Election 2016

[Dos Equis]

Karl Rove: Populists Like Trump, Sanders Can't Win Major Party Nod
By Cathy Burke     
Wednesday, 08 Jul 2015

Presidential candidates Sen. Bernie Sanders and real estate tycoon Donald Trump both draw on the populist wings of their parties, but neither will win the nomination – and both could make the campaign trail rockier for whoever does, GOP political analyst Karl Rove says.

In a commentary piece for the Wall Street Journal Wednesday night, the former deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush and American Crossroads PAC organizer writes the Democratic contender Sanders and GOP candidate Trump have one thing in common: Both are "disrupters" who "are planning to hang around."

"Mr. Sanders, an ideological true-believer, wants to drag his party further left,'' Rove writes. "Mr. Trump wants to draw attention and become a political force. It will be interesting to see how other White House hopefuls handle these disruptive intraparty rivals."

"Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump won’t win their party’s nomination," Rove adds. "But in trying, they could make the path to the White House that much rockier for whoever eventually does.

So far, Rove notes, Sanders has gained about 250,000 donors and turned out huge crowds in Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine and New Hampshire – cutting into Hillary Clinton's lead in Iowa to 34 points from 51, and her margin in New Hampshire to 16 from 37.

"Mrs. Clinton is dealing with Mr. Sanders’s challenge by moving left," Rove writes. "Mr. Sanders could also pull her so far left in the primaries as to create openings for Republicans to exploit in the general election."

Meanwhile, Trump's rise to 6.5 percent in the Real Clear Politics average "comes at the expense of others competing for the same space, including neurosurgeon Ben Carson, [Texas] Sen. Ted Cruz and [Wisconsin] Gov. Scott Walker," Rove writes. "None of them is as blunt and outrageous in tapping into resentment as Mr. Trump."

"The response of GOP candidates to Mr. Trump should be guided by the June 23 Fox News Poll showing that 64 percent of Republicans, 69 percent of conservatives and 55 percent of tea party members consider his candidacy a sideshow," Rove writes, charging his favorable ratings are the worst of 106 presidential candidates since 1980.

"Mr. Trump is disliked by 57 percent of his own party," Rove writes.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/karl-rove-populists-donald-trump-bernie-sanders/2015/07/08/id/654131/#ixzz3fPdrKVBn

[240 is Back]

Karl Rove: Populists Like Trump, Sanders Can't Win Major Party Nod

LOL after recent elections, I'm pretty sure we should roll with the opposite of whatever Rove says.

When all-time great getbig thinkers like HH6 are starting to like trump, as he mentioned earlier in a post, I think Trump may just have a chance of stealing this.

Note, Trump is a blowhard egomaniac secret liberal, but his message and no-BS attitude is really resonating with people.  They won't CARE that he's really wrong about 20% of the time cause they love so much of the other 80% of what he says.  He's like the girl that can't cook and may wreck your car, but she makes great $ and is awesome in bed.  Ya put up with the nonsense.

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Any GOP Hopeful Beats Hillary in 6 Battleground States

Image: Poll: Any GOP Hopeful Beats Hillary in 6 Battleground States (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
By Melanie Batley   
Thursday, 16 Jul 2015

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would lose to a generic Republican presidential candidate in six battleground states if the election were held today, a new poll has found.

The poll, commissioned by the conservative super PAC American Crossroads, was conducted by Vox Populi from July 7-8 of 1,670 registered voters. It found that in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia, a Republican candidate would win with 50 percent of the vote while Clinton would draw 42 percent.

The same survey in May found that in a matchup with a Republican, Clinton would lose by a 10-point margin at 41 percent compared to 51 percent.

"Despite three months of campaigning and trying to rehabilitate her image, Hillary Clinton continues to struggle in key battleground states," Ian Prior, the communications director for American Crossroads, said in a statement, according to The Hill.

"As rumors of Joe Biden's entry into the race grow, Democrats should pay very close attention to Hillary's glaring and irreparable weaknesses."

The poll also found that just 38 percent of voters in those states have a favorable view of Clinton while 53 percent have an unfavorable view. And a majority of voters surveyed, or 56 percent, say they don't trust Clinton, while 58 percent believe she would "do or say anything" to get elected.

Meanwhile, more respondents said they would prefer seeing Vice President Joe Biden as the next president in a matchup with Clinton, 34 percent compared to 30 percent.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/hillary-florida-ohio-colorado/2015/07/16/id/657350/#ixzz3g5Xv68NQ

[polychronopolous]

Poll: Any GOP Hopeful Beats Hillary in 6 Battleground States

Image: Poll: Any GOP Hopeful Beats Hillary in 6 Battleground States (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
By Melanie Batley   
Thursday, 16 Jul 2015

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would lose to a generic Republican presidential candidate in six battleground states if the election were held today, a new poll has found.

The poll, commissioned by the conservative super PAC American Crossroads, was conducted by Vox Populi from July 7-8 of 1,670 registered voters. It found that in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia, a Republican candidate would win with 50 percent of the vote while Clinton would draw 42 percent.

The same survey in May found that in a matchup with a Republican, Clinton would lose by a 10-point margin at 41 percent compared to 51 percent.

"Despite three months of campaigning and trying to rehabilitate her image, Hillary Clinton continues to struggle in key battleground states," Ian Prior, the communications director for American Crossroads, said in a statement, according to The Hill.

"As rumors of Joe Biden's entry into the race grow, Democrats should pay very close attention to Hillary's glaring and irreparable weaknesses."

The poll also found that just 38 percent of voters in those states have a favorable view of Clinton while 53 percent have an unfavorable view. And a majority of voters surveyed, or 56 percent, say they don't trust Clinton, while 58 percent believe she would "do or say anything" to get elected.

Meanwhile, more respondents said they would prefer seeing Vice President Joe Biden as the next president in a matchup with Clinton, 34 percent compared to 30 percent.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/hillary-florida-ohio-colorado/2015/07/16/id/657350/#ixzz3g5Xv68NQ

38% favorability?? 

That's pitiful.

[Dos Equis]

38% favorability?? 

That's pitiful.

Yep.  She certainly doesn't appear to be the juggernaut the media and others portrayed her to be.

[LurkerNoMore]

How many elections has a Clinton lost to a Republican?

[240 is Back]

How many elections has a Clinton lost to a Republican?

about as many as Trump's won. 

still, repubs love him. 

[TheGrinch]

you guys HAVE to stop voting for the lesser of 2 evils...

seriously...

[Dos Equis]

Top 4 money takeaways for 2016
By Theodore Schleifer, CNN
Thu July 16, 2015

Washington (CNN)Nearly every presidential candidate released on Wednesday released detailed financial portraits of how their campaign fares entering the summer. The sums are important, but six months before any votes are cast, the tea leaves tell us more.

Bernie Sanders and Ben Carson could raise tons of money
The sums raised by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, $15 million, and neurosurgeon Ben Carson, $8.5 million, aren't jaw-dropping by themselves. Yet what should make their campaigns more intimidating to their party's frontrunners is the percentage of those funds that came from small-dollar donors.

Sanders, the Democratic socialist posing a surprising challenge to Hillary Clinton, raised 77% of his money in chunks less than $200, what the Federal Elections Commission considers a low-dollar contribution. And Carson brought in 67% of his money in similarly sized donations.

Here's what that means: Sanders and Carson can return to their large donor lists for another $150 again and again and again. Their donors are not "maxed out" -- they haven't yet hit the $2,700 contribution limit the FEC sets for each individual each cycle. So though Sanders and Carson sit well behind the Democratic and Republican frontrunners for the presidential nomination, they have access to potentially gallons of water to draw upon waiting in the well.

That can't be said of Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush in the same way
One of the dynastic candidates' strengths entering 2016 is their families' ties to the fundraising networks. And Wednesday's data didn't dispute that: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush raised $11.4 million thanks in part to the path-breaking bundling network invented by his brother, and Clinton's $45 million from the Democratic establishment gives her a tremendous advantage.

But very little of their money comes from the grassroots donors that Sanders and Carson have captured. A measly 3% of Bush's money came in small amounts. That's in part because he only had two weeks as an official candidate to raise donations for his official campaign, but it marks a stark contrast with Carson.

Clinton fared better: 17% of her cash came in less-than-$200 increments. But read another way, it presents a problem for the Democrats' leading candidate: more than 60% of Clinton's contributions came from donors who aren't allowed to give again in the primary race.

Some campaigns are spending a lot already
What unites Clinton and Carson is their high level of spending in the opening weeks of their campaigns. Both campaigns boast a relatively high "burn rate" -- the proportion of the money raised that is spent.

That rate is looked to by operatives and rivals to gauge how lean a campaign is, especially in the early stages when few candidates have begun to spend on television ads. Carson's burn rate of 64% is driven by high staff salaries -- and that will likely be a drag on his campaign for the duration. Clinton's burn rate was 40%, according to her FEC filing.

Other campaigns burned by their rate: Donald Trump, who ditched 74% of his money in the first quarter; Rick Santorum, who spent 62% of his; and Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and Rick Perry, the only other candidates with a rate above 50% this quarter.

If a campaign wants to go deep into primary season -- especially if it doesn't have a well-funded super PAC that it can use as a lifeline -- a high burn rate can spell trouble.

Wednesday doesn't even come close to revealing the full picture
The reports out Wednesday begin to outline the contours of the 2016 fundraising battle. The super PAC filings out in two weeks will tell us the names waging it.

The campaign committees are expected to raise far less than the super PACs independently backing their bids. These groups, which are allowed to accept contributions of unlimited size as long as they don't coordinate spending with the campaign, will show sums far exceeding the differences between individual campaigns.

The other signal to be followed in those reports: Big-ticket Democratic donors have largely made their choice -- Clinton. But who are the Republicans' biggest moneymen lining up behind? There are some Republican donors who will give millions of dollars this cycle. Even if they're only ponying up a few hundred thousand in June, their next contribution could be 10 times as large when the Iowa caucuses beckon.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/16/politics/campaign-finance-2016-election-takeaways/index.html

[Dos Equis]

Clinton, Carson lead fundraising in Iowa
Brianne Pfannenstiel, bpfannenst@dmreg.com
July 25, 2015

Clinton_Carson_Composite-Presto
(Photo: The Register)

If dollars were votes, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ben Carson would be winning the Iowa caucuses.

The two candidates have so far gathered the most money from Iowa donors, according to campaign finance data from the Federal Election Commission.

Former Secretary of State Clinton tops the list, pulling in 168 donations totaling $51,891 by the close of the fundraising period June 30. Just behind her is Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, who raised $43,633 from 172 Iowa contributions.

Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said at first he was surprised to see Carson leading the GOP pack in terms of money raised, but it matches what he's observed of Carson's campaign.

"I knew his ground game was second to none, and I know he has energy and enthusiasm among his supporters," he said. "I think Ben Carson is going to compete. I think he's got the trifecta in terms of what it takes to win a caucus: network, enthusiasm and some dollars."

However, experts say a strong fundraising showing in Iowa is no reason to flock to a candidate — or to write off another.

"It really has no correlation whatsoever" with who has the most support, said Doug Gross, a Republican strategist and former chief of staff to Gov. Terry Branstad. As a presidential candidate, "you spend money in Iowa; you don't raise it."

Who's spending most

On the other side of the balance sheet, neither Clinton nor Carson is the top spender in Iowa.

That title belongs to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican from Texas who has spent $758,804 in the state — over $300,000 more than any other candidate.

Most of that went to a call center in Brooklyn, Ia., for fundraising phone calls. Nearly everything else was spent on hotels, food and facility rentals.

"That's prospecting — trying to persuade," Gross said of the call center spending. "He knows he's got to leave it all on the field, here."

In spending in Iowa, Clinton falls to second place and Carson slips to sixth, with each campaign paying out $446,133 and $65,070, respectively.

Sitting at the bottom: former New York Gov. George Pataki, a Republican, who recorded no expenditures in the state. Just above him: Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, also a Republican, spent $443 on a single round of food and drinks.

Nationally, Clinton is the largest fundraiser, with $47.5 million from all sources, including political committees. Rounding out the top five: Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who's seeking the Democratic nomination, $15.2 million; Cruz, $14.3 million; former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a Republican, $11.4 million; and Carson, $10.6 million.

Three Republican governors who were the latest to enter the race — Chris Christie of New Jersey, who announced on June 30, the last day of the filing period, and Scott Walker of Wisconsin and John Kasich of Ohio, who announced in July — do not yet have data to report. Earlier entrants like Cruz, who was the first to jump into the race back in March, had more time than others to raise and spend money.

The big money, though, has been raised and spent through super political action committees — independent organizations that can raise unlimited funds in support of a candidate, but cannot by law contribute to a candidate or coordinate directly with a campaign.

Those organizations must file their financial data with the FEC by the end of the day Friday, but some have already made announcements about their hauls. A super PAC called Right to Rise USA, which supports Bush, announced earlier this month it had reached $103 million in contributions.

Many experts say this election year will be the most expensive on record by far, largely because of the rise of super PACs in the wake of the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision. The court ruled that political spending is free speech, and that corporations or unions, as long as they act independently of a party or candidate, can spend unlimited amounts on political activities.

The ground game

Whether it's through campaign contributions or super PAC money, Gross said every candidate who wants to do well in the caucuses needs to make a strong commitment to campaigning in the state. That commitment can be reflected in how much time they spend in Iowa and how much money they're spending on things associated with organization — expenses like salaries, travel and hotels, he said.

Kaufmann said it's also useful to look at how many individual contributions have been made to candidates. That can indicate grass-roots support from people who don't write a big check, but still donate.

Carson tops the list with 172 donations averaging $254. Clinton follows him with 168 donations averaging $309. Cruz is next with 133 donations averaging $150.

Kaufmann said the act of giving a small amount or even signing some kind of pledge to caucus for a candidate can be just as valuable as the large checks.

"This is an old-fashioned statement, perhaps it's cliché, but I believe signing your name, giving your promise, looking someone in the eye — I really believe for Iowans that still matters," he said. "That's one of the many reasons I believe we still deserve our first-in-the-nation status."




http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/07/26/campaign-fundraising-hillary-clinton-ben-carson/30680553/

[Dos Equis]

Fox News Poll: New high for Trump, new low for Clinton
By Dana Blanton
Published August 03, 2015
FoxNews.com

Businessman Donald Trump continues to gain ground in the race for the Republican nomination.  What’s more, the number of GOP primary voters saying they would at least consider backing Trump has more than doubled in the last two months.  Meanwhile, support for Democratic frontrunner former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains high, despite sliding to its lowest yet. 

These are some of the findings from the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 presidential race.

Trump receives the backing of 26 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters -- up from 18 percent in mid-July and 11 percent a month ago. That’s not only the highest level of support for Trump, but it’s also the highest any GOP candidate has received since the Fox poll began asking the question in December 2013. 

Trump’s rise hasn’t hurt former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who garners 15 percent and is the only other Republican in double-digits.  He was at 14 percent in mid-July and 15 percent in June.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS

Behind Trump and Bush, it’s Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 9 percent, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 7 percent, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 6 percent each, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 5 percent a piece, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich get 3 percent each. 

That group is followed by businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum tied at 2 percent, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal tied at 1 percent and former New York Gov. George Pataki, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore receive less than 1 percent support.

Two Republicans threw their hat in the ring in the last two weeks.  Kasich formally announced July 21 and his support went from two percent in mid-July to three percent in the new poll.  Gilmore made his candidacy official July 30. 

Men (29 percent) are a bit more likely than women (24 percent) to back Trump -- yet he’s the top vote-getter for both. 

Another example of GOP primary voters increasingly liking what they hear from Trump:  34 percent say they would “definitely” vote for him, which is more than four times what it was two months ago (8 percent).

And the number who would “never” support Trump dropped 26 percentage points: it was 59 percent in June and 33 percent now.  Graham (40 percent), Christie (34 percent) and Pataki (34 percent) now have more voters than the Donald saying they would never vote for them. 

Only nine percent would “never” vote for Walker.  That gives him the best rating among GOP candidates on that measure, although he’s also one of the least well-known candidates: 47 percent say they “want more information” about him before deciding their vote.

Winning isn’t everything -- or at least electability isn’t foremost in the minds of GOP primary voters right now. When asked what they want in their party’s nominee, they say being a strong leader (29 percent) matters more than having true conservative values (20 percent), beating the Democrat (13 percent), having the right experience (13 percent) and shaking things up in Washington (13 percent).

Those who prioritize strong leadership are most likely to back Trump (29 percent), Bush (19 percent), Walker (10 percent), Rubio (7 percent), Kasich (5 percent) and Paul (5 percent). 

While 40 percent of GOP primary voters say economic issues will be most important in deciding their vote for the party’s nomination, some 31 percent say national security will matter most.  Another 12 percent say immigration issues will be most important and 7 percent say social issues.

Trump is ahead among some sought-after GOP constituencies.  For example, the current favorites among the Tea Party movement are Trump (33 percent), Walker (15 percent), Cruz (13 percent) and Carson (10 percent).  The top picks among white evangelical Christians include Trump (22 percent), Bush (17 percent), Carson (10 percent), Huckabee (10 percent) and Walker (10 percent).

What if Trump were out of the picture? Republican primary voters were also asked about their second choice candidate, which allows a look at the state of the race if a current candidate were to drop out. Here’s how things stand without Trump: Bush gets 20 percent, followed by Walker at 13 percent, Carson and Cruz at 9 percent, Huckabee at 8 percent, Paul, Rubio and Christie tie at 6 percent, Kasich at 4 percent, and Perry, Fiorina and Santorum get 2 percent each. 

Switching to the Democratic side, Clinton is still the favorite among self-identified Democratic primary voters.  She receives 51 percent while Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders comes in at 22 percent.  Yet that is Clinton’s worst showing -- and Sanders’ best.  Support for Clinton was 59 percent two weeks ago, 61 percent a month ago -- and has been as high as 63 percent in the months since Sanders entered the race.  Vice President Joe Biden, who is said to be considering a run, sits at 13 percent support.

By an 18-point margin, Republican primary voters (74 percent) are more likely than their Democratic counterparts (56 percent) to be extremely or very interested in the 2016 election.

Overall, voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country (30 percent).  Next it’s terrorism and health care (11 percent each). Less than one voter in 10 says the top problem is immigration (7 percent), foreign policy (7 percent), the federal deficit (7 percent), race relations (5 percent), climate change (5 percent), gay marriage (3 percent), taxes (3 percent) and abortion (2 percent). 

The economy is the top concern for both Democrats and Republicans.  Health care comes in second for Democrats, while for Republicans it is terrorism. 

Voters split on the job Barack Obama is doing as president:  46 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove.  Two weeks ago it was 47-48 percent (July 13-15, 2015).  A year ago, 42 percent of voters approved and 49 percent disapproved (August 2014).

Eighty-two percent of Democrats approve of Obama’s performance, while 85 percent of Republicans disapprove.  Among independents, it is 37 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,306 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from July 30-August 2, 2015. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters, and four points for both Democratic and Republican primary voters.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/03/fox-news-poll-new-high-for-trump-new-low-for-clinton/?intcmp=hpbt1

[Dos Equis]

Giuliani: Trump, Hillary Won't Be the Nominees

Image: Giuliani: Trump, Hillary Won't Be the Nominees (Getty Images)
By Melanie Batley
Monday, 10 Aug 2015

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani does not believe Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will end up living at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue when the dust settles from the 2016 campaign, the New York Daily News reported.

"Donald Trump must be drinking the Kool-Aid if he thinks he’s going to be president," a Daily News insider reported overhearing Giuliani say.

"Donald is really smart, and he knows how to create great theater," the inside source reported Giuliani telling "several guests."

"If he hadn’t (qualified for) the debates, Fox should’ve paid him to be in them. Fox should be grateful. If it wasn’t for (New Jersey Gov. Chris) Christie and Trump, it wouldn’t have been that exciting."

The 2008 presidential contender, who has been friends with Trump for 25 years, made the comments at a private event in New York, according to the newspaper.

Giuliani has, however, been publicly supportive of the real estate tycoon. Shortly before the debate, Giuliani said publicly that Trump reminds him of former President Ronald Reagan.

"This is a very smart guy," Giuliani told MSNBC’s Chris Matthews on "Hardball." "This is a person who is media-savvy in ways that some of the other candidates aren’t. And he’s a lot more substantive than you realize."

Giuliani did not have positive predictions for Clinton, either.

"I’m not so sure she’ll make it through the primaries or win the general election," the source quoted Giuliani as having said. "I think it’s wide open for (Ohio Gov. John) Kasich, Christie, (Wisconsin Gov. Scott) Walker, (former Florida Gov. Jeb) Bush, or (Florida Sen. Marco) Rubio to take it away from her."

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/giuliani-trump-gop-nominee/2015/08/10/id/669337/#ixzz3iRVecCFw

[240 is Back]

Giuliani: Trump, Hillary Won't Be the Nominees

How does hilary lose?   Bernie is popular but she'll wreck in him on infrastructure alone. 

I hate hilary, but her winning nomination seems like a foregone conclusion. 

[Dos Equis]

Clinton Trails Four GOPers in Latest Iowa Poll
SIZEAA by ELIANA JOHNSON
@ELIANAYJOHNSON   
August 11, 2015 1:37 PM 

The latest PPP poll out of Iowa shows Hillary Clinton trailing four Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups.  Ben Carson performs best against the former secretary of state, besting her by by four percentage points, 44-40, while former Florida governor Jeb Bush performs the worst. He trails her by four points, 44-40. The other three GOPers who came out ahead of Clinton are Wisconsin governor Scott Walker and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee — lead her 44-43 — and Florida senator Marco Rubio, who leads her 43-42. Kentucky senator Rand Paul and real-estate mogul Donald Trump both trail Clinton by three points, 43-40, and Texas senator Ted Cruz; former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina; New Jersey governor Chris Chrisite; and Ohio governor John Kasich all trail her by two points. The poll’s margin of error is four points, so all of the results remain, of course, with the margin.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/422407/whats-wrong-four-percent-growth-target-ramesh-ponnuru

[Dos Equis]

Quinnipiac: Biden More Competitive Than Clinton Against GOP


Image: Quinnipiac: Biden More Competitive Than Clinton Against GOP  (AP) 
Thursday, 27 Aug 2015

Here's one more reason to continue speculating about whether Vice President Joe Biden will enter the presidential race: he polls better nationally against the leading three Republican candidates than Hillary Clinton, and has a higher favorability rating, too.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday, if Biden was the democratic candidate, he would beat Donald Trump by eight points (48 - 40 percent), former Florida Governor Jeb Bush by six points (45 - 39) and Senator Marco Rubio by three points (44 - 41). Clinton only beats Trump by four points (45 - 41), Bush by two points (42 - 40) and Rubio by one point (44 - 43).

Eighty-three percent of Democrats view Biden favorably, compared to 76 percent and 54 percent who approve of Clinton and Vermont Senator Sanders, respectively. Among all registered voters, Biden has a 48 percent favorability rating, while Clinton came in at 39 percent and Sanders at 32 percent.

“Note to Biden: They like you, they really like you, or they like you more than the others,” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a press release accompanying the poll. “If he is sitting on the fence, his scores in the matchups and his favorability ratings may compel him to say, ‘Let's do this.’”

The good news for Clinton is that she's still leading the race to become the Democratic nominee—45 percent of Democrats polled would choose Clinton as the party nominee, 22 percent would choose Sanders and 18 percent would choose Biden. No other Democrat polls above 1 percent.

The ongoing questions about Clinton's private e-mail server may have created an opening for Biden, who is expected to make a decision on whether he'll enter the race or not by Oct. 1. A Biden run would provide nervous Democrats an alternative to Clinton. Last week, a separate Quinnipiac poll found that Biden performed as well as or better than Clinton against leading Republicans in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, three swing states seen as key to winning the general election.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/biden-clinton-2016-gop/2015/08/27/id/672121/#ixzz3k3Do5sZt

[Dos Equis]

2016 General Election Match Ups Close
September 03, 2015

PPP's newest national poll finds that Hillary Clinton generally holds modest leads over the Republican field for President, with Ben Carson faring the strongest among the GOP hopefuls.

Carson earns a tie with Clinton at 44%, and he actually leads Bernie Sanders 42/36 in a head to head. Carson is the only declared candidate with a positive favorability rating- 41% of voters nationally see him positively to only 30% who have a negative opinion. He earns a tie with Clinton on the basis of a 43/35 advantage with independents.

The other candidates who come really close to Clinton are Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina, who are each down by just 2. Fiorina trails Clinton 45/43, and is down 39/38 to Sanders. Trump is down just 2 points as well at 46/44, and he leads Sanders 43/42. It used to be that nominating Trump looked like it would be an unmitigated disaster for the GOP but as he's gotten stronger in Republican polls, he's also gotten stronger in general election polling and is now doing better against Clinton than the perceived 'electable' candidate trio of Bush, Rubio, and Walker. Interestingly Joe Biden actually does far better than both Clinton and Sanders against Trump, with a 6 point advantage at 47/41. Biden joins Carson as the second person with a positive rating in this poll at 43/40.

The news of Trump possibly forgoing a third party bid is very good for the GOP. We find that he would actually earn more support than Jeb Bush in a three way contest, getting 27% to Bush's 23% and leaving Clinton with a landslide victory at 42%. Bush leads Trump only 46/44 with Republican voters in that scenario, and gets 31% of independents to only 19% for Bush.

The weakest performing Republicans against Clinton are Scott Walker who trails by 7 at 47/40, and Mike Huckabee who trails by 6 at 48/42. In the middle are Ted Cruz who's down 5 at 47/42, John Kasich who's down 5 at 44/39, and Marco Rubio who's down at 47/43.
We tested Jeb Bush against Clinton, Sanders, and Biden to get a sense of their relative strength as general election candidates. Clinton (a 4 point lead over Bush at 46/42) and Biden (a 3 point lead over Bush at 44/41) do quite similarly. Sanders does a little bit worse, trailing Bush by a point at 41/40.

Finally we rounded up a bunch of the 'joke candidates' who have filed with the FEC to see who America's favorite is from that crew. The winner is Captain Crunch with 17%, followed by Deez Nuts at 9%, Beast Mode at 5%, Queen Elsa Ice at 4%, Butt Stuff at 3%, Cranky Pants at 2%, and Limberbutt McCubbins and 'Murican Cookies each at 1%.

Polling joke candidates has been fun, but we're going to take a break now and stick to serious people like Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Kanye.

Full results here

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/2016-general-election-match-ups-close.html

[JOHN MATRIX]

it is funny to read these month to month progressions. the 'experts' are basically no more accurate than the people on this board lmao.

right now, JOE BIDEN is beating EVERYBODY. lets bump this next year for a hearty laugh.

[Dos Equis]

2016 election candidates
Updated September 9, 2015
Who's in? Who's out? CNN Politics gives you a guide to the field of potential candidates for the 2016 presidential race.

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2015/05/politics/2016-election-candidates/

[whork]

it is funny to read these month to month progressions. the 'experts' are basically no more accurate than the people on this board lmao.

right now, JOE BIDEN is beating EVERYBODY. lets bump this next year for a hearty laugh.

Yup and i think its awesome.

It has made politics much more exiting.

[Dos Equis]

Quinnipiac Poll: Carson, Biden Strongest in General Election

Image: Quinnipiac Poll: Carson, Biden Strongest in General Election (Getty Images)
By Loren Gutentag
Thursday, 24 Sep 2015

Although Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton still lead the presidential nomination for their respective parties, a new Quinnipiac University national poll shows that Vice President Joe Biden and Dr. Ben Carson run strongest in general election matchups.

In the Democratic race:
Clinton gets 43 percent, Sen. Bernie Sanders 25 percent, and Biden -- who has yet to decide whether to run – gets 18 percent.

In the Republican race:
Trump leads with 25 percent, Carson gets 17 percent, Carly Fiorina third with 12 percent and Jeb Bush next with 10 percent; no other GOP White House contenders polled in double digits

In general election match-ups:
Clinton is 2 percentage points ahead of Trump and Carson leads her with 7 percentage points.
Biden has an 11 point lead vs. Trump and ties with Carson, 45 – 45 percent.
Biden also runs ahead of Fiorina and Bush while Clinton slightly trails behind both.

The poll reveals that Clinton and Trump are seen by respondents as the least honest and trustworthy among all candidates.

Voters say 63 – 32 percent, including 68 – 26 percent among independent voters, that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy.

Voters say 57 – 35 percent, including 56 – 36 percent among independent voters, that Trump is not honest and trustworthy.

And although Biden has yet to announce a run for White House, he has the best honesty and trustworthy scores along with Carson with 62 percent of respondents saying Biden is honest and trustworthy and 63 percent for Carson.

From September 17 – 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,574 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 737 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points and 587 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Poll-Joe-Biden-Ben-Carson-President/2015/09/24/id/693032/#ixzz3mfvzvzSA

[Dos Equis]

Fox News Poll: Outsiders rule 2016 GOP field, support for Biden nearly doubles
By Dana Blanton
Published September 24, 2015
FoxNews.com

Most Republicans feel betrayed by their party -- and show their displeasure by supporting outsiders over establishment candidates in the GOP presidential race.

Real-estate mogul Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are the favorites in the Republican race in the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election.  Neither has held elected office before and yet the two of them -- together with businesswoman Carly Fiorina -- capture the support of more than half of GOP primary voters.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS

On the Democratic side, support for Vice President Joe Biden -- who is still considering a run -- has almost doubled since August.  But make no mistake: Hillary Clinton remains the frontrunner.

Trump stays on top with 26 percent among GOP primary voters, followed by Carson at 18 percent.  Fiorina and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are next, tied at 9 percent.  All four have gained ground. After the August Fox News debate, Trump had 25 percent, while Carson had 12 percent, Fiorina 5 percent and Rubio 4 percent.

Trump holds his leader status even though he was once again rated in the poll as having done the worst job in the debate. Fiorina, Rubio and Carson receive positive marks for their performances.

The appeal of outsiders comes from significant dissatisfaction with the party establishment:  62 percent of Republican primary voters feel “betrayed” by politicians in their party, and another 66 percent say the recent Republican majorities in Washington have failed to do all they could to block or reverse President Obama’s agenda.  For comparison, 40 percent of Democratic primary voters feel betrayed by their party. 

Frustration with party leaders has been a recurring theme for one sitting GOP senator in the race, Ted Cruz of Texas, who is next in the poll at eight percent.  He was at 10 percent in August.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush garners seven percent, a new low for him in the Fox News poll.  He had 15 percent support as recently as early August.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is up a couple ticks to five percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich gets four percent.  Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee receives three percent and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul two percent.  All other candidates receive one percent or less.

The favorites among white evangelical Christians voting in the Republican primary are Trump (29 percent), Carson (21 percent) and Cruz (12 percent).

The top picks among self-described “very” conservatives voting in the GOP primary are Carson (23 percent), Trump (22 percent), Cruz (13 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).

Straight talk is part of Trump’s outsider appeal -- but does he go too far?  Not for GOP primary voters: 65 percent of them say Trump just tells it like it is, compared to 30 percent who think he is “too mean and blunt” to be president.  Trump’s style may be a liability in the general election, though. Overall, 49 percent of voters find him too mean and blunt, while 44 percent say we need his directness.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry dropped out of the race in the last two weeks.  In announcing his decision, Walker made clear his desire to oust Trump. He called on other Republicans to also get out so “voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive, conservative alternative to the current front-runner.”

But what would happen if the “current front-runner” aka Trump were out?  The Fox poll asks voters their second choice candidate, which allows us to look at what happens to the race if someone were to get out. For instance, if Trump gets out, Carson takes the top spot (24 percent), followed by Rubio (12 percent), Fiorina (11 percent), Cruz (11 percent) and Bush (10 percent).

Trump supporters go for Carson (23 percent), Bush (14 percent), Cruz (12 percent) and Rubio (10 percent) as their second-choice picks.

Among all GOP primary voters, the second choice favorites are: Fiorina (14 percent), Carson (13 percent), Trump (12 percent), Bush (10 percent) and Rubio (10 percent).

Clinton sits atop the Democratic pack with the support of 44 percent of primary voters.  Yet that’s a new low for her -- down five points since last month.  She was at 61 percent in June.  Clinton is holding on to her advantage despite 58 percent of all voters -- and 31 percent of Democratic primary voters -- believing she is lying about her emails.

Clinton’s closest rival is still Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who holds steady at 30 percent. Biden gets a record high 18 percent.  A month ago he was at 10 percent.

The remaining Democratic candidates are at two percent or less, including the newest entrant -- Harvard Professor Lawrence Lessig -- who made it official September 9.

Without Biden in the race, it’s Clinton 56 percent and Sanders 32 percent.

Clinton also maintains her advantage over GOP front-runner Trump in a potential 2016 matchup: 46-42 percent.   Last month, it was Clinton over Trump by 47-42 percent.

Who do voters think will be the next president? When asked to name who will win next November, without the aid of a list, a plurality says Clinton (28 percent) followed by Trump (20 percent).  But the electorate isn’t always great at predicting the outcome (at least not this far out).  Eight years ago, by almost four-to-one, voters said Clinton would be the next president (44 percent), followed by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (12 percent).  Barack Obama came in third at six percent (October 2007).  The new poll finds Sanders third at five percent, with Biden and the remaining GOP candidates splitting the rest of the respondents.

This is fun: when all the names are tallied by party, about the same number of voters says the name of a Democrat they think will be the next president (37 percent) as says the name of a Republican (36 percent).

How many debates should there be?

Some of Clinton’s lesser-known competitors, as well as some high-profile Democrats like House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, think there should be more Democratic Presidential debates than the six currently scheduled.  Yet Democratic primary voters seem fine with that number: 58 percent say that’s “about right,” while another 25 percent think it’s “too many.” Just 14 percent say six is “too few.” Sanders supporters (20 percent) are more likely than Clinton supporters (13 percent) to want more debates.

Republicans plan to hold at least nine debates and 50 percent of GOP primary voters thinks that’s “about right.”  Another 41 percent say that’s “too many” and 7 percent say “too few.”

The poll also asks voters who did the best and who did the worst in the September GOP debates hosted by CNN in California.  Debate watchers give the highest net performance score (best job minus worst job) to Fiorina (+34 points), followed by Rubio (+7), Kasich (+2) and Carson (+1).  These are the only candidates to receive net positive scores for their debate performance -- and they are the same four who garnered the highest scores after the first GOP debate last month.

The lowest scores among debate watchers go to Trump (-13 points), Paul (-7 points) and Bush (-4 points).  Trump also got the lowest net score after the first debate (-13 points).

Fiorina received a score of +12 points in August, even though she was in the early debate for second-tier candidates.  She participated in the top tier debate this month and improved her net score by 22 points.

 

Pollpourri

In this year of the outsider, the poll asks voters what would make them more worried about the state of American democracy:  a November match-up between another Clinton and another Bush or a race between upstarts Sanders and Trump?

By a 53-39 percent margin, voters say Sanders vs. Trump would be a worse sign for our democracy.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,013 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 20-22, 2015. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters, and 5 points for Democratic and 4.5 points Republican primary voters.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/24/fox-news-poll-outsiders-rule-2016-gop-field-support-for-biden-nearly-doubles/?intcmp=hplnws

[240 is Back]

Someone should ask carson if muslims should be allowed to vote.

[Dos Equis]

Fox News Poll: Clinton popularity drops, Carson gets high marks
By  Dana Blanton
Published September 27, 2015
FoxNews.com

Hillary Clinton’s personal favorable ratings hit a low mark in the latest Fox News national poll, while Ben Carson’s ratings climb to new high in the wake of his news-generating comments on Muslims and the presidency.

Carson receives the best net favorable scores among all voters as well as self-identified Republicans.  In addition, Donald Trump and Jeb Bush get the worst net scores overall, and Bush has the lowest score among Republicans.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS

Some 38 percent of voters view Clinton favorably, down from 45 percent in May.  The downward shift comes from the fact that half of women now rate her negatively.  Positive views among Democrats are also down since May (-11 points).

Overall, a record high 56 percent of voters now have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton.  For comparison, Bush’s negative rating stands at 55 percent, up from 44 percent in May.  More on him later.

The number of voters who have a positive opinion of Carson is up 20 percentage points:  46 percent now, up from 26 percent in May.  Among Republicans the increase is even greater: 66 percent now view him favorably, up from 42 percent.

Interviewing for the poll started Sunday afternoon and went through Tuesday evening (September 20-22). That Sunday morning, Carson made news with remarks about Sharia law and why he would not support a hypothetical Muslim in the White House.

Carly Fiorina’s ratings also jumped: 38 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of her today. It was 13 percent in May.  Among Republicans, she’s at 52 percent favorable now, up from 22 percent.

None of the people tested -- not the president, not the vice president and not the 2016 contenders -- garner positive ratings from at least 50 percent of the electorate.  Vice President Joe Biden comes closest.  His favorable stands at 49 percent, up from 43 percent in March.

And with a net percent favorable score of +65 points among Democrats, Biden is also more beloved by his party than Clinton (+48 points) and Bernie Sanders (+38).  However, President Barack Obama outdoes them all with a net positive score of +73 points among the party faithful (86 percent favorable vs. 13 percent unfavorable).

While each of the GOP candidates included in the poll has a net positive rating among Republicans, there are big differences.  For example, Carson is way ahead of the pack with a net positive score of +52 points, while Bush has about as many Republicans viewing him positively as negatively for a net rating of +1.  Here are the scores for the other candidates tested: Marco Rubio (+35), Fiorina (+30), Ted Cruz (+21), Trump (+12), Chris Christie (+4) and John Kasich (+3).

While only 34 percent of all voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, some 53 percent of Republicans like him.

The number of Republicans who view Bush favorably has dropped 10 points since May.  He currently receives a 34 percent favorable overall, and a 46 percent favorable among Republicans.

Cruz’s positive ratings have held steady, but negative ratings of him are up 10 points among Republicans.

In general, Trump (98 percent familiar) and Bush (96 percent familiar) have the highest name recognition of the candidates tested, while Kasich (63 percent familiar) is the least well-known.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,013 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from September 20-22, 2015. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters, and 5 points for Democrats and 4.5 points for Republicans.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/09/27/fox-news-poll-clintons-favorable-drops-carson-gets-best-ratings/?intcmp=hpbt4

[Primemuscle]

Clinton's standing as of today: North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D) Clinton 37, Biden 30, Sanders 17, Webb 3, Chafee 2, O'Malley 1, Lessig 0 Clinton +7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

[Dos Equis]

Clinton's standing as of today: North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary PPP (D) Clinton 37, Biden 30, Sanders 17, Webb 3, Chafee 2, O'Malley 1, Lessig 0 Clinton +7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Biden at 30 percent without formally declaring shows just how wounded Hillary is at this point.  Not going to be quite the coronation I thought it would be.