Election 2016

[240 is Back]

Biden is like Jeb... TOTALLY doesn't want the job, but 30 million people are begging him to run.

[Primemuscle]

Biden at 30 percent without formally declaring shows just how wounded Hillary is at this point.  Not going to be quite the coronation I thought it would be. 

Realize that these polls change daily and, like this one, are attributed to those polled in only one state. When the primaries begin, is when the real action gets going. A lot can happen between now and Tuesday, March 1, 2016 otherwise known as "Super Tuesday" when the primaries commence. Primary elections can continue well into June and are subject to change. Some states are not on the calendar as of yet.

[Dos Equis]

Realize that these polls change daily and, like this one, are attributed to those polled in only one state. When the primaries begin, is when the real action gets going. A lot can happen between now and Tuesday, March 1, 2016 otherwise known as "Super Tuesday" when the primaries commence. Primary elections can continue well into June and are subject to change. Some states are not on the calendar as of yet.

I agree.

[Dos Equis]

Quinnipiac Poll: Carson, Biden Do Better Than Others in Swing States

Image: Quinnipiac Poll: Carson, Biden Do Better Than Others in Swing States
By Loren Gutentag   
Wednesday, 07 Oct 2015

Although Vice President Joe Biden has yet to officially announce his third run for president, a new Quinnipiac University survey conducted in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania shows that Biden and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson fare better than the primary leaders in general election matchups.

According to Bloomberg, if the election were held today and Carson were the Republican nominee, he would beat Clinton, Biden, and Senator Bernie Sanders in the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania and also best the Vermont independent in Florida.

No president has won the general election since 1960 without carrying two out of those three swing states.

But, hypothetical match-ups show a different outcome. In Ohio:
 Carson would defeat Biden by four percentage points (46 percent to 42 percent).
Carson would defeat Clinton by nine points (49 percent to 40 percent).
Carson would defeat Sanders by 12 points (48 percent to 36 percent).

In Pennsylvania:
Carson would beat Clinton by nine points (49 percent to 40 percent)
Carson would defeat Sanders by 10 points (47 percent to 37 percent).
Carson would best Vice President Joe Biden by 5 points (47 percent to 42 percent)

In Florida:
 Carson would defeat Sanders 46 percent to 40 percent.
Carson trails Biden by a margin of 45 percent to 42 percent
Carson also trails Clinton by 45 to 42 percent.
 
Carson's' primary numbers, however, still show him trailing behind Trump by a margin of 28 percent to 16 percent in Florida, by 23 percent to 18 percent in Ohio, and by 23 percent to 17 percent in Pennsylvania.

“Those who were waiting for Donald Trump’s campaign to collapse will need to wait longer – at least in the three key states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The swing state poll also showed that Biden would defeat Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Senator Marco Rubio in Florida. And, in Ohio and Pennsylvania Biden would beat Bush, Rubio, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina while Clinton trails all three.

“When we get past the playoffs to the World Series, the general election face-off, Biden does better against leading Republicans than does Clinton or Sanders,” Brown added. “Trump, despite his strong showing in mock Republican primaries, fares worst among the GOP candidates matched against the three Democratic aspirants – giving some credence to pundits who say the billionaire could be every Democrats’ favorite GOP nominee.”

According to the poll, front-runners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton continue to have the worst overall favorability ratings among voters as well as the lowest scores for being honest and trustworthy.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5 by phone. Quinnipiac interviewed 1,173 Florida voters, with a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points; 1,180 Ohio voters with a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points; and 1,049 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/biden-carson-quinnipiac-swing/2015/10/07/id/695037/#ixzz3ntxjggBj

[Dos Equis]

Trust deficit: Swing-state polls show Clinton seen as least honest candidate
Published October 07, 2015
FoxNews.com

The depth of the trust deficit between swing-state voters and Hillary Clinton is revealed in a new Quinnipiac poll that shows likely voters view her as the least honest and trustworthy candidate of all top presidential contenders.

Republican front-runner Donald Trump comes in a close second, but the Quinnipiac University polling in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania shows voters giving the Democratic front-runner the worst scores.

While the polls show Clinton holding her lead in all three states, the responses on the trust question suggest the frequent developments on her personal email scandal are taking a toll. The latest, Fox News has learned, is that the FBI probe of her email has now expanded to include obtaining data from a second tech company which had been hired to help back up data by the company that managed her server.

The Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday shows that in Florida, voters say Clinton is not honest and trustworthy by 59-35 percent.

In Ohio, that split is 61-33 percent. And in Pennsylvania, that split is 61-34 percent.

Trump does slightly better on that question in those states, though still the worst among the leading Republican candidates. Both Trump and Clinton register a negative favorability rating in the three states as well.

Still, Clinton holds a comfortable lead in Florida and Ohio. The exception is Pennsylvania, where her support among primary Democrats slips from 45 percent in August to 36 percent now. Vice President Biden, who is not at this point a declared candidate, has 25 percent, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has 19 percent.

Biden may benefit from the fact that Pennsylvania is his home state.

Republicans seized on the "trust" numbers Wednesday, especially after Clinton's campaign went on offense earlier this week against the congressional Benghazi investigative committee.

"After all the campaign resets and the millions poured into TV ads, Hillary Clinton still finds herself disliked and not trusted by the American people," Jeff Bechdel, spokesman for the conservative America Rising PAC, said in a statement.

A Clinton aide pushed back on criticism over the latest FBI probe development, saying the Clintons did not negotiate the arrangement with the back-up services company, and the campaign supports the company turning over any equipment to the Justice Department.

The Quinnipiac University polls were taken between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5. The survey of 1,173 Florida voters had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points; the survey of 1,180 Ohio voters had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points; the survey of 1,049 Pennsylvania voters had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/10/07/trust-deficit-swing-state-polls-show-clinton-seen-as-least-honest-candidate-in/?intcmp=hpbt2

[TheGrinch]

check the Vegas odds for president...


that is ALL you need to know..


</thread>

[Dos Equis]

check the Vegas odds for president...


that is ALL you need to know..


</thread>

Really?  Vegas odds determine our next president?  Over one year out? 

[240 is Back]

Really?  Vegas odds determine our next president?  Over one year out? 

11 months out from the election, the gamblers were very accudate in 2008 and 2012.

Read about it.  The more you know, the less you blindly kneepad Rubio grow.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keith-thomson/how-gamblers--historys-mo_b_2011534.html

[Dos Equis]

Bwahahahaha!! 

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Trump ahead of Carson; Clinton still front-runner
By Eric Bradner, CNN
Mon October 12, 2015 | Video Source: CNN

Washington (CNN)—Donald Trump remains at the front of the Republican presidential field, with Ben Carson close behind, a new CBS News poll of the national GOP electorate shows.
 
Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, remains 19 percentage points ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic race.

Trump is backed by 27% of likely Republican primary voters, while Carson has 21% support, the survey, released Sunday, found. They're the only candidates in double digits.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is in third place at 9%, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 8% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina at 6% each.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has 4% support, while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 3% and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are at 2% each. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is at 1%, and other candidates fail to register at least 0.5% support.

The poll could bolster Trump's argument that he is electable. It shows that while just 29% of Republican voters say they'd support Trump enthusiastically, the vast majority say they'd vote for him in a general election -- with just 19% saying they wouldn't back him.

It also found that most Republicans see business and private sector experience as preferable for their next presidential nominee, with 55% saying that's the background they'd like their candidate to have compared to 10% preferring work in politics and government.

Carson's favorability rating remains the best of all Republicans, with 62% of GOP voters viewing him favorably compared to just 7% unfavorably. Similarly positive splits are owned by Rubio (50%/12%) and Fiorina (45%/13%). Trump's ratings are 53% to 29%.

The poll's worst news belonged to Bush, who is underwater with the Republican electorate, with 32% viewing him favorably compared to 38% unfavorably.

In the Democratic race, Clinton leads with 46% support compared to Sanders' 27% backing. Vice President Joe Biden, who hasn't yet announced whether he'll enter the race, has 16% backing, and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb gets 2% support.

But Sanders' self-described democratic socialist policies could hurt his electability in the eyes of his party's voters. Democrats said they see Clinton as having the best shot at winning in November -- with 59% saying she's the party's most likely winner against a Republican, compared to 18% for Biden and 15% for Sanders.

All three candidates are viewed overwhelmingly favorably by the party, with Biden faring the best (71% favorable ratings to 9% unfavorable), followed by Clinton (69%/19%) and Sanders (50%/13%).

Both Clinton and Trump face the same challenge demonstrating to voters their trustworthiness. Clinton is viewed as honest and trustworthy by 35%, compared to 61% who say she's not. And Trump is viewed as honest and trustworthy by 33%, compared to 60% who say he's not.

The poll also offered some insight into the challenges that led House Speaker John Boehner to announce his resignation.

Just 23% of Americans -- and 23% of Republicans -- approve of the job Boehner is doing. And at 66%, conservative Republicans are the most likely to disapprove of his performance.

The survey of 1,251 Americans was conducted October 4-8.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/11/politics/poll-donald-trump-leads-ben-carson-hillary-clinton/index.html

[240 is Back]

Poll: Trump ahead of Carson; Clinton still front-runner

but but but zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby zogby

[Dos Equis]

October 13, 2015
Carson holds double-digit lead on Clinton in new poll
By Jonathan Easley


Four Republican presidential candidates lead Hillary Clinton nationally in head-to-head match-ups, according to a new poll.

The Fox News survey released on Tuesday shows Ben Carson running the strongest against Clinton, with the retired neurosurgeon taking 50 percent, compared to only 39 percent for the former secretary of State.

Donald Trump leads Clinton by 45 percent to 40, Jeb Bush leads Clinton 44 to 40 and Carly Fiorina leads Clinton 42 to 39, the poll found.

While it can be dangerous to read too much into any poll this early in the presidential contest, the Fox News survey wil give ammunition to those arguing that Vice President Biden would be a stronger Democratic candidate than Clinton.

Biden leads all of those same Republican contenders in head-to-head match-ups. He's up on Trump by 50 percent to 37, Bush by 46 to 41 percent and enjoys leads of 46 to 42 percent over both Carson and Fiorina.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) does the best in a head-to-head match-up against Biden, trailing by only one point, 44 to 43 percent.

In previous polls, Clinton held leads over all of those candidates except for Bush, who led 44 to 42 percent over Clinton in an August poll.

The Fox News survey also provides new evidence underlying Carson’s early strength.

Carson raised $20 million in the second quarter, which will likely be the biggest haul of any of the GOP contenders. He routinely attracts thousands of supporters on the campaign trail and is firmly in second place in polls of the Republican presidential nomination, trailing only Trump.

The poll found Clinton maintaining a healthy lead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, taking 45 percent support, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 25 percent and Biden at 19 percent.

That’s a bigger lead for Clinton than in the same poll from September, when the former secretary of State took 44 percent support, followed by Sanders at 30 and Biden at 18.

Biden has yet to decide whether to enter the race.

The Fox News poll of 1,004 registered voters was conducted between Oct. 10 and Oct. 12 and has a 3-percentage-point margin of error.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/256761-carson-holds-double-digit-lead-on-clinton-in-new-poll

[Dos Equis]

2016 Presidential Money Race: Third Quarter Filings

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2015-october-fec-filings/table/

[240 is Back]

2016 Presidential Money Race: Third Quarter Filings

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2015-october-fec-filings/table/

and repubs will spend that $ destroying each other.

At least the media/trump/hilary have decided to destroy Bernie early in the race so she can relax and enjoy the show as Trump, Carson, and the other idiots deny Cruz from doing an actual good job as the nominee.

"i was robbed at a popeyes chicken but I pointed to the cashier who never reported it".  What a load of shit.

[Dos Equis]

NBC/WSJ Poll: Carson, Clinton Tied in Head-to-Head Race

Image: NBC/WSJ Poll: Carson, Clinton Tied in Head-to-Head Race     
By Greg Richter
Tuesday, 03 Nov 2015

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the Democrats' presidential front-runner, is tied with one of the GOP's leading candidates, Ben Carson, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll.

According to the poll released Tuesday, Clinton and Carson each would garner 47 percent of the vote in a theoretical head-to-head matchup. The other GOP front-runner, Donald Trump, would lose to Clinton, as would other GOP candidates.

Clinton: 50 percent
Trump: 42 percent
 
Clinton: 47 percent
Marco Rubio: 44 percent
Clinton: 47 percent
Jeb Bush: 43 percent

Carson's stronger standing against Clinton is his higher favorability about independents, NBC News reported.

 Among independents:
•Carson: 47 percent
•Clinton: 37 percent
•Rubio: 42 percent
•Clinton 35 percent
•Bush: 41 percent
•Clinton: 37 percent
•Trump: 43 percent
•Clinton 39 percent

The poll was conducted October 25-29 among 847 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.
 
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/hillary-clinton-ben-carson-tied-favorability/2015/11/03/id/700405/#ixzz3qUDg9U4R

[Dos Equis]

SC poll: Carson unhurt by controversies
By Jonathan Swan
November 10, 2015



The negative media scrutiny over Ben Carson’s life story is not harming his popularity, with the retired neurosurgeon buoyant in a new poll, and South Carolinians declaring they do not care about the controversies.

Whether it is his scholarship offer to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, his unusual theory about pyramids, or his stories about being an angry and violent youth, South Carolina Republican voters remain untroubled, says a new survey by the liberal-leaning firm Public Policy Polling (PPP).

Carson holds his second place in the GOP field in S.C. with 21 percent of the vote — exactly where he stood in the September survey — placing him close behind billionaire front-runner Donald Trump, who has faded from 37 percent in the September poll to 25 percent in November.

Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are the only candidates to surge in the new poll, with Cruz now in third at 15 percent and Rubio a narrow fourth at 13 percent. Both senators have jumped 9 percentage points since PPP’s September poll. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush receives just 8 percent.

When GOP primary voters in S.C. were asked about Carson’s recent controversies, 65 percent told the pollsters that his violent youth — "including stabbing a friend and trying to hit his mother over the head with a hammer" — makes no difference to them one way or another. Nine percent said Carson’s violent youth would make them more likely to vote for him and only 22 percent said it would make them less likely.

Voters overwhelmingly disagree with Carson's theory that pyramids were built to store grain but it is not an issue that is costing him support, PPP adds.

“Donald Trump’s still up in South Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, president of PPP. “But he’s on the down swing when it comes to every metric that we use to measure his candidacy’s strength.

“Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are the candidates with momentum now, and Ben Carson isn’t being negatively affected by all the controversy with his campaign last week.”

On the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is struggling to make any impression on South Carolina voters. Front-runner Hillary Clinton is still crushing him in South Carolina, winning support from 72 percent of Democratic primary voters to Sanders’s 18 percent, PPP says.

In the September poll, Clinton led Sanders 66 percent to 12 percent when Vice President Joe Biden was removed from calculations, so the pollsters point out that her 54-point advantage over Sanders holds steady.

“Hillary Clinton’s long been dominant in South Carolina,” Debnam said.

“That made Friday’s MSNBC forum [hosted by Rachel Maddow] an important chance for Bernie Sanders and [former Gov.] Martin O’Malley [D-Md.] to change that. But instead it just reaffirmed Clinton’s overwhelming front-runner status in the state.”

Clinton’s biggest advantage over Sanders — and this is a weakness that is troubling the Sanders camp — is her popularity with African-American voters.

While Sanders has a good chance to win the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire — they are predominantly white electorates receptive to his revolutionary brand of progressivism — Sanders will face his first test with black voters in the S.C. primary. The PPP poll shows Clinton winning 86 percent of South Carolina’s African-American vote to 11 percent for Sanders.

O'Malley wins just 1 percent of the black vote and 5 percent overall in S.C., PPP says.

PPP surveyed 787 usual Republican primary voters and 400 usual Democratic primary voters on Nov. 7 and Nov. 8.  The margin of error for the Republicans is 3.5 percent and 4.9 percent for the Democrats.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/259669-sc-poll-carson-unhurt-by-controversies

[240 is Back]

Poll is 3 days old.  Repubkicans always change the mind after a week of rush and hannity and chat with their buddies.  

Give it 1.5 to 2 weeks.  See where Carson is then .   I've said this over and over. Polls lag by 10-14 days.  

[Primemuscle]

Controversy??? Since when getting caught in a bunch of lies a controversy? Don't sugar coat it, lying is lying. What this shows is that folks are very gullible. Did I ever tell you about the time I.....?

[240 is Back]

Controversy??? Since when getting caught in a bunch of lies a controversy? Don't sugar coat it, lying is lying. What this shows is that folks are very gullible. Did I ever tell you about the time I.....?

politico jumped the gun with the headline.

therefore we can cancel out the 8 proven lies from carson's book.

#GOPLogic

[Dos Equis]

In new shock poll, Sanders has landslides over both Trump and Bush
By Brent Budowsky, columnist, The Hill
November 11, 2015

In a new McClatchy-Marist poll, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leads Republican candidate Donald Trump by a landslide margin of 12 percentage points, 53 to 41. In the McClatchy poll, Sanders also leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) by a landslide margin of 10 points, 51 to 41.

The huge Sanders advantage over Trump is not new. In the last four match-up polls between them reported by Real Clear Politics, Sanders defeated Trump by margins of 12, 9, 9 and 2 percentage points.

The huge Sanders advantage over Bush is new. In previous match-ups, the polling showed Sanders and Bush running virtually even, with Bush holding a 1-point lead over Sanders in most of the polls. Future polls will be needed to test whether the huge Sanders lead over Bush in the McClatchy poll will be repeated in future polling or whether the McClatchy poll is an outlier.

It is shocking that the data suggests that Sanders has a lead over Trump that could be so huge that he would win a landslide victory in the presidential campaign, with margins that would almost certainly lead Democrats to regain control of the Senate and could help Democrats regain control of the House of Representative — if, of course, the three polls that show Sanders beating Trump by 9 to 12 points reflect final voting in the presidential election.

It would be equally shocking if future polling shows that the Sanders lead over Bush remains at landslide margins.

For today, there are two issues these polls present. First, the national reporting of the presidential campaign completely fails to reflect Sanders's strength in a general election, especially against Trump, and against Bush as well.

Second, and perhaps more important, Sanders's strength in general election polling gives credence to the argument I have been making in recent years, that American voters favor progressive populist positions which, if taken by Democrats in the general election, would lead to a progressive populist Democratic president and far greater Democratic strength in Congress.

It is a fallacy argued by conservatives and, in my view, inaccurately parroted by the mainstream media, that Sanders and other liberals take positions that are far too "left." The polling shows, issue by issue, and increasingly in general election match-ups of Republicans running against Sanders, that it is the left, not the right, which has the upper hand with American voters.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/259812-in-new-shock-poll-sanders-has-landslides-over-both

[Primemuscle]

politico jumped the gun with the headline.

therefore we can cancel out the 8 proven lies from carson's book.

#GOPLogic

One lie does it for me. Can't ever trust what someone says after that. Harsh, I know.

[Dos Equis]

One lie does it for me. Can't ever trust what someone says after that. Harsh, I know.

So you don't trust Hillary Clinton? 

[whork]

So you don't trust Hillary Clinton? 

If anyone thinks they can trust a politician they should get head examined.

An honest politician is like a unicorn or santa claus. A fairy tale.

[spotter]

We are all fucked regardless........If they had to contribute to their insurance like us mortals, I would think.....Maybe, we have a chance.....

[240 is Back]

good point - one lie and the person is a liar.

of course hilary is a liar and full of shit.  Not sure why hilary being a liar excuses Carson being a liar?