein will be cheaper or higher?

due to supplement companies try to maximize profits and the increased consumption from countries like China whey prices are going up

[G o a t b o y]

So he did what a lot of people have been doing. Found a house for about 210 that was much nicer than the home he was living in and his wife got the mortgage in her name. His new house is worth at least 250, even in this shitty market, so he has 40 grand in equity(who knows what that will be like in years to come), rather than negative 60k. His payments are much cheaper and the house is much nicer. His credit took a shit, or it will when the old bank accepts the deed in lieu

Here's where I'm confused on this...  if he can easily buy the new house for 210, how exactly is it worth 250?  If something sells for 210, that's how much it's worth.  So where does this magic $40k in equity come from?  I agree he's ending up with a better house for lower payments and less outstanding debt, but it seems to me he would have to come up with 20% of that $210k, especially in today's enviornment?

[danielson]

Here's where I'm confused on this...  if he can easily buy the new house for 210, how exactly is it worth 250?  If something sells for 210, that's how much it's worth.  So where does this magic $40k in equity come from?  I agree he's ending up with a better house for lower payments and less outstanding debt, but it seems to me he would have to come up with 20% of that $210k, especially in today's enviornment?

You are absolutely right, the purchase price of the house is technically what the home is worth. What I meant to say is that comparable houses are selling for 250. Now in 6 months he could get a new appraisal and pull out 40k and refinance because we could definitely use other comps to back up the 250 value, but that is neither here nor there. Also, 100% financing is still available, most of the major lenders still offer 80/20's, for now anyway. It IS much harder to qualify for 100% though and appraisal review is a son of a bitch on re-fies now.

[G o a t b o y]

You are absolutely right, the purchase price of the house is technically what the home is worth. What I meant to say is that comparable houses are selling for 250.

So what really happened is he found a deal where a home was selling below current market for whatever reason.  Good for him, but not something that happens every day, obviously.

Also, 100% financing is still available, most of the major lenders still offer 80/20's, for now anyway

THAT truly shocks me.  It's interesting to say the least.  I would have thought lenders would have learned their lesson after the past year.  The real problem was never people with "bad credit histories", but people who were in houses they couldn't afford, with no equity, in a falling housing market.