Dow Crash Coming To Your 401k

[SOMEPARTS]

I think that publicly traded businesses believe that this pandemic is temporary and have continued on somewhat normally.  The damage to small businesses is profound and continues, but small business owners don't want to work for others; they'll come back in some form.  It should never have come to this, but here we are.   

Local based services probably... but a lot of small and medium retail will never recover. Amazon just absorbed all that market share. This all hastened what has slowly been happening.

Regarding retail...no market share, no entrepreneurs in that space. Specialty retail and junk shops will survive if they avoid being a target...but it's not just a matter attracting the eyeballs of end users - it's the manufacturers and distros trying to stay afloat that become slaves to Amazon as well. If you can't source a product line that you did in 2019 then you aren't selling it.

These second shutdowns that are going on right now are ending even the strong hands in the bar and restaurant businesses. Centralization of goods and services is perfect for a reset to socialism.


EDIT

An October chart that shows retail headed back down when stimulus AKA helicopter money is shut off. Perfect excuse for minimum basic income. This stuff is all coming, too many useless eaters.

[loco]

The market makes zero sense. Plandemic, every small business closed down or on its last leg waiting to be shut down again, near civil war.... DOW 30k hahaha.

Never has, never will.  That's why, as this thread shows, nobody can predict what the stock market will do.  But the stock market has made millionaires out of hundreds of thousands of long term, passive investors who accept it for what it is and take advantage of what it has to offer.

[loco]

Dow surges more than 400 points, closes above 30,000 for the first time ever

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/23/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

2020 is NOT over.

Hold on tight.

-NT

[Humble Narcissist]

One of these days, when this thread is 1,000 pages long, there is going to be a crash.

[Howard]

One of these days, when this thread is 1,000 pages long, there is going to be a crash.

Hahahahahaha

Get Big HOF zinger !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

[Humble Narcissist]

Hahahahahaha

Get Big HOF zinger !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   

You've been warned.  Get your money out of the market now!  You may have only 20 years left before the crash.

[SOMEPARTS]

Never has, never will.  That's why, as this thread shows, nobody can predict what the stock market will do.  But the stock market has made millionaires out of hundreds of thousands of long term, passive investors who accept it for what it is and take advantage of what it has to offer.

Maybe so, but it's funny that nobody even cares about the fundamentals...I mean there are none. They keep changing the way things are measured to hide the bad news. The wave of default coming if they keep things locked down and don't do MBI will be unreal....that's not speculation. Small business has been decimated but it's not showing up in the numbers(yet). Even the radio host perma bulls say commercial real estate and retail supply chains will never recover...let's not even discuss bars and restaurants...but crickets.

I have said before this devaluation and debt could go on  for 50 years, but things are happening at a much quicker pace due to the involved technology and intention to change to socialism.

Here is actual socialism knocking on the door but we have all these fat and happy 401k capitalists who think they are immune. 

[loco]

Maybe so, but it's funny that nobody even cares about the fundamentals...I mean there are none. They keep changing the way things are measured to hide the bad news. The wave of default coming if they keep things locked down and don't do MBI will be unreal....that's not speculation. Small business has been decimated but it's not showing up in the numbers(yet). Even the radio host perma bulls say commercial real estate and retail supply chains will never recover...let's not even discuss bars and restaurants...but crickets.

I have said before this devaluation and debt could go on  for 50 years, but things are happening at a much quicker pace due to the involved technology and intention to change to socialism.

Here is actual socialism knocking on the door but we have all these fat and happy 401k capitalists who think they are immune. 

Meh, we had communism knocking on the door and a real threat of nuclear holocaust for 44 years.  Same crap, different day.

[SOMEPARTS]

Meh, we had communism knocking on the door and a real threat of nuclear holocaust for 44 years.  Same crap, different day.

Ever seen this happen before? Haha. Melt ups have happened but this is a bit ridiculous.

A company that never made a profit worth more than a company that made 80 billion last year and holds real assets with a 50 year track record of beating the street.

[loco]

Ever seen this happen before? Haha. Melt ups have happened but this is a bit ridiculous.

A company that never made a profit worth more than a company that made 80 billion last year and holds real assets with a 50 year track record of beating the street.

You mean like unprofitable Amazon beating profitable giant Walmart?  Not the same, but similar.  And that's not even the point.

As I told you on a previous post, we will always see new things, new patterns emerge.  That is one of the reasons nobody can predict which way the markets will go.  By the time the sharpest fund managers and investors have figured out a current pattern, and thus possibly beat the index one or two years in a row, a new pattern immerges replacing the old one.  And that's when these sharp fund managers and investors lose and can no longer beat the index.

That is about the only thing we can predict about the markets, that new patterns will emerge to replace old ones.

Thus seeing new patterns replace old ones is same crap, different day.

[loco]

[SOMEPARTS]

You mean like unprofitable Amazon beating profitable giant Walmart?  Not the same, but similar.  And that's not even the point.


Thus seeing new patterns replace old ones is same crap, different day.

Poor analogy for multiple reasons, not similar enough to make the point. There is a difference between having no profits and intentionally obscuring profits.

The trend is more fake numbers papering over everything until it doesn't, which is NOT the same as it has been.

These "sharp" fund managers are just buying with abandon at this point - they aren't fiduciary geniuses they have their eye on commissions.

[loco]

Poor analogy for multiple reasons, not similar enough to make the point. There is a difference between having no profits and intentionally obscuring profits.

The trend is more fake numbers papering over everything until it doesn't, which is NOT the same as it has been.

These "sharp" fund managers are just buying with abandon at this point - they aren't fiduciary geniuses they have their eye on commissions.

Unprofitable, relatively new and small at the time, Amazon beating profitable, well established giant Walmart?  Nah, not a poor example at all, and plenty similar.  It was the latest new thing at the time.  Now Tesla is.

Tesla is not the same as Amazon, but it's also not completely unprofitable.  Tesla has had four consecutive quarters of profits, beating expectations.

Is Tesla's stock overvalued?  Is it going to crash soon?  Possibly.  Not a problem for people who invest long term in low cost index funds that cover well over 11,000 companies in the US and abroad, and well over 9,900 US bonds.

I believe you misunderstood me regarding fund managers.  No, they are not fiduciary geniuses, but that's irrelevant.  I think of them as hardened criminals, who take your money with their commissions and managed fund high fees in exchange for negligible to no benefit.  I always recommend low cost index funds instead.

[TheGrinch]

USD  going to ZERO


buy commodities?

[Humble Narcissist]

USD  going to ZERO


buy commodities?

Forex.

[TheGrinch]

Forex.

Trying to figure out how to protect myself since I'm feeling the dollar is going to get crushed in the coming years.


Everything should inflate no?

So buying homes, stocks, gold, oil, etc.. should be good instead of being in cash?

[Humble Narcissist]

Trying to figure out how to protect myself since I'm feeling the dollar is going to get crushed in the coming years.


Everything should inflate no?

So buying homes, stocks, gold, oil, etc.. should be good instead of being in cash?

The most important thing is to have a paid off house.  Next have a gold star health insurance policy as one injury or illness can wipe out decades of investments.  Long term care insurance for anyone over 60.  Foreign currency, cryptos, gold, stocks and bonds with anything left over.

[SOMEPARTS]

The most important thing is to have a paid off house.  Next have a gold star health insurance policy as one injury or illness can wipe out decades of investments.  Long term care insurance for anyone over 60.  Foreign currency, cryptos, gold, stocks and bonds with anything left over.

No disagreement from me except the foreign currency. Dollar is the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry. The trick will be finding things that throw off some real time income as well as hedging against inflation. The deflation risk dead ...as seen this year will just be papered over with direct stimulus to consumers if need be.

[SOMEPARTS]

Is irrational exuberance in play or is nothing the same with the govt and fed backstopping the market?



   “Our sense is that the idea of no alternatives to buying broad-based equities has led to an overshoot,”

    “Current euphoric readings signal a 100% probability of losing money in the coming 12 months if we study historical patterns – indeed, we saw such levels back in early September as well right before a selloff in stocks.”


- Tobias Levkovich CITIGROUP chief U.S. equity strategist.

[SOMEPARTS]

Not a problem for people who invest long term in low cost index funds that cover well over 11,000 companies in the US and abroad, and well over 9,900 US bonds.

Yes, things are supposed to go up and down but timing of exit is everything. I would not want to around retirement age right now.

[loco]

Yes, things are supposed to go up and down but timing of exit is everything. I would not want to around retirement age right now.

Prudent, long term passive investors have no retirement age.  They plan their retirement decades in advance and retire when they are ready.  Their asset allocation and cash reserves make it so that they can retire even as a recession is just getting started, or they have the luxury to wait until the recession is over if they want to.

But yes, if you are "forced" to retire for any reason before you are ready, and your asset allocation and cash reserves are not ideal, and this happens in a recession, then you are screwed.

If one wants exceptional returns, one must take some risk.  There are no guarantees, other than death and taxes.

[AbrahamG]

My 401K has really thrived since Biden and Harris became President and Vice President-elect.  Thank you Donald for mishandling the virus and running a petty, bitter, juvenile campaign.

[loco]

My 401K has really thrived since Biden and Harris became President and Vice President-elect.  Thank you Donald for mishandling the virus and running a petty, bitter, juvenile campaign.

Nope, the stock market has gone up thanks to hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine available before yearend as promised by Trump.  Democrats and their media laughed at Trump and said it would take a miracle for that to happen.

[AbrahamG]

Nope, the stock market has gone up thanks to hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine available before yearend as promised by Trump.  Democrats and their media laughed at Trump and said it would take a miracle for that to happen.

Exactly.  The hope for the vaccine was inspired by the Election of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.  MAEGA!

[loco]

Exactly.  The hope for the vaccine was inspired by the Election of Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.  MAEGA!

Sure it was...lol