Author Topic: Current Electoral Map based on Polling  (Read 751 times)

Thin Lizzy

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Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« on: March 30, 2024, 09:30:38 AM »
I wouldnít bank on PA, but I donít think Trump will need it. At this time in 2020, Biden was polling 8  percentage points better in the National averages than he is now. Thatís fact, not opinion. While, not a sure thing, I donít think anything an incapacitated Biden or his people can do between now and November will help.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2024, 09:35:59 AM »
April 2020:


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump?cid=ios_app

Biden leads Trump 53% to 42% among registered voters, roughly steady from CNNís poll in early March. The nationwide picture shows Biden starts with an edge among voters generally, but national polling cannot address the state-by-state electoral college race which ultimately determines the presidency.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2024, 09:39:54 AM »
April 2024:


deadz

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2024, 11:24:05 AM »
I wouldnít bank on PA, but I donít think Trump will need it. At this time in 2020, Biden was polling 8  percentage points better in the National averages than he is now. Thatís fact, not opinion. While, not a sure thing, I donít think anything an incapacitated Biden or his people can do between now and November will help.
That's A LOT of RED!
T

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2024, 02:40:00 PM »
That's A LOT of RED!

Biden is underperforming everywhere. In 2020, NY Polls had him up 30. He won by 23.

This time around Biden is only up 10 in the polls with the full field:

NY might be a less than 10 point win for the Dems.


Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2024, 02:41:05 PM »
2020


Gym Rat

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2024, 03:49:17 PM »
80+ year old men in a power battle.
Sad that the county's this fukked and there are no good/experienced people in either party.
They all suck glory-hole caulk like that disgusting caulk-sukker Prime... Deviant libturd fukktard...


Primemuscle

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2024, 05:09:41 PM »
80+ year old men in a power battle.
Sad that the county's this fukked and there are no good/experienced people in either party.
They all suck glory-hole caulk like that disgusting caulk-sukker Prime... Deviant libturd fukktard...



Since when were inmates in the psycho ward at the state mental hospital allowed to use pencils? It looks like you could not find anything but a used paper bag to write this stupid little piece of juvenile crap on. You are a sad, sad deranged psychotic idiot. I almost feel sorry for you. On second thought... 

deadz

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #8 on: April 01, 2024, 02:24:52 PM »
MAGA
T

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2024, 05:03:55 PM »
I donít see much changing going forward. Given that Biden is fucking up on an almost daily basis with the latest being turning Easter into Tranny day, IMO the probabilities favor his underperforming the polls in November especially given the third party candidates which certainly will hurt Biden.

chaos

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #10 on: April 01, 2024, 05:28:14 PM »
Polls are gay and useless. They'll manipulate the electronic machines to their liking the night of the election. ;)
Liar!!!!Filt!!!!

Grape Ape

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #11 on: April 01, 2024, 05:40:36 PM »
The SC f'd up things for Republicans by overturning Roe v Wade.
Y

Agnostic007

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #12 on: April 01, 2024, 08:15:51 PM »
Polls are gay and useless. They'll manipulate the electronic machines to their liking the night of the election. ;)

No... but I agree that this far out polls are useless

Agnostic007

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2024, 08:23:57 PM »
Looking at the 538 polling site... It appears at this point to be a toss up. I think that likely reflects the current situation. I wouldn't put a dime on the election outcome at this point without some really good odds.

I'm not a fan of Biden. Too old, hasn't really accomplished much, though some of that isn't on him. But overall, a mediocre President

Trump.. I'm obviously in the minority on this, but it's my opinion his total lack of protocol, ethics, morals, humanity, self awareness, would be more destructive than the alternative.

But, if Trump wins, I'll be damned if I will spend 4 years like some claiming some magical interference. If America wants Trump, so be it. I'm one voice.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2024, 06:08:15 AM »
Looking at the 538 polling site... It appears at this point to be a toss up. I think that likely reflects the current situation. I wouldn't put a dime on the election outcome at this point without some really good odds.

I'm not a fan of Biden. Too old, hasn't really accomplished much, though some of that isn't on him. But overall, a mediocre President

Trump.. I'm obviously in the minority on this, but it's my opinion his total lack of protocol, ethics, morals, humanity, self awareness, would be more destructive than the alternative.

But, if Trump wins, I'll be damned if I will spend 4 years like some claiming some magical interference. If America wants Trump, so be it. I'm one voice.

I get it that you hate Trump but Iím looking strictly at the numbers without editorializing. Trump is ahead in every swing state. Sure things can change but Itís currently not a toss up.

Grape Ape

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2024, 07:28:45 AM »
I still don't think Trump will get elected.

Female housewives and liberal jewish folks will once again vote against their own best interests.
Y

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2024, 10:22:56 AM »
I still don't think Trump will get elected.

Female housewives and liberal jewish folks will once again vote against their own best interests.

Trump has closed the gap with women and has expanded it with men.

Most Jews are in States that Biden would win anyway: NY & CA.

Again, Iím going strictly by the numbers.


NBC is absurdly liberal:


https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/2024-gender-gap-grows-not-bidens-direction-rcna137232

In 2020, Biden won female voters by 15 points (57% to 42%), while then-President Donald Trump won men by 8 points (53% to 45%), according to the NBC News exit poll.

But in our latest national NBC News poll, the gender gap has grown to 32 points: Biden is winning women by 10 (50% to 40%), and Trump is now ahead among men by a whopping 22 points (56% to 34%).

deadz

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2024, 11:51:22 AM »
I still don't think Trump will get elected.

Female housewives and liberal jewish folks will once again vote against their own best interests.
If so, goes to show how truly stupid most of America is. Theyíd rather suffer than elect the the ďOrange manĒ.
T

Agnostic007

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2024, 11:57:57 PM »
I get it that you hate Trump but Iím looking strictly at the numbers without editorializing. Trump is ahead in every swing state. Sure things can change but Itís currently not a toss up.

I'm a gambler... no emotion in this. 538 is saying a toss up. If you have information that says otherwise I'm open to it. I'm resigned to the possibility this could go either way.. but if you think it is not a toss up... I'm listening

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #19 on: April 03, 2024, 12:11:54 AM »
No... but I agree that this far out polls are useless
Yeah, a lot will happen between now and November.

Gym Rat

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #20 on: April 03, 2024, 02:43:34 AM »
I still don't think Trump will get elected.

Female housewives and liberal jewish folks will once again vote against their own best interests.

Same, too corrupt, and too much insanity out there. The new thing is to hate oneself and hate America.

I think both guys need to go away and out to pasture now.
It's a very embarrassing "race"...

IMO things have settled as far as financial things (mostly) like 401K's, gas is OK, etc...
So I dont think the shitter admin can do much worse as far as some of that is concerned.
Other stuff like sending billions off to war, yeah, that's horrible bullshit. And all the tranny nonsense.
A bit disturbing. And the immigration (lack of) kills us. Crime, drugs, trafficking, etc.

But cmon, 4 more years of hilarity with the shitter. And think of all the poems, meme's and shit I can still post up!!!   :o

"Cmon man, you know the thing"!!!

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2024, 05:13:23 AM »
Yeah, a lot will happen between now and November.

Letís say youíre going to bet the Super Bowl winner at the start of NFL preseason. Yeah a lot can change. You have 30 teams and some are going to under perform others will out perform and of course you have injuries.

In this case, you only have two candidates, and theyíre both very known quantities. Other than one of them possibly dying not much is going to change.

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2024, 05:19:36 AM »
This is the first poll Iíve seen from Jersey:

Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2024, 05:22:21 AM »
Biden won the state by 16 in 2020. Heís gonna win it again but the pattern of Biden underperforming everywhere has been consistent:



Thin Lizzy

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Re: Current Electoral Map based on Polling
« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2024, 04:18:12 PM »
Apparently, Jill Biden was on a morning show and freaked when presented with these polls: