Author Topic: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.  (Read 196243 times)

Soul Crusher

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1175 on: February 23, 2022, 01:00:30 PM »
JPMorgan Publishes Terrifying Take On What Ukraine Crisis Will Do To Commodity Prices
Nation And State ^ | 2-23-2022
Posted on 2/23/2022, 3:57:29 PM by


So far western media has been relatively silent on what the escalating Ukraine crisis means for western consumers when it comes to prices for everyday commodities such as oil, gas, wheat, corn (and gold, for the goldbugs), and with good reason: as the Russian ambassador warned, “ordinary Americans” are about to feel the pain. As such it is understandable that the pro-Biden media is hoping to avoid discussing the consequences to America’s checkbook from the escalation in Ukraine: after all, the last thing hundreds of millions of Americans want to hear is that already sky high prices are about to get even higher.

JPMorgan’s commodity desk, however, has no such political considerations and in a must-read note published earlier today by the bank’s commodity strategist team led by Natasha Kaneva (available to pro subs in the usual place), the bank writes that “geopolitical escalation over the last few days has materially increased the risk of further aggravating commodity market imbalances. At this stage of the conflict, it is hard to see a path towards an easy de-escalation.” Consequently, JPM now expects “a steady rise of tensions in Ukraine and a corresponding intensification of sanctions from the West.” In that case, the bank warns that “the world could see an extended period of elevated geopolitical tensions and high risk premium in all commodities given Russia’s far reaching impact on global commodities markets.“

First, JPMorgan looks at what the impact on oil could be and it’s not pretty.

Confirming what we wrote just two days ago in “Oil Prices Will Be Above $100 For A “Prolonged Period“, Kaneva notes that Russia has always been a reliable supplier of oil, even at the height of the Cold War, she warns that if the market begins to price a probability that things have changed and Russia may take retaliatory measures by reducing its energy exports, a four-month disruption of 2.9 mbd of Russian export volumes to Europe and the US, will likely see the Brent oil price averaging $115/bbl in 2Q22, $105/bbl in 3Q22 and $95/bbl by 4Q22.

While that is certainly a downside case (if not nearly as bad as a full-blown war, which JPM recently predicted could lead to $150 oil and a global recession driven by soaring inflation ) JPM notes that even as bilateral relations have soured, Russian diplomats have continued working with European and US counterparts to revive the Iran nuclear agreement, signaling a deal may soon be reached. As such, a return of Iranian volumes could bring about 180 mn bbls of oil to the market, offsetting some of the estimated Russian supply shock. Assuming Russian escalation is coupled with an Iranian deal, JPM sees the Brent oil price averaging $110/bbl in 2Q22, $100/bbl in 3Q22 and $90/bbl in 4Q22, which is also the bank’s new base case view (for comparison, an Iranian deal with fading geopolitical risks would likely produce an average Brent oil price of $90/bbl in 1H22, with prices declining to $88/bbl in 3Q22 and $86 by 4Q22).

Things get scarier when looking at European gas prices, where JPM now revises its summer 2022 TTF price forecast to 77.50 EUR/MWh “to reflect the evolving geopolitical risks of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.” While current fundamentals suggest softness for TTF price in the offing (as per JPM’s previously published price forecast), the bank notes that it can “no longer avoid the risk premium of a supply disruption that could manifest with this geopolitical crisis.”

And with both Germany and now Joe Biden removing the prospect of Nord Stream 2 commencing in 2022, an in-service date for the pipeline in 2023 could create a reprieve for TTF price; however, based on statements made by the European Union and the US, the probability that Nord Stream 2 does NOT commence in 2023 is increasing, and as JPM calculates, “if Nord Stream 2 does NOT commence in 2023, we would expect the European natural gas market to find itself in a perpetual competition for LNG, ultimately manifesting in higher prices for longer.”



Stepping away from oil and gas, JPM next looks at base metals where inventories are already running extremely low, and as Marko Kolanovic warned yesterday, “there is very little additional cushion for further supply disruptions—either from Russia directly or via higher-for-longer gas and power prices. With Chinese demand already looking set for a strong post-CNY rebound, boosted Russian risk premium adds further bullish fuel to industrial metals complex in the coming quarters.” As such, JPMorgan boosts its 2Q22 forecasts to $3,550/t for aluminum, $26,500/t for nickel, $10,650/t for copper and $3,650/t for zinc.



Gold is also not immune to the upcoming commodity shortage, and safe-haven buying on the back of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict has further driven gold’s ytd decoupling with real-yields with gold now trading around $250/oz rich vs the current level of US 10yr real yields



According to JPM, the elevated Russian risk premium in the coming quarters likely means this premium will be sustained much longer than the bank previously envisioned, blunting golds fall amidst higher rates, and as such JPM now boosts uts full year 2022 gold price average by 11% to $1,808/oz.

An even bigger price shock hides in palladium, where according to JPM, the risk to a disruption in Russian PGM supply is immense, with the country accounting for ~12% of global platinum mine supply and ~40% of global palladium supply. As such, JPM now sees palladium continuing to gain sharply over the coming months and averaging around $2,650/oz in 2Q22 while platinum gains to average $1,150/oz next quarter

But wait, there’s more, with JPM next warning that the unfolding conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains the primary driver and upside risk factor for agri markets. The outlook for increased Brent crude oil prices over the quarters ahead is a materially supportive factor for the sector, raising the opportunity costs for biofuels and increasing production costs further, at a time of critical inventory tightness. Our agri price forecasts have been revised higher across much of the agri complex. Translation: your food is about to get much more expensive.

Of course, the timing of any potential disruption in grain exports from Russia or Ukraine will dictate the extent of risk premium across exposed agricultural markets, especially CBOT Wheat and CBOT Corn. In the event of export disruptions to Russian wheat-outside of the existing old crop quota, JPM sees CBOT Wheat tracking to the bank’s high case price scenario of 950 – 1,100 USc/bu. Not surprisingly, wheat today is soaring and has just hit the highest level since 2012. Expect it to reach fresh all time highs in the days ahead.



Finally, while disruptions to Ukrainian corn exports is a perceived lower risk, critical tightness in exportable supplies drive asymmetric risk to the upside and we see CBOT Corn trading in a 700 -900 USc/bu range under this scenario.


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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1178 on: February 24, 2022, 12:35:03 AM »
Jericho Green nails it again.




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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1181 on: February 24, 2022, 04:31:03 AM »
"Vladimir Putin doesn’t want me to be President. He doesn’t want me to be our nominee. If you’re wondering why — it’s because I’m the only person in this field who’s ever gone toe-to-toe with him."

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) February 21, 2020


Uh huh . . . .  >:( :(

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1182 on: February 24, 2022, 05:08:15 AM »
 :D

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1183 on: February 24, 2022, 06:44:56 AM »
Biden's moment of infamy: hollow pledges on the eve of Russia's attack on Ukraine
https://justthenews.com ^ | By John Solomon Updated: February 24, 2022 - 1:15am
Posted on 2/24/2022, 8:36:41 AM by Red Badger

News Analysis: President's vow to 'defend every inch of NATO territory' meant nothing to Ukraine, which isn't part of the alliance.

=========================================================================================

Each American president is judged by his command in moments of crisis. For Lincoln, it was the address at Gettysburg. Roosevelt made his mark after Pearl Harbor. Kennedy endured the Cuban missile crisis. And George W. Bush rallied a stunned nation from a smoldering pile at Ground Zero.

While much history remains to be written for Joe Biden's presidency, the start of Russia's military aggression against Ukraine may be defined years from now by extraordinary moments of infamy. They are ones likely to have escaped the notice of most Americans, but ones that shook the confidence of allies and security professionals alike.

In his final speech Tuesday imploring Vladimir Putin to forego a planned invasion of Ukraine, Biden took military action by the United States off the table while offering a hollow pledge so detached from geopolitical reality that it stunned some in the diplomatic world.

"We have no intention of fighting Russia," Biden declared. "We want to send an unmistakable message, though, that the United States, together with our allies, will defend every inch of NATO territory and abide by the commitments we made to NATO."

To Americans it may have sounded like a statement of resolve. But to the trained eye, the proclamation was undercut by the fact that Ukraine — the object of Putin's aggression — is neither a member of NATO nor in its protection zone.

While Biden's assurance provided comfort to neighbors that are NATO members like the Czech Republic and Poland, it was taken by many in Ukraine as a final concession that Kiev was on its own and that Putin could advance his military plan with the threat of economic sanctions as the lone consequence.

"At this point, this is a problem for Eastern Europe, between Russia and the Ukraine and the rest of Europe," retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness, a security expert, told Just the News. "It is not a NATO problem at this point, because Mr. Putin has not threatened a NATO country.

"A lot of people try to conflate Ukraine as a NATO country, they are not even close to being eligible to come into NATO, and haven't been invited. And Mr. Biden, rightly so ... he repeatedly says we will defend every inch of NATO territory, and Vladimir Putin knows that. He knows that he spends a fraction of what NATO and the United States spend on defense and we have them outnumbered, out-teched."

Biden's handling of the Russia-Ukraine crisis has drawn multiple rebukes, starting with a decision in the early days of his presidency when he revoked permission for the Keystone pipeline in America while giving Putin a long-sought U.S. blessing for Russia's Nordstream II pipeline in Europe.

That move changed the geopolitical equation for Russia, whose economy is one-dimensionaly dependent on energy exports. Suddenly, American and Western counterparts were made more reliant on Russian energy, and Putin's often-stretched treasury fattened with rising oil prices.

Then Biden made another blunder, suggesting he was ready for Putin to make a "minor incursion" into Ukraine. He had to retract the statement within a day as it looked to be a permission slip for Putin to take action in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Biden's reversals have continued. On Wednesday, he sanctioned the very Nordstream II pipeline he had approved, exposing for critics the folly of his earlier approval.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told Just the News that he believes Biden set the stage for Russian aggression with the pipeline decisions followed by the bungled U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

"He's weak," Norman said of Biden. "This would have never happened under President Trump. All we get is words from this administration."

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.), who has visited Ukraine often over the years, agreed.

"Just about every action President Biden has taken has weakened America and emboldened our enemies,” he said. "They're very optimistic. They're very aggressive. When they sense weakness, they're going to act, and that's what we're seeing right now."

The resignation that America has yielded some of its superiority and is seeking peace through appeasement was most notable in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that in 1994 at historic meetings in Budapest agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in return for a promise of U.S. protection.

Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky took several swipes at the Biden administration as the Russian aggression moved closer, questioning why America was waiting to impose sanctions on Putin and even suggesting Ukraine might need to acquire its own nuclear weapons by ending the Budapest accords.

"We have ... the right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees," Zelensky declared.

"What are you waiting for?" he asked at the Munich Security Conference earlier this week. "We don't need your sanctions after" the economy collapses and "parts of our country will be occupied."

Zelensky's question will reverberate for days until the extent and intent of Putin's attack become clear.

Most experts believe Putin's bombings in Kyiv and other cities early Thursday were simply to degrade air defenses and allow Russians to create a large security perimeter around the Russian-dominated Donbas region, which Russia has now declared to be an independent country.

But the final answer to Zelensky's question will define how history defines Biden's handling of this crisis.

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1184 on: February 24, 2022, 08:01:28 AM »
You’re On Your Own: State Dept. to Americans in Ukraine
https://www.toddstarnes.com ^ | 24 FEBRUARY 2022 | Staff
Posted on 2/24/2022, 10:42:26 AM by Red Badger

The State Department issued a security alert early Thursday morning reminding Americans in Ukraine that the United States will not be helping citizens evacuate.

The announcement to “remain vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness” echoes the Biden administration’s response to the chaos in Afghanistan when the Taliban took over last year.

“The U.S. government will not be able to evacuate U.S. citizens from Ukraine,” the warning read.

“Know the location of your closest shelter or protected space,” the department told Americans.

Tulsi Gabbard: Russia’s Attack on Ukraine ‘Could Have Easily Been Avoided’ by Biden

“In the event of mortar and/or rocket fire, follow the instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately,” it added. “If you feel that your current location is no longer safe, you should carefully assess the potential risks involved in moving to a different location.”

National radio host Todd Starnes slammed Biden for the announcement.

“State Dept. tells Americans in Ukraine that they are on their own,” Starnes tweeted. “Biden leaves everyone behind.”

State Dept. tells Americans in Ukraine that they are on their own. Biden leaves everyone behind. #Ukraine

— toddstarnes (@toddstarnes) February 24, 2022 The State Department said it has suspended consular operations in Lviv in western Ukraine amid “reports of Russian attacks on targets in a number of major Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mariupol and others.”

Biden Responds to Russia’s ‘Unjustified’ Attack on Ukraine, Lays Out U.S. Response

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv suspended operations earlier this month.

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1185 on: February 24, 2022, 08:24:42 AM »

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1186 on: February 24, 2022, 08:39:35 AM »

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1187 on: February 24, 2022, 08:42:30 AM »
Biden Announces He Will Move To Unfollow Putin On Twitter
Babylon Bee ^ | 02/24/2022 | Babylon Bee
Posted on 2/24/2022, 11:23:48 AM by DFG

WASHINGTON, D.C.—After Putin led Russia in an unprovoked attack on Ukraine, Biden addressed the world and outlined the steps he'd take to stop Russia from rampaging through Eastern Europe.

"Listen, folks, I was hoping I wouldn't have to do this, today I directed my social media manager to unfollow Putin on Twitter," said Biden. "That Putin guy is a major internet influencer and we need to hit him where it hurts. We have no other choice. God have mercy on us."

Biden then directed his staff to "unfollow" President Putin on Twitter, warning that if Putin doesn't stop what he's doing, he will also "unfriend" him on Facebook.

"You want to have no friends, Vlad? 'Cause that's where you're headed, buddy! That's no fun! Trust me, I know! You'd better watch your step, bud!" Biden said angrily before tripping on the carpet of his house and faceplanting into his bronze bust of Neville Chamberlain.

Biden has promised to engage in further talks with world leaders once aides finish changing his Depends.





 ;D

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1188 on: February 24, 2022, 08:52:44 AM »

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1189 on: February 24, 2022, 08:53:47 AM »
John Kerry fears Russia-Ukraine war will distract from climate change
FOX News ^ | February 24, 2022 | By Jessica Chasmar
Posted on 2/24/2022, 11:44:41


President Biden’s climate czar, John Kerry, warned Wednesday that Russia’s war against Ukraine is going to distract the world from the climate change crisis and produce "massive emissions" that will negatively impact the globe.

"I'm concerned about Ukraine because of the people of Ukraine and because of the principles that are at risk, in terms of international law and trying to change boundaries of international law by force," Kerry, the U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, said in an interview on BBC Arabic, MEMRI reported Wednesday. "I thought we lived in a world that had said no to that kind of activity. And I hope diplomacy will win."

"But massive emissions consequences to the war – but equally importantly, you're going to lose people's focus, you're going to lose certainly big country attention because they will be diverted and I think it could have a damaging impact," he continued. "So, you know, I think hopefully President Putin would realize that in the northern part of his country, they used to live on 66% of the nation that was over frozen land."

"Now it's thawing, and his infrastructure is at risk," he added. "And the people of Russia are at risk. And so I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate."

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...



 ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D

Amazing 

Princess L

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1190 on: February 24, 2022, 09:58:03 AM »
:

Gym-Rat

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1191 on: February 24, 2022, 10:20:50 AM »
john kerry
biggest phony moron in ma political history
record for the most "not present" etc
leaves dying wife for heinz fortune
lying about vietnam and everything else
hopefully another one dead soon

real phony
another hero to the libtards

Official records show Kerry not present for at least 78% of public hearings held during his eight years on the panel.

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1192 on: February 24, 2022, 10:25:35 AM »
John Kerry fears Russia-Ukraine war will distract from climate change
FOX News ^ | February 24, 2022 | By Jessica Chasmar
Posted on 2/24/2022, 11:44:41


President Biden’s climate czar, John Kerry, warned Wednesday that Russia’s war against Ukraine is going to distract the world from the climate change crisis and produce "massive emissions" that will negatively impact the globe.

"I'm concerned about Ukraine because of the people of Ukraine and because of the principles that are at risk, in terms of international law and trying to change boundaries of international law by force," Kerry, the U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, said in an interview on BBC Arabic, MEMRI reported Wednesday. "I thought we lived in a world that had said no to that kind of activity. And I hope diplomacy will win."

"But massive emissions consequences to the war – but equally importantly, you're going to lose people's focus, you're going to lose certainly big country attention because they will be diverted and I think it could have a damaging impact," he continued. "So, you know, I think hopefully President Putin would realize that in the northern part of his country, they used to live on 66% of the nation that was over frozen land."

"Now it's thawing, and his infrastructure is at risk," he added. "And the people of Russia are at risk. And so I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate."

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...



 ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D

Amazing

The lack of prioritizing (and this is by no means a priority) and utter incompetence with this administration is absolutely mind numbing

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1193 on: February 24, 2022, 10:27:41 AM »
Sleepy will take Vlad behind the woodshed for a lickin' like he gave Corn Pop.

Get the tire chain ready, Sleepy.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1194 on: February 24, 2022, 12:00:33 PM »

Primemuscle

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1195 on: February 24, 2022, 12:11:43 PM »




He's got my sympathy. I know what it is like to have a cough you cannot control.

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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1196 on: February 24, 2022, 12:17:05 PM »
Destroyed.  Biden and Obama are two lying scam artists.


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Re: Biden failures, corruption, destruction, and collapse Thread.
« Reply #1197 on: February 24, 2022, 06:51:03 PM »
The lack of prioritizing (and this is by no means a priority) and utter incompetence with this administration is absolutely mind numbing
It just amazes me, the shit that comes out of their mouths.

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