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George w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
Our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
In the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
Cash is king !
- NT
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So what is your solution for those of us who have 401k through work? I have my portfolio managed through JP Morgan.
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So what is your solution for those of us who have 401k through work? I have my portfolio managed through JP Morgan.
Move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
Preservation of capital is key. If you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
-NT
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if you decide to stay in stocks for the time being......definitely get OUT after Christmas. the shit will surely hit the fan after the holiday.....if not sooner.
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remember markets don't go straight down...... i expect a rally this week.
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I lost my shirt last week. :'(
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I lost my shirt last week. :'(
as i said this morning i expect the maket to rally this week..........then i expect it to sell off again and go lower. today is an expected short cover rally which will not change the long term trend of the market.....which is down.
right now cash is king.
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What are your qualifications? I know there are several multi-millionaires on here but I never see any advice. ???
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
cash = paper largely not backed up by anything but someones word
most people's word = dog crap
better to look to something with intrinsic value
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market will keep doing what its doing. Oil at $100 a barrel is not a bad thing. We do have reserves, and it keeps the dollar viable. Iraqi oil has been pumping for 4 years. Where it goes, no one knows hahahahahahaha
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The dollar is kept low voluntarily by the feds to cut on the trade deficit and control inflation;
70% of our nations GDP is consumer consumption. since our nation no longer manufactures, we are dependent on a STRONG consumer. a weak dollar INCREASES inflation which lessens Americans buying power. the weak greenback may increase exports but never enough to offset the weak u.s. consumer.
record u.s deficits, a weak dollar, negative consumer savings, high inflation, record gas/oil prices (in none peak season) coupled with Americans no longer able to use their homes as a.t.m. machines spells disaster for a service economy such as ours.
the perfect storm is brewing........
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The major problem for USA is that the real estate market will continue to be colder than ice.
Here is the thing:
Currently a house will take 12 months to be sold. And that is if NO more new houses are built.
4 years ago, it was 2-3 months.
So different sectors experiences difficulties.
The big problem is that the taxes were lowered a few years ago, allowing the economy to overheat.
Lowering taxes with a huge national debt.
Instead of curbing the economic boom back then with taxes, and lowering the taxes now, when the economy is slowing down.
In essence: The Bush Administration has created a situation where there is no room for economic politics, to boost a slowing market.
Fiscally unresponsible.
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like stocks in a downtrend ? ::)
no. what is a stock?
something that represents ownership of something
stock = dog crap
im saying its possible at some point all these pieces of paper with promises behind them could end up being worthless
commodities are where its at
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please tell me the qualifications necessary to know markets ? would an MBA or being someone who trades in the pits make you happy?
book smart or in the trenches........which one W88 ?
Post your portfolio and your earning percentage over the last 5 years. Then I will take your advice more seriously. Right now everybody and their trashman can give a 50/50 guess. Up or Down. Buy or Sell.
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everyone keep in mind that floor traders at the NYSE make LARGE amounts of money with holiday bonuses. historically, 83% of the time traders move the market HIGHER during the "christmas rally". until proven otherwise, you should expect this to happen.
a damaged market can still trade higher, but the long term trend is DOWN.
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50/50 huh ? clearly you believe i'm full of crap.......so move on. i was attempting to help other getbiggers in the market, so they wouldn't get slaughtered. what do i personally gain by providing gbers info that might save their 401k's ? ???
No I don't think you are full of crap but when it comes to my future earnings and losses I HAVE to take it serious. It is great you want to help and I know you do not gain anything by helping but on the other hand I don't know what people gain by all the crap that gets spewed out on GetBig. I cannot help but be a skeptic. If you could just lead me to some of the facts that lead you to this conclusion then I can read on my own. I know nothing about markets. I just dump money in 401k and trust JP Morgan will do their job. This year I have had a 26% increase. The average in 3 years has been 20%.
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Thanks for posting. :)
Sounds like I may move my funds to something else in the near future.
You should make a new topic when it is time to make the move so I know the best time...lol.
Thanks again for your assessments.
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
The stock market will come crashing down, ...and fortunes will be made in the process! ;D
Cash is King, ...but these days... what is cash? Paper money? Surely you're not refering to USD demoninated Federal Reserve notes? {rotflmao} they've got the buoyancy of lead balloons.
Better to refer to cash as easily liquidatable assets. Euros, Gold, Wheat, or some other such easily liquidatable assets for which demand will never wane. Get out of stocks and into commodities, ...unless you're a good stock picker (which most ordinary investors aren't) and know which position to take. It doesn't matter whether you go long or short, ...what matters most is the timing of those decisions.
In Real Estate the three critical factors you need to be concerned with are location, location, LOCATION!
When working the markets, just like Network Marketing, the critical factors are timing, timing, TIMING!
My best advice is to not purchase an investment asset hoping to profit from it in the future.
Ensure your profit margin is there when you acquire the asset to begin with.
In other words, don't invest $50K in an asset worth $50K and hope it appreciates.
Instead invest $30K in an easily liquidateable asset worth $50K.
Your profit is in place from day 1 and will give you a buffer zone to protect your money and get out fast if the asset starts depreciating.
In times of inflation, you exchange cash for things.
In times of deflation, you exchange things for cash.
There are Enrons all around us, ...and they'll soon start popping up like flies.
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everyone keep in mind that floor traders at the NYSE make LARGE amounts of money with holiday bonuses. historically, 83% of the time traders move the market HIGHER during the "christmas rally". until proven otherwise, you should expect this to happen.
a damaged market can still trade higher, but the long term trend is DOWN.
good luck and if you guys have any questions, i'm here to help. :)
Neurotoxin,
I have been looking at my allocations and I am lost to what I would transfer to be safe when the shit hits the fan.
Are you familiar with these?
I tried to read further on these funds and man I AM LOST. The info I found may as well be in Chinese.....lol. Investing is a realm I cannot grasp.
JPMorgan Stable Asset Income Fund-Inst 0%
PIMCO Total Return - Admin 0%
PIMCO Real Return-Admin 0%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Conservative 0%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Moderate 50%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Aggressive 20%
Barclays Global Inv S&P 500 Equity Index-I 0%
T Rowe Price Equity Income-Adv 0%
American Funds Growth Fund of America-R4 0%
Janus Mid Cap Value-Inv 0%
Turner Midcap Growth-I 0%
Managers Special Equity-Manager 10%
Target Small Cap Value Portfolio 0%
Harbor International-Administrative 0%
American Funds EuroPacific Growth-R4 0%
Transferable- work's, Inc. Common Stock 20%
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Neurotoxin,
I have been looking at my allocations and I am lost to what I would transfer to be safe when the shit hits the fan.
Are you familiar with these?
I tried to read further on these funds and man I AM LOST. The info I found may as well be in Chinese.....lol. Investing is a realm I cannot grasp.
JPMorgan Stable Asset Income Fund-Inst 0%
PIMCO Total Return - Admin 0%
PIMCO Real Return-Admin 0%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Conservative 0%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Moderate 50%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Aggressive 20%
Barclays Global Inv S&P 500 Equity Index-I 0%
T Rowe Price Equity Income-Adv 0%
American Funds Growth Fund of America-R4 0%
Janus Mid Cap Value-Inv 0%
Turner Midcap Growth-I 0%
Managers Special Equity-Manager 10%
Target Small Cap Value Portfolio 0%
Harbor International-Administrative 0%
American Funds EuroPacific Growth-R4 0%
Transferable- work's, Inc. Common Stock 20%
You're investments should be Chinese too. ;)
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The stock market will come crashing down, ...and fortunes will be made in the process! ;D
Cash is King, ...but these days... what is cash? Paper money? Surely you're not refering to USD demoninated Federal Reserve notes? {rotflmao} they've got the buoyancy of lead balloons.
Better to refer to cash as easily liquidatable assets. Euros, Gold, Wheat, or some other such easily liquidatable assets for which demand will never wane. Get out of stocks and into commodities, ...unless you're a good stock picker (which most ordinary investors aren't) and know which position to take. It doesn't matter whether you go long or short, ...what matters most is the timing of those decisions.
In Real Estate the three critical factors you need to be concerned with are location, location, LOCATION!
When working the markets, just like Network Marketing, the critical factors are timing, timing, TIMING!
My best advice is to not purchase an investment asset hoping to profit from it in the future.
Ensure your profit margin is there when you acquire the asset to begin with.
In other words, don't invest $50K in an asset worth $50K and hope it appreciates.
Instead invest $30K in an easily liquidateable asset worth $50K.
Your profit is in place from day 1 and will give you a buffer zone to protect your money and get out fast if the asset starts depreciating.
In times of inflation, you exchange cash for things.
In times of deflation, you exchange things for cash.
There are Enrons all around us, ...and they'll soon start popping up like flies.
your points are valid and well taken, but the average investor understands little about markets and alternatives to the dollar. most importantly, they need to stay OUT OF HARMS WAY. getting too complicated with average 401k investors is often counterproductive and leads to indecision and doing nothing.
message to GBers: when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad.
this ultimately will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
imo, the above mentioned will hit the stock market HARD in the coming months and the little guy stuck in a 401k will get slaughtered on the way down.(as usual) conversely, professionals on wall street make money if markets go up.......or down.
i've been in this industry for many years and have NEVER seen a situation quite like the one developing.............i just hope people listen.
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Neurotoxin,
I have been looking at my allocations and I am lost to what I would transfer to be safe when the shit hits the fan.
Are you familiar with these?
I tried to read further on these funds and man I AM LOST. The info I found may as well be in Chinese.....lol. Investing is a realm I cannot grasp.
JPMorgan Stable Asset Income Fund-Inst 0%
PIMCO Total Return - Admin 0%
PIMCO Real Return-Admin 0%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Conservative 0%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Moderate 50%
Work's Pre-Mixed Portfolio-Aggressive 20%
Barclays Global Inv S&P 500 Equity Index-I 0%
T Rowe Price Equity Income-Adv 0%
American Funds Growth Fund of America-R4 0%
Janus Mid Cap Value-Inv 0%
Turner Midcap Growth-I 0%
Managers Special Equity-Manager 10%
Target Small Cap Value Portfolio 0%
Harbor International-Administrative 0%
American Funds EuroPacific Growth-R4 0%
Transferable- work's, Inc. Common Stock 20%
yes i'm familiar with your type of "chinese" diversified portfolio LOL... IMO, your best bet is "flight to safety" meaning, using fixed investments such as Cd's, gov. bonds etc. until the storm passes. then have your broker move your monies back into your previous asset allocation.
i'm anticipating the usual holiday "bonus" rally......after that i would recommend moving to safety. remember, you can always get back in to your current portfolio at any time. all it takes is a phone call to your broker.....no big deal.
i hope this makes sense.
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w88, i will do my best to accommodate your request. :)
cool. Yeah my portfolio is confusing (for me) because there are a ton of options and when you choose an option there are hundreds of other sub investments shooting everywhere. I get lost REAL quick. I am not sure I can move my money to the Cd's, gov. bonds unless it is one on that list of options I have. I will check. ;)
Well if you ever need IT related issue advice you can ask. Don't know much else except talking shit on getbig...lol.
Thanks :)
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cool. Yeah my portfolio is confusing (for me) because there are a ton of options and when you choose an option there are hundreds of other sub investments shooting everywhere. I get lost REAL quick. I am not sure I can move my money to the Cd's, gov. bonds unless it is one on that list of options I have. I will check. ;)
Well if you ever need IT related issue advice you can ask. Don't know much else except talking shit on getbig...lol.
Thanks :)
you can ALWAYS move your jpm portfolio into "fixed income" at anytime. broker's prefer you stay in stocks for self serving reasons. don't let a broker tell you otherwise.
with regard to the market, i would stay put for the time being. remember, 83% of the time we rally the market during the holiday. i assume this season will be no different. when the time approaches, i'll try to give you my best "heads up" so you can avoid losing your capital in a potential market meltdown.
w88, always keep in mind that brokers are nothing more than ultra smart sales people who know little to nothing regarding markets. their main purpose is collecting other peoples assets......if the market crashes, they NEVER move your money to safety. their instructed to contact you and say "don't worry we need to look long term". i shit you not ! try telling that to the average investor who was directed by their brokers to enter tech stocks during "the tech boom". if investors only knew half the story.......
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you can ALWAYS move your jpm portfolio into "fixed income" at anytime. broker's prefer you stay in stocks for self serving reasons. don't let a broker tell you otherwise.
with regard to the market, i would stay put for the time being. remember, 83% of the time we rally the market during the holiday. i assume this season will be no different. when the time approaches, i'll try to give you my best "heads up" so you can avoid losing your capital in a potential market meltdown.
w88, always keep in mind that brokers are nothing more than ultra smart sales people who know little to nothing regarding markets. their main purpose is collecting other peoples assets......if the market crashes, they NEVER move your money to safety. their instructed to contact you and say "don't worry we need to look long term". i shit you not ! try telling that to the average investor who was directed by their brokers to enter tech stocks during "the tech boom". if investors only knew half the story.......
He should grab a DVD copy of 'Boiler Room' with Giovanni Ribisi & Vin Deisel.
Then read Robert Kiyosaki's book about the coming crash. Kiyosaki has been screaming about it for years to anyone who would listen.
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He should grab a DVD copy of 'Boiler Room' with Giovanni Ribisi & Vin Deisel.
Then read Robert Kiyosaki's book about the coming crash. Kiyosaki has been screaming about it for years to anyone who would listen.
"dumb money" has no idea how bad this market is. they tend to learn the hard way.
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15% is a shit return pigpen. also, try holding down a job.
Sound like someone is very bitter and jealous of Alex23...
Is he what you wish you were or did he just fucked your wife?
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another genius. ::)
hahaha.. melting down like an icecube when realizing nobody cares about your 401k "advices" dellusion then resulting to grammar to keep afloat. Quite sad.
btw ~15% is considered pretty decent in the current market. Shows how off you really are.
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hahaha.. melting down like an icecube when realizing nobody cares about your 401k "advices" dellusion then resulting to grammar to keep afloat. Quite sad.
btw ~15% is considered pretty decent in the current market. Shows how off you really are.
krusader.......i'll remind you often about the stock market collapsing......along with your savings. you have no idea when to get out, or where the bottom is. i think that's pretty funny.......like a blind man in a storm.
enjoy losing your money......bigshot.
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i'm attempting to inform getbiggers....just hope someone listens. :-\
Believe me, I know EXACTLY how you feel. ;D
The bottom line is there are those who will listen to the message, and there are those who will want to ridicule what you say, despite having less knowledge in the area than you, ...and there will be those who will foolishly listen to the bashers. There's nothing you can do about that.
It's just like Network Marketing. You can share the message, but many people simply just won't get it.
Follow the SW4 rule. Some Will, Some Won't, So What? (http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/em/shrug.gif) ...Someone's Waiting to hear what you have to say.
it's childish posts from alex23 that make me say.......fvck it, why waste my time trying to give a heads up to the gbers ?
Again... SW4. Not all Getbigger's share Alex23's attitudes or opinions about your advice.
And those who do, are not the ones for whom you post is it? Keep doing what you do,
...and those with an ear to hear what you say, or eyes to see the picture you paint will. SW4 :)
Some Will, Some Won't, So What? (http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/em/shrug.gif) ...Someone's Waiting to hear what you have to say.
ps- When the poop does hit the fan, ...just try not to gloat or say 'I told ya so'. I'll be working on that too ;D
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Believe me, I know EXACTLY how you feel. ;D
The bottom line is there are those who will listen to the message, and there are those who will want to ridicule what you say, despite having less knowledge in the area than you, ...and there will be those who will foolishly listen to the bashers. There's nothing you can do about that.
It's just like Network Marketing. You can share the message, but many people simply just won't get it.
Follow the SW4 rule. Some Will, Some Won't, So What? (http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/em/shrug.gif) ...Someone's Waiting to hear what you have to say.
Again... SW4. Not all Getbigger's share Alex23's attitudes or opinions about your advice.
And those who do, are not the ones for whom you post is it? Keep doing what you do,
...and those with an ear to hear what you say, or eyes to see the picture you paint will. SW4 :)
Some Will, Some Won't, So What? (http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/em/shrug.gif) ...Someone's Waiting to hear what you have to say.
ps- When the poop does hit the fan, ...just try not to gloat or say 'I told ya so'. I'll be working on that too ;D
jag, your post is well taken. i'll concentrate on the guys interested in market info and ignore the haters.
i may only communicate via PM's, as to NOT to tip off any haters with information that might help them avoid monetary losses.
that may sound harsh........but since they apparently "know it all", no need to put market specifics out in the open. general market chat is cool, but PM's will be utilized for any members who may want some unbiased assistance.
as you stated jag, timing is EVERYTHING and the vast majority are clueless and frozen in their boots when the market melts down. personally, i'm looking forward to it......as you may know, you make your money when you buy. i get excited thinking about a total market collapse !
anyway, thanks for your post. :D
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Am I the only person who doesn't rely on getbig.com for investment advice? :)
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jag, your post is well taken. i'll concentrate on the guys interested in market info and ignore the haters.
i may only communicate via PM's, as to NOT to tip off any haters with information that might help them avoid monetary losses.
that may sound harsh........but since they apparently "know it all", no need to put market specifics out in the open. general market chat is cool, but PM's will be utilized for any members who may want some unbiased assistance.
as you stated jag, timing is EVERYTHING and the vast majority are clueless and frozen in their boots when the market melts down. personally, i'm looking forward to it......as you may know, you make your money when you buy. i get excited thinking about a total market collapse !
anyway, thanks for your post. :D
I know how you feel. I've got that nervous anticipation as well.
While I feel bad for many... I too am looking forward to it. :-[
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All part of the bigger dollar crisis I'm afraid....
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Neurotoxin, you have to understand that, unfortunately, this world is full of people who want to tell you what to do with your money. Due to this, and the history as-of-lately of the stock market and all that relates to it, I find it a tad irrational that you will not accept critizism.
I happen to agree with you on many points, like Bush fucking up our economy, lack of confidence in ANY market, inflation rearing its ugly head, etc. But you also have to understand that it's not all these factors put together that could make for a nasty crash. It's actually what has happened for the past 15-20 years, market-wise, that will make this particular crash one to remember.
For starters, the crash in the 80s hit a lot of people really hard. Still, unemployment was low, inflation controlled, oil cheap and lots of money to throw around, so people did not give a shit about losing 30-40% of their portfolio's value, or that it took them 5-10 years to gain it all back.
10 years go by, oil still dirt cheap, and all of a sudden you start hearing all these rumours about the "net" and how it's going to be the next big thing. Your cousin, your mother in law and everyone in the neighborhood keeps buzzing about it and all of a sudden this rumour takes on a life of its own. Before you know it gazillions are being poured into this industry, everything is interconnected from here to Tajikistan, paid for thanks to the American small investors, and it now becomes more than a rumour.
To make a long story short, everyone told you to buy and the majority of people listened. When the hype couldn't be sustained the market crashed. In hindsight, all those who lost money should've seen red flags everywhere. I mean, a small two-person company IN NO FUCKING way can have a market capitalization of 450 million dollars because there is no way 2 people cannot produce 450 million worth of stuff. And there were THOUSANDS of these type of companies everywhere at the time. Companies spinning off their frigging bathrooms, sister-in-law to get their hands on cash for ideas that are esentially the equivalent of a pyramid scheme... people falling for it and the government doing nothing about it.
Once we had recouped from the internet crash, which took a LOT of people's retirement money (someone's gotta pay for all that infrastructure beind laid out, and 99% of the time the companies will not pay for it, it's you and I) we then found out that the house we had been living in for 20 years is now a goldmine. The real estate market started getting out of control and all of a sudden a house in Queens, New York, is selling for $600,000, when LOGIC tells us that there ain't no way a "shoebox" in Queens is worth that amount of money.
That should be a red flag the size of Mt Vesuvius. Needless to say the fact that your house was appraised at 65% of market value should've made you stop right there and then and told the real estate broker to go fuck himself. He knows the house is not worth $600,000, yet he is coniving you into buying it under the false pretense that housing prices will go up from now to eternity and you will never find the same house for the same price again in your life, when they know they're lying. And people fucking fall for it!!!
On top of that you have all these huge financial conglomerates structuring debt backed by all these mortgage pool which THEY FUCKING KNOW are way overblown and built around nothing more than wild capitalistic speculation, hence no REAL value, feeding the frenzy. Merrill, UBS, Credit Suisse, etc., all of them got caught with their pants down and lost huge amounts of money because, even though they have internal mechanisms to prevent it (or so they say, because Merrill Lynch's CEO made out like a banshee, taking home more than a quarter of a BILLION dollars and a pension of 1.5 million per year for the rest of his life for creating ZERO value), they did diddly shit to stop it. Let me tell you, ANY fucking compliance department in any company IS ROYALLY FULL OF SHIT! Otherwise the real estate crash wouldn't have hit their respective companies so hard.
I work in the financial services industries and have some, although limited, knowledge of what to do with my money. So far, from all I've read, conventional wisdom will lose you dinero. I see warning signs in all the diversification hype. It will bite everyone in the ass eventually. If you look at the largest fortunes (Warren Buffett, George Soros, etc.) and how they were made, there is one single common factor amongst them: They buy when everyone sells, and they sell when everyone buys. Which is exactly the opposite of what 99% of the street is telling you.
You'll see, once the market crashes, these people, the Berkshite-Hathaways, Goldman Sachs, et all, will buy all the shit you currently own at 25% of its true value, say at $2 and resell it to you 20 years later at 150 times that price. They get away with it not because they're too smart, but because we are too stupid to know.
After all of this, all you're basically left with is "who do I believe?". I DO BELIEVE, this time around, investor confidence will be eroded to the point that the market will have a hard time, as you say, rallying back to 1985 levels. A lot of money will be taken out of circulation and put into physicals, like commodities, for good. The stock market will be hit hard.
C-ya.
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A lot of money will be taken out of circulation and put into physicals, like commodities, for good. The stock market will be hit hard.
C-ya.
Right now China is betting on commodities.
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Neurotoxin, you have to understand that, unfortunately, this world is full of people who want to tell you what to do with your money. Due to this, and the history as-of-lately of the stock market and all that relates to it, I find it a tad irrational that you will not accept critizism.
I happen to agree with you on many points, like Bush fucking up our economy, lack of confidence in ANY market, inflation rearing its ugly head, etc. But you also have to understand that it's not all these factors put together that could make for a nasty crash. It's actually what has happened for the past 15-20 years, market-wise, that will make this particular crash one to remember.
For starters, the crash in the 80s hit a lot of people really hard. Still, unemployment was low, inflation controlled, oil cheap and lots of money to throw around, so people did not give a shit about losing 30-40% of their portfolio's value, or that it took them 5-10 years to gain it all back.
10 years go by, oil still dirt cheap, and all of a sudden you start hearing all these rumours about the "net" and how it's going to be the next big thing. Your cousin, your mother in law and everyone in the neighborhood keeps buzzing about it and all of a sudden this rumour takes on a life of its own. Before you know it gazillions are being poured into this industry, everything is interconnected from here to Tajikistan, paid for thanks to the American small investors, and it now becomes more than a rumour.
To make a long story short, everyone told you to buy and the majority of people listened. When the hype couldn't be sustained the market crashed. In hindsight, all those who lost money should've seen red flags everywhere. I mean, a small two-person company IN NO FUCKING way can have a market capitalization of 450 million dollars because there is no way 2 people cannot produce 450 million worth of stuff. And there were THOUSANDS of these type of companies everywhere at the time. Companies spinning off their frigging bathrooms, sister-in-law to get their hands on cash for ideas that are esentially the equivalent of a pyramid scheme... people falling for it and the government doing nothing about it.
Once we had recouped from the internet crash, which took a LOT of people's retirement money (someone's gotta pay for all that infrastructure beind laid out, and 99% of the time the companies will not pay for it, it's you and I) we then found out that the house we had been living in for 20 years is now a goldmine. The real estate market started getting out of control and all of a sudden a house in Queens, New York, is selling for $600,000, when LOGIC tells us that there ain't no way a "shoebox" in Queens is worth that amount of money.
That should be a red flag the size of Mt Vesuvius. Needless to say the fact that your house was appraised at 65% of market value should've made you stop right there and then and told the real estate broker to go fuck himself. He knows the house is not worth $600,000, yet he is coniving you into buying it under the false pretense that housing prices will go up from now to eternity and you will never find the same house for the same price again in your life, when they know they're lying. And people fucking fall for it!!!
On top of that you have all these huge financial conglomerates structuring debt backed by all these mortgage pool which THEY FUCKING KNOW are way overblown and built around nothing more than wild capitalistic speculation, hence no REAL value, feeding the frenzy. Merrill, UBS, Credit Suisse, etc., all of them got caught with their pants down and lost huge amounts of money because, even though they have internal mechanisms to prevent it (or so they say, because Merrill Lynch's CEO made out like a banshee, taking home more than a quarter of a BILLION dollars and a pension of 1.5 million per year for the rest of his life for creating ZERO value), they did diddly shit to stop it. Let me tell you, ANY fucking compliance department in any company IS ROYALLY FULL OF SHIT! Otherwise the real estate crash wouldn't have hit their respective companies so hard.
I work in the financial services industries and have some, although limited, knowledge of what to do with my money. So far, from all I've read, conventional wisdom will lose you dinero. I see warning signs in all the diversification hype. It will bite everyone in the ass eventually. If you look at the largest fortunes (Warren Buffett, George Soros, etc.) and how they were made, there is one single common factor amongst them: They buy when everyone sells, and they sell when everyone buys. Which is exactly the opposite of what 99% of the street is telling you.
You'll see, once the market crashes, these people, the Berkshite-Hathaways, Goldman Sachs, et all, will buy all the shit you currently own at 25% of its true value, say at $2 and resell it to you 20 years later at 150 times that price. They get away with it not because they're too smart, but because we are too stupid to know.
After all of this, all you're basically left with is "who do I believe?". I DO BELIEVE, this time around, investor confidence will be eroded to the point that the market will have a hard time, as you say, rallying back to 1985 levels. A lot of money will be taken out of circulation and put into physicals, like commodities, for good. The stock market will be hit hard.
C-ya.
slapper, i happen to agree with the entirety of your knowledgeable post. many of your points are spot on. my aim is to inform and educate on a level most will hopefully understand.
as you know, most people are understandably clueless as to how market function. my objective is to educate and hopefully help anyone in the market to avoid losing their savings.
i look forward to you joining our discussions and offering your knowledgeable insight.
again.......thanks for the great post ! :D
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rememeber to keep the above post in mind during the holiday season.
So you still think something's gonna happen after the holiday season? Funny thing is that at my company we get an internal newspaper that talks about performance BS and the analysts still sound VERY optimistic about the future.
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Maybe..until Bush is out...then it may decline so the new administration take the blame.
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So you still think something's gonna happen after the holiday season? Funny thing is that at my company we get an internal newspaper that talks about performance BS and the analysts still sound VERY optimistic about the future.
pay no attention to analysts/rating agency's. behind the scenes they're tied to the companies they PUMP and are nothing more than cheerleaders. (just like CNBC) their job is to get people to BUY. keep in mind, analysts missed the dot com BUST and recently the housing BUST. that pretty much sums up their performance and reliability.
some think a move to the upside during the holiday season is possible, and will sell their LONG positions into any hyped seasonal rally. after that, i expect a market capitulation to occur.
looking forward, there's NOTHING positive on the horizon.
keep in mind, it's just my 2 cents.
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sounds interesting. Got a short version?
Yes, you can find a shorter version in my website: www.readingfordummies.co m.
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Im really enjoying this thread NToxin, Jag, and others. There maybe 100s looking as guests so your info is not wasted.
When my home doubled in value in 2 years......i said WTF is up with this??? I started doing research on economies and markets and can see alot hurt coming to gullible americans.. :-[
Many hard working americans have their pensions secured by 401k's and need to know of these risks coming, so it is a good thing you have done.
Of course we will have alot of self- interest representatives trying to slow the losses by saying......"Its okay, the market will recover in a couple months, so dont make rash decisions" even at the same time they will be liquidating their assests asap.
It will be a buyers market for the next 10 years or so. I dont even know if recovery is possible as bush has setus back so far......
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[...]When my home doubled in value in 2 years......i said WTF is up with this??? I started doing research on economies and markets and can see alot hurt coming to gullible americans.[...]
That's exactly what happened to a friend of mine down in Queens (New York state). They bought the house back in 1998 for $235,000 and sold it 5 years later for $705,000.
Back then it was mass hysteria. You had all these real estate representatives telling everyone that housing prices would go up and never come down. I mean, everyone believed them, even though we had gone through periods like these before and knew the final outcome.
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Funny thing is that at my company we get an internal newspaper that talks about performance BS and the analysts still sound VERY optimistic about the future.
slapper......analysts who "make predictions" work for JP Morgan, Goldman, Citi etc. Many of these companies hold HUGE numbers of shares in stocks they must unload. this is why a stock is NEVER downgraded until it's at or near it's bottom. conversely, stocks are typically upgraded at or near their all time highs to allow the big brokerage houses to UNLOAD their shares as dumb money jumps in at the TOP.
hope this makes sense.
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ok guys, i want you to keep in mind that the Dow ran from 10,000 to 14,200 from the productivity created from the housing boom.... which is now a housing bust. so how has the market managed to not drop back down to 10,000 level yet ? the secret is in the little talked about PPT (plunge protection team) the PPT is headed by former CEO of Goldman Sach's... Henry Paulson (current treasury secretary) the PPT "juices" the market by buying the overall stock market. on a recent 400 point daily Dow drop, the PPT infused the market with approx. 40 BILLION dollars to stop the downward spiral. as the PPT comes in.....it forces NYSE traders who are betting the market will go lower (shorting) to "cover" and buy their positions back, causing the market to move back higher. this process just allows the "market bleeding" to slow down.......but cannot stop the inevitable.
currently without the PPT working fulltime......the market would have crashed months ago.
Google : "Plunge Protection Team" to learn more.
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LOL. Good stuff. Ill keep looking at this thread. Fasten your seatbelts, its gonna be a hella ride!!! 8)
I always suspected there had to be a group to keep the money trading in the DOW. Of course the dow doesnt really represent how the average american is feeling...........its just rich boys playing with rich boys.
I know nothing mentioned here is an absolute, but it makes sense....
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LOL. Good stuff. Ill keep looking at this thread. Fasten your seatbelts, its gonna be a hella ride!!! 8)
I always suspected there had to be a group to keep the money trading in the DOW. Of course the dow doesnt really represent how the average american is feeling...........its just rich boys playing with rich boys.
I know nothing mentioned here is an absolute, but it makes sense....
the purpose of this thread is to educate gbers as to the workings of Wall Street and how to AVOID losing money.
i will tell you what Wall Street DOESN'T want the average investor to know, or understand.
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it appears by the number of visits to this thread (500+) there's "some" interest on this subject.
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keep doing it toxin...don't stop because some meathead may rip the thread...
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Yeah it is good to read. Keep on posting.
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FRE was up 18.84% today!
FNM was up 18.62%!
If you bought either or both this morning you are one happy camper. ;D
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
If there is a crash, cash may not necessarily be king as inflation could well reak havock on purchasing power. There was an excellent documentary on google about the federal reserve which advocated investing in silver dollars in case of economic meltdown; in case you want to watch it:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7757684583209015812
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Do you have individual stocks Neurotoxin? I was curious about what your thoughts are on the WiFi networks that will be built...but by who knows at this point.
Clearwire was in the running but has dipped.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CLWR
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everyone keep in mind that floor traders at the NYSE make LARGE amounts of money with holiday bonuses. historically, 83% of the time traders move the market HIGHER during the "christmas rally". until proven otherwise, you should expect this to happen.
ok guys here's the deal. as usual, it looks like the Christmas rally is beginning to get some legs despite consistently bad economic news. that's not unusual this time of year. (remember it's BONUS season) additionally, the Fed. is looking to bailout the financial institutions who created the largest housing bust since the Great Depression. the Fed is also looking to freeze interest rates on ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) to prevent a home foreclosure meltdown. since the financial sector ALWAYS leads the market..... this should create a level of euphoria to sustain a holiday rally. in addition, many on the street believe another interest CUT will occur at the Dec 11th Fed meeting.....which would add fuel to a rally.
after the holiday, there's NOTHING "looking forward" to propel the market past the 14k level and higher, so ALL bets are off the table. infact, many of us expect a recession to rear it's ugly head in "08" w/ a corresponding market breakdown.
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Clearwire was in the running but has dipped.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CLWR
CLWR peaked in July at 36.00, it's currently @ 15.57.
this relatively new stock has lost more than half it's value in 5 months. NOT a good sign.
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FRE was up 18.84% today!
FNM was up 18.62%!
If you bought either or both this morning you are one happy camper. ;D
gbm, what your seeing in FRE and FNM is the "shorts" covering their positions due to the Fed. discussing a financial bailout......this causes an extreme upswing. remember, this is not new money coming into FRE FNM.......it's short players buying their positions back. the further a stock has dropped, the more violent the upswing when the shorts cover. i'm glad you timed the move correctly. I hope this makes sense.
both stocks were priced @ 70.00 a yr ago and had recently dropped below 30.00.
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CLWR peaked in July at 36.00, it's currently @ 15.57.
this relatively new stock has lost more than half it's value in 5 months. NOT a good sign.
I know but reality is that this WILL happen. I just don't know when to jump in. Any one of these WiFi company's could be bought out or have contracts with Microsoft, Google, ATT, Sprint. I need insider info. What the fuck are we paying you for. :D
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I know but reality is that this WILL happen. I just don't know when to jump in. Any one of these WiFi company's could be bought out or have contracts with Microsoft, Google, ATT, Sprint. I need insider info. What the fuck are we paying you for. :D
#1) WiFi has MANY obstacles to overcome.
#2) look at WFWL it's a WiFi co. that traded @ 44.00 in 2005.....it now trades at 35 cents and ALL institutional investors are OUT.
#3) when WiFi finally overcomes its many problems......look to the Co's you mentioned including Cisco to lead the way.
#4) finally, until all the kinks are worked out in WiFi.....personally, i'd steer clear. ;)
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ok guys here's the deal. as usual, it looks like the Christmas rally is beginning to get some legs despite consistently bad economic news. that's not unusual this time of year. (remember it's BONUS season) additionally, the Fed. is looking to bailout the financial institutions who created the largest housing bust since the Great Depression. the Fed is also looking to freeze interest rates on ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) to prevent a home foreclosure meltdown. since the financial sector ALWAYS leads the market..... this should create a level of euphoria to sustain a holiday rally. in addition, many on the street believe another interest CUT will occur at the Dec 11th Fed meeting.....which would add fuel to a rally.
after the holiday, there's NOTHING "looking forward" to propel the market past the 14k level and higher, so ALL bets are off the table. infact, many of us expect a recession to rear it's ugly head in "08" w/ a corresponding market breakdown.
of course.....this is all IMHO. ;)
guys, although i'm hoping for a holiday rally, keep in mind the current market undertone is still very negative. my LONG TERM outlook..... is still DOWN.
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He should grab a DVD copy of 'Boiler Room' with Giovanni Ribisi & Vin Deisel.
Then read Robert Kiyosaki's book about the coming crash. Kiyosaki has been screaming about it for years to anyone who would listen.
Yes "Born to Steal", awesome book inside the chop shops.
Neuro tight thread bro
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#1) WiFi has MANY obstacles to overcome.
#2) look at WFWL it's a WiFi co. that traded @ 44.00 in 2005.....it now trades at 35 cents and ALL institutional investors are OUT.
#3) when WiFi finally overcomes its many problems......look to the Co's you mentioned including Cisco to lead the way.
#4) finally, until all the kinks are worked out in WiFi.....personally, i'd steer clear. ;)
I bought Cisco when it went to 30 a share about 6 years ago. Thought no way it will plummet further. Got down to 12 I think. My timing sucks. when it went to 22 I sold. That took 2 years I think. I was frustrated. Technology is so essential to everyday life I don't see how Cisco, Lucent (which was another bust for me), and similar stocks can ever kill you. But they do.
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I have a question.
Although past performance is a flimsy indicator for future performance (stocks), what's your take on using statistic measures like z-scores, estimation, probability, etc.?
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I bought Cisco when it went to 30 a share about 6 years ago. Thought no way it will plummet further. Got down to 12 I think. My timing sucks. when it went to 22 I sold. That took 2 years I think. I was frustrated. Technology is so essential to everyday life I don't see how Cisco, Lucent (which was another bust for me), and similar stocks can ever kill you. But they do.
windsor, the problem most stock investors experience is overlooking the OVERALL direction of the market prior to buying. your cisco buy at 30.00 was in a downtrending bear market. no matter how great your stock is, if the overall market direction is headed lower....so is your stock(s) . your timing could not have been worse.
the reason i started this thread was to help guys like yourself better understand WHEN to get in the market and WHEN to exit safely. the coming recession (IMHO) will result in a 25-30% drop in stock prices. (historically, all prior recessions combined averaged a 28% decline in stock prices.) with that in mind, even the best stock(s) in the "history of mankind" cannot fight the OVERALL market direction. conversely, bad/shit stocks will do well in strong BULL markets......as evidenced by the Dot-Com boom. cisco (considered a strong Co.) traded in the 84.00 range in 2000, only to fall to 9.00 following the Dot-Com bust.
all my statistical data leads to a recession beginning in 08......with a LARGE market correction to follow. i could be wrong. if so, my typed words will come back to haunt me.......... but i doubt it.
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all my statistical data leads to a recession beginning in 08......with a LARGE market correction to follow. i could be wrong. if so, my typed words will come back to haunt me.......... but i doubt it.
Interesting,
"Statistics don't lie" Teddy Roosevelt
"The stock market is the only place where we come to a game state, it's real and when two people predict oposite forecast...someone is going to be wrong" To Leresa
I think to not agree with you in that soon (not in the future) this parabolic bubble is going to bust would be a bad "bet"
But would you say the old saying "it always bounces back" holds up in this instance? So many cards going against us in this one, not to mention the vast number of countries attacking our dollar on a daily basis.
i use them as much as i use psychic's. ;) those terms bring me back to my college statistic's courses ! :-X
So your telling me there is a chance ;D
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But would you say the old saying "it always bounces back" holds up in this instance? So many cards going against us in this one, not to mention the vast number of countries attacking our dollar on a daily basis.
well.... considering the nasdaq in the yr 2000 was just over 5,000 what type of "it always bounces back" would that be ? 8 yrs later and still nearly 50% below the 2000 levels. where's the bounce ?
the dow was near the 12k level in 2000 and fell to the 7,100 level. it has taken the dow 8 years to gain 1,000 overall points... to date. hardly mindbogglingly returns for any investor. with inflation added as well as the declining dollar........a 1000 point dow return over 8yrs is LOSING money.
most recessions last an average of 14-16 months with contracting stock markets. i usually watch dumb money take the ride DOWN.
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I have a question.
Although past performance is a flimsy indicator for future performance (stocks), what's your take on using statistic measures like z-scores, estimation, probability, etc.?
:( You're kidding right? ::)
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The major problem for USA is that the real estate market will continue to be colder than ice.
Here is the thing:
Currently a house will take 12 months to be sold. And that is if NO more new houses are built.
4 years ago, it was 2-3 months.
So different sectors experiences difficulties.
The big problem is that the taxes were lowered a few years ago, allowing the economy to overheat.
Lowering taxes with a huge national debt.
Instead of curbing the economic boom back then with taxes, and lowering the taxes now, when the economy is slowing down.
In essence: The Bush Administration has created a situation where there is no room for economic politics, to boost a slowing market.
Fiscally unresponsible.
allow me to translate:
Bush is an Idiot.
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:( You're kidding right? ::)
No I was not kidding, I got about a dozen emails on it, some book on Amazon.
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well.... considering the nasdaq in the yr 2000 was just over 5,000 what type of "it always bounces back" would that be ? 8 yrs later and still nearly 50% below the 2000 levels. where's the bounce ?
Ok thanks.
So as times goes on we see less return? Like for example the DJIA divisor decreasing and decreasing.
One more for tonite, what do you think about Dan Zanger's chart pattern?
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So as times goes on we see less return? Like for example the DJIA divisor decreasing and decreasing.
One more for tonite, what do you think about Dan Zanger's chart pattern?
my point is... if you take ALL the rides DOWN in the market, it's difficult to make any money. when the dow dropped from 12k to 7k in 2000, if you took the ride down, it's impossible to make money. if you took the nasdaq ride DOWN from 5,000 in 2000, your still 50% away from break even 8 yrs later. it makes NO sense. smart money gets OUT and re-enters at or near the bottom, then rides it back up. average investors are taught to buy and hold and cost average down. do you believe ANY firm on WS uses that logic? but, it's what the masses are taught and consistently do. the market is a great place to make money....if you understand how it works.
my advice on GB is to help the average investor AVOID the big downturns. i'm not interested in getting too technical etc. just trying to keep it simple.....and save people their hard earned money. if not, WS will take it from you. ;)
dan zanger has very good information.
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my point is... if you take ALL the rides DOWN in the market, it's difficult to make any money. when the dow dropped from 12k to 7k in 2000, if you took the ride down, it's impossible to make money. if you took the nasdaq ride DOWN from 5,000 in 2000, your still 50% away from break even 8 yrs later. it makes NO sense. smart money gets OUT and re-enters at or near the bottom, then rides it back up. average investors are taught to buy and hold and cost average down. do you believe ANY firm on WS uses that logic? but, it's what the masses are taught and consistently do. the market is a great place to make money....if you understand how it works.
just so everybody understands......when i talk about exiting the market for safety, i only believe this makes sense for the average investor when a BIG DOWNTURN may occur. this thread is NOT about trading etc. this thread was started because my experience leads me to believe that a recession is on the horizon. with a recession comes a corresponding LARGE stock market correction. both recessionary and bubble (real estate) corrections many times take yrs to recover loses. (think dot-com bubble)
it makes no sense for the average guy to jump in and out of the market for the "normal ups and downs". if investors would AVOID the big corrections, their returns would increase significantly.
i hope this makes sense.
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corp.earnings are the fuel that drive the stock market higher. because of the recession, (led by the housing collapse) earning have been much worse than expected. the Fed will try and push the market higher w/ another rate cut on dec 11. (killing the dollar further and increasing inflation) it will probably help for a brief period, then further down we go.
remember.....this is my OPINION.
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also, it takes a full 8 months after any rate cut for it to have an effect on consumers and the economy. think about it....the first 1/4 point cut months ago hasn't kicked in yet.....so why would another dec. 11th ? it won't.......
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hey did you hear Bush today? "We will see the economy slow down...uh..uh...might see a slow down, in the near future"
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nov. is the best month of the yr for the stock market with historical gains of 1.7%............. -5% this past nov.
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nov. is the best month of the yr for the stock market with historical gains of 1.7%............. -5% this past nov.
Better than "the January Effect"?
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Better than "the January Effect"?
Jan effect is best...I haven't owned any stocks since i was a trader many years ago..late 2000
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since 1950, nov. has help a slightly better return in the dow......than jan. i myself thought otherwise.
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great thread. Im checking in every few days.
recession may be a depression..........what do you think??
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great thread. Im checking in every few days.
recession may be a depression..........what do you think??
i'm thinking a deep recession lasting into 09. although, the housing and banking crisis is the worst since the 1929 depression.
i believe we're currently in the beginning stages of a recession, which IMO will kick in to the market AFTER the holiday. (floor traders and brokers need their bonus'.)
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the Christmas rally has begun.... as expected.
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We need more Keynesianism efforts.........mang :-\
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allow me to translate:
Bush is an Idiot.
that's a given
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market update......the "shorts" have been covering like crazy, keeping the Christmas rally strong. :D
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market update......the "shorts" have been covering like crazy, keeping the Christmas rally strong. :D
This is better than sex!
Keep it up!
More!
More!
Yeah!
Don't sotp until I tell you to!
Fuck, yeah!
Now, let's hit the shower!
:D
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i expect some profit taking today (fri) after the huge runup the past few days. thing's are going along as expected. i will continue to do updates to let everyone know when i'm changing direction in this crazy market environment. for now....the Christmas rally is doing well. :D
NT
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not much will happen in the market on Monday. everyone's waiting until the Fed announces (tommorrow) it's decision on rate cuts.
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
the new recession comes due to subprime-based mortgage securities that were AAA-rated and sold to fund managers in EU and US without them giving due dilligence to the underlying asset they placed their client's funds into
easy borrowing environment will eventually lead to some sort of economic downtrun - it's been predicted by economists decades ago - nothing new...
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be careful and don't get sucked into the "interest rate rallies".......with earnings decelerating looking forward, there's nothing to move the market past 14k and beyond. traders will push the market up to the 14k area again, where i believe it will FAIL. besides, if rates are lowered again (for WS) the dollar will continue to plunge.......which is NOT GOOD.
that's my opinion and i'm sticking to it.
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What's your rate cut prediction? is .50 a given?
general consensus .25bp cut
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What's your rate cut prediction? is .50 a given?
if the fed panders to WS you will see .50bp cut. ;)
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keep in mind this is "bonus" season. ANYTHING short of the sun exploding will keep WS from selling this market off.
as stated before....all bets are off AFTER the holiday.
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whenever the market is PURELY dependent on the Fed cutting rates to move HIGHER.......trouble lurks, so be careful. ;)
IMHO.
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Ouch! My biggest one day loss this year. :'(
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guys...please be careful. things are much worse than CNBC and Jim Cramer are willing to admit. if not for seasonality, this market would be totally screwed.
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careful with what? it's not that you can do much to effect economic recession...reshuffle portfolio, buy few "safe heaven" assets - but in a recessionary environment, especially consumer driven as this one is going to be, everyone's screwed one way or the other - gotta just sit it out
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after yesterday's 300 point loss in the Dow.....expect the Plunge Protection Team to try and juice the market today.
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market trivia: although MOST stock brokers/planners say it's "impossible to time the market." if the average stock investor put his money into the market every Oct and cashed out by May 1st every year, he would INCREASE his profits by nearly 40%.....by just avoiding exposure to the market in the summer months.
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market info: import prices have risen 11.4% on 2007, the highest in 25 yr history of the index.
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careful of what you ask ? if the market drops 20+ percent during this upcoming recession (recessions average 35-40% market corrections) why the fvck would you do NOTHING before the shit hits the fan ? your clearly dumb money.
if sitting in a mutual fund as it drops 20- 40 percent is fun to YOU.....enjoy yourself.
ok, i agree...so where u gonna shift money to? metals? bonds? if you have long position in the fund and it drops 4000 points today, then what exactly have you lost in a 3-5 year perspective? at the end of the day its the cash available to us on a daily basis that matters..
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if you have long position in the fund and it drops 4000 points today, then what exactly have you lost in a 3-5 year perspective?
go ask someone who bought nasdaq stocks at the peak (5,000 in 2000) 8 yrs later, still down 50%.
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Hey Neuro,did you watch Cramer last night? He was worried, and people were actually still calling in asking about stocks.
He switched the show around and focused on international investments...China.
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kudlow kicked him off of "kudlow & cramer" because of HUGE losses to kudlow's account..........alleged ly. ;)
haha interesting. :)
I wanted to see what he was going to say about the malay yesterday, and keep with the CNBC attitude
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go ask someone who bought nasdaq stocks at the peak (5,000 in 2000) 8 yrs later, still down 50%.
and why in hell would want to buy at the peak?????
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and why in hell would want to buy at the peak?????
'Cause some people are stupid and don't know things are going to start crashing
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and why in hell would want to buy at the peak?????
at that time, they thought it would never go down. contrarian wave runners wiped out fully
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and why in hell would want to buy at the peak?????
is that a serious question ? most small investors get sucked in at the top of markets by the hype on CNBC and the Cramers of the world.
recently when the Dow hit 14,000, CNBC's crew had party hats on ! how many small investors bought into that euphoria ? answer: more than you'll ever know.
small investors are like cattle.....they got caught in 2000, and will AGAIN in 2008.
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is that a serious question ? most small investors get sucked in at the top of markets by the hype on CNBC and the Cramers of the world.
recently when the Dow hit 14,000, CNBC's crew had party hats on ! how many small investors bought into that euphoria ? answer: more than you'll ever know.
small investors are like cattle.....they got caught in 2000, and will AGAIN in 2008.
This has been a repetitive pattern for ages.
Back in the crash of 1929, everyone knows of all the wealthy who lost it all and jumped out of windows, ...but what people don't know about are the ones who MADE A BLOODY FORTUNE sucking the wealth out of those who jumped off buildings. The money didn't just disappear, ...it simply changed hands, ...and there were those who got extremely wealthy in that crash. The same will occur in this upcoming crash.
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What are your thoughts on overseas investments. I have this as an option for my 401k and it has been a pretty good investment it seems thus far.
http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/index.cfm?story=glossary&symbol=HRINX
Is the impending doom of our economy going to affect overseas investments?
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What are your thoughts on overseas investments. I have this as an option for my 401k and it has been a pretty good investment it seems thus far.
http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/index.cfm?story=glossary&symbol=HRINX
Is the impending doom of our economy going to affect overseas investments?
You definitely want to be investing overseas while you still can. China & india IMO.
I have a sick feeling that pretty soon we may start seeing restriction on Americans where they won't be able to take their money overseas. Either that or taxing you so far up the wazoo, it wipes out any profit. Drastic, ...but I think that's gonna happen. The only ones who will be able to invest in areas that are growing and paying dividends, will be the elites. The same ones that would nail you to a cross for even thinking about vacationing in Cuba or even purchasing any Cuban manufactured item, ...but who themselves enjoy access to endless supplies of Cuban cigars anytime they want
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What are your thoughts on overseas investments. I have this as an option for my 401k and it has been a pretty good investment it seems thus far.
http://www.smartmoney.com/fundsnapshots/index.cfm?story=glossary&symbol=HRINX
Is the impending doom of our economy going to affect overseas investments?
globalization has connected all stock markets across the world, so depending how deep an impact a US recession has on other markets is still unknown. many believe a US recession will affect ALL markets. if the world's largest economy (US) struggles, most other economies will follow along.
HRINX's largest holding is in the financial sector.........do they hold bad US mortgages as well ?
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ok guys here's the deal......the CPI (consumer price index) came out today and it was HIGH (meaning high inflation) and the US Industrial Production number came in lower, meaning DECREASED I.P.
despite bad economic news day in and day out, it still looks like we may get that holiday rally before the market collapses (thanks to the Plunge Protection Team)
i'll keep you posted.
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Nice stuff in there. I'm no market expert by any stretch of the imagination, nor would I give advice on the sort. When I got out of the service, I had just over 3 years' salary sitting in my bank...I had about 8 grand or so in Savings Bonds, but that was the extent of my "investments." Otherwise, the cash just stayed in a savings account.
I wanted to invest in something, but nothing risky or some sort of venture. I ended up buying silver and gold. That's it. I obtained the silver via bullion, junk silver(Morgan Dollars), Silver Eagles, and Silver Maple Leafs. Gold came in the form of various different-ounce sized US Mint coins, and some private Mint bullion. I obtained the silver at around $6 per Troy ounce, and Gold was going for around $446 per Troy ounce. Well, you know what those are valued at today.
I found out I wanted no debt at all. My vehicles I paid for. Completely. I did not get a mortgage. I have 3 acres of land in northern Philippines and own a small house in a Buffalo, NY suburb of which I rent out to a few people I know. I have just one credit card, of which is sometimes necessary as I visit some of the nicer hotels in the world(they always ask for a credit card). I live in south Florida where I rent a quaint 2-bedroom house.
Could I have gotten rich off the real estate craze down here? Certainly. An economist friend of mine told me, and I'll always remember this......To understand the Market, is to understand Humanity. When you see the masses go one way(i.e. the Dot.Com craze, Real estate, etc...), go the complete opposite. However, what did I lose? Nothing. I have no debt(aside from bills and rent), have savings, and live a comfortable enough lifestyle. I'm not rich, nor do I endeavor to be....but I feel rich....I eat well, have plenty of free time, get to travel several times a year, etc.
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I obtained the silver via bullion, junk silver(Morgan Dollars), Silver Eagles, and Silver Maple Leafs. Gold came in the form of various different-ounce sized US Mint coins, and some private Mint bullion.
Paper money eventually returns to it's intrinsic value, zero - Voltaire.
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small investors are going to get their faces ripped off in this market.
of course just my opinion.
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small investors are going to get their faces ripped off in this market.
of course just my opinion.
...not to mention a few other body parts. The crash has alreay been triggered.
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...not to mention a few other body parts. The crash has alreay been triggered.
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traders are SELLING into any rally.
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guys, do NOT get sucked into ANY market rally at this point. if one happens to occur, it will be sold off rather quickly.
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Neoro, theres allways a chance of a computer driven Sell Stop blowout/ meltdown.
Stoploss sell orders trip like dominoes SO fast they cant be stopped.
The dow chart is looking very good long term now. Its established a very nice base up there.
It has nice technical stops under the highs...
Quit talking shit and learn to trade. That includes shorting ;)
On a pleasant note, your talk is as reasonable as the talking heads on CNBC MSN etc.
TIP- DONT LISTEN TO THEM AS YOU WATCH CHARTS AND TRADE. JUST WATCH THE CHARTS MOVE LIVE.
Read any trading book by Toni Turner or Jack Schwagert to get a feel for the charts.
There have been some cause for real cocern awhile back, the new base pretty much ends taht.
Almost NObody knows WTF they are talkin about on charts... Want some good learning sources PM me.
If your negative, learn to short. Its much more proitable tahn long. Fear strongetr than greed. 3x as strong is the rule.................... ....$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ ;)
Got to fly back to the NAS heat map now, no time to spell,,,,
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YOu know ZERO about the market... ;)
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If your negative, learn to short. Its much more proitable tahn long.
Bro contrarian trading strategies, are the epitome of money in a bull market, they rely on conversion...ex: "CNN Effect"
I have a friend that was a ghostwriter for some chock that was a cnbc analyst, he told me if here trading is anything like her idea or spelling well then the government may bring back debters prison
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Im no pro trader, I know a couple... Neuro gives no reason.. Where/ WHy is support going to breach?
Hes clueless.
But disaster meltdowns happen fast these days, that why many daytraders go "Flat" and never hold ovenight. They also ride > 2:1 margin leverage free for the day like that...
BIgest money bargin on Earth if ya gots the guts/balls and equity to ride...
Fuck mly Keying... Nuro aint worth cleaninitup... You get the pictures though..
Talks that shit he should play and get rich.. ;)
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Sure they cash out but that does not mean they do not lose money
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FYI.....SPX support is 1441.88. if it breaks, 1402.00 is next level of support.
trab, your out of your league.
DOUCHEBAG.
SO YOu Trades? You do... Nuro
Ive not paid close look lately... sounds like yur runnin a tight stop to me....
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Nero.... check this play.
How'z about sumfin like - HAFC (SHORT JUST FOR YOU ;)) if it trades <$9.2
Stop @ >9.8 for a point to 1.75 ride down?
What'ya think?
It didnt do much today (Up day), its been dying a slow death... Might as well bleed it out if the op arise.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
And, Heres sum more candy 4-U...... EICU EPIX COLY
Even YOU can (prolly) actually afford to play these,,,
And, WTF YOU worry about the DOW for?
You couldn't afford the minis ;D.
You talk a lot of shit. ;) $ee Ya!
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guys, pay no attention to the above asshole..... as i will.
Fuck you Dick face....Im in for a 100 block short. Check it, its breakin down further and aint gonna stop....
Ok... Play the bitch long, stupid. (Epic waffler ::)) Market expert ::)
Please, go long HAFC... Neuro.
Talk out your ass, Boy.
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guys, be careful not to get excited if they try to rally this dead market. it will be on LOW volume, which makes it easy for the floor guys to manipulate. i have not changed my long term outlook, which is still DOWN.
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It correcting thru time stupid.
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guys....here comes the Christmas/bonus rally !
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guys....here comes the Christmas/bonus rally ! ;D
Heres one of the best pros in the Biz.... this shits as time sensative as it git'z...
If you want some expart maket info hit up Larrys site..............
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE OPTION STRATEGIST
WEEKLY UPDATER 12/21/07
by McMillan Analysis Corp.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
Stock Market
The market has managed to struggle its way to the traditionally bullish holiday season without a major collapse. However, it certainly hasn't had much strong bullish action. $SPX broke down below the 1465-1470 support level early this week and has not been able to climb back about there since. So that now represents resistance. There is minor support at this week's lows (1435), but the real support is at the 1410 level -- near the closing lows of both the August and November declines. As we have stated before, form a broader perspective, $SPX seems to be in a wide and volatile trading range between roughly 1410 and 1560.
Equity-only put-call ratios are clinging to recent buy signals. There were buy signals issued about two weeks ago, but now the ratios have started moving higher again. The standard ratio (Figure 2) is right on the verge of moving to new highs, which would negate that buy signal. The weighted ratio feinted higher, but then yesterday confirmed the buy signal by moving to a new December low (Figure 3). So, these important ratios are still on buy signals, but not decisively so.
Market breadth reached very oversold levels early this week one of the factors in Tuesday afternoon's strong reflex rally. If in the next couple of days advancing issues lead declining issues by a decent margin, breadth buy signals will be generated.
Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have drifted lower this week, as option sellers have gotten aggressive. In one sense, $VIX is still in a downtrend that began in November, and that is bullish. However, the uptrend in $VIX that began in June (or October) is still intact as well, and that is bearish. So, depending on one's time horizon, he could interpret the trend of $VIX accordingly. For now, we'd have to rate $VIX as neutral (although not the $VIX futures -- more about that letter).
From these indicators, we are assuming a cautious attitude about the market unless $SPX can close above 1470. If that happens, the $SPX chart will have a more positive slant to it, and it is likely that the breadth oscillators will have generated buy signals, joining the equity- only put-call ratios. However, lacking that close above 1470, we are still cautious.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
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guys....here comes the Christmas/bonus rally ! ;D
Dont let "crab" bother you. He seems like an adrenilin junkie on a high ride. They always crash and dissapear like a dog licking its wounds for a time.
Bottomline is the cost of living is high with gas prices, utilities and etc. The middle class hasnt been able to keep up as far as income goes. They were thrown a bone full of arsneic when they were allowed to overvalue their homes and cashed out equity on boats and suv's...........now its time to pay and their credit is getting worse by the day.
Its like a pyramid scheme where you keep wanting those below you to make you rich at the top......and theres nothing more to give...theyll find out soon.
In order to get people outta this.... the market correction will have to be huge!!!!
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Dont let "crab" bother you. He seems like an adrenilin junkie on a high ride. They always crash and dissapear like a dog licking its wounds for a time.
Bottomline is the cost of living is high with gas prices, utilities and etc. The middle class hasnt been able to keep up as far as income goes. They were thrown a bone full of arsneic when they were allowed to overvalue their homes and cashed out equity on boats and suv's...........now its time to pay and their credit is getting worse by the day.
Its like a pyramid scheme where you keep wanting those below you to make you rich at the top......and theres nothing more to give...theyll find out soon.
In order to get people outta this.... the market correction will have to be huge!!!!
Fuck you Dumbass... Yeah right the markets going away tomorrow... ;D
Fine. My homes paid for and even if I'd blow out my PDTA I'd still go on nicely ....
Happy Hollidays Poor Boy....
Im sure your employers 401K is good for a guy like you. Youd never do better anyway... ;D
I put it right in front of you ,,,, The best in the game and you cant even comprehend shit. Bitch.
It all goes up and down and is too integrated to stop. Everyones in and they dont know it. Thats the dumb ones like you.
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http://www.lowrisk.com/crash/1929crash3.htm
Markets can crash... I dont personally see this happening though.
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Fuck you Dumbass... Yeah right the markets going away tomorrow... ;D
Fine. My homes paid for and even if I'd blow out my PDTA I'd still go on nicely ....
Happy Hollidays Poor Boy....
Im sure your employers 401K is good for a guy like you. Youd never do better anyway... ;D
I put it right in front of you ,,,, The best in the game and you cant even comprehend shit. Bitch.
It all goes up and down and is too integrated to stop. Everyones in and they dont know it. Thats the dumb ones like you.
You should remove my ballsack hairs from your teeth before you speak. Then maybe youll make sense. Try again cockgobbler.. ::)
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Amen war-horse ! ;D
Shit I thought i was on the Y board for a minute!! ;D
This "crab" is a tool. Thinking he has someone pegged on a internet board.......what an idiot.
Im a CEO with paid for crap also, and dont need a 401k for sure. However everyone here has a 20" arm and bences 500x12!!! 8)
Carryon with whatever you see out there NT.!!
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everyone keep in mind that floor traders at the NYSE make LARGE amounts of money with holiday bonuses. historically, 83% of the time traders move the market HIGHER during the "christmas rally". until proven otherwise, you should expect this to happen.
a damaged market can still trade higher, but the long term trend is DOWN.
enjoy the christmas rally guys !
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Nero, again,,,, You just take shit, my boy.
You give no direction.
SHould they go flat? Buy Puts,,, or some elaborate options strategy?
A bear fund?
You are simply talking shit, you know NOTHING.
I'd bet you've NEVER entered a stock trade, Never!
Same for your phony friend horse cock gobbler.
Your kind lets others run your money, you prolly should be scared.
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has covered world politics and economics for a quarter of a century. He is essential reading for anyone interested in how shifts in the world economy are changing the balance of political power.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?menuId=242&menuItemId=10299&view=COLUMNIST&grid=F7&targetRule=14 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?menuId=242&menuItemId=10299&view=COLUMNIST&grid=F7&targetRule=14)
Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=5A3TI2TOPEPLPQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/12/23/cccrisis123.xml&page=1 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=5A3TI2TOPEPLPQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/12/23/cccrisis123.xml&page=1)
Credit crisis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=DYBJTWR2ZV3BRQFIQMFSFFOAVCBQ0IV0?xml=%2Fmoney/exclusions/subprime/subprime.xml&_requestid=78455 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=DYBJTWR2ZV3BRQFIQMFSFFOAVCBQ0IV0?xml=%2Fmoney/exclusions/subprime/subprime.xml&_requestid=78455)
Financial outlook 2008
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;?xml=%2Fmoney/exclusions/hubpages/outlook2008/outlook2008.xml&_requestid=529790 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;?xml=%2Fmoney/exclusions/hubpages/outlook2008/outlook2008.xml&_requestid=529790)
Alot of great articles to read. :)
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THE OPTION STRATEGIST
WEEKLY UPDATER 12/28/07
by McMillan Analysis Corp.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
Stock Market
The 6-day rally that began in mid-December has apparently run its course, as the broad market took a tumble today. Nevertheless, there are some positive aspects in the technical indicators.
The chart of $SPX is the picture of a trading range. The wide trading range is between the extreme low closes at 1410 and the highs at 1560. But within that range, there are some trend lines that have developed (see Figure 1). These two trendlines define a range that is dampening down. That is, the oscillations in $SPX are getting smaller and smaller as it first bounces off the declining trend line and then the rising one. Technicians call this a triangle, although that is irrelevant. What is important is that a break of either trendline will likely be a catalyst for $SPX to make a substantial move from that point. So, roughly, a move above 1500 would be bullish and a move below 1450 would be bearish. We shouldn't have to wait long for that breakout to occur.
The equity-only put-call ratios are bullish. From Figures 2 & 3 you can see that buy signals are in place, although it wouldn't take a huge move to negate the standard signal.
Market breadth has generated a new sell signal, which is the only confirmed sell signal that we have right now.
Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have been declining, thus imparting a bullish interpretation for the stock market. However, the decline reached the lower, gently upward-sloping trend line (see Figure 4) and that might be the end of the decline in $VIX.
In summary, the technical indicators are somewhat bullish right now (the only true sell signal being breadths). However, there are some nagging, negative factors out there, and we'd want to see some resolution of those before going outright long.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/DontCountOnANormalRecession.aspx
You'z guys Bear scenario is not without merit.... Has lots to it in fact. But give your survival plan.
I'm eager to hear it (if you have any)
Shit happens REAL FAST these days, but I think any blowout will be rebought within months at the longest.
But Something monumental and disastrous over in the primitive lands w/ oil could change that in a instant.
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what is up today interchangable tax loss selling and exits from public investments?
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don't say you weren't warned.
So.... Just where did you put you $19.99 when you went flat? ;D
Invest it in Gay porn?
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Guys, this ride down will feel like a slow bleedout. People will be hurt.
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Thats what stops are for kid.
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Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages rose 35 percent in November to a record, an industry report today showed, adding to evidence the U.S. housing slump is deepening.
The number of insured borrowers falling more than 60 days late on payments jumped to 61,033 last month from 45,325 in November 2006, according to data from members of the Washington- based Mortgage Insurance Companies of America. The missed payments, often a prelude to foreclosure, represented a 2.9 percent increase from October.
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -The U.S. factory sector contracted in December for the first time in nearly a year as new orders collapsed, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday.
The ISM index fell to 47.7% from 50.8% in November. It's the lowest reading since April 2003 and the first sub-50 reading since January 2007.
"This will fan recession concerns," wrote Stephen Gallagher, U.S. economist for Societe Generale.
The new-orders index fell to 45.7% from 52.6%, the lowest since October 2001, as the nation was pulling out of the last recession. Just 15% of firms reported rising orders; the percentage has been lower only once in the past 25 years
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LOL. Its gonna be fun. What gets me is the narrowminded guys like crabby that have blinders on for their own little window.
They dont see all the parameters of these actions.....
Were looking at the overall markets and how the economy is affected, and all he's doing is standing on the stock floor with his hand in his boyfriends ass.
Good stuff Neuro !!
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umm, ...just wondering, ...but shouldn't this thread be on the business board? ???
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LOL. Its gonna be fun. What gets me is the narrowminded guys like crabby that have blinders on for their own little window.
They dont see all the parameters of these actions.....
Were looking at the overall markets and how the economy is affected, and all he's doing is standing on the stock floor with his hand in his boyfriends ass.
Good stuff Neuro !!
I see exactly whats'up... Clearer than you... Ive watched this going down from out of the USA perspective for a longtime.. YOur possible Bear event is real... It wont be the kind of event like the depression chart link I put up.
Dow could have to stabilise at 12 area for a year is my worst case scenario.
Its got way too much support there not to......
I'm not inany GOvt baited accounts... They dont rule my future. Frankly leaving the USA is in my list of options.
Your right about 99% of idiots w/ no clue to their market exposure though.
But stops can protect you if your a player... If your a player you dont give a crap about market direction anyway.
My pro friend likes bear markets better. 3X speed of movement.
But it just all keeps gettin rebought in time.. Too much money out there not to. Needs go somewhere.
Jag - NO! NitwitToxin is just a agitator. Picture Squadfather w/ a highschool education... ;D
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
Last update: 8:39 a.m. EST Jan. 3, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Private-sector companies in the U.S. added 40,000 jobs in December, according to the ADP employment report released Thursday.
It's the weakest growth since 27,000 jobs were added in August.
Along with other evidence that the economy is slowing, the ADP report is likely to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again later this month to boost growth.
Services industries added 71,000 jobs in December, while goods-producing industries cut 31,000 jobs, including 16,000 in manufacturing, ADP reported.
Factory employment has fallen for 18 straight months. On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing diffusion index fell to 47.7% in December, the lowest in nearly five years.
The two sectors hit hardest by the mortgage crisis continued to shed jobs in December, ADP said, citing unpublished data. Construction firms cut 17,000 jobs, the 13th consecutive monthly decline. Financial services firms reduced employment by 5,000, the third decline in the past five months.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level in more than two years, a further sign of a weakening labor market.
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Yup.....
THIng is, when the shit hits the fan, its even worse in the other countries.
OUr cold, is their flu.
Make up a chart block of indian, chineeze, and other hot backwater stocks.
Check it on the next correction and see just what gets flushed 1st and hardest by the money boys....
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guys........
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. said U.S. auto sales fell in December, capping the worst year in a decade, and predicted that 2008 probably won't be any better.
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Shopping list....
NOV @ 65
DO @ 115
BHP @ 55-67
RTP @ 327
ABX @ 37
SOME XOM & COP would be worth stalking to......
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Trab we understand that someones loss is someones gain. It will be a buyers market as houses and goods re-adjust their prices to keep consumers spending.
But thinking that the money will stay here in the usa and recirculate to keep the markets above 12,000 is a mistake. The corps are allready heading overseas for higher profits etc.
We will have a situation of 50 guys applying for 1 job, and as is the american way, the employer may say you will work for 5 dollars an hour or the next guy in line will.........
This will continue to weaken the dollar as more problems arise in wages and cost of goods here.
A superpower is getting weaker.
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Oh, yes. THere is SO much wrong w/ the USA I cant begin to list it.
I wish Id left when I cashed out my last property and not bought another home here.
No way I'd get back what I paid, (But the 1st property was a sweet killing).
ANd even worse,,, much of that stock money is NOT simply transferd in a crash.
(SHorts dont take it back 1:1 off long loss)
Much (can) dissapears into thin air, same place it came from.
But -ALLthem stuff inthe grouond tickers I listed up there are prolly a good bet long term IMO.
Catch a falling knife is not a good play, but the long term fundies of all those are solid IMO.
They have been.
It could go down very bad for months,,, and when a guy should have invested his US$'s in backward developing countries instead of holding them its a sad statment for the country..
But take care of yourself.
I dont think the market is going to fall apart. Get used to $100 oil. Expect $1000 gold in a couple years unless the Mid East all Kiss and make up... ;D
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Oil will definitely drop at some point as the base of the economy slows and conserves or sells off extra cars.......I count 5 vehicles, a motorhome and a ski boat in my driveway right now. I dont really need them but if i was making payments on them id sure dump them!!!
Im sure even the lower class has 2-3 vehicles (older model) and will sell off to raise cash soon or cut expenses. Supply and demand will take over soon.
Gold is where alot of my money will be going soon.
Thats the point of Neuro,s thread here....Hes not saying all hells breaking loose right now..........but the ropes are starting to break on King Kong and you better take notice.
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U.S. Payrolls Rise 18,000, Smallest Gain Since 2003 (Update2)
By Bob Willis
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Hiring in the U.S. slowed more than forecast in December and unemployment jumped to a two-year high, raising the odds the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by half a point this month to ward off a recession.
Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003, after a 115,000 gain in November that was larger than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.0 percent from 4.7 percent in November.
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ITG on your allert/watch list NOW.....
.
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U.S. Payrolls Rise 18,000, Smallest Gain Since 2003 (Update2)
By Bob Willis
Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Hiring in the U.S. slowed more than forecast in December and unemployment jumped to a two-year high, raising the odds the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by half a point this month to ward off a recession.
Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003, after a 115,000 gain in November that was larger than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.0 percent from 4.7 percent in November.
They dont seem to realize that just lowering interest rates is not going to cut it. The credit standards have been tightened from the housing market making it impossible for most of americans to get more credit anyway.......And they couldnt if they tried because their debt to income is now ridiculous.( A borrowers economy)
It is the cost of the homes and consumer goods that have to adjust so the average 12 dollar an hour worker has something to spend. Up until now and the next few months, any credit cards they now have will be maxed........and we'll see bancruptcy and for closures hit unbelievable levels.
Its gonna be a trainwreck. Most wealthiar people dont see how this will affect them, but it will because capitialism is set up like a "Pyramid Scheme" where the money really does flow in from the bottom..........( Most of the economy is based on GDP)and eventually the bottom have nothing left to give, leaving the top with losses also.
It doesnt help that the dollar is getting weaker all the time, it wont get stronger until people are able to spend again...........
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THey are going to have to lower int rates.
That will test the US$ further... But the Euro is not worth the premium its getting.
USA has much more potential and resources of every kind than W Europe.
Gold and silver are going to run further IMO gold will eventually establish a $1000 base.
So a nice size ring will set ya back 5 Benjamin's.
Alex should buy back his Oil and service Cos at a point w/ a safe stop under it and chase it back up.
They aint makin more oil.
Look @ XOM COP NOV right now... We cant live w/ out that stuff. People go hungry first...
Some interesting points on the US$.
http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=money&vid=884dd618-e5ed-410d-8ef8-2a0d16ecb544&playlist=videoByTag:tag:money_top_investing:ns:MSNmoney_Gallery:mk:us:vs:1&from=MSNmoney_TodaysPick&tab=s216
Your correct in the guys running the show are clueless how bad it is.
They dont get into the real world ever.
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They dont seem to realize that just lowering interest rates is not going to cut it. The credit standards have been tightened from the housing market making it impossible for most of americans to get more credit anyway.......And they couldnt if they tried because their debt to income is now ridiculous.( A borrowers economy)
It is the cost of the homes and consumer goods that have to adjust so the average 12 dollar an hour worker has something to spend. Up until now and the next few months, any credit cards they now have will be maxed........and we'll see bancruptcy and for closures hit unbelievable levels.
Its gonna be a trainwreck. Most wealthiar people dont see how this will affect them, but it will because capitialism is set up like a "Pyramid Scheme" where the money really does flow in from the bottom..........( Most of the economy is based on GDP)and eventually the bottom have nothing left to give, leaving the top with losses also.
It doesnt help that the dollar is getting weaker all the time, it wont get stronger until people are able to spend again...........
the fed is a one trick pony....all they have is interest rate cuts. if they cut again at the next meeting, inflation will continue to soar and the dollar will plunge.
right now..................... the fed is fvcked.
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A superpower is getting weaker.
Bro you know in India they no longer accept the dollar in heavily invested tourist areas? :o
The Indian officials tell the public "the rupee is more logical than the US dollar"
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the fed is a one trick pony....all they have is interest rate cuts. if they cut again at the next meeting, inflation will continue to soar and the dollar will plunge.
right now..................... the fed is fvcked.
They are not fvcked - The average American PPL are.
Those guys live quite nice... Its not going to disturb their golf game much at all....
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Bro you know in India they no longer accept the dollar in heavily invested tourist areas? :o
The Indian officials tell the public "the rupee is more logical than the US dollar"
Right now we must find hapiness in other things....like your avatar, Mmmmm makes me hungry!! ;D
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They are not fvcked - The average American PPL are.
Those guys live quite nice... Its not going to disturb their golf game much at all....
They will feel it. It will take a little longer because theyre at the top of the "Pyramid scheme" called capitialism. The bottom feeds the top and it will hurt them. If things get to tough between those that "have" and those that "dont Have" then i can see a mutiny happening.
As someone becomes desparate for food or housing they will gladly slice your throat open for a loaf of bread....and they'll feel Justified for doing it.....
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They are not fvcked - The average American PPL are.
Those guys live quite nice... Its not going to disturb their golf game much at all....
Like Ernest Hemingway said "We are people. We read. We are not dumb. We are machinist."
In order for them to live fruitful they must keep the machines working.
They only have 1 tool (interest rates) unlike the public who had many (retail, real estate, etc.)
They must maintain their tool to maintain status quo, but like Neuro said what is that going to really do this time around?
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We'll see, but I dont think going all in on Euros is the smart thing.
This shit turns on a dime.
Look at SWHC now (S&W Handguns) That bitch was fun to trade, and ya knew it was WAY overvalued and I didnt care. It just a matter or risk/reward and a stop thet is in order w/ your entry opportunity.
Gapping down (or up, if short) is your danger, and you then follow disaster gap rules.
Listen to Jubac on that video about the US$.
Its not getting wholesale dumped anytime. Yes, It will decline more.
They need to clean up all these crooked shoe salesmen taht went into writing home loans.
F'ing ARM's esp need to be changed.
Why should we all bite the bullet for assholes that were irresponsible?
Now we hurt to save them, and its SO bad that not bailing them out hurts us even more ::)
THe lesson is irresponsibility pays in America.
They deserve to lose their homes is the fact.
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THe lesson is irresponsibility pays in America.
Damage is already done. The accountability went straight across the board.
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Damage is already done. The accountability went straight across the board.
Exactly. The fed let the mortgage companies sell these loans because most were backed by wallstreet anyway. The numbers pumped higher and it made the Bush administration look like he was doing something good on the spreadsheet.
But most of these were "stated income loans" which are liar loans where you can make up a number of your income and it goes thru w/out verification.
Those will be banned. ARM loans will need to be controlled also.
But as the people lose their homes it will affect all the way thru the economy.
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alex23, while you were in diapers with crap in your pants, i was working the floor at the NYSE.
have a great weekend. ;)
Sweeping the bitch at night!! ;D
Your so fucking smart, it'd show a tiny bit.....
If you Know Jack? Show a smidgen.... You aint got it... so you cant.....
I dont see evidence you've EVER placed a trade in your life....
Another shit talker here.....
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Sweeping the bitch at night!! ;D
Your so fucking smart, it'd show a tiny bit.....
If you Know Jack? Show a smidgen.... You aint got it... so you cant.....
I dont see evidence you've EVER placed a trade in your life....
Another shit talker here.....
He's ran circle's around you trab. All you do is talk about trades and stops.
Lets see some overall understanding of the economy and how it works. You are a one trick pony and prolly would have lost you ass if not picking up some knowledge from NT.
Now why dont you be a little 5 year old and hurl an insult, like the little dicknibbler that you are.....
P.S. Hows roofing going?? Cover yout tracks, better ...... ;)
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I dont roof.
If Nero was a floor trader, I got much respect for him, but Neither of you have shown the least evidence that you even know WTF a conditional order is, much less ever entered any trade on your own...
In that case.... :-*
I'm not a pro trader, but neither of you has shown you know Jack shit about trading.
I'd love to hear some War Stories from The Floor. And what'z his idea of whats up, and where its going and a plan, instead of some Sky is Falling someday song.
The fact is nobody knows where the market is going for sure.
And most explinations of what moved it are fantasy to fill air time.
I can pull those stories out the the news all day too. It don't give any plan to respond,,,
AND - Most Pro Traders give a rats ass about the direction of market anyway.
Many prefer the short side..
Nobody here but me has made a statement w/ ANY credibility.
Anyone can say the sky is falling over and over.
Friday the Dow chart closed ugly on every timeframe from Weekly to the 1 minute. ANd closed on its low for all practical purposes. That dont bode well for the next open.
I personally closed out all but one of everyone in the families mutuals Late Sept.
That bottoming tail on the 8/16 daily, allthough a classic bottom reversal signal, is SUCH a abberation to anything in 4yrs taht it made me real uncomfortable..... The subsequent rise I suspected, and got out on.
Now, we can talk shakeouts onthe next retest all we want, and its only the DOW, but I'm not gettin trapped for years in a stagnant market..
But I dont really think she's done going up.... I'm Not exactly gonna buy TOL or tag along w/ Buffet on USG either, and put ALL finance in that trash bin too.....
PROVE it Nero. Back your shit up a little if you were a floor trader... Dont need Pictures for this kids...
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You made a post saying you didnt think the DOW would go below 12,000 too. Thats assinine is what was told to you. The market was artificially inflated due too the inflood of money from the money guys....Just as NT said, theyll do it to get thru the holidays and drop it like a rock.
Its happening even sooner.....Mr Corporate (Bush) now will leave a train wreck for the next administration to deal with. (I see dow down to 8,000 in a year or two as the dollar continues to be attacked.)
FYI, no one gives a shit if you stand on the stockfloor doing "Real" trades or not. You seem to be missing the point that NT was just warning us about some patterns to be aware of, and you and Alex23 were laughing it off in the first sections of this thread. Now i see alex agreeing a little and you too. Which is a good thing.... 8)
BTW, I play with commodities, so i aint afraid of a little fun.
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You made a post saying you didnt think the DOW would go below 12,000 too. Thats assinine is what was told to you. The market was artificially inflated due too the inflood of money from the money guys....Just as NT said, theyll do it to get thru the holidays and drop it like a rock.
Its happening even sooner.....Mr Corporate (Bush) now will leave a train wreck for the next administration to deal with. (I see dow down to 8,000 in a year or two as the dollar continues to be attacked.)
FYI, no one gives a shit if you stand on the stockfloor doing "Real" trades or not. You seem to be missing the point that NT was just warning us about some patterns to be aware of, and you and Alex23 were laughing it off in the first sections of this thread. Now i see alex agreeing a little and you too. Which is a good thing.... 8)
BTW, I play with commodities, so i aint afraid of a little fun.
Pffttt...... still not a word on strategy or reason or a bit of knowledge.
Anyone dont see the USA economy has probs right now is blind and stupid.
You have ZERO credibility....
I ain't bullish , I told you what I did and why... You two seem to just spin fortune wheel or throw darts...
I feel the DOW could need to correct thru time around 12. It could touch 8 in a cascade of stops blowing out and panic selling. I dont see 8 as a base ever again in our life.
But hey, Nobody knows...
I'm longterm bullish on Oil and Oil services and stuff in the ground and Gold.
Dont mean go long and forget it........
I really want to hear about the NYSE floor, I'm not shittin'. Sounds like He should have some awesome stories.
Totall apology if its true, but he's not shown one bit of market knowledge and all I see him do is agitate for attention.
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Pffttt...... still not a word on strategy or reason or a bit of knowledge.
Anyone dont see the USA economy has probs right now is blind and stupid.
You have ZERO credibility....
I ain't bullish , I told you what I did and why... You two seem to just spin fortune wheel or throw darts...
I feel the DOW could need to correct thru time around 12. It could touch 8 in a cascade of stops blowing out and panic selling. I dont see 8 as a base ever again in our life.
But hey, Nobody knows...
I'm longterm bullish on Oil and Oil services and stuff in the ground and Gold.
Dont mean go long and forget it........
I really want to hear about the NYSE floor, I'm not shittin'. Sounds like He should have some awesome stories.
Totall apology if its true, but he's not shown one bit of market knowledge and all I see him do is agitate for attention.
There you go again with "credibility" ..........who gives a shit. This is an opinion page and everyone may have one. Im not running for office, and couldnt care less on where your trades are going.....
You seem to be stuck on one issue, whereas we are discussing a bigger picture and before we know HOW to move the chess peice..........we must know WHY to move it.
You have contributed nothing to this thread and i dont understand why you fight so hard for "Credibility"??????? :-\
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So Windsor, what did you move your funds to?
Hey I flipped the tube last nite and caught some "Mad Money" and yep, some people out there are still buying chips, cause cramer tells them. You know his portfolio etc. has never been audited? He claims that 24% return for like 13 years but no actual proof of it.
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So Windsor, what did you move your funds to?
Hey I flipped the tube last nite and caught some "Mad Money" and yep, some people out there are still buying chips, cause cramer tells them. You know his portfolio etc. has never been audited? He claims that 24% return for like 13 years but no actual proof of it.
I have moved it into Pimco Total Return Fund.
It is basically 90% cash and 10% bonds.
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www.optionstratigist.com
You cant trade news, or emotions .... Well you can, but your called "Dumb Money" then.
THE OPTION STRATEGIST
WEEKLY UPDATER 01/04/08
by McMillan Analysis Corp.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
Stock Market
The stock market has been in a rather ugly funk since Christmas. In four consecutive trading days, $SPX lost a total of 50 points. Somewhat surprisingly, this decline has not convincingly thrown the indicators into a bearish mode, but it has certainly hurt the bullish case.
The $SPX chart is still a neutral one, despite the recent losses. The index remains within a large triangle (see Figure 1, red lines). Or, from an even wider perspective, $SPX is in a large, volatile trading range (blue lines on Figure 1). Near-term, a violation of support at 1440 (this week's lows) will likely lead to a quick retest of the 1410 level. A drop below there would likely mean that a bear market has begun. On the upside, there is resistance at a variety of previous tops, from 1500 all the way up to 1560.
The equity-only put-call ratios (Figures 2 and 3) have not followed through on their buy signals from about a month ago. In fact, both ratios have now turned upward. That cancels out the buy signals and throws these indicators back into a sell signal. At the least, this means that a new stock market bottom will have to form; at worst, it means much lower prices lie ahead for stocks.
Breadth is negative, but has yet to reach oversold territory -- a prerequisite to setting up an eventual buy signal.
Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) are following a pattern similar to $SPX: they are in a wide triangle, and until they definitively break out of that triangle, they can be considered more or less neutral. A close by $VIX above 24 would be bearish.
In summary, the put-call ratios and breadth are negative. All that's awaiting final confirmation of an all-out bearish signal is 1) a $VIX close above 24, and 2) and $SPX close below 1440.
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guys, as this market goes lower, there will be a great opportunity in buying the beaten down financial sector. most of the big guys are currently sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the right opportunity to get in.
i will give you a heads up when the time comes. this opportunity comes very rarely and will pay off handsomely.
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Yeah I'd imagine there will be a few upswings here and there thru the year. Bush (Corporate) doesnt want to leave office in a full scale depression.
Hes gonna have to gently work it until its a total bust for the next administration.
Hes such a dumbass he doesnt know 80% of america know its his policys anyway... ::)
My mother called me today and said shes losing 100 dollars a day in her 401k......Shes gonna have to cash out or put into CD's....Is that good advice???? She doesnt want to ride the market like us, just keep what she has...
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Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell as worse-than- expected home sales and an increase in late payments by AT&T Inc.'s customers sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level since March.
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I'm putting togheter a stock contest on http://www.investopedia.com
Are you in?
Alex? Do they have a simulator you like? Ive never seen one Ive cared for.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080108markets.aspx
I personally dont see how Gold dont go to a Grand base.
Int% rates got to drop, and the US$ will follow.
PM me some time..... Mr Nitwit - (AKA The Sky is falling sometime), but dont know where and when and how hard its gonna fall - is a bunch of air.
BTW them opportunities after the storm may not last long.
Go back and look at the May 11 2006 - July 20's trauma on the DOW chart.....
The sky was fallilng then too.... Look @ the next leg up.
If Mr. nitwit was handling institutional size postions that takes a diff kind of play.
You cant just unload them guys sized positons w/ a stop like a on a PDTA.
Hey, Neuro prove your shit and I'll bow down if you were a market maker or specialist ... ;)
I what to hear floor war stories.
War HOrse, you tipped you hand bad askin about moms accounts... The only commodities I'd suggest ya dabble in are a bag of sugar for your coffee.
Mom needs look at her accounts the penalty hit, Her age, health, if the fund can be reentered,,,etc
I dont like Bush either at theis juncture, but these conspiracy theories are BS and show frustrated PPL w/ no
sense of direction. Bush can not move the market, nor can the Govt or Hedge funds controll the price of somthing like gold. Not much, or for long.
The Markets are too big these days. Its not the days of Jesse Livermore.
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guys, as this market hits key support, expect a temporary upside soon. this will not change the overall direction in this market......which is still lower.
US recessionary pressures have traders in a firm defensive stance.
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Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell as worse-than- expected home sales and an increase in late payments by AT&T Inc.'s customers sent the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level since March.
Merrily Lynch officially declared a recission is in our near future. A Harvard college economist proclaimed very large chance of stagflation economy.
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks seesawed higher on Wednesday as bargain hunters stepped back into a market that has knocked about 600 points off the Dow so far this year.
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Dont worry trab. I considered penalties and such items in the 401k.
Shes retirement age so the timing is perfect, like NT has proved since this thread started...(See posts above me) Now your going to follow like a little lamb. ;)
CD's are looking good about now, just like NT said.
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ok guys here's the deal, the market hit a key "support level' late in the day and buyers moved in and the market bounced. (see above)
earning will decide where we take this market going forward. over the short term i expect a move to the upside before we go lower again. the DOW 12,000 area is my next target..... on the downside.
i would not be surprized to see us near DOW 10,000 by the end of the year. i could be wrong, but my experience says otherwise.
NT
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two great videos
how to succeed investing
The Coming Economic Collapse?
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cramer is full of shit, that clown blew-up a hedge fund. he was also fired from the TV show kudlow @ cramer. why?......for losing larry kudlows money with shit stock advise.(allegedly)
the only reason cramer still has a TV show is because he has information on CNBC (insider trading info. with CNBC from his hedge fund days etc.) that could ruin the network. (allegedly)
all the above is alleged. ;)
NT
Jimmy is a disaster. He's entertainment at best. The fact he's allowed to continue his show is a head scratcher.
His antics w/ the allegations about hedge manipulations would seem an invitation to a investigation of himself. Was odd....
A 10K Dow base would be a disaster. THe only + things can be said about the Dow chart close today is the weekly may not make a lower low by Friday close and the 15-1min are up (but are about to run right into resitsance again).
My guess may correct at 12s for a time.
If the 3/2 - 3/23 lows are breached (esp 1193 3/16th) it will get real interesting fast.
How far down and how long before panic selling stops may be damn exciting.
Much of the general public will be oblivious. ;D
Thats a good thing.
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Bookmark..
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The consumer is bled dry. That is the message from an earnings warning at Capital One (COF). Mortgage lending was getting bad, but the latest news is that auto and credit card lending are falling apart.
According to The Wall Street Journal "Capital One is expected to announce today that it expects charge-offs of $5.9 billion in 2008, up from its October forecast of $4.9 billion to $5.5 billion, partly because of worsening economic indicators that include rising unemployment."
But, consumers have nothing but lint in their pockets now. They were the last, best hope that GDP was not likely to move into reverse.
Now, the question is how bad it will be and for how long.
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The question is if printing more green toiletpaper will even help........
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The question is if printing more green toiletpaper will even help........
No, It just goes to the top earners and helps float the top of the "pyramid scheme" for a little while longer.....Its a bandaid.
Christmas was the last Hoorah and now its gonna get bad.
The pyramid depends on the middle class to keep shoving money in from the bottom...(GDP). Everyone has spent money they dont have.
BTW. Im not saying sky is falling. The market will adjust but not without a huge correction in home prices, utilites, food, gas etc.
It will take a year or two to hit bottom and will bounce back if you can reduce expenses for the middle class such as fixing healthcare for boomers and such.
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expect a temporary upside to this market before we again go lower.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday rallied after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled more interest-rate cuts ahead and The Wall Street Journal reported Bank of America Corp. is in talks to buy Countrywide Financial Corp., sending shares of the troubled mortgage provider soaring 61%.
as expected, the market has rallied. it will ultimately fail again.
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LOL. Its the rich feeding the rich. ;D
They just dont get it. They could drop interst to 1.1% and people still couldnt buy.........they just dont have it... :-\
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LOL. Its the rich feeding the rich. ;D
They just dont get it. They could drop interst to 1.1% and people still couldnt buy.........they just dont have it... :-\
so true, people don't get it. the housing boom fueled the u.s. consumer, that's over. lower interest rates will further fan the inflation flames, which will ultimately result in stagflation.
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Add Goldman Sachs' economists to the list of forecasters predicting a recession in the U.S. economy this year. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said he now expects a mild recession lasting two or three quarters this year, with a cumulative drop in gross domestic product of about 0.5%. "The latest data suggest that recession has now arrived, or will very shortly," Hatzius wrote in a note to clients Wednesday. The Goldman economist expects the jobless rate to rise from 5% to 6.25% by the end of the year. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut its overnight lending rate target from 4.25% to 2.5%, Hatzius said. He expects consumer spending to decline for the first time since 1991.
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i have spoken about the plunge protection team earlier. interesting article.
01/08/2008
Bush convenes Plunge Protection Team
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Bears beware. The New Deal of 2008 is in the works. The US Treasury is about to shower households with rebate cheques to head off a full-blown slump, and save the Bush presidency. On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash.
It appears to have powers to support the markets in a crisis with a host of instruments, mostly by through buying futures contracts on the stock indexes (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell) and key credit levers. And it has the means to fry "short" traders in the hottest of oils.
The team is led by Treasury chief Hank Paulson, ex-Goldman Sachs, a man with a nose for market psychology, and includes Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the key exchange regulators.
Judging by a well-briefed report in the Washington Post, a mood of deep alarm has taken hold in the upper echelons of the administration. "What everyone's looking at is what is the fastest way to get money out there," said a Bush aide.
Emergency measures are now clearly on the agenda, apparently consisting of a mix of tax cuts for businesses and bungs for consumers. Fiscal action all too appropriate, regrettably.
We face a version of Keynes's "extreme liquidity preference" in the 1930s - banks are hoarding money, and the main credit arteries of the financial system remain blocked after five months.
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and these firms want YOUR money to "manage" ?
Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the third- largest U.S. securities firm, may write down $15 billion related to U.S. mortgage losses, almost twice its original forecast, the New York Times reported, citing people briefed on the plan.
Analysts had estimated that the New York-based firm would announce a markdown of about $12 billion when it reports fourth- quarter earnings next week, adding to an $8.4 billion charge in the previous quarter. Losses on bets related to U.S. mortgages prompted the ouster of Chief Executive Officer Stan O'Neal in October and his replacement by John Thain a month later.
Merrill is trying to raise $4 billion from investors in the U.S., Asia and the Middle East to shore up its finances, the newspaper said, citing the same people. U.S. and European banks and securities firms including Merrill have already turned to Asian and Middle Eastern governments for about $34 billion.
``It's going to be a tough year for investors,'' said Hugh Young,
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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks dropped steeply Friday, with the Dow headed toward its most dismal first-eight-trading-days-of-a-year run in 17 years, as write-downs and slashed earnings forecasts signaled slowing consumer spending and sparked increased talk of a recession.
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NT
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if you decide to stay in stocks for the time being......definitely get OUT after Christmas. the shit will surely hit the fan after the holiday.....if not sooner.
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks dropped steeply Friday, with the Dow headed toward its most dismal first-eight-trading-days-of-a-year run in 17 years, as write-downs and slashed earnings forecasts signaled slowing consumer spending and sparked increased talk of a recession.
"a sparked increased talk of recession?" are they kidding us ? the recession is already here and the stock market is reflecting that fact.
by the time our government finally admits the u.s. is in a recession.......it's too LATE to exit the market.
i will try and provide Gbers with unfiltered, unbiased information that will assist you in making your own decisions........if you so chose.
when things turn around and head positive, i will be the first to say so.
NT
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I don't know shit about the stock market....I have one of those plans based on my age/ retirement age that lets them handle the decisions as to ratio of stocks to bonds my money is invested in. Right now most is in stocks. :(
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I don't know shit about the stock market....I have one of those plans based on my age/ retirement age that lets them handle the decisions as to ratio of stocks to bonds my money is invested in. Right now most is in stocks. :(
unfortunately, unless you carry an account with a large 7+ figure balance, no one "manages" your account.
think about it, if your account was managed, why haven't you received a call (i assume) to alter your asset allocation while the Dow is dropping like a rock(nearly 2,000 points) and the economy is headed into a bad recession ? answer: because no one is looking at your account.
NT
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unfortunately, unless you carry an account with a large 7+ figure balance, no one "manages" your account.
think about it, if your account was managed, why haven't you received a call (i assume) to alter your asset allocation while the Dow is dropping like a rock(nearly 2,000 points) and the economy is headed into a bad recession ? answer: because no one is looking at your account.
all opinion, no advice.
NT
of coarse they don't. What I ment was the program I'm in changes the ratio of stocks to bonds the older I get.
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of coarse they don't. What I ment was the program I'm in changes the ratio of stocks to bonds the older I get.
sorry, i misunderstood your prior post.
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of coarse they don't. What I ment was the program I'm in changes the ratio of stocks to bonds the older I get.
It's a neural net, and it only works efficiently as the person in charge.
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where's alex23 and trab now? ???
I'm fine thank you..... As I said, I (Whole family for that matter) clean'd them all out execpt one sometime back. ;)
In cash and waiting........
PPT is fantasy. YOu think the same GW Bush taht put ground troops smack dab in the center of the Muslim world is smart enough to manipulate the market? ;D :'(
If so, get in touch, Ive investment op's for you that COULD possibly return 5000%+..
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where's alex23 and trab now? ???
He actually got his fat ass to a pad and pencil and he's busy taking notes from Ron Paul.
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PPT is fantasy. YOu think the same GW Bush taht put ground troops smack dab in the center of the Muslim world is smart enough to manipulate the market? ;D :'(
Bush convenes Plunge Protection Team
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
1:18am GMT 1/11/2008
On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash.
It appears to have powers to support the markets in a crisis with a host of instruments, mostly by through buying futures contracts on the stock indexes (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell) and key credit levers. And it has the means to fry "short" traders in the hottest of oils.
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PPT is fantasy.
Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
12:09am GMT 10/30/2006
Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown Judging by their body language, the US authorities believe the roaring bull market this autumn is just a suckers' rally before the inevitable storm hits.
Hank Paulson, the market-wise Treasury Secretary who built a $700m fortune at Goldman Sachs, is re-activating the 'plunge protection team' (PPT), a shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency, and credit futures in a crash.
Otherwise known as the working group on financial markets, it was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown in October 1987.
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LOL. Trab gets his ass handed to him time after time.... ;D
PPT. How else do you explain the infusion of money into the market, when everyone else is in a panic and HOARDING theirs?? ::)
And I agree Bush isnt smart enough to wipe his own ass after a shit......But heres a clue for you. The corporate systems like the Bildeburgs are running the show as regards money.......Bush is just along for the ride and is told what to do. There are secret systems intact.... :o
He is purposly wrecking the american dollar and its economy because a broken people will more likely accept a "New world Order" and global economy.
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He is purposly wrecking the american dollar and its economy because a broken people will more likely accept a "New world Order" and global economy.
What we will see in the coming years is a capitalists take over of the dollar, controlling it's influence in the making in the past, and controlling it's demise in the future, to a more convenient stronger paperback.
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Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to within a cent of its all-time low versus the euro on speculation U.S. interest rates will drop below those of the 15 nations that share the single European currency for the first time in three years.
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Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to within a cent of its all-time low versus the euro on speculation U.S. interest rates will drop below those of the 15 nations that share the single European currency for the first time in three years.
prepare to wipe your ass with our greenback if teh Fed drops rates again. >:(
Duh, Thats a given,,,,, allready done deal..... SHould'a maxed out and put it in backwater countries currencies.....
But read thies about yur PPT... I just don't buy into it (PPT). Markets too large (these days esp)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
http://www.safehaven.com/article-721.htm
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
NEO - Dont you worry one little bit....... HELLICOPTER BEN IS COMING TO THE RESCUE!!!!! ;)
Git out Yur ButterFly nets and just scoop thet money from the $ky when he starts'a throwin' it!!!
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wow mind numbing brilliance "Just traders taking profit, either on the long side or short side."
Mauldin is a choppy unrelenting writer. His tune changes with each page, believing in preservation of liquidity during bear markets but then targeting "where the money flows" approach the next page over, by "targeting the future" by giving "value to the market"
Oh he has also been wrong in predicting economic cycles as a whole, nevermind the direction of a stock...if you can't see macro trends your off by a mile on micro trends.
If your going to follow someone like John you would know that he does agree with the situation at hand now....that "stocks will one day trade at single digits"
PPT is real, it stems from two parts 1 part investor psychology and another part algorithms something the capitalists were looking into when mathematician Hardy during the 1900's was relentless in trading technicals.
Not to mention the information that goes to a database (let alone the specialist) when you short a stock. The "Them" of Wall street is run on many things....stupidity is not one of them.
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I just don't buy into it (PPT). Markets too large (these days esp)
PLUNGE PROTECTORS ARE ALL OVER MARKET MELTDOWN CLICK TO ENLARGE
August 16, 2007 -- THE Plunge Protection Team and the Federal Reserve saw it coming.
The "it" is the turmoil in the financial markets that we've been seeing ever since the failure of some subprime mortgage securities began scaring the bejeezus out of investors.
And in case you haven't noticed the Plunge Protectors - the real name of which is the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - are no longer secretive.
The Treasury is still ignoring The Post's long-standing requests for information on the PWG under the Freedom of Information Act.
And Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson hasn't gotten back to me on my recent request for an interview.
But the rest of the media is suddenly tracking this mysterious organization. Trouble is, while the press now seems to understand the PWG's importance, nobody is asking the big question - what is the group willing and able to do in a crisis? Now that it suits the group's interest, the PWG wants everyone to know it's on the job.
Let me quote from this past Monday's Wall Street Journal: "The market turmoil prompted the President's Working Group on Financial Markets . . . to trigger protocols established by Mr. Paulson shortly after he took office last year.
"They include a detailed list of who is going to call financial institutions, risk managers, traders and chief executives to keep tabs, how often they should call and the like."
The Journal went on to say that Paulson instructed a Treasury Department official named Emil Henry to craft six "meltdown" scenarios.
"One was the catch-all General Withdrawal from Risk Taking. Others included a liquidity crisis, stock market meltdown and oil shock," according to the Journal.
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Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Investor confidence in Germany dropped to the lowest in 15 years on concern that a U.S. recession will deepen the slowdown in Europe's largest economy.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations fell to minus 41.6 from minus 37.2 last month, the eighth straight decline. Economists expected a decline to minus 40, the median of 40 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. forecast that the U.S. will slip into recession this year for the first time since 2001 as the housing slump, which has driven up credit costs globally, curbs consumer spending. That may hurt European exporters already grappling with oil prices around $100 a barrel and an appreciating euro.
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guys, the writing is on the wall. please take notice. also, avoid ALL suckers rallies........they will fail.
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PPT is fantasy.
guys, this will be my last post on the Plunge Protection Team.
Juicing the Stock Market
The secret maneuverings of the Plunge Protection Team
By Mike Whitney
03/07/07 "ICH " -- -- The Working Group on Financial Markets, also know as the Plunge Protection Team, was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown of October 1987. Its members include the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Chairman of the SEC and the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Recently, the team has been on high-alert given the increased volatility of the markets and, what Hank Paulson calls, "the systemic risk posed by hedge funds and derivatives.”
According to John Crudele of the New York Post, the Plunge Protection Team’s (PPT) modus operandi was revealed by a former member of the Federal Reserve Board, Robert Heller. Heller said that disasters could be mitigated by “buying market averages in the futures market, thus stabilizing the market as a whole.” This appears to be the strategy that has been used.
Former-Clinton advisor, George Stephanopoulos, verified the existence of The Plunge Protection Team (as well as its methods) in an appearance on Good Morning America on Sept 17, 2000.
Stephanopoulos’ comments have never been officially denied. In fact, as Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the U.K. Telegraph notes, Secretary of the Treasury, Hank Paulson has called for the PPT to meet with greater frequency and set up “a command centre at the US Treasury that will track global markets and serve as an operations base in the next crisis. The top brass will meet every six weeks, combining the heads of Treasury, Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and key exchanges”.
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guys, traders on WS are calling this a TOXIC MARKET for a reason, beware.
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Your PPT is nothing but urban legend. It'd be Like trying to stop a Tsunami with a bucket crew....
But, you guys believe in insane 911 conspiracy theories to...
Yes, All the bad financial news and issues related to the US$ are very real.
I expect some LOD's (Low of days) to touch 10K on the DOW chart, but no need of a significant base to be rebuilt there or lower.
I could be wrong, but that is WAY more of a exact prediction than anyone else here is stating.
Lay out your belief of what's going to happen, not just jabber.
Fact is NOBODY can say where the charts go w/ 100% certainty.
But you can take the meat out of a trends move and spot change.
All forces for continued global expansion at high rate are still in place.
Housing is not near done correcting IMO.
Financials are the last place I'm going to "Look for a buying opportunity" on future selloffs.
Have cash and as much margin as yur comfortable with and tighter stops on anyplays right now IMO.
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Your PPT is nothing but urban legend. It'd be Like trying to stop a Tsunami with a bucket crew....
But, you guys believe in insane 911 conspiracy theories to...
Yes, All the bad financial news and issues related to the US$ are very real.
I expect some LOD's (Low of days) to touch 10K on the DOW chart, but no need of a significant base to be rebuilt there or lower.
I could be wrong, but that is WAY more of a exact prediction than anyone else here is stating.
Lay out your belief of what's going to happen, not just jabber.
Fact is NOBODY can say where the charts go w/ 100% certainty.
But you can take the meat out of a trends move and spot change.
All forces for continued global expansion at high rate are still in place.
Housing is not near done correcting IMO.
Financials are the last place I'm going to "Look for a buying opportunity" on future selloffs.
Have cash and as much margin as yur comfortable with and tighter stops on anyplays right now IMO.
i'll let the guys who visit this thread decide my worth. ;)
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i'll let the guys who visit this thread decide my worth. ;)
Here's what your worth Bud.... On one hand you point out a bunch of bad Financial/Econ news and data thats been clear as day for a LONG TIME... and say the sky will fall (Someday... ::))
Next you hedge from making any commitment by implying there are some covert operators slinking around in
tailored suits on Wall & Broad... ;D
So, your covered both ways, if it crashes bad you predicted it, and if it dont, the secret magicians that created the whole 9/11 illusion are at it again....
(An convienent excuse for Your faliure)
If you have a opinion of where the USA and Global economy is headed and why, state it.
Also remember, the global Econ balance is not a See-Saw where if the USA standard of living goes down, that the rest go up.... Quite the contrary,,,, more like a receding tide, all ships find a lower level.
Like this -
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/asian-markets-hit-hard-wall/story.aspx?guid=%7B8C0377C2%2DF564%2D468B%2D93E3%2D4790B0D241A7%7D
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(http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/i_got_the_flu.gif)
Uh-oh! I'm not sure if the US market just vomitted, ...or merely burped!
They say when the USA gets the sniffles, ...everyone else around the world, get's the FLU
Anyone looking at or listening to this mornings financials has got to be reaching for the aspirin about now.
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Hey Neon ---
A little upset there w/ that one huh? :'(
Not used to anyone asking you to back up your mouth?
Pretty common these days where credibility is of ZERO VALUE....
SHIT! Just when I saw the PPT w/ my very own eyes in the charts yesterday in them 3 big green 5min bars 20min prior to the close..............
Or was it some money freed up from the close of the bond markets?
Or just simply a technical buy indicator crossed that triggered a failed little flurry of buying.
YOU HAVE SHOWN NOTHING HERE TO LET ANYONE WITH THE SLIGHTEST UNDERSTANDING OF HOW THE MARKETS WORK, OR TRADING EXPERIENCE BE LED TO BELIEVE YOU KNOW ANTHING ABOUT THE SUBJECT AT ALL. IM TALKING TOTALLY OVER YOUR HEAD!!!!!!!!!
Your just another pretender here bud. Thats all.
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move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
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"dumb money" has no idea how bad this market is. they tend to learn the hard way....as always.
;)
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70% of our nations GDP is consumer consumption. since our nation no longer manufactures, we are dependent on a STRONG consumer. a weak dollar INCREASES inflation which lessens Americans buying power. the weak greenback may increase exports but never enough to offset the weak u.s. consumer.
record u.s deficits, a weak dollar, negative consumer savings, high inflation, record gas/oil prices (in none peak season) coupled with Americans no longer able to use their homes as a.t.m. machines spells disaster for a service economy such as ours.
the perfect storm is brewing........
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Gold drops from $926 - $884 overnight, ...and is taking all the other markets with it.
This is negatively affecting the Canadian dollar which has lost almost a full cent to the US.
(OK, that part I like). I've got a big USD cheque to cash. My last USD cheque, I simply put it in the US dollar account figuring I'd wait until the USD rose a bit or the Cdn dollar fell a bit before converting it to Cdn currency.
Let's see what the fed does. Will they step in before Jan 30th to stabilize the market?
If they do, ...will that be the spark that sets off the powder keg? Enquiring Minds want to know. :)
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Falling,,,, yes thats obvious this morning from the futures markets as I key....
But, WHen? How far?
What should they do?
Go flat? Buy Puts? Short the market? Get into a inverse short fund?
Buy Gold? Eat doughnuts? Hope & Pray? Call Dr Phil?
How will you know when its turned? What oversold signals/indicators do you use, chicken entrails?
Hey,,,, What about your PPT? Shouldn't this powerfull bunch of Put buying Commandos stop it? ;D
Got to go......... Pre Hrs NASDAQ Heatmap and futures are exciting this morn for sure.... ;)
Good luck Neon......
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Gold drops from $926 - $884 overnight, ...and is taking all the other markets with it.
This is negatively affecting the Canadian dollar which has lost almost a full cent to the US.
(OK, that part I like). I've got a big USD cheque to cash. My last USD cheque, I simply put it in the US dollar account figuring I'd wait until the USD rose a bit or the Cdn dollar fell a bit before converting it to Cdn currency.
Let's see what the fed does. Will they step in before Jan 30th to stabilize the market?
If they do, ...will that be the spark that sets off the powder keg? Enquiring Minds want to know. :)
THey (FED) would look stupid and desperate w/ a early cut, or it would have allready been done.
THey have enough probs w/ credibility.
It will likely start a small rally ( .5 cut) but nothing major will change in the forces at play.
A trend tends to continue....
I feel The US$ is now unjustly oversold, other currencies will react in time.
Currency reactions can be fast and brutal. Ive been right in the middle of one where 50% of its value was lost in weeks.
If I was rolling in Euros, I'd get out of some of them prior to the USA election for sure.
A false euphoria w/ a new (Dem esp) Pres will create some + market reaction IMO.
Jag -
why not Buy some property in the USA now w/ them C$'s?
Yes, it may (will) get even cheaper, but NOBODY can precisely pick a bottom.
The Gold was overextended, but I feel it will still run up ($1000 base ;)) as long as rates are steady or dropping.
Trading in Gold/silver is best left to pros in metals.
Buy it physically to wear or save w/ money that can be ignored for generations. It tends to blow-off in superspikes.
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i bet most here are saying "what is a 401k neuro" ?
how stupid of me.......to post this topic.
lol, little did you know you created the second most replied to thread in political; the number 1 thread started in Gossip before being move here :)
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Here's some real Prof market analysis,,, a little dated, but still valid.
Sourse is www.optionstrategist.com
Those looking for other legit market anylisis sources can PM me.
Leave the Vodoo and cut and paste from news to others.
You cant trade news..... THere is NO news that is not too late to matter.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
THE OPTION STRATEGIST
WEEKLY UPDATER 01/11/08
by McMillan Analysis Corp.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
Stock Market
The nine trading days from December 27th through January 8th encompassed one of the swiftest, deepest corrections in history. 2008 is off to a worse start than any other year before. Technical indicators that were modestly bullish or neutral turned decidedly negative. The aftermath is that the market is wounded but oversold. We don't envision any lasting rallies until a serious amount of basebuilding is done, particularly in stocks. However, such a swift decline makes the market oversold, and thus sharp, but short-lived rallies can spring up at any time -- as was the case in the last day and a half.
Let's start with $SPX. It fell through all of its support levels 1450, 1430, and 1400 -- before finding an intraday bottom at the 1380 level yesterday. This sets up the potential of a triple bottom on $SPX, as both March and August declines stopped at roughly the same level, although it is by no means certain that the current decline is over. Meanwhile, there is now resistance on $SPX at the 1430 level.
Equity-only put-call ratios worsened dramatically during this decline and have started to rise again -- thereby canceling out their late- December buy signals and returning to sell signals (Figures 2 & 3). These won't give buy signals until they roll over and start to head downward again. Currently, that doesn't look likely.
Breadth has been negative, but is now oversold. The heavily oversold nature of all these breadth measures certainly augurs for at least a short-term rally.
Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have been divergent as well. However, neither has really spiked up, thereby creating the type of exhaustion buy signal one would expect to see at the end of a sharp decline such as we've had in the past two weeks. Consequently, these are giving bearish readings as they are now in uptrends.
So, the $SPX chart, put-call ratios and volatility indices are negative, while breadth is leaning towards bullish.
Finally, in the course of preparing the Daily Volume Alerts newsletter daily, I look at a lot of stock charts. They are, in general, terrible. The damage done to most stocks will not be easily repaired. And the same can be said for the broad market indices as well.
So, even if these divergences are positive and we begin to eventually get some buy signals from the generally bearish indicators, this market will not just reverse and explode on the upside. It will take some base-building and retesting. We would turn bullish only after buy signals emerge and a base is built.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
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lol, little did you know you created the second most replied to thread in political; the number 1 thread started in Gossip before being move here :)
thanks, my objective was to take my market knowledge and hopefully help any Gbers invested in the stock market.
to this day, my call has been 100% dead-on. ;)
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thanks, my objective was to take my considerable market knowledge and hopefully help any Gbers invested in the stock market.
to this day, my call has been 100% dead-on. ;)
I might want to pick your brain on some stuff. I've never given a crap about the stock market but have recently decided I should do some learning and jump in. I don't really care if I lose the money but I don't like to lose by nature. I have an extra grand per month I can toss in and then in about 6 months I'll have about 4 to 6 grand extra per month I can toss in. Right now I'm just reading my ass off trying to get some basic understanding of things. How long have you been doing this? What is your advice to a noob? Any book recommendations?
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I might want to pick your brain on some stuff. I've never given a crap about the stock market but have recently decided I should do some learning and jump in. I don't really care if I lose the money but I don't like to lose by nature. I have an extra grand per month I can toss in and then in about 6 months I'll have about 4 to 6 grand extra per month I can toss in. Right now I'm just reading my ass off trying to get some basic understanding of things. How long have you been doing this? What is your advice to a noob? Any book recommendations?
Your doing the right thing, by reading your ass off. Start off with a basic book, that outlines the whole market in general of stocks. Main thing to remember is your competing against other people, try to learn about them and they, of the market to play it not against it, the market and the people that make up the market are the 'house'
Then get John J. Murphy "Visual Investor" $60 and "Technical Analysis" $85. Try to learn some basics on psychology of the stock market.
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HAHAHAHAHAH Poor lil CRAB......He fights so hard for attention. He joins the thread by insulting NT and talking like we should listen to him over someone like NT whos already proven himself..... ;D
Trabby is just changing his story as the pages go along here...at first he was against all that was said but now hes saying "Duh, i knew that but what else you got"!!!
Trab, youre the little booger eater around here....COMEDY GOLD!!!
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ok guys here's the deal. the market is currently oversold on a short term basis and nearing a technical support area. any "decent" news will cause this market to move higher. i expect that soon. ;)
my long term outlook is still lower.
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ok guys here's the deal. the market is currently oversold on a short term basis and nearing a technical support area. any "decent" news will cause this market to move higher. i expect that soon. ;)
my long term outlook is still lower.
COOL. Another bandaid for a Gaping Hemmorage... ;D
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I've never given a crap about the stock market but have recently decided I should do some learning and jump in. I don't really care if I lose the money but I don't like to lose by nature. I have an extra grand per month I can toss in...........
This is not a good way to think about it. Perhaps the absolute worst thing that could happen is you get lucky and quickly make a large win or two.......... I'm not joking.
To his credit mr Nemo's comment in another thread about someone "Dabbling" in the market was along the lines of them enjoying gettin' their face ripped off.
He's absolutely correct there.
But, The little guy has advantages the large traders holding giant postions that can not be instantly liquidated (Or even take days to bail out of) dont.
Here's a couple gems -
1.You are not trading stocks as much as - you are trading people....
2. Not trading is often more important than trading.
3.Price and volume are your primary focus. Dont get caught up in several complex indicators.
Ya just end up w/ a mind numbing screen full of spaghetti.
Most books on trading/market are just plain BAD. But there are some good sources.
Good Luck, and remember in the coming weeks - That cheap Stocks can allways get cheaper (Homes too ;))
We'll see if Hellicopter Bennie can hold his breath till the 30th......... It must suck to be him right now.
Anyway just curious how many PPL think that the numbers here are cooked as could be other related stats.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumer-prices-rise-03-december/story.aspx?guid=%7B9CCA8A4F%2D8017%2D448D%2DA8BB%2D2BF56DF8D2BB%7D
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Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Growing conviction that the U.S. is in a recession sent stocks plunging in their worst three-day decline since 2002.
The S&P 500 lost 39.94, or 2.9 percent, to 1,333.26 and is down 9.2 percent this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 306.95, or 2.5 percent, to 12,159.21. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 47.69, or 2 percent, to 2,346.9. More than seven stocks fell for every one that rose on the NYSE.
``The problems seem to be intensifying,'' said John Carey, who helps oversee about $13 billion at Pioneer Investment Management in Boston.
Approaching 'Bear' Market
Benchmark indexes are approaching so-called bear markets, or declines of at least 20 percent from highs. The S&P 500 and Dow average have both lost more than 14 percent from their Oct. 9 records, while the Nasdaq composite has tumbled 18 percent from an almost seven-year high on Oct. 31.
Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted more than forecast in January, adding to evidence factories are cutting production as the economy slows. Builders broke ground on the fewest houses since 1991 in December, making last year's decline in homebuilding the worst in almost three decades.
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S&P slumps 3%, Dow sheds 2.5% and Nasdaq's off 2% in bloodletting
U.S. stocks have their worst day in 2008, with the Dow industrials hitting 10-month lows, after Federal Reserve
Chairman Ben Bernanke warns that an economic slowdown is taking hold, with weak data out to back it up.
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Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration is close to completing an economic-stimulus proposal that economists say may have a modest effect on boosting the economy and averting a recession.
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this will have zero effect on the U.S. recession. the Gov. wants to give the public a few hundred bucks hoping they go to Home Depot and spend it.
too little...........too late.
NT
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Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration is close to completing an economic-stimulus proposal that economists say may have a modest effect on boosting the economy and averting a recession.
this will have zero effect on the U.S. recession. the Gov. wants to give the public a few hundred bucks hoping they go to Home Depot and spend it.
too little...........too late. :-\
``It's getting money to people who are likely to spend it,'' Leonard Burman, director of the Washington-based Tax Policy Center, said of the Bush plan. ``It might do a little good for the economy.''
handing out more borrowed money (from china) will only fuel inflation. couple that with another interest rate cut coming from the Fed. and inflationary pressures will soar.
in all my years working the market, i've never seen a scenario quite like the one were in right now. we are setting ourselves up for stagflation (high inflation coupled with a recession)
guys, please be very careful.
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This is not a good way to think about it. Perhaps the absolute worst thing that could happen is you get lucky and quickly make a large win or two.......... I'm not joking.
To his credit mr Nemo's comment in another thread about someone "Dabbling" in the market was along the lines of them enjoying gettin' their face ripped off.
He's absolutely correct there.
But, The little guy has advantages the large traders holding giant postions that can not be instantly liquidated (Or even take days to bail out of) dont.
Here's a couple gems -
1.You are not trading stocks as much as - you are trading people....
2. Not trading is often more important than trading.
3.Price and volume are your primary focus. Dont get caught up in several complex indicators.
Ya just end up w/ a mind numbing screen full of spaghetti.
Most books on trading/market are just plain BAD. But there are some good sources.
Good Luck, and remember in the coming weeks - That cheap Stocks can allways get cheaper (Homes too ;))
We'll see if Hellicopter Bennie can hold his breath till the 30th......... It must suck to be him right now.
Anyway just curious how many PPL think that the numbers here are cooked as could be other related stats.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/consumer-prices-rise-03-december/story.aspx?guid=%7B9CCA8A4F%2D8017%2D448D%2DA8BB%2D2BF56DF8D2BB%7D
Actually I don't have anyway of thinking about it right now because I don't know jack which is why I want to learn as much as I can at this stage. I only mean to say I'm not going to be bent out of shape if I screw up, but I'm not one of the dabbling types. I usually spend a lot of time on the things that interest me.
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A long-time bull throws in the towel
Dan Sullivan's model stock portfolio is now 100% in cash
Jan. 17, 2008
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Stock market bulls lost an important ally on Wednesday: Dan Sullivan is now convinced that we are in a major bear market.
Sullivan is editor of two newsletters, The Chartist and The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter. Sullivan has been publishing the first of these since the late 1960s, nearly 40 years ago. Very few others have been continuously editing an advisory newsletter for any where close to that long a period.
Sullivan, therefore, has seen lots of different kinds of market environments, which is why we should place more than the usual weight on what his intuition tells him. And right now, as he said in an interview Thursday afternoon, his "gut feeling" is that we're in a bear market that we will need to let "run its course."
That's Sullivan's way of saying that the decline he now expects is not likely to be a small one, either in terms of duration or magnitude of losses.
As recently as the publication date of the last issue of Sullivan's newsletter, which was in early January, he was still bullish on the stock market.
guys, where was this experts "gut feelings" in Nov.? 40 yrs experience my ass ! it's easy to call bad news now. i called it when the markets were at all time highs. no one was willing to do that.
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The only thing throwing money out the helicopter is going to do at theis point is - Cheapen the money.
Don't know about anyone else, but I seen prices going up more than their little reports imply.
Think they are cooked a little?
I think this is going to be quite bad, and a lot of PPL that are used to living way beyond their means are going to learn the very hard way. Ive been seeing forclosures for some luxury homes/lots in my area now for awhile.
I really think that it has a long way to run in housing still. LMAO at the jokers that were calling a bottom in it months ago.
I hope and dont think the DOW bases long at 10K, but nobody knows..... Nobody.
That great (Long side) "Buying opportunity" could be after years of wide range fluctuations in the 10-12 range.
Traders that thrive on volatility will not care, in fact - They like that.
The only real interpertation is from what is show in PPL's behavior in buying/selling in the charts patterns of volume and price behavior. Everything else is conjecture.
Also remember, there are allways stocks that run counter to the market daily in both directions.
But generally dont fight the trend for long....
The level of ignorance level is astounding in the subject; Just the way the guys with big money and power like it. But, you could spoon feed the masses and give them all a Hefty sack of Benjimens and endgame it'd all be the same....
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I just invested my first 2000.00 in the market!!!!!!
On investopedia :D
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guys, where was this experts "gut feelings" in Nov.? 40 yrs experience my ass ! it's easy to call bad news now. i called it when the markets were at all time highs. no one was willing to do that.
Yeah, you know how it works. They need to feed the machine, and investor sentiment needs to remain high to unload. Hell I went to eat Chinese food last night and they had on that crap show Fast Money, and they were still talking about BUYS, and HOLDS, and staying with their picks... :o the lady across from me was taking the advice. :-X
Anyways like Neuro said long ago, Bear Market. Investor sentiment has now been impacted, since 1 month ago Fortun 500 ran some cover stories of a possible recession, and now more News Stations follow the latest news up.
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I don't know anything about the stock market..so my 401k is one of those based on your retirement year....it is adjusted for lower risk as you get older. I never even look at my account because I don't know what I'm looking at...lol :-[
Anyway after reading this thread I started looking . I am in my early 30's and have only been in the plan a few years so I don't have a fortune in there obviously...but what I do have is going down every time I look at it.I suppose that's normal and it ill rise and fall over the years..at least that's what they tell me.
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I don't know anything about the stock market..so my 401k is one of those based on your retirement year....it is adjusted for lower risk as you get older. I never even look at my account because I don't know what I'm looking at...lol :-[
Anyway after reading this thread I started looking . I am in my early 30's and have only been in the plan a few years so I don't have a fortune in there obviously...but what I do have is going down every time I look at it.I suppose that's normal and it ill rise and fall over the years..at least that's what they tell me.
THe whole point Neuro is trying to make is that its possible to read the market and pull out for the drops.
It is true, but the average person will do the exact opposite in the attempt. THey will sell at the bottom in utter fear and disgust and buy at the top during the heady euphoria stage when everyone and their cousins is talkin' stock market, or Gold or what ever the current get rich quick instrument is.
Schwagers (sp?) one market wizards book has a investor profiled that trades mainly mutual funds and his methods...
I forget his name. Jacks books are all good, I'd recommend at least a casual stroll thru all of them.
I'm afraid that reacting right now and sellin may not be the best move.
Learn to read candlestick charts. Watch them develop in real-time and reverse and you'll start to get the picture after a time.
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Anyway after reading this thread I started looking . I am in my early 30's and have only been in the plan a few years so I don't have a fortune in there obviously...but what I do have is going down every time I look at it.I suppose that's normal and it ill rise and fall over the years..at least that's what they tell me.
todays "program trading" can erase a years worth of gains...... in days. ( as we just saw )
think of all the people who invested in tech stocks during the euphoria in 2000. 8 yrs later still 60% down from the high.
remember, this is not your mom and dad's stock market. you must be informed.... because your stockbroker is not
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THE OPTION STRATEGIST
WEEKLY UPDATER 01/18/08
by McMillan Analysis Corp.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts: www.optionstrategist.com
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
Stock Market
Even for those of us who have been bearish, the nastiness of this bear is a little startling. I used to think Arthur Burns was the most bearish Fed Chairman ever (every time he spoke in 1973-1974, the market went down), but Ben Bernanke has nearly ascended that dubious throne.
A week ago, $SPX bounced off an intraday low at 1380 and actually rallies 50 points (does anyone even remember?), but this week that level was tested again -- and broken, as $SPX traded down to 1365 on Wednesday. This was an important level, because it was roughly equal to the March and August lows. Bulls were hoping that a triple bottom could form on the chart. However, as we noted in our Daily Volume Alerts report: "Given the fact that this market is technically damaged, and that many other indices (such as the Russell 2000) have already exceeded previous lows, we would not bank on the fact that 1365 will provide any sort of permanent support." It didn't provide support -- not even for a day -- as $SPX plunged through that support, trading all the way down to 1330 today. This breakdown in $SPX matches many, many stock charts that we have seen over the past few weeks. As I've been saying, this is the worst group of stock charts that I can ever remember seeing. And now $SPX belongs in that group as well. When a chart shows this type of breakdown below multiple support levels (1365), it can generally be sold on rallies back towards that level, which now represents resistance.
Equity-only put-call ratios have blasted to the upside this week, as massive put buying is finally taking place. They are reaching the higher regions of their respective charts, meaning they are "oversold." However, they will not give buy signals until they roll over and begin to head downward. That doesn't seem likely to happen quickly.
Market breadth (advances minus declines) gave a sell signal on December 27th and hasn't given a buy signal yet. It is also extremely oversold, which means that a sharp, but short-lived rally is possible at any time. However, a true buy signal would take several days of positive breadth to construct.
The last technical indicator that we routinely follow is volatility. $VIX had only been edging upward, even though the market was taking a beating. That was true even up through Tuesday of this week. $VIX usually makes a spike peak when the market collapses, but that wasn't happening. Yes, the market was collapsing, but $VIX was only in a slow uptrend. Some attributed the lack of upward movement in $VIX to hedging strategies, but in reality it was most likely due to the fact that people were still complacently bullish. However, in the last two days, things have changed greatly. $VIX finally exploded, with today's breakdown below that triple support level. $VIX exploded four points to the upside (to 28) and $VXO five points (to 32).
In summary, the overall trend is bearish. This is at least as nasty a market as July 2002 was, and even though a bottom was eventually recorded that month, its was retested in October 2002, and again in March, 2003. The point is that, with this much damage having been done, this market is not going to just reverse and start a new bull phase. Yes, there could be a powerful oversold rally, but it won't last.
Note: Please CLICK HERE to view this week's charts:
VISIT HERE to get the commentary plus recommendations.
Hit Larry's website for charts for a visual understanding of what just happend to all your money...
And, the next levels down....
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currently the S&P 500 (the real market) is sitting near the April-May 06 level. we gave up almost 2 yrs in gains since the peak.
no one should ever give up their gains to Wall Street.
education is the key.
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This is funny as hell, how all of a sudden Bush is on top of the recession and going to solve middle east peace!!! ;D ;D
These idiots dont realize most americans would hold their money now if they got a tax credit or something....at most theyd make a couple credit card payments. So NT is right....my first thought when they said theyd try to give 3-800 dollars to americans was..WHERE THE HELL DID THIS MONEY COME FROM!!! Yes borrrowed once again to raise inflation >:(
Dumbasses cant see the forest cuz the trees in the way.
My biggest worry is i dont see a way out of this for even the next administration to cope...We got a funk coming and probably a mutiny someday regarding the seperation of the rich and poor.
The only way to free up consumer money is to make housing affordable (Meaning huge price correction) Make healthcare available (80% of all bancruptcys are medical related)
And lower the goddamn fuel prices!!! >:(
The other way to get us out is to increase the middleincome level to 100k period..............And that aint gonna happen, so the first one is more realistic.
BTW, Trab......good to see you in the ballgame. ;)
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Veeery bad day in Europe.
All gains made throughout the past year gone in less than 3 hours.
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Stocks Plummet in Germany, Hong Kong and India in Global Rout
By Sarah Thompson
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks from Germany, Hong Kong and India to Brazil tumbled, and U.S. futures posted their steepest drop since 2001 on mounting speculation the world economy is slowing and company defaults will rise.
``It's the worst I've ever seen,'' said Johan Stein, who helps manage the equivalent of about $14 billion at Nordea Asset Management in Stockholm. ``The financial system is in terrible shape, and no one knows where this will end.''
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``This is a stock-market crisis,'' said Alberto Roldan, head of research at Inverseguros SVB in Madrid. ``Investors believe that neither a government package nor a huge rate cut is going to help evade a recession in the U.S.''
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``This is a stock-market crisis,'' said Alberto Roldan, head of research at Inverseguros SVB in Madrid. ``Investors believe that neither a government package nor a huge rate cut is going to help evade a recession in the U.S.''
Old news doggy
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i had no idea benz. ::)
Im not saying you didnt knew, i was told the same by some citi guys back in september 2007. Would you buy anything right now? Someone very very close to me is buying a sh1tload these days
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``This is a stock-market crisis,'' said Alberto Roldan, head of research at Inverseguros SVB in Madrid. ``Investors believe that neither a government package nor a huge rate cut is going to help evade a recession in the U.S.''
Yeah, that's the same company that told me that Endesa and Telefonica were goint to be over 100 Euros in less than 2 years.
I give LITTLE credibility to Interseguros SVB.
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if you plan on adding to this thread benz.......you need bring more than that.
Why are you melting? Im not hating on you.
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blood spills on "the street" tomorrow.
Care to elaborate? How many points do you predict it's going down?
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Care to elaborate? How many points do you predict it's going down?
US Dow futures are down 450 for tomorrow's open.
global market selloff today.
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US Dow futures are down 450 for tomorrow's open.
global market selloff today.
Which means? 600-700 points (I bet my father that it'd go down that much).
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Which means? 600-700 points (I bet my father that it'd go down that much).
it's difficult to say how low we go on tuesday. my prediction has been Dow 10,000 for some time now.
but yes, the US stock futures are down 450 points as i type this.
no real surprise.
NT
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in all my years working the market, i've never seen a scenario quite like the one were in right now. we are setting ourselves up for stagflation (high inflation coupled with a recession)
guys, please be very careful.
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record u.s deficits, a weak dollar, negative consumer savings, high inflation, record gas/oil prices (in none peak season) coupled with Americans no longer able to use their homes as a.t.m. machines spells disaster for a service economy such as ours.
the perfect storm is brewing........
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LONDON (MarketWatch) -- If futures contracts traded on a day when U.S. stocks weren't even due to open are anything near accurate, then markets will be in for a major decline on Tuesday, with concerns about bond insurers and the health of financial institutions dragging markets lower.
Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 522 points lower to 11,584 as of 11:30 a.m. Eastern.
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PARIS — Global stock markets plunged on Monday as fears spread that the turmoil in United States mortgage markets is spreading. Indexes in Europe fell as much as 7 percent after a huge sell-off in Asia.
“There’s something approaching panic in the market,” Holger Schmieding, the chief European economist at Bank of America in London, said by telephone.
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ok guys here's the deal, the market hit a key "support level' late in the day and buyers moved in and the market bounced. (see above)
earning will decide where we take this market going forward. over the short term i expect a move to the upside before we go lower again. the DOW 12,000 area is my next target..... on the downside.
i would not be surprized to see us near DOW 10,000 by the end of the year. i could be wrong, but my experience says otherwise.
when the market is ready to buy (long term), i'll be happy to point out when a safe entry point is approaching. now is not that time.
no advise........just opinion.
NT
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With U.S. markets closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, it will be another day to see how the bad news sweeping westward will affect Wall Street. But today, in Canada, the news was not good. The Toronto stock market was down more than 600 points.
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LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Shares in London tumbled Monday in their worst session since the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001 as a sharp downturn in mining and banking shares pointed to growing investor fears about a slowdown in global economic growth and a U.S. recession.
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Nerotoxin, I would like your opinion on some of comments mentioned in this video and do you think the war is a major drag/minor darg and no drag at all on the American economy?
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Fear routs world stocks; French, German indexes fall 7%
By Jeffrey Stinson, USA TODAY
LONDON — Stock markets across Europe and Asia plunged Monday on fears that President Bush's emergency economic stimulus plan won't ward off recession in the USA.
At one point during the day, stock indexes in London, Germany and France faced their biggest drops since the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks on the World Trade Center in New York.
Monday's sell-off, which started in Asia and spread to Europe, followed the worst week for U.S. stock markets in five years, as investors registered their forecast for the world's biggest economy.
U.S. financial markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, but U.S. stock index futures were down sharply, suggesting investors don't have much hope of Wall Street leading a rebound when it returns to business Tuesday.
"I think people were underwhelmed by the (U.S. stimulus) package," said Tim Bond, head of asset allocations globally for Barclays Capital in London.
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Nerotoxin, I would like your opinion on some of comments mentioned in this video and do you think the war is a major drag/minor darg and no drag at all on the American economy?
yes, the US Government borrow's 2 Billion dollars every 10 HOURS from China to finance wars, interest on debt etc. (for prospective, 1 billion seconds ago was 1959) the more money our nation borrows, the weaker the dollar becomes. the weaker the dollar........the more inflation, the more inflation the higher we pay for gas, food etc. when you couple that with the housing bust, the american consumer who accounts for 3/4 of our nations GDP is no longer able to re-finance their homes to take out money to spend. american consumer's savings rate is BELOW 0.00, the consumer is TAPPED OUT. recession + inflation = stagflation. nothing is worse than stagflation for an economy. IMO, Bush started this effect the minute he invaded Iraq.
the perfect storm is here............
NT
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i owned this chump so bad he may never show his face in this thread again. he is clearly clueless as to how markets work.
please pay NO ATTENTION to posts of this nature, as they will hurt your bank account.
NT
No one with even half a brain listens to what that fat fucking slob Alex has to say. He's a clueless faggoty walrus.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-recession-fears-spark-deep/story.aspx?guid=%7BFA34EC4F%2DFFF6%2D4BEE%2DAF28%2DE41F832BF4AC%7D
I think It'll go Global. (Well, "Think" .... "Is" is a better word)
The other central banks will have to bring their money more in line w/ the US$ too IMO.
Note -This is not a Ra Ra USA speech... ;D
Futures can turn on a dime, but I doubt that for tomorrows open.
I'm gonna watch like a vulture pre Hrs to the bell.
Sometime soon theres gonna be a red trading screen avalanche that dwarfs that May 11th.
When to buy is the trick..... 10 years from now.... ;D
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You beat me to that post..... WTF's wrong with taht? Cant accept that they will bleed even worse from this?
This is not just a USA thing.
I only dissagree on your 10K base for very long duration.
But issues w/ this loan reinsurance could change that.
I hope the DOW dont stay 10k or < for long for the sake of many many PPL.
But, Moving to Denmark or Holland is not going to increase your standard of living.
Go ahead, convert all your US$ to Euros right now, great timing.......
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Neoro -
If your short the market from 14K WTF are you doing posting on Get big at 5min before the stock markets opening bell?
esp on a morning when the futures were way down and the European and Asian markets were in the dump?
Because your a phony, tahts why....
If your saying that the US financial problem is not going to affect the European and Asian markets your
also a fraud. They will get SLAMMED. India 11%.
Tell it like it is, this is mainly a political rant.
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once you begin to understand technical analysis, charting and pattern recognition, i'd be happy to help you take your first baby steps getting into the market safely. i will always try to keep things on laymans terms.... as not to overwhelm you with confusing "floor talk".
NT
thanks!
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I think It'll go Global. (Well, "Think" .... "Is" is a better word)
The other central banks will have to bring their money more in line w/ the US$ too IMO.
Ya no shit sherlock, Intramarket MARKETS.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEpY1Oh5Z6Vs&refer=home
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEpY1Oh5Z6Vs&refer=home
Neon, waht exacty dont you get here?
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Hahahah this is gonna be a bloody mess.... ;D
Trab, im sure everyone knows its all inter-related. Kinda fun watching NT's posts come back to haunt us!! ;)
I predict a dow below 9000this year. Even tho the dow is not important to me, now.
Bush might as well go HUNTING with Cheney... :o
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Hahahah this is gonna be a bloody mess.... ;D
Trab, im sure everyone knows its all inter-related. Kinda fun watching NT's posts come back to haunt us!! ;)
I predict a dow below 9000this year. Even tho the dow is not important to me, now.
Bush might as well go HUNTING with Cheney... :o
I hope it don't base 9-10 for the damage it will do to so many and the fallout.
Bush and Bernankie should BOTH go hunting w/ Cheney...
Tomorrow is gonna be a ride.
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Well the TSX just dropped 600 points today. AKA $90 Billion dollars sucked out in the blink of an eye! :'(
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I hope it don't base 9-10 for the damage it will do to so many and the fallout.
Bush and Bernankie should BOTH go hunting w/ Cheney...
Tomorrow is gonna be a ride.
Whats funny is this is gonna get bernanke thrown under the bus!!! Their gonna need a fall guy for the shit thats gonna happen and this poor guy is gonna be it!! ;D
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Whats funny is this is gonna get bernanke thrown under the bus!!! Their gonna need a fall guy for the shit thats gonna happen and this poor guy is gonna be it!! ;D
He should be thrown under the bus. Even though its not all his fault he is culpable.
Raised int% TOO long, way out of touch w/ mainstreet.
Other ways to cool off housing could of been used, and still should.
Like shoot all the shoe salesmen loan criminals.
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Whats funny is this is gonna get bernanke thrown under the bus!!! Their gonna need a fall guy for the shit thats gonna happen and this poor guy is gonna be it!! ;D
Ron PAul tried to warn Bernanke but he just wouldn't listen...
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Well hes just following "Corporate" orders!! :o The one world economy must take place...
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well, looks like it's happening now - world mkts are going seriously bear, i mean like grizly-polar kinda breed
with the monoline insurers starting to write off books the magnitude of contagion of sub-prime crisis is biginning to hit home
interesting times...
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yeah, well - long position opportunities opening up;)
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- It's much too soon for an official judgment on whether the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession, but early indications show that a recession may have already begun.
Of the five monthly economic indicators used to judge whether the U.S. economy has fallen into a recession, three are declining and one other is flattening out. Three of the five numbers peaked in September. Only one has grown with any vigor over the past few months, but it's starting to look weaker.
Calling a recession is as much art as science.
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U.S. Stock Futures Tumble, Point to Biggest Drop Since 2000
Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures tumbled on concern the global economic slowdown is worsening, indicating that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index may drop the most since April 2000 when the market opens.
``Investors are panicking,'' said Chirin Gill, who helps manage the equivalent of $3 billion at Daiwa SB Investments in London. ``All of the economic data coming out of the U.S. points to a severe weakening.''
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22764080/
The Photo in the link sums it up. But Jesus, Vishnu,Buddha don't seem to intervene in the markets....
They got other hobbies....
All we got is Benny.... ::)
We'll see if Benny lasts till the Fed meeting next week w/ out a emergency rate cut.
It will make him look like a fool if he does (allthough everyone allready thinks that)
but I'd bet on a lot of pain before then. Wont matter anyway,
The live charts today are going to be a thrill TBH.
I'm sick Huh?.
Pristines Stock Play of the Week this morning is the Q's breakdown.
ANd, they make a note - THIS IS NOT A PLAY, for example only! ;D
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HUGE interest rate cut in response to a crumbling stock market.
This is interesting as it is no surprise to those that have been following this for the past 6 months.
Interesting how our debt based over leveraged economy cannot even function on 5.25% interest rate. Well we are trying out 3.5% now. How soon till it is back down to 1.0% ??
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.75, talk about the medicine being deadlier than the disease.
Geesh
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.75, talk about the medicine being deadlier than the disease.
Geesh
for some reason Yahoo is reporting the Dow Jones Average at 3,900 ????????????????????
DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE (DJI:^DJI)
Index Value: 3,944.84
Trade Time: 10:02AM ET
Change: 98.48 (2.44%)
Prev Close: 12,099.30
Open: 12,092.72
Day's Range: 3902.27 - 4041.90
52wk Range: 11,926.80 - 14,280.00
New! Try our new Charts in Beta
1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y 5y max
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DOW opened down by 2.85%, NASDAQ down by 3%
looks like serious bear...bloody grizly-polar breed...
interesting what it will be like by the closing and how long it will last
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DOW opened down by 2.85%, NASDAQ down by 3%
looks like serious bear...bloody grizly-polar breed...
interesting what it will be like by the closing and how long it will last
yahoo now has the Dow index at 53.18 ?????
What is going on? Did someone hack the site?
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hahah Lets see how much money the plunge protection team...aka (administration) wants to throw at this and for how long!! ;D
Stormshadow is right...the country cant even operate on 5.25% ......they will get the point that our pyramid scheme is collapsing....
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hahah Lets see how much money the plunge protection team...aka (administration) wants to throw at this and for how long!! ;D
Stormshadow is right...the country cant even operate on 5.25% ......they will get the point that our pyramid scheme is collapsing....
S & P broke the support trendline with ease but it's being oversold, a snapback is immenent soon, but that means very little when after the snap it has only one place and that is....down.
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S & P broke the support trendline with ease but it's being oversold, a snapback is immenent soon, but that means very little when after the snap it has only one place and that is....down.
Yeah...this shit is like clockwork. Who likes rollercoasters.. The market is like trying to save a drowning man who wont grab the lifevest....matter of time. 8)
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Relax, Relax. Bush and Benny are in control, what could go wrong?...
Steady hands on the tiller there boys...
I'm lookin forward to my Uncle Sam McDebit card from DC for a happy meal or two...
I'll buy a couple them new $20 Double cheeseburgers... :P
Or better yet they should give away shares of Hanks old GS. :)
Its really not that bad when you think about it. Wealthy PPL with good credit can scoop up all the forclosed homes taht PPL who lost/loosing them cant get a loan for now...
Then we can start all over again.. 8)
Ya see, everything works out....
MSN wouldnt print it if it wasnt true. See - Its a GOOD THING.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080122markets.aspx
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Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said the Federal Reserve's emergency cut in borrowing costs today is a ``sad testament'' to the state of the U.S. economy.
The central bank cut the target overnight lending rate to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent after stock markets tumbled from Hong Kong to Paris amid increasing signs of a U.S. recession. Policy makers weren't scheduled to gather until next week. Gross expects the rate to fall as low as 2.50 percent.
``It's a sad testament to think the Fed has to cut interest rates eight days in front of a meeting to salvage the equity markets,'' said Gross, the founder and chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``The U.S. economy is in a rather sad state of affairs in that it depends on housing and stock prices to keep going.''
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Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said the Federal Reserve's emergency cut in borrowing costs today is a ``sad testament'' to the state of the U.S. economy.
The central bank cut the target overnight lending rate to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent after stock markets tumbled from Hong Kong to Paris amid increasing signs of a U.S. recession. Policy makers weren't scheduled to gather until next week. Gross expects the rate to fall as low as 2.50 percent.
``It's a sad testament to think the Fed has to cut interest rates eight days in front of a meeting to salvage the equity markets,'' said Gross, the founder and chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``The U.S. economy is in a rather sad state of affairs in that it depends on housing and stock prices to keep going.''
Other economists on the radio said the same thing. The cut is really bad news.
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Other economists on the radio said the same thing. The cut is really bad news.
the cut was designed to help Wall Street investors. by the Fed lowering interest rates below yearly inflation, it forces big investment firms back into the market......hoping to keep ahead of inflationary pressures.
unfortunately, rate cutting will only continue to increase inflation that's out of control already.
remember the term stagflation. it's coming.........
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Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since April 2002, after forecasts of slowing sales by Apple Inc. and Motorola Inc. added to concern the economy is falling into a recession.
Apple tumbled the most in more than five years on the Nasdaq Stock Market after saying sales growth will fall to 29 percent this quarter from 35 percent in the previous three months. Motorola, the largest U.S. maker of mobile phones, posted its biggest drop since October 2002 on a forecast for an unexpected loss. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-biggest copper miner, declined to the lowest since August after earnings trailed analysts' estimates.
``I would say that we're already in a recession,'' Jack Rivkin, who oversees $126 billion in New York as chief investment officer at guy Berman, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Odds are earnings are going to be down for 2008.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which is off to its worst- ever start to a year, slid 11.31, or 0.9 percent, to 1,299.19 at 11:25 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 58.77, or 0.5 percent, to 11,912.42
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Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since April 2002, after forecasts of slowing sales by Apple Inc. and Motorola Inc. added to concern the economy is falling into a recession.
Apple tumbled the most in more than five years on the Nasdaq Stock Market after saying sales growth will fall to 29 percent this quarter from 35 percent in the previous three months. Motorola, the largest U.S. maker of mobile phones, posted its biggest drop since October 2002 on a forecast for an unexpected loss. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-biggest copper miner, declined to the lowest since August after earnings trailed analysts' estimates.
``I would say that we're already in a recession,'' Jack Rivkin, who oversees $126 billion in New York as chief investment officer at guy Berman, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Odds are earnings are going to be down for 2008.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index, which is off to its worst- ever start to a year, slid 11.31, or 0.9 percent, to 1,299.19 at 11:25 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 58.77, or 0.5 percent, to 11,912.42
Your thoughts on the rebound?
Are we propped back up because everyone knows that there will be no end in sight to cheap money?
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Your thoughts on the rebound?
Are we propped back up because everyone knows that there will be no end in sight to cheap money?
;D
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Your thoughts on the rebound?
Are we propped back up because everyone knows that there will be no end in sight to cheap money?
just my 2 cents. It was inertia, the huge slash, helped the big boys out by offering a incentive to buy.
Can't believe really that, the snap back was soooo sooon'
Oh well what goes up must come down. Bank have still not written off Bond losses.
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Your thoughts on the rebound?
Are we propped back up because everyone knows that there will be no end in sight to cheap money?
yesterdays late afternoon action is called a short squeeze.the market was at technical support and with so many big firms shorting this market since 14,000, at some point they begin to take profits moving the market higher. remember, markets do not go straight down, we may form a temporary base and move higher in the short term from here. also, many big traders expect the Fed to cut rates again in a few days. this will boost the bank stocks which lead the market.
keep in mind, a one day, last hour rally is not a trend. if the trend begins to turn, i'll let you guys know.
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the cut was designed to help Wall Street investors. by the Fed lowering interest rates below yearly inflation, it forces big investment firms back into the market......hoping to keep ahead of inflationary pressures.
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve, confronted by deepening panic in global financial markets about a possible recession in the United States, struck back on Tuesday morning with the biggest one-day reduction of interest rates on record and at least temporarily stopped a vertigo-inducing plunge in stock prices.
The Fed’s move was prompted in part by turmoil in global markets on Monday, a holiday in the United States. The Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., watching the same market turmoil, was anxious enough that he called White House Chief of Staff Joshua B. Bolten, who ultimately put President Bush on the line.
In a statement accompanying the Fed’s decision, which was announced about an hour before the stock market opened for trading, officials hinted that they might reduce rates yet again at their scheduled meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.
guys as i've stated before, Henry Paulson leads the PPT (plunge protection team) and HE was responsible for the emergency rate cut on Tuesday.(not the Fed chairman) keep in mind, when the Fed/PPT lowers rates to the point that fixed investments cannot keep up with inflation.........trader s often turn back to the market no matter how bad it is.
with the market on technical support and interest rates being lowered......i expect more UPSIDE to this market over the short term.
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Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- New York regulators are pushing the biggest U.S. financial institutions to rescue bond insurers, led by MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., and avert credit- rating downgrades that may further disrupt financial markets.
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the combination of bush's stimulus program coupled with another rate cut should give the market a decent rally very soon.
it won't do anything for the recession.....but W.S. likes it ! ::)
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the combination of bush's stimulus program coupled with another rate cut should give the market a decent rally very soon.
it won't do anything for the recession.....but W.S. likes it ! ::)
also, combine the above with the Dow recently losing 2,000 points.
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Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell more than forecast in December, capping the biggest annual slump in 25 years and the first decline in prices since the Great Depression.
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the combination of bush's stimulus program coupled with another rate cut should give the market a decent rally very soon.
any rally based off interest rate cuts will ultimately fail. do not get sucked in........the worst is not over.
earning is the lifeblood of the market. more interest rate cuts or Bush handing out 600.00 checks will not "stimulate" this economy.
any rally will be sold off by the big firms.
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any rally based off interest rate cuts will ultimately fail. do not get sucked in........the worst is not over.
earning is the lifeblood of the market. more interest rate cuts or Bush handing out 600.00 checks will not "stimulate" this economy.
any rally will be sold off by the big firms.
I think the deadcat bounce already sucked in the public investment, wall street is having a nice ride with this.
Bond insurers are hanging tight claiming everything is honky dorry, what's your opinion on what's to come in the finanacial sector soon?
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I think the deadcat bounce already sucked in the public investment, wall street is having a nice ride with this.
Bond insurers are hanging tight claiming everything is honky dorry, what's your opinion on what's to come in the finanacial sector soon?
Housekeepers and windowwashers didnot make them big green bars and volume spike on reversals.
Professional buying initiates moves - armatures finish them ;D stuck in bull or bear traps.
The next bottom retest to the upside will be classic long entry plays for traders..
Largely Scalpers market the last days... Hard to even get safe short play reward/risk entry in the bloodbath.
As long as (well, until...) earnings dont puke left and right there is no reason we couldn't resume the bullmarket.
MSFT would (did) lead to that conclusion.
It dont matter (to the profs) if stocks are outlandishly overpriced. Being nimble is all that matters.
The public dont have any hope of that.
Little old ladies living on SS and saying on the nightly news, "Well, no way I'll sell my Garmin stock now. It was $100+,,,, now its $60.oo I BELIVE IN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.... IT WILL COME BACK.. ;D ::)"
Wall St says Bless her heart as they head off to The Hamptons.
That $7B event in France was prolly the last straw taht set off the European and Asian Martin L King day avalanche.
Sure made Benny look like a fool too, as if he didnt allready.
But NO base at 10 on the Dow. I Hope it touches 10 twice though. ;D
Have fun, I am.
Neon The USA is finished, why dont you short GOOG XOM NOV RTP on the next rally? Go all in. Max out all your credit and multiply it w/ stock acct margin.
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I think the deadcat Fedcat bounce already sucked in the public investment, wall street is having a nice ride with this.
Bond insurers are hanging tight claiming everything is honky dorry, what's your opinion on what's to come in the finanacial sector soon?
with the Fed expected to cut rates again next week, the financials should lead the market higher in the short term.
Dow 13,000 - 13,200 is possible with another 50bps cut, before we sell off again.
i still expect to hit 10,000 - 10,500 sometime this year.
IMO, long term investors should still avoid this market. sucker rallies.......are for suckers.
NT
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22854862
Societe Generale.....
According to this it didnt move the markets....
3 days to unwind it due to regs of not > 10% of a market transaction.
The Guy had $73.3$B on tap..... Outstripping the Banks Market Cap of $52.6B......
He's Dead man walking......
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haha fedcat bounce, yes thats the more correct way to put it :D
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Thain said the outlook for U.S. consumer spending is worsening and interest-rate cuts won't stem a slump in house prices.
``The problems in the credit market are spreading, they are spreading to the consumer sector,'' Thain told a panel at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. ``We are likely to see another wave of problems on the consumer-credit side.''
The U.S. economy may be heading for recession after a drop in house prices prompted a collapse in the subprime mortgage market that's roiled financial markets around the world. Global stock markets tumbled earlier this week and the Federal Reserve announced its first emergency rate reduction since 2001.
``Rate cuts and fiscal stimulus will not help the fall in house prices, so this problem is likely to continue,'' said Thain.
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve, confronted by deepening panic in global financial markets about a possible recession in the United States, struck back on Tuesday morning with the biggest one-day reduction of interest rates on record and at least temporarily stopped a vertigo-inducing plunge in stock prices.
The Fed’s move was prompted in part by turmoil in global markets on Monday, a holiday in the United States. The Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., watching the same market turmoil, was anxious enough that he called White House Chief of Staff Joshua B. Bolten, who ultimately put President Bush on the line.
In a statement accompanying the Fed’s decision, which was announced about an hour before the stock market opened for trading, officials hinted that they might reduce rates yet again at their scheduled meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.
guys as i've stated before, Henry Paulson leads the PPT (plunge protection team) and HE was responsible for the emergency rate cut on Tuesday.(not the Fed chairman) keep in mind, when the Fed/PPT lowers rates to the point that fixed investments cannot keep up with inflation.........trader s often turn back to the market no matter how bad it is.
with the market on technical support and interest rates being lowered......i expect more UPSIDE to this market over the short term.
Go and watch Ron PAul ask MCCain about the PPTeam and watch McCain squirm, the man has no idea what Ron asked him and McCain is leading Ron Paul in the election. It's unbelievable how niave the people are.
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Go and watch Ron PAul ask MCCain about the PPTeam and watch McCain squirm, the man has no idea what Ron asked him and McCain is leading Ron Paul in the election. It's unbelievable how niave the people are.
Thats because other than the FED there is no such thing as a "PPT". ;D
Go on believing in your fantasy 9/11 theories and the like.
I agree how naive ppl like you are that want to believe complicated BS and ignore what is in front of face.
Stopping a market meltdown is in the Govts interest,
but if market gets going down fast its got as much control as stopping a giant asteroid.
Its prolly best though for most to believe in fairy tails because they are too dumb to learn to interpert the live charts and react accordingly. Fact is most are just trapped in bad "investments" right now and will do nothing. ;D
"It'll turn in the long run". ::) Well I hope it works out for them, they are a big tribe. THe fact they are such a big tribe is prolly good. Mass hysteria could cause a prob. THe Govt would intervene then.
Tradding All these overvalued stocks is like a giant High Tech/ High Stakes game of musical chairs/ Duck Duck Goose .... You can tag along for the ride if you are nimble and take safe little pieces.
Just Waatch the heavy institutional buying on the next retest of that bottom.... Oh, you'd need to open a tradding acct 1st, you've never played live charts or watched a sell-off in realtime.......
The boys w/ fat checkbooks were paying up. But They want to see commitment.
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Thats because other than the FED there is no such thing as a "PPT". ;D
Go on believing in your fantasy 9/11 theories and the like.
I agree how naive ppl like you are that want to believe complicated BS and ignore what is in front of face.
Stopping a market meltdown is in the Govts interest,
but if market gets going down fast its got as much control as stopping a giant asteroid.
Its prolly best though for most to believe in fairy tails because they are too dumb to learn to interpert the live charts and react accordingly. Fact is most are just trapped in bad "investments" right now and will do nothing. ;D
"It'll turn in the long run". ::) Well I hope it works out for them, they are a big tribe. THe fact they are such a big tribe is prolly good. Mass hysteria could cause a prob. THe Govt would intervene then.
Tradding All these overvalued stocks is like a giant High Tech/ High Stakes game of musical chairs/ Duck Duck Goose .... You can tag along for the ride if you are nimble and take safe little pieces.
Just Waatch the heavy institutional buying on the next retest of that bottom.... Oh, you'd need to open a tradding acct 1st, you've never played live charts or watched a sell-off in realtime.......
The boys w/ fat checkbooks were paying up. But They want to see commitment.
::)
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What makes you such an expert Neurotoxin ? Just another delusional Getbigger ! ::)
He's a Fraud. THis is NOTHING but a political rant.
NOt one tiny bit of credibility.
I'm not a pro, but I bet there's NOt one trader here but me.
Cage fighters, 240lbers at "8% 4 weeks out" ::), NYSE floor Traders, Billionaires living in gated neighborhoods...
Jesus Christ what a bunch of delusional pretenders.... How needy for attn...
Prof traders cant even call a market bottom.
Want real market experience? Want to see how its done by pros?
PM me I can help you see the light., these phonies here deserve to lose and lose and lose....
Warning, its hard intense work... You'll get eaten alive if you try, but you'll see taht just by watching..
Nitwit is not going to be of any help.
Continue on their little delusional liberal rant.
It has merrit to attack Bushs actions, but money has NO Political conscience....NONE!
I can show you that fast, and free. Watch some real pros and learn in real time.
Watch them win, watch them lose.
It will change your thinking REAL FAST.
I hope his little crowd of supporters lose the bulk of every cent they have this week.
THey have good reason to be pissed, but deserve what they are getting.
'Xcuse me, I got to help revaluate sum stuff next week. We'll do it bar by bar, tick by tick.
Not with news stories or jabber from talking heads...
Or worse, sum Dumbass on the internet looking for attention.
I can back up what I say, He cant...
Learn what your money is doing while others babysit it.
See 1st hand.
PM me, invest some of your time and learn how little you know. This week could be awesome to watch.
Yrs later it'll pay off.
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Jesus H christ crab. You have done NOTHING in this thread except worship yourself....Its hilarious, man. Your the kid in the lunchroom who no one would sit with, watching and hating...but proving NOTHING.
What a fvckin airbag you are.
Why dont you copy and paste ANYTHING you have said that has come true!!!
NT is out on a limb pushing and validating his thoughts while your in the back janitors closet fisting your boyfriends ass and screaming "What about me"!!!!
::) :-X
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Jesus H christ crab. You have done NOTHING in this thread except worship yourself....Its hilarious, man. Your the kid in the lunchroom who no one would sit with, watching and hating...but proving NOTHING.
What a fvckin airbag you are.
Why dont you copy and paste ANYTHING you have said that has come true!!!
NT is out on a limb pushing and validating his thoughts while your in the back janitors closet fisting your boyfriends ass and screaming "What about me"!!!!
::) :-X
How'd your mom make out w/ her funds?
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I'm gonna stick with the $oex, Tick and Trin myself.
NOt some phony jackass that dont comprehend WTF taht even is.
Go smoke a bowl Nemo.
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Nitwit,,,,
How about lay some of your expertise on me about spotting a market turn by reading the
Put/Call ratios and Tick/ Trin and any other intraday indicators you use?
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Because you dont know WTF I'm talking about, thats why....
Change of subject now... Something we agree on,,,
Get rid of Benny Baby and replace him w/ Jesus Ferguson. How that sound ?
Hank and his Nefarious PPT can just tell Poker face what they need to convey.
A actor/ poker player is more fit for fed chairman mouthpiece job than a Ivy league economist.
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Thats because other than the FED there is no such thing as a "PPT". ;D
Its prolly best though for most to believe in fairy tails because they are too dumb to learn to interpert the live charts and react accordingly.
guys this is a very important read. ron paul did a great job getting bernanke to admit to the existence of the PPT. (formally known as "the presidents working group on financial markets") anyone who says otherwise, i would totally ignore.
New York Post
Thursday, July 27, 2006
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke revealed that the secretive Plunge Protection Team meets several times a year, but he dodged a congressman's inquiries about what the group does and whether minutes are kept of those meetings.
So the Post has filed a Freedom of Information Act request for those minutes -- specifically for the meetings that likely occurred immediately after the terrorist attacks in 2001.
I wrote about the Plunge Protection Team in a series of articles earlier this month. Formally called the Working Group on Financial Markets, it was formed in 1988 by President Reagan to advise Wall Street.
Headed by the Secretary of the Treasury, it also has top regulators and the chairman of the Fed as members.
The former White House adviser George Stephanopoulos seems to have confirmed -- that the Plunge Protection team has morphed into something more active. And Wall Street firms may have been invited to join.
What's clear from answers to questions posed by Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, is that new Fed chief Bernanke either doesn't know much about the role of the working group or preferred not to discuss the matter.
And, I think, it's time we found out a little more about an organization that could afford some Wall Street firms an opportunity to reap massive profits at the expense of ordinary investors.
Here's some of the exchange that occurred between Bernanke and Rep. Paul last Thursday at the House Financial Committee hearings. * * *
Rep. Paul: Good afternoon, Chairman Bernanke. I have a question dealing with the Working Group on Financial Markets. I want to learn more about that group and exactly what authority they have and what they do.
Could you tell me, as a member of the group, how often they meet and how often they have actions? And have they done something recently? And are there reports sent out by this particular group?
Bernanke: Yes, congressman. The president's working group was convened by the president, I believe, after the 1987 stock market crash. It meets irregularly. I would guess about four or five times a year. But I'm not exactly sure. And its PRIMARY function is advisory, to prepare reports. I mentioned earlier that we've been asked to prepare a report on the terrorism risk insurance. So that's what we GENERALLY do.
Rep. Paul: In the media you'll find articles that will claim, at least, that it's a lot more than advisory. You know, if there is a stock market crash, that you literally have a lot of authority, you know, to impose restrictions. And we're talking about many trillions of dollars slushing around in all the financial markets. And this involves the Treasury and, of course, the Fed as well as the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) And the reason this came to my attention was just recently there was an article that actually made a charge that out of this group came a position that interfered with the price of General Motors stock. Have you read that? Or do you know anything about that?
Bernanke: No sir. I don't.
Rep. Paul: But back to the issue of meeting. You tell me it meets irregularly. But are there minutes kept, or are there reports made on this group?
Bernanke: I believe there are records kept by the staff. There are staff, mostly from Treasury, but also from other agencies.
Rep. Paul: And they would be available to us in the committee?
Bernanke: I don't know. I'm sorry. I don't know.
* * *
Rep. Paul obviously doesn't have a reporter's knack for the follow-up question, so here's what I would have asked next.
Crudele: Well, Mr. Bernanke, how about you find out? Someone in your position should know if, as former White House adviser Stephanopoulos has claimed, the Working Group on Financial Markets -- the Plunge Protection Team -- has the authority to interfere with the free market for stocks. And we'd also like to know who makes decision for the group, politicians or guys on Wall Street. Don't misunderstand, Mr. Bernanke. I'm not saying what the group is doing is wrong. But why should firms like Goldman Sachs -- from which two of the last four Treasury secretaries have come -- be in a better position than anyone else who gambles in the stock market?
See, that's why I'll never be in Congress.
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John Crudele is business columnist for the New York Post.
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http://www.breifing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/PagePopup.aspx?PageId=3273
Heads up Nemo... watch your clicks...
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Nitwit,,,,
How about lay some of your expertise on me about spotting a market turn by reading the
Put/Call ratios and Tick/ Trin and any other intraday indicators you use?
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Because you dont know WTF I'm talking about, thats why....
Change of subject now... Something we agree on,,,
Get rid of Benny Baby and replace him w/ Jesus Ferguson. How that sound ?
Hank and his Nefarious PPT can just tell Poker face what they need to convey.
A actor/ poker player is more fit for fed chairman mouthpiece job than a Ivy league economist.
Active traders using what you just stated as an indicator for a market turnaround is as useful as picking random numbers trying to win the lottery.
Check up literature by Dan Solin or William Bernstein for facts backing this statement.
Anyways, I thought the point of this thread is to discuss how the market is doing as a whole and discuss long-term asset allocation strategy, not checking nuts to see who's a better day trader?
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Na... This is political is all pal...
Help a brother trader out will ya?
I been scouring the platforms looking for taht PPT convergence divergence oscillator to no avail ???
Where they put it?
Come on, help a guy get a edge....
Know waht? One of the best indicators of a turn is when the general public is screamin like a Banshee about any hot item...
PPT right here... http://www.tractorhouse.com/listings/detail.aspx?OHID=5270663&guid=977860DC70CB42638AA24FCA86B2237D
Whiny Lib.
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Trab, Any news out there to validate youre theorys??
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Trab, serious question...what is your point in posting in here?
Most of us do not trade options and that seems to be all you take about. You keep mentioning intraday indicators with calls and puts and all this complex shit, that in the end, causes more confusion than providing answers. Are you trying to advise your everyday Joe to actively trade in a market whose conditions are crazy right now, with the Dow swinging a few hundred points each day?
There are easier ways to understand the market, and Neuro is trying to help out in this endeavor.
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Trab, Any news out there to validate youre theorys??
I'm not sure if I ever saw him post a theory, John Deere getting bought out by the Chinese? Logic or Lunacy? That discussion never followed, only a click on this, something is behind my posting.
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Trab, serious question...what is your point in posting in here?
Most of us do not trade options and that seems to be all you take about. You keep mentioning intraday indicators with calls and puts and all this complex shit, that in the end, causes more confusion than providing answers. Are you trying to advise your everyday Joe to actively trade in a market whose conditions are crazy right now, with the Dow swinging a few hundred points each day?
There are easier ways to understand the market, and Neuro is trying to help out in this endeavor.
I dont have time for a answer this morn,,, Im on the charts and its gona be a Gassssss.......... ;D
THis guys has given NOTHING to work with here..... anyone novice in the market can PM me, the rest can burn.
This is a Political rant w/ NOTHING to do w/ help anyone....
Lean or suffer.... Hes offering nothing here but his politics.
The John Deer is a SHIT SPREADER FYI to the other fool.
Thats all Nemo spouts shit.
Spit up some real market facts and info or STUF.
Got to go,,,,, need help rearange sum stufff.f..........
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. builders slashed prices by more than 10% in December in a failed bid to boost sales, which dropped about 5% to the lowest level in nearly 13 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
For the year, sales declined at a record 26.4% pace.
"A lousy end to a lousy year," summarized Richard Moody, chief economist for Mission Residential.
The grim figures show no relief in sight for a battered building sector and are certain to be a major item on the Federal Reserve's agenda for its two-day policy-setting meeting that begins Tuesday
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with the Fed expected to cut rates again next week, the financials should lead the market higher in the short term.
Dow 13,000 - 13,200 is possible with another 50bps cut, before we sell off again.
i still expect to hit 10,000 - 10,500 sometime this year.
IMO, long term investors should still avoid this market. sucker rallies.......are for suckers.
guys, my opinion is unchanged.
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I dont have time for a answer this morn,,, Im on the charts and its gona be a Gassssss.......... ;D
THis guys has given NOTHING to work with here..... anyone novice in the market can PM me, the rest can burn.
This is a Political rant w/ NOTHING to do w/ help anyone....
Lean or suffer.... Hes offering nothing here but his politics.
The John Deer is a SHIT SPREADER FYI to the other fool.
Thats all Nemo spouts shit.
Spit up some real market facts and info or STUF.
Got to go,,,,, need help rearange sum stufff.f..........
You are a Dumbass.
Even People who dont usually post ,will Log-In to tell you that!!! ;D
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. builders slashed prices by more than 10% in December in a failed bid to boost sales, which dropped about 5% to the lowest level in nearly 13 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
For the year, sales declined at a record 26.4% pace.
"A lousy end to a lousy year," summarized Richard Moody, chief economist for Mission Residential.
The grim figures show no relief in sight for a battered building sector and are certain to be a major item on the Federal Reserve's agenda for its two-day policy-setting meeting that begins Tuesday
Yep, Same where I live. Gonna have to drop prices a hell of a lot to get people to buy again.. And that aint politics, thats just a fact. 8)
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You are a Dumbass.
Even People who dont usually post ,will Log-In to tell you that!!! ;D
I seriously wonder if Trab is high when he posts in this thread, as I can't comprehend the shit he's writing and I don't thiink anyone is checking for what he's saying either.
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I seriously wonder if Trab is high when he posts in this thread, as I can't comprehend the shit he's writing and I don't thiink anyone is checking for what he's saying either.
Im pretty sure he's a gimmick account. All he does is scream for attention, here. :-\
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Yep, Same where I live. Gonna have to drop prices a hell of a lot to get people to buy again.. And that aint politics, thats just a fact. 8)
the major problem that will overhang housing is lending practices. loans are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain w/o putting money down. all the "no money down" loans that sparked the housing bubble are currently non-existent and won't be seen again in our lifetime.
so, we not only need lower home prices ......we need buyers with cash to make 10-30 % down payments.
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Like War-Horse said, he has to be a gimmick account. No one can spew this much BS and expect to be taken seriously.
His posts reminds me of Proteinfarts, with the same sense of arrogance, and lack of grammar and sentence structure.
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guys, WTF is this douchebag trying to say ? ???
haha lol, not sure I sent it thru googles translator and it came back gibberish.
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any rally based off interest rate cuts will ultimately fail. do not get sucked in........the worst is not over.
earning is the lifeblood of the market. more interest rate cuts or Bush handing out 600.00 checks will not "stimulate" this economy.
any rally will be sold off by the big firms.
any deadcat bounce to stocks on interest rate cuts this week while inflation is high and the dollar is weak will fail.
keep in mind, Wall Street is pressuring bernanke for interest cuts as an excuse to rally this BAD market. without the cuts, we go straight to Dow 10,000 w/o a pause. with the cuts, it'll just take a bit longer to get to Dow 10,000.
do not......i repeat........do not get sucked in if you're a long term investor.
NT
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
Home Foreclosure Rate Soars in 2007
2008-01-29
LOS ANGELES (AP) - The number of U.S. homes that slipped into some stage of foreclosure in 2007 was 79 percent higher than in the previous year, a real estate tracking company said Tuesday. Many homeowners started to fall behind on mortgage payments in the last three months, setting the stage for more foreclosures this year.
About 1.3 million homes received foreclosure-related warnings last year, up from 717,522 in 2006, Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. said. Foreclosure filings rose 75 percent from the previous year to 2.2 million.
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for durable goods rose 5.2% in December, led by aircraft and defense capital goods, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
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when defense and aircraft lead durable goods orders, it's not positive economic indicator.
NT
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guys, this is NOT a scientific study...... but i spoke with a number of people today who believe a .25bps cut tomorrow will cause the market to head lower, a 50bps cut will initiate another short lived rally.
either way, the general consensus is the market's still in trouble.
besides, WTF do i know ? go ask our resident expert trab. ;D
Seriously, do you think what you just said here is like "hot" news? Not that im saying you dont know your stuff but it seems to me you are trying to play big.. thats all!
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benz, sorry the previous post bothered you. i was just passing along info. from conversations i recently had. if you believe i'm playing "big", just go to another thread.
have a great day !
It didnt bother me, dont worry
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I dont really scour the market news like NT or others here...so i appreciate getting little clips of it here in this thread.
Wow, a 79% increase in forclosures.....and its just starting too. Yeah with them tightening credit standards they are going to limit even what business they could have had. The days of "stated income loans" w/out verification is catching up and will hurl the housing into a market price correction. If people have to tell the truth about incomes ($15hr ).....prices will have to drop.
Thats when i think Ill buy some properties.....but not till rock bottom and thats gonna be awhile because the PPT will make it a slow death by trying to rally the market.. aka "Kick a dead horse"
Im doing pretty good huh NT.....? ;D
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Thats when i think Ill buy some properties.....but not till rock bottom and thats gonna be awhile because the PPT will make it a slow death by trying to rally the market.. aka "Kick a dead horse"
Properties and stock are two seperate types of capital. Stocks are paper, basic appreciating assets, real estate is land it is appreciable in the real sense of feasibility, 2 of Adam Smith's ways of accumulating wealth, your on the right track : )
Real Estate is not bottomed yet not the Market, right now we have to sit out and watch the blame game, for both of them. Look back to the 80's in terms of REOs, and the 78-79 period in terms of stocks and inflationary concerns (oil).
The major indices broke the bull market a few weeks back, it's official, that debate is over and done with Neuro's thread purpose accomplished.
Now the question is how to move your money so as not too continue too lose it, with the economic crisis.
Neuro start another thread, lol ;D
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Properties and stock are two seperate types of capital. Stocks are paper, basic appreciating assets, real estate is land it is appreciable in the real sense of feasibility, 2 of Adam Smith's ways of accumulating wealth, your on the right track : )
Real Estate is not bottomed yet not the Market, right now we have to sit out and watch the blame game, for both of them. Look back to the 80's in terms of REOs, and the 78-79 period in terms of stocks and inflationary concerns (oil).
The major indices broke the bull market a few weeks back, it's official, that debate is over and done with Neuro's thread purpose accomplished.
Now the question is how to move your money so as not too continue too lose it, with the economic crisis.
Neuro start another thread, lol ;D
Good post. I like property for that reason, its real, i can walk on it. Stocks worry me more for my friends and family who have 401ks and dabble in the market. Thats why trabs posts about daytrading are just BS to me.
Ive always been self-employed and made my own money thru my construction company and property investments when i wanted.
However i realize that my security is dependant on the blue collar workers of the world......if there hurtin, Ill be hurtin.......so gear-Up.. ;D
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Good post. I like property for that reason, its real, i can walk on it. Stocks worry me more for my friends and family who have 401ks and dabble in the market. Thats why trabs posts about daytrading are just BS to me.
Ive always been self-employed and made my own money thru my construction company and property investments when i wanted.
However i realize that my security is dependant on the blue collar workers of the world......if there hurtin, Ill be hurtin.......so gear-Up.. ;D
Yeah, that is part of the problem though for the public "dabbling" in the market. The market is a dangerous place to dabble with your money, only play what you can lose.
I agree, it hurts to see other people in this grand country hurt.
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I dont really scour the market news like NT or others here...so i appreciate getting little clips of it here in this thread.
Wow, a 79% increase in forclosures.....and its just starting too. Yeah with them tightening credit standards they are going to limit even what business they could have had. The days of "stated income loans" w/out verification is catching up and will hurl the housing into a market price correction. If people have to tell the truth about incomes ($15hr ).....prices will have to drop.
Thats when i think Ill buy some properties.....but not till rock bottom and thats gonna be awhile because the PPT will make it a slow death by trying to rally the market.. aka "Kick a dead horse"
Im doing pretty good huh NT.....? ;D
financial news is always important to keep an eye on because it gives you the "pulse" of the market. no CNBC spin........just the facts.
tangible assets like property is always great to buy.....but wait until after the smoke has cleared. i myself will add to my rental inventory in the future as well. personally i would avoid all housing related stocks........their run is over.
opportunities like this are very rare and will pay handsomely to those who are patient.
great post W.H. you're doing great ! :D
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Properties and stock are two seperate types of capital. Stocks are paper, basic appreciating assets, real estate is land it is appreciable in the real sense of feasibility, 2 of Adam Smith's ways of accumulating wealth, your on the right track : )
Real Estate is not bottomed yet not the Market, right now we have to sit out and watch the blame game, for both of them. Look back to the 80's in terms of REOs, and the 78-79 period in terms of stocks and inflationary concerns (oil).
The major indices broke the bull market a few weeks back, it's official, that debate is over and done with Neuro's thread purpose accomplished.
Now the question is how to move your money so as not too continue too lose it, with the economic crisis.
Neuro start another thread, lol ;D
my opinion for the average investor is to just stay OUT of harm's way. when the market begins to stabilize and turn, i'll start another thread (if you want) to let you guys know where i'm investing my money.
patientice and avoiding the market hype is key. anyone who has followed jim cramer or CNBC's advice............have lost bigtime. (nothing but cheerleaders)
NT
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, reported a record loss after about $14 billion of writedowns on assets infected by subprime mortgages in the U.S.
The fourth-quarter net loss of 12.5 billion Swiss francs ($11.4 billion) was almost double what analysts surveyed by Bloomberg were estimating.
UBS posted its first annual loss since the company was created through a merger a decade ago, with the fourth-quarter drop exceeding the records reported earlier this month by Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. The collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market has led to more than $130 billion of losses and markdowns at securities firms and banks since June.
``The damage is enormous,'' said Dominique Biedermann, director of Ethos Foundation in Geneva that holds UBS shares worth about 80 million francs and has called for an independent audit of the bank's controls. ``It wipes out profit and shows that an inquiry is needed to make sure it doesn't happen again, and eventually whose responsibility this is.''
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F.B.I. Opens Subprime Inquiry
Published: January 30, 2008
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has opened criminal inquiries into 14 companies as part of a wide-ranging investigation of the troubled mortgage industry, F.B.I. officials said Tuesday.
The F.B.I. said it was looking into possible accounting fraud, insider trading or other violations in connection with loans made to borrowers with weak, or subprime, credit.
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
BTW, i don't write this stuff. i point out what's currently happening economically whether it positive or negative. if involved in the market, you must be completely objective to be successful. often, this type of information helps form underlying market psychology, which ultimately influences big trading firms.
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy teetered on the edge of a recession in the fourth quarter as home construction fell the most in 26 years and Americans cut back on spending.
Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent, down from 4.9 percent in the prior three months, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
``We're on the verge of a recession,'' said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight Inc., a Lexington, Massachusetts-based forecasting firm. ``The consumer really is tapped out. The housing numbers are going to keep getting worse, at least through mid-year.''
Investors added to bets that the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark rate by half a percentage point today. Combined with last week's three-quarter point cut, it would be the fastest easing of monetary policy since 1990. The world's largest economy is reeling from the collapse in subprime lending, falling house prices and a credit squeeze that's eroding business and consumer confidence. Factories also made fewer cars.
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Greenspan doubts Fed's ability to prevent recession
2 hours, 10 minutes ago
BERLIN (AFP) - Former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan cast doubt on the ability of the central bank to prevent a US recession in an interview to appear on Thursday.
Greenspan told the German weekly Die Zeit that the Fed or political policies could "probably not" keep the world's biggest economy from sliding into recession, as financial markets widely expected the US central bank to cut its main lending rate.
"The influences of the global economy today are stronger than almost any monetary or budgetary response," the German-language weekly quoted Greenspan as saying.
Although he left the post of Fed chairman two years ago, Greenspan's opinions on the economy are still sought after.
"Real long-term interest rates have much more influence over the heart of economic activity than national decisions," he was quoted as adding.
"And central banks have less and less power to influence long term rates."
The former Fed chief put the chances of a US recession at 50 percent, but added: "We have few indications that would allow us to say we are already there."
Some analysts have said that low interest rates under Greenspan's watch were responsible in part for the US housing bubble that burst last year, and led to the current financial crisis.
Die Zeit quoted him as saying he found it hard to understand that "the Federal Reserve policy had somehow allowed housing and stock prices to rise."
Fallout from the crisis, which began with a meltdown of the US market for high-risk, or subprime, mortgages, continues to rock international financial markets and now threatens the US economy with a recession.
For Greenspan however, the turmoil was "entirely the result of market forces at a global level."
The Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) was to announce its decision on US lending rates later on Wednesday.
It surprised markets last week by slashing the base Fed funds rate by three quarters of a percentage point to 3.50 percent, but it is widely expected to follow through with another cut to 3.0 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080130/pl_afp/germanyuseconomygreenspan
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Fed could cut rates to 1% and nothing will happen. Middle america has overspent and has nothing left to give.
Housing prices were allowed to go sky high simply because it caused the american people to say something positive about the administration at the time. Being in a war no one wants...it was a good distraction to buy some time.
Most knew that interest rates should have rose to slow down the bubble....but all that was mattered was trying to get people to think positive for awhile.
Well, Now its time to clean up the mess for a huge party givin last nite.....hangover and all.
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I'd like to hear opinions on when the best time to buy a home would be in the next 12-18 months.
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I'd like to hear opinions on when the best time to buy a home would be in the next 12-18 months.
yes....its gonna be fun to watch the prices drop. Even when they do, most wont be approved for the loans with tightend credit standards.
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following the .50bps cut today, the market rallied almost 200 points only to give it all back and finish down 37.00 points. traders are selling INTO rallies, as they normally do in bear markets.
not an encouraging sign.
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any rally based off interest rate cuts will ultimately fail. do not get sucked in........the worst is not over.
earning is the lifeblood of the market. more interest rate cuts or Bush handing out 600.00 checks will not "stimulate" this economy.
any rally will be sold off by the big firms.
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WH is right on the money ! :D
Yes he is.
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Yes he is.
Thanks. Im learning alot around here lately... ;)
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Hey Pretenders....
Here. Here's one for the sky is falling gang - (DOG)
If the sky is falling, why not take a nice chunk of it? Hell, its all redeemable...
Even a dummy nurocrat can play.
I'm sorry, I overestimated you guys knowledge base, Apparently the DE shitspreader irony was lost.
But THANKS for jogging my memory to peek at the DE chart 8).... It'd Been awhile.... $weet. :-*
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Thanks. Im learning alot around here lately... ;)
Naw, you know it all bud...
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Naw, you know it all bud...
Im ALWAYS Learning. Mom is fine BTW. ;)
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guys.....
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose more than forecast last week to a 27-month high, evidence of a weakening job market.
Initial jobless claims increased by 69,000 to 375,000 in the week ended Jan. 26, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The increase in claims was the biggest since just after Hurricane Katrina in September 2005.
NT
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WASHINGTON 1/31/08 (MarketWatch) - U.S. real consumer spending flattened out in December, further evidence that the economy was getting weaker as the fourth quarter sputtered to an end.Real consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, was unchanged in December following a 0.4% gain in November, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
The report shows consumer spending weakening as the quarter progressed, giving the first quarter a weak beginning. The report comes just a day after the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates again in a bid to prevent financial market's skittishness and a worsening housing market from causing a recession.
Core inflation -- which excludes food and energy prices -- remained uncomfortably above the Fed's target zone, coming in as expected at 0.2% for December and 2.2% for the past 12 months.
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guys, when Core Inflation is uncomfortably above the Feds target, what do you believe lowering interest rates does ?
the Fed is boxed in a corner........
NT
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Ive got to admit, this is fun to watch after all the frustrating lies Bush would tell about the economy being strong.
And saying the mission is accomplished in Iraq 1,890 days ago.
Everytime he would get to the podium and try to say these things I would ask
"What planet is he living on"?
In case any out there dont see how bush is tied to such events.....they fail to recognize that he is simply a major power in the corporate world and one world economy that is the goal.....to get there you have to manipulate and lie to the american people...(he thinks its for our own good)
The capitialism pyramid is falling, all our money is borrowed and to be replaced with a stronger currency. we need major change ,not the same old politics. The constitution must be restored.
I believe in America and hope when they vote, its for a radical change like ron paul. Anyone else dems or repubs will lead us into a full scale depression.
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any deadcat bounce to stocks on interest rate cuts this week while inflation is high and the dollar is weak will fail.
keep in mind, Wall Street is pressuring bernanke for interest cuts as an excuse to rally this BAD market. without the cuts, we go straight to Dow 10,000 w/o a pause. with the cuts, it'll just take a bit longer to get to Dow 10,000.
do not......i repeat........do not get sucked in if you're a long term investor.
NT
I've enjoyed reading this thread, but am not quite as sure about Dow 10K this year as you. The public sentiment right now is very negative towards the market. Even the Fed and the financial media will have a hard time prodding the retail investor back into the market. If WS insiders were to take market down further, it would trigger massive selling which would deplete insider short sale inventories, which, in turn would require subsequent rallies to unload the newly acquired merchandise. Insiders need to work prices down on LOW volume in order to preserve their profits.
Like you, I believe the long term trend is down, but, I could see the market trading sideways for the year.
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Jan. 30/08 Peter Schiff on FBN after the second rate cut
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-1-30-08_lg.asp (http://www.europac.net/Schiff-FBN-1-30-08_lg.asp)
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Peter has been right many times and I love the Ron Paul plug! Nice video, thanks.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/etfs/html-profile.asp?symb=DOG&sid=2354547&dist=TQP_Nav_profile
I'm not recomending this etf. But there are many similar ones also.
THis market could churn rather sideways for years. Play it bar by bar or dont play it at all IMO.
I'm Not comfortable w/ overnight holds, but a lot of traders still are.
ANd theres still A LOT of money being made every day, Long and short no matter market direction.
THere was a LOT of buyers at high volume at the past lows waiting for a retest. Big green bars on heavy volume.
retail and home builders were frying hot.
IT needs to retest, and not just a 2 consecutive day thing.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall below the last lows.
BUt even the experts cant predict.
Ive allways thought it puzzling how the public is largely invested in something they have NO Understanding of.
Basically they've been baited in.
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Ive allways thought it puzzling how the public is largely invested in something they have NO Understanding of.
Basically they've been baited in.
I don't think it's so much that they've been baited, as much that they've just been ignorant & lazy.
For the most part they have always said "Here, take my money", ...and have never really paid much attention to what was going on, or how they were exposed.
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I don't think it's so much that they've been baited, as much that they've just been ignorant & lazy.
For the most part they have always said "Here, take my money", ...and have never really paid much attention to what was going on, or how they were exposed.
No, they are given tax incentive, thus baited.
They understand - ZERO.
Just read thru this thread and its clear, talking market w/ general public is basically banging head on a wall...
I almost cry when I hear "Ill just ride it out no matter ,,," Hey, Better them than me.
Markets go up, markets go down.... (They can go down much faster..)
All that extra dumb money is good for the Big Boys, what would average Joe piss it away on anyway?
Look at GOOG last night. That 4-Letter ticker is thick in PPL's accts and they dont even know it...
Its so intwined that the last time it got sick, it was immediately put on a major index to save it and its holders.
Yeah, GOOG is pretty cool, but is it really worth that multiple? ;D
Pull up SHWH or similar and see how fast reality can set in.
Instead of crying that their dog got hit by a car, ppl need to learn to make a tasty meal from Wall St road kill.
Its not THAT hard, but reading this thread reinforces how NOT VERY SMART MOST ARE. They prolly ARE better off
buy and forget it. They will pull at worst possible time.
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No, they are given tax incentive, thus baited.
I don't think the average public invests for a tax incentive. They do it to try to get ahead.
It's the big boys and those with much to spare that are in for the incentives.
They understand - ZERO.
That's what I mean by they're ignorant. They don't know. And the majority have never even lifted a finger to learn.
Just read thru this thread and its clear, talking market w/ general public is basically banging head on a wall...
I almost cry when I hear "Ill just ride it out no matter ,,," Hey, Better them than me.
Markets go up, markets go down.... (They can go down much faster..)
That's why it's imperative people understand what's going on. It's getting better though.
In the past decade, there's been a tremendous increase in people educating themselves about the markets.
All that extra dumb money is good for the Big Boys, what would average Joe piss it away on anyway?
Ohhhh... I don't know... paying down/off mortgages, ...ensuring a solid stable retirement comes to mind. :D
Instead of crying that their dog got hit by a car, ppl need to learn to make a tasty meal from Wall St road kill.
Right now, I think most are simply trying to avoid becoming roadkill themselves. It's just like when you're flying.
The flight attendants make sure to tell you to secure YOUR life vest and/or respiratory devices first, before securing anyone else's. I'd advise anyone looking to feast off roadkill to be very cautious of catching rabies. :o
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guys.....
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in January for the first time in more than four years, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further next month to head off a recession.
Payrolls fell by 17,000 after an 82,000 gain in December that was larger than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington.
The drop in payrolls, in the wake of tighter credit, a deeper housing slump and a stumbling stock market, is the clearest sign yet that the U.S. expansion is at risk. Payrolls are one of the indicators, along with wages, production and sales, that help determine the start of economic contractions.
``The labor market is very close to the edge here and it would not take much to push the economy over the cliff,'' Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. ``More and more companies are reporting layoffs. Now we are seeing that the economy is, indeed, perhaps just inches away from a recession.''
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http://candlecharts.com/highlights/nisonupdate/
Here's something you can actually use, Steve Nison brought candlestick charts to the states and revolutionised
Technical analysis.
The Forex info is going to be way over most heads, but If you want to further explore what these signals tell you would be smart.
Then your not at the mercy of Talking heads or self aggrandizing sons-of-a-bitches (with an agenda, and quite possibly something to gain) pumping fear into you about that which you are ignorant. You can learn to be quite accurate about reversal signals. Children can be taught to spot them.
Tops more so than bottoms.
The answerers are with in yourself (with some work), not Jimmy Cramer or some Broker or analyst or news story.
You cant make decisions about this field off news, all news is too late...
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No, they are given tax incentive, thus baited.
They understand - ZERO.
When the market is rising, you hear about it on the news and read about it in the papers. So, if you're a guy with $$ in the bank collecting 3-4%, you feel as though you're on the outside. Unfortunately, the public doesn't realize that it's being goaded into buying at the tops of rallies so that insiders can unload their inventory and establish major short positions which will allow them profit on the downside when they eventually buy back the stock from the public.
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When the market is rising, you hear about it on the news and read about it in the papers. So, if you're a guy with $$ in the bank collecting 3-4%, you feel as though you're on the outside. Unfortunately, the public doesn't realize that it's being goaded into buying at the tops of rallies so that insiders can unload their inventory and establish major short positions which will allow them profit on the downside when they eventually buy back the stock from the public.
Its not that simple,,,(Also, the tax incentives Ive allways questioned. THe market has historically done a lot of harm to even fairly sophisticated old wealth families. Like swimming in the rip w/ low skills for most)
But, it (market) is essentially fair. You to can also short the market.
Many Profs prefer to, as its much faster movement.
If you start to learn now, in a couple years you;ll have a knowledge base where your not a victim anymore.
Why only make money on the upside? Its silly to think markets should only & continually move up.
Jubak often has a good story. I dont belong to his fundaMENTAL analysis camp though. I prefer to look only at whatt is real and transpiring before my face. All else is conjecture. His breed also miss out on the superhigh profit stuff that is Briefly priced insane. THat is where the big money is, not some stodgy old PE valuations.
Many Level II screen watchers hold NYSE secureties in near disdain.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/StocksToBuyAfterTheBloodbath.aspx?GT1=10923
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But, it (market) is essentially fair. You to can also short the market.
LOL
If you're a trader, then you know the Market Makers for Nasdaq stocks: GS, Merrill, UBS, JP Morgan etc. That's who the small investor is up against. The investment banks have more money more information, better technology and a million loopholes to rules (eg. exemption from margin requirements). They can pummel a stock one way or another so that THEY, not you, can make a profit. As far as short selling, when the little guy starts doing this, all a sudden, there's a rally like what we've had the past two weeks, and even if you do make money short selling, you're gonna sweat for it.
The market can be beaten, but, unless you're going to put a FULL TIME effort into it, you're better off on the sidelines.
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LOL
If you're a trader, then you know the Market Makers for Nasdaq stocks: GS, Merrill, UBS, JP Morgan etc. That's who the small investor is up against. The investment banks have more money more information, better technology and a million loopholes to rules (eg. exemption from margin requirements). They can pummel a stock one way or another so that THEY, not you, can make a profit. As far as short selling, when the little guy starts doing this, all a sudden, there's a rally like what we've had the past two weeks, and even if you do make money short selling, you're gonna sweat for it.
The market can be beaten, but, unless you're going to put a FULL TIME effort into it, you're better off on the sidelines.
There are advantage the small trader has that the big boys never will. They are not nimble in their giant positions, and you can also see their tracks by the tick and hitch a ride anytime you want, all day long, back and forth.
Do you trade? Level II?
I dont think so....
Ive watched a tremendous amt$z made the last 2 weeks even in these condits by good traders.
Stop crying and start learing. This is going to be awhile.
No Neuro or Cramer or Mr Juback or Mr McMillan is going to tell you when to go long for the next years or even weeks.
Utter delusions. Notice the Real Pros dont ever make such pretensions...
Shit, theres little guys that play nothing but the morning gaps for a hour daily and pull a very good living.
But I am seriously overestimating the intelligence of the average Get Bigger.
You have a chance if YOU QUIT SELLING YOURSELF SHORT, and stop believing in some mysterious conspiratorial forces that are excuses to fail or not even try. The danger is you susceede and see how much of your life you wasted on liberal self pitty and excuses for your lack of satisfaction . Take it slow and that nitemare will be realised. Rush in and you'll blow out, perhaps thats where your at.
The only thing GS and Merril have done to me is make me money.Boo Hoo.
Please make it stop.... ;D 8)
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Trab. you are a gimmick account. In this thread alone you have been owned by everybody and their second cousin.
You are a hot airbag of corn-filled shit.
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There are advantage the small trader has that the big boys never will. They are not nimble in their giant positions, and you can also see their tracks by the tick and hitch a ride anytime you want, all day long, back and forth.
Do you trade? Level II?
I dont think so....
Ive watched a tremendous amt$z made the last 2 weeks even in these condits by good traders.
Stop crying and start learing. This is going to be awhile.
No Neuro or Cramer or Mr Juback or Mr McMillan is going to tell you when to go long for the next years or even weeks.
Utter delusions. Notice the Real Pros dont ever make such pretensions...
Shit, theres little guys that play nothing but the morning gaps for a hour daily and pull a very good living.
But I am seriously overestimating the intelligence of the average Get Bigger.
You have a chance if YOU QUIT SELLING YOURSELF SHORT, and stop believing in some mysterious conspiratorial forces that are excuses to fail or not even try. The danger is you susceede and see how much of your life you wasted on liberal self pitty and excuses for your lack of satisfaction . Take it slow and that nitemare will be realised. Rush in and you'll blow out, perhaps thats where your at.
The only thing GS and Merril have done to me is make me money.Boo Hoo.
Please make it stop.... ;D 8)
The fact that the only investment you talk about is the stock market CONFIRMS to me how little you know about real investors.
The stock market is where the real investors "play" with their money.
Real investors are doing JV partnerships, investing in PPM's, and Pre IPO business. Of course there is the Hardmoney side to residential and commercial real estate as well.
There is a reason that the only investment that the general public knows about is the stock market. Because they are too stupid to evaluate real investments, so the government has regulations to protect them.
I'm talking about returns of 1-10% per month. I am in one investment where it takes a MINIMUM of 250,000 to get into it.
I know several millionaires and don't know any that made their money in the market.
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The fact that the only investment you talk about is the stock market CONFIRMS to me how little you know about real investors.
The stock market is where the real investors "play" with their money.
Real investors are doing JV partnerships, investing in PPM's, and Pre IPO business. Of course there is the Hardmoney side to residential and commercial real estate as well.
There is a reason that the only investment that the general public knows about is the stock market. Because they are too stupid to evaluate real investments, so the government has regulations to protect them.
I'm talking about returns of 1-10% per month. I am in one investment where it takes a MINIMUM of 250,000 to get into it.
I know several millionaires and don't know any that made their money in the market.
You are another shit talker....
PPL with money dont tend to talk/ brag numbers
Another patheic GB phony.
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You are another shit talker....
PPL with money dont tend to talk/ brag numbers
Another patheic GB phony.
Storm is right. Hard money is where its at.........property, RE, % company buyouts...etc.
Anyone has to be concerned with people who will depend on 401k's and IRA,s for retirement.......(stock market) Breaking them will break me......
P.S. Trab, do yourself a favor........... delete your account.
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P.S. Trab, do yourself a favor........... delete your account.
hehehe ;D
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Im no pro trader, I know a couple... Neuro gives no reason.. Where/ WHy is support going to breach?
Why do you assume that just because someone describes the realities of beating the stock market that they know nothing about it? Don't act like you're some kind of stock market genius because you trade Level II. Anyone who can afford $10 a month can get level II. I trade only S&P 100 stocks. Why? Because they're very popular for shorting, plus, when the market rallies, those stocks are most likely to follow the trend. Most of the nasdaq stocks are a crap shoot. I prefer to go for the steady dime rather than the seldom dollar.
You sound like a typical know-it-all 25 year old wannabe guru. I've seen thousands of your type come and go.
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Instead of pissing matches why don't you guys post your portfolios to determine who is the Stock market guru?
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Instead of pissing matches why don't you guys post your portfolios to determine who is the Stock market guru?
People with real money dont tend to brag it or even talk about it.
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Why do you assume that just because someone describes the realities of beating the stock market that they know nothing about it? Don't act like you're some kind of stock market genius because you trade Level II. Anyone who can afford $10 a month can get level II. I trade only S&P 100 stocks. Why? Because they're very popular for shorting, plus, when the market rallies, those stocks are most likely to follow the trend. Most of the nasdaq stocks are a crap shoot. I prefer to go for the steady dime rather than the seldom dollar.
You sound like a typical know-it-all 25 year old wannabe guru. I've seen thousands of your type come and go.
YOur steady S&P dime is turning (turned) to copper.
If you think that the S&P is where the short shooters should live your a fool.
Volatility cries to be shorted. And that is much more common and extreme on the NAS.
Total short interest is another issue, but average good Technical trader is way better off in the NAS if shorting is his game.
Its all good with a decent entry and risk/reward, but you have less human manipulation exposure in 4 letter land.
"The S&P is better for shorting than the NASDAQ ::)"
Oh Brother,,,,,
Clearly a few here have never made a order entry. I highly encourage them to, Ill enjoy spending some of your money.
PPT?
Greenie points out that long term rates are the ONLY thing that can control global markets these days, and even central banks are out of control.
But he is wagering on a recession, Thats like saying it might get cold in Green Bay this week.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22915257/
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YOur steady S&P dime is turning (turned) to copper.
If you think that the S&P is where the short shooters should live your a fool.
Volatility cries to be shorted. And that is much more common and extreme on the NAS.
Total short interest is another issue, but average good Technical trader is way better off in the NAS if shorting is his game.
Its all good with a decent entry and risk/reward, but you have less human manipulation exposure in 4 letter land.
"The S&P is better for shorting than the NASDAQ ::)"
Oh Brother,,,,,
Clearly a few here have never made a order entry. I highly encourage them to, Ill enjoy spending some of your money.
PPT?
Greenie points out that long term rates are the ONLY thing that can control global markets these days, and even central banks are out of control.
But he is wagering on a recession, Thats like saying it might get cold in Green Bay this week.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22915257/
Trab, earlier in this thread you said you trade with a stop/loss and a trailing stop loss, if you really do trade with a Lvevl II screen, then you should now that that is one of the dumbest things you can do, sicne the specialist and your broker see your stop loss % and bump you out of the trade. Also the NAsdaq is NO place for a rookie with the extreme voltality, the nasdaq system is much different that the nyse you just got confused again and equated voltality with profit, that is risky, it's not about taking a a risk or being right its about making money huge diffrence. You make it seem like you either have to be in the market sitting all the time on the sidelines in cash is the best play of them from Joe Kennedy etc..... Actually most REAL investors take a vaction during a bull run, Zanger, Neil. Playing 1 or 2 stocks running a trned is one thing but playing a game of 52 card pick up is another.
Also technical analysis has about a 20% place for the Nasdaq, it's all about sentiment, and emotion a 50 point spread on stocks has nothing to do with analysis of charts.
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Trab, earlier in this thread you said you trade with a stop/loss and a trailing stop loss, if you really do trade with a Lvevl II screen, then you should now that that is one of the dumbest things you can do, sicne the specialist and your broker see your stop loss % and bump you out of the trade.
This is the catch 22 of trading high volitility stocks. You need to place a stop so that you don't get wiped out by a wild swing, but, if you do place one, you're playing the hand with your cards face up.
Trab can shoot his mouth off all day, but, the reality is that about 95% of Joe Schmo intraday traders eventually go bust.
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Trab, earlier in this thread you said you trade with a stop/loss and a trailing stop loss, if you really do trade with a Level II screen, then you should now that that is one of the dumbest things you can do, since the specialist and your broker see your stop loss % and bump you out of the trade. Also the NAsdaq is NO place for a rookie with the extreme voltality, the nasdaq system is much different that the nyse you just got confused again and equated voltality with profit, that is risky, it's not about taking a a risk or being right its about making money huge diffrence. You make it seem like you either have to be in the market sitting all the time on the sidelines in cash is the best play of them from Joe Kennedy etc..... Actually most REAL investors take a vaction during a bull run, Zanger, Neil. Playing 1 or 2 stocks running a trned is one thing but playing a game of 52 card pick up is another.
Also technical analysis has about a 20% place for the Nasdaq, it's all about sentiment, and emotion a 50 point spread on stocks has nothing to do with analysis of charts.
good post yam.
NT
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This is the catch 22 of trading high volitility stocks. You need to place a stop so that you don't get wiped out by a wild swing, but, if you do place one, you're playing the hand with your cards face up.
Trab can shoot his mouth off all day, but, the reality is that about 95% of Joe Schmo intraday traders eventually go bust.
That's real talk on here.
You can tell Trab is an amateur when he actually believes technical analysis can identify when the market hits bottom. This guy/gal/tranny honestly sounds like it just started learning how to trade options and is all excited to drop these trading terms in this thread to garner attention and praise, when in reality it comes out as a big clusterfuck of useless information and a major source of annoyance.
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You are another shit talker....
PPL with money dont tend to talk/ brag numbers
Another patheic GB phony.
I never said I had money.
If anything I was bragging that I know of and have access to investments that others don't ;D
Between home equity and 401k's there are many people that have 250k
I don't own a home, and don't have a 401k anymore. I pulled all my money along with two family members that wanted to invest with me. I am working with just under 400,000 now. I'm not wealthy, and still work my day job.
Hell, a guy I work with made 400k when he sold his house in CA and moved here. He has it sitting in a bank CD.
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now the longest thread in political.
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guys, for your reading pleasure.
Layoff announcements jump 69% in January
Feb. 4, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A fresh surge in financial-sector layoffs contributed to a 69% increase in corporate job-cut announcements in January, according to the latest tally compiled by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas released Monday.
U.S. corporations announced 74,986 job reductions last month, up from December's 44,416 and 19% higher compared with the previous January
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with the Fed expected to cut rates again next week, the financials should lead the market higher in the short term.
Dow 13,000 - 13,200 is possible with another 50bps cut, before we sell off again.
i still expect to hit 10,000 - 10,500 sometime this year.
IMO, long term investors should still avoid this market. sucker rallies.......are for suckers.
all opinion, no advice.
NT
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Worries about the economy are topping Americans' minds as the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees head into crucial primaries or caucuses scheduled to take place in 24 states Tuesday, a new poll found.
On the eve of "Super Tuesday," more than eight in 10 Americans say the economy is "not so good" or "poor," while nearly six in 10 believe that the U.S. is already in a recession.
The results came in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll on Monday.
Who is the Chick in your Avatar?
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i have no idea.
Seriously?
So you just take a random pic? Wierd.
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Seriously?
So you just take a random pic? Wierd.
When you go to profile in youre account, it a stock avatar you can choose. Most of them are hollywood stars and such......quite a few to choose from.
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U.S. Stocks Fall After Service Industries Unexpectedly Shrink
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled the most in three weeks after service industries fell to the lowest levels since 2001, reinforcing speculation the economy has tipped into a recession
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Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in January at the fastest pace since the 2001 recession as the housing slump deepened and consumer spending cooled.
``This is a stunning fall,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York. ``If accurate, it's dire news on the economy.''
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if you decide to stay in stocks for the time being......definitely get OUT after Christmas. the shit will surely hit the fan after the holiday.....if not sooner.
So when is this crash gonna happen? The holidays have come and gone and no crash yet. Isn't all of this just part of the economy? Isn't the economy and the stock market a roller coaster?
If you scare enough people into withdrawing their funds, isn't that what would actually cause a crash?
I'm not an American, but the US economy does affect the world.
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So when is this crash gonna happen? The holidays have come and gone and no crash yet. Isn't all of this just part of the economy? Isn't the economy and the stock market a roller coaster?
If you scare enough people into withdrawing their funds, isn't that what would actually cause a crash?
I'm not an American, but the US economy does affect the world.
No, it is not up and down. Those that understand the basis of our monetary system know that the days of runaway inflation are coming.
The middle class is being wiped out, the stock market is held up by the Fed's easy money policy, and our entire economy functions on debt.
If you have debt, and you cannot sustain yourself without more debt, it is not hard to see the inevitable result.
1 dollar today has the same purchasing power as 4 cents in 1913. However the purchasing power of gold has essentially remained the same. An example used is you could purchase a higher end suit for one ounce of gold.
This is not inflation from demand, this is destruction of our currency brought about by the creation of credit out of thin air, and the government printing more money. All of the borrowing also contributes, as well.
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So when is this crash gonna happen? The holidays have come and gone and no crash yet. Isn't all of this just part of the economy? Isn't the economy and the stock market a roller coaster?
If you scare enough people into withdrawing their funds, isn't that what would actually cause a crash?
I'm not an American, but the US economy does affect the world.
the DOW has dropped 2,000 points since this thread began, and the recession has just begun.
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So when is this crash gonna happen? The holidays have come and gone and no crash yet.
serious question: did you expect the stock market to go straight to zero after i started this thread ? ???
the PPT has a huge impact on slowing down the capitulation.
it's called a slow bleed. ;)
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the PPT has a huge impact on slowing down the capitulation.
Once again a main reason why this medicine is more dangerous than the disease :(
Business cycle, it's basically the only surviving part of nature we have within our post industrialized economy, and what do we do? Disrupt it.
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Once again a main reason why this medicine is more dangerous than the disease :(
Business cycle, it's basically the only surviving part of nature we have within our post industrialized economy, and what do we do? Disrupt it.
they're just slowing down the inevitable.
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this must be a joke. you're kidding right ?
if not, the DOW has dropped 2,000 points since this thread began, and the recession has just begun.
stick around and learn "observant one". ???
No. Everybody knows that the US economy is in bad shape at the moment, but it's not the first time. Mine is a very simple question. Has the crash that you predicted by the end of the holidays, if not sooner, already taken place? Is the US already in a recession?
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serious question: did you expect the stock market to go straight to zero after i started this thread ? ???
the PPT has a huge impact on slowing down the capitulation.
it's called a slow bleed. ;)
You predicted "a crash" by the end of the holidays if not sooner. It's February now. Define crash.
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No. Everybody knows that the US economy is in bad shape at the moment, but it's not the first time. Mine is a very simple question. Has the crash that you predicted by the end of the holidays, if not sooner, already taken place? Is the US already in a recession?
Yes, we have been in a recession for some time now, because the government uses 2-3% for yearly inflation, when the reality is that inflation is running at 10-11%
We have been running on fumes for awhile.
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LOCO. Re-read stormshadows post up about 8-9 on top of this one. In the past when the market dropped and inflation was high, it was recoverable, because there was amiddle class who had options to get out.
(For instance there was a time when a family lived on one income and paid all the bills. Well to get ahead the other spouse started working and there was extra money, so home prices rose as well as goods. Well as time went on you had both spouses in debt with tax loads heaviar) There are other examples too.
The last hoorah to flood the market with money was the false equity in homes had everyone making new debts......(hopefully some smart ones paid off)
Now a stimulus package has no affect....like kicking a dead horse........the cost of healthcare, homes and goods are way above what the average person has. And the point is the average (middleclass) now has no way to obtain funds to get the economy going again.
The fix for this is for a huge price correction to happen in all feilds.............peopl e will fight this as they think their neighbors house should go down but not theirs...........too bad. 8)
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Every time the economy enters a bad cycles, the doomsdayers come out of the cracks. You hear it every time "this time it's different". A year and a half later the economy cycles back in the other direction and the dow makes new highs. It's never not happened and this time is no different. If the economy can bounce back from 9-11, it can certaily bounce back from this. It always has and always will. So stop with the "this time it's different". 5 years from now we'll be in another bad part of the cycle for some reason we don't even know yet.
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LOCO. Re-read stormshadows post up about 8-9 on top of this one. In the past when the market dropped and inflation was high, it was recoverable, because there was amiddle class who had options to get out.
(For instance there was a time when a family lived on one income and paid all the bills. Well to get ahead the other spouse started working and there was extra money, so home prices rose as well as goods. Well as time went on you had both spouses in debt with tax loads heaviar) There are other examples too.
The last hoorah to flood the market with money was the false equity in homes had everyone making new debts......(hopefully some smart ones paid off)
Now a stimulus package has no affect....like kicking a dead horse........the cost of healthcare, homes and goods are way above what the average person has. And the point is the average (middleclass) now has no way to obtain funds to get the economy going again.
The fix for this is for a huge price correction to happen in all feilds.............peopl e will fight this as they think their neighbors house should go down but not theirs...........too bad. 8)
Thanks stormshadow and War-Horse! So you are saying that the market has not crashed yet, but for the reasons stated above, it will inevitably crash within months?
Also, are you saying that once it crashes, for the reasons stated above, it will not recover like it did in 1987?
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Every time the economy enters a bad cycles, the doomsdayers come out of the cracks. You hear it every time "this time it's different". A year and a half later the economy cycles back in the other direction and the dow makes new highs. It's never not happened and this time is no different. If the economy can bounce back from 9-11, it can certaily bounce back from this. It always has and always will. So stop with the "this time it's different". 5 years from now we'll be in another bad part of the cycle for some reason we don't even know yet.
Went right over you , didnt it. Im listing reasons why it could be overcome. We always had a way out by raising incomes or other.
How will we get out this time? Borrow more?? NO, there is a tightening of credit standards now. What will the fed do??? Borrow more money?? Then inflation rises even higher.
This is not a sky is falling thread......looking for sound intelligent answers, not a random "We will be okay, we always have" shit.
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the problem is is that there no other bubble to latch onto. so this seems to be very real.
don't be so naive
Believe what you want. the one thing we do know is that it has bounced back every other time. How can I be naive when what I say has been true every time. Your prediction of a lack of a bounceback at some point has never happened. But in your defense, your guess is as good as any.
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Thanks stormshadow and War-Horse! So you are saying that the market has not crashed yet, but for the reasons stated above, it will inevitably crash within months?
Also, are you saying that once it crashes, for the reasons stated above, it will not recover like it did in 1987?
I think the word crash is too strong. More like de-flate, like a slow leak in a tire.
Being an american i no way in hell want this to happen, but we must look at the whole picture and prepare for these things as the signs have pointed to.
Of course we will recover, but it puts us in a prime time to be attacked by other govts when we are operating at 60% in a recession/depression.
I NEVER want us to look weak....we must be careful. NT started this thread to give you a heads up on any investments backed by the stock market or other.
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the problem is is that there no other bubble to latch onto. so this seems to be very real.
don't be so naive
Believe what you want. the one thing we do know is that it has bounced back every other time. How can I be naive when what I say has been true every time. Your prediction of a lack of a bounceback at some point has never happened.
this is a credit bubble, with a collapsing dollar. what could possibly be the next bubble? I'm not optimistic.
it's bounced back because of these stimulus packages. all of this stimuli is not correcting the system. the system is screwed. there is only so much they can do.
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Thanks stormshadow and War-Horse! So you are saying that the market has not crashed yet, but for the reasons stated above, it will inevitably crash within months?
Also, are you saying that once it crashes, for the reasons stated above, it will not recover like it did in 1987?
Fact: We have only been off the international gold standard for 37 years (ONE GENERATION !!). Very short period of time, and look at the damage we have done with no standard to secure the currency.
Nobody knows the time period, but as I hope I've explained, the way our monetary system and government operate is NOT sustainable.
The biggest factor (IMO) is our ability to borrow, and/or steal resources from other countries (oil). If we can continue to borrow/steal then we will have business as usual. However, there is a point where the bank (foreign investors) will realize that our government has way more debt than it can handle and they won't lend us anymore, or countries will get fed up with our foreign policy. After that, the only choice is to print even more money, and the system will implode shortly thereafter.
Bush did not have to work hard to double our debt from 4.5 to 9 trillion. The bigger the numbers get, the faster it climbs.
We are at the point now where it is impossible to balance the yearly budget and our national debt will never decrease. That is the reality of a debt based currency, the only way to grow is to incur more debt, and the only way to make your debt service is to grow... See the problem?
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Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. recession is now an even bet as job losses and the housing contraction jeopardize the longest- ever expansion in consumer spending, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
``We're seeing a real squeeze on the consumer,'' said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York, the world's largest reinsurer. ``We're in, or on the brink of, a recession. The Fed will keep cutting rates to help it be a short and shallow one.''
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, will grow at a 1 percent annual rate from January through March, half the previous quarter's gain and the smallest since 2001. The last time spending dropped was in 1991.
`Cusp of a Recession'
``We're on the cusp of a recession,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Support from the labor market is starting to erode. The consumer is definitely in for a period of weakness.''
The economy lost 17,000 jobs in January, the first drop in more than four years. The unemployment rate will gradually rise to 5.2 percent by the second quarter of 2008, according to the survey median, from last month's 4.9 percent.
`Drying Up'
``If the job market is drying up, which seems to be the case, consumers have nothing going for them,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York.
``It is a difficult retail environment out there, and I expect it will be going forward,'' Terry Lundgren, chief executive officer of Macy's Inc., the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain, said this week. The retailer cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast and said it will eliminate 2,300 jobs.
Worsening Housing Scene
Meanwhile, the housing industry is bracing for even worse times ahead. The National Association of Realtors yesterday cut its 2008 forecast for sales of previously owned and new homes.
In a sign the slowdown is spreading beyond housing, service industries unexpectedly contracted in January at the fastest pace since the 2001 recession, a report from the Institute for Supply Management showed on Feb. 5. U.S. stocks tumbled the most in 11 months that day. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is down for three consecutive months, the longest losing streak since 2003.
guys, think about it, the dot.com bubble ONLY accounted for 15% of our nations GDP and the stock market was hit hard with loses when the bubble finally burst in 2000. tech stocks have still not recovered in 8 yrs. Nasdaq in 2000 = 5,050, Nasdaq in 2008 = 2,293.
the current consumer bubble spurred on by incoherent lending practices in housing, accounts for 70% of our nations GDP.
15% vs 70% of GDP.
you do the math.
NT
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Congress on Thursday passed a $152 billion economic stimulus package.
"This plan is robust, broad-based, timely, and it will be effective," Bush said in a statement released by the White House. "This bill will help to stimulate consumer spending."
The bill amounts to about 1% of U.S. gross domestic product.
The plan would give tax rebates of up to $1,200 for households.
bush is hoping to get americans to spend our way out of this recession with money borrowed from china. ::)
mark my words.......it won't work.
Hahaha Bush is just hoping to hold the titanic up until he gets out of office, and blame the next administration.
Bush will go down in history as the man that ruined America....
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i agree, bush is an embarrassment to this country. his ability to get elected 2X doesn't shed a positive light on the american voter's judgement. ???
dumb as a bag of rocks !
If some of the posts by certain members on this board are a reflection of the rest of america's views on things, we're all fucked.
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If some of the posts by certain members on this board are a reflection of the rest of america's views on things, we're all fucked.
That Bush is really not fit for the job is (painfully) obvious at this point. Some people are unable to bring themselves to think that an American president can be a real dumb fuck (and viceversa). Bush is dumbd and took presidential dumbness up a few hundred notches. I think the powers-that-be have noticed how American complacency with a dumb president has been eroding for a while.
Finding a substitute for Geogie boy gonna be haad tho.
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Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Group of Seven policy makers said the U.S. economy may slow further, eroding global growth, and officials forecast more financial-market turmoil.
``Downside risks still persist, which include further deterioration of the U.S. residential housing markets'' and tighter credit conditions, G-7 finance ministers and central bankers said in a statement in Tokyo yesterday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said ``we should expect continued volatility'' in markets as risk is repriced.
NT
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I'm still up 7.7% this year... by instinctively doing the exact opposite of all you said.
I guess nobody really needs your advice afterall, my sweet AOL user.
Would you like me to post who you really are and see how things come together? :-* :-* :-*
::)
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I'm still up 7.7% this year... by instinctively doing the exact opposite of all you said.
I guess nobody really needs your advice afterall, my sweet AOL user.
Would you like me to post who you really are and see how things come together? :-* :-* :-*
Why do you feel the need to prove yourself, Alex? Why not start youre own thread on economics and see if it hits this many pages.
This isnt the Y board. ::)
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Why do you feel the need to prove yourself, Alex? Why not start youre own thread on economics and see if it hits this many pages.
This isnt the Y board. ::)
Have you ever seen what he looks like?
People that ugly or with a body that deformed usually try to overcompinsate in other area's, like bragging about how much they make, or buying obtuse vehicles like Hummers that scream, "look at me!, look at me!."
He's looking for acceptance, poor guy. I kinda feel sorry for him.
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Have you ever seen what he looks like?
People that ugly or with a body that deformed usually try to overcompinsate in other area's, like bragging about how much they make, or buying obtuse vehicles like Hummers that scream, "look at me!, look at me!."
He's looking for acceptance, poor guy. I kinda feel sorry for him.
He is desperate, kinda like Trab..... On the Y board i guess that gets you attention.
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I'm still up 7.7% this year... by instinctively doing the exact opposite of all you said.
I guess nobody really needs your advice afterall, my sweet AOL user.
Would you like me to post who you really are and see how things come together? :-* :-* :-*
Nobody cares dude.
Go back to the gossip board and whore out your pics for attention.
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expose what alex ? the AOL account you're referring to is MY DEAD BROTHERS account. he was a physician who died of a massive heart attack not very long ago. i continue to utilize his account to keep his memory alive. alex, i pray you never lose a younger sibling, cause it really sucks. >:(
RIP my brother, we love you dearly and miss you immensely. :'(
My condolences, to you and yours, NT..
NT
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expose what alex ? the AOL account you're referring to is MY DEAD BROTHERS account. he was a physician who died of a massive heart attack not very long ago. i continue to utilize his account to keep his memory alive. alex, i pray you never lose a younger sibling, cause it really sucks. >:(
RIP my brother, we love you dearly and miss you immensely. :'(
NT
rip
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Data to keep stocks on edge with recession looming
Retail sales likely to highlight consumer woes.
MarketWatch Feb. 9, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Investors will closely monitor data next week, given concerns that a recession might already be at hand, while a renewed surge in commodities prices is raising concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to continue cutting interest rates to boost the economy.
"Anything that points to an economy that is [decelerating] is going to get a reaction," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of the U.S. equity group at Deutsche Bank.
Stocks plunged on Tuesday, with the Dow industrials tumbling to their biggest drop in nearly a year, after news that the service sector, which constitutes 70% of the U.S. economy, contracted in January and signaled that a recession may be taking hold.
NT
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Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers fell in January for a second month, signaling the biggest part of the economy may be starting to stumble, economists said before reports this week.
Purchases dropped 0.3 percent after decreasing 0.4 percent in December, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of a Feb. 13 report from the Commerce Department. Other reports may show factory production weakened.
NT
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Anybody here in forex trading?
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it's about time, been preaching this since Nov.
NT
Poll: Majority of people believe recession underway
By John Gress, Reuters
WASHINGTON — Empty homes and for-sale signs clutter neighborhoods. You've lost your job or know someone who has. Your paycheck and nest egg are taking a hit.
Could the country be in recession?Sixty-one percent of the public believes the economy is now suffering through its first recession since 2001, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
The fallout from a depressed housing market and a credit crunch nearly caused the economy to stall in the final three months of last year. Some experts, like the majority of people questioned in the poll, say the economy actually may be shrinking now. The worry is that consumers and businesses will hunker down further and pull back spending, sending the economy into a tailspin.
NT
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it's about time, been preaching this since Nov.
NT
Poll: Majority of people believe recession underway
By John Gress, Reuters
WASHINGTON — Empty homes and for-sale signs clutter neighborhoods. You've lost your job or know someone who has. Your paycheck and nest egg are taking a hit.
Could the country be in recession?Sixty-one percent of the public believes the economy is now suffering through its first recession since 2001, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
The fallout from a depressed housing market and a credit crunch nearly caused the economy to stall in the final three months of last year. Some experts, like the majority of people questioned in the poll, say the economy actually may be shrinking now. The worry is that consumers and businesses will hunker down further and pull back spending, sending the economy into a tailspin.
NT
do you use rss feeds to get such amount of info nt?
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do you use rss feeds to get such amount of info nt?
no, just research.
NT
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Now that this is starting to happen (And i emphasize STARTING) What do you guys think is the way out of this and what kind of time will it take???
Will the dollar continue to plunge?
Wil other nations switch to stronger currencys?
How long will it take for people to have some money available again?
Is it even possible to free up money with tightened credit standards?
How in the world can we regain money if the War is continued?
Most bancruptcys are over medical bills, couldnt we free up currency by eliminating huge amount of bancruptcys..(Taxpayers Money)?
Obviously, lowering interest rates when people have bad or maxed credit wont work......
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guys, this is the biggest problem our country faces. the outsourcing of american jobs.
service economies can not sustain themselves over the long haul. the bush admin. tried to stimulate OUR service economy through housing appreciation......and that failed miserably. his next attempt is handing out free checks, hoping you'll spend it at home depot to stimulate a floundering economy. ::)
NT
(Reuters) - U.S. car maker Chrysler has signed a 4 billion rupee ($101 million) contract with a New Delhi-based car seat maker to source seats for its Jeep Wrangler, an Indian newspaper reported on Sunday.
This was just the beginning of Chrysler's strategy to outsource automobile parts from Southeast Asia and negotiations were on for more such contracts, the Business Line paper said, citing an unnamed senior company official.
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guys, this is the biggest problem our country faces. the outsourcing of american jobs.
service economies can not sustain themselves over the long haul. the bush admin. tried to stimulate OUR service economy through housing appreciation......and that failed miserably. his next attempt is handing out free checks, hoping you'll spend it at home depot to stimulate a floundering economy. ::)
NT
(Reuters) - U.S. car maker Chrysler has signed a 4 billion rupee ($101 million) contract with a New Delhi-based car seat maker to source seats for its Jeep Wrangler, an Indian newspaper reported on Sunday.
This was just the beginning of Chrysler's strategy to outsource automobile parts from Southeast Asia and negotiations were on for more such contracts, the Business Line paper said, citing an unnamed senior company official.
All of this is discussed in the Peter Shiff video posted by MB, if anyone else is interested.
Reading all this makes my blood boil, I have to say it AGAIN but it falls on deaf ears, RON PAUL talked about this problem throughout his campaign and the fucktard that is the average American and the media laughed and ignored him.
I feel sorry for the average person who just isn't aware of whats happening but to all the people that laughed and scorned the people who told us this was coming can go jump off a cliff.
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Yes greed and profit has the production jobs leaving the country. and now were service oriented. All the farmers sold out to developers long ago.
How can we be production oriented again with wages that are 100times some countries.??
Answer: We need to minimize imports/exports to keep our companies here.
We need to price correct the market so people can afford homes.
Keep our jobs here, keep our money here. But of course thats socialism. ::)
If we stay the course, we will be a weaker economy and people, making it easiar for attacks and takeovers..........thats our options.
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Yes greed and profit has the production jobs leaving the country. and now were service oriented. All the farmers sold out to developers long ago.
How can we be production oriented again with wages that are 100times some countries.??
Answer: We need to minimize imports/exports to keep our companies here.
We need to price correct the market so people can afford homes.
Keep our jobs here, keep our money here. But of course thats socialism. ::)
If we stay the course, we will be a weaker economy and people, making it easiar for attacks and takeovers..........thats our options.
agreed w.h.
large corporations are only interested in the bottom line.....cutting costs and raising profit margins. if outsoursing achieves that goal, so be it.
the US can not be production orientated as long as we earn 100X that of a chinese or indian worker. without production we lose the middle class.
middle class = backbone of US economy.
NT
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good article
The Factory Of Factories
How Germany's nimble manufacturers are besting not only their Western rivals, but the Chinese, too.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/91613 (http://www.newsweek.com/id/91613)
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good article
The Factory Of Factories
How Germany's nimble manufacturers are besting not only their Western rivals, but the Chinese, too.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/91613 (http://www.newsweek.com/id/91613)
Nice to see its been done. BMW had to adjust wages 15%, i dont know how that would go over here. People here would rather lose their jobs than take a pay-cut.
Ive seen unions strike to the point where the whole company just up and left the country...............(a good example of above posts) :-\
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Alex=owned.
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actually OVER 20 yrs fatboy. get your facts straight.
meltdown
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Wow, Alex, fat,ugly AND stupid.
Just kill yourself now.
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good article
The Factory Of Factories
How Germany's nimble manufacturers are besting not only their Western rivals, but the Chinese, too.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/91613 (http://www.newsweek.com/id/91613)
Oh well General Clark made them, now all we need is a general to break them.
Nice article, I don't read Newsweek I need to counter aisle shop it some more, lol.
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Hot Pink is definatly your color fag.
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Hot Pink is definatly your color fag.
LMAO ;D That was brutal.
Alex, no one gives a shit how well your doing, for all we know you cashed in a life insurance policy on grandma and went on a spending frenzy.
Buying a hummer means your a sheep who wants attention......the worst investment ever......
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LMAO ;D That was brutal.
Alex, no one gives a shit how well your doing, for all we know you cashed in a life insurance policy on grandma and went on a spending frenzy.
Buying a hummer means your a sheep who wants attention......the worst investment ever......
It's funny how he simply glossed over this comment.
The fact of the matter is, he came into this thread with his "analysis" and it was a complete turd. What a financial genius.
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I'm going to go out on a limb and mak e a prediction.........Ron Paul will be elected president before the year is out. Hells yeah!!!!!!!!
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I'm going to go out on a limb and mak e a prediction.........Ron Paul will be elected president before the year is out. Hells yeah!!!!!!!!
Now your catching on!
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guys, i just couldn't stop laughing at alex's quotes on all things financial.
what an ass clown ! ;D
He got LUCKY by working for a company that went public. Somehow he equates that to financial intelligence.
He reminds me of a skit on "In Living Color" about an Asian guy that teaches people how to get rich.
"My grandfather die, and leave me Tommy Woo, Ten million Dollar! Why can't u do that?"
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Seems like you can't stop thinking about me. :-X
I'm in your head :-* :-* :-* :-*
More to come on tonight's BIG NATION radio show..... stay tuned!
Never heard of it. Republicans only, I'm sure.
My gawd Alex, you got owned so bad in this thread, you're anal stiches will never heal.... :-[
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hahahaha look at these degenerates high fiving each others...
Nobody got owned on anything sweetie; ganging up on a legend and calling 4th grader names ain't it...
Bottom line is I'm young and wealthy and you hate me for it :-* :-*
Keep reading "market advices" on a bodybuilding board :-* :-*
Hello, tatoo, Mr Rork is calling you to fly back to fantasy Island.
Most of page 26 is alex ownage, courtesy of your "Intelligence" ;D
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hahahaha look at these degenerates high fiving each others...
Nobody got owned on anything sweetie; ganging up on a legend and calling 4th grader names ain't it...
Bottom line is I'm young and wealthy and you hate me for it :-* :-*
Keep reading "market advices" on a bodybuilding board :-* :-*
If you are young and wealthy I am happy for you.
Nobody was attacking you for that reason, nor is anyone jealous.
Neurotoxin started a thread for some open discussion, and you came on attacking him.
The comments are in regard to your INCORRECT statements on the market and the economy. You have made it very clear that you have no fucking clue as to what you are talking about.
Then when you are called out and Owned for your incorrect statements you resort to: "Well I'm Young and Rich"
Hope this helps...
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The White House sent a message to Congress that it is not eager to see legislation aimed at greater oversight of financial markets and banks in the wake of the credit squeeze that began last August.
NT
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Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer by assets, fell the most in 20 years in New York trading after its auditor found faulty accounting may have understated losses on some holdings.
So-called credit-default swaps issued by AIG, which protect fixed-income investors against losses, declined by $4.88 billion in value in October and November, four times more than previously disclosed, the company said today in a regulatory filing. AIG's auditors found ``material weakness'' in its accounting for the contracts, and the firm doesn't know what they were worth at the end of 2007, the filing said.
NT
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Seems like I've hurt your little neuro friend 'cause he's been Pming me about it every couple of days since. Shows how much I'm in his "head".
Just fuck off already, you and your Barbie mobile.
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The White House sent a message to Congress that it is not eager to see legislation aimed at greater oversight of financial markets and banks in the wake of the credit squeeze that began last August.
spying on americans is cool....but oversight of financial markets and banks is off limits. ::)
you gotta love this administration ! ;)
NT
LOL, yeah I saw that on Market Watch.
Does the average joe realize this is exactly what spurred the great depression? My guess is yes, they know and they are hurting for it. Only question left to ask now is, does Bush?
New Deal equated to the rich got richer and the poor....well got poorer than dirt.
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Probably a depression coming. Continued fucked up thinking by the feds....will gaurantee it.
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Cash is best. Some commodity traded ETFs will be doing good.
Gas goes down to $65 soon, imo.
Check out your local post office, and see if alot of boxes are for rent if so that is bad. means businesses have either moved or gone out of business, that and people are moving out of the area.
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It's one thing to waste your time, but why do you want to try to waste somebody else's?
Go ahead and engage yourself in that game, and then post your portfolio link here.
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Calm down drama queen.. a "depression" ::)
Hey geniuses, how about putting your little skills to the test? I bet not one single chicken on here is going to join....
http://simulator.investopedia.com/MyPortfolio/default.aspx?gameid=73928
Game name: GETBIGENIUSES pwd: 'getbig'
Let's see who are the real dellusionites. ;D
Hahahaha. Look its Mr....... "But at least im young and wealthy"
Yeah, that solves everything... ::)
Getbigs favorite whore...Alex and his pink Hummer trolling for attention.
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Hahahaha. Look its Mr....... "But at least im young and wealthy"
Yeah, that solves everything... ::)
Getbigs favorite whore...Alex and his pink Hummer trolling for attention.
He's young and wealthy with a nice set of bitch tits...
Every woman's dream
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He's young and wealthy with a nice set of bitch tits...
Every woman's dream
hahaha
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Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and banks representing half the U.S. mortgage market agreed to offer 30-day freezes on foreclosures, acknowledging the need for a stronger response to the worst housing slump in a generation.
``The worst isn't over, the worst is just beginning'' for some borrowers, Paulson said today at a news conference in Washington with Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson. The housing correction ``is not over; it's going to take longer,'' he said.
--------
NT
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Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts last month have failed to lower borrowing costs for many companies and households, increasing the chance of further reductions from the central bank.
by further lowering interest rates, the Fed will continue fan the inflationary fires as well as devalue the dollar.
NT
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Dow 13,000 - 13,200 is possible with another 50bps cut, before we sell off again.
i still expect to hit 10,000 - 10,500 sometime this year.
12,800 - 12,900 on the upside will be attempted.......and fail. we will fall back to the 11,600 area, if not lower.
NT
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LOL. One thing Ive learned is you never know who youre talking to behind the computer screen.. ;D
Oh geez, what is the fed gonna do when they offer free money and no one can take it because of maxed out credit and tightened standards.
Whats funny is the real estate companies are putting radio advertisments for people to buy because prices are low on distressed properties. I have to laugh because anyone who buys now is gonna regret it, as prices will go much lower this year!!! 8)
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Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Industrial production in the U.S. rose in January, led by higher utility output that was pushed up by colder-than-normal temperatures, a survey of economists indicated before a report today.
Some economists, such as Ethan Harris at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, estimate that manufacturing, which makes up four-fifths of industrial output, fell as the economy slowed.
``We expect another lackluster month for production in January,'' said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado.
NT
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Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The world's banks ``remain at risk'' of $120 billion in additional writedowns should the monoline insurance crisis worsen, UBS AG said.
``Banks have made progress in credit-market related writedowns,'' London-based UBS analyst Philip Finch said in a note to investors today. ``But more are expected,'' he added.
Writedowns for CDO and subprime related losses already total $150 billion and that could rise by a further $120 billion, Finch estimated. ``Risks are rising and spreading and liquidity conditions are still far from normal,'' the note said.
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Feb. 13, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales were better than expected in January on higher auto and gasoline sales, providing a glimmer of light in the tough economic environment.
But many economists warned it might be a false dawn.
However, excluding autos and gas, sales were flat in the month.
guys.....
when our Government is dependent on gasoline sales to pump up retail sales numbers........please beware.
with Gasoline station sales up 23%, and non-store retailers (home oil delivery) up 10.6%, the surprise gains were all energy/inflation related. [/b]
Commerce reports a 0.6% rise in car sales January, while the vehicle manufacturers themselves reported a 6.3% drop in unit sales. [/u]
who do you believe ?
NT
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What were fixing to see is new regulations put in place so the fed can start buying securities, and stocks....to keep a overevaluation going so the real 'net' does not drop so low.
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Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economy is on the verge of its first recession in six years as falling home values hurt consumer spending.
``We are clearly on the edge,'' Greenspan told a group of energy-industry executives yesterday at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates' 27th annual CERAWeek conference in Houston. He reiterated comments from last month that the odds of an economic contraction are ``50 percent or better
NT
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Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in New York unexpectedly contracted this month for the first time in almost three years as new orders and shipments declined.
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Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose more than forecast in January, pushing the increase for the last 12 months to a record, led by rising costs for energy products and food.
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What were fixing to see is new regulations put in place so the fed can start buying securities, and stocks....to keep a overevaluation going so the real 'net' does not drop so low.
So lets see whats happening.....The fed wants to buy stocks to keep the numbers up on the indexes, to prevent panic and a full scale depression.
Now, we know the fed has NO MONEY except for what it can steal from the taxpayers, and what it can print out of thin air, and what it can borrow from other countries. All of these options will only prolong and deepen the coming recession/ depression, making it even worse for the economy.
HAHAHA what eternal idots this admin is!!! A monkey could run this show better than these asses.
I am forced to believe that they are INTENTIONALLY Wrecking the american economy to put in a New World Order.....theres no other explanation for this stupidity!!! >:(
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Feb. 15, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices rose Friday, putting yields under pressure, as investors fled to the safety of government debt on rekindled worries about the U.S. economy and the credit markets.
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CALABASAS, Calif. (Reuters) — Countrywide Financial (CFC), the nation's largest mortgage lender, said Friday that delinquencies and foreclosures rose in January to the highest on record, reflecting the nation's deepening housing and credit crunch.
guys, sorry for all the bad news, but it is what it is.
NT
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Citigroup Fund Bars Exit By Investors.
Wall Street Journal
2/15/08
Citigroup Inc. has barred investors in one of its hedge funds from withdrawing their money, another black eye for the financial behemoth's troubled foray into new types of investments.
guys, the handwriting is on the wall.
NT
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So lets see whats happening.....The fed wants to buy stocks to keep the numbers up on the indexes, to prevent panic and a full scale depression.Now, we know the fed has NO MONEY except for what it can steal from the taxpayers, and what it can print out of thin air, and what it can borrow from other countries. All of these options will only prolong and deepen the coming recession/ depression, making it even worse for the economy.
what eternal idots this admin is!!! A monkey could run this show better than these asses.
i believe your assessment is correct. ;D
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i believe your assessment is correct. ;D
LOL.. I just cant wait for tomorrow. ;D
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remember the term stagflation. it's coming.........
Fri Feb 15, 2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A series of bleak economic reports on Friday showed the mood of American consumers deteriorating in February to a point that has usually signaled recession, while factory activity in New York state suffered its biggest drop on record.
Complicating worries about an economic downturn, data suggesting bubbling price pressures, raised the possibility of a scenario of simultaneously slowing growth and rising inflation indicate "stagflation."
NT
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Fri Feb 15, 2008
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A series of bleak economic reports on Friday showed the mood of American consumers deteriorating in February to a point that has usually signaled recession, while factory activity in New York state suffered its biggest drop on record.
Complicating worries about an economic downturn, data suggesting bubbling price pressures, raised the possibility of a scenario of simultaneously slowing growth and rising inflation indicate "stagflation."
It just keeps getting better.
NT
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12,800 - 12,900 on the upside will be attempted.......and fail.
NT
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guys, just for laughs. ;D
2/19/08
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures surged more than $4 Tuesday, to surpass the $100 a barrel mark for the second time this year, as concerns that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may cut production boosted prices.
I assumed he knew what he was talking about because he had a Hummer and takes Steriods.
Not to mention he posts on getbig
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Hahahahah look at these obsessed tweeebs still riding my tailcoats. I love it.
Fuck, you're stupid.
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Hahahahah look at these obsessed tweeebs still riding my tailcoats. I love it.
Your posts will go down in history as standard fox news reports.... ;D
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Your posts will go down in history as standard fox news reports.... ;D
hahaha
nice
hahaaha
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Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Housing starts in the U.S. remained near the lowest level since 1991 in January, a sign the deepest real-estate recession in a quarter-century will weigh on the economy for a third year, economists said before a report today. :o
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Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced to a record $101.32 barrel in New York on speculation U.S. interest rate cuts will bolster fuel consumption.
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Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil advanced to a record $101.32 barrel in New York on speculation U.S. interest rate cuts will bolster fuel consumption.
Maybe Alex2300lbs has numerical dyslexia prediction capabilities and to him, $100.00 looks like $70.00?
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Hahahaha non stop riding my tailcoats.. I just love how deep I'm in your little wanna be traders heads.
Point is, right or wrong for predictions, I'm the only one on here who can prove he's successful :-* :-*
Lead by the big dogg.
Clueless.
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Alex, your statement that oil is in a bubble is actually true... :o It will come crashing down to 40.00 a barrel in a year or two....
Hows life at BIGNATION????
P.S. You have to admit that bindare made you laugh saying "Alex2300lbs"
We're just gifted genetic monsters.. ;D
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Jobless claims fall by 9,000
"WASHINGTON - The number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the larger-than-expected drop was seen as only a temporary improvement. "
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/jobless_claims
Just a bit of good news, among all the bad news. :-\
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Death of stocks? Reports are greatly exaggerated
"Bonds will occasionally outperform the stock market in the short run, but over the long haul, stocks still tend to come out on top. So don’t lose faith in your equities, says Money Magazine’s Walter Updegrave."
http://asktheexpert.blogs.money.cnn.com/2008/02/21/death-of-stocks-reports-are-greatly-exaggerated/
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US stocks open higher;investors bet on fresh rate cuts
"NEW YORK: US stock markets opened higher on Thursday as investors bet that lackluster economic news will force the Federal Reserve to continuing cutting interest rates."
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_News/US_stocks_open_higher/articleshow/2802364.cms
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US stocks open higher;investors bet on fresh rate cuts
"NEW YORK: US stock markets opened higher on Thursday as investors bet that lackluster economic news will force the Federal Reserve to continuing cutting interest rates."
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the second time this week, led by energy and industrial shares, after a worse- than-forecast manufacturing report and higher stockpiles of oil spurred concern the economy has fallen into a recession.
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Jobless claims fall by 9,000
Just a bit of good news, among all the bad news. :-\
The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 161.93, or 1.3 percent, to 12,265.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 24.61, or 1.1 percent, to 2,302.49. About four stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
``The consensus is for economic growth to get weaker,
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Jobless claims fall by 9,000 [/b]
"WASHINGTON - The number of newly laid off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the larger-than-expected drop was seen as only a temporary improvement. "
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/jobless_claims
Just a bit of good news, among all the bad news. :-\
Unfortunatly the 9000 workers is offset by california's not being able to register their numbers...(For some reason) Therefore its another rise in unemployment workers after all is said and done this time.. :-\
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Dr. Paul will be questioning Federal Reserve Board Chairman "helicopter" Ben Bernanke next week, Feb 27/08:
Washington, DC – Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services today announced that the committee will hold two days of hearings to examine the conduct of monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy. A panel of economists will address these issues during the first day of hearings. The second day of hearings will be dedicated to the semi-annual testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
On February 20, 2008, the Federal Reserve joined other forecasters in predicting slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and an elevated rate of inflation for the U.S. economy. In light of these forecasts, the hearings will focus on the appropriateness of monetary policy over the past six months and consider what further actions might be taken.
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Dr. Paul will be questioning Federal Reserve Board Chairman "helicopter" Ben Bernanke next week, Feb 27/08:
Washington, DC – Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services today announced that the committee will hold two days of hearings to examine the conduct of monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy. A panel of economists will address these issues during the first day of hearings. The second day of hearings will be dedicated to the semi-annual testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
On February 20, 2008, the Federal Reserve joined other forecasters in predicting slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and an elevated rate of inflation for the U.S. economy. In light of these forecasts, the hearings will focus on the appropriateness of monetary policy over the past six months and consider what further actions might be taken.
Hahahaha.........Benanke just does as the administration says, and someday may have to take the bullet for it...........just another bush fuck-up. 8)
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U.S. wholesale prices surged in January and core inflation also climbed above expectations, according to more data revealing price pressures amid the economic slowdown.
The producer price index for finished goods rose 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.3% decrease in December, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Originally, prices in December were estimated down 0.1%.
The core index, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.4% last month, seasonally adjusted. It rose 0.2% in December.
Wall Street expected smaller price increases.....
In the 12 months ending in January, prices climbed 7.4% on an unadjusted basis. In the 12 months ending in December, prices were up 6.3%. The 7.4% climb is the largest since 7.5% in October 1981.
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation at the wholesale level soared in January, pushed higher by rising costs for food, energy and medicine. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 16 years.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that wholesale prices rose 1 percent last month, more than double the 0.4 percent increase that economists had been expecting.
The worse-than-expected performance was certain to capture attention at the Federal Reserve, which has chosen to combat a threatened recession by aggressively cutting interest rates in the belief that weaker economic growth will keep a lid on prices.
But the combination of rising inflation and weaker growth raises the threat of "stagflation," the economic malady that plagued the country through the 1970s, when a series of oil shocks left households battered by the twin problems of stagnant growth and rising prices.
The 1 percent jump in wholesale prices followed a 0.3 percent decline in December and was the biggest one-month increase since a 2.6 percent increase in November. That gain had been driven by sharply higher energy costs.
With the January jump, wholesale prices have risen over the past 12 months by 7.5 percent, the fastest increase since the fall of 1981, when the country was in a deep recession.
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Wow. How could people not have known that the hyper prices were not sustainable? I remember thinking that all these guys buying new boats and trucks and r.v,s, still, were only making 12-15 dollars an hour, so i knew something shitty was going to come down...
False money is all around us and 12 billion a month is going to Iraq when it could be put into production here to help the economy.
For more help read my sig... :-\
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Wow. How could people not have known that the hyper prices were not sustainable? I remember thinking that all these guys buying new boats and trucks and r.v,s, still, were only making 12-15 dollars an hour, so i knew something shitty was going to come down...
False money is all around us and 12 billion a month is going to Iraq when it could be put into production here to help the economy.
For more help read my sig... :-\
The government doesn not need to put that 12 billion back into the economy, they need to never take it out of the economy in the first place.
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Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record below $1.52 per euro, extending its three-day rout to 2.5 percent, as a cooling economy fueled bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates through at least twice more.
The U.S. currency also approached a 2 1/2-year low versus the yen yesterday and dropped to a record against the Swiss franc, deepening its losses after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said it was ``fair'' to say it was tougher for the bank to respond now than to the recession of 2001.
``There is very real concern that there is a possibility of a dollar crisis,'' said Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. ``I don't use the word crisis lightly; we are in uncharted territory for the dollar, especially against the euro.''
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Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record below $1.52 per euro, extending its three-day rout to 2.5 percent, as a cooling economy fueled bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates through at least twice more.
The U.S. currency also approached a 2 1/2-year low versus the yen yesterday and dropped to a record against the Swiss franc, deepening its losses after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said it was ``fair'' to say it was tougher for the bank to respond now than to the recession of 2001.
``There is very real concern that there is a possibility of a dollar crisis,'' said Paul Chertkow, head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. ``I don't use the word crisis lightly; we are in uncharted territory for the dollar, especially against the euro.''
240, Has stated that the dollar is safe, and will not be replaced with other currency. I beg to differ. If enough countries get together and are tired of losses, then it will truly happen. And our wealth of oil on conversion of currency, could take trillions of dollars out of oil companies...
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240, Has stated that the dollar is safe, and will not be replaced with other currency. I beg to differ. If enough countries get together and are tired of losses, then it will truly happen. And our wealth of oil on conversion of currency, could take trillions of dollars out of oil companies...
many countries have already begun shifting out of the greenback due to it's precipitous fall under under george w bush.
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Bernanke: 'Stagflation' fears overblown
Associated Press
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress today that the nation is "not anywhere near" the dangerous stagflation situation that prevailed in the 1970s.
With the economy slowing and inflation rising, fears have grown that the country could be headed for the dreaded twin evils of stagnant growth and rising prices known as "stagflation."
"I don't anticipate stagflation," Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee.
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guys, this is the same bernanke who "didn't anticipate" the 08 recession. he lied about the recession and now he's lying about stagflation.
NT
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Yeah, Bernanke's shaking voice when he answers questions really makes me feel good about the future of the economy.
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holy crap, the "I don't anticipate" can't be much more vague than that.
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ron paul interview from today
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guys, 12,800 has been my upside target (as many of you already know). after hitting 12,756 recently, i now expect the market to test the Jan low of 11,600.
NT
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ron paul interview from today
good video MB !
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MB, thanks for the video.
Why don't our current leaders listen more. Stop the f-cking governement spending! Stop borrowing from other countries. Stop shipping jobs overseas so big corporate execs alone can make more $. Hillary & Obama want to increase funding for just about every domestic program and McCain is going to keep spending more in Iraq longer. Someone needs to stop this insane government spending. I wish more people would listen to Ron Paul. He makes a lot of sense! No, they all just want to spend our tax dollars on programs that are inefficient and wars that we shouldn't have entered.
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Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation eroded gains in U.S. consumer spending and a gauge of business sentiment fell to the lowest level in more than six years, pushing the economy toward a recession.
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MB, thanks for the video.
Why don't our current leaders listen more. Stop the f-cking governement spending! Stop borrowing from other countries. Stop shipping jobs overseas so big corporate execs alone can make more $. Hillary & Obama want to increase funding for just about every domestic program and McCain is going to keep spending more in Iraq longer. Someone needs to stop this insane government spending. I wish more people would listen to Ron Paul. He makes a lot of sense! No, they all just want to spend our tax dollars on programs that are inefficient and wars that we shouldn't have entered.
Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to the lowest level in three years versus the yen and touched the weakest ever against the euro on signs the Federal Reserve sees a cheaper dollar as helping the U.S. economy.
guys, the fed is fvcking clueless.
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There is more evidence that the U.S. economy is still struggling. Consumer spending, a primary engine for economic growth, was stagnant in January, the Commerce Department announced today. After adjusting for inflation, spending went up last month, 0.4 percent, basically flat. Excluding the disruptions from Hurricane Katrina, it's the weakest spending figure since 2001.
Spending is down, even though prices for consumer goods continue rising, forcing Americans to struggle more to make ends meet.
Most of the price increases can be traced back to the cost of oil, which triggered the recent spike in gas and food prices.
Overnight, crude oil prices briefly crossed the $103-a-barrel threshold, a new intra-day record. This week the national average price for gasoline hit $3.16 per gallon.
And the dollar continues to struggle. As markets opened today, the dollar hit record lows against the euro, Swiss franc and a basket of currencies.
A Commerce Department report released Thursday showed economic growth slowed to just six percent in the last quarter of 2007. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones fell 112 points, along with other Wall Street indices that saw losses across the board.
Together, these economic indicators demonstrate a trend that has economists worried about stagflation, or simultaneous inflation and recession, and Americans will be more worried about their bottom line.
Higher gas prices always force grocery prices higher. The rising cost of wheat, due to a global shortage, has also driven up the cost of many food products, especially bread, which is up 12 percent compared to this time last year, according to the Department of Labor Statistics.
"Consumers have really been hit from all angles right now. We've seen gas that may creep upwards of $4 a gallon come spring and in the supermarkets, staples like meat and eggs and milk, those are also creeping upwards, making consumers have to make tough decisions about spending," said "Good Morning America" contributor Wendy Bounds.
Even President Bush expressed surprise at a news conference Thursday when a reporter told him that some analysts were predicting $4-per-gallon gasoline. "That's interesting. I hadn't heard that," Bush responded. DUH!
The White House Friday clarified that statement, saying the President was expressing his view that he did not think gas prices were going to go that high.
In the last year, the price of eggs has shot up 40 percent, compared with this time last year. The price of milk rose 26 percent over the same period. Other staple items such as spaghetti are up 18 percent, and ground beef up close to 7 percent.
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12,800 - 12,900 on the upside will be attempted.......and fail. we will fall back to the 11,600 area, if not lower.
NT
guys as you can see, my call on the market was 100% dead-on....again. 12,800 was my upside rally number before the next wave of selling. every "rally" you see are SUCKER RALLIES.
please DO NOT get caught in this market.
i will advise GBers when i see the market turning around. until then, STAY OUT !
NT
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MarketWatch
Feb. 29, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks plunged on Friday, diving toward declines for both the week and the month of February after massive losses by American International Group Inc. shook Wall Street and poor results from Dell Inc. rocked the tech sector.
"We had a trainload of bad news; they couldn't keep the bad news coming fast enough, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
The Dow fell 315 points on Friday to 12,266.
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guys.....
March 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell this week, capping the fourth-straight monthly decline, after analysts boosted estimates for losses at banks and speculation increased that rising unemployment and lower manufacturing are pushing the economy into recession.
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Damn, NT. Youre batting a 1000....... 8)
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Damn, NT. Youre batting a 1000....... 8)
ok guys it's back to work ! please continue to avoid putting ANY money into this market. any and all rallies will be sold off.
i'll keep you guys abreast of what's happening on the street. until then........stay in cash.
NT
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guys.......
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Spending on U.S. building projects in January fell by the most in 14 years as the housing slump worsened and construction slowed on hotels and highways.
NT
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my market call was long before buffett.
OMAHA, Nebraska (March 3) - Billionaire Warren Buffett said Monday that the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession even if it hasn't met the technical definition of one yet.
NT
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im not reading through this whole thread but precious metals are where its at.
what is your opinion on this neurotoxin ?
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im not reading through this whole thread but precious metals are where its at.
what is your opinion on this neurotoxin ?
you're correct. as a hedge against inflation, precious metals are the play.
NT
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guys, bernanke is wedged in a corner and is now begging banks to forgive mortgage debt. as i stated in the beginning of this thread, bush's failed policies are destroying this country and the stock market reflects that point.
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell again, led by financial shares, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urged banks to write down more mortgage debt and analysts cut earnings forecasts for Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
NT
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Ok, so your a broker or some kind of stock guy. I don't know much about stocks exept it would scare the hell out of me if I had to depend on it. As far as I'm concerned real estate is the safest bet.
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gbers........i've preached since Nov. to stay out of this market. my opinion is unchanged. when the time is right, i'll advise on where to enter.... including the best sectors. i'll keep you guys informed. ;)
March 4, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks fell for a fourth session Tuesday, with major indexes down about 1%, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he expects more home foreclosures and Intel Corp. reduced its outlook, both serving as reminders of a sputtering economy.
"Everybody says 'not to worry,' but the market trend is telling you, 'you should be scared to death,'" said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical.
NT
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gbers.....the perfect storm created by george w. bush is upon us.
March 4, 2008
WASHINGTON — The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, urged mortgage lenders and investors on Tuesday to reduce the principal on loans for many people whose homes are no longer worth as much as the amount they still have to repay.
Relief for Homeowners Is Given to a Relative Few Noting that delinquency and foreclosure rates have soared over the last year, and that housing prices have not stopped falling, the Fed chairman warned that efforts by the government and by industry to prevent foreclosures had not gone far enough.
NT
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Joe, Big losses will take place on any real estate that has been mortgaged within the last 2 years. Prices will keep falling and you will lose a ton of equity.....prepare for at least a 40% drop in cali before it bottoms out.
You said you have the bottom of your house leased out to make the payment, you should prepare for them to default soon as the price of fuel and goods rises.
If anyone had a home before the bubble and was smart enough to not pull false equity out then they wil be okay, most likely.
NT has been on the money each time,and has owned quite a few smartasses in this thread.
I actually dont expect the economy to recover this time, as it was intentionally dumped into the toilet for a bigger purpose of globalization.
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There is some crazy shit going on.
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There is some crazy shit going on.
"I bought google for $700 last month"
just a nice quote i came across
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Joe, Big losses will take place on any real estate that has been mortgaged within the last 2 years. Prices will keep falling and you will lose a ton of equity.....prepare for at least a 40% drop in cali before it bottoms out.
You said you have the bottom of your house leased out to make the payment, you should prepare for them to default soon as the price of fuel and goods rises.
If anyone had a home before the bubble and was smart enough to not pull false equity out then they wil be okay, most likely.
NT has been on the money each time,and has owned quite a few smartasses in this thread.
I actually dont expect the economy to recover this time, as it was intentionally dumped into the toilet for a bigger purpose of globalization.
Like I said in a previous thread, I baught my house to live in not as an investment. Now, if I baught it to flip, then I would worry. I'm kinda old school and prefer not to take risks or at least limit my risk. Besides, no way in hell property in my area would drop "40%".
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Besides, no way in hell property in my area would drop "40%".
When you live in the ghetto, how can the value get any lower?
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Like I said in a previous thread, I baught my house to live in not as an investment. Now, if I baught it to flip, then I would worry. I'm kinda old school and prefer not to take risks or at least limit my risk. Besides, no way in hell property in my area would drop "40%".
If youre leasers fall thru (Most likely)You'll carry the ball. In march 10million morgatges adjust higher. We're just getting started on the housing crisis. I hope youll be okay tho, everyone who works deserves a home. 8)
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When you live in the ghetto, how can the value get any lower?
Yes, I live in the ghettos of Sunset Beach, I remember one time I had to call the cops on my neighbor because he would start his peice of shit Enzo low rider at 7am on Sunday morning.....and that bitch wife of his would have her limo driver double parked while waiting to take her work.......I tried, but the cops were too scared ::)
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If youre leasers fall thru (Most likely)You'll carry the ball. In march 10million morgatges adjust higher. We're just getting started on the housing crisis. I hope youll be okay tho, everyone who works deserves a home. 8)
Since the markets are down, isn't this the best time to buy? I'm seriously out of the loop when it comes to the stock markets.
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Since the markets are down, isn't this the best time to buy? I'm seriously out of the loop when it comes to the stock markets.
the markets are down (as predicted in Nov.07) but now is not the time to buy. there will be a tremendous buying opportunity down the road...........just not right now.
NT
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gbers......
Productivity Slower in 4th Quarter
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: March 5, 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Worker productivity slowed sharply in the final three months of last year as the economy lost momentum.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that productivity -- the amount an employee produces for every hour on the job -- increased at an annual rate of just 1.9 percent in the October-to-December quarter. That was down considerably from the third quarter's brisk, 6.3 percent growth rate and was the slowest pace since the first quarter of last year.
As productivity growth slowed, labor costs went up.
NT
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gbers........
Report Shows Big Loss in Private-Sector Jobs
By REUTERS
Published: March 5, 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. private employers cut 23,000 jobs in February, a report by a private employment service said on Wednesday
NT
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neurotoxin how do you think the current concentrated short position in the metals will be resolved in the short run ?
do you own any metals why or why not ?
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neurotoxin how do you think the current concentrated short position in the metals will be resolved in the short run ?
do you own any metals why or why not ?
I like to say that precious metals should be an ongoing part of any investment portfolio. Before my cashflow dried up I was spending 10-15% of my passive monthly income to purchase gold, so I was buying 2 oz per month. With the run up in gold I probably would have switched to silver or another metal a couple months ago. I also believe in owning the actual metal, and keeping it in a safe deposit box at the bank.
Again, this would just be a small part of your overall portfolio.
I just sold off a chunk of gold yesterday, because I have every cent tied up in an oil deal, I’m waiting on more credit, and my reserves for this month were getting low.
I would not look at gold as an "investment" I would look at it as an ongoing store of wealth, or converting your fake money into real money.
I value gold, whether it is 200 per ounce, or 1,000. Gold is real money and men have been killing each other for it since the beginning of time, and if you study the history of gold you will see that there is more to holding gold in your portfolio than gambling on its increase in value.
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When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? The more I read the more I'm intrested.........just scared to death of markets. I was originally going to pull a little money out to buy rental prop. We also have a home in Palm Springs that is almost paid for.
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Since the markets are down, isn't this the best time to buy? I'm seriously out of the loop when it comes to the stock markets.
Theres a big push by the realtors association to advertise this. However dont believe it. Prices will continue to drop drastically. We're just starting to see the effects of this crash. So many variables are going to come into play that anyone who buys now will be upside down very soon. The market has to adjust for the false equity put out there, wages couldnt support it............. :-\
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When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? The more I read the more I'm intrested.........just scared to death of markets. I was originally going to pull a little money out to buy rental prop. We also have a home in Palm Springs that is almost paid for.
The stock market is for suckers... seriously. The money is made with IPO's and options. If you are going into the market to buy and sell, you are making a fraction of the money that you could be.
I'll give you an example.
Right now I have just under 400k invested in a private oil fund. My money is secured by oil, several times over. The return is 72% APR.
Compare that to the stock market. You are buying a piece of paper that you THINK is worth more than what you paid for it... What collateral do you have when the value of that stock goes down?
Invest in yourself first, then learn about the real investments.
Private Placements
IPO's
Hedge Funds
Real Estate
Hardmoney Lending
POF Investments
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i would NOT be entering the metals sector at this time. it's overbought and due for a healthy correction.
if you've been in metals the last yr or so, now would be the time to take some profits.
as you know, shorts are entering this sector after the huge run-up.
be careful !
i understand what you are saying but i believe metals will continue to climb. i think theyll repeatedly correct a little fluctuate and climb. and if there is a sharp sell off then look out :o
I also believe in owning the actual metal,
i agree
I would not look at gold as an "investment" I would look at it as an ongoing store of wealth, or converting your fake money into real money.
I value gold, whether it is 200 per ounce, or 1,000. Gold is real money and men have been killing each other for it since the beginning of time, and if you study the history of gold you will see that there is more to holding gold in your portfolio than gambling on its increase in value.
i do see metals as investments. silver is up 30% since the start of the year. gold is up 16%. i think metals will go higher. i just check and gold is up 24.30 right now and silver is up .94! sure it will fluctuate but gold has already surpassed its all time high of about 850 - its at almost 1000 oz right nopw and silver - currently at about 20 hasn't yet approached it's high of 50. i think it will go much higher.
pluse silver is being used for many things and is becoming more rare than gold - gold is use for few things. silver is used for things that get used up.
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When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? The more I read the more I'm intrested.........just scared to death of markets. I was originally going to pull a little money out to buy rental prop. We also have a home in Palm Springs that is almost paid for.
joe, when the time is right, having working capital will pay nice dividends. only once in a lifetime do opportunities like were seeing in certain sectors present themselves.
this is where the "warren buffett's" of the world make their fortunes.
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i do see metals as investments. silver is up 30% since the start of the year. gold is up 16%. i think metals will go higher. i just check and gold is up 24.30 right now and silver is up .94! sure it will fluctuate but gold has already surpassed its all time high of about 850
Gold is not anywhere near its all time high. When you index it for inflation, gold would have to hit 2,145 (september 2007 dollars).
I guess I should clarify my definition of "investment"
I don't consider "buy and pray" to be investing, it is speculating/gambling.
Investing is the purchase of an asset that is giving you cashflow this principle should be the bread and butter, appreciation and tax breaks generally should not come before cashflow, although there are always exceptions. I think many learned this in 2001 and also recently with the real estate collapse.
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When the time is right, would it be smart to pull some equity out of my home, find a good broker and invest in the markets? [/u]
IMHO, most brokers are nothing more than well dressed salesmen who know little about financial markets.
joeloco, you know a lot of people, ask around. the broker you choose should've had his clients out of this market by Nov. or Dec 07, (no excuses) if he or she didn't, i'd continue my search for a qualified adviser. remember, when a broker says "the market cannot be timed" it's an excuse for lack of knowledge.
when the time comes, i'll do my best to tell gbers what looks good to me. ;)
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IMHO, most brokers are nothing more than well dressed salesmen who know little about financial markets.
Right on. Brokers are salesmen.
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Then how does one know the right stock to pick?
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gbers....keep in mind there's a "lag time" between rising crude oil and future gas prices. 4.00 per gallon is not far off nationally. $150.00 per barrel this summer is entirely possible.
NT
Oil jumps above $104 as supply drops, OPEC stands pat
Associated Press 3/5/08
NEW YORK — Oil prices surged nearly $5 to a record above $104 a barrel Wednesday after the government reported a surprise drop in crude oil stockpiles and OPEC held production levels steady
Crude oil for April delivery rose $4.89, or 4.9%, to $104.41 a barrel at the close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
OPEC President Chakib Khelil said economic "mismanagement" by the United States is pushing oil prices to record highs. Khelil told reporters that America's problems were a key factor in the cartel's decision to hold off on any action.
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Then how does one know the right stock to pick?
first off, IMO the average investor should expose himself to the market buying ETF's (exchange traded funds) this allows access to a whole specific market sector w/o the risk of buying just one stock. the other benefit of ETF's are no maintenance/broker fee's like mutual funds.
for example: the ETF for the beaten down financial/banking sector is XLF. XLF is purchased just like a stock but acts more like a mutual fund. buying XLF is the equivilent to buying all the financials/banks. so instead of trying to pick one particular bank....Citi, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs etc buying XLF gives you exposure to them all.
most brokers are not interested in selling ETF's due to lack of commissions. selling mutual funds are where the commissions are for brokers !
example #2: DIA is the ETF for buying the Dow Industrials. SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500. the nasdaq ETF is QQQQ and so on.......
IMO, this is the best way for the average investor to expose himself to the market w/o the risk of one individual stock.
the key is knowing when and what to enter.
NT
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the average investor understands little about markets and alternatives to the dollar. most importantly, they need to stay OUT OF HARMS WAY. getting too complicated with average 401k investors is often counterproductive and leads to indecision and doing nothing.
the main message to fellow getbiggers is: when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad. this ultimately will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) which is considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
imo, the above mentioned will hit the stock market HARD in the coming months and the little guy stuck in a 401k will get slaughtered all the way down.(as usual) conversely, professionals on wall street make money if markets go up.......or down.
i've been in this industry for many years and have NEVER seen a situation quite like the one developing.............i just hope people listen.
an old post which has stood the test of time.
NT
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something to ponder........
the housing boom helped push the dow up from 10,000 to an all time high of 14,200........since the high, the dow has already retreated 2,000 points with the housing boom now offically a housing/credit bust coupled with record inflation.
the dow dropping back to the 10,000 area in the coming months should not be surprising or unexpected.
right now the stock market is in a slow bleed......to help avoid panic.
NT
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first off, IMO the average investor should expose himself to the market buying ETF's (exchange traded funds) this allows access to a whole specific market sector w/o the risk of buying just one stock. the other benefit of ETF's are no maintenance/broker fee's like mutual funds.
for example: the ETF for the beaten down financial/banking sector is XLF. XLF is purchased just like a stock but acts more like a mutual fund. buying XLF is the equivilent to buying all the financials/banks. so instead of trying to pick one particular bank....Citi, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs etc buying XLF gives you exposure to them all.
most brokers are not interested in selling ETF's due to lack of commissions. selling mutual funds are where the commissions are for brokers !
example #2: DIA is the ETF for buying the Dow Industrials. SPY is the ETF for the S&P 500. the nasdaq ETF is QQQQ and so on.......
IMO, this is the best way for the average investor to expose himself to the market w/o the risk of one individual stock.
the key is knowing when and what to enter.
let me know if this makes any sense.
I'm going to save this to my computer.......great info, thanks.
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gbers.......
March 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell to a six-week low, led by financial shares, after U.S. home foreclosures climbed to a record and concern grew that rising credit costs will drag the economy into a recession.
NT
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March 6, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks dropped Thursday, with investors confronted by further bleak news from the financial sector, including word of a default at mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage Inc.
"It seems like there is no end to issues within the financial sector; it is the inability to stem the flow of negative news in terms of re-evaluating capital... we're that much closer to zero now," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of U.S. equity group at Deutsche Bank.
NT
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Homeowner Equity Is Lowest Since 1945
AP
2008-03-06
NEW YORK (AP) - Americans' percentage of equity in their homes fell below 50 percent for the first time on record since 1945, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.
That marks the first time homeowners' debt on their houses exceeds their equity since the Fed started tracking the data in 1945.
NT
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gbers.....
Home Foreclosures hit all-time high
March 6, 2008:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More home owners than ever are losing the battle to make their monthly mortgage payments.
Over 900,000 households are in the foreclosure process, up 71% from a year ago, according to a survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That figure represents the highest rate in the report's quarterly, 36-year history.
gbers....this is the net result of george w bush's policy allowing lenders to go unregulated. bush had hope the housing bust occurred AFTER he left office.
clearly, that did not happen.
NT
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gbers........
U.S. stocks slide, weighed by financial sector
Oil futures push toward $106 a barrel; dollar hits record lows against euro
March 6, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks thudded lower for a fifth session in six Thursday, pressured by more bleak news from the financial sector, including a default at mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage Inc. and news that Merrill Lynch & Co. is opting out of the subprime mortgage market.
"The hits just keep on coming," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management. "Trying to stay optimistic and long-term focused is extremely hard at this point, you don't know what's coming up."
In another triple-digit decline, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 214.00 points.
NT
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I gotta admit, it must be sweet revenge on all the dumbasses that thought this was just a "Speedbump" in the road.
Those idiots mustve been listening to hannity and limbaugh and bushman..............
Anyone who gave NT hell in this thread is gonna get double the pain if they dont wisen up.
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Lord give me strength. :)
Some people are STILL not getting it. Just clueless zombies walking around taking jabs at people who have tried to warn them that shit was gonna hit the fan and look, we have McInsane winning the Republican nomination and fellow getbiggers laughing at Ron PAul comments. ::) >:(
I swear, sometimes I think I'm in the Twilight Zone.
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I honestly feel like a financial wizard (sarcasm :))when I look at what I knew back then compared to what was being written. People didn't seem to take notice when the Fed (back in August I believe) had to inject MASSIVE amounts of liquidity, and for the first time in history, encouraged banks to use their mortgages as collateral !!
This right there was hard evidence that we had some serious fucking problems on the horizon. If not for this cash injection (credit/money created out of thin air) and accepting mortgages (JUNK) the entire industry would have melted down as the foreign money was hightailing it out of these investments. This would have been the end of our economy folks. The chain reaction combined with our fractional reserve banking would have bankrupt all of our banks (well, by the nature of the system they are inherently bankrupt anyway, but that's a different discussion).
It's funny to read the articles of all these jackass financial journalists now, and how they are backtracking. To say they are a day late and a dollar short is giving them far too much credit.
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I honestly feel like a financial wizard (sarcasm :))when I look at what I knew back then compared to what was being written. People didn't seem to take notice when the Fed (back in August I believe) had to inject MASSIVE amounts of liquidity, and for the first time in history, encouraged banks to use their mortgages as collateral !!
This right there was hard evidence that we had some serious fucking problems on the horizon. If not for this cash injection (credit/money created out of thin air) and accepting mortgages (JUNK) the entire industry would have melted down as the foreign money was hightailing it out of these investments. This would have been the end of our economy folks. The chain reaction combined with our fractional reserve banking would have bankrupt all of our banks (well, by the nature of the system they are inherently bankrupt anyway, but that's a different discussion).
It's funny to read the articles of all these jackass financial journalists now, and how they are backtracking. To say they are a day late and a dollar short is giving them far too much credit.
Stop trying to solve the problem and let people swallow the bad pill. All they did was prolong and worsen the pain.
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U.S. Lost 63,000 Jobs in February
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs in February for the second consecutive month, reinforcing concern the economy is contracting.
Payrolls fell by 63,000, the biggest drop since March 2003, after a decline of 22,000 in January that was larger than initially estimated, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate declined to 4.8 percent, reflecting a shrinking labor force as some people gave up looking for work.
A weakening job market, combined with lower home values, higher fuel bills and stricter lending rules, raises the odds consumer spending will keep slowing. Falling employment is one reason Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has signaled central bankers are prepared to lower interest rates again.
NT
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gbers..... how in the world could some dope on GB (me) ;) predict a severe recession back in Nov 07 and no one else in our government knew ?
it amazes me how our government fvcks over the little guy.
if you guys only knew half the truth.
NT
March 7, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In the clearest suggestion yet of a recession, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, the second straight decline, the Labor Department reported Friday.
William Somerset: I just don't think I can continue to live in a place that embraces and nurtures apathy as if it was virtue.
David Mills: You're no different. You're no better.
William Somerset: I didn't say I was different or better. I'm not. Hell, I sympathize; I sympathize completely. Apathy is the solution. I mean, it's easier to lose yourself in drugs than it is to cope with life. It's easier to steal what you want than it is to earn it. It's easier to beat a child than it is to raise it. Hell, love costs: It takes effort and work.
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gbers..... how in the world could some dope on GB (me) ;) predict a severe recession back in Nov 07 and no one else in our government knew ?
it amazes me how our government fvcks over the little guy.
if you guys only knew half the truth.
NT
March 7, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In the clearest suggestion yet of a recession, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, the second straight decline, the Labor Department reported Friday.
I've been hearing that there will be a jump in employment next month based on skewed figures that will bump up the market and then a steep fall again around end of March. Any news on that?
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I've been hearing that there will be a jump in employment next month based on skewed figures that will bump up the market and then a steep fall again around end of March. Any news on that?
Not that i know much about this........but on cnn this morning they said February recorded 63,000 losing jobs.
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Not that i know much about this........but on cnn this morning they said February recorded 63,000 losing jobs.
LOL. Its 4-5 posts above you. I guess nobody wanted to admit the Titanic had hit a berg until it was undeniable and you couldnt fool anyone about it.
This is another fault of the Bush admin that he should answer for.
Stormshadow, that was a good post. When i started recieving checks for my newer house (that i had just bought) for a 100,000k, I was saying something is fishy cuz i had only been making payments for 2 years and hadnt built up equity yet.
Or so I thought...Everyday i recieved at least 3-5 peices of mail asking me to pull out the equity. I knew it was crazy, and now home prices are dropping back down and people are bitching about losing equity, and Im telling them:"What you dumbass, you didnt really believe that shit did you?" You havent lost anything that wasnt yours to begin with.
But the foreclosures on my street are almost 50% of the homes.......Sad,Man.
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LOL. Its 4-5 posts above you. I guess nobody wanted to admit the Titanic had hit a berg until it was undeniable and you couldnt fool anyone about it.
This is another fault of the Bush admin that he should answer for.
Stormshadow, that was a good post. When i started recieving checks for my newer house (that i had just bought) for a 100,000k, I was saying something is fishy cuz i had only been making payments for 2 years and hadnt built up equity yet.
Or so I thought...Everyday i recieved at least 3-5 peices of mail asking me to pull out the equity. I knew it was crazy, and now home prices are dropping back down and people are bitching about losing equity, and Im telling them:"What you dumbass, you didnt really believe that shit did you?" You havent lost anything that wasnt yours to begin with.
But the foreclosures on my street are almost 50% of the homes.......Sad,Man.
lol, yeah, well ADD, what can say i? ;D
But here's thing about it. EVERYONE blames the administration when the economy is bad. Because they share partial responsibility. And it's not going to get better. It's going to get worse. It's going to be 1980 all over again.
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Neurotoxin knows what he's talking about. Under control for most but more should've listen. Including me.
Holy shit I just fell over... ;D
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I've been hearing that there will be a jump in employment next month based on skewed figures that will bump up the market and then a steep fall again around end of March. Any news on that?
# 1) without exception the government employment numbers are usually "worked" to assist the market. that's a given. when the 63,000 job loss number was released today, many of us laughed because the real number is MUCH, MUCH HIGHER. We often refer to the numbers released as "phantom numbers". real unemployment in this country is in the 10-11% range. we're told 4.8- 5.0%. remember, once a person loses his/her unemployment benefits, they are no longer considered unemployed, whether or not they have found a new job.
#2) also, consider the fact that the housing boom created 15 million new jobs. ie, home builders, roofers, carpenters, tile layers, electricions, dry wallers, mortgage brokers, banking employees etc. many of these jobs have been eliminated due to the subsequent housing bust.........but oddly the unemployment rate released by our government remains mostly unchanged. how does that add up ? do i make myself clear ?
# 4) ever wonder why we see constant downward "revisions" to various numbers released ? that's because the numbers are often "padded" on the original release date, and then basically ignored by the markets when revised lower at a later date. (considered old news)
of course this is all speculation on my part. ;)
NT
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Neurotoxin knows what he's talking about. Under control for most but more should've listen. Including me.
alex23, good to see you finally come around.
NT
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None of this shit matters. Pale Blue Dot Bitches....
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March 7, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks were hammered Friday, pushing the Dow industrials to their lowest close since Oct. 11, 2006, after February's unemployment report cemented thinking of a recession, and central bank moves to stem the credit crunch failed to offset the damage.
"Folks, based on today's employment report, if we are not in a recession, it is a darned good imitation of one; we are in an unprecedented real estate and credit crisis that is whipping its way through the U.S. economy," said Kevin Giddis, managing director, fixed income trading, Morgan Keegan & Co.
The Dow Industrials declined 146.70 points to 11,893.69, giving it a weekly loss of 3%. Since the year began, the blue-chip index has lost more than 1,370 points, declining 10% in value.
NT
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gbers......
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will "destroy the U.S. dollar'' by cutting interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.
Bernanke's reduction in the target rate for overnight loans between banks to 3 percent has spurred a rout in U.S. stocks and gains in oil and gold prices, said Faber.
NT
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# 1) without exception the government employment numbers are usually "worked" to assist the market. that's a given. when the 63,000 job loss number was released today, many of us laughed because the real number is MUCH, MUCH HIGHER. We often refer to the numbers released as "phantom numbers". real unemployment in this country is in the 10-11% range. we're told 4.8- 5.0%. remember, once a person loses his/her unemployment benefits, they are no longer considered unemployed, whether or not they have found a new job.
#2) also, consider the fact that the housing boom created 15 million new jobs. ie, home builders, roofers, carpenters, tile layers, electricions, dry wallers, mortgage brokers, banking employees etc. many of these jobs have been eliminated due to the subsequent housing bust.........but oddly the unemployment rate released by our government remains mostly unchanged. how does that add up ? do i make myself clear ?
# 4) ever wonder why we see constant downward "revisions" to various numbers released ? that's because the numbers are often "padded" on the original release date, and then basically ignored by the markets when revised lower at a later date. (considered old news)
of course this is all speculation on my part. ;)
NT
Thanks for answering, I just realized when I wrote that I was thinkng we were still in February, :-[ but the question remains the same. Thanks agian.
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gbers......bush now says the iraq war is HELPING the US economy. this fvcker belongs in a padded cell.
Bush Dismisses Iraq Recession: The War Has ‘Nothing To Do With The Economy’
This morning on NBC’s Today Show, President Bush denied that the there’s any link between the faltering U.S. economy and $10 billion a month being spent on the Iraq war. In fact, according to Bush, the war is actually helping the economy:
NT
Please, this man NEEDS to be thrown into a courtroom with public hearings, NOW!
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gbers......
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will "destroy the U.S. dollar'' by cutting interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.
Bernanke's reduction in the target rate for overnight loans between banks to 3 percent has spurred a rout in U.S. stocks and gains in oil and gold prices, said Faber.
NT
Pale Blue Dot
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gbers....
U.S. Lost 63,000 Jobs in February
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. unexpectedly lost jobs in February for the second consecutive month, reinforcing concern the economy is contracting.
Payrolls fell by 63,000, the biggest drop since March 2003, after a decline of 22,000 in January that was larger than initially estimated, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate declined to 4.8 percent, reflecting a shrinking labor force as some people gave up looking for work.
A weakening job market, combined with lower home values, higher fuel bills and stricter lending rules, raises the odds consumer spending will keep slowing. Falling employment is one reason Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has signaled central bankers are prepared to lower interest rates again.
NT
gbers....
think about this:
the unemployment rate dropped by 0.1%. How can it drop if we lost 63,000 jobs? Basically, because the unemployment rate is estimated from a survey called the household survey. They literally call hundreds of thousands of homes and ask if anyone is working or looking for work. If you are NOT looking for work, then you are NOT counted as unemployed. This month the household survey showed a drop of 255,000 jobs (quite the difference from the headline 63,000 number released.); but an even larger number of people, 450,000, are not looking for a job, presumably because they do not expect to find one.
So, even though fewer people are working, the data shows the unemployment rate falling. Go figure.
in addition, all the unemployed who have run out of unemployment benefits are NO LONGER counted as unemployed.
NT
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Its possible that alot of people gave up looking because wages in the help wanted section of ANY PAPER in America are still paying $10 hr and the household bills are $1500 Mortgage
$600 Car
$300 Utilities
$300 creditcard
$400 Food
And more.
Notice this is not just for Un-skilled workers.....these are for supposed Careers.
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NYTimes March 8, 2008
If history is a reliable guide, the recession of 2008 is now unavoidable.
The dismal jobs report released Friday showed overall employment to be lower than it was three months ago. Every time such a slump has occurred since the early 1970s, a recession has followed — or already been under way.
And if the good times have really ended, they were never that good to begin with. Most American households are still not earning as much annually as they did in 1999, once inflation is taken into account. Since the Census Bureau began keeping records in the 1960s, a prolonged expansion has never ended without household income having set a new record.
NT
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Its possible that alot of people gave up looking because wages in the help wanted section of ANY PAPER in America are still paying $10 hr and the household bills are $1500 Mortgage
$600 Car
$300 Utilities
$300 creditcard
$400 Food
And more.
Notice this is not just for Un-skilled workers.....these are for supposed Careers.
Exactly. Even though I have a job I look every once in a while to see if anything better is out there. I am in the I.T. field and the only places hiring are those temp agencies. Even those have went down. Plus, the companies that are hiring want you to have a minimum bachelors sometimes masters, up to date certifications, 10 years experience, and knowledge of every type of software under the sun. All of that just to live paycheck to paycheck. I just hope I don't lose my job. If so I will have to resort to illegal activities just to live. If I go to prison..well..who gives a fuck. At least I wont have any bills. Thanks George W. !!!
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gbers..........
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending at U.S. retailers slowed in February as increasing fuel costs eroded Americans' buying power, economists said reports this week will show.
A weakening job market and rising gasoline costs are hurting consumer confidence and spending, increasing the odds the economy is already in a recession. Investors last week raised bets the Federal Reserve will keep cutting the benchmark interest rate, currently at 3 percent, as it focuses on reviving growth over taming inflation.
Sales are ``reflecting the many strains on consumers,'' said Drew Matus, senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York. ``We expect the Fed to cut rates to 1.5 percent by early 2009.''
Auto purchases in February were little changed from a three-year low reached in January, according to industry figures last week.
NT
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gbers.........
3/9/08
WASHINGTON — Dangerous cracks in the nation's job market are deepening. Employers slashed jobs by the largest amount in five years and hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the labor force _ ominous signs that the country is falling toward a recession or has already toppled into one.
For the second straight month, nervous employers got rid of jobs nationwide. In February, they sliced payrolls by 63,000, even deeper than the 22,000 cut in January, the Labor Department reported Friday.
The grim snapshot of the country's employment climate underscored the heavy toll the housing and credit debacles are taking on companies, jobseekers and the economy as a whole.
"It sounds like the recession bell is ringing for the U.S. economy, although it is still faint," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
On Wall Street, stocks tumbled. The Dow Jones lost 146.70 points, a little more than 1 percent to close at 11,893.69. The Dow was down 370 for the last two days of the week
this week should be interesting gbers.
NT
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Low yeild Index bonds....I just had to change up the protfolio at Fidelity...fuck stocks
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gbers.......my warning's were clear and early.
March 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a third day to the lowest level since 2006, led by a plunge in financial shares, on speculation earnings estimates will prove to be too high as the economy slows and credit losses spread.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 20 points, or 1.6 percent, to 1,273.37 and is down almost 19 percent from its Oct. 9 record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 153.54, or 1.3 percent, to 11,740.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 43.15, or 2 percent, to 2,169.34. Five stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
``It's a painful time for investors,'' said Sam Rahman, the Boston-based head of U.S. equities at Baring Asset Management Inc.,
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move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
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Low yeild Index bonds....I just had to change up the protfolio at Fidelity...fuck stocks
you're a little late to the party.
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gbers.........
Record oil could push gasoline to $4 a gallon
March 10, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Retail gasoline prices haven't kept pace with the historic rally in the crude-oil futures market, but the cost of filling up the gas tank is still on the rise despite the fuel being in plentiful supply domestically.
gbers.....gasoline prices always lag behind oil prices. with that in mind, be prepared for sticker shock at the pump this coming summer.
NT
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guys, 12,800 has been my upside target (as many of you already know). after hitting 12,756 recently, i now expect the market to test the Jan low of 11,600.
gbers......
the Dow hit my target area of 11,600 yesterday, (3/10/08) which is considered a strong level of support by the big traders on WS. with that in mind, expect a nice big rally today as all the short players begin to take profits.
i could be wrong.........but i doubt it. ;)
NT
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gbers......
the Dow hit my target area of 11,600 yesterday, (3/10/08) which is considered a strong level of support by the big traders on WS. with that in mind, expect a nice big rally today as all the short players begin to take profits.
i could be wrong.........but i doubt it. ;)
NT
gbers.......
March 11, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday for the first day in four, with the Dow rising 416.00 points, the most in almost seven weeks, with investors' spirits lifted by the Federal Reserve's move to loan as much as $200 billion in securities in a bid to boost liquidity in the financial system.
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gbers.......
March 11, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday for the first day in four, with the Dow rising 416.00 points, the most in almost seven weeks, with investors' spirits lifted by the Federal Reserve's move to loan as much as $200 billion in securities in a bid to boost liquidity in the financial system.
gbers.......surprise, surprise. ;)
Who the hell is this masked man??? How can he read the markets so well?? Is this luck or skill??? :o
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Will 1979-80 oil peak then abrupt decline repeat itself?
Good question. Nothing Booms forever right?? When will it saturate? NT
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Will 1979-80 oil peak then abrupt decline repeat itself?
alex23, the current situation confronting oil prices is worlds away from 79-80. china's increased demand, coupled with bush's wars, is leaving too much uncertainty in the oil market at this time. i personally wouldn't be looking for oil's demise in the near term. although, at some point the pendulum will shift.
when i see it beginning to occur, i'll be happy to let you know.
right now......is not that time.
NT
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am i lucky you ask ? damn right, my wife is soooo fvcking hot ! ;D
haha stock market info, dandy but were gonna need some proof on this ;D
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NT - are you selling into these rallies such as we had today (alas too late for me as I got out last week - exactly the reason why I shouldn't deal with the long term stuff. I'm much better with short term and leave the long to someone else)
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NT - are you selling into these rallies such as we had today (alas too late for me as I got out last week - exactly the reason why I shouldn't deal with the long term stuff. I'm much better with short term and leave the long to someone else)
Straw, now is not the time for the average investor to be buying this market. yesterday's 416.00 point rally/bounce should be viewed very cautiously.
unfortunately, this is usually where people who don't understand the market get hurt. they suddenly get sooo excited and jump in, only to get burned..... again.
ask yourself......has the recession ended ? has inflation stopped ? have oil prices suddenly dropped ? is the housing collaspe over ? have gas prices dropped ? has the economy recovered from the recession which just started ? did the dollar's downward spiral suddenly recover in a day ?
if you answer NO to the above questions, then rallies like yesterday (which i called ) should always be viewed suspiciously.
when i personally see this market has shifted to the positive (for the long term) i'll let you gbers know.
until then, my non-advice is: sit back, hold tight, and stay away from this market.
btw, although most money managers and stock brokers claim "the market cannot be timed". i've proven beyond a reasonable doubt, their incorrect. in fact, there are some individuals on WS who are compensated to do just that.....determine the market's direction, before it occurs.
NT
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NT - are you selling into these rallies such as we had today (alas too late for me as I got out last week - exactly the reason why I shouldn't deal with the long term stuff. I'm much better with short term and leave the long to someone else)
straw, keep in mind on a short term basis, the market direction will now be skewed to the upside.
NT
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Straw, now is not the time for the average investor to be buying this market. yesterday's 416.00 point rally/bounce should be viewed very cautiously.
unfortunately, this is usually where people who don't understand the market get hurt. they suddenly get sooo excited and jump in, only to get burned..... again.
ask yourself......has the recession ended ? has inflation stopped ? have oil prices suddenly dropped ? is the housing collaspe over ? have gas prices dropped ? has the economy recovered from the recession which just started ? did the dollar's downward spiral suddenly recover in a day ?
if you answer NO to the above questions, then rallies like yesterday (which i called ) should always be viewed suspiciously.
when i personally see this market has shifted to the positive (for the long term) i'll let you gbers know.
until then, my non-advice is: sit back, hold tight, and stay away from this market.
btw, although most money managers and stock brokers claim "the market cannot be timed". i've proven beyond a reasonable doubt, their incorrect. in fact, there are some individuals on WS who are compensated to do just that.....determine the market's direction, before it occurs.
NT
NT - I asked if you were selling the rally - not buying it.
If you're really bearish wouldn't you view these rallies as an opportunity to get short (assuming that's a strategy that you like to do)
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NT - I asked if you were selling the rally - not buying it.
If you're really bearish wouldn't you view these rallies as an opportunity to get short (assuming that's a strategy that you like to do)
straw, in viewing the start of this thread, i'll allow you to decide what long term "personal position" i carry.
for short term professional traders, i'm confident they will be selling INTO any short term rallies.
keep in mind, earning's drive the stock market higher, and in recessionary periods, earning tend to decrease.
NT
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NT - I'm not asking you for advise. I just figured that since you were bearish you might take these rallies as an opportunity to short. I guess you're telling me you've been short since last year.
Yesterday's rally was mostly a reaction (IMO) to the Feds announcement (unprecedented) to accept mortgage collateral in exchange for short term loans. I guess their hope is that it will bring some confidence back to the credit markets (I'm not hopeful) but as you pointed out this doesn't change the fact that our economy is also facing other recessionary pressures (job loss, decreasing corporate earnings, etc..) as well as inflation all of which does not bode well for the stock market. The Feds action yesterday probably just lessened (temporarily) the exacerbated effect of securities firms being forced to dump good assets at fire sale prices in order to meet margin calls.
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gbers......
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $110 a barrel to a record in New York after the dollar weakened to an all-time low against the euro, prompting investors to buy commodities.
The dollar fell to $1.556 per euro, the lowest since the currency's 1999 debut. The declining U.S. currency has spurred investors to move funds into commodities such as oil and gold.
NT
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NT - I'm not asking you for advise. I just figured that since you were bearish you might take these rallies as an opportunity to short. I guess you're telling me you've been short since last year.
Yesterday's rally was mostly a reaction (IMO) to the Feds announcement (unprecedented) to accept mortgage collateral in exchange for short term loans. I guess their hope is that it will bring some confidence back to the credit markets (I'm not hopeful) but as you pointed out this doesn't change the fact that our economy is also facing other recessionary pressures (job loss, decreasing corporate earnings, etc..) as well as inflation all of which does not bode well for the stock market. The Feds action yesterday probably just lessened (temporarily) the exacerbated effect of securities firms being forced to dump good assets and fire sale prices in order to meet margin calls.
straw, good post. i agree with all your points. personally speaking, shorted this market near the all time highs......and held those positions. the writing was on the wall long before the stock market began to drop like a rock.......thus my warning to gbers in Nov. 07.
i don't consider myself a market bear or a bull (the market dictates that) my objective/job is to spot market trends early.....whether up or down, and capitalize on those trends both professionally....as well as personally.
IMHO, this market continues to be very toxic and should be avoided. conversely, when the time is right, many great buying opportunities will present themselves.
my current stance on the market is unchanged from Nov. the Fed can put all the liquidity they want into this market, but with rising inflation, a tapped out consumer, the dollar crumbling, record forclosures, record gas......the extra liquidity means nothing.
dropping interest rates further will only spur on inflation......which inturn will only continue the downward spiral of the US economy.
NT
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straw, good post. i agree with all your points. personally speaking, shorted this market near the all time highs......and held those positions. the writing was on the wall long before the stock market began to drop like a rock.......thus my warning to gbers in Nov. 07.
i don't consider myself a market bear or a bull (the market dictates that) my objective/job is to spot market trends early.....whether up or down, and capitalize on those trends both professionally....as well as personally.
IMHO, this market continues to be very toxic and should be avoided. conversely, when the time is right, many great buying opportunities will present themselves.
my current stance on the market is unchanged from Nov. the Fed can put all the liquidity they want into this market, but with rising inflation, a tapped out consumer, the dollar crumbling, record forclosures, record gas......the extra liquidity means nothing.
dropping interest rates further will only spur on inflation......which inturn will only continue the downward spiral of the US economy.
i could be wrong......but i doubt it.
NT
Have you read Peter Schiff's Book?
I don't see how we can get out of this mess, what will the next bubble be? commodities?
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Have you read Peter Schiff's Book?
I don't see how we can get out of this mess, what will the next bubble be? commodities?
no, in order to be completely objective in my market analysis, i cannot be influenced by perma-bears (schiff ) nor perma-bulls.
from my exerience, anyone who's mindset is fixed on a particular market bias, is typically doomed to failure in financial markets.
NT
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no, in order to be completely objective in my market analysis, i cannot be influenced by perma-bears (schiff ) nor perma-bulls.
from my exerience, anyone who's mindset is fixed on a particular market bias, is typically doomed to failure in financial markets.
NT
Did someone say "Musclebear" ;D
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neurotoxin what would you invest in at this time ive seen you say cash is king but im sorry i havent read the whole thread so i dont know if youve stated your investment suggestion.
if cash is king what are you saying is a good investment as you know the dollar is at an all time low against the euro and the yen
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gbers............in an to attempt to save the market from imploding, bogus CPI numbers were released today. read the bloomberg post below and determine if it makes any sense in the world you're living in. fuel costs dropped ? listen guys, this report now allows the Fed to lower interest rates again.....w/o the fear of inflation. ::)
NT
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer prices in the U.S. were unexpectedly unchanged in February as fuel costs dropped, easing concern that inflation would keep accelerating as the economy slows.
The steady reading in the cost of living index followed a 0.4 percent gain in January, the Labor Department said today in Washington. So-called core prices, which exclude food and energy, were also little changed, the first time they didn't increase since November 2006
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gbers............in an to attempt to save the market from imploding, bogus CPI numbers were released today. read the bloomberg post below and determine if it makes any sense in the world you're living in. fuel costs dropped ? listen guys, this report now allows the Fed to lower interest rates again.....w/o the fear of inflation. ::)
NT
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer prices in the U.S. were unexpectedly unchanged in February as fuel costs dropped, easing concern that inflation would keep accelerating as the economy slows.
The steady reading in the cost of living index followed a 0.4 percent gain in January, the Labor Department said today in Washington. So-called core prices, which exclude food and energy, were also little changed, the first time they didn't increase since November 2006
Nice, I made a seperate post for it, I should have included it here.
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gbers........
Is the US Consumer Giving Up ?
Yesterday’s retail sales numbers constituted a negative surprise for markets and a booster for recession fears. Retail sales fell 0.6% in nominal terms with autos and restaurants leading the retreat; and in real terms the fall was even greater as inflation is eroding real spending power. A U.S. consumer whose debt-to-income ratio rose in the last 6 years as much as in the previous 39 years is facing the highest debt-service ratio ever while the supply of credit is diminishing and its assets are depreciating. Is it really a surprise to see the U.S. consumer on the ropes and retrenching its spending?
NT
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gbers....
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein said a six-year U.S. economic expansion has ended and the downturn could be substantially worse than past contractions.
``I believe the U.S. economy is now in recession,'' Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in a speech at the Futures Industry Association conference in Boca Raton, Florida. ``The situation is bad, it's getting worse and the risks are that the situation could be very bad.''
NT
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gbers.......
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Friday after news that Bear Stearns needs emergency funding due to a liquidity crisis intensified fears that the credit crunch is spreading.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost more than 194 points.The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index lost 2% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 2.2%.
NT
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gbers.........
Bloomberg March 15, 2008
The Federal Reserve’s unusual decision to provide emergency assistance to Bear Stearns underscores a long-building concern that one failure could spread across the financial system.
The sudden collapse of a major player could not only shake client confidence in the entire system, but also make it difficult for sound institutions to conduct business as usual.
The Fed’s action was intended simply to keep the financial markets functioning. Since various trading markets seized up in August, credit conditions have steadily worsened, and interest rate cuts, the main tool central bankers use to bolster the economy, have become less effective.
gbers.......i cannot stress this enough, please be very careful in this market environment. as i've stated previously, any and all "rallies" will be sold off. do not get suckered in by any of the talking heads on TV who say "the market has bottomed". their job is to get you to buy, buy, buy. DO NOT LISTEN.
NT
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gbers.............the fed is lost and desperate.
Bernanke Discards Monetary History With Bear Stearns Bailout
March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is being forced to throw out four decades of monetary history by a financial system choking on miscalculated risks and a deepening recession.
Bernanke and the four Fed governors voted yesterday to become creditors to Bear Stearns Cos., a securities firm that isn't a bank, by invoking a law that hasn't been used since the 1960s. :o
NT
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Isnt this the same as Northern Rock Bank?
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Isnt this the same as Northern Rock Bank?
yes, different continent.......similar scenario.
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Just allowing one even one large Bank a bailout is going to lead to many more. Theyve seen the fed deal its hand, and so they are going to push their chips in the table too....
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Just allowing one even one large Bank a bailout is going to lead to many more. Theyve seen the fed deal its hand, and so they are going to push their chips in the table too....
These are exciting times, even though I am in a serious pinch myself because of the credit crunch, it is still fun to see it all unwind.
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These are exciting times, even though I am in a serious pinch myself because of the credit crunch, it is still fun to see it all unwind.
You self punishing sicko. ;D
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These are exciting times, even though I am in a serious pinch myself because of the credit crunch, it is still fun to see it all unwind.
It really is.....its like a train wreck.......You cant help but watch. Its so weird how people like hh6 and brittnyballdawg just go along acting like everything is fine, la la la la la.... ::) They are fooled into thinking that the adminstration will not do intentional harm...
This is going to be a show on so many levels. Just yesterday i was tallking to a guy that owns a trucking company...has 3 trucks running for albertsons....well he was saying that legislation is trying to be snuck into law that would give mexico drivers full latitude in america, not just into the border as was heard.
He says no one will be able to compete and has also heard that 3 companies have been chosen to do all the trucking with govt support. One being "Swift trucking" cant remember the other 2.
I asked him what his plans are when this hits? he said well....hopefully ill have little debts at that point and can scale down since ill have no choice...
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What is your opinion on putting your cash into Gold?
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Interesting article on CEO wages,
Executives have been defending before a Congressional committee large salaries and pay-off packages earned while their firms were hit by the sub-prime crisis.
Angelo Mozilo, boss of Countrywide Financial, Merrill Lynch ex-head Stanley O'Neal and ex-Citigroup boss Charles Prince all faced the panel.
The three firms were hit by the US home slowdown and subsequent credit crunch.
"It seems that CEOs hit the lottery when their companies collapse," said House Oversight chair Henry Waxman.
'Broken down'
At the opening of the hearing Mr Waxman said: "Any reasonable relation between their compensation and the interests of their shareholders appears to have broken down."
Mr Waxman highlighted the fact that Mr Mozilo received more than $120m in compensation and sales of Countrywide shares in 2007, at the same time that the firm registered losses of $1.6bn.
And Merrill Lynch lost $10bn in 2007, but Mr O'Neal got a $161m retirement package.
Meanwhile, Mr Prince was paid a bonus of $10.4m for 2007 as well as $28m in stock and stock options.
'Proud'
The three told the committee the reasons behind their packages.
Mr Mozilo said his direct compensation and value of his shareholdings fell heavily in 2007 and will not receive a bonus for 2007 and 2008.
"As our company did well, I did well," said Mr Mozilo, founder of Countrywide, the nation's largest mortgage lender.
"But when our company did not do well, as in 2007, my direct compensation and the value of my holdings declined materially, which is as it should be."
Mr O'Neal also said: "I received no bonus for 2007, no severance pay, no 'golden parachute.'
"The amount discussed in the press consisted mainly of deferred compensation, stock and options that I had earned during the years prior to 2007."
"I'm proud of my accomplishments," Mr Prince said, referring to his contributions to Citigroup's growth.
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President George Bush has attempted to restore confidence in the US economy, amid the deepening financial crisis.
Speaking at the Economic Club of New York the President acknowledged that growth had slowed but said that the economy is basically sound.
He said the economy was "obviously going through a tough time".
Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke, the head of the US central bank pledged to do everything possible to help struggling homeowners hit by the credit crisis.
He said that the Fed "is strongly committed to fully employing our authority, expertise, and resources to help alleviate their distress".
The Fed has already cut interest rates sharply to ease the credit crunch, and is expected to make a further reduction when it meets next week.
Housing problems
The US housing market is in freefall, with prices dropping and repossessions rising.
The remarks came shortly after one of Wall Street's leading investment banks, Bear Stearns, said it needed emergency funding due to the credit crisis.
The president said that the Bear Stearns situation was changing fast, but the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury had the situation in hand.
He also admitted that the credit crisis is having a knock-on effect to the broader economy by making banks less able to lend money.
"Hard-working Americans are concerned about their families and their bills," the president said.
Consumer confidence slips
That was supported by the latest report on US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan.
Its index of confidence slipped in early March compared to February to near record lows.
"There was nearly unanimous agreement among consumers that the economy was now in recession," said Richard Curtin, director of the survey.
President Bush said that tax rebates agreed with Congress would start taking effect later this year, which should help boost the economy.
A survey of economists by Reuters also suggested that a majority are now predicting that the US economy had moved into recession.
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The Fed has already cut interest rates sharply to ease the credit crunch, and is expected to make a further reduction when it meets next week.
Ben Bernanke won't be happy until he gets the rate down to 1%. >:(
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neurotoxin what would you invest in at this time ive seen you say cash is king but im sorry i havent read the whole thread so i dont know if youve stated your investment suggestion.
if cash is king what are you saying is a good investment as you know the dollar is at an all time low against the euro and the yen
bump for response
What is your opinion on putting your cash into Gold?
he previously stated now is the time to sell if you own metals. dont know if his position has changed
if youre looking at metals i think silver is what you should be looking at more than gold and actually owning the metal not having some house hold it for you will it really be there when its time to collect? these are strange times economically
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bump for response
he previously stated now is the time to sell if you own metals. dont know if his position has changed
if youre looking at metals i think silver is what you should be looking at more than gold and actually owning the metal not having some house hold it for you will it really be there when its time to collect? these are strange times economically
here was my quote on metals:
"if you've been in metals the last yr or so, now would be the time to take some profits."
i never said sell your metals, i said to take some profits if you've been in them the last yr or so. could metals go higher from here ? sure they could, especially with the falling dollar and inflation worries. the time to have bought that sector was well over a yr ago.
jumping in at the all time highs always carries extra risk........not unlike the masses who jumped into the Dow at 14,000, while i was warning of a Dow crash.
buying any sector AT HISTORIC HIGHS is very un-warren buffett like.
keep in mind, the most successful long term traders on W.S. buy when the public is panicked, and sell when the public is euphoric. ;)
NT
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Silver seems good....people are just starting to notice it as an option to the high price of gold....imho.
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i never said sell your metals, i said to take some profits if you've been in them the last yr or so.
ok are you saying there is a way to take profits from them without selling them ???
also what would you suggest people invest in at this time?
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Silver seems good....people are just starting to notice it as an option to the high price of gold....imho.
a yr ago PAAS (silver) traded at 13.00, it now trades at 42.00
did i buy silver last yr ? yes. would i enter into a new position now ? probably not. if a did, i'd have a very tight stop loss in.
NT
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ok are you saying there is a way to take profits from them without selling them ???
taking some profits and selling your position are 2 different animals.
NT
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taking some profits and selling your position are 2 different animals.
NT
ok so yes you did mean sell some. i thought you had some secret to take profit without selling damn ;D
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ok so yes you did mean sell some. i thought you had some secret to take profit without selling damn ;D
listen, here's the dilemma. although i expect gold/silver and other metals to probably head higher with big ben managing inflation and the falling dollar. i'm just personally against recommending anything at the highs.
i buy at fire sales......i sell at parties. 8)
NT
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XME is an ETF (a basket) of metals and mining stocks. that may be safer bet (if you're interested in that sector) and less volatile then buying just gold / silver/ plat.
buy low........sell high.
NT
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gbers.........
March 16, 2008
Bear Stearns, facing collapse because of the mortgage crisis, agreed Sunday evening to be bought by JPMorgan Chase for a bargain-basement price of less than $250 million, the two companies announced.
The all-stock deal values Bear Stearns at about $2 a share, :o based on JPMorgan’s closing stock price on Friday, the companies said. In contrast, shares of Bear Stearns, which fell $27 on Friday, closed at $30.
A deal for Bear Stearns would end the independence of one of Wall Street’s most storied firms and help halt a sweeping panic that set in at the end of last week, causing Bear Stearns’s stock to swoon 47 percent on Friday.
NT
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gbers.........
March 16, 2008
Bear Stearns, facing collapse because of the mortgage crisis, agreed Sunday evening to be bought by JPMorgan Chase for a bargain-basement price of less than $250 million, the two companies announced.
The all-stock deal values Bear Stearns at about $2 a share, :o based on JPMorgan’s closing stock price on Friday, the companies said. In contrast, shares of Bear Stearns, which fell $27 on Friday, closed at $30.
A deal for Bear Stearns would end the independence of one of Wall Street’s most storied firms and help halt a sweeping panic that set in at the end of last week, causing Bear Stearns’s stock to swoon 47 percent on Friday.
NT
biggest haircut ever?
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listen, here's the dilemma. although i expect gold/silver and other metals to probably head higher with big ben managing inflation and the falling dollar. i'm just personally against recommending anything at the highs.
alright man. i do think metals are going much higher and this current isnt their high but we wont k=now until we wait and see.
a couple questions. in reagard to bear stearns do you think lehman bros is next?
also, what is your take on the future of washington mutual?
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gbers.........
March 16, 2008
Bear Stearns, facing collapse because of the mortgage crisis, agreed Sunday evening to be bought by JPMorgan Chase for a bargain-basement price of less than $250 million, the two companies announced.
The all-stock deal values Bear Stearns at about $2 a share, :o based on JPMorgan’s closing stock price on Friday, the companies said. In contrast, shares of Bear Stearns, which fell $27 on Friday, closed at $30.
A deal for Bear Stearns would end the independence of one of Wall Street’s most storied firms and help halt a sweeping panic that set in at the end of last week, causing Bear Stearns’s stock to swoon 47 percent on Friday.
NT
Is everyone ready for the market to tank tomorrow? :D Asia's already ahead of us on this one, down 4+% in Tokyo and Shanghai, and the dollar's taking a big suck. I've got my short sales all picked out for the opening in NY. ;D ;D
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Holly hell. 2.00 a share for bear stearns??? 250 million is lunch money for those guys. What is the fed gonna do now with all the debt it just assumed, and now is in the mortgage business???
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TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar plunged across the board on Monday as the spreading U.S. financial crisis led to JPMorgan Chase acquiring stricken investment bank Bear Stearns , stirring fears that more financial firms could become casualties.
(Advertisement)
The Federal Reserve took more emergency measures to stem the fast-spreading financial crisis, cutting its discount rate on Sunday and opening up discount window lending to major investment banks, a tool not used since the Great Depression.
As the dollar slid 3 percent against the yen at one point to its lowest since 1995, investors became more convinced that the Fed and other major central banks may have to conduct coordinated dollar-buying intervention to stem the sell-off.
"The speed of the slide in the dollar/yen is so rapid that U.S. action alone can no longer stop the dollar's downward trend," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investment. "The time is ripe for coordinated intervention by U.S., European and Japanese authorities."
The dollar later trimmed some losses after Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga stepped up his verbal warnings on Monday, saying he is watching currency market moves in cooperation with authorities in the United States and Europe.
Investors have dumped the dollar on doubts about the Fed's ability to contain the deepening credit market turmoil, which has hobbled its efforts to help the economy by slashing rates and raised the threat of a protracted U.S. economic recession.
Traders said the dollar was suffering from an almost perfect storm of negative factors: a worsening financial crisis originating in the United States, unusually aggressive Fed rate cuts and investors diversifying away from the U.S. currency.
"Market players are afraid that there will be a second and third Bear Stearns out there," said Kosuke Hanao, head of forex sales at HSBC in Tokyo.
The dollar hit a record low versus the Swiss franc and struck a 13-year low beneath 96 yen on deteriorating confidence in U.S. assets from the crisis spawned by the defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages.
"The market is totally panicking," said a trader at a big Japanese bank. "The fact that the Fed had to announce its emergency steps on Sunday night highlighted the seriousness of the situation."
The dollar slide as far as 95.77 yen on trading platform EBS, down more than 3 percent on the day, before clawing back to 96.8 yen.
At its lows, the dollar was on track to for its biggest one-day drop against the yen in a decade. In less than three months this year, the dollar has already shed more than 13 percent against the Japanese currency.
The euro hit a fresh peak of $1.5905 on EBS but then retreated to $1.5850, up 0.8 percent.
The dollar dropped as low as 0.9572 Swiss francs, an all-time low, then rebounded to 0.9715, down 2.7 percent.
The concerns about the U.S. financial system prompted investors to shift their funds to safe-haven gold, boosting spot gold to a record peak above $1,030 per ounce.
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell to five-year lows as investors see a chance the Fed could slash overnight rates by up to 125 basis points by the end of its policy meeting on Tuesday.
A single cut of that size would mark one of the biggest in the modern history of the Fed.
The fears about the damage from the credit markets and plunging dollar hit shares, pushing down Tokyo's Nikkei stock average by nearly 4 percent to its lowest since August 2005.
DOLLAR INTERVENTION
Many market participants are now hoping U.S. authorities will eventually use public funds to help stabilise stumbling credit markets, believing that just slashing interest rates and injecting extra funds in the banking system cannot fix the problems.
As investors mulled the possibility of joint intervention, Nukaga and Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said on Monday that they were worried about excessive exchange rate moves -- a stepping up of their rhetoric.
But investors still doubted that Japan would act alone to limit the yen's gains. Earlier Nukaga had said that Japan was not preparing to act against the yen's surge.
"Solo intervention by Japan seems difficult. But given this market turmoil, the U.S. and Europe could move and conduct coordinated intervention in the currency market," said a senior options trader at a Japanese bank in Tokyo.
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a couple questions. in reagard to bear stearns do you think lehman bros is next?
also, what is your take on the future of washington mutual?
i believe Lehman is in a similar position to Bear.
at this point WM should be suspect like all the rest, at least til the smoke clears.
NT
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What is your opinion on putting your cash into Gold?
here was my quote on metals:
"if you've been in metals the last yr or so, now would be the time to take some profits."
i never said sell your metals, i said to take some profits if you've been in them the last yr or so. could metals go higher from here ? sure they could, especially with the falling dollar and inflation worries. the time to have bought that sector was well over a yr ago.
jumping in at the all time highs always carries extra risk........not unlike the masses who jumped into the Dow at 14,000, while i was warning of a Dow crash.
buying any sector AT HISTORIC HIGHS is very un-warren buffett like.
keep in mind, the most successful long term traders on W.S. buy when the public is panicked, and sell when the public is euphoric. ;)
NT
Could this happen again in the US?
"In April 1933, Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 prohibiting citizens of the U.S. from owning other-than-token amounts of gold and from using gold as money. Citizens were forced to sell all gold holdings (apart from jewelry and "coins of special collector value") to the federal government at a price of $20.67 per ounce. In January 1934, Roosevelt raised the official price of gold to $35 per ounce, thereby devaluing the U.S. dollar by 41%."
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gbers........
Greenspan warns of worst crisis since World War II
Reuters Monday March 17, 2008
There will be many casualties from the unfolding financial market crisis, which will lead to a large-scale overhaul of international banking regulations, codes and risk management, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said.
Writing in the Financial Times, the former Fed chief said much of the financial system's risk-valuation models failed, not because they were too complex but because they were "too simple to capture the full array of variables governing that drive global economic reality".
"The crisis will leave many casualties. Particularly hard hit will be much of today's financial risk-valuation system," he wrote
greenspan started this crisis with bush, trying to avoid a recession caused by the Dot.com bubble.
they substituted the Dot.com bubble with an even BIGGER bubble. (housing) ???
NT
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I swear to god some days this shit is so predictable it's like taking candy from a baby. I went short LEH and C just after 11 and covered 20 minutes ago. Not a bad day's effort! :D
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Is there any chance of a complete crash tomorrow?
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Is there any chance of a complete crash tomorrow?
There will be a domino effect as the banks see that the fed will cover them.......of course that means the taxpayers will get the bill... >:(
China is getting pissed and some countries may switch from the dollar as value leaving us fvcked over.
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good trade goat ! ;)
I actually came up with it before I checked getbig this morning... I was watching Lehman, Merill, and Citi waiting for the downturn, but for as much money as I made today, I'm happy to share the credit (if not the profits). ;D ;D
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Lewis, Barrow Hanley Lose Combined $2 Billion on Bear (Update2)
By Katherine Burton and Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Lewis, the billionaire investor who bought 9.4 percent of Bear Stearns Cos. last year, lost $1.13 billion on his stake after the firm agreed to sell itself to JPMorgan Chase & Co. yesterday for $2 a share.
Lewis, the New York-based firm's second-largest holder, paid an average of about $107 apiece for 11 million shares, according to a filing submitted last year to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bear's biggest investor at year-end was money manager Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss Inc., whose 9.7 percent holding has fallen by $958 million.
New York-based JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank, said yesterday it will pay about $240 million for Bear, which was crippled last week after clients pulled money and investors balked at trading with the firm because of losses on its subprime-mortgage holdings. Bear's market value was $13.6 billion at Nov. 30, the end of its fiscal year.
``This was done in the market's best interests,'' said David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights Inc., a financial- research firm in New York. ``Unfortunately Bear Stearns shareholders are at the short end of the stick and they only got this token payment.''
Bear Stearns stock closed at $4.81 today on New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It closed at $30 on Friday.
Lewis, a former currencies trader who was born in an apartment above a pub in London's East End, declined to comment through a spokesman. The loss is almost half his $2.5 billion fortune, as estimated by Forbes magazine in its 2007 survey.
Barrow Hanley president James Barrow didn't immediately return a call yesterday to the firm's Dallas headquarters.
Morgan Stanley Funds
Mutual funds run by investment bank Morgan Stanley were the third-largest Bear Stearns holder with a 5.4 percent stake and may have lost about $529 million since Dec. 31. Morgan Stanley said in a statement that its stake in Bear Stearns represented 0.10 percent of its mutual-fund assets as of Friday. It didn't disclose total fund assets.
James Cayne, Bear's former chief executive officer and fourth-largest holder with a 4.9 percent stake, saw the value of his holding drop by $487 million.
Bear's fifth-largest shareholder, Baltimore-based Legg Mason Capital Management, a unit of Legg Mason Inc. run by Bill Miller, may be down $477 million.
Messages left at the offices of Cayne and Miller weren't immediately returned.
To contact the reporters on this story: Katherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net; Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: March 17, 2008 18:38 EDT
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Writing in the Financial Times, the former Fed chief said much of the financial system's risk-valuation models failed, not because they were too complex but because they were "too simple to capture the full array of variables governing that drive global economic reality".
I just read this. Is he serious?? Just how much complexity does he feel is required to figure out that lending into a housing bubble to people with zero equity, bad credit, and limited ability to pay is a bad idea? ::) I mean, sure, the CDO's these mortgages were folded into might have somewhat obscured the true risk, but the lack of underwriting on the original mortgages ain't that complicated at all.
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goat, the former fed chief helped create this current situation. now he spends his time giving speeches (in the 6 figure range) spinning his prior destructive policies and placing blame everywhere, except with the guy in the mirror.
NT
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gbers.......
goldman sachs reports today......expect the numbers to be fixed and positive. i expect a rally off this today. ;)
NT
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gbers.......
goldman sachs reports today......expect the numbers to be fixed and positive. i expect a rally off this today. ;)
NT
Okay, I don't have any brilliant ideas for today, I'll look at GS. If I do a trade and make anything on it, you get the credit. :D
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gbers.......
goldman sachs reports today......expect the numbers to be fixed and positive. i expect a rally off this today. ;)
NT
gbers......
U.S. Stocks Gain on Goldman, Lehman Earnings.
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied the most in a week after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. posted earnings that beat estimates.
Goldman, the largest securities firm, climbed the most in almost seven years. ;)
NT
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gbers......
U.S. Stocks Gain on Goldman, Lehman Earnings.
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied the most in a week after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. posted earnings that beat estimates.
Goldman, the largest securities firm, climbed the most in almost seven years. ;)
NT
How can you say the numbers are fixed? That is a pretty big claim to make. Is this common knowledge within your circle?
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How can you say the numbers are fixed? That is a pretty big claim to make. Is this common knowledge within your circle?
probably just a lucky guess.
btw, this morning's post will be my last regarding any particular stock.
going forward, i will only discuss my opinion on possible market direction.
NT
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probably just a lucky guess.
btw, this morning's post will be my last regarding any particular stock.
Oh, come on... feel free to share your insights. You've been right most of the time.
BTW, I went with Lehman again instead of GS, and rode a 13.5 point gain up from mid-morning. This volitility is teh awesome! :D
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How can you say the numbers are fixed? That is a pretty big claim to make. Is this common knowledge within your circle?
No surprise, all you have to do is look at the techs in the financial sector this stuff is being so manipulated it's making the 30's look like a totalitarian market.
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No surprise, all you have to do is look at the techs in the financial sector this stuff is being so manipulated it's making the 30's look like a totalitarian market.
Not saying I disagree, just looking for something more than a claim.
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gbers.......
goldman sachs reports today......expect the numbers to be fixed and positive. i expect a rally off this today. ;)
NT
Lehman, Goldman Profits Fall, but Beat Estimates ;)
March 18, 2008,
Two of Wall Street’s top investment banks reported earnings well below the heights of last year, but still ahead of analysts’ expectations ;) at a time when investors are still on edge following the collapse of Bear Stearns.
NT
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Okay, market sage of getbig, what say you for tomorrow? Does the rally continue, or will we see a pullback? I'd guess the latter, as there is nothing that really justifies the extent of today's level of optimism.
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Okay, market sage of getbig, what say you for tomorrow? Does the rally continue, or will we see a pullback? I'd guess the latter, as there is nothing that really justifies the extent of today's level of optimism.
IMHO, until overall market fundamentals change, selling into rallies would be the prudent strategy.
NT
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here was my quote on metals:
"if you've been in metals the last yr or so, now would be the time to take some profits."
jumping in at the all time highs always carries extra risk........not unlike the masses who jumped into the Dow at 14,000, while i was warning of a Dow crash.
buying any sector AT HISTORIC HIGHS is very un-warren buffett like.
keep in mind, the most successful long term traders on W.S. buy when the public is panicked, and sell when the public is euphoric. ;)
NT
March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold plunged the most since June 2006, leading a decline in commodity prices on speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease the pace of interest-rate cuts, boosting the appeal of stocks and bonds.
The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index fell 51.7554, or 3.5 percent, to 1,437.64 at 11:42 a.m. in New York, led by declines in silver, gold.
NT
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March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold plunged the most since June 2006, leading a decline in commodity prices on speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease the pace of interest-rate cuts, boosting the appeal of stocks and bonds.
The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index fell 51.7554, or 3.5 percent, to 1,437.64 at 11:42 a.m. in New York, led by declines in silver, gold.
NT
what do you make of this drop in gold?
manipulation? or a sell off for profit taking?
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a yr ago PAAS (silver) traded at 13.00, it now trades at 42.00
did i buy silver last yr ? yes. would i enter into a new position now ? probably not. if a did, i'd have a very tight stop loss in.
NT
like i said.....i would not be buying silver or gold at the top.
jumping in at the all time highs ? this is where the average investor typically gets slaughtered.
NT
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IMHO, until overall market fundamentals change, selling into rallies would be the prudent strategy.
NT
Wall Street gives up nearly 75% of the previous session's rally as investors retreat ;)
March 19, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street retreated Wednesday, with investors giving back a big chunk of the gains made in the previous session, with losses in financials and commodity stocks leading the way.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost nearly 300 points or 2.4%, according to early tallies. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index lost 2.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 2.6%.
NT
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Wall Street gives up nearly 75% of the previous session's rally as investors retreat ;)
March 19, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street retreated Wednesday, with investors giving back a big chunk of the gains made in the previous session, with losses in financials and commodity stocks leading the way.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost nearly 300 points or 2.4%, according to early tallies. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index lost 2.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 2.6%.
NT
Hahahaha The PPTeam is gonna be pissed.... ;D If we follow europes market for the day, then its gonna be dismal tommorrow......
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with that avatar, War-Guns would be an appropriate name ! ;D
PPT is currently working overtime....but not having much luck, other an occasional short cover rally with no follow through. (similar to yesterday and today)
BTW, with the fed finally sounding concerned about inflation, expect the overbought, high flying metals to get pounded some more.
NT
LOL. If commodities start to drop a little, will stocks rise a little???
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LOL. If commodities start to drop a little, will stocks rise a little???
rotation into certain beaten down sectors is slowly beginning. i'll keep you updated.
NT
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rotation into certain beaten down sectors is slowly beginning. i'll keep you updated.
NT
Alright ill stay out. Im hoping the dow hits bottom just so the world can see bush destoyed america.
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Alright ill stay out. Im hoping the dow hits bottom just so the world can see bush destoyed america.
i fully expect the Dow to head lower moving forward.
NT
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Alright ill stay out. Im hoping the dow hits bottom just so the world can see bush destoyed america.
I'd rather just see Bush, Cheney and the rest of the gang in jail.
A market crash will only hurt a bunch of innocent people and won't mean shit to Bush personally
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Alright ill stay out. Im hoping the dow hits bottom just so the world can see bush destoyed america.
Dude, everyone has a part to play in it.
Mainly it is America's fault for being so stupid. We are lazy, and care 100 times more about entertainment than education (thinking).
Blaming problems that have climaxed off of many many years of stupidity and consumption on one administration is just as dumb.
When is the last time the average American read a book on economics, the Constitution, financials of a business, etc.
We delegate everything in our lives to another person. Even though I hate Bush and the administration, I take responsibility for not having an active role to try and educate those around me to start asking questions and ALWAYS question those in power.
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Alright ill stay out. Im hoping the dow hits bottom just so the world can see bush destoyed america.
dude, never wish that.
i dont care what the world thinks, but I do care about our american way of life. I seriously hope we can fix things and save the economy. I'd rather keep our standard of living than "be right". Besides, the brainwashed sheep will blame the libs for an economy crash, you know this, and the rest of the world already knows the score.
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When is the last time the average American read a book on economics, the Constitution, financials of a business, etc.
We delegate everything in our lives to another person. Even though I hate Bush and the administration, I take responsibility for not having an active role to try and educate those around me to start asking questions and ALWAYS question those in power.
Amen to that.
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This week is an interesting case study in something I've noticed in the short time I've been trading as a hobby: the market almost always overreacts to news and events, then partially retraces later in the session or the next day.
There were two significant events this week: the Sunday announcement of JPM's takeover of Bear for $2/share (which had been trading at $80 two weeks earlier), and GS and LEH announcing earnings before Tuesday's session and beating the estimates.
So, Sunday night you just know the market's gonna get slaughtered on Monday. But if the market were efficient, wouldn't you think the adjustments would either be already priced into the market's much lower opening, or at the very least settle out in short order given everyone had this news prior to opening? Nope, as per usual people panic, overreact, and you get a nice steep decline all frickin' day long (not that I'm bitching, I made a killing on shorts Monday).
Now, what seems to happen a lot of the time is the next day the stocks in question regain some of their losses, as people have a chance to take a deep breath and realize things might have been beaten down too far and go shopping for bargains. However, this Tuesday you had a second piece of news to react to... GS and LEH beat earnings (never mind that they're down 50% from last year ::)). Does the earnings news justify a major rally? Of course not. The fundamental situation hasn't changed, the credit crisis is still there, and Lehman could easily find itself the next BSC. But, as usual the market overreacts, and the effect is magnified by the retracement of Monday's decline. Result: one of the best days the market has seen in a while.
So now it's Wednesday. What happens? People begin to realize that the size of yesterday's rally was unjustified given the fundamentals, and where do prices go? You guessed it, South.
Where does the market go from here? Who the hell knows, but if every day were as predictable as the last three we'd all be billionaires. I'm just parking my cash waiting for the next piece of news that the market can overreact to so I can ring the cash register again.
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This week is an interesting case study in something I've noticed in the short time I've been trading as a hobby: the market almost always overreacts to news and events, then partially retraces later in the session or the next day.
There were two significant events this week: the Sunday announcement of JPM's takeover of Bear for $2/share (which had been trading at $80 two weeks earlier), and GS and LEH announcing earnings before Tuesday's session and beating the estimates.
So, Sunday night you just know the market's gonna get slaughtered on Monday. But if the market were efficient, wouldn't you think the adjustments would either be already priced into the market's much lower opening, or at the very least settle out in short order given everyone had this news prior to opening? Nope, as per usual people panic, overreact, and you get a nice steep decline all frickin' day long (not that I'm bitching, I made a killing on shorts Monday).
Now, what seems to happen a lot of the time is the next day the stocks in question regain some of their losses, as people have a chance to take a deep breath and realize things might have been beaten down too far and go shopping for bargains. However, this Tuesday you had a second piece of news to react to... GS and LEH beat earnings (never mind that they're down 50% from last year ::)). Does the earnings news justify a major rally? Of course not. The fundamental situation hasn't changed, the credit crisis is still there, and Lehman could easily find itself the next BSC. But, as usual the market overreacts, and the effect is magnified by the retracement of Monday's decline. Result: one of the best days the market has seen in a while.
So now it's Wednesday. What happens? People begin to realize that the size of yesterday's rally was unjustified given the fundamentals, and where do prices go? You guessed it, South.
Where does the market go from here? Who the hell knows, but if every day were as predictable as the last three we'd all be billionaires. I'm just parking my cash waiting for the next piece of news that the market can overreact to so I can ring the cash register again.
I think you can do a lot financially and those that are very successful have realized two things about most Americans.
1. They are stupid
2. They are predictable
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Dude, everyone has a part to play in it.
Mainly it is America's fault for being so stupid. We are lazy, and care 100 times more about entertainment than education (thinking).
Blaming problems that have climaxed off of many many years of stupidity and consumption on one administration is just as dumb.
When is the last time the average American read a book on economics, the Constitution, financials of a business, etc.
We delegate everything in our lives to another person. Even though I hate Bush and the administration, I take responsibility for not having an active role to try and educate those around me to start asking questions and ALWAYS question those in power.
I feel that way too. I just didnt want to type it all over again. Thanks..
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dude, never wish that.
i dont care what the world thinks, but I do care about our american way of life. I seriously hope we can fix things and save the economy. I'd rather keep our standard of living than "be right". Besides, the brainwashed sheep will blame the libs for an economy crash, you know this, and the rest of the world already knows the score.
Well, I was just cutting to the chase. Theres been so many lies and deceit that I hope they burn in hell. Did you see cheney in his good morning america interveiw....the way he looked at her and said "SO"?
Fvcking evil like ive never seen... :-\
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cheney believes in what he's doing.
it's not about the $... he was worth hundreds of mil before he entered office. He's had 4 heart attacks as of 2000... he does this because he believes in the future of the USA. I know he's more hated than Bush, but he's pretty frank and direct about his intentions, whereas others lie about it.
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Mortgage firm needs to raise $1bn
Thornburg Mortgage shares
Thornburg Mortgage has said it is trying to raise almost $1bn in extra capital to avert a possible bankruptcy filing.
The lender, which specialises in big home loans, also plans to offer its lenders a 27% stake in the company.
The measures will significantly dilute the stakes of existing shareholders and the company's shares fell 47%.
Thornburg said that without the new capital it may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection.
Jumbo loans
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company warned that bankruptcy would be a possibility because it would have to sell off the rest of its mortgage assets at depressed prices.
Thornburg specialises in so-called jumbo loans of more than $417,000, which means that until recently they were not eligible for funding from the government-sponsored mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Thornburg's problems are another sign of the credit crunch spreading from sub-prime lenders to others.
It owes money to five lenders, which are affiliates of Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS.
The fresh falls in Thornburg's share price followed a 32.4% fall on Monday last week after the company said it could not meet demands for extra cash and collateral from its lenders.
-
This week is an interesting case study in something I've noticed in the short time I've been trading as a hobby: the market almost always overreacts to news and events, then partially retraces later in the session or the next day.
There were two significant events this week: the Sunday announcement of JPM's takeover of Bear for $2/share (which had been trading at $80 two weeks earlier), and GS and LEH announcing earnings before Tuesday's session and beating the estimates.
So, Sunday night you just know the market's gonna get slaughtered on Monday. But if the market were efficient, wouldn't you think the adjustments would either be already priced into the market's much lower opening, or at the very least settle out in short order given everyone had this news prior to opening? Nope, as per usual people panic, overreact, and you get a nice steep decline all frickin' day long (not that I'm bitching, I made a killing on shorts Monday).
Now, what seems to happen a lot of the time is the next day the stocks in question regain some of their losses, as people have a chance to take a deep breath and realize things might have been beaten down too far and go shopping for bargains. However, this Tuesday you had a second piece of news to react to... GS and LEH beat earnings (never mind that they're down 50% from last year ::)). Does the earnings news justify a major rally? Of course not. The fundamental situation hasn't changed, the credit crisis is still there, and Lehman could easily find itself the next BSC. But, as usual the market overreacts, and the effect is magnified by the retracement of Monday's decline. Result: one of the best days the market has seen in a while.
So now it's Wednesday. What happens? People begin to realize that the size of yesterday's rally was unjustified given the fundamentals, and where do prices go? You guessed it, South.
Where does the market go from here? Who the hell knows, but if every day were as predictable as the last three we'd all be billionaires. I'm just parking my cash waiting for the next piece of news that the market can overreact to so I can ring the cash register again.
goat, what you're seeing is typical in a bear market. no such thing as a 420 point rally in a bull market, why ? because there are very few short positions in bull markets.
in this current market environment, everyone and their grandmother is short. so when marginal "good news" comes out, the shorts panic and cover, resulting in a big one day "rally" with typically no follow-thru.
in order to sustain a rally, new money needs to enter the market, not just shorts covering. (as you've witnessed recently)
this is the underlying reason i stress selling into any rally.
i hope this helps.
NT
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Mortgage firm needs to raise $1bn
Thornburg Mortgage shares
Thornburg Mortgage has said it is trying to raise almost $1bn in extra capital to avert a possible bankruptcy filing.
The lender, which specialises in big home loans, also plans to offer its lenders a 27% stake in the company.
The measures will significantly dilute the stakes of existing shareholders and the company's shares fell 47%.
Thornburg said that without the new capital it may be forced to seek bankruptcy protection.
Jumbo loans
In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company warned that bankruptcy would be a possibility because it would have to sell off the rest of its mortgage assets at depressed prices.
Thornburg specialises in so-called jumbo loans of more than $417,000, which means that until recently they were not eligible for funding from the government-sponsored mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Thornburg's problems are another sign of the credit crunch spreading from sub-prime lenders to others.
It owes money to five lenders, which are affiliates of Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS.
The fresh falls in Thornburg's share price followed a 32.4% fall on Monday last week after the company said it could not meet demands for extra cash and collateral from its lenders.
Whats crazy is that this scenario is going to start happening almost daily with other banks. Who in the hell bought a 479,000 home anyway?? I have money, and when i walk in some of my friends homes that look like ceasars palace in vegas....I just nod my head and ask "WHY"? Of course theyre trying to sell and are upside down now and the economy is forcing their jobs to cut back hours or layoff so they'll add to the list of foreclosures soon.
Most of these guys are 10 to 20 yrs younger than I am...emotional buyers.
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goat, what you're seeing is typical in a bear market. no such thing as a 420 point rally in a bull market, why ? because there are very few short positions in bull markets.
in this current market environment, everyone and their grandmother is short. so when marginal "good news" comes out, the shorts panic and cover, resulting in a big one day "rally" with typically no follow-thru.
in order to sustain a rally, new money needs to enter the market, not just shorts covering. (as you've witnessed recently)
this is the underlying reason i stress selling into any rally.
i hope this helps.
NT
Good explaination, thanks! I have noticed that it's been much easier to make big single-day money in the bear market (mostly on shorts, but also playing the counter reaction that comes later long) than it was in the bull market last year. By making smart plays, I did make good money last year on longs, but it was smaller amounts spread over more days. Since the first of the year, after switching AAPL plays long to short and riding it down, I've made single-day killings by playing the trends on financials following news.
All things considered, I like the bear market better... not only because of the trade profits, but also because I'm far more confident in the reasons WHY I'm making particular moves, and my win/loss percentage is far, far higher. I understand that can't be sustained forever, since I appreciate your point about the need for new money, but it sure is fun while it lasts.
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goat, today (thurs) was another perfect situation for another short cover rally. with the long weekend ahead, traders tend to "square their positions" beforehand. net result, a 261 point Dow rally off this "great economic news" posted below. you'll notice the disconnect between market action and the economic news, which is typical in this type of environment.
today's market news:
Leading indicators in 5th straight drop
The Conference Board's index down streak is the longest since 2001.
3/20/08
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- An indicator of the economy's future performance fell for the fifth straight month in February, the first time that has happened since 2001, according to a report released Thursday.
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise to 378,000
Continuing claims hit highest level since 2004
3/20/08
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Continuing to signal a weak labor market, the Labor Department reported Thursday that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 22,000 to stand at 378,000 for the week ended March 15.
Economists see readings consistently higher than 350,000 as signaling significant weakening in the labor market, and this level has been breached since late January.
The claims data are "increasingly throwing off recession signals," wrote John Ryding, U.S. chief economist for Bear Stearns
NT
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Whats crazy is that this scenario is going to start happening almost daily with other banks. Who in the hell bought a 479,000 home anyway?? I have money, and when i walk in some of my friends homes that look like ceasars palace in vegas....I just nod my head and ask "WHY"? Of course theyre trying to sell and are upside down now and the economy is forcing their jobs to cut back hours or layoff so they'll add to the list of foreclosures soon.
Most of these guys are 10 to 20 yrs younger than I am...emotional buyers.
You should see the area where I live, 60 year old homes trying to sell for 700,000 dollars and they are ready for a wrecking ball. I don't get it.
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You should see the area where I live, 60 year old homes trying to sell for 700,000 dollars and they are ready for a wrecking ball. I don't get it.
Wow. You know what will happen next?? The gov will jump in to regulate the bancruptcy laws because its going to go thru the roof!!!! Theyll cap and make it impossible for people to get out even tho they allowed them to get into a crisis.
I know the people are to blame also, but this was predatory lending at its worst. I remember getting at least 5 peices of mail a day everyday asking me to pull out $100,000 of equity on a home i just bought 2 yrs before.......I knew that money wasnt mine... 8)
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goat, today (thurs) was another perfect situation for another short cover rally. with the long weekend ahead, traders tend to "square their positions" beforehand. net result, a 261 point Dow rally off this "great economic news" posted below. you'll notice the disconnect between market action and the economic news, which is typical in this type of environment.
So do you think come Monday all those traders who covered will get back in short, thus driving the market down for the day? I stayed out on Thursday, because I really didn't have a good read on what to expect.
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So do you think come Monday all those traders who covered will get back in short, thus driving the market down for the day? I stayed out on Thursday, because I really didn't have a good read on what to expect.
goat, selling into "short cover rallies" will continue IMHO.
generally speaking during bear markets, short traders tend to take profits before the weekend to lock in profits. thursday's market action (despite more bad economic news) confirmed that's what occurred. again, typical in this type of market.
NT
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I'd rather just see Bush, Cheney and the rest of the gang in jail.[...]
Well, that will not be happening. Apparently they've been hard at work covering their tracks and trying to get congress and the other crooks to sign a petition of immunity.
These are crooked individuals.
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Neurotoxin, excuse me for getting away from the issue, but I got my ass burning seeing all these Europeans shopping at Century 21 in Manhattan, spending 5,000-10,000 per shopping spree and little old me looking out for bargains in the sales area. I know the dollar-euro exchange is 1.5-1.6 right now, but after seeing all these people spending all this money... it got me thinking: All other variables being constant, and the value of the dollar tied to the price of gold, at today's prices, wouldn't the dollar buy you 3 euros nowadays?
I swear to God I went into a Starbucks and saw a little (must've been German) kid, around 5-ish, pull out a $ 50 bill from his pocket, in front of his parents, to pay for a tofee caramel cake. I almost shit all over my pants right there!
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Neuro,
Updates Please?
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I know the people are to blame also, but this was predatory lending at its worst. I remember getting at least 5 peices of mail a day everyday asking me to pull out $100,000 of equity on a home i just bought 2 yrs before.......I knew that money wasnt mine...
You were one of the smart ones, but I can't feel sorry for people who borrowed beyond their means. The term "predatory lending" is just an excuse for those who didn't have enough common sense to understand their loans.
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Neuro,
Updates Please?
influenza ......be back soon.
NT
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influenza ......be back soon.
NT
G o a t b o y recently fought influenza. I kicked its ass, too! :D
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US consumer confidence has fallen to a five-year low, according to the closely watched Conference Board report.
Its index of consumer sentiment fell this month to 64.5, its lowest showing since March 2003.
The situation was even worse regarding the Conference Board's forward-looking expectations index, which fell to 47.9, the weakest performance in 34 years.
A growing number of surveys have shown that US consumer confidence is falling sharply because of recession fears.
Interest rate pressure
"Consumers' outlook for business conditions, the job market and their income prospects is quite pessimistic and suggests further weakening may be on the horizon," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's research centre.
The latest consumer confidence data may increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower US interest rates still further.
Earlier this month it cut rates to 2.25% from 3%, its sixth reduction since mid-September.
Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at Banc of America Securities, said the latest Conference Board figures were "very weak".
"I would certainly call these recession-type numbers," he said.
"Even if the financial market stabilises we are likely to see the labour market weaken for a couple of quarters."
Housing market woes
The Conference Board data comes 10 days after the separate University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level in 16 years.
The University of Michigan said its index had only previously been that low during past recessions.
US consumer sentiment has been knocked by the sharp downturn in the housing market.
Centred on the so-called sub-prime mortgage sector, record 2007 home loan defaults sparked last summer's bad mortgage debt crisis which spread to the wider credit markets.
Economic Outlook Group economist Bernard Baumohl said US consumer pessimism "reflects the great anxiety that households have because there are just so many uncertainties that everyone faces".
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US house prices fell at an annual rate of 11.4% in January, according to the latest monthly Standard & Poor's/Case-Schiller index.
This was the monthly index's biggest year-on-year decline in 21 years.
The latest snapshot of the slump in the US property market, it comes a day after the main US estate agent body said prices fell 8.2% in February.
The S&P/Case-Schiller index tracks the prices of homes in 10 major metropolitan areas across the US.
Its wider composite index, which covers prices in 20 cities, was down 10.7% in January compared with a year ago, the first time both S&P indexes had dropped by double-digit percentages.
"It shows that the housing correction is still under way," said Lehman Brothers economist Michelle Meyer.
US property prices have fallen sharply on the back of record home loan defaults centred on the sub-prime sector, which offers mortgages to people with poor credit ratings.
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It'll take all of this year for the housing to bottom out. Alot of people are holding on but will give out on making a payment on a home thats upside down. Lot s of walk aways and bancruptcys coming this year and next.
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It'll take all of this year for the housing to bottom out. Alot of people are holding on but will give out on making a payment on a home thats upside down. Lot s of walk aways and bancruptcys coming this year and next.
Jim Cramer says "we've hit bottom, and shorting is suicide at this point". Seriously, that clown has made being wrong into an artform. ;D
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Jim Cramer says "we've hit bottom, and shorting is suicide at this point". Seriously, that clown has made being wrong into an artform. ;D
I have no idea how that guy got his own show.....hes paid to be stupid. Do the opposite of everything he says and youll make out like a bandit.....lol
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he's been right in the past on a lot of things.
he's a spokeman for the dollar now... convincing people to throw their $ into the market keeps it alive. I heard it all day on CNBC today... BUY NOW... BUY NOW.... CNN money was saying the same thing. Put all your $ into the market now!
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Citigroup shares fall on forecast
Citigroup has been hard hit by the credit crisis, shares in Citigroup have slumped after a report forecast more heavy losses for US banks due to the credit crisis.
Research from fund manager Oppenheimer said that Citigroup could lose up to $13.1bn (£6.5bn; 8bn euros) in the first three months of the year.
Citigroup and other banks have lost vast sums on investments made in assets backed by US mortgages that have been hit by falling US house prices.
Citigroup shares lost almost 6%; other banks were down sharply too.
Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wachovia can also expect to see a sharp drop in their profits, according to Oppenheimer.
The report also said the situation could get worse this year.
In October the fund management company correctly predicted that Citigroup would have to cut its dividend - the payments made to shareholders - and seek extra funds.
The bank reported a $9.83bn net loss for the last three months of 2007.
Chief executive Vikram Pandit said the loss had been caused by a $18.1bn exposure to bad mortgage debt and was "clearly unacceptable".
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US durable goods orders declined 1.7% in February, official figures have shown, the latest indication that the US economy faces the risk of recession.
The fall surprised analysts, who had expected the latest monthly data from the Commerce Department to show a 0.8% rise for last month.
The latest manufacturing data came as separate official figures showed yet another monthly fall in US home sales.
Sales of new houses fell 1.8% last month to a 13-year low.
They declined to an annual rate of 590,000.
The figure, which was also from the Commerce Department, marked the fourth straight month that sales of new homes had declined.
'Real downturn'
Sales of durable goods - those designed to last more than three years - fell by a revised 4.7% in January.
Excluding defence goods and aircraft, February's drop worsened to 2.6%.
Machinery orders slumped 13.3% last month, the steepest decline since records began in 1992, while car orders dropped 2.7%.
"This [durable goods] report further corroborates the notion that, in addition to the financial crisis, the US faces a real economic downturn," said TJ Marta, a fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
Other analysts said both latest manufacturing and housing figures will increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates further.
They come a day after a separate report indicated a sharp downturn in US consumer confidence.
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Citigroup shares fall on forecast
C was my short today. :) Most of that move was pre-market, though. I caught 2 points intraday. The nice thing was it only moved in one direction for the most part, but I was hoping for more.
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he's been right in the past on a lot of things.
Are you kidding me? He was telling people to buy KO and MO in mid-January after everyone with a brain had already figured that play out and they had peaked and were already on the way down, and he was still pushing financials in February for christ's sake!
War-horse is right. You could make a fortune doing the exact opposite of whatever he says.
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Bear Stearns chairman sells stake
The chairman of beleaguered US investment bank, Bear Stearns, has sold his entire stake in the firm as a takeover by JP Morgan Chase looms.
James Cayne received $61m ($31m) for his holding which at one stage was worth close to $1bn.
Analysts say that Mr Cayne offloading all his shares is an indication that investors cannot expect a higher price for their stake.
Bear Stearns is the most high-profile US victim of the credit crunch.
It was forced to seek emergency funding from JP Morgan Chase and the Federal Reserve of New York on 14 March.
News of Mr Cayne's move - revealed after Thursday trading - pushed Bear's share price down by about 5%.
Job cuts
The firm had been at the centre of the US bad mortgage debt crisis which last summer sparked the global credit shortage, and there had been growing speculation that it was struggling to fund its daily business.
Three days later JP Morgan Chase turned its rescue of Bear Stearns into a takeover bid, initially offering just $2 (£1) a share.
At the start of this week, JP Morgan Chase increased its offer to $10 a share, following criticism that its initial bid was too low.
Some job cuts among Bear Stearns' 15,000 staff are expected when JP Morgan Chase completes its takeover
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Oil prices went above $108 a barrel after one of Iraq's main export pipelines was blown up.
A company official said damage would cut Basra's exports by a third, adding to supply fears and increasing concern about stability in the region.
The rise extended Wednesday's gains of $4 a barrel after a US report showed lower-than-expected petrol stocks.
A sharp sell-off of all commodities last week took oil below $100 after investors cashed in their gains.
The price of New York light sweet crude oil closed at $107.58 dollars per barrel having hit $108.22 dollars.
Another key measure of the oil price, London Brent crude, finsihed $1.01 higher at $105, having peaked at $105.60 during the session.
Last week, the price of oil reached a record high of $111.80.
Iraq fighting
The fighting in Basra escalated this week after a military operation was launched against militias in the city.
"We see events in Iraq as having taking a dangerous turn with the stability of the southern oil system now starting to become a potential concern," said Barclays Capital analysts in a note.
Iraq is a member of producers' cartel Opec and one of the world's biggest oil exporters.
The prospect of export problems in Iraq compounded supply fears raised on Wednesday in the US.
The US Department of Energy said that petrol stocks were falling as refiners cut production because high oil prices were squeezing their profit margins.
Dollar weakness
Traders said the weak US dollar was also supportive to oil prices, as it becomes cheaper to buy oil for non-dollar investors.
The US dollar has remained low against key currencies, including the euro, sterling and Japanese yen, which helped to support oil prices.
The greenback was virtually unchanged against the euro at $1.5795 as a series of disappointing US economic data on durable goods orders and home sales failed to lift hopes that a US economic recovery was in sight.
This sparked a wave of buying in gold, a hedge against inflation and a haven in times of financial market volatility.
Gold prices rose as high as $954.50 an ounce, a one-week high, before reversing all the day's gains to trade at $946.33.
The precious metal reached a lifetime high of $1,030.80 an ounce on 17 March and many analysts were confident that it would reach this level again if the dollar remained low and oil prices stayed high.
"We are pretty bullish on gold over the medium-term," said Dan Smith, metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.
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LOL. Bindare carries on NT legacy thread... ;D
If I was a shareholder of bear sterns id be suing like no tomorrow. I think there is a class action already started... The insiders had to have known the ship hit the ice and was sinking. Remember all the stuff enron pulled, trying to cover to get out..
Just bad stuff. But then again it is a risk being in the market, the small print on the agreements let you know. Remember riding the hedge fund stuff last year.
Hahahaha T-bills used to a safe bet but even now its speculative...
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I'm talking back in the day. His 1991 war rampup and quick takedown predictions were dead on. He made such a killing he took 3 months off the market just to spend it.
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Equity Loans as Next Round in Credit Crisis
Little by little, millions of Americans surrendered equity in their homes in recent years. Lulled by good times, they borrowed — sometimes heavily — against the roofs over their heads.
As the housing market spirals downward, home equity loans, which turn home sweet home into cash sweet cash, are becoming the next flash point in the mortgage crisis.
Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans — and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back.
To get it, many lenders are taking the extraordinary step of preventing some people from selling their homes or refinancing their mortgages unless they pay off all or part of their home equity loans first. In the past, when home prices were not falling, lenders did not resort to these measures.
Such tactics are impeding efforts by policy makers to help struggling homeowners get easier terms on their mortgages and stem the rising tide of foreclosures. But at a time when each day seems to bring more bad news for the financial industry, lenders defend the hard-nosed maneuvers as a way to keep their own losses from deepening.
It is a remarkable turnabout for the many Americans who have come to regard a home as an A.T.M. with three bedrooms and 1.5 baths. When times were good, they borrowed against their homes to pay for all sorts of things, from new cars to college educations to a home theater.
Lenders also encouraged many aspiring homeowners to take out not one but two mortgages simultaneously — ordinary ones plus “piggyback” loans — to avoid putting any cash down.
The result is a nation that only half-owns its homes. While homeownership climbed to record heights in recent years, home equity — the value of the properties minus the mortgages against them — has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the Federal Reserve.
Lenders holding first mortgages get first dibs on borrowers’ cash or on the homes should people fall behind on their payments. Banks that made home equity loans are second in line. This arrangement sometimes pits one lender against another.
When borrowers default on their mortgages, lenders foreclose and sell the homes to recoup their money. But when homes sell for less than the value of their mortgages and home equity loans — a situation known as a short sale — lenders with first liens must be compensated fully before holders of second or third liens get a dime.
In places like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where home prices have fallen significantly, second-lien holders can be left with little or nothing once first mortgages are paid.
In December, 5.7 percent of home equity lines of credit were delinquent or in default, up from 4.5 percent in 2006, according to Moody’s Economy.com.
Lenders and investors who hold home equity loans are not giving up easily, however. Instead, they are opposing short sales. And some banks holding second liens are also opposing refinancings for first mortgages, a little-used power they have under the law, in an effort to force borrowers to pay down their loans.
“Acknowledging a loss is the most difficult thing to do,” said Micheal Thompson, the executive director of the Iowa Mediation Service, which has been working with delinquent borrowers and lenders. “You have to deal with the reality of what you are facing today.”
While he has been able to strike some deals, Mr. Thompson said that many mortgage companies he talks with refuse to compromise. Holders of second mortgages often agree to short sales and other changes only if first-lien holders pay them a small sum, say $10,000, or 10 percent, on a $100,000 debt.
Disagreements arise when the first and second liens are held by different banks or investors. If one lender holds both debts, it is in their interest to find a solution.
When deals cannot be worked out, second-lien holders can pursue the outstanding balance even after foreclosure, sometimes through collection agencies. The soured home equity debts can linger on credit records and make it harder for people to borrow in the future.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/business/27loan.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
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Equity Loans as Next Round in Credit Crisis
Little by little, millions of Americans surrendered equity in their homes in recent years. Lulled by good times, they borrowed — sometimes heavily — against the roofs over their heads.
As the housing market spirals downward, home equity loans, which turn home sweet home into cash sweet cash, are becoming the next flash point in the mortgage crisis.
Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans — and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back.
To get it, many lenders are taking the extraordinary step of preventing some people from selling their homes or refinancing their mortgages unless they pay off all or part of their home equity loans first. In the past, when home prices were not falling, lenders did not resort to these measures.
Such tactics are impeding efforts by policy makers to help struggling homeowners get easier terms on their mortgages and stem the rising tide of foreclosures. But at a time when each day seems to bring more bad news for the financial industry, lenders defend the hard-nosed maneuvers as a way to keep their own losses from deepening.
It is a remarkable turnabout for the many Americans who have come to regard a home as an A.T.M. with three bedrooms and 1.5 baths. When times were good, they borrowed against their homes to pay for all sorts of things, from new cars to college educations to a home theater.
Lenders also encouraged many aspiring homeowners to take out not one but two mortgages simultaneously — ordinary ones plus “piggyback” loans — to avoid putting any cash down.
The result is a nation that only half-owns its homes. While homeownership climbed to record heights in recent years, home equity — the value of the properties minus the mortgages against them — has fallen below 50 percent for the first time, according to the Federal Reserve.
Lenders holding first mortgages get first dibs on borrowers’ cash or on the homes should people fall behind on their payments. Banks that made home equity loans are second in line. This arrangement sometimes pits one lender against another.
When borrowers default on their mortgages, lenders foreclose and sell the homes to recoup their money. But when homes sell for less than the value of their mortgages and home equity loans — a situation known as a short sale — lenders with first liens must be compensated fully before holders of second or third liens get a dime.
In places like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, where home prices have fallen significantly, second-lien holders can be left with little or nothing once first mortgages are paid.
In December, 5.7 percent of home equity lines of credit were delinquent or in default, up from 4.5 percent in 2006, according to Moody’s Economy.com.
Lenders and investors who hold home equity loans are not giving up easily, however. Instead, they are opposing short sales. And some banks holding second liens are also opposing refinancings for first mortgages, a little-used power they have under the law, in an effort to force borrowers to pay down their loans.
“Acknowledging a loss is the most difficult thing to do,” said Micheal Thompson, the executive director of the Iowa Mediation Service, which has been working with delinquent borrowers and lenders. “You have to deal with the reality of what you are facing today.”
While he has been able to strike some deals, Mr. Thompson said that many mortgage companies he talks with refuse to compromise. Holders of second mortgages often agree to short sales and other changes only if first-lien holders pay them a small sum, say $10,000, or 10 percent, on a $100,000 debt.
Disagreements arise when the first and second liens are held by different banks or investors. If one lender holds both debts, it is in their interest to find a solution.
When deals cannot be worked out, second-lien holders can pursue the outstanding balance even after foreclosure, sometimes through collection agencies. The soured home equity debts can linger on credit records and make it harder for people to borrow in the future.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/business/27loan.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Way to step it up and take over.
You need to sift through more of it and boil it down to a few lines like NT does :)
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Way to step it up and take over.
You need to sift through more of it and boil it down to a few lines like NT does :)
NT has been dead on in all of his market predictions. I check this thread daily to see if he's made any posts with information I can trade on.
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Way to step it up and take over.
You need to sift through more of it and boil it down to a few lines like NT does :)
Yeah I know but don't have the time, wish I did.
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The US Federal Reserve will make a further $100bn (£50bn) available to major banks in April, trying to ease concerns about a global credit crunch.
The sum, offered across two auctions, is in addition to $260bn provided in short-term loans to the end of March.
Other unorthodox steps include the Fed allowing investment banks to borrow from it directly - previously only possible for commercial banks.
The hope is that the extra cash will ease the fears that banks have of lending money to each other, which have pushed short-term interest rates to record highs, despite the Fed's series of interest rate cuts.
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The US Federal Reserve will make a further $100bn (£50bn) available to major banks in April, trying to ease concerns about a global credit crunch.
The sum, offered across two auctions, is in addition to $260bn provided in short-term loans to the end of March.
Other unorthodox steps include the Fed allowing investment banks to borrow from it directly - previously only possible for commercial banks.
The hope is that the extra cash will ease the fears that banks have of lending money to each other, which have pushed short-term interest rates to record highs, despite the Fed's series of interest rate cuts.
What we are doing is in essence, killing our childrens future. I never considered that the fed could go bankrupt..(I guess it did when we ran out of gold) But now its in the mortgage business........geez.
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What we are doing is in essence, killing our childrens future.
Someone coined the phrase "Financial Child Abuse"
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gbers.......... despite all the recent negative economic news, the PPT/Fed have managed to stop/slow the free fall of our stock market. with the Fed interupting in the normal business cycle, we are in unchartered waters.
as i've stated before, our market ran from 10,000 to 14,200 based on strong housing and ones ability to use their home as an ATM machine. (that's over) without the PPT, this market would've already retraced back to the 10k area. also, i personally would not buy into CNBC's "the market has bottomed" hype. i, nor my colleagues believe that's the case.
with earning's season about to begin.....things should get interesting.
btw, it's good to be back......influenza sucks !
Investors pull almost $100 billion out of equity funds
March 31 2008
Investors worldwide pulled close to $100bn out of equity funds in the first three months of this year – a record shift that accelerates a longer-term trend away from US and western European stock markets
NT
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gbers.........take a look.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vHB0ncbTgKj0.asf
NT
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Interesting:
By The Associated Press
Mon Mar 31, 3:12 AM ET
The Bush administration's plan to overhaul financial regulation, as outlined in a summary obtained by The Associated Press, would:
_Expand the role of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets to include the entire financial sector rather than just financial markets.
_Create a federal commission, the Mortgage Origination Commission, to develop uniform, minimum licensing standards for mortgage market participants.
_Close the Office of Thrift Supervision, which regulates thrift institutions, and move those functions to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates banks.
_Merge the functions of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission into the Securities and Exchange Commission to create one agency to provide unified oversight of the futures and securities industries.
_Establish an Office of National Insurance within the Treasury Department to regulate those in the insurance industry who want to operate under an optional federal charter.
_Work to establish as a long-term goal three major regulators: the Federal Reserve as a "market stability regulator"; a "prudential financial regulator" to take over the functions of five separate banking regulators; and a "business conduct regulator" to regulate business conduct and consumer protection.
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And they say dems grow govt. ::) Under the guise of "our protection", the govt will now have unlimited control to manipulate and destroy citizen at will.
This better not pass ,or a miltia call to order, for a staged "National crisis" will put us all in camps.
BTW, Welcome back NT.
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Interesting:
By The Associated Press
Mon Mar 31, 3:12 AM ET
The Bush administration's plan to overhaul financial regulation, as outlined in a summary obtained by The Associated Press, would:
_Expand the role of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets to include the entire financial sector rather than just financial markets.
the financial sector controls the whole market. no surprise behind the PPT/Fed wanting complete control of it.
NT
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And they say dems grow govt. ::) Under the guise of "our protection", the govt will now have unlimited control to manipulate and destroy citizen at will.
This better not pass ,or a miltia call to order, for a staged "National crisis" will put us all in camps.
BTW, Welcome back NT.
thanks WH, it's good to be back ! :D
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gbers....
The Fed & The Markets
on a net basis, all the damage for the first quarter was done in the days leading up to each Fed action. in the three trading days before each Fed move ... a total of 15 days since there was some overlapping ...... the S.&P. 500 fell almost 145 points and the Dow Jones industrial average lost 1,003 points.
on the other 46 trading days during the quarter, a net nothing happened. The S&P was up about two points, and the Dow was down less than one point.
what we have here is a picture of a Fed that follows the market, and of a market that repeatedly rallies on the news of a Fed move, only to fall again as more bad news comes out.
NT
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what we have here is a picture of a Fed that follows the market, and of a market that repeatedly rallies on the news of a Fed move, only to fall again as more bad news comes out.
Otherwise known as "news you can use". :D
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Otherwise known as "news you can use". :D
exactly ! 8)
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gbers.....
Credit crisis widens: UBS predicts $12B quarterly loss
April 1 2008 Switzerland (AP) — Swiss bank UBS AG said Tuesday it expected to post first-quarter net losses of $12 billion and would seek $15 billion in new capital as it attempts to recover from the blow it took from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis.
Switzerland's largest bank, one of the hardest-hit in the global credit crunch, also said in a statement it seeks losses and write-downs of approximately $19 billion on U.S. real estate and related credit positions
NT
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And yet the financials gap up big, and continue up through 10:45. ::)
Have I mentioned I love Citigroup? You can always count on that pissy little $22 stock to move 2-4% intraday one direction or the other. ;D
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And yet the financials gap up big, and continue up through 10:45. ::)
Have I mentioned I love Citigroup? You can always count on that pissy little $22 stock to move 2-4% intraday one direction or the other. ;D
April 1, 2008 (MarketWatch)
U.S. stocks cheer Lehman's ability to raise capital
Economic data aren't that great, but not as bad as feared
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Tuesday climbed higher for a second day Tuesday after a measure of manufacturing activity proved brighter than expected, and separate offerings of fresh equity from Wall Street's Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Swiss bank UBS AG drew warm receptions.
"Investment banks are losing money and need to raise money in the capital markets, and fortunately they are doing it," said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors.
The Dow industrials were up 391.00 points, or 3.1%, to 12,641.66.
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"Healthy demand abroad has boosted exports of manufactured goods, offsetting some of the strain from weak domestic demand
gbers..........
no real positive news today, but enough to force another short cover rally. keep in mind this type of market action represents a weak/fragile market.
NT
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gbers...
UBS to Write Down Another $19 Billion
NY Times April 1, 2008
PARIS — UBS, the largest Swiss bank, said Tuesday that it would write down another $19 billion related to the American real estate market and said that its chairman, Marcel Ospel, would step down.
UBS said the write-down would result in a first-quarter loss of about $12 billion, and that it would seek new capital of about $15 billion, the second time it has announced plans to raise money since the credit markets began to contract.
NT
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gbers....
Lehman Raises $4 Billion to Quell Critics
By REUTERS
Published: April 1, 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc raised $4 billion of capital on Tuesday by selling convertible preferred stock in a deal designed to stop questions about the Wall Street investment bank's stability.
NT
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gbers..........
no real positive news today, but enough to force another short cover rally. keep in mind this type of market action represents a weak/fragile market.
NT
Are you thinking this retraces tomorrow, or not until the next piece of negative news?
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Are you thinking this retraces tomorrow, or not until the next piece of negative news?
yes. the market is now in a trading range of 11,700 - 12,700. i expect a higher opening on Weds. that is faided/sold off.
goat, without positive earnings.....we probably sit in this range for some time.
btw, money is slowly rotating back into Tech and out of metals. ;)
NT
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Wow... Bernanke talks shit on the economy, the dow drops like a rock, then half an hour in it takes a hard bounce off 12600 and rockets up well past the open. WTF?
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btw, money is slowly rotating back into Tech and out of metals. ;)
Jim Cramer: "Buy gold! It's going to $1600!". ROFL, what a jackass. ;D
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My play on C today: in long @ 24.40 after waiting a while to see if the trend was going to hold, just closed the position @ 24.97, since the market is going south and the stock is going sideways. 2.3% in 40 minutes... gotta love it.
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Wow... Bernanke talks shit on the economy, the dow drops like a rock, then half an hour in it takes a hard bounce off 12600 and rockets up well past the open. WTF?
Fed/PPT manipulation have the shorts extremely skidish and on edge. everyone's wondering......what story is next ? ???
NT
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Goat have you read the thread here about the PPT that supports false numbers to slow the eventual downturn in the market.
Ever since NT posted it, weve seen it happen many times.....Just more knowledge to work with. 8)
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Fed/PPT manipulation have the shorts extremely skidish and on edge. everyone's wondering......what story is next ? ???
You can say that again. This volitility is teh awesome! Second trade on C: in short @24.83, trailing stop took me out at @24.25. I wish every day was this "skidish and on edge".
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Goat have you read the thread here about the PPT that supports false numbers to slow the eventual downturn in the market.
Ever since NT posted it, weve seen it happen many times.....Just more knowledge to work with. 8)
Today's $DJI below. The three run-ups that are obviously fighting the daily trend... work of the PPT, augmented by short covers?
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Today's $DJI below. The three run-ups that are obviously fighting the daily trend... work of the PPT, augmented by short covers?
not necessarily. but when the PPT needs a rally, we usually get one. also, always keep a close eye on GS. ;)
NT
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gbers...
Bernanke Says U.S. Economy May Slip Into a Recession
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time that a U.S. recession is possible because homebuilding, employment and consumer spending will deteriorate.
``It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,'' Bernanke told Congress's Joint Economic Committee today. He also said the Fed's emergency loan to Bear Stearns Cos. followed a March 13 warning by the firm that it would have to file for bankruptcy the next day.
NT
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gbers...
Bernanke Says U.S. Economy May Slip Into a Recession
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged for the first time that a U.S. recession is possible because homebuilding, employment and consumer spending will deteriorate.
``It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,'' Bernanke told Congress's Joint Economic Committee today. He also said the Fed's emergency loan to Bear Stearns Cos. followed a March 13 warning by the firm that it would have to file for bankruptcy the next day.
NT
I don't know if I should laugh or cry when this guy opens his mouth.
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gbers...
Bernanke Says U.S. Economy May Slip Into a Recession
Wouldn't you say a 6-month recession is already priced into the market? Unless the credit crisis gets worse, there's no reason to see a Dow lower than its low from a few weeks ago, is there? Anyone with mortgage-backed CDO's on their books have already pretty much written them down to nothing. CEO's are under enormous pressure to try to value these things, and not being able to, they're likely erring on the side of caution. What Bernanke needs to focus on now is keeping inflation from getting out of hand. Every time he cuts rates the dollar falls, oil spikes, and the fallout ripples through the economy.
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Wouldn't you say a 6-month recession is already priced into the market? Unless the credit crisis gets worse, there's no reason to see a Dow lower than its low from a few weeks ago, is there?
Depends, how much have the Afghan poppy fields been producing so far? ;D
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Wouldn't you say a 6-month recession is already priced into the market? Unless the credit crisis gets worse, there's no reason to see a Dow lower than its low from a few weeks ago, is there? Anyone with mortgage-backed CDO's on their books have already pretty much written them down to nothing. CEO's are under enormous pressure to try to value these things, and not being able to, they're likely erring on the side of caution. What Bernanke needs to focus on now is keeping inflation from getting out of hand. Every time he cuts rates the dollar falls, oil spikes, and the fallout ripples through the economy.
valid points goat. imo, we probably trade sideways in a range now. unless something unforeseen occurs. currently, much of the bad news is priced into the market. ??? breaking out from the 11.700-12,700 range may be difficult, but nothing should be considered impossible w/ the PPT working overtime.
honestly goat, i've been involved w/ markets for many years and have never experienced this type of intervention by our government in a "free market system".
normal market psychology should be discarded in this type of environment.
NT
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honestly goat, i've been involved w/ markets for many years and have never experienced this type of intervention by our government in a "free market system".
normal market psychology should be discarded in this type of environment.
Having not traded actively until recently, I don't have any perspective on what market reactions have been historically, but in the current market it has been stupidly easy to make money because you get wild swings on news (overreactions, retracments) and all it takes is identifying and following the trend, which most days seems to be good for a few percentage points, followed by an equally steep reversal.
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Having not traded actively until recently, I don't have any perspective on what market reactions have been historically, but in the current market it has been stupidly easy to make money because you get wild swings on news (overreactions, retracments) and all it takes is identifying and following the trend, which most days seems to be good for a few percentage points, followed by an equally steep reversal.
typical of bear markets. volatile. :o
NT
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U.S. stocks settle higher after volatile session
Bernanke, regulators defend Bear Stearns bailout in second day of testimony
April 3, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday ended a rocky session with modest gains as investors weighed mixed economic data and congressional testimony on the Bear Stearns bailout.
"The market has been holding up pretty well in the face of negative employment data this morning, which is taking away a potential negative surprise on the jobs report tomorrow," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical.
The market slumped Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the U.S. economy might be in recession for the first half of the year. Investors remained nervous Thursday as Bernanke and regulators answered questions on why the Fed intervened to prevent investment firm Bear Stearns from collapsing
NT
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U.S. stocks settle higher after volatile session
Bernanke, regulators defend Bear Stearns bailout in second day of testimony
April 3, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday ended a rocky session with modest gains as investors weighed mixed economic data and congressional testimony on the Bear Stearns bailout.
"The market has been holding up pretty well in the face of negative employment data this morning, which is taking away a potential negative surprise on the jobs report tomorrow," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical.
The market slumped Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the U.S. economy might be in recession for the first half of the year. Investors remained nervous Thursday as Bernanke and regulators answered questions on why the Fed intervened to prevent investment firm Bear Stearns from collapsing
NT
The jobs report is what I'm waiting for. Ten-to-one we get more violent swings tomorrow. ;D
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Apr 03 2008
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Rises, but Still Below 50 Mark
The ISM non-manufacturing index rose unexpectedly in March, albeit modestly, to 49.6 from 49.3 in February. Expectations had been for it to drop to 48.5. However, despite this rise, the diffusion measure remains below the 50 level, which is indicative of activity continuing to fall in services.
NT
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The jobs report is what I'm waiting for. Ten-to-one we get more violent swings tomorrow. ;D
we're at the top of the trading range in a bear market. unless the jobs report completely surprises, or the Fed comes up with a new gimmick by tomm. morning, i'd expect trading range to remain intact.
in this environment.....it's a coin toss ! ;D
NT
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Well, if I see a downtrend shaping up after 10am, I'm jumping on it.
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Jobless claims: Highest since Katrina
Labor Department says number of claims surges to 407,000 - the highest level since September 2005.
April 3, 2008:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New filings for unemployment claims surged in the latest week to the highest level since September 2005, according to a government report released Thursday.
The Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits rose to 407,000 in the week ended March 29, up from a revised 369,000 claims in the previous week.
gbers.....
if not for the PPT, we sit at Dow 10k.
NT
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if not for the PPT, we sit at Dow 10k.
NT
But the working group just sits around and chats they don't affect anything, Ben said so. ::)
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It seems as if the PPT will give its last dying breath to hold up this false dow until bush gets out so they can blame the next president/admin. I dont think theyre fooling too many of us, but we do see blind followers all the time. :-\
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gbers...
U.S. Loses 80,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Increases
April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost jobs for a third consecutive month in March and the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since September 2005, pointing to an economy that may already be in a recession.
Payrolls shrank by 80,000, more than forecast, after a decrease of 76,000 in February that was more than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.1 percent, the highest since September 2005, from 4.8 percent.
NT
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Okay, so the jobs report comes out this morning, and it's worse than expectations. We get the expected drop when the market opens, then around 10:40 it bounces, and now it's trading higher than yeaterday's close?? If this isn't an outside force proping up the market, I think we've lost all common sense. I'm looking for a late day reversal to go short again.
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Well the PPT fuccked up my trading today. >:( The drop from opening got cut short, and what I thought was just a fade turned into a rally. After two frustrating break-even trades on C I finally saw the expected downtrend in GS around 1:30 and rode it down short most of the afternoon. I never jumped on the morning uptrend because I didn't think it would go very far. :-[
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Well the PPT fuccked up my trading today. >:( The drop from opening got cut short, and what I thought was just a fade turned into a rally. After two frustrating break-even trades on C I finally saw the expected downtrend in GS around 1:30 and rode it down short most of the afternoon. I never jumped on the morning uptrend because I didn't think it would go very far. :-[
you experienced market manipulation today. GS (considered the PPT leader) is expected to do most of the heavy lifting to keep our market's from tanking. they served bush/administration well today. so much for free and open markets huh ? ;D
former GS CEO = Paulson
treasury sec. = Paulson
presidents working group on financial markets "kingpin" = Paulson
of course this is all speculation on my part. ;)
BTW......
Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown
Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown Judging by their body language, the US authorities believe the roaring bull market this autumn is just a suckers' rally before the inevitable storm hits.
Hank Paulson, the market-wise Treasury Secretary who built a $700m fortune at Goldman Sachs, is re-activating the 'plunge protection team' (PPT), a shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency, and credit futures in a crash.
Otherwise known as the working group on financial markets, it was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown in October 1987.
NT
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does anyone remember how gas prices plunged $1.00 per gallon just before the midterms, then continued higher shortly thereafter ?
in case you're wondering........that was no coincidence.
What did they do, short the hell out of oil futures contracts, or buy a large quantity and dump them all at once?
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What did they do, short the hell out of oil futures contracts, or buy a large quantity and dump them all at once?
GS unloaded 75% of their positions. other firms followed GS, leading to a quick drop in fuel prices just prior to the election.
following the vote, they began repurchasing them. (allegedly)
as the old saying goes: "there's a sucker born every minute" ;D
NT
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GS unloaded 75% of their positions. other firms followed GS, leading to a quick drop in fuel prices just prior to the election.
following the vote, they began repurchasing them. (allegedly)
as the old saying goes: "there's a sucker born every minute" ;D
NT
Most people haven't figured out yet that the oil price increases since 2003-04 have been primarily due to speculation in the futures market (and secondarily due to the falling dollar), not supply/demand.
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Note to self: goatboy is not an MBA.
read and learn:
http://www.senate.gov/~levin/newsroom/release.cfm?id=257862
::)
Although these high prices are often attributed to the forces of supply and demand, the report demonstrates that supplies have been more than adequate to meet demand. Since late 2004, the amount of stored oil in the United States has been increasing. Oil inventories recently reached 347 million barrels – an eight-year high and the largest U.S. inventory since 1998, when oil was $15 per barrel. Similarly, oil inventories in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries recently reached a 20-year high. As the report explains, the traditional factors of “supply and demand” do not tell the whole story on oil and gas prices.
What is new, according to the Levin-Coleman report, is that over the past few years market speculators have poured tens of billions of dollars into the energy commodity markets. For example, the International Monetary Fund reports that over the past three years approximately $100-$120 billion has been invested in energy markets worldwide. Over this same period about $60 billion has been invested in oil futures on the NYMEX.
Many analysts believe these speculative investments have significantly raised the price of oil futures. While it is not possible to determine the precise dollar increase in the price of oil attributable to market speculation, some analysts have estimated that speculation has added as much as $20-$25 to the price of each barrel of oil
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read and learn:
http://www.senate.gov/~levin/newsroom/release.cfm?id=257862
::)
I am now quite curious as to what it is you do in Houston.
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Bush's War / policies helped precipitate oil speculation and the dollar tanking.
i agree, supply/demand hasn't played a big role in the oil price equation......yet.
NT
Agreed on the "yet".
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you experienced market manipulation today. GS (considered the PPT leader) is expected to do most of the heavy lifting to keep our market's from tanking. they served bush/administration well today. so much for free and open markets huh ? ;D
former GS CEO = Paulson
treasury sec. = Paulson
presidents working group on financial markets "kingpin" = Paulson
of course this is all speculation on my part. ;)
BTW......
Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown
Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown Judging by their body language, the US authorities believe the roaring bull market this autumn is just a suckers' rally before the inevitable storm hits.
Hank Paulson, the market-wise Treasury Secretary who built a $700m fortune at Goldman Sachs, is re-activating the 'plunge protection team' (PPT), a shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency, and credit futures in a crash.
Otherwise known as the working group on financial markets, it was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown in October 1987.
NT
I would love to know just how many manipulations of the market there are. I know I may be going off into a topic that isn't discussed much but I believe there is a ton of illegal, (CIA), money propping up the market as well as the manipulation by the PPT. Who knows how many other things are keeping the market afloat these days by illegal means? Sorry, had to throw in my 2 cent CT theory in there. :)
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Good stuff in here everyday. Its not depressing when you know whats happening......Its depressing when you dont know whats happening.... 8)
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gbers....
today officially begins the start of earnings season. alcola reports after the bell.
expect to see a lot of "earning's better than analysts expected". this ploy is typically used to keep a positive spin on equities when earning disappoint.
recent market action in the face of consistant negative economic news will have the shorts covering on any semi-positive earnings.
NT
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gbers....
today officially begins the start of earnings season. alcola reports after the bell.
expect to see a lot of "earning's better than analysts expected". this ploy is typically used to keep a positive spin on equities when earning disappoint.
recent market action in the face of consistant negative economic news will have the shorts covering on any semi-positive earnings.
NT
Are the "analysts" just strawmen when used in this context of comparison?
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Are the "analysts" just strawmen when used in this context of comparison?
i'd consider that a fair comparison.
NT
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Interesting reading:
This crisis could bring the euro centre-stage
By Wolfgang Münchau
Published: March 23 2008 15:22 | Last updated: March 23 2008 15:22
We know the credit crisis is a clear and present threat to the global economy. But its most important long-run legacy may not be economic, but geopolitical.
I was reminded of that possibility when reading a recent analysis by Professors Menzie Chinn at the University of Wisconsin and Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard*. They ran a simulation showing that the euro would replace the dollar as the world’s largest reserve currency within the next 10 or 15 years. Their analysis is not based on this crisis. But the crisis could easily accelerate the trends they have identified.
Do not dismiss this research as some anti-dollar propaganda. Professors Chinn and Frankel started with the opposite notion – that the euro would not overtake the dollar for a long time. After all, the world does not change reserve currencies very often.
Sterling held pole position until the second world war, but lost it because of the UK’s imperial overreach. The US economy had already overtaken that of the UK in the 1870s. One of the factors that delayed the dollar’s rise was lack of a sophisticated financial sector, which did not develop until the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in 1913. Global reserve currency status is due to many factors such as the size of the economy, the country’s share in international trade and the depth of the financial markets. Inertia is another. If yours is a global reserve currency today, it is likely to be one tomorrow too. But this works only up to a point – a tipping point.
Professors Chinn and Frankel state two underlying reasons for the decline in the international role of the US dollar. The first is persistent current account deficits combined with a long-term decline in the dollar’s exchange rate – and perhaps imperial overreach, too. The second is the emergence of a genuine alternative to the dollar. Neither the yen nor the D-Mark had a realistic chance of replacing the greenback. But the euro is a real alternative. The eurozone economy is almost as large as that of the US and may surpass it as it continues to enlarge. London is the eurozone’s de facto financial centre, even though the UK itself has not adopted the euro. Also, the eurozone bond markets are now almost as deep and liquid as their US counterparts.
The projected speed at which the dollar will lose its predominant position as a global reserve currency obviously depends on your assumptions. The work of Professors Chinn and Frankel shows that this could happen shockingly fast. Some of those trends are accelerating right this minute. The reckless monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has speeded up the dollar’s decline and caused a rise in inflationary expectations. I would expect US inflation to pick up significantly once the present recession ends. Future inflation will weigh heavily on the global role of the US dollar.
An immediate consequence of high inflation is that many developing countries will find it harder to maintain their dollar pegs. They may be reluctant to drop them now but there will come a point when the rise in inflationary pressures becomes unbearable. If and when they drop their pegs, they will almost certainly rebalance their reserve portfolios as well.
Another factor that pushes in the same direction is the weakening of the US financial sector. This has been a crisis of Anglo-Saxon transaction-based capitalism. Not too long ago, it was considered to be vastly superior to the eurozone’s old-fashioned relationship finance. I doubt that in a few years’ time people will continue to assess the relative strengths of the Anglo-Saxon and continental European financial systems in quite the same way. I would also expect the eurozone economy to withstand the economic shocks of the credit crisis in relatively better shape.
Inertia means that the euro will not overtake the dollar any time soon. At present the euro only accounts for a little over a quarter of world reserves, against the dollar’s share of two-thirds. But to keep the euro down forever, you would need to rely on some rather far-fetched conspiracy theories. One such theory says that foreign central banks collude to hang on to dollars to protect the value of their holdings. It does not work that way. The network externalities that have favoured the dollar in the past could just as easily favour the euro in the future.
The potential geopolitical implications of such a projected shift are immense. For a start, the US will lose its exorbitant privilege – the ability to achieve permanently higher returns on foreign assets than the returns paid to foreigners who invest in the US. The dollar will suddenly cease to be “our currency, and your problem”. Influence in international financial institutions will wane. Losing the dollar as the world’s leading international currency not only leads to a loss of political power. It constitutes loss of power.
There is little politicians can do to prevent such a seismic shift. I suspect the US political establishment is not yet aware of what is going to hit it. Then again, the same can be said of European political leaders, who have not given us any hint yet that they are ready to deal with the responsibilities that come with running the world’s leading currency.
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goat, speaking of the dollar......
Iran to OPEC: Stop oil sales in dollars
4/6/2008, Associated Press
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is urging OPEC members to form a joint bank and stop pricing oil trades in U.S. dollars.
According to the Iranian government's Web site, Ahmadinejad told OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri the cartel "should establish a joint bank as well as having joint currency."
Oil is priced in U.S. dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation has concerned producers because it has contributed to rising crude prices and eroded the value of their dollar reserves.
NT
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goat, speaking of the dollar......
Iran to OPEC: Stop oil sales in dollars
4/6/2008, Associated Press
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is urging OPEC members to form a joint bank and stop pricing oil trades in U.S. dollars.
According to the Iranian government's Web site, Ahmadinejad told OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri the cartel "should establish a joint bank as well as having joint currency."
Oil is priced in U.S. dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation has concerned producers because it has contributed to rising crude prices and eroded the value of their dollar reserves.
NT
Ahmadinejad hasn't yet figured out that this is why we went into Iraq? Or does he figure we're overextended and won't go any further. If the Saudis stop backing us on the Dollar in OPEC, we're fuccked.
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Ahmadinejad hasn't yet figured out that this is why we went into Iraq? Or does he figure we're overextended and won't go any further. If the Saudis stop backing us on the Dollar in OPEC, we're fuccked.
True. The saudis will still be all gay with bush. All that hand holding, kissing and penis rubbing will go on.
But the other oil countries could make a big dent in dropping the dollar some more....south america, Iran, etc. In fact china and russia could step up in other ways to get this going.
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Alcoa Says Profit Falls 54% as Energy Costs Rise
April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the world's third-largest aluminum company, said first-quarter profit tumbled 54 percent because of surging energy costs, a weaker U.S. dollar and lower metals prices.
Net income fell to $303 million, or 37 cents a share, from $662 million, or 75 cents, a year earlier, New York-based Alcoa said today in an e-mailed statement. Excluding some items, profit was 44 cents a share. The company was expected to earn 50 cents, the average estimate of 14 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Sales fell 6.7 percent to $7.38 billion.
gbers*....today earning's season opened w/ AA. their profit numbers were worse than expected (see above) AA is typically big stock market mover, so just prior to their numbers being released, GS UPGRADES AA and the aluminum sector. (see below) as i've stated on prior occasions, GS is used as a conduit for issuing upgrades and buying equities to hold up markets. ( this is a clear example )
btw, despite this clear intervention by the PPT, 12,700 is still my trading range top and should remain intact.
April 7 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its 2008 and 2009 aluminum price forecasts, citing supply constraints in several countries due to power shortages.
Goldman raised its price forecasts to $1.31 per pound from $1.12 for 2008 and to $1.33 per pound from $1.21 for 2009.
It also raised its price targets on Alcoa Inc to $42 from $37
NT
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Ahmadinejad hasn't yet figured out that this is why we went into Iraq? Or does he figure we're overextended and won't go any further. If the Saudis stop backing us on the Dollar in OPEC, we're fuccked.
If they pull that shit, pres mcCain will promptly bomb the shit out of them.
And all americans should back it 100%.
No fuccking around - this is our way of life. IMO, oil/dollar terrorism is the worst kind, because unlike a single event, it crushes the economy of an entire country for a long time. F Iran. Seriously.
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just prior to their numbers being released, GS UPGRADES AA and the aluminum sector. (see below) as i've stated on prior occasions, GS is used as a conduit for issuing upgrades and buying equities to hold up markets. ( this is a clear example )
Who pays attention to analyst ratings anyway? If most analysts are calling a stock a "buy", that's a good time to sell.
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If they pull that shit, pres mcCain will promptly bomb the shit out of them.
And all americans should back it 100%.
No fuccking around - this is our way of life. IMO, oil/dollar terrorism is the worst kind, because unlike a single event, it crushes the economy of an entire country for a long time. F Iran. Seriously.
The population characteristics of Iran is much more different than Iraq. If America ever decided to do anything in Iran militarily, it would be a very poor move.
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Who pays attention to analyst ratings anyway? If most analysts are calling a stock a "buy", that's a good time to sell.
i agree. but this type of maneuver is designed to influence psychology and or momentum.
NT
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If they pull that shit, pres mcCain will promptly bomb the shit out of them.
And all americans should back it 100%.
No fuccking around - this is our way of life. IMO, oil/dollar terrorism is the worst kind, because unlike a single event, it crushes the economy of an entire country for a long time. F Iran. Seriously.
Mccain couldnt fight his way out of a phone booth. If he gets elected, beware cuz whoever his vice is...thats the new prez.. Also I think Iran will come on with a 100 times the force of Iraq. Theyve had a huge amount of time to build hatred for us, and russia would back them in the long run. Shit man, our troops would be fvcking overwhelmed with the swarm of death....Weve already proved we have to give the shiites money, and put them on the payroll to get a week of peace. Then they turn on us till the next check roll around.. :-\
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Mccain couldnt fight his way out of a phone booth. If he gets elected, beware cuz whoever his vice is...thats the new prez.. Also I think Iran will come on with a 100 times the force of Iraq. Theyve had a huge amount of time to build hatred for us, and russia would back them in the long run. Shit man, our troops would be fvcking overwhelmed with the swarm of death....Weve already proved we have give the shiites money and put them on the payroll to get a week of peace. Then they turn on till the next checks roll around.. :-\
we don't have to win. we just have to discourage others from dropping the dollar. You drop the dollar, we're gonna drop bombs. period. i dont wanna live in poverty here.
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we don't have to win. we just have to discourage others from dropping the dollar. You drop the dollar, we're gonna drop bombs. period. i dont wanna live in poverty here.
Remember ive been saying that since you said we'd have security in oil.....The plan is to organize mexico and canada with us...this means we gonna be poor, poor, poor. in awhile. i know youve already been thru the CT scares, but you may have pulled back a little to far, friend.
Its coming and there aint much anyones gonna do about it. Say good bye to the dollar... :-\
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we don't have to win. we just have to discourage others from dropping the dollar. You drop the dollar, we're gonna drop bombs. period. i dont wanna live in poverty here.
yea buddy (ronnie coleman voice)
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yes. the market is now in a trading range of 11,700 - 12,700. .
without positive earnings.....we probably sit in this range for some time.
NT
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Its coming and there aint much anyones gonna do about it. Say good bye to the dollar...
The scary part is how quickly the dollar can fall. We are so dependent on China's money and the Mid-East for oil, that our way of life could change drastically in a matter of months. If we don't change this dependence, we're screwed.
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Grim economic outlook trumps price worries at March FOMC
April 8, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Behind closed doors last month, top Federal Reserve officials confronted new projections of a sharp and severe slowdown, leading them to brush aside worries about rising prices and cut rates aggressively, according to minutes of the meeting released Tuesday. The majority of FOMC members said the substantial easing in March was justified given the deteriorating economic outlook, the minutes said. No one seemed in any way comfortable with recent rising prices.
NT
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Grim economic outlook trumps price worries at March FOMC
April 8, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Behind closed doors last month, top Federal Reserve officials confronted new projections of a sharp and severe slowdown, leading them to brush aside worries about rising prices and cut rates aggressively, according to minutes of the meeting released Tuesday. The majority of FOMC members said the substantial easing in March was justified given the deteriorating economic outlook, the minutes said. No one seemed in any way comfortable with recent rising prices.
NT
Look at Bernanke's face at the end of this video? Does he sound sincere to you?
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SEATTLE (AP) -- Washington Mutual Inc. secured $7 billion in new capital Tuesday, an injection that is aimed at reviving the company despite ballooning loan losses but which may also push it to rethink its strategy, slim down and revamp the management.
The country's largest savings and loan has been badly hurt by rising delinquencies and defaults on mortgages, and efforts last year to rehabilitate its finances fell short despite assurances from management that slashing its dividend, raising nearly $3 billion in a stock sale and leaving the subprime mortgage business would be sufficient.
Washington Mutual said it would get the new capital from an investment group led by private equity group TPG, but will cut its dividend again and post both a wider loss and set aside more in loan loss provisions for the first quarter than had been expected. TPG founding partner David Bonderman, a former WaMu director, will also rejoin the board.
Separately, the thrift said it will get out of the wholesale lending business, close all remaining standalone home loan centers and lay off about 3,000 workers
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Why do you keep acting like a kid? If you have even one ounce of integrity you'll admit I was right on some counts and may be in the future.
What are your predictions?
Do you read the thread? His predictions (Most of which are facts,by now) are still in here. He's just watching the market to see if the rises are from the PPT or true markets. I think your smart enough to know which one is propping up the DOW, right?
All signs point to a breakdown in the near future as more people lose their homes, cars and jobs.......
Some guys are crazy enough to play with this market (Goatboy and others) Im out tho till its safer.
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Why do you keep acting like a kid? If you have even one ounce of integrity you'll admit I was right on some counts and may be in the future.
What are your predictions?
Please get the fuck off this thread and go back to G&O
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Goatboy talks a big game.... not so sure about him any more after reading his posts in this and other threads.
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Goatboy talks a big game.... not so sure about him any more after reading his posts in this and other threads.
Yeah. In the virtual world, you have to take everything said with a grain of salt.
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oil will be down to 70 by christmas time.
Oil reaches $112 for the first time
April 9, 2008:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices surged to record levels Wednesday, topping $112 a barrel, after a government report showed an unexpected decline in crude supplies.
NT
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our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
U.S. falling into recession, IMF predicts; world to feel pain
WASHINGTON (AP) — The world economy will slow sharply this year, according to an International Monetary Fund forecast, with the United States sliding into a recession amid housing, credit and financial slumps.The IMF, in a World Economic Outlook released Wednesday, slashed growth projections for the United States — the epicenter of the woes — and the global economy as a whole.
NT
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Again, Neurotoxin, let's see some predictions. Let's be more constructive, I'm sure you're a smart man, you just need to act less like a 14yo...
All I see is copy paste of news we've already read and distortion of what I said, not very credible man.
Fvck your an idiot.
He pastes some of these articles because it's a reflection of what he thinks will happen. He shares the same thoughts as the authors. There are many other people predicting/claiming quite the opposite and he could have cut and pasted those points of view but he hasn't. Plus, he's made predictions on here that are his own, do you read?
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70% of our nations GDP is consumer consumption. since our nation no longer manufactures, we are dependent on a STRONG consumer. a weak dollar INCREASES inflation which lessens Americans buying power.
record u.s deficits, a weak dollar, negative consumer savings, high inflation, record gas/oil prices (in none peak season) coupled with Americans no longer able to use their homes as a.t.m. machines spells disaster for a service economy such as ours.
the perfect storm is brewing........
4/10/08
NEW YORK (CNN) -- Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich warned Americans on Wednesday not to be overly optimistic that the U.S. economy might rebound by the end of summer.
"More realistically, we are going to go into 2009 with a serious recession," Reich, now a professor at the University of California at Berkeley.
"I think there's no more than 20 percent chance of a depression," Reich said.
Although Reich stressed that a depression is unlikely, he said that what's happening with the economy today is close to a perfect storm.
"You've got food and energy prices, fuel prices going way way up," he said. "You've got wages stuck. You've got people who are losing their jobs. You've got housing prices going down. I mean, it's pretty bad."
NT
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4/10/08
NEW YORK (CNN) -- Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich warned Americans on Wednesday not to be overly optimistic that the U.S. economy might rebound by the end of summer.
"More realistically, we are going to go into 2009 with a serious recession," Reich, now a professor at the University of California at Berkeley.
"I think there's no more than 20 percent chance of a depression," Reich said.
Although Reich stressed that a depression is unlikely, he said that what's happening with the economy today is close to a perfect storm.
"You've got food and energy prices, fuel prices going way way up," he said. "You've got wages stuck. You've got people who are losing their jobs. You've got housing prices going down. I mean, it's pretty bad."
NT
When you compare the situation of today to that of the 30's numbers wise, this is just the beginning, but the fact that people are even mentioning the word "depression" should be enough to give even the most optimistic person a jolt.
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When you compare the situation of today to that of the 30's numbers wise, this is just the beginning, but the fact that people are even mentioning the word "depression" should be enough to give even the most optimistic person a jolt.
i have never witnessed the convergence of so many negative factors in the US economy at the same time. the perfect storm is upon us........
NT
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gbers.....
Consumer Confidence Falls to New Low
2008-04-11
WASHINGTON (AP) - Americans' confidence in the economy fell to a new low, dragged down by worries about mounting job losses, record-high home foreclosures and zooming energy prices.
According to the RBC Cash Index, confidence dropped to a mark of 29.5 in April, down from 33.1 in March. The new reading was the worst since the index began in 2002. It marked the fourth month in a row where confidence has fallen to an all-time low.
"Consumers are very pessimistic," said Mark Vitner, economist at Wachovia . "There are not a lot of happy campers out there."
Over the past year, consumer confidence has deteriorated significantly. Worsening problems in housing, harder-to-get credit, financial turmoil on Wall Street and lofty energy prices have put people in a much more gloomy mind-set. Last April, confidence stood at 85.4.
All the economy's problems are taking a toll on President Bush's approval ratings, too. The public's approval rating on his economic stewardship fell to a low of 27 percent, according to a separate Associated Press-Ipsos poll. Bush's overall job-approval rating dipped to 28 percent, also an all-time low, the poll said.
keep in mind gbers.....the consumer is 70% of our nations GDP.
NT
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Including calls for more oversight of financial firms and greater financial transparency, G7 members have committed themselves to its implementation.
"We remain positive about the long-term resilience of our economies, but near-term global economic prospects have weakened," said a statement issued by the G7 after the meeting.
The plan was drawn up for the G7 by the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) think-tank.
The FSF is comprised of a number of central bank and treasury officials from around the world.
"We have worked, and will continue to work, closely to address global challenges and take concrete actions," said US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.
Before the G7 meeting, UK Chancellor Alistair Darling described the credit squeeze as the "biggest economic shock" the world has seen since the 1930s Great Depression.
The credit crisis stemmed from a slowdown in the US housing market and has had a knock-on effect worldwide and dented growth.
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Another one behaving like a 14yo... this place is a riot...
Hes just answering your question......Youre alzheimers is kicking in.
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gbers.....
not much to add as of recently. i stated in earlier posts that @ Dow 12,700 the market would fail. we hit 12,720 and failed...........
don't buy into "the bottom is in" hype.......IMO it's not.
my opinion has not wavered since Nov. i still expect this market to head lower.
please be careful.
NT
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Wholesale inflation surges 1.1% in March
4/15/08
WASHINGTON — Inflation at the wholesale level soared in March at nearly triple the rate expected as the costs of energy and food both climbed rapidly.
The Labor Department reported Tuesday that wholesale prices rose 1.1% last month. That was the second biggest increase in the past 33 years. Analysts had been expecting a much more moderate 0.4% rise in wholesale prices.
NT
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gbers...... news article's give you the psychological sentiment of the market. in uptrend markets the reverse applies.
i attempt to keep the articles brief but also get the message across. 80% of the market is psychology.
NT
Foreclosures jump 57 percent in last 12 months
Apr 15, 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home foreclosure filings surged 57 percent in the 12 month-period ended in March and bank repossessions soared 129 percent from a year ago, as homeowners struggled to make mortgage payments, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Tuesday.
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April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell to a record low against the euro as European inflation accelerated last month, reducing chances the European Central Bank will follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates.
The currency had its biggest decline versus the euro in three weeks, weakening to $1.5969 as U.S. housing starts dropped more than twice as much as forecast to a 17-year low.
NT
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Consumer Price Index shows modest gains in inflation on higher energy prices.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Consumers, hit by rising energy prices, paid slightly more for goods and services in March.
The Consumer Price Index, the government's key inflation measure, rose 0.3%, compared to February, when prices were unchanged. The gain matched the forecasts of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The price of energy jumped 1.9% percent in the month.
The more-closely watched core CPI reading, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in March, after being unchanged in February.
NT
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U.S. gasoline prices hit $3.40 a gallon for regular.
April 16, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. retail gasoline prices for unleaded regular rose by a penny to $3.40 a gallon. In Hawaii, prices rose to $4.08 a gallon for regular.
NT
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U.S. gasoline prices hit $3.40 a gallon for regular.
April 16, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. retail gasoline prices for unleaded regular rose by a penny to $3.40 a gallon. In Hawaii, prices rose to $4.08 a gallon for regular.
NT
I feel like there's no end in sight.
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TORONTO — The Canadian dollar rose 1.73 cents (U.S.) to close at 99.86 cents Wednesday as the U.S. dollar's global weakness intensified and the loonie benefited from rising commodity prices.
The loonie's latest gain came after a Statistics Canada report suggested Canadian manufacturers continue to show surprising resilience in the face of the U.S. economic slump and Canadian potash producers reaped a rich new contract with China. Moreover, oil prices hit record highs again.
The euro, meanwhile, hit another record against the greenback after the European Union reported inflation in the euro zone heated up to 3.6 per cent in March.
The 15-country currency traded at $1.5968, topping the previous record of $1.5912 set last Thursday.
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as long as our Gov. continues to borrow money from China like drunken sailors, the greenback will deflate and inflation will rise, along with food, fuel etc.
economics 101.
NT
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right now what you're seeing is analyst's have lowered companies earnings "expectations" to the point where it's easy to "beat the street by a penny". (although their profits may be down 50% from last year) this forces short position players to cover.....moving the market higher.
during earnings season, there's a lot of "game playing" that occurs to make companies profits look better. ( economic news is typically ignored) this is usually where the general public becomes euphoric again......only to face reality when earning's season ends.
be very careful..........
NT
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April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. posted its third-straight quarterly loss and will cut about 4,000 jobs after at least $6.5 billion of writedowns and a 40 percent drop in investment-banking fees.
NT
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April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. posted its third-straight quarterly loss and will cut about 4,000 jobs after at least $6.5 billion of writedowns and a 40 percent drop in investment-banking fees.
NT
NT, where are you copying and pasting these quotes from? Will you please post the link with the quotes in the future? I'd like to email this stuff to some people I know. Thank you!
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Philadelphia Fed Index Declines More Than Forecast
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted more than forecast in April, as measures of new orders and shipments reflected weakening demand.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to minus 24.9, the lowest since 2001, from minus 17.4 in March, the bank said today. Readings less than zero signal contraction.
NT
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NT, where are you copying and pasting these quotes from? Will you please post the link with the quotes in the future? I'd like to email this stuff to some people I know. Thank you!
my intention is to consolidate the news posts for gbers. thus no links. go to bloomberg.com and search for any pertinent information you'd like to send to your friends.
NT
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my intention is to consolidate the news posts for gbers. thus no links. go to bloomberg.com and search for any pertinent information you'd like to send to your friends.
NT
What? What if I want to read the whole article and not just the one quote? How hard is it for you to copy and paste the link right after you have copied and pasted the quote while you still have the source web page open? Anyway, thanks!
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my intention is to consolidate the news posts for gbers. thus no links. go to bloomberg.com and search for any pertinent information you'd like to send to your friends.
NT
I like your posts but you clearly seem to have an ego problem mr wallstreet playah. Lets hope you recover when the game start
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an ego problem? i'm talking about and posting information concerning the stock market. ???
NT
The guy asked you for some links, maybe he dont know how to use google, whats your jewish problem? You cant share?
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What? What if I want to read the whole article and not just the one quote? How hard is it for you to copy and paste the link right after you have copied and pasted the quote while you still have the source web page open? Anyway, thanks!
Most of us here wouldnt be able to read full reports for time reasons. Its always interesting to see how a days events are seen by NT Tho. as hes proven to read the markets pretty well.......good thread to check daily or often.
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He already said to check Bloomberg. There is tons of info out there, it's not that hard to find, I just like the fact that Neuro shortens the stuff and makes it faster to get to the meat of the story.
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The guy asked you for some links, maybe he dont know how to use google, whats your jewish problem? You cant share?
Thanks, benz! I can google, but I thought NT could save me the time since he is already there at the source web page and can easily just copy the link and paste here, but I guess that's too much trouble.
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Thanks, benz! I can google, but I thought NT could save me the time since he is already there at the source web page and can easily just copy the link and paste here, but I guess that's too much trouble.
I know what you mean, but it seems like NT is just too good for us ::)
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I have been in the markets for 18 years.
Just keep your nose to the grindstone and don't pay much attention.
Historically, both the stock market and real estate have given 11% returns to investors...
...to those who are patient.
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Just keep your nose to the grindstone and don't pay much attention.
Historically, both the stock market and real estate have given 11% returns to investors......to those who are patient.
moose......
since 2000 the return on your investment in the Nasdaq is: - 55 percent.
since 2000 the return on your investment in the Dow/S&P is: +2 percent.
NT
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April 18, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Citigroup delivered another devastating quarterly loss Friday, this time losing more than $5 billion due to troubling results in its fixed-income business and higher consumer credit costs.
The New York-based company also recorded $12.1 billion in writedowns, nearly half of which came from subprime-related direct exposures.
Citigroup said its net loss totaled $5.1 billion, or $1.02 per share, during the first quarter, wider than analysts had anticipated. That compares with a $5.01 billion profit just a year earlier.
Last quarter, the company reported a eye-popping $9.83 billion loss - the worst quarterly loss ever recorded in the 196-year-history of the firm and its predecessors.
NT
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CitiFukced.
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CitiFukced.
240, right now all WS is concerned with is "analysts expections". although Citi lost billions, if it's less than analysts expected......we will go higher.
remember, during earnings season the market is always skewed to the upside.
NT
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I have been in the markets for 18 years.
Just keep your nose to the grindstone and don't pay much attention.
Historically, both the stock market and real estate have given 11% returns to investors...
...to those who are patient.
This is some of the dumbest advice being thrown out there. Your "average" return has no relevance whatsoever to the typical stock investor... NONE
If you bought the Dow Jones in 1966, you would have to wait nearly 30 years just to get your money back.
What NT is trying to do is help the "suckers" that buy into the garbage handed down from wall street advising the little guy to stay in the market, and buy more when it is down.
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This is some of the dumbest advice being thrown out there. Your "average" return has no relevance whatsoever to the typical stock investor... NONE
If you bought the Dow Jones in 1966, you would have to wait nearly 30 years just to get your money back.
What NT is trying to do is help the "suckers" that buy into the garbage handed down from wall street advising the little guy to stay in the market, and buy more when it is down.
Exactly. As the commercial goes. "This ain't your fathers Buick, anymore" Yesterday has nothing to do with today. We used to have safety nets....now all we have is the PPT to run false numbers till bush gets out.
Citi bails out and the DOW hits 12,900!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WTH.
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This is from Warren Buffett's 2007 Investor Update
During the 20th Century, the Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497. This gain, though it appears huge, shrinks to 5.3% when compounded annually. An investor who owned the Dow throughout the century would also have received generous dividends for much of the period, but only about 2% or so in the final years. It was a wonderful century.
Think now about this century. For investors to merely match that 5.3% market-value gain, the Dow – recently below 13,000 – would need to close at about 2,000,000 on December 31, 2099.
We are now eight years into this century, and we have racked up less than 2,000 of the 1,988,000 Dow points the market needed to travel in this hundred years to equal the 5.3% of the last. It’s amusing that commentators regularly hyperventilate at the prospect of the Dow crossing an even number of thousands, such as 14,000 or 15,000. If they keep reacting that way, a 5.3% annual gain for the century will mean they experience at least 1,986 seizures during the next 92 years. While anything is possible, does anyone really believe this is the most likely outcome?
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Got a little trade "lucky" last week for a change... can't allways be wrong I guess. The important part is acting on it.
So it's been what, several months where you've been trying to make a profit so you could come back here to gloat about it? Glad it finally happened...
Even a busted Clock is right twice a day - congratulations!
Go back to G&O, your level of stupidity is not tolerated here
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Crude Oil Rises to All-Time High Above $119 on Record Euro
April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record $119.90 a barrel in New York as the dollar dropped to an all-time low against the euro, prompting investors to purchase commodities as an inflation hedge.
Oil gained as the dollar touched $1.60 per euro for the first time after European Central Bank policy makers signaled they may raise interest rates because of inflation. Crude's 24 percent surge this year pulled gasoline and diesel to records, weighing on an economy already reeling from a credit crisis.
NT
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Home sales dip in March
Realtors' group says sales by homeowners declined 2%, while home prices tumbled another 7.7%.
4/22/08
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sales of existing homes fell in March, after registering a modest increase the month before, according to a report by an industry group released Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales by homeowners fell 2% in March to an annual pace of 4.93 million, down from the February reading of 5.03 million. The number was down 19.3% from 6.11 million a year earlier.
"Though mortgage rates are at historically low levels, some borrowers are facing restrictive lending practices in declining markets," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
NT
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guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.
i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
NT
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New-home sales sink 8.5% to 17-year low
Despite huge price declines, inventory on market rises to 27-year high
April 24, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders have slashed their prices by a record amount, but sales still plunged by 8.5% to a 17-year low in March, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was much weaker than the 577,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The report gives little hope that the housing market is near a bottom. February's sales pace was revised lower to 575,000 from 590,000.
NT
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New-home sales sink 8.5% to 17-year low
Despite huge price declines, inventory on market rises to 27-year high
April 24, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders have slashed their prices by a record amount, but sales still plunged by 8.5% to a 17-year low in March, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was much weaker than the 577,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The report gives little hope that the housing market is near a bottom. February's sales pace was revised lower to 575,000 from 590,000.
NT
Right on. We're going to see much greater price corrections to the downsides, than what we've seen so far.
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Consumer sentiment index at a 26-year low
4/25/08 NEW YORK (Reuters) — Consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in April, hitting its weakest level in 26 years, on heightened worries over inflation and the sagging housing market, a survey showed Friday.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final index of confidence for April fell deeper into recession territory, to 62.6 from 69.5 in March and below economists' median expectation of 63.2 in a Reuters poll.
The April result is the lowest since March 1982's 62.0, when the "stagflation" period of low growth and high inflation was an issue for Americans.
"More consumers reported that their personal financial situation had worsened than any time since 1982 due to high fuel and food prices as well as shrinking income gains and widespread reports of declines in home values," the survey said.
"Never before in the long history of the surveys have so many consumers reported hearing news of unfavorable economic development as in the April survey."
NT
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guys.......notice the disconnect between what's happening in the real economic world and the stock market ?
without historic Plunger Team manipulation, this market would be toast.
BTW, recently our Government has been selling their Gold to temporarily prop up the dollar so more interest rates cuts could be implemented by Big Ben. (allegedly) ;)
NT
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guys.......notice the disconnect between what's happening in the real economic world and the stock market ?
without historic Plunger Team manipulation, this market would be toast.
BTW, recently our Government has been selling their Gold to temporarily prop up the dollar so more interest rates cuts could be implemented by Big Ben. (allegedly) ;)
NT
Would that explain the decline in gold prices?
I was watching Smart Money on CNBC last night and they were jerking each other off about the one day decline in oil and supposed strengthening of the dollar vs the Euro and how this is news that the economy is recovering.
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BTW, recently our Government has been selling their Gold the gold they stole in 1933 for 20.67 per ounce then revaluing it to 35 per ounce in essence STEALING 69% of private wealth from American Citizens to temporarily prop up the dollar so more interest rates cuts could be implemented by Big Ben. (allegedly) ;)
NT
Fixed
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Wall Street Grain Hoarding Brings Farmers, Consumers Near Ruin
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- As farmers confront mounting costs and riots erupt from Haiti to Egypt over food, Garry Niemeyer is paying the price for Wall Street's speculation in grain markets.
Commodity-index funds control a record 4.51 billion bushels of corn, wheat and soybeans through Chicago Board of Trade futures, equal to half the amount held in U.S. silos on March 1. The holdings jumped 29 percent in the past year as investors bought grain contracts seeking better returns than stocks or bonds.
NT
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Vacant homes hit new record high in first quarter
Monday April 28, 10:23 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
Percentage of US vacant homes hits new record high in first quarter as housing pain persists
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Census Bureau says the percentage of vacant homes in the U.S. has hit a record high in the first quarter of this year.
The report, released Monday, shows that 2.9 percent of U.S. homes -- excluding rental properties -- were vacant, compared with 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.
The West had the biggest gain in vacancy rates among homeowner, rising to 7 percent in the January-March period from 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Vacancy rates fell in the Midwest and South, but rose in the Northeast.
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gbers, below is a great article pertaining to the PPT. i consider this piece to be highly accurate and worth reading.
The Plunge Protection Team
The Washington Independent
25 April 2008
Some people foolishly think that Washington's recent high-profile effort to steer, subsidize and protect the American financial sector is the beginning of something new - a revolutionary development.
It isn't. Consider that the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - nicknamed "the Plunge Protection Team" by The Washington Post in 1997 quietly observed its 20th birthday on Mar. 18.
"Quietly," in fact, is an understatement. "Semi-secretly" would be more like it. The Working Group, or PPT, is much-pondered but reclusive group that has declined to submit to the federal Freedom of Information Act or to testify in detail before Congress about its activities. This is true even though its current chief, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke is another prominent member - made no secret of revving up its operations after he took took over at Treasury in 2006.
The curious reader will wonder: Just what does the PPT do?
Right now, Congress ought to able to pursue this basic question: Is the PPT a kind of committee for the extra-legal coordination, manipulation and subsidization of financial institutions and markets? Has it been stepping in when free-market forces have become too perilous to profits and asset values - in financial crisis years like 1998, 2001 and 2007. Has Washington decided to protect the financial sector more than any other element of the U.S. economy?
Over the last decade or so, the Treasury Dept. and the Fed have both developed something of a scofflaw attitude toward strict interpretation of federal statutes and regulations. For example, both winked in the late 1990s, as federal regulators allowed Citibank to merge with Travelers Insurance, despite contrary law still on the books. Both winked in more recent years, as major banks set up huge multi-billion-dollar structured investment vehicles, or SIVs, to do on an off-the-books basis what they were not allowed under banking law. Now we have the federally funded J.P Morgan Chase takeover of Bear Stearns. The PPT may well have had a quiet role in some of these actions.
For the bigger picture, look back to the stock market crash of 1987 - the sickening Oct. 19 fall when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average lost 508 points or 23.6 percent of its value in a single trading day. Alan Greenspan had just taken over as the Federal Reserve Bank chairman, and some believe that the Fed intervened to support the market the next day - by either buying Standard & Poors futures or telling several collaborative broker-dealers to do so.
Tim Metz, in "Black Monday," contends that "some leaders and market makers at the New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange collaborated to save the stock market by rigging stock information and prices." Tony Dye, a British fund manager, made a similar charge of intervention by U.S. authorities. London Sunday Telegraph, Mar. 22, 1998).]] Edward Chancellor, in his 1999 book, "Devil Take the Hindmost," noted that if these interventions occurred, they raised a major issue of "moral hazard."
The likelihood they did occur is increased by the fact that a year after the PPT group's launch, a retiring Fed board member, Robert Heller, wrote a much-discussed article in The Wall Street Journal that in the case of an another emergency like 1987, there might be a better alternative than the Fed's usual remedy - interest rate reduction. "Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, " Heller wrote, "the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole." No public mention was ever made of the Fed or the Working Group embracing the Heller scheme, but that may have happened privately.
Such accusations are a long way from being conclusive. But they do help explain the milieu in which the Working Group, or PPT, was set up by presidential proclamation - Congress had no role - in March 1988. The proclamation authorized the Working Group to "enhance the integrity, efficiency, orderliness and competitiveness of financial markets" - language that may have been intended to provide a broad and loose authorization for intervention in the 1987 mode, should it be required again.
Media discussion of the Working Group, negligible in 1988, rekindled after the tribulations over the Asian and Russian debt and currency crises of 1997 and 1998. Washington's ambitions to manipulate seem to have been on the upswing. In a January 1997 speech in Belgium, Greenspan indicated that the Fed could pursue "direct intervention in market events" - a bold new legal interpretation.
A month later, The Washington Post ran a big article, revealing details never repeated by any other major publication. The article describes how the Working Group had set up a financial "war room;" assembled a global as well as national list of key emergency contacts, and carried out simulated emergency drills.
In the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, media attention to possible government market intervention and manipulation refocused again - though less in the United States than in foreign English-speaking media. The London Observer reported, later that September, the Working Group-cum-PTT was "ready to coordinate intervention by the Federal Reserve on an unprecedented scale. The Fed, supported by the banks, will buy equities from mutual funds and other institutional sellers if there is evidence of panic selling in the wake of last week's carnage."
The group was cited again a half-year later. The authoritative Financial Times quoted a Fed official, who declined to be identified, but acknowledged that policy-makers had considered "buying U.S. equities" - not just futures. The Fed, said the official, could "theoretically buy anything to pump money into the system," including "state and local debt, real estate and gold mines, any asset." That sounds much like the same broad conception of empowerment Greenspan had injudiciously taken note of in 1997.
Two months later, the Australian Financial Review weighed in, wondering whether a 234-point intra-day surge on the New York Stock Exchange could be attributed to the PPT: "There is a belief that this team represents a powerful and secretive hand that is ready to act any time the Dow looks ready to tank big time."
After 2001-02, there was little mention of the PPT group for several years. But come 2006, when Paulson decided to renew the Working Group as a major player, the British financial pages, if not the American, renewed their interest. The London Telegraph described the PPT as a "shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency and credit futures in a crash." It added that the former Clinton aide, George Stephanopoulos, had earlier described the group as having "an informal agreement among the major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem."
Not all U.S. financial journalists have been baaing sheep, ready to ignore the issue. John Crudele of The New York Post has pursued it in several columns, and others have acknowledged hearing about the buy orders from friends in the S&P trading pits. Another columnist, James Pethokoukis of U.S. News & World Report, described at length how in the final two trading hours on Aug, 16, 2007, the Plunge Protection Team might have encouraged one or two major institutions to buy stock index futures, because a 300-point Dow decline was briskly wiped away. But then he felt obliged to close with a semi-disavowal: "there's never been any official confirmation of this," and that insiders both in Washington and Wall Street "totally dismiss" these reports.
With the recent market panics and surges, the Working Group - if not its deepest secrets - might have again appeared on the front pages. But this did not happen.
However, in March 2008, the Senate Finance Committee's top Democrat, Max Baucus (D-Mont.), and top Republican, Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), were consumed by interest in whether Paulson pressured Bernanke into having the Federal Reserve broker the controversial deal in which J. P. Morgan Chase got $30 billion to help take over Bear Stearns.
Baucus and Grassley asked for all kinds of details. However, they seem not to have asked for information on how closely Paulson and Bernanke had been collaborating since 2006 in their mutual roles on the Plunge Protection Team. and how they interpreted their powers under the 1988 presidential proclamation. This is unfortunate.
Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, a well-respected senior statesman, stated his concern bluntly. "To meet the challenge," Volcker said, "the Federal Reserve judged it necessary to take actions that extend to the very edge of its lawful and implied powers, transcending certain long-embedded central banking principles and practices."
Volcker is regarded as one of the last honest men in U.S. finance. But since 1987, the lawful and implied powers of the Federal Reserve have probably been extended further than the former Fed chairman would like - and, conceivably, further than he knows.
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Warren Buffett: "I Think We're In A Recession"
April 28, 2008
On CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning Warren Buffett told Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Carl Quintanilla and Steve Liesman that he thought the country was in a recession, even if economists weren't quite ready to label it as such:
BUFFETT: "YEAH, I THINK WE'RE IN A RECESSION. IT IS DEFINED IN A CERTAIN WAY BY THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. BUT I THINK IT'S DEFINED BY THE MAN IN THE STREET DIFFERENTLY THAN WHETHER THERE HAVE BEEN TWO QUARTERS OF REPORTED GDP GROWTH. INCIDENTALLY, WHEN GROWTH IS BELOW 1% A YEAR, IT'S REALLY FALLING ON A PER CAPITA BASIS BECAUSE OUR POPULATION INCREASES ABOUT 1%. EVEN THOUGH THE NATIONAL BUREAU USES AN ABSOLUTE FIGURE, IF IT'S UP .1, THEY DON'T COUNT THAT AS A RECESSIONARY QUARTER. BUT THE PER CAPITA HAS GONE DOWN IN A QUARTER WHEN THE GAIN IS A HALF A PERCENT OR SOMETHING OF THE SORT. WE ARE IN A RECESSION UNLESS YOU WANT TO STICK STRICTLY TO THE TECHNICAL DEFINITION WHICH I DON'T THINK HAS MUCH MEANING TO THE FELLOW WHO'S LOST HIS JOB OR WHO'S FACING A MONEY MARKET FUND THAT ISN'T PAYING HIM OUT OR WHATEVER IT MAY BE."
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The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is widely expected to trim interest rates to 2% from 2.25% this week to lift the troubled US economy.
Policy makers will begin their two-day meeting later amid signs that economic growth has stagnated, or even shrunk.
It is thought that this could be the last cut for a while, after bold action from the Fed and White House has led to hopes that the worst could be over.
Rising inflation risks could also lead to a rate cut pause, analysts say.
"We expect this to be the last cut, but the Fed will be flexible in responding to economic conditions," said Peter Berezin, global economist at Goldman Sachs.
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guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.
i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
NT
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The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, is widely expected to trim interest rates to 2% from 2.25% this week to lift the troubled US economy.
Policy makers will begin their two-day meeting later amid signs that economic growth has stagnated, or even shrunk.
It is thought that this could be the last cut for a while, after bold action from the Fed and White House has led to hopes that the worst could be over.
Rising inflation risks could also lead to a rate cut pause, analysts say.
"We expect this to be the last cut, but the Fed will be flexible in responding to economic conditions," said Peter Berezin, global economist at Goldman Sachs.
Its so damn funny that people believe this. By lowering rates they will feed the coming dollar crash and depression. They can lower rates to zero% and by tightening credit standards they are nullifying it. The housing bubble was meant to be a last hurrah for gullible americans, they took all the money they could and ruined their credit.................i t was all planned. Especially these empty attempts to appear noble by the administration by trying to lower rates.......and gauranteeing that no one gets qualified to use them.
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Not only are existing subprime borrowers hung out to dry, but with the new wave of foreclosures, you have a whole new crop of people that are now subprime.
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Its so damn funny that people believe this. By lowering rates they will feed the coming dollar crash and depression. They can lower rates to zero% and by tightening credit standards they are nullifying it. The housing bubble was meant to be a last hurrah for gullible americans, they took all the money they could and ruined their credit.................i t was all planned. Especially these empty attempts to appear noble by the administration by trying to lower rates.......and gauranteeing that no one gets qualified to use them.
you're exactly right WH. lowering rates continues to devalue our greenback and fan the inflation fire, resulting in higher prices for gas, food and all services. furthermore, lowering rates during a credit crunch combined with raging inflation borders on the absurd. ???
it's more pandering by our Fed to appease W.S.
NT
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Neuro, I want to get your opinion. Please, thank you... I've been studying and playing for the last few months with that real time fake stock market investopedia. So far on my first investment I'm making an Annual Return bouncing between 20 to 32%. I tried to only play with the amount of fake money that I would be able to invest real money per month. Showing a profit of 7000.00 since I started or whenever it was I posted about this before? Anyway, in your opinion, at what point should I dump the play and apply real time. I feel like trying now! But I'm a bit uneasy with the immediate success of playing it fake, like I feel I should have fucked up first as if that were the point of playing it fake. Any advice?
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Neuro, I want to get your opinion. Please, thank you... I've been studying and playing for the last few months with that real time fake stock market investopedia. So far on my first investment I'm making an Annual Return bouncing between 20 to 32%. I tried to only play with the amount of fake money that I would be able to invest real money per month. Showing a profit of 7000.00 since I started or whenever it was I posted about this before? Anyway, in your opinion, at what point should I dump the play and apply real time. I feel like trying now! But I'm a bit uneasy with the immediate success of playing it fake, like I feel I should have fucked up first as if that were the point of playing it fake. Any advice?
Good question.
Dan Zanger paper traded for a year, until he switched up to real trades.
No rush, it's not a race. If you feel like trying now, then you can go for it, try a stop loss order, and don't play on margin yet.
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Neuro, I want to get your opinion. Please, thank you... I've been studying and playing for the last few months with that real time fake stock market investopedia. So far on my first investment I'm making an Annual Return bouncing between 20 to 32%. I tried to only play with the amount of fake money that I would be able to invest real money per month. Showing a profit of 7000.00 since I started or whenever it was I posted about this before? Anyway, in your opinion, at what point should I dump the play and apply real time. I feel like trying now! But I'm a bit uneasy with the immediate success of playing it fake, like I feel I should have fucked up first as if that were the point of playing it fake. Any advice?
HC, paper trading excludes normal human emotion/fear, thus making it easier to see trading profits. with that in mind, you may want to consider trading very small shares to start and build your confidence........with emotion.
although i somewhat agree with YAM's post, i still believe trading without emotion is far too easy considering you have nothing to lose.
IMO, a "normal market environment" (an up-trending market void of raging inflation and recession fears) is much easier for a beginner to learn and gain much needed confidence. so, if you decide to use real money in this current market, be careful and start w/ very small share amounts and use stop loses to protect yourself. ( this is probably the most challenging market environment i've seen in 20 yrs, so utmost caution should be utilized. )
hope this helps.
NT
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guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.
i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
NT
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i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
4/30/08 NEW YORK (MarketWatch)
After the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to an intraday high of 13,010.0 .
But the stock market's enthusiasm quickly waned, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day losing 11.81 points to end at 12,820.13, with 16 of its 30 components losing ground.
NT
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HC, paper trading excludes normal human emotion/fear, thus making it easier to see trading profits. with that in mind, you may want to consider trading very small shares to start and build your confidence........with emotion.
although i somewhat agree with YAM's post, i still believe trading without emotion is far too easy considering you have nothing to lose.
IMO, a "normal market environment" (an up-trending market void of raging inflation and recession fears) is much easier for a beginner to learn and gain much needed confidence. so, if you decide to use real money in this current market, be careful and start w/ very small share amounts and use stop loses to protect yourself. ( this is probably the most challenging market environment i've seen in 20 yrs, so utmost caution should be utilized. )
hope this helps.
NT
yes, thank you, those are things I did not even think about.
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oh crap never mind, Zanger was paper trading for 5 + years.
oh also he blew up three previous trading accounts even after those 5 years of keeping in contact with the market.
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Layoffs jump to 19-month high in April
May 1, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Led by cost-conscious financial companies, major U.S. corporations announced 90,015 job reductions in April, up 68% from March and the most since September 2006, according to a monthly tally released Thursday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.
Announced layoffs through the first four months of the year have grown to 290,671, up 9% from a year ago.
NT
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Foreclosures spike 112% - no end in sight
April 29, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Foreclosure filings in the first three months of 2008 rose more than 112% over last year, according to a study released Tuesday.
Real estate information firm RealtyTrac reported that nearly 650,000 foreclosure filings -which include notices of default, auction sales and bank repossessions - were issued in the first quarter and marks a 23% increase from the last quarter of 2007.
NT
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guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.
i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
NT
my opinion is unchanged.
NT
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lots of manipulating going on right now in this market. without some earth shattering positive economic news, 13,000 will be where this earnings season rally ends IMHO.
NT
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Interesting to see how much effort the PPT will put into this. Most likely trying to keep a hold until Bush gets out. Then booooom.
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you know nothing about stocks but your cute
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you know nothing about stocks but your cute
??? :D
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The dollar weakened against 11 of the 16 most-traded currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech that mortgage delinquencies will weigh on U.S. economic growth.
The currency may decline for a second day against the euro and yen after Fed data showed yesterday that its seven interest rate cuts since September haven't made it cheaper to borrow money. The Australian dollar traded near a 24-year high on speculation the country's central bank will keep borrowing costs at a 12-year high today to curb inflation.
``It's going to be a bumpy ride for the dollar,'' said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation's second-largest lender. ``Bernanke's comments may cause the dollar to fall against the euro. The implication is the Fed is going to continue to provide liquidity.''
Bernanke said rising mortgage foreclosures may push home prices down further, hurting the broader economy and threatening the financial system, in a speech to a Columbia Business School dinner. He also said lenders should forgive portions of mortgages and backed the idea of a federal agency refinancing troubled home loans.
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oil will be down to 70 by christmas time.
Crude oil hits new high of $121.49 on weak dollar
May 6, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures gained for a third day Tuesday, rising more than $1.5 to a new record of $121.49 a barrel, as weakness in the U.S. dollar boosted dollar-denominated oil prices.
NT
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The dollar weakened against 11 of the 16 most-traded currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech that mortgage delinquencies will weigh on U.S. economic growth.
The currency may decline for a second day against the euro and yen after Fed data showed yesterday that its seven interest rate cuts since September haven't made it cheaper to borrow money. The Australian dollar traded near a 24-year high on speculation the country's central bank will keep borrowing costs at a 12-year high today to curb inflation.
``It's going to be a bumpy ride for the dollar,'' said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation's second-largest lender. ``Bernanke's comments may cause the dollar to fall against the euro. The implication is the Fed is going to continue to provide liquidity.''
Bernanke said rising mortgage foreclosures may push home prices down further, hurting the broader economy and threatening the financial system, in a speech to a Columbia Business School dinner. He also said lenders should forgive portions of mortgages and backed the idea of a federal agency refinancing troubled home loans.
Alot of people wonder when the housing prices will bottom out. In my opinion its an easy answer. They have to go back to early 2000 when prices were more realistic with income earnings. But now ive changed my opinion because back then fuel prices were reasonable as was food and credit. Since then many are losing jobs or forced to take paycuts because of less spending in individual businesses. Another factor is that builders overbuilt and theres more homes than needed..(Of course theyre overpriced and arent moving).
So now we have stagflation rearing its head, too many homes on the market, job losses or layoffs...etc. Indeed if the Fed didnt bailout the mortgage banks we'd be in hella trouble.
Home pricing will fall to below 2000 rates easily, if not more. Much worse conditions from this admin than imagined.
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Crude oil hits new high of $121.49 on weak dollar
May 6, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures gained for a third day Tuesday, rising more than $1.5 to a new record of $121.49 a barrel, as weakness in the U.S. dollar boosted dollar-denominated oil prices.
NT
I think you already made your point, alex made a mistake, big deal. I wonder if you would have a meltdown if someone start messing with your bro. Lets try?
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I think you already made your point, alex made a mistake, big deal. I wonder if you would have a meltdown if someone start messing with your bro. Lets try?
NT created this thread to provide info for those following the stock market.
Alex comes on this thread and starts talking shit to NT for no reason, makes some bullshit calls, and then is exposed for his complete lack of understanding the markets. If NT did not continually embarrass him, he would be 10 times as likey to force his stupidity on us as he is now.
His next prediction was "Oil is in a Bubble" which is about as worthwhile a piece of info as saying "its going to rain in the future"
I guess he has pulled back the specifics of his predictions, but still feels the need to run his mouth and chase attention.
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I think you already made your point, alex made a mistake, big deal. I wonder if you would have a meltdown if someone start messing with your bro. Lets try?
Fuck you, I find it entertaining. ;D
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NT created this thread to provide info for those following the stock market.
Alex comes on this thread and starts talking shit to NT for no reason, makes some bullshit calls, and then is exposed for his complete lack of understanding the markets. If NT did not continually embarrass him, he would be 10 times as likey to force his stupidity on us as he is now.
His next prediction was "Oil is in a Bubble" which is about as worthwhile a piece of info as saying "its going to rain in the future"
I guess he has pulled back the specifics of his predictions, but still feels the need to run his mouth and chase attention.
LOL. Like having a big dog bark when your doorbell rings. Makes em think twice. ;D
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Fed's Hoenig says inflation troublesome and too high
May 7, 2008
DENVER (MarketWatch) -- A veteran U.S. central bank official said Tuesday he's worried about a deteriorating inflationary environment, and suggested that when the Federal Reserve begins to raise rates, it could do so swiftly.
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said rising inflationary pressures are "troublesome" and a "serious" matter, and now stand at "unacceptably high levels." He added, "the bigger concern is that these increases are beginning to generate an inflation psychology to an extent that I have not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s."
Hoenig fretted further that "there is a significant risk that higher inflation will become embedded in the economy and require significant monetary policy tightening to reduce it."
finally, a Fed member talking some sense !
NT
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right now this market is solely dependent on "market makers" forcing shorts to cover their positions in order to move the market higher.
no new money is entering.
NT
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i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
U.S. Stocks Decline, Led by Financials on New Securities Rules
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks declined the most in a month, led by financial shares, after new securities rules spurred speculation investment banks will be forced to reveal additional losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 211.61, or 1.6 percent, to 12,809.22.
NT
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Paulson sees end of credit crunch
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said that the worst of the credit crunch may have passed. He said the financial market turmoil that has led to massive losses at Wall Street banks had eased.
However, he acknowledged that the US economy was still facing tough times as people coped with soaring petrol prices and a weak job market.
He said rising energy prices could limit the effect of a $168bn (£86bn) package to stimulate the economy through tax rebates.
"Obviously, the high price of gasoline is unwelcome and is a challenge and is a headwind," he said.
Oil prices have hit a record level of $123 a barrel and this has been reflected in pump prices.
Many economists expect the US to fall into a recession this year as a housing slump and market turmoil take their toll on the wider economy.
But Mr Paulson said he expected the economy to improve this year as the tax rebates get businesses and consumers spending again.
However, he said that credit markets were still not functioning in a normal manner.
"I wouldn't be surprised at all to see more bumps in the road," he said.
::)
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if you had 100K American sitting around and since the dollar is tanking what currencies would you put it in?
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if you had 100K American sitting around and since the dollar is tanking what currencies would you put it in?
The amero. ;D
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The amero. ;D
:(
I hope it doesn't happen.
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Neurotoxin,
Can you answer my question @ http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=213529.0 ?
Thank you!
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if you had 100K American sitting around and since the dollar is tanking what currencies would you put it in?
Send me a PM, I have a few ideas for you.
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guys....pay no attention to the market during earnings season in a Bear Market. too much game playing goes on to suck the general public back in. most economic news is horrible on a daily basis and the market still heads higher....now's the time to be very careful. these rallies are referred to as Bear Market rallies from shorts covering their positions.
i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
now that the market has failed @ Dow 13,000, ;) i expect Dow 12,500 to be our next stop on the downside.
NT
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Mortgage crisis seeps to prime loans
May 9 2008 USA TODAY
The first concrete evidence that delinquencies on mortgage bills have spread well beyond those with subpar credit shows that even prime borrowers have increasingly fallen behind on their house payments.
About 2.3% of prime loans were 60 days' past due in February, the highest level in at least a decade
NT
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now that the market has failed @ Dow 13,000, ;) i expect Dow 12,500 to be our next stop on the downside.
NT
What is lowest prediction? 9500?
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Sorry to go a little off topic in your thread, but I have another question if you don't mind.
Has/will gold ever drastically lose value?
???
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Has/will gold ever drastically lose value?
Yes, the gold chain for example, loses value when it turns your skin green when you get it wet in the shower.
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LOL @ All the people who will blame obama for a market collapse that comes about 5 minutes into his presidency.
You know they will too. "It happened on Obama's watch--- Bush had everything great then Obama crashed it!" hahahaha oh brother what buffoonery.
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Yes, the gold chain for example, loses value when it turns your skin green when you get it wet in the shower.
I thought I was just allergic to gold?
??? ;D
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You know they will too. "It happened on Obama's watch--- Bush had everything great then Obama crashed it!" hahahaha oh brother what buffoonery.
didnt you say that 9/11 was in part Bush's fault cause it happend on his watch?
Fact of the matter is Obama can't lead a country, and his pacifist ways will lead to the complete end of US hegemony.
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didnt you say that 9/11 was in part Bush's fault cause it happend on his watch?
No. I simply echoed the reports that he was informed on Aug 5 and chose not to prevent it.
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didnt you say that 9/11 was in part Bush's fault cause it happend on his watch?
Fact of the matter is Obama can't lead a country, and his pacifist ways will lead to the complete end of US hegemony.
Who told NORAD to shut down while planes were flying into bldgs??
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gbers, think about it, we are now in the FOURTH consecutive financial bubble, all contrived to sustain the investor class...... to the detriment of the general public. the latest bubble will cause much worse destruction than any of the previous ones.
lacking our once powerful manufacturing-based economy, the united states has come to depend on one financial “bubble” after another to keep its economy afloat. unfortunately, each successive bubble aids fewer people and costs more in the end to clean up once it’s popped. the dot.com bubble was followed by the enron bubble, then the housing bubble, and now we're in the commodities bubble. each of these has caused progressively more damage to the value of the dollar and a disproportionate harm to the middle class.
the u.s. has clearly lost all fiscal control and is now solely dependent on various schemes to generate income for itself and the wealthy. eventually, if our "house of cards" is left unchanged, serious consequences will be felt by ALL.
NT
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May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Former American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg said the insurer is in ``crisis'' and should delay its annual meeting so shareholders can consider the impact of two losing quarters.
Investors need more time to discuss the record $7.81 billion first-quarter net loss disclosed last week before meeting in two days at AIG's New York headquarters, Greenberg said in a regulatory filing today. AIG rejected the suggestion, spokesman Chris Winans said today in a statement.
Chief Executive Officer Martin Sullivan said last week AIG, the world's largest insurer by assets, needed $12.5 billion in capital and may face more writedowns after losses tied to debt markets. Greenberg, 83, who was forced out in 2005 amid sales and accounting investigations, today called recent quarters the worst in AIG's history and questioned management's decision to raise money by issuing shares.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke lunched on March 11 with a Who's Who of Wall Street leaders, including JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Jamie Dimon, three days before the central bank rescued Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy.
Other guests included Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. CEO Richard Fuld, Morgan Stanley President James Gorman, Citigroup Inc.'s Robert Rubin, Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman and Merrill Lynch & Co. CEO John Thain. Alan Schwartz, the CEO of Bear Stearns, was not listed among the attendees.
The luncheon at the New York Fed gave Bernanke a chance to hear from chiefs of some of the biggest U.S. financial companies and hedge funds in the middle of his most tumultuous month as central bank chief. The meeting came hours after he announced plans to lend $200 billion of Treasuries in exchange for debt including mortgage-backed securities.
The collapse of the subprime-mortgage market has led to $323 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses at financial institutions since the start of 2007. The situation calls for the Fed chairman to cultivate ``increased contacts and understanding with Wall Street,'' said Kenneth Thomas, a lecturer in finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who has researched Bernanke's schedule.
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gbers, think about it, we are now in the FOURTH consecutive financial bubble, all contrived to sustain the investor class...... to the detriment of the general public. the latest bubble will cause much worse destruction than any of the previous ones.
lacking our once powerful manufacturing-based economy, the united states has come to depend on one financial “bubble” after another to keep its economy afloat. unfortunately, each successive bubble aids fewer people and costs more in the end to clean up once it’s popped. the dot.com bubble was followed by the enron bubble, then the housing bubble, and now we're in the commodities bubble. each of these has caused progressively more damage to the value of the dollar and a disproportionate harm to the middle class.
the u.s. has clearly lost all fiscal control and is now solely dependent on various schemes to generate income for itself and the wealthy. eventually, if our "house of cards" is left unchanged, serious consequences will be felt by ALL.
NT
Amen to that. But maybe we can think like a neo con and deny it until we're in a food line.
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Federal spending rising twice as fast as taxes
May 12, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal spending is rising more than twice as fast as receipts so far this fiscal year, reflecting the economic slump and the rising costs of military expenditures, the Treasury Department reported Monday.
NT
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Home prices continue sharp descent
May 13, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Single-family home prices dropped 7.7% in the first quarter in the largest year-over-year decline since the National Association of Realtors began reporting prices in 1982.
NT
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Bernanke: Financial markets are still 'far from normal'
WASHINGTON — Turmoil in financial markets has eased, but the situation is still "far from normal," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday.
The central bank has taken a number of unconventional steps — especially since March, when the credit crisis intensified — to help squeezed banks and big investment firms overcome problems and try to get credit flowing more freely again.
NT
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Why cut, paste, post news everyone can read on http://www.cnnfn.com ??? ???
Go start your own money/stock/business thread, you can post whatever opinion you have and I'm sure it'll surpass this thread in a couple of weeks. ::)
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U.S. Foreclosures Rise 65 Percent as Vacated Homes Add to Glut
May 14, 2008 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. foreclosure filings climbed 65 percent and bank seizures more than doubled in April from a year earlier as rates on adjustable mortgages increased and vacated homes added to a glut of unsold homes, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
More than 243,300 properties were in some stage of foreclosure, the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac, a seller of default data, began statistics in January 2005.
The collapse of the U.S. housing market, the worst since the Great Depression, is contributing to the economic slowdown and may push the economy into a recession. Median prices for a single- family home fell 7.7 percent in the first quarter, the biggest drop in 29 years, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday. There were 4.06 million U.S. homes for sale at the end of March, 40,000 more than the prior month, the Realtors association said in an April 22 report.
guys, do NOT believe the BS you hear on TV that the worst is over. it's far from over.
between the housing crisis, gas prices, soaring inflation on all goods and the lack of available credit to borrowers, this crisis could go on well into 2009-10 before it begins to "stabilize."
NT
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guys....this article is highly accurate and worth reading. this illustrates how our government fudges economic numbers to help Wall Street and avoid the true nature of our country's economic situation. this mornings inflation numbers will underscore my point.
NT
Economic 'misery' more widespread
Some experts argue that true inflation and unemployment -- the components of the economy's 'Misery Index' -- are higher than the government's official figures.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Americans are feeling a lot more economic pain than the government's official statistics would lead you to believe, according to a growing number of experts.
They argue that figures on unemployment and inflation are being understated by the government.
Unemployment and inflation are typically added together to come up with a so-called "Misery Index."
The "Misery Index" was often cited during periods of high unemployment and inflation, such as the mid 1970s and late 1970s to early 1980s.
And some fear the economy may be approaching those levels again.
The official numbers produce a current Misery Index of only 9, not far from the low of 6.1 seen in 1998.
But using the estimates on CPI and unemployment from economists skeptical of the government numbers, the Misery Index is actually in the teens. Some worry it could even approach the post-World War II record of 20.6 in 1980.
"We're looking at government numbers that are really out of whack," said Kevin Phillips, author of the book "Bad Money."
No inflation if you don't eat or drive
According to the government's most recent Consumer Price Index, a key inflation reading, consumer prices rose 4% in the 12 months ending in March. The April CPI report will be released Wednesday morning and economists expect no change from March, despite record gas prices.
But Phillips argues that consumer prices are probably up at least 5% and perhaps more than 10%.
Part of the disconnect may be due to the fact that nondurable goods, such as food and gasoline, makes up only 12% of CPI.
In addition, food and energy prices are eliminated from the so-called core CPI, which many economists tend to focus more closely on because they claim food and gas prices are volatile.
But food and energy costs are a part of household budgets that are very important to consumers. And those prices have been skyrocketing: gas prices were up about 25% over the 12 months ending in March while food prices rose 4.5% over the same period.
To that end, nearly half of the respondents of a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll said inflation was the biggest problem they face.
CPI missed the housing bubble...and bust
Another problem with the CPI figures, according to skeptics, is that it doesn't accurately reflect what's going on in the housing market. That's significant because the cost of buying a home has twice the impact on CPI as does the prices of all nondurable goods combined.
The CPI showed only an 11% rise in home ownership costs from 2002 through 2006, a time that the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home prices soared 34%.
The reason for the low CPI reading is because the CPI looks at equivalent rents, rather than home prices. So inflation was understated during this period, according to Phillips. He argues this may have helped feed the housing boom since it kept mortgage rates lower than they should have been.
Now that the housing boom has gone bust, the CPI appears to be missing the declines in home prices as well; it estimates that the cost of owning a home posted a 12-month increase of 2.6% in March.
But because the CPI figure was so far behind tracking the increase in home values, the housing component of CPI still is leading to a lower inflation reading than what it should be, Phillips said.
The inflation 'con job'
The unusual way that housing prices are estimated isn't the only peculiarity of the CPI report. Over the past ten years, there have been other changes in the calculations, particularly for big ticket items.
Cuts to estimated prices for items like electronics and cars that are thought to have improvements in quality year-after-year have lowered the overall CPI. In addition, changes in the way certain products, such as food, are tracked by the government, have also contributed to lower readings than otherwise expected.
Bill Gross, the manager of Pimco Total Return, the nation's largest bond fund, refers to the CPI as a "con job" that deliberately understates the price pressures faced by Americans in order to keep Social Security payments and other government costs pegged to the index unduly low.
In a report about the CPI, he noted that some of the adjustments don't accurately reflect how much consumers pay for goods. Pimco estimates that the changes have shaved more than a percentage point off the CPI.
Another flaw with the CPI numbers is that the government now assumes that higher prices for one item will lead consumers to buy more of a substitution item. That may be true. But if people buy fewer steaks and more hamburgers, for example, it's unrealistic to say that inflation isn't a problem, skeptics maintain.
"The government can claim there's no inflation but all they're measuring is a reduced standard of living," argues Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, an investment firm specializing in overseas investments.
With all this in mind, California economist John Williams argues that CPI is understating inflation by at least 3 percentage points and perhaps as much as 7 percentage points. So instead of an annual inflation rate of 4%, the true number could be between 7% and 11%.
Unemployed, but not counted
Finally, there's the unemployment rate. It was at a relatively low 5% in April. But according to Williams' Web site, ShadowStats.com, the actual rate may be between 8% and 12% if you use a more accurate reading of those out of work.
Even the government's own numbers show there are many unemployed people not showing up in the unemployment rate. The official reading does not include 4.8 million people who want to work but haven't found a job, for example.
Many of these people are dropped from the official calculation because they have become so discouraged from looking without success that they haven't looked in the previous four weeks. Simply adding those people to the number of unemployed takes the current unemployment rate to 7.8%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces both the CPI and unemployment readings, says changes in both measures were made to more accurately reflect the real world. The BLS also says the changes have resulted in changes of less than 1% for each measure.
Still, the Labor Department's own broadest measure of unemployment, which includes as jobless those working part-time jobs because they can't find full-time positions as well as some discouraged job seekers, puts the unemployment rate at 9.2% in April, the highest level for that reading in more than three years.
So if you take that number and add that to the 7% that Williams thinks is a more likely annual inflation rate, you're looking at a "Misery Index" of 16.2, much worse than the 9 you get from the official numbers.
And while that may seem a bit high, it's probably a more accurate gauge of how bad the economy is for many Americans.
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the Government reported this morning that energy prices are decelerating and that inflation was weaker than expected. ::)
please understand that these released numbers are totally fudged and not reality.
these lies are designed to help Wall Street.....not Main Street.
IMHO, the FALSE Market information provided by this administration is CRIMINAL and Socialism to a level this country has never witnessed.
simply amazing.
NT
Consumer-level inflation tame in April, U.S. says
May 14, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer prices increased a moderate 0.2% in April with decelerating energy prices offsetting rising food prices, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index increased 0.1%, the government said.
Inflation was just a bit weaker than expected. Economists had been looking for both the CPI and the core rate to rise 0.2%.
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Nice to see an article talking about the truth in numbers.
Gas rises 25% in 12 months and washington reports 0.02% increase in energy prices!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I could spit nails sometimes.. >:(
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Stocks rise as tame report eases inflation worries
May 14, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday after April data calmed worries about inflation, helping lift financial and consumer discretionary stocks, and Freddie Mac reported smaller losses than expected, offsetting credit-market jitters.
"It's a market number that we need to take with a grain of salt, but markets react to headline numbers," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak, of the consumer price index report, which prompted stock futures to reverse course higher before Wall Street's start. "Anybody who believes inflation moderated is not living in the real world," said Boockvar.
NT
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funny story......after the bogus inflation numbers were released this morning, some floor traders @ NYSE donned chef hats yelling "cooked, cooked" ! ;D
NT
LMAO... ;D
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i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
opinion still unchanged.
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guys....intervention by the PPT and a daily dose of "cooked" numbers by our Government has left many professionals shaking their collective heads.
in this type of "fixed" market environment, normal market activity is OUT THE WINDOW. (see below)
New home construction rises in April
May 16, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Initial construction of U.S. homes rose unexpectedly in April, according to a government report released Friday
NT
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guys....intervention by the PPT and a daily dose of "cooked" numbers by our Government has left many professionals shaking their collective heads. ???
in this type of "fixed" market environment, normal market activity is OUT THE WINDOW. (see below)
New home construction rises in April ::)
May 16, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Initial construction of U.S. homes rose unexpectedly in April, according to a government report released Friday
NT
At least 4 neo-cons here will believe this report.....sad really.
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finally, a "non-government" number reveals the truth.
Consumer sentiment falls in May to lowest since 1980
May 16, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment dropped in May to its lowest level since 1980, according to a Friday report, as higher fuel and food prices, coupled with declining home values, weighed on financial expectations.
The U.S. consumer sentiment index in May fell to 59.5 from 62.6 in April, according to a Friday report from University of Michigan/Reuters. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a result of 61.0.
NT
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This is a fugging nightmare.
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guys....intervention by the PPT and a daily dose of "cooked" numbers by our Government has left many professionals shaking their collective heads. ???
in this type of "fixed" market environment, normal market activity is OUT THE WINDOW.
Stocks rise as recession fears dwindle
May 19, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks advanced on Monday, with data suggesting the U.S. economy may not be in recession ::) helping overcome concerns over record crude oil prices.
"The market seems to be defying gravity here, rising on light volume and very little good news," said Marc Pado, market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
light volume = WS's big players staying away.
NT
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Lowe's falls 18%, hurt by housing market
May 19, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Lowe's Cos., the No. 2 U.S. home-improvement retailer, said Monday that its first-quarter profit dropped 18%, hurt by the declining housing market and a spate of other economic worries that cut into consumers' discretionary spending.
guys, as long as "cooked numbers" continue to flow from our Government, this market will move higher...... on low volume.
keep in mind, it's an election year. ;)
NT
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It's not a recession until the rich say it's a recession.
And the rich now say it's a recession.
The American Express Publishing Corp. and Harrison Group recently surveyed 638 well-to-do households, representing the wealthiest 10 percent of Americans. These 12 million households account for half of all U.S. retail spending and $4.1 trillion worth of consumption.
More than 90 percent of them indicated they believe the U.S. economy is in a recession or on the precipice of one.
"They are as down on the economy as you can imagine," said Jim Taylor, vice chairman of Harrison Group, which co-produces "The Annual Survey of Affluence and Wealth in America."
Here's what they said:
• "I think we are in for a long rough ride ahead," 73 percent.
• "My company is looking at cutting costs and could be letting people go," 48 percent.
• "I am looking closely at every spending category to see where we can save," 68 percent.
• "I usually wait for something to go on sale before I buy it," 82 percent.
High-end retailers are already feeling their well-heeled customers' pain. Last week, Nordstrom reported a 24 percent decline in first-quarter profit. And Whole Foods stock fell more than 12 percent after the company reporting a 13 percent decline in first-quarter profit.
Sales of luxury cars are down, and even some million-dollar homes are falling into foreclosure.
New consumer confidence numbers, reported Friday, show consumers
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at all levels are the sourest they've been in 28 years.
Falling real estate values, soaring gasoline prices, a flat stock market and tightening credit have taken such a toll we look back to an era of stagflation for comparisons.
Warren Buffett has said he believes we're in a recession.
Billionaire trader George Soros has said he believes we're in the middle of a popping "super-bubble" that has been building for the past quarter century.
"I consider this the biggest financial crisis of my lifetime," Soros told the New York Times last month.
When the rich feel pinched, they begin to manage risks more carefully, investing less in ideas that might actually create jobs and reinvigorate the economy.
"We're entering a period of serious risk management," said Taylor. "It's a very problematic sign."
When it comes to pinpointing the causes of the recession, the rich are no different than you and me. Here's what they said in the survey:
• "The real cause of this recession is the free and easy availability of debt in America," 81 percent.
• "Big banks and corporations have again put the whole economy at risk," 69 percent.
• "Poor leadership in Washington has brought about this recession," 68 percent.
• "I am concerned that America is becoming a second-class economy," 67 percent.
Perhaps this is a sign things have finally hit bottom and will start to turn around. Surely, we can't expect first-class people to live in a second-class economy.
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U.S. stock futures sag as Home Depot profit drops
May 20, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures dropped Tuesday as Home Depot reported a 66% profit fall and as other leading retailers are expected to show the impact of the depressed housing market and rising gasoline prices on spending.
gber's, only non-government numbers will show the true extent of the US recession. all other numbers are spurious.
NT
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U.S. stock futures sag as Home Depot profit drops
May 20, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures dropped Tuesday as Home Depot reported a 66% profit fall and as other leading retailers are expected to show the impact of the depressed housing market and rising gasoline prices on spending.
gber's, only non-government numbers will show the true extent of the US recession. all other numbers are spurious.
NT
Holy shit! 66%! The housing market is doing better! Yay!
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3 places in my town, there is a huge intersection with Lowes and Home Depot across form each other.
That is necessary during a construction boom, and very unnecessary when there is no construction. It should be expected to drop when constuction drops. 66%... lol... that's nuts.
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Stocks tumble on inflation fears
Wall Street posts big, wide-spread losses on inflation concerns, and big jumps in crude oil and gold prices.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slid Tuesday, with the Dow losing nearly 200 points, as spiking oil and gas prices and a bigger-than-expected jump in a key inflation measure rattled investors.
i thought the government recently reported inflation was tame ? ;)
Consumer-level inflation tame in April, U.S. says
May 14, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer prices increased a moderate 0.2% in April with decelerating energy prices offsetting rising food prices, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index increased 0.1%, the government said.
Inflation was just a bit weaker than expected. Economists had been looking for both the CPI and the core rate to rise 0.2%.
NT
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NT when do you expect the downward fall of the economy to bottom out? It being an election year could mess things up for longer right??
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NT when do you expect the downward fall of the economy to bottom out? It being an election year could mess things up for longer right??
Watch the price of oil. It will not happen until the price comes down. My good friend in the military told me that steps are being taken by the USA to develop Africa's oil. Deployment of 40,000 troops to Africa is forthcoming.
I don't think people realize how serious 130 dollar oil is. This will bring about the destruction of our economy.
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Watch the price of oil. It will not happen until the price comes down. My good friend in the military told me that steps are being taken by the USA to develop Africa's oil. Deployment of 40,000 troops to Africa is forthcoming.
I don't think people realize how serious 130 dollar oil is. This will bring about the destruction of our economy.
True. At the rate its going it could collapse the economy over time. Oil might not be just a bubble if china and india keep demanding more.
We need to open our own fields...at this point even treehuggers would have to agree.
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True. At the rate its going it could collapse the economy over time. Oil might not be just a bubble if china and india keep demanding more.
We need to open our own fields...at this point even treehuggers would have to agree.
Even with drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), it will take 5 years to develop, and 15 years to hit peak production, so we are looking at 20 years before ANWR delivers its full promise. Even then, the daily production of 500,000 barrels per day with current US consumption at 20 Million barrels/day is hardly going to put a dent in the situation.
We are screwed, there is no getting around it.
Stephen Leeb also makes a good argument that Iran, Saudi, & Iraq are grossly overstating (lying about) their reserves.
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Guys, this is some whacked shit. We're at $130/bbl mother fvckers. Wake up.
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True. At the rate its going it could collapse the economy over time. Oil might not be just a bubble if china and india keep demanding more.
We need to open our own fields...at this point even treehuggers would have to agree.
Are you suggesting we knock India off the map?
I agree
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Warren Buffett, the world’s richest man and chief executive of conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, on Monday said he thought the effects of the financial crisis were “far from over”.
Mr Buffett was speaking at a press conference in Frankfurt, where he is meeting German family-owned businesses as part of a four-country tour of Europe.
"It is rippling - there are secondary and tertiary effects. I think the Wall Street crisis is mostly over although I don’t know. The [Federal Reserve] with its Bear Stearns rescue largely stopped that. But I don’t think we are half way or even a quarter of the way through the impact in the general economy,” he said.
The “Sage of Omaha” said the effects of the crisis were beginning to be felt not just by those who had behaved the “silliest” but also now by people “who did sound things”.
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NT when do you expect the downward fall of the economy to bottom out? It being an election year could mess things up for longer right??
all i will say is we're NOT close yet. housing, credit markets and oil need to stabilize before anything positive can occur to our overall economy.
being an election year complicates matters. manipulation of our stock market by the PPT is utilized to give americans a more "positive" feeling in the hopes they'll spend more and vote accordingly.
WH, when my indicators point to a turnaround beginning, i'll be the first to let you guys know.
now is not that time, IMHO.
NT
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i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
NT
U.S. Stocks Extend Drop on Fed Minutes; Banks Fall
May 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a second day, led by banks and retailers, as the Federal Reserve signaled it is done cutting interest rates and record oil prices threatened to reduce profits at consumer companies.
Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its biggest two-day tumble since February.
The Dow dropped 226.35 points or 1.8 percent, to 12,602.00. ;)
NT
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Guys, this is some whacked shit. We're at $130/bbl mother fvckers. Wake up.
sorry BD $133.00 per barrel as of today. :o
NT
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sorry BD $133.00 per barrel as of today. :o
NT
Yeah, I just caught that a little while ago. Heres some more good news.
The US Federal Reserve has cut its 2008 growth forecast for the US economy and predicted that unemployment will rise more than it had previously expected.
The Fed cut its growth forecast for this year by to a new range of between 0.3% and 1.2%, down from the 1.3% to 2% predicted in February.
The US central bank also said the jobless rate could reach 5.7%.
But further interest rate cuts seem unlikely as the Fed focused on the persistent threat of higher inflation.
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Consumers can't save the economy
Americans are too deep in debt to lead the economy into a recovery, according to a new forecast.
May 21, 2008:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Consumers are too tapped out to lead the economy out of its troubles, according to a report on household credit released Wednesday.
Americans have little money on hand and banks aren't eager to lend anymore, said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com
It will also take years for consumers to straighten out their household budgets since their debt burdens are near record highs. :o
i thought the government said last week inflation was "tame" and everything was great? ::)
IMO, unless you understand how markets work, i'd be very careful. recent market rallies were all BS (sucker rallies) as my thread has pointed out on numerous occassions.
also, keep in mind the consumer accounts for 70% of all US economic activity. service economies (like ours) need a strong consumer. as you know, the US consumer is hurting bigtime, which will hurt corp. profits and drive stock prices lower.
WS is fully aware of the "cooked" numbers released by the Bush Administration on nearly a daily basis........so be careful ! ;)
NT
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Oil Rises Above $135 on Concern OPEC Is Powerless to Halt Rally
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record above $135 a barrel as OPEC ministers said they could do nothing to stop a rally that may be heading to $200 a barrel.
Oil has risen 19 percent this month as analysts increased their price forecasts because of supply constraints and demand growth. OPEC has ``no magic solution'' to the surge, Qatar's oil minister said. Prices are ``out of the hands'' of the organization, according to Libya's top oil official.
There's agreement that $200 is possible and that's getting more people into the market.
guys, if oil tops $200.00 per barrel, forget a recession, start thinking the "D" word coupled w/ a worldwide market collapse.
NT
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ok guys check out the latest "cooked" numbers released by the Administration this morning. since the market has dropped nearly 500 points in the last few days, these "fixed" numbers are put out to force the short players to cover, prompting another BS rally.
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 9,000 to 365,000
May 22, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment dropped by 9,000 to 365,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending May 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims were the lowest since the week ended April 5. ::)
NT
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U.S. Stocks Advance on Drop in Jobless Claims, Oil's Retreat
May 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks advanced for the first time in three days as an unexpected drop in jobless claims and the first retreat in oil prices in five days spurred optimism that the economy can avoid a recession.
The Dow increased 24.43, or 0.2 percent, to 12,625.62. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 16.31, or 0.7 percent, to 2,464.58. More than three stocks climbed for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.
NT
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Hey, this is more like youre own Blogsite in a thread. Cool. 8)
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i expect the market to fail @ the Dow 13,000 area.
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i expect Dow 12,500 to be our next stop on the downside.
NT
as expected, the market failed @ 13,000 12,500 to be our next stop on the downside IMHO.......if not lower.
a slow bleed out.......
NT
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the Government reported this morning that energy prices are decelerating and that inflation was weaker than expected. ::)
please understand that these released numbers are totally fudged and not reality
these lies are designed to help Wall Street.....not Main Street.
IMHO, the FALSE Market information provided by this administration is CRIMINAL.
guys, compare my post on 5/14, to pimco's bill gross' statement on 5/22.
rarely does a high profile fund manager tell the truth
U.S. inflation understated, Pimco's Gross says
May 22, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. government has been understating inflation, which has led investors to misprice stocks, bonds and real estate[/u][/b], noted bond-fund manager Bill Gross said Thursday.
The real problem is not that the government publishes dubious numbers but that investors believe them and make decisions based upon them, he said.
NT
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as expected, the market failed @ 13,000 12,500 to be our next stop on the downside IMHO.......if not lower.
Stocks drop as oil rally resumes, home woes return
May 23, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks fell on Friday and were poised for weekly losses, as crude oil surged back above $132 a barrel, putting renewed pressure on a market besieged by worries that inflation will crimp consumption and further weaken the economy.
The market's losses accelerated after a report showing inventories of unsold U.S. homes surged to a 23-year high in April.
"The bear-market rally [of the past two months] has petered out," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "The economy is not going to do any better anytime soon, as we heard from many companies this week, and on top of that we have surging energy prices."
The DOW was down 145.99 to close at 12,479.63, with 27 of its 30 components trading lower.
NT
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i know at least ONE person is reading it ! ;D
NT
Relentless. lol. How many views are we up to for this blog of yours.... :o
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what are your thoughts on this neurotoxin?
Curb on coin sales angers collectors
May 23, 2008 09:18 AM
The Wall Street Journal
The government rationed food during World War II and gasoline in the 1970s. Now, it's imposing quotas on another precious commodity: 2008 dollar coins known as silver eagles.
The coins, each containing about an ounce of silver, have become so popular among investors seeking alternatives to stocks and real estate that the U.S. Mint can't make them fast enough. In March, the mint stopped taking orders for the bullion coins. Late last month, it began limiting how many coins its 13 authorized buyers world-wide are allowed to purchase.
"This came out of nowhere," says Mark Oliari, owner of Coins 'N Things Inc. in Bridgewater, Mass., one of the biggest buyers of silver eagles. With customers demanding twice as many as they did last year, Mr. Oliari would like to buy 500,000 a week. But the mint will sell him only around 100,000.
The coins have a face value of $1. But the mint sells them for the going price of silver, plus a small premium, to a handful of wholesalers, brokerage companies, precious-metals firms, coin dealers and banks. The dealers mark the coins up a bit more and sell them to the public. Currently, the coins are fetching about $19 apiece, with some sellers seeking more than $20.
For Coins N Things alone, the shortage is costing hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost sales of silver eagles. The firm sells about $1 billion worth of precious metal every year, including silver, gold and platinum coins. Mr. Oliari, a 50-year-old numismatist who has been in the business since 1973, sniffs: "You can't print what I want to say about the mint."
The mint, a bureau of the U.S. Treasury, has offered little explanation beyond a memo last month to its dealers. "The unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins necessitates our allocating these coins on a weekly basis until we are able to meet demand," the mint wrote. A spokesman declined to elaborate.
The rare shortage offers a glimpse into the growing love of a commodity known as "poor man's gold." With more silver mined than gold traditionally, silver has always been far cheaper than gold and today has less than 2 percent of gold's value.
But silver is growing in popularity, and some investors are betting that its value will surge as inventory shrinks. Big investors are loading up on silver eagles, which are the only American silver coins allowed in individual retirement plans. For small investors, they are an accessible way to get into the metal boom.
"Unlike gold, these coins can be bought by regular citizens," says J.R. Roland, a Brownsville, Tenn., judge who recently began buying the coins - and trading them on eBay. "In these economic hard times, silver coins are a great way to invest."
In March, sales of silver eagles surged more than ninefold from the previous month, to 1.85 million. This year, the mint has sold 6.8 million, representing more than twice last year's pace. Still, numismatists are clamoring for millions more as the price of silver soars. It has more than doubled in the past three years and now trades at around $17 a troy ounce, which is slightly heavier than a traditional ounce.
Linda Wood, a 57-year-old Pittsburgh accountant, scours eBay, coin shops and flea markets in search of silver eagles. One by one, she has accumulated about 300 in the past few months and stores them in a bank safe-deposit box.
Traditional coin collectors may be impressed with the government's written description of silver eagles as "one of the most beautiful coins ever minted." But Ms. Wood isn't in it for aesthetics. She became a silver bug after she and her husband saw the value of their individual retirement accounts decline by $2,500 - a "significant" chunk. "I just need bullion," she says. "I wouldn't care if the coins were ugly."
Amid the mint caps, shady silver-eagle hawkers are thriving. Some coins are priced at $25 and higher. Mr. Roland says that he had to wait a month after ordering some on eBay recently, because the sellers didn't even have the goods. "I can't wait long, because you never know what's going to happen with the price," he says.
In Manitowoc, Wis., Dan Zirk, owner of Manitowoc Card & Coin, has sold twice as many silver eagles as he did last year. So he has stashed away his remaining handful of 2008 coins, betting the price will rise. "I want $22 apiece," says Mr. Zirk. He says customers, meanwhile, are asking for earlier years and other forms of silver.
The government began producing silver eagles in 1986, basing its design on Adolph Weinman's 1916 "Walking Liberty" half dollar. The front features a flag-draped Lady Liberty striding toward the sunrise, carrying branches of laurel and oak symbolizing civil and military glory. On the reverse, a design by John Mercanti features an eagle with a shield, olive branch, and talon and arrows.
The coins are made at an armored facility in West Point, N.Y., alongside the military academy. Dealers say they heard the mint had run out of planchets - round metal disks ready to be struck into coins. The disks are used for various coins, and the companies producing the blanks also are busy, limiting the mint's ability to increase production. The mint won't comment on the planchets.
Each Monday morning now, the mint divides its silver coins into two pools. It divvies up the first equally among authorized purchasers. The second is allocated proportionately, based on the buyer's past purchases. The mint limited purchases once before - in the late 1990s, when investors loaded up on silver, wrongly anticipating that a failure by the world's computers to adjust to the new millennium would cripple the economy.
Jim Hausman, head of the Gold Center in Springfield, Ill., one of eight companies in the U.S. authorized to buy silver eagles, estimates that the rationing will cut his expected annual sales of four million silver eagles in half.
And the result, he says, is almost un-American. Increasingly, investors are taking a shine to alternatives. The Royal Canadian Mint saw its sales of silver Canadian maple-leaf bullion coins rise 40 percent last year, to 3.5 million, according to a spokesman.
Some investors expect the craze to end badly. They draw comparisons to what happened to silver in the 1970s. A rich Texas family poured billions of dollars into silver, and prices surged above $50 an ounce in 1980, only to plunge again after government intervention.
"It's akin to what happened when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market," says Wendell Curry, who owns McAllen Gold & Silver Exchange in McAllen, Texas. "The silver hawks are now trying to corner silver American eagles. And it's making it harder for mom and pop to buy these for their grandchildren."
-
what are your thoughts on this neurotoxin?
Curb on coin sales angers collectors
May 23, 2008 09:18 AM
The Wall Street Journal
The government rationed food during World War II and gasoline in the 1970s. Now, it's imposing quotas on another precious commodity: 2008 dollar coins known as silver eagles.
The coins, each containing about an ounce of silver, have become so popular among investors seeking alternatives to stocks and real estate that the U.S. Mint can't make them fast enough. In March, the mint stopped taking orders for the bullion coins. Late last month, it began limiting how many coins its 13 authorized buyers world-wide are allowed to purchase.
"This came out of nowhere," says Mark Oliari, owner of Coins 'N Things Inc. in Bridgewater, Mass., one of the biggest buyers of silver eagles. With customers demanding twice as many as they did last year, Mr. Oliari would like to buy 500,000 a week. But the mint will sell him only around 100,000.
The coins have a face value of $1. But the mint sells them for the going price of silver, plus a small premium, to a handful of wholesalers, brokerage companies, precious-metals firms, coin dealers and banks. The dealers mark the coins up a bit more and sell them to the public. Currently, the coins are fetching about $19 apiece, with some sellers seeking more than $20.
For Coins N Things alone, the shortage is costing hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost sales of silver eagles. The firm sells about $1 billion worth of precious metal every year, including silver, gold and platinum coins. Mr. Oliari, a 50-year-old numismatist who has been in the business since 1973, sniffs: "You can't print what I want to say about the mint."
The mint, a bureau of the U.S. Treasury, has offered little explanation beyond a memo last month to its dealers. "The unprecedented demand for American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins necessitates our allocating these coins on a weekly basis until we are able to meet demand," the mint wrote. A spokesman declined to elaborate.
The rare shortage offers a glimpse into the growing love of a commodity known as "poor man's gold." With more silver mined than gold traditionally, silver has always been far cheaper than gold and today has less than 2 percent of gold's value.
But silver is growing in popularity, and some investors are betting that its value will surge as inventory shrinks. Big investors are loading up on silver eagles, which are the only American silver coins allowed in individual retirement plans. For small investors, they are an accessible way to get into the metal boom.
"Unlike gold, these coins can be bought by regular citizens," says J.R. Roland, a Brownsville, Tenn., judge who recently began buying the coins - and trading them on eBay. "In these economic hard times, silver coins are a great way to invest."
In March, sales of silver eagles surged more than ninefold from the previous month, to 1.85 million. This year, the mint has sold 6.8 million, representing more than twice last year's pace. Still, numismatists are clamoring for millions more as the price of silver soars. It has more than doubled in the past three years and now trades at around $17 a troy ounce, which is slightly heavier than a traditional ounce.
Linda Wood, a 57-year-old Pittsburgh accountant, scours eBay, coin shops and flea markets in search of silver eagles. One by one, she has accumulated about 300 in the past few months and stores them in a bank safe-deposit box.
Traditional coin collectors may be impressed with the government's written description of silver eagles as "one of the most beautiful coins ever minted." But Ms. Wood isn't in it for aesthetics. She became a silver bug after she and her husband saw the value of their individual retirement accounts decline by $2,500 - a "significant" chunk. "I just need bullion," she says. "I wouldn't care if the coins were ugly."
Amid the mint caps, shady silver-eagle hawkers are thriving. Some coins are priced at $25 and higher. Mr. Roland says that he had to wait a month after ordering some on eBay recently, because the sellers didn't even have the goods. "I can't wait long, because you never know what's going to happen with the price," he says.
In Manitowoc, Wis., Dan Zirk, owner of Manitowoc Card & Coin, has sold twice as many silver eagles as he did last year. So he has stashed away his remaining handful of 2008 coins, betting the price will rise. "I want $22 apiece," says Mr. Zirk. He says customers, meanwhile, are asking for earlier years and other forms of silver.
The government began producing silver eagles in 1986, basing its design on Adolph Weinman's 1916 "Walking Liberty" half dollar. The front features a flag-draped Lady Liberty striding toward the sunrise, carrying branches of laurel and oak symbolizing civil and military glory. On the reverse, a design by John Mercanti features an eagle with a shield, olive branch, and talon and arrows.
The coins are made at an armored facility in West Point, N.Y., alongside the military academy. Dealers say they heard the mint had run out of planchets - round metal disks ready to be struck into coins. The disks are used for various coins, and the companies producing the blanks also are busy, limiting the mint's ability to increase production. The mint won't comment on the planchets.
Each Monday morning now, the mint divides its silver coins into two pools. It divvies up the first equally among authorized purchasers. The second is allocated proportionately, based on the buyer's past purchases. The mint limited purchases once before - in the late 1990s, when investors loaded up on silver, wrongly anticipating that a failure by the world's computers to adjust to the new millennium would cripple the economy.
Jim Hausman, head of the Gold Center in Springfield, Ill., one of eight companies in the U.S. authorized to buy silver eagles, estimates that the rationing will cut his expected annual sales of four million silver eagles in half.
And the result, he says, is almost un-American. Increasingly, investors are taking a shine to alternatives. The Royal Canadian Mint saw its sales of silver Canadian maple-leaf bullion coins rise 40 percent last year, to 3.5 million, according to a spokesman.
Some investors expect the craze to end badly. They draw comparisons to what happened to silver in the 1970s. A rich Texas family poured billions of dollars into silver, and prices surged above $50 an ounce in 1980, only to plunge again after government intervention.
"It's akin to what happened when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market," says Wendell Curry, who owns McAllen Gold & Silver Exchange in McAllen, Texas. "The silver hawks are now trying to corner silver American eagles. And it's making it harder for mom and pop to buy these for their grandchildren."
Enjoy your paper.
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Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. fell in April and the supply of unsold properties reached a record, signaling no let-up in the 27-month housing slump.
Purchases declined 1 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million, higher than forecast, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price fell 8 percent from April last year, the second-biggest drop.
``There is no indication that things are improving,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, who forecast sales would drop to a 4.9 million pace. ``Inventories will stay out of balance at least until the end of 2009 and prices will keep falling.''
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Buffett: US recession to become 'longer, deeper'.
May 24, 2008
BERLIN (Reuters) - The United States is already in a recession and it will be longer as well as deeper than many people expect, U.S. investor Warren Buffett said in an interview published in German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday.
" The people are already feeling the effects," said Buffett, the world's richest man. "It will be deeper and last longer than many think."
NT
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If you go back to to great depression and the keynes theory, what is going on now is actually setting itself up to be far greater than the depression.
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If you go back to to great depression and the keynes theory, what is going on now is actually setting itself up to be far greater than the depression.
i agree YAM, it's the perfect storm.
NT
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I heard that citibank was putting restrictions on withdrawal limits now...
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I heard that citibank was putting restrictions on withdrawal limits now...
yep. Its a free country.
For the elite corporations........... :-\
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I heard that citibank was putting restrictions on withdrawal limits now...
You mean for their ATM's?
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I heard that citibank was putting restrictions on withdrawal limits now...
this country is totally unprepared for a "run" on banks. F.D.I.C. insurance has a measly 42 billion available if that "run" were to occur.
to put that figure in context, just the bailout of bear stearns cost 30 billion.
unprepared = understatement
NT
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this country is totally unprepared for a "run" on banks. F.D.I.C. insurance has a measly 42 billion available if that "run" were to occur.
to put that figure in context, just the bailout of bear stearns cost 30 billion.
unprepared = understatement
NT
Can someone post a link to this information of limiting withdrawls? thanks.
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You mean for their ATM's?
no wire transfers as well for some personal account holders, just as with Bank of America and personal accounts.
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Americans are too deep in debt to lead the economy into a recovery, according to a new forecast. The result: The recovery will be a bit slower.
Consumers are too tapped out to lead the economy out of its troubles, according to a report on household credit released Wednesday.
And even after things turn around, consumers weighed down by debt won't be able to spend as they did in the past.
Americans have little money on hand and banks aren't eager to lend anymore, said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com, which compiled the quarterly outlook report with Equifax. Consumers had the lowest percentage of unspent cash in the first quarter of 2008 since fall 1991, the report found.
Sluggish consumer spending power means that the recovery may be a little slower and less vigorous, leaving it to corporations to spur the economy
Good luck.
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Americans are too deep in debt to lead the economy into a recovery, according to a new forecast. The result: The recovery will be a bit slower.
Consumers are too tapped out to lead the economy out of its troubles, according to a report on household credit released Wednesday.
And even after things turn around, consumers weighed down by debt won't be able to spend as they did in the past.
Americans have little money on hand and banks aren't eager to lend anymore, said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com, which compiled the quarterly outlook report with Equifax. Consumers had the lowest percentage of unspent cash in the first quarter of 2008 since fall 1991, the report found.
Sluggish consumer spending power means that the recovery may be a little slower and less vigorous, leaving it to corporations to spur the economy
Good luck.
Oh crap. Theyre the ones screwing us in the first place........... :-[
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Americans are too deep in debt to lead the economy into a recovery, according to a new forecast. The result: The recovery will be a bit slower.
Consumers are too tapped out to lead the economy out of its troubles, according to a report on household credit released Wednesday.
And even after things turn around, consumers weighed down by debt won't be able to spend as they did in the past.
Americans have little money on hand and banks aren't eager to lend anymore, said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com, which compiled the quarterly outlook report with Equifax. Consumers had the lowest percentage of unspent cash in the first quarter of 2008 since fall 1991, the report found.
Sluggish consumer spending power means that the recovery may be a little slower and less vigorous, leaving it to corporations to spur the economy
Good luck.
one problem BD, without a healthy consumer, (70% of all US economic activity) corporations will suffer with lagging profits, making it impossible for them to spur the economy alone.
the only way out of this economic mess is to "take our medicine" and INCREASE interest rates. with inflation currently running in double digits, ( yes, that's correct ) increasing interest rates will help decrease inflationary pressures by slowing down consumer spending/borrowing and spur savings.
history has proven the Fed's attempt to exit the 2001 recession by lowering interest rates to record lows, failed. in fact, it did little more than create the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression and ignite record inflation.
unfortunately, we cannot borrow our way out of this recession. "taking our medicine" is the only effective cure for what ails us.
NT
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this country is totally unprepared for a "run" on banks. F.D.I.C. insurance has a measly 42 billion available if that "run" were to occur.
to put that figure in context, just the bailout of bear stearns cost 30 billion.
unprepared = understatement
NT
Fear not, the FDIC has a "window of liquidity" with Da FED. ;D ;D ;D
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Confidence among US consumers hit its lowest level for 16 years in May, according to the Conference Board.
The research body's Consumer Confidence Index fell to a level of 57.2 in May, down from April's figure of 62.8.
The Conference Board blamed the pessimism on the short-term outlook for the US economy as well as weakening business and job conditions.
The figures tell a similar story to the University of Michigan's Index, which hit a 28-year low in May.
"There is a fear the economy is in a recession or going into one and people may find their jobs in jeopardy," said David Coard from the Williams Capital Group in New York.
"When you talk to people on the street they seem to be really being squeezed at the pump and the supermarket while their income isn't keeping up."
Turnaround unlikely
The Conference Board also issued pessimistic forecasts for the coming months.
"Consumers' inflation expectations, fuelled by increasing prices at the pump, are now at an all-time high and are likely to rise further in the months ahead," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.
"As for the short-term outlook, the Expectations Index suggests little likelihood of a turnaround in the immediate months ahead."
The index is based on responses from 5,000 US households.
It has plunged since last July, when it stood at 111.9.
Since then, the housing slump and rising prices for food and fuel have taken their toll on the mood among consumers.
The figures are closely watched because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic
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The dollar has been devalued down to .02 cents in today's purchasing power and Oil prices have to double within a one year period for the average American to take notice of "Inflation"
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there's a slow down but not earth shattering
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Megabubble waiting for new president in 2009
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843-69B4-4C0C-92CE-B835D9907945%7D (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843-69B4-4C0C-92CE-B835D9907945%7D)
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the 600 point drop in the market last week should encourage a new round of cooked numbers this week. during bear markets, most of the markets "up action" is nothing more than short's covering their old positions. NO NEW MONEY IS ENTERING THIS MARKET.
guys, be careful.
NT
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the 600 point drop in the market last week should encourage a new round of cooked numbers this week. during bear markets, most of the markets "up action" is nothing more than short's covering their old positions. NO NEW MONEY IS ENTERING THIS MARKET.
guys, be careful.
NT
zuckerman bought the GM building last weekend....the less advantaged should be rightfully careful
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the 600 point drop in the market last week should encourage a new round of cooked numbers this week. during bear markets, most of the markets "up action" is nothing more than short's covering their old positions. NO NEW MONEY IS ENTERING THIS MARKET.
as expected, a "cooked" durable goods number was just released. (up 2.5%) ;)
U.S. April Durable Goods Ex-Transportation Unexpectedly Jump
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods excluding transportation equipment unexpectedly rose in April by the most in nine months, signaling demand from abroad may be helping factories ride out the housing-led economic slowdown.
Excluding demand for airplanes and autos, which tends to be volatile, bookings for goods meant to last several years rose 2.5 percent, the most since July, the Commerce Department said today in Washington
NT
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as expected, a "cooked" durable goods number was just released. (up 2.5%) ;)
U.S. April Durable Goods Ex-Transportation Unexpectedly Jump
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods excluding transportation equipment unexpectedly rose in April by the most in nine months, signaling demand from abroad may be helping factories ride out the housing-led economic slowdown.
Excluding demand for airplanes and autos, which tends to be volatile, bookings for goods meant to last several years rose 2.5 percent, the most since July, the Commerce Department said today in Washington
NT
NT,
If all of these numbers are "cooked" as you put it, then how is anyone to make an accurate assessment of the economy?
What is the private sector using? Surely the real investors, hedge funds, and private equity dogs are not following this garbage?
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NT is giving you the straight shit.
Hedge funders (some) are allowed to short the market, and make money, also they play global (global sucks, markets are related)
It is not a stock market, but a market of stocks, most sectors and industries are underperforming even during this time, when some are supposed to be doing so-so, and it's May, so the liquidity in the market sucks.
The numbers are "cooked" since those numbers represent discounting, by contractors and homebuilders, who have MASSIVE inventory, and are wheeling and dealing with no down payments and slashing the prices in order to fill the homes that they have built, this looks good on the books, but bad in the pockets.
An "accurate" assessment of the economy comes at bottoms and at lows.
You know you have hit a good economy when public sentiment as well as business PR is high, you have hit or you begin to hit low when they diverge givt says good vs business and public saying bad.
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NT,
If all of these numbers are "cooked" as you put it, then how is anyone to make an accurate assessment of the economy?
What is the private sector using? Surely the real investors, hedge funds, and private equity dogs are not following this garbage?
SS, the people "in the know" understand how the system works, and that's all that really matters. the general public is both blind and clueless, and always will be. if they invest, they just come along for the ride....not knowing how or why. (not unlike most stock brokers)
with regards to our current bear market, the PPT's job is to create "bear market rallies." (short cover rallies) these BS type rallies slow down the pace of decent, suck in unsavvy investors, as well as help prevent a market crash type of scenario.
just my opinion.
NT
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im at you /proxy/ sniffing your /packets/
Did you predict your homosexual brother's dead lol
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SS, the people "in the know" understand how the system works, and that's all that really matters. the general public is both blind and clueless, and always will be. if they invest, they just come along for the ride....not knowing how or why. (not unlike most stock brokers)
with regards to our current bear market, the PPT's job is to create "bear market rallies." (short cover rallies) these BS type rallies slow down the pace of decent, suck in unsavvy investors, as well as help prevent a market crash type of scenario.
just my opinion.
NT
NT,
You claim that most stock brokers are just as dumb as the people handing them their money?
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NT,
You claim that most stock brokers are just as dumb as the people handing them their money?
correct, most (not all) stock brokers are little more than well dressed salesmen 8) . their expertise usually doesn't extend into how markets operate.
with few exceptions, a brokers main job is to sell you equities. knowledge of when to enter or exit is beyond their pay grade.
i spoke with one broker around the time our market was getting ready to fail at the 14,000 area. i asked him, what will you tell your clients when the market tanks ? his answer: "i'll tell them to cost average down." ???
NT
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correct, most (not all) stock brokers are little more than well dressed salesmen 8) . their expertise usually doesn't extend into how markets operate.
with few exceptions, a brokers main job is to sell you equities. knowledge of when to enter or exit is beyond their pay grade.
i spoke with one broker around the time our market was getting ready to fail at the 14,000 area. i asked him, what will you tell your clients when the market tanks ? his answer: "i'll tell them to cost average down." ???
NT
So the Broker reads the daily news and can parrot to his clients that there are "signs of recovery" in the market?
When the market goes up, "BUY MORE"
When the market crashes "BUY MORE / DOLLAR COST AVERAGE"
Hence the Millions spent on brainwashing the general public to buy stocks and mutual funds.
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"i'll tell them to cost average down." ???
whoa crap, wonder how many people really did average down?
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whoa crap, wonder how many people really did average down?
the vast majority (through ignorance) cost average down.
NT
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the 600 point drop in the market last week should encourage a new round of cooked numbers this week.
U.S. Stocks Rise, Led by Commodities Producers as Oil Climbs
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a second day as a rebound in oil prices spurred a late-day rally in energy shares and industrial companies climbed on better-than-forecast durable goods orders.
guys, no surprise here. government reported durable goods UP 2.5% in April. ;)
NT
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Sales of Spam rise as consumers trim food costs. :-X
Associated Press
Wednesday May 28, 2008
MILWAUKEE — Love it, hate it or laugh at it — at least it's inexpensive.
Sales of Spam — that much maligned meat — are rising as consumers are turning more to lunch meats and other lower-cost foods to extend their already stretched food budgets.
Food prices are increasing faster than they've risen since 1990, at 4 percent in the U.S. last year, according to the Agriculture Department. Many staples are rising even faster, with white bread up 13 percent last year, bacon up 7 percent and peanut butter up 9 percent.
There's no sign of a slowdown. Food inflation is running at an annualized rate of 6.1 percent as of April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
when the consumer must stoop to this level, it sends a strong, clear message.
NT
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Inflation concerns rise as Dow Chemical signals 20% boost
May 29,2008 USA TODAY
Dow Chemical's announcement Wednesday that it would raise prices as much as 20% is just the most recent of a flurry of price hikes by major companies, affecting everything from tissues to coffee to paint.
The big concern: As energy and commodity prices soar, cost increases will seep into areas beyond food and energy, sparking a full-blown episode of inflation.
So far, government statistics say that hasn't happened. ::) Core prices — those minus food and energy — have risen just 2.3% the 12 months ended April, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. ::)
NT
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Inflation concerns rise as Dow Chemical signals 20% boost
May 29,2008 USA TODAY
Dow Chemical's announcement Wednesday that it would raise prices as much as 20% is just the most recent of a flurry of price hikes by major companies, affecting everything from tissues to coffee to paint.
The big concern: As energy and commodity prices soar, cost increases will seep into areas beyond food and energy, sparking a full-blown episode of inflation.
So far, government statistics say that hasn't happened. ::) Core prices — those minus food and energy — have risen just 2.3% the 12 months ended April, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. ::)
NT
up, up and away :)
-
btw, GDP and jobless claims will be released this morning.
the "numbers" should be interesting. ;)
NT
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btw, GDP and jobless claims will be released this morning.
the "numbers" should be interesting. ;)
NT
just released:
U.S. economic growth (GDP) in the first quarter is revised higher to 0.9% from a previous reading of 0.6%. ;)
NT
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Wall Street gains as investors welcome an improved first-quarter GDP reading.
May 29, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Thursday as investors cheered sliding oil prices, a rallying dollar and a report that showed first-quarter GDP growth was better than initially reported.
NT
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Wall Street gains as investors welcome an improved first-quarter GDP reading.
May 29, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Thursday as investors cheered sliding oil prices, a rallying dollar and a report that showed first-quarter GDP growth was better than initially reported.
let me explain how GDP "increased". as many of you know, when calculating for inflation, food and energy are EXCLUDED from the equation.
for calulating GDP, food and energy prices are INCLUDED to increase overall GDP numbers.
it's a can't lose system ! ;)
NT
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guys, today's business report.
U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending Gains Slowed in April
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. personal spending slowed in April after record fuel costs, a slump in home values and a deteriorating job market eroded consumer confidence.
Separate reports showed business activity dropped for a fourth month in May and consumer sentiment decreased to the lowest level since 1980.
NT
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guys, today's business report.
U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending Gains Slowed in April
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. personal spending slowed in April after record fuel costs, a slump in home values and a deteriorating job market eroded consumer confidence.
Separate reports showed business activity dropped for a fourth month in May and consumer sentiment decreased to the lowest level since 1980.
NT
Spending went down, but GDP went up?
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Spending went down, but GDP went up?
hahahahaha
:'(
-
let me explain how GDP "increased". as many of you know, when calculating for inflation, food and energy are EXCLUDED from the equation.
for calulating GDP, food and energy prices are INCLUDED to increase overall GDP numbers.
it's a can't lose system ! ;)
NT
Now that answers everything.... >:(
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guys, no surprise here.
Consumers Lean on Rebate Checks for Bills and Gas
New York Times
June 1, 2008
MIAMI — The federal government is showering households with tax rebates to spur spending and invigorate a troubled economy. But many Americans are so consumed with debt and the soaring price of gasoline that they are opting to save the money or use it to pay bills, according to surveys, sales data and interviews with people from Florida to California.
The Treasury handed out more than $50 billion of the $100 billion in tax rebates it plans to distribute to 132 million households. But only once in the last six weeks have chain stores registered an increase in sales.
NT
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NO NEW MONEY IS ENTERING THIS MARKET.
guys, be careful.
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NT,
When you started this thread, the Dow was at 12,987
The Dow is currently at 12,457 with the absolute lowest point being 11,740
Was this the Crash you were predicting?
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NT,
When you started this thread, the Dow was at 12,987
The Dow is currently at 12,457 with the absolute lowest point being 11,740
Was this the Crash you were predicting?
SS, your numbers are incorrect.
i started the thread at 13,167.00.....the Dow then rallied to nearly 13,800.00 by December. at Dow 13,800.00, i continued to say GET OUT if you wanted to save your money. (my old posts do not lie)
from Dow 13,800.00 it dropped to 11,700.00, a 2,100 point loss in the Dow at a time when everyone was happy with the economy! NO ONE was talking recession....but me. i spoke about the coming recession in Nov. when the world was giddy! many people on GB thought i was crazy talking recession last Nov. (not anymore) ;)
the market closed today at 12,500.00. down another 134.50 points. this past Oct. the Dow was at 14,198.00.......today it's 12,500.00. i still expect it to head lower......in the coming months. a slooooooow bleed.
keep in mind, without an aggressive PPT, this market would be sitting at Dow 9,800.00
SS, what's your point? ???
NT
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U.S. Stocks Drop, Led by Financials
June 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for the first time in five days after Wachovia Corp. ousted its chief executive officer and Standard & Poor's lowered its debt ratings on three of Wall Street's biggest securities firms.
The S&P 500 Index lost 14.71 points, or 1.1 percent, to 1,385.67. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 134.5, or 1.1 percent, to 12,503.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 31.13, or 1.2 percent, to 2,491.53. Three stocks dropped for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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SS, your numbers are incorrect.
i started the thread at 13,167.00.....the Dow then rallied to nearly 13,800.00 by December. at Dow 13,800.00, i continued to say GET OUT if you wanted to save your money. (my old posts do not lie)
The first post of this thread was on Nov 12th 2007. That is the date I used. If we go back to Nov 9th, the Dow was 13,042. The market closed today at 12,503.
I am comparing where you made the claim to where we are now and that is a difference of 500 points in the span of 7 months You are comparing the Highest DOW to the Lowest Dow that occurred during the time of this thread. I don't think that is a fair way to gauge your prediction.
I am just raising some talking points.
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The first post of this thread was on Nov 12th 2007. That is the date I used. If we go back to Nov 9th, the Dow was 13,042. The market closed today at 12,503.
I am comparing where you made the claim to where we are now and that is a difference of 500 points in the span of 7 months You are comparing the Highest DOW to the Lowest Dow that occurred during the time of this thread. I don't think that is a fair way to gauge your prediction.
I am just raising some talking points.
Whats interesting is that even the market guys are wondering WTH with the numbers?? Printing money , borrowing money and recirculating it will lead to the eventual collapse of the market numbers.
Im suprised its been propped up this long...bush will try to keep it high till he leaves, and it may drop like a rock so that realistic re-building can begin.
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SS, i suggest you start your own finanical thread, as i'd hate to confuse you.
NT
NT,
You predicted a DOW CRASH coming to the 401k. With a 500 point difference from where the market was when you made that post, to where it is now, I am just not seeing this crash in the stock market.
I think you are reading things that I did not write. I never insulted you.
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George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund manager, will warn later today that the oil price has become a bubble that could trigger a stock market crash.
The Financial Times reported today that Soros will tell the US Senate commerce committee that oil was pushed to its recent all-time peak of $135 a barrel by a new wave of speculators.
He believes that the doubling in the price over the last year is partly due to investment institutions, such as pension funds, who are pumping money into indexes that track the cost of crude.
According to the FT, Soros will warn that there could be very serious consequences for global stock markets if the institutions suddenly began betting on a fall in the oil price.
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George Soros, the billionaire hedge fund manager, will warn later today that the oil price has become a bubble that could trigger a stock market crash.
The Financial Times reported today that Soros will tell the US Senate commerce committee that oil was pushed to its recent all-time peak of $135 a barrel by a new wave of speculators.
He believes that the doubling in the price over the last year is partly due to investment institutions, such as pension funds, who are pumping money into indexes that track the cost of crude.
According to the FT, Soros will warn that there could be very serious consequences for global stock markets if the institutions suddenly began betting on a fall in the oil price.
I hope oil is a bubble. While the price in the US is not sustainable, the rest of the world is begging for as much as we can drill. Big oil thinks they are set and the US is a non-issue.... :-\
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Cue people to call Soros a lib and ignore everything he says.
Cue market to crash in a month and everyone blames "libs" when all the did was warn us about what the repubs in charge were doing.
LOL... stupid people.
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NT,
You predicted a DOW CRASH coming to the 401k. With a 500 point difference from where the market was when you made that post, to where it is now, I am just not seeing this crash in the stock market.
I think you are reading things that I did not write. I never insulted you.
I agree with you.
NT is know for failing at his predictions, he couldnt predict his homosexual's brother death either.fail
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NT,
You predicted a DOW CRASH coming to the 401k. With a 500 point difference from where the market was when you made that post, to where it is now, I am just not seeing this crash in the stock market.
I think you are reading things that I did not write. I never insulted you.
14,200 was the market HIGH....it now sits at 12,360.
NT
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14,200 was the market HIGH....it now sits at 12,360. spin your numbers as you like.
NT
I am dancing over your homo's bro grave hahahah
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Hank Paulson's tour of the Middle East has taken on an unseemly quality as the Treasury Secretary has been effectively reduced to begging for both cash and relief from high oil prices.
"We are urging all oil-producing countries to open oil markets to foreign investment, which would support faster and more efficient growth," Paulson said, the WSJ reports.
Of course, Paulson can't take a hard line with OPEC because America has no energy policy and because we need foreign dollars to fund our deficit and help bail out ailing financial institutions.
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NT. i didnt read into storms posts that he was trying to argue. Just wanted some clarification on the numbers. Those of us that have read every page see that you have explained this but some may need refreshing time to time.
The exact numbers dont matter because the dow is a false number anyway. Its just barely been realized that the PPT even exists to manipulate the market........This market will crash big time if oil is not regulated .......and its timed for when bush leaves.
We will continue to see homes lost, food prices rise, gas rise and job losses will be huge. All this will be while the govt posts numbers telling you how well your doing!!!
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NT. i didnt read into storms posts that he was trying to argue. Just wanted some clarification on the numbers. Those of us that have read every page see that you have explained this but some may need refreshing time to time.
The exact numbers dont matter because the dow is a false number anyway. Its just barely been realized that the PPT even exists to manipulate the market........This market will crash big time if oil is not regulated .......and its timed for when bush leaves.
We will continue to see homes lost, food prices rise, gas rise and job losses will be huge. All this will be while the govt posts numbers telling you how well your doing!!!
i didn't think he was arguing WH, but SS's numbers were incorrect. furthermore, he's missing the point of why i started the thread. if someone jumped into the market at 14,000+, i wanted them to know the longterm trend was about to turn on them. i also wanted them to know that a recession was likely coming. historically, stock markets decline in recessionary periods and produce bear markets. (which we are in) bear markets typically experience numerous short cover, or bear market rallies ( i speak about them often ) which slow down a markets decline. throw in the PPT and things slow down further.
remember, i started this thread when no one talked recession or inflation. the Dow had just broken an all time record high and the world was good !
my opinion at the time (Nov) differed from most, but turned out to be a fair assessment of our current situation.
looking ahead, my objective is to be out in front of the curve when the market eventually turns to the upside. great opportunities await. :D
NT
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i didn't think he was arguing WH, but SS's numbers were incorrect. furthermore, he's missing the point of why i started the thread. if someone jumped into the market at 14,000+, i wanted them to know the longterm trend was about to turn on them. i also wanted them to know that a recession was likely coming. historically, stock markets decline in recessionary periods and produce bear markets. (which we are in) bear markets typically experience numerous short cover, or bear market rallies ( i speak about them often ) which slow down a markets decline. throw in the PPT and things slow down further.
remember, i started this thread when no one talked recession or inflation. the Dow had just broken an all time record high and the world was good !
my opinion at the time (Nov) differed from most, but turned out to be a fair assessment of our current situation.
looking ahead, my objective is to be out in front of the curve when the market eventually turns to the upside. great opportunities await. :D
NT
If you read the quote I just posted, it looks to me like we have billions of domestic money that is looking for a home in overseas oil ??
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Stocks sustain losses
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Tuesday, as investors eyed reports that Lehman Brothers may need to raise more capital amid the credit market fallout and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's hints that the central bank will stop cutting interest rates.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost just over 100 points, or 0.8%. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 0.4%.
NT
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guys....
Bernanke Says Rise in Inflation a `Concern'
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said while rising public expectations for inflation are a ``significant concern,'' there's little sign of the pressures that drove price increases above 10 percent in the 1970s.
``Some indicators of longer-term inflation expectations have risen in recent months, which is a significant concern'' for the Fed, Bernanke said today in a speech during a Class Day ceremony at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Policy makers ``need to monitor that situation closely.''
Signs of increasing prices compelled Bernanke and other Fed policy makers to signal in April they'll pause after reducing the benchmark interest rate by 3.25 percentage points since September. The Fed is trying to sustain economic growth and minimize harm from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market without impairing its credibility on inflation.
Bernanke's remarks focused on the differences between the U.S. economy now and in the 1970s. The combination of a housing slump and slow growth along with surging food and energy costs has prompted economists to resurrect the term ``stagflation,'' first used in the 1960s to describe a mix of slow growth and rising prices
NT
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the PPT working hard to avoid retesting the 11,700 area. right now, semi's are the strongest sector. keep in mind, in order to sustain a rally, the semi's and financials must work together.
with the financials acting so weak, it's difficult to get much traction.
NT
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U.S. stock indexes break losing streak
Dow industrials climb more than 200 points after three-day decline
June 5, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday rallied higher following a three-day downward spiral, after weekly jobless claims dropped more than forecast ahead of Friday's employment report and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s same-store-sales results topped expectations.
guys, today was a textbook example of a bear market/short cover rally. the government stated jobless claims dropped forcing short players to run for cover.
net result : 213 point rally on light volume.
i expect the market to head lower.
NT
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daily news ....
U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures at Record
June 5 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans in danger of losing their homes to foreclosure rose to the highest in at least three decades during the first quarter as borrowers who fell behind on payments were unable to sell their homes.
Falling home prices have stalled U.S. real estate sales, making it difficult for people who can't pay their mortgages to sell the properties.
NT
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daily news....
Continental Airlines to cut flights, 3,000 jobs
June 5, 2008 USA TODAY
Continental Airlines said Thursday it is cutting 3,000 jobs and reducing capacity by 11%, a response to the record-high fuel prices that are triggering the industry's worst crisis since 9/11.
"The airline industry is in a crisis," wrote Larry Kellner, Continental's chairman and CEO, in a letter to employees. "Its business model doesn't work with the current price of fuel and the existing level of capacity in the marketplace."
NT
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daily news....
Americans $1.7 trillion poorer
Americans' net worth falls for the second straight quarter as home and stock prices decline.
June 5, 2008:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Americans saw their net worth decline by $1.7 trillion in the first quarter - as declines in home values and the stock market ravaged their holdings.
NT
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Ive said it many times here. "Capitialism is a pyramid scheme"
At some point the FEW AT THE TOP (Corporations) demand more than can be givin by those in the middle and bottom. The law of supply and demand would normally save us, but not this time.
This time the dollar is forced to collapse, the middle class is gone,and next is upper class. The elites will have their way with you. The constitution is being erased...so prepare.
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daily news....
Americans $1.7 trillion poorer
Americans' net worth falls for the second straight quarter as home and stock prices decline.
June 5, 2008:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Americans saw their net worth decline by $1.7 trillion in the first quarter - as declines in home values and the stock market ravaged their holdings.
NT
I have never made more money than I have in the last 3 years, losers will always find ways to blame others for their failures.
Winners will allow nothing to get in the way of their success.
This is the new party Loser Democrats of today who prey on the weak and poor for votes.
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I have never made more money than I have in the last 3 years, losers will always find ways to blame others for their failures.
Winners will allow nothing to get in the way of their success.
This is the new party Loser Democrats of today who prey on the weak and poor for votes.
Youre next.
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Youre next.
God...is that you? Why post as War Horse Lord?
LMAO...thanks Nostrodumb ous
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God...is that you? Why post as War Horse Lord?
LMAO...thanks Nostrodumb ous
Take a number, and get to the back of the line where you belong.
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Take a number, and get to the back of the line where you belong.
You think of that all by yourself? Well done!
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LMAO...thanks Nostrodumb ous
lol
I like that one
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lol
I like that one
Thanks...I try ;D
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U.S. stock indexes break losing streak
Dow industrials climb more than 200 points after three-day decline
June 5, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday rallied higher following a three-day downward spiral, after weekly jobless claims dropped more than forecast ahead of Friday's employment report and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s same-store-sales results topped expectations.
NT
ok guys, yesterday jobless claims DROPPED. today, payrolls FALL and jobless rate INCREASES from 5.0 to 5.5%.
right now, market corruption is at an ALL TIME HIGH.
please be careful !
NT
U.S. Payrolls Fell 49,000 in May, Jobless Rate Jumps to 5.5%
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost jobs in May for a fifth month and the unemployment rate rose by the most in more than two decades, signaling the world's largest economy is stalling.
Payrolls fell by 49,000, a smaller decline than forecast, after a 28,000 drop in April that was more than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate increased to 5.5 percent from 5 percent, the biggest jump since February 1986.
NT
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Dow is down 404, 12200 so far. Wow!
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OMG the world is going under.
;D
Fuccing whiners.
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market news....
U.S. Stocks Plunge as Unemployment Tops Forecast, Oil Surges
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled the most in four months after the biggest jump in the unemployment rate since 1986 and a $10-a-barrel rise in oil heightened concern that the economy will sink into a recession.
The S&P 500 Index plunged 43.37, or 3.1 percent, to 1,360.68 and lost 2.8 percent in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 394.64, or 3.1 percent, to 12,209.81, as American International Group Inc. slid 6.8 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index sank 75.38 to 2,474.56. Twelve stocks dropped for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
NT
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U.S. stock indexes break losing streak
Dow industrials climb more than 200 points after three-day decline
June 5, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday rallied higher following a three-day downward spiral, after weekly jobless claims dropped more than forecast ahead of Friday's employment report and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s same-store-sales results topped expectations.
guys, today was a textbook example of a bear market/short cover rally[/b]. the government stated jobless claims dropped forcing short players to run for cover.
net result : 213 point rally on light volume.
i expect the market to head lower.
NT
day later.........Dow down 400 points.
NT
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ok guys, yesterday jobless claims DROPPED. today, payrolls FALL and jobless rate INCREASES from 5.0 to 5.5%.
please be careful !
jobless claims drop at the identical time payrolls drop by 49,000. plus, the jobless rate increases from 5.0 to 5.5% ?
i'm confused, any mathematicians around ? ;D
NT
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jobless claims drop at the identical time payrolls drop by 49,000. plus, the jobless rate increases from 5.0 to 5.5% ?
i'm confused, any mathematicians around ? ;D
NT
Thats called bush math. Only BBum and joeloco understand it and thats not a compliment.
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I love America...never made more money than this year. The economy goes up and down, those of us that know a little something about how the economy works. Example:
Oct 27th, 1997 The Dow Falls 554.26 to close at 7,161.15, third largest dollar loss in history, down 7.18%. Trading of all securities is halted twice during the day, first interruption since the.March 30, 1981 assassination attempt on President Reagan.
Don't let one day determine your macro outlook of the economy, it just shows everyone you are fool.
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I love America...never made more money than this year. The economy goes up and down, those of us that know a little something about how the economy works. Example:
Oct 27th, 1997 The Dow Falls 554.26 to close at 7,161.15, third largest dollar loss in history, down 7.18%. Trading of all securities is halted twice during the day, first interruption since the.March 30, 1981 assassination attempt on President Reagan.
Don't let one day determine your macro outlook of the economy, it just shows everyone you are fool.
one day huh? ??? the Dow is down 2,000 points since November.
let me help you kid.... 14,200 (Nov high) minus 2,000 = 12,200 (yesterday's close)
talk about a fool.
NT
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. mark my words.
Nation's economic pain deepens :o
June 6, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A spike in the unemployment rate - the biggest in more than two decades - raised new concerns Friday that a weak labor outlook, high oil prices and continuing woes in the housing and credit markets are leading the U.S. economy into a painful recession.
NT
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I love America...never made more money than this year.
S you went from making 9,000a year to 10,000? Good for you.
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S you went from making 9,000a year to 10,000? Good for you.
Is he the guy cashing in on aluminum cans, balanced all over his bike..?
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one day huh? ??? the Dow is down 2,000 points since November.
let me help you kid.... 14,200 (Nov high) minus 2,000 = 12,200 (yesterday's close)
talk about a fool.
NT
I am in a battle of wits with an unarmed woman who knows nothing about the stock the market. I know calls, puts & selling short are above your intellect now. Thanks for proving my point.
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I am in a battle of wits with an unarmed woman who knows nothing about the stock the market. I know calls, puts & selling short are above your intellect now. Thanks for proving my point.
NT is a guy.
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I am in a battle of wits with an unarmed woman who knows nothing about the stock the market. I know calls, puts & selling short are above your intellect now. Thanks for proving my point.
Hello, jim cramer.... ::)
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NYTIMES June 8, 2008
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia — In his first major economic speech since becoming president, Dmitri A. Medvedev said Saturday that the world might be in the throes of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and that a newly revived Russia could offer solutions to a systemic crisis that has underscored America’s shortcomings.
“It turned out to be an illusion that one country, even the most powerful, could take upon itself the role of global government,” he said.
NT
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Hello, jim cramer.... ::)
ROFL...good one!
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NYTIMES June 8, 2008
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia — In his first major economic speech since becoming president, Dmitri A. Medvedev said Saturday that the world might be in the throes of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and that a newly revived Russia could offer solutions to a systemic crisis that has underscored America’s shortcomings.
“It turned out to be an illusion that one country, even the most powerful, could take upon itself the role of global government,” he said.
NT
Excellent source... the communist's from Russia...Who said your 401k has to be in stocks?
You need to educate yourself in the world of finance prior to posting rubbish. You do realize their are global mutual funds too right? Hear of Gold? Oil?
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Excellent source... the communist's from Russia...Who said your 401k has to be in stocks?
You need to educate yourself in the world of finance prior to posting rubbish. You do realize their are global mutual funds too right? Hear of Gold? Oil?
Ever learn the difference between there, their and they're? I guess you were too busy being smart to notice that one? ;D
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Ever learn the difference between there, their and they're? I guess you were too busy being smart to notice that one? ;D
Oh my! Although you lose points for pussing out with the smilie.
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Corn Jumps to Record on U.S. Midwest Rain, Crude Oil, Dollar
June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Corn jumped to a record as rain in the U.S. Midwest flooded fields, delaying planting and threatening to reduce crops. Soybeans, wheat and rice also gained as soaring oil costs and the dollar's drop boosted demand for an inflation hedge.
Corn prices have advanced 47 percent this year, gaining for a fourth straight year, as demand surged for feed and biofuels, reducing global inventories to a 24-year low. Wheat, soybeans and palm oil also reached records this year, and rice has risen 9.4 percent in the last three days, stoking concern that food shortages may worsen and spur inflation.
NT
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U.K. Producer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1986
June 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. producer prices increased at the quickest rate in two decades in May, increasing the odds the Bank of England will refrain from interest-rate cuts even as the economy edges toward a recession.
NT
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Ever learn the difference between there, their and they're? I guess you were too busy being smart to notice that one? ;D
I would actually have to read your posts for them to have any effect, fortunatly for me I ignore most of your nonsensical comments. :)
See how easy that is? Now remove your foot from your mouth son.
It is spelled fortunately
Sophomoric attempt at diversion from topic
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just so everybody understands......when i talk about exiting the market for safety, i only believe this makes sense for the average investor when a BIG DOWNTURN may occur. this thread is NOT about trading etc. this thread was started because my experience leads me to believe that a recession is on the horizon. with a recession comes a corresponding LARGE stock market correction. both recessionary and bubble (real estate) corrections many times take yrs to recover loses. (think dot-com bubble)
it makes no sense for the average guy to jump in and out of the market for the "normal ups and downs". if investors would AVOID the big corrections, their returns would increase significantly.
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70% of our nations GDP is consumer consumption. since our nation no longer manufactures, we are dependent on a STRONG consumer. a weak dollar INCREASES inflation which lessens Americans buying power. the weak greenback may increase exports but never enough to offset the weak u.s. consumer.
record u.s deficits, a weak dollar, negative consumer savings, high inflation, record gas/oil prices (in none peak season) coupled with Americans no longer able to use their homes as a.t.m. machines spells disaster for a service economy such as ours.
the perfect storm is brewing........
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See how easy that is? Now remove your foot from your mouth son.
It is spelled fortunately
Sophomoric attempt at diversion from topic
Epic search through my posts for redemption.
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US investment bank Lehman Brothers is raising $6bn to boost its finances after predicting a loss in the second quarter of 2008.
The firm expects a $2.8bn loss compared with $1.3bn profit a year earlier, due to the US sub-prime mortgage meltdown and the global credit crisis.
Just last week the bank denied it was facing funding problems.
It is the first loss for the Wall Street bank since being spun off from American Express in 1994.
The move comes after Lehman Brothers raised $4bn in April by selling shares to quell investor concerns that it needed more capital.
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financial's are the foundation of our market. not until our banking crisis ends, will this market trend higher.
NT
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Epic search through my posts for redemption.
Epic stupidity and diversion by you, I searched 1 posts before your epic diversion post. Check the date/time sweety!
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Epic stupidity and diversion by you, I searched 1 posts before your epic diversion post. Check the date/time sweety!
You searched 1 posts?
Here we go again.
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You searched 1 posts?
Here we go again.
Yes. Somehow one is Plural..... ;D
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Yes. Somehow one is Plural..... ;D
You searched 1 posts?
Here we go again.
Epic diversion, can't blame ya, seems to me that the cowardice left is rotting this place from the core, that will change in the next 12 months while I am here.
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You searched 1 posts?
Here we go again.
Jackass
They are pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear programme, rejecting claims it is solely for peaceful purposes.
Try "program" :-*
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Jackass
Try "program" :-*
What does someone else's article, hence, their spelling "mistake" have to do with me?
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Epic diversion, can't blame ya, seems to me that the cowardice left is rotting this place from the core, that will change in the next 12 months while I am here.
As long as you use the right words in your attempt at conquering the board.
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Oil imports increase US trade gap
The rising cost of importing foreign oil caused the US trade deficit to widen in April to $60.9bn, the biggest for 13 months.
Despite healthy export growth, the difference between US imports and exports jumped 7.8% in April.
Crude oil imports alone increased $4.3bn to $29.3bn over the month, reflecting higher prices for fuel on world markets.
The increase wiped out the gains from strong US exports, which grew 3.3%.
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BD, i couldn't agree more.
the weak greenback may increase exports but never enough to offset the weak u.s. consumer.
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Most U.S. Stocks Drop for 3rd Day, Led by Oil, Metals Producers
June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Most U.S. stocks declined for a third day, led by raw-materials and energy producers, as the prospect of higher interest rates drove down oil and metals and the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for fuel demand.
NT
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Corn prices have hit new highs after the US Department of Agriculture forecast that output would fall because of poor weather.
Corn hit a record price of $6.672 a bushel for July delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade after the government cut its forecasts for the 2008 yield by 3%.
Crops have been hard hit by wet weather and flooding in the US.
To exacerbate the problem, demand for corn for both food and fuel has been increasing worldwide.
Joe Victor, an analyst with Allendale said: "The biggest surprise is how aggressive the US Department of Agriculture was in dropping yield."
The government also reduced its forecast for corn supplies running to 31 August 2009 to its lowest in more than a decade, at 673 million bushels or three weeks' worth of supply.
As well as bad weather, growing demand for corn worldwide to feed animals and make biofuels has pushed up prices.
As oil prices rise, using corn in biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels becomes more attractive, and this has helped to raise the price of corn from about $4 a bushel a year ago to its current record levels
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Fed: Economy 'generally weak'
The Fed's Beige Book report reveals low economic activity and sky-high prices for food and energy.
June 11, 2008:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy remained "generally weak" heading into summer as rising costs for energy and food pounded consumers and forced some companies to push their own prices higher.
The Fed's new snapshot of business conditions, released Wednesday in Washington, underscored two big sore spots for the country: listless economic activity coupled with high energy and food prices. Those rising prices carry the risk of both spreading inflation and putting another drag on overall economic growth.
NT
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Dow tumbles 205 points on oil surge
Wall Street slumps as crude prices rally more than $5 a barrel, the dollar falls.
June 11, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tanked Wednesday afternoon as investors eyed a $5 spike in oil prices, more problems for the bank sector and a report showing continued economic weakness.
NT
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Dow tumbles 205 points on oil surge
Wall Street slumps as crude prices rally more than $5 a barrel, the dollar falls.
June 11, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tanked Wednesday afternoon as investors eyed a $5 spike in oil prices, more problems for the bank sector and a report showing continued economic weakness.
NT
Now this is what I like to see.. I hope that DOW goes to 8,000
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Now this is what I like to see.. I hope that DOW goes to 8,000
lol
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Dow 11,700 will be retested sooner, rather than later.
financial's continue to drag on the market along with soaring commodities.
IMO, buying this market would border on insanity.
NT
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You are so clueless...buying what?
There are many stocks that will do well this year, if you bothered to research instead of getting all your left wing information from Media Matters.
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guys.....
Credit crisis expands, hitting all kinds of consumer loans
WASHINGTON — The credit crisis triggered by bad home loans is spreading to other areas, forcing banks to tighten credit and probably extending the credit crisis that's dragging down the economy well into next year, and perhaps beyond.
NT
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guys, the best you can hope for in this current market is intermittent short cover rallies as we head lower, nothing more.
NT
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U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 25,000 to 384,000
June 12, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Initial jobless claims jumped by 25,000 in the week ending June 7, to 384,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Continuing unemployment claims posted a gain of 58,000, pushing the number up to 3.14 million for the week ending May 31.
NT
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U.S. Retail Sales Increase Twice as Much as Forecast
By Bob Willis
June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. rose twice as much as forecast in May as Americans used their tax rebates to shop at electronics and department stores, and record gasoline prices swelled service-station receipts.
guys, keep in mind gasoline sales are mixed in with retail sales.
NT
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guys, keep in mind gasoline sales are mixed in with retail sales.
NT
Are you kidding me? This Bullshit never stops.
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Housing pain spreads: Foreclosures jump nearly 50%
June 13, 2008
WASHINGTON — The number of U.S. homeowners swept up in the housing crisis rose further last month, with foreclosures up nearly 50% compared with a year earlier, a foreclosure listing company said Friday.
NT
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guys, today Consumer Sentiment and CPI (inflation) numbers will be released. if unfavorable, testing the Jan and March lows would be anticipated IMO.
the $64,000 question is: how cooked will the CPI number be ?
NT
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month over month CPI up from .5 to .6
CPI minus food and energy unchanged at .2 ::)
NT
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US inflation rose at its fastest pace for six months in May because of sharply higher energy costs.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% last month, government figures showed, the steepest monthly increase since last November.
Gasoline costs surged by 5.7% last month, driven by the soaring global cost of oil which recently hit more than $139 a barrel.
Rising inflation is a worry for the Federal Reserve, which has cut rates aggressively to stimulate growth.
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U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.6% as Fuel Costs Climb
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer prices rose more than forecast in May as Americans paid more for fuel, underscoring the Federal Reserve's concern that inflation will pick up.
The consumer price index increased 0.6 percent, the most since November, after a 0.2 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. So-called core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, matching the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
NT
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month over month CPI up from .5 to .6
CPI minus food and energy unchanged at .2 ::)
NT
the government reported "tame" core inflation today. shorts covered, Dow up 165.00 points.
NT
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June 13, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- Stocks rallied on Friday, but posted mixed weekly performance, as fears over inflation were somewhat abated by a rising dollar, a drop in crude-oil prices, and a report showing May consumer prices were in line, excluding food and energy
NT
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U.S. Stocks Fall on Economic, Energy Concerns.
June 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, adding to two straight weeks of losses for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, after the Federal Reserve reported a bigger-than-forecast drop in New York manufacturing and oil jumped to a record.
NT
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Lehman Brothers posts $2.8bn loss
US investment bank Lehman Brothers has posted a quarterly loss of $2.8bn (£1.4bn), the first for the Wall Street bank since it went public in 1994.
America's fourth largest investment bank blamed the loss on a series of trades and hedges that went wrong.
The bank last week announced it needed $6bn in fresh capital to shore up its finances and demoted two senior directors to lift investor confidence.
Lehman Brother shares have fallen 60% this year.
Chief executive Richard Fuld said the firm was taking steps to ensure this quarter's "unacceptable performance" was not repeated.
Lehman said it had cut its exposure to residential and commercial mortgages and other property-related investments by 20%.
Like the rest of the sector, Lehman shares have been hit by the subprime mortgage meltdown and the global credit crunch.
Last week, the bank warned that it would report a quarterly loss - driving its shares down more than 20%.
The news triggered a crisis of confidence in the company's management, and forced the demotion of Chief Financial Officer Erin Callan and Chief Operating Officer Joseph Gregory.
However, traders took comfort from comments from Lehman bosses on Monday that the worst may be over for the investment bank, sending shares up 7%.
Global banks and brokerages have written down nearly $300bn worth of assets because of exposure to America's subprime mortgage market.
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guys, this market has serious problems. too much game playing and manipulation by the PPT.
until we capitulate, i'd be very careful.
NT
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guys, this market has serious problems. too much game playing and manipulation by the PPT.
until we capitulate, i'd be very careful.
NT
Sure "neurowallstreetplayer" ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)
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Hahahaahha ok "Neurotoxin" aka "Walt Street" player...
oil will be down to 70 by christmas time
.
June 16, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As the dollar weakened, oil prices spiked more than $5 a barrel on Monday to a trading record of $139.89
NT
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Economy forces major shift in spending
Consumers stay home and opt for frozen foods, Spam and crafts
June 15, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- Wondering how consumers are coping in such a troubled economy? Look at what's selling instead of which sales are tanking.
As consumers muddle through all that is plaguing the U.S. economy, they have battened down the hatches and sharply shifted their spending habits, turning to money-saving options that run the gamut from transportation to health as they find ways to pay for dramatic increases in gasoline and food.
"Suddenly consumers are focused on buying what they have to have as opposed to buying what they want to have,"
"This is a permanent change for Americans, who will face a declining standard of living over the next 20 years,"
NT
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By LOUISE STORY
Published: June 16, 2008
Only a year ago, Wall Street reveled in an era of superlatives: record deals, record profit, record pay. But a mere 12 months later, nearly half of the profits that major banks reaped during that age of riches have vanished.
The numbers are staggering. Between early 2004 and mid-2007, a period of unprecedented wealth on Wall Street, seven of the nation’s largest financial companies earned a combined $254 billion in profits.
But since last July, those same banks — Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — have written down the value of the assets they hold by $107.2 billion, gutting their earnings and share prices. Worldwide, the reckoning totals $380 billion, much of which reflects a plunge in the value of tricky mortgage investments.
More downbeat news is expected this week, when several big banks, including the ailing Lehman Brothers, are scheduled to report results for the latest quarter. As the tally of losses keeps growing, many bank executives — and their shareholders — keep asking the same question: When will the pain end?
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U.S. Producer Prices Rise 1.4% in May; Core Rate Increases 0.2%
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Prices paid to U.S. producers rose more than forecast in May as higher fuel and food costs heightened the threat of inflation.
The 1.4 percent jump was the biggest gain since November and followed a 0.2 percent increase in April, the Labor Department said today in Washington.
Companies are paying more for energy and raw materials, which erodes profits and makes it more likely they'll be forced to raise prices
NT
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U.S. Housing Starts Drop to Lowest Level in 17 Years
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Builders in the U.S. broke ground in May on the fewest houses in 17 years, signaling declines in construction still represent the biggest risk to the economy.
Housing starts fell 3.3 percent to a 975,000 pace from a revised 1.008 million in April, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The reading was below economists' forecasts and the lowest since March 1991. Building permits, a sign of future construction, fell 1.3 percent to a 969,000 rate.
Rising foreclosures, higher mortgage rates and declining property values threaten to keep home sales depressed in coming months, discouraging builders from starting new projects.
NT
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Goldman Drops Less-Than-Estimated 11% on Debt Losses
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, said second-quarter profit fell a less-than-estimated 11 percent as gains in commodities, prime brokerage and asset management offset fixed-income losses.
guys, Goldman Sachs is the "key player" in the PPT. (IMO)
always watch GS. ;)
NT
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U.S. Stock Futures Gain as Goldman Sachs Profit Tops Estimates
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures rose after earnings at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. topped analysts' estimates, overshadowing a bigger-than-forecast drop in housing starts.
NT
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"This is a permanent change for Americans, who will face a declining standard of living over the next 20 years,"
Who the fuck makes up this shit? They must have one serious crystal ball to see what Americans standard of living will be in 20 years. An unbelievable piece of sensational journalism.
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if you take the time to do a little research, amazingly you'll find that over the last 20 years the standard of living for middle class americans has GONE DOWN.
sensational journalism ? i think not.
NT
They are talking about the future, for all Americans. How the fuck can anyone with any knowledge of economics or history make a prediction like that? Sensational journalism at its best.
But point me in the direction of some academic papers showing me this decline in the standards of living over the past 20 years, I'm not American but would be interested in reading the research.
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U.S. Stocks Fall on FedEx's Loss, Fifth Third's Dividend Cut
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a three-month low, as FedEx Corp.'s results and Fifth Third Bancorp's dividend cut reinforced concern bank losses and record oil will prolong the slump in profits.
NT
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The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.
A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.
RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.
"Globalisation was always going to risk putting G7 bankers into a dangerous corner at some point. We have got to that point," he said.
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Dow down 2,200 points since hitting 14,200.00 in late 2007.
IMO, we continue to head lower.
NT
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guys, the best you can hope for in this current market is intermittent short cover rallies as we head lower, nothing more.
NT
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guys, believing ANY government economic data is silly at this point. too predictable.
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 5,000 to 381,000
June 19, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Weekly U.S. initial jobless claims dropped by 5,000 to 381,000 in the week ending June 14, a two-week low, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Continuing jobless claims fell to 3.06 million, the lowest since April.
NT
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Stocks decline sharply as oil rises, financials hit.
Major indexes all down at least 1%, weekly declines in the picture.
June 20, 2008 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Friday thudded sharply lower, with the Dow steering toward its first close below 12,000 in three months, as investors encountered another day of escalating oil prices and more trouble in the financial sector.
NT ;)
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guys, this market has serious problems. too much game playing and manipulation by the PPT.
until we capitulate, i'd be very careful.
NT
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Stocks set for weekly losses as oil up, financials hit
Major indexes all down around 2%, Dow down 400-plus points on the week
June 20, 2008 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Friday thudded sharply lower, with the Dow steering toward its first close below 12,000 in three months, as investors encountered another day of escalating oil prices and more trouble in the financial sector. Dow closed at 11,842.00.
NT
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Will the Schiff hit the fan? ;D
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guys, this market has serious problems. too much game playing and manipulation by the PPT.
until we capitulate, i'd be very careful.
NT
guys, as you know, my opinion has NOT changed once since Nov 2007.
i will keep you informed when (IMO) the turnaround begins.......now is still NOT that time.
please be patient.
NT
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after the holiday, there's NOTHING "looking forward" to propel the market past the 14k level and higher, so ALL bets are off the table. infact, many of us expect a recession to rear it's ugly head in "08" w/ a corresponding market breakdown.
looking back.
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i'm thinking a deep recession lasting into 09. the housing and banking crisis is the worst since the 1929 depression.
i believe we're currently in the beginning stages of a recession, which IMO will kick into the market AFTER the holiday.
looking back
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most small investors get sucked in at the top of markets by the hype on CNBC and the Cramers of the world.
recently when the Dow hit 14,000, CNBC's crew had party hats on ! how many small investors bought into that euphoria ? answer: more than you'll ever know.
small investors are like cattle.....they got caught in 2000, and will AGAIN in 2008.
looking back
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guys, think about this, the Dow in 2001 was at 12,000.00. 7 1/2 yrs later, it sits at 11,820.00. the Nasdaq was at 5,000 in 2000, it now sits at 2,406, in 2008. (8 1/2 yrs later.)
with inflation taken into account, anyone who bought and held stocks, LOST bigtime.
the key to making money (average investor) in todays market is AVOIDING big downturns and knowing when to re-enter safely. (stock brokers are clueless IMO)
years ago, you could buy and hold stocks forever and make great returns. those days are long gone. hedge funds, big brokerage firms and the like, have altered market dynamic's forever.
NT
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Wall Street balks as Fed's tightrope gets thinner
AP
2008-06-22
NEW YORK (AP) - After the Federal Reserve's meeting this week, the Fed policymakers are expected to voice a tough stance on inflation. Talk about poor timing.
Though Wall Street's inflation concerns have not abated - crude oil remains above $134 a barrel - worries about the health of the U.S. financial system and broader economy have returned in force.
"I don't know that there's anything they can say in their policy statement that would cause the market to breathe a sigh of relief, or cause a big updraft in the market," said Richard Sparks, a senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "The best they could do is remain neutral. ... But I agree with most people that they're more likely to emphasize price pressures rather than the potentially weakening economy."
Many don't expect a rate hike until the fall, or until early next year. But nearly all believe, after speeches by Fed officials over the past few weeks, that policymakers are finished with lowering rates due to the plunging dollar and soaring energy costs.
"There's no question the Fed is walking on a tightrope here. They're in a box," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at New York-based brokerage house Avalon Partners Inc. He pointed to the sluggish economy, the threat of rising inflation, and flooding in the Midwest that is destroying crops.
"If they were to raise (rates), that could put further weakness in economic activity. But by the same token, by raising, that could help stabilize the dollar and help reverse inflation," Cardillo said.
guys, the Fed's in big trouble due to STAGFLATION. (economic weakness combined with soaring inflation.)
lowering interest rates will only add more fuel to inflation. conversely, raising rates would further slow our dormant economy.
in other words.....the Fed is fvcked. no wiggle room left to manipulate rates lower to appease wall street.
raising rates is the only solution, and wall street HATES interest rate hikes.
NT
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Most U.S. Stocks Retreat, Led by Financials on Credit Concern
June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Most U.S. stocks retreated, sending financial shares to their lowest level in five years, on a deteriorating outlook for bank earnings. Rising oil prices pushed crude producers higher, leaving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average little changed.
Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. helped lead the drop after Bank of America Corp. cut income estimates for brokerages and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised selling bank shares as credit losses linger into 2009. Oil's second day of gains pushed down Home Depot Inc., General Motors Corp. and United Airlines parent UAL Corp., while sending energy shares to their first advance in four days. American International Group Inc., the largest insurer, tumbled to the lowest since 1997 on Barron's recommendation to sell the shares.
Almost two stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 rose 0.07 point to 1,318. The Dow decreased 0.33, or less than 0.1 percent, to 11,842.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 20.35, or 0.9 percent, to 2,385.74.
NT
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In a grim report on the weakened state of the housing industry, Harvard University says the United States is caught in a real estate market downturn “that is shaping up to be the worst in a generation.”
The decline in housing construction and home sales “already rivals the worst downturns in the post World War II era,” said the report out today from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies. Price drops and mortgage failures “are the worst on records that date back to the 1960s and 1970s.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080623-9999-1b23harvard.html
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Increasing struggles by consumers and businesses to make payments on a variety of loans, not just mortgages, are setting off a new wave of trouble in the financial sector that is battering even institutions that had steered clear of the subprime-home-loan debacle.
Late payments on home-equity loans are at a record high, according to fresh data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The delinquency rates on loans for cars, small businesses and construction are spiking to levels not seen in a decade or more.
Unlike last year, when soaring mortgage defaults sparked a crisis of confidence in the financial system, the root of these problems is the downturn in the broader economy. Simply put, consumers and businesses are strapped for cash with job losses growing and retail sales falling, economists said.
"We are not finished with the mortgage problem, but you are starting to see increased delinquencies in other forms of consumer debt," said Paul Kasriel, an economist at Northern Trust Securities. "We are in the eye of the hurricane. We had the first wave of the credit crisis, and it was quite damaging. But there's another wave coming, and it's likely to be as destructive."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/21/AR2008062101566.html
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TIJUANA, Mexico (CNN) -- More Americans, tired of skyrocketing gas prices, are crossing the border to Mexico, where fueling up costs a great deal less.
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Bernanke Plays `Dangerous Game' Balancing Rate Talk With Action
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, by voicing concern about inflation and the slumping dollar, has fanned investor expectations for an interest-rate increase as soon as August. He may regret it.
Raising rates may exacerbate the economic slowdown and roil banks whose losses sent their stocks down the most in a decade this month. Forgoing a rate boost next quarter risks damaging the Fed's credibility and deepening its divisions. Already this year, three officials have dissented on rate decisions.
While Bernanke's warning that the Fed will ``strongly resist'' a jump in inflation expectations led traders to bet on a rate increase, economists are more skeptical. All 101 in a Bloomberg News survey said the Federal Open Market Committee will keep the benchmark rate unchanged tomorrow and most analysts this month predicted officials will stand pat until 2009.
``That's the dangerous game,'' said Scott Anderson, senior economist in Minneapolis at Wells Fargo & Co., the fourth- largest U.S. bank by market value. ``Instead of putting the shot across the bow on inflation,'' Bernanke might have ``held off a few more months to let the credit crisis heal a little bit more.''
The Fed chief shifted stance after soaring costs of energy and imported goods threatened to stoke consumer price expectations. Gasoline climbed 37 percent in the past year, according to AAA. Import prices excluding petroleum rose the most since 1988 in the 12 months to May, government figures show.
NT
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June 24, 2008
Oil climbs on currency, supply concerns
Crude prices rise as the dollar weakens and political instability threatens to disrupt supply.
guys, as i've stated on numerous occasions, current fuel prices are directly related to our weaked dollar (deficit spending/bush's war) and supply concerns.( bush's war)
NT
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OPEC head blames oil price spike on U.S. as prices rise
June 24, 2008 (AP) — OPEC President Chakib Khelil insisted Tuesday that oil producers see no need to raise supply, blaming high prices on factors outside their control such as U.S. pressure on Iran and the weak U.S. dollar
NT
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NT - Do you forsee any change in the weak dollar anytime soon?
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NT - Do you forsee any change in the weak dollar anytime soon?
not as long as the current account defcit doesnt improve.
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NT - Do you forsee any change in the weak dollar anytime soon?
once the Fed begins increasing interest rates, the dollar should strengthen some. but as sarcastic pointed out, until deficit spending is back under control, the dollars likely to remain weak.
NT
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Thanks Sarcastic and NT....
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Greenspan says U.S. economy on brink of recession
24 June 2008
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Tuesday the U.S. economy was “on the brink” of a recession.
He said via video link to an investment conference in Johannesburg the chances of that economy falling into recession were more than 50 percent and a rebound was unlikely.
Asked if the U.S. economy was in recession, Greenspan said: “We are on the brink”. “A rebound at this stage is not something I think is in the immediate outlook,” he added.
guys, looks like greenspan's late to the party
NT
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Faster Inflation May Unleash `Financial Tsunami'.
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Rising consumer prices will leave more U.S. consumers unable to pay their debts and may lead to a ``financial tsunami,'' according to Bennet Sedacca, president of money manager Atlantic Advisors.
``Whether it is anecdotal or statistical evidence, I see inflation everywhere, and this is where the financial tsunami cometh,'' Sedacca wrote in a report published yesterday. ``A battered, over-indebted consumer, if forced to retrench, could create even more problems for the banking system as loan delinquencies would begin to rise even further. All sorts of delinquencies are rising. This is now a systemic issue.''
Sedacca wrote that current financial-market conditions remind him of ``someone standing on a lonely beach, armed with only a small bucket, trying to stop a rare tsunami that hits the shores. It is how I feel about our markets and the tools being utilized by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other regulatory bodies. They are overmatched for what they are facing and, worse yet, they helped create the mess in the first place by being far too easy with money and debt creation.''
NT
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June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by the most on record, signaling the housing recession is far from over, a private survey showed today.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.3 percent from a year earlier, after a 14.3 percent decline in March. The group began keeping year-over-year records in 2001. A separate report showed consumer confidence slumped this month to the lowest level in 16 years.
Mortgage defaults and foreclosures are adding to the glut of properties on the market, while stricter loan rules are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to get financing. The prolonged real-estate slump, along with higher fuel prices and a shrinking job market, is taking a toll on consumers and the economy.
NT
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Gas could fall to $2 if Congress acts, analysts say
Limiting speculation would push prices to fundamental level, lawmakers told
June 23, 2008 MarketWatch-- The price of retail gasoline could fall by half, to around $2 a gallon, within 30 days of passage of a law to limit speculation in energy-futures markets, four energy analysts told Congress on Monday.
Testifying to the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management said that the price of oil would quickly drop closer to its marginal cost of around $65 to $75 a barrel, about half the current $135.
NT
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... because it's a bodybuilding board you faggotery generator. So can I predict that the earth rotates will make me dead RIGHT every 24hr. ::)
Everything you posted today can be found on:
http://money.cnn.com/
http://finance.yahoo.com/
amongst others... thanks for pointing out the obvious. ::)
and we can go to the forum discussions for mentally handicapped people if we want to read posts by retards, but you save us the trouble by posting here.
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Flat demand for durable goods in May
June 25, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- Demand for U.S.-made durable goods was unchanged in May, as higher orders for airplanes and defense goods offset weaker sales of machinery and metals, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
Excluding the 2.6% rise in transportation orders, orders for durable goods fell 0.9%. Excluding the 10.9% rise in defense orders, total orders fell.
guys, today's durable goods numbers were horrible. headline numbers say orders were flat, but without military/defense orders, durable goods FELL 0.9 %
NT
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Dow drubbing: Sinks to 21-month low
June 26, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Thursday morning, with the Dow industrials hitting its lowest level in 21 months, after Goldman Sachs downgraded two key Dow components and two tech leaders disappointed investors.
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Dow sinks 358 points as oil surges to record
The blue-chip index tumbled more than 300 points as crude hits intraday record high of $140 a barrel.
June 26, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow plummeted 358 points Thursday afternoon as selling accelerated following a record surge in oil prices. The Dow Jones industrial average, which shed more than 300 points and dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years.
NT
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June 26, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks fell sharply Thursday with the blue-chip index enduring its worst June so far since 1930, and plunging to its lowest finish since Sept. 11, 2006, after getting slammed hard as crude soared to new highs.
Dow tumbled 358.41 points, or 3%, to 11,453.42, leaving it down nearly 1,200 points, or 9.4%, for the month, with two trading days yet to go. As things stand, the month is the worst June so far since 1930
NT
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So this means things are getting better?
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looking back.......
the main message to fellow getbiggers is:when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad. this ultimately will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
imo, the above mentioned will hit the stock market HARD in the coming months and the little guy stuck in a 401k will get slaughtered on the way down.(as usual) conversely, professionals on wall street make money if markets go up.......or down.
i've been in this industry for many years and have NEVER seen a situation quite like the one developing.............i just hope people listen.
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Hyperinflation? ::)
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Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles
27/06/2008
US central bank accused of unleashing an inflation shock that will rock financial markets, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".
"We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."
NT
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preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
the perfect storm is brewing........
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In economics, hyperinflation is inflation that is "out of control," a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value.
Look it up and learn.
NT
I have a Masters degree in Economics. I know what hyperinflation is. The inflation rate in the USA is nowhere near being what can be described as hyperinflation. If the US had hyperinflation in November 2007 something that cost a dollar would now being cost $25, $50 or $100. It doesn't.
You should do some reading yourself on what "economists" actually consider to be hyperinflation.
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U.S. Stocks Slump, Pushing Dow Average to Brink of Bear Market
June 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the brink of a bear market, on concern subprime-related writedowns at banks will worsen and record oil and a slowing economy will prolong the worst profit decline since 2002.
NT
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as do I. :-*
Sax here's some advise. start your own thread and offer useful market insight to gber's. this way, you'll quit being a petty, fvcking wiseass in this thread.
have a great day! :D
NT
Did you find that degree in a cereal packet? You quoted straight from Wikipedia as to what hyperinflation was ::) That give me such a laugh! Your google fu is strong! Most working definitions of hyperinflation consider a country to be in hyperinflation when it's annual inflation rate is around 1,000 % a year! That is actually from an economics textbook. The US annual inflation rate is probably around 8-14 depending on how it is calculated. You sure know your economics ::)
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guys....as expected we head lower.
Dow industrials, off over 20% from October highs
June 27, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- Stocks continued to fall Friday, unable to bounce back a day after the market plunged on renewed concerns about financials, credit conditions and oil topping $140 for the first time.
With crude hitting a new high at $142.26 a barrel earlier on, the market remained worried about the impact of surging commodities prices on consumers.
A survey by the University of Michigan revealed consumer confidence slid further in June. "With oil prices bursting through the $140 threshold and seemingly unstoppable, economists are busily debating whether it's all going to end in fire (inflation) or ice (deep recession)," said Doug Porter, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
NT
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Did you find that degree in a cereal packet? You quoted straight from Wikipedia as to what hyperinflation was ::) That give me such a laugh! Your google fu is strong! Most working definitions of hyperinflation consider a country to be in hyperinflation when it's annual inflation rate is around 1,000 % a year! That is actually from an economics textbook. The US annual inflation rate is probably around 8-14 depending on how it is calculated. You sure know your economics ::)
Another passenger on the titanic arguing over the thread count in the bedsheets...
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So much for that second-half rebound.
Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal.
It ain't gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter.
This thing's going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We're caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of.
Only this will be a different kind of recession -- a recession with an overlay of inflation. That combo puts the Federal Reserve in a Catch-22 -- whatever it does to solve one problem only makes the other worse. Emerging from a two-day meeting this week, Fed officials signaled that further recession-fighting rate cuts are unlikely and that their next move will be to raise rates to contain inflationary expectations.
Since last June, we've seen a fairly consistent pattern to the economic mood swings. Every three months or so, there's a round of bad news about housing, followed by warnings of more bank write-offs and then a string of disappointing corporate earnings reports. Eventually, things stabilize and there are hints that the worst may be behind us. Stocks regain some of their lost ground, bonds fall and then -- bam -- the whole cycle starts again.
It was only in November that the Dow had recovered from the panicked summer sell-off and hit a record, just above 14,000. By March, it had fallen below 12,000. By May, it climbed above 13,000. Now it's heading for a new floor at 11,000. Officially, that's bear market territory. We'll be lucky if that's the floor.
Full article here,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062604030.html
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HAhahahah the fraudulent Neurobitch getting exposed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The bitch does love to cut and past endless shit that we've read 24-48hrs ago.
Do you always act this way? Why can't you offer an intelligent debate, with mature responses if you don't agree with anything that's been posted here? Or is it that you do agree with the information, it's just that you don't like the fact that he brings it to the political board? It seems like you post in this thread for no other reason than to cause conflict, is that your goal?
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Neurotoxin knows what he's talking about. Under control for most but more should've listen. Including me.
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I wanna debate something intelligent , I'll "debate" with Saxon & others.
If want market related news, I won't go ona muscle board.
Hope this reality shocks.
Interesting.
So, you don't want Neuro to post political related items on a political board but you have no problems debating individuals about political related issues on the same board? Could you explain how it's possible to have a debate with people that agree with you?
Why would you hope that your post "shocks" me? If anything it has left me kinda confused. Perhaps that was your orginal intent but you just didnt word your post correctly?
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Stock, Bond Slumps Signal Worse Than '94 on Inflation
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- It's been 14 years since investors suffered as big a retreat in stocks and bonds and some of the largest money managers say the losses may have more in common with the 1974 bear market before the worst is over.
``Between inflation and the liquidity crisis, this is one of the toughest markets I've seen,'' said Dreman, who oversees about $15 billion.
anyone who's followed this thread since Nov. shouldn't be surprised. the economic numbers that have crossed my desk over the months have indicated exactly where we're headed.
NT
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June 30, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks struggled Monday at the end of worst June for the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials since the Great Depression, amid rocketing oil prices and ongoing financial market woes.
NT
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They said the other day on the news, reported as news, not opinion that the market has lost 9.4% of it's value. The worst June since the great depression.
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total crickets from righties. I had really hoped some would come in and address this month's finacial news. :-\ figures.
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Of all the chickshit crap... Not one comment from the rightwingers and neocons. I guess we're just to far along to blame Clinton and they're clueless without their "Clinton did it" to toss.
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Check this video out at around 2:26. Any opinions?
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1,260 is major support in the S+P, expect a short cover rally soon.
before a holiday, traders like to square their positions and take profits.
NT
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paulson knew our economy was in trouble many months ago. this douche has lied to the public repeatedly. (all to help WS) it's about time he's had to admit the now obvious. the US economy is in deep shit.
Paulson says US economy enduring 'rough period'
July 2, 2008
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday that the US economy was enduring "a rough period" and warned that home foreclosures would likely remain high in the near future.
The US Treasury chief said soaring crude oil prices, a widespread credit crunch and a two-year long housing market slump had taken some of the wind out of the sails of the US economy.
"The US economy is going through a rough period. US foreclosures will remain elevated and we should not be surprised at continued reports of falling home prices," Paulson warned during a speech in London.
Foreclosures have soared in recent months as home sales and property prices have continued to tumble across many parts of the United States.
The world's biggest economy posted subpar growth of 1.0 percent during the first quarter of the year, and some analysts believe the economy is on the brink of a recession.
"High oil prices will in all likelihood prolong our economic slowdown," he said, as oil prices continued to roil near record highs at 141 dollars a barrel.
NT
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They said things were fine and dandy a few months ago.
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what a piece of shit that investopedia is... >:( I'm trying to learn this stuff and I am going off of the book I read which recomends against diversifying and instead picking one good stock. Well I've been going along real great so far and I do what I've learned and Investopeida tell me I can't, I'm full of shit and nobody would do that so it breaks their rules. They won't let me play my Fake 100,000... assholes... How the hell are you supposed to use it as a learning tool when they won't let you experiment freely for yourself. What bullshit, not recommended. I just wasted 7 months >:( cocksuckers.
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Henry Paulson is a new world order/Bilderberger NEOCON Jewish Lobby stooge. The U.S. along with most of the industrialized west is already in a recession. My god. I'm so sick of our paternalistic government propaganda. Just wait till tomorrow whent he jobs reports come out. There are several more million people who will be declaring foreclosure in the next year. Things are going to get a lot worse before they get any better.
Just like the stupid media on Iran. Fox News comes out with an article hyping up the fact that the U.S. Navy made some comment about never letting Iran close the strait of Hormuz. The same day (yesterday) another CNN or other major media outlet posted an article saying how the talks are working and the nuclear manager of Iran's energy department or whatever is willing to talk with the 6 countries now. It's all bullshit.
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I find that mostly the uneducated can't make money in today's market. The others don't have a qualified formula to calculate risk or the guts to take a chance.
"Pity me, George Bush got me fired/laid off"
"Pity me, I need to blame others for my misfortune"
"Pity me, I am too good to work at McDonald's"
"Pity me, I can't take responsibility for the predicament I am in"
Shut up and quit making excuses!
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I find that mostly the uneducated can't make money in today's market. The others don't have a qualified formula to calculate risk or the guts to take a chance.
"Pity me, George Bush got me fired/laid off"
"Pity me, I need to blame others for my misfortune"
"Pity me, I am too good to work at McDonald's"
"Pity me, I can't take responsibility for the predicament I am in"
Shut up and quit making excuses!
What are your suggestions to making money in todays market?
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Pay me. I am a capitalist!
Put your 401K in some secure bonds if you have no risk tolerance or close to retirement. Invest in foreign stocks that are proven. You get the appreciation value along with the currency risk (favor the Euro).
Many many opportunities in real estate for the investor (not the gambler). Now (and in a few months) is the time to buy, not when real estate is booming and properties are skyrocketing.
Same thing with US Stocks...buy (quality) low....sell High.
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What are your suggestions to making money in todays market?
BD, in the coming months, a fortune will be made buying financials/banks.
for anyone (except alex23) interested in entering that sector long, PM me and i'll try to provide you an early "heads up" as to when the big firms begin to buy. (IMO)
a once in a lifetime opportunity awaits. 8)
NT
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BD, in the coming months, a fortune will be made buying financials/banks.
for anyone (except alex23) interested in entering that sector long, PM me and i'll try to provide you an early "heads up" as to when the big firms begin to buy. (IMO)
a once in a lifetime opportunity awaits. 8)
NT
I am sorry, that little insert amused me NT ;D
Btw, I appreciate the time you put into this thread. Don't post much in it, but have read it all so just wanted to say thanks.
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Pay me. I am a capitalist!
Thats the same thing I tell the people who want me to do my taxes! haha
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Btw, I appreciate the time you put into this thread. Don't post much in it, but have read it all so just wanted to say thanks.
you're very welcome CQ. :D
NT
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with 1,260 as major support in the S+P, expect a short cover rally soon.
before a holiday, traders like to square their positions and take profits.
July 3, 2008NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday ended mostly higher in offering a benign reaction to the government's report on employment, which declined only a bit more than expected in June, offsetting worries that the ailing economy is getting worse.
no surprise today. a low volume day with some short covering before the 3 day holiday. next week will determine if we break 1,260 (S&P) to the downside, or a short cover rally with some help from the PPT.
right now the market is temporarily oversold, so generating market upside is much
easier for the Plunger Team.
also, earnings season begins next week, so the "beat the street by a penny" line should be out in full force.
NT
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market news...
U.S. economy lost 62,000 jobs in June
Sixth straight month of losses; jobless rate still 5.5 percent
July. 3, 2008
WASHINGTON - Employers cut payrolls by 62,000 in June, the sixth straight month of nationwide job losses, underscoring the economy’s fragile state. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.5 percent.
The latest snapshot of business conditions, released by the Labor Department on Thursday, showed continued caution on the part of employers who are chafing under high energy prices and are uncertain about how long the economy will be stuck in a sluggish mode, reflecting fallout from housing, credit and financial troubles.
Heavy job losses in construction, manufacturing and financial services, along with cutbacks in retailing, eclipsed job gains in education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and government.
not a healthy scenario in the jobs market.
NT
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market news.....
Gas hits fresh record ahead of July 4
National average gas price climbs to $4.098 a gallon.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Retail gas prices rose overnight to a record high for the fourth day in a row, ahead of the July 4 holiday weekend - one of the nation's busiest weekends for travel.
The national average price for a gallon of regular gas rose to an all-time high of $4.098 from $4.092 the day before, a daily survey by motorist group AAA showed Thursday.
Alaska has the highest gas prices in the nation. Drivers in the state pay an average of $4.689 a gallon for regular gas. California and Hawaii have the second and third-highest average gas prices, at $4.574 and $4.441, respectively.
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Barak will make it all better, just ask a Democrat.
401k's will skyrocket and the dollar will be worth 2 Euro's.
Monkey's abound complaining and crying hoping doomsday is near. Liberals need to smile more and move to Europe to see how much better it is there, even Canada.
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market news.....
G-8 leaders face ominous economic woes this year
July 4, 2008 AP
SAPPORO, Japan — Between surging oil prices, food inflation and a credit crunch that's depressed global growth, leaders from the Group of Eight economic powers face the gravest combination of economic woes in at least a decade when they gather next week.
The outlook has darkened dramatically since last year's summit in Germany, when the leaders declared the global economy was in "good condition" and oil cost $70 a barrel -- which seemed high at the time.
Since then, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has erupted, roiling markets and battering financial firms. Oil has doubled to above $140 and food prices have jumped, hurting the poor in particular and raising the threat of political instability.
"Things have changed for the worse across the board," said Robert Hormats, vice chairman at Goldman Sachs (International) Corp. in New York.
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market news....
World Bank chief urges G8 to act now as "world entering danger zone"
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick has called on leaders of the G8 as well as the major oil producers to act now to deal with surging food and energy prices, warning that the world is now "entering a danger zone."
"What we are witnessing is not a natural disaster -- a silent tsunami or a perfect storm: It is a man-made catastrophe, and as such must be fixed by people," Zoellick said.
"I urge the Group of Eight countries, in concert with major oil producers, to act now to address this crisis. This is a test of the global system to help the most vulnerable, and it cannot afford to fail," said the World Bank chief.
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market news....
World Bank chief urges G8 to act now as "world entering danger zone"
WASHINGTON, July 3 -- World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick has called on leaders of the G8 as well as the major oil producers to act now to deal with surging food and energy prices, warning that the world is now "entering a danger zone."
"What we are witnessing is not a natural disaster -- a silent tsunami or a perfect storm: It is a man-made catastrophe, and as such must be fixed by people," Zoellick said.
"I urge the Group of Eight countries, in concert with major oil producers, to act now to address this crisis. This is a test of the global system to help the most vulnerable, and it cannot afford to fail," said the World Bank chief.
JUMP! JUMP! JUMP!
The world will recover and be just fine. More experienced and knowledgeable economists amongst us know the free market is cyclical.
Now is a better time for buying quality stocks! Not when it's up 300% over the last 24 months.
Please do yourself a favor and try reading a little bit more about how economies work.
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market news.....
Stocks stumble as investors fret about financials
S&P 500 briefly joins Dow industrials and Nasdaq Composite in bear territory
July 7, 2008 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks shifted lower Monday to cap a day that started with a rally and dissolved into a steep plunge, as worries banks would be slammed with credit-related losses competed with early cheer fueled by a large drop in the price of crude.
"We were up on the day early as we saw oil prices receding, then fell on concern about financials as we go into earnings - maybe it's a return to normal summer volatility," said Kleintop.
After rising more than 100 points only to fall just as steeply, the Dow Jones Industrial
closed at 11,231.96, off 56.58 points, or 0.5%.
guys, earnings season kicks off tomorrow. right now the market is temporarily oversold, so any glimmer of hope will trigger a short cover BS rally. IMO any rally will ultimately fail as we continue to head lower. i expect the Dow to break below 11,000 in the near future.
as of today, the Dow has tanked 3,000 points since the fall of 07.
Dow in Nov 2007 = 14,200
Dow in July 2008 = 11,200
NT
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market news.....
Stocks stumble as investors fret about financials
S&P 500 briefly joins Dow industrials and Nasdaq Composite in bear territory
July 7, 2008 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks shifted lower Monday to cap a day that started with a rally and dissolved into a steep plunge, as worries banks would be slammed with credit-related losses competed with early cheer fueled by a large drop in the price of crude.
"We were up on the day early as we saw oil prices receding, then fell on concern about financials as we go into earnings - maybe it's a return to normal summer volatility," said Kleintop.
After rising more than 100 points only to fall just as steeply, the Dow Jones Industrial
closed at 11,231.96, off 56.58 points, or 0.5%.
guys, earnings season kicks off tomorrow. right now the market is temporarily oversold, so any glimmer of hope will trigger a short cover BS rally. IMO any rally will ultimately fail as we continue to head lower. i expect the Dow to break below 11,000 in the near future.
as of today, the Dow has tanked 3,000 points since the fall of 07.
Dow in Nov 2007 = 14,200
Dow in July 2008 = 11,200
NT
Heard on the radio today that even Canada is starting to talk about stagflation. Looks like its an all around grim forecast for everyone.
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Starts at 2:50. Any opinions?
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The number of homes sold in the US fell more than expected in May, down 14% compared with the same month last year.
Figures from the National Association of Realtors also showed an uneven picture across the country.
States in the south of the country saw the largest fall, down 22.1%, but the number of sales contracts signed in the west was 2% higher than in May 2007.
Property market analysts predict the downturn will continue until next year as Americans fret about the economy.
"You are going to see this trend for a while," said Bob Moulton of American Mortgage Group. "People are nervous about their jobs, they are nervous about getting approved and they are nervous about paying too much for a house."
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guys, earnings season kicks off tomorrow. right now the market is temporarily oversold, so any glimmer of hope will trigger a short cover BS rally. IMO any rally will ultimately fail as we continue to head lower. i expect the Dow to break below 11,000 in the near future.
as i mentioned before, earnings season begins today. (after the bell ) the earnings bar has been lowered to a point that "beating analysts expectations" should be a walk in the park. couple that with an extremely oversold market and you have the perfect recipe for a violent short cover/bear market rally.
NT
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as i mentioned before, earnings season begins today. (after the bell ) the earnings bar has been lowered to a point that "beating analysts expectations" should be a walk in the park. couple that with an extremely oversold market and you have the perfect recipe for a violent short cover/bear market rally.
NT
U.S. Stocks Climb, Led by Banks; Citigroup, UPS, Wal-Mart Climb
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose the most in almost a month, led by banks and transportation companies, after JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s chief executive officer said losses in credit markets will ease and oil posted its biggest drop since March.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 153.56, or 1.1 percent, to 11,384.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 51.8, or 1.9 percent, to 2,294.12. Almost four stocks gained for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.
NT
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as i mentioned before, earnings season begins today. (after the bell ) the earnings bar has been lowered to a point that "beating analysts expectations" should be a walk in the park. couple that with an extremely oversold market and you have the perfect recipe for a violent short cover/bear market rally.
Alcoa Profit Tops Estimates on Higher Metal Prices
July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the world's third-largest aluminum producer, reported second-quarter profit that topped analysts' estimates as the company raised prices. The shares gained in after-hours trading.
NT
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market news....
Fed Sees Turmoil Persisting Deep Into Next Year
July 9, 2008
WASHINGTON — Federal policy makers have concluded that the turmoil plaguing the housing and financial markets is likely to spill deep into 2009, becoming one of the most significant domestic problems to confront the next president when he steps into the White House in January.
Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, publicly indicated on Tuesday that he believes the problems will persist into next year when he outlined a series of steps the Fed is considering in the coming months.
Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said in a speech last week in London that the problems of the housing and financial markets might last longer than originally expected.
Mr. Paulson said 1.5 million home foreclosures were started in 2007 and that an estimated 2.5 million more would take place this year.
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guys, this is how Wall Street really works. ;)
Study Finds Flawed Practices at Ratings Firms
July 9, 2008
The analyst at the credit ratings agency was blunt: “Let’s hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of cards falters.”
That candid assessment, sent by e-mail to a colleague in December 2006, referred to the market for certain investments linked to subprime mortgages — investments that were assigned top AAA ratings from major agencies, only to later plummet in value.
That e-mail message and dozens like it were disclosed Tuesday in a blistering 37-page report issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which confirmed what many on Wall Street had long suspected: the major ratings firms, including Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, flouted conflict of interest guidelines and considered their own profits when rating securities, among other suspect practices.
The report represented a definitive dent in the aura of objectivity that has been cultivated for decades by ratings firms, considered the ivory towers of Wall Street.
“It could be structured by cows and we would rate it,” an analyst wrote in April 2007
NT
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Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, publicly indicated on Tuesday that he believes the problems will persist into next year when he outlined a series of steps the Fed is considering in the coming months.
Step 1. Give banks money.
Step 2. Give banks money.
Step 3. Give banks money.
Step 4. Give banks money.
ad infinitum
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market news....
U.S. Stocks Tumble, Sending S&P 500 to Bear Market; Banks Slide
July 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slid, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index into its first bear market since 2002, after rising borrowing costs spurred concern the biggest mortgage finance companies may not weather the housing slump.
The S&P 500 lost 29.01 points, or 2.3 percent, to 1,244.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 236.77, or 2.1 percent, to 11,147.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 59.55, or 2.6 percent, to 2,234.89. Almost four stocks declined for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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since thread started.....Dow, S&P and Nasdaq ALL DOWN 20+ percent. ;)
NT
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For old times sake. At 4:17. hahaha, hmmm :-\
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guys, for comic relief let's look at the jobs report released this morning. apparently, jobless claims went "down" while continuing jobless claims rose to their highest level since 2003. ;D
U.S. initial jobless claims hit lowest level since April
July 10, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 58,000 in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. At 346,000, initial claims were the lowest since April. The four-week average of those claims fell to 380,500, while continuing claims hit their highest level since December 2003. Continuing claims rose to 3.20 million, and the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.13 million
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guys, IMO do not buy into ANY "rally" at this point. all rallies are being "sold into" by professionals.
NT
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The heads of the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury have moved to calm fears about the financial health of the nation's two largest mortgage firms.
Shares in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hit 17-year lows in Thursday trading amid talk of a government bail-out.
Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson also called for new powers to shield the economy from crises such as the collapse of a Wall Street firm.
They told the US Congress they needed to modernise the regulatory system.
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July 11 (Bloomberg) -- Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose more than forecast in June as record energy costs and a decline in the dollar made purchases of foreign products more expensive.
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Shares in US mortgage firms Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae dropped by as much as 50% in rollercoaster trading on Friday amid concerns for their future.
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Shares in US mortgage firms Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae dropped by as much as 50% in rollercoaster trading on Friday amid concerns for their future.
They own 5.2 trillion in loans made with money that does not, has not, and will not ever exist.
Are you going to be at the rally, or did you chicken out? You have my # give me a call if you make it down here.
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guys, DO NOT listen to any advice regarding stocks on TV. IMO we continue to head much lower.
i expect breaking Dow 11,000 very soon. from there, my short term downside target is 10,800
worst market conditions i've seen in 20+ yrs.
NT
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just so everybody understands......when i talk about exiting the market for safety, i only believe this makes sense for the average investor when a BIG DOWNTURN may occur. this thread is NOT about trading etc. this thread was started because my experience leads me to believe that a recession is on the horizon. with a recession comes a corresponding LARGE stock market correction. both recessionary and bubble (real estate) corrections many times take yrs to recover loses. (think dot-com bubble)
it makes no sense for the average guy to jump in and out of the market for the "normal ups and downs". if investors would AVOID the big corrections, their returns would increase significantly.
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guys, DO NOT listen to any advice regarding stocks on TV. IMO we continue to head much lower.
i expect breaking Dow 11,000 very soon. from there, my short term downside target is 10,800
worst market conditions i've seen in 20+ yrs.
ok guys, today we broke Dow 11,000 then bounced off 10,827 to end the session @ 10,962.57 down 92 points. the market continues to show weakness especially in the financials. without the financials, this market goes nowhere... but lower.
with some blood in the water, people are beginning to get nervous.
NT
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10860 as we speak. How much lower my copy/paste pirate friend?
I'm thinking you'll see a final of around 10,420... Then I'd recommend a buy rating.
Hell, even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are starting to look good with government financing now. Buy Fannie at 6 or 7 and watch a rise to about 23 in a year.
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we're not close. ;)
NT
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ok guys, today we broke Dow 11,000 then bounced off 10,827 to end the session @ 10,962.57 down 92 points. the market continues to show weakness especially in the financials. without the financials, this market goes nowhere... but lower.
with some blood in the water, people are beginning to get nervous.
NT 8)
People should be nervous. The entire financial system is bordering on collapse and we have a President that is a moron.
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With the exception of this thread and a small handful of others, it seems most people are content with discussing drawings of Obama and talking about Cindy McCain and ignoring the seriousness of our situation. Nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care, the willfully ignorant, allowing the douchbags at the top to get away with anything they want without even so much as a peep coming from any of the brainiacs on this board. Sad, really.
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With the exception of this thread and a small handful of others, it seems most people are content with discussing drawings of Obama and talking about Cindy McCain and ignoring the seriousness of our situation. Nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care, the willfully ignorant, allowing the douchbags at the top to get away with anything they want without even so much as a peep coming from any of the brainiacs on this board. Sad, really.
Speak for yourself. I marched on the nation's capital on Saturday.
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Speak for yourself. I marched on the nation's capital on Saturday.
I signed up to work for McCain.
And stared down a driver that had an Obama bumpersticker, I rode the ass of another one that evening.
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I signed up to work for McCain.
And stared down a driver that had an Obama bumpersticker, I rode the ass of another one that evening.
McShitstain supporter? I got a Ron Paul sticker on my truck sittin on 35's I'd love for a joker like you to try that shit with me. Your ass would wind up in a ditch or eating my ARB bumper.
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Speak for yourself. I marched on the nation's capital on Saturday.
?
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after dropping to institutional support @ Dow 12,800, the shorts began to cover and take profits.
net result: Dow up nearly 500 points in two days.
NT
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With the exception of this thread and a small handful of others, it seems most people are content with discussing drawings of Obama and talking about Cindy McCain and ignoring the seriousness of our situation. Nobody seems to notice, nobody seems to care, the willfully ignorant, allowing the douchbags at the top to get away with anything they want without even so much as a peep coming from any of the brainiacs on this board. Sad, really.
That's fucking bullshit. We talk about all the other shit too. You can't just show up here and all of a sudden be an expert on what the forum is. Do a search and see how much we talk about Iraq and the economy and other issues. We do. Now you can rag on us when all we do is talk about some distraction for way to long, but infact you'll see even I have bitched when the media drags us down a distraction for to long. We've talked Iraq and economy until we're blue in the face. The New Yorker thing was worth posting. If we didn't have other subjects here to talk about along with the major issues, I fucking guarantee nobody would be posting here very much.
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this helped the recent short cover rally.
SEC Moves to Curb Short-Selling
The Securities and Exchange Commission took unprecedented action against short sellers. Acting on a widespread concern that negative bets against bank and brokerage stocks might be exacerbating the financial sector's woes. In a dramatic emergency order, the SEC said it would immediately move to curb improper short selling in the stocks of struggling mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as those of 17 financial firms, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co.
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this helped the recent short cover rally.
SEC Moves to Curb Short-Selling
The Securities and Exchange Commission took unprecedented action against short sellers. Acting on a widespread concern that negative bets against bank and brokerage stocks might be exacerbating the financial sector's woes. In a dramatic emergency order, the SEC said it would immediately move to curb improper short selling in the stocks of struggling mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as those of 17 financial firms, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co.
as i've stated numerous times, the financials/banks control the markets direction. by curbing short sellers in financial stocks, the SEC/PPT forced financial short players to cover the last two days, resulting in a huge short cover rally.
without the financials, this market goes nowhere... but lower.
the SEC/PPT manipulated the short selling rules to push the financials higher......which moved the overall market higher.
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if the SEC/PPT now controls short selling of the financials, and the financials control the markets direction........ guess who's in control now ?
NT
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guys, last week as the Dow hit institutional support @ 10,800; the Fed announced an investigation into oil speculation trading along with an unprecedented move in curbing short sellers in financial/banking stocks. the above actions resulted in traders covering their financial/banking short positions as well as oil dropping like a rock. net result: Dow up 550 points in 3 days.
market psychology is now completely altered by the above Fed actions. remember, financials ALWAYS lead the market higher, and if short sellers avoid the financials.....we head higher no matter how bad the economy is.
IF the market can hold 10,800 going into the election, i'd expect that to be our base to work off of.
NT
Paulson Braces Public for Tough Times
AP (July 20) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson sought to reassure an anxious public Sunday that the banking system is sound, while also bracing people for more troubled times ahead."I think it's going to be months that we're working our way through this period — clearly months," he said.
Paulson said the number of troubled banks will increase as they struggle to cope with big losses on bad mortgages. The government this month took over IndyMac after a run led it to become the largest regulated thrift to fail.
"Of course the list is going to grow longer given the stresses we have in the marketplace, given the housing correction. But again, it's a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation," he said in broadcast interviews.
"We're going through a challenging time with our economy. This is a tough time. The three big issues we're facing right now are, first, the housing correction which is at the heart of the slowdown; secondly, turmoil of the capital markets; and thirdly, the high oil prices, which are going to prolong the slowdown," he said.
Paulson acknowledged the U.S. is continuing to lose jobs, though he said the $168 billion economic relief plan approved this year has created jobs that would not otherwise exist. The plan included tax rebates for people and tax breaks for businesses.
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guys, right now the stock market is in "No Man's Land". last week we expereinced a nice short cover rally @ 10,800. which was expected, we followed that up with a 300 point selloff.
currently our market lacks earnings, institutional buyers, conviction and direction.
i'd expect to test Dow 10,800 (market support) again in the near future.
NT
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Neuro, quick moment to thank you. You put a lot of time in on this thread and give your honest opinion on the market. I for one appreciate it. thank you!
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McShitstain supporter? I got a Ron Paul sticker on my truck sittin on 35's I'd love for a joker like you to try that shit with me. Your ass would wind up in a ditch or eating my ARB bumper.
haha yeah sure big guy
wow 35s ::)
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guys, right now the stock market is in "No Man's Land". last week we expereinced a nice short cover rally @ 10,800. which was expected, we followed that up with a 300 point selloff.
currently our market lacks earnings, institutional buyers, conviction and direction.
i'd expect to test Dow 10,800 (market support) again in the near future.
NT
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 200 points for the second time in three days after the International Monetary Fund said there is no end in sight to the housing slump.
Merrill Lynch & Co., American International Group Inc. and Fannie Mae led financial shares to a third straight drop as the IMF warned that worsening credit conditions may prolong the economic slowdown. Verizon Communications Inc., the second- largest U.S. phone company, slid to an almost two-year low on a bigger-than-estimated decrease in home-phone lines. Tyson Foods Inc., the second-largest U.S. chicken producer, tumbled the most in six weeks after profit sank 92 percent on higher feed costs.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index retreated 23.39 points, or 1.9 percent, to 1,234.37, its lowest level since reaching an almost three-year low on July 15. The Dow lost 239.61, or 2.1 percent, to 11,131.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 46.31, or 2 percent, to 2,264.22. Four stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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Neuro, quick moment to thank you. You put a lot of time in on this thread and give your honest opinion on the market. I for one appreciate it. thank you!
you're welcome HC. :D
NT
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I love the market!!!! Educate yourselves and make some money like the rest of us. Down markets make for some great profits!
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July 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 200 points for the second time in three days after the International Monetary Fund said there is no end in sight to the housing slump.
Merrill Lynch & Co., American International Group Inc. and Fannie Mae led financial shares to a third straight drop as the IMF warned that worsening credit conditions may prolong the economic slowdown. Verizon Communications Inc., the second- largest U.S. phone company, slid to an almost two-year low on a bigger-than-estimated decrease in home-phone lines. Tyson Foods Inc., the second-largest U.S. chicken producer, tumbled the most in six weeks after profit sank 92 percent on higher feed costs.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index retreated 23.39 points, or 1.9 percent, to 1,234.37, its lowest level since reaching an almost three-year low on July 15. The Dow lost 239.61, or 2.1 percent, to 11,131.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 46.31, or 2 percent, to 2,264.22. Four stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
Seems like sombody didn't post the Market Change for the 29th of July. I wonder why?
Lets see:
Dow 11,397.56 +266.48 +2.39%
Nasdaq 2,319.62 +55.40 +2.45%
S&P 500 1,263.19 +28.82 +2.33%
But this wouldn't fit Nuerotoxin's agenda would it? Don't worry NT just post the bad things and convince yourself the world is ending, i assure you there will be many more days of fluctuation that you can pervert your views of the market on.
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Seems like sombody didn't post the Market Change for the 29th of July. I wonder why?
Lets see:
Dow 11,397.56 +266.48 +2.39%
Nasdaq 2,319.62 +55.40 +2.45%
S&P 500 1,263.19 +28.82 +2.33%
But this wouldn't fit Nuerotoxin's agenda would it? Don't worry NT just post the bad things and convince yourself the world is ending, i assure you there will be many more days of fluctuation that you can pervert your views of the market on.
guys, as i've mentioned before, bear markets are filled with short cover rallies. that's not unusual. in fact, the most violent market swings occur in WEAK markets. Monday, market down 230 points. Tuesday, market up 270 points. ho hum.
don't get too excited guys, since Dow 14,200 we've experienced short cover rallies too numerous to count.
BTW, i've noticed the Gbers who ignored my early advice to exit the market last Nov. tend to be a bit angry with me. maybe they should look in the mirror.
NT
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guys, last week as the Dow hit institutional support @ 10,800; the Fed announced an investigation into oil speculation trading along with an unprecedented move in curbing short sellers in financial/banking stocks. the above actions resulted in traders covering their financial/banking short positions as well as oil dropping like a rock. net result: Dow up 550 points in 3 days.
market psychology is now completely altered by the above Fed actions. remember, financials ALWAYS lead the market higher, and if short sellers avoid the financials.....we head higher no matter how bad the economy is.
IF the market can hold 10,800 going into the election, i'd expect that to be our base to work off of.
NT
guys, Dow 10,800 or S+P 1,200 are important institutional market support levels. as i've stated before, IF we can hold these levels going into the Nov election, it would be a positive for the market and long term buyers.
the financial/bank stocks will ultimately determine when the time is right to enter long again.
i'll keep you posted.
NT
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Here are some top performing Mutual Funds. Nuerotoxin doesn't want you to see this, she is only concerned with telling you the world is ending and how bad the stock market is. Predicting doom and gloom when markets are tough doesn't mean to get out like NT wants you to believe, it means get smarter. As we all know past performance is no indications of future results, here is a little reality check:
Top Performers - 3 Month
Profunds UltraSector Mobile Telecomm Inv WCPIX 50.17%
Profunds UltraSector Mobile Telecomm Svc WCPSX 49.63%
BlackRock Global Resources Instl SGLSX 45.60%
BlackRock Global Resources Inv A SSGRX 45.48%
BlackRock Global Resources Inv C SSGDX 45.25%
BlackRock Global Resources Inv B SSGPX 45.22%
ProFunds Oil Eqpmt Svc & Distr Inv OEPIX 43.18%
ProFunds Oil Eqpmt Svc & Distr Svc OEPSX 42.78%
Fidelity Select Energy Service FSESX 31.35%
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret Y QRAYX 30.98%
Top Performers - 1 Year
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret Y QRAYX 74.63%
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret A QRAAX 73.91%
Rydex Commodities Strategy A RYMEX 73.55%
Rydex Commodities Strategy H RYMBX 73.54%
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret N QRANX 73.28%
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret C QRACX 72.50%
Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy Instl GCCIX 72.49%
Rydex Commodities Strategy C RYMJX 72.23%
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret B QRABX 72.23%
Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy A GSCAX 71.24%
For more info. click the link below:
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/tops/all.html
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Here are some top STOCK performers, too bad it's all doom and gloom for Nuerotoxin.
Remember investors, there are always great opportunities in tough market conditions.
The weak never survive when all they look for is an excuse to fail because eventually they find that excuse.
Click the link Below:
http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?level=2&sort=8&title=Top+100+Stocks&sec=top%7e100%7estocks%2esec
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are you implying my information and opinion have been wrong since Nov. ? if so, point out where.
are you mad i've been correct ?
does that depress you tp ?
would you prefer i only say "happy things" to move the market higher ? i can post just like jim cramer calls the market on TV, but would that be truthful ? i think not.
this thread is about TELLING THE FUCKING TRUTH. if that bothers you tp, read something else.
all day... guys like you run errands for me. :-*
NT
BTW, i would NEVER buy anything you listed above. the party/move is OVER in most those sectors. ;)
Nice reply, did I strike a nerve?
I am hear to counter your consistent "dooms day" posts. A monkey predicted a downswing in our economy in October, where does that leave you?
Of course you wouldn't move into any of those stocks but if you had a few months or even a year ago you would be happier.
The problem with you is simple, you are unhappy, underachieving, or plain pessimistic (not realistic because you choose only to mention the bad) I say this because it is evident in your posts. For example "guys like you run errands for me. :-*" a typical comment from a person who feels inferior.
The truth is not how you present it ONE SIDE of our economy but the economy as a whole and many companies are doing very well as are many investors smarter than you. I see that there are tough times ahead for our economy, but the difference between you and I comes to this: You are invested in a bad economy, your word, your opinion, and your credibility depend on it now. I am invested in the many opportunities that you fail to acknowledge even exist in our economy and the global economy.
God bless the man running your errands because you sound like an A-hole but I am sure he (like me) sees it as an opportunity to be employed maybe even advance and prosper. You obviously don't see it that way because you sit too high on your self made pedestal. Shame on you!!!
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Amazing no Neurotoxin and another wonderful day on Wall Street...I am sensing a trend here. Oh wait, that's right bear markets have cover rallies, lmao.
Dow 11,583.69 +186.13 +1.63%
Nasdaq 2,329.72 +10.10 +0.44%
S&P 500 1,284.26 +21.07 +1.67%
10 Yr Bond(%) 4.0480% +0.0040
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An imposter has been unfolded.
Good job TerminalPower.
Ya know?
I understand the market and economy are suffering in many sectors but how does that translate to all the "doom & gloom" NT presents? Nothing is stopping any American Investor from looking at energy, commodities, banking plus GLOBAL opportunities in emerging markets. You with me? C'mon, NT wants to present only one side and is doing a disservice to Getbiggers.
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I thought about this thread today when I checked my 401k and realized it was still increasing.........I'm holding on for the crash though.
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Neurotoxin knows what he's talking about. Under control for most but more should've listen.
Including me.
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July 31, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday, leaving the market with a mixed performance for July, as economic concerns resurfaced following weaker-than-expected growth numbers and a big jump in jobless claims.
"The data were a little disturbing, especially jobless claims that near critical level," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "The GDP also came up short of expectations, and the general feeling is that now the [tax] stimulus is gone, what comes next?"
The Dow Jones fell, -205.67, -1.8%) to end at 11,378 on Thursday. Out of the Dow's 30 components, 25 retreated.
NT
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Has TP opened the necessary 40 accounts to become a senior broker?
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Terminalpussy?????...Wow, you really are taking my tongue lashing pretty hard.
I won't engage in your sophomoric name calling. I accept your name calling as a indication that you have little else to offer us Getbiggers'.
Here is my report for today I hope you enjoy and somehow find happiness in all the opportunities this country/economy offer you. You will find this article more fair than anything NT puts out. Again Enjoy!
AP
Rebates helped economy -- some -- in second quarter
Thursday July 31, 4:45 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Rebate checks give economy a smaller-than-expected lift; new figures say it shrank late in '07
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The prospects for a quick economic recovery dimmed Thursday, with new data showing the economy grew at a slower-than-expected rate this spring despite some oomph from tax rebate checks -- and actually shrank late last year.
Democrats called for a second economic stimulus package, while the Bush administration said the growth was proof the checks helped.
Armed with government stimulus checks of up to $600 per person, Americans boosted spending on food, clothing and other items in the second quarter, the Commerce Department reported.
But the gross domestic product still increased at a 1.9 percent annual rate, up from 0.9 percent in the first quarter but less than the 2.4 percent economists were looking for.
Government revisions showed the economy actually shrank at the end of last year at a 0.2 percent annual rate. It was the first quarterly dip for the GDP since the 2001 recession.
Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid-off people rose to 448,000 last week, the most in five years. More job cuts are expected in coming months, and Americans may cut back on spending, kindling recession fears.
Wall Street didn't like what it saw. Following two days of gains, the Dow Jones industrials fell 205.67 points to 11378.02.
President Bush acknowledged the economic news was "not as good as we'd like it to be." His commerce secretary, Carlos Gutierrez, said the growth showed the stimulus package was providing some relief.
"Some said the rebates would not have an impact. Well, they were wrong," Gutierrez told The Associated Press. "The stimulus checks are having an impact in spite of the energy prices."
On the campaign trail, the economic policy director for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama said nothing in the new numbers was "positive for families" and said Obama supported a second stimulus package.
Republican Sen. John McCain said the report was disappointing but added that trade "provides one of the few bright spots in an otherwise gloomy economic picture."
Sales of U.S. exports grew at a 9.2 percent pace in the second quarter, up from 5.1 percent in the first quarter. The weak dollar has made U.S. goods cheaper to foreign buyers.
Consumer spending for the second quarter rose at a 1.5 percent rate, better than the first quarter and the best showing since the third quarter of last year, when the economy was still chugging along despite the housing slump.
Slower growth or no, many Americans were grateful for the help as the checks rolled in.
"It was much needed," said Les Jewell, a 32-year-old technology teacher in St. Louis who has a 7-month-old son. "It was very useful, especially when you look at areas like getting formula."
Economists have mixed views on what's to come. A lot hinges on the whims of people who put their rebate checks in the bank: Will they spend them, boosting growth, or keep them stashed away?
There was some evidence Americans saved at least some of the cash. The savings rate rose to 2.6 percent of disposable income, a six-year high.
A growing number of analysts fear that the economy will slip into reverse again at the end of this year, as any effects of the tax rebates disappear. And there are concerns exports could tail off as other countries' economies slow down.
A new poll by the nonpartisan poll by the Pew Research Center released Thursday showed about three in four Americans think the economy is in a recession -- at best -- already. Two in three say their income isn't keeping up with the cost of living.
The GDP report also reflected the continuing fallout in housing. Builders cut back at an annual rate of about 15 percent for the quarter -- although that was a better showing than early this year and late last year.
Businesses trimmed spending on equipment and software and reduced investment in inventories.
An inflation gauge tied to the GDP report showed all prices galloping ahead at a rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the fastest pace since the end of last year.
Taking out energy and food, prices rose 2.1 percent, still outside the Federal Reserve's comfort zone. The Fed meets next week and is expected to hold interest rates steady.
As a general rule, the economy is in recession when it shows two consecutive quarters of contraction.
That didn't happen in the last recession -- in 2001. That was declared a recession by another reading, by a panel of academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research, that usually comes well after the fact.
AP Business Writer Christopher Leonard contributed to this report from St. Louis.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080731/economy.html?.v=19
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Has TP opened the necessary 40 accounts to become a senior broker?
40?
Hell I am fortunate enough to be able to open and handle my own.
39 more is too many for me!
Senior Broker status can be had by others.
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July 31, 2008 (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday, leaving the market with a mixed performance for July, as economic concerns resurfaced following weaker-than-expected growth numbers and a big jump in jobless claims.
"The data were a little disturbing, especially jobless claims that near critical level," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "The GDP also came up short of expectations, and the general feeling is that now the [tax] stimulus is gone, what comes next?"
The Dow Jones fell, -205.67, -1.8%) to end at 11,378 on Thursday. Out of the Dow's 30 components, 25 retreated.
NT
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listen douchebag, every thread you participate in on GB you pull the same shit and EVERYONE knows you're an ASSHOLE. no surprise.
why not start your own oil and commodities thread with your ass licking, moronic friend alex23 ?
if not, go away. no one's interested in the OVERSOLD mutual funds you're pimping.
NT
Such hostility, you sound like a tried and true "digital warrior".
Why are you afraid of what I have to say? This is an open forum and everyone is free to post their ideas and thoughts, not just you. Your immature name calling clearly classifies you as someone incapable of accepting factual based opinion's other than the one you assume.
To better understand the market, you must learn to seperate your emotion from your opinion to ensure it doesn't influence your posts. Work on it NT!
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More positive news and some sobering news on the economy that you won't hear from Nuerotoxin!!![/size]
By Glenn Somerville
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - An emergency dose of government stimulus helped the economy grow at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the second quarter, a soft pace but enough to take it off a path perilously close to recession.
Revised data from the Commerce Department released with the second-quarter figures on Thursday showed national output shrank in the final quarter of 2007 before barely edging up at the start of this year.
"With the boost from tax rebates now fading, lower interest rates having little positive impact and signs emerging that overseas demand is weakening, we expect the economy to contract outright in the second half of this year," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics of London.
As the countdown to the November 4 presidential elections continues, Bush administration officials insisted the economy could keep growing and dismissed calls from prominent Democrats on Capitol Hill for a second economic stimulus program, saying it was not warranted by recent economic reports.
"I think the politicians are much more concerned about the polls than the economic data," White House budget chief Jim Nussle said during a CNBC television interview. President George W. Bush told a coal producers meeting he considered the economy on a sound footing.
"Exports are on the rise. Durable goods orders are strong. That suggests that businesses are anticipating a better second half of the year," Bush said.
The second-quarter advance in gross domestic product followed a slim revised growth rate of 0.9 percent rate in the first quarter, previously reported as 1 percent.
That followed a 0.2 percent contraction in GDP during the final quarter of last year and skirted the popular definition of recession, which is back-to-back quarters of declining output, but it provided no comfort to financial markets.
Stocks fell and Treasury debt prices gained as investors sought safer haven. The dollar held steady against other major currencies.
Adding to a sense of foreboding about the economy, new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped 44,000 last week. Though Labor Department officials said special factors were at play, the jump in claims just before Friday's unemployment report for July reinforced worry about a deeper downturn if consumers retrench on spending for fear of losing their jobs.
Payrolls have declined for six straight months, and analysts expect a drop of 75,000 to be reported for non-farm payrolls in July.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected GDP to advance by a slightly more robust 2 percent in the second quarter.
The Commerce Department said businesses reduced inventories at the sharpest rate since the end of 2001, a possible sign they anticipate restrained growth ahead.
A key reading on core inflation -- personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy -- rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter after gaining 2.3 percent in the first quarter. The moderation in core prices came despite a jump in overall prices of 4.2 percent from 3.6 percent in the first quarter.
Consumer spending, which fuels two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, grew at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter, up from 0.9 percent in the first quarter and 1 percent in the fourth quarter last year. The department noted that personal incomes had risen more sharply in the second quarter and attributed it primarily to the stimulus payments the government was issuing to qualifying consumers.
The economy continues to be hobbled by a severe downturn in the housing sector but the drag from it was less severe in the second quarter. Spending on home building contracted at a 15.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter, down from rates of 25.1 percent in the first quarter and 27 percent in last year's fourth quarter.
The department also issued benchmark revisions for the three-year period 2005-2007, which showed growth was weaker in each year than previously thought. GDP grew 2 percent in 2007 instead of 2.2 percent, 2.8 percent instead of 2.9 percent in 2006 and 2.9 percent rather than 3.1 percent in 2005.
The fourth quarter of 2007 was the weakest three months since the third quarter of 2001 amid the last official recession when GDP shrank at a 1.4 percent rate.
Businesses kept reducing inventories in the second quarter, possibly a sign that they are bracing for a prolonged period of lackluster growth. Stocks of unsold goods declined at a $62.2 billion rate -- the sharpest since an $86.7-billion rate in the fourth quarter of 2001 -- after decreases of $10.2 billion in the first quarter and $8.1 billion in the fourth quarter.
(Additional reporting by Alister Bull, Editing by Neil Stempleman)
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN3043337220080731?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true
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Long term the economy is gonna sink down, down, down. It's inevitable.
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Long term the economy is gonna sink down, down, down. It's inevitable.
LOL. Yes long term economy (in the USA) has been on continual down turn....not.
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LOL. Yes long term economy (in the USA) has been on continual down turn....not.
Power brother, do not infuriate the NT gay watcher, he will simply get more of our posts deleted.
the grown up equivalent of "I'm telling" ::)
..on a bodymuscle message board.
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Power brother, do not infuriate the NT gay watcher, he will simply get more of our posts deleted.
the grown up equivalent of "I'm telling" ::)
..on a bodymuscle message board.
Roger that Brother Alex!
I will knock off the the infuriation I rain down upon NT. I appreciate the heads up and regret any deletions of posts as a result of my actions.
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guys, as i mentioned recently, the SEC placed an unprecedented temporary ban on the short selling of banks and financials. since financials and banks lead the market higher, this ban gives help/support to the overall market. the ban was designed by the PPT to stop the market from free falling below the psychological Dow 10,000 level.
the PPT's short selling ban ends on Aug. 12th. this gives the market some "breathing room" to move higher.... at least until then.
also, IMO stay away from oil and commodities, as the big guys are beginning to exit these sectors. if you buy now as some have suggested, plan on losing your money.
currently this market is for experienced traders only. long term investors will have a great opportunity in the coming months......just be patient.
NT
Short-Selling Ban Extended Through August 12
July 30, 2008
Federal regulators on Tuesday extended through mid-August a temporary order banning a certain kind of short-selling of the stocks of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and 17 large investment banks.
The Securities and Exchange Commission said the ban on short selling will be in effect until 11:59 p.m. EDT on Aug. 12 and will not be extended.
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Neurotoxin knows what he's talking about. Under control for most but more should've listen.
Including me.
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guys, as you can see the US economy continues to shed jobs (51,000) and unemployment rose from 5.5% to 5.7%.
not exactly stellar numbers.
NT
Unemployment Rate Hits 5.7% As Companies Shed 51,000 Jobs
Wall Street Journal Aug 1 2008
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a four-year high in July as companies shed workers for a seventh-straight month, further evidence that the economy remains vulnerable to a recession in the second half of the year.
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guys, the actual jobs lost number was closer to 100,000 but by using the birth-death ratio/adjustment, the PPT was able to create additional phantom jobs.
i will ALWAYS tell you guys the truth about how Wall Street works. i have NO ulterior motive, other than to help you from losing your money.
NT
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guys, the actual jobs lost number was closer to 100,000 but by using the birth-death ratio/adjustment, the PPT was able to create additional phantom jobs.
i will ALWAYS tell you guys the truth about how Wall Street works. i have NO ulterior motive, other than to help you from losing your money.
NT
Has a ban on short selling ever been implemented by the SEC in previous times?
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Has a ban on short selling ever been implemented by the SEC in previous times?
no. first time ever.
NT
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guys, the actual jobs lost number was closer to 100,000 but by using the birth-death ratio/adjustment, the PPT was able to create additional phantom jobs.
i will ALWAYS tell you guys the truth about how Wall Street works. i have NO ulterior motive, other than to help you from losing your money.
NT
I have been in for about 20 years
Have averaged 11% return.
Harden the fuck up, be courageous instead of the fear for women that is propagated here.
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
Well, everyone is allowed to be wrong every so and so!
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I have been in for about 20 years
Have averaged 11% return.
Harden the fuck up, be courageous instead of the fear for women that is propagated here.
Oh that's what it is, Courage?
I think smart money on wall street would call it something else.
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Oh that's what it is, Courage?
I think smart money on wall street would call it something else.
Over the long run smart money makes money.
He can call it courage, intellect...whatever, lets not play semantics.
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Oh that's what it is, Courage?
I think smart money on wall street would call it something else.
agreed. (it's called dumb money)
think about it, over the last 10 yrs the Nasdaq's return is MINUS - 55%, with inflation it's down well over MINUS - 65%.
over the same time frame (10 YRS) the S+P and Dow are both FLAT. with inflation calulated in, their both down well over MINUS - 20 %
years ago people bought stocks and placed them in their sock drawer for 20-30 yrs and made solid returns. those days are OVER. today, the average investor must be nimble and avoid big market downturns to see decent returns.
NT
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Here are some facts NT doesn't want you to see. These are Mutual Funds in the Large Cap Growth catagory, some big names and lot's of SMART MONEY invested in these funds.
Top Performers - 1 Year (out of 1786)
Fund Name Symbol Return
CGM Mutual LOMMX 26.15%
JHancock Large Cap Equity I JLVIX 23.34%
Janus Twenty JAVLX 23.21%
Janus Aspen Forty Instl JACAX 23.17%
Janus Adviser Forty I JCAPX 23.07%
JHancock Large Cap Equity A TAGRX 22.91%
Quaker Strategic Growth I QAGIX 22.91%
Janus Aspen Forty Svc N/A 22.89%
Janus Adviser Forty A JDCAX 22.77%
Janus Adviser Forty S JARTX 22.49%
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gbers, as long as the banks and financials are being manipulated by the PPT, short term downside risk is very limited, despite bad economic news.
NT
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gbers, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. (IMO, interest rates unchanged) the shorting of financials off the table til Aug. 12th and with limited economic news this week, i'd expect the S@P to test 1,300 to the upside. (keep in mind this market is still very weak)
BTW, when the market finally turns and it's time to buy stocks longterm again, i'll post a large number of Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's) which act just like Mutual Funds WITHOUT any ridiculous broker fee's attached. IMO, Mutual Funds are for dumb money/suckers.
market fact: 80% of Mutual Funds UNDERPERFORM the overall market.
NT
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Consumer spending in the US slowed in June, official figures have shown, as Americans were hit by the biggest price rises since 1981. Inflation-adjusted spending fell 0.2% in June, the Commerce Department said.
Its inflation gauge rose 0.8% in the month, which was the biggest increase since February 1981's reading of 1.0%.
On Tuesday the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rates move with economists saying that inflation will make the decision tough.
The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but there will be much interest in whether its statement expresses concerns about rising prices.
The rising prices helped limit the impact of the government's $168bn (£85bn) stimulus programme.
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Worst inflation in 27 years trumps tax rebates
WASHINGTON Aug. 4, 2008 -- The windfall of cash from Washington in June got eaten up by the worst inflation in 27 years, Commerce Department data showed Monday.
NT
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IMO stay away from oil and commodities, as the big guys are beginning to exit these sectors. if you buy now as some have suggested, plan on losing your money.
NT
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Aug. 4 (WSJ) -- Crude oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May.
Crude oil for September delivery fell $5.34, or 4.3 percent, to $119.76 a barrel at 11:42 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. New York oil futures have slipped more than $28 a barrel from the record $147.27 on July 11 as U.S. gasoline demand slowed, and a stronger dollar reduced the attraction of commodities as an investment. ;)
Oil touched $119.50 a barrel, the lowest since May 6.
NT
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CRB Commodity Index Caps Biggest One-Day Decline Since March
Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Plunging prices for cocoa, natural gas and sugar sent the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities to its biggest one-day decline since March.
The CRB index fell 3.4 percent to 401.98, which marks the largest slide since March 19. The gauge dropped to the lowest level since May 2 today, as did the UBS-Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index.
The CRB slid 10 percent in July, the most in any month since March 1980, when the U.S. economy was in a recession. A worsening global growth outlook and prospects for increased supply sent raw materials such as crude oil, soybeans and gasoline tumbling from records in the past month.
``Speculation had been driving these markets and they were due for a correction as so many prices had gotten overdone,'' said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage $16.7 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati.
NT
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IMO stay away from oil and commodities, as the big guys are beginning to exit these sectors. if you buy now as some have suggested, plan on losing your money.
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gbers, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. (IMO, interest rates unchanged) the shorting of financials off the table til Aug. 12th and with limited economic news this week, i'd expect the S@P to test 1,300 to the upside. (keep in mind this market is still very weak)
NT
opinion unchanged unless "big ben" raises interest rates. (which i do not expect)
traders market only. long term investors be patient, your time will come !
NT
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gbers, no surprise here. ;)
NT
U.S. Stocks Advance as Oil Falls, Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied the most since April as oil retreated to a three-month low and the Federal Reserve predicted inflation will ease through next year.
The S&P 500 added 34.12, or 2.7 percent, to 1,283.13 at 3:51 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 326.49, or 2.9 percent, to 11,610.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 63.51 to 2,349.07. Nine stocks advanced for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.
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HAHHAHAHAH you are now officially talking to yourself shmoe...
nodoby cares b/c they read it before you posted it.
Why don't u start your own blog instead of spamming a bb board?
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HAHHAHAHAH you are now officially talking to yourself shmoe...
nodoby cares b/c they read it before you posted it.
Why don't u start your own blog instead of spamming a bb board?
OH...Hi Alex!
How was your day today?
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Pretty lucrative actually ;D
Looking forward for the fall rebound 8)..
What exactly is going to cause this fall rebound?
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Your mom's gigantic ass hitting the East COast ground after tripping over her panties.
So in other words, you're losing your ass in the stock market right now, but things will get better because it always goes up, right?? right??!!
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No, just clinging to how large your mom's ass has grown to be.
This place = fun to post and not too serious. Trying to play mind challengers on here = deeply pathetic.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. snore.
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Freddie Mac, which offers funding for a huge proportion of US mortgages, has posted a quarterly loss amid continued problems in the housing market.
As mortgage defaults climb and house prices sink, it made a loss of $821m (£420m) in the three months to the end of June, down from a profit of $729m. Shares in Freddie Mac fell sharply last month on fears that it would run out of money to fund its business. The US government was forced to take radical steps to ease the panic.
Stronger position?
Freddie Mac, and its counterpart Fannie Mae, are the backbone of the US mortgage market as almost all US lenders rely on them to buy their mortgages in order to access the funds to lend to consumers. As mortgage guarantors, they must pay out when homeowners default on their loans. As the housing market across the US crumbles, their finances have come under severe stress.
In its latest set of earnings, Freddie Mac set aside $2.5bn, compared with $1.2bn in the first quarter of 2008, and slashed its dividend by 80% to five cents pending board approval. The company said this reflected increases in mortgage delinquency rates, foreclosures and estimated losses due to continued declines in home prices, it said.
Freddie Mac reiterated that it would raise $5.5bn of new capital to shore up its balance sheet and raised the possibility that it may need to raise more than that depending upon "market conditions".
"We are confident the actions we are taking are strengthening Freddie Mac's financial and competitive position and will generate value well into the future," said Richard Syron, Freddie Mac's chairman and chief executive
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Problems in the US housing market have pushed mortgage finance company Fannie Mae into the red.
The group sank to a net loss of $2.3bn in the three months to 30 June, against a profit of $1.97bn last year.It comes days after its sister company Freddie Mac posted worse-than-expected results and its top executive warned house price falls are not over yet. Both government sponsored firms own, or guarantee, nearly half of the nation's mortgage debt.
Difficult market
As mortgage guarantors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, must pay out when people default on their loans. But as a result of recent woes in the US housing market and subsequent sub-prime crisis the pair have run into severe difficulty.
Fannie Mae said that the current housing crisis had added to its woes to the tune of $5.3bn in credit expenses.
The latest losses at the firm - which came in at more than three times analysts' estimates - followed a $2.2bn loss for the first three months of the year. "Our second-quarter results reflect challenging conditions in the housing and mortgage markets that began in 2006 and have deepened through 2007 and 2008," said Daniel H Mudd, president and chief executive officer of Fannie Mae.
He added that the firm had also taken steps to raise an additional $7bn to help it tackle the "most difficult US housing market in more than 70 years". As part of the plan Fannie Mae is cutting its dividend from 0.35 cents to 0.05, raising its fees and has taken steps to cut its costs by 10%
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NOT THIS BLOG-A-THREAD HAS GROWN TO 2 PLAYERS; ME AND HIS 2 CUT AND PASTING GIMMMICKS.
I AM DONE. WILL YOU CONTINUE?
Is oil going to be down to 70 by next Christmas perhaps?
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Big stock rally on oil retreat
August 11, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Monday, extending last week's surge, as falling oil prices and a stronger dollar buoyed investor optimism for a second session in a row.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/11/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008081114
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Big stock rally on oil retreat
August 11, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Monday, extending last week's surge, as falling oil prices and a stronger dollar buoyed investor optimism for a second session in a row.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/11/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008081114
Just wait.
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gbers, with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. (IMO, interest rates unchanged) the shorting of financials off the table til Aug. 12th and with limited economic news this week, i'd expect the S@P to test 1,300 to the upside. (keep in mind this market is still very weak)
as expected, the market has acted accordingly. ;)
NT
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Economic fundamentals havent changed one bit, I don't see how anyone can think things will get better with band-aid solutions.
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agreed, but the banks and the Fed control this market.
not economic fundamentals.
NT
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US foreclosure filings surge 55 percent
Thu Aug 14, 2008
The number of homeowners stung by the dramatic decline in the U.S. housing market jumped last month as foreclosure filings grew by more than 50 percent compared with the same month a year ago, according to data released Thursday.
Nationwide, more than 272,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in July, up 55 percent from about 175,000 in the same month last year and up 8 percent from June, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
The combination of weak housing sales, falling home values, tighter mortgage lending criteria and a slowing U.S. economy has left financially strapped homeowners with few options to avoid foreclosure. Many can't find buyers or owe more than their home is worth and can't refinance into an affordable loan.
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Large U.S. Banks May Fail Amid Recession
Aug. 19, 2008 Credit market turmoil has driven the U.S. into a recession and may topple some of the nation's biggest banks, said Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.
``The worst is yet to come in the U.S.,'' Rogoff said in an interview in Singapore today. ``The financial sector needs to shrink; I don't think simply having a couple of medium-sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job.''
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Housing Starts in U.S. Dropped to 17-Year Low in July
Aug. 19 2008 U.S. builders probably broke ground in July on the fewest houses in 17 years, signaling the residential-construction slump will continue to hurt growth, economists said before a government report today.
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gbers, anytime you see wild market swings (market up 200 points then down 200 points) this points to a WEAK unstable market.
please be careful.
NT
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Financial Unease Trips Up Stocks
Major indexes' losing streak continued Tuesday as those investors who haven't taken off on vacation were spooked by continued signs of credit-related fallout on Wall Street, a rebound in energy prices, and glum economic data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a second straight day of decline, sliding 130.84 points, or 1.1%, at 11348.55. American International Group fell by 5.9% after a Goldman Sachs research report warned investors to stay away from AIG shares because of the potential for another round of capital raising.
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Housing Starts in U.S. Dropped to 17-Year Low in July
Aug. 19 2008 U.S. builders probably broke ground in July on the fewest houses in 17 years, signaling the residential-construction slump will continue to hurt growth, economists said before a government report today.
hah that was crazy, I guess were getting back on track with somewhat real results now that the corrections in the New York building codes and permits have been adjusted for truths.
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Wholesale prices: Highest annual rate in 27 years
Tuesday, Aug 19, 2008
In another indication of growing inflation, wholesale prices increased in July to the highest annual rate in 27 years, according to a government report released Tuesday.
The annual Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 9.8% in the 12 months that ended in July.
The jump in wholesale prices is the fastest rate of increase since a 10.4% bump-up in June 1981, according to Joseph Kowal, economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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gbers, not much occurred today. the ailing US banking system continues to hold institutional investors on the sidelines.
NT
NEW YORK U.S. stocks traded mixed on Wednesday, with upbeat results from computer-maker Hewlett-Packard unable to offset ongoing concerns about ailing financial firms.
"We had a good report on energy this morning," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "But the market has been having trouble holding onto these gains."
"The other issue is there's no one around," Mendelsohn said, referring to the very low trading volumes typically seen in the second half of August.
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gbers, this is purely an experienced traders market. IMO long term investors should "keep their powder dry" and await the great opportunities that lie ahead. :D
NT
U.S. Economy: Leading Index Signals Deeper Slowdown
Aug. 21 The U.S. slowdown will deepen in the second half of the year as housing continues to slump and unemployment rises, according to a measure designed to predict the economy's direction.
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell 0.7 percent in July, more than triple the drop forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Separate reports today showed the number of Americans collecting unemployment insurance remained near a five-year high last week and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region shrank for a ninth straight month.
``The economy has really shown one sign after another of weakening,'' Martin Feldstein, a Harvard University economist, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where he's attending an annual Federal Reserve conference. Feldstein said he is ``much more pessimistic than a year ago'' about the outlook.
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gbers, my opinion remains unchanged. :-\
NT
U.S. stock losses mount along with financial worries
Aug. 25, 2008 NEW YORK U.S. stock indexes dropped about 2% Monday, retreating after three straight sessions of mostly gains, with concerns about the financial sector continuing to weigh on sentiment and housing data failing to appease investors' unease.
"Financial stresses are still permeating global financial systems, despite massive accommodation from the Fed," said analysts at Action Economics.
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NT, Please comment on this post...
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This is a FANSTASY price of gold, not backed IN ANY REALITY. 80% of the short position in gold is held by 6 investment banks (the bad guys). You know , the same people that brought you such hits as CDO's, SIV's, and all your favorite scam paper.
Hold physical and MAKE the price go up yourself. If just 10 PERCENT of the dumb people holding GLD or SLV converted to physical, you would be part of the solution, and part of a huge jump in price, not the problem.
You see, the SLV and GLD were CREATED as another vehicle to control the price of gold, dont believe the idiots out there who say it helped raise it. Most of those investors would own physical.
What happends when you short the GLD? You guessed, the Gold disappears, quite literally out the back door of the vault. When the time came and you really wanted your gold, so will everyone else, and you know it wont be there, at least not for everyone. All those shorts guarantee that.
Look at it this way, when you short the GLD, your selling gold that you dont own. So if you have to close your short, you would need to buy back the same gold your competing for because the SHTF(s___hits the fan senario). Buy physical and you will never sweat. They cant take that from you , but you bet Barclays and whoever will try to take your gold.
They also use your gold (lease it out) to cover shortages. Thats a no no, if its buried in ur backyard. See, your the reason gold is at 820 instead of 1200 right now. So stop it.
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gbers, the enormity of our current banking problems are NOT being told to the public. i cannot stress this enough.
IMO, it's imperative you understand and stay out of harms way.
NT
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market is still very weak.
IMO do not get sucked into headfake rallies. you'll regret it !
NT
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Sept.4 Dow Industrials drop 347 points on economic and financial woes.
NT
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Thursday September 4,
Wall Street plunges as retail sales reports, jobless data add to market's gloom about economy
NEW YORK (AP) -- Dejected investors sent stocks plunging Thursday, hurtling the Dow Jones industrials down more than 340 points after retailers and the government added to a mountain of bad economic news and devastated hopes for a late-year recovery.
NT
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Jobless rate jumps to 5-year high of 6.1 percent
September 5, 2008
The nation's unemployment rate zoomed to a five-year high of 6.1 percent in August as employers slashed 84,000 jobs, dramatic proof of the mounting damage a deeply troubled economy is inflicting on workers and businesses alike.
The Labor Department's report, released Friday, showed the increasing toll the housing, credit and financial crises are taking on the economy
NT
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U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures, Delinquencies Reach Highs
Sept. 5 Foreclosures accelerated to the fastest pace in almost 30 years during the second quarter as interest rates increased and home values fell, prompting more Americans to walk away from homes they couldn't refinance or sell.
NT
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Jobless rate jumps to 5-year high of 6.1 percent
September 5, 2008
The nation's unemployment rate zoomed to a five-year high of 6.1 percent in August as employers slashed 84,000 jobs, dramatic proof of the mounting damage a deeply troubled economy is inflicting on workers and businesses alike.
The Labor Department's report, released Friday, showed the increasing toll the housing, credit and financial crises are taking on the economy
NT
This rate is so off the truth it's not even funny..
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actual unemployment in the US is currently running at 13%.
released Gov. numbers are usually fudged.
NT
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gbers, the enormity of our current banking problems are NOT being told to the public. i cannot stress this enough.
IMO, it's imperative you understand and stay out of harms way.
NT
WASHINGTON Sept. 6 — The government is expected to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as soon as this weekend in a monumental move designed to protect the mortgage market from the failure of the two companies, which together hold or guarantee half of the nation's mortgage debt, a person briefed on the matter said Friday night.
Some of the details of the intervention, which could cost taxpayers billions, were not yet available.
NT
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WASHINGTON Sept. 6 — The government is expected to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as soon as this weekend in a monumental move designed to protect the mortgage market from the failure of the two companies, which together hold or guarantee half of the nation's mortgage debt, a person briefed on the matter said Friday night.
Some of the details of the intervention, which could cost taxpayers billions, were not yet available.
not yet available............... .....to the public. ;)
NT
And what do you think about it?
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Slapper, here's what i think.
NT
sunday is a good day to visit your brother's grave. ill take a piss on the flowers in the evening
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sunday is a good day to visit your brother's grave. ill take a piss on the flowers in the evening
What? Tell your wife Mercedes to give me a call.
;D ;D ;D
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What? Tell your wife Mercedes constanza to give me a call.
;D ;D ;D
fixed ;)
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It always amazes me when people here post shit about American citizens getting walfare help... and when we bail out private companies that have operations all over the globe these self-described "patriots" and adherents to rampant capitalism (which works according to them) seem to disappear.
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hey slapper, that disgusting cuunt mercedes/cuntstanza is MY bitcch !
NT
sure but ron is the reason i dont post your dead bros info and with that, expose your old & homosexual ass. I could use a gimmick and fuck you up but i promised ron to not threaten people anymore :)
ps: keep crying to mods to delete my posts :)
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Sept 7 2008 The Bush administration, acting to avert the potential for major financial turmoil, says the federal government was taking control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the actions were being taken because "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe."
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Sept 7 2008 The Bush administration, acting to avert the potential for major financial turmoil, says the federal government was taking control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the actions were being taken because "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe."
smart move to avoid fighting me, wallstreet janitor :)
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smart move to avoid fighting me, wallstreet janitor :)
Yes, but the difference is that Wall Street janitors make 100k a year.
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Yes, but the difference is that Wall Street janitors make 100k a year.
useless when you trusted your anonimity to one of the many sniffed aol proxies ;)
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now for the next taxpayer bailout.....the US auto industry.
NT
Sept 7 2008 US Auto industry allies hope to secure up to $50 billion in low interest government loans this month that would pay to modernize plants and help struggling US car makers build more fuel-efficient vehicles.
The situation is growing dire after months of tumbling sales, high gasoline prices and consumers' abandoning profitable US trucks and sport utility vehicles.
Industry leaders have argued that the loan guarantees are not a government bailout ::) because it would hasten production of fuel-efficient vehicles and reduce dependence on imported oil.
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Sept 7 2008 The Bush administration, acting to avert the potential for major financial turmoil, says the federal government was taking control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says ,"We must serve our Chinese masters or they will pull out all their money and we will be fucked!"[/u]
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September 6, 2008
Regulators on Friday shut down Silver State Bank, saying the Nevada bank failed because of losses on soured loans, mainly in commercial real estate and land development.
It was the 11th failure this year of a federally insured bank.
Nevada regulators closed Silver State and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was appointed receiver of the bank, based in Henderson, Nev.
Andrew K. McCain, a son of Republican presidential nominee John McCain, sat on the boards of Silver State Bank and of its parent, Silver State Bancorp. Andrew McCain also was a member of the bank's audit committee, responsible for oversight of the company's accounting.
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September 6, 2008
Andrew K. McCain, a son of Republican presidential nominee John McCain, sat on the boards of Silver State Bank and of its parent, Silver State Bancorp. Andrew McCain also was a member of the bank's audit committee, responsible for oversight of the company's accounting.
Like father, like son.
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Sept 7 2008 The Bush administration, acting to avert the potential for major financial turmoil, says the federal government was taking control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the actions were being taken because "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe."
with the fed taking over control of fannie and freddie this weekend, expect a big short cover/suckers rally today.
NT
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Taxpayers take on trillions in risk in Fannie, Freddie takeover
Sept.8 2008 The unprecedented federal takeover of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae announced on Sunday is a bold attempt to stabilize financial markets and restore the faltering housing market, but it thrusts trillions of dollars of risk directly onto taxpayers' shoulders.
the new face of "Free Markets" and "Capitalism" in America. ;)
NT
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with the fed taking over control of fannie and freddie this weekend, expect a big short cover/suckers rally today.
NT
U.S. Stocks Rise, Joining Global Rally, on Fannie, Freddie Plan
Sept. 8 U.S. stocks climbed, adding to a rally across Europe and Asia, on speculation the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will stabilize the global financial system battered by $507 billion in credit losses.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index surged 25.48 points, or 2.1 percent, to 1,267.79, its steepest gain since Aug. 8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 289.78, or 2.6 percent, to 11,510.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 13.88, or 0.6 percent, to 2,269.76. Almost three stocks climbed for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.
NT
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Lets face it, we were going down and if it wasnt for all the manipulation, and bailing out and on and on, America would be crippled right now but these are all band aid solutions, just putting the problem off for another day. How many more holes can these guys plug before the whole thing just blows?
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September 9, 2008
A day after the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac helped ease investors' nervousness about the housing and financial markets, markets were roiled anew by worries about the health of Lehman Brothers Holdings. :o
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by about 280 points to around 11,230. Other indexes saw even sharper declines. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.7% to around 1233. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.1% to roughly 2222. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks shed 2.7%.
NT
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neurotoxin do you have any theory of why metals are performing so poorly right now
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neurotoxin do you have any theory of why metals are performing so poorly right now
IMO, metals and oil are being sold off to prop up the worthless dollar, and lower fuel costs before the Nov. election.
NT
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IMO, metals and oil are being sold off to prop up the worthless dollar, and lower fuel costs before the Nov. election.
NT
What is the logic behind making things better before the election? Is it to foster an acceptance for the new president?
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Sept 7 2008 The Bush administration, acting to avert the potential for major financial turmoil, says the federal government was taking control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says the actions were being taken because "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are so large and so interwoven in our financial system that a failure of either of them would cause great turmoil in our financial markets here at home and around the globe."
gbers, here's the real reason:
the Fed was forced to buy freddie and fannie because countries like China bought billions of our mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that are now worthless. if the companies went bankrupt, China would get nothing in return.
NEVER piss off your banker. ;)
NT
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Stocks tumbled Tuesday, nearly erasing the previous session's big gains, after fresh concerns about the stability of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
NT
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Senator Bunning Says Paulson Acts Like Socialist, Should Resign
Senator Jim Bunning said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, by rescuing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is acting like China's finance minister and both Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke should step down.
``I sincerely believe that Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke should resign,'' said Bunning, a Republican from Kentucky on the Senate Banking Committee. ``They have taken the free market out of the free market.''
``We no longer have a free market in the United States, we have a government controlled free market,'' Bunning said in an interview. Paulson, a former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., `is acting like the minister of finance in China.''
Wow, a senator that makes some sense. It's unconstitutional to be doing this.
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Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) will be removed from the S&P 500 Index after Wednesday's close of trading. Fannie and Freddie no longer meet the minimum market capitalization to be eligible for Index listing.
NT
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it's true.
This sunday, we'll have lehman and ford receiving quiet govt donations of 100 and 50 bill, right?
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right now manipulation is all the Fed has to keep this market afloat.
that, and hank paulson. ;)
NT
How long can the Feds keep the market afloat?
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How long can the Feds keep the market afloat?
they can't. they just slow the markets downward progression in an orderly fashion to avoid panic selloffs. only if the world markets sour on our stock market, will we crash ( bigtime.)
not until we straighten out the banking/financial crisis, will the market turn bullish.
also, right now the Fed is locked in a proverbial corner. if they don't bailout bear, freddie, fannie, lehman, etc. China stands to lose 1 Trillion+ dollars in Mortgage Backed Security's (MBS) sold to them by these US companies.
considering China lends the US 2 Billion dollars per day for our deficit alone. not including 12 Billion dollars per month for financing the iraq war. do you think they would embrace losing 1 Trillion+ while helping the US stay afloat ? not on your life.
the "richest nation in the world"......is broke.
THAT is the reason the Fed. is taking over privately held companies.
NT
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Sept. 10 Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., reporting the biggest loss in its 158-year history, said it will sell a majority stake in its asset-management unit, spin off real-estate holdings and cut the dividend in an effort to shore up capital and regain investor confidence.
Lehman fell almost 7 percent in New York trading after posting a $3.9 billion third-quarter loss on $5.6 billion of writedowns, worse than the $2.2 billion loss analysts had predicted.
NT
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who's next after Lehman ?
Washington Mutual Inc. shares slumped 30% on Wednesday as concerns about the ability of the nation's largest thrift to survive the credit crunch increased.
NT
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who's next after Lehman ?
Washington Mutual Inc. shares slumped 30% on Wednesday as concerns about the ability of the nation's largest thrift to survive the credit crunch increased.
NT
hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha ha
this is awesome!
hahahahahahahahahahahaha
burn baby, burn
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GBers, right now every "rally" you see is pure short covering.
No new money is entering this market.
NT
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(http://www.runtogold.com/Run_To_Gold/Run_To_Gold_Blog/Entries/2008/8/15_No_Sausage_files/apmexaug15p1.png)(http://www.runtogold.com/Run_To_Gold/Run_To_Gold_Blog/Entries/2008/8/15_No_Sausage_files/apmexaug15p2.png)
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GBers, right now every "rally" you see is pure short covering.
No new money is entering this market.
NT
U.S. stocks surged higher in the final moments of trade Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average wiping out a 150-point deficit to stage a triple digit rally.
typical volatility in a Bear market.
NT
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The US trade deficit rose nearly six percent in July to 62.2 billion dollars on surging oil and Chinese imports, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
The July gap was wider than the consensus forecast for an increase to 58.0 billion dollars.
NT
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GBers, today was your typical bear market trading day. market down 150, then up 150. lots of volatility and programmed trading. crazy market, for professionals only imo.
anyway, since this thread started in Nov. 07 the market has performed as i expected. throughout the year we've rallied many, many times and the Dow is still 3,000 points LOWER. so until this trend changes, we don't. daily market fluctuations are to be expected as we patiently head lower. drip, drip, drip.
when the market finally turns positive, i'll be ready and waiting. 8)
NT
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The credit crisis took a heavier toll on banks in the second quarter of the year: The number of troubled banks rose 30%, to 117, the highest in five years, from 90 in the first quarter, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said.
The surge in the FDIC's "problem banks" comes as the industry grapples with ballooning bad consumer loans and shrinking profits. Historically, about one in eight banks on the problem list have eventually failed.
The FDIC also said that in the latest quarter, banks' profits plunged 87%, to $5 billion, compared with the same quarter a year ago.
NT
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Fannie Mae (FNM) is now a penny stock, trading at 75 cents. That includes another 3.86% decline this morning (- 3 cents). Last October FNM was $67.39.
NT
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Commerce Department: Retail sales fell 0.3% in August. Economists were anticipating gains of 0.2% to 0.4%.
NT
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August foreclosures hit another record high
Foreclosures hit another record high in August: 304,000 homes were in default and 91,000 families lost their houses
NT
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This is one hell of a ride.
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The investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. spent Thursday energetically shopping itself to potential buyers -- among them Bank of America Corp. -- just a day after insisting it had found a way to patch up its massive real-estate-related losses.
Given the firm's deep financial troubles, a deal of any sort is far from certain, according to people familiar with the situation. In addition, prospective buyers, which also could include Barclays PLC, would likely want the U.S. government to help shield them from future losses from any such transaction, these people said, as happened in March, when Bear Stearns Cos. was forced into a deal to be acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. In that deal, the federal government agreed to absorb as much as $29 billion in potential losses
The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department have been working with Lehman to help resolve the bank's troubles, including talking to potential buyers, according to people familiar with the matter. Federal officials currently aren't expected to structure a bailout along the lines of the Bear transaction or this past weekend's rescue of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Resolving the mess at Lehman could help stem a wave of pessimism that the U.S. financial system faces the prospect of much deeper turmoil because of bad loans and the weak economy. Late Thursday, Washington Mutual Inc. rushed out some details about its third-quarter results in hopes of ending a 34% slide in its stock price so far this week
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York held an emergency meeting Friday night with top Washington policymakers and major financial institutions to discuss the future of Lehman Brothers.
The meeting, which was attended by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, was held at the offices of New York Federal Reserve Bank president Timothy Geithner. The meeting was confirmed by Fed spokeswoman Michelle Smith.
Smith refused to disclose what financial institutions participated in the meeting or whether the group had reached any conclusion over how to resolve the crisis facing Lehman Brothers.
GBers, lehman traded at 64.00 per share in Feb. 2008, it now trades at 3.00 per share.
during the time period between Feb.08 - Sept 08, guess how many Wall Street analysts advised the public/small investor to SELL this stock ?
if you guessed ZERO, you'd be correct. institutions and insiders quickly dumped their shares, leaving the small investor holding worthless paper. to this very day, there are still no sell recommendations on lehman stock.
NT
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Why would you listen to analysts? Remember it's a game. It may not be scrupulous, but it's not illegal. Learn to play the game and you get to experience one of the best feeling in the world - taking money from people that are trying to steal from you. Talk about an owning!
And don't forget that the market will turn before all the bad news is out, usually when things look the bleakest. Don't get caught up in all the bearish sentiment. Keep your eye on the trend and believe in it. Charts don't lie.
ok, Bodi.
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How does a company lose 99% of it's value in less than a a year?
I mean, the only way I see it is that Lehman's stock was way overvalued and eventually the shareholders got a hold of the game that was being played with them and sold their shares. I believe that if a company is strong enough and really not weak it can survive these huge loses, like UBS and the like. It's the companies that had ZERO cash that are a mistery. How does something like this make it through the auditors or the risk management department?
It's the worst pyramid scheme I've ever seen in my life.
And to think I almost became a Lehman employee a couple of years ago...
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Greenspan: This Is The Worst Economy I've Ever Seen
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan offered a woeful outlook of America's economic situation on Sunday, saying the crisis with the country's financial institutions was as dire as he had ever seen in his long career, and predicting that one or more of those institutions would likely collapse in the near future.
"Oh, by far," Greenspan said, when asked if the situation was the worst he had seen in his career. "There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen and it still is not resolved and still has a way to go and, indeed, it will continue to be a corrosive force until the price of homes in the United States stabilizes. That will induce a series of events around the globe which will stabilize the system."
NT
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Greenspan thinks things are bad.... must be time to get back into equities.
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Smith refused to disclose what financial institutions participated in the meeting or whether the group had reached any conclusion over how to resolve the crisis facing Lehman Brothers.
Attending the emergency session at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York were Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and New York Fed President Timothy F. Geithner, federal officials confirmed. They were joined by chief executives including John Thain of Merrill Lynch, John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan Chase and Vikram Pandit of Citigroup, sources said.
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U.S. Stock Futures Tumble on Concern Lehman to File Bankruptcy
Sept. 15 U.S. stock-index futures tumbled on concern a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy will add to banks' $514 billion of subprime-related losses.
Lehman, until last week the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, is preparing a bankruptcy filing after takeover talks with Bank of America Corp. and Barclays collapsed, said a person with direct knowledge of the firm's plans.
NT
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U.S. Stock Futures Tumble on Concern Lehman to File Bankruptcy
Sept. 15 U.S. stock-index futures tumbled on concern a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy will add to banks' $514 billion of subprime-related losses.
Lehman, until last week the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, is preparing a bankruptcy filing after takeover talks with Bank of America Corp. and Barclays collapsed, said a person with direct knowledge of the firm's plans.
NT
NT, if they go bankrupt do you foresee a run on the banks?
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NT, if they go bankrupt do you foresee a run on the banks?
on all banks ? no.
although bank/financial stocks will get PUNISHED when lehman files bankruptcy. (along with the overall market)
NT
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GBers, STAY AWAY from this market. we continue to head lower IMO.
DO NOT listen to TerminalPutz or FatAlex23, they know absolutely nothing.
NT
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GBers, do not be surprised if the Fed lowers interest rates (very soon) in an emergency move to save this imploding market.
NT
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gbers, the enormity of our current banking problems are NOT being told to the public. i cannot stress this enough.
IMO, it's imperative you understand and stay out of harms way.
NT
U.S. stock futures point to bruising open
Sept 16 U.S. stock futures pointed toward a bruising open Monday after a tumultuous weekend in which Lehman Brothers Holdings was forced into bankruptcy after failing to secure a buyout, Merrill Lynch reached a deal to sell itself to Bank of America for $50 billion and American International Group reportedly asked the Federal Reserve for $40 billion.
NT
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neurotoxin how is the dollar up this morning? how long can they keep up this manipulation if thats what is happening here?
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U.S. stock futures point to bruising open
Sept 16 U.S. stock futures pointed toward a bruising open Monday after a tumultuous weekend in which Lehman Brothers Holdings was forced into bankruptcy after failing to secure a buyout, Merrill Lynch reached a deal to sell itself to Bank of America for $50 billion and American International Group reportedly asked the Federal Reserve for $40 billion.
i had no idea things were this bad. ;)
NT
There will likely be a decent sized rally at some point after the initial drop this morning. The smart investors with spare cash will seize on the bargains that will abound today. You simply have to have knowledge of what you're buying with a focus on fundamentals. Stay the heck away from financials and companies with any ties to the mortgage crisis. Days like this are the days to buy, while the panickers cash out.
Gold is a good play today, in my opinion.
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you're correct, if we don't break the July low,(1,200) shorts will cover.
NT
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GBers, keep in mind i voted for Bush. (which i greatly regret)
i'm simply stating the unbridled truth.
Please explain in DETAIL how Bush destroyed this economy. Please give us anything he signed into LAW that adversely affected this economy and forced it to this downgrade. Make a case that this is Bush's fault and not the investment banks' own fault or even the mortgage companies' carelessness.
In addition to that, maybe you want to throw in how Obama's plan to raise taxes will help the situation. I would like to see you spin that in a positive light.
No, don't ask me to explain myself. You made the accusation about the Bush administration hurting the economy. You seem to forget that up until now, unemployment figures were way less than at anytime during the 1990s and the market was just as strong. You also seem to forget that the economy slowing down greatly in Clinton's last 2 years. Remember the tech bubble bursting? That was one factor that helped get Bush elected in the first place.
Please give a more detailed account supported by facts rather than mere opinion. Thank you.
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read the thread kid. i cover the details.
NT
Can I get the cliff notes?
I'm still vague as to how Bush did it myself. GDP is actually up... Unemployment is still lower than before Nafta and what not... I'm just trying to figure it out.
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Canada Reacts To U.S. Market Turmoil
Monday September 15, 2008
CityNews.ca Staff
(http://www.citynews.ca/images/2008-09/sep1508-lehmangetty.jpg)
Photo credit: Chris Hondros/Getty Images
The stock markets in the U.S. are having a down day with the sudden failure of brokerage firm Lehman Bros., the latest giant to go down in a heap down south. Unlike Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week, the federal government has no intention of stepping in, leading to the disturbing sight of employees at the 158-year-old firm packing up their belongings and leaving the company they've called home for so many decades.
That was followed by the equally astounding news that giant Merrill Lynch was being taken over by the Bank of America.
The impact at home has been immediate, too, with the TSX plunging nearly 300 points by noon. The reaction on Bay St. ranges from worry to certainty that this latest problem is just a temporary blip on the financial map in a country that's having hard times.
"I was surprised by this," admits Mohit Arora. "Actually it's going to impact the Canadian economy pretty badly as well because I think Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, they have operations in Canada."
But Chris Volarinha thinks the market will shake itself off and make a comeback. "I believe that is going to be great turnaround and better days to come as well. But with the way that things have been going down with the write-downs as well, it's just another black eye to the financial world right now."
It's all the result of the collapse of the subprime mortgage down south. What's that?
"The subprime ... is a riskier type of mortgage. The banks in the U.S. and investment companies were looking to expand the real estate market, so they started selling mortgages to people who, under normal circumstances, wouldn't get credit," explains 680 News business specialist Mike Eppel.
"There was limited paperwork, limited oversight, in some cases fraud and things were fine as long as real estate prices continued to go up.
"Then the market started to slow down. Mortgages started to collapse, started to feed on itself. The credit market dried up and Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns earlier this year, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, they were all caught up in it ... It froze up the credit markets and has slowed down the global economy."
Some - like the Bank of American - are moving in and making a killing. But others are getting hit hard.
"There's so much wealth destruction," agrees Eppel. "You look at some of these banks on Wall Street which were worth hundreds of billions of dollars just a year ago. They're seeing their market values cut in half. So in the short term, a lot of pain. Longer term, there will of course be wise investors and winners."
But for those losing money and their jobs, getting to that 'longer term' won't be half the fun.
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Average guy has started to get into the news and i am hearing every average guy around me telling me how Lehman fucked up.
Not to be offensive but it seems to me that too many retail side bears - every average joker is now talking about the end of the world. Again no offence to people like 240 who are passionate about the news but to professionals - we love it when retail is on the other side of the move. Really you guys know very little about the current situation no matter how much you keep reading the news.
We have to be close to a bottom or at-least a temporary bottom. Too many retailers getting involved.
Again no offence to anyone guys - obviously someone involved in the markets day to day is going to have a little edge on the average guy.
I am looking at 1180 ES as a level for a base.
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Can I get the cliff notes?
I'm still vague as to how Bush did it myself. GDP is actually up... Unemployment is still lower than before Nafta and what not... I'm just trying to figure it out.
You're an idiot if you think GDP is any indicator of the health of the economy. GDP tracks how much was spent. I can go out and borrow for consumption which raises the GDP, are we better off for it? No, it's Laughable.
You want an indicator of how the economy is doing? Turn off the fucking TV and look around you. Record # houses for sale, companies laying off, coworkers losing their jobs, Massive loss of purchasing power, banks collapsing.
It could be raining outside, but idiots like you will host an outdoor BBQ because the government weatherman said it's bright and sunny.
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You're an idiot if you think GDP is any indicator of the health of the economy. GDP tracks how much was spent. I can go out and borrow for consumption which raises the GDP, are we better off for it? No, it's Laughable.
You want an indicator of how the economy is doing? Turn off the fucking TV and look around you. Record # houses for sale, companies laying off, coworkers losing their jobs, Massive loss of purchasing power, banks collapsing.
It could be raining outside, but idiots like you will host an outdoor BBQ because the government weatherman said it's bright and sunny.
Hey smart guy... I'm looking at numbers. End of story. Are people losing their jobs? Maybe... but what's keeping them from getting new ones?
The fact they're unskilled or unqualified? Is that Bush's fault? People buying houses they couldn't really afford? Again... That's the Bush's fault how?
While the dollar may be falling, it makes it cheaper to export goods... As long as US corporations aren't buying over seas companies... The falling value of the dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Either way... How did Bush do it?
So again... Where's the "numbers" that show that Bush did something to bring this?
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While the dollar may be falling, it makes it cheaper to export goods... As long as US corporations aren't buying over seas companies... The falling value of the dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing.
A cheaper dollar is only beneficial to an export market.
The only thing America is exporting these days is war and American jobs, ...so in a sense... business is good. ::)
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Hey smart guy... I'm looking at numbers. End of story. Are people losing their jobs? Maybe... but what's keeping them from getting new ones?
The fact they're unskilled or unqualified? Is that Bush's fault? People buying houses they couldn't really afford? Again... That's the Bush's fault how?
While the dollar may be falling, it makes it cheaper to export goods... As long as US corporations aren't buying over seas companies... The falling value of the dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Either way... How did Bush do it?
So again... Where's the "numbers" that show that Bush did something to bring this?
Yes it is Bush's fault.
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The only thing America is exporting these days is war and American jobs, ...so in a sense... business is good. ::)
Exactly.
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Hey smart guy... I'm looking at numbers. End of story. Are people losing their jobs? Maybe... but what's keeping them from getting new ones?
The fact they're unskilled or unqualified? Is that Bush's fault? People buying houses they couldn't really afford? Again... That's the Bush's fault how?
While the dollar may be falling, it makes it cheaper to export goods... As long as US corporations aren't buying over seas companies... The falling value of the dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Either way... How did Bush do it?
So again... Where's the "numbers" that show that Bush did something to bring this?
Cost of a Corvette = $55,000
Cost in Gold @ 785/oz = 70oz of Gold
70 oz of Gold in 1933 @ 20.67/oz = $1,446
That means today, $53,554 of $55,000 corvette is INFLATION
Yeah, a weakening dollar is not a bad thing...
Idiot.
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Cost of a Corvette = $55,000
Cost in Gold @ 785/oz = 70oz of Gold
70 oz of Gold in 1933 @ 20.67/oz = $1,446
That means today, $53,554 of $55,000 corvette is INFLATION
Yeah, a weakening dollar is not a bad thing...
Idiot.
You're comparing inflation from 1933 to a car that didn't even exist then.
You're the idiot.
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You're comparing inflation from 1933 to a car that didn't even exist then.
You're the idiot.
Doesn't matter what the item is. I just used a corvette for illustration. The point is the devaluation of the money.
this is not necessarily a bad thing according to you... You watch TV well my friend, and you a good job of Parroting the talking heads.
Care to dispute my math?
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Doesn't matter what the item is. I just used a corvette for illustration. The point is the devaluation of the money.
this is not necessarily a bad thing according to you... You watch TV well my friend, and you Parrot the talking heads very well.
Care to dispute my math?
The math, no... the fact that it's bad... Yes.
Inflation is a natural part of every economy and it is a reason for a lot of economic growth as well.
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The math, no... the fact that it's bad... Yes.
Inflation is a natural part of every economy and it is a reason for a lot of economic growth as well.
What economic growth? Higher GDP from "borrowing" home equity that never really existed?
We had no growth, we had an explosion of debt based financing from cheap borrowed money.
Sooner or later you have to produce something. What do we produce? What do you buy on a daily basis that is Made in USA?
If you really believe that Inflation is a "natural" part of an economy, then I'm going to piss on your leg and tell you it's raining.
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i want to take my money out of my 401k , all i do is lose money in that shit ...what should i do getbig millionaires ??
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What economic growth? Higher GDP from "borrowing" home equity that never really existed?
We had no growth, we had an explosion of debt based financing from cheap borrowed money.
Sooner or later you have to produce something. What do we produce? What do you buy on a daily basis that is Made in USA?
If you really believe that Inflation is a "natural" part of an economy, then I'm going to piss on your leg and tell you it's raining.
I guess the guys at Forbes don't know more than you do.
http://www.investopedia.com/university/inflation/inflation5.asp
Inflation: Conclusion
Print this Article
After reading this tutorial, you should have some insight into inflation and its effects. For starters, you now know that inflation isn't intrinsically good or bad. Like so many things in life, the impact of inflation depends on your personal situation.
Some points to remember:
* Inflation is a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services.
* When inflation goes up, there is a decline in the purchasing power of money.
* Variations on inflation include deflation, hyperinflation and stagflation.
* Two theories as to the cause of inflation are demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.
* When there is unanticipated inflation, creditors lose, people on a fixed-income lose, "menu costs" go up, uncertainty reduces spending and exporters aren't as competitive.
* Lack of inflation (or deflation) is not necessarily a good thing.
* Inflation is measured with a price index.
* The two main groups of price indexes that measure inflation are the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Indexes.
* Interest rates are decided in the U.S. by the Federal Reserve. Inflation plays a large role in the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates.
* In the long term, stocks are good protection against inflation.
* Inflation is a serious problem for fixed income investors. It's important to understand the difference between nominal interest rates and real interest rates.
* Inflation-indexed securities offer protection against inflation but offer low returns.
As to your question... The US does create Intellectual Property... That property is very real and very valuable.
All of these people who are losing their jobs and deciding to not learn a new skill that has VALUE are the ones to fault for having no job.
Not Bush.
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GBers, no surprise to us.
U.S. stocks slammed; Dow industrials shed 504 points
Sept. 15, 2008
U.S. stocks tanked on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit with its worst point and percentage drop in nearly seven years after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy and insurance giant American International Group Inc. scurried to raise capital even as its market value was axed by distraught investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 504.48 points, or 4.4%, to 10,917.51.
NT
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GBers, no surprise to us.
U.S. stocks slammed; Dow industrials shed 504 points
Sept. 15, 2008
U.S. stocks tanked on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit with its worst point and percentage drop in nearly seven years after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy and insurance giant American International Group Inc. scurried to raise capital even as its market value was axed by distraught investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 504.48 points, or 4.4%, to 10,917.51.
NT
Do you think America will be bankrupt in five years?
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Do you think America will be bankrupt in five years?
Our government went bankrupt in 1933 bro.
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I guess the guys at Forbes don't know more than you do.
http://www.investopedia.com/university/inflation/inflation5.asp
Inflation: Conclusion
Print this Article
After reading this tutorial, you should have some insight into inflation and its effects. For starters, you now know that inflation isn't intrinsically good or bad. Like so many things in life, the impact of inflation depends on your personal situation.
Some points to remember:
* Inflation is a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services.
* When inflation goes up, there is a decline in the purchasing power of money.
* Variations on inflation include deflation, hyperinflation and stagflation.
* Two theories as to the cause of inflation are demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation.
* When there is unanticipated inflation, creditors lose, people on a fixed-income lose, "menu costs" go up, uncertainty reduces spending and exporters aren't as competitive.
* Lack of inflation (or deflation) is not necessarily a good thing.
* Inflation is measured with a price index.
* The two main groups of price indexes that measure inflation are the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Indexes.
* Interest rates are decided in the U.S. by the Federal Reserve. Inflation plays a large role in the Fed's decisions regarding interest rates.
* In the long term, stocks are good protection against inflation.
* Inflation is a serious problem for fixed income investors. It's important to understand the difference between nominal interest rates and real interest rates.
* Inflation-indexed securities offer protection against inflation but offer low returns.
As to your question... The US does create Intellectual Property... That property is very real and very valuable.
All of these people who are losing their jobs and deciding to not learn a new skill that has VALUE are the ones to fault for having no job.
Not Bush.
Wow more useful information in this single post of yours than in the hundreds of "doomsday" predictions of the original poster.
Now is great time to look for bargains.
As for those who that take joy in seeing market go down 500+ points because they invested themselves and their opinions in near worthless cynicism. Be ashamed, monkeys predict doom and gloom, smart investors and analysts find the value of stocks in all conditions and over the long term make nice gains and profits.
I myself love when the market over corrects to the negative, it usually provides the wiser investor better opportunities for the future. Look how many plummets happened in the Clinton years that we all (hopefully) made money off of.
BUY LOW...SELL HIGH! Today provides us all many opportunities, would you be capable of recognizing them and are you willing to accept the risk vs. reward?
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Wow more useful information in this single post of yours than in the hundreds of "doomsday" predictions of the original poster.
Now is great time to look for bargains.
As for those who that take joy in seeing market go down 500+ points because they invested themselves and their opinions in near worthless cynicism. Be ashamed, monkeys predict doom and gloom, smart investors and analysts find the value of stocks in all conditions and over the long term make nice gains and profits.
I myself love when the market over corrects to the negative, it usually provides the wiser investor better opportunities for the future. Look how many plummets happened in the Clinton years that we all (hopefully) made money off of.
BUY LOW...SELL HIGH! Today provides us all many opportunities, would you be capable of recognizing them and are you willing to accept the risk vs. reward?
I guess my point is that no matter what direction your political leaning is... to blame the economy on Bush is wrong.
Neither party will balance the budget... Neither will curb spending... The difference is one will put us in debt more than the other because one wants to raise taxes and the other does not... Neither will shrink the government.
Is this a problem? Perhaps, but it's certainly not the President's fault.
Also, what we are seeing are common items in a capitalist economy... The truth is that the economy while not as good as it was in the late 90s, is not as bad as people are making it out to be. There is still a lot of opportunity for people to make money if they have a good skill and are intelligent about it.
I'm tired of people saying the middle class is being destroyed... Especially when they destroyed it. The Unions paying people far beyond the value of what they actually provide... and when your job is gone... Instead of going out and getting a real skill, they just sit and bitch.
I know 2 guys who had 15 years to use up their GI Bills from when they served... They didn't get an education, they got factory jobs, and if their jobs are gone, they will bitch about it and say it's wrong.
I don't know what planet you guys live on, but when I was born I wasn't promised anything except that you gotta work. No free lunch. If my skill becomes obsolete, I'll get a new one.
There is no guarantee that your job will still be valued in the future... That's why we have a lot of auto mechanics and not a lot of blacksmiths.
Why I work in the IT field and not the Zeppelin field... The world changes and you have to change with it.
If someone doesn't have a job and they complain to me... They're talking to the wrong person. Especially if they have opportunity and squander it.
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Fed Adds Most Reserves Since 9/11 as Banks Hoard Cash
Sept. 15 The Federal Reserve added $70 billion in reserves to the banking system, the most since the September 2001 terrorist attacks, to reverse a surge in borrowing costs sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
NT
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Mark, we're bankrupt now.
NT
Let me re-phase.
How long before the Feds admit that the country is bankrupt?
How long till other countries stop lending us money?
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Let me re-phase.
How long before the Feds admit that the country is bankrupt?
How long till other countries stop lending us money?
1) never.
2) as long as China etc. continue selling us their products and maintain a large trade gap with the US....they'll keep us afloat for some time.
BTW, a great buying opportunity awaits those who are patient. ;D
NT
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There will likely be a decent sized rally at some point after the initial drop this morning. The smart investors with spare cash will seize on the bargains that will abound today. You simply have to have knowledge of what you're buying with a focus on fundamentals. Stay the heck away from financials and companies with any ties to the mortgage crisis. Days like this are the days to buy, while the panickers cash out.
Gold is a good play today, in my opinion.
Well, after a 500 point drop the rally I anticipated never materialized. ::)
I was right about gold, however! Up thirty-five bucks! :)
Gold price rallies to $785
7 hours ago
LONDON (AFP) — Gold prices rebounded Monday as the precious metal won support amid ongoing uncertainty stemming from the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, dealers said.
On the London Bullion Market, the price of gold rose to 785.70 dollars per ounce, from 750.25 late on Friday.
In contrast, crude oil prices slumped Monday as investors feared that slower economic growth would dampen future energy demand.
Gold, which is used in jewellery, dentistry and electronics, is widely regarded as a safe store of value amid economic gloom.
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1) never.
2) as long as China etc. continue selling us their products and maintain a large trade gap with the US....they'll keep us afloat for some time.
BTW, a great buying opportunity awaits those who are patient. ;D
NT
Well, I don't think we are bankrupt.
Sounds like we have a lot of credit! ;)
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GBers, the market now sits at the Dec 2004 levels. in the past 10 months we have given back nearly 4 yrs of gains. so to anyone who listened and heeded my warnings, congratulations !
NT
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Gold is a good play today, in my opinion.
Gold is always good. ;D
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I guess my point is that no matter what direction your political leaning is... to blame the economy on Bush is wrong.
Neither party will balance the budget... Neither will curb spending... The difference is one will put us in debt more than the other because one wants to raise taxes and the other does not... Neither will shrink the government.
Is this a problem? Perhaps, but it's certainly not the President's fault.
Also, what we are seeing are common items in a capitalist economy... The truth is that the economy while not as good as it was in the late 90s, is not as bad as people are making it out to be. There is still a lot of opportunity for people to make money if they have a good skill and are intelligent about it.
I'm tired of people saying the middle class is being destroyed... Especially when they destroyed it. The Unions paying people far beyond the value of what they actually provide... and when your job is gone... Instead of going out and getting a real skill, they just sit and bitch.
I know 2 guys who had 15 years to use up their GI Bills from when they served... They didn't get an education, they got factory jobs, and if their jobs are gone, they will bitch about it and say it's wrong.
I don't know what planet you guys live on, but when I was born I wasn't promised anything except that you gotta work. No free lunch. If my skill becomes obsolete, I'll get a new one.
There is no guarantee that your job will still be valued in the future... That's why we have a lot of auto mechanics and not a lot of blacksmiths.
Why I work in the IT field and not the Zeppelin field... The world changes and you have to change with it.
If someone doesn't have a job and they complain to me... They're talking to the wrong person. Especially if they have opportunity and squander it.
Yea to be honest Tu I agree with almost everything you said, it's why I like the libertarian party and many Ron Paul positions. The problem is guys like Paul had a chance then they want to use the Gold Standard like Gold is worth something OTHER than it's PERCEIVED Value...like the paper dollar. Ventura says fire can't melt steel like that fat bitch Rosy "Fat" O'Donnell ...and on and on the bullshit goes.
There is many opportunities for a down market for those wise enough to position themselves prior to it happening. I wish I had a stronger cash position, but with my positioning still being strong I have a decision to make come Dec/Jan on where to put it.
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The pressure on American International Group reached fevered pitch on Monday night as the troubled insurer was hit by a series of credit rating downgrades.
The cuts could prove deadly to AIG, the nation's largest insurance company, which is scrambling to raise much-needed capital.
Late Monday night, Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services each said they had lowered their ratings.
A few hours earlier, Fitch Rating had also downgraded AIG, saying the company's ability to raise cash is "extremely limited" because of its plummeting stock price, widening yields on its debt, and difficult capital market conditions.
The downgrades will make it more expensive for AIG to issue debt and harder for it to regain the confidence of investors.
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Wreckage from a massive crisis on Wall Street could prompt the Federal Reserve to do an about face and once again cut a key interest rate this week or possibly later this year, economists said Monday
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Wreckage from a massive crisis on Wall Street could prompt the Federal Reserve to do an about face and once again cut a key interest rate this week or possibly later this year, economists said Monday
i agree BD, but lowering interest rates will accomplish nothing. consumers are unable to access money due to the credit crunch/higher lending standards.
IMO, just more psychological BS from the Fed.
NT
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GBers, anyone following this thread is NOT surprised by the unfolding events. i warned about this looming crisis long ago.
NT
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US investment bank Goldman Sachs has reported a 70% fall in third-quarter earnings as financial markets continue to be hit by the credit crunch.
The Wall Street giant revealed net income of $845m (£473m), down from $2.85bn a year before. Net revenue fell to $6.04bn from $12.3bn.
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U.S. Stocks Advance on Expectations Fed Will Rescue AIG
Sept. 16 U.S. stocks rose, helping the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rebound from its steepest drop in seven years, as expectations grew the Federal Reserve may rescue American International Group Inc. from collapse.
NT
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Typical idiots who looks at the market by judging certain indices instead of being a wise investor. GetBig investors there are thousands of opportunities to invest in stocks or mutual funds that have performed exceptionally this year.
Certain idiots like Neurotoxin has invested in failure, demise, and hopelessness. He is so far invested in failure, that reading his posts show exactly how proud (incorrectly I might add) he is of the "PERCEIVED CRASH". While this moron is partially right (the commonality of liars) about market numbers he is only referencing certain indices. Plenty of money to be made with wise investing. Do your research or hire an analyst/broker and you will find financial success. Listen to this idiot's "doom and gloom" predictions and you will see for yourself. Again, his reputation and self are invested failure not success.
Research Research Research!!!
Just a snipit: (as Barack for No-Change would say)
Fund Name Symbol Return
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret Y QRAYX 43.84%
Rydex Commodities Strategy H RYMBX 43.60%
Rydex Commodities Strategy A RYMEX 43.59%
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret A QRAAX 43.19%
Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy Instl GCCIX 43.12%
ProFunds UltraShort Japan Inv UKPIX 42.73%
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Typical idiots who looks at the market by judging certain indices instead of being a wise investor. GetBig investors there are thousands of opportunities to invest in stocks or mutual funds that have performed exceptionally this year.
Certain idiots like Neurotoxin has invested in failure, demise, and hopelessness. He is so far invested in failure, that reading his posts show exactly how proud (incorrectly I might add) he is of the "PERCEIVED CRASH". While this moron is partially right (the commonality of liars) about market numbers he is only referencing certain indices. Plenty of money to be made with wise investing. Do your research or hire an analyst/broker and you will find financial success. Listen to this idiot's "doom and gloom" predictions and you will see for yourself. Again, his reputation and self are invested failure not success.
Research Research Research!!!
Just a snipit: (as Barack for No-Change would say)
Fund Name Symbol Return
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret Y QRAYX 43.84%
Rydex Commodities Strategy H RYMBX 43.60%
Rydex Commodities Strategy A RYMEX 43.59%
Oppenheimer Commodity Strat Total Ret A QRAAX 43.19%
Goldman Sachs Commodity Strategy Instl GCCIX 43.12%
ProFunds UltraShort Japan Inv UKPIX 42.73%
You are so into yourself, I think you are missing the big picture.
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Wreckage from a massive crisis on Wall Street could prompt the Federal Reserve to do an about face and once again cut a key interest rate this week or possibly later this year, economists said Monday
The US central bank has left interest rates unchanged at 2%, citing inflation concerns and rejecting calls for a cut. While the Federal Reserve had been tipped to leave rates on hold, analysts said a cut looked more likely after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The Fed has sought to soothe nerves and earlier injected $70bn (£39bn) into markets to boost liquidity.
Central banks worldwide have faced the twin threat of quickening inflation and a wider economic slowdown. "The downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern to the committee," the bank's officials said. Michael Wallace, an analyst at Action Economics said: "The Fed's statement largely resisted market pressure for a more substantial capitulation."
He said the assessment was "defiantly set at neutral", in expressing worries about both slowing economic growth and inflation. The decision to leave rates at 2%, as it has been since April, was a unanimous move.
US shares were volatile with the leading Dow Jones Industrial Average down 106 points to 10,811 after the news.
However, it later ended more than 140 points higher at 11,059.02 as investors interpreted the Fed's decision as a sign that the economy was less fragile than some had feared.
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You are so into yourself, I think you are missing the big picture.
Go invest in the big picture if that is your decision. I suggest you look a deeper into investments. Yes the market is volatile and yes many companies are in trouble. That is true in Bull Markets too.
Take a look at how many mutual funds and stocks are doing well and research the reasons why. Money is made when markets are down, they provide better buying opportunities. Much can be made during this real estate downturn too. Think about simple fundamentals...
BUY LOW...SELL HIGH!
Simple? YES!...... but idiots like Neurotoxin are invested in demise and hopelessness.
-
BABABABBOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Classic!!
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guys, Dow 10,800 and S+P 1,200 are important institutional market support levels. as i've stated before, IF we can hold these levels going into the Nov election, it would be a positive for the market and long term buyers.
the financial/bank stocks will ultimately determine when the time is right to enter long again.
i'll keep you posted.
NT
yesterday, we again tested these levels (10,800 and 1,200) and bounced off. with Oil being manipulated lower and the Fed. infusing cash into the banking sector, another short cover rally looks likely.
NT
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gbers, our government just took over the mortgage, (Freddie, Fannie) banking, (Bear, Lehman) and the Insurance industry. (AIG)
is this the new "Capitalism" in the US ?
NT
Fed Readies A.I.G. Loan of $85 Billion for an 80% Stake
The Federal Reserve was close to a deal Tuesday night to take
a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant insurance
company, the American International Group, in exchange for an
$85 billion loan, according to people briefed on the
negotiations.
-
gbers, our government just took over the mortgage, (Freddie, Fannie) banking, (Bear, Lehman) and the Insurance industry. (AIG)
is this the new "Capitalism" in the US ?
NT
Fed Readies A.I.G. Loan of $85 Billion for an 80% Stake
The Federal Reserve was close to a deal Tuesday night to take
a nearly 80 percent stake in the troubled giant insurance
company, the American International Group, in exchange for an
$85 billion loan, according to people briefed on the
negotiations.
The Fed decides some companies are simply too big to fail, bro. In the case of AIG, they are probably right. Unfortunately that money the Fed is lending out (at high interest to discourage future corporate beggars) will also come out of the pockets of taxpayers.
I don't like these corporate behemoths like Citigroup, BoA-Merrill Lynch, etc., for several reasons. But one certain fact is that when they eventually fuck up they will also be deemed "too big to fail."
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The Fed decides some companies are simply too big to fail, bro. In the case of AIG, they are probably right. Unfortunately that money the Fed is lending out (at high interest to discourage future corporate beggars) will also come out of the pockets of taxpayers.
I don't like these corporate behemoths like Citigroup, BoA-Merrill Lynch, etc., for several reasons. But one certain fact is that when they eventually fuck up they will also be deemed "too big to fail."
too big to fail because our bankers (China etc) would cut off funding our goverment.
NT
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too big to fail because our bankers (China etc) would cut off funding our goverment.
NT
Well, in respects to that aspect I disagree. China needs us as much as we need them right now. It would not be in their best interests AT ALL for them to cut us off.
This is a topic I am frankly too lazy/busy to go into detail about on this board. :P
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Well, in respects to that aspect I disagree. China needs us as much as we need them right now. It would not be in their best interests AT ALL for them to cut us off.
This is a topic I am frankly too lazy/busy to go into detail about on this board. :P
I appreciate the change in attitude, please don't pull an Alex and go back to your stupid ways. :)
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Well, in respects to that aspect I disagree. China needs us as much as we need them right now. It would not be in their best interests AT ALL for them to cut us off.
This is a topic I am frankly too lazy/busy to go into detail about on this board. :P
So China "needs" us so they can lend us money to buy their products.
Sounds like the logic I hear coming from TV and politicians. Maybe you should run for office or something?
China can consume their own goods, they do not need us. If anything, they would be worried about the collapse of 1 trillion in US paper they currently hold, they do not need us to buy finance their products on money they lend us.
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Gbers, you'll notice that since TermianlPutz first recommended you buy the funds below on July 30th, the returns have dropped a staggering 30+ %
keep in mind, TPutz omitted from the list the Oil funds he recommended the very same day. as you know, Oil has TANKED since then.
check out the % change in returns since this condescending, piece of shit told you to buy.
as you can see, her posts don't lie!
Notice the 30+% drop AFTER TerminalPutz recommeded you buy on July 30th ?
::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)
Just like the moron Neurotoxin is, HE AGAIN CAN'T PROVE I RECOMMENDED ANYONE TO BUY ANYTHING! I RECOMMEND PEOPLE INVEST.
NT is just like a little kid looking for attention! Here you go sweetheart!
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IMO, metals and oil are being sold off to prop up the worthless dollar, and lower fuel costs before the Nov. election.
NT
Spoken like a economic genius! OH, except you are horribly incorrect about the dollar being worthless.
Shame on you!
-
BTW, since both TerminalPutz and FatAlbert23 have proven themselves completely USELESS in this thread, i will NO LONGER address their "posts."
NT
She has surrendered to the idea he is being stumped.
She lied to all of you and said I made recommendations and couldn't back it up.
I applaud her efforts and she is doing the right thing. Lets see if she is a woman of her word...
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She has surrendered to the idea he is being stumped.
She lied to all of you and said I made recommendations and couldn't back it up.
I applaud her efforts and she is doing the right thing. Lets see is she is a woman of her word...
I got some money and want to lose 30% of it... You have anymore funds you can reccomend?
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I got some money and want to lose 30% of it... You have anymore funds you can reccomend?
HAHAHA! Nice one.
...I don't know your risk tolerance,
I don't know your cash positioning,
I don't know your long term investment goals,
I don't know your short term investment goals,
I don't know what you are currently invested in and I don't know any financial information pertaining to you.
Based off these considerations, I NEVER RECOMMEND STOCKS, BONDS, or MUTUAL FUNDS or any other SEPCIFIC investement vehicles.
-
SS, how's the market performing today ? ;)
NT
GetBig readers: Clearly from this post by NT you can see how happy and invested in demise, hopelessness, and peril she is.
This is what happens when people like NT INVEST themselves in demise. They revel in it (incorrectly I might add) when they perceive a one day market index going lower.
Day after day, post after post from NT shows that she is not interested in anything more than her cynical subjective opinion.
Her signature represents just as much of a fraud, as she is.
EDIT: after recognizing how worthless her post was she has decided (wisely I might add) to delete the post. I will leave it up for all to see and to further illustrate my point about NT.
Enjoy!
Sorry NT, I got it before you could delete it HAHA!
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GBers, certain Stock Brokers are shitting in their respective pants right now.
NT
-
GBers, certain Stock Brokers are shitting in their respective pants right now. ;D
Hahaaaa !
NT
Yes mine has made a lot of money but it's worth my 21% ROI YTD!
-
Gbers, no real surprise to us, the Dow was DOWN another 453 points. No change in our plan. Markets down (Dow) nearly 4,000 points since the thread started. as i i've said before, the market will dictate when we go from Bearish to Bullish.
TerminalPutz, i'm DONE arguing with you. unless you can add more than criticism or a list of stocks that Yahoo.com said returned 43%.....STFU. providing information to GBers BEFORE a Fund moves up is important......not after.
this thread was started to help the AVERAGE investor. i talk about the overall market. NOT commodities. if you'd like to help out members with a commodities thread, that would be great.
NT
Dow Drops 453 points as Lending Freezes Up Following AIG Takeover
Sept. 17 U.S. stocks tumbled 453 points as bank lending seized up in the wake of the government's takeover of American International Group Inc., raising concern that more of the nation's biggest financial companies will fail.
Yields on three-month Treasury bills sank to a 54-year low as investors sought the relative safety of government debt, and a measure of corporate borrowing costs surged to the highest since the crash of 1987.
It's ugly,'' said Michael Mullaney, a Boston-based money manager for Fiduciary Trust Co., which oversees $10 billion in stocks and bonds. It's about the worst I've seen it in 25 years
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Sept 17 Washington Mutual, the nation's largest thrift, has put itself up for sale, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing unidentified people briefed on the matter.
NT
-
HAHAHA! Nice one.
...I don't know your risk tolerance,
I don't know your cash positioning,
I don't know your long term investment goals,
I don't know your short term investment goals,
I don't know what you are currently invested in and I don't know any financial information pertaining to you.
Based off these considerations, I NEVER RECOMMEND STOCKS, BONDS, or MUTUAL FUNDS or any other SEPCIFIC investement vehicles.
Translation: BUY-BUY-BUY
NEVER a signal to sell from minions like you... EVER!
NT told the Average investor in a 401k to get out, back in Nov 12, 2007.
Dow is well under 11,000 now.
All my coworkers have lost 20% + on their 401k's
But that's right, it will go back up right? right? I mean thats a law of the universe, that stocks always go up right?
S&P averaged 3.7% for the last 10 years.
in the meantime, BUY STOCK
You add no value and Parrot information that is HARMFUL (30% LOSS) to average investors that do not know better.
Please go away.
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Banks are not the only ones struggling in the growing financial crisis. The fund established to insure their deposits is also feeling the pinch, and the taxpayer may be the lender of last resort.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., whose insurance fund has slipped below the minimum target level set by Congress, could be forced to tap tax dollars through a Treasury Department loan if Washington Mutual Inc., the nation's largest thrift, or another struggling rival fails, economists and industry analysts said Tuesday.
NT
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Oh I got it...you are a NT's gimmick account. So predictable.
You have no integrity.
Show me again where anything I said was buy buy buy?
You fucking idiot....thanks for the laugh enjoy & the above highlighted (red) for your viewing pleasure.
Give us your next round of picks, -30% return was impressive, can you get it down to -20% this next time around? I would have to take up a second job to be able to afford to follow your investment advice.
NT has been saying for almost a year now to stay out, and EVERYDAY he posts news to back his position.
You come on this thread with the "feeling" that things aren't so bad, that there are plenty of good "buys" then proceed to give a list of funds that lose 30%
You have Brain Damage... Go away now.
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Washington Mutual, the struggling savings and loan, has been working on several efforts to save itself, including a potential sale, people briefed on the matter said Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs, which Washington Mutual has hired, started the process several days ago, these people said. Among the potential bidders that Goldman has talked to are Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and HSBC. But no buyers may materialize. That could force the government to place Washington Mutual into conservatorship, like IndyMac, or find a bridge-bank solution, which was extended to thrifts in the new housing regulations.
Citigroup is also considering an offer, but would likely be able to buy Washington Mutual only if it emerged from a receivership, according to a person close to the situation. JPMorgan is maintaining its posture that it will not bid unless it receives government support, according to another person briefed on the matter.
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crap >:( My annual return is down to 32% on investopedia. I've been up over 100 for quite a while. I made my picks around the start of the year. I guess I'm not doing to bad, maybe time to play for real.
-
Gbers, with the market tanking nearly 1,000 points in 3 days, a short cover rally would not be unexpected.
NT
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Central Banks Intervene in Financial Markets
At least six major central banks pumped billions of dollars of extra credit into financial markets amid fears that this week's crisis was drying up liquidity.
On Thursday, Sept. 18, the European Central Bank in Frankfurt said its dollar funding operations would more than double from the existing $50 billion (34 billion euros) to $110 billion.
The Bank of England said it would pump $40 billion into money markets as part of the move coordinated with the US Federal Reserve.
"These measures, together with other actions taken in the last few days by individual central banks, are designed to improve the liquidity conditions in global financial markets," the Bank of England said.
Moves aim to improve liquidity
The Bank of Japan conducted a currency swap deal with the Federal Reserve worth $60 billion in order to provide dollar funds to financial institutions.
The bank also injected 2.5 trillion yen ($23.9 billion) into the money market Thursday to stabilize Japanese markets affected by the fallout from the Monday collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers.
BOJ had pumped 5.5 trillion yen into the markets over the previous two days.
The ECB said the measures were "designed to address elevated pressures in the short-term US dollar funding markets" and "improve the liquidity conditions in global financial markets."
Speculation on Morgan Stanley
It said the ECB would obtain up to 40 billion dollars from the Federal Reserve by a swap.
Other participating banks were the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank.
European share prices steadied after the cash injections.
Robert Halver, a markets analyst at Baader Bank, said in Frankfurt, "The central banks are letting liquidity flood through every crack to stop the domino effect among financial institutions."
He was referring to the series of crises that culminated Thursday in British bank Lloyds taking over mortgage lender Halifax Bank of Scotland for 12.2 billion pounds (15.3 billion euros; $22.2 billion).
There was speculation that Morgan Stanley of the United States might be the next merger candidate. The New York Times said in its online edition that it might be taken over by Wachovia.
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Gbers, no real surprise to us, the Dow was DOWN another 453 points. No change in our plan. Markets down (Dow) nearly 4,000 points since the thread started. as i i've said before, the market will dictate when we go from Bearish to Bullish.
TerminalPutz, i'm DONE arguing with you. unless you can add more than criticism or a list of stocks that Yahoo.com said returned 43%.....STFU. providing information to GBers BEFORE a Fund moves up is important......not after.
TerminalPutz, just wondering how my market bitch doing ? :-*
Come back you loud mouth, know nothing, condescending peice of shit.
NT
GB'ers, I will be posting PM's from Nuerotoxin and her desire to have me participate in her thread enjoy.
I hope you get as good of a laugh as I did.
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GB'ers, I will be posting PM's from Nuerotoxin and her desire to have me participate in her thread enjoy.
I hope you get as good of a laugh as I did.
post pm's and be banned... by order of the fucking dictator hugo goddamned fucking chavez, and i'm not kidding. I hate that shit.
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post pm's and be banned... by order of the fucking dictator hugo goddamned fucking chavez, and i'm not kidding. I hate that shit.
LMAO! You making shit up as we go?
It is is relevant since CLEARLY you have a person saying one thing and contradicting it in a public forum later. Either this moron wants me to post or not Chavez.
Remember this Dicktator?
"On calling someone out: There is absolutely nothing wrong with calling someone out by creating a thread to hash out a specific political point with that person. This is really perfect when you've noted a serious discrepancy in your opponent and want to make a specific debate from it. Stay away from calling someone out for insult purposes only, have a valid political point that you indend on debating if you call someone out. If there is no point, the thread may be deleted at the leasure of the mods or by request."
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=112411.0
-
LMAO! You making shit up as we go?
It is is relevant since CLEARLY you have a person saying one thing and contradicting it in a public forum later. Either this moron wants me to post or not Chavez.
This thread is going bi polar. ::) Instead of sticking to whats going on, idiots come here and turn it into a mud throwing event. Lame.
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This thread is going bi polar. ::) Instead of sticking to whats going on, idiots come here and turn it into a mud throwing event. Lame.
I agree but this happens in threads in this forum all the time.
-
Stop Rewarding Bad Behavior!
Ken Blackwell
Thursday, September 18, 2008
townhall.com (http://townhall.com)
The Dow dropped 504 points as major American corporations nosedived, some of which are being saved with your tax money. It is way past the time to give corporate executives additional incentives to avoid asking for a congressional bailout. Instead they must run their companies responsibly.
It started when Bear Stearns was bailed out by federal authorities a few weeks ago. What is unprecedented about this is the Federal Reserve, which formerly operated as a lender of last resort to banks, for the first time channeled cash to a financial investment firm, radically expanding its sphere of regulation.
In the wake of this, market-watchers speculated which firm would be bailed out next. On Monday the feds let Lehman Brothers, one of the nation’soldest investment houses, collapse. Another giant, Merrill Lynch, was acquired by Bank of America as Merrill’s value plummeted.
Then AIG, with initial assets of one trillion dollars, lost 60% of its value. Fearing the global financial tidal wave AIG’s failure would cause, the feds stepped in. The international insurance giant wasspared Lehman’s fate.
These private-sector failings happened atthe same time of the collapse of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Those two institutions have no one to blame but themselves. Mortgage lenders were issuing mortgages to people with no income and noassets. That is simply insane. Who gives a loan to someone who cannot cover it and has no income with which to make payments? Someone who thinks that Congress will bail them out with your money if things gobad, that is who.
Some on the left criticize this as thefailure of the free market. They will demand increased government control of the economy, but they are wrong. Markets have both potential and risk. Business leaders get paid to exercise their judgment of the markets in order to maximize a company’s profits. Boards of directorsexercise their judgment to elect corporate officers who will best achieve this goal.
But that is not what is happening in somecorporations. A corporation should not pay one dollar more than necessary to keep corporate officers from quitting. Instead some are paying one dollar less than the amount that would send shareholders into an all-out revolt. Such corporations are operating to enrich their top employees at the expense of shareholders. That is backward - corporations exist to enrich shareholders.
This week's financial meltdown offers examples of this. The top officer at Lehman Brothers was Dick Fuld. His personal compensation over the past severalyears was nearly half a billion dollars before taxes. He was raking in these astounding paychecks while the company entrusted to him was atserious risk because of reckless investment decisions.
Perhaps someone could do such an amazing job that they are worth such pay, but the fact that his company is now bankrupt creates doubt that hiscompensation was merited by his performance.
With freedom comes responsibility. Those who would have self-government must, by definition, govern themselves. Self-government only works when peopleact responsibly and fulfill their obligations. When people abuse these freedoms to enrich themselves at the expense of others, then the public will demand the government to step in. That is how government grows,and how freedom is diminished.
The prospect of government intervention should be terrifying to corporate leaders. For too longmany of them viewed it as a safety net.
First, as many have suggested, if the feds become involved the corporate executives responsible for the failed company should only receive a governmentsalary. But more is needed.
So if federal regulators becomeinvolved, all supplemental, deferred, and other non-salary compensation should be immediately canceled. Beyond that, federal regulators should also have the option of terminating officers, forcing the corporateboard to find new leadership.
After all, if someone is running a company so poorly that it goes under, why should one get paid enormous sums for one's incompetence? If a company goes under, those responsible should not be rewarded. And after the recent federal bailouts, some corporate officers are likely considering seeking thesame bailout.
As my grandmother was fond of saying, if you reward bad behavior all you are going to get is more bad behavior.
Reckless and irresponsible individuals like those at the companies mentioned above give decent corporate managers a bad name. When financial meltdowns occur, the public’s outrage drives government to take over part of the private sector. When the government does so, it replaces irresponsible executives with unaccountable bureaucrats.
That takes us out of the frying pan and into the fire. To prevent that outcome, corporate officers must be made accountable.
Copyright © 2008 Salem Web Network. All Rights Reserved.
-
Stop Rewarding Bad Behavior!
Ken Blackwell
Thursday, September 18, 2008
townhall.com (http://townhall.com)
The Dow dropped 504 points as major American corporations nosedived, some of which are being saved with your tax money. It is way past the time to give corporate executives additional incentives to avoid asking for a congressional bailout. Instead they must run their companies responsibly.
It started when Bear Stearns was bailed out by federal authorities a few weeks ago. What is unprecedented about this is the Federal Reserve, which formerly operated as a lender of last resort to banks, for the first time channeled cash to a financial investment firm, radically expanding its sphere of regulation.
In the wake of this, market-watchers speculated which firm would be bailed out next. On Monday the feds let Lehman Brothers, one of the nation’soldest investment houses, collapse. Another giant, Merrill Lynch, was acquired by Bank of America as Merrill’s value plummeted.
Then AIG, with initial assets of one trillion dollars, lost 60% of its value. Fearing the global financial tidal wave AIG’s failure would cause, the feds stepped in. The international insurance giant wasspared Lehman’s fate.
These private-sector failings happened atthe same time of the collapse of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Those two institutions have no one to blame but themselves. Mortgage lenders were issuing mortgages to people with no income and noassets. That is simply insane. Who gives a loan to someone who cannot cover it and has no income with which to make payments? Someone who thinks that Congress will bail them out with your money if things gobad, that is who.
Some on the left criticize this as thefailure of the free market. They will demand increased government control of the economy, but they are wrong. Markets have both potential and risk. Business leaders get paid to exercise their judgment of the markets in order to maximize a company’s profits. Boards of directorsexercise their judgment to elect corporate officers who will best achieve this goal.
But that is not what is happening in somecorporations. A corporation should not pay one dollar more than necessary to keep corporate officers from quitting. Instead some are paying one dollar less than the amount that would send shareholders into an all-out revolt. Such corporations are operating to enrich their top employees at the expense of shareholders. That is backward - corporations exist to enrich shareholders.
This week's financial meltdown offers examples of this. The top officer at Lehman Brothers was Dick Fuld. His personal compensation over the past severalyears was nearly half a billion dollars before taxes. He was raking in these astounding paychecks while the company entrusted to him was atserious risk because of reckless investment decisions.
Perhaps someone could do such an amazing job that they are worth such pay, but the fact that his company is now bankrupt creates doubt that hiscompensation was merited by his performance.
With freedom comes responsibility. Those who would have self-government must, by definition, govern themselves. Self-government only works when peopleact responsibly and fulfill their obligations. When people abuse these freedoms to enrich themselves at the expense of others, then the public will demand the government to step in. That is how government grows,and how freedom is diminished.
The prospect of government intervention should be terrifying to corporate leaders. For too longmany of them viewed it as a safety net.
First, as many have suggested, if the feds become involved the corporate executives responsible for the failed company should only receive a governmentsalary. But more is needed.
So if federal regulators becomeinvolved, all supplemental, deferred, and other non-salary compensation should be immediately canceled. Beyond that, federal regulators should also have the option of terminating officers, forcing the corporateboard to find new leadership.
After all, if someone is running a company so poorly that it goes under, why should one get paid enormous sums for one's incompetence? If a company goes under, those responsible should not be rewarded. And after the recent federal bailouts, some corporate officers are likely considering seeking thesame bailout.
As my grandmother was fond of saying, if you reward bad behavior all you are going to get is more bad behavior.
Reckless and irresponsible individuals like those at the companies mentioned above give decent corporate managers a bad name. When financial meltdowns occur, the public’s outrage drives government to take over part of the private sector. When the government does so, it replaces irresponsible executives with unaccountable bureaucrats.
That takes us out of the frying pan and into the fire. To prevent that outcome, corporate officers must be made accountable.
Copyright © 2008 Salem Web Network. All Rights Reserved.
I agree (for now) but what do you think the consequences would be if we didn't bail out these HUGE corporations?
-
LMAO! You making shit up as we go?
It is is relevant since CLEARLY you have a person saying one thing and contradicting it in a public forum later. Either this moron wants me to post or not Chavez.
Remember this Dicktator?
"On calling someone out: There is absolutely nothing wrong with calling someone out by creating a thread to hash out a specific political point with that person. This is really perfect when you've noted a serious discrepancy in your opponent and want to make a specific debate from it. Stay away from calling someone out for insult purposes only, have a valid political point that you indend on debating if you call someone out. If there is no point, the thread may be deleted at the leasure of the mods or by request."
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=112411.0
yea, I'm making it up as I go along, deal with it asshole... You post his pm's anywhere on getbig and you're done here. I don't give a shit. It's so beyond a pussy act, I will fucking call you on it. You want to call him out on what he has said on the board, fine, but keep your stupid fucking personal messages personal.
Signed, your fucking dictator,
Hugo goddamned fucking Chavez bitch.
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I agree (for now) but what do you think the consequences would be if we didn't bail out these HUGE corporations?
The same as withdrawl from heroin. Vomiting, aching, and wanting to die.
The path we are on: fiat currency, deficit spending, and producing nothing but Banking and WAR will come to an end
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I agree (for now) but what do you think the consequences would be if we didn't bail out these HUGE corporations?
Yeah, I know.
I think this was a slippery slope coming some time ago, and Bush's administration saw this coming some 5 years ago. Yet folks want to blame him when the very party that is in office now wanted nothing to do with tightening up the loose business practices that were opened up during the Clinton years.
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yea, I'm making it up as I go along, deal with it asshole... You post his pm's anywhere on getbig and you're done here. I don't give a shit. It's so beyond a pussy act, I will fucking call you on it. You want to call him out on what he has said on the board, fine, but keep your stupid fucking personal messages personal.
Signed, your fucking dictator,
Hugo goddamned fucking Chavez bitch.
Come on Berz... You don't have to go there dude.
You're better than that.
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Come on Berz... You don't have to go there dude.
You're better than that.
I am what I am, it is done.
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Gbers, again no real surprise. Dow was up 410 points today with massive short covering at the end of the trading day. (see early morning post below)
Let me explain why the market expectedly surged today.
1) from a technical standpoint the market was temporarily OVERSOLD after dropping 1,000 points recently. the Dow also hit support @ 10,500.00
2) institutions that have been shorting this market have BIG profits and always cover their positions prior to Triple Witching/Freaky Friday, which is tommorrow. in fact, many institutional traders DO NOT trade on Triple Witching, due to extreme volatility.
3) possible regulation stopping the shorting of financial/bank stocks
NT
Gbers, with the market tanking nearly 1,000 points in 3 days, a short cover rally would not be unexpected.
NT
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Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied the most in six years on prospects the government will formulate a permanent plan to shore up financial markets, while regulators and pension funds took steps to curb bets against banks and brokerages.
Senator Charles Schumer proposed a new agency to pump capital into financial companies and the nation's three largest pension funds stopped loaning shares of the brokerages to investors betting on their declines.
NT
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GBers, as many of you know, financial/banks lead the market higher. if new regulation is put into place to stop the shorting of these equities, the market can be manipulated to move higher.....at will.
i'll keep a close eye on these developments and let you know when MY game plan changes.
NT
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GBers, as many of you know, financial/banks lead the market higher. if new regulation is put into place to stop the shorting of these equities, the market can be manipulated to move higher.....at will.
i'll keep a close eye on these developments and let you know when MY game plan changes.
NT
What is your opinion on shorting and naked shorting regarding the stability of financial markets.
Should this be allowed, or does it only serve to add volatility to the market and allow big money to profit at the expense of the "buy and hold 401k dumb money" ?
What would happen to the market if a permanent ban was implemented on short selling all stocks?
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What is your opinion on shorting and naked shorting regarding the stability of financial markets.
Should this be allowed, or does it only serve to add volatility to the market and allow big money to profit at the expense of the "buy and hold 401k dumb money" ?
What would happen to the market if a permanent ban was implemented on short selling all stocks?
short selling is a normal part of the market. no different than buying. i'm personally against naked short selling, especially when market volatility is so high.
if a permanent ban was put in place, the market couldn't work. all markets need a Buyer and a Seller to function. how else could it work? if all you had were buyers, where would you buy from......with no sellers ?
it appears that the Fed is looking to limit/stop the short selling of our troubled banks and brokerage firms. (unprecedented move) since financial's and banks lead the market higher, doing this could possibly jump start the market, which is the intent. (too soon to tell)
NT
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short selling is a normal part of the market. no diffrent than buying. i'm personally against naked short selling, especially when market volatility is so high.
if a permanent ban was put in place, the market couldn't work. all markets need a Buyer and a Seller to function. how else could it work ? if all you had were buyers, where would you buy from......with no sellers ?
it appears that the Fed is looking to limit/stop the short selling of our troubled banks and brokerage firms. (unprecedented move) since financial's and banks lead the market higher, doing this could possibly jump start the market, which is the intent. (too soon to tell)
NT
Hmm i don't think you understand the principles regarding how buying and selling takes place.
When you short a share or contract you are essentially borrowing a share from an existing holder e.g. you broker has shares available for you to short. In days when things get really bad many brokers cannot give shares to short, either because risk of hedging their position will not work in their favour or they have none available.
You short by borrowing a share owned at the higher price, you will have to buy back that share at a future price.
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Average guy has started to get into the news and i am hearing every average guy around me telling me how Lehman fucked up.
Not to be offensive but it seems to me that too many retail side bears - every average joker is now talking about the end of the world. Again no offence to people like 240 who are passionate about the news but to professionals - we love it when retail is on the other side of the move. Really you guys know very little about the current situation no matter how much you keep reading the news.
We have to be close to a bottom or at-least a temporary bottom. Too many retailers getting involved.
Again no offence to anyone guys - obviously someone involved in the markets day to day is going to have a little edge on the average guy.
I am looking at 1180 ES as a level for a base.
Scared money = dumb money.
I have been bearish for a long time but have changed my stance last 2 days. I will always step in when i see hysteria - was expecting big rally on 17th got nice rally coming into the evening session but a brutal sell-off. No big deal that's what trails are for. Never seen the public as bearish as they were this week - i had relatives asking me about Lehman and what they should do with their money in the bank for gods sake.
Anyway, got in on the bounce today - classic capitulation - VIX at highs. Crazy volatility and dumb ass public scared for their lives.
If you learn one thing please learn this - always buy or fade hysteria. Monster day - so much money to be made today it was a JOKE. One of the craziest and most volatile sessions i have seen in a long long time. My best day of the year thus far.
Lets hope we can get short term bottom from these levels and get something close to a year end rally. Will take time to build a base while players get inventories in check. Hopefully get the bull back in 2009 2-3rd quarter. I am loading up some stocks i like in my very long term account and will be adding to these if we do get lower prices.
However, on a short term basis, if we take out today's lows anytime soon then damn - i will have to hold out on the long side for awhile in my short term accounts.
All the best to all.
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SEC intends to temporarily ban short-selling, but not clear if commission has approved the move: WSJ
Government is seeking congressional authority to buy distressed assets: WSJ
This is pure bullshit - they putting a ban to short selling - how the fuck are the arbs going to work now? What about hedging your positions.
The Government has lost their mind.
I never thought i would see the day - 200 years of free markets and now socialist regime has taken over. I never thought the US would be as dumb as the UK but there you have it.
Totally outraged - done with US stocks forever, time for me and many other traders like me to look for free markets elsewhere. Will continue to trade futures but this ban is completely outrageous.
The public is so fucking dumb - they need to be schooled on short selling and stop trying to find scapegoats like they have done on every downturn in history.
See ya later markets - US is done!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't give a fuck if this is only temporary - watch the volume dry up. SEC and Cox you fucking wankers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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China does not allow short selling - now look at the chart you fucking morons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=000001.SS&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s)
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Nice to see more guys getting in on this thread with usefull info. Thanks! ;D
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SEC intends to temporarily ban short-selling, but not clear if commission has approved the move: WSJ
Government is seeking congressional authority to buy distressed assets: WSJ
This is pure bullshit - they putting a ban to short selling - how the fuck are the arbs going to work now? What about hedging your positions.
The Government has lost their mind.
I never thought i would see the day - 200 years of free markets and now socialist regime has taken over. I never thought the US would be as dumb as the UK but there you have it.
Totally outraged - done with US stocks forever, time for me and many other traders like me to look for free markets elsewhere. Will continue to trade futures but this ban is completely outrageous.
The public is so fucking dumb - they need to be schooled on short selling and stop trying to find scapegoats like they have done on every downturn in history.
See ya later markets - US is done!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't give a fuck if this is only temporary - watch the volume dry up. SEC and Cox you fucking wankers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Its called the new world order. More like fascism than socialism.
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China does not allow short selling - now look at the chart you fucking morons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=000001.SS&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s)
SB, good example. in a market without short sellers, stocks become hyper- inflated and the market cannot sustain itself.
NT
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SEC intends to temporarily ban short-selling, but not clear if commission has approved the move: WSJ
Government is seeking congressional authority to buy distressed assets: WSJ
This is pure bullshit - they putting a ban to short selling - how the fuck are the arbs going to work now? What about hedging your positions.
The Government has lost their mind.
I never thought i would see the day - 200 years of free markets and now socialist regime has taken over. I never thought the US would be as dumb as the UK but there you have it.
Totally outraged - done with US stocks forever, time for me and many other traders like me to look for free markets elsewhere. Will continue to trade futures but this ban is completely outrageous.
The public is so fucking dumb - they need to be schooled on short selling and stop trying to find scapegoats like they have done on every downturn in history.
See ya later markets - US is done!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't give a fuck if this is only temporary - watch the volume dry up. SEC and Cox you fucking wankers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
imo, all of the above is completely accurate. the SEC is trying to blame the markets DOWNTURN on shorts sellers, which is completely bogus and incorrect.
the markets downturn is the result of horrible US fiscal policies.
if someone must take the blame, make it short sellers...not the Fed or the SEC. ::)
the Fed is desperate to prevent a complete collapse of our stock market. therefore, all rabbits must be pulled out of their respective hats! ;)
NT
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WASHINGTON -Amid the spiraling market crisis and mounting pressure from lawmakers, the Securities and Exchange Commission is considering taking the dramatic step of temporarily banning the routine practice of betting against company stocks.
The move, if taken by the SEC, may well be unprecedented and a reflection of regulators' concern about the widening scope of the financial crisis as entreaties come from all quarters to stem a swarm of short-selling.
SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, Treasury Secretary Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke held a closed-door meeting Thursday night with members of Congress. Cox told the lawmakers the SEC may put in a temporary emergency ban on all short-selling — not just the aggressive forms it already has targeted, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The ban might apply to stocks of selected financial companies, to all financial companies or even possibly to all public companies.
GBers, you know things are BAD when our goverment must play this game.
i've never seen anything like this in my lifetime. a total game changer.
amazing.....
NT
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The head of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve began discussions on Thursday with Congressional leaders on what could become the biggest bailout in United States history.
While details remain to be worked out, the plan is likely to authorize the government to buy distressed mortgages at deep discounts from banks and other institutions. The proposal could result in the most direct commitment of taxpayer funds so far in the financial crisis that Fed and Treasury officials say is the worst they have ever seen.
NT
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HONG KONG -Global stock markets soared Friday after a punishing week as news of a possible U.S. government plan to rescue banks from toxic mortgage debt brought hope of a letup in the world's worst financial crisis in decades.
NT
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SEC stops shorts. The SEC joined the UK's FSA in banning short sales on 799 financial stocks. "The Commission is committed to using every weapon in its arsenal to combat market manipulation that threatens investors and capital markets," SEC chief Christopher Cox says. The halt will initially last for 10 days, with an option to extend up to 30. Other steps taken include a temporary requirement that money managers report new short sales of certain securities, and easing restrictions on securities issuers to repurchase their stock. "Under normal market conditions, short selling contributes to price efficiency and adds liquidity to the markets," the SEC noted. "At present, it appears that unbridled short selling is contributing to the recent, sudden price declines in the securities of financial institutions unrelated to true price valuation
GBers, as long as this rule remains in effect, expect the market to SURGE higher.
NT
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
Neuro:
You called it back in November! :'(
So, what do we do now?
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SEC stops shorts. The SEC joined the UK's FSA in banning short sales on 799 financial stocks. "The Commission is committed to using every weapon in its arsenal to combat market manipulation that threatens investors and capital markets," SEC chief Christopher Cox says. The halt will initially last for 10 days, with an option to extend up to 30. Other steps taken include a temporary requirement that money managers report new short sales of certain securities, and easing restrictions on securities issuers to repurchase their stock. "Under normal market conditions, short selling contributes to price efficiency and adds liquidity to the markets," the SEC noted. "At present, it appears that unbridled short selling is contributing to the recent, sudden price declines in the securities of financial institutions unrelated to true price valuation
GBers, as long as this rule remains in effect, expect the market to SURGE higher.
NT
They didn't have a problem with short selling when the market went up to 14,000.
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WASHINGTON -- The federal government is working on a sweeping series of programs that would represent perhaps the biggest intervention in financial markets since the 1930s, embracing the need for a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis after a series of ad hoc rescues.
At the center of the potential plan is a mechanism that would take bad assets off the balance sheets of financial companies, said people familiar with the matter, a device that echoes similar moves taken in past financial crises. The size of the entity could reach hundreds of billions of dollars, one person said.
Another proposal would be the creation of federal insurance for investors in money-market mutual funds, coverage akin to the insurance that currently safeguards bank deposits. The move is designed to stem an outflow of funds as consumers start to worry about even the safest of investments, a sign of how the crisis is spreading to Main Street. There is $3.4 trillion in money-market funds outstanding.
In addition, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a temporary ban on short-selling on 799 financial stocks. The ban, which is effective immediately, is set to last for 10 days, but could be extended for up to 30 days
market manipulation at it's finest ! ;D guys, once things settle down a bit, rational decisions can be made on a prudent, long term market strategy.
so for now, unless the Dow breaks the low of yesterday (10,460.00) we will turn from Bearish to Bullish. (with a little help from the Fed ;) )
if we can establish a stable base, i see this market changing course through years end and moving higher.
NT
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Neuro:
You called it back in November! :'(
So, what do we do now?
just follow along Bay. it's too early to do anything at this point, but the Fed definitely made some game changing, historic moves.
NT
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WASHINGTON -- The federal government is working on a sweeping series of programs that would represent perhaps the biggest intervention in financial markets since the 1930s, embracing the need for a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis after a series of ad hoc rescues.
At the center of the potential plan is a mechanism that would take bad assets off the balance sheets of financial companies, said people familiar with the matter, a device that echoes similar moves taken in past financial crises. The size of the entity could reach hundreds of billions of dollars, one person said.
Another proposal would be the creation of federal insurance for investors in money-market mutual funds, coverage akin to the insurance that currently safeguards bank deposits. The move is designed to stem an outflow of funds as consumers start to worry about even the safest of investments, a sign of how the crisis is spreading to Main Street. There is $3.4 trillion in money-market funds outstanding.
In addition, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a temporary ban on short-selling on 799 financial stocks. The ban, which is effective immediately, is set to last for 10 days, but could be extended for up to 30 days
market manipulation at it's finest ! ;D guys, once things settle down a bit, rational decisions can be made on a prudent, long term market strategy.
so for now, unless the Dow breaks the low of yesterday (10,460.00) we will turn from Bearish to Bullish. (with a little help from the Fed ;) )
if we can establish a stable base, i see this market changing course through years end and moving higher.
NT
This is just plain fucked.
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SEC stops shorts. The SEC joined the UK's FSA in banning short sales on 799 financial stocks. "The Commission is committed to using every weapon in its arsenal to combat market manipulation that threatens investors and capital markets," SEC chief Christopher Cox says.
Does anyone else find this pathertic?
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I didn't want to start a new thread,
has some good videos
http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=TIGJAY (http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=TIGJAY)
Manipulating the Market - The Central Banks.
Short Selling - Intervention and Manipulation but by who
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FREE MARKET ECONOMY AT ITS FINEST GENTLEMEN!!!
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GBers, please read this NY Times article in it's entirety. it describes what i've talked about over the last year.
NT
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
September 20, 2008
Congressional Leaders Stunned by Warnings
WASHINGTON — It was a room full of people who rarely hold their tongues. But as the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, laid out the potentially devastating ramifications of the financial crisis before congressional leaders on Thursday night, there was a stunned silence at first.
Mr. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had made an urgent and unusual evening visit to Capitol Hill, and they were gathered around a conference table in the offices of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
“When you listened to him describe it you gulped," said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York.
As Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, put it Friday morning on the ABC program “Good Morning America,” the congressional leaders were told “that we’re literally maybe days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system, with all the implications here at home and globally.”
Mr. Schumer added, “History was sort of hanging over it, like this was a moment.”
When Mr. Schumer described the meeting as “somber,” Mr. Dodd cut in. “Somber doesn’t begin to justify the words,” he said. “We have never heard language like this.”
“What you heard last evening,” he added, “is one of those rare moments, certainly rare in my experience here, is Democrats and Republicans deciding we need to work together quickly.”
Although Mr. Schumer, Mr. Dodd and other participants declined to repeat precisely what they were told by Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Paulson, they said the two men described the financial system as effectively bound in a knot that was being pulled tighter and tighter by the day.
“You have the credit lines in America, which are the lifeblood of the economy, frozen.” Mr. Schumer said. “That hasn’t happened before. It’s a brave new world. You are in uncharted territory, but the one thing you do know is you can’t leave them frozen or the economy will just head south at a rapid rate.”
As he spoke, Mr. Schumer swooped his hand, to make the gesture of a plummeting bird. “You know we’d be lucky ...” he said as his voice trailed off. “Well, I’ll leave it at that.”
As officials at the Treasury Department raced on Friday to draft legislative language for an ambitious plan for the government to buy billions of dollars of illiquid debt from ailing American financial institutions, legislators on Capitol Hill said they planned to work through the weekend reviewing the proposal and making efforts to bring a package of measures to the floor of the House and Senate by the end of next week.
Lawmakers in both parties described the meeting in Ms. Pelosi’s office on Thursday night with Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke as collaborative, and that they were prepared to put politics aside to address the needs of the American people.
While Democrats initially said after the meeting that they planned to use the administration’s proposal of a huge rescue effort to win support for an economic stimulus package, they pulled back slightly on Friday morning, saying that their top priority was to help put together the bailout package and stabilize the economy.
But it was clear they continued to examine ways to make clear that the government was stepping up not just to help the major financial firms but also to protect the interests of American taxpayers and families by safeguarding their pensions and college savings, and by preventing any further drying up of consumer credit.
In addition to potential stimulus measures, which could include an extension of unemployment benefits and spending on public infrastructure projects, Democrats said they intended to consider measures to help stem home foreclosures and stabilize real estate values.
Among the potential steps Congress can take include approving legislation to allow bankruptcy judges to modify the terms of primary mortgages — authority that the bankruptcy laws do not currently allow and that the banking industry has strenuously opposed.
But the Democrats said it was too soon to discuss such details, and that they were awaiting a draft of the proposal from the Treasury Department.
“We have got to deal with the foreclosure issue,” Mr. Dodd said. “You have got to stop that hemorrhaging..If you don’t, the problem doesn’t go away. Ben Bernanke has said it over and over again. Hank Paulson recognizes it. This problem began with bad lending practices. Those are his words, not mine, and so this plan must address that or I’ll be back here in front of a bank of microphones at some point explaining the next failure.”
Even before the drafting of the plan was complete, the Bush administration and the Fed began efforts to sell the idea of a huge rescue to potentially skeptical rank-and-file members of Congress. Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke held a conference call with House Republicans to explain their thinking.
Senator Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the senior Republican on the Senate banking committee, said in a television interview that cost to the government of purchasing bad debt could run to $1 trillion — a potential warning sign since Mr. Shelby is a longtime skeptic of government intervention in the private market.
Until Mr. Shelby was interviewed on Friday morning, officials on Capitol Hill had been careful not to discuss specific figures, though the rescue envisioned by the Treasury Department clearly entails a government appropriation of hundreds of billions of dollars.
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What does the economy look like for the next 6 months?
Where should I put my money?
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What does the economy look like for the next 6 months?
Where should I put my money?
1) 240, the recent Fed. action will undoubtedly help the stock market (short term) but i'm still very cautious about the underlying fundamentals of the US economy. remember, 70% of our nations GDP is consumer spending.....which has virtually stopped. (relatively speaking)
2) for now, i'd play it very conservatively. first and foremost, think safety.
NT
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Where should I put my money?
In a 55 gallon drum filled with wood to help start a fire to keep warm.
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thanks guys!
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Treasury Seeks Authority to Buy $700 Billon in Assets
Sept. 20 The U.S. Treasury today asked Congress for authority to buy as much as $700 billion in soured mortgage-related assets from the nation's financial institutions in the most far-reaching federal intrusion into markets since the Great Depression.
The legislation is aimed at ending a yearlong crisis that toppled four financial giants, forced two into mergers and has brought credit markets to the brink of paralysis. It would give Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson sweeping power to hire managers and award contracts to private companies without review by courts or government agencies.
this nightmare administration can not END fast enough.
NT
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Treasury Seeks Authority to Buy $700 Billon in Assets
Sept. 20 The U.S. Treasury today asked Congress for authority to buy as much as $700 billion in soured mortgage-related assets from the nation's financial institutions in the most far-reaching federal intrusion into markets since the Great Depression.
The legislation is aimed at ending a yearlong crisis that toppled four financial giants, forced two into mergers and has brought credit markets to the brink of paralysis. It would give Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson sweeping power to hire managers and award contracts to private companies without review by courts or government agencies.
this nightmare administration can not END fast enough.
NT
Section 8 Of the new bailout draft. (IRONY HERE?)
"Subsection (b) of section 3101 of title 31, United States Code, is amended by striking out the dollar limitation contained in such subsection and inserting in lieu thereof $11,315,000,000,000."
Well that limit is right at the water mark maximum? Did they goof? Added $700 BILLION exceeds the USC subsection b of section 3101 of title 31!
They should make it at least $13 TRILLION since we'll hit that next year.
Oh wait, that's right... It's in Nancy Pelosi & Charles Schummer NEW $75 BILLION, STIMULUS II Package - in NEW DEBT. I think they raise the National Debt ceiling to $13 TRILLION
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I wonder what their reply is going to be when the medicare/social security crisis hits?
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Why even have a debt ceiling? When we approach the limit, we just raise it again.
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Have you dudes seen the rate of return for a 3 month fed note? lol :-\
Also, this new body to buy up shitty assets should be desolved should we get out of this mess.
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Have you dudes seen the rate of return for a 3 month fed note? lol :-\
Also, this new body to buy up shitty assets should be desolved should we get out of this mess.
Government never gets smaller without a revolution.
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"While the proposal contains no requirement that the government receive anything from banks in return for unloading their bad assets, it would allow the Treasury Department to designate financial institutions as “agents of the government,” and mandate that they perform any “reasonable duties” that might entail."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26803347
How does that sound to ya?
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Sec. 6. (of purposed Bailout Plan)
Maximum Amount of Authorized Purchases.
The Secretary's authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time
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What does the economy look like for the next 6 months?
Where should I put my money?
How your mattress these days? Have you been to Delhi yet? ;D
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As the federal government steps to the center of the financial crisis, devising plans to take ownership of hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of bad mortgages, a pair of simple questions rise to the fore: Will this intervention finally be enough to restore order? And what will this grand rescue cost taxpayers?
The Treasury Department, as overseer of the financial system, has in recent weeks unleashed a vast array of initiatives in a bid to stave off catastrophe. It took over the country’s largest mortgage finance companies and put untold billions of taxpayer dollars on the line to prop up other lenders.
Some question the prudence of adding to the nation’s overall debt at a time when the Treasury relies on the largess of foreigners to cover the bills. Even so, there is wide agreement that a broad intervention like the one Treasury is proposing is necessary.
“We’re deep into Alice in Wonderland’s rabbit hole,” economist and former vice chairman of the board of governors at the Federal Reserve, Mr. Blinder said.
Many economists say such questions are beside the point. The nation is gripped by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Before Thursday night, when the Treasury secretary, the Federal Reserve chairman and leaders on Capitol Hill proclaimed their intentions to take over bad debts, the prognosis for the American financial system was sliding from grim toward potentially apocalyptic.
“It looked like we might be falling into the abyss,” Mr. Blinder said.
NT
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GBers, as many of you may already know, i'm a conservative republican who is completely disgusted by the failed policies of George W Bush and the GOP over the last 8 years. (and unafraid to admit it)
i accurately called the Stock Market implosion nearly a year ago, while many ignored warning signs and partied as the Dow soared to record levels. (we now know how that ended.) keep in mind, if not for the Feds constant Market manipulation/intervention, the Dow would now be sitting around 7,500.....if not lower. (that's no joke)
so here's my next forward looking prediction:
if John McCain is elected president, i fully expect the US to fall into a Depression that supercedes the one of 1929. IMO the current failed fiscal policies of the Bush administration (which John McCain readily supports) including tax cuts for corporations/wealthy with continued massive deficit war spending, will collapse the US dollar leading to our nations next Great Depression.
so what needs to be done ? in order for the US to avoid repeating history, we must finally "take our medicine" by raising interest rates, eliminate tax breaks for corporations/wealthy, quickly reduce deficit spending on unnecessary wars and encourage household saving. these aforementioned steps will slow growth, reduce inflation and increase the dollars value, effectively putting us back on the road to economic recovery. we CANNOT spend our way out of this crisis.
while i'm not a doomsday type of guy, i am a pragmatic realist who analyzes economic information on a daily basis. please understand, our current economic path is 100% UNSUSTAINABLE. without significant changes in policy, the past will unfortunately be repeated.
NT
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Why did you get Hugo Shavez to delete all my posts in this thread?
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GBers, as many of you may already know, i'm a conservative republican who is completely disgusted by the failed policies of George W Bush and the GOP over the last 8 years. (and unafraid to admit it)
i accurately called the Stock Market implosion nearly a year ago, while many ignored warning signs and partied as the Dow soared to record levels. (we now know how that ended.) keep in mind, if not for the Feds constant Market manipulation/intervention, the Dow would now be sitting around 7,500.....if not lower. (that's no joke)
so here's my next forward looking prediction:
if John McCain is elected president, i fully expect the US to fall into a Depression that supercedes the one of 1929. IMO the current failed fiscal policies of the Bush administration (which John McCain readily supports) including tax cuts for corporations/wealthy with continued massive deficit war spending, will collapse the US dollar leading to our nations next Great Depression.
so what needs to be done ? in order for the US to avoid repeating history, we must finally "take our medicine" by raising interest rates, eliminate tax breaks for corporations/wealthy, quickly reduce deficit spending on unnecessary wars and encourage household saving. these aforementioned steps will slow growth, reduce inflation and increase the dollars value, effectively putting us back on the road to economic recovery. we CANNOT spend our way out of this crisis.
while i'm not a doomsday type of guy, i am a pragmatic realist who analyzes economic information on a daily basis. please understand, our current economic path is 100% UNSUSTAINABLE. without significant changes in policy, the past will unfortunately be repeated.
NT
Good post. I was wondering though, you don't seem very critical of Obama's spending plans nor his decision to just shift troops from one place to another, that won't save us money either. Do you think he would still be a better choice and could you explain why?
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Why did you get Hugo Shavez to delete all my posts in this thread?
Too put it nicely, it's because you're an idiot. :)
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Paulson: Foreign banks can use U.S. rescue plan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Sunday that foreign banks will be able to unload bad financial assets under a $700 billion U.S. proposal aimed at restoring order during a devastating financial crisis.
"Yes, and they should. Because ... if a financial institution has business operations in the United States, hires people in the United States, if they are clogged with illiquid assets, they have the same impact on the American people as any other institution," Paulson said on ABC television's "This Week with George Stephanopolous."
Paulson was appearing on the Sunday television talk show circuit to provide details about the U.S. government plan for a sweeping bailout to mop up hundreds of billions of dollars in toxic mortgage debt.
The moves capped a week in which financial markets faced their most serious confluence of crises since the Great Depression in the 1930s and threatened national economies and the worldwide banking system.
Paulson defended the rescue package as painful and costly, but necessary to stabilize a financial system that has all but ground to a halt.
"The situation we had, where the markets are frozen and lending may not be available, is one that won't be good for the American people," he said.
"The fact that the taxpayer is in this position is painful to me."
Paulson acknowledged that an emergency rescue plan aimed at stabilizing a financial system in freefall will cost taxpayers money, but argued that costs will not be as high the $700 billion limit of the package. Continued...
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2148303920080921
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Public losses for private gain: The effective nationalisation of huge sectors of the economy means US taxpayers are picking up the tab for failing banks.
Nouriel Roubini
guardian.co.uk
Thursday, September 18, 2008
With the nationalisation of Fannie and Freddie, comrades Bush, Paulson and Bernanke started transforming the US into the USSRA (United Socialist State Republic of America).
This transformation of the US into a country where there is socialism for the rich, the well-connected and Wall Street (ie, where profits are privatised and losses are socialised) continues today with the nationalisation of AIG.
This latest action on AIG follows a variety of many other policy actions that imply a massive – and often flawed – government intervention in the financial markets and the economy: the bail-out of the Bear Stearns creditors; the bail-out of Fannie and Freddie; the use of the Fed balance sheet (hundreds of billions of safe US Treasuries swapped for junk, toxic, illiquid private securities); the use of the other GSEs (the Federal Home Loan Bank system) to provide hundreds of billions of dollars of "liquidity" to distressed, illiquid and insolvent mortgage lenders; the use of the SEC to manipulate the stock market (through restrictions on short sales).
Then there's the use of the US Treasury to manipulate the mortgage market, the creation of a whole host of new bail-out facilities to prop and rescue banks and, for the first time since the Great Depression, to bail out non-bank financial institutions.
This is the biggest and most socialist government intervention in economic affairs since the formation of the Soviet Union and Communist China. So foreign investors are now welcome to the USSRA (the United Socialist State Republic of America) where they can earn fat spreads relative to Treasuries on agency debt and never face any credit risks (not even the subordinated debt-holders who made a fortune yesterday as those claims were also made whole).
Like scores of evangelists and hypocrites and moralists who spew and praise family values and pretend to be holier than thou and are then regularly caught cheating or found to be perverts, these Bush hypocrites who spewed for years the glory of unfettered Wild West laissez-faire jungle capitalism allowed the biggest debt bubble ever to fester without any control, and have caused the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
They are are now forced to perform the biggest government intervention and nationalisations in the recent history of humanity, all for the benefit of the rich and the well connected. So Comrades Bush and Paulson and Bernanke will rightly pass to the history books as a troika of Bolsheviks who turned the USA into the USSRA.
Zealots of any religion are always pests that cause havoc with their inflexible fanaticism – but they usually don't run the biggest economy in the world. These laissez faire voodoo-economics zealots in charge of the USA have now caused the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression and the nastiest economic crisis in decades.
This article first appeared on Nouriel Roubini's blog and is edited and cross-posted here with the permission of the author. Nicknamed "Dr Doom", Professor Roubini is now widely acknowledged as having accurately predicted the present crises in financial markets......along with Neurotoxin of GetBig.Com ;D
NT
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Good post. I was wondering though, you don't seem very critical of Obama's spending plans nor his decision to just shift troops from one place to another, that won't save us money either. Do you think he would still be a better choice and could you explain why?
BD, i was simply pointing out the ramifications of 4 more yrs of Bush/McCain type fiscal policy. think about this, George W Bush in only 8 yrs has increased the US deficit more than ALL 42 previous US presidents COMBINED. Bush has spent like a drunken sailor with absolutely no regard for it's long term implications. (not to mention his disastrous housing and loan policies which created the worst housing crises since the Great Depression.) also, do not forget the bailing out of Wall Street with more tax payer dollars borrowed from China.
BD, although i'm not a big fan of Obama, (i've never voted for a Dem) ending the war in Iraq will save at least 12 BILLION per month of borrowed money from China which is a good start. also, once the Iraq debacle ends, oil supply concerns will diminish, helping to reduce runaway gas prices and systemic inflation. this will enable Americans to once again SAVE. we must also end the Bush/McCain tax breaks for the wealthy and the ExxonMobil's of the world. how do we give wealthy people/corporations BILLIONS in tax breaks when our country is financially broke ?
trust me, Obama is no savior. in fact MY taxes will rise significantly if he's elected. under normal circumstances, that fact ALONE would make me vote against him. but these times are different. imo, the Bush/McCain fiscal INSANITY must end..........now.
we must ALL put country ahead of political affiliation in these historic troubling times.
NT
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WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve said Sunday it had granted a request by the country's last two major investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to change their status to bank holding companies.
The Fed announced that it had approved the request of the two investment banks. The change in status will allow them to create commercial banks that will be able to take deposits, bolstering the resources of both institutions.
The change continued the biggest restructuring on Wall Street since the Great Depression
NT
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Public losses for private gain: The effective nationalisation of huge sectors of the economy means US taxpayers are picking up the tab for failing banks.
Nouriel Roubini
guardian.co.uk
Thursday, September 18, 2008
With the nationalisation of Fannie and Freddie, comrades Bush, Paulson and Bernanke started transforming the US into the USSRA (United Socialist State Republic of America).
This transformation of the US into a country where there is socialism for the rich, the well-connected and Wall Street (ie, where profits are privatised and losses are socialised) continues today with the nationalisation of AIG.
This latest action on AIG follows a variety of many other policy actions that imply a massive – and often flawed – government intervention in the financial markets and the economy: the bail-out of the Bear Stearns creditors; the bail-out of Fannie and Freddie; the use of the Fed balance sheet (hundreds of billions of safe US Treasuries swapped for junk, toxic, illiquid private securities); the use of the other GSEs (the Federal Home Loan Bank system) to provide hundreds of billions of dollars of "liquidity" to distressed, illiquid and insolvent mortgage lenders; the use of the SEC to manipulate the stock market (through restrictions on short sales).
Then there's the use of the US Treasury to manipulate the mortgage market, the creation of a whole host of new bail-out facilities to prop and rescue banks and, for the first time since the Great Depression, to bail out non-bank financial institutions.
This is the biggest and most socialist government intervention in economic affairs since the formation of the Soviet Union and Communist China. So foreign investors are now welcome to the USSRA (the United Socialist State Republic of America) where they can earn fat spreads relative to Treasuries on agency debt and never face any credit risks (not even the subordinated debt-holders who made a fortune yesterday as those claims were also made whole).
Like scores of evangelists and hypocrites and moralists who spew and praise family values and pretend to be holier than thou and are then regularly caught cheating or found to be perverts, these Bush hypocrites who spewed for years the glory of unfettered Wild West laissez-faire jungle capitalism allowed the biggest debt bubble ever to fester without any control, and have caused the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
They are are now forced to perform the biggest government intervention and nationalisations in the recent history of humanity, all for the benefit of the rich and the well connected. So Comrades Bush and Paulson and Bernanke will rightly pass to the history books as a troika of Bolsheviks who turned the USA into the USSRA.
Zealots of any religion are always pests that cause havoc with their inflexible fanaticism – but they usually don't run the biggest economy in the world. These laissez faire voodoo-economics zealots in charge of the USA have now caused the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression and the nastiest economic crisis in decades.
This article first appeared on Nouriel Roubini's blog and is edited and cross-posted here with the permission of the author. Nicknamed "Dr Doom", Professor Roubini is now widely acknowledged as having accurately predicted the present crises in financial markets......along with Neurotoxin of GetBig.Com ;D
NT
Good for you! Didn't Ron Paul predict the present crises too, like five years ago?
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Good for you! Didn't Ron Paul predict the present crises too, like five years ago?
the last sentence in red was simply a joke. ;)
i have personally NOT followed Ron Paul the last 5 years. i usually watch the economic numbers myself. this way i'm completely objective in my analysis.
listening to others clouds MY judgement.
NT
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GBers, remember that we are nearing bonus season on WS. with that in mind, if the Dow can hold the recent low of 10,460 over the coming days/weeks, expect the usual holiday/bonus season rally to occur.......regardless of underlying economic fundamentals.
NT
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Short-sale ban list expanded to include GE, GM and American Express.
Pushing on to shore up the markets, the list of banned short-sale stocks has been expanded to include the likes of General Electric Co., General Motors Corp. and American Express Co.
The three companies' shares are all part of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average.
NT
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GBers, every tool is being utilized by the Fed. to prop the market and spark a rally.
NT
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How bad do you think this financial crisis will get?
Oil just shot up $20.00 a barrel this afternoon.
They are predicting oil prices could get as high as $300.00 per barrel.
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tracking the market on a daily basis can help the average investor get a feel for sediment and tone of the market. anyone who has consistently followed me over the last year knows what i'm referring to. overall market tone plays a significant psychological role in whether institutions are more likely to be buying or selling.
so, with that in mind here's today's fishwrap:
Sept. 22 U.S. stocks dropped, led by banks, retailers and technology companies, on speculation the Treasury's plan to buy toxic assets from financial firms will fail to prevent a recession and as a $15-a-barrel jump in oil threatened to damp consumer spending.
The S&P 500 retreated 48 points, or 3.8 percent, to 1,207.08 at 3:49 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 378.24, or 3.3 percent, to 11,010.2. The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 89.74, or 4 percent, to 2,184.16. Seven stocks retreated for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
They really haven't changed the economic fundamentals at all,'' said Jeffrey Coons, co-director of research at Manning & Napier Advisors Inc. in Fairport, New York, which manages $18 billion. ``We still have a debt-laden U.S. consumer facing falling employment. That's going to be overhanging our economy for some time.''
NT
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Sept. 23 Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's $700 billion proposal to stabilize the banking system may push the national debt to the highest level since 1954, threatening an erosion of foreign appetite for U.S. bonds.
The plan, which asks Congress for funds to buy devalued securities from financial institutions, would drive the debt above 70 percent of gross domestic product and the annual budget gap to an all-time high, possibly exceeding $1 trillion next year, economists estimated.
This is sobering, absolutely sobering, even to someone who doesn't drink said Stan Collender, a former analyst for the House and Senate budget committees.
NT
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Sept. 23 U.S. lawmakers may seek to include commodity speculation limits in legislation designed to rescue banks from bad mortgage investments after a squeeze in oil trading sent crude to a record gain.
Crude oil for October delivery yesterday climbed more than $25 a barrel in New York Mercantile Exchange trading, before settling 16 percent higher at $120.92 as the contract expired. The fluctuation, the biggest since Nymex crude trading started in 1983, prompted the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to say it was ``closely monitoring'' prices for manipulation.
NT
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Up to 10,000 staff at the New York office of the bankrupt investment bank Lehman Brothers will share a bonus pool set aside for them that is worth $2.5 Billion Barclays Bank, which is buying the business, confirmed last night.
bankruptcy with 2.5 Billion in bonus' ?
business as usual.
NT
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please read my earlier post below. it accurately describes how we got to this point.
NT
when it comes to finance and markets, i'm DEAD SERIOUS. although i prefer to remain completely anonymous with regards to my job, i will offer an unbiased assessment of where the economy and markets are ultimately headed. judge me only on information i can provide. i'm NOT interested in obtaining business, those days are long gone. i'm just trying to help the average guy who usually gets killed when markets crash.
in the past 4 yrs the market has run-up very nicely. this move was based on the Fed lowering prime interest rates to historic lows in an attempt to stimulate the consumer and the economy. at the time it worked great by stimulating the housing market which increased production and consumer spending. (consumer spending is 70% of our nations GDP) as consumers home values rose, they began to borrow against their homes prompting a record number of home equity loans to be taken out which again increased consumer spending. (people were using their homes as ATM machines) secondly, a large percentage of mortgages were ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) combined with no doc loans. (no documentation of income needed to obtain the loans)
as all this was happening, the Dow went higher and higher and everyone from mainstreet to Washington was happy. NO ONE was looking at the potential disaster the above scenario could later create. fast forward to 2006-2007.......all the cheap "no doc" ARM loans would start to reset HIGHER pushing an already borrowed/tapped out consumer to pay higher mortgage rates they cannot afford. additionally, as money is made cheap to obtain, it causes INFLATION and a WEAK dollar. (higher prices with less buying power) this is evidenced by soaring home prices, gas, food, etc. all of this has been compounded by the vast out of control war spending/borrowing.....further weakening the greenback. as the US currency weakens (currently at an all time low) nations want more money for their goods, pushing prices of all imports HIGHER. the only bright side to a weak dollar is increased exports, which DO NOT offset higher import prices.
so, how does all this relate to the coming market crash ? well, the market rose from 9,000 to 14,200 on all the economic stimulation provided by the short lived housing boom and the markets have yet to adjust to the housing bust, the credit crunch, record forclosures,high inflation, record gas and oil prices and a now weak consumer who can no longer borrow like a drunken sailor. in markets, there is a specific "lag time" which enables guys like me to GET OUT before the crash/reality hits. just like in 2000 (i was OUT of tech stocks in march........market crashed in april ) history tends to repeat it's self. again, it's not a matter of if........it's a matter of when.
the perfect storm is brewing........
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GBers, as you know the Fed recently stopped shorts selling in 799 financial firms. yesterday, GM, GE and American Express was added to the anti-shorting list. in addition, the fed is now looking into "oil speculators," with the intent to drive oil prices lower.
all the above measures (combined with the 700 billion bailout) are a desperate attempt designed to rally the market higher.
as i've stated before, if we hold the Dow low of 10,470.00, i'd expect a nice short cover rally.
NT
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Guys, the Feds biggest fear right now is PENSION FUNDS. if the markets continues to tank, the Feds afraid of having to bail them out also.
if that occurs, all hell will break loose. paulson and big ben are attempting to smooth out the market on capital hill today.
NT
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Up to 10,000 staff at the New York office of the bankrupt investment bank Lehman Brothers will share a bonus pool set aside for them that is worth $2.5 Billion Barclays Bank, which is buying the business, confirmed last night.
bankruptcy with 2.5 Billion in bonus' ?
business as usual.
NT
I know, it pisses me off to no end when I see a CEO who destroys a company & then gets millions. Shit give me a chance to do that. I'll take down any company within a year's time & I'll do it for $500,000.
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U.S. Stocks Fall in Market's Worst Two-Day Drop Since 2002
Sept. 23 U.S. stocks fell in the market's worst two-day slump in six years on concern Congress will hold up a $700 billion bank bailout that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said is critical to preventing a recession.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid 18.87 points, or 1.6 percent, to 1,188.22, capping a two-day decline of 5.3 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 161.52, or 1.5 percent, to 10,854.17, erasing a 128-point rally. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 25.64, or 1.2 percent, to 2,153.34. Almost three stocks fell for each that gained on the New York Stock Exchange.
``The credit crunch is going to become far more severe than anybody thought two weeks ago,'' said Tom Wirth, senior investment officer at Chemung Canal Trust Co. in Elmira, New York, which manages $1.7 billion. ``In my opinion this is not understood by the politicians in Washington.''
NT
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``In my opinion this is not understood by the politicians in Washington.''
NT
Except Ron Paul! ;D
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;D
(http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/afp/20080923/capt.cps.nrj65.230908203126.photo02.photo.default-512x341.jpg)
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GBers, as you know the Fed recently stopped shorts selling in 799 financial firms. yesterday, GM, GE and American Express was added to the anti-shorting list. in addition, the fed is now looking into "oil speculators," with the intent to drive oil prices lower.
all the above measures (combined with the 700 billion bailout) are a desperate attempt designed to rally the market higher.
as i've stated before, if we hold the Dow low of 10,470.00, i'd expect a nice short cover rally.
opinion unchanged.
NT
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Sept. 24 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. is facing ``grave threats'' to financial stability and warned that the credit crisis has started to damage household and business spending.
``Economic activity appears to have decelerated broadly,'' Bernanke said today to a congressional Joint Economic Committee hearing, downgrading the assessment of Fed officials when they met on Sept. 16. ``Stabilization of our financial system is an essential precondition for economic recovery.''
GBers, if Bernanke had just read "The Dow Thread," he would've known about this crisis almost a year ago. ;)
NT
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(http://i86.photobucket.com/albums/k101/weatherbill/paulson_bernanke_hearing600-1.jpg)
Paulsonus Treasurasaurus
Benus Fiatus Fedasaurus
Barnus Advisor-ass-asaurus
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GBers, right now the market is being held up by the financial's/banks (no short selling allowed) until bush's 700 BILLION bailout pushes through.
if we hold the low of 10,470.00 and a bailout plan is reached, expect a BIG short cover rally.
everyone's just waiting to pull the trigger. ;)
all opinion, no advice.
NT
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GBers, below are the latest pathetic economic numbers released today. IMO, they'll have ZERO effect on market direction.
the market is focused on ONE item. bush's bailout......period.
no WS trader will short this market before the announcement.
all opinion, no advice.
NT
WASHINGTON 9/25 Orders for U.S.-made durable goods sank in August, falling 4.5% on weaker demand for a broad range of goods, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding the 8.9% decrease in transportation goods, orders fell 3.0%, the sharpest drop in nineteen months. The decrease exceeded the expected 2.0% fall forecast by economists. It was the largest drop in total orders since January. The report was weak across the board. Shipments fell 3.5% in August, the largest decline since April 2001. Inventories rose 0.7%
Also:
WASHINGTON 9/25 U.S. weekly jobless claims shot to their highest level in seven years, the Labor Department said Thursday, as people in the hurricane-hit states of Louisiana and Texas filed for benefits. First-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped by 32,000, to 493,000 for the week ending Sept. 20. The four-week average of claims also jumped, by 16,000, to 462,500, the highest since November 2001. Continuing claims were at 3.54 million for the week ending Sept. 13, a five-year high.
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GBers, right now the market is being held up by the financial's/banks (no short selling allowed) until bush's 700 BILLION bailout pushes through.
if we hold the low of 10,470.00 and a bailout plan is reached, expect a BIG short cover rally.
everyone's just waiting to pull the trigger. ;)
U.S. stocks soar on hopes for bailout for banks
NEW YORK U.S. stocks sailed higher Thursday afternoon after lawmakers announced basic agreement on a rescue package for the embattled financial sector, helping overtake grim economic data, including a slump in new-home sales. After climbing 300 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 196.00 points to close at 11,022.06 +1.82%
NT
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Could be a very rough Friday.
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i'm completely shocked ! ;)
NT
JPMorgan Buys WaMu Deposits as Regulators Seize Failed Thrift
Sept. 26 JPMorgan Chase & Co. became the biggest U.S. bank by deposits, acquiring Washington Mutual Inc.'s branch network for $1.9 billion after the thrift was seized in the largest U.S. bank failure in history.
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GBers, the enormity of our current banking problems are NOT being told to the public.
IMO, it's imperative you understand and stay out of harms way.
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Could be a very rough Friday.
Due to McCain's derailing of the Rescue Plan (for his own political gain), you may be right.
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market's virtually on hold, waiting for bailout announcement.
NT
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market's virtually on hold, waiting for bailout announcement.
NT
Yeah, NT. :)
I think the equity markets are really already assuming a deal will get done. I'm no expert on the credit markets, but from what I understand there is still broad skepticism there. The rate in which banks loan to other banks, the interest rate the federal gov't gets on loans, etc., will help let us know how receptive the market is to any type of rescue plan. In other words, very short term investments like t-bills.
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Yeah, NT. :)
I think the equity markets are really already assuming a deal will get done. I'm no expert on the credit markets, but from what I understand there is still broad skepticism there. The rate in which banks loan to other banks, the interest rate the federal gov't gets on loans, etc., will help let us know how receptive the market is to any type of rescue plan. In other words, very short term investments like t-bills.
correct, that's why you had some late afternoon short covering before the weekend. Dow was up 121.00 points on light volume. your point on skepticism is dead on. too much uncertainty surrounds this bailout, with too many unanswered questions.
furthermore, this bailout will not change the underlying fundamentals of our weak economy.
that aside, i still expect a short cover rally after the announcement.
NT
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Would it be a good or bad idea to buy a bunch of these bank stocks while they're around $2.00 a share? ???
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Would it be a good or bad idea to buy a bunch of these bank stocks while they're around $2.00 a share? ???
personally, i like the longterm prospects of AIG. ( 80% of Co. is now owned by the Fed.)
a 75.00 stock now trading in the 3.00 range. ;)
no advice, all opinion.
NT
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IMO, avoid Wachovia.
anyone using a Wachovia bank, should be careful with their deposits.
NT
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(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3053/2896260825_ba68184e20_o.jpg)
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NT, I would like your opinion on this persons outlook on the bailout.
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BD, there is no good answer to this bailout crisis.
complete inaction = depression.
700 Billion bailout = deep recession.
pick your poison.
NT
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NT,
Is it time to go radical and simply do away with stock markets altogether?
They don't actually PRODUCE anything other than speculation.
Is it time for a Bolivian style common man revolution...?
How bad does it have to get before we have wealth redistribution and debt dissolution at the end of a gun barrel?
The Luke
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GBers, as you know the Fed recently stopped shorts selling in 799 financial firms. yesterday, GM, GE and American Express was added to the anti-shorting list. in addition, the fed is now looking into "oil speculators," with the intent to drive oil prices lower.
all the above measures (combined with the 700 billion bailout) are a desperate attempt designed to rally the market higher.
as i've stated before, if we hold the Dow low of 10,470.00, i'd expect a nice short cover rally.
GBers, imo any "rally" off the bailout will probably be short lived. my opinion on the above post remains unchanged.
be careful.
NT
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Bailout Package Fails As Dow Plunges
In an extraordinary gamble on the future of the global economy, the House of Representatives voted down the $700 billion Wall Street bill 205-228, as Republicans defied their president, their presidential nominee and their leaders to vote nearly two to one against the measure described as crucial to the prevention of an economic collapse.
NT
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there is no good answer to this bailout crisis.
complete inaction = depression.
700 Billion bailout = deep recession.
pick your poison.
NT
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So far the market's down 622 today. It might be raining brokers soon.
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So far the market's down 622 today. It might be raining brokers soon.
HAHA! Nice one.
Brokers are funny people most are pretty ignorant, I love mine and he has made me more money than I ever thought. One of the smartest guys I know, but if he will tell you the same thing about himself lol.
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Stocks, Oil Plunge After Congress Rejects Bailout
Sept. 29 U.S. stocks plunged 777 points and oil plunged and Treasury bonds rallied the most in two weeks after U.S. lawmakers rejected the Bush administration's $700 billion financial rescue.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell as much as 7.2 percent, the most since Oct. 26, 1987, as 490 companies declined. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets sank 5.9 percent, the steepest decline in the measure's 38-year history. Trading on Brazil's Bovespa was halted after the main stock index plummeted 10 percent. The euro and the pound sank and bonds rose as governments raced to prop up banks infected by growing U.S. mortgage losses. Crude futures tumbled more than $11 a barrel.
``This was sold as the last straw, the thing that was going to fix everything and it looked like it was going to pass,'' said Walter ``Bucky'' Hellwig, who helps oversee $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama. ``There's disappointment that we have this continued stress in the financial sector.''
imo congress is playing with fire.
they might want to reconsider.
NT
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HAHA! Nice one.
Brokers are funny people most are pretty ignorant, I love mine and he has made me more money than I ever thought. One of the smartest guys I know, but if he will tell you the same thing about himself lol.
I work with a lot of brokers in my line of work and you're right, some are pretty bad and some are good but almost all are arrogant....it's a comptetitive field.
I remember Black Monday/Tuesday and brokers taking the cold way out just b/c they lost money. That I don't understand.
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My stock picks from earlier this year on investopedia are still doing good. 30% return after today's huge fall.
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
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My stock picks from earlier this year on investopedia are still doing good. 30% return after today's huge fall.
good job HC, start using "live rounds" ;)
NT
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Is this fair to say? The fall didn't start after, it started right away this morning before the bill was rejected. I'm getting the feeling it would have done the same today either way. People are saying we're fucked if it passes and people are saying we're fucked if it doesn't. Is it then right to relate today to the bill not passing? :-\
Stocks tumble as bailout plan fails in House. "Fear sweeps through financial markets after the House rejects a $700 billion bailout plan."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wall_street
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Is this fair to say? The fall didn't start after, it started right away this morning before the bill was rejected. I'm getting the feeling it would have done the same today either way. People are saying we're fucked if it passes and people are saying we're fucked if it doesn't. Is it then right to relate today to the bill not passing? :-\
Stocks tumble as bailout plan fails in House. "Fear sweeps through financial markets after the House rejects a $700 billion bailout plan."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wall_street
yes you're correct. 2 banks failed across the pond resulting in a 4.5 % selloff overseas.
that's how the day started....
NT
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January 19, 2001: 10,587.59
September 29, 2008: 10,365.45
NASDAQ Jan 19, 2001 = 2770.38
NASDAQ September 29, 2008 = 1983.73
NT
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GBers... in the end, a bailout bill will have to pass. doing nothing is not a viable option.
regardless of the bailout, our economy is still headed for a severe recession which i expect to linger thru 2009.
upcoming holiday sales will confirm my opinion.
NT
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owning a printing press sure comes in handy. ;)
NT
Fed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System
Sept. 29 The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression.
The Fed's expansion of liquidity, the biggest since credit markets seized up last year, came hours before the U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion bailout for the financial industry. The crisis is reverberating through the global economy, causing stocks to plunge and forcing European governments to rescue four banks over the past two days alone
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owning a printing press sure comes in handy. ;)
NT
Fed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System
Sept. 29 The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression.
The Fed's expansion of liquidity, the biggest since credit markets seized up last year, came hours before the U.S. House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion bailout for the financial industry. The crisis is reverberating through the global economy, causing stocks to plunge and forcing European governments to rescue four banks over the past two days alone
could you explain how they pump money into the system? They print it, then what? Who gets it?
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I also have a question about this Suze Orman, she just warned off a caller from buying into the market. I'm new to this but this seems like the prime time to hunt for undervalued stocks. Just going off of her demeaner, she sounds like a crazed cocaine addict who is actually for real insane. Hook me up here NT? Is she full of shit?
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could you explain how they pump money into the system? They print it, then what? Who gets it?
When the government "prints" up a treasury bond and sells it to the Fed, it becomes an asset on the books of the Fed and they can create new loans from that asset at 9:1
There is only one way to create money, and that is by leveraging off of a debt instrument, promissory note (Treasury bond), etc.
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When the government "prints" up a treasury bond and sells it to the Fed, it becomes an asset on the books of the Fed and they can create new loans from that asset at 9:1
There is only one way to create money, and that is by leveraging off of a debt instrument, promissory note (Treasury bond), etc.
thanks! What is being leveraged off to create the new money? Or did I misunderstand?
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I also have a question about this Suze Orman, she just warned off a caller from buying into the market. I'm new to this but this seems like the prime time to hunt for undervalued stocks. Just going off of her demeaner, she sounds like a crazed cocaine addict who is actually for real insane. Hook me up here NT? Is she full of shit?
They have ALL been full of shit. How many journalists and financial "talking heads" have pumped the "Max the 401k", "Max the Roth IRA", and BUY! BUY! BUY! mentality for a long term investment approach?
It all sounds fine and dandy until you see a complete meltdown of the market, and all of a sudden you start to think "Hey, maybe the value of my stock isn't going to go back up."
Listening to anyone on TV (maybe outside of Peter Schiff) is financial suicide.
That is why I have been a supporter of NT's thread from day one. I could see that things were not good, and he was one of the very few to have the balls to state it for the record, and stay with his opinion.
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I also have a question about this Suze Orman, she just warned off a caller from buying into the market. I'm new to this but this seems like the prime time to hunt for undervalued stocks. Just going off of her demeaner, she sounds like a crazed cocaine addict who is actually for real insane. Hook me up here NT? Is she full of shit?
Suze Orman is the financial guru for the Oprah crowd. She's been a guest on Oprah for years.
She teaches money management. Every so often Oprah brings her on to do a Neuro Toxin for her audience.
She was on the other day, ...and was sooo forceful and opinionated about her advice that Oprah admitted to making quite a few phone calls after they finished taping. Oprah seemed real happy about those phone calls she made too.
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thanks! What is being leveraged off to create the new money? Or did I misunderstand?
The government prints a Treasury Bond out of thin air. When they sell it on the open market, this creates more government debt, but does not create monetary inflation because no new money was created.
When they sell it to the Fed, the Federal Reserve Bank will credit the account of the Treasury for the amount of the Bond (this option creates monetary inflation).
The money is created out of thin air, but it is disguised with the banking involved.
So the Fed now has an asset - the Treasury Bond, the Government's Promise to Pay (promissory note). Banks can use assets to create new money that they do not have. So if that Government Bond was for 1,000,000,000 - the Fed can create 9,000,000,000 in new money to lend to banks, governments, etc. For practical purposes, there really is no limit to the amount of money they can create.
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When the government "prints" up a treasury bond and sells it to the Fed, it becomes an asset on the books of the Fed and they can create new loans from that asset at 9:1
There is only one way to create money, and that is by leveraging off of a debt instrument, promissory note (Treasury bond), etc.
Interesting... Suze adamantly said the ONLY place Americans should be putting their money in this current climate is in Treasury bills.
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something stinks...
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something stinks...
In what regards?
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Interesting... Suze adamantly said the ONLY place Americans should be putting their money in this current climate is in Treasury bills.
The Treasury Bond is the backing of our dollar. It is the government's pledge to first dibs on the labor of all 14th amendment citizens through the income tax.
As soon as American's stop making payment on debts, the whole system collapses.
Since our bankruptcy on March 9th of 1933 - the sweat equity of the American "citizen" is all that was left to mortgage to the International Bankers.
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Suze Orman is the financial guru for the Oprah crowd. She's been a guest on Oprah for years.
She teaches money management. Every so often Oprah brings her on to do a Neuro Toxin for her audience.
She was on the other day, ...and was sooo forceful and opinionated about her advice that Oprah admitted to making quite a few phone calls after they finished taping. Oprah seemed real happy about those phone calls she made too.
Maybe Suze and Oprah should run for President and VP. ::)
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WTF? This bitch, suze, is back on Larry King with absolute warnings not to invest in the market at this time. I call BS... IMO now would be the absolutley best time to hunt for the right stock. I think this fucking bitch is hooking up her buddies. Your loss on the early worm is her and her friend's gain... NT, opinion? again, newb alert, I'm pretty fresh into reading this book lol...
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ldsfkjlfdg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Damn lag. Sorry, ignore.
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WTF? This bitch, suze, is back on Larry King with absolute warnings not to invest in the market at this time. I call BS... IMO now would be the absolutley best time to hunt for the right stock. I think this fucking bitch is hooking up her buddies. Your loss on the early worm is her and her friend's gain... NT, opinion? again, newb alert, I'm pretty fresh into reading this book lol...
Only if you're planning to go long. The real money was made when the guys shorted.
I think this is where most people get confused IMO.
It's not when you have a bull market that the wealth is created. That's when alot of little guys see a few bucks, here & there. The returns are diminishes by the overall numbers sharing in the windfall.
It's during the crash that fortunes are made and tremendous amounts of wealth are transferred into the hands of a few.
It's like a $10,000,000 dollar lottery jackpot shared among 100 million lottery players. Ya, each gets a piece of the prize? Whoopteydoo, ...they've all made a dime. Or, you could have 100,000 million lottery players, with only 2 sets of winning numbers. 999,999,998 people lost big time, ...but there are 2 guys happier than a pig in poop.
Alot has been said about the stock market crash of 1929 which ushered in the great depression, ...but what they won't tell you is that in that crash... fortunes were made.
Perhaps, this is simply their way of letting Buzzy Krongard finally collect his stock market windfall that he couldn't collect on Sept 12, 2001 (http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/em/shrug.gif)
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Only if you're planning to go long. The real money was made when the guys shorted.
I think this is where most people get confused IMO.
It's not when you have a bull market that the wealth is created. That's when alot of little guys see a few bucks, here & there. The returns are diminishes by the overall numbers sharing in the windfall.
It's during the crash that fortunes are made and tremendous amounts of wealth are transferred into the hands of a few.
It's like a $10,000,000 dollar lottery jackpot shared among 100 million lottery players. Ya, each gets a piece of the prize? Whoopteydoo, ...they've all made a dime. Or, you could have 100,000 million lottery players, with only 2 sets of winning numbers. 999,999,998 people lost big time, ...but there are 2 guys happier than a pig in poop.
Alot has been said about the stock market crash of 1929 which ushered in the great depression, ...but what they won't tell you is that in that crash... fortunes were made.
Perhaps, this is simply their way of letting Buzzy Krongard finally collect his stock market windfall that he couldn't collect on Sept 12, 2001 (http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/em/shrug.gif)
like I said, I'm new to this but I think you're wrong. I bolded the right stock. I think this is a good time to look for the right undervalued stock. For her to tell people not even to consider the market is odd to me. From what I've learned, this is the prime time to hunt. What I just said is in regards to your "only if you go long" comment. If I had played real money this year instead of investopedia I'd be happy as hell. This one year performance would have been better than buffet's %. not that this means jack first year without real money. Also they just put an end to shorting, unless i misunderstand. Anyway, if you can hit the right stock at this time, you're in the big money in a few years, not having to short or think long
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WTF? This bitch, suze, is back on Larry King with absolute warnings not to invest in the market at this time. I call BS... IMO now would be the absolutley best time to hunt for the right stock. I think this fucking bitch is hooking up her buddies. Your loss on the early worm is her and her friend's gain... NT, opinion? again, newb alert, I'm pretty fresh into reading this book lol...
you're absolutely correct. this is the precise time (when panic sets in) professionals begin looking for stocks.
pay no attention to the Cramer's and Orman's of the world, if you do, plan on losing your money.
at Dow 14,000 Cramer and Orman were saying "buy buy buy". smart money did the exact opposite.....sold short. now that everyone is saying "sell sell sell", smart money is looking at buying opportunities.
BTW, the Dow is approx. 4,000 points lower since this thread began. ;)
NT
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like I said, I'm new to this but I think you're wrong. I bolded the right stock. I think this is a good time to look for the right undervalued stock. For her to tell people not even to consider the market is odd to me. From what I've learned, this is the prime time to hunt. What I just said is in regards to your "only if you go long" comment. If I had played real money this year instead of investopedia I'd be happy as hell. This one year performance would have been better than buffet's %. not that this means jack first year without real money. Also they just put an end to shorting, unless i misunderstand. Anyway, if you can hit the right stock at this time, you're in the big money in a few years, not having to short or think long
Understand though, Suze's advise is to the Oprah viewr. They aren't in the same investment league as Oprah.
Infact, the average American is by law, shut out of the really great investments. It's almost like being invited to the party of the year, ...only to discover you're the valet parking attendant, and don't actually get to go inside. You can hear the music from out in the driveway, ...and if you hustle, ...you might pick up some good tips, ...but it's not the same as being inside mingling with the other guests, sipping champagne, or nibbling hors d'oeurves
I understand your jubilation over your choices, ...but trust me when I tell you, when you're working with real money, ...it's a whole other ballgame. I paper traded commodities for years, ...made a heckuva lot of money doing it (on paper). It's easy to make bold moves when you're just paper trading. When it comes to the real thing, ...you gotta have ovaries of steel to make the same moves.
I've always preferred commodities to stocks. I've always thought of stocks as nothing more than vapour ware, and quite frankly, ...they scare the poop out of me. Or maybe I've just read too much Kiyosaki, ...but commodities, ...to me, ...those are real, ...they're solid, ...they're tangible, ...and will always generate a demand.
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Understand though, Suze's advise is to the Oprah viewr. They aren't in the same investment league as Oprah.
Infact, the average American is by law, shut out of the really great investments. It's almost like being invited to the party of the year, ...only to discover you're the valet parking attendant, and don't actually get to go inside. You can hear the music from out in the driveway, ...and if you hustle, ...you might pick up some good tips, ...but it's not the same as being inside mingling with the other guests, sipping champagne, or nibbling hors d'oeurves
I understand your jubilation over your choices, ...but trust me when I tell you, when you're working with real money, ...it's a whole other ballgame. I paper traded commodities for years, ...made a heckuva lot of money doing it (on paper). It's easy to make bold moves when you're just paper trading. When it comes to the real thing, ...you gotta have ovaries of steel to make the same moves.
I've always preferred commodities to stocks. I've always thought of stocks as nothing more than vapour ware, and quite frankly, ...they scare the poop out of me. Or maybe I've just read too much Kiyosaki, ...but commodities, ...to me, ...those are real, ...they're solid, ...they're tangible, ...and will always generate a demand.
When I read your third sentence I could tell you were a Kiyosaki fan. In fact, the book that influenced it was his third book - Rich Dad's Guide to Investing...
Damn I'm good, now will u post some bikini shots?
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GBers... in the end, a bailout bill will have to pass. doing nothing is not a viable option.
regardless of the bailout, our economy is still headed for a severe recession which i expect to linger thru 2009.
upcoming holiday sales will confirm my opinion.
NT
I agree with you on that one. Should the relief be top down or bottom up? Or some combination of the two?
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I agree with you on that one. Should the relief be top down or bottom up? Or some combination of the two?
our economy grows when the middle class has disposable income. trickle down economic's has never proven itself to bear fruit.
NT
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typical short cover rally after an 800 point decline. Dow advanced 485 points on light volume.
NT
Stocks Extend Gains, But Volume Remains Soft
9/30/2008 Stocks pushed higher late Tuesday, further recouping the prior session's huge losses. But despite the indexes' big gains, there were few highly ranked issues rising on heavy volume.
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our economy grows when the middle class has disposable income. trickle down economic's has never proven itself to bear fruit.
NT
I like the way you think.
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as you can see, our Government releases false data on a regular basis.
NT
NEW YORK - Government data showed Americans’ confidence in the economy unexpectedly improved in September, but it still hovers near a 16-year low as they wrestle with a weak job market, higher food and fuel prices, and the worst financial crisis in decades.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index is now at 59.8, up from a revised 58.5 in August. Economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR expected a reading of 55.5.
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Stocks, Oil Plunge After Congress Rejects Bailout
imo congress is playing with fire.
they might want to reconsider
NT
Sept. 30 President George W. Bush and Senate leaders vowed today to revive a $700 billion financial rescue plan amid evidence voters and lawmakers regretted yesterday's U.S. House vote to kill the bailout.
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky predicted lawmakers would wrap up work on the plan by the end of this week. A plunge in U.S. markets, partially erased today, makes it clear Congress must act, he said.
I think the message from the markets yesterday was clear,'' McConnell said.
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GBers.... i anticipate a nice move to the UPSIDE once bailout #2 is voted on and passed.
banks will be the big movers imo.
NT
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i wouldn't expect the market to react negatively to bad economic news.
it's all about the bailout.....for now.
btw, a manufacturing index below 50, points to a recession.
NT
U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Contracts Most Since 2001 Recession
Oct. 1 Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in September at the fastest pace since the last recession as the credit crisis spread beyond Wall Street.
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index dropped to 43.5, the lowest level since October 2001 and below economists' forecasts, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported today. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
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more economic data (car sales) shows our economy slowing/contracting substantially.
a midterm market bottom looks apparent at this point. i expect a bear market rally in response to the bailout program, then we take the next leg downward as the economy/recession come back into focus.
NT
Oct. 1 Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. posted their worst monthly U.S. sales performances in more than two decades, leading a September decline of 27 percent for the six largest automakers as credit tightened.
Sales of cars and light trucks declined 35 percent from a year earlier at Ford, 32 percent at Toyota and 24 percent at Honda. Chrysler LLC's fell 33 percent and Nissan Motor Co.'s slid 37 percent. General Motors Corp.'s dropped 16 percent
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factory orders fell by 5% along with rising jobless claims. with that said, i still believe a short cover rally will occur when the house passes the bailout bill.
i must stress, this is a professional traders market only. IMO long term investors should sit on the sidelines and stay out of harms way until this economic storm passes.
NT
NEW YORK Stocks fell steeply Thursday, Dow dropping 348 points with concerns about the economy returning to the fore as rising jobless claims and plunging factory orders offset hopes that the $700 billion financial-bailout plan will pass Congress after being approved by the Senate.
the market's decline today is on the back of dismal economic numbers," said Peter Cardillo, market economist at Avalon Partners.
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GBers, more proof pointing to US recession in jobs data released today.
NT
Oct. 3 The U.S. lost the most jobs in five years in September and earnings rose less than forecast as the credit crisis deepened the economic slowdown.
Payrolls fell by 159,000, more than anticipated, after a 73,000 decline in August, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate, the last one reported before the presidential election, remained at 6.1 percent. Hours worked reached the lowest level since records began in 1964.
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personally, i like the longterm prospects of AIG. ( 80% of Co. is now owned by the Fed.)
a 75.00 stock now trading in the 3.00 range. ;)
no advice, all opinion.
NT
now trading near 5.00
+65% and counting. ;)
NT
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more economic data (car sales) shows our economy slowing/contracting substantially.
a midterm market bottom looks apparent at this point. i expect a bear market rally in response to the bailout program, then we take the next leg downward as the economy/recession come back into focus.
NT
Oct. 1 Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. posted their worst monthly U.S. sales performances in more than two decades, leading a September decline of 27 percent for the six largest automakers as credit tightened.
Sales of cars and light trucks declined 35 percent from a year earlier at Ford, 32 percent at Toyota and 24 percent at Honda. Chrysler LLC's fell 33 percent and Nissan Motor Co.'s slid 37 percent. General Motors Corp.'s dropped 16 percent
I had to meet with a client Wednesday who's been in the car sales business for 35 years. He said he's never seen sales this bad before...that includes Ford's tenure, Carter's malaise, Reagan's imports and so on.
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now trading near 5.00
+65% and counting. ;)
NT
any projection for how high it might go
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on friday before the bailout was announced the market rallied 300+ points only to be SOLD OFF before the closing bell.
guys, this market should be avoided at all costs.
the worst is yet to come imo.
NT
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
cash is king !
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When I read your third sentence I could tell you were a Kiyosaki fan. In fact, the book that influenced it was his third book - Rich Dad's Guide to Investing...
I was thinking more of Rich Dad's Prophecy: Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash in History is Still Coming (http://www.amazon.com/Rich-Dads-Prophecy-Coming-Yourself/dp/0446690341/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1223285844&sr=1-5)
penned in 2002
Damn I'm good, now will u post some bikini shots?
sure thing :P
(http://www.bikiniatoll.com/BikiniansThenNow.jpg)
Above left: Bikinian children leaving Bikini, March 7, 1946 (US Archives),
Above right: children on Kili Island, 2007. Photo © Jack Niedenthal
Today, while the people of Bikini have yet to resettle their homeland, the island is populated by Bikini Project Department construction workers and some U.S. Department of Energy staff. There is, however, a large population of Bikinians living elsewhere in the Marshall Islands and overseas who hope to have the ability to return to their homeland someday soon.
(http://www.bikiniatoll.com/bravoMATT.jpg)
Above: The March 1, 1954 Bravo hydrogen bomb crater. Photo © Matt Harris
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GBers, during this economic meltdown/crisis, i'd expect Dow 7,500 to be tested on the downside.
NT
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GBers, don't say you weren't warned.
NT
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
cash is king !
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
if you decide to stay in stocks for the time being......definitely get OUT after Christmas.
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9,600 should act as temporary support for the Dow.
NT
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as expected we bounced off Dow 9,600.00 to close @ 9,955.00
NT
Indexes End Deep, But Late Rally Trims Some Losses
Posted 10/6/2008
The subprime mortgage-turned-banking crisis officially unraveled on a global scale Monday, sparking a worldwide rout that sent commodities prices sprawling and worldwide markets to record-setting losses. :o
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index retreated 3.9 percent, extending the worst weekly slump since 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 370 points, closing at 9,955.00. Both gauges pared declines of more than 7.7 percent in the final hour as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
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Are There Are Any Safe Investments Left?
Monday October 6, 2008
CityNews.ca Staff
(http://www.citynews.ca/images/2008-10/oct0608-investpic.jpg)
The 1980s recession. The dot-com bubble burst. David Robertson lived through them both, and grimaced both times as he saw the hit to his investments.
But the 67-year-old admits he's never seen anything like the current financial crisis in the U.S. and around the globe.
"I'm down about 20 percent from a year ago," he admits, describing the losses in his portfolio to CityNews Consumer Specialist Jee-Yun Lee. "On the energy side I'm probably down about 30 percent, on the mineral side I'm probably down about 25 percent."
Despite the $700-billion Wall Street bailout package being passed at the end of last week, markets are still in a tailspin over the state of the global economy. On Monday the Toronto Stock Exchange plummeted 1,200 points in early morning trading before recovering somewhat by the end of the day. Other markets around the world suffered heavy losses as well.
"I've not been through something like this before because it's in Europe, it's in the United States, and you just don't know where the shoe is going to drop tomorrow morning," Robertson notes. "I'm happy with the security I have but I wish the price was higher."
So what should small investors such as Robertson do to staunch the 'financial bleeding?'
Definitely do not panic, experts advise.
"There's nothing in the stock market that's working right now," states Paul Thornton, financial advisor for Global Maxfin Capital. "The commodity markets aren't working. Cash is really the only place to be right here."
Thornton is one of countless investors who've been watching the market mayhem and they seem to agree that there's not much to do right now but try to weather the storm. The financial expert adds that if you decide to sell your stocks, make sure to do your homework before jumping back in to the market.
"Don't try and get in before the crowd," he advises. "Wait for a true heavy volume rally to get underway before you come back into this market."
Robertson, meanwhile, doesn't plan to make any big moves.
"This is not a tidal wave I can't handle," he concludes.
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If you've got the money, buy jag. If we're not all dead in 2012, you'll be pissed you missed the opportunity. Pick the right company, one that is undervalued in all this and buy. maybe even some realestate. people are buying houses for pennies on the dollar. LOL, someone won a house on ebay for under 2 bucks!... It looked like it was a least worth 10 bucks :D but seriously, we'll make it out of this mess or be fucked anyway.
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If you've got the money, buy jag. If we're not all dead in 2012, you'll be pissed you missed the opportunity. Pick the right company, one that is undervalued in all this and buy. maybe even some realestate. people are buying houses for pennies on the dollar. LOL, someone won a house on ebay for under 2 bucks!... It looked like it was a least worth 10 bucks :D but seriously, we'll make it out of this mess or be fucked anyway.
I don't doubt there are bargains to be had, ...but I'm not interested in sitting there watching a stock ticker 24/7
there's a game going on right now... run it up, short it, ...run it up, short it. The volatility is too much for my blood right now. There are real estate bargooons by the truckloads right now. Back in the 91 recession, an ex-boyfriend taught me well how to take advantage of a market like this. Everyone around him was going belly up, ...but he had plenty of cash reserves and was not only able to weather the storm and all his commercial tenants defaulting on leases, but also able to snap up so much property it boggled the mind. When the markets rebounded, ...he was still sitting on his throne so to speak, ...and his kingdom had expanded much!
You gotta be kidding me?! Somebody bought a house on ebay for $2. Gotta link?
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as expected we bounced off Dow 9,600.00 to close @ 9,955.00
NT
Indexes End Deep, But Late Rally Trims Some Losses
Posted 10/6/2008
The subprime mortgage-turned-banking crisis officially unraveled on a global scale Monday, sparking a worldwide rout that sent commodities prices sprawling and worldwide markets to record-setting losses. :o
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index retreated 3.9 percent, extending the worst weekly slump since 2001. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 370 points, closing at 9,955.00. Both gauges pared declines of more than 7.7 percent in the final hour as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
Do you see parallels btn the Japanese economic meltdown of the 1990s and the US's today? Japan had a meltdown of its real estate market followed by slow gov. response. The Japanese malaise lasted years.
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Anyone paying atention to the DOW numbers today? They are swinging up and down, worse than a yoyo.
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Markets in Europe are taking a beating too.
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GBers....just more of the same today.
this is the perfect storm i spoke of for the last 11 months.
NT
U.S stocks beaten up as investors look for Fed cuts
10/7 U.S. stocks on Tuesday declined for a fifth session straight, extending a sharp sell-off that has the major indexes trading at or near four-year lows, as investors found little relief in the Federal Reserve's latest steps to ease frozen credit markets.
Equities remained sharply lower as minutes from the Federal Reserve's last formal meeting revealed rate cuts were put on the table at the mid-September gathering, and after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech opened the door for a possible interest-rate cut soon.
Dow closed down 508.39 to 9,447.11, (-5.1%)
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GBers, at some point a great buying opportunity will present itself in this Market. :D
until then, we patiently wait......
NT
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Do you see parallels btn the Japanese economic meltdown of the 1990s and the US's today? Japan had a meltdown of its real estate market followed by slow gov. response. The Japanese malaise lasted years.
unfortunately very similar.
NT
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Wow. This sucks.
I lost more in the market in the last three weeks than I made in salary last year. :'(
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So has the ban on short selling helped the market yet?
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So has the ban on short selling helped the market yet?
not when World Markets are crashing. :o
the Fed needs a new gimmick. ;D
NT
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GBers.....the Fed just released it's new gimmick. ;)
NT
Fed, major central banks slash rates
Oct. 8, 2008 The world's major central banks moved in concert Wednesday to slash key interest rates as policy makers struggle to head off global financial turmoil that has threatened to throttle world economic growth.
In coordinated announcements, the Fed said it had cut its key lending rate by a half point to 1.5%.
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Dow is currently down 140. I know it's still early but I think this rate cut made it's little bump and now it's full bore down. :-\
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but even if you don't make that fuckup, the car is still rolling downhill with no brakes, and trying to stop it by opening the door and dragging your foot on the ground won't do much.
It worked for Fred Flinstone? ???
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Yeah, when liquidity in the credit market is restored. The question is, when? The insiders will already have their buy orders in before the general public realizes what's going on.
Canada, US, Switzerland, Sweden etc all cut short term interest rates by .5%
Question is will consumer banks follow suit? Normally yes, ...but this time not necessarilty
According to Jim Flaherty, Canada's Conservative finance minister, the IMF predicts Canada's economy will lead all the G7/G8 nations. Supposedly while all the world takes a beating, Canada is immune because we have a strong housing market, a stable banking system, and a federal surplus.
Ontario's premier doesn't exactly agree, as he's called an emergency session in the legislature to hash things out.
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With many stocks hitting their 52 week lows, wonder if this is a good time to start buying stock or if it is better to wait a bit more to see if the market continues to go lower. Seems that there could be some good bargains out there right now.
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GBers, the Dow is now trading @ the Nov. 1998 level.
my next job for getbiggers is spotting the bottom.......and i will.
hang around and watch. ;)
NT
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U.S. stocks thud lower for a sixth consecutive day
Oct. 8, 2008
U.S. stocks tumbled into Wednesday's close, extending losses into a sixth consecutive session after multiple wild swings into positive and negative turf in the wake of global interest rate cuts in response to frozen credit markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 191 points to 9,256.11. The S&P 500 $SPX 984.94, -11.29, -1.1%) dropped 11.36 points to 984.87, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 14.55 points to end at 1,740.33.
the Dow has now shed 5,000 points since Nov. 07. ;)
NT
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With many stocks hitting their 52 week lows, wonder if this is a good time to start buying stock or if it is better to wait a bit more to see if the market continues to go lower. Seems that there could be some good bargains out there right now.
Don't depend on Neurotoxin or any other Joe to tell you how to time the market, bro.
Make dollar cost averaging your friend. If you don't know how to research the fundamentals of companies to determine their valuation, take Warren Buffett's advice and invest in index funds.
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GBers, the Dow is now trading @ the Nov. 1998 level.
my next job for getbiggers is spotting the bottom.......and i will.
hang around and watch. ;)
NT
9244.72 as of now :'(
I appreciate your advice.
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October 8, 2008
WASHINGTON — If governments do not forge a coordinated response to the financial crisis, it could spill over to emerging markets, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday in warning that the world’s “mature” markets” face their biggest challenge since the Depression.
“The world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous financial shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s,” the I.M.F. said in its Global Financial Stability Report, which represented the fund’s gloomiest forecast in years.
NT
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Don't depend on Neurotoxin or any other Joe to tell you how to time the market, bro.
BB, what makes you believe i'm "any other Joe" ?
NT
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BB, what makes you believe i'm any other Joe ?
NT
Do you claim greater knowledge about the market's fluctuations than say...Warren Buffett?
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Do you claim greater knowledge about the market's fluctuations than say...Warren Buffett?
1) this is NOT a market "fluctuation" we're experiencing.
2) warren buffett does NOT cost average down. (only dumb money does) buffett is a value investor. he buys after markets crash.....not while their crashing. ::)
3) get your facts straight.
NT
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Don't depend on Neurotoxin or any other Joe to tell you how to time the market, bro.
Make dollar cost averaging your friend. If you don't know how to research the fundamentals of companies to determine their valuation, take Warren Buffett's advice and invest in index funds.
I am already taking advantage of dollar cost averaging (i.e. investing a set amount on a regular basis, no matter the market conditions). Just wondering if a more agressive strategy might be worthwhile as the market bottoms out. It is risky, but getting a stock at a really low price, when they are still a stable and attractive business, is hard to pass up.
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GBers, as long our country's economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate, i will not waver from my long term plan.
NT
10/08 , The relentless slide in home prices has left nearly one in six U.S. homeowners owing more on a mortgage than the home is worth raising the possibility of a rise in defaults — the very misfortune that touched off the credit crisis last year.
The result of homeowners being "underwater" is more pressure on an economy that is already in a downturn. No longer having equity in their homes makes people feel less rich and thus less inclined to shop at the mall.
And having more homeowners underwater is likely to mean more eventual foreclosures, because it is hard for borrowers in financial trouble to refinance or sell their homes and pay off their mortgage if their debt exceeds the home's value. A foreclosed home, in turn, tends to lower the value of other homes in its neighborhood.
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gbers, the enormity of our current banking problems are NOT being told to the public. i cannot stress this enough.
IMO, it's imperative you understand and stay out of harms way.
NT
10/08 Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned Wednesday that more financial firms would go bankrupt in the United States and that recent market turmoil had "seriously impacted" the economy.
"One thing we must recognize -- even with the new Treasury authorities, some financial institutions will fail," Paulson said at a news conference.
NT
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Do you claim greater knowledge about the market's fluctuations than say...Warren Buffett?
Obama mentions Warren Buffet , you pop a boner and shed your "wisdom" in this thread. Piss off. :)
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1) this is NOT a market "fluctuation" we're experiencing.
2) warren buffett does NOT cost average down. (only dumb money does) buffett is a value investor. he buys after markets crash.....not while their crashing. ::)
3) get your facts straight.
NT
lol. I see NT is still schooling the dumb money.... ;D
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Long time, no see.
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Socialism: A political theory advocating state ownership of industry.
An economic system based on state ownership of capital. All communists are socialists.
GBers, under George W Bush the government has now taken ownership of the mortgage industry, insurance industry and banking industry.
Nuff said.
NT
10/09 WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is considering taking ownership stakes in a number of U.S. banks as one option it might use to deal with a serious credit crisis, an administration official said Thursday.
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Obama mentions Warren Buffet , you pop a boner and shed your "wisdom" in this thread. Piss off. :)
???
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October 9, 2008
Your Money
Switching to Cash May Feel Safe, but Risks Remain
By RON LIEBER
It’s a question we’ve all asked in our darker moments of late: Why not just put all of our investments in cash, 100 percent, just for a little while, until things calm down?
Some people already seem to be acting on that instinct. In the first six days of October (through Monday), investors pulled $19 billion out of mutual funds that invest in United States stocks, matching the outflows for the entire month of September, according to TrimTabs Investment Research.
“What clients are looking for is safety,” said John Bunch, president of retail distribution at TD Ameritrade. “They are seeking solutions that are backed by the federal government. Specifically, F.D.I.C-insured money funds and certificates of deposit. All of it is under the umbrella of, ‘Am I safe and insured?’ ”
By fleeing for the comfort of safe and insured, however, investors with a time horizon beyond a few years may be doing real damage to their long-term finances. If you’re tempted to make a big move to cash right now, you’re doing something called market timing. It’s an implied statement that you’ve figured out the right moment to get out of stocks — and will also know the right time to get back in.
So let’s dispense with the first part straightaway. The right time to move out of stocks was a year or so ago, before various stock indexes the world over fell by one-third or more.
If you missed that opportunity, you’re hardly alone.
But if you sell now, you’ll be locking in your losses. And once you’re in cash, there isn’t much upside. In fact, with interest rates low, you’re likely to lose money in cash, because inflation will probably eat up the after-tax returns you earn from a savings or money-market account.
A guarantee of a small loss may sound good right now. But if you’re not bailing out of stocks once and for all, how will you know when it’s time to get back in? The fact is, any peace of mind you gain by being on the sidelines now will turn into a migraine once you see how much you can harm your portfolio over time by missing just a bit of any rebound.
H. Nejat Seyhun, a professor of finance at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, put together a study in 2005 for Towneley Capital Management, where he tested the long-term damage that investors could do to their portfolios if they missed out on the small percentage of days when the stock market experienced big gains.
From 1963 to 2004, the index of American stocks he tested gained 10.84 percent annually in a geometric average, which avoided overstating the true performance. For people who missed the 90 biggest-gaining days in that period, however, the annual return fell to just 3.2 percent. Less than 1 percent of the trading days accounted for 96 percent of the market gains.
This fall, Javier Estrada, a professor of finance at IESE Business School in Barcelona, published a similar study in The Journal of Investing that looked at equity markets in 15 nations, including the United States. A portfolio belonging to an investor who missed the 10 best days over several decades across all of those markets would end up, on average, with about half the balance of someone who sat tight throughout.
So moving to cash right now is just fine as long as you know precisely when to get back into stocks (even though you didn’t know when to get out of them).
At some point, stocks will indeed fall enough that investors will remove the money from their mattresses and put it to work, causing prices to rise significantly. But, as Bonnie A. Hughes, a certified financial planner with the Enrichment Group in Miami, put it to me, there won’t be an e-mail message or news release that goes out when this is about to happen. It will be evident only afterward, on the few days when the market surges.
And it gets worse for those who think they won’t have any trouble investing in stocks again later. Medium- or long-term investors who are considering a big move into cash right now are probably making an emotional decision, at least in part. For those who follow through, the same instincts will probably hurt when trying to figure out when to reinvest in stocks.
“The emotional forces that drove them out of the market aren’t likely to let them back in ‘until things are better,’ ” Dan Danford of the Family Investment Center in St. Joseph, Mo., said in an e-mail message. “And for most people, things won’t feel better again until the market has already moved back up.” In fact, he added, plenty of people may not allow themselves to get back in until the market has already risen significantly.
That situation is worth considering if you think your mood, or returns, can’t get any worse. “People feel worse missing out on the bounce-back that will inevitably come than they do hanging in there through the down period,” said Elaine D. Scoggins, a certified financial planner with Merriman Berkman Next in Seattle.
The truly downbeat do not see the bounce as inevitable. This outlook is essentially a bet that our current predicament is so different that the equity markets won’t bounce back at all, even though they survived 1929, the Great Depression, 1987 and a major terrorist attack. I do not believe that the markets are in some kind of permanent decline, and I haven’t found an expert who does.
That said, some retirees, or those close to leaving the work force, may be well-off enough to leave stocks behind for now. If the tumult in the economy and the decline in the markets have altered your risk tolerance, then it may make sense to move to a portfolio of Treasury bills, certificates of deposit and money market funds.
Michael G. Coli, 56, of Crystal Lake, Ill., decided to take his 401(k) money out of the market in February. As an investor in his sons’ pizza restaurants, he noticed that an increasing number of customers were relying on credit cards. And as the owner of a winter home in Naples, Fla., he witnessed the housing market dive. Taken together, he decided to pull his retirement money, which he would need in five years, from the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund and move it all into certificates of deposit.
“I had the feeling the economy was not on real firm ground,” Mr. Coli said. “I decided to get out and put it all in C.D.’s, and that is where I’ve been ever since.”
If you can’t afford to live off the proceeds of cash investments (or dividends from your investment in your kids’ pizza joints), you may have no choice but to hold on to whatever stocks you have left. Then, you can hope for a rebound that will allow you to live out your later years more comfortably. Selling now and moving to cash could mean guaranteeing a lower standard of living for the rest of your life, because you’d be locking in your losses.
But if you’re a bit younger, try to think of your investment portfolio in the same way you consider the value of your home, if you own one. After all, if you’re not moving anytime soon, your home is a long-term investment, too.
“Today’s price is not your price. Your price is 10 or 20 years from now,” said Thomas A. Orecchio, of Greenbaum & Orecchio, a wealth management firm in Old Tappan, N.J. “Unfortunately, stock market investors don’t always see things that way.”
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I am already taking advantage of dollar cost averaging (i.e. investing a set amount on a regular basis, no matter the market conditions). Just wondering if a more agressive strategy might be worthwhile as the market bottoms out. It is risky, but getting a stock at a really low price, when they are still a stable and attractive business, is hard to pass up.
Good to see that you practice that basic investment strategy. :) However, did you read the second sentence I wrote after I mentioned dollar cost averaging? Why WOULD you pass up on a stock if you feel the price is low and you believe it to be an attractive business? ???
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my main message to fellow getbiggers is: when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad. this ultimately will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
imo, the above mentioned will hit the stock market HARD in the coming months and the little guy stuck in a 401k will get slaughtered on the way down.(as usual) conversely, professionals on wall street make money if markets go up.......or down.
i've been in this industry for many years and have NEVER seen a situation quite like the one developing.............i just hope people listen.
NT
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This is another brutal day. So much volatility.
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This is another brutal day. So much volatility.
yes it is. the VIX is sitting at an all time high.
NT
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now the auto industry needs 700 Billion.
if this madness continues, we'll soon be wiping our ass' with worthless 100.00 bills.
NT
DETROIT (Oct.09 ) - The chairwoman of the National Automobile Dealers Association says the credit crunch and economic problems are likely to cause 700 auto dealers in the U.S. to go under this year. Speaking to the Automotive Press Association in Detroit, Annette Sykora on Tuesday urged fast government action on putting a $700 billion financial industry rescue plan in place.
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now the auto industry needs 700 Billion.
if this madness continues, we'll soon be wiping our ass' with worthless 100.00 bills.
NT
DETROIT (Oct.09 ) - The chairwoman of the National Automobile Dealers Association says the credit crunch and economic problems are likely to cause 700 auto dealers in the U.S. to go under this year. Speaking to the Automotive Press Association in Detroit, Annette Sykora on Tuesday urged fast government action on putting a $700 billion financial industry rescue plan in place.
Census shows well over 25,000 new car dealers in the US. Loss of 700 of them isn't going to cause much harm and is actually probably a good thing.
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Today marks the one year anniversary of the all-time closing high set in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On October 9th, 2007, the DJIA set an Intra-day high of 14279.96. One year later, we are off 40% (as Thursday). Since this current situation is currently being compared to the Great Depression, let's do some comparisons...
On September 3rd, 1929, the DJIA reached a record intra-day high of 386.1. One year later, September 3rd, 1930, it had fallen 38.5% Notice how closely that parallels the current crisis.
So looking at the current level of the Dow, are you ready to jump in at these bargain-basement levels? Before you act, let's look at what happened in years two and three of the Great Depression. Suppose you jumped into the market in September of 1930 thinking you were looking at similar bargains...
By September 3rd, 1931, the Dow had fallen 65.5% from it's peak just two years before.
On July 8th, 1932, the Dow had an intra-day low of 40.56, or 89.5% off it's peak in less than three years.
So the next logical question is, how long did it take to recover back to the peak of 386.1? Are you ready for this?
November 26th, 1954...a full 25 years after the peak set in 1929.
Seeing how the first year of the current crisis is trading on par with the first year of the Great Depression, one could draw the conclusion that we may not see Dow 14K again until 2032.
NT
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GBers, again no surprise to us. Dow closed down 678.00 points today to 8,578.00.
why is everyone so shocked on CNBC ? ???
old news here. ;)
NT
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Dow 10/9/07 = 14,278
Dow 10/9/08 = 8,578
NT 8)
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where's the bottom?
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where's the bottom?
SM, the Dow bottom is 0.00 (just kidding)
right now panic and capitulation have set in.
i'll have a better idea where the bottom is over the coming weeks/months.
NT
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SM, the Dow bottom is 0.00 (just kidding)
right now panic and capitulation have set in.
i'll have a better idea where the bottom is over the coming weeks/months.
NT
There's a lot of doom and gloom discussion on the street... Everyone is hording cash.
The credit markets are still sluggish despite the bailout bill... Investors are putting money elsewhere.
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SM, the Dow bottom is 0.00 (just kidding)
right now panic and capitulation have set in.
i'll have a better idea where the bottom is over the coming weeks/months.
NT
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
Listening to this man would have saved the average GBer with a 401k 30-40% of their porfolio.
NOBODY on getbig has made a contribution of this magnitude.
Hopefully a few of you listened. I don't agree with the fundamentals of the 401k and have been out for almost two years now. Nobody would listen to me about how much of a gamble it is to dump money into the 401k and bank on a retirement, but now they feel the pain.
8.3 Trillion has been lost in this market since Last October.
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Socialism: A political theory advocating state ownership of industry.
An economic system based on state ownership of capital. All communists are socialists.
GBers, under George W Bush the government has now taken ownership of the mortgage industry, insurance industry and banking industry.
Nuff said.
NT
10/09 WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is considering taking ownership stakes in a number of U.S. banks as one option it might use to deal with a serious credit crisis, an administration official said Thursday.
Yes. thanks to dumbasses like coach, we are soon to be under socialism with an aspect of a dictatorship since the patriot act came along. Republicans have built the biggest goverment in the history of america........socialist pigs.......
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LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
Listening to this man would have saved the average GBer with a 401k 30-40% of their porfolio.
NOBODY on getbig has made a contribution of this magnitude.
Hopefully a few of you listened. I don't agree with the fundamentals of the 401k and have been out for almost two years now. Nobody would listen to me about how much of a gamble it is to dump money into the 401k and bank on a retirement, but now they feel the pain.
8.3 Trillion has been lost in this market since Last October.
But b,b,b but Alex said this was a MINI MELTDOWN and he insulted Neuro and others in this thread time and again. Alex beg for mercy or kill yourself now. ;D
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(http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3006/2928710304_b69ca42f07.jpg)
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GBers, as World Markets panic and collapse, i've never felt more relaxed in my life. 8)
hopefully this thread has assisted you.
NT
October 10, 2008
Stock markets around the world over fell sharply Friday as investor fears about the global financial crisis deepened, while government officials scrambled to contain the damage.
European markets got off to a terrible start. Within the first 10 minutes of trading, London's FTSE, the CAC in Paris and the DAX in Germany had each lost 10% of their values. European markets recovered some as the trading session wore on, but all were down from 4% to 9%.
Asian markets ended lower. The Nikkei Exchange in Japan closed down 9.6%.
Meanwhile, the Australian All Ordinaries index closed more than 8% lower and South Korea's KOSPI index finished the day off 4.3%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down about 8% in afternoon trading and Mumbai's BSE SENSEX was down 7.4%.
The losses brought more attempts by government officials to reverse the tide.
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can you say vindicated ;D Well fucking done Neuro... You deserve a freaking medal for this thread.
Seriously, good job on letting people know.
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nt, what do you think of this, the 42 trillion number? or anyone else here.
This isn't going to settle out until after the Credit Default Swap payoff auctions on Oct 23. Only then will everyone know just how exposed everyone else is. Many banks will fail no matter what the government does. But many will also survive and once shown to be sound their business will resume.
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What is scary to me about this is the way governments are taking over ownership of private sector financial institutions and private industry. Just think of the banks being run like the IRS or the Post Office - and by the very same people with political mandates. While it would hurt, it would be better to just let many of these banks fail and be replaced with new ones. All this life support is going to do is lead to perpetually sick banks run by politicians for political purposes.
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Guess I will repost this for those who didn't see it the first time. Skip it if you have seen it already.
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The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
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All of this because 5% of U.S. mortgages are defaulting? This 5% isn’t that big a number compared to the world financial markets. After all, the other 95% are still paying and yielding a cash flow. So if sub primes didn’t cause this what is going on?
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What is going on is a Credit Default Swap caused crash. A CDS is a form of insurance on loans that pays off if the loan defaults. CDS are totally unregulated and un-monitored by any government agency. CDS are not called insurance because insurance is regulated. If it was called insurance, and regulated, the issuers of the policies would be required to have assets enough to cover any claims. But it isn’t insurance. And it turns out the issuers of CDS never had the assets to cover any claims – even a small claim like the sub prime mortgage defaults. If they had paid off the sub prime defaults everyone would have their money and there would be no bailout.
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The banks and financial institutions that issued unregulated CDS made billions collecting the premiums (but they are not called premiums because it isn’t insurance). But when the sub prime backed instruments started to default they couldn’t pay off because they had no assets to pay off with. AIG is one example. And everyone noticed and started to worry.
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The real problem is that CDS were not sold to cover just mortgages loans. They were sold to cover almost every kind of lending instrument. Obviously, a bond that is insured against defaulting is more valuable and higher rated than one that is not insured. So once the CDS began defaulting on the subprime market it became obvious they were worthless insurance on everything else they insured, which is just about everything else out there. So the value of every bond, hedge fund and other investment instrument dropped on the books of every institution holding them. And they dropped fairly sharply.
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And then there are the CDS themselves. They were on the books as an income producing investment instrument just like a bond from a legitimate insurance company. Now they are virtually worthless. How much were they worth before the truth about them was revealed? $42.6 TRILLION. For perspective, this is equal to the entire household wealth of the U.S.; the U.S. stock market is capitalized at $18.5 trillion. So what really has happened is that the global financial markets have just taken a $42.6 trillion dollar loss of assets.
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Our recent bailout is only $700 billion, a tiny fraction of the outstanding CDS and not enough to make a tiny tiny dent in the debt the financial institutions are now holding. So what did our elected officials just do? They bailed out their campaign donors and gave them a chance to cash in their chips and leave the game with some cash in their pockets.
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The sub prime defaults are just a minor diversion that takes your eyes off what has really happened. Huge companies, here and abroad, (CDS started in Europe) committed a fancy complicated form of fraud. They sold insurance that wasn’t really insurance, collected billions in “premiums” that pumped up their books and made billions for their executives and brokers. They often issued a CDS to a buyer to pump up the price of a bond or financial instrument they were selling and thus increased their profits two ways.
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If a real regulated insurance company had done this the executives would all be indicted, prosecuted and put in jail for a long time. It was fraud and I hope our government will go after these weasels and put them in jail. But I doubt that will happen.
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The problem right now is that no one knows who is holding what or even how to begin to value holdings. The value of holdings of all kinds have clearly dropped. But by how much? In the sub prime mortgage market, for example, the houses are still out there and clearly they have some considerable value. But how much? The same holds across all the markets. The tangible assets securing most of the loans are still out there. But what are they worth now? We are about to see a huge 100 year shake out on the value of everything and everyone is going to take a hit. The more leveraged any business or individual is the more they are going to devalue. And that is another new aspect of this crash.
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Super low interest rates made borrowing possible – smart – at rates that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. 20 years ago being leveraged at a 5 to 1 rate was the normal limit. Today 30 to 1 is normal. 4% interest rates simply could not be ignored and go unused. Hedge funds with 4% interest rates made extreme leveraging even more extreme for large investors and funds. It turns out some hedge funds had 100 to 1 leveraging. (Hedge funds are another unregulated market) So our entire economy, the businesses, the banks, individuals are credit extended like never before in history. So they are all going to be devalued like never before. This is going to be the perfect financial storm. And it isn’t going to end anytime soon.
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A lot of companies are going to fail – unavoidably. There is going to be a lot of unemployment. A lot of retirement funds are going to fail – including government backed retirement funds like state funds. And the U.S. government cannot bail them all out. But it will try at first. And the government will have unemployment claims and welfare claims like never before. And all this will cause another problem that will cause more pain. Inflation.
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Inflation like we haven’t seen in decades. Because the only way the government will have to pay off its debts – and they are going to be huge, even compared to our present huge debt – is to print money. Lots of money.
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We are going to see something unthinkable in the past. High unemployment, bankruptcies, banks closing and a very slow economy, BUT with high inflation because every government in the world is going to print money to try and bail things out.
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can you say vindicated ;D Well fucking done Neuro... You deserve a freaking medal for this thread.
Seriously, good job on letting people know.
how about some fancy stars HC ? ;D
seriously....thank you. it's my pleasure to help GBers.
NT
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can you say vindicated ;D Well fucking done Neuro... You deserve a freaking medal for this thread.
Seriously, good job on letting people know.
(http://www.jaguarenterprises.net/images/but.gif) "The fundamentals of our economy are strong!" :D
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GBers, if the unfortunate event of 1929 replays itself, a plan of having extra CASH on hand would be prudent.
think safety.
NT
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See/hear Bush's speech? I like the part where he said they'll criminally prosecute peope that manipulate the market. lol
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See/hear Bush's speech? I like the part where he said they'll criminally prosecute peope that manipulate the market. lol
HAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! EPIC
WHAT A FUCKING INSULT... PRESIDENT STUPIDFUCK THINKING WE'RE DUMB.
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GBers, if the unfortunate event of 1929 replays itself, a plan of having extra CASH on hand would be prudent.
think safety.
NT
NT, how much cash do you currently have on hand?
...And what is your address? ;D
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NT, how much cash do you currently have on hand?
...And what is your address? ;D
LOLOLOL.
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Nuro,
Will we recover?
Is this their way of forcing the Amero currency on us?
?
Thank you sir!
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Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World's Markets
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world's financial markets while they ``rewrite the rules of international finance.''
``The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,'' Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to the financial crisis ``can't just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.''
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much 8.1 percent in early trading and pared most of those losses after Berlusconi's remarks. The Dow was down 0.5 percent to 8540.52 at 10:10 in New York.
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NT, how much cash do you currently have on hand?
...And what is your address? ;D
;D too funny.
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Oct. 11 The International Monetary Fund warned Saturday that debt-ridden banks were pushing the global financial system to the brink of meltdown and rich nations had so far failed to restore confidence.
President Bush appealed for patience as world leaders raced to stabilize financial markets and avert the deepest global recession in decades, but the 185-nation IMF said more steps would be needed in the coming months.
"Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown," IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
NT
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Nuro,
Will we recover?
Is this their way of forcing the Amero currency on us?
?
Thank you sir!
RPF, still too many unanswered questions to accurately predict the long term affects of our financial crisis.
as things play out i'll keep everyone posted.
NT
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what's your thoughts on purchasing physical gold
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what's your thoughts on purchasing physical gold
i personally do not buy physical gold. (except for my beautiful wife) :D
thats not to say its wrong, just my preference.
NT
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NT,
I'm writing this at 11pm here in Ireland, so you guys are at least 7 hours behind us.
Tomorrow morning when the markets open, THE AMERICAN DOLLAR WILL TANK (immediately and severely)... China just announced it's going to internalise its markets, including a pledge to DOUBLE rural incomes by 2020.
That's it... the fat lady is singing. America is now a BAD DEBT.
If China is turning inwards and openly announcing its intent to shun a troubled American market, then the market is dead. America has been FORECLOSED ON and China doesn't care if it gets ten cents on the dollar.
The USD will be worth half a Euro or less by the end of the week.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dollar inflates ten fold tomorrow alone.
The Luke
PS... I thought this was going to happen about two weeks ago, but I was wrong as the market was manipulated into stability. If this policy decision by China doesn't collapse the dollar... nothing will.
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NT,
I'm writing this at 11pm here in Ireland, so you guys are at least 7 hours behind us.
Tomorrow morning when the markets open, THE AMERICAN DOLLAR WILL TANK (immediately and severely)... China just announced it's going to internalise its markets, including a pledge to DOUBLE rural incomes by 2020.
That's it... the fat lady is singing. America is now a BAD DEBT.
If China is turning inwards and openly announcing its intent to shun a troubled American market, then the market is dead. America has been FORECLOSED ON and China doesn't care if it gets ten cents on the dollar.
The USD will be worth half a Euro or less by the end of the week.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dollar inflates ten fold tomorrow alone.
The Luke
PS... I thought this was going to happen about two weeks ago, but I was wrong as the market was manipulated into stability. If this policy decision by China doesn't collapse the dollar... nothing will.
This is serious. Is there a written source of this info as of now? It's 7:17pm here on the east coast of the US.
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This is serious. Is there a written source of this info as of now? It's 7:17pm here on the east coast of the US.
...the Chinese government made the announcement today that China would look to develop its internal market in order to avoid the turbulence now present in the international market. Associated Press is running the story.
I said a couple of weeks ago that there would be a run on the dollar when the bailout failed. NT said that on the contrary there would be a slight bump once the bailout passed.
There was a bump in the Dow Jones, but then the slump continued... a run on the dollar is the next logical step: it's a damaged un-backed currency.
The pledge to double rural incomes by 2020 is a hint. China seldom makes these kinds of promises.
Just read between the lines.
The Luke
PS... I hope I'm wrong.
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This is serious. Is there a written source of this info as of now? It's 7:17pm here on the east coast of the US.
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=240509.0
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NT,
I'm writing this at 11pm here in Ireland, so you guys are at least 7 hours behind us.
Tomorrow morning when the markets open, THE AMERICAN DOLLAR WILL TANK (immediately and severely)... China just announced it's going to internalise its markets, including a pledge to DOUBLE rural incomes by 2020.
That's it... the fat lady is singing. America is now a BAD DEBT.
If China is turning inwards and openly announcing its intent to shun a troubled American market, then the market is dead. America has been FORECLOSED ON and China doesn't care if it gets ten cents on the dollar.
The USD will be worth half a Euro or less by the end of the week.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Dollar inflates ten fold tomorrow alone.
The Luke
PS... I thought this was going to happen about two weeks ago, but I was wrong as the market was manipulated into stability. If this policy decision by China doesn't collapse the dollar... nothing will.
i respectfully disagree Luke. i believe we form a base at these levels. Dow 7,500-7,800 is considered major institutional support. on friday we hit 7,800. a rally from these levels should be expected.
NT
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NT,
Dow is up 583 as of 1:20pm EST. Think that this rally will sustain or is it just another cyclical bump up before another huge drop? Have we hit the bottom?
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i respectfully disagree Luke. i believe we form a base at these levels. Dow 7,500-7,800 is considered major institutional support. on friday we hit 7,800. a rally from these levels should be expected.
NT
U.S. Stocks Rally Most Since 1930s on Bank Plan; Dow Gains 936.00
Oct. 13 U.S. stocks staged the biggest rally in seven decades on a government plan to buy stakes in banks and a Federal Reserve-led push to flood the global financial system with dollars.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rebounded from its worst week in 75 years with an 11.6 percent advance, its steepest since 1939, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 936 points.
The S&P 500 halted an eight-day losing streak, its longest since 1996. Last week's 18 percent declines pushed both the S&P 500 and Dow down more than 40 percent from their peaks last October.
The S&P 500 is still down 32 percent in 2008, poised for its worst yearly loss since 1937.
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GBers, banks/financials ALWAYS lead the market higher. the Fed is now forcing nationalization of our major banks. as a result, MASSIVE short covering occurred Mon. pushing the Dow 936 points higher.
if the Dow holds major support @ 7,800 despite continued negative economic data, i'd expect a rally over the coming weeks. (many believe WS has "priced in" bad data....for now.)
BTW, WS traders are looking for real change in the WH. if Obama happens to get elected, expect an impressive election rally as well.
just my opinion.
NT
U.S. Forces Nine Major Banks To Accept Partial Nationalization
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
The U.S. government is dramatically escalating its response to the financial crisis by planning to invest $250 billion in the country's banks, forcing nine of the largest to accept a Treasury stake in what amounts to a partial nationalization.
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Despite the massive rally (that I didn't foresee), I still feel I'm ahead of the curve here by insisting that a drastic inflation of the dollar is LONG OVERDUE.
I doubt that these rallies reflect investor confidence in the underlying market fundamentals... rather I see this renewed investor confidence as a more cynical interest in short-term profiteering from the Bailout.
The Luke
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Despite the massive rally (that I didn't foresee), I still feel I'm ahead of the curve here by insisting that a drastic inflation of the dollar is LONG OVERDUE.
I doubt that these rallies reflect investor confidence in the underlying market fundamentals... rather I see this renewed investor confidence as a more cynical interest in short-term profiteering from the Bailout.
The Luke
your points are extremely valid Luke. but market psychology supersedes reality.
NT
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your points are extremely valid Luke. but market psychology supersedes reality.
...that's the type of instantly quotable insight that only an insider can coin. Well said.
Just out of interest, what is your view of the underlying fundamentals?
Is America bankrupt...?
Is America a bad debt...?
Will the dollar be green toilet paper in the foreseeable future...?
The Luke
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...that's the type of instantly quotable insight that only an insider can coin. Well said.
Just out of interest, what is your view of the underlying fundamentals?
Is America bankrupt...?
Is America a bad debt...?
Will the dollar be green toilet paper in the foreseeable future...?
The Luke
1) current economic fundamentals are atrocious.
2) yes
3) yes
4) yes
NT
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10/14 Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said on Tuesday the U.S. housing sector faced more losses and the economy was in recession even as authorities moved to stabilize the financial system.
"The first priority is to stabilize the financial system. It is necessary even though the cost involved is heavy government intrusion in markets that should be private," he said in a speech at a seminar in Singapore.
"House prices in the U.S. are still declining. There are still more losses to come there. The economy, I believe, is in recession."
NT
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Quote from: The Luke on Today at 03:55:00 AM
...that's the type of instantly quotable insight that only an insider can coin. Well said.
Just out of interest, what is your view of the underlying fundamentals?
Is America bankrupt...?
Is America a bad debt...?
Will the dollar be green toilet paper in the foreseeable future...?
The Luke
1) current economic fundamentals are atrocious.
2) yes
3) yes
4) yes
NT
Odd that you think that the greenback will be worthless, but you aren't an advocate of buying gold or some substinate form of wealth. What do you back for sustained wealth then, NT? (Or are you just a pessimist and think that it is all downhill from here and that there is nothing anyone can do at all?)
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Odd that you think that the greenback will be worthless, but you aren't an advocate of buying gold or some substinate form of wealth. What do you back for sustained wealth then, NT? (Or are you just a pessimist and think that it is all downhill from here and that there is nothing anyone can do at all?)
1) dani, please do not put words in my mouth. show me where i said the dollar would be WORTHLESS ?
2) dollars value has dropped 41% in last 8 yrs
3) as the Fed continues to print greenbacks at a torrid pace, the value will continue to DECLINE.
4) i'm a realist....not a pessimist.
5) when i started this thread @ Dow 14,000.00, guys like you were everywhere. most moved on with tails between their legs.
6) this thread has NEVER been about commodities. i discuss overall market direction.
7) if you're interested in gold/oil and commodities, contact alex23 and terminalpower, they're both experts in that area.
NT
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Odd that you think that the greenback will be worthless, but you aren't an advocate of buying gold or some substinate form of wealth. What do you back for sustained wealth then, NT? (Or are you just a pessimist and think that it is all downhill from here and that there is nothing anyone can do at all?)
1) dani, please do not put words in my mouth. show me where i said the dollar would be WORTHLESS ?
2) dollars value has dropped 41% in last 8 yrs
3) as the Fed continues to print greenbacks at a torrid pace, the value will continue to DECLINE.
4) i'm a realist....not a pessimist.
5) when i started this thread @ Dow 14,000.00, guys like you were everywhere. most moved on with tails between their legs.
6) this thread has NEVER been about commodities. i discuss overall market direction.
7) if you're interested in gold/oil and commodities, contact alex23 and terminalpower, they're both experts in that area.
NT
Re: the dollar being worthless...guess you are right, you didn't say it would be worthless, but did say 'yes' when The Luke asked, "Will the dollar be green toilet paper in the foreseeable future...?"
Could you be more specific about "guys like <me>"? Seems that you are being a bit sensitive. I am not attacking you with my question about your views, just trying to understand.
My confusion comes, because you said in answer to questions about when the market will hit bottom that you will "...have a better idea where the bottom is over the coming weeks/months." If the dollar is just green toilet paper, then it doesn't make sense to invest in stocks at all, even when the market hits bottom, since selling the stock when the market goes up just produces more toilet paper.
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1) this is NOT a market "fluctuation" we're experiencing.
2) warren buffett does NOT cost average down. (only dumb money does) buffett is a value investor. he buys after markets crash.....not while their crashing. ::)
3) get your facts straight.
NT
*sigh* I just need to set the record straight upon coming across this shit.
1) My post was in your response to you claiming you could time the market, jackass. I mentioned Warren Buffett because he (as well as any other investor worth his salt) states often that he has no idea where the market is headed in one month or six months.
2) I never said Warren Buffett "cost averages down". What the fuck are you talking about? Warren Buffett has more than enough money to not need to use dollar cost averaging to invest. ::) My advice was in response to the person I quoted. I stand by the advice I gave. I am well aware that Buffett is a value investor, modeled after his mentor Ben Graham.
3) My "facts" are straighter than an arrow, nitwit. ;) I didn't work on Wall Street for the better part of 10 years for a lecture from an internet know-it-all. I mentioned dollar cost averaging for the average Joe who does not know how to value stocks, and that that type of individual should be investing in index funds.
I had to go and pull a book off my shelf to quote because of your bullshit misinterpretation of my statement.
From page 9 of The Essential Warren Buffett, by Robert Hagstrom:
Buffett believes that only the investors that need wide diversification are those who do not understand what they are doing. If "know-nothing" investors want to own common stocks, they should own a large number of equities and space out their purchases over time. In other words, they should use an index fund and dollar cost average their purchases. There is nothing shameful about this technique. In fact, Buffett points out, the index investor will outperform the majority of investment professionals.
You need to check your tone, Neuro, because you never know who you are writing to. ;) I really haven't gone through much of this thread until recently. You appear to know your stuff, however, you are not the only one around here with knowledge of the equity markets. I respect you and it was not, and it is not, my intention to disrespect you in "your" thread. I was just trying to help someone who had a question, even though I am not one to give investment advice randomly on the internet or even discuss much about what I know in the realm of finance.
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1) My post was in your response to you claiming you could time the market, jackass. I am not one to give investment advice randomly on the internet or even discuss much about what I know in the realm of finance.
you're right, i was completely wrong in claiming a Dow Crash would occur. my timing really sucks.
btw, i have NEVER given investment advice. i give my opinion based on 25 years experience working financial markets.
all too often knowledgeable people (as you claim) sit on the sidelines unwilling to help others as they lose their ass. to me, there's nothing more pathetic.
NT
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you're right, i was completely wrong in claiming a Dow Crash would occur. my timing really sucks.
btw, i have NEVER given investment advice. i give my opinion based on 25 years experience working financial markets.
all too often knowledgeable people (as you claim) sit on the sidelines unwilling to help others as they lose their ass. to me, there's nothing more pathetic.
NT
:)
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Worst retail sales in three years
October 15, 2008
Retail sales suffered their biggest drop in three years last month, as American households reined in spending amid a tough job market, the financial crisis and falling home values.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that retail sales fell 1.2% in September, nearly double the 0.7% drop expected by economists.
"The numbers are pretty terrible. Consumers were clearly not spending," Hoyt said.
Particularly troubling is the sharp drop in retail sales from the same time a year earlier. The last time that happened was October 2002 and, prior to that, in 1991, he said.
"This report is very clearly consistent with a recession story," Hoyt said, who added that even gasoline retailers could see their sales decline in October.
GBers, i apologise for the pessimistic economic news.
it is....what it is.
NT
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GBers, again i apologise for more pessimistic news. :'(
i considered posting the same type ra ra shit like Jim Cramer, but realised you guys would lose your money. So i decided that i'd continue TELLING THE FUCKING TRUTH ! whoever doesn't like it.... SHOVE IT UP YOUR ASS !
ok, i feel better now. :D
NT
Oct. 15 Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 733 points, as evidence a painful recession is already under way overshadowed progress in shoring up the global financial system.
Stock indexes furthered their sharp declines after the release of the Federal Reserve's latest report on the economy, which illustrated a broad slowdown in economic activity already under way by the end of September.
"The economy is pretty much showing what we thought all along: that we're slipping into or already in recession," said Sam Stovall, senior investment strategist at Standard & Poor's.
In addition, there are signs "that the global economy is slipping into recession," Stovall said, pointing to another slide in crude oil prices.
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definitely continue to tell it like it is, i as well as alot of other's i'm sure, appeciate it. thanks!
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interesting... what's your opinion on this neuro?
Naked Shorts Frolic While Financial System Fries
October 10th, 2008 by Mark Mitchell
“Morgan Stanley shares have been under extraordinary pressure as of late, for no apparent fundamental reason, as we estimate liquidity, the balance sheet, and long-term earnings, prospects are sound.”
- Fox-Pitt analyst David Trone in a research note, today
Here we go again. A giant bank has some weaknesses, but it is, in all respects, a going concern — except that short sellers are peddling rumors and phantom stock, so the share price is plummeting. With the share price in peril, the rating agencies (perhaps over vigilant after taking so much criticism from short sellers and the media) put the bank’s debt ratings on review for a downgrade.
Meanwhile, short sellers corner the market for the bank’s credit default swaps, and point to the value of the CDS as evidence that the bank is doomed. They feed the media with analyses and bogus indexes that mark the bank’s assets to nothing. They spread the news that the bank’s counterparties and trading partners could bail.
The clients and partners stay with the bank. Up until now they have no reason not to.
But then, there’s more naked short selling, the hedge funds flooding the market with stock they do not possess – phantom stock. Maybe the hedge funds send a fax to CNBC with one last rumor. Over the course of a day or two, the stock price is slashed in half.
Then, suddenly, the stock is in the single digits.
As a result of the low stock price – not as result of the balance sheet – the bank’s partners and clients freak out. This time, they really do pull their money.
End of bank.
And if there are one or two more like this — end of story. The financial system will be fried.
We’ve seen precisely the same scenario with Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual, and IndyMac. A variant of this scenario took down AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and perhaps 200 other companies before them.
Morgan Stanley could be gone by next week.
We have new data for September that shows that there was plenty of short selling of Morgan Stanley (and other companies) even during the SEC’s ban on short selling, which ended Wednesday at midnight. Some hedge funds ignored the ban, and the SEC did nothing.
Worse, in place of the ban, the SEC has offered only tepid new rules (cheered by the short seller lobby) that do little to prevent the sale of phantom stock. Under these rules, short sellers do not have to borrow real stock before they sell it. They merely have to “locate” the stock. The SEC doesn’t say how it’s supposed to know whether a short seller has actually located real stock as opposed to telling his broker, “yeah, I located it, it’s in your mother’s wig” (which is pretty much how these conversations go).
Furthermore, the SEC gives hedge funds three days to deliver the stock they sell. This would be fine if they were required to possess real stock before selling. But since they are not, a hedge fund can offload a large block of phantom stock and let it eat away at the financial system for at least three days.
Sometimes, the hedge funds settle the trade with another block of phantom stock, transferred to them by a friendly broker. But even if they fail to deliver the stock, the SEC stipulates no serious penalties. Meanwhile, it shows no inclination to actually prosecute anyone for the jailable crime of short-side market manipulation.
I’m willing to bet anybody a sizeable amount of money that when the SEC releases its “failures to deliver” numbers for October, they will suggest unbridled illegal naked short selling of Morgan Stanley during this past week, even on days when the ban on all short selling was in place. The data will show that naked short selling rose to unprecedented levels just before somebody floated Wednesday’s false rumor that Morgan Stanley was going to lose its $9 billion deal with Mitsubishi.
And the data will show that after the ban was lifted, the law-breaking shorts went nuclear – with failures to deliver of well over a million shares every day. Ultimately, many millions of Morgan Stanley’s shares will be sold and never delivered, just as hedge funds have yet to deliver more than 10 million shares of Bear Stearns that they sold during that bank’s final days last March.
As I write this, Morgan’s stock price is in the single digits, trading around 7 bucks, down an astounding 70% in the 36 hours since the short selling ban was lifted. A death spiral like that does not happen naturally. Because of the short-battered stock price – and only the stock price (again, this has nothing to do with the balance sheet) — Moody’s today put Morgan’s long-term debt ratings on review for a downgrade.
I suspect another 15% off the stock price, and one more well-placed rumor, will do the trick. There will be a run on the bank. Morgan will be gone. And the global financial fire will blaze still hotter.
It is beyond surreal that our most prestigious financial media continue to allow this to happen. It is beyond comprehension that journalists – in possession of the evidence, and presumably in possession of their faculties – continue to spout the line, originally formulated by short-sellers and now woven into conventional wisdom – that this crisis is only about bad mortgages and bad managers and bad balance sheets.
One can argue that, in the long run, the world is better off without half of Wall Street – without its ponzi schemes and paper profits, the sickening salaries and arrogance. Certainly, anyone with a Shakespearean state of mind will appreciate the fates of Morgan Stanley, Lehman, and Bear – all of which eagerly pimped their dodgy prime brokerage services to the very short sellers who destroyed them.
But it does not require Shakespearean nuance to see that this crisis is not just about scandalous banks. It is about criminals destroying banks that are tawdry, yes, but possessing of some virtue, and capable, if left unmolested, of carrying on and contributing to society – perhaps even staving off a global calamity.
Moreover, these same criminals are destroying many other companies, most of which are run by honest people who labor far from the insalubrious alleyways of southern Manhattan. The SEC maintains a list of companies whose stock has failed to deliver in excessive quantities. As I explained in an earlier dispatch, many victims of naked short selling (including some of the big banks) do not appear on that list. But surely it is a scandal that more than 300 companies, many of them financial firms that have nothing to do with Wall Street, do appear on the list.
Surely, it is an even bigger scandal that around 100 of those companies have appeared on the list chronically, day after day, for months on end, and though the sheriff posts the names of these rape victims on its wall, it has yet to prosecute a single rapist. The SEC tells us that a billion shares remain undelivered on any given day — and yet it doesn’t bother to find out which hedge funds sold the phantom stock.
It might be too late, but if Washington and the financial media really want to save the world, they ought to start by demanding that hedge funds borrow real stock before they sell it. And what the heck: Maybe some newspaper could offer the radical suggestion that the SEC should tell hedge funds that they can either go to jail or close out all unsettled trades – today.
If one hedge fund manager were to get cuffed, all the others with outstanding “failures to deliver” might scramble to buy real stock so they can settle. The markets might soar. The innocent victims might get some relief. And the delinquents on Wall Street would get some time to clean up their acts.
Meanwhile, would anyone care to guess which company the naked short sellers will take down after Morgan Stanley?
And would anyone like to share a bunker with canned goods and weapons?
* * * * * * * *
http://www.deepcapture.com/naked-shorts-frolic-while-financial-system-fries/
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interesting... what's your opinion on this neuro?
Naked Shorts Frolic While Financial System FriesOctober 10th, 2008 by Mark Mitchell
“Morgan Stanley shares have been under extraordinary pressure as of late, for no apparent fundamental reason, as we estimate liquidity, the balance sheet, and long-term earnings, prospects are sound.”
- Fox-Pitt analyst David Trone in a research note, today
HC, when the market rallied from 2003 thru 2007 did you ever hear the term "naked short selling" ?
75 BILLION dollars exited Mutual Funds in Sept. 2008 alone. is anyone talking about that ?
IMO, a scapegoat is needed as to why markets are melting down.
NT
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HC, when the market rallied from 2003 thru 2007 did you ever hear the term "naked short selling" ?
75 BILLION dollars exited Mutual Funds in Sept. 2008 alone. is anyone talking about that ?
IMO, a scapegoat is needed as to why markets are melting down.
NT
thanks
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Citi, Merrill see bigger losses on write-downs
Oct. 16 Investors sold banking stocks again after Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. reported more quarterly losses Thursday, one day after the financial sector saw a double-digit percentage decline on growing economic fears.
and.......
U.S. Industrial Production Fell 2.8%, Most Since 1974
Oct. 16 Industrial production in the U.S. fell in September by the most in almost 34 years as hurricanes and an aircraft strike combined with the credit crunch to weaken manufacturing.
The 2.8 percent decrease in production at factories, mines and utilities exceeded forecasts and followed a revised 1 percent decrease in August, the Federal Reserve said today.
GBers, i suspect the above economic data is having the biggest effect on selling pressure.
NT
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GBers, this is as schizophrenic a market as you'll ever see. :o
professional traders market only.
NT
U.S. stocks soar after early slide on data
Oct. 16, ) -- U.S. stocks shot dramatically higher in a late-session bounce back from the prior day's rout, with energy shares pacing the climb after the price of crude dropped below $70 a barrel for the first time in more than a year.
After trading in a 815-point range, the Dow Jones Industrial Average powered higher in the final hour, rising 401 points, or 4.7%, to end at 8.979.26, a far cry from intraday lows that had the blue-chip benchmark down more nearly 400 points.
"We've got options expiration for October tomorrow and we've seen that volatility impact everything today from stocks to gold and oil," said Paul Mendelsohn, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates.
"It's really a market without conviction. Anyone selling in this market has a roughly half-hour time horizon, and anyone buying has to have at least a one-year horizon. That is why we have such volatility -- the Wall Street fat cats are selling and retail is just sitting there watching," said Jack Ablin, chief Investment officer, Harris Private Bank.
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GBers, if the market fails to hold Dow 7,880......all hell will break loose to the downside.
please be careful.
NT
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GBers, if the market fails to hold Dow 7,880......all hell will break loose to the downside.
please be careful.
NT
What will happen?
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Housing starts hit another 17-year low
Oct 17 Initial construction of U.S. homes fell to a fresh 17-year low in September, according to a government report released Friday.
Housing starts have fallen nearly two-thirds from their peak of 2.3 million in January 2006, and were at the lowest annual pace since January 1991.
NT
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What will happen?
if institutional support of 7,800 is breached, we'll head much lower.
NT
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my colleagues and i believe if Dow 7,800 is held and Obama wins the election, the market will begin to turn in a positive direction.
let's hope so.
NT
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GBers, with only sparse economic data due for release next week, Market movement to the upside should be anticipated imo.
NT
U.S. stock indexes pivot lower in volatile trade
U.S. stocks erased late-Friday gains as profit-takers stepped in ahead of the close, with the major indexes ending with daily losses but up on the week, capping a volatile streak involving wild swings in either direction amid signs of a possible thaw in the credit markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.04 points, or 1.4%, to end at 8,852.22, giving the blue-chip index a weekly gain of 4.75%, and marking its first up week in five.
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GBers, with only sparse economic data due for release next week, Market movement to the upside should be anticipated imo.
NT
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Oct. 20, U.S. stocks extended their gains on Monday afternoon, with energy shares paving the climb higher after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke backed more fiscal stimulus and investors digested earnings reports from various sectors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +411.46 points (+4.65%)
NT
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Buffett: I'm buying stocks
October 17, 2008
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett used a guest commentary article in the New York Times on Friday to announce that he's sticking with stocks.
Buffett, the so-called Oracle of Omaha for his ability to buy up the right companies at the right time for his holding company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), said the worst may not be over for the faltering economy.
"In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary," Buffett wrote.
But for that reason, the Berkshire CEO said, he has converted his personal portfolio almost entirely to U.S. stocks. Previously, he said he owned nothing but Treasury bonds.
Buffett said the fear surrounding the disastrous credit crisis, which has dropped stocks about 36% from their all-time highs set around this time last year, has left equities with attractive purchasing prices.
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," said Buffett. "And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."
Stock prices have been volatile, to say the least. Consider what happened this week alone: The Dow Jones gained 976 points on Monday; fell 76 points on Tuesday; dropped 733 points on Wednesday and then gained 401 points Thursday. But Buffett says the future is much brighter for stocks.
"Fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," wrote Buffett. "Most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now."
Still, many nervous investors have been ditching the up-and-down stock market and pouring their funds into physical assets like gold or cash equivalents. Though they may feel safe now, Buffett said those investors are holding "terrible long-term assets" that will not come close to matching the future gains of stocks.
"The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy," Buffett added.
So if strong companies are destined for long-term success, bad news is good news when you're looking to invest in the stock market.
"Bad news is an investor's best friend," Buffett said. "It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/17/news/economy/buffett_op_ed/?postversion=2008101708
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GBers, institutional Market support resides @ Dow 7,800.00. a disappointment in corp. earnings could force a retest at those levels.
NT
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Hey Neuro, where do u think the bottom is? 7800? lower?
I mean, considering fundamentals.... cuz I think that current sell off is shedding more of a speculative value accumulated over 8-10 years of "irrational exuberance"
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Neuro,
Paulson said last night that there is a lot of tension between the US and China right now. China also said after this financial crises is over, the world should start working on one world currency. What will happen if China decides to stop loaning us money?
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Neuro,
Paulson said last night that there is a lot of tension between the US and China right now. China also said after this financial crises is over, the world should start working on one world currency. What will happen if China decides to stop loaning us money?
They already started doing this from what I understand, at least they are discouraging from anyone else lending to the States.
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The Fed said it would provide up to $540 billion in financing though a program run by JPMorgan Chase & Co. to purchase from mutual funds certificates of deposit, bank notes and commercial paper. The program, to be called the Money Market Investor Funding Facility, is designed to revive the market for commercial paper, short-term loans that are critical for keeping businesses running.
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Neuro,
Paulson said last night that there is a lot of tension between the US and China right now. China also said after this financial crises is over, the world should start working on one world currency. What will happen if China decides to stop loaning us money?
US would halt ALL imports from China and collapse their economy.
NT
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US would halt ALL imports from China and collapse their economy.
NT
I know that this is years down the road but looks like China is preparing itself for that.
China's leaders seek to expand internal market to counter global financial turmoil
BEIJING (AP) -- China's ruling Communist Party on Sunday said it would seek to expand its massive internal market to counter the global economic slowdown that has reduced international demand for Chinese goods.
The party, led by President Hu Jintao, released a statement at the end of a four-day meeting of its Central Committee where it also approved a plan aimed at doubling rural incomes by 2020.
"We should step up efforts to boost domestic demand, particularly domestic consumption and keep the economy, the financial sector and the capital market stable," the party said in a statement released through the official Xinhua News Agency.
The party also recognized inherent "contradictions and problems" with China's economy and said all members should prepare for greater challenges as the global financial crisis unfolds.
China faces difficulties from high energy costs and inflation, but officials say the country has growth potential despite global uncertainties because of its large labor pool, vast domestic market and the increasing competitiveness of its companies.
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US would halt ALL imports from China and collapse their economy.
NT
I never thought about that.
So in reality, China is in bad shape as well.
That explains why China is looking for other countries to sell their products to. China is trying to protect their economy.
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GBers, institutional Market support resides @ Dow 7,800.00. a disappointment in corp. earnings could force a retest of those levels.
NT
WASHINGTON - World stock markets sagged again Wednesday as a barrage of weak corporate earnings stoked fears that the government’s financial intervention won’t keep global economies out of recession.
Poor earnings from large companies in disparate sectors —Wachovia Corp., Boeing and Merck & Co. — illustrated how wide the downturn had spread.
NT
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I never thought about that.
So in reality, China is in bad shape as well.
That explains why China is looking for other countries to sell their products to. China is trying to protect their economy.
correct.
NT
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Hey Neuro, where do u think the bottom is? 7800? lower?I mean, considering fundamentals.... cuz I think that current sell off is shedding more of a speculative value accumulated over 8-10 years of "irrational exuberance"
7,800 is key support. if beached to the downside, we'll likely see Dow 7,000, if not lower.
NT
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Odd that you think that the greenback will be worthless, but you aren't an advocate of buying gold
dantelis, now you know why. ;)
NT
Gold falls to one-year low in commodities sell-off
Oct. 22 Gold futures tumbled 4.3% Wednesday to the lowest level in one year, while copper futures were set for their worst year since 1988 in a broad sell-off that was sending stocks and commodities sharply lower.
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GBers, institutional Market support resides @ Dow 7,800.00. a disappointment in corp. earnings could force a retest at those levels.
NT
Bleak Earnings Swamp Stocks
Faltering profits and fears of global recession sent stocks into a spiral Wednesday, nudging major indicators ever closer to their bear-market lows.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid for a second straight day, ending down 514.45 points, or 5.7%, at 8519.21, hurt by declines in all 30 of its components. The Dow has tumbled almost 750 points over its two-day slide and now stands about 640 points above its Oct. 10 intraday low, which traders are hoping will hold up as a market trough.
GBers, as i've discussed many times, the Oct 10th low ( 7,800 area) is key.
NT
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dantelis, now you know why. ;)
NT
Gold falls to one-year low in commodities sell-off
Oct. 22 Gold futures tumbled 4.3% Wednesday to the lowest level in one year, while copper futures were set for their worst year since 1988 in a broad sell-off that was sending stocks and commodities sharply lower.
I thought "paper gold" and physical gold prices were going in opposite directions, at least the last time I looked, maybe that's changing too or I'm misunderstanding something?
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pay no attention to analysts/rating agency's. behind the scenes they're tied to the companies they PUMP and are nothing more than cheerleaders. (just like CNBC) their job is to get people to BUY.
keep in mind, analysts/rating agency's missed the dot com BUST and recently the housing BUST. that pretty much sums up their performance and reliability.
i had no idea. ;)
NT
Rating Executive: "We Sold Our Souls to the Devil"
October 23, 2008
For years, rating agencies—the referees of Wall Street—insisted they were an impartial source of information, despite their financial reliance on the companies they rated. Then came the market meltdown—and a chorus of accusations that firms had artificially inflated their risk ratings to please their clients and gain a competitive edge. And now there's plenty of evidence to suggest the "referees" were unduly influenced by the players.
As one executive at Moody's, a major credit rating agency, put it following an internal discussion on the implosion of the subprime mortgage market, "These errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis, or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue." The documents lend credibility to charges by Wall Street executives that the rating agencies deserve part of the blame for the current financial crisis. "The story of the credit rating agencies is a story of colossal failure."
The central problem that confronted the rating agencies, according to witness testimony and internal documents, was a fundamental conflict of interest, , The rating firms have an incentive to deliver good ratings for the issuers, whether or not the financial products in question actually deserve them.
In the same presentation, McDaniel noted, "Analysts and MDs [managing directors] are continually 'pitched' by bankers, issuers, investors…[and sometimes] we 'drink the kool-aid.'" Employees at Standard & Poor's also recognized that being paid by issuers often led to overly optimistic ratings for complex—and risky financial products "It could be structured by cows and we would rate. Another Standard & Poor's employee remarked in a 2006 email, "Let's hope we are all wealthy and retired by the time this house of cards falters
A top executive at Fortis Investments asked a Moody's official in a July 2007 call, what's the use of your ratings?...If the ratings are b.s., the only use in ratings is comparing b.s. to more b.s."
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Foreclosure filings spike 71%
Oct 23 The housing crisis still has a choke hold on America: In September, 81,312 homes were lost to foreclosure, according to a report released Thursday.
RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed properties, said that 851,000 homes have been repossessed by lenders since August 2007.
In September, 265,968 troubled borrowers received foreclosure filings - such as default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions.
NT
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GBers....another extremely volatile day. Dow up 300 then down 300 points, only to finish up 172 points.
still holding the Oct 10th low of 7,850.00
NT
Oct. 23 U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days as a rebound in oil from a 16-month low bolstered speculation that the global economic slump won't worsen.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rebounded from a 5 1/2-year low, gaining 11.33 points, or 1.3 percent, to 908.11. The Dow rose 172.04, or 2 percent, to 8,691.25. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 11.84, or 0.7 percent, to 1,603.91.
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Futures down -432. Asians markets getting hammered too.
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Futures down -432. Asians markets getting hammered too.
looks as if we may breach Dow 7,800 today.
NT
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I bet you're right... this shit is really pissing me off. NT, in your opinion what needs to happen?
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GBers.....when this pathetic market finally turns around, i anticipate HUGE returns.
knowledge and patience ALWAYS pay off. ;)
NT
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I bet you're right... this shit is really pissing me off. NT, in your opinion what needs to happen?
capitulation and panic on a massive scale.
only then will institutions begin to slowly reenter.
NT
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capitulation and panic on a massive scale.
only then will institutions begin to slowly reenter.
NT
Do you think it makes sense to slowly get invested again right now?
I'm thinking over the course of the next 6 months, evenly distributed.
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Do you think it makes sense to slowly get invested again right now?
I'm thinking over the course of the next 6 months, evenly distributed.
WL, that decision can only be made by you.
i'll "time" the markets bottom (just like i "timed" the top) before entering long.
those who argue it can't be "timed", are amateurs who speak for themselves.
NT
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
cash is king !
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
"timing" is everything. ;)
NT
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WL, that decision can only be made by you.
i'll "time" the markets bottom (just like i "timed" the top) before entering long.
those who argue it can't be "timed", are amateurs who speak for themselves.
NT
I know. I am an amateur. Possible or not, I won't be able to time the bottom.
Luckily, I kind of had the right feeling about the coming crash in the last year.
Do you have a prediction in what timeframe we will see the bottom (next 6 months, next year, etc.)?
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I know. I am an amateur. Possible or not, I won't be able to time the bottom.
Luckily, I kind of had the right feeling about the coming crash in the last year.
Do you have a prediction in what timeframe we will see the bottom (next 6 months, next year, etc.)?
in all probability a potential bottom should be struck within the next 6 months. market action always dictates entry point.
as you know, holding Dow 7,850 is paramount.
i'll continue to post on GB right thru the turnaround. hopefully this will make it easier for those who trust my opinion to enter safely.
NT
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in all probability a potential bottom should be struck within the next 6 months. market action always dictates entry point.
as you know, holding Dow 7,850 is paramount.
i'll continue to post on GB right thru the turnaround. hopefully this will make it easier for those who trust my opinion to enter safely.
NT
Cool, thanks. I know that all responsibility is held by myself, I'm just trying to get as much opinions as possible. I'll maybe hold on a little longer for now, depending on what my resarch shows.
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GBers.....when this pathetic market finally turns around, i anticipate HUGE returns.
knowledge and patience ALWAYS pay off. ;)
NT
::)
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in all probability a potential bottom should be struck within the next 6 months. market action always dictates entry point.
as you know, holding Dow 7,850 is paramount.
i'll continue to post on GB right thru the turnaround. hopefully this will make it easier for those who trust my opinion to enter safely.
NT
How long will it take to turn around?
They say that this is only the beginning.
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
cash is king !
Don't depend on Neurotoxin or any other Joe to tell you how to time the market, bro.
oh brother, another naysayer. ::)
don't waste my time.
NT
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in all probability a potential bottom should be struck within the next 6 months. market action always dictates entry point.
as you know, holding Dow 7,850 is paramount.
i'll continue to post on GB right thru the turnaround. hopefully this will make it easier for those who trust my opinion to enter safely.
NT
will you let us know where to invest and which companies when the time is right?
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oh brother, another naysayer. ::)
don't waste my time.
NT
hey, "moronic naysayer" was better. ;D
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NT, actually Benny has a point. You probably should know how to evaluate and understand some fundamentals on your own. To say, don't depend on neuro or anyone for that matter is probably a good notion imo. I'm not sure what he said is a hit on your character or maybe it is, benny can say. I guess the key word "depend" is what I agree with. I value your opinion quite a bit, but I would be a fool to depend on any one person on anything really. It's probably good advice to work toward understanding how to evaluate for yourself which is what I'm in the process of doing and one day hopefully I'll be good at it because of people like you and others and my own doing. You have my respect, but I doubt you want me to depend on you.
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NT, actually Benny has a point. You probably should know how to evaluate and understand some fundamentals on your own. To say, don't depend on neuro or anyone for that matter is probably a good notion imo. I'm not sure what he said is a hit on your character or maybe it is, benny can say. I guess the key word "depend" is what I agree with. I value your opinion quite a bit, but I would be a fool to depend on any one person on anything really. It's probably good advice to work toward understanding how to evaluate for yourself which is what I'm in the process of doing and one day hopefully I'll be good at it because of people like you and others and my own doing. You have my respect, but I doubt you want me to depend on you.
your point is well taken and i couldn't agree more. maybe i took his comment out of context. if so, i apologise to Benny.
i certainly do not want GBers to take my word as the Gospel. in fact, i recommend people learn and understand the Market. most GBers who PM me with questions are usually directed to various reading sources.
learning is the key.
NT
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GBers......despite the Dow dropping 312.00 points today, we continue to hold the Oct 10th low of 7,850. (the silver lining...for now)
with pivotal economic data due for release next week, volatility should remain high.
NT
Oct. 24 U.S. stocks dropped and the benchmark index for global equities slid to a five-year low as concern grew that the credit crisis has infected the broader economy.
Losses were worse in overseas markets as South Korean shares tumbled 11 percent, while Russia's market plunged 14 percent before trading was halted.
``It's a bear market on steroids,'' David King, a money manager at Putnam Investments, who helps oversee about $137 billion, told Bloomberg Television. ``It's very accelerated by the pace of financial markets today.''
The S&P 500 retreated 31.35 points, or 3.5 percent, to 876.76 after losing as much as 6 percent during the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 312.3 points, or 3.6 percent, to 8,378.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 51.88, or 3.2 percent, to 1,552.03. Almost eight stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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Didn't the Dow drop another 200 points from 4 to 4:15 lock up? So instead of down 313 it ended up Dow down 513.
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GBers......despite the Dow dropping 312.00 points today, we continue to hold the Oct 10th low of 7,850. (the silver lining...for now)
with pivotal economic data due for release next week, volatility should remain high.
NT
additionally, the FOMC announcement on interest rates (Weds.) should add to the volatility.
NT
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Dow futures down right now. Tomarrow should be an interesting day.
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7,800 is key support. if beached to the downside, we'll likely see Dow 7,000, if not lower.
NT
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additionally, the FOMC announcement on interest rates (Weds.) should add to the volatility.
NT
BTW, i'd expect another interest rate cut on Wed.
every trick in the book will be utilized to turn the Market.
NT
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your point is well taken and i couldn't agree more. maybe i took his comment out of context. if so, i apologise to Benny.
i certainly do not want GBers to take my word as the Gospel. in fact, i recommend people learn and understand the Market. most GBers who PM me with questions are usually directed to various reading sources.
learning is the key.
NT
dude, and what exactly is "your word"? You are just stating the facts, which are public info.
I asked you a question about fundamentals earlier and you simply ignored it
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I asked you a question about fundamentals earlier and you simply ignored it
Dbol, sorry you missed my response.
current economic fundamentals are atrocious.
NT
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I asked you a question about fundamentals earlier and you simply ignored it
Dbol, if you look back on the thread you'll notice i cover economic fundamentals. (very early in this crisis)
NT
the main message to fellow getbiggers is: when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad. this ultimately will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
imo, the above mentioned will hit the stock market HARD in the coming months and the little guy stuck in a 401k will get slaughtered on the way down.(as usual) conversely, professionals on wall street make money if markets go up.......or down.
i've been in this industry for many years and have NEVER seen a situation quite like the one developing.............i just hope people listen.
NT
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GBers.....continue to focus on Dow 7,800 as major support. Dow Industrials was down 203.00 points today, closing @ 8,175
IMO if we break 7,800........Dow 7,000 is very possible.
keep in mind, locating a Market bottom is a process, not an event. until then, my long term strategy remains unchanged.
NT
Oct 27 Nine major US banks will receive 125 billion dollars in capital injections this week from the US government, a Treasury official said Monday.
Assistant Treasury Secretary David Nason told CNBC television that "We executed the agreements for the nine institutions late last night so the money will go out the door for these institutions early this week."
The nine will get half of the 250 billion dollars to be invested by the government in the banks as part of a massive rescue of the financial system.
The nine banks are Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Merrill Lynch, soon to be taken over by Bank of America.
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Because you don't add value. Just another attention whore shouting ME ME ME anytime people's attention is focused elsewhere.
hahaha why don't you post from your main account bitch?
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hahaha why don't you post from your main account bitch?
Dante knows who I am, not a gimmick, nor have I ever posted under one. You are the one that takes this shit too seriously, creating fake accounts and accusing others of the same.
Dumbass...
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Dante knows who I am, not a gimmick, nor have I ever posted under one. You are the one that takes this shit too seriously, creating fake accounts and accusing others of the same.
Dumbass...
Hahaha listen to her "debate"...
I see Dante on a weekly basis; his wife does my hair and his proteins flow through my body 24hr a day. We live 15 mins from each other...
Only a deep tool would try to use reconaissance as an internet argument.
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Hahaha listen to her "debate"...
I see Dante on a weekly basis; his wife does my hair and his proteins flow through my body 24hr a day. We live 15 mins from each other...
Only a deep tool would try to use reconaissance as an internet argument.
:-X
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Hahaha listen to her "debate"...
I see Dante on a weekly basis; his wife does my hair and his proteins flow through my body 24hr a day. We live 15 mins from each other...
Only a deep tool would try to use reconaissance as an internet argument.
You are not only an egomaniac, but in this case also a complete Fool
I am not a gimmick, and you can verify that with one email.
However, you won't because you have run your mouth too much.
You mean reconNaissance... this coming from an individual with nothing better to do then track down Squadfather and expose him. Yet, you are going to make an incorrect claim against me and refuse to utilize the reputable source of verification that I've mentioned earlier.
Epic delay of an inevitable Self Owning...
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his proteins flow through my body 24hr a day.
Right from his man tap I bet.
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Right from his man tap I bet.
Are you implying that Alex23 prefers to ingest his protein via a hot beef injection?
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Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.3 percent annual pace, less than forecast, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington.
Anyone believe it was only .3%?
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where's neurotoxin?
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Stocks fall as investors ponder Obama presidency
Nov. 5, 2008
A case of post-election nerves sent stocks plunging Wednesday as investors, again anxious about a recession, began questioning what impact a Barack Obama presidency will have on business and the overall economy. The Dow Jones industrials dropped more than 400 points and the major indexes all fell more than 4 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081105/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street
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I'm disappointed. I thought the news of Obama's presidency would send stocks soaring. :(
Stocks open lower as economic woes mount
Nov. 6, 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street
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I'm disappointed. I thought the news of Obama's presidency would send stocks soaring. :(
Stocks open lower as economic woes mount
Nov. 6, 2008
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081106/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street
Everyone is finally getting back to reality. 2009 is going to be brutal by some predictions. Peter Schiff rips into an Obama presidency.
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Wow Peter Schiff is BANG on. Everyone thinking Obama will save them is in for a severe shock.
Makes some epically resonating statements.
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like stocks in a downtrend ? ::)
Gold, silver, platinum, palladium,
In other words commodities people. CDs, bonds... LOL dude those are going down too. They are tied to the dollar. The dollar is going down in a blaze of glory. "They" want a new currency. Take everyone to zero and you can institute one with little fallout.
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my colleagues and i believe if Dow 7,800 is held and Obama wins the election, the market will begin to turn in a positive direction.
let's hope so.
NT
NT,
I hope so too! Do you still believe this? When do you believe this will happen?
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In other words commodities people. CDs, bonds... LOL dude those are going down too. They are tied to the dollar. The dollar is going down in a blaze of glory. "They" want a new currency. Take everyone to zero and you can institute one with little fallout.
Bingo... :-\
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I see some people shocked that the market didn't recover at word of an Obama win. Isn't wanting that to happen just asking for there to be an Obama bubble? wouldn't it be best to see an action driven rise and not a faith driven rise? I realise the speculation factor but maybe it's good that the market didn't just shoot up on an Obama win?
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GBers.....continue to focus on Dow 7,800 as major support.
IMO if we break 7,800........Dow 7,000 is very possible.
keep in mind, locating a Market bottom is a process, not an event. until then, my long term strategy remains unchanged.
NT
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despite horrible economic news (see below) the Dow managed to gain +248.02 to finish at 8,943.00.
bad news - good action is always positive for the Market. although many economic bumps in the road lie ahead, the bigger question is: can the Market weather further incoming recessionary data without breaking major support levels ?
Dow support @ 7,800.00 will remain key.
NT
U.S. Economy: Jobless Rate Climbs to 14-Year High
Nov. 7 The U.S. unemployment rate rose to the highest level since 1994 as companies slashed payrolls, setting the stage for the steepest economic decline in decades and a tough start for Barack Obama's presidency.
The jobless rate rose to 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent the previous month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. Employers fired 240,000 workers after a loss of 284,000 in September. Revisions to the previous month added 25,000 more to the jobless lines than previously reported.
The surge in unemployment, coupled with other signs the economy nosedived last month, puts pressure on Obama to quickly name his economic team and spell out his planned remedies. It may also spur congressional Democrats to enact in coming weeks a second fiscal stimulus package.
25-Year High
The total number of unemployed Americans jumped to 10.08 million last month, the highest level in a quarter-century, today's report showed.
Economists had anticipated a 200,000 drop in payrolls after a previously estimated 159,000 decline in September, according to the median of 78 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The median forecast for the unemployment rate was 6.3 percent.
``We're heading for a deep recession,'' said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``Banish the word mild from your vocabulary. It's big, it's bad and it's broad-based.''
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Unemployment is kinda a messed up statistic tho NT.
A lot of unionites claim UEI for a good part of every year, and go on when they don't want to work.
Also I think I read somewhere that most people who go on stay on for the maximum time that they can...
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2 more banks go belly-up
November 8, 2008
NEW YORK The tally of failed banks in 2008 rose to 19 as the government announced that a Texas and a California bank had been shuttered Friday night.
Franklin Bank, a Houston, Texas-based bank and Security Pacific Bank, a Los Angeles, Calif.-based bank were shut down by state regulators Friday, marking the 18th and 19th bank failures this year.
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I have been away from getbig most of this year probably...but back when shit DID hit the fan and I took a pretty big hit ( for me anyway) on my 401k the first thing I thought of was THIS THREAD I told a coworker "Some dude on a message board I used to post on predicted this shit like a year ago... :-\
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a recessionary U.S. reverberates worldwide.
NT
China Announces $586 Billion Stimulus Plan
November 9
BEIJING — China unveiled a $586 billion stimulus package Sunday in its biggest move to inoculate the world's fourth-largest economy against the global financial crisis.
China's export-driven economy is starting to feel the pinch of weakening U.S. and European economies, and the government has already cut key interest rates three times in less than two months in a bid to spur economic expansion.
Economic growth slowed to 9 percent in the third quarter, the lowest level in five years and a sharp decline from last year's 11.9 percent.
That is considered dangerously slow for a government that needs to create jobs for millions of new workers who enter the economy every year and to satisfy a public that has come to expect steadily rising incomes.
Exports have been growing at an annual rate of more than 20 percent but analysts expect that may fall as low as zero in coming months as global demand weakens.
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Ohio braces for possible DHL layoffs
About 8,000 job cuts reportedly may be announced tomorrow, when DHL's parent company releases its quarterly earnings report.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/09/news/companies/dhl/index.htm?postversion=2008110922
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Dow retreated -78.00 points closing @ 8,870.00
on a positive note volume is light.
NT
Nov. 10 U.S. stocks dropped as a worsening outlook for companies from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Google Inc. overshadowed China's $586 billion stimulus plan and pledges by the world's biggest nations to bolster economic growth.
Goldman fell 8.5 percent after Barclays PLC said the stock- market rout may drag the firm to its first quarterly loss since going public. General Motors Corp., which last week said it may run out of cash, lost almost a quarter of its value after Deutsche Bank AG said the automaker's shares may go to zero. Google Inc., the biggest seller of online ads, sank 3.7 percent on concern fourth-quarter revenue growth will stall.
``The market doesn't really have a handle on the depth of the recession's duration,'' said John Wilson, co-director of equity strategy at Memphis, Tennessee-based Morgan Keegan, which manages $120 billion. ``There's still a lot of fear out there.''
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index retreated 1.3 percent to 919.21, extending last week's 3.9 percent slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 73.27 points, or 0.8 percent, to 8,870.54. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 1.9 percent to 1,616.74. Almost three stocks declined for each that advanced on the New York Stock Exchange.
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We need some more bad news to get the market into positive territory again. ::) Down 300, up 400, negative all day only to rebound in the last hour.... I'm ready to give up on this stuff.
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I long got away from the financial system. I'm not going to sit around and watch my investments rise and fall at the whims of a selected few people. If you want your fortunes based on a demented type of poker game, be my guest.
I refuse any sort of loan. I have but one credit card(for hotel purposes) which is locked in a safe. I have no mortgage, no car payment, no loan of any sort.
The US will remain in recession, will continue to ship jobs overseas, and be inundated with cheap, slave-labor imports.
It's time for protectionist measures...and fast.
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not much positive news to report. (below) Dow closed down -176 points to close @8,693.00.
i'd personally like to see the market consolidate above the 7,800 area over the next few months.
the longer we can hold support with incoming negative data...... the better.
NT
Nov. 11 U.S. stocks dropped for a second day as a deteriorating outlook for American industry and oil's drop below $59 a barrel signaled the economic slump may deepen.
General Motors Corp. tumbled to the lowest price since 1943 as the automaker crept closer to bankruptcy, while Tyco International Ltd., the world's largest maker of security systems, sank 14 percent on a profit forecast that trailed analysts' estimates. Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. slid 23 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said investment losses may force insurers to raise more capital and threaten credit ratings. All 40 energy shares in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index decreased as crude declined to a 19-month low.
The S&P 500 fell 20.26 points, or 2.2 percent, to 898.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 176.58, or 2 percent, to 8,693.96 as 29 of its 30 companies retreated. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 2.2 percent to 1,580.9. Five stocks declined for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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it looks as if we may test the Oct 10th low. (7,8O0.00) in the event we fail to hold that low, 7,200 would be our next long term institutional support area.
Dow was lower -410 points to close at 8,282.00.
NT
Nov. 12 U.S. stocks fell for a third day as the Treasury's plan to use bailout funds to shore up consumer lending and Best Buy Co.'s warning of a ``seismic'' slowdown in spending stoked concern the credit crisis is far from over.
American Express Co. tumbled 10 percent on a report the company may need government aid. Citigroup Inc. and the Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index slid to 12-year lows as the Treasury scrapped plans to buy mortgage assets and shifted focus to consumer credit. Best Buy, the largest electronics retailer, lost 8 percent after saying profit will decrease in ``the most difficult climate we've ever seen.'' Occidental Petroleum Corp. dropped 11 percent as crude sank below $57 a barrel.
``It's hard to get away from the drumbeat of negatives,'' said Liam Dalton, who oversees $1.3 billion as New York-based chief executive officer of Axiom Capital Management. Best Buy's forecast cut is ``a further sign of the retrenchment of the consumer and spending that's slowing very, very rapidly across the board.''
The S&P 500 dropped 5.2 percent to 852.32 and lost 8.5 percent over the past three days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 411.3 points, or 4.7 percent, to 8,282.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 5.2 percent to 1,499.21, a five-year low. More than 24 stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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the Oct 10th low is now in sight.
the question is: can we hold support ?
NT
Note: the Dow is down nearly 50% from the same time last yr.
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we just struck 7,900 area........i'd expect a short cover bounce very soon.
NT
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as expected, we tested the Oct 10th low and bounced nicely. a positive sign for the market. the longer we hold this base.....the better.
NT
Nov. 13, 2008 U.S. stocks rallied Thursday afternoon after a series of rises and dips, as the market down for three straight days tried to absorb rising unemployment claims and reduced outlooks from Intel Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
After rising more than 100 points at the start, only to lapse below 8,000 for the first time since Oct. 10. the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced +552.59 points to close at 8,835.00
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we just struck 7,900 area........
NT
exactly one year ago to the day, the Dow sat @ 14,000:
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key.
if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
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exactly one year ago to the day, the Dow sat @ 14,000:
Money markets...sounds like a good way to preservate capital with so many breaking the buck, great advice :)
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Bernanke hints at rate cut
Fed chairman says policymakers are 'ready to take additional steps' as markets remain volatile and economy weakens.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Warning that financial markets remain under "severe strain," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged Friday to work closely with other central banks to fix global financial problems and left open the door to a fresh interest rate cut to help brace the sinking U.S. economy.
The Fed chief's remarks appeared to reinforce the view of Wall Street investors and economists that the Fed probably will lower interest rates again on Dec. 16, its last regularly scheduled meeting this year. The Fed's key rate is now at 1%.
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October budget deficit hits record of $237.2B
Thursday November 13, 10:06 pm ET
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
Government begins budget year with record deficit of $237.2 billion, reflecting bailout
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The federal government began the new budget year with a record deficit of $237.2 billion, reflecting the billions of dollars the government has started to pay out to rescue the financial system.
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Sears to close 7 more stores.
Sears Holdings Corp. plans to shutter another seven poor performing stores in February, bringing to 19 the number of stores pegged to close early next year as retailers grapple with one of the worst consumer spending environments in decades.
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although i do not recommend individual stocks, i personally like JRCC.
NT
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although i do not recommend individual stocks, i personally like JRCC.
NT
Im sure its gonna be a great advice just as money markets ::)
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i see. you'd rather lose 50% of your 401k's value, rather than put it on the sidelines making 4%.
makes sense.
NT
ps this is my last reply to your useless posts.
You didnt answer the main question, money market funds are breaking the buck, how is that a great deal ::)
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You didnt answer the main question, money market funds are breaking the buck, how is that a great deal ::)
What have stocks made since Nov 2007?
Dumbass. Go back to G&O
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What have stocks made since Nov 2007?
Dumbass. Go back to G&O
ok i got the point, money market funds will protect my money ::)
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i see. you'd rather lose 50% of your 401k's value, rather than put it on the sidelines making 4%.
makes sense.
NT
ps this is my last reply to your useless posts.
Neurotoxin, why is it a bad idea to leave your money in stocks if you're looking at the long term (let's say 10 or 20 years away from retirement)? I think saying "get out of equity" right now is really not such a good bet. I mean, I bough UBS at $14.00 and you know that company ain't going down the drain, they got plenty of cash. I bought Goldman Sachs at $ 98.37 and you know GS ain't going down.
It's just a wait and sell game, which requires patience. I will sell both when they go back up to $ 60.00 for UBS and $ 234.00 for GS. And they will. I mean, if you want to "play the market" your strategy is fine, but the temporary loss of let's say 40% of your 401k plan will be recouped in a few years.
Whatcha think?
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Neurotoxin, why is it a bad idea to leave your money in stocks if you're looking at the long term (let's say 10 or 20 years away from retirement)? I think saying "get out of equity" right now is really not such a good bet. I mean, I bough UBS at $14.00 and you know that company ain't going down the drain, they got plenty of cash. I bought Goldman Sachs at $ 98.37 and you know GS ain't going down.
It's just a wait and sell game, which requires patience. I will sell both when they go back up to $ 60.00 for UBS and $ 234.00 for GS. And they will. I mean, if you want to "play the market" your strategy is fine, but the temporary loss of let's say 40% of your 401k plan will be recouped in a few years.
Whatcha think?
Slapper, i would not advise someone to exit the market now, especially if they did not act last year. i gave my "sell and protect your money" opinion Nov. 2007, before the 40+% drop in equities. jumping ship now would be foolish IMO.
current technical analysis and market fundamentals are still extremely weak. this leads me to believe theres more downside risk before we bottom. that said, if someone avoided the 40+% market crash and is looking out 5+ yrs, buying certain sectors now is not necessarily a bad idea. (as you're doing)
as far as the 20 year buy and hold theory goes.....its been nearly 10 yrs since the Tech bubble burst at 5,000+. the NASDAQ is currently trading at 1,500 a decade later. it may take another 20 yrs to hit break even @ NASDAQ 5,000+. although the Dow and S&P have acted somewhat better, returns over the last 10 years are also a net negative. neither of those "returns" are in my best interest.
Hedge Funds and the like have changed the Market game from buy and hold forever, (as our parents did) to being more nimble and avoiding big downturns/crashes that now take decades to recover from.
just my opinion.
NT
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Slapper, i would not advise someone to exit the market now, especially if they did not act last year. i gave my "sell and protect your money" opinion Nov. 2007, before the 40+% drop in equities. jumping ship now would be foolish IMO.
current technical analysis and market fundamentals are still extremely weak. this leads me to believe theres more downside risk before we bottom. that said, if someone avoided the 40+% market crash and is looking out 5+ yrs, buying certain sectors now is not necessarily a bad idea. (as you're doing)
as far as the 20 year buy and hold theory goes.....its been nearly a 10 yrs since the Tech bubble burst at 5,000+. the NASDAQ is currently trading at 1,500 a decade later. it may take another 20 yrs to hit break even @ NASDAQ 5,000+. although the Dow and S&P have acted somewhat better, returns over the last 10 years are also a net negative. neither of those "returns" are in my best interest.
Hedge Funds and the like have changed the Market game from buy and hold forever, (as our parents did) to being more nimble and avoiding big downturns/crashes that now take decades to recover from.
just my opinion.
NT
I see your point. Thanks.
By the way, You Da Man.
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The best time to invest in the stock market is when nobody is investing. If you're intelligent / lucky enough to invest in the best companies now, whilst rates are at rock bottom, the higher potential you have for growth on the money you put into the system.
If you have some disposable income that you wouldn't commit suicide over losing, then I highly suggest you invest in "solid", market leading companies with proven income and a high liquid cash holdings, e.g. MSFT, GOOG.
There's never an opportunity to get rich quite like investing on the stock market during a recession.
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as additional economic data comes in, continue to focus on institutional support. (7,800-7,900)
if we breach support in this environment... things could get very ugly.
NT
Nov. 17 - U.S. stocks slid, extending a two- week drop, as a record contraction in New York manufacturing and Citigroup Inc.'s plan to cut 50,000 jobs spurred concern the recession will deepen.
``You're going to continue to get barraged with bad economic data,'' Bill Stone, who oversees $56 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia, told Bloomberg Television. ``Earnings have hit a wall or fallen off a cliff in a lot of cases. You're not likely to see much help from this front for a while.''
The S&P 500 declined 2.6 percent to 850.75 after swinging between gains and losses at least 18 times as energy shares climbed earlier in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 223.73, or 2.6 percent, to 8,273.58. The Nasdaq Composite slid 2.3 percent to 1,482.05. Three stocks fell for each three that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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The best time to invest in the stock market is when nobody is investing. If you're intelligent / lucky enough to invest in the best companies now, whilst rates are at rock bottom, the higher potential you have for growth on the money you put into the system.
If you have some disposable income that you wouldn't commit suicide over losing, then I highly suggest you invest in "solid", market leading companies with proven income and a high liquid cash holdings, e.g. MSFT, GOOG.
There's never an opportunity to get rich quite like investing on the stock market during a recession.
Spoken like a champ. I'm amazed at how many good buy opportunities out there these days...
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Spoken like a champ. I'm amazed at how many good buy opportunities out there these days...
I called on GM last Tuesday when the stock hit 2.77, stating that Wednesday will be a good time to start buying. They will not let GM fail. Closed at 3.18 today.
Patience grasshopper.
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Other stocks on my watch list:
BOOM, XETA (which I already bought @1.80), PRKR, INPH, CSCO.
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I see your point. Thanks.
By the way, You Da Man.
thank you.
NT
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as additional economic data comes in, continue to focus on institutional support. (7,800-7,900)
if we breach support in this environment... things could get very ugly.
NT
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I called on GM last Tuesday when the stock hit 2.77, stating that Wednesday will be a good time to start buying. They will not let GM fail. Closed at 3.18 today.
Patience grasshopper.
GM is a complete gamble.
If the Gov bails them out, they will take their share of ownership. What happens to dividends for common shares? bonuses to bring in new management? and you also have the crippling effect of partnering with government.
How do you see this unfolding?
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GM is a complete gamble.
If the Gov bails them out, they will take their share of ownership. What happens to dividends for common shares? bonuses to bring in new management? and you also have the crippling effect of partnering with government.
How do you see this unfolding?
agreed. I'd rather play Craps.
bankruptcy and GM is still a strong possibility.
NT
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high volatility, Market up 200, down 200, up 151.
still holding support.
NT
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained in the last hour of trading as a rally in energy and technology shares overpowered earlier declines spurred by a drop in homebuilder confidence to the lowest level on record.
The S&P 500 added 1 percent to 859.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 151.17 points, or 1.8 percent, to 8,424.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,483.27. About six stocks retreated for every five that advanced on the New York Stock Exchange.
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high volatility, Market up 200, down 200, up 151.
still holding support.
NT
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks gained in the last hour of trading as a rally in energy and technology shares overpowered earlier declines spurred by a drop in homebuilder confidence to the lowest level on record.
The S&P 500 added 1 percent to 859.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 151.17 points, or 1.8 percent, to 8,424.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,483.27. About six stocks retreated for every five that advanced on the New York Stock Exchange.
Nerotaxing, where do you get all this non-public tremendous information from?
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Nerotaxing, where do you get all this non-public tremendous information from?
How's that GM stock pick doing?
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How's that GM stock pick doing?
im sure its still better than a money market fund breaking the buck :)
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as additional economic data comes in, continue to focus on institutional support. (7,800-7,900)
if we breach support in this environment... things could get very ugly.
NT
U.S. Stocks Slide on Concern Recession Is Deepening; GM Tumbles
Nov. 19 U.S. stocks sank and benchmark indexes slid below their lowest closes since 2003 on growing concern over the fate of the nation's car industry and economic data signaling the recession is deepening.
General Motors Corp. tumbled as much as 18 percent to its lowest price since 1942, while Ford Motor Co. lost 24 percent. Citigroup Inc. slid 17 percent to $6.90, a 13-year low, on a plan to buy $17.4 billion of assets from structured investment vehicles it advises. Government reports showing the biggest decrease in consumer prices and the fewest housing starts on record sent JPMorgan Chase & Co., Cisco Systems Inc. and General Electric Co. to declines of more than 5 percent.
The S&P 500 slipped 4.1 percent to 806.00, extending its 2008 retreat to 45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -427.03 points, to 7,997.00 The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 4.3 percent to 1,419.17. Seventeen stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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economic data for tomorrow. :o
Jobless Claims
Leading Indicators
Philadelphia Fed Survey
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How's that GM stock pick doing?
patience, patience...
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U.S. Stocks Slide on Concern Recession Is Deepening; GM Tumbles
Nov. 19 U.S. stocks sank and benchmark indexes slid below their lowest closes since 2003 on growing concern over the fate of the nation's car industry and economic data signaling the recession is deepening.
General Motors Corp. tumbled as much as 18 percent to its lowest price since 1942, while Ford Motor Co. lost 24 percent. Citigroup Inc. slid 17 percent to $6.90, a 13-year low, on a plan to buy $17.4 billion of assets from structured investment vehicles it advises. Government reports showing the biggest decrease in consumer prices and the fewest housing starts on record sent JPMorgan Chase & Co., Cisco Systems Inc. and General Electric Co. to declines of more than 5 percent.
The S&P 500 slipped 4.1 percent to 806.00, extending its 2008 retreat to 45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -427.03 points, to 7,997.00 The Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 4.3 percent to 1,419.17. Seventeen stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
Dow 5000 here we come. :)
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GOVERNMENTS CAN'T HANDLE GLOBAL RUN ON GOLD COINS
There's a worldwide run on gold coins.
Even as the price of the precious metal itself comes under pressure along with commodities like oil and copper, people around the world are demanding so many of the valuable coins that government mints are having difficulty filling orders.
A spokesperson for the US Mint tells me that gold coins in this country, for the past month, "are being allocated because of an increased demand."
In one sense, the attraction for gold coins isn't surprising. Since ancient times, gold has been considered the safest investment to hold in times of uncertainty.
With fears of future inflation rising and concern about the value of paper currency and government-debt increasing with each new recovery plan announced in Washington and in foreign capitals, the desire to hold gold grows.
How could there be such a dichotomy between the historic high premium for coins all over the world and the low Comex price?
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Buffett obviously has not followed this thread. ;D
NT
Nov. 20 Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. fell the most in at least 23 years, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third- quarter profit.
The stock has plunged 41 percent this year, compared with the 45 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Berkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on falling returns at insurance businesses and investment losses.
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CREDIT CARDS WILL BE THE NEXT BIG FINANCIAL BLOWUP
WASHINGTON is so nervous that credit cards will become the next financial sinkhole that the government will soon ask banks to go through the arduous task of running tests on hundreds of millions of their cardholders.
On Oct. 7, the Office of the Controller of the Currency put together a test called Definitions of Data Fields Collected Monthly at the Account Level, which asks banks nationwide to put the 700 million or so credit cards in existence to a test of 74 questions.
I mentioned a few months back that the government was getting worried about credit-card defaults and that it was trying to put together a way to measure the problem by September, an unachievable deadline that came and went without any results.
Now, finally the government is ready to move and will probably seek out someone to make sense of the data once the banks put their credit cards to the test.
Question 11 on the test is, "Student Credit Card Flag - indicate whether a credit card is internally identified as a student credit card."
Question 27 is "report dollar and number of all applicants that applied for credit with a FICO score below the bank's normal cutoff FICO score."
Quick, close the barn door, the cows have already left.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11202008/business/credit_cards_will_be_the_next_big_financ_139703.htm
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Buffett obviously has not followed this thread. ;D
NT
Nov. 20 Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. fell the most in at least 23 years, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third- quarter profit.
The stock has plunged 41 percent this year, compared with the 45 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Berkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on falling returns at insurance businesses and investment losses.
I think the world's greatest investor is going to be ok. ::)
GOVERNMENTS CAN'T HANDLE GLOBAL RUN ON GOLD COINS
There's a worldwide run on gold coins.
Even as the price of the precious metal itself comes under pressure along with commodities like oil and copper, people around the world are demanding so many of the valuable coins that government mints are having difficulty filling orders.
A spokesperson for the US Mint tells me that gold coins in this country, for the past month, "are being allocated because of an increased demand."
In one sense, the attraction for gold coins isn't surprising. Since ancient times, gold has been considered the safest investment to hold in times of uncertainty.
With fears of future inflation rising and concern about the value of paper currency and government-debt increasing with each new recovery plan announced in Washington and in foreign capitals, the desire to hold gold grows.
How could there be such a dichotomy between the historic high premium for coins all over the world and the low Comex price?
Gold has turn out to be a shit hedge in this current environment.
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Gold has turn out to be a shit hedge in this current environment.
It all depends on what you thnk will happen in the coming months.
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as additional economic data comes in, continue to focus on institutional support. (7,800-7,900)
if we breach support in this environment... things could get very ugly.
NT
finally breached support and things got ugly. Dow down - 444.00 points to close at 7,552.00 Dow 7,200-7,300 is next important institutional support level.
Dow Nov. 2007 =14,200
Dow Nov. 2008 = 7,552 and counting
to those who listened....congrats, great job. :D
Citation 5/Vegas/partying/this weekend ;)
NT
U.S. Stocks Retreat, Sending S&P to Lowest Level Since 1997
Nov. 20 U.S. stocks slid and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index plunged to its lowest level in 11 years after economic reports depicted a deepening recession and lawmakers postponed a vote on a plan to salvage the auto industry.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index extended its 2008 tumble to 49 percent, poised for the worst annual decline in its 80-year history. Chesapeake Energy Corp. and National-Oilwell Varco Inc. slid more than 21 percent as crude sank to a three-year low as the economic slump crushes demand. JPMorgan Chase & Co. tumbled 18 percent and Citigroup Inc. plunged 26 percent as concern the recession will trigger more bankruptcies pushed the cost of insurance against corporate defaults to an all-time high.
``It's an ugly mess out there,'' said Randy Bateman, who oversees $15 billion as chief investment officer of the asset management unit of Huntington Bancshares Inc. in Columbus, Ohio. ``The economy is confirming it is very, very weak.''
The S&P 500 slid 6.7 percent to 752.58, under the low of 776.76 reached during the bear market in 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank -443.8 points, or 5.6 percent, to 7,553.48. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 5 percent to 1,317.05. Twelve stocks retreated for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
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Unemployment claims hit sixteen-year high
November 20, 2008
New claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week to a 16-year high, the Labor Department said Thursday, providing more evidence of a rapidly weakening job market expected to get even worse next year," AP reported early Thursday.
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Neurotoxin: Today Citigroup closed at $4.71! :o Their market cap is now 25.6 billion. What do you think is going to happen to Citi? ???
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors has a market capitalization of less than $2 billion. The stock, which now trades for a little under $3 a share, hit a 70-year low of $1.70 on Thursday morning before recovering a bit.
Normally, when a blue-chip company sinks to such depths of despair, it gets tossed from the S&P 500. But not only is GM (GM, Fortune 500) still a member of that index, it remains a component of the granddaddy of market barometers: the venerable Dow Jones Industrial average.
Why? Or in the words of mid-'90s self-help guru Susan Powter, "Stop the insanity!" The editors of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Indexes, who decide who's in and who's out of the Dow, soon have to come to grips with reality and remove GM from the DJIA.
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C aint going nowhere, but it seems neurotoxin is flying in his "citation v" to "las vegas"...
Most institutional investors and pension funds are barred from owning stocks below $5. So if Citigroup's stock remains below that level, it could trigger a wave of selling that would send the share price even lower.
"That's the danger of crossing that $5 threshold," says Owen Malcolm, senior vice president of Sanders Financial Management in Atlanta. "They're (Citigroup) already in trouble. It could get worse."
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The ameros Hal shows turn up to not be official. This guy Daniel Carr made them:
The http://www.dc-coin.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWCATS&Category=8
I believe they are working toward a north american union.
STOP MOCKING NEURO. This is your last warning. :)
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Gold made a nice gain today, so far.
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NT,
I'd be very interested in your take on economists Peter Schiff and Max Keiser's vehemently professed opinions that the Dollar is essentially a zombie... all but dead.
Both Schiff and Keiser believe economic COLLAPSE (not a recession; not a depression; not stagflation) is inevitable.
Could soup kitchens and Hoovervilles be making a comeback? Could the USA be a second/third world country by the end of an Obama administration, no matter what Barrack does right or wrong?
The Luke
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NT,
I'd be very interested in your take on economists Peter Schiff and Max Keiser's vehemently professed opinions that the Dollar is essentially a zombie... all but dead.
Both Schiff and Keiser believe economic COLLAPSE (not a recession; not a depression; not stagflation) is inevitable.
Could soup kitchens and Hoovervilles be making a comeback? Could the USA be a second/third world country by the end of an Obama administration, no matter what Barrack does right or wrong?
The Luke
I think the arguement against people like Peter is that the money isnt in the system yet and is just sitting in banks so the chance of inflation or hyperinflation isnt a real problem... yet. Anyone else's comments on this is appreciated.
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patience, patience...
GM is up 33% today @4.74... if you listened to me, you're up 170% if you bought when I said to...
I called on GM last Tuesday when the stock hit 2.77, stating that Wednesday will be a good time to start buying. They will not let GM fail. Closed at 3.18 today.
Patience grasshopper.
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Other stocks on my watch list:
BOOM, XETA (which I already bought @1.80), PRKR, INPH, CSCO.
BOOM 15.34 +1.32 (9.42%)
XETA 1.91 +0.01 (0.53%) bought @ 1.80
PRKR 3.39 +0.21 (6.60%) bought @ 2.34
INPH 2.25 +0.10 (4.65%) bought @ 2.31.. still under water
CSCO 16.28 +0.86 (5.58%) bought @ 15.05, in for the long run
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BOOM 15.34 +1.32 (9.42%)
XETA 1.91 +0.01 (0.53%) bought @ 1.80
PRKR 3.39 +0.21 (6.60%) bought @ 2.34
INPH 2.25 +0.10 (4.65%) bought @ 2.31.. still under water
CSCO 16.28 +0.86 (5.58%) bought @ 15.05, in for the long run
Cisco really was a good buy, I'll vouch for that. At those prices, the volume you can purchase is large too, great potential.
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Just a quick note for anyone who has recently had their eyes opened to the mechanics of this recent collapse.
You may be interested in the punditry of self-styled "financial anarchist" Max Keiser: www.maxkeiser.com
Much like this thread Keiser's website collects all the economic news that usually slips through the cracks; he succinctly cut through all the crap and subterfuge with regard to the shenanigans involved in the bank nationalizations here in Ireland.
His prediction record thus far is even than Peter Schiff, Nuriel Roubini or Jim Rogers.
But best of all he posts a weekly radio show "The Truth About Markets" which is far more insightful than Peter Schiff's efforts, and has a new BBC World tv show "The Oracle".
Be sure to check out his Al Jazeera appearances too... Keiser screaming for a fatwa against Bernanke and Paulson on live tv while the presenter squirms in the foreground is absolutely hilarious.
The Luke
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not much has changed the last couple months....hovering around 8,000 high volitility. experienced traders only. IMO long term investors should not enter this market until we reach the accumulation stage again. the banking sector must also reverse course for any sustainable rally to occur. anticipating a test of the Nov 21st low would be prudent.
many short cover rallies occur in bear markets, do not get sucked in! current technical analysis still favors being on the sideline for long term investors.
brighter days ahead ! :D
NT
U.S. Stocks Fall on Profit, Recession Concern; Microsoft Drops
Jan. 22 U.S. stocks slid, erasing about half of yesterday’s rally, as companies from Microsoft Corp. to Fifth Third Bancorp reported disappointing earnings and economic data signaled the recession is deepening.
Microsoft tumbled 10 percent after saying it’s no longer able to give forecasts for the rest of its fiscal year as the economic slump crimps demand for software. Fifth Third, Ohio’s second-largest bank, dropped 31 percent to a 22-year low after posting a third consecutive quarterly loss. Banks led declines in all 10 industry groups in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index after initial claims for unemployment benefits matched a 26-year high and housing starts fell to a record low.
The S&P 500 fell 2.1 percent to 822.85 at 3:31 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 159.78 points, or 1.9 percent, to 8,068.32. The Russell 2000 Index decreased 2.8 percent.
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its important the S+P holds 800.00....if we breach, 740.00 is my downside target.
current trading range 800 - 920
NT
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guys, by now you know the stock market crashed, just as i predicted. now the bigger question remains....where is a safe entry point / the bottom ?
because the market is a discounting mechanism, it discounts the past and anticipates the future. as an experienced technical analyst, my analysis must always be anticipatory rather than reactionary. anyone who has followed this thread understands i anticipated the crash long before bad news emerged. (using a number of indicators) conversely, the market will find a bottom long before good economic news emerges. (news tends to follow behind the direction of the market.)
as long as the thread remains positive and void of drama, i'll continue my updates and provide my opinion as to a safe long term entry point.
NT
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Good to see ya again Neuro.
What do you think about the Citi or BofA or UBS? Dirt cheap if you're looking at 25+ years of buyin'-n-holdin'.
Cheers mate.
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GM is up 33% today @4.74... if you listened to me, you're up 170% if you bought when I said to...
Thanks man I really appreciate all you have done for this thread.
Your straight forward and honest approach is refreshing, as is your unique and accurate insight, uncanny actually.
I am up 150% because of you.
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Bushisms are not allowed? ;D
;D OK
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U.S. Economy: Sales of New Homes, Durable Goods Orders Tumble
Jan. 29 Prospects for an economic recovery this year dimmed after reports today showed new-home sales collapsed, durable-goods orders slumped and a record number of Americans collected unemployment benefits.
“There really isn’t any hiding place in this economy,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.
Orders for goods designed to last several years fell in December for a fifth month, the longest slide since comparable data began in 1992, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales of new homes fell to an annual pace of 331,000, a rate that would take more than a year to clear the glut of unsold properties.
Today’s figures may heighten Federal Reserve officials’ concern, expressed yesterday after their policy meeting, about a “significant” danger the economy won’t start recovering until 2010.
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there's NOTHING "looking forward" to propel the market past the 14k level and higher, so ALL bets are off the table. infact, many of us expect a recession to rear it's ugly head in "08" w/ a corresponding market breakdown.
NT
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all my statistical data leads to a recession beginning in 08......with a LARGE market correction to follow. i could be wrong. if so, my typed words will come back to haunt me.......... but i doubt it.
NT
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i'm thinking a deep recession lasting into 09. although, the housing and banking crisis is the worst since the 1929 depression.
i believe we're currently in the beginning stages of a recession, which IMO will kick in to the market AFTER the holiday.
NT
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by the time our government finally admits the u.s. is in a recession.......it's too LATE to exit the market.
NT
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Close your Eyes if you Prefer, but the Tsunami is Coming
Don't say you weren't warned ! ;)
NT
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small investors are like cattle.....they got caught in 2000, and will AGAIN in 2008.
NT
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whenever the market is PURELY dependent on the Fed cutting rates to move HIGHER.......trouble lurks, so be careful. ;)
NT
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BTW, market down 226.44 today.
NT
WASHINGTON -- Unemployment lines stretched to the longest on record, the Labor Department reported Thursday, a sign that the U.S. labor market continues to worsen.
Continuing jobless claims rose by 159,000 in the week ended Jan. 17 to a seasonally adjusted 4.78 million, the most since the government's records began in 1967. That is the same week that the government surveyed hundreds of thousands of workplaces and households to gather information for the January employment report.
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Neuro,
I'm opening a Goldmoney.com account next week (gotta see a notary first).
Is it too late to see a proper return in gold or silver (gold broke $900 yesterday)? Was the jump from $300 to $900 the major appreciation, or do you expect gold to climb higher?
Is gold just a hedge against hyperinflation and currency devaluation at this point?
The Luke
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again, no real changes on the economic/market front. i've spent a year warning Gbers the perfect financial storm was on its way.....who could possibly act surprised now ? (except the fucking clowns who post)
remember guys, all "rallies" are designed to lure dumb money/suckers into buying. IMO stay away.
NT
U.S. Stocks Drop, Capping Market’s Worst January, on Economy
Jan. 30 U.S. stocks slid, capping the market’s worst January, as more companies reported disappointing earnings and the economy shrank at the fastest pace in 26 years.
The S&P 500 slipped 2.3 percent to 825.88 to complete a fourth straight weekly drop, its longest losing streak since July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 148.15 points, or 1.8 percent, to 8,000.86. The Russell 2000 Index of small U.S. companies declined 2.1 percent.
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Luke, i'll answer via PM.
NT
Neuro, Please copy/paste that to me as I am interested in your thoughts as well.
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Luke, i'll answer via PM.
NT
Just answer here, many people would like to know.
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story behind this picture...... as we're coming in for our final approach, i instruct my captain and co-pilot to park the plane so the backdrop shows LV hotels. both guys looked at me like WTF ??? but said nothing. it probably took an additional 30 mins of maneuvering when we landed to get the MGM and Luxor in the shot. 8)
NT
I'd take a picture of my plane but it's too big and wont fit in the shot no matter how far back I stand from it, you'll just have to believe me. ;D
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Just answer here, many people would like to know.
BD, answered via PM.
NT
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Good to see ya again Neuro.
What do you think about the Citi or BofA or UBS? Dirt cheap if you're looking at 25+ years of buyin'-n-holdin'.
Cheers mate.
for now, stay away IMO. more domino's could fall.
NT
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anticipating a test of the Nov 21st low would be prudent.
NT
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its important the S+P holds 800.00....if we breach, 740.00 is my downside target.
NT
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we recently experienced the worst January in the history of the S&P 500, which fell 8.6%.
historically, as January goes, so goes the year. ( 75% of the time )
just something to ponder....
NT
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plunger team doing a fantastic job keeping S&P above 800. imo w/o these internal/external forces at work, market would aggressively capitulate. instead, a slow organized bleedout....
Dow fell just 64 points despite less than stellar economic news.
NT
U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Shrinks, Spending Falls
Feb. 2 Manufacturing in the U.S. shrank again last month and consumer spending recorded an unprecedented sixth monthly decline in December, offering no sign the economy has hit bottom.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index was 35.6 in January; readings less than 50 signal a contraction and the measure has been below that level since February 2008. The Commerce Department said personal spending fell 1 percent in December, and reported a third monthly drop in construction.
Factories are likely to cut back further as the slump in household purchases leaves companies with stockpiles of unsold goods. General Motors Corp. plans to slash production at 15 plants through June in an effort to work off the surplus inventory, and Chrysler LLC, Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are also cutting back.
“The numbers are still terribly weak,” said James O’Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “Manufacturing is still contracting rapidly” while consumer spending is unlikely to recover “for a while,” he said.
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I am impressed at PPT's efforts. But a crash is coming at some point. The greedy bastards are looking at eachother sweat like theyre at a poker table just waiting for one of em to flinch so they can all hi-tail it to an overseas account.... ;D
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I am impressed at PPT's efforts. But a crash is coming at some point. The greedy bastards are looking at eachother sweat like theyre at a poker table just waiting for one of em to flinch so they can all hi-tail it to an overseas account.... ;D
A crash? HAHA LMAO! A stock market crash is the last thing governments have to worry about at this point. People are rioting all over the world. Shit is getting deep. Stock market crash or not..........people are losing their jobs. The stock market crashing won't do shit to increase or decrease unemployment. What's on the horizon will be 10 times worse than the great depression.
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A crash? HAHA LMAO! A stock market crash is the last thing governments have to worry about at this point. People are rioting all over the world. Shit is getting deep. Stock market crash or not..........people are losing their jobs. The stock market crashing won't do shit to increase or decrease unemployment. What's on the horizon will be 10 times worse than the great depression.
This thread is mostly about the market side of things. I agree that major shit is coming, tho.
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dow up 141 points yesterday, down 121 today to close @ 7,956.00
the stock market cannot produce a sustainable rally without the banks....period. with more potential bad news on the horizon, all "rallies" should be considered suspect imo.
NT
U.S. Stocks Retreat, Led by Consumer Companies, on Earnings
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks retreated as disappointing earnings at Kraft Foods Inc. and Walt Disney Co. triggered a sell-off in consumer shares and concern over the health of Bank of America Corp. snuffed out a rally in banks.
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Toyota shuts down all but one assembly line
TOYOTA CITY, Japan Feb. 5 On what was to be a historic day halting all of Toyota's Japanese assembly lines, the automaker announced late Thursday that it kept one line running.
Toyota, called the current economy "unprecedented, the likes of which haven't been seen in 100 years."
Toyota also said the assembly line shutdowns are an attempt to save what jobs the automaker can.
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The market is rebounding right now. Did the new record jobless claims help? :) ::)
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The market is rebounding right now. Did the new record jobless claims help? :) ::)
without intervention by the PPT, this market implodes.
NT
Jobless claims highest in 26 years. Continuing claims set record high.
NEW YORK -- The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits surged last week to a level not seen since October 1982, according to a government report released Thursday.
The number of initial jobless claims jumped to a much-higher-than-expected 626,000 in the week ended Jan, 31, according to the Labor Department. That's up from a revised 591,000 in the previous week and the highest level since the last week of October 1982, when jobless claims reached 637,000.
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the stock market cannot produce a sustainable rally without the banks....period.
U.S. Stocks Gain, Led by Banks.
Feb. 5 U.S. stocks advanced for a second day after MasterCard Inc.’s profit topped estimates and an analyst said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are healthy enough to repay government bailout funds.
MasterCard, the world’s second-largest credit-card network, jumped 13 percent. Goldman Sachs climbed 5.3 percent and Morgan Stanley added 6.4 percent to lead a rally in financials that lifted Bank of America Corp. from a 24-year low.
The S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent to 845.61 The index lost as much as 1.5 percent in early trading after initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to a 26-year high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 106.02 points, or 1.3 percent, to 8,060.68.
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U.S. Stocks Gain, Led by Banks.
Feb. 5 U.S. stocks advanced for a second day after MasterCard Inc.’s profit topped estimates and an analyst said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are healthy enough to repay government bailout funds.
MasterCard, the world’s second-largest credit-card network, jumped 13 percent. Goldman Sachs climbed 5.3 percent and Morgan Stanley added 6.4 percent to lead a rally in financials that lifted Bank of America Corp. from a 24-year low.
The S&P 500 rose 1.6 percent to 845.61 The index lost as much as 1.5 percent in early trading after initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to a 26-year high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 106.02 points, or 1.3 percent, to 8,060.68.
I remember one of your posts from last year stating the dow would one day hover around 7900, here it comes!! I think another million or more A.R.M.'s are going to reset this year and keep us in turmoil. How low you think the dow will go now NT?? Be interesting to see the REAL bottom of this mess!!
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The real bottom is the Dow Jones at ZERO... when the dollar collapses; followed by the pound sterling; followed by the ruble... all to be replaced with a gold/silver (possibly also oil) backed world currency.
The Luke
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The real bottom is the Dow Jones at ZERO... when the dollar collapses; followed by the pound sterling; followed by the ruble... all to be replaced with a gold/silver (possibly also oil) backed world currency.
The Luke
I do think thats a possibility also. I dont know if it will bottom out tho or we will be slowly talked into it as our only choice. Hopefully the transition is done so people dont make a run on the banks and start looting and stuff.......it could be done in a more civil way.....
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S&P continues to hold 800 despite economic news. right now the strongest sector is SMH. (semi's) if WS ignores Fridays economic numbers,(similar to yesterday) expect a big short cover rally heading into the weekend. sparse economic data for next week could lead to a nice bear market rally.
as i've mentioned before, GS is a key player in the PPT. if GS and SMH are working together....we head higher.
S&P range = 800-920
just my opinion.
NT
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focus on how the market reacts to todays negative economic data.
keep a close eye on GS.
NT
U.S. Jobless Rate Soars as Payrolls Plunge by 598,000
Feb. 6 The unemployment rate in the U.S. climbed to the highest level since 1992 in January and payrolls tumbled as the recession showed no sign of abating.
The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Payrolls fell by 598,000, the biggest monthly decline since December 1974, after dropping by 577,000 in the previous month.
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focus on how the market reacts to todays negative economic data.
keep a close eye on GS.
NT
U.S. Jobless Rate Soars as Payrolls Plunge by 598,000
Feb. 6 The unemployment rate in the U.S. climbed to the highest level since 1992 in January and payrolls tumbled as the recession showed no sign of abating.
The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Payrolls fell by 598,000, the biggest monthly decline since December 1974, after dropping by 577,000 in the previous month.
CNN Money: Give your basement an extreme makeover.
Though Beth and Ken Wilson's 5,000-square-foot, four-bedroom home in Union, Ky. wasn't exactly cramped when they bought it in 2005, they yearned for a space that could accommodate the passions of their two oldest sons (their three boys are now 17, 12 and 2) yet allow adults to enjoy activities too. So shortly after they purchased the home, the couple decided to turn the house's dark, mostly unfinished 2,000-square-foot basement into a livable lower level.
What planet are the people at CNN on? Don't they read their own news?
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S&P continues to hold 800 despite economic news. right now the strongest sector is SMH. (semi's) if WS ignores Fridays economic numbers, (similar to yesterday) expect a big short cover rally heading into the weekend. sparse economic data for next week could lead to a nice bear market rally.
Feb. 6 U.S. stocks gained, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its best two-day rally in a month, on speculation the highest unemployment rate since 1992 will force Congress to pass an economic stimulus package.
The S&P 500 rose 2.7 percent to 868.6. The Dow added 217.52 points, or 2.7 percent, to 8,280.59, capping a 4.1 percent two- day gain. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.9 percent, erasing its 2009 loss.
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looking back it appears Bush's "robust", "broad-based" and "timely" stimulus was completely ineffective.
Bush borrowed and spent America into the poor house/depression. he's currently compensated $40,000 per month by tax payers (pension) for his hard work.
NT
NT when do you expect the GDP to turn around? Here housing is already showing signs for "improvements" foreclosures are moving pretty fast, anything that shows well moves in a matter of days. I've made several offers I'm waiting on.
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NT when do you expect the GDP to turn around? Here housing is already showing signs for "improvements" foreclosures are moving pretty fast, anything that shows well moves in a matter of days. I've made several offers I'm waiting on.
...dude, we're deep into GD2 here (Great Depression Two) and you're bidding on property thinking prices are going to go UP...?
The Luke
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...dude, we're deep into GD2 here (Great Depression Two) and you're bidding on property thinking prices are going to go UP...?
The Luke
when there's blood in the streets, buy properties.
I can rent 'em for less than the mortgage payment. With all the foreclosures, everyone is renting these days.. if not I can sit on it as well....
Maybe you should pop out of your mom's basement and smell the coffee and shake the paranoia off..
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...dude, we're deep into GD2 here (Great Depression Two) and you're bidding on property thinking prices are going to go UP...?
The Luke
lol
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Having re-read my post I realise it comes off a little overly aggressive...
Rather than (dishonestly) edit my post (which has been viewed already) I'll just apologise and ask Alex23 if he could clarify what he meant a little...?
-Do you plan to immediately flip these properties?
-How long do you intend to hold these properties?
-Are you buying from distressed sellers? Well below market value?
-Aren't you worried the market could step down severely BEFORE you make it out of Escrow?
-Don't you think an asset as sizable as a house is a little too large a chip to be betting on something as wildly volatile as the current housing market...? Especially considering the general downward trend?
-Where do you live that houses are appreciating in value?
The Luke
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The Fluke, here are your answers below.
Hope this helps
-Do you plan to immediately flip these properties?
-How long do you intend to hold these properties?
Depends on the property but most likely not, 5years
-Are you buying from distressed sellers? Well below market value?
Strictly foreclosures and short sales. The worse the property "shows", the better. We also have a lot of cash so it makes it easier to negociate with the banks who own the property.
-Aren't you worried the market could step down severely BEFORE you make it out of Escrow?
Not sure what you mean but escrow take about 30days, sometimes a little less...
-Don't you think an asset as sizable as a house is a little too large a chip to be betting on something as wildly volatile as the current housing market...? Especially considering the general downward trend?
Volatile? real estate is investment in slow motion... as I said, most properties can be rented and be cashflow positive from day one.
-Where do you live that houses are appreciating in value?
San Diego County
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Alex23,
Thanks for the answer... but I'm afraid I still don't understand your reasoning.
I know Escrow takes about 30 days (longer here in Europe), but to be honest I think it's crazy to risk any amount of capital in the housing market even for that amount of time, considering what is currently happening in that market.
Let me give you a little foretaste of what is coming to the American housing market...
Here in Ireland we have a very socialist minded population, who, having suffered 800 years of disenfranchisement at the hands of British landlords (Ireland has only been a totally sovereign state since 1922) jumped headlong into a "land-rush" style housing bubble. Just like the US.
My parents humble house (30' by 30' footprint), (from the basement of which I make my posts), was valued at €800,000 in 2006 (that was equivalent to $1.2m), and house prices increased by between 12 and 22% EVERY YEAR consecutively for more than a decade. Banks offered 100+% "liars mortgages" (no proof of income); interest-only 35 year "speculators mortgages"; and 120% mortgages for working couples.
That was then.
Just last month a working married couple with a combined income of €90k (€50k and €40k) hoping to borrow a measly €120k to build on land donated to them by her parents... that's free land; full planning permission; €200k in cash and a property (nearly complete) that should be worth €480k when finished, even allowing for a 50% collapse in the housing market (would have been worth close on a mil at the peak of the boom in 2006).
They were denied the 20-year €120k mini-mortgage by Bank of Ireland on the grounds of insufficient job security...
Wait for it...
...the husband is a bank branch manager with Bank of Ireland, and the wife is a mortgage broker with Bank of Ireland.
That's what's in store for the American market.
There won't be rents-higher-than-mortgage-payments; there won't be any housing market to speak of, not when America's unemployment rate is topping 30% (according to ShadowStats.com it's already pushing 20%).
If I were you Alex I wouldn't be investing in real estate... you'll be hard pressed to make a profit, especially five years from now when America has 30% unemployment; martial law; Weimar Republic style triple digit hyperinflation; roving bands of gun-toting Mad Max style bandits; $500 a barrel oil; and people starving in the streets.
Don't think it won't happen, in the 1920s no one thought the great Depression could happen... all of that is on the way.
Meanwhile, my savings are going into gold-bullion... and the parents that were urging me to scrimp together a mortgage deposit only two years ago are now congratulating both my brother and myself for having the prescience to sit out the hysteria.
Apologies again, for the offensive remarks... it's just that your sunny outlook seems so divorced from the reality on the ground that it seems almost delusional. Again, no offense intended.
The Luke
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There won't be rents-higher-than-mortgage-payments; there won't be any housing market to speak of, not when America's unemployment rate is topping 30% (according to ShadowStats.com it's already pushing 20%).
If I were you Alex I wouldn't be investing in real estate... you'll be hard pressed to make a profit, especially five years from now when America has 30% unemployment; martial law; Weimar Republic style triple digit hyperinflation; roving bands of gun-toting Mad Max style bandits; $500 a barrel oil; and people starving in the streets.
::)
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::)
US$500 barrel oil :)
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NT when do you expect the GDP to turn around? Here housing is already showing signs for "improvements" foreclosures are moving pretty fast, anything that shows well moves in a matter of days. I've made several offers I'm waiting on.
with GDP is still contracting, i'm not comfortable making an accurate long term prediction. right now, 2010 looks to be an early GDP up tick timeframe imo.
if you're considering real estate, be very careful and play hardball (with price) as i expect the RE market to further contract in 2009. buying foreclosures and short sales is prudent, but only if you plan on holding for 5+ yrs and stumble on some really great deals.
good luck.
NT
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Neuro, is it worth stocking up on lots of gold or silver right now or should one wait it out? :-\
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with GDP is still contracting, i'm not comfortable making an accurate long term prediction. right now, 2010 looks to be an early GDP up tick timeframe imo.
if you're considering real estate, be very careful and play hardball (with price) as i expect the RE market to further contract in 2009. buying foreclosures and short sales is prudent, but only if you plan on holding for 5+ yrs and stumble on some really great deals.
good luck.
NT
Since you are keeping it positive, im gonna keep it positive also, heres my question:
You mentioned money market funds are a good choice to protect money, but how can you be sure of that when funds such as The Reserve has liquidated almost all of its funds, and the nav of the main fund is at 0,97 (broke the buck).
Also, what do you think of german banks such as commerzbank & deutsche bank. They were supposed to be pretty "conservative" (if we can call it like that, thats it) and you can see now that the goverment is taking part of them so they wont go down (even though commerzbank value is almost zero).
Last note, Whats your point of view about chinese companies being able to pay in a near future their bond compromises. No defaults yet but its getting worse.
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with GDP is still contracting, i'm not comfortable making an accurate long term prediction. right now, 2010 looks to be an early GDP up tick timeframe imo.
if you're considering real estate, be very careful and play hardball (with price) as i expect the RE market to further contract in 2009. buying foreclosures and short sales is prudent, but only if you plan on holding for 5+ yrs and stumble on some really great deals.
good luck.
NT
Thanks good to have you back. Hope the family is doing well.
Take care.
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awesome work bros. Thank you Alex, Benz and all. Well worth reading, keep it up.
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S&P trading range 800-920....currently @ 867. market will straddle the fence until Obama's plan is released. with that i'd expect a decent short cover rally up to S&P 920, before failing.
just my opinion.
NT
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S&P trading range 800-920....currently @ 867. market will straddle the fence until Obama's plan is released. with that i'd expect a decent short cover rally up to S&P 920, before failing.
market essentially flat today. Dow down 9 points.
NT
Feb. 9 Most U.S. stocks fell, snapping a two- day gain, as concern President Barack Obama’s stimulus package won’t be enough to pull the nation out of a recession outweighed a rally in financial and industrial shares.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.2 percent to 869.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 9.72 points, or 0.1 percent, to 8,270.87 and the Russell 2000 Index of small companies slipped 0.6 percent.
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S&P trading range 800-920....currently @ 867. market will straddle the fence until Obama's plan is released. with that i'd expect a decent short cover rally up to S&P 920, before failing.
experienced traders market only. long term investors should stay away imo.
my long term bearish stance is unchanged.
NT
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the market failed slightly earlier then expected, unable to strike the top of its range. (800-920)
S&P needs to hold 800 (major support) if unable, the Nov 21st low of 740 would be our next support level.
NT
NEW YORK U.S. stocks slumped sharply on Tuesday, with investors objecting to the lack of detail in the government's plan to rescue financial institutions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 381.99 points, or 4.6%, the most since Dec. 1, when it fell 679.95 points, or 7.7%. The S&P 500 declined 42.73 points, or 4.9%, to 827.16, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 66.83 points, or 4.2%, to end at 1,524.73.
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Do you think these moderate ups and downs will continue throughout 2009? Do you think they will have the same amplitude or do you think things will become more stable with smaller difference in highs/lows?
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Do you think these moderate ups and downs will continue throughout 2009? Do you think they will have the same amplitude or do you think things will become more stable with smaller difference in highs/lows?
unfortunately i see this market continuing lower. the Fed is out of ammo with regards to lowering interest rates, and corp. earning are decelerating looking forward. furthermore, no bailout plan will turn market sentiment bullish imo. (long term)
S&P holding 800 is key....if we break, things may get very ugly.
NT
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at 3pm S&P hit an intraday low of 806.00 (support area) prompting shorts to cover to close @ 835.00
800 continues to act as major support.
NT
Most U.S. Stocks Gain as Market Erases Tumble in Final Hour
Feb. 12 Most U.S. stocks rose as speculation the White House will help struggling mortgage borrowers led a rebound in banks.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded from a 3.1 percent tumble in the final hour of trading, with banks in the gauge recovering most of an 11 percent slide.
The market’s earlier slide was spurred by a jump in jobless claims to a record and concern that Congress’s economic stimulus package will fail to revive the economy.
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at 3pm S&P hit an intraday low of 806.00 (support area) prompting shorts to cover to close @ 835.00
800 continues to act as major support.
NT
Most U.S. Stocks Gain as Market Erases Tumble in Final Hour
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded from a 3.1 percent tumble in the final hour of trading, with banks in the gauge recovering most of an 11 percent slide.
Care to explain why you underlined those two sentances? Intervention?
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Care to explain why you underlined those two sentances? Intervention?
Dow was down 230 points at 3pm, S&P was at/near critical support (800)
BD, i'll let you decide. ;)
NT
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Care to explain why you underlined those two sentances? Intervention?
"It was a last 50 minutes that reminded us of the trading we saw in the fourth quarter last year where the last hour tended to see huge moves for no apparent reason," noted credit strategists from Deutsche Bank
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guys this market is nothing but smoke and mirrors, please be very careful.
eventually the market will turn, and when it does i will be here to help.
NT
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British banking group Lloyds posted a £10 Bil pre-tax loss and has fallen +40% from 100.00 to around 60.00. Heavily impacted many banking institutions in the UK.
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S&P heads to first quarter ever of negative earnings
Feb. 13, 2009 As Wall Street tracks Washington's moves to help the beleaguered banking sector and push through a massive economic stimulus, nearly 400 of the S&P's 500 companies have weighed in and reported a collective loss, even excluding the financials.
"This is the worst; after the sixth quarter of negative growth, it will be the first quarter ever of negative earnings," said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst, at Standard & Poor's.
A sixth quarter of negative growth ties the prior record set when Harry Truman was president, running from the first quarter of 1951 to the second quarter of 1952.
"Next quarter, we're expecting a new record of seven quarters of negative growth," Silverblatt added.
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just more of the same.
NT
U.S. Stocks Drop on Concern Over Bank Losses
Feb. 13 U.S. stocks fell, extending the market’s weekly retreat, after Wells Fargo & Co. said its fourth quarter loss was wider than first reported and a British bank increased provisions for bad loans.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.9 percent to 826.79 The Dow fell 82.35 points, or 1 percent, to 7,850.06.
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guys this market is nothing but smoke and mirrors, please be very careful.
eventually the market will turn, and when it does i will be here to help.
NT
I'm seeing some sectors holding on pretty well; IT infrastructure investments are up in many sectors; For us at Teradata Q4 was extremely strong; a big chunk came from investments in financial analytics; companies trying to analyze their cost structure and optimize their financial performance.
I would think SAP, ORCL, COGN will do decently well in Q1 and Q2.
Just and FYI...
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I'm seeing some sectors holding on pretty well; IT infrastructure investments are up in many sectors; For us at Teradata Q4 was extremely strong; a big chunk came from investments in financial analytics; companies trying to analyze their cost structure and optimize their financial performance.
I would think SAP, ORCL, COGN will do decently well in Q1 and Q2.
Just and FYI...
correct, the strongest sector is tech/semi's. in previous posts i mentioned the semi's being strong. although, for long term investors i'm still very cautious since the broader market is still very weak and suspect to breaking down further......taking tech with it. only when financials/banks gain strength will the overall market turn bullish.
NT
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The way you two talk to each other now is disgusting.
;D
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Neuro, Alex
Care to comment on this?
(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BASE_Max_630_378.png)
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Neuro, Alex
Care to comment on this?
(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/BASE_Max_630_378.png)
excess currency will never solve our economic conundrum.
not unlike an ill patient, a sick economy must eventually take its medicine.
NT
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excess currency will never solve our economic conundrum.
not unlike an ill patient, a sick economy must eventually take its medicine.
NT
Neurotoxin, what is in your opinion the best cure for our AIDS ridden economy?
Like a contaminated brother the economy is, I wish I could do something.
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The way you two talk to each other now is disgusting.
;D
LOL. Im losing interest too. ;D
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Neurotoxin, what is in your opinion the best cure for our AIDS ridden economy?
Like a contaminated brother the economy is, I wish I could do something.
Alex, care to comment on the graph I posted?
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Alex, care to comment on the graph I posted?
I would like to comment that there seems to be a sharp rise, recently. :P
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I would like to comment that there seems to be a sharp rise, recently. :P
It's actually declining.
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It's actually declining.
I didnt have my electron telescope at hand. I see that now. Its late, what does it mean?
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futures
Dow -104.00 -1.34% 7,675.00
NASDAQ -23.25 -1.89% 1,206.00
S&P -13.50 -1.65% 806.60
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I didnt have my electron telescope at hand. I see that now. Its late, what does it mean?
Needs more Viagra.
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I want answers people.
(http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DX&t=l&w=5&a=2&v=s)
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I want answers people.
(http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DX&t=l&w=5&a=2&v=s)
Are we crashing?? ;D My eyes hurt. :'(
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anticipating a test of the Nov 21st low would be prudent.
NT
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best free advise/opinion ever given on GetBig.
NT
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
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S&P needs to hold 800 (major support) if unable, the Nov 21st low of 740 would be our next support level.
NT
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Holy Shit! Dow down 274.
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Neurotoxin have you ever heard of this guy? What are your thoughts on his comments?
Officially “Out Of Control”
Posted By Jim Sinclair On February 15, 2009 @ 9:18 pm In General Editorial | No Comments
Dear Extended Family,
I sent you a certain few emails that I consider to be the most important communications issued in my career that started in 1958.
I am the son of what I know to have been the greatest Lone Wolf trader in Wall Street history ever, Bertram J. Seligman. He was a past master at his business and believed to be a market sensitive. I apprenticed to him, learned from him and inherited some of his ability, not all however.
From this background of experience understanding and sensitivity the following flows.
The emails of note:
1. Said, "This is it."
2. Said, "It is now."
This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, "It is totally out of control." There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.
For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.
Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.
1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven’t you are headed for significant displeasure and strain.
2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods.
3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.
4. Own gold.
5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required.
6. For currencies, all you can do is own a spread held by a true custodial ship wherever that might be.
Simply said, as of Friday February 13th, 2009 the situation is in confirmed "Out of Control" mode as this well engineered downward spiral enters into a terminal phase.
The motive was profit and degree of the disintegration caused in the pursuit of this goal was not anticipated.
The key event was when Lehman was flushed - all hell broke loose. The hell cannot be contained in any practical manner.
I seek nothing of you, but the protection of yourselves.
Respectfully yours,
Jim
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The Forever Portfolio: Betting on Aging Boomers, Obesity and Tattoo Removal
Feb 17, 2009 07:30am EST by Aaron Task in Investing
Related: WYE, PFE, CYNO, RMD, WTW, TSCM, ^DJI
"Some demographic trends are like tidal waves coming down," says James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital. "You can't avoid them [so] you might as well invest in them."
That, in a nutshell, is the thesis of Altucher's latest book: The Forever Portfolio.
Looking way beyond the market's day-to-day machinations, Altucher says the book is "investing in things for the really long term" based largely on demographic trends like:
* Aging Baby Boomers: An aging population obviously means more spending on healthcare and rising occurrence of diseases like Altzheimer's. With a potential treatment in a late-stage trial, Altucher says Wyeth is a potential investment in this devastating affliction. (And, yes, he'd buy Pfizer if the proposed merger is consummated.)
* Rising obesity: While Weight Watchers is the "obvious" play on America's bulging bulges, Altucher prefers ResMed, which makes a device to treat sleep apnea, a common malady of severely overweight people.
* Tattoo removal: An estimated 45 million Americans have at least one tattoo. A large percentage may someday want to have them removed and Cynosure is the way to play that potential trend. The company also trades at very attractive valuations relative to its cash holdings, Altucher says.
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Neurotoxin have you ever heard of this guy? What are your thoughts on his comments?
yes i'm very familiar w/ jim sinclair.
my response to his comments below.
i've been in this industry for many years and have NEVER seen a situation quite like the one developing...........i just hope people listen.
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Alex, care to comment on the graph I posted?
It's a nice graph but the res suck, I can't read the last date on the X axis
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Im glad I just got a few hundred more rounds of 9mm and .223.
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as anticipated...the S&P finally broke below 800 today. 740 should now act as our next major support level.
additional turbulence ahead.....
NT
U.S. Stocks Tumble on Recession Concern; Citigroup, GM Fall
Feb. 17 U.S. stocks tumbled to a three-month low, extending a global slump, as a record contraction in New York manufacturing spurred concern the government’s stimulus package won’t be enough to curb the deepening recession.
The S&P 500 retreated 4.6 percent to 789.17, dropping below 800 for the first time since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 297.81 points, or 3.8 percent, to 7,552.6, less than half a point above its 2008 bear-market low.
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I'll be man enough to say I got greedy with my GM speculation... I didn't make the gain I was hoping for and hold on a little too long.. so the gains after tax, wasn't worth all the monitoring... tech did really well for me; I'm actually surprised and feel pretty lucky which is not good and makes me uncomfortable.
I still think the bottom is upon us and I'm preparing assets right now; at first I had an eye on foreclosures and use the real estate as it is a "slow motion" investment sector, whatever you guys say.. it's like boxing match in 10fps... I don't see it until Q3.... until then I intend to build a little equity in the market.
On a final note, I allways though Neuro was a copy-paster gimmick/ I dont' care anymore; you have been cumulatively accurate and worth reading; I'm just disappointed the communist deleted all my posts.... hope your brother is better.
btw I'm not that fat...
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I'll be man enough to say I got greedy with my GM speculation... I didn't make the gain I was hoping for and hold on a little too long.. so the gains after tax, wasn't worth all the monitoring... tech did really well for me; I'm actually surprised and feel pretty lucky which is not good and makes me uncomfortable.
I still think the bottom is upon us and I'm preparing assets right now; at first I had an eye on foreclosures and use the real estate as it is a "slow motion" investment sector, whatever you guys say.. it's like boxing match in 10fps... I don't see it until Q3.... until then I intend to build a little equity in the market.
On a final note, I allways though Neuro was a copy-paster gimmick/ I dont' care anymore; you have been cumulatively accurate and worth reading; I'm just disappointed the communist deleted all my posts.... hope your brother is better.
btw I'm not that fat...
sorry. I didn't want to start shit with you over it. Never intentionally targeted you, it wasn't personal.
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sorry. I didn't want to start shit with you over it. Never intentionally targeted you, it wasn't personal.
It never is personal... personally, I don't take anything personal; even Hitler said that to the jews.. amid I'll admit this one could be debatable.
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market essentially flat ahead of economic data for thursday.
with the Dow and S&P at/near Nov 21st support and temporarily oversold, any semi-favorable news (real or imagined) could spark another short cover/bear market rally.
NT
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the Dow was supported in todays market at 7,550, which seemed to prevent a further run down and closed at 7,552.60, just 0.31 points higher than November 21st closing low of 7,552.29. in other words, the Dow was finding support at the November lows while the S&P 500 is still 48.15 points above its November low of 741.
tomorrow i'll will be watching both the Dow and the S&P 500 closely. in a positive scenario look for the Dow to hold 7,550 and the S&P 500 to break out above 800. if the Dow breaks down below 7,550 look for the S&P to find support near 740-750.
just my opinion.
NT
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the Dow was supported in todays market at 7,550, which seemed to prevent a further run down and closed at 7,552.60, just 0.31 points higher than November 21st closing low of 7,552.29. in other words, the Dow was finding support at the November lows while the S&P 500 is still 48.15 points above its November low of 741.
tomorrow i'll will be watching both the Dow and the S&P 500 closely. in a positive scenario look for the Dow to hold 7,550 and the S&P 500 to break out above 800. if the Dow breaks down below 7,550 look for the S&P to find support near 740-750.
just my opinion.
NT
What do you think about Schiff's comments as of late?
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What do you think about Schiff's comments as of late?
mostly agree.
NT
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mostly agree.
NT
Ok. Time to saddle up.
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anticipating a test of the Nov 21st low would be prudent.
its important the S+P holds 800.00....if we breach, 740.00 is my downside target.
S&P was unable to breakout above 800 today, resulting in another selloff. a test of the Nov. 21st low is upon us.
blood in the streets if we break the low. (740)
NT
U.S. Stocks Decline, Dow Industrials Close at Six-Year Low
Feb. 19 U.S. stocks dropped, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a six-year low, as Hewlett-Packard Co. cut its profit forecast and concern about credit-card defaults dragged financial shares to the lowest level since 1995.
The S&P 500 slid 1.2 percent to 778.94, extending its 2009 loss to 14 percent in its worst start to a year. The Dow dropped 89.68 points, or 1.2 percent, to 7,465.95, the lowest since October 2002.
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Goldman partners borrowing "tens of millions" cover Margin Calls
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unfortunately i see this market continuing lower. the Fed is out of ammo with regards to lowering interest rates, and corp. earning are decelerating looking forward. furthermore, no bailout plan will turn market sentiment bullish imo. (long term)
S&P holding 800 is key....if we break, things may get very ugly.
NT
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Goldman partners borrowing "tens of millions" cover Margin Calls
when GS executives have margin calls, watch out! :o
NT
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Bank of America's CEO is subpoenaed.
Bank of America CEO and Chairman Kenneth Lewis has been issued a subpoena by the New York State Attorney General's Office, which is investigating whether the bank violated state law by withholding information from investors, a source familiar with the investigation told CNN.
UBS accused of fraud
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. government Thursday sued UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, to force the firm to give the Internal Revenue Service secret account information on thousands of accounts believed to be worth nearly $15 billion.
The Justice Department announced Wednesday that UBS had agreed to pay $780 million in fines and restitution, and to turn over the account information. The agreement was approved by a federal court in Fort Lauderdale, Florida
What do you think about the Citi or BofA or UBS? Dirt cheap if you're looking at 25+ years of buyin'-n-holdin'.
for now, stay away IMO. more domino's could fall.
NT
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Look at gold. :o Schiff is probably blowing his load right now.
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Honestly, this is gloomy but the feeling of a consenus 'bottom' is very near; many companies have switched from a panic cost cutting mode to a bargain hunting mode... not all industries but in mine it's the pretty obvious; remember, they know before you do...
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Honestly, this is gloomy but the smell of a consenus 'bottom' is very near; ...
We've been hearing this every couple of weeks for how long now?
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For the S&P 500 companies as a whole, the 400 that have released fourth-quarter results lost a combined $75.5 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Standard & Poor’s projects a per- share loss of $11.97, the first deficit in quarterly data going back to 1936.
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We've been hearing this every couple of weeks for how long now?
we're looking at a 16-18months+ recession; 5 quarters; it'll take at least Q1- mid Q2 to bottom out; that's just my guest but based on what I see in the way corporate America are re-structuring themselves and investing "significantly" in their IT infrastructure and positioning themselves, it looks like they see the same thing.
I'll take a bet with you shmoes, If by june-july the GDP is still shrinking and corporate results are still declining, I'll go on a diet until my gay abs show up...
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For the S&P 500 companies as a whole, the 400 that have released fourth-quarter results lost a combined $75.5 billion, according to Bloomberg data. Standard & Poor’s projects a per- share loss of $11.97, the first deficit in quarterly data going back to 1936.
That's a pretty solid observation bangedhim-dunher... however, what sector dominates the S&P?
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Renowned investor George Soros said on Friday the world financial system has effectively disintegrated, adding that there is yet no prospect of a near-term resolution to the crisis.
Soros said the turbulence is actually more severe than during the Great Depression, comparing the current situation to the demise of the Soviet Union.
He said the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September marked a turning point in the functioning of the market system.
"We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros said at a Columbia University dinner. "It was placed on life support, and it's still on life support. There's no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."
His comments echoed those made earlier at the same conference by Paul Volcker, a former Federal Reserve chairman who is now a top adviser to President Barack Obama.
Volcker said industrial production around the world was declining even more rapidly than in the United States, which is itself under severe strain.
"I don't remember any time, maybe even in the Great Depression, when things went down quite so fast, quite so uniformly around the world," Volcker said.
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anticipating a short cover/bear market rally for next week would be prudent imo.
longterm outlook remains unchanged.
NT
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anticipating a short cover/bear market rally for next week would be prudent imo.
longterm outlook remains unchanged.
NT
No way. We will see <7000 by the end of next Friday easily!!!!!!!!! but I could be wrong!
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I've been watching his videos daily. He's has good POV. Here is the latest.
Don't Panic! Copper stockpiles are growing
if you click the embedded video you can see the links he is talking about.
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Don't Panic! Become as smart as your Federal Government
Change you can download: a billion in secret Congressional reports:
http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Change_you_can_download:_a_billion_in_secret_Con gressional_reports (http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Change_you_can_download:_a_billion_in_secret_Congressional_reports)
I especially liked this one too-
CRS: China and the Global Financial Crisis: Implications for the United States, November 24, 2008:
http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS:_China_and_the_Global_Fi nancial_Crisis:_Implications_for_the_Un ited_States%2C_November_24%2C_2008 (http://wikileaks.org/wiki/CRS:_China_and_the_Global_Financial_Crisis:_Implications_for_the_United_States%2C_November_24%2C_2008)
video he did earlier
Don't Panic! Taxes are due April 15 in the USA...
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we're looking at a 16-18months+ recession; 5 quarters; it'll take at least Q1- mid Q2 to bottom out; that's just my guest but based on what I see in the way corporate America are re-structuring themselves and investing "significantly" in their IT infrastructure and positioning themselves, it looks like they see the same thing.
I'll take a bet with you shmoes, If by june-july the GDP is still shrinking and corporate results are still declining, I'll go on a diet until my gay abs show up...
Even now you still don't fucking get it. This is not a downturn. Every major bank is insolvent - This CANNOT be fixed, there is no amount of money the government can create or borrow to fix these banks.
They paid for AAA paper, that is worthless. Why do you think Paulson started spending it on stock instead of buying the bad assets? Because the problem is in the tens, possibly hundreds of trillions!!
Do you do any investing in the private sector? Venture Capital? PPM's? or do you just buy public traded stock like the rest of the sheep?
I saw all of my friends get WIPED OUT well over a year ago in the private capital market, which is why I took this thread seriously from the beginning. I was already experiencing Great financial Pain.
And as for your bet - forget it. You are a schmoe with ZERO credibility, your word is as worthless as bank stock, so go try to leverage your empty promises elsewhere - or go run for public office. Hope this helps ;)
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Even now you still don't fucking get it. This is not a downturn. Every major bank is insolvent - This CANNOT be fixed, there is no amount of money the government can create or borrow to fix these banks.
They paid for AAA paper, that is worthless. Why do you think Paulson started spending it on stock instead of buying the bad assets? Because the problem is in the tens, possibly hundreds of trillions!!
Do you do any investing in the private sector? Venture Capital? PPM's? or do you just buy public traded stock like the rest of the sheep?
I saw all of my friends get WIPED OUT well over a year ago in the private capital market, which is why I took this thread seriously from the beginning. I was already experiencing Great financial Pain.
And as for your bet - forget it. You are a schmoe with ZERO credibility, your word is as worthless as bank stock, so go try to leverage your empty promises elsewhere - or go run for public office. Hope this helps ;)
I was also suprised to see Alex23 posting this as a "Downturn" that hit bottom. Itr okay to be positive, but hes listening to some people who dont know shit about whats going on. ( The radio ads are coming on and announcing real estate as a good buy......we,ve been hearing that shit for a year......and the ads are paid for by the realtors association!!! )
I just laugh my ass off when people think, "Hey homes have dropped 30%, that must be a bottom!!" Good gawd, millions more homes will reset and jobs are being lost at 600,000 a week...... This cannot even begin to bottom out till 4th quarter of this year, and even then a fix it may not raise it again. Ill buy homes in 2010 if ever again.
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My GF has been busting my balls about buying a home for the last year or two. I told her no then and I tell her no. She was upset with me, but who is laughing now???
I tell her - I TOLD YOU SO all the time re: home prices.
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My GF has been busting my balls about buying a home for the last year or two. I told her no then and I tell her no. She was upset with me, but who is laughing now???
I tell her - I TOLD YOU SO all the time re: home prices.
Now get off your ass and go buy a repo house at a bargain price for your girl and tell her, "Here's your house. Enjoy. Be careful of the crack house down the block and the addicts who are squatting in the house next door." ;D
I bought a house last August to get my son into a better high school and still haven't been able to sell my old house. I have renters in right now, at least, but would really love to get rid of the house. I worry that it will be years before I can get what I need to break even on it.
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Now get off your ass and go buy a repo house at a bargain price for your girl and tell her, "Here's your house. Enjoy. Be careful of the crack house down the block and the addicts who are squatting in the house next door." ;D
I bought a house last August to get my son into a better high school and still haven't been able to sell my old house. I have renters in right now, at least, but would really love to get rid of the house. I worry that it will be years before I can get what I need to break even on it.
It will take years.
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back in Nov 2007 (Dow 14k/ Bush President) i predicted the stock market would crash, which not doubt has occurred. my focus now is not calling for the end of the world, but to locate a market bottom as the masses panic.
NT
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S&P continues to stay ABOVE the Nov 21 2008 low of 741.(Bush low) market has recently tested said level and moved higher. (765)
with the market severely oversold i continue to anticipate holding 741 with an attendant short cover/bear market rally.
long term opinion remains unchanged.
NT
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do you mind if I post these in your thread??
he has good pov. they'll get lost if I make separate threads. since he makes them everyday if they are good I'll post them here. just tell me if you mind
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do you mind if I post these in your thread??
he has good pov. they'll get lost if I make separate threads. since he makes them everyday if they are good I'll post them here. just tell me if you mind
My cousins friends uncle informed me this guy is CIA. It's all smoke and mirrors. Don't be fooled.
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My cousins friends uncle informed me this guy is CIA. It's all smoke and mirrors. Don't be fooled.
CIA HHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHA HHAHAHAHHAHAHHAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
::)
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Good news for UK banks today ;D
LON:LLOY - I got these low, growth of 20% :o
LON:RBS - These too, but should have got more volume; growth of 75%!!!
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My cousins friends uncle informed me this guy is CIA. It's all smoke and mirrors. Don't be fooled.
could be never know :D
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todays
links are on youtube page
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S&P continues to stay ABOVE the Nov 21 2008 low of 741.(Bush low) market has recently tested said level and moved higher. (765)
with the market severely oversold i continue to anticipate holding 741 with an attendant short cover/bear market rally.
long term opinion remains unchanged.
market weakness continues unabated, any strength being sold off by days end. intraday short cover rallies quickly become exhausted, reflecting high negative market sentiment.
again, S&P must hold 741 (key support) if not, the Dow breaching 7,000 is a high probability IMO.
NT
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6900's here we come.
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short one
GE - Warren Buffet ---??
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He says "why would Buffet be propping up GS - other than the fact that he's making a lot of money"
This guy is a fucking idiot... So now making money on a slam dunk deal is a conspiracy?
Total Douschebag.
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He says "why would Buffet be propping up GS - other than the fact that he's making a lot of money"
This guy is a fucking idiot... So now making money on a slam dunk deal is a conspiracy?
What I was thinking as well. Buffet got a sweetheart of a deal with GS. Basically it was the use of his name as an investor for a guaranteed profit.
Not impressed with the guy based on that video.
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:)
http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php?PHPSESSID=b705178d0ea28c57b4e2c1c7740948e6&topic=39950.0 (http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php?PHPSESSID=b705178d0ea28c57b4e2c1c7740948e6&topic=39950.0)
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:)
http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php?PHPSESSID=b705178d0ea28c57b4e2c1c7740948e6&topic=39950.0 (http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php?PHPSESSID=b705178d0ea28c57b4e2c1c7740948e6&topic=39950.0)
Thanks, but no thanks. I am not interested in reading the those interested in personal character assassination of Warren Buffet. I am a student of finance and security analysis, in that regard Buffet is a genius. He's helped me make money. If it doesn't have to do with investing, it is superfluous bullshit.
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6900's here we come.
Won't be surprised to see this happen Monday morning.
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Yeah, Bad week coming....... A few more months and we'll have a dollar collapse and a market freeze on wall street. :-\
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Scary drops in foreign markets this morning. Get ready for a crazy ride when markets open here.
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Dow ended DOW -299.64 -4.24% 6,763.29
Stocks tumbled Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 falling to 12-year lows after insurance company American International Group's huge quarterly loss added to worries about the financial sector and the economy.
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March 2, 2009, 2:44 pm
Stocks Finally Start Looking Affordable
By David Leonhardt
Updated at market close.
At long last, stocks are beginning to look cheap.
With today’s declines, the long-term price-earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor 500-stock index is down to about 12.3. Over the past century, this ratio has averaged about 16. So relative to corporate profits, the stock market now appears to be undervalued by about 30 percent.
For months now, we have been following the stock market’s decline here at Economix and arguing that the market was not as inexpensive as many others were arguing. Our case: Despite the enormous fall in stocks, the long-term p-e ratio — that is, the ratio based on the past 10 years of corporate earnings — was still roughly at its historical average.
But the declines over the last few weeks are starting to change the picture. I crunched some of the historical stock data kept by Robert Shiller, author of “Irrational Exuberance,” and it offers some reason for optimism. When the p-e has been between 12 and 13 over the last 125 years or so, stocks have doubled over the next decade, on average. (Adjusting for inflation, they have risen almost 50 percent.)
Over all, there is pretty direct correlation between the p-e ratio and future long-term returns. For example, when the ratio has been 15 to 20, stocks have risen only about 50 percent over the next decade. When the ratio has been above 25, stocks haven’t risen much at all.
So does this mean stocks are finished falling? No.
In the other two great bear markets of the past century, in the 1930s and the 1980s, the p-e ratio ultimately dropped to about 6 or 7. To get to that level now, the S&P 500 would have to drop below 400, from the current 701, and the Dow Jones industrial average would need to be below 4,000. So stocks may well continue to fall. They may even still fall a fair amount.
But long-term investors — and that describes most of us — should start to feel perfectly fine about buying stocks. Investors who bought in the late 1930s or late 1970s, when the p-e was also around 12, had a rough ride. But they did quite nicely if they held their stocks for a decade or more.
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Neurotoxin,
Would you suggest savings accounts based on bank trusts which deal mostly in stocks at this point?
I have a friend looking at putting $1200 monthly into a savings account tied directly to world stocks (from my research most holdings are in somewhat "safe" stock), he's adamant of going into the higher risked units (for higher potential growth [and loss]). What would you do?
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Well, somone is really pushing gold down.
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agreed. I'd rather play Craps.
bankruptcy and GM is still a strong possibility.
NT
GM, auditor express doubts over survival
March 5, 2009 General Motors Corp. shares fell as much as 17% in early trading Thursday, retreating as the automaker and its auditor stoked more doubts that the company can keep its assembly lines running amid a historic dearth of new-car buyers.
The shares moved down 31 cents to stand lately at $1.88
GM 1.88, -0.32, -14.5%) said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that bankruptcy was a possibility if its Viability Plan, as submitted to the Congress, didn't succeed.
NT ;)
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700 is now key support for the S&P. a significant breach could be disastrous.
NT
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700 is now key support for the S&P. a significant breach could be disastrous.
NT
Didn't we have a significant breach a few days ago? What number were you thinking?
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GM, auditor express doubts over survival
March 5, 2009 General Motors Corp. shares fell as much as 17% in early trading Thursday, retreating as the automaker and its auditor stoked more doubts that the company can keep its assembly lines running amid a historic dearth of new-car buyers.
The shares moved down 31 cents to stand lately at $1.88
GM 1.88, -0.32, -14.5%) said in a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that bankruptcy was a possibility if its Viability Plan, as submitted to the Congress, didn't succeed.
NT ;)
So when do the people get their money back?
We're fucked.
"As goes General Motors, so goes the USA."
"What's good for General Motors is good for the USA."
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Didn't we have a significant breach a few days ago? What number were you thinking?
741---->700--->660
to be continued.....
NT
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Neurotoxin,
Would you suggest savings accounts based on bank trusts which deal mostly in stocks at this point?
I have a friend looking at putting $1200 monthly into a savings account tied directly to world stocks (from my research most holdings are in somewhat "safe" stock), he's adamant of going into the higher risked units (for higher potential growth [and loss]). What would you do?
IMO no.
NT
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March 4 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the fund it uses to protect customer deposits at U.S. banks could dry up amid a surge in bank failures, as she responded to an industry outcry against new fees approved by the agency.
“Without these assessments, the deposit insurance fund could become insolvent this year,” Bair wrote in a March 2 letter to the industry. U.S. community banks plan to flood the FDIC with about 5,000 letters in protest of the fees, according to a trade group.
“A large number” of bank failures may occur through 2010 because of “rapidly deteriorating economic conditions,” Bair said in the letter. “Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative.”
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stashing aside adequate cash "in case of an emergency" might be in order.
NT
March 4 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said the fund it uses to protect customer deposits at U.S. banks could dry up amid a surge in bank failures, as she responded to an industry outcry against new fees approved by the agency.
“Without these assessments, the deposit insurance fund could become insolvent this year,” Bair wrote in a March 2 letter to the industry. U.S. community banks plan to flood the FDIC with about 5,000 letters in protest of the fees, according to a trade group.
“A large number” of bank failures may occur through 2010 because of “rapidly deteriorating economic conditions,” Bair said in the letter. “Without substantial amounts of additional assessment revenue in the near future, current projections indicate that the fund balance will approach zero or even become negative.”
All while ZERO is giving 900 million to Hamas. Nice.
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no surprise to GBers following along...the bleedout continues unabated.
S&P finally breached the 700 level, closing @ 682. as we continue lower, i look for 660 to act as our next "support" level.
long term opinion remains unchanged.
NT
US Stocks Close At 12-Year Lows; Citi At $1.02
March 5, 2009
NEW YORK U.S. stock indexes fell to their lowest levels in more than 12 years as one of the world's most prominent banks and an icon of American manufacturing traded as penny stocks.
Not even after five consecutive declines did traders want to own stocks overnight, said Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading.
"Nobody wants to get in the way as the freight train comes down the embankment," he said.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 281.40 points, or 4.09%, to 6594.44, its lowest close since April 1997. The Nasdaq Composite fell 54.15, or 4.00%, to 1299.59. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 30.32, or 4.25%, to 682.55, 56% below its bull-market peak in October 2007. That's the biggest drop for the market since the 1930s.
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U.S. February Job Losses May Have Been Largest in Six Decades
March 6 The U.S. economy probably lost more jobs in February than at any time since 1949, a plunge that may force further reductions in spending and send more Americans into bankruptcy, economists said before a report today.
Employers cut payrolls by 650,000 and the unemployment rate probably surged to a 25-year high of 7.9 percent, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of the Labor Department figures.
NT
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General Motors asks for new multibillion dollar loan to avert crash in 30 days.
Friday 6 March 2009
General Motors yesterday warned it would go bust within 30 days unless the US treasury swiftly gives it a further multibillion-dollar loan. The dramatic warning from America's biggest car group came after its auditors, Deloitte & Touche, raised substantial doubts about its ability to continue as a "going concern".
NT
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Payrolls sink 651,000, jobless rate soars to 8.1%
March 6, 2009 The weakness in U.S. labor markets has gathered extraordinary momentum, wiping away more than 2.5 million jobs over the past four months alone, the Labor Department reported Friday.
The U.S. economy lost 651,000 jobs in February, the fourth month in a row where job losses were near or above 600,000.
The unemployment rate soared to 8.1%, the highest rate in over 25 years.
Job losses in February were close to expectations. But the government also revised job losses in the past two months down by 161,000 jobs.
Job losses in December, now pegged at 681,000, was the biggest monthly decline in jobs since 1949.
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Payrolls sink 651,000, jobless rate soars to 8.1%
March 6, 2009 The weakness in U.S. labor markets has gathered extraordinary momentum, wiping away more than 2.5 million jobs over the past four months alone, the Labor Department reported Friday.
The U.S. economy lost 651,000 jobs in February, the fourth month in a row where job losses were near or above 600,000.
The unemployment rate soared to 8.1%, the highest rate in over 25 years.
Job losses in February were close to expectations. But the government also revised job losses in the past two months down by 161,000 jobs.
Job losses in December, now pegged at 681,000, was the biggest monthly decline in jobs since 1949.
Do you think Celente, Rogers, Schiff, and Roubini are correct on where we are going?
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Do you think Celente, Rogers, Schiff, and Roubini are correct on where we are going?
yes, for the most part.
NT
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yes, for the most part.
NT
Great. Glad I just got a G26 and AK.
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General Motors asks for new multibillion dollar loan to avert crash in 30 days.
Friday 6 March 2009
General Motors yesterday warned it would go bust within 30 days unless the US treasury swiftly gives it a further multibillion-dollar loan. The dramatic warning from America's biggest car group came after its auditors, Deloitte & Touche, raised substantial doubts about its ability to continue as a "going concern".
NT
hahahahahahah
aw man, actually...I don't know if this is laughable or really really sad.
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Payrolls sink 651,000, jobless rate soars to 8.1%
March 6, 2009 The weakness in U.S. labor markets has gathered extraordinary momentum, wiping away more than 2.5 million jobs over the past four months alone, the Labor Department reported Friday.
The U.S. economy lost 651,000 jobs in February, the fourth month in a row where job losses were near or above 600,000.
The unemployment rate soared to 8.1%, the highest rate in over 25 years.
Job losses in February were close to expectations. But the government also revised job losses in the past two months down by 161,000 jobs.
Job losses in December, now pegged at 681,000, was the biggest monthly decline in jobs since 1949.
I'll take shadowstats numbers over anyone elses = 19%.
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I'll take shadowstats numbers over anyone elses = 19%.
19% is an accurate number.
NT
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seeing Dow 4,000-5,000 is a high probability IMO.
NT
If it dips below 6000, whats to stop it from totally nosediving? Seems like it's been a very slippery slope the last few weeks.
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If it dips below 6000, whats to stop it from totally nosediving? Seems like it's been a very slippery slope the last few weeks.
breaking 6,000 ensures a test of 5,000 IMO.
NT
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i could be wrong but current market dynamics/action resemble that of a coming depression....not a lingering recession.
time will tell...
NT
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i could be wrong but current market dynamics/action resemble that of a coming depression....not a lingering recession.
time will tell...
NT
agree. This is totally fucked up and meanwhile on CNN the have jerk off fests about Columbus getting a stimulas check to improve unemployment by hiring 25 more police officers. That sure makes me feel better.
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BTW, for those who exited the market early, you'll be able to purchase equities at once in a lifetime firesale prices !
be patient....the time will come.
NT
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S&P finally breached the 700 level, closing @ 682. as we continue lower, i look for 660 to act as our next "support" level.
as expected we bounced off the 660 support area and "rallied" into the close. S&P closed @ 683. Dow was up 32 points.
with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a Bear Market rally in the very near future.
NT
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Just spent 10Gs on C.
Fuck it.
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with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a short cover/bear market rally in the very near future.
Stocks Post Best Rally of 2009 on Improving Citigroup Outlook
March 10 Stocks around the world staged the biggest rally of the year after Citigroup Inc. said it was having its best quarter since 2007, spurring speculation the worst of the banking crisis is over. Treasuries and gold fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 379 points.
NT
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Stocks Post Best Rally of 2009 on Improving Citigroup Outlook
spurring speculation the worst of the banking crisis is over.
NT
Hardly.
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Hardly.
Wrong.
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Good thread NT. Keep it coming. I know home prices still have to reset to actual wages, but i thought we may have seen a low on the DOW. I cant imagine it lower than 6000 but i guess it may happen still......... :-\
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with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a short cover/bear market rally in the very near future.
Stocks Post Best Rally of 2009 on Improving Citigroup Outlook
March 10 Stocks around the world staged the biggest rally of the year after Citigroup Inc. said it was having its best quarter since 2007, spurring speculation the worst of the banking crisis is over. Treasuries and gold fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 379 points.
US Stocks Rise For Third Straight Day; Dow Up 240
March 12, 2009
NEW YORK U.S. stocks rose for the third straight day Thursday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point added more than 250 points as comments from Bank of America's chief executive and gains in General Electric helped prop up the market.
The blue-chip index jumped 239.66 points, or 3.5%, to 7170.06, marking its first three-day advancing streak since the three days that ended Jan. 28. The index has gained 9.5% in last three sessions, its best three-day performance on a percentage basis since Nov. 25.
NT
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Neuro Shlong, the current situation reminds me a lot of summer 2003. Are going to see a similar multi quarter rally or is this just a tease market?
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Neuro Shlong, the current situation reminds me a lot of summer 2003. Are going to see a similar multi quarter rally or is this just a tease market?
The current situation reminds you of summer 2003? lol...
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The current situation reminds you of summer 2003? lol...
Go look at the charts. Remember the rally of summer 2003.
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Go look at the charts. Remember the rally of summer 2003.
What did you mean by the current situation? I thought you were talking about everything the economy/market is facing right now. I guess you're just talking about chart patterns then?
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Freddie Mac wants $30.8 billion more
Record jobless number
Buffett's Berkshire loses 'perfect' rating
GE loses perfect rating
China worried about safety of U.S. debt
More stimulus needed? Possibly
Fudged numbers
Dow should be at 10,000 by 2 pm today.
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Dow should be at 10,000 by 2 pm today.
good call :)
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Freddie Mac wants $30.8 billion more
Record jobless number
Buffett's Berkshire loses 'perfect' rating
GE loses perfect rating
China worried about safety of U.S. debt
More stimulus needed? Possibly
Fudged numbers
Dow should be at 10,000 by 2020.
fixed
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
[ADDED BY HUGO CHAVEZ: this thread is being strickly moderated. Post whatever you want but do so in a constructive fashion. All ownage or non constructive type posts are subject to removal, if you have an issue with this take it up with Ron in complaints]
Great call NT, great vision..
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Freddie Mac wants $30.8 billion more
Record jobless number
Buffett's Berkshire loses 'perfect' rating
GE loses perfect rating
China worried about safety of U.S. debt
More stimulus needed? Possibly
Fudged numbers
Dow should be at 10,000 before Memorial Day 2010.
fixed
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fixed
Correct.
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Dream on boys.
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Dream on boys.
You're one of those negative bear laggers... you will miss the boat. Wait; you already did :-*
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You're one of those negative bear laggers... you will miss the boat. Wait; you already did :-*
yep, gotta love these types
I'd sigh as I tried to educate them, only to watch them consistently panic and take their money out of the market towards the bottom. Of course they jump back in after the institutional investors reaped tremendous profits and the best bargains are long gone. I've been in this game a long time (although I'm not as old as Neuro :D).
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and the best bargains are long gone.
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I don't why I am being quoted, since the response makes ZERO sense relative to what I wrote.
What is your experience in financial services and wealth management, BD? As a financial professional of many years, I'd sincerely like your perspective on matters. No one has a crystal ball. However, instead of making contrarian posts to everything I write, how about adding some substance to your opinions by telling us why the markets won't recover. Are you predicting the demise of capitalism as an economic system, and the downfall of the U.S.? ::)
What is your background that allows you to make such long term pessimistic assumptions? Please tell me it isn't simply that every one of my posts leave you butt hurt as you follow me around when I post on this board. Obviously you hate Obama and I get in your head consistently, but that should not prohibit you from trying to make money. :-\
When irrational fear is removed, there are excellent equity valuations to be had. An ongoing shift to normalcy suggests that now is an excellent time to buy stocks in general and cheap stocks in particular. That is, unless you are over the age of saay, 55. You need to have the knowledge of how to evaluate companies. Many currently have single-digit price/earnings ratios, healthy dividend yields and strong balance sheets. This should be the starting point in research for the serious investor.
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Enjoy this manipulated up time period in the Dow. They are just pulling suckers into the market who believe a recovery is in the works. We may see as high as 8000. Please read between the lines though. The Dow will crash to below 5000 before the year is out.
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Enjoy this manipulated up time period in the Dow. They are just pulling suckers into the market who believe a recovery is in the works. We may see as high as 8000. Please read between the lines though. The Dow will crash to below 5000 before the year is out.
Bingo.
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I don't why I am being quoted, since the response makes ZERO sense relative to what I wrote.
What is your experience in financial services and wealth management, BD? As a financial professional of many years, I'd sincerely like your perspective on matters. No one has a crystal ball. However, instead of making contrarian posts to everything I write, how about adding some substance to your opinions by telling us why the markets won't recover. Are you predicting the demise of capitalism as an economic system, and the downfall of the U.S.? ::)
What is your background that allows you to make such long term pessimistic assumptions? Please tell me it isn't simply that every one of my posts leave you butt hurt as you follow me around when I post on this board. Obviously you hate Obama and I get in your head consistently, but that should not prohibit you from trying to make money. :-\
When irrational fear is removed, there are excellent equity valuations to be had. An ongoing shift to normalcy suggests that now is an excellent time to buy stocks in general and cheap stocks in particular. That is, unless you are over the age of saay, 55. You need to have the knowledge of how to evaluate companies. Many currently have single-digit price/earnings ratios, healthy dividend yields and strong balance sheets. This should be the starting point in research for the serious investor.
hahahahaa You're in my head? I think it's the other way around as I never spend as much time or effort typing a long winded response such as yours to anyone on here. Maybe next time you can go for 6 paragraphs. ;) :-*
On a serious note, what do you think about the Fed's move earlier today in the long term scheme of things? How badly do you think the dollar will suffer from this move? How quickly and how much of this new reserve creation will make its way into the narrow money supply, in your opinion?
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:(
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Gold +68.90 +7.75% 958.00 :o :o :o
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Gold +68.90 +7.75% 958.00 :o :o :o
???
Gold + 15.20 958.00
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NT, do you think the dollar will be at 50 or 60 at some point this year?
Also, is your plane insured by AIG?
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???
Gold + 15.20 958.00
yesterday it shot up big time
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yesterday it shot up big time
Oh! Thanks
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NT, do you think the dollar will be at 50 or 60 at some point this year?
Also, is your plane insured by AIG?
The dollar is going to go through the floor thanks to the Fed.
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yep, gotta love these types
I'd sigh as I tried to educate them, only to watch them consistently panic and take their money out of the market towards the bottom. Of course they jump back in after the institutional investors reaped tremendous profits and the best bargains are long gone. I've been in this game a long time (although I'm not as old as Neuro :D).
are you saying that when your money is near the bottom you ride it out and wait utill it goes back up?
if so, why are you letting your money sit in a falling stock in the first place?
lol
epic first post acting like a stock expert
i just saw this thread 4 the first time.. read the first 15 pages or so... seems alex was pwned by neurotoxin back in november of 07 as far as predicting the events to come... im guessing neurotoxin works down in the stock market area thingie where all the dudes run around yelling
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Looks like tomarrow might be a brutal start, futures are down 72.
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are you saying that when your money is near the bottom you ride it out and wait utill it goes back up?
if so, why are you letting your money sit in a falling stock in the first place?
I am stating if you can read english is that a falling prices not based on fundamentals present tremendous buying opportunities. ::) If you want to wait until the DOW hits 12,000 and then develop the courage to invest in equities, be my guest. That is not how I watched clients in my firm lose money time and again over my thirteen years in this business. Sell during the downturn, park your money in investments barely beating inflation, and get killed in brokerage fees. Then buy back in after equities are much higher, and again have your broker take a nice cut for his services. ::) Hey, as a former broker this type of churning of stock is great for my bank account, but not intelligent investing.
What I'm also saying son that as a PROFESSIONAL I have certain barometers in place that I utilize to take in profits during in a bull market. However, like anyone else I take a hit when the market tanks, particularly when the sell off is not based on irrationality and not financial statements.
Most of you who are not professionals and are looking to save for retirement should be doing exactly that...letting your money sit in a falling stock market. You have a long-term time horizon and should not be concerned with a five year chart like the crap Bindare posted. You should be utilizing dollar cost averaging and playing index funds. This is for those who do not have the expertise to do a comprehensive financial analysis.
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EXPERT ADVICE: Top investing minds take on the downturn
But legendary stock-picker Peter Lynch thinks bargains are so plentiful now, "you feel like a mosquito in a nudist colony."
And Burton Malkiel, author of the classic investing book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," is sticking to his long-held belief in investing in index funds. That's because judging from history, what we're seeing now is "not anything terribly unusual," he says.
Two years into the financial crisis, our retirement savings have been halved. The unemployment rate is the highest it's been in a quarter-century. And around the globe, economies are suffering the sharpest downturns in decades.
BURTON MALKIEL, professor of economics at Princeton University and author of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."
We turn to some top investing minds for their take on the situation. Their words have been edited and condensed.
On the economy
This recession is being compared in its severity to the Great Depression, and I suppose in terms of how fast unemployment is going up and how worldwide it is, it probably bears some similarity to the Great Depression.
But I want to emphasize I don't think we're going into a Great Depression. For one thing, the money supply dropped by 25 percent during the Great Depression. Today, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is expanding dramatically.
And central banks around the world are doing the same thing with respect to fiscal policy. I think the Obama stimulus plan could be much better. I think it may even be too modest. But at any rate, it's a big stimulus plan. Relative to what we did in the Great Depression, this is real money.
On investing
What's going on now is not anything terribly unusual. There have been many, many periods in the past where the stock market has been absolutely terrible for a decade or more. Unless you think that all of the sudden, the whole U.S. economy is going to go into reverse and never going to return, I think the stock market will prove its worth again in the future.
Does that mean we're going to recover right now? Who knows. What we do know about the stock market is that, after very long periods of hibernation or decline, it typically produces quite generous returns. If you've got a 10- or 20-year horizon, this is probably a very good time to invest in stocks.
I'm an indexer. I'd buy a very broad total stock market fund. I think you ought to buy a total bond market fund that has safe Treasury bonds, and also corporate bonds which now have very generous spreads over Treasurys. I also think everybody should have a safe (cash) reserve for contingency. Money markets are a fine place to be.
PETER LYNCH, former manager of the flagship Magellan Fund at Fidelity Investments
On the economy
We've had 11 recessions since World War II and we've had a perfect score -- 11 recoveries. There are a lot of natural cushions in the economy now that weren't there in the 1930s. They keep things from getting out of control.
We have the Federal Deposit Insurance Co. (which insures bank deposits). We have social security. We have pensions. We have two-person, working families. We have unemployment payments. And we have a Federal Reserve with a brain.
On investing
I would not disagree that corporate bonds look attractive versus money markets. But I would think stocks are more attractive. But you have to have a time horizon further out than three weeks from Wednesday. Even one year, two years is not long enough. I'm very happy and content that five, 10, 15 years from now, corporate profits will be higher and the stock market will be a lot higher.
This dramatic decline in stock prices has affected great companies and good companies and mediocre companies. It's brought them all down. Bargains are all over the place. There are so many attractive stocks out there. But they keep going down. I've definitely been pounded. To use a golf analogy, I'd like to take a couple of mulligans.
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OCC Reports Fourth Quarter Bank Trading Loss
WASHINGTON — U.S. commercial banks reported a $9.2 billion trading loss for the fourth quarter of 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency reported today in the OCC's Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities. For 2008, banks reported an annual trading loss of $836 million, compared to trading revenues of $5.5 billion in 2007.
“While banks reported reasonably strong client demand and wide intermediation spreads in the fourth quarter, large write-downs on legacy credit positions continued to take a toll on trading results,” Deputy Comptroller for Credit and Market Risk Kathryn E. Dick said. “Trading results continue to reflect large changes in the fair values of derivatives receivables and payables, based upon market participants’ views of the credit quality of both banks and their counterparties.”
Ms. Dick noted that trading results suffered from an unfavorable combination of higher overall corporate credit spreads and lower bank credit spreads, each of which result in trading losses.
The report shows that the notional amount of derivatives held by insured U.S. commercial banks increased by $25 trillion (14 percent) in the fourth quarter to $200 trillion. The increase resulted from the migration of investment bank derivatives activity into the commercial banking system. Interest rate contracts increased $27 trillion to $164 trillion, while credit derivatives fell 2 percent to $16 trillion.
The OCC also reported that net current credit exposure, the primary metric the OCC uses to measure credit risk in derivatives activities, increased $364 billion, or 84 percent, during the quarter to $800 billion. “The sharp decline in interest rates continues to increase derivative exposures, both payables and receivables,” Ms. Dick said.
She also noted that, similar to the notional derivatives increase, migration of derivatives activity from investment banks into the commercial banking system accelerated the growth in credit exposure.
The report also noted that:
Derivatives contracts are concentrated in a small number of institutions. The largest five banks hold 96 percent of the total notional amount of derivatives, while the largest 25 banks hold nearly 100 percent.
Credit default swaps are the dominant product in the credit derivatives market, representing 98 percent of total credit derivatives.
The number of commercial banks holding derivatives increased by 33 in the quarter to 1,010.
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Also, is your plane insured by AIG?
no, its insured by AOPA.
NT
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the PPT is doing everything in their power to keep this market from falling back to S&P 665. continued weak economic data may be ignored thru April. (Obama's people have finally figured out how to manipulate the market.) (IMO)
a test of the March low by summers end should be anticipated.
NT
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the PPT is doing everything in their power to keep this market from falling back to S&P 665. continued weak economic data may be ignored thru April. (Obama's people have finally figured out how to manipulate the market.) (IMO)
a test of the March low by summers end should be anticipated.
NT
The conventional wisdom is that we have already tested the market bottom, Neuro. A sometimes painful and awkward process of recovery is showing signs of being permanent.
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The conventional wisdom is that we have already tested the market bottom, Neuro. A sometimes painful and awkward process of recovery is showing signs of being permanent.
I really don't know how you could say theres a sustainable recovery happening. Unemployment is at record highs. All the government numbers regarding manufacturing are always revised lower, durable goods always revised lower, mall owners going bankrupt, banks only profitable because of money being funneled to them through AIG, mortgage applications are 80% refinacing, car sales are at record lows, people have been saying we've tested bottom for longer than I can remember only to have the markets go back down, etc...
I just don't see where you get this optimism from at this point anyway.
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I really don't know how you could say theres a sustainable recovery happening. Unemployment is at record highs. All the government numbers regarding manufacturing are always revised lower, durable goods always revised lower, mall owners going bankrupt, banks only profitable because of money being funneled to them through AIG, mortgage applications are 80% refinacing, car sales are at record lows, people have been saying we've tested bottom for longer than I can remember only to have the markets go back down, etc...
I just don't see where you get this optimism from at this point anyway.
I'm talking market technicals my friend, not the gloom and doom you read in the paper/web each morning. Just sit back and learn. ;)
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The major equity indicies always begin their upswing prior to the most visible signs of a recession coming to an end.
Wall Street extends rally as economic hopes rise
Stocks rally as G-20 leaders meet, accounting rules ease, economic hopes rise
NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street is extending its rally as it grows more optimistic that the economy is on the mend.
The major indexes jumped more than 2 percent Thursday, and the Dow Jones industrials rose more than 200 points, as the world's finance leaders met in London to discuss efforts to fix the global economy. The G-20 ministers plan to give the International Monetary Fund $500 billion, and create stricter rules for hedge funds.
Bank stocks got an especially big boost when the Financial Accounting Standards Board relaxed rules forcing banks to value their assets at current prices. The change should help banks reduce losses.
And the Commerce Department revealed a large increase in February factory orders, following Wednesday's better-than-expected readings on pending home sales, manufacturing activity and auto sales.
There's a growing sense on Wall Street that the economy, at least stateside, might be bottoming out.
"The market mindset is: OK, we're not in a tailspin," said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.
Since a nearly 12-year low on March 9, the Dow is up about 19 percent.
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What reports are coming out tomarrow?
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Banks get an accounting boost
Rulesmakers set to ease rules on fair value accounting just in time for this month's first-quarter profit reports.
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Rules makers appeared ready to adopt guidelines Thursday that give financial firms more latitude in applying so-called mark-to-market accounting, just in time for what is shaping up as another tough earnings season.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private sector body that sets U.S. bookkeeping rules, was set to hold a formal vote Thursday to approve a measure that will allow firms to not write down the value of their assets based on so-called distressed sales of similar assets by other banks.
Isn't this all just smoke and mirrors?
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Banks get an accounting boost
Rulesmakers set to ease rules on fair value accounting just in time for this month's first-quarter profit reports.
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Rules makers appeared ready to adopt guidelines Thursday that give financial firms more latitude in applying so-called mark-to-market accounting, just in time for what is shaping up as another tough earnings season.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private sector body that sets U.S. bookkeeping rules, was set to hold a formal vote Thursday to approve a measure that will allow firms to not write down the value of their assets based on so-called distressed sales of similar assets by other banks.
Isn't this all just smoke and mirrors?
Its called "Mark to Market" and in a way it is because the companies will not have to mark down their assets immediately as was required under the present rules.
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Banks get an accounting boost
Rulesmakers set to ease rules on fair value accounting just in time for this month's first-quarter profit reports.
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Rules makers appeared ready to adopt guidelines Thursday that give financial firms more latitude in applying so-called mark-to-market accounting, just in time for what is shaping up as another tough earnings season.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private sector body that sets U.S. bookkeeping rules, was set to hold a formal vote Thursday to approve a measure that will allow firms to not write down the value of their assets based on so-called distressed sales of similar assets by other banks.
Isn't this all just smoke and mirrors?
this allows financial institutions to better hide worthless toxic assets. ;)
NT
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The new rules give banks more judgment in deciding how to value assets when the market for those assets is not functioning. The move may boost banks' financial position because they have had to take heavy write-downs, or losses, by marking assets to market over the past year.
But some critics of the changes warn that any help to banks' balance sheets will be temporary and in reality prolong the slump.
"The capital markets will remain closed to major banks and other financial intermediaries for an extended period of time," the investor advisory organization CFA Institute said this week about the proposed changes to fair value accounting. "Investors will not be willing to commit capital to firms that hide the economic value of their assets and liabilities."
NT
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The new rules give banks more judgment in deciding how to value assets when the market for those assets is not functioning. The move may boost banks' financial position because they have had to take heavy write-downs, or losses, by marking assets to market over the past year.
But some critics of the changes warn that any help to banks' balance sheets will be temporary and in reality prolong the slump.
"The capital markets will remain closed to major banks and other financial intermediaries for an extended period of time," the investor advisory organization CFA Institute said this week about the proposed changes to fair value accounting. "Investors will not be willing to commit capital to firms that hide the economic value of their assets and liabilities."
NT
I personally have held off buying a new home for a few years now based on this nonsense. My personal belief is that homes have at least another 30% - 40% on the downside in order to come into the traditional 2x yearly income standard for average prices.
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The conventional wisdom is that we have already tested the market bottom, Neuro. A sometimes painful and awkward process of recovery is showing signs of being permanent.
Yes, the conventional wisdom @ Dow 14,200 was Dow 15,000, 16,000,17,000....
I expect this market pull back over the summer, possibly testing the March lows then turn Bullish heading into 2010.
I could be wrong...
NT
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Historically April is a strong month, so further movement to the upside is possible.....before failing over the summer.
NT
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before failing over the summer.
NT
Historically, the summers following the break out of the last couple of bear markets have been moving to the upside. Now if we're still full blown into a bear, then this stops making sense but I think we're coming out...
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Historically, the summers following the break out of the last couple of bear markets have been moving to the upside. Now if we're still full blown into a bear, then this stops making sense but I think we're coming out...
keep a close eye on the banking index.
NT
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bankruptcy and GM is still a strong possibility.
NT
NEW YORK/DETROIT April 7 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp is in "intense" and "earnest" preparations for a possible bankruptcy filing, a source familiar with the company's plans told Reuters Tuesday.
GM bondholders are likely to lose substantial value in bankruptcy.
NT
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keep a close eye on the banking index. ;)
NT
fuck, I need to work on my written english... I type stupid fast and the result shows....
I appologize; I'm actually quite smart but sound better in person ;D (click "spell check")
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Source: Bank 'stress test' results delayed
Treasury will wait until after first-quarter earnings season to release results in order to soften impact on stocks.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The U.S. Treasury Department is planning to delay the release of any completed bank "stress test" results until after the first-quarter earnings season to avoid complicating stock market reaction, a source familiar with Treasury's discussions said Tuesday.
The Treasury is still talking about how results of the regulatory stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks will be released, and may disclose them as summary results that are not institution-specific, the source said.
The government is testing how the largest banks would fare under more adverse economic conditions than are expected in an attempt to assess the firms' capital needs. The tests are due to be completed by the end of April, but Treasury has said they may be finished before then.
The source, speaking anonymously because the Treasury has not made a final decision on what to disclose, said officials do not want any test results released before the earnings season wraps up for most U.S. banks on April 24.
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Source: Bank 'stress test' results delayed
Treasury will wait until after first-quarter earnings season to release results in order to soften impact on stocks.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The U.S. Treasury Department is planning to delay the release of any completed bank "stress test" results until after the first-quarter earnings season to avoid complicating stock market reaction, a source familiar with Treasury's discussions said Tuesday.
The Treasury is still talking about how results of the regulatory stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks will be released, and may disclose them as summary results that are not institution-specific, the source said.
The government is testing how the largest banks would fare under more adverse economic conditions than are expected in an attempt to assess the firms' capital needs. The tests are due to be completed by the end of April, but Treasury has said they may be finished before then.
The source, speaking anonymously because the Treasury has not made a final decision on what to disclose, said officials do not want any test results released before the earnings season wraps up for most U.S. banks on April 24.
If the results were good, they would have released the info asap.
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If the results were good, they would have released the info asap.
It's "complicated". :)
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the PPT's job/game (now) is holding S&P above 800. if we happen to breach 800 (not likely in April) check out my former posts for previous support levels.
NT
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More info:
WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) -
Treasury did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
U.S. regulators have reached the closing phase of the stress tests, with many of the top banks having already turned in their internal versions of the test to officials. Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis said last Thursday that his bank has already completed its test.
Bank regulators are at the stage of reconciling their own versions of the results with the banks' internal assessments.
Officials realize it may be hard to keep the results under wraps, and they are looking for ways the banks could disclose some details without unduly disturbing the markets. They are also looking at providing some summary information about how the banks fared.
"There will be definitely be some information that will be provided at the end of it, but exactly what that will be, and when it will be provided, will come forth later," Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, who supervises some of the nation's largest banks, said last week.
The stress tests at the biggest banks are part of a wide-ranging effort to restore stability to a sector hit by huge mortgage-related losses.
The tests are designed to determine the depth of banks' capital holes if conditions deteriorate further. After the tests are completed, the banks will have six months to either raise private capital to compensate, or accept government funds.
But officials are worried about how the market will react to the stress test results if there is not a clear recovery path for a bank that is deemed to have a large capital need.
The last thing Treasury wants to do is set off a panic, the source said.
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So Wells comes out this morning and says they're going to make a "record" profit, claiming an expected 55 cents (.vs. mid 30s expectation)
It must be nice to be able to keep loans on the books at whatever price you feel like, receive billions of taxpayer money including "assistance" in rolling up Wachovia, and then turn out to not need it, right?
That is, if these numbers are accurate.
Wells premarket is ramping from $14.89 at the close yesterday and now trading premarket at $18.10, up over $3 or some 30%.
This leads one inescapably to the following:
Either Wells is lying (obfuscating losses through unrealistic marks, etc) OR
These "bailouts" were no such thing - they were a simple and transparent looting operation by the banks that is now showing up directly in "earnings" (and will shortly show up in the bonuses of executives too!)
So which is it folks?
Are the banks really that healthy? Because if they are, you've been robbed to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars per person in this country, and it is long past the time that you act to stop it.
If they aren't, then how is it that these banking executives are not residing in the graybar motel for cooking their books? Again, it is long past the time that you, the citizens of this country, act to stop it.
And while we're at it, perhaps you'd like to tally up the income you're NOT making on savings (CDs, etc) through the much lower rates of interest you're being PAID so that these guys can post "record earnings"? Naw, we don't want to hold The Fed accountable for their monetary policy - a backdoor way of looting the public even further - do we?
PS: AIG's former CEO Greenberg is on CNBC this morning and he actually used the word "LOOTING" and insisted that the government must claw back the payments that were made as a "passthrough" - exactly as I and others have called for.
While I object to the characterization that Hank Greenberg was "blameless" in AIG's morass, it is nonetheless refreshing to hear people like him talking about what we should and indeed must do - that is, claw back the inappropriate and arguably illegal "pass through" payments that in my opinion are nothing more than pure robbery of the taxpayers of this country.
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Historically April is a strong month, so further movement to the upside is possible.....before failing over the summer.
NT
as expected April was another strong month despite horrible economic news. the recent Bear Market rally (see my March 7th post) was accompanied by low volume and massive manipulation. (IMO) a test of the March low should be expected over the next 2-3 months.
NT
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as expected April was another strong month despite horrible economic news. the recent Bear Market rally (see my March 7th post) was accompanied by low volume and massive manipulation.[/b] (IMO) a test of the March low should be expected over the next 2-3 months.
NT
That's for sure. Make the expectations so low that even the lamest "good news" sends the markets up. The information coming out is so slanted after analyzing it closer it really means nothing.
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That's for sure. Make the expectations so low that even the lamest "good news" sends the markets up. The information coming out is so slanted after analyzing it closer it really means nothing.
the recent Bear Market Rally was fueled by the Fed/PPT buying the financial/banking sector. ;) this ALWAYS pushes the Market higher, and was necessary ahead of the negative results w/ the bank stress tests. (to be released Thurs.)
NT
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the recent Bear Market Rally was fueled by the Fed/PPT buying the financial/banking sector. ;) this ALWAYS pushes the Market higher, and was necessary ahead of the negative results w/ the bank stress tests. (to be released Thurs.)
NT
What do you think about Celente's predictions on Commercial R/E being bigger than subprime?
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the recent Bear Market Rally was fueled by the Fed/PPT buying the financial/banking sector. ;) this ALWAYS pushes the Market higher, and was necessary ahead of the negative results w/ the bank stress tests. (to be released Thurs.)
NT
I was about to add the stress test bullshit but I'm too busy making breakfast and getting ready for work. :( ;D
Sent you as PM.
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What do you think about Celente's predictions on Commercial R/E being bigger than subprime?
good point. it's a huge problem looking forward, but i'm not convinced it will undermine the overall market when it finally rears its ugly head.
NT
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The dollar may not be king much longer.....
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if i remember correctly Alex23 encouraged others to buy GM stock. ;D
shares which closed at $1.85 would be worth a little over 1 cent.
NT
BWHAHAHAHA
Alex probably drove his pink Hummer off the side of a cliff, he hasn't been heard from for a while.
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guys, now is the time to be very careful. since March we have experienced a nice Bear Market Rally.( on low volume) a downside correction from here is likely.
NT
Thanks. Your posts always seem to be very timely.
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guys, now is the time to be very careful. since March we have experienced a nice Bear Market Rally.( on low volume) a downside correction from here is likely.
NT
U.S. Stocks Retreat From Four-Month High on Earnings Valuations
May 11 -- U.S. stocks fell from a four-month high after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index traded at the most expensive level in seven months and banks said they would sell more shares.
Capital One Financial Corp., U.S. Bancorp and BB&T Corp. tumbled at least 6 percent on plans to sell shares to repay government bailout funds. American Express Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. slid more than 6 percent following a 23 percent surge in a measure of financial stocks last week. General Motors Corp. dropped 11 percent after saying bankruptcy is more probable than previously thought.
The S&P 500 lost 1.6 percent to 914.4 after advancing for eight out of the past nine weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 155.85 points, or 1.4 percent, to 8,418.8. Three stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest sell-off in three weeks. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 1.4 percent.
“The market has gone too far, too fast,” Douglas Cliggott, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based manager of the $81 million Dover Long/Short Sector Fund, which beat 97 percent of its peers last year, told Bloomberg Radio. “There is a risk that the market will give quite a bit of the move back.”
NT
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U.S. Stocks Retreat From Four-Month High on Earnings Valuations
May 11 -- U.S. stocks fell from a four-month high after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index traded at the most expensive level in seven months and banks said they would sell more shares.
Capital One Financial Corp., U.S. Bancorp and BB&T Corp. tumbled at least 6 percent on plans to sell shares to repay government bailout funds. American Express Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. slid more than 6 percent following a 23 percent surge in a measure of financial stocks last week. General Motors Corp. dropped 11 percent after saying bankruptcy is more probable than previously thought.
The S&P 500 lost 1.6 percent to 914.4 after advancing for eight out of the past nine weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 155.85 points, or 1.4 percent, to 8,418.8. Three stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest sell-off in three weeks. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 1.4 percent.
“The market has gone too far, too fast,” Douglas Cliggott, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based manager of the $81 million Dover Long/Short Sector Fund, which beat 97 percent of its peers last year, told Bloomberg Radio. “There is a risk that the market will give quite a bit of the move back.”
NT
So where do you see this going?
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So where do you see this going?
a successful test of March lows (over the summer) presents the best long term Bullish scenario heading into 2010. (IMO)
NT
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a successful test of March lows (over the summer) presents the best long term Bullish scenario heading into 2010. (IMO)
NT
woo weeeeeeeeeeeeeee
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S&P 900>>>875>>>850
Gov. intervention is slowing up the process.(IMO)
NT
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900 is a key psychological support level. lots of game playing to prevent a breach.(IMO)
NT
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900 is a key psychological support level. lots of game playing to prevent a breach.(IMO)
NT
May 12, 2009,
US Stocks Higher; Pare Morning Declines As Staples Gain
U.S. stocks pared their morning declines and traded higher Tuesday afternoon on a bounce for large defensive companies, although General Motors' downward spiral continued.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slid 156 points Monday and traded in the red for much of the morning, recently gained 67 points, or 0.8%, to 8486. In addition, the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 0.3% at 912, and traded around the psychologically significant 900 level, helped by gains for consumer staples and health-care firms. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.6% to 1720.
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guys, now is the time to be very careful. since March we have experienced a nice Bear Market Rally.( on low volume) a downside correction from here is likely.
NT
Stocks fall on weak retail sales, foreclosure jump
Wall Street pulls back after weaker-than-expected retail sales report, jump in foreclosures
May 13, 2009, 4:07 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- After its dizzying climb, Wall Street is looking at the economy more skeptically.
Stocks retreated more than 2 percent and bond prices rose after two reports showed that the economy is not bouncing back as quickly as investors hoped.
The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.4 percent in April, while RealtyTrac Inc. reported a troubling rise in home foreclosures.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average is down 184 points, or 2.2 percent, at 8,284.89.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index is down 24.44, or 2.7 percent, at 883.91, while the Nasdaq composite index is down 51.73, or 3 percent, to 1,664.19.
NT
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900 is a key psychological support level. lots of game playing to prevent a breach.(IMO)
NT
finally breached the 900 mark today. 875 should act as tempor. institutional support.(IMO)
NT
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S&P 900>>>875>>>850
Gov. intervention is slowing up the process.(IMO)
NT
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Thanks.
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Thanks.
you're very welcome.
NT
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you're very welcome.
NT
Serious, I always look forward to your posts.
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Many of us do.
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finally breached the 900 mark today. 875 should act as tempor. institutional support.(IMO)
NT
as expected Market bounced off S&P 875 support on anemic volume.
NT
S&P 500 snaps loss streak; banks lead Dow-30
May 14 The S&P 500 ended higher for its first day in four Thursday, helped by a rise in financials and tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 46 points, or 0.6%, to 8,331.00. The Nasdaq Composite rose 25 points, or 1.5%, to 1,689. Volumes were light.
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guys, if you're debating whether to buy stocks now consider this: since mid April the NYSE's 500 largest corporate insiders have sold $8.32 worth of stock for every dollar bought.
NT
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What are your qualifications? I know there are several multi-millionaires on here but I never see any advice. ???
His qualifications are (being tuned to the right frequency level)
Here we are mid-05-09 = he was spot on - right on the money - hahahaha (scuse the pun).
PT ;)
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guys, if you're debating whether to buy stocks now consider this: since mid April the NYSE's 500 largest corporate insiders have sold $8.32 worth of stock for every dollar bought.
NT
NT, where do you get information like that?
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guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")
if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.
simultaneously, the dollar is dropping like a rock, (Obama deficit spending) moving Hedge Funds and the like into commodities such as Oil and Metals. (yes, speculators are back in Oil....watch pump prices.)
just my opinion.
NT
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guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")
if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.
simultaneously, the dollar is dropping like a rock, (Obama deficit spending) moving Hedge Funds and the like into commodities such as Oil and Metals. (yes, speculators are back in Oil....watch pump prices.)
just my opinion.
NT
Thanks Neuro. I read Bloomberg first thing every morning. They have good reporting and there seems ZERO connection with the news and market lately. It has been kind of strange.
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Thanks Neuro. I read Bloomberg first thing every morning. They have good reporting and there seems ZERO connection with the news and market lately. It has been kind of strange.
you're welcome 333386.
NT
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Neuro - check the story from bloomberg I just posted about bonds.
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Neuro - check the story from bloomberg I just posted about bonds.
no one is talking inflation right now but looking forward it's a HUGE issue. (mining / metal equities ascent reflect that opinion)
NT
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Stagflation. I wonder how bad it's gonna get?
Will gold pass the $1030 mark of last year? It'll be interesting to see.
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guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")
if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.
just my opinion.
NT
Bank Profits From Accounting Rules Masking Looming Loan Losses
June 5 Big banks in the U.S. say they’re on the mend. The five largest were profitable in the first quarter, rebounding from record losses for the industry in the fourth quarter. Share prices have jumped, with the KBW Bank Index doubling since March 6.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, after “stress testing” 19 banks on their ability to withstand a worsening economy, declared in early May that Americans can be confident in the banks’ stability and resilience. Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were among banks raising $43 billion in new capital since then through share sales.
The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.
The government probably wants to win time for the banks, keeping them alive as they struggle to earn their way out of the mess, says economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University in New York.
‘Bogus’ Profit
Citigroup’s $1.6 billion in first-quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent, says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida. “The big banks’ profits were totally bogus,” says Weiss, whose 38-year-old firm rates financial companies. “The new accounting rules, the stress tests: They’re all part of a major effort to put lipstick on a pig.”
Further deterioration of loans will eventually force banks to recognize losses that their bookkeeping lets them ignore for now, says David Sherman, an accounting professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago, says the government stress scenarios underestimate how bad the economy may get.
NT
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Bank Profits From Accounting Rules Masking Looming Loan Losses
June 5 Big banks in the U.S. say they’re on the mend. The five largest were profitable in the first quarter, rebounding from record losses for the industry in the fourth quarter. Share prices have jumped, with the KBW Bank Index doubling since March 6.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, after “stress testing” 19 banks on their ability to withstand a worsening economy, declared in early May that Americans can be confident in the banks’ stability and resilience. Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were among banks raising $43 billion in new capital since then through share sales.
The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.
The government probably wants to win time for the banks, keeping them alive as they struggle to earn their way out of the mess, says economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University in New York.
‘Bogus’ Profit
Citigroup’s $1.6 billion in first-quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent, says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida. “The big banks’ profits were totally bogus,” says Weiss, whose 38-year-old firm rates financial companies. “The new accounting rules, the stress tests: They’re all part of a major effort to put lipstick on a pig.”
Further deterioration of loans will eventually force banks to recognize losses that their bookkeeping lets them ignore for now, says David Sherman, an accounting professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago, says the government stress scenarios underestimate how bad the economy may get.
NT
Mark to market accounting definately is masking the losses in commercial RE right now.
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http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=284194.msg4021398#msg4021398
Neuro, Do you get some of your information from this guy?
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Mark to market accounting definately is masking the losses in commercial RE right now.
"Mark to Market" is hiding a lot. ;)
NT
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with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a bear market rally in the very near future.
NT
the Bear Market rally that began on March 10th is completely controlled by the Fed/Banks. (on anemic volume)
from a purely technical perspective... as long as the S@P continues to hold the 200dma, "the Bulls control center court."
NT
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the Bear Market rally that began on March 10th is completely controlled by the Fed/Banks. (on anemic volume)
from a purely technical perspective... as long as the S@P continues to hold the 200dma, "the Bulls control center court."
NT
Are you saying it is the Fed propping up the market and not investors?
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Are you saying it is the Fed propping up the market and not investors?
yes. (imo)
NT
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guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")
if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.
simultaneously, the dollar is dropping like a rock, (Obama deficit spending) moving Hedge Funds and the like into commodities such as Oil and Metals. (yes, speculators are back in Oil....watch pump prices.)
just my opinion.
NT
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Are you saying it is the Fed propping up the market and not investors?
let me explain why. 70% of our nations GDP is Consumer Spending. if the consumer see's the Market heading lower w/ his 401k, he pulls back MORE on spending. currently we're experiencing the highest consumer savings rate not seen in decades. from -1% to +5.7 %. (Gov. needs us spending... not saving.)
so, it is my opinion that certain banks assist the Fed in "propping" the Market to help avoid disaster. BTW, that's not always a bad thing.
NT
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let me explain why. 70% of our nations GDP is Consumer Spending. if the consumer see's the Market heading lower w/ his 401k, he pulls back MORE on spending. currently we're experiencing the highest consumer savings rate not seen in decades. from -1% to +5.7 %. (Gov. needs us spending... not saving.)
so, it is my opinion that certain banks assist the Fed in "propping" the Market to help avoid disaster. BTW, that's not always a bad thing.
NT
For me personally, I dont see it as a bad thing that people are saving money and not engaging in reckless consumer spending funded by credit cards. borrowing
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For me personally, I dont see it as a bad thing that people are saving money and not engaging in reckless consumer spending funded by credit cards. borrowing
i agree 100%. problem is a huge Gov. NEEDS revenue....and that comes from consumer spending, not saving. have you EVER heard a Gov. official advise the public to save more? not likely.
NT
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i agree 100%. problem is a huge Gov. NEEDS revenue....and that comes from consumer spending, not saving. have you EVER heard a Gov. official advise the public to save more? not likely.
NT
Its sad really that they prefer the bubble economy fueled by reckless personal borrowing on assets with phoney valuations.
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i expect a downside test to S&P 915
NT
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Its sad really that they prefer the bubble economy fueled by reckless personal borrowing on assets with phoney valuations.
333386, check out the article below. it comprehensively addresses why the US is now a bubble economy.
NT
The seeds of today’s crisis were first sown in 1971 when the US formally opened trade with China. In an effort to boost profits, large scale US manufacturers and other multinational firms began outsourcing their manufacturing jobs to the People’s Republic soon after.
When other industries realized the kind of money that can be saved by sending work overseas, they soon followed suit. Outsourcing moved up the corporate food chain until even R&D jobs and other high-level, high-skill set jobs were shifted to Asia. This, of course, diminished the number of these positions in the US. Thus began three major trends:
1) The US’s economic shift from manufacturing to services (mainly financial)
2) The massive drop in US incomes
3) The beginning of the debt bubble
Nothing illustrates the first point like the rise of the financials sector. From 1970 until 2003, financials’ market capitalizations as a percentage of the S&P 500 rose from less than 5% to 22%. Over the same period, financials’ earnings as a percentage of the S&P 500’s total earnings rose from less than 10% to 31%.
Put another way, by 2007 one in every three dollars of corporate profits came from the financial sector. Meanwhile, China was experiencing an unprecedented level of growth thanks to our renewed trade: Chinese per-capita income doubled from 1978 to 1987 and again from 1987 to 1996.
Now, fewer jobs in the US means lower US incomes. Going by the Federal government’s official (inaccurate) data, weekly US incomes peaked in October 1972 and have since fallen 15%. Of course, these numbers are based on official inflation data which is horribly under-stated. According to John Williams of www.shadowstats.com, if you were to go by actual inflationary data, US incomes have fallen more like 40% since 1972.
This fact stares us in the face everyday, though no one really notices it. In the early ‘70s, typically one parent worked and the other stayed home. Today, BOTH parents work and most Americans are barely getting by.
The reason why we didn’t notice the drop in quality of life before was because of one thing:
Credit.
Credit cards had been in use since the ‘50s, but they had yet to catch on, largely because banks couldn’t make obscene profits from them (the interest rates they could charge were limited on a state-by-state basis).
Then, in 1978, the Supreme Court passed a law stating that banks could charge their cardholders any rate allowed in the bank's home state. With this ruling, credit cards suddenly had the potential to become a major profit center for banks. Large banks immediately shifted their credit card operations to states where there were no limits on interest rates (Delaware and South Dakota).
Credit creates the illusion of wealth (or in the US’s case for the last 30 years, the illusion of maintaining the same standard of living) because you’re able to spend more than you make or spend money without paying upfront. Americans, earning less and facing rising costs of living, gradually began their descent into indebtedness: between 1980 and 1990, credit card spending average household credit card balances quadrupled.
In this manner, the average American didn’t notice that his or her quality of life was deteriorating at a rate of about 2-3% a year. Similarly, he or she didn’t notice that more and more jobs (of greater and greater technical expertise) were shifting overseas.
And thus began the epic shift in American wealth to Wall Street (the rise in the financial industry) and China (the producer of cheap goods we had to buy due to the drop in incomes).
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i expect a downside test to S&P 915
NT
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guys, keep a close eye on natural gas (UNG) (*not a recommendation*)
NT
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You rule.
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You rule.
Agreed.
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Agreed.
Seriously, getbig should be paying this guy. ;D
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i expect a downside test to S&P 915
guys, if we breach S&P 915-920 (919 was struck yesterday) 900 will act as our next instit. support level. (imo)
also, continue observing UNG.
NT
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i expect a downside test to S&P 915
NT
guys, if we breach S&P 915-920 (919 was struck yesterday) 900 will act as our next instit. support level. (imo)
today we breached the S&P 915.00 mark. i'm anticipating a level of support near 900. violate 900.... things get ugly fast.
NT
U.S. Stocks Fall; S&P 500 Has Biggest Two-Day Drop Since April
June 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest two-day tumble since April, as Best Buy Co. posted disappointing sales and commodity producers sank on concern the economic rebound will stall.
Best Buy, the world’s biggest electronics retailer, plunged 7.3 percent after profit slumped 15 percent. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. sank at least 4.1 percent to lead commodity shares lower as oil erased a 3 percent gain and copper declined. AT&T Inc. lost 1.7 percent after the largest U.S. phone company was downgraded at Barclays Plc. Treasuries rose for a fourth day and the dollar weakened.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which surged 40 percent from a 12-year low in March through last week, retreated 1.3 percent to 911.98 at 4:02 p.m. New York time. The index slid 2.4 percent yesterday, the most since May 13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 107.24 points, or 1.3 percent, to 8,504.89.
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today we breached the S&P 915.00 mark. i'm anticipating a level of support near 900. violate 900.... things get ugly fast.
NT
U.S. Stocks Fall; S&P 500 Has Biggest Two-Day Drop Since April
June 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest two-day tumble since April, as Best Buy Co. posted disappointing sales and commodity producers sank on concern the economic rebound will stall.
Best Buy, the world’s biggest electronics retailer, plunged 7.3 percent after profit slumped 15 percent. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. sank at least 4.1 percent to lead commodity shares lower as oil erased a 3 percent gain and copper declined. AT&T Inc. lost 1.7 percent after the largest U.S. phone company was downgraded at Barclays Plc. Treasuries rose for a fourth day and the dollar weakened.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which surged 40 percent from a 12-year low in March through last week, retreated 1.3 percent to 911.98 at 4:02 p.m. New York time. The index slid 2.4 percent yesterday, the most since May 13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 107.24 points, or 1.3 percent, to 8,504.89.
Thanks for the update!
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So, we have had the U.S. markets surge pretty strongly for no real fundamental reason other than positive thoughts that there may be positive outlooks...Now it seems that the market has stopped, taken a breath and realized that there may have been no real reason for the market to surge the way it did.
If the S&P drops below 900 does it continue on a free fall, or are we going to see drops, resistance, hold the line, drop farther, repeat?
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So, we have had the U.S. markets surge pretty strongly for no real fundamental reason other than positive thoughts that there may be positive outlooks...Now it seems that the market has stopped, taken a breath and realized that there may have been no real reason for the market to surge the way it did.
If the S&P drops below 900 does it continue on a free fall, or are we going to see drops, resistance, hold the line, drop farther, repeat?
i don't forsee another freefall, rather a series of rallies w/ attendant failures.
NT
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Thanks for the update!
welcome.
NT
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i don't forsee another freefall, rather a series of rallies w/ attendant failures.
NT
So we should see something in the form of a W on the charts for the foreseeable future?
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So we should see something in the form of a W on the charts for the foreseeable future?
::)
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::)
Anything of relevance to add?
No? Fuck off then, "Champ".
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Anything of relevance to add?
No? Fuck off then, "Champ".
If you really knew who this "guy" is, you would take his cock out of your mouth, breath again and feel violated.
All cut and paste.
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If you really knew who this "guy" is, you would take his cock out of your mouth, breath again and feel violated.
All cut and paste.
Who cares. So is everyone else's shit on this board.
And who said I was taking his advice? I'm just posting on a message board man.
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GigantorX, Alex23 is angry that i refuse to answer his PM's pertaining to the Market.
ignore this child.
NT
Neuro - i heard this guy on the radio (WOR 710 NYC) prediciting a brief upswing and then a massive crash in the fall.
He listed a website: www.marketpatternwatch.c om
Have you ever heard of this guy?
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Neuro - i heard this guy on the radio (WOR 710 NYC) prediciting a brief upswing and then a massive crash in the fall.
He listed a website: www.marketpatternwatch.c om
Have you ever heard of this guy?
vaguely.
in order to keep my Market Analysis completely objective, avoidance of "talking heads" is essential. (with few exceptions)
NT
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vaguely.
in order to keep my Market Analysis completely objective, avoidance of "talking heads" is essential. (with few exceptions)
NT
His point was that the usual crowd of talking heads is not thinking long term enough in that we are going through a 75 cycle (As opposed to a shorter term cycle) and that it topped out in 2006-2007 and now we are heading for a huge downswing across the board.
I am trying to get the interview to post, it was very good.
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GigantorX, Alex23 is angry that i refuse to answer his PM's pertaining to the Market.
ignore this child.
NT
Neuro - Check this out.
If you have a chance - what are your thoughts on this?
http://www.marketpatternwatch.com/uploads/WallStreetTranscriptInterview_041409.rtf
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::)
What is your problem?
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guys, if we breach S&P 915-920 (919 was struck yesterday) 900 will act as our next instit. support level. (imo)
also, continue observing UNG.
NT
test @ 915.00 failed as anticipated. S&P struck 903.00 and bounced slightly to finish @ 910.00
holding 900 is essential.
NT
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Neuro - Check this out.
If you have a chance - what are your thoughts on this?
http://www.marketpatternwatch.com/uploads/WallStreetTranscriptInterview_041409.rtf
interesting interview. we mostly agree.
NT
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interesting interview. we mostly agree.
NT
Great. Thanks.
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Here's a bone for ya', kids. BAC is a BUY. $20 stock a year out. ;)
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Here's a bone for ya', kids. BAC is a BUY. $20 stock a year out. ;)
Been playing a virtual stock market game with a bunch of people and just put in an order for $900k worth a 1/2 hour ago. If only it were $900k of real money. :'(
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Been playing a virtual stock market game with a bunch of people and just put in an order for $900k worth a 1/2 hour ago. If only it were $900k of real money. :'(
ha! ;D At least you are testing your skills in a way that you can't lose any real money.
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ha! ;D At least you are testing your skills in a way that you can't lose any real money.
1st place out of 51, HA. Been shorting the shit out of PNC and a few other banks. Covered all my shorts this morning and went long on BAC.
I've got some real money (not a lot) in the actual stock market but the virtual games let me fuck around with interesting strategies. Not going to be taking huge risks with my own money. :D
Funny thing is I'm learning a lot more doing it myself than the handful of shitty investment classes I took. ::)
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1st place out of 51, HA. Been shorting the shit out of PNC and a few other banks. Covered all my shorts this morning and went long on BAC.
I've got some real money (not a lot) in the actual stock market but the virtual games let me fuck around with interesting strategies. Not going to be taking huge risks with my own money. :D
Funny thing is I'm learning a lot more doing it myself than the handful of shitty investment classes I took. ::)
Those classes probably at least took away the intimidation factor of investing, if nothing else.
Assuming you are not in competition with a group of eighth grade kids, 1st out of 51 is impressive. :D Have you tried to compete in some of those offering actual cash prizes? I believe there are a few out there. I know there used to be such mock portfolio competitions for students.
My virtual stock plays always do much better or much worse than my "real world" personal investments. I'm more diversified and conservative in my approach when playing for keeps.
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Been playing a virtual stock market game with a bunch of people and just put in an order for $900k worth a 1/2 hour ago. If only it were $900k of real money. :'(
Which one?
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guys, heading out to Vegas w/ the wife for a long weekend. the Citation is packed, fueled up and next in line on the runway.
have a great weekend !
NT
PS ignore todays action. (quadruple witching)
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guys, heading out to Vegas w/ the wife for a long weekend. the Citation is packed, fueled up and next in line on the runway.
have a great weekend !
NT
PS ignore todays action. (quadruple witching)
What a coincidence, I'm ready to walk over to the pub for my vacation. Kinda similar.
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guys, heading out to Vegas w/ the wife for a long weekend. the Citation is packed, fueled up and next in line on the runway.
have a great weekend !
NT
PS ignore todays action. (quadruple witching)
Hahahahah of course you are... ::)
pics or it doesn't exist.
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Despite his negative view on the economy, Buffett still believes the stock market is attractive "over the next 10 years" when compared to alternatives like Treasury bonds.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31526130
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900 is a key psychological support level. lots of game playing to prevent a breach.(IMO)
NT
S&P 900>>>875>>>850
Gov. intervention is slowing up the process.(IMO)
NT
guys, now is the time to be very careful. since March we have experienced a nice Bear Market Rally.( on low volume) a downside correction from here is likely.
NT
if S&P breach's 900, 875 should act as our next support level.
NT
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July 2
The S&P 500 tumbled 2.8 percent to 897.29 , extending its slump since June 12 to 5.2 percent and erasing its 2009 gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 212.82 points, or 2.5 percent, to 8,291.24. Seventeen stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest decline since April 20. The NYSE close was delayed 15 minutes because of “connectivity problems.” ;)
NT
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July 2
The S&P 500 tumbled 2.8 percent to 897.29 , extending its slump since June 12 to 5.2 percent and erasing its 2009 gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 212.82 points, or 2.5 percent, to 8,291.24. Seventeen stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest decline since April 20. The NYSE close was delayed 15 minutes because of “connectivity problems.” ;)
NT
Neuro - what do you think of investing in gold at this point?
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please be very careful. i see it pulling back further.
NT
Ok, I heard some guy on the radio saying he thinks were are in for asset deflation across the board, including oil, gold, homes, stocks, etc.
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Ok, I heard some guy on the radio saying he thinks were are in for asset deflation across the board, including oil, gold, homes, stocks, etc.
agreed.
NT
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food for thought:
during the Depression real unemployment reached 16% in 1931, peaking in 1935 @ 24%. real unemployment is currently @ 16.5 %.
NT
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food for thought:
during the Depression real unemployment reached 16% in 1931, peaking in 1935 @ 24%. real unemployment is currently @ 16.5 %.
NT
No worries. CNBC says we've hit bottom.
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No worries. CNBC says we've hit bottom.
Yep. Time for everyone to dump all there money into the market!
No worries!
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Yep. Time for everyone to dump all there money into the market!
No worries!
I have ~75% of my portfolio back in stocks since mid may.
You will miss the boat.
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I have ~75% of my portfolio back in stocks since mid may.
You will miss the boat.
yeah but that boat has a hole in it's hull.
Care to throw some names and strategies our way for entertainment purposes?
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the Bear Market rally that began on March 10th is completely controlled by the Fed/Banks. (on anemic volume)
NT
S&P 900>>>875>>>850
Gov. intervention is slowing up the process.(IMO)
NT
Are you saying it is the Fed propping up the market and not investors?
yes. (imo)
NT
CNBC: "This Market Continues To Be Propped Up By Government Intervention And Manipulation"
guys google this recent CNBC video. you may find it interesting. ;)
NT
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Thanks!
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CNBC: "This Market Continues To Be Propped Up By Government Intervention And Manipulation"
guys google this recent CNBC video. you may find it interesting. ;)
NT
Are you sure you don't read The Market Ticker? You usually mention something he already did a few days later. He talked about this CNBC video last week I believe. Karl Denninger has to be one of the smartest guys around.
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Monday, June 29. 2009
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1173-And-Here-It-Is-On-CNBC-Manipulation.html
And Here It Is On CNBC: Manipulation
Gee, you've heard me in various Tickers talk about insider trading and intentional market manipulation.
Now hear it from a trader on the floor. Listen to this clip - 6 minutes, if you're not interested in the whole thing slide in to about 2:00 in.
"This market continues to be propped up by government intervention and manipulation."
No really?
By the way, market manipulation is illegal.
Of course when you own the police force you can do whatever you damn well please, right?
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guys no surprise here, the S&P is now testing 875 support level. 879 was todays low. Dow dropped 161 points.
my long term opinion continues to remain UNCHANGED.
NT
guys, now is the time to be very careful. since March we have experienced a nice Bear Market Rally.( on low volume) a downside correction from here is likely.
S&P 900>>>875>>>850
Gov. intervention is slowing up the process. (IMO)
-
guys no surprise here, the S&P is now testing 875 support level. 879 was todays low. Dow dropped 161 points.
my long term opinion continues to remain UNCHANGED.
NT
I posted the video of the CNBC guy.
I personally believe that the market also realizes that the govts' attempts to turn things around is failing miserably and that they shot their load on the bailouts and stim bill.
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3's, thanks for posting the vid.
trust me WS knows exactly what's happening.
NT
Whats funny to me is anyone acting like this is a surprise. The stimulus bill was nothing more than a govt pork bill, not a private sector jobs bill.
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Whats funny to me is anyone acting like this is a surprise. The stimulus bill was nothing more than a govt pork bill, not a private sector jobs bill.
correct. 90% was BS.
NT
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for a good laugh,
can someone please explain why anyone is still watching this show?
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guys no surprise here, the S&P is now testing 875 support level. 879 was todays low. Dow dropped 161 points.
my long term opinion continues to remain UNCHANGED.
NT
S&P 875 support was tested and held yesterday.(870 was low) anticipate a short cover rally off said support.
NT
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S&P 875 support was tested and held yesterday.(870 was low) anticipate a short cover rally off said support.
NT
yesterdays short cover rally FAILED going into the close. Market is extremely weak and trading on very lite volume. although, on a short term basis Market is OVERSOLD, so any "good news" could spark another BS rally.
guys keep in mind a breach of the 200dma (still holding) leaves a high probability of testing March lows in the coming weeks/months.
traders Market only....please be careful!
NT
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yesterdays short cover rally FAILED going into the close. Market is extremely weak and trading on very lite volume. although, on a short term basis Market is OVERSOLD, so any "good news" could spark another BS rally.
guys keep in mind a breach of the 200dma (still holding) leaves a high probability of testing March lows in the coming weeks/months.
traders Market only....please be careful!
NT
Thanks.
Neuro - do any of the people you talk to ever discuss massive money on the sidelines waiting to see what happens with taxes, health care, cap & trade etc?
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yesterdays short cover rally FAILED going into the close. Market is extremely weak and trading on very lite volume. although, on a short term basis Market is OVERSOLD, so any "good news" could spark another BS rally.
NT
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Thanks.
Neuro - do any of the people you talk to ever discuss massive money on the sidelines waiting to see what happens with taxes, health care, cap & trade etc?
yes, sideline money at record levels.
NT
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yes, sideline money at record levels.
NT
I know this from speaking to clients and even myself. Most are just hanging on and waiting to see what is going to happen and are pretty scared right now from what they see going on.
These are people who all make in the 150k to 500k a year range.
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S&P 875 support was tested and held yesterday.(870 was low) anticipate a short cover rally off said support.
NT
guys, as expected another nice short cover rally emerged this week. with the S&P approaching 950 (top of the range) on low volume, NOW is the time to be careful.
NT
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guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.
NT
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guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.
NT
Thanks. Nuero - if Cap & Trade and Health care Reform fail, do you see the market reacting to that?
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Thanks. Nuero - if Cap & Trade and Health care Reform fail, do you see the market reacting to that?
no, current market conditions revolve around the Banks. keep a close eye on GS. (WS's biggest ally)
NT
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guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.
NT
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its highest level since November, as a gauge of economic indicators topped projections and speculation grew that CIT Group Inc. will avoid bankruptcy. Treasuries rose and the dollar fell.
The S&P 500 added 1.1 percent to 951.13 above its best close since Nov. 5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 104.21 points, or 1.2 percent, to 8,848.15, erasing its loss for the year and closing at a six- month high. Treasuries rose, pushing yields down from the highest levels in almost four weeks, amid speculation Bernanke may ease inflation concerns. The dollar dropped to a six-week low against the euro.
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guys expect S&P 950-960 area to be tested today. volume continues to remain anemic which is cause for concern.
NT
as anticipated S&P rallied to 951 yesterday.(on anemic volume) Market is now overbought and nearing stiff resistance @ 960. a breakout above 960 would force another short cover rally, pushing S&P to 1,000. conversely, failure to breakout above 960 should lead to another ample selloff.
just my opinion.
NT
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Market is overbought on low volume @ top of its range. highest probability from here is lower.
my opinion from above post stands.
NT
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as anticipated S&P rallied to 951 yesterday.(on anemic volume) Market is now overbought and nearing stiff resistance @ 960. a breakout above 960 would force another short cover rally, pushing S&P to 1,000. conversely, failure to breakout above 960 should lead to another ample selloff.
NT
initial jobless claims (released today) should dictate whether S&P breaks out or selloffs. recent unremarkable Volume lends concern for the latter.
yesterday 960 was tested to the upside and failed (959.85 ) closing @ 954 on low Volume.
NT
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The problem I see with these "earnings" is that they are from massive lay-offs and cost cutting. Not a bad thing mind you, but it doesn't seem like the profits are from increased demand and production/expansion.
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The problem I see with these "earnings" is that they are from massive lay-offs and cost cutting. Not a bad thing mind you, but it doesn't seem like the profits are from increased demand and production/expansion.
I agree. Plus you still have massive manipulations going on. Ratings agencies are bumping up the ratings on certain institutions this week that were downgraded last week just so they can be eligible for programs like TALF. What does that say? It's getting pretty tiring watching the market react to cheerleading instead of anything substantial. People are getting a boner because some companies are beating low expectations, yay. ::)
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No, nothing to see here.
HOLY !@#!! Treasury Auction Schedule
Let's see if I can count this up....
70 day CMBs, $30 billion (tomorrow)
13 week Bills, $32 billion (July 27th)
26 week Bills, $31 billion (July 27th)
52 week Bills, $27 billion (July 28th)
2 year Notes, $42 billion (July 28th)
5 year Notes, $39 billion (July 29th)
7 year Notes, $28 billion (July 30th)
19 year, 6 month TIPS (reopened), $6 billion (July 27th)
That's two hundred thirty-five billion dollars over the next week!
Almost one quarter of a trillion....... geejus.
At this run rate we would be trying to sell twelve trillion dollars over one year's time, an obviously ridiculous and impossible-to-peddle amount of debt at any price.
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We're in the eye of the hurricane.
(http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-filesystemfile.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/thoughts_5F00_from_5F00_the_5F00_frontline/jm041009image001_5F00_54AC6D95.jpg)
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I agree. Plus you still have massive manipulations going on. Ratings agencies are bumping up the ratings on certain institutions this week that were downgraded last week just so they can be eligible for programs like TALF. What does that say? It's getting pretty tiring watching the market react to cheerleading instead of anything substantial. People are getting a boner because some companies are beating low expectations, yay. ::)
as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.
furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.
why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.
just my opinion.
NT
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as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.
furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.
why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.
just my opinion.
NT
Exactly.
My thoughts:
1. If the consumer is 70% of GDP and UE is racing to over 10%, how can these companies have better earning unless said earnings are really a result of cost cutting?
2. Mark to market accounting change is allowing these banks not to do the write downs on the commercial RE defaults and residential RE foreclosures.
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Exactly.
My thoughts:
1. If the consumer is 70% of GDP and UE is racing to over 10%, how can these companies have better earning unless said earnings are really a result of cost cutting?
2. Mark to market accounting change is allowing these banks not to do the write downs on the commercial RE defaults and residential RE foreclosures.
companies do not have better earnings, they have "better than expected earnings" with analysts in on the game.
mark to market allows Banks to hide toxic assets creating "higher profits"
just my opinion.
NT
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Thantks Neuro.
I am triyng to explain this to some of these fools arguing that the stimulus bill is what is making the economy better. Ha ha.
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guys, S&P's high yesterday was 982 on anemic volume. market is currently overbought and institutional resistance is 1,000. highest probability from here is LOWER.
just my opinion.
NT
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as anticipated S&P rallied to 951 yesterday.(on anemic volume) Market is now overbought and nearing stiff resistance @ 960. a breakout above 960 would force another short cover rally, pushing S&P to 1,000. conversely, failure to breakout above 960 should lead to another ample selloff.
just my opinion.
NT
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guys, the recent breakout above 960 was created by GS and is built on quicksand.(no volume) volume MUST match price for a rally to sustain itself.
just my opinion.
NT
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guys, the recent breakout above 960 was created by GS and is built on quicksand.(no volume) volume MUST match price for a rally to sustain itself.
just my opinion.
NT
Neuro:
You meant he economy is not on a V Shape recovery and things are rapidly improving???
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Neuro:
You meant he economy is not on a V Shape recovery and things are rapidly improving???
personally i'd like to see V shaped recovery but not sure it will occur. with the Market now tied directly to the Banks/Fed/PPT its a totally different ballgame, so anything's possible.
the Market's resilience despite no volume......speaks volumes. ;)
Just my opinion.
NT
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S&P 875 support was tested and held yesterday.(870 was low) anticipate a short cover rally off said support.
NT
870 to 982 on unremarkable volume.
be careful.
NT
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870 to 982 on unremarkable volume.
be careful.
NT
Wrong again.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/07/22/are-stocks-set-for-the-biggest-rally-since-82.aspx
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as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.
furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.
why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.
just my opinion.
NT
personally i'd like to see V shaped recovery but not sure it will occur. with the Market now tied directly to the Banks/Fed/PPT its a totally different ballgame, so anything's possible.
the Market's resilience despite no volume......speaks volumes. ;)
Just my opinion.
NT
guys, with Market manipulation at unprecedented levels, a push to 1,000 (S&P) is not completely out of the question. furthermore, a breakout ABOVE 1,000 and my Long Term Opinion would shift to more Bullish. (while holding my nose)
currently we're in unchartered territory w/ the Feds owning the Banking system, so anything can happen!
banks control the Market, Feds control the banks. any questions ?
just my opinion.
NT
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guys, with Market manipulation at unprecedented levels, a push to 1,000 (S&P) is not completely out of the question. furthermore, a breakout ABOVE 1,000 and my Long Term Opinion would shift to more Bullish. (while holding my nose)
currently we're in unchartered territory w/ the Feds owning the Banking system, so anything can happen!
banks control the Market, Feds control the banks. any questions ?
just my opinion.
NT
I have a theory, what do you think?
Massive selloff in the fall in the next two months or a little later. The insiders know what it going on and are trying cash in as much as possible now before the collapse. The runup is a way to recoup losses on the march lows.
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I have a theory, what do you think?
Massive selloff in the fall in the next two months or a little later. The insiders know what it going on and are trying cash in as much as possible now before the collapse. The runup is a way to recoup losses on the march lows.
anythings possible in current environment.
NT
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guys, with Market manipulation at unprecedented levels, a push to 1,000 (S&P) is not completely out of the question. furthermore, a breakout ABOVE 1,000 and my Long Term Opinion would shift to more Bullish. (while holding my nose)
currently we're in unchartered territory w/ the Feds owning the Banking system, so anything can happen!
banks control the Market, Feds control the banks. any questions ?
just my opinion.
NT
based on above and recent Market action, my current opinion is much more Bullish. Market forces seem determined to push this Market higher.
just my opinion.
NT
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guys, with Market manipulation at unprecedented levels, a push to 1,000 (S&P) is not completely out of the question. furthermore, a breakout ABOVE 1,000 and my Long Term Opinion would shift to more Bullish. (while holding my nose)
currently we're in unchartered territory w/ the Feds owning the Banking system, so anything can happen!
banks control the Market, Feds control the banks. any questions ?
just my opinion.
NT
S&P rallied to 998.6 on unremarkable volume before selling off into the close.( 986.0)
failing to breakout above 1000 should produce a much needed pullback.
just my opinion.
NT
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S&P rallied to 998.6 on unremarkable volume before selling off into the close.( 986.0)
failing to breakout above 1000 should produce a much needed pullback.
just my opinion.
NT
not much happening as we sit below 1000. yesterdays close 987 w/ no volume.
guys, once we officially turn Bullish, it's important to be invested in the next 'Bubble Sector'. our country's dependent on temporary Bubbles to stimulate the economy. ( Tech bubble, Housing bubble etc) this time should be no different.
just my opinion.
NT
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so what's the next bubble?
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S&P rallied to 998.6 on unremarkable volume before selling off into the close.( 986.0)
failing to breakout above 1000 should produce a much needed pullback.
just my opinion.
NT
opinion unchanged.
NT
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so what's the next bubble?
at the appropriate time i will pass along my opinion concerning above topic.
NT
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Here's a bone for ya', kids. BAC is a BUY. $20 stock a year out. ;)
Hope you all were paying attention. ;)
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guys, with the Market being controlled by the Fed/Banks, a re-test/correction to the March lows appears unlikely. buying the Banking sector on pullbacks (XLF, GS, BAC,WFC, JPM, KRE) if you so choose, could produce nice LONG TERM returns.
S&P closed today @ 1,002. on anemic volume. Market continues to be OVERBOUGHT.
just my opinion.
NT
current market conditions revolve around the Banks. keep a close eye on GS. (WS's biggest ally)
NT
guys, with Market manipulation at unprecedented levels, a push to 1,000 (S&P) is not completely out of the question. furthermore, a breakout ABOVE 1,000 and my Long Term Opinion would shift to more Bullish. (while holding my nose)
currently we're in unchartered territory w/ the Feds owning the Banking system, so anything can happen!
Banks control the Market, Feds control the Banks. any questions ?
just my opinion.
NT
as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.
furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.
why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.
just my opinion.
NT
personally i'd like to see V shaped recovery but not sure it will occur. with the Market now tied directly to the Banks/Fed/PPT its a totally different ballgame, so anything's possible.
the Market's resilience despite no volume......speaks volumes. ;)
Just my opinion.
NT
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Goldman Sachs, the $100-million-a-day company
AP
Investment bank Goldman Sachs made $100 million or more trading on the stock market on each of 46 trading days in the second quarter on 2009. In all, the company made at least that much money on 71 percent of the days it was doing business.
According to a report at Bloomberg news service, Goldman's profits are an all-time record -- beating out the previous record of 34 days of $100-million profits -- set by Goldman in the previous quarter.
Goldman, a major beneficiary of last fall's bank bailouts, by some accounts now controls half of all the program trading (computer-based automatic trading) done on Wall Street.
NT
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Goldman Sachs, the $100-million-a-day company
AP
Investment bank Goldman Sachs made $100 million or more trading on the stock market on each of 46 trading days in the second quarter on 2009. In all, the company made at least that much money on 71 percent of the days it was doing business.
According to a report at Bloomberg news service, Goldman's profits are an all-time record -- beating out the previous record of 34 days of $100-million profits -- set by Goldman in the previous quarter.
Goldman, a major beneficiary of last fall's bank bailouts, by some accounts now controls half of all the program trading (computer-based automatic trading) done on Wall Street.
NT
To the victor goes the spoils of the taxpayers' money. .
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guys... i expect the Market to remain essentially flat today. tomorrows unemployment and non-farm payroll numbers should spice things up heading into the weekend.
just my opinion.
NT
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guys... i expect the Market to remain essentially flat today. tomorrows unemployment and non-farm payroll numbers should spice things up heading into the weekend.
just my opinion.
NT
NEW YORK U.S. stocks traded slightly lower Thursday, weighed down by telecom, health care and energy stocks, though the declines were mitigated by continued strength in the financial sector.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 24 points at 9256, hurt by a decline in Procter & Gamble, which fell 3.9% a day after it reported a decline in fourth-quarter sales.
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guys, with the Market being controlled by the Fed/Banks, a re-test/correction to the March lows appears unlikely. buying the Banking sector on pullbacks (XLF, GS, BAC,WFC, JPM, KRE) if you so choose, could produce nice LONG TERM returns.
Market continues to be OVERBOUGHT.
just my opinion.
NT
market continues to be overbought on low volume. anticipate a pullback in the coming days.
just my opinion.
NT
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U.S. Stocks Fall on Valuations; Eli Lilly, Best Buy, Nucor Drop
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell after four straight weeks of gains left the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index trading at its most-expensive relative to earnings in more than four years. European equities also dropped, while Treasuries rose for the first time in six days.
3M Co. and Alcoa Inc. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower. Eli Lilly & Co. and Best Buy Co. lost at least 3.3 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its rating on the shares. State Street Corp. slid 3.3 percent after saying it may deplete $625 million in reserves set aside in 2007 to settle claims stemming from losses linked to subprime mortgages.
The S&P 500 slipped from a 10-month high, retreating 0.5 percent to 1,005.38 as of 3:06 p.m. in New York. The Dow average fell 47.83 points, or 0.5 percent, to 9,322.24. Eight stocks fell for every five rising on the New York Stock Exchange.
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guys despite todays modest pullback, Banks remain resilient and strong, helping prop the S&P above 1000. 1025 is not out of the equation in this type environment.
keep a close eye on GS.
just my opinion.
NT
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market continues to be overbought on low volume. anticipate a pullback in the coming days.
just my opinion.
NT
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped the most in a month, led by financials, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said credit losses may overwhelm capital at MBIA Inc. and analyst Dick Bove said bank earnings won’t improve in the second half of the year.
MBIA, the biggest bond insurer, tumbled 13 percent after JPMorgan cut the company to “underweight.” All but one of 24 shares in the KBW Bank Index fell as Bove, analyst at Rochdale Securities, said banks will probably retreat. CIT Group Inc., the commercial lender trying to avoid a collapse, slid 19 percent after delaying its earnings report. Sprint Nextel Corp. and Yum! Brands Inc. declined on analyst downgrades.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 1.3 percent to 994.35 its worst drop since July 7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 96.5 points, or 1 percent, to 9,241.45. About four stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.
“Most companies have beat earnings estimates, but they did it through cost savings,” said Alan Gayle, the Richmond, Virginia-based director of asset allocation at Ridgeworth Investments, which manages $60 billion. “Market expectations are being raised. The pressure is going to be on now that the consensus is we’re beginning a recovery.”
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Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped the most in a month, led by financials, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said credit losses may overwhelm capital at MBIA Inc. and analyst Dick Bove said bank earnings won’t improve in the second half of the year.
hahhahahahahaha
(http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a361/mzcmdr/Youarehere.jpg)
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Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped the most in a month, led by financials, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said credit losses may overwhelm capital at MBIA Inc. and analyst Dick Bove said bank earnings won’t improve in the second half of the year.
guys continue to focus on the Banks/Financials. as i've mentioned before, this is the ONLY sector moving the Market. (up or down) GS being the Kingpin.
just my opinion.
NT
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guys, without a significant correction/pullback since the March rally began, (on low volume) i'd be very careful on the Long side.
NT
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guys, without a significant correction/pullback since the March rally began, (on low volume) i'd be very careful on the Long side.
NT
Stocks tumble on consumer fears
August 17, 2009
NEW YORK -- Wall Street slumped Monday, falling for the second straight session, as worries that nervous consumers will pressure a fragile recovery dragged stocks lower after a five-month advance.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 186 points, or 2%, after having lost as much as 204 points earlier. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 24 points, or 2.4%.
Both the Dow and S&P 500 closed at 3-week lows.
The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 55 points, or 2.8%, ending at a one-month low.
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guys, without a significant correction/pullback since the March rally began, (on low volume) i'd be very careful on the Long side.
NT
Stocks plunge on worries that the market gains have raced ahead of any economic recovery. Dow down 185 points; S&P 500, Nasdaq sink 2%.
NEW YORK Markets tumbled Tuesday, as investors took a big step back at the start of what is typically a rough month, betting that stocks have risen too far too fast without any underlying support.
"I think we've had a nice run and it's time for a bit of a pullback," said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus. "I wouldn't be surprised if we moved back to the 880 level (on the S&P 500) before moving back up."
A drop to the 880 level would constitute a slide of about 12% from the current levels.
Investors nitpicked through the morning's better-than-expected reports on housing and manufacturing but found little reason to jump back into the fray.
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 186 points, or almost 2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 22 points, or 2.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 40 points, or 2%.
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guys, S&P closed yesterday below the psychological level of 1000... on HEAVY volume. the run up since March has been accompanied by LOW volume/support, making a market correction highly probable.
NT
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guys, i'd like to see the S&P correct to 880-900 area before pressing higher heading into the Holidays.
980 should act as our next temporary support level.
NT
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as long as the Banks are controlled by the Feds/PPT, Market fundamentals and Market movement are completely irrelevant. in this type environment Technicals are your only compass.
furthermore, institutional traders are less interested in selling shares or shorting the Market as long as the Banks continue to be propped/manipulated.
why such manipulation you ask ? short answer: wealth effect. consumers drive 70% of our economy...... if the consumer "feels good" about the Stock Market/401k they tend to spend more, thereby increasing GDP with the hope of ending our prolonged recession. is the system "fixed" ? Yes.
just my opinion.
NT
guys, continue to follow GS as they dictate markets direction.
fundamentals are meaningless....for now.
NT
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UNG seems poised IMO.
NT
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i'm often asked how the Market continues to head higher despite dismal economic news. allegedly, most of the stimulus money provided to the Banks (GS etc.) is being utilized to "Make a Market" by buying up the financial sector/stocks rather then using the capital for lending purposes.
as long as the Bank stocks trend higher, the overall Market will always follow.
guys, always keep a close eye on GS. ;)
NT
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i'm often asked how the Market continues to head higher despite dismal economic news. allegedly, most of the stimulus money provided to the Banks (GS etc.) is being utilized to "Make a Market" by buying up the financial sector/stocks rather then using the capital for lending purposes.
as long as the Bank stocks trend higher, the overall Market will always follow.
guys, always keep a close eye on GS. ;)
NT
In your opinion, what kind of action should the legislative and executive branch have taken last year?
Ideally?
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i'm often asked how the Market continues to head higher despite dismal economic news. allegedly, most of the stimulus money provided to the Banks (GS etc.) is being utilized to "Make a Market" by buying up the financial sector/stocks rather then using the capital for lending purposes.
as long as the Bank stocks trend higher, the overall Market will always follow.
guys, always keep a close eye on GS. ;)
NT
The Goldman Sach's prop desk is quite busy these days...
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How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash.
WASHINGTON — In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting.
Goldman's sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation's premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies.
Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk.
Now, pension funds, insurance companies, labor unions and foreign financial institutions that bought those dicey mortgage securities are facing large losses, and a five-month McClatchy investigation has found that Goldman's failure to disclose that it made secret, exotic bets on an imminent housing crash may have violated securities laws.
"The Securities and Exchange Commission should be very interested in any financial company that secretly decides a financial product is a loser and then goes out and actively markets that product or very similar products to unsuspecting customers without disclosing its true opinion," said Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor who's proposed a massive overhaul of the nation's banks. "This is fraud and should be prosecuted."
John Coffee, a Columbia University law professor who served on an advisory committee to the New York Stock Exchange, said that investment banks have wide latitude to manage their assets, and so the legality of Goldman's maneuvers depends on what its executives knew at the time.
"It would look much more damaging," Coffee said, "if it appeared that the firm was dumping these investments because it saw them as toxic waste and virtually worthless."
Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman's chairman and chief executive, declined to be interviewed for this article.
A Goldman spokesman, Michael DuVally, said that the firm decided in December 2006 to reduce its mortgage risks and did so by selling off subprime-related securities and making myriad insurance-like bets, called credit-default swaps, to "hedge" against a housing downturn.
DuVally told McClatchy that Goldman "had no obligation to disclose how it was managing its risk, nor would investors have expected us to do so ... other market participants had access to the same information we did."
For the past year, Goldman has been on the defensive over its Washington connections and the billions in federal bailout funds it received. Scant attention has been paid, however, to how it became the only major Wall Street player to extricate itself from the subprime securities market before the housing bubble burst.
Goldman remains, along with Morgan Stanley, one of two venerable Wall Street investment banks still standing. Their grievously wounded peers Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch fell into the arms of retail banks, while another, Lehman Brothers, folded.
To piece together Goldman's role in the subprime meltdown, McClatchy reviewed hundreds of documents, SEC filings, copies of secret investment circulars, lawsuits and interviewed numerous people familiar with the firm's activities. 8)
Goldman Sachs:
Bought and converted into high-yield bonds tens of thousands of mortgages from subprime lenders that became the subjects of FBI investigations into whether they'd misled borrowers or exaggerated applicants' incomes to justify making hefty loans.
Used offshore tax havens to shuffle its mortgage-backed securities to institutions worldwide, including European and Asian banks, often in secret deals run through the Cayman Islands, a British territory in the Caribbean that companies use to bypass U.S. disclosure requirements.
Has dispatched lawyers across the country to repossess homes from bankrupt or financially struggling individuals, many of whom lacked sufficient credit or income but got subprime mortgages anyway because Wall Street made it easy for them to qualify.
Was buoyed last fall by key federal bailout decisions, at least two of which involved then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former Goldman chief executive whose staff at Treasury included several other Goldman alumni.
The firm benefited when Paulson elected not to save rival Lehman Brothers from collapse, and when he organized a massive rescue of tottering global insurer American International Group while in constant telephone contact with Goldman chief Blankfein. With the Federal Reserve Board's blessing, AIG later used $12.9 billion in taxpayers' dollars to pay off every penny it owed Goldman.
These decisions preserved billions of dollars in value for Goldman's executives and shareholders. For example, Blankfein held 1.6 million shares in the company in September 2008, and he could have lost more than $150 million if his firm had gone bankrupt.
With the help of more than $23 billion in direct and indirect federal aid, Goldman appears to have emerged intact from the economic implosion, limiting its subprime losses to $1.5 billion. By repaying $10 billion in direct federal bailout money — a 23 percent taxpayer return that exceeded federal officials' demand — the firm has escaped tough federal limits on 2009 bonuses to executives of firms that received bailout money.
Goldman announced record earnings in July, and the firm is on course to surpass $50 billion in revenue in 2009 and to pay its employees more than $20 billion in year-end bonuses.
NT
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How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash.
WASHINGTON — In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting.
Goldman's sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation's premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies.
Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk.
Now, pension funds, insurance companies, labor unions and foreign financial institutions that bought those dicey mortgage securities are facing large losses, and a five-month McClatchy investigation has found that Goldman's failure to disclose that it made secret, exotic bets on an imminent housing crash may have violated securities laws.
"The Securities and Exchange Commission should be very interested in any financial company that secretly decides a financial product is a loser and then goes out and actively markets that product or very similar products to unsuspecting customers without disclosing its true opinion," said Laurence Kotlikoff, a Boston University economics professor who's proposed a massive overhaul of the nation's banks. "This is fraud and should be prosecuted."
John Coffee, a Columbia University law professor who served on an advisory committee to the New York Stock Exchange, said that investment banks have wide latitude to manage their assets, and so the legality of Goldman's maneuvers depends on what its executives knew at the time.
"It would look much more damaging," Coffee said, "if it appeared that the firm was dumping these investments because it saw them as toxic waste and virtually worthless."
Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman's chairman and chief executive, declined to be interviewed for this article.
A Goldman spokesman, Michael DuVally, said that the firm decided in December 2006 to reduce its mortgage risks and did so by selling off subprime-related securities and making myriad insurance-like bets, called credit-default swaps, to "hedge" against a housing downturn.
DuVally told McClatchy that Goldman "had no obligation to disclose how it was managing its risk, nor would investors have expected us to do so ... other market participants had access to the same information we did."
For the past year, Goldman has been on the defensive over its Washington connections and the billions in federal bailout funds it received. Scant attention has been paid, however, to how it became the only major Wall Street player to extricate itself from the subprime securities market before the housing bubble burst.
Goldman remains, along with Morgan Stanley, one of two venerable Wall Street investment banks still standing. Their grievously wounded peers Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch fell into the arms of retail banks, while another, Lehman Brothers, folded.
To piece together Goldman's role in the subprime meltdown, McClatchy reviewed hundreds of documents, SEC filings, copies of secret investment circulars, lawsuits and interviewed numerous people familiar with the firm's activities. 8)
Goldman Sachs:
Bought and converted into high-yield bonds tens of thousands of mortgages from subprime lenders that became the subjects of FBI investigations into whether they'd misled borrowers or exaggerated applicants' incomes to justify making hefty loans.
Used offshore tax havens to shuffle its mortgage-backed securities to institutions worldwide, including European and Asian banks, often in secret deals run through the Cayman Islands, a British territory in the Caribbean that companies use to bypass U.S. disclosure requirements.
Has dispatched lawyers across the country to repossess homes from bankrupt or financially struggling individuals, many of whom lacked sufficient credit or income but got subprime mortgages anyway because Wall Street made it easy for them to qualify.
Was buoyed last fall by key federal bailout decisions, at least two of which involved then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former Goldman chief executive whose staff at Treasury included several other Goldman alumni.
The firm benefited when Paulson elected not to save rival Lehman Brothers from collapse, and when he organized a massive rescue of tottering global insurer American International Group while in constant telephone contact with Goldman chief Blankfein. With the Federal Reserve Board's blessing, AIG later used $12.9 billion in taxpayers' dollars to pay off every penny it owed Goldman.
These decisions preserved billions of dollars in value for Goldman's executives and shareholders. For example, Blankfein held 1.6 million shares in the company in September 2008, and he could have lost more than $150 million if his firm had gone bankrupt.
With the help of more than $23 billion in direct and indirect federal aid, Goldman appears to have emerged intact from the economic implosion, limiting its subprime losses to $1.5 billion. By repaying $10 billion in direct federal bailout money — a 23 percent taxpayer return that exceeded federal officials' demand — the firm has escaped tough federal limits on 2009 bonuses to executives of firms that received bailout money.
Goldman announced record earnings in July, and the firm is on course to surpass $50 billion in revenue in 2009 and to pay its employees more than $20 billion in year-end bonuses.
NT
I saw this a few days ago. GS is organized crime. There are no two ways about it.
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I saw this a few days ago. GS is organized crime. There are no two ways about it.
They are a force of fucking nature, no two ways about it. Hanky Panky Paulsen and Terrible Timmy Geightner are all from that death star. They have profited the most from this economic annihilation. No material risk, their HFT computers and trading software is worth billions and they more than undue influence in D.C.
Simply amazing.
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guys continue to focus on the Banks/Financials. as i've mentioned before, this is the ONLY sector moving the Market. (up or down) GS being the Kingpin.
just my opinion.
NT
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They are a force of fucking nature, no two ways about it. Hanky Panky Paulsen and Terrible Timmy Geightner are all from that death star. They have profited the most from this economic annihilation. No material risk, their HFT computers and trading software is worth billions and they more than undue influence in D.C.
Simply amazing.
However, if you look at where we are heading, its going ot get worse.
I have posted relentlessly about this Cap & Trade scam and GS's involvement in this. The more I read about, the worse it gets.
This is why we need to end too big to fail asap and let these criminal gangs fail.
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i anticipate a double dip recession.
a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.
NT
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i anticipate a double dip recession.
a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.
NT
Neuro - i speak with business people every day and not one has any sense of a recovery or things turning around. most are pretrified of the govt and the mandates coming down the pike and will not hire anyone. In fact, most are still laying people off and trying to switch everyone to 1099's and temp agencies.
Additionally, the local taxes are still increasing at a fast rate.
This ship is sinking fast and no amount of fed printing is going to fix this.
The cure in my opinion, is something this govt refuses to even consider. Let the mess run its course and focus on re-industriailizing. Lets these criminal banksters beg in the streets and open up Manufactirung Zones where we can focus on getting people to work in productive jobs making stuff.
Until then, its all nonsense.
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i anticipate a double dip recession.
a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.
NT
You actually have to recover to go on the dip again. This is a pure fantasy recovery, plain and simple. No job growth, shrinking wages, cut hours, low confidence, low spending and shrinking consumer credit. The "fantasy recovery" is riding on the backs of Admin./Media complex propaganda, a destroyed dollar, and an inflation charged DOW. Add to the fact that Goldmans price target for oil is 100$ and all the hedges will use it to drive the price up to protect against inflation and all of the pension funds will use it to meet their replacement qoutas and you have a constant and deep recession.
The admin. could have been responsible and made "changes" and showed some leadership, but they fell for the same old scam.
We are gonna come the same old way and we are going to lose the same old way.
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guys, market is extremely weak. please be very careful.
NT
Come on Neuro. I heard it was all green shoots and recovery. No?
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with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a short cover/bear market rally in the very near future.
for any of you who caught the March Low... taking some profits might be a reasonable idea.
NT
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banking sector remains weak.
please use caution.
NT
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in addition to keeping a close eye on GS/Banks, observe UUP (dollar) as it is trading inverse to market.
dollar down, market up.
if Fed takes action to strengthen the dollar, market will tank.
talk about a conundrum.
NT
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Gold at eleven hundred dollars an ounce... told you so.
The Luke
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banking sector remains weak.
please use caution.
NT
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guys, insider buying picked up last week with a total of $118M in buying. selling continues to trump buying, with insiders selling $739M in stock.
NT
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so is the shit about to hit again or are we talking about a dip with those numbers?
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Stocks: Five Market Mistakes to Avoid
Despite a rally, these remain tricky times for investors. Pros tell how to sidestep potential pitfalls for your portfolio
By Ben Steverman
Markets may have rebounded in 2009, but individual investors are still edgy and shell-shocked.
Even as the broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index remained up 56% since March, the U.S. unemployment rate crept above 10%, according to a Labor Dept. report released Nov. 6. "I don't think many people are feeling very relieved," says Milo Benningfield of Benningfield Financial Advisors in San Francisco. Many people believe the "[stock market rally] can't last," he says.
These remain risky times, and the last few years have demonstrated to investors the high cost of doing the wrong thing. Against that nervous backdrop, BusinessWeek asked financial advisers what common mistakes investors are making, and how to avoid them:
1. Don't Jump In All at Once
A little optimism can be a dangerous thing. Individual investors are notorious for selling stocks when markets have already dropped and buying after they have risen. And, says Susan Elser of Elser Financial Planning in Indianapolis, "Selling low and buying high is the worst thing you can do for your returns."
Among those who stayed away from stocks and other risky investments for the past year, many are irked to have missed out on the recent rally. But is now the right time to buy again?
Don't rush back into the market because you worry you've missed the rally. "The biggest mistake is [to try] to make everything up at once," says Micah Porter, president of the Minerva Planning Group in Atlanta.
At these levels, a 10%, 15%, or 20% correction in the stock market is entirely possible at almost any time. So, instead of buying all at once, Porter advises buying stocks gradually over the next year—or, if you have a lot to invest, an even longer time frame. That puts you in the market long-term, but minimizes the chances you'll buy at the market's exact peak.
2. Don't Fall for Fads or Hype
In investing, jumping on the bandwagon is often a bad idea.
For example, television ads have appeared touting gold as an investment after the precious metal's price has jumped higher, approaching $1,100 per ounce on Nov. 6.
Yet this could be the very time when gold prices are at or near their peak. "This is probably the worst time in my opinion to pile into gold," Benningfield says. He also warns against currency speculation, another recent fad. "It's really risky," he says.
Along with other commodities, gold can be a valuable part of investment portfolios. But advisers like Steve Medland of TABR Capital Management in Orange, Calif., suggest keeping gold to less than 5% of your holdings.
Lots of marketing dollars are also pushing equity-indexed annuities these days. "It is the hot product of the day," Elser says. But Elser, Medland, and others warn about the complexity and high fees of these annuities.
3. Don't Use Headlines or Politics as Investing Guides
"Making [an investing] decision based on who is in political office, whether you agree or disagree, is a huge mistake," says Elaine Scoggins, client experience director at Merriman, a Seattle-based investment advisory firm.
Since the election of Barack Obama as President, political temperatures on the right have risen (just as tempers rose among liberals during the last Administration). And that could be leading to bad investing decisions.
Based on their political beliefs, people are buying into disaster scenarios, from high inflation to a crash for the U.S. dollar to skyrocketing tax rates, Scoggins says. "There are a lot of scare tactics in the media and in politics."
Betting your portfolio on these unlikely outcomes can be a big mistake.
"There's incredible fear out there," says Paul Sutherland, chief investment officer at FIM Group in Traverse City, Mich. But not all the fear is warranted. For example, he notes, a weaker dollar actually can help U.S. manufacturing or U.S. firms with overseas profits.
Politics and current events tend to spark emotions, which are a poor guide for long-term investing, Medland says. "What's going on in the headlines doesn't predict what is happening in the markets," he says.
However, one political fact investors should be aware of is the likelihood of higher taxes for wealthier Americans. Though it's hard to know when and how much rates will increase, good financial advice can help taxpayers minimize their tax bills in some cases. For example, Americans might take investment gains now, while capital gains rates are still relatively low.
4. Don't Disregard Quality
Since March, the lowest-quality companies have had the best-performing stocks. Punished in the depths of the financial crisis, they have rebounded on hopes of a recovery. For example, banks, industrial firms, or very small companies—i.e., risky firms highly influenced by the financial crisis and the recession—have seen their shares double or triple in price.
Meanwhile, companies with stable, consistent businesses have often languished in the stock market.
Don't expect that trend to continue. In fact, the trend may have already ended.
Consider the firms that have done best over the last 12 months in boosting revenue. According to Capital IQ, the top 100 revenue-raisers in the S&P 500 are up a median of 50.3% since the March low, while the firms with the 100 worst 12-month sales-growth records have rocketed higher by a median of 96.7%.
In the last month, though, the performance between the two groups began evening out, and in the past week the trend has reversed entirely. In the first week of November, the median quality firm is up 0.6%, while the median worst firm is actually down 0.2%.
John Merrill, chief investment officer at Tanglewood Wealth Management, says the shift may be the result of a new kind of investor entering the market. These stock managers have been cautious for months, but now they believe they need to start buying. Still wary of risk, "They're going to take the safest step into the market," Merrill says.
Firms with strong fundamentals also can be more resilient long-term bets and may be selling at cheaper prices after the recent rally, Sutherland says. "There are a lot of quality companies selling at great prices," he says.
The same may be true in the bond market. Porter warns against buying high-yielding junk bonds after an "incredible run" for the risky investments.
5. Don't Forget What You Learned
The sudden drop in stocks in 2008 and early 2009 taught every investor what can go wrong. Financial experts say these lessons shouldn't be forgotten, even amid a stock market rally.
"People should always be thinking about those worst-case scenarios," says Medland. The biggest mistake in a crisis, he says, is to not have a plan in advance.
The crisis also taught investors something about themselves, about their ability to invest for the long-term without selling low and buying high.
If you panicked in March and sold all your stock, you've lost out on big gains. If you're susceptible to such investing mistakes in times of crisis, maybe you should pursue a more conservative strategy, Elser says.
"People who jump in and out of the market probably shouldn't be in the market," Elser says. "You either have that tolerance for volatility or you don't."
For many investors, "one lesson is maybe they took on too much risk," Benningfield says.
Against the backdrop of a tough job market, investors are desperate for returns from their investments. They're still smarting from huge holes in their portfolio caused by the market meltdown. But it's important to remember: If you lost big on risky investments in 2008 and early 2009, the solution is not to take on even more risk in an attempt to win back your losses.
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in addition to keeping a close eye on GS/Banks, observe UUP (dollar) as it is trading inverse to market.
dollar down, market up.
if Fed takes action to strengthen the dollar, market will tank.
talk about a conundrum.
NT
Dollar Calls the Tune for Stocks, Bonds, Oil.
WSJ
A joke making the rounds among stock investors is that they've all become currency traders. In recent weeks, the relationship between moves in the dollar and stocks has been incredibly tight; as the dollar rises, stocks fall and vice versa.
And it isn't just stocks. Links between the dollar, corporate bonds, energy prices and gold have grown closer. Traders and analysts point to one factor as the cause: the Federal Reserve's efforts to flood the financial markets with dollars.
NT
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market is temp. overbought on anemic volume. i'd expect to head lower going into the weekend.
just my opinion.
NT
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fed continues to punish the dollar. dow up 73 points.
complete unbridled insanity.
NT
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dollar down, market up.
if Fed takes action to strengthen the dollar, market will tank.
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i'm beginning to wipe my ass w/ 100's. cheaper than toilet paper.
NT
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market is temp. overbought on anemic volume. i'd expect to head lower going into the weekend.
just my opinion.
NT
Can't be right all the time, can we? :P
Earnings reports push stocks higher; Dow gains 73
Stocks rebound as earnings reports boost confidence about the pace of economic recovery
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
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Can't be right all the time, can we? :P
::)
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::)
Calm down "Ziggy", its not that serious. ::) Your little feelings are hurt every time I post. LOL
(http://www.mikescandywrappers.com/comics/ziggy6_18_01.gif)
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Can't be right all the time, can we? :P
no argument here. ;)
NT
Market Top
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
Market Bottom
with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a bear market rally in the very near future.
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no argument here. ;)
NT
Market Top
Market Bottom
You, me and about 500,000 others made those predictions bro. Hell, you didn't even have to have been in the business. Just been a layman reading Krugman. That freight train was barreling down the tracks and everyone that deemed to listen could hear it coming.
You've definitely shown to be very good at spotting potential short term (3 month)outcomes seemingly utilizing a primarily technical analysis approach(market trendline data,volume, mkt moving averages, etc.)
Its the predictions of the day-today market fluctuations that have the potential of venturing into silly season. Certainly it can be fun to make the attempt though. :) However, you and I both know TA is not going to give you more than an educated guess on how the DOW is going to land at the end of a given day.
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continue to follow UUP for market direction.
UUP up, market down.
UUP down, market up.
NT
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market is extremely overbought on declining volume. please use caution.
NT
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with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a bear market rally in the very near future.
the stock market rally that began in March is the largest in 71 years. as the market climbs higher volume continues to diminish and the dollar plunges lower. (ominous signs)
happy thanksgiving to all ! :D
NT
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Mostly i lurk around here. But this thread is one to check frequently. Good stuff.
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Not to say anything negative about Neurotoxin and his posts. Most people here seem to welcome him and his posts, but the title of this thread and Neurotoxin's original advice seems at this point inaccurate.
The Dow never did crash and neither did 401k. Anyone who believes there was a crash doesn't know what a crash really is.
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
Most middle and upper class Americans I know who aggressively invested their 401k and other portfolios in stocks did not touch their investments during this crisis. Some of them even bought more stocks while they were low. Though they saw their balance get very low at the beginning, now they see it slowly recovering and close to where it was before the crisis. Warren Buffet converted almost his entire portfolio to stocks during this crisis.
Those who pulled their money out of stocks and moved it into CDs, Cash, Money Markets, etc., will have missed a great investment opportunity here. But those who did not panic and left their money in stocks or even put more money into stocks will see great gains as the economy recovers.
I'm not saying that the Dow won't crash in the future or that people will not lose their 401k. Nobody knows. But the title of this thread, the predictions and the original advice all posted in 2007 seems inaccurate at this point. It just did not come to pass. And I feel sorry for anyone who panicked and pulled their money out of stocks.
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Upper-income consumers gloomy on economy
Dec. 2, 2009
(MarketWatch) -- High-net-worth individuals showed the biggest decline in economic confidence in November, according to a monthly survey released Wednesday by credit-card issuer Discover Financial Services. Overall, 59% of consumers graded the economy as poor, up from 56% in October, while 55% of upper-income consumers rated the economy as poor. November was the first month since July that a majority of that group rated the economy as poor, and the percentage jumped 8 points from October. "With spending among upper-income consumers as a key indicator in determining the success of a holiday shopping season, this may be a concern to retailers who were hoping this income group could improve their holiday sales from a year ago," Discover said.
expect additional retail store closings if holiday season receipts mirror last year. if so, commercial real estate could be next in line to collapse.
jmo.
NT
Neuro - I posted a clip by Howard davidowitz about this.
Around NYC, there is tons of vacant commercial space.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/381751/Howard-Davidowitz's-Winners-of-the-Retail-Apocalypse
http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-howard-davidowitz-we-are-on-a-death-march-we-are-japan-2009-12
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neuro - here is the clip I referenced:
http://www.businessinsider.com/recovery-are-you-kidding-me-us-consumer-is-dramatically-worse-2009-12
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33 - you can't compare Japan and US just on these financial issues alone.
Japan has some very unique social issues to deal with which prevented any real recovery.
I'm not saying the US isn't fucked. Just that Japan had much more to deal with than their banks being a bit frisky on the loan side...
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33 - you can't compare Japan and US just on these financial issues alone.
Japan has some very unique social issues to deal with which prevented any real recovery.
I'm not saying the US isn't fucked. Just that Japan had much more to deal with than their banks being a bit frisky on the loan side...
I wasnt, just that this guy is pretty entertaining. His points about the fiscal situation are right on though.
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Arming Goldman With Pistols Against Public
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- “I just wrote my first reference for a gun permit,” said a friend, who told me of swearing to the good character of a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker who applied to the local police for a permit to buy a pistol. The banker had told this friend of mine that senior Goldman people have loaded up on firearms and are now equipped to defend themselves if there is a populist uprising against the bank.
I called Goldman Sachs spokesman Lucas van Praag to ask whether it’s true that Goldman partners feel they need handguns to protect themselves from the angry proletariat. He didn’t call me back.
very interesting...
NT
BWHAHahahahahaha...
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Arming Goldman With Pistols Against Public
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- “I just wrote my first reference for a gun permit,” said a friend, who told me of swearing to the good character of a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. banker who applied to the local police for a permit to buy a pistol. The banker had told this friend of mine that senior Goldman people have loaded up on firearms and are now equipped to defend themselves if there is a populist uprising against the bank.
I called Goldman Sachs spokesman Lucas van Praag to ask whether it’s true that Goldman partners feel they need handguns to protect themselves from the angry proletariat. He didn’t call me back.
very interesting...
NT
My cousin works on Wall Street and this weekend he for the first time was asking me about where to get rifles, guns, etc. He said everyone knows that this whole mess is going to get very ugly.
Whats also funny is that he said that he no longer thinks I'm crazy. I simply said "Welcome to the VRWC Cuz."
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Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Service industries in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in November as companies lost confidence the recovery will gather strength.
________________________ ____________
I hate that word "unexpectedly". I 100% percent expect this to continue.
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Dollar strengthens. gold takes a beating, commodities take a beating. the stock market takes a beating. interest rate "tightening" rears its head. etc etc
That was the case until Berhnake openend his mouth on some expertly timed comments that seemed to completely alter the course of the market as it was...his comments seemed well rehearesed like they were meant to just what they did.
Strange, very strange.
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Dollar strengthens. gold takes a beating, commodities take a beating. the stock market takes a beating. interest rate "tightening" rears its head. etc etc
That was the case until Berhnake openend his mouth on some expertly timed comments that seemed to completely alter the course of the market as it was...his comments seemed well rehearesed like they were meant to just what they did.
Strange, very strange.
I just read on bloomberg that japan is doing a new stim bill cuz their recovery is faltering. Bernake also made crytpic remarks signaling the same thing.
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For Natural Gas, I'd avoid UNG & GAZ ETFs as the CTFC is looking to close them down as they represent such a large percentage of the natural gas futures markets.
Also -we have been in Contango with Natural Gas futures contracts and as UNG buys the near team contracts, the rollovers cost them dearly.
FCG is an ETF that invests in natural gas companies which in my opinion is a better play.
Long term though - there is serious oversupply with natural gas inventories building and more gas rigs coming on line to take advantage of the recent price rises. At some point there is the very real chance that the producers are told to stop producing as storage is nearing capacity.
Saying that - the last time GAS Prices dipped below $4.50 ($4.382 to be precise) at the start of Septembe, they took a run up to a little over $6 and there was money to be made in UNG, GAZ & FCG.
This time, I'm not getting in because the supply situation is so much worse despite the increased winter use.
BTW - Great thread. I've learnt a few things here !
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The great Bush 'deregulation' myth
by Jeff Jacoby
WE'VE HEARD IT again and again: The financial crisis was caused by the Bush administration's reckless plunge into deregulation.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, for example, blames the mess on "the Bush administration's eight long years of failed deregulation policies." Billionaire investor George Soros declares that "excessive deregulation is at the root of the current crisis." Nouriel Roubini, the widely-quoted New York University economist, pins it on "these Bush hypocrites, who spewed for years the glory of unfettered Wild West laissez-faire jungle capitalism." A New York Times editorial pronounces the American financial system "the victim of decades of Republican deregulatory and anti-tax policies."
President Jimmy Carter attributes it to the "atrocious economic policies of the Bush administration," particularly "deregulation and . . . a withdrawal of supervision of Wall Street."
That's also Barack Obama's view. "The biggest problem in this whole process was the deregulation of the financial system," Obama said last month. He called the present troubles "a final verdict on the failed economic policies of the last eight years . . . that essentially said that we should strip away regulations, consumer protections, let the market run wild, and prosperity would rain down on all of us."
Deregulators run amok undoubtedly make a flamboyant culprit. But do they exist? Should we really be taking seriously the claim that the past eight years have been characterized by letting "the market run wild"?
Granted, there has been significant recent legislation easing financial restrictions. Most often mentioned is the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which, as The New York Times described it on Monday, "removed barriers between commercial and investment banks that had been instituted to reduce the risk of economic catastrophes." Some argue that the law, which allowed traditional banks and investment firms to be affiliated under one holding company, helped bring on the credit meltdown. Even if true, how was that George W. Bush's fault? The law was signed by President Bill Clinton in 1999, after being passed by lopsided majorities in both houses of Congress.
President Bill Clinton after signing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999. The law partially deregulated the securities industry. (Photo: Justin Lane/The New York Times)
Gramm-Leach-Bliley's lead sponsors were Republicans, but the 34 Democratic senators who voted for the bill surely weren't scheming to "let the market run wild." Ditto the 151 Democrats -- among them future Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- who voted for the measure in the House. Then-Treasury Secretary (and current Obama adviser) Larry Summers didn't denounce the bill as "laissez-faire jungle capitalism" -- he praised it for "promoting financial innovation, lower capital costs, and greater international competitiveness." Clinton himself defends the law to this day.
Now, this is not to say that Bush hasn't also been responsible for legislation having a decided impact on the country's regulatory climate. On July 31, 2002, declaring that free markets must not be "a financial free-for-all guided only by greed," he signed the Sarbanes-Oxley law, a sweeping overhaul of corporate fraud, securities, and accounting laws. Among its many tough provisions, the law created a new regulatory agency to oversee public accounting firms and auditors, and imposed an array of new requirements for financial reporting and corporate audits. Whatever else might be said about Sarbanes-Oxley, it was no invitation to an uninhibited capitalist bacchanal.
Like the alligators lurking in New York City sewers, Bush's massive regulatory rollback is mostly urban legend. Far from throwing out the rulebook, the administration has expanded it: Since Bush became president, the Federal Register -- the government's annual compendium of proposed and finalized regulations -- has run to more than 74,000 pages every year but one. During the Clinton years, by contrast, the Federal Register reached that length just once.
Similarly, the administration has broken every previous record for regulatory agency spending. According to researchers at Washington University and George Mason University, appropriations for federal regulatory functions have soared during the Bush years. Adjusting for inflation, the regulatory budget has grown from $25 billion in fiscal year 2000 to an estimated $43 billion in FY 2009 -- a 70 percent increase. "In constant dollars," writes James Freeman in the Wall Street Journal, "the Bush regulatory budget increases vastly exceed those of predecessors Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, and, yes, Lyndon Johnson." Staffing has skyrocketed, too. Regulatory agencies employed 175,000 people in 2000. They employ nearly 264,000 today. (Some of that reflects the Transportation Security Administration's takeover of airport security screening in 2003.)
Amid the stress and storm of the financial crisis, "deregulation" makes a convenient villain. But the facts tell a different story: The nation's regulatory burden has grown heavier, not lighter, since Bush entered the White House. Too little government wasn't what made the economy sick. Too much government isn't going to make it better.
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As another poster in another site stated:
The "Clintonesque Boom" of the 90s had more to do with productivity gains spurred by private investments in emerging technologies in the 80s, fostered by Reagan-era tax incentives?...that the deregulation of the banking industry (aka, repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the Commodity Futures Modernization Act) that created this mess occurred under Clinton?...that the expansion of home ownership into lower economic stratas and foregoing traditional lending requirements originated with the Community Reinvestment Act signed and championed by Jimmy Carter?
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guys, momentum continues to the downside. right now the highest probability is the S&P testing the 50dma in the coming days. a breakout above 1120 seems highly unlikely at this point.
Well - whichever way it breaks, making money will be a lot easier (for me anyway) when it does.
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please no politics in this thread.
thanks in advance.
NT
I was going to split them and start a new thread, but considering the thread is started with political accusations, I think he has a right to respond to them here. He was positive in his posts so it's all good imo.
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please no politics in this thread.
thanks in advance.
NT
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
I agree with Hugo!
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Almost 47,000 veiws. :o
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NT what do you think about currencies??
you think the US dollar carry trade is officially dead?
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Dec. 10, 2009
Natural gas surges after EIA inventories
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Natural gas futures surged nearly 7% Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a decline in U.S. inventories that was more than expected. Natural gas stockpiles fell for the first time in nine months, down 64 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 5.
NT
Just in time for winter when we have to purchase fuel to heat homes. How freaking convenient.
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Just in time for winter when we have to purchase fuel to heat homes. How freaking convenient.
Yes - that pesky supply and demand, eh ? ::)
Are you suggesting that there should not be futures markets for commodities or perhaps that they should exist but shouldn't be based on supply and demand ?
Also - are you aware of how futures prices effect you personally ? Are you allowed to chose your own provider of natural gas ? Do you choose one that locks in low prices ahead of time by buying futures ?
Don't go seeing conspiracies everywhere - there isn't one here IMO.
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Yes - that pesky supply and demand, eh ? ::)
Are you suggesting that there should not be futures markets for commodities or perhaps that they should exist but shouldn't be based on supply and demand ?
Also - are you aware of how futures prices effect you personally ? Are you allowed to chose your own provider of natural gas ? Do you choose one that locks in low prices ahead of time by buying futures ?
Don't go seeing conspiracies everywhere - there isn't one here IMO.
I understand stock index futures pretty well, e-mini's etc.
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friday's jobs number was a farce. WS's reaction? selloff the intraday rally that followed such a spurious number.
continue to follow UUP for market direction.
NT
be careful what you recommend...
that UUP = symbol for PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
Don't worry i got your back Holmes.
I believe that ETF uses currency futures to achieve it's objective. I haven't read the prospectus..However, it pretty objective the fund is to be long the dollars.
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thankfully it hasnt crashed yet. just had a meeting with the financial planner; for 9 months of this year have earned a 42% return on investments (stocks).
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thankfully it hasnt crashed yet. just had a meeting with the financial planner; for 9 months of this year have earned a 42% return on investments (stocks).
Exactly!
Not to say anything negative about Neurotoxin and his posts. Most people here seem to welcome him and his posts, but the title of this thread and Neurotoxin's original advice seems at this point inaccurate.
The Dow never did crash and neither did 401k. Anyone who believes there was a crash doesn't know what a crash really is.
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
Most middle and upper class Americans I know who aggressively invested their 401k and other portfolios in stocks did not touch their investments during this crisis. Some of them even bought more stocks while they were low. Though they saw their balance get very low at the beginning, now they see it slowly recovering and close to where it was before the crisis. Warren Buffet converted almost his entire portfolio to stocks during this crisis.
Those who pulled their money out of stocks and moved it into CDs, Cash, Money Markets, etc., will have missed a great investment opportunity here. But those who did not panic and left their money in stocks or even put more money into stocks will see great gains as the economy recovers.
I'm not saying that the Dow won't crash in the future or that people will not lose their 401k. Nobody knows. But the title of this thread, the predictions and the original advice all posted in 2007 seems inaccurate at this point. It just did not come to pass. And I feel sorry for anyone who panicked and pulled their money out of stocks.
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please no politics in this thread.
thanks in advance.
NT
You were wrong in blaming ONLY Bush, fool.
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end of year: 42% gain from last year in my stock portfolio. let's hear it for REITs
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end of year: 42% gain from last year in my stock portfolio. let's hear it for REITs
lol
Indeed, REITs were good to me too in '09. :)
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i anticipate a double dip recession.
a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.
NT
You still comfortable with this assessment, Neuro?
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market continues to exhibit weakness on advancing volume. momentum to the downside.
S&P 1085 -1120 remains intact, but should be treated with suspicion. next downside support @ 1070
testing psychological Dow 10,000 seems highly probable
exercise caution
-NT
Welcome back!
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opinion unchanged
-NT
Just great!
Ammo, Guns, Dehydrated foods, etc.
Buckle Up boys!
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Stocks slammed; investors rethink global recovery
(MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks on Thursday took their worst single-day hit in eight months, with investor sentiment battered by European debt and worries about the global recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 268.37 points, or 2.6%, to 10,002.18, its worst daily loss since April 20, 2009. The Dow had lapsed under 10,000 just ahead of the close, its first lapse under that level since early November. The S&P 500 Index fell 34.17 points, or 3.1%, to 1,063.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 65.48 points, or 3%, to 2,125.43.
There is no recovery! This has been nothing more than a sham by the government telling lies to the public 24/7!
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The government is being forced tommorow to admit that we lost nearly 1 Million more jobs in 2009 than they initially reported.
You call that a recovery?
My stocks have increased in value by over 100K from their low although they still have a ways to go to get back to their high. I call that a definite recovery in process.
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My stocks have increased in value by over 100K from their low although they still have a ways to go to get back to their high. I call that a definite recovery in process.
The stock market is the not the economy. You need to look at UE, tax receipts, local govt tax receipts, exports, and other barometers as well.
The stock market itself has been supported by the Fed Reserve, not strength on underlying fundamentals or increasing baseline earnings of companies.
The only profits from these companies have come from cutting costs, not increased revenues.
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IMF to the rescue. I feel better already. ::)
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So when is the Dow crash really coming to your 401k? We've been waiting since 2007.
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lol? it already happened.
When? I know lots of Americans who left their 401k alone and they are doing fine. Others actually put more money into it when stocks were low and actually made money.
Is that what you call a crash?
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When? I know lots of Americans who left their 401k alone and they are doing fine. Others actually put more money into it when stock were low and actually made money.
Is that what you call a crash?
Look at most local and state pensions who were invested in the market vs the tax receipts. Most are still massively down.
We have a massive disaster on our hands and the idiots at all levels of govt keep lying about our situation.
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I dunno, some would call an average 25% loss in value a crash. Several people said Neuro called it right. I don't know how you can say it's not a crash but I guess call it what you want. Neuro didn't say nobody would recover or everyone would lose.
So it all depends on how each individual defines a "crash"?
Here is what Neuro said.
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
I'm no expert, but many people I know would call this advice foolish and dangerous. They are the same people who did not touch their 401K stock investments or actually bought more stocks and now they are doing just fine.
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yeaaaa ok thanks..... How far do you think I have to search to find an expert who calls it a crash too?... uh huh.... That was your orginal question, when is it going to happen... I know you tried to expand it on but your orginal note was that it didn't even happen...
I consider the people I mentioned experts. And they either did nothing to their 401K stock investments or they actually bought more stocks. Did they kiss their money good bye? No. They actually made money. Is this what you call a "crash to your 401K"?
I'm still asking, when is this "crash" going to happen to your 401K?
Based on your response, does it all depend on how each individual defines a "crash"?
Did you follow Neuro's advice about your 401K? I hope you didn't for your own sake.
Do you consider Warren Buffett an expert? In 2008 he converted almost his entire portfolio to stocks.
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wait, are you actually saying we didn't just go through a crash, a crash that we haven't made it entirely out of and may be going into a second phase of? Are you actually saying what we saw in 2008, what is recorded as reducing 401K's on average by 25% should not be considered any sort of a crash? Is that really what you're saying? Ok, fine, I'm not going to fight you over it. Some people's loses are not as important as others. To each their own... If that's your position, fine, I understand. But on the same hand I'm not about to scold someone that they didn't actually take a huge hit in their 401K when they say they did... Obviously the data is there to show many many did....
Way to avoid my questions, Hugo! How about you answer my questions?
I consider the people I mentioned experts. And they either did nothing to their 401K stock investments or they actually bought more stocks. Did they kiss their money good bye? No. They actually made money. Is this what you call a "crash to your 401K"?
I'm still asking, when is this "crash" going to happen to your 401K?
Based on your response, does it all depend on how each individual defines a "crash"?
Did you follow Neuro's advice about your 401K? I hope you didn't for your own sake.
Do you consider Warren Buffett an expert? In 2008 he converted almost his entire portfolio to stocks.
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i anticipate a double dip recession.
a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.
NT
What's the latest on this prognostication 3 months on, Neuro?
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i anticipate a double dip recession.
a test of March lows should occur in the coming months.
NT
Neuro, what do you say about this assessment today? It has been four and one-half months and you are 4100+ points off.
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bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
cash is king !
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
Dow closes above 11,000 for first time since ’08
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36413829/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/
So when is the Dow crash really coming to your 401k? We've been waiting since 2007.
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I've fallen (hard)... and I can't get up! :'(
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(http://nzmigration.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/im-waiting.jpg)
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how you doing now scumbag?
What are you babbling about now, PEA BRAIN? *yawn*
Are you suggesting that Neuro was predicting the Euroland contagion? Or today's likely fat finger error? ::)
Mar 2, 2009
6,626.94
May 6, 2010
10,520.32
You should really stick to subject matter you are familiar with, PEA BRAIN.
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I've fallen (hard)... and I can't get up! :'(
What do you mean, Bay? Did you lose all your money?
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What are you babbling about now, PEA BRAIN? *yawn*
Are you suggesting that Neuro was predicting the Euroland contagion? Or today's likely fat finger error? ::)
Mar 2, 2009
6,626.94
May 6, 2010
10,520.32
You should really stick to subject matter you are familiar with, PEA BRAIN.
Don't tell me you didnt know it's Obama's fault! >:( ;D
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Obviously an error made by someone else wasnt Obamas fault.However,its funny to see libs give Obama praise for the markets doing well,but ripping Bush when they were at 14,000.Then it had NOTHING to do with Bush,but when it went down,it was Bushs' fault.The market goes up with Obama,its because of Obama,it drops thois ENTIRE week and its Bushs' fault.
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Obviously an error made by someone else wasnt Obamas fault.However,its funny to see libs give Obama praise for the markets doing well,but ripping Bush when they were at 14,000.Then it had NOTHING to do with Bush,but when it went down,it was Bushs' fault.The market goes up with Obama,its because of Obama,it drops thois ENTIRE week and its Bushs' fault.
I don't think that's entirely true. maybe after the market crashed people started talking about it.
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Yet we cant bash obama when things go bad under his watch like UE spiking?
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What do you mean, Bay? Did you lose all your money?
Feels like it! :'(
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Obviously an error made by someone else wasnt Obamas fault.However,its funny to see libs give Obama praise for the markets doing well,but ripping Bush when they were at 14,000.Then it had NOTHING to do with Bush,but when it went down,it was Bushs' fault.The market goes up with Obama,its because of Obama,it drops thois ENTIRE week and its Bushs' fault.
Who said that whenever the market goes up it's "because of Obama?"
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Yet we cant bash obama when things go bad under his watch like UE spiking?
You're free to do whatever you want
(http://static.businessinsider.com/image/4bb614577f8b9a1667ae0100/chart-020510-update.gif)
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With Benny Blanco now providing Stock Market 'information' to GBers, I'll assume this is old news.
-NT
I
lol gee thanks. ;)
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Benny was calling for a crash in gold.
Enough said.
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May 6, 2010: 7:36 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In one of the most gut-wrenching hours in Wall Street history, the Dow plunged almost 1,000 points Thursday before recovering to close down 348, as erroneous trading in Procter & Gamble and several other stocks sparked a massive selloff.
Fears about the spread of the European debt crisis dragged on stocks through the early afternoon. But the selling picked up in intensity and the Dow reached its nadir at around 2:40 p.m. ET.
=====================================================================================
Guys this is what happens when a Market with no investment merit at current valuations runs out of speculative fuel.
When governments and central banks manufacture the illusion of an economic recovery driven by deficit spending and money printing, the faith in the sustainability of that recovery is not surprisingly weak.
With Benny Blanco now providing Stock Market 'information' to GBers, I'll assume this is old news.
Off to the Hamptons...have a great weekend!
-NT
"Speculative fuel?" "Printing money?" ???
Not sure how you derive your opinions, but they are pretty much nonsensical.
Have fun in the Hamptons! :-\
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I
lol gee thanks. ;)
How'd taking Neuro's market crash prediction work out for that portfolio of yours? :-\
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The only thing you trade is tricks for cash in the mens room at truck stops.
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Ha ha ha.
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Yeah, I traded a 5 dollar bill for a hummer from your motha.
Wow Ziggy, that was priceless. You feeling particularly depressed tonight, sweety? :-\
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Do much "trading" today Benny? ::)
It'll be okay BD, one day you'll be like me instead of a wannabe! :-\
(http://joshreads.com/images/07/08/i070823ziggy.png)
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Benny - how is that crash in gold working out?
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Benny - how is that crash in gold working out?
What crash was that?
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You and nicky called for a crash in gold remember?
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You and nicky called for a crash in gold remember?
Errr...no, honestly I don't. Sorry.
I can tell you that some of my colleagues I've spoken to are planning to short gold, believing that we're going to see a big sell off on the commodity down to as low as $800/ounce. I'm not too sure about that, but I was on a conference call with Barclays Wealth Wednesday and their VP strategist is making that recommendation. Just a little inside baseball for ya. ;)
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Errr...no, honestly I don't. Sorry.
I can tell you that some of my colleagues I've spoken to are planning to short gold, believing that we're going to see a big sell off on the commodity down to as low as $800/ounce. I'm not too sure about that, but I was on a conference call with Barclays Wealth Wednesday and their VP strategist is making that recommendation. Just a little inside baseball for ya. ;)
I'd hang on to gold but hell ithought silver would be much higher by now so who can be sure I still wouldn't sell off gold especially if u r in cheap
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I'd hang on to gold but hell ithought silver would be much higher by now so who can be sure I still wouldn't sell off gold especially if u r in cheap
You guys have to realize (all jokes aside) that I talk to 15-25 different traders, strategists, and analysts per week at a minimum. As a strat guy myself I am reading EVERYTHING. So when a guy like Neuro makes statements that are out in left field and way out there from what the rest of the investment community is saying, I have to call him on it. And he knows I will, which is why he runs away when I get specific in my challenges.
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Errr...no, honestly I don't. Sorry.
I can tell you that some of my colleagues I've spoken to are planning to short gold, believing that we're going to see a big sell off on the commodity down to as low as $800/ounce. I'm not too sure about that, but I was on a conference call with Barclays Wealth Wednesday and their VP strategist is making that recommendation. Just a little inside baseball for ya. ;)
From this - would I be right in saying you are a financial advisor and make your living off commissions on the funds you sell ?
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(**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
fellas, this is the only thread that is strickly moderated. Keep it a little more civil please. You have the whole rest of the political board to bitch slap eachother.
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From this - would I be right in saying you are a financial advisor and make your living off commissions on the funds you sell ?
No, I am not an FA. My job is more research oriented.
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No, I am not an FA. My job is more research oriented.
OK - before I go any further, let me state for the record that I am a profitable day trader. As a day trader, I do not, nor do I need to know where the market is going long term.
I do also put on longer term trades and in these trades I do attempt to know where certain sectors of the market are going for the next few months. I never advise anyone on what to do - it's their money, not mine. Note that on this side, I am in cash right now and have been since Goldman/SEC day.
Now Benny - my opinion is that most people that work in the investment industry cannot trade for a living. If they could - they would not have employers. My opinion is also that people that work in the investment industry will point people towards whatever increases their bonus or commissions.
Of course - you can say that this is unfair and I will certainly listen to your arguments against the above.
So, before we listen to any more from you, I think it is fair that we ask for you to give us an idea of what biases you may have.
Can you tell answer the following:
1 - what do you do for a living ? be specific.
2- do you get paid on the basis of investors making more profit or on fund managers giving you a commission ? Or other ?
3 - do you personally invest in the products that you work with ?
4 - what is your annual percentage return over the past 3 years ?
I think these are fair questions considering the seriousness of the domain in which we are holding a discusison.
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OK - before I go any further, let me state for the record that I am a profitable day trader. As a day trader, I do not, nor do I need to know where the market is going long term.
I do also put on longer term trades and in these trades I do attempt to know where certain sectors of the market are going for the next few months. I never advise anyone on what to do - it's their money, not mine. Note that on this side, I am in cash right now and have been since Goldman/SEC day.
Now Benny - my opinion is that most people that work in the investment industry cannot trade for a living. If they could - they would not have employers. My opinion is also that people that work in the investment industry will point people towards whatever increases their bonus or commissions.
Of course - you can say that this is unfair and I will certainly listen to your arguments against the above.
So, before we listen to any more from you, I think it is fair that we ask for you to give us an idea of what biases you may have.
Can you tell answer the following:
1 - what do you do for a living ? be specific.
2- do you get paid on the basis of investors making more profit or on fund managers giving you a commission ? Or other ?
3 - do you personally invest in the products that you work with ?
4 - what is your annual percentage return over the past 3 years ?
I think these are fair questions considering the seriousness of the domain in which we are holding a discusison.
Biases? I don't provide much in the way of investment advice on this board. I've stated that many times. No desire to do so.
I am not going into detail regarding those questions. Sorry, Pedro. I would also state that there is not much in the way of seriousness in this discussion at all. Have you read some of the posts in this thread?
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Benny
Here's the rub - most people that work in the financial industry cannot trade or invest profitably.
This includes 99.9% of financial advisors, 99.9% of analysts and researchers,100% of the financial media and 99.9% of brokers. If you are one of those OR are taking advice from one of those, then you advice is about as much use as tits on a bull.
On the other hand, there are a number of people that can trade - some are in the industry and some just do it to make money for themselves.
My presumptions based on your posts is that you are part of the 99.9% and not one of the people that actually makes money directly from trading yourself.
The financial industry is just one big circle jerk. Anyone with any common sense will understand that trading is a minus-sum game.
Look at the industry - we have TV stations, newspapers, reporters, analysts, brokers, advisors etc. etc. Then we have the general public putting money into this big cash guzzling machine, somehow convinced that ALL of them can at some point take out more money than they put in.
Even if there wasn't a huge industry and huge salary bill to pay, it is impossible that everyone can put money in and take more money out. Profits have to come from somewhere and that is generally other people's losing trades.
The whole industry is basically paid from losing traders losses. That includes pensions, 401ks etc. The fact that people put their pensions into this without considering the fact that it's impossible for all pansion holders to take out more than they put in is a real shame.
Pedro
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You guys have to realize (all jokes aside) that I talk to 15-25 different traders, strategists, and analysts per week at a minimum. As a strat guy myself I am reading EVERYTHING. So when a guy like Neuro makes statements that are out in left field and way out there from what the rest of the investment community is saying, I have to call him on it. And he knows I will, which is why he runs away when I get specific in my challenges.
::)
Market Top
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
63% Market Crash
v
v
v
v
Market Bottom
with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a bear market rally in the very near future.
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So what do you feel now?
Benny calls for a crash in gold two months ago completely discredits him on every single level whatsoever.
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How'd taking Neuro's market crash prediction work out for that portfolio of yours? :-\
::)
Market Top
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
63% Market Crash
v
v
v
v
v
Market Bottom
with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a bear market rally in the very near future.
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Everyone, other than BitchFury knows Benny is a joke.
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Don't hold your breath waiting Neuro.
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Good reminder for me to buy more ammo and dried food today.
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i feel sorry for Benny Blanco and his band of 15-25 "analysts", "traders", "strategists" and "researchers"
reminds me of F Troop
-NT
Blanco is a fucking retard. Anyone that looked past the propaganda, the sleazy talking heads on CNBC, Krugman and anyone related to the Fed would see that this economy is still deep in recession and the market was artificially pushed up. Zero volume on the up and heavy volume on the way down.
That's not a good "indicator"
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you want to laugh Gigantor - every time that moronic muppet Krugman writes something in the NYT, all my lib "friends" on Facebook post it as if its gospel.
Utterly pathetic considering his awful track record.
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What happened to "keeping this thread clean"?
There are a LOT of buying opportunities right now....
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Yeah, like Guns, ammo, dry food, essentials, and farmable land.
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What happened to "keeping this thread clean"?
There are a LOT of buying opportunities right now....
Says the guy that was the first to insult most people in this thread. Get bent, Goldilocks.
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Get bent, Goldilocks.
I won't recover ::)
Have you had a chance to take the other guy's cock out of your month, think and invest for yourself or still fully salaried and living paycheck to paycheck?
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I won't recover ::)
Not with the face your mama gave you.
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I won't recover ::)
Have you had a chance to take the other guy's cock out of your month, think and invest for yourself or still fully salaried and living paycheck to paycheck?
So much for keeping this thread "clean".
-
Leading indicators slip 0.1 percent in April
AP ^ | May 21, 2010 | Tali Arbel
Posted on Friday, May 21, 2010 9:40:45 AM by C19fan
A private research group's gauge of future U.S. economic activity unexpectedly slipped in April, the first decline in more than a year and a sign that growth could slow this summer, weighing on hiring.
The Conference Board said Thursday its index of leading economic indicators edged down 0.1 percent last month, the first drop since March 2009. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a gain of 0.2 percent.
The index is designed to forecast economic activity in the next three to six months.
"Slower growth is likely in store for the second half of the year as the boost from inventories fades away," said Tim Quinlan, economist at Wells Fargo Securities, in a research note.
Goldman Sachs economists expect growth to slow to an annualized rate of 1.5 percent in the second half of the year from more than 3 percent in the first six months of 2010.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
________________________ ________________________ _
but but but but but but . . . . . . ..
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9835 as of now. Should be an interesting day.
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I am going to keep bumping Benny's thread.
We really are screwed IMHO.
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Dow finished the day above 10,000. Surprise, surprise. ::)
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Dow finished the day above 10,000. Surprise, surprise. ::)
Despite the fact all markets around the globe took a serious beating . ;)
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Despite the fact, still making profits.
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Dow finished the day above 10,000. Surprise, surprise. ::)
Call me a CT if you will but this whole thing reeks of direct ECB/Fed/Bank Trading Robots intervention.
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Market is temporarily oversold & holding Dow 10,000.
a short cover/bear market rally is now highly probable.
-NT
Looks like we're watching the same financial news cable channel....
::) ::)
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The Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A 'Virtual Certainty'
The Business Insider ^ | 5-27-2010 | Vincent Fernando, CFA
Posted on Thursday, May 27, 2010 10:13:46 AM by blam
The Worst Money Supply Plunge Since The Depression Means A Double Dip Is Now A 'Virtual Certainty'
Vincent Fernando, CFA
May 27, 2010, 3:18 AM
The stock of U.S. money as measured by 'M3' money supply fell to $13.9 trillion from $14.2 trillion during the three months ending in April.
This 9.6% annualized contraction is unprecedented in the post-Depression era, and shows how, in this sense, America isn't printing more money. There are actually less dollars in the system since U.S. money supply is crashing, even well into the recent economic recovery.
The positive take on this is that we don't have to worry about either inflation or the Fed tightening significantly any time soon.
The negative take is that this crashing money supply will lead to both deflation and a double dip recession:
Telegraph:
"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said.
...
Mr Congdon said the Obama policy risks repeating the strategic errors of Japan, which pushed debt to dangerously high levels with one fiscal boost after another during its Lost Decade, instead of resorting to full-blown "Friedmanite" monetary stimulus.
"Fiscal policy does not work. The US has just tried the biggest fiscal experiment in history and it has failed. What matters is the quantity of money and in extremis that can be increased easily by quantitative easing. If the Fed doesn’t act, a double-dip recession is a virtual certainty," he said.
The danger, critics such as Mr. Congdon say, is that Bernanke as a Keynesian
[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
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Thanks
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opinion unchanged.
-NT
Odds of a double dip are close to nil... unless what you're referring to involves a cock and your mouth.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/09/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm
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Odds of a double dip are close to nil... unless what you're referring to involves a cock and your mouth.
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/09/news/economy/double_dip_recession/index.htm
Yes, because CNN isn't the puppet of the liberal government or anything. We should definitely listen to what they have to say in regards to the economy.
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Yes, because CNN isn't the puppet of the liberal government or anything. We should definitely listen to what they have to say in regards to the economy.
David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, does not work for CNN. Maybe we should listen to "Emmortal" or "neurotoxin", as anonymous posters on a mesage board, their cred is much greater.
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Yeah but according to the "experts", huge trade deficits are good.
Anyway, this is the last pump to suck folks in before the big slide down in my humble opinion. Enjoy it while it lasts. Things should be very different in the next couple of months.
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Yeah but according to the "experts", huge trade deficits are good.
Anyway, this is the last pump to suck folks in before the big slide down in my humble opinion. Enjoy it while it lasts. Things should be very different in the next couple of months.
The local and state govts are next in having to massively lay people off, or declare municple bankruptcy. There is simply no way to keep spending like we are.
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Moments after this post gold went down dramatically.
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=250295
With gold and silver options expiry next week on the 28th the prices will now fall.
First they come in and naked short sell all the mining stocks as this is all paper and costs nothing. Traders see this and will start selling off the real physical and the hedge funds computers will kick in sell signals and they will dump their physical.
The raid happens every options expiry that I have been watching for the last 10 years!
Pay no attention to it and consider buying physical next Monday or Tuesday to get the best prices.
I always hope they will fail and some day they will - but today I would bet on a big decline for the next week..
Hang in there and keep buying and use this as a time to get more..
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Who knows where he is.
Anyways, with another downright awful employment report that was released today, there must be smoke coming out of the HFT's and steam coming out of the Fed Chairmans ears with all of the effort being put into manipulating the market up....and by up I mean above the 1040 resistance point. Anyone know the actual volume being traded on the Dow today? I'm willing to bet that it is nil with just a few robots and microchips slinging algorithims back and forth.
All that effort....
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Who knows where he is.
Anyways, with another downright awful employment report that was released today, there must be smoke coming out of the HFT's and steam coming out of the Fed Chairmans ears with all of the effort being put into manipulating the market up....and by up I mean above the 1040 resistance point. Anyone know the actual volume being traded on the Dow today? I'm willing to bet that it is nil with just a few robots and microchips slinging algorithims back and forth.
All that effort....
We should have taken the medicine in 2007 - 2008.
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Could the Dow Jones end between 3000-4000 by end of the year? That is 1980s levels. We will see.
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Benny is too busy cashing in from his call for a crash in gold prices a few months ago.
Oh wait . . . . . .
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Benny is too busy cashing in from his call for a crash in gold prices a few months ago.
Oh wait . . . . . .
At least he has a follower in Bezerkfury. According to him Benny schooled me and I shouldnt be showing my face around here anymore. Where is your hero now BF?
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UNFREAKING REAL.
________________________ ________________________ ____
Fed Made Taxpayers Unwitting Junk-Bond Buyers
By Caroline Salas, Craig Torres and Shannon D. Harrington - Jul 1, 2010
Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Caroline Salas discusses the credit quality of assets the government purchased in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. and the Federal Reserve's secrecy during the financial crisis. Salas speaks with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack." (Source: Bloomberg)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and then-New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators on April 3, 2008, that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.”
They didn’t share everything the Fed knew about the money.
The so-called assets included collateralized debt obligations and mortgage-backed bonds with names like HG-Coll Ltd. 2007-1A that were so distressed, more than $40 million already had been reduced to less than investment-grade by the time the central bankers testified. The government also became the owner of $16 billion of credit-default swaps, and taxpayers wound up guaranteeing high-yield, high-risk junk bonds.
By using its balance sheet to protect an investment bank against failure, the Fed took on the most credit risk in its 96- year history and increased the chance that Americans would be on the hook for billions of dollars as the central bank began insuring Wall Street firms against collapse. The Fed’s secrecy spurred legislation that will require government audits of the Fed bailouts and force the central bank to reveal recipients of emergency credit.
“Either the Fed did not understand the distressed state of some of the assets that it was purchasing from banks and is only now discovering their true value, or it understood that it was buying weak assets and attempted to obscure that fact,” Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat and member of the Senate Banking Committee, said in an e-mail when informed about the credit quality of holdings in the Maiden Lane LLC portfolio. The committee held the April 3 hearing.
Bear Stearns Purchase
Maiden Lane, named for a street bordering the New York Fed’s Manhattan headquarters, was created to hold the assets the central bank acquired to facilitate JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s purchase of Bear Stearns.
The Fed disclosed the Maiden Lane holdings in March after Bloomberg News went to court using the Freedom of Information Act, and the U.S. District Court in New York held that the Fed should release documents related to Bloomberg’s request.
“The Federal Reserve was not straightforward with the American people regarding the risks they were taking with taxpayer money, despite my efforts to obtain such clarity at the time,” U.S. Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, the Senate Banking Committee’s top Republican, told Bloomberg News. “It is apparent that the Fed withheld from the Congress and the public material information about the condition of these securities.”
Downgraded to Junk
When Bernanke and Geithner testified in April 2008, $42 million of the CDO securities the Fed would eventually buy had been downgraded to junk, data compiled by Bloomberg show. By the time the central bank funded its $28.8 billion loan to Maiden Lane 12 weeks later, about $172 million of such securities the Fed purchased were rated below investment grade, according to data compiled for Bloomberg by Red Pine Advisors LLC, a New York firm specializing in the valuation of complex, illiquid securities.
CDOs bundle assets ranging from mortgage bonds to high- yield loans and divide them into new slices, or tranches, of varying risks. High-yield, or junk, bonds are those rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.
“As was noted in testimony, all of the cash securities in the Maiden Lane portfolio were investment grade on March 14, 2008, when the deal was agreed to in order to facilitate the acquisition of Bear Stearns and to prevent the systemic consequences of its sudden and disorderly failure,” Michelle Smith, a spokeswoman for the Fed’s Board of Governors, said in an e-mail.
Recover Principal
“The Federal Reserve considered not just credit-rating valuations, which have varied some over time based on economic conditions, but also relied on a separate assessment from an independent investment firm, which advised us that over time, we would likely fully recover our principal and interest,” Smith said. “We continue to expect the loan to Maiden Lane to be fully repaid.”
The Fed valued the loan at $27 billion as of the end of last year, $1.8 billion below the amount that was funded in 2008, according to financial statements audited by Deloitte & Touche LLP.
More than 88 percent of Maiden Lane’s CDO bonds and 78 percent of its non-agency residential mortgage-backed debt are now speculative grade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on holdings as of Jan. 29.
Securities, Derivatives
The nonagency home-loan bonds and CDO securities made up about 44 percent of the $74.9 billion in face amount of Maiden Lane’s assets, Fed data show. Maiden Lane also contains commercial real-estate loans and other mortgage debt. The central bank hasn’t released how or at what prices it has valued the securities and derivatives, which are contracts whose values are tied to assets, including stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, or events such as changes in interest rates or the weather.
Being “investment grade” was a requirement for Maiden Lane’s bonds even after Bernanke and Geithner publicly criticized inflated ratings for helping to cause the financial crisis.
“The complexity of structured credit products, as well as the difficulty of determining the values of some of the underlying assets, led many investors to rely heavily on the evaluations of these products by credit-rating agencies,” Bernanke said in a January 10, 2008, speech in Washington. “However, as subprime-mortgage losses rose to levels that threatened even highly rated tranches, investors began to question the reliability of the credit ratings and became increasingly unwilling to hold these products.”
Princeton, Dartmouth
Members of Congress pressed Bernanke, who received a doctorate in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and served as chairman of Princeton University’s economics department, and Geithner, a Dartmouth College graduate who earned a master’s degree in economics and East Asian studies from Johns Hopkins University, about the quality of the assets during the April Bear Stearns hearings.
“You’ve got about $30 billion of collateral. And some comments have been made that you feel comfortable because it’s highly rated,” Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat, told Bernanke, according to a transcript. “But a lot of highly rated collateral these days is being subject to questions.”
“Senator, as was mentioned, it is all investment-grade or current performing assets,” Bernanke responded. “We do not know for sure what will transpire,” he said. “But we have engaged an independent investment-advisory firm who gives us reasonable comfort that if we can sell these assets over a period of time that we will recover principal and interest for the American taxpayer.”
Chances for Loss
When asked by Shelby during the hearing what the chances were for a loss, Robert Steel, then the U.S. Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, said the transaction “was $30 billion, approximately, of collateral, all investment-grade securities, all of them current in interest and principal.”
Steel, who was named deputy mayor for economic development last month by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, declined to comment through Andrew Brent, a spokesman for the mayor’s office. The mayor is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.
Bernanke and Geithner didn’t detail during the hearing that the Fed would expose itself to below-investment-grade assets through credit derivatives it was also acquiring. The $16 billion of credit-default swaps included bets protecting some junk-rated asset-backed securities against default, according to two people familiar with the agreement who declined to be identified because the terms weren’t made public.
‘Related Hedges’
The Fed hasn’t disclosed how much was tied to below- investment-grade debt. Geithner, who is now Treasury secretary, said in an addendum to the text of his remarks only that the Fed was assuming “related hedges,” without elaborating.
Credit-default swaps are used to hedge against losses or to speculate on creditworthiness. The derivatives pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt.
“I strongly object to the mischaracterization of the portfolio,” Sylvain Raynes, a principal at R&R Consulting in New York, said in an interview. “The ratings that were purportedly investment-grade had long lost their utility” and to call several billion dollars of derivatives “related hedges” is “nonsense” and a “material omission.”
So-called hedges aren’t without risk, said Raynes, who is also co-author of “Elements of Structured Finance,” which was published in May by Oxford University Press. “You can be on the wrong side of a hedge, by definition. Which side are they on?”
Shrinking Holdings
Maiden Lane has been unwinding its credit-default swaps, according to the people familiar with the agreement. The holdings shrank to a face amount of $11.8 billion in December 2008 and $7.3 billion at the end of last year, according to its financial statements.
Of the $7.3 billion, $2.45 billion were contracts guaranteeing debt against default, including $2.1 billion of junk-rated securities. The bank valued the credit swaps it sold at a $1.8 billion loss, according to the 2009 statement.
Overall, Maiden Lane assumed more bets against securities than for them, the people familiar with the agreement said. The market value of its entire swaps book, including more than $3 billion of interest-rate contracts, was $1.13 billion as of Dec. 31, 2009, according to year-end financial statements.
The Senate Banking Committee also called JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon to testify on the Bear Stearns deal on April 3, 2008.
Riskier, More Complex
“The assets taken by the Fed consist entirely of loans that are current and rated investment grade,” Dimon said, according to a transcript. “We kept the riskier and more complex securities in the Bear Stearns portfolio for our own account. We did not cherry-pick the assets in the collateral pool.”
If the Fed hadn’t engineered the takeover, “the consequences could have been disastrous,” Dimon said.
JPMorgan didn’t pick the individual securities for Maiden Lane, Geithner said in an annex to his April 2008 testimony. Instead, it selected groups of assets that met criteria set by the central bank, and the Fed and its adviser, New York-based BlackRock Inc., reviewed those assets, according to one of the people familiar with the agreement. As part of the bailout, JPMorgan agreed to absorb the first $1 billion in losses.
Assets, Liabilities
JPMorgan had to weigh how many real-estate assets it could absorb against its existing inventory, Dimon said, adding that the New York-based company acquired about $360 billion of Bear Stearns assets and liabilities in the transaction.
JPMorgan spokesman Justin Perras declined to comment further on Maiden Lane.
“We certainly had doubts at the time: Why wouldn’t JPMorgan want a bunch of AAA assets?” said Mark Calabria, a former Senate Banking Committee staff member who was present at the April 2008 hearings and is now director of financial- regulation studies at the Cato Institute in Washington. “The answer is it was all borderline junk.”
The average CDO security was cut 7.6 grades by Moody’s and 7.3 levels by S&P in the 22 months between the time the Fed funded the loan and April 2010, according to Red Pine.
“That is quite steep,” said Wade Vandegrift, a Red Pine partner. “The default rates and the delinquency rates of these deals were a significant multiple of even the worst-case projections that rating agencies and other people projected.”
Foreclosed Loans
WaMu Asset-Backed Certificates Series 2007-HE1 M2, a $4.1 million mortgage-bond position the Fed acquired, was backed by home loans originated by the subprime-lending unit of Washington Mutual Inc., the Seattle-based thrift that went bankrupt in September 2008. As of March 2008, the month Bear Stearns collapsed, more than 26 percent of the loans were at least 60 days late, in foreclosure or the properties had already been seized, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Three weeks after the Fed agreed to the Bear Stearns rescue and four days after Bernanke’s April testimony, Moody’s cut the security to junk. S&P followed a month later and now rates it D.
“It is hardly surprising or particularly newsworthy that the value of” the Maiden Lane “portfolio deteriorated in the midst of the worst financial crisis in generations, but it is unlikely that the taxpayers will lose a dime on the government’s loan,” Treasury spokesman Andrew Williams said in an e-mail. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Fed will make $200 million on Maiden Lane from inception through 2020.
Demanding Accountability
Billions of dollars in Fed loans -- some possibly involving subsidies for the biggest banks and corporations -- remain secret, and Congress is demanding more accountability from the Fed than at any time in its history.
House and Senate negotiators agreed on the sweeping Dodd- Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act last week, which requires the Government Accountability Office to audit the Fed’s emergency loans and forces the Fed to reveal recipients of such credit by Dec. 1. The House approved the measure 237-192 yesterday. It awaits approval by the Senate and will then go to President Barack Obama for his signature.
Vermont Senator Bernard Sanders wrote the legislation requiring an audit of Maiden Lane and other credit facilities. The act also would make it more difficult for the Fed to provide emergency loans in the future.
“We need to lift the veil of secrecy at the Federal Reserve,” Sanders, an independent, told Bloomberg News when informed about the credit quality of Maiden Lane’s holdings. “We need a complete and independent audit. The American people have a right to know what the Fed is doing with trillions of their taxpayer dollars.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Caroline Salas in New York at csalas1@bloomberg.net Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net
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UN report calls for world to ditch dollar, migrate to new global currency
By Reuters
Thursday, July 1st, 2010
A new United Nations report released on Tuesday calls for abandoning the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency, saying it has been unable to safeguard value.
"The dollar has proved not to be a stable store of value, which is a requisite for a stable reserve currency," the U.N. World Economic and Social Survey 2010 said.
________
Roman Empire redux?
-NT
A few months ago, any talk of this would have people suggest you visit the funny farm, but it's all becoming pretty clear that things are going to get a lot worse.
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Will The USD Be Replaced By The SDR Or The CNY As The Next Reserve Currency?
Zero Hedge | May 27, 2010
SOURCE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wil...serve-currency
---
Flashback:
Confirmed: International Monetary Fund (IMF) set to be the World's Federal Reserve!
The G20 Push to "Supersize" the IMF
William F. Jasper | The New American
06 March 2009
SOURCE:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=182725
Flashback 2:
UN: International Monetary Fund presses for authority to become the Federal Reserve of the world. The plan is to tie all the world's fiat currencies together so that, when one country gets deeper in debt than the others, the IMF can rush money from frugal countries to the reckless ones. Yes, that will do it! Yahoo News 2010 Feb 26 (Cached)
- G. Edward Griffin
IMF wants new power to supervise global financial system
AFP / Yahoo News
Feb 26, 2010
SOURCE:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100226...myimfsupervise
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Unemployment Rate June: Jobless Rate Drops, But Economy Sheds 125,000 jobs
WASHINGTON — A wave of census layoffs cut the nation's payrolls in June for the first time in six months, while private employers added a modest number of jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5 percent, its lowest level in almost a year.
Employers cut 125,000 jobs last month, the most since October, the Labor Department said Friday. The loss was driven by the end of 225,000 temporary census jobs. Businesses added a net total of 83,000 workers, an improvement from May. But that's also below March and April totals.
The unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level since July 2009. But it fell because 652,000 people gave up on their job searches and left the labor force. People who are no longer looking for work aren't counted as unemployed.
There is no doubt that things are getting better.
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There is no doubt that things are getting better.
SUMMER OF RECOVERY! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
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opinion unchanged.
-NT
Somehow i knew you would be back. ;)
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opinion unchanged.
-NT
Sell into strength....
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Orders for durable goods in came in under and missed concensus.
Not good.
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Orders for durable goods in came in under and missed concensus.
Not good.
'Unexpected"
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Bloomberg headline: "Capital Goods Orders in U.S. Climb, Signaling Investment Pickup"
Goldman Sachs: "Durable Goods Orders - Weaker than Expected"
Someone should explain to these people that propaganda is far more effective when everyone on the wrong team knows they have to lie
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/daily-propaganda-just-getting-painful#comments
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Looks like the open is going to be pretty bad but theres been so much pumping going on lately these last few weeks that it's harder to predict how the day will finally turn out. As you mentioned already theres plenty of work being to done to keep things above 10,000 and I think that they'll try to keep things like that, at least until Nov.
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Barclays Capital cuts 400 jobs, slowdown set to squeeze banks
http://sify.com/finance/barcap-cuts-...loOggbjac.html
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guys unless the S&P can breakout through 1130 we'll continue to head lower.
consider all rallies pure short covering unless we breach our breakout number.
NT's Market ranges are posted @ AlphaMaleForum. com
-NT
Great thread in the making neuro, http://www.dailyalphamaler.com/index.php/topic,1157.0.html
looking forward to see how this double dip will pan out... stay tuned guys, but he called it once.. he will call it again.
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opinion unchanged.
-NT
Why do you anticpate it?
The coming tax tsunami?
The Fed monetary bubble?
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hope i'm incorrect.
-NT
I don't think you are.
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The PPT and/or very dumb money must be working overtime and a half. Jobless claims on a solid upward trajectory reaching 500k, Philly and New York manufacturing numbers come in below expectations and miss by a large amount. In the Philly report the numbers were actually in the negative which signals contraction. Housing starts miss, permits miss, budget deficit bigger than once thought etc etc
Having the market down 144 points baffles me. What were the "positives"? A resource company merger? Wal-Mart profits on growth OUTSIDE of the U.S.? Consumer confidence was above expectations in a report 2 weeks ago? That poll is a total joke.
Good Lord.
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The PPT and/or very dumb money must be working overtime and a half. Jobless claims on a solid upward trajectory reaching 500k, Philly and New York manufacturing numbers come in below expectations and miss by a large amount. In the Philly report the numbers were actually in the negative which signals contraction. Housing starts miss, permits miss, budget deficit bigger than once thought etc etc
Having the market down 144 points baffles me. What were the "positives"? A resource company merger? Wal-Mart profits on growth OUTSIDE of the U.S.? Consumer confidence was above expectations in a report 2 weeks ago? That poll is a total joke.
Good Lord.
500k weekly number is staggering considering the fact that we are in a labor pool 8 million less than it was when the recession began.
This is something the cheerleaders have not, and dont acknowledge.
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Well said. It shows just how bad it is when you consider the fact that 8 million (which is a huge number) have simply stopped looking for work and have completely taken themselves out of the equation.
That's just how awful the labor market is.
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Well said. It shows just how bad it is when you consider the fact that 8 million (which is a huge number) have simply stopped looking for work and have completely taken themselves out of the equation.
That's just how awful the labor market is.
Its only going to get drastically worse as the Bush tax cuts exprire, taxes for obamacare go into effect, etc.
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let us not forget where this financial/economic mess began.
plenty of blame to go around.
-NT
Good call..
However, there are still plenty of opportunities for investors who watch the markets everyday..
However, the broad market will probably head lower
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next 10k breach should produce fireworks imo.
-NT
Could happen today.
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Could happen today.
I have been reading about this thing called the "Hindenburg Omen" which is some scary shit regarding where we might be heading.
No wonder Obama is partying like its 1928.
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existing home sales down a record -27.2%
watch for PPT to hold Dow above 10k
-NT
That home buyers' tax credit really worked wonders no? ? ? ?
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stimulus packages & home tax credits are Government gimmicks.
-NT
Was the further decline and collapse of housing "unexpected"?
Pulled forward demand and got people that were otherwise going to wait for prices to drop further to get into the market. Same thing with the "Cash for Clunkers". Gives the govt. some good propaganda and a decent but short-lived boost in economic indicators. The drop-off is to be expected. A shame that the people who bought the propaganda line and the bribes will now see their houses that they just bought decline another 15-20% in value.
The govt. can't fight off the credit contraction no matter how much Treasuries the Fed buys, how much synthetic money creation, how cheap the discount window is and how low the benchmark rates are. U.E. is high and people are, rightfully, paying down debt and increasing savings thus consumption is down and will continue down. The Govt. and the Fed hate this and will do whatever it takes to get people to blow money they don't have and become debt slaves. Their refusal to see the what the real problem is will be our end....all the bad debt is still there, all the toxic shit is still there, consumers need to rebuild savings and this nation needs to produce things of tangible value.
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existing home sales down a record -27.2%
watch for PPT to hold Dow above 10k
-NT
wow!
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"Mineral field depleted"
"Insufficient Vespene gas"
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The Recession Is Over, Welcome To The Depression
By Lou Scatignaon August 25th, 2010 | Permalink
The Recession Is Over, Welcome To The Depression
By Lou Scatigna
________________________ ________________________ _____
Recent economic numbers reflect serious problems with the U.S. economy. On Tuesday the National Association Of Realtors announced the largest drop in existing home sales since 1968 when they began to keep such records. This happened in one of the stronger months for home sales, and with deflated prices and record low mortgage rates. Most economists expected about a 13% decline but they missed the mark by far as existing home sales dropped a whopping 27%.
So why did home sales drop so much in July? Well part of it was demand pushed forward to get the government bribe in the form of the $8,000 or $6,500 tax credit. But the main reason home sales plunged is because Americans have no confidence in the economy or their government’s ability to fix it. Last week, first time claims for unemployment “unexpectedly” rose to 500,000, a number you would only see in a rapidly declining economy not one in “recovery”. If you don’t have a job or are concerned that you may lose the one you have, you are not going to go out and buy a home no matter how low interest rates go.
The average American is finally “getting it”, they realize that the American economy is broken in a way they have not experienced in their lifetime. For the first time in decades American families are paying down debt instead of piling more on. Fearful of future job losses, many are putting money away for a rainy day instead of spending it on new car or expensive vacation. Retail sales are suffering and will continue to slow as the economy falls into the abyss of economic Depression. With the housing market plunging, unemployment at almost depressionary levels (if we count discouraged and part time workers we are already there), foreclosures at record highs, bankruptcies rising, people just can not spend money on anything they don’t really need. Since the consumer is 70% of the U.S. economy, when the consumer pulls back, the economy follows and declines as well. Last week a friend of mine who owns a furniture store that has been in business for 81 years announced that he is closing his doors. He said the last two years were the worst the store ever experienced…IN 81YEARS!
Stock prices have begun to sense the destruction ahead. As more “unexpected” weak numbers are announced investors will run for the hills and we will experience the most brutal stock market decline in decades. The loss of wealth in the market will further depress economic activity. I would lower my stock market exposure immediately if overexposed to equities, the next leg down is going to be brutal I fear.
The Federal Reserve will continue to try to stimulate through further asset purchases and liquidity injections under QE2 but it will fail to achieve the desired result. After a period of deflation, confidence in the U.S. Dollar will decline and we will experience a real currency crisis and perhaps a dreaded hyper-inflationary period. After the housing numbers were released on Tuesday morning gold moved from $1,205 to $1,235/ounce, only $30 from it’s all time high hit early this summer. Gold knows that the only thing the Fed can do is print and print, which is highly inflationary and very dangerous.
My advise is to make sure you have some cash in your home (3-5K) and I would begin to buy a 6 month supply of food and anything else you use everyday (toilet paper, soap, toothpaste etc.). I don’t want to sound alarmist but it makes sense to have an emergency supply anyway in case of natural disasters, storms or power outages. In the best case, these items will be much more expensive in the future or, in the worst case, not available as people begin to hoard in anticipation of higher prices. “Inflation expectations” can drive demand up resulting in dwindling supply and rapidly rising prices which only feeds the frenzy.
We are now entering a very nasty period, the economic numbers are telling the story and people are starting to listen. Take the proper precautions in all matters financial.
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Morgan Stanley Says Government Defaults Inevitable
By Matthew Brown - Aug 25, 2010 11:44 AM ET
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
________________________ ________________________
Investors will face defaults on government bonds given the burden of aging populations and the difficulty of securing more tax revenue, according to Morgan Stanley.
“Governments will impose a loss on some of their stakeholders,” Arnaud Mares, an executive director at Morgan Stanley in London, wrote in a research report today. “The question is not whether they will renege on their promises, but rather upon which of their promises they will renege, and what form this default will take.” The sovereign-debt crisis is global “and it is not over,” the report said.
Borrowing costs for so-called peripheral euro-region nations such as Greece and Ireland surged today, resuming their ascent on concern that governments won’t be able to narrow their budget deficits. Standard & Poor’s downgraded Ireland’s credit rating yesterday on concern about the rising costs to support nationalized banks.
Mares said debt as a percentage of gross domestic product is a false indicator of an economy’s health given it doesn’t reflect governments’ available revenue and is “backward- looking.” While the U.S. government’s debt is 53 percent of GDP, one of the lowest ratios among developed nations, its debt as a percentage of revenue is 358 percent, one of the highest, the report said. Conversely, Italy has one of the highest debt- to-GDP ratios, at 116 percent, yet has a debt-to-revenue ratio of 188, Mares said.
Double Dip
“Outright sovereign default in large advanced economies remains an extremely unlikely outcome, in our view,” the report said. “But current yields and break-even inflation rates provide very little protection against the credible threat of financial oppression in any form it might take.”
Mares once worked at the U.K.’s Debt Management Office and is a former senior vice-president at credit-rating company Moody’s Investors Service.
“Note that a double-dip recession would not invalidate this conclusion,” Mares’ report said. “It would cause yet further damage to the governments’ power to tax, pushing them further in negative equity and therefore increasing the risks that debt holders suffer a larger loss eventually.”
Investors’ concern that the U.S. may fall back into recession has grown in recent weeks as U.S. economic data missed economists’ estimates. A Citigroup Inc. index of U.S. economic data surprises fell to minus 59 last week, the least since January 2009.
Credit-Default Swaps
A report from the Commerce Department today showed U.S. durable goods orders increased 0.3 percent, compared with the 3 percent median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures showed today in Washington. The number of unemployment claims unexpectedly shot up by 12,000 to 500,000 in the week ended Aug 14, Labor Department figures showed Aug. 19.
Yields on German and U.S. benchmark securities sank today as investors sought the safest assets. U.S. two-year Treasury yields, at a four-month high 1.18 percent on April 5, fell to a record low 0.4542 percent yesterday.
The yield on Greek debt rose to more than 900 basis points above that of Germany today, the most since the European Union and International Monetary Fund created a 750 billion-euro ($948 billion) bailout package in May. Greece’s so-called yield spread over German debt was at 932 basis points as of 2:18 p.m. in London, short of the 973 basis point record set on May 7. The Irish-German yield spread rose to a record 347 basis points, from 318 points yesterday.
Credit-default swaps that insure Irish government bonds against non-payment for five years rose 21 basis points to 331 today, the most since March 2009, according to data provider CMA. Greek swaps jumped to 921.5, the most since June, from 896.
“The conflict that opposes bondholders to other government stakeholders is more intense than ever, and their interests are no longer sufficiently well-aligned with those of influential political constituencies,” such as elderly voters and their claims on pensions and health insurance, Mares wrote.
To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London at mbrown42@bloomberg.net
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silly string holds this Market above 10k
be careful
-NT
1020 for the Dow at the moment. Right when the data for housing/durable goods was released you can bet bottom dollar that the Fed/Banks were working in 12th gear to keep this sucker above 10k. With all the horrible news, and it is awful, the Dow being above 10k and the Dow even rebounding for going below 10k is a total joke. This market isn't a market anymore and hasn't been in a very long time. Long Term Investment is now around 5 minutes and short term investment is around however fast the HFT's can go. No more money from "outside" sources into the market because it's broken and the game is about up. It is now purely the TBTF's, Financial Institutions and the Fed.
And I think it's time for us to think of the DOW as a policy tool and nothing more.
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Financial Expert Warns of Economic Collapse
Gulag Bound ^ | Cliff Kincaid
Posted on Wednesday, August 25, 2010
In shocking news, the New York Times cites figures that investors withdrew $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year when billions of dollars should have been expected to be flowing in.
The New York Times blames this unusual development on “economic uncertainty.” One explanation is that the financial reform bill pushed by President Obama and passed by Congressional liberals was a complete fraud. The bill failed to protect invested capital, did nothing to stop the devaluation of our homes, and didn’t reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage entities involved in the financial crisis.
As Accuracy in Media has consistently reported, the basic problem is that the regulations that protected investors and their capital were removed, beginning in 2007 under the George W. Bush Administration, and have not been restored.
Zubi Diamond, author of Wizards of Wall Street, has released a new YouTube video highlighting what needs to be done and how the nation got into this predicament. He has focused attention on the notorious hedge fund short sellers who brought on the 2008 economic and financial crisis that paved the way for Barack Obama’s election as president.
These short sellers, such as George Soros, made billions of dollars betting on the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry as ordinary Americans lost their savings.
“They subverted our capitalist system economy in order to achieve a regime change in America. They looted the country and visited financial violence on the American people. American families bear the brunt of the destruction of capitalism and the installation of socialism in their country with job losses, home foreclosures, and retirement portfolio wipe-outs,” Diamond charges.
The major media, he said, have concealed the truth about what has happened from the American people.
He explained, “Most Americans cannot even imagine the fact that this calamitous crisis was deliberately engineered by enemies and traitors within our borders.”
Diamond urged the media to start educating the public about what is happening: “Most people do not know how capitalism works, in terms of the safeguard regulations which protected our capitalist economy. Once you unhinge and unscrew the nuts and bolts, and tear down the underpinnings and remove the safeguard regulations, you have succeeded in dismantling capitalism and killing the economic engine of growth. They are killing the goose that lays the golden egg.”
In response to the Times article about investors fleeing the market, Diamond said, “Who wouldn’t flee the market when you are being robbed every day by the hedge fund short sellers? They are targeting and preying on the small investors. The reality is beginning to sink in as more people and more people realize that the economy is in terrible shape, and it is not going to recover.”
A recovery is possible, Diamond said. But the Congress and the President have to restore the regulations that “protect the invested capital that is needed to create jobs, and to protect the value of our homes and assets. You must restrict short sale transactions, end mark to market accounting completely, restore the old circuit breakers, and restore the old uptick rule to their original condition without any modification.”
His recommendations include:
•Reinstate the uptick rule.
•Remove mark-to-market accounting and replace it with historic cost accounting.
•Dismantle and discontinue trading on all the short Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), also called leveraged inverse ETFs.
•Reinstate the circuit breakers and the trading curb to kick in whenever the Dow Jones drops 150 points.
•Regulate the hedge funds just like mutual funds and pension funds are regulated.
A powerful film, Stock Shock: The Short Selling of the American Dream, analyzes this phenomenon as it relates to the rise and fall of Sirius XM radio stock. The film asserts that the removal of the uptick rule in 2007 by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) led to the rise of short selling and stock market manipulation.
Diamond explained how the looting and destruction of the economy have occurred. “To short sell a stock is to sell a stock you do not own. Such a transaction should be governed by a regulation, designed to protect the owners of the stock, their assets and invested capital. That regulation which governed short sale transactions is called the uptick rule or short sale restriction rule.”
He added, “The Managed Funds Association (MFA), the association of hedge fund short sellers, successfully lobbied regulators and policy makers to remove that short sale restriction requirement, meaning they now have the government’s approval to sell what they do not own unrestricted, when they know very well that selling what they do not own is stealing. The only difference is that they are stealing with the approval of the government.”
“Our stock market is a broken market,” Diamond added. “There is no investor confidence because the invested capital is not protected. There is no uptick rule, no circuit breakers and no trading curb. There are no legal protections for the capital. There is no capitalism.”
The stock market, he said, has become “a money manufacturing factory. The commodities being processed are the small investors, retirement portfolios, and mutual fund investors.”
As a result, the small investors are experiencing diminishing returns and losing their appetite for risk.
The Times should explain to its readers the real reason why investors are fleeing the stock market, he said.
“Our publicly traded companies can now be held hostage by the hedge fund short sellers as they continue preying on investors,” he said. “They can evaporate any of the publicly traded companies in short order. They demonstrated that capability in the ‘flash crash’ of May 6, 2010, when they drove down the stock price of Accenture (ticker symbol CAN) from $44 per share to one cent per share in a 15-minute time period.”
The SEC is supposed to be an independent regulatory body to protect the integrity of the market but it is under the control of the Managed Funds Association. “They have rigged and primed the market for manipulation,” Diamond said.
In the past, ordinary Americans could analyze the market and individual companies and invest accordingly. Today, the situation is different.
“Without the short sale restriction regulation, the fundamental attributes of the companies are rendered useless,” he said. “The effective use of technical analysis has been nullified. When it does seem to work, it can be used by the hedge fund short sellers to manipulate the market as they set traps for investors at each fulcrum, resistance or support levels.”
He explained, “You have a market that is very difficult to trade or invest in. This is a market that can do anything, reverse, go up or down, or reverse again with increased volatility as the manipulators are on a search mission, preying on small investors, searching for investment capital to steal.”
Diamond compared the stock market to a Las Vegas casino, where the house always wins. The MFA is the house in today’s market. “They own the stock market and the stock market police—the SEC. Everything is stacked against the small investors. They operate with impunity.”
Diamond said the hedge fund short sellers use various techniques to accomplish their insidious goals. These include “dark pools,” in which their transactions are concealed from the public; flash orders; front running; insider trading; and collusion. He explained, “They raid companies at will, shorting stocks fearlessly without an uptick, colluding to determine the direction of the market. They trade fearlessly without risk, and they transferred all the fear, and risk of investment losses and capital losses to the small investors, regular investors, retirement portfolios and mutual funds.
As if the situation wasn’t bad enough, the so-called financial reform bill which Diamond warned against but passed the Congress exempts the SEC from the Freedom of Information Act.
“The documents that I was available to see to help me write the book Wizards of Wall Street will no longer be made available to the public or journalists. The SEC will now only release documents to the Congress and the courts. The MFA made sure that its lap dogs at the SEC are shielded from scrutiny and criticism as they cooperate with the agents of George Soros in destroying America and capitalism.”
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1020 for the Dow at the moment. Right when the data for housing/durable goods was released you can bet bottom dollar that the Fed/Banks were working in 12th gear to keep this sucker above 10k. With all the horrible news, and it is awful, the Dow being above 10k and the Dow even rebounding for going below 10k is a total joke. This market isn't a market anymore and hasn't been in a very long time. Long Term Investment is now around 5 minutes and short term investment is around however fast the HFT's can go. No more money from "outside" sources into the market because it's broken and the game is about up. It is now purely the TBTF's, Financial Institutions and the Fed.
And I think it's time for us to think of the DOW as a policy tool and nothing more.
As usual, always look forward to reading your posts. I wish I had more time to respond.
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We're In A Contained Depression That May Last As Long As A Decade
Mike "Mish" Shedlock | Aug. 25, 2010, 12:50 PM | 2,770 | 11
________________________ _______________
. Kevin Feltes, an economist for the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, solicited my opinion on a couple of their recent articles.
Levy comes down on the side of deflation, as do I. However, the devil is in the details, as always. I will go through one of their articles in a point-by-point fashion, stating where I agree and disagree with their analysis.
Levy:
It is not inflation but more disinflation and ultimately deflation that lie ahead in the 2010s.
Inflation worries remain a major part of the market backdrop, and the past year has brought new price stability concerns to investors. During that time, we have written about inflation fears, deflation risks, and the relationships between price trends and monetary policy, fiscal policy, Treasury debt levels, foreign debt holdings, and various other issues. We have argued that rising inflation will not be a threat in the coming years and that disinflation and some deflation are the real worries. Our position remains unchanged.
Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise; Details Range from Weak to Abysmal
"Contained Depression"
Japan's Finance Minister Threatens Yen Intervention to Halt "One-Sided Movement"
1. Why It Will Be Very Difficult for Inflation to Accelerate in the Next Few Years
The dominant influence on price trends in the near future and for years to come will be the deflationary influence of chronically high unemployment. The economy not only has gone through a deep recession but also has entered a contained depression, a long period of substandard economic performance, chronic financial problems, and generally high unemployment. The contained depression is likely to last about a decade; it will end in the latter half of the 2010s at the earliest and could stretch into the 2020s
In the years ahead, chronic high unemployment will weigh heavily on labor costs; chronic economic weakness will tend to keep profit margins under pressure and firms focused on cost control; and global instability and large areas of depression (contained or otherwise) will reduce upward pressures on prices of imported commodities and are likely to cause these prices to fall much of the time.
Even if imported commodity prices, most notably oil prices, rise sharply at times, they will not have a large, lasting effect on inflation as long as labor costs are decelerating or actually falling.
Labor costs are the dominant inflation influence not only because they are the single biggest component of prices, but also because labor costs are heavily affected by compensation rates, which fuel consumer spending and are therefore tied to the ability of firms to pass on inflationary price increases to consumers.
By contrast, oil prices, which are widely believed to be a critical inflation signal, have a weaker relationship to inflation over time, although they can be an important short-term influence. Labor cost inflation will remain subdued or even negative as long as unemployment remains high, and the prospects for a real recovery in labor markets are poor. A tightening labor market—a falling unemployment rate—would at some point trigger inflationary pay increases. Conversely, any unemployment rate that is substantially above such a trigger point indicates excessive competition for jobs and a tendency for pay raises to shrink—or pay cuts to become larger and more common. The trigger point, which varies from one business cycle to another depending on a variety of circumstances, is by any reasonable estimate far below the present figure of nearly 10%.
Mish Response:
I like the concept of a "contained depression".
We are certainly in a depression. However, 40 million people on food stamps as of August 2010, masks that depression. The cost of the food stamp program is on schedule to exceed $60 billion in fiscal 2010. For comparison purposes, there was just over 11 million on food stamps in 2005.
Please note there are 14.6 million unemployed, but of them 4.5 million of them are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 4.7 million are receiving extended benefits. Thus 63% of those unemployed are receiving benefits. Being paid while not working also masks the depression.
In addition, there is massive underemployment with 8.5 million working "part time for economic reasons" and another 2.6 million "marginally attached" workers who want a job but are not considered unemployed because they have not looked for 4 weeks. This is "containment" of sorts, as the official numbers mask the depth of the unemployment problem.
Finally, countless millions have not paid their mortgage for months or even a year without being foreclosed on. Free from mortgage expenses but having a place to live certainly makes life a lot easier.
Missing the Boat on Labor-Induced Wage-Price Spirals
I disagree with Levy when it comes to the issue of wage price spirals.
Levy's statement "Labor cost inflation will remain subdued or even negative as long as unemployment remains high" is not true as evidenced by the stagflationary 70's and 80's complete with Nixon's wage-price controls that were dismantled as a failure in 1974.
My reasons include global wage arbitrage, boomer demographics, and overcapacity in the face of secular changes in consumer psychology (the willingness and ability of consumers to take on more debt.)
Those forces will act as a huge damper on consumer demand for goods and services, a damper on business' ability and desire to expand, and in turn a damper on both wages and prices, regardless of what the Fed tries to do.
The critical factor in that list is consumer psychology - the willingness and ability of consumers to take on more debt.
In the 70's, households went from one wage earner to two, increasing the ability of households to take on debt. Interest rates falling from as high as 18% to where they are today increased the ability of consumers to take on debt. Belief that rising asset prices (especially home prices) would guarantee a nice retirement increased the willingness of consumers to take on debt, and debt they did take on in the form of second mortgages, home equity lines of credit, etc.
Now, it's payback time for a global credit boom of epic proportion, now gone bust.
Greenspan vs. Bernanke
Note the huge difference in the problems of Greenspan as compared to Bernanke.
Greenspan had the winds of rising productivity in conjunction with an internet boom, followed by the winds of housing and commercial real estate booms, blowing at his back. The internet boom and the housing bubble both provided an enormous source of jobs.
In contrast, Bernanke has a gale force breeze of a secular change in social attitudes towards debt in conjunction with unfavorable boomer demographics, blowing briskly in his face. There is no source of jobs now, only the hollow shells of vacant commercial real estate standing as testimony to the blatantly foolish policies of the Greenspan and Bernanke Fed.
Inflationists simply do not understand the importance of these secular shifts in consumer attitudes and demographics.
Luck of the Draw
Greenspan was "lucky" in the sense that the credit booms fueled asset prices as opposed to consumer prices. Greenspan never had to act to contain "inflation" because he failed to see any even though it fueled a massive asset bubble in housing and commercial real estate.
Here is a chart from Case-Shiller CPI Now Tracking CPI-U that shows what I mean.
CS-CPI vs. CPI-U
The above chart compares CPI-U vs. CS-CPI, the latter formed by substituting the Case-Shiller home price index for OER (Owners' Equivalent Rent), in the CPI. Home prices were relatively stable in the mid-to-late 90's as the real cost of borrowing was high.
However, note what happened when Greenspan held rates low in 2002-2006. Real interest rates (subtract CS-CPI from the Fed Funds Rate) were as low as NEGATIVE 5% in 2004.
Is it any wonder asset prices soared?
This is one of many reasons why Bernanke's 2% "inflation" policy is preposterous. The Fed simply has no control where liquidity flows, or for that matter if there is a flow at all. Note that real interest rates as measured by CS-CPI hit POSITIVE 6% in 2009 in the wake of the housing crash. Ironically, talk of the town was "massive inflation".
The above chart is from March 5, 2010. Although real interest rates are now negative by my measure, I do expect home prices as measured by Case-Shiller to start dropping this autumn, and for real interest rates to be positive once again, even at a 0% Fed Funds rate!
Aftermath of the Credit Bubble Bust
Greenspan and Bernanke both failed to spot the massive increase in inflation in the early 2000's because liquidity flowed into assets as opposed to wages and consumer prices. We are now in the aftermath of the credit bubble bust.
Just as rising productivity and rising asset prices masked massive inflation of money supply and credit in the early 2000's, the reported CPI-U masked falling home prices (and high real interest rates) from 2006 on.
With consumers deleveraging, boomer demographics, and no driver for jobs or economic growth, wages and prices are highly likely to be contained.
Thus, Levy has the result correct (deflation) but missed the key reason why - a secular change in consumer attitudes towards credit and debt in conjunction with a secular shift in the attitudes of banks' willingness to lend.
Levy:
2. Why Aggressive Monetary Policy Isn’t Causing and Won’t Cause Inflation
The notion of an inexorable link between monetary policy and inflation is pounded into our brains by the prevailing economic wisdom: “inflation is a monetary phenomenon,” “inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods,” “central banks pump money into their economies to inflate their way out of trouble,” and so forth.
Yet creating more reserves in the system does not under all circumstances lead to additional demand, and if it does not, it cannot affect prices. True, under normal circumstances, easier money means lower interest rates, more credit creation, and more demand associated with that credit creation. But that’s not what happens when the economy faces what has been called the “liquidity trap,” when increasing the money supply does not induce more activity.
There are various theoretical reasons given for the liquidity trap, but let’s just focus on what is happening now and what is likely to happen in the years ahead. Presently, excess reserves are not inducing lending for several reasons, and adding to them further will not make much difference.
• First of all, banks are capital constrained, not reserve constrained.
• Second, interest rates could not fall far enough during this business cycle to enable troubled debtors to refinance their way out of trouble, so now banks remain worried about the volumes of bad debt they are carrying and how future loan losses will impinge on earnings and capital.
• Third, deflationary expectations are beginning to work their way into banks’ loan evaluation process on a micro level; in more and more areas, loan officers are looking at households with shrinking incomes and firms with deflating revenues.
• Fourth, the private sector has too much debt, and many households and firms are trying to reduce debt, especially as more of them worry about deflation in their own incomes or revenues.
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Mish Response:
Those four points above are perfectly expressed. In conjunction with secular changes in consumer attitudes, they form the very heart of the deflation argument.
In spite of Bernanke's heroic efforts, banks are still capital constrained. The Fed can create reserves at will. It cannot create capital.
Very few understand those alleged "excess reserves" are a mirage. They don't exist. More importantly, fewer still understand that reserves are not an issue at all and in reality, lending precedes creation of reserves.
I discussed those concepts at length in Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves
Lending Comes First, Reserves Second
• Australian economist Steve Keen has made a strong case that lending comes first and reserves later in Roving Cavaliers of Credit. I discussed that at length in Fiat World Mathematical Model.
• That point alone should seal the hash of the debate but it keeps coming up over and over. So let's try one more time.
• Inquiring minds are reading BIS Working Papers No 292, Unconventional monetary policies: an appraisal.
• Note: The above link is a lengthy and complex read, recommended only for those with a good understanding of monetary issues. It is not light reading.
The article addresses two fallacies
• Proposition #1: an expansion of bank reserves endows banks with additional resources to extend loans
• Proposition #2: There is something uniquely inflationary about bank reserves financing
Simply put, anyone who thinks those "excess reserves" are going to produce haunting inflation simply has no idea how the credit system even works.
What about the "Liquidity Trap"?
My only point of contention in the above section by Levy is in regards to the alleged "liquidity trap".
The "liquidity trap" concept is a Keynesian artifact that presumes something needs to be done about falling prices and lack of credit expansion.
The reality is falling prices are a good thing (they are only bad in the construct of a credit bubble bust where banks can't be paid back and the Fed feels obliged to steal from taxpayers to increase bank profits to make up for their losses).
What causes asset bubbles?
Why inflation of monetary supply and credit of course.
A depression is a necessary aftermath of a credit boom. Japan attempted to fight deflation for 20 years and all they have to show for it is debt to GDP ratios of 200% and an enormous demographic problem staring them square in the face.
Ad Hoc Policy of Inflation
My friend "HB" aka Pater Tenebarum discusses the Fed's misguided policy The Ad Hoc Policy of Inflation:
Contrary to Bullard's hypothesis that rising prices are desirable, we tend to think that most consumers would probably be quite happy to see falling prices. Note here that producers need not suffer either from a fall in prices. What is important for producer profits are relative prices. If their input costs fall to the same extent as their sales prices, they will continue to be profitable.
Bullard's error is the widely held belief that falling prices are synonymous with economic depression. We already mentioned in the past that this view can neither be supported theoretically nor empirically. The fastest period of real economic growth in US history of the past 150 years occurred before the Fed was founded, and coincided with steadily falling prices. Since Bullard does simply not say anywhere why he thinks the price level should always be rising, he seems to assume that this is self-evident. However, it is not. If falling prices were bad for an industry, the computer industry would not be an engine of economic growth, but would always be in depression. Until Bullard explains how such an 'exception to the rule' can not only exist, but actually thrive, we fail to follow his argument in favor of more inflation.
Also note, as I pointed out above, the Fed cannot control where liquidity flows or if it does at all. The housing bubble is proof enough. Thus, the idea that +2% CPI inflation is a good thing is doubly stupid.
Levy:
4. The Rapid Increase In Public Debt Is Not Likely to End in Disaster
Although public debt issuance is massive at present and will continue to be so, total debt issuance— public plus private—is much smaller than it has been in recent years, and it will remain depressed. Public debt growth may have accelerated to roughly $2 trillion annual rate, but net private debt issuance will likely be minimal or negative for many years as the private sector delevers; private debt growth had been running at about $4 trillion annual rate in recent years but has shifted into reverse, becoming negative (chart 4). Thus, although the federal debt is rising rapidly, the total debt level in the economy is not.
Mish Response:
Levy was kind enough to produce a larger more up-to-date version of the above mentioned chart. Here it is:
Note that net credit has been in contraction for 5 quarters!
In spite of huge government deficits, private credit is contracting faster. Given that "excess reserves" just sitting don't do a damn thing, and given that TMS1 - True Money Supply is barely growing we have a rock solid case for saying deflation is here and now.
True Money Supply
For more on TMS1 and TMS2 please see:
True Money Supply (TMS) vs. Austrian Money Supply (AMS or M Prime) Update
Money Supply Divergence - TMS1 vs. TMS2 vs. M2 - What does it Mean?
We Are In Deflation Here and Now
Rising prices do not constitute inflation, they are at best a symptom of rising inflation.
If you have not yet done so, please read Are we "Trending Towards Deflation" or in It?
There is plenty of information in that article about how to spot inflation and deflation by looking at symptoms of inflation and deflation.
Nearly every condition one would expect to see in deflation is happening, right now. The few that aren't are close at hand and likely. If all or nearly all the conditions one would expect to see in deflation are happening (the scorecard is close to unanimous), I suggest that those who say we are not in deflation have the wrong definition of the word.
Inflation and Deflation Defined
Bear in mind my definition of inflation is a net expansion of money supply and credit, with credit marked-to-market. Deflation is a net contraction of money supply and credit, with credit marked-to-market.
Unfortunately, the Fed and the FASB have conspired to prevent mark-to-market accounting.
However, it is relatively easy based on market reaction, credit expansion/contraction, and moves in interest rates to state that deflation started in 2007, continued through 2008, was interrupted in 2009, and we are back in it now, simply by looking at action in treasury yields in conjunction will all of the other indicator mentioned in the article.
The reason I use "mark-to-market" accounting of credit in my definition is twofold.
1. From a practical standpoint "mark-to-market" accounting better explains what is happening and why.
2. The model is predictive. Note the Levy chart for 2008 and 2009. Asset prices crashed in 2008 and rose in 2009 although total credit fell in both years. Why? The massive bailout of banks by the Fed and Congress hugely lifted the value of credit on the books of banks. In turn, asset prices rose, as did treasury yields, even though the real economy stagnated.
One could not have predicted recent events (even in hindsight) simply by looking at the Levy chart. The Levy chart shows 2008 to be an inflationary year and 2009 a deflationary year.
One could also not have predicted what would happen to treasury yields without an understanding of what collapsing credit would do.
Time to Short Treasuries?
Flashback January 20, 2008: Time To Short Treasuries?
Kass: Inflation is still an issue. Despite the Bureau of Labor Statistics' readings, inflation remains elevated and is not reflected in the current level of interest rates. The expected fiscal and monetary stimulation in the upcoming months will only serve to exacerbate inflationary pressures.
Mish: Before we can have a debate about whether or not inflation is a problem, we need to agree on what inflation is. Credit is being destroyed far faster than any monetary printing. Currently, Money Supply Trends Are Deflationary. In context of understanding what inflation is, treasury yields this low seem reasonable.
With rising unemployment will come still more foreclosures on both residential and commercial property. This will further impair bank balance sheets and any presumed recovery from this so called $150 billion "stimulus". It will likely take months, before that money gets into consumer hands and perhaps a year before Congress figures out it is meaningless.
Virtually no one, including Bernake thinks deflation can happen in the US. My position is that Things That "Can't" Happen are about to. The result will be Deflation American Style.
There is no bubble in treasuries if you look closely at the fundamental issues. Those who want to see how low treasury yields can get and stay there, need to look at Japan. Yields in the US are going to go far lower and stay lower longer than nearly everyone thinks.
Note how useless the CPI and the price of oil were and still are, in predicting treasury yields.
By the way, I love that Levy chart.
Unfortunately, it is not possible to put together a chart of credit "mark-to-market". There is no such thing, on purpose. Neither the Fed, nor the banks want anyone to know true marks, and the accounting board has delayed "mark-to-market" accounting as well as rules that would require more off balance sheet transactions to be brought back onto bank balance sheets.
However we can easily deduce the trend by a number of variables. Those variables suggest we are indeed bank in deflation after a short interlude in 2009.
Levy:
As revenues strengthen and social safety net spending eases, the deficit will tend to narrow rapidly on its own. As in the late 1940s and early 1950s, the debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to fall rapidly.
Mish:
The conditions in the 1940s and 1950s have absolutely nothing in common with the conditions now. Think of the baby boomer dynamics, population growth, etc.
We now have a massive wave of boomers headed for retirement with a need to draw down savings. Unfortunately, those savings are nonexistent for a huge chunk of retirees and hugely insufficient for nearly all the rest.
The Model is Japan NOT 1940
We have a model to look at and that model is Japan. Is debt-to-GDP rising or falling in Japan? I think we all know the answer to that. No doubt many will chime in "the US is not Japan" citing Bernanke's massive reflationary effort.
Ho-hum.
Please consider Bernanke's Deflation Preventing Scorecard and my followup post Are we "Trending Towards Deflation" or in It?.
In spite of that massive effort by Bernanke the US is in deflation.
Others will claim Japan is a nation of savers. What they really mean is Japan WAS a nation of savers. The savings rate in Japan is now under 1% while the US savings rate is soaring.
Interestingly, a lack of savings in the US strengthens (not weakens) the deflation case. What cannot be paid back won't. What isn't paid back results in a collapse in credit (i.e. deflation).
So yes, we are Japan, and no, this is not 1940.
Headed For Disaster
Levy makes another error in stating "The Rapid Increase In Public Debt Is Not Likely to End in Disaster"
Assuming we stay on the same course, we are indeed headed for disaster. However, timing the disaster and the nature of it is the problem. We could be 5 years away or 10. There are too many variables to figure out, and too many ways the problem can change in the meantime.
I think Japan faces disaster first. They are one cycle ahead.
Levy:
8. Could the Economy Begin to Overheat When the Contained Depression Is Over, Leading to Rapidly Rising Inflation?
As long as the contained depression persists, and our best estimate is that it will last roughly a decade, the primary threat to price stability will remain deflation rather than inflation. Japan provides a graphic example of how an economy in contained depression — in Japan’s case, for nearly two decades — can run huge deficits, accumulate massive government debt, and still experience disinflation and deflation. The real inflation question concerns what will happen once the contained depression ends.
Although the future that far out holds many uncertainties, it appears that occasional spikes will be more likely than an ongoing upward wage-price spiral after many years of disinflation or deflation.
Mish: Levy is back on track. I too suspect the "contained depression" may last as long as a decade. If it does, there is no reason to think the deficit will shrink. Japan's didn't, so why should ours?
Interestingly, Levy hits the nail on the head with "Japan provides a graphic example of how an economy in contained depression can run huge deficits, accumulate massive government debt, and still experience disinflation and deflation" while stating something sounding way different in the preceding section.
Conclusions
I commend Levy for coming to what I believe is the correct overall conclusion. Levy did go astray on some minor issues as well as one major point, but overall I like their analysis. The report was well presented.
One problem in reading the report is that at times Levy seems to confuse "price inflation" with "inflation". It is very difficult to draw correct conclusions about what is happening and more importantly what is likely to happen, unless one figures out where money supply and credit are headed, and why.
If you have not done so, please consider Fiat World Mathematical Model.
That Levy managed to come to what I believe is the proper overall conclusion stems from Levy's rock-solid case presented in section 2: Why Aggressive Monetary Policy Isn’t Causing and Won’t Cause Inflation.
Thanks
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/were-in-a-contained-depression-that-may-last-as-long-as-a-decade-2010-8#ixzz0xfjzPydb
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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-come-473k-expectations-490k-previous-revised-504k-500k (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-come-473k-expectations-490k-previous-revised-504k-500k)
The Jobless claims came in under "expectations" 470k vs 490k. With those filing for long term benefits rising. The 470k is a bad number and higher than the weekly claims from a month ago. Last Jobless claims report was revised upwards 500k to 504k. Not good. Couple that with total business spending in decline and I see absolutely no reason that this market should even be anywhere near the color green.
And Neuro, good point about the weight of tomorrows GDP number. Although to me, GDP is more fantasy now than fact but it is still a number to watch and a good source of "pump and dump" news. I believe I read in Bloomberg that the prior Qtr. or Qtr's are actually being revised down by as much as a full % point. Not good. Add to that to the fact that all of our Govt's projections fiscal/budget projections, Entitlement budget projects etc are based on somewhere north of 4% growth, and you see how none of this is good news.
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http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-come-473k-expectations-490k-previous-revised-504k-500k (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/initial-claims-come-473k-expectations-490k-previous-revised-504k-500k)
The Jobless claims came in under "expectations" 470k vs 490k. With those filing for long term benefits rising. The 470k is a bad number and higher than the weekly claims from a month ago. Last Jobless claims report was revised upwards 500k to 504k. Not good. Couple that with total business spending in decline and I see absolutely no reason that this market should even be anywhere near the color green.
And Neuro, good point about the weight of tomorrows GDP number. Although to me, GDP is more fantasy now than fact but it is still a number to watch and a good source of "pump and dump" news. I believe I read in Bloomberg that the prior Qtr. or Qtr's are actually being revised down by as much as a full % point. Not good. Add to that to the fact that all of our Govt's projections fiscal/budget projections, Entitlement budget projects etc are based on somewhere north of 4% growth, and you see how none of this is good news.
I am arguing with some fools on HP about this and Roubini's latest predictions and those fools are still in blame Reagan/Bush mode. They are utterly clueless and melting down at the prospect that a double dip will be blamed on the current crop of hacks in DC.
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I am arguing with some fools on HP about this and Roubini's latest predictions and those fools are still in blame Reagan/Bush mode. They are utterly clueless and melting down at the prospect that a double dip will be blamed on the current crop of hacks in DC.
Neurotoxin blames Bush too.
bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
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Neurotoxin blames Bush too.
Hint - we are almost 3 years after proclamation. What has occurred since?
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obama has exacerbated the disaster bush created.
-NT
Correctamundo.
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obama has exacerbated the disaster bush created.
-NT
in your opinion, how has Obama exacerbated the disaster bush created and what should he have done differently
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in your opinion, how has Obama exacerbated the disaster bush created and what should he have done differently
hmmmmm lets see....the health care bill, a shitty stimulus package(nothing more than rampant spending), raising taxes, playing with the idea of letting tax cuts expire, creating programs like cash for clunkers that do nothing more than pull demand forward creating a lull in demand later.
finance reform that doesnt do anything as of yet, customer protection that doesnt protect...
what exactly do you think bush did to create this disaster straw or NT I started an entire thread about this and bumped it for days but neither one of you posted in that, hmmm I wonder why?
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hmmmmm lets see....the health care bill, a shitty stimulus package(nothing more than rampant spending), raising taxes, playing with the idea of letting tax cuts expire, creating programs like cash for clunkers that do nothing more than pull demand forward creating a lull in demand later.
finance reform that doesnt do anything as of yet, customer protection that doesnt protect...
what exactly do you think bush did to create this disaster straw or NT I started an entire thread about this and bumped it for days but neither one of you posted in that, hmmm I wonder why?
I asked NT not you
do yourself a favor and try to relax
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I asked NT not you
do yourself a favor and try to relax
LOL i take that as you have no clue what bush did to destroy the economy but will continue to parot obammers?
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here you go fellas anybody who think bush created this mess please go respond in this thread...ya the one I created but not one person who parrots obama and blames bush has posted in...
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=346366.0
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Ah, another laugher on Wall Street today. ADP jobs report was a disaster and the market surges 230+ on "Upbeat" manufacturing data. 56.3? How on Earth can the national numbers be high when all of the regional reports were horrible? CNBC pumping bad numbers from GM as good numbers just before their IPO, I'm shocked, shocked I say! 10k jobs cut from the private sector...that's not good. Lots of pump and dump from the Govt/Fed backed banks and the Fed itself. Trying to entice some dumb money to get into the market and get ass-fucked and dumped into the nearest river or shallow lake, possibly a fjord.
The China numbers are smoke and mirrors. More so than ours. Funny how they always seem to meet their "growth expectations" and have never missed....ever. Even in the midst of over 50% of their exports customers are mired in a deep and ongoing recession....strange. I guess we could look to all of the massive cities, roads, apartments, factories etc that sit totally empty and un-utilized. We could also take a look at the massive stimulus the Chinese govt. is doing in perpetuity to fund massive construction projects that sit totally unused like the cities (literally) I mentioned above. Or perhaps the fact that the Govt. is forcing Chinese banks to give out loans to anyone or anything with a pulse and a majority of those loans are underwater and will not be repaid.
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Ah, another laugher on Wall Street today. ADP jobs report was a disaster and the market surges 230+ on "Upbeat" manufacturing data. 56.3? How on Earth can the national numbers be high when all of the regional reports were horrible? CNBC pumping bad numbers from GM as good numbers just before their IPO, I'm shocked, shocked I say! 10k jobs cut from the private sector...that's not good. Lots of pump and dump from the Govt/Fed backed banks and the Fed itself. Trying to entice some dumb money to get into the market and get ass-fucked and dumped into the nearest river or shallow lake, possibly a fjord.
The China numbers are smoke and mirrors. More so than ours. Funny how they always seem to meet their "growth expectations" and have never missed....ever. Even in the midst of over 50% of their exports customers are mired in a deep and ongoing recession....strange. I guess we could look to all of the massive cities, roads, apartments, factories etc that sit totally empty and un-utilized. We could also take a look at the massive stimulus the Chinese govt. is doing in perpetuity to fund massive construction projects that sit totally unused like the cities (literally) I mentioned above. Or perhaps the fact that the Govt. is forcing Chinese banks to give out loans to anyone or anything with a pulse and a majority of those loans are underwater and will not be repaid.
Could the Chinese be cooking their books, potentially leading to a huge recession once the mierda hits the fan?
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NT,
I am sure you have covered this somewhere in the thousands of posts on this thread, but how did BUSH contribute to the state of our economy?
I think it's unrealistic to say it's all "BUSH's" fault. What did he do?
I know irresponsibly putting us in Iraq and costing billions if not trillions and putting Afghanistan on the back burner dragging it doesn't help.
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Could the Chinese be cooking their books, potentially leading to a huge recession once the mierda hits the fan?
Their books are on fire.
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Their books are on fire.
I never understood all this China prosperity, China new economic leader in the world, China new world power, etc. Their products suck, and their multitude of Chinese workers are next to slaves. Yeah, "everything is made in China", but a lot of it by Western companies. When something is made in China by a Chinese company, it is usually something that will make you sick, hurt you or kill you. As secretive and oppressive as the Chinese government is, I'm not surprised they are cooking their books and their prosperity is nothing but an illusion.
I see Obama in the near future proposing a new bill to bailout China.
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Market is overbought and at the top of its range. highest probably is a pullback from here. (if the PPT allows)
jobless claims should act as a catalyst.
Range 1040-1130
-NT
The shit is going to hit the fan again isn't it? It's been talked about extensively but for me, it looks more and more like that's about what's going to happen. It hasn't exactly been good news lately.
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Market is overbought and at the top of its range. highest probably is a pullback from here. (if the PPT allows)
jobless claims should act as a catalyst.
Range 1040-1130
-NT
The Fed is chomping at the bit to another round of massive, out in the open QE. The PPT will allow a drop if it's big enough to scare the shit out of everyone and allow The Fed to pursue their preferred course of action. Which I assume is QE, followed by a massive devaluation of the dollar, inflation, more destruction of the middle class and, of course, enriching of the banks.
I wish I worked for a bank.
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It's Bush's fault
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PPT is holding the market UP until Nov. elections imo. a post election/holiday rally is anticipated.
S&P closed @ 1125
range 1040-1130
-NT
question - if the GOP takes over the House and/or senate - what do you think will happen?
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Market/Gov/Media Outlets, once again, cherry pick whatever the hell they please.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/durable-goods-plunges-nondefense-shipments-plunge-402-ex-transporation-beats-expectations (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/durable-goods-plunges-nondefense-shipments-plunge-402-ex-transporation-beats-expectations)
If you actually read and understand the report it isn't all that good. Actually, it's bad.
Oops!
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Gold hits another high today at $1309 an oz!
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Gold hits another high today at $1309 an oz!
Who was it that said there was going to be a crash in gold months ago?
Wasnt it some idiot calling you ziggy?
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Who was it that said there was going to be a crash in gold months ago?
Wasnt it some idiot calling you ziggy?
Hmmm...it appears my bitter, butthurt stalker may have...yet again... resurfaced to cast aspersions on my good name. :o I beseech you my dear PEA BRAIN, what act of PROOF do you have that shows my leading our dear brother "Ziggy" astray? If this...smoking gun, if you will...could be produced forthwith, it would be most appreciated. Otherwise, without the necessary evidence, your unwarranted attacks would be akin to a jilted lover. Or perhaps, a desperate obsessive? Or most likely what I do indeed fear. Yes, that you are in fact, a BITTER, BUTTHURT, STALKER. I shall await your proof, PEA BRAIN. 8)
While we are in Neuro's thread...might I ask you PEA whether you are a fan of Neuro's assessments. Pretty spot on and seems to be highly knowledgeable, right? You post frequently in his thread PEA BRAIN, so I thought I'd ask.
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(http://i56.tinypic.com/35big48.jpg)
ATMs That Sell Gold Bars Are Coming Soon to America
| September 27, 2010 | 12:07 PM EDT
A German firm that installs and manages gold vending machines aims to introduce them into the United States this year as it expands rapidly to take advantage of demand for bullion in times of economic uncertainty.
http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/39381947
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(http://i56.tinypic.com/35big48.jpg)
ATMs That Sell Gold Bars Are Coming Soon to America
| September 27, 2010 | 12:07 PM EDT
A German firm that installs and manages gold vending machines aims to introduce them into the United States this year as it expands rapidly to take advantage of demand for bullion in times of economic uncertainty.
http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/39381947
Buy high? Not a good time to buy gold. Great for those who bought low a long time ago.
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Buy high? Not a good time to buy gold. Great for those who bought low a long time ago.
People on here were saying that 800 was high. As long as the Government, Fed and central banks around the world keep doing what they are doing gold will continue its rise. I said that on this board a long time ago and heard negative comments back then too.
Gold futures for December delivery, the most active contract, rose $6.50 to $1,314.80 an ounce in global trading, surpassing its previous intra-day trading high of $1,311.80 reached Tuesday.
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If gold is too much for some, there is always silver. It hit $22 and also shows no sign of stopping.
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a pullback then a push through 1150 is a high possibility imo. i don't get the feeling Market will 'selloff' (justified or not) in next 3 months.
-NT
Do you feel more money is going into stocks and precious metals because there is another growing fear of a type of currency issue.
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People on here were saying that 800 was high. As long as the Government, Fed and central banks around the world keep doing what they are doing gold will continue its rise. I said that on this board a long time ago and heard negative comments back then too.
Gold futures for December delivery, the most active contract, rose $6.50 to $1,314.80 an ounce in global trading, surpassing its previous intra-day trading high of $1,311.80 reached Tuesday.
it's gonna keep going through the roof!!!
The Central European banks just announced the other day that they were going to stop selling gold.
What do you think is going to happen now that the flood of gold on the market will stop? yep you guessed it.
It is going to soar higher than fireworks on the 4th of July.
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as the dollar plunges lower and interest rates remain near 0%, precious metals should continue heading higher.
-NT
Would a falling dollar explain the rise in stocks as well?
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how are GDP numbers "fixed" for Wall Street?
GDP for last quarter was 2.4%, that number was revised lower to 1.6%
this quarters GDP came in at *drum roll* 1.7% (better than expected!) ;)
-NT
And it will be revised lower when no one is paying attention. Just like all of the the weekly jobless claim reports.
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People on here were saying that 800 was high. As long as the Government, Fed and central banks around the world keep doing what they are doing gold will continue its rise. I said that on this board a long time ago and heard negative comments back then too.
Gold futures for December delivery, the most active contract, rose $6.50 to $1,314.80 an ounce in global trading, surpassing its previous intra-day trading high of $1,311.80 reached Tuesday.
The next bubble. Sounds just like what we heard about housing from the late 90s to 2007.
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Gold hits another record high as the dollar falls
LONDON Oct 5 (Reuters) - Gold hit a record high above $1,323 an ounce on Tuesday as the euro rose to a session high versus the dollar, traders said.
Spot gold XAU= touched an all-time high at $1,324.15 an ounce and was at $1,324.20 an ounce by 0742 GMT, versus $1,315.20 an ounce on Monday
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The next bubble. Sounds just like what we heard about housing from the late 90s to 2007.
ok its a bubble, you happy now? :-\
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ok its a bubble, you happy now? :-\
If the GOP takes back the congress and cuts Obama's nuts off like they should, gold will fall a bit.
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If the GOP takes back the congress and cuts Obama's nuts off like they should, gold will fall a bit.
Their past record doesnt provide much encouragement. Up to $1328 now.
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Their past record doesnt provide much encouragement.
I agree - but gridlock will be good like it was in the 1990s. We don't even have a budget!
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I agree - but gridlock will be good like it was in the 1990s. We don't even have a budget!
Both parties serve one master and untill that head gets cut off I don't see much changing. ($1332)
Its a race to the bottom.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Bank of Japan lowered its key interest rate Tuesday to virtually 0%, citing concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.
While the reduction was slight -- the rate was cut to a range between 0% and 0.1% from 0.1% -- the Bank of Japan said it was necessary to launch a "comprehensive monetary easing policy," due to the slowdown in the pace of Japan's recovery.
As part of its efforts to boost the economy, the central bank also said it would purchase $60 billion (¥5 trillion) of government bonds and other assets.
In its policy statement, the Bank of Japan cited concerns about heightened uncertainty in the United States and the appreciation of its currency -- the yen, whose strength has hurt exports recently. Last month, the Japanese government said it would intervene in the currency market, buying up dollars to try and rein in the yen's record run.
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Ah, Japan! They have been concerned about he pace of economic recovery in their nation for the last 20 years.
I think they're doing it wrong....
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More inflation, POMO and cheap money. Hooray. Those that are closest to it reap all of the rewards and profits while we, the middle class and such, pay a horrible price....gas, food, heating fuel etc go up in price.
This will be bad.
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More inflation, POMO and cheap money. Hooray. Those that are closest to it reap all of the rewards and profits while we, the middle class and such, pay a horrible price....gas, food, heating fuel etc go up in price.
This will be bad.
Light crude is only $18 away from triple digits.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s prices rose in September to the highest level in at least 21 months, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., as the world’s largest retailer scaled back discounts from earlier this year.
Prices for produce climbed as Wal-Mart offered almost no discounts on food last month, Grom said. Price cuts on items such as cereal and ketchup failed to attract as many consumers as Wal-Mart anticipated, dragging down sales in the latest quarter, U.S. stores chief William Simon said last month.
Produce accounted for 7 of the 31 items in the basket, with prices 10 percent higher in September than the previous month. Prices for dairy products rose 2 percent, and meat was unchanged.
70% of Americans Live Paycheck to Paycheck!
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Light crude is only $18 away from triple digits.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s prices rose in September to the highest level in at least 21 months, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co., as the world’s largest retailer scaled back discounts from earlier this year.
Prices for produce climbed as Wal-Mart offered almost no discounts on food last month, Grom said. Price cuts on items such as cereal and ketchup failed to attract as many consumers as Wal-Mart anticipated, dragging down sales in the latest quarter, U.S. stores chief William Simon said last month.
Produce accounted for 7 of the 31 items in the basket, with prices 10 percent higher in September than the previous month. Prices for dairy products rose 2 percent, and meat was unchanged.
70% of Americans Live Paycheck to Paycheck!
But according to our Govt. inflation is almost non-existant! Good thing they totally doctor the numbers and the number itself "excludes food and fuel".
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If the GOP takes back the congress and cuts Obama's nuts off like they should, gold will fall a bit.
That'll be a good thing... a better opportunity to stock up. :)
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http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4955194n&tag=related;photovideo
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Gold just hit 1360/oz. Setting records every couple of days now.
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to this point every Fed gimmick has failed to stabilize US economy. UE, real estate and consumer borrowing are still significantly depressed. to complicate matters economic 'data' can no longer be trusted as infinite downside revisions are now the norm.
imo QE2 is just around the corner. this repeated gimmick will further depress the dollar, pushing stock & precious metal prices higher.
-NT
I believe the weekly Jobless Claims reports have been revised down 23 out of the last 24 weeks....how nice. That happened with GDP as well. See a pattern?
It is all they know how to do. Print money, drop rates, QE...that's it, they know nothing else. They don't know its affect on the middle class, the lower class or anyone that isn't heavily involved on Wall Street, or major banks or hedge funds or whatever. QE2 will be it for the dollar, it is going to be big if it is enacted. Even Benny Boy said that 2 trillion ( TWO TRILLION) would do little to "improve" anything. The name of the game is now to extend and prop up for as long as possible. Equities are key as people are dumb enough to believe that the DOW/Nasdaq/S&P are actually connected to the over all economy. 401k's and IRA's and pensions have to meet their bottom lines, period.
The employment report was bad...again, but the market is up not because of the economy, but because the FED (and in effect the Govt./Banks) now is under pressure to start QE2.
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Even Benny Boy said that 2 trillion ( TWO TRILLION) would do little to "improve" anything. The name of the game is now to extend and prop up for as long as possible. Equities are key as people are dumb enough to believe that the DOW/Nasdaq/S&P are actually connected to the over all economy.
Ill try to find the quote but from memory I believe there were suggestions that this figure be as high as $7 trillion.
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Expectation of Fed action, Fed gimmicks, a dollar in absolute free-fall......and look where gold is.
This is a market that is in a (headfake) bull run with U.E. close to 10% and expectations of that U.E. to stay near those levels for the next 2-3 years? Stagnant wages, record levels of U.E./underemployed doesn't bode well for the expansion of the largest part of our economy (70%)....strange days we live in if that is not fazing the market. This really shows you just how bad things are.
The Fed will do what it wants, plain and simple. To many political factors to let things , god forbid, operate on fundamentals.
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$1382/oz. and no sign of slowing down. :)
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$1382/oz. and no sign of slowing down. :)
The Fed/Banks have lost control of that market, not completely because gold should be much, much higher but they can't keep it completely suppressed anymore.
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S&P tested 1185 on laughable volume.
market remains overbought.
be wary of a pullback/correction at these levels.
Looks like there's going to be a moderate pullback tomorrow...Nasdaq e-mini futures are down about 1.5%...Appl reported weak earnings, and is down about 20 dollars a share in the aftermarket.
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Crude slides on dollar bounce, eyeing strike.
Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures prices fell on
Tuesday, pressured by a stronger dollar and concerns about economic growth
and corporate earnings that weighed on equities markets.
What do you think about the Ammo market? ;D
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Grab some before it goes back up. ;D
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still bullish precious metals.
just looking for a pullback. ;)
-NT
:)
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Gold ends lower, falls 3% on the week.
SAN FRANCISCO 10-22-10 (MarketWatch) — Gold futures closed a volatile week with a modest drop Friday, as investors waited to hear more about currencies from the gathering of world finance leaders in South Korea.
The metal had advanced marginally earlier on, but lost steam as the session progressed and as the dollar turned higher, taking away some support.
Gold was down 3.4% for the week, its first losing week in six.
Gold stumbled 1.4% Thursday, as the dollar strengthened. The metal has had a volatile week, which included a dip of 2.6% on Tuesday.
That's just a buying opportunity. :)
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If it is is POMO day than it will be a "Green Day". Like fucking clockwork.
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In other words -until obamaCare is scrapped, cap & trade killed, card check shelved, and the remaining insanity ended - businesses are on strike.
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Grab some before it goes back up. ;D
Well, that didnt take very long. Already close to strking distance from the record high, (for now anyway).
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QE2 is nothing more than a disguised $600 Billion Fed spending stimulus program.
Instead of calling it QE2, ...they should instead call it The Titanic! ;D
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Gold back at 1375/oz. Silver over 25.
On another note, Freddie Mac is asking for more money.
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Gold back at 1375/oz. Silver over 25.
On another note, Freddie Mac is asking for more money.
It will never stop sucking money from us, never ever. The GSE's are still making the same shit loans to shit people and nothing has changed.The Dems had Congress for 4 years and the Presidency for 2 and nothing has changed. The banks are still To Big To Fail...even bigger now after consolidations and more monopolies, the new regs. are but band aids on gun shot wounds and the Fed is even further out of control...if that was even possible and the dollar is now, again, being taken out back into a dark alley,stabbed to death and left to die.
The markets mean nothing. They aren't free anymore and do not act on fundamentals. What good is the Feds plan to boost the stop market and give people the illusion of wealth if food and fuel continue to march higher? UE is still at 9.6% and is predicted to stay above 9% for the next year or so...plus hours/income is down/stagnant.
This is like crazy world with some mad scientist at the helm. I'm still not sure if Idiot Ben actually knows what he is doing. Or maybe he does.
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You know, just when I think it cant get any worse or more bizarre, it actually does.
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That's just a buying opportunity. :)
Up $50 an oz within the last 24 hours? I guess I was right huh? ;)
Hang onto your hats folks, ...this is going to be a very interesting ride.
Is it just me, ...or does anyone else get the feeling that the other shoe is going to drop this week or next?
There's an uneasy feeling in the pit of my gut that says something is about to bust wide open, ...but I can't quite put my finger on what. Tho my spidey senses keep tingling. hmmm... maybe I should just turn up the thermostat.
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Grab some before it goes back up. ;D
Too late. ;D
4 dollars away from $1400.
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Too late. ;D
4 dollars away from $1400.
We are really in crazy times. Why even read economic stuff anymore/ its like the twilight zone.
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We are really in crazy times. Why even read economic stuff anymore/ its like the twilight zone.
Its still not too late but its getting there. Buy some silver.
Gold continues its push to $1,400. The catalyst: Goldman's David Greely has just released a report on gold saying that: "we expect that gold prices will continue to rise over the next 12 months to our $1650/toz target as US monetary policy remains accommodative and US real interest rates remain low. Further, the Federal Reserve’s return to quantitative easing and the movement of gold prices to these new record highs could spark renewed investor demand for gold, which has been remarkably subdued in recent months. This represents upside risk to both our forecasts and to gold prices." As Goldman's last call on gold marked a temporary peak in the appreciation, as we expected, this time the top ticking effect will likely be lost. We believe that $1,400 gold to be breached as soon as today.
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German Finance Minister Blasts Geithner And Warns: "The US Has Lived On Borrowed Money For Too Long"
Joe Weisenthal | Nov. 8, 2010, 6:46 AM | 446 | 9
A A A
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________________________ ________________________ ________________________ _______
Wolfgang Schauble -- the German Finance Minister who made headlines last week blasting QE2 -- takes on Tim Geithner and the currency-war debate in an excellent, in-depth interview in Der Spiegel.
In particular, he takes on the idea pushed by Tim Geithner, that the world's major exporters have some sort of obligation to limit their current account surpluses via the currency market.
Naturally Schauble rejects this view:
SPIEGEL: But the German economy benefits from the fact that German industry has focused primarily on foreign markets and wages have hardly gone up in years. The Americans see this as unfair.
Schäuble: The German export successes are not the result of some sort of currency manipulation, but of the increased competitiveness of companies. The American growth model, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis. The United States lived on borrowed money for too long, inflating its financial sector unnecessarily and neglecting its small and mid-sized industrial companies. There are many reasons for America's problems, but they don't include German export surpluses.
SPIEGEL: The US government sees it differently. It wants to see German exports to the United States curtailed in the future once they reach a certain threshold. Will you give in to the pressure?
Schäuble: The proposal is not acceptable for Germany under any circumstances. If we were to introduce such measures, we would be restricting international competition. But for years we, together with the Americans, have believed that world trade needs to be opened up further. We should stick to that approach and, for example, press ahead with the Doha round to promote world trade. This would stimulate global growth far more effectively than a bilateral agreement on quotas.
Read the whole thing >
Tags: Wolfgang Schauble, Germany, Manufacturing, Currency War | Get Alerts for these topics »
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wolfgang-schauble-the-us-has-lived-on-borrowed-money-for-too-long-2010-11#ixzz14hAAsl6l
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Can we get some moderation in this thread? Since when are pyramid schemes allowed on this board?
Just notice there's a 30% spread on the bullion Jaguars company sells..
Buy 37.00
Sell 29.50
Market makers always get paid..
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Someone need to block jag from peddling her snake oil on this thread.
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If Gold goes to 5k, Dear God, we are so screwed in other areas.
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If Gold goes to 5k, Dear God, we are so screwed in other areas.
Zimbabwean style hyperinflation wouldn't be to cool.
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Zimbabwean style hyperinflation wouldn't be to cool.
Gasoline and oil is skyrocketing at the worst time.
At least beer so far has not gotten more expensive. ;D
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Gasoline and oil is skyrocketing at the worst time.
At least beer so far has not gotten more expensive. ;D
Shit is crazy..Prices are increasing so fast. However, these bogus economic indicators say otherwise. Just heard from another friend that she's getting close to a 30% increase in Health Insurance premiums..
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This list came from another thread : http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=214118&page=281
it seems the cuts just keep coming despite the reccesion being over.
Jobless claims estimate 433K. Actual 457K. Going the wrong way.
MGM Studio Files for Bankruptcy,
Rangle and Waters now have to face the corruption hearings they have been stalling until after the elections.
BO to spend 200M a day in India that will not create jobs here.
Ben will spend up to 1 T that will not create jobs here but enrich the bankers more.
A first priority might be to establish a budget for this fiscal year. They didn't deem it worthy to do before the election.
Here is just one day job cut potential.
"NJ Gov. Says - 1,200 Layoffs in January
Several Chicago Firms - Total 1,000+ by Year end
Kohler Co - 750
Saint Clare’s Health System NJ - 100+
Biogen Idec Inc - 650
STX Finland ( International ) - up to 350
Town of New Windsor - 5 or 6 Possible
Update: Sitel - Plans on 300 Job Cuts
Saint Barnabas Health Care System - 690
Jack Cooper Transport Co. Inc - 195
"Cincinnati police officials have proposed laying off 144 officers and demoting 160 others to save more than $10 million next year."
"Genzyme starts 1st phase of job cuts by eliminating 392 positions, seeks to cut total of 1,000"
MA.
"Hilton trimming 101 positions in Memphis "
"Some 171 United Space Alliance workers at Kennedy Space Center will receive layoff notices by today. Their last day will be Jan. 7."
"Clear Wire The Kirkland, Washington-based company has 4,200 employees, putting the cuts at about 630 jobs."
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Shit is crazy..Prices are increasing so fast. However, these bogus economic indicators say otherwise. Just heard from another friend that she's getting close to a 30% increase in Health Insurance premiums..
mine is up dramatically too
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mine is up dramatically too
Seems like everyone that i know who has insurance is going to get hit hard. I thought Healthcare costs were going to go down.. :-\
This has to be reason enough to impeach a president...
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Whats been interesting lately is just how much more the msm is talking about the Fed and how it's actions effect the cost of everyday items.
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What people don't really understand is that the fiscal recklessness of the govt is driving the monetary policy for the need to keep printing money like this.
You can't run 1.5 Trillion dollar deficits like this and keep piling on and on and on on and without completely destroying the currency.
And whats worse is that Obama/Ben/Timmy/ etc etc want even more of this craziness!
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Gold just hit $1418/oz. ;D
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Gold just hit $1418/oz. ;D
Ther worst part is that oil prices are skyrocketing just as we are heading into winter.
This govt anfd the FED are literally stealing from people and yet TEAM KNEEPAD applauds this and trashes Palin for speaking out on this, even when it was demonstrated that the wsj reporter was dead wrong on this.
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November 09, 2010
Bernanke's Cowardice Has Sealed Our Fate
By Monty Pelerin
________________________ ______________________
The day after the election, the Federal Reserve launched QE2, the second round of Quantitative Easing. This public relations euphemism attempts to hide the fact that the Fed is "printing money" (the Fed actually does it electronically these days). "Cheating, debasing and inflating," as in stealing from the public, is a more accurate description.
Bernanke indicated from 600 to 850 billion additional dollars would be created. To put this in perspective, the Tarp package was in this range. The total Federal Reserve balance sheet was $829 billion at the end of 2004 and only $869 billion in August 2007. At the end of 2009 it had ballooned to over $2,200 billion. This announcement means it is headed to $3,000 billion (3 trillion).
Ben Bernanke weakly defended his action with the following justifications:
... further support to the economy is needed
Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth.
higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.
The first two statements are true as stated, but unlikely to be affected by additional QE. The third is partially true, although it is unclear that his action will raise stock prices. Furthermore, empirical data is not supportive of the alleged relationship between stock prices and spending (see the Kass reference below).
Many economists and analysts believe that the Fed actions will not help. Several believe they will actually make conditions worse (two examples are Doug Kass and Pimco's El Erian).
The Real Reason for QE2
Mr. Bernanke's justification for committing nearly another trillion dollars does not meet the "smell" test. In prior life, Professor Bernanke would flunk an Econ 101 student for such weak justification (of course we know no one really gets an F at Princeton, no matter how deserved).
Mr. Bernanke's performance was a charade meant to hide the fact that the government is now illiquid! Mr. Bernanke instituted QE2 because the Federal Government has reached the point where it cannot pay its bills.
If the Fed does not buy government bonds (print money), checks will stop for programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements, military pay, etc.
The Madoff Model of government just ended. There are no longer enough bond buyers or taxpayers to pay for the profligate spending of the US government.
For more than a decade, responsible economists and analysts warned how this situation had to end. That point has apparently just been reached as a result of some of these reasons:
We are increasingly viewed overseas as a profligate, fiscally irresponsible country with no willingness to change.
Our debt levels have become dangerously high, raising the probability of sovereign default.
Our annual deficit is 3 to 4 times larger than ever before and looks like there is no political will to address it. Interest rates are too low to compensate for the perceived risk.
Foreign countries that supported us are now either unwilling or unable to purchase our debt.
Solving Insolvency
The root cause of the liquidity problem is insolvency. Insolvency is a condition where eventually obligations cannot be met. Illiquidity then results. QE2 provides liquidity, but does nothing to solve the insolvency issue.
Unless the insolvency problem is solved, illiquidity will continue. From a mathematical standpoint, it is possible to solve the insolvency problem. From a practical or political standpoint, it is likely impossible.
Our funded Federal Debt is almost 100% of GDP. Our unfunded social obligations are about another $100 trillion. The total net worth of the country is about $55 trillion. Government has promised benefits that are twice what everything in the country is worth. To understand the math, see Spiraling to Bankruptcy.
Laurence Kotlikoff referred to a recent International Monetary Fund assessment of the US financial condition:
... the IMF has effectively pronounced the U.S. bankrupt. Section 6 of the July 2010 Selected Issues Paper says: "The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today's federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates." It adds that "closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 percent of U.S. GDP."
The government would have to double every tax it collects (including payroll taxes) to run 5% surpluses for decades in order to bring government obligations into manageable range. Such tax increases would plunge the US and probably the world into an economic Dark Ages.
Alternatively, current government spending could be cut by about 50%. Managing spending forward so that a 5% surplus was maintained would also work.
Bernanke's Morton's Fork
Mr. Bernanke was faced with two choices, neither of which were good. He could have refused to initiate another round of QE, which would have forced the government to make tough decisions. Such action might have put the economy into another Great Depression. He likely would have lost his job and been blamed for any economic difficulties that followed.
He chose the other option -- provide the needed funds. As such, he chose to be the Enabler-in-Chief, reinforcing the out-of-control government fiscal policies. This choice likely enabled him to keep his job (for the time being) and made him appear to be the White Knight responsive to economic needs.
Unfortunately for the country, his choice makes matters worse, much worse.
The Road Ahead
With QE2, the government will be able to pay its bills. If the shortfall were temporary, Bernanke's actions might be considered prudent. Of course if the shortfall were temporary, the government would be able to borrow in the marketplace.
Without a solution to spending excesses and social commitments that cannot be met, there is no end to our shortfalls. Welcome to QE2, soon to be followed by QE3, QE4 ... and hyperinflation.
QE2 is just another step toward "banana republic" status. We are on the same road travelled by Argentina, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany and many others who destroyed their currencies.
These countries did not intend that result. Each step was justified based on the expediency of keeping the government going. As Hayek pointed out:
I do not think it is an exaggeration to say history is largely a history of inflation, usually inflations engineered by governments for the gain of governments.
In every case, including our own, the government had already failed. Its attempt to survive made matters much worse for its citizens.
QE2 may only represent the first step, but its effects alone are apt to be profound. Pimco's Bill Gross anticipates it will produce a 20% decline in the value of the dollar. If you were China or Japan, would you want to buy Treasury Bonds? Would you continue to hold dollar-denominated assets? These types of considerations trigger currency runs.
Mr. Bernanke has deferred the day of reckoning. His action will not prevent government collapse, it will ensure it, along with collapses in the currency, economy and likely society itself. This little man, unelected and accountable to no one, has just sentenced the country to an Economic Apocalypse.
Milton Friedman's concern seems especially appropriate:
The power to determine the quantity of money... is too important, too pervasive, to be exercised by a few people, however public-spirited, if there is any feasible alternative. There is no need for such arbitrary power... Any system which gives so much power and so much discretion to a few men, [so] that mistakes - excusable or not - can have such far reaching effects, is a bad system. It is a bad system to believers in freedom just because it gives a few men such power without any effective check by the body politic - this is the key political argument against an independent central bank.
How Will This End?
There is no pleasant ending. Political activity over the past fifty years guaranteed that. As Ludwig von Mises observed:
Credit expansion can bring about a temporary boom. But such a fictitious prosperity must end in a general depression of trade, a slump.
The best solution is for Mr. Bernanke to cease and desist from his QE policy. That would require the political class to face up to its problems. It would require a massive roll-back of the welfare state and government. It would require resizing government to a level that productive citizens would support. Transitional hardships would occur, including civil unrest and possibly a Depression.
The worst solution is the one that Mr. Bernanke has selected. If he stays on this course, fiat money will become worthless. So will Social Security checks, because they will have no purchasing power. All fixed income and savings will be wiped out. The middle class will be financially destroyed.
Markets will cease to function except on a barter system. Food and other necessities will be in short supply, possibly to the extent of health risks developing. Unimaginable civil unrest is likely.
A Greater Depression is assured. Unlike the first Great Depression, citizens would be without any financial wherewithal. Their savings and fixed income will have been stolen from them via hyperinflation. In short, it would be the worst Economic Hell imaginable.
Mr. Bernanke was unwilling to tell you what is happening. His action has moved us into the eye of a massive storm. Do not be lulled into complacency for as von Mises stated:
A fiat-money inflation can be carried on only as long as the masses do not become aware of the fact that the government is committed to such a policy.
Now you know and others will pick up on this quickly. Make like the political elite and protect yourselves from the Level Six economic hurricane that Mr. Bernanke is stoking.
The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception. Friedrich Hayek
Monty Pelerin blogs at www.economicnoise
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/11/bernankes_cowardice_has_sealed.html
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Fed Pushes U.S. Economy Into An Inflationary Death Spiral
The Market Oracle ^ | 11-9-2010 | Michael Pento
Posted on Tuesday, November 09, 2010 9:59:24 AM by blam
Fed Pushes U.S. Economy Into An Inflationary Death Spiral
Economics / Inflation
Nov 09, 2010 - 03:42 AM
By: Michael Pento
________________________ ________________________ ________
It seems the Fed has given up on the idea that the country can build a viable and stable economy through the conventional means. Instead, our central bank has resorted to once again growing GDP and increasing employment by the creation of asset bubbles. This is a dangerous game that no one, least of all the Fed, knows how to play.
We learned this past Wednesday that the FOMC decided to increase its purchases of longer-dated Treasuries by $600 billion within the next eight months. That means the Fed is on course to fund about 75% of our annual deficit! Such figures are the stock in trade of banana republics. While most of the rest of the world is fighting inflation and strengthening their currencies, we are doing everything in our power to end the dollar's status as the world's reserve.
Canada, China, India, Brazil, and Australia have all recently taken steps to raise interest rates and/or curtail bank lending. Compare that to the US, which has left interest rates at near-zero for almost two years. While other central bankers are tamping down expansionary rhetoric, Fed Chairman Bernanke is on record saying that he will do everything in his power to push up inflation (which he considers too low) and dilute the dollar. Foreign central banks and other investors may soon reconsider their plans to park cash in dollar-denominated assets. In fact, there has been a series of angry statements from top economic policymakers in Beijing, Berlin, Moscow, and Sao Paolo that show rising discontent with Washington.
The Fed rationalized its decision to upset the global monetary order in a November 4th op-ed by Chairman Bernanke entitled, "What the Fed did and why." Here's an excerpt:
"Although asset purchases are relatively unfamiliar as a tool of monetary policy, some concerns about this approach are overstated. Critics have, for example, worried that it will lead to excessive increases in the money supply and ultimately to significant increases in inflation. Our earlier use of this policy approach had little effect on the amount of currency in circulation or on other broad measures of the money supply, such as bank deposits. Nor did it result in higher inflation. We have made all necessary preparations, and we are confident that we have the tools to unwind these policies at the appropriate time. The Fed is committed to both parts of its dual mandate and will take all measures necessary to keep inflation low and stable."
But the facts contradict Bernanke's claims that monetary policy has not pushed up inflation. The Fed began the current round of accommodation in September of 2007 with a 50 basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate. At that time, the M2 money stock was $7.40 trillion. It has since jumped 18.5% to $8.77 billion. This increase is showing up in the form of higher prices.
The 19 commodities that make up the CRB Index have soared 55% since the beginning of 2009. Unless the Chairman desires to return to an environment where oil is trading at $147 a barrel, these surging commodity prices are already placing consumers and corporations under inflationary duress.
Here's where the danger lies ahead. Before the recession began in 2007, the ratio between M2 and the monetary base was about 10:1. If the Fed sticks to its announced schedule, the size of the base should grow from $1.96 trillion to about $2.6 trillion by June of 2011. Once banks start lending again and expanding base money through the fractional reserve system, M2 could increase exponentially. An increase in the money supply to $26 trillion (in line with the historic 10-to-1 ratio) would result in a major inflationary shock. However, even if the money multiplier were to remain much lower, the M2 money stock would still be much higher than today. In fact, the compounded annual increase of M2 in the last 4 weeks is currently over 9%.
Unless Bernanke has a "road to Damascus" moment, the money supply will continue to grow and inflation will accelerate over the course of the next few years. To make matters much worse, the interest expense on the nation's debt could reach over 40% of all revenue by the year 2015.
Faced with negative real interest rates, rapidly rising inflation, and a chronically weak dollar, foreign holders of US Treasury debt and other dollar-denominated holdings may begin to lose their nerve. They may start to repatriate their savings and thereby send Treasury yields soaring. The Fed - which is the Treasury's buyer of last resort - will then be faced with a perilous decision. The central bank will have to either join foreign sellers of US debt in sending interest rates higher (in the hopes of giving the dollar some footing and allowing high rates to encourage the return of real buyers) or ramp up the printing presses to keep the long end of the yield curve from spiking. It should be obvious that the Fed has already made that decision. They will never allow rates to rise. The debt will be monetized.
I have no doubt that Bernanke will be remarkably successful in his stated goal of driving inflation higher. I simply disagree with his nonchalance about the long-term consequences. There is currently no easy exit strategy for the Fed. There is only the prospect of Americans suffering through either a deflationary depression or hyperinflation. To survive such storm requires careful planning. If only we could convince the big chief to stop doing his rain dance...
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Chinese Credit Rater Downgrades U.S.
Wall Street Journal ^ | Tuesday November 9, 2010 | Matt Phillips
________________________ ________________________ ____________________
Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., the Chinese rating company that was recently rejected in its bid to be an officially recognized bond rater in the U.S., just downgraded the entire U.S. The always objective Xinhua has the “scoop.”
The United States has lost its double-A credit rating with Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd., the first domestic rating agency in China, due to its new round of quantitative easing policy.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
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Isn't the definition of insanity trying the same thing over and over again expecting different results?
Pumping more money into the system isn't going to solve anything.
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returning to the pre Nixon 'gold standard' is not likely to happen.
US monetary system would collapse imo.
-NT
My thoughts exactly..
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New Zillow Report Warns Of "Unprecedented Decline" In Home Values And No Stabilization In Q3
Business Insider ^ | 11/10/2010 | Gus Lubin
________________________ ________________________ _____
Zillow just released a devastating third quarter housing report. Basically every major indicator is crashing:
* The decline in home values accelerated in September, dropping 0.4% month-over-month
* Foreclosures reached an all-time high
* A record 23.2% of mortgages are now underwater
The double dip -- already a rare phenomenon -- is now entering an unprecedented free-fall. Zillow economist Stan Humphries says prices won't hit bottom until next summer at the earliest, as foreclosure activity grows.
Humphries warns: “While not unexpected, the unceasing declines in home values signal that we’re in for a long, bleak winter of continued troubles for the housing market. The length and depth of the current housing recession is rivaling the Great Depression’s real estate downturn, and, with encouraging signs fading, will easily eclipse it in the coming months."
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
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Good to hear, maybe I'll pick up a second house next summer =) On a serious note though, housing prices are still overinfalted, so hopefully we'll see a return to what they should be value at, or at least closer to it.
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Good to hear, maybe I'll pick up a second house next summer =) On a serious note though, housing prices are still overinfalted, so hopefully we'll see a return to what they should be value at, or at least closer to it.
You want to laugh - i had ENDLESS arguments with realtors and mortgage brokers on this issue 2005-2009 that house was a major scame and vastly overpriced and they laughed at me.
Here is the question I ask:
"CAN THE AVERAGE SALARY AFFORD THE AVERAGE HOME?"
We are still GROSSLY overpriced real estate wise and in my mind have a LONG way to go downward.
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The "Current Housing Recession [Will Eclipse] the Great Depression’s Real Estate Downturn
Washington's Blog/Zero Hedge ^ | November 10, 2010 | Washington's Blog
________________________ ________________________ ________________________ ______________________
Zillow's Stan Humphries said:
The length and depth of the current housing recession is rivaling the Great Depression’s real estate downturn, and, with encouraging signs fading, will easily eclipse it in the coming months.During the Great Depression, home prices fell 25.9 percent in five years. The U.S. housing market is now down around 25 percent from its peak in 2006.
As housing price expert Robert Shiller pointed out in September 2008:
Home price declines are already approaching those in the Great Depression, when they plunged 30% during the 1930s [i.e. over a 10-year period]. With prices already down almost 20%, it's not a stretch to think we might exceed that drop this time around. As I wrote in December 2008:
In the greatest financial crash of all time - the crash of the 1340s in Italy .... real estate prices fell by 50 percent by 1349 in Florence when boom became bust. How does that compare to 2001-2007? The price of Southern California homes is already down 41% [that was before the first-time homebuyer credit, Hamp and other governmental programs temporarily boosted prices]. Southern California hasn't fallen as fast as some other areas, and we're nowhere near the bottom of the market.
Moreover, the bubble was not confined to the U.S. There was a worldwide bubble in real estate.
Indeed, the Economist magazine wrote in 2005 that the worldwide boom in residential real estate prices in this decade was "the biggest bubble in history". The Economist noted that - at that time - the total value of residential property in developed countries rose by more than $30 trillion, to $70 trillion, over the past five years – an increase equal to the combined GDPs of those nations.
Housing bubbles are now bursting in China, France, Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, and many other regions.
And the bubble in commercial real estate is also bursting world-wide. See this. In addition, the percentage of Americans who owned houses during the 1930s was much lower than today, which means that a larger portion of the public is being hurt from falling home prices today as compared to the Great Depression.
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monitor Oil & Coal as seasonality effect takes hold.
-NT
Just in time. >:( >:(
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Wow -- Check Out How Blatantly Our Government Misled Us With The October Jobs Numbers!
Henry Blodget | Nov. 13, 2010, 9:42 AM | 3,939 | 31
________________________ ________________________
And now, for my next trick, I will create "jobs".
Image: The Associated Press
See Also:
Those Jobs Numbers Were Much Worse Than They LookedThis Is The First Respectable Jobs Report In Years... And It Was Still Full Of ProblemsHere's What No One Told You About The Supposedly Great Jobs Report
Remember last Friday's payrolls numbers--the ones that blew away expectations about the number of jobs created and got everyone talking about recovery again?
Well, even at the time those payroll numbers were confusing, because the other part of the jobs report--the "household survey"--showed yet another crappy number.
But by pointing to the crappy household number and ignoring the payroll number, the bears seemed to be trying to make lemons out of lemonade.
But it turns out that there was a simple reason why the payroll numbers looked so good--a reason that had nothing to do with underlying strength of the jobs market.
What was that reason?
The government changed the "seasonal adjustment" it made to the payroll numbers--and, in so doing, boosted the number of "jobs" created in October by 100,000.Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens (via John Mauldin) explains:
" 'The seasonal bar which the payroll data must jump was (inexplicably and dramatically) lowered from prior Octobers.
" 'Thus, in October 2009, the BLS set the bar at 870,000 jobs, similar to the 840,000 it anticipated in October 2008. This year, by contrast, it lowered the bar to 768,000. Mumbo, jumbo, payrolls presented "an upside surprise" of 100,000.'
Alan Abelson of Barrons (again via John Mauldin) adds the following:
"According to John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics, the BLS' fiddling with the figures via what he calls 'seasonal-factor games' actually created 200,000 phantom jobs last month. John cites such finagling as the reason his prediction of an October decline and a rise in the jobless rate was wrong. It also explains why seasonally adjusted payrolls were revised upward by 110,000 in September, including 56,000 in August."
In other words, it wasn't that there were a surprising number of jobs created in October. It was that the government changed its "seasonal adjustment" assumption in a way that made it look as though there were a surprising number of jobs created in October.
Now, seasonal adjustment is an art not a science. And maybe the new seasonal adjustment is more defensible than the old one. But if our government is going to publish a number like this that represents such a major "surprise," we would expect it to at least be upfront about the reasons for the surprise. And in this case those reasons had NOTHING to do with the jobs market, and EVERYTHING to do with the seasonal adustment assumption.
Tags: Economy, Jobs, Employment, Unemployment | Get Alerts for these topics »
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wow-check-out-how-blatantly-our-government-misled-us-with-the-october-jobs-numbers-2010-11#ixzz15Ckb0XFn
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Stranger and stranger grows the EU's bailout fund
By Jeremy Warner
(http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/files/2010/11/ecb_1633733c.jpg)
Anyone wanting to know just how daft and self defeating the EU’s latest utterences on the Permanent Crisis Resolution Mechanism (the structure through which sovereign bailouts would be conducted) really are, should take a look at the note just published by Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group. I’ve got no link for this, so I’ll quote his digest in full:
“The Eurozone’s credibility deficit is getting larger by the day. The most recent antics on the Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism are a breath-taking mixture of suicidal irresponsibility and farcical incoherence, and risk inflicting lasting damage to the recovery prospects of the most troubled peripheral countries and to the credibility of the eurozone’s economic governance framework.
“Germany had seemed determined to have agreement on a SDRM. But now from Soul, EU finance ministers tell us that that any SDRM would only apply to new debt issued after the mechanism has been approved and put in place, that is 2013 at the earliest. Debt currently outstanding, and any debt issued over at least the next two years, would therefore be safe. But this commitment is time-inconsistent, and therefore not fully credible. If by 2013 countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal are still in a shaky position, with weak fiscal accounts and weak growth, any new debt issued with SDRM clauses will carry exorbitant yields, inconsistent with debt sustainability.
“The EU would then have to choose between a full-fledged, open-ended bailout, and reneging on the promise that existing debt would not be restructured. Will German voters then accept higher taxes to save their profligate neighbors? Perhaps, but we can hardly take it for granted. The apparent time inconsistency of the Seoul promise implies that we might get the worst of both worlds: spreads will not come in significantly, as investors will doubt that existing debt is really safe, while high-debt countries will still hope that they will be helped and not left to the cruel mercy of the markets. We will get instability and bailouts rather than discipline.”
Germany thought it was making matters better by stressing that “haircuts” for private bondholders would apply only after the mechanism comes into force in 2013 and wouldn’t apply to any outstanding debt. This is what European finance ministers had to say about it all in a statement issued from the G20 in Seoul earlier today:
“At its meeting on the 29 Oct 2010 the European Council discussed the future arrangements for ensuring economic and financial stability in the European Union.
“Whatever the debate within the euro area about the future permanent crisis resolution mechanism and the potential private sector involvement in that mechanism we are clear that this does not apply to any outstanding debt and any programme under current instruments.
‘Any new mechanism would only come into effect after mid-2013 with no impact whatsoever on the current arrangements.
“The EFSF is already established and it’s activation does not require private sector involvement. We note that the role of the private sector in the future mechanism could include a range of different possibilities such as a voluntary commitment of institutional investors to maintain exposures, a commitment of private lenders to roll over existing debts or the inclusion of collective action clauses on future bond emissions of euro area member states”.
But as Mr Annunziata points out, unless countries such as Ireland, Greece, and Portugal, have by then got their finances back in order, which doesn’t seem likely, the yields demanded on new debt will be so high as to require a restructuring of existing debt anyway. Either that, or the rest of the eurozone would have to give an open ended guarantee.
This crisis is set to run and run.
P.S. Some understandable confusion of terminology is setting in here. The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) mentioned by the finance ministers is the existing €750bn fund set up last May to help countries with difficulty repaying their debts. The Permanent Crisis Resolution Mechanism (PCRM) is what they propose should replace it in 2013. I’m assuming that Mr Annunziata’s Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism is the same thing. All clear now?
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Keep your eyes on the foreclosure fraud hearings taking place tomorrow.
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Neuro,
What do you think of Schiff's latest bond fund?
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haven't any idea. too busy making money.
besides, schiff's whining depresses me.
-NT
:D ;)
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:D ;)
Yeah - show me a video side by side with your boy krugman to peter and lets see ho is more accurate.
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Ask Neuro not me, ------ He is the one who stated that Schiff is an annoying whiner.
He did not say Schiff is not accurate only that he does not like his tone.
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He did not say Schiff is not accurate only that he does not like his tone.
I didn't say he was not accurate in my post either. ??? You are not making sense, PEA.
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correct 33386. i tend to agree with schiff more than i disagree.
utilizing my market system requires blocking out all pundits whether i agree or disagree with their position. i can not remember the last time i watched CNBC or any other financial channel.
to accumulate wealth i only trust one person, and that person is me.
-NT
I thought you were coming to twitter soon?
Came you offer some insights into your system...Do you use Fundamental or technical analysis etc..?
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my system combines technical analysis with real life experience.
if i decide to offer my insight via another platform, i will structure it in a teaching format.
-NT
please do.
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Why was my commentary about the US Dollars bounce as a result of the recent Korean conflict deleted?
The US Dollar did get a bounce upon this news, as did gold. Do you not think this effects the dow?
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Are We In For Another Round Of Stagflation?
IBD Editorials ^ | November 26, 2010 | ALVARO VARGAS LLOSA
We are entering an era of high inflation, to judge by the massive growth of the money supply in the United States, Europe and Asia, and the stubbornness of central bankers who insist that high unemployment demands the creation of even more money.
The last time the world went through a similar period was the 1970s. The term that defined the era was "stagflation."
In a nutshell, stagflation back then was the result of a recession partly caused by stratospheric oil prices followed by the decision to print tons of money in the hope of inflating the economy out of unemployment.
In other words, stagnation was not so much because of oil prices; rather, it was the result of the monetary response to the stagnant environment that the high energy costs had helped create.
Inflation simply added a new ill to an already grave situation.
What is happening today is in essence not all that different.
The response to high unemployment caused by the recession has been a massive increase of the money supply.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
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Are We In For Another Round Of Stagflation?
IBD Editorials ^ | November 26, 2010 | ALVARO VARGAS LLOSA
We are entering an era of high inflation, to judge by the massive growth of the money supply in the United States, Europe and Asia, and the stubbornness of central bankers who insist that high unemployment demands the creation of even more money.
The last time the world went through a similar period was the 1970s. The term that defined the era was "stagflation."
In a nutshell, stagflation back then was the result of a recession partly caused by stratospheric oil prices followed by the decision to print tons of money in the hope of inflating the economy out of unemployment.
In other words, stagnation was not so much because of oil prices; rather, it was the result of the monetary response to the stagnant environment that the high energy costs had helped create.
Inflation simply added a new ill to an already grave situation.
What is happening today is in essence not all that different.
The response to high unemployment caused by the recession has been a massive increase of the money supply.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
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QFT!!!
Those of us who were around then, ...try to remember everything that happened during that period,
..and if you weren't around, ...grab a history book and learn. I also keenly remember what happened to GOLD.
It was a meteoric rise from $35 oz to over $800 oz, ...and I believe it's going to happen again.
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Weekly jobless claims climb 26,000 to 436,000 (WORSE THAN EXPECTED)
market watch ^ | 12/2/10
The number of workers who filed new claims for unemployment benefits rose 26,000 last week to 436,000, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected claims to rise to a seasonally adjusted 429,000 in the holiday-shortened week of Nov. 27.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
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Updated: Thu., Dec. 2, 2010, 8:35 AM
The road to a US insolvency crisis
By SCOTT S. POWELL
Last Updated: 8:35 AM, December 2, 2010
Posted: 11:32 PM, December 1, 2010
Today's auction of 10- and 30-year US Treasury notes and bonds won't tell us as much about the US economy as auctions used to -- because the Federal Reserve has started buying up the notes as part of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's "quantitative easing" effort.
Until recently, a plentitude of bidders for long-term US government debt was a sign the US economy was strong. But Bernanke is buying that debt in what he says is an effort to make the economy stronger.
This has a lot of people nervous -- and the news that the Fed may spend up to $800 billion on this, rather than the $600 billion figure initially given, doesn't help.
Even if the purpose is to stimulate the economy, increase stock prices and lower interest rates, the effect of Bernanke's policy may be monetizing the nation's growing debt -- printing new money to finance deficit spending.
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet -- the bonds and other instruments it has bought up -- has already tripled over the last two years, to some $2.25 trillion, yet Bernanke seems unruffled. He also downplays the evidence that the Fed's easy lending in 2003-04 (12 months in which the central bank loaned at just 1 percent to major financial institutions) helped inflate the housing bubble and thus create the 2008 meltdown.
Now, after holding that rate to nearly 0 percent for two years, Bernanke still shows no fear of inflation. Instead, he speaks of the threat of deflation.
Yet commodity and currency prices, reliable indicators of inflation, are signaling trouble ahead.
Oil prices are approaching $90 a barrel, while precious metals keep hitting new highs. A broad basket of commodities that includes copper, rubber, wheat, oats, pork, coffee, sugar and cotton -- all of which are up over 50 percent in the last 12 months -- is also sounding the inflation alarm.
How can it be otherwise? When manufacturers' costs rise (as we're already seeing in a host of indicators), inflation of consumer prices can't be far behind. And how can prices not rise when the US imports more than it exports while Washington pushes the dollar lower against foreign currencies?
Inflation and devaluation must eventually drive interest rates higher -- all bad news for the American consumer. But if Bernanke's policy is widely seen as debt monetization and currency printing, the real danger is a US insolvency crisis that could destroy the dollar and bring global financial chaos.
Here's how it could unfold.
The Treasury now pays a blended cost of about 2.45 percent a year for some $9.14 trillion in publicly held US debt, the lowest rate in more than half a century. But inflation and devaluation will inevitably lead investors to demand a higher return.
The burden is manageable if the rate drifts back up to, say, 5 percent (double the current cost and close to the historic average). But a crisis in confidence would cause an immediate spike up in bond yields and interest rates.
We're edging closer to the two conditions that could precipitate that crisis. One trigger would be the Fed balance sheet having grown too large for orderly liquidation except at fire-sale prices; the other would be disorderly ("failed") US Treasury auctions, wherein bidders step away because they see the risks as outweighing the return.
Such a crisis would mean the cost of servicing federal debt would skyrocket -- triggering a downward-spiraling liquidity crisis ending with the US government unable to finance its obligations.
And while Germany and the European Union were able to rescue Greece and Ireland (so far), there's no one to bail out the United States.
What to do? In January, the new Congress must focus on even more than the tough nut of real deficit, debt and spending reductions. We need more Fed transparency -- such as a public audit of its balance sheet, with stress tests to see the impact of sharply higher interest rates.
The news may be ugly -- but hard facts are what's needed to win public support for the sacrifices necessary to prevent the country from reaching a tipping point where mounting debt triggers an insolvency crisis.
Scott S. Powell, a visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, is a managing partner at RemingtonRand Corp. and Alpha Quest.
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holiday-bonus season is upon us, so anticipate markets heading higher (on low volume)
-NT
When has it not been on low volume? How many POMO's this week?
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December 13, 2010
Wall Street Set For Best Two Years Ever, Thanks To Bailout
Two agonizing years for the U.S. economy have been some of the best years on record for Wall Street.
After first receiving billions in taxpayer aid, and now ultracheap funding from the Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks are on track to wrap up two of their best years ever.
Even if the current quarter only matches the third in revenue, this year will be the second best ever for Wall Street, capping a two-year winning streak fueled by government dollars, Bloomberg reports. With more than $100 billion in their pockets from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which offered them hundreds of billions more, the five biggest investment banks -- Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley -- have seen their revenue this year climb to $93.7 billion.
Revenue on which side of the business? I'm guessing the "investment/trading" side. Nothing better than cashing in on a rigged market.
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Looks to me like 2010 has been a great year for the stock market!
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Looks to me like 2010 has been a great year for the stock market!
You have the Federal Reserve and the banking cartels to thank for that, not market fundamentals or an improving economy. But as Neuro said, you can still make money on the ponzi scheme just don't be left on the boat when it sinks. The banks and the Fed love that play, get all the sheep in through cheap money and propaganda and than when it is swollen with dumb money....they come in and shear it off taking everything and leaving those caught in it with nothing.
I'm sure those that listen to Cramer really thought they were getting a hot stock tip when he fully backed Best Buy the other day.....doh!
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You have the Federal Reserve and the banking cartels to thank for that, not market fundamentals or an improving economy. But as Neuro said, you can still make money on the ponzi scheme just don't be left on the boat when it sinks. The banks and the Fed love that play, get all the sheep in through cheap money and propaganda and than when it is swollen with dumb money....they come in and shear it off taking everything and leaving those caught in it with nothing.
I'm sure those that listen to Cramer really thought they were getting a hot stock tip when he fully backed Best Buy the other day.....doh!
What about those who did not panic and did not touch their stock investments, and some even bought more stocks, between 2007 and now? They saw their investments go way down at first, but in the end it paid off for them. They were not left with nothing when "the boat sunk" in 2007-2008. It seems if you are in it for the long run and not in it for a quick buck, then you'll be okay.
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i disagree. if you invested in Tech stocks (Nasdaq) in 1999 you're still down -50% 12 yrs later. (dollar depreciation excluded)
S&P returns the last 10 yrs are negative -1%. (depreciation excluded)
'buying and holding' is not congruent with building real wealth.
-NT
...unless of course you're doing it with gold & silver imho.
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...unless of course you're doing it with gold & silver imho.
if you're a pirate..
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bump for what bush did to cause the financial collapse ;)
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Bailed Out Banks Teeter Towards Collapse
AP December 27, 2010
Nearly 100 banks previously rescued by the federal government are again poised to fail, despite billions of dollars of support from the American Treasury.
The number of banks on the brink of collapse rose from 86 to 98 during the summer months, according to analysis of federal data from the Wall Street Journal. The banks in question have received $4.2 billion dollars in aid through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
The latest sign of distress in the financial system suggests the bailout may have simply been a stopgap solution for a sector still contending with the aftershocks of the greatest banking crisis in 80 years.
The continued weakness of some banks now threatens to impede a tentative economic recovery, say experts. With many banks still troubled, lending remains tight, depriving businesses of capital to expand and hire. With expansion and hiring rare, the economy remains weak, depriving the banks of healthy customers--in short, a feedback loop of trouble.
The Wall Street Journal defined "troubled banks" as those with less than 6 percent of their primary assets both reliable and liquid.
Like I have said many times - TARP was a mistake in how they did it. Shoveling money with no strings attached and failng to break up these TBTF banks ws a huge mistake.
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Like I have said many times - TARP was a mistake in how they did it. Shoveling money with no strings attached and failng to break up these TBTF banks ws a huge mistake.
I thought you were all for free market, and less gov interference....hhhmmmm maybe my mind is playing tricks on me. ;)
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I thought you were all for free market, and less gov interference....hhhmmmm maybe my mind is playing tricks on me. ;)
I have always said I wanted them to collapse and go bankrupt you dolt. I guess you missed that. And guess who started this whole mess? BJ Clinton.
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bump for what bush did to cause the financial collapse ;)
A recipe for financial disaster: 2002
1) George W Bush turned Government surpluses into record deficits by outspending every President from George Washington to Bill Clinton COMBINED in 8yrs.
2) Devalued US dollar 60% in 8 yrs.
3) Started multiple unfunded Wars.
4) Lowered taxes during Wartime. (first time in history)
5) Increased unfunded entitlement programs. (medicare drug program etc.)
6) Created a Ponzi Scheme/Bubble in Housing Market (Holy Grail) by pushing for increased Minority home ownership with no money down loans, bad credit loans, teaser rates, interest only loans, ARMS etc.
2008 End result: Game over. George Bush's 'house of cards' collapses.
-NT
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Roubini: 'Housing Prices Can Only Move Down'
Published: Tuesday, 28 Dec 2010 | 12:27 PM ET Text Size By: Ash Bennington
NetNet Writer, Special to CNBC.com
According to economist Nouriel Roubini, the housing market is in a double dip.
Photo: Oliver Quillia for CNBC
Nouriel Roubini
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And negative Case-Shiller Home Price numbers out today only confirm that unpleasant truth.
"It's pretty clear the housing market has already double dipped," says Roubini. "And the rate of decline is stronger than in previous months," he said of the new housing data.
Aside from below trend economic growth, there are two factors specific to the housing market that are putting downward pressure on home prices.
The first factor is the expiration of federal home buyer tax credits for first time home buyers.
"If you look at the data, Case Shiller has been falling every month since the tax credit expired in May. Everyone who wanted to buy a home did so by April," Roubini said.
"That tax credit stole demand from the future and its expiration led to another 30% fall in home sales, pushing Case & Shiller lower for the last few months," Roubini wrote in a text message earlier this morning.
The second factor putting downward pressure on home prices is the ongoing chaos with mortgage documentation, and the consequent suspension by banks of mortgage foreclosure proceedings—which has actually worsened the underlying problems in the housing market.
"There has been an effective moratorium on foreclosure," said Roubini.
And the beginning of the end of that moratorium means more housing supply is about to become available on the market.
"The shadow inventory of not-yet-foreclosed homes—due to the moratorium—will surge in the next year," Roubini says.
Both factors, taken in concert, set up a scenario where market fundamentals put downward pressure on prices: "Supply will increase, demand will drop," Roubini said.
The Case Shiller Composite-20 Index, which represents the broadest measure of U.S. home prices in the survey, fell 1 percent on an adjusted basis during the September/October time period, based on data release earlier today.
All 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas included in the survey showed declines—reflecting a broad based, non-regional erosion of prices in the housing sector.
But Roubini isn't yet predicting a double dip recession for the broader economy.
"The rest of the economy is recovering. Most of the numbers are consistent with a growth rate of 2.7 percent," Roubini said.
But that 2.7 percent growth is still below trend. "So unemployment will likely remain above 9 percent," according to Roubini's analysis.
Roubini adds that there are other ominous economic signs on the horizon including: "The eurozone shock, long-term structural deficits, and state and local governments [operating near] bankruptcy."
And, if homeowners begin walking away from their properties en masse, those negative trends might well pick up steam:
"12 million households are already in negative equity and 8 million more have an LTV btw 95 and 100%. Thus even a 5% fall in home price will push an extra 8 million in negative equity with risk of millions walking away from their home—i.e. jingle mail," Roubini wrote me in a text message earlier today.
It's certainly a sobering scenario to contemplate as we head into the New Year.
________________________ ________________________ _____
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LMFAO the only one that has any legitimacy is number 6 and who pushed that nt?
nice try though... ;)
just as I thought the same idiotic talking points that msnbc and the left pushed for years...sad nobody has shown you the errors in your way yet.
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if you're a pirate..
Haven't you heard? ...Gold is not just for pirates anymore. ;)
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A recipe for financial disaster: 2002
1) George W Bush turned Government surpluses into record deficits by outspending every President from George Washington to Bill Clinton COMBINED in 8yrs.
2) Devalued US dollar 60% in 8 yrs.
3) Started multiple unfunded Wars.
4) Lowered taxes during Wartime. (first time in history)
5) Increased unfunded entitlement programs. (medicare drug program etc.)
6) Created a Ponzi Scheme/Bubble in Housing Market (Holy Grail) by pushing for increased Minority home ownership with no money down loans, bad credit loans, teaser rates, interest only loans, ARMS etc.
2008 End result: Game over. George Bush's 'house of cards' collapses.
Financial ownage lesson over. ;)
-NT
QFT!!!
I was going to reply to Tony, ...but I see you've got it more than covered.
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A recipe for financial disaster: 2002
1) George W Bush turned Government surpluses into record deficits by outspending every President from George Washington to Bill Clinton COMBINED in 8yrs.
2) Devalued US dollar 60% in 8 yrs.
3) Started multiple unfunded Wars.
4) Lowered taxes during Wartime. (first time in history)
5) Increased unfunded entitlement programs. (medicare drug program etc.)
6) Created a Ponzi Scheme/Bubble in Housing Market (Holy Grail) by pushing for increased Minority home ownership with no money down loans, bad credit loans, teaser rates, interest only loans, ARMS etc.
2008 End result: Game over. George Bush's 'house of cards' collapses.
Financial ownage lesson over. ;)
-NT
1.) Huge deficits were true but can we stop with the whole "record surplus" meme? We've been through this before, several times, there never was an actual surplus nor was there ever an actual "balanced budget". Only overly rosy projections and borrowing out of the S.S. "trust fund" and counting it as income.
2-5) I pretty much agree with.
6.) Can't be blamed all on Bush. The bubble economy started in the 90's, repeal of what was left of Glass-Steagal was in 99' (Republican Congress/Clinton Admin.) The GSE's had been around for a while before, totally distorted the mortgage market and were a tool of the govt to influence society into housing ownership, that was an actual stated goal of Bill Clinton and of course, everyones favorite, The Community Reinvestment Act. Add lax oversight, The Federal Reserve manipulation of interest rates, cheap money, The Federal Reserves abdication of it's charge of regulating the banks and on and on. We have a bubble economy funded and blown by the Fed, Govt. interference, Central Planning and cheap money. It has to be this way because we have no economic backbone anymore. It was Stock Bubble, Dot.com bubble, Housing Bubble, and now we will have a debt bubble and another stock bubble. And on and on.
I agree with NT more than I disagree most of the time, but you can't place this whole thing on the feet of a single president. That's more than a bit narrow minded and disingenuous
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QFT!!!
I was going to reply to Tony, ...but I see you've got it more than covered.
LMFAO please reply to my reply to him then
the only one that has any legitimacy is number 6 and who pushed that jagson?
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LMFAO please reply to my reply to him then
the only one that has any legitimacy is number 6 and who pushed that jagson?
I found your reply, despite it's brevity, was not even worth the time it took to read.
That would have remained unsaid, ...except, you did ask for my commentary on it.
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I found your reply, despite it's brevity, was not even worth the time it took to read.
That would have remained unsaid, ...except, you did ask for my commentary on it.
sounds about right, i expect the same side step from NT as well ::)
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1.) Huge deficits were true but can we stop with the whole "record surplus" meme? We've been through this before, several times, there never was an actual surplus nor was there ever an actual "balanced budget". Only overly rosy projections and borrowing out of the S.S. "trust fund" and counting it as income.
2-5) I pretty much agree with.
6.) Can't be blamed all on Bush. The bubble economy started in the 90's, repeal of what was left of Glass-Steagal was in 99' (Republican Congress/Clinton Admin.) The GSE's had been around for a while before, totally distorted the mortgage market and were a tool of the govt to influence society into housing ownership, that was an actual stated goal of Bill Clinton and of course, everyones favorite, The Community Reinvestment Act. Add lax oversight, The Federal Reserve manipulation of interest rates, cheap money, The Federal Reserves abdication of it's charge of regulating the banks and on and on. We have a bubble economy funded and blown by the Fed, Govt. interference, Central Planning and cheap money. It has to be this way because we have no economic backbone anymore. It was Stock Bubble, Dot.com bubble, Housing Bubble, and now we will have a debt bubble and another stock bubble. And on and on.
I agree with NT more than I disagree most of the time, but you can't place this whole thing on the feet of a single president. That's more than a bit narrow minded and disingenuous
Gigantor, your points are well taken, however, I cannot help but to break it down to this simple analogy.
The US economy may have chosen to go swimming 5 minutes after eating, ...and as a result, it was quite conceivable she could have developed cramps, and gotten into trouble, ...but, we'll never know because GWB came along and forcibly held her head underwater til she drowned. What's left is a lifeless shell in Walter Reed, ...subject to ObamaCare. The prognosis is not good.
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Gigantor, your points are well taken, however, I cannot help but to break it down to this simple analogy.
The US economy may have chosen to go swimming 5 minutes after eating, ...and as a result, it was quite conceivable she could have developed cramps, and gotten into trouble, ...but, we'll never know because GWB came along and forcibly held her head underwater til she drowned. What's left is a lifeless shell in Walter Reed, ...subject to ObamaCare. The prognosis is not good.
bush spending didnt cause the financial collapse
bush starting wars didnt cause the FINANCIAL COLLAPSE
the housing crisis as correctly stated by gigantor with glass steagal had a hand in the financial collapse, who signed that?
so again what did BUSH do to cause this? specifically?
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Bush can be blamed for letting the bubble grow to obscene levels and not making an issue of it in 2005-2006 when it was obvious to anyone with a clue that housing was getting at dangerous levels.
He did not cause it or put into motion the forces that led to it - but he happily let it grow because the govt was making tns of money off this scheme, and so did the state govts.
I also blame him for a weak dollar policy at the FED and putting the idea of TBTF in place.
I blame him for 8 years of unrestrained illegal immigration as well as buying into a lot of other crap.
I also blame him for not pursuing a far more aggressive domestic drilling policy and not kneecapping the EPA once and for all.
I am not a Bush fan at all. I see him on the TV and want to slap the shit out f him.
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Bush can be blamed for letting the bubble grow to obscene levels and not making an issue of it in 2005-2006 when it was obvious to anyone with a clue that housing was getting at dangerous levels.
He did not cause it or put into motion the forces that led to it - but he happily let it grow because the govt was making tns of money off this scheme, and so did the state govts.
Ill agree with that
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6) Created a Ponzi Scheme/Bubble in Housing Market (Holy Grail) by pushing for increased Minority home ownership with no money down loans, bad credit loans, teaser rates, interest only loans, ARMS etc.
Minority home ownership had almost nothing to do with the housing bubble and certainly was not a catalyst or cause
You can thank Lehman Brothers introduction of Alt-A products and AIG credit default swaps and then in the end there were investment funds who were creating CDO's specifically so that could fail (Magnetar is the prime example but also others)
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Ill agree with that
The local govts loved the housing bubble too. when they kept reassessing homes upwards for taxes purposes they became flush with cash and exanded their payrolls to obscene levels.
Now that the market has crashed and will not recover for decades IMHO, these localities andstates are FUCKED since they refuse to cut spending, and a lot of teir revenue is derived from property taxes.
Problem is that many people are tapped out now ad grieving their taxes and getting certs to where the taxes are lowered. Sure the states drive up the mill rate, but it wont matter because now there are less sales and transactions, so the state wont get the money anyway.
Blowing up a housing bubble on cheap credit was such a reckless thing to do we will not realy be freed from this mess for decades to come. I'm just glad I never bought a house during that perod since I knewit was totally fucked. All my genius friends who were realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers, etc told me I was a fool for not buying a house then, look who is laughing now.
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Minority home ownership had almost nothing to do with the housing bubble and certainly was not a catalyst or cause
You can thank Lehman Brothers introduction of Alt-A products and AIG credit default swaps and then in the end there were investment funds who were creating CDO's specifically so that could fail (Magnetar is the prime example but also others)
Lehman going down really fucked us up in NYC with regard to commercial properties and construction.
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Minority home ownership had almost nothing to do with the housing bubble and certainly was not a catalyst or cause
You can thank Lehman Brothers introduction of Alt-A products and AIG credit default swaps and then in the end there were investment funds who were creating CDO's specifically so that could fail (Magnetar is the prime example but also others)
I wouldnt say it had almost nothing to do with it but I agree the CDO's had a bigger part in it, buddy of mine did his thesis on the financial crisis, CDO's and ratings...the companies would go to the rating company who was giving better ratings on their CDO's who they pay to rate them. The other rating companies lost money and started rating higher so they could increase profit and so on and so forth :-\
to me the whole idea of CDO's is retarded, anybody who thinks that placing a bunch of debt that has risk to the same factors and pretty much says that well they cant all fail is diversifying is a moron.
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The other problem was the securitization and bundling of loans and not forcing those who wrote the loans to sit with them for a period of time. This encouraged rampant fraud and reckless behavior by everyone involved.
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read something about ML a little while back about how they had to create a division within themselves in order to sale their CDO's to themselves b/c nobody else would buy them ::)
the buyers ended up making millions of dollars b/c they were paid to buy the CDO's
really???
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40795080/ns/business/
things that really make you shake your head...
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The other problem was the securitization and bundling of loans and not forcing those who wrote the loans to sit with them for a period of time. This encouraged rampant fraud and reckless behavior by everyone involved.
yup that link i just posted had a quote in it from a ML employee that they said was their motto...
"were not in the holding business, were in the moving business" in regards to the CDO's ::)
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Problem is also that they took a lot of shit loans and put them in with supposed "A" paper loans and misled investors as to what they were getting. And these were sold worldwide.
What was allowed to occur with housing is a national disgrace and not one person has gone to jail.
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Guys, playing the blame game at this point is useless. It's not going to get us out of this mess.
If ya know what's good for you, the name of your game these days will be CYA as in 'Cover Your Ass!'
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Guys, playing the blame game at this point is useless. It's not going to get us out of this mess.
If ya know what's good for you, the name of your game these days will be CYA as in 'Cover Your Ass!'
We are sort of like CSI just examining the corpse at this point. The murder has already taken place.
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Guys, playing the blame game at this point is useless. It's not going to get us out of this mess.
If ya know what's good for you, the name of your game these days will be CYA as in 'Cover Your Ass!'
its called getting the facts
and in your case getting the facts straight
for someone who is peddling financial advice, you should at least be somewhat knowledgable on this ::)
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Problem is also that they took a lot of shit loans and put them in with supposed "A" paper loans and misled investors as to what they were getting. And these were sold worldwide.
What was allowed to occur with housing is a national disgrace and not one person has gone to jail.
I agree like I said they grouped ppl who all had risk to the same scenarios and billed them all together in a CDO as a safe investment ::)
who believes that shit?
LOL whats really funny though is that supposedly the vast majority of promissory notes for those mortgages in the CDO's actually were not transferred to the buyer. This in itself is important b/c supposedly that voids that contract...
also the forclosures that have taken place may have been processed by a company that didnt have the right to do so b/c they technically never had the promissory note to that mortgage.
so some of those forclosures maybe over turned, well what do you do with the ppl who bought the house that was forclosed on?
lol this is a cluster fuck of epic proportions
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By David S. Hilzenrath
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, December 28, 2010; 11:33 PM
More banks failed in the United States this year than in any year since 1992, during the savings-and-loan crisis, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
Amid high unemployment, a struggling economy and a still-devastated real estate market, the nation is closing out the year with 157 bank failures, up from 140 in 2009. As recently as 2006, before the bubble burst, there were none.
Now, there are more on the horizon.
The FDIC's list of "problem" banks - those whose weaknesses "threaten their continued financial viability"- stood at 860 as of Sept. 30, the highest since 1993. Historically, about a fifth of banks on the watch list end up failing.
Bank failures have left the FDIC insurance fund in the red, but the agency predicts that it will have more than enough money to meet the anticipated cost of failures through 2014.
As the financial crisis of recent years recedes, the FDIC has been predicting that 2010 will be the high-water mark for bank implosions.
"Going forward, the FDIC looks to see fewer failures," agency spokesman Greg Hernandez said.
Some industry observers agreed.
"I think we're over the hump of the problem but far from the end," banking consultant Bert Ely said.
Gary B. Townsend, president of Hill-Townsend Capital, said the industry is not just out of the woods, "we are far beyond the woods."
By one measure, the trouble is already abating. On average, the banks that failed this year were much smaller than those that failed last year.
The banks that failed this year had assets totaling $92.1 billion, a decrease of 45.7 percent from the $169.7 billion in assets of the banks that failed in 2009.
"These are very small institutions," Townsend said. "The total assets that they represent is insignificant compared to the financial system as a whole. It's quite manageable."
Ordinarily, failed banks continue to operate virtually seamlessly. Typically, they are taken over by other banks in transactions arranged by regulators. Federal deposit insurance, for which the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was named, protects depositors from losses up to the insurance limits.
Since the closure of IndyMac Bank jolted the system in 2008, even uninsured deposits have been protected in more than 90 percent of failures, Ely said. Although depositors may be unaffected, borrowers can suffer disruptions to their credit lines, he said.
Bank failures are generally lagging indicators of economic trouble. The economy can be on the mend by the time struggling banks succumb.
Some of the nation's largest banks survived as a result of government assistance and are not included in the tally of failures. In 2009, for example, aid went to eight banks, including Countrywide and Bank of America. Their combined assets totaled $1.9 trillion.
The list of failed institutions at the FDIC is filled with community banks that would not be considered "too big to fail."
The loans that brought them down were predominantly commercial loans, Hernandez said, which sets them apart from the banking giants whose problems were rooted in home mortgages.
About half of the the 2010 failures involved banks headquartered in four states: California, Florida, Georgia and Illinois.
The list included four Maryland banks: Bay National Bank and Ideal Federal Savings Bank of Baltimore, K Bank of Randallstown, and Waterfield Bank of Germantown. There was one in Virginia, Imperial Savings and Loan of Martinsville, and none in the District.
As of Sept. 30, the FDIC insurance fund for bank deposits had a balance of negative $8 billion. But that doesn't include reserves such as premiums collected in advance from the banking industry.
Also, as of the third quarter, the agency was predicting that bank failures would cost $52 billion through 2014. The FDIC has the ability to cover that, Hernandez said.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/28/AR2010122803649.html?hpid=topnews
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market is overbought, WS bonus' are secure.
exercise caution.
range 1250-1300
-NT
nothing, no rebuttle of the shredding your statement took?
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Peter Schiff: Here's Why Home Prices Have To Decline At Least 20% And Probably More
Gregory White | Dec. 30, 2010, 12:09 PM | 6,169 | 24
________________________ ________________________ ____________
House prices have to decline at least another 20.3% to come back to the historical trend and may have much further to fall, according to Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Schiff breaks down the horrible state of the U.S. residential real estate market just days after a negative Case-Shiller number pretty much confirmed we're in a housing double-dip.
Schiff explains that, if we all believe that we were in a housing bubble, then house prices need to come back to the historical trend line before we're actually through this.
But that 20.3% is only the beginning of the break.
From Peter Schiff (in the WSJ, emphasis ours):
With a bleak economic prospect stretching far out into the future, I feel that a 10% dip below the 100-year trend line is a reasonable expectation within the next five years, particularly if mortgage rates rise to more typical levels of 6%. That would put the index at 114.02, or prices 28.3% below where we are now. Even a 5% dip would put us at 120.36, or 24.32% below current prices. If rates stay low, price dips may be less severe, but inflation will be higher.
Because of high unemployment, and little short-term hope for a jobs recovery, this darker vision makes a lot more sense, according to Schiff. He also blames the poor outlook on high levels of private and public debt and feels Fed activity to prop up the market is only delaying a real recovery.
Read the full piece at WSJ.com >
Don't believe the negativity? Here's why Bill Ackman thinks now is the time to buy a house >
Tags: Peter Schiff, U.S. economy, Real Estate, Housing | Get Alerts for these topics »
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-schiff-home-prices-2010-12#ixzz19d0IdBdD
________________________ ________________________ ____
Schiff is 100000000% correct and I have been saying this since at least 2004.
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HOUSE OF THE DAY: Hank Paulson Loses $1 Million On His D.C. Home
Leah Goldman | Dec. 30, 2010, 4:37 PM | 3,102 | 6
________________________ ________________________ _______________--
Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson put his Washington, D.C. home on the market in April for $4.6 million, lowered it to $4.15, and finally sold it for $3.25 million (via @alea_).
Paulson certainly played a role in the U.S. housing downfall as George W. Bush's top economic advisor and now, it's even affecting him.
Paulson bought the house for $4.3 million back in August of 2006 making that over a $1 million loss.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-of-hank-paulson-dc-home-2010-12##ixzz19dVizK2N
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U.S. Consumer Bankruptcies Hit 5 - Year High In 2010
NY Times ^ | January 3, 2011
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of U.S. consumers who filed for bankruptcy protection in 2010 was the highest in five years, and the figure could rise as Americans struggle with excess debt in an uncertain economy, a report issued Monday said.
Roughly 1.53 million consumer bankruptcy petitions were filed in 2010, up 9 percent from 1.41 million in 2009, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute, citing data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center.
Filings in December totaled 118,146, up 4 percent from a year earlier and 3 percent from November's total.
The full-year total is the highest since the 2.04 million recorded in 2005, when there was a rush to seek bankruptcy protection ahead of a stricter federal law taking effect in October of that year.
According to the Federal Reserve, U.S. consumer credit outstanding has fallen in 19 of the last 21 months for which data are available, declining to $2.41 trillion in October 2010 from $2.57 trillion in January 2009.
Robert Lawless, a bankruptcy professor at the University of Illinois College of Law in Champaign, said the pace of filings may peak in early 2011 but that full-year filings could drop by a single-digit percentage.
There were 2.94 million U.S. consumer bankruptcy filings in 2009 and 2010, the most over a two calendar year period since the 3.6 million recorded in 2004 and 2005.
"The (2005) law was supposed to reduce filings, but we are very close to levels we were at then," Gerdano said. "The laws of economic gravity are more powerful than the laws passed by Congress."
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
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Unemployment rises in two-thirds of metro areas
AP via Yahoo Finance ^ | 1/4/2011 | AP
________________________ ________________________ ___
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Unemployment rates rose in more than two-thirds of the nation's largest metro areas in November, a sharp reversal from the previous month and the most since June.
The Labor Department says unemployment rates rose in 258 of the 372 largest cities, fell in 88 and remained the same in 26. That's worse than the previous month, when the rate fell in 200 areas and rose in 108.
[Snip]
Many laid-off workers are giving up. In states such as Michigan, unemployment rates are falling because more people have stopped looking for work. Once they do, the government no longer counts them as unemployed.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
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The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words![1]
Sources and References:
1. loco
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guys, as you may already know the Fed plans to purchase $600 billion in bonds through the end of June, a pace of roughly $75 billion per month. its plan is an attempt to lower interest rates, spur spending and lift/prop stock market prices.
in time this will create another unsustainable market bubble w/ hyperinflation.
-NT
Neuro, in your opinion, how can an individual protect themselves again imminent hyperinflation, and still maintain the purchase power of his/her wealth? Is there a specific asset or asset class you'd recommend?
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precious metals
-NT
I'm sorry Neuro, I didn't quite understand that response. Do you mean precious metals as in...
GOLD & SILVER? ;)
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;)
Of the various mechanisms in place for the acquisition of GOLD & SILVER, which would you consider the best?
A) ETF's (paper gold & silver) under the stewardship of such firms like JP Morgan (with massive short positions)
B) gold or silver jewelry
C) numismatic coins
D) physical gold & silver, as in 999.9% pure 24kt gold bullion, and 999.9 % fine silver bullion
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Option-D
-NT
Option-D? :o I'm not Billy, ...and I don't wanna fight. :D
Of the various grades & certifications of gold in the world market, ...especially in the wake of gold plated tungsten, and other alloys, would you say the kinebar grade bullion offers the consumer the most security in knowing that the gold he has purchased is actually gold, and will retain it's highest value once removed from the vault?
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I'm sorry Neuro, I didn't quite understand that response. Do you mean precious metals as in...
GOLD & SILVER? ;)
WARNING: DO NOT buy gold or silver from 24KT/JaguarScams or from any company that she promotes.
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Option-D? :o I'm not Billy, ...and I don't wanna fight. :D
Of the various grades & certifications of gold in the world market, ...especially in the wake of gold plated tungsten, and other alloys, would you say the kinebar grade bullion offers the consumer the most security in knowing that the gold he has purchased is actually gold, and will retain it's highest value once removed from the vault?
kinebar gold is crap
WARNING: DO NOT buy gold or silver from 24KT/JaguarScams or from any company that she promotes.
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kinebar gold is crap
How so? Why is it crap?
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Neuro, do you have any experience with PPP financing?
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How so? Why is it crap?
you sell it for starters.
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you sell it for starters.
I don't sell kinebar grade gold.
Furthermore, if you have no valid reason to disparage something you know nothing about, you really should keep your mouth shut. You need to back it up, or STFU!
Please and Thank You
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WARNING: DO NOT buy gold or silver from 24KT/JaguarScams or from any company that she promotes.
Fact unchanged.
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Fact unchanged.
I second that.. ;D
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I don't sell kinebar grade gold.
Furthermore, if you have no valid reason to disparage something you know nothing about, you really should keep your mouth shut. You need to back it up, or STFU!
Please and Thank You
how about any of the posts in the thread on the industry board?
LMAO here you go guys
look at her responses to the posts showing this scam for what it is...
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=349004.50#lastPost
jason do you feel somewhat responsible for the shooter in AZ with all your fear mongering and buy gold/silver the USD isnt backed by anything rhetoric that he cites on his youtube page?
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how about any of the posts in the thread on the industry board?
LMAO here you go guys
look at her responses to the posts showing this scam for what it is...
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=349004.50#lastPost
jason do you feel somewhat responsible for the shooter in AZ with all your fear mongering and buy gold/silver the USD isnt backed by anything rhetoric that he cites on his youtube page?
Tony, you should really learn how to discern fact from fiction. Unfortunately, you are not the only one.
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Tony, you should really learn how to discern fact from fiction. Unfortunately, you are not the only one.
HAHHAHAHAH
this coming from someone who blames bush for the financial collapse...
only on getbig baby...
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The Fed’s QE2 Traders, Buying Bonds by the Billions
By GRAHAM BOWLEY
Published: January 10, 2011
Deep inside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the $600 billion man is fast at work.
In a spare, government-issue office in Lower Manhattan, behind a bank of cubicles and a scruffy copy machine, Josh Frost and a band of market specialists are making the Fed’s ultimate Wall Street trade. They are buying hundreds of billions of dollars of United States Treasury securities on the open market in a controversial attempt to keep interest rates low and, in the process, revive the economy.
To critics, it is a Hail Mary play — an admission that the economy’s persistent weakness has all but exhausted the central bank’s powers and tested the limits of its policy making. Around the world, some warn the unusual strategy will weaken the dollar and lead to crippling inflation.
But inside the Operations Room, on the ninth floor of the New York Fed’s fortresslike headquarters, there is no time for second-guessing. Here the second round of what is known as quantitative easing — QE2, as it is called on Wall Street — is being put into practice almost daily by the central bank’s powerful New York arm.
Each morning Mr. Frost and his team face a formidable task: they must try to buy Treasuries at the best possible price from the savviest bond traders in the business.
The smallest miscalculation, a few one-hundredths of a percentage point here or there, could unsettle the markets and cost taxpayers dearly. It could also embolden critics at home and abroad who say QE2 represents a dangerous expansion of the Fed’s role in the markets.
It gets even worse... Japan just announced they will be buying up HUGE quantities of bonds... in Euro! :o
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Housing Market Slips Into Depression Territory
Published: Tuesday, 11 Jan 2011 | 10:52 AM ET Text Size By: Cindy Perman
CNBC.com Staff Writer
AP
Macaulay Culkin
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In the past few years, we’ve all been careful to choose our words carefully, not calling it a recession until it fit the technical definition and avoiding any inappropriate use of the “D” word — Depression.
Things were bad but the broader economy never reached Depression territory. The housing market, on the other hand, just crossed that threshold.
Home values have fallen 26 percent since their peak in June 2006, worse than the 25.9-percent decline seen during the Depression years between 1928 and 1933, Zillow reported.
November marked the 53rd consecutive month (4 ½ years) that home values have fallen.
What’s worse, it’s not over yet: Home values are expected to continue to slide as inventories pile up, and likely won't recover until the job market improves.
And while the president is physically protected in an emergency, whisked to a bunker at an undisclosed location, the actual White House is not: The value of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue has dropped by $80 million, or nearly 25 percent since the peak of the housing boom. It’s current value is $251.6 million, according to Zillow, down from $331.5 million.
Oh-h say can you see … by the dawn’s ear-ly light …
[GE 18.59 -0.04 (-0.21%) ]
More on the Economy:
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youre sig should say registered idiot...
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move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
congrats to those who didn't
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youre sig should say registered idiot...
Neurotoxin,
What happened to all of your posts below tonymctones' post above? Did you delete them all?
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Neurotoxin,
What happened to all the your posts below tonymctones' post above? Did you delete them all?
Loco,
Neurotoxin doesn't have the ability to delete posts from this thread. Only Ron & the board mods do.
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Loco,
Neurotoxin doesn't have the ability to delete posts from this thread. Only Ron & the board mods do.
::)
Neurotoxin,
What happened to all of your posts below tonymctones' post above? Did you have Ron & the board mods delete them all?
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Where did Neurotoxin go?
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The Eight States Running Out of Homebuyers
by Douglas A. McIntyre, Michael B. Sauter and Charles B. Stockdale
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
The single biggest problem in the U.S. real estate market is simple: There are very few homebuyers.
That seems obvious, but the "buyers' strike" has caused house prices to drop, along with an epidemic of foreclosures. What's worse, the long depression in real estate is probably not over. S&P has forecast that home prices will drop by 7% to 10% this year. The S&P Case-Shiller Index has dropped for most of the 20 largest real estate markets over the last several months. RealtyTrac recently reported that more than 1 million homes were foreclosed upon in 2010.
Many economists argue that the housing market may take four or five years to recover. Even if that's proven to be true, the all-time highs of 2006 may never be reached again.
More from 24/7 Wall St.:
• Companies That Rely on Aging Products
• OPEC's Funny Math for Oil Demand
• Americans Expect Home Prices to Fall
The devastation in some regions will never be repaired. Parts of Oregon, Georgia and Arizona have become progressively more deserted. Since jobless rates may never recover, there is little reason to hope that the populations in these areas will ever rebound. Some homes will be torn down in these pockets of high foreclosures in the hopes that reducing supplies will boost prices. Whether that idea will work in hard-hit areas such as Flint, Mich., and Yuma, Ariz., remains to be seen.
24/7 Wall St. looked at a number of the standard measures to find the housing markets facing the biggest problems attracting buyers. After a detailed examination, six metrics were chosen: (1) vacancy rates for 2010; (2) foreclosure rates for 2010; (3) November 2010 unemployment rates; (4) change in building permits from 2006 to 2010; (5) change in population from 2005 to 2010; and (6) price reduction by major cities for 2010. Taken together, they create a strong statistical base to describe markets which buyers have largely abandoned.
Several states nearly made it onto the list, such as Colorado and South Carolina, but did not get poor enough marks across all of our measurements. Each was among the 10 worst for declines in building permits. Colorado had one of the worst foreclosure rates, and South Carolina one of the worst vacancy rates. However, the populations in both states have rebounded enough to make a strong case that their housing markets may recover moderately over time.
The review of the data raises several public policy issues. The most important of these is whether the federal focus on reviving the housing market should be concentrated in the hardest hit regions. The counter to that point of view is that some cities, such as Flint, or states like Nevada are in such bad shape that they are beyond assistance. Unemployment rates are too high in these areas, and perhaps the number of homes on the market is too large.
One thing is certain. The housing recovery will be wildly uneven. A city like New York, which has a dense population and large numbers of middle class and upper class buyers who will wait until they believe prices hit bottom, will have a rapid recovery soon. Building permits granted in New York City over the last four years have been very low. The supply of apartments is also low. Those forces taken together with an even modest economic recovery will help push real estate prices higher in New York and regions with similar characteristics.
The real estate crisis has gone on for four years. In the states 24/7 Wall St. has chosen here, the crisis will go on much longer.
1. Michigan
Vacancy Rate: 15.98% (9th Worst)
Unemployment: 12.4% (Tied for 2nd Worst)
Population Change 2005-2010: -2.05% (Worst)
Michigan is one of only two states whose population has decreased in the last five years. The state has lost more than 2% of its population since 2005. Most of this population loss was undoubtedly due to the depression in the car industry that led to the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler. Flint, once one of the largest car manufacturing cities in America, has lost more than 10% of its population in the past 10 years. The state has the second-worst unemployment rate in the country at 12.4%. Michigan has a home vacancy rate of 15.98%, the ninth-worst in the U.S. There are large neighborhoods in Detroit that are vacant.
2. Nevada
2010 Foreclosures: 9.42% (Worst)
Unemployment: 14.3% (Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -84.39% (Worst)
In 2010, an incredible 9.42% of all housing units in Nevada were foreclosed upon. This is by far the highest foreclosure rate in the U.S., and is nearly twice that of the next-worst state. Nevada also has the highest unemployment rate in the United States, at 14.3%.The recession undermined profits in the gaming industry. Between 2006 and 2010, the state had an 84.3% decrease in building permit requests, the largest drop in the country. This has resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of construction jobs.
3. Arizona
Vacancy Rate: 17.3% (5th Worst)
2010 Foreclosures: 5.73% (2nd Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -81.36% (4th Worst)
Arizona is among a handful of states most deeply wounded by the real estate collapse. Some 5.73% of properties in the state have been foreclosed upon, the second highest rate in the country, and 17.3% of homes are vacant, the fifth greatest rate in the country. Also, Mesa, Phoenix and Tucson, the state's three largest cities, are all among the top five American cities with the greatest percentage of price reductions for homes in 2010, along with Minneapolis and Baltimore. As of December 2010, these cities had 43%, 42% and 38% of their listings with price reductions, respectively.
4. California
2010 Foreclosures: 4.08% (4th Worst)
Unemployment: 12.4% (Tied for 2nd Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -74.7% (6th Worst)
California's impact on the housing market is huge. The state is the largest among the 50 in total GDP and housing units. California's unemployment rate of 12.4% is now tied for second place with Michigan, once the jobless capital of the nation. In 2010, the state had one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country, at just over 4%. New construction has dropped off dramatically as well, with a 74 % decrease in new building permits between 2006 and 2010.
5. Illinois
2010 Foreclosures: 2.87% (9th Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -81.32% (5th Worst)
Population Change 2005-2010: 1.23% (8th Worst)
Although Illinois has a relatively low residential vacancy rate, finding people to buy homes can be difficult. The state's population only grew 1.23% between 2005 and 2010. This is the eighth worst growth rate in the country. Furthermore, the number of building permits issued since 2006 decreased 81.32%, the fifth greatest drop in the nation. The collapse of the state's industrial base has been so great that its economy will not recover anytime soon.
6. Georgia
2010 Foreclosures: 3.25% (6th Worst)
Unemployment: 10% (9th Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -82.29% (2nd Worst)
The number of building permits issued in 2006 in Georgia was 92,541. In 2010 that number dropped to 16,391. This is the second greatest decrease in the nation during that time. The state's unemployment rate, at 10%, is above the national average of 9.4%. Also in 2010, there were 130,966 foreclosures in Georgia, 3.25% of the state's properties. This is an increase of 53.62% since 2008.
7. Oregon
Unemployment: 10.6% (Tied for 5th Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -74.08% (7th Worst)
Number of Listings With Price Reductions (Portland): 35% (Tied for 8th Worst Among 50 Largest U.S. Cities)
Oregon's real estate market has suffered the double blow of a sharp drop in both building permits and price reductions on existing homes. Unemployment is 10.6%, the fifth worst rate in the country. The number of new building permits decreased by 74% from 2006 to 2010. In December 2010, 35% of listings in Portland, the state's largest city, had price reductions.
8. Florida
Vacancy Rate: 21.03% (2nd Worst)
2010 Foreclosures: 5.51% (3rd Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -81.37% (3rd Worst)
Unemployment in Florida is 12%, the fourth worst in the country. Approximately 1.1 million residents are out of work. Statistics show that 21.03% of the state's housing units are vacant. Furthermore, 5.51% of homes have been foreclosed upon. Florida was among five states that had the largest real estate booms from 2000 to 2006. Residential prices in some waterfront areas like Miami and Palm Beach rose by much more than double during that period. New home and condominium construction soared. Many of those residences have never been occupied and are still part of the inventory of homes for sale.
Sources:
1) Vacancy rates for 2010 -- American Community Survey (Census Bureau)
2) Foreclosure rates for 2010 -- RealtyTrac
3) November 2010 unemployment rates -- Bureau of Labor Statistics
4) Change in building permits from 2006 to 2010 -- Census Bureau
5) Change in population from 2005 to 2010 -- Census Bureau
6) Price reduction by cities for 2010 -- Trulia
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January 24, 2011
Mortgage Giants Leave Legal Bills to the Taxpayers
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Since the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, taxpayers have spent more than $160 million defending the mortgage finance companies and their former top executives in civil lawsuits accusing them of fraud. The cost was a closely guarded secret until last week, when the companies and their regulator produced an accounting at the request of Congress.
The bulk of those expenditures — $132 million — went to defend Fannie Mae and its officials in various securities suits and government investigations into accounting irregularities that occurred years before the subprime lending crisis erupted. The legal payments show no sign of abating.
Documents reviewed by The New York Times indicate that taxpayers have paid $24.2 million to law firms defending three of Fannie’s former top executives: Franklin D. Raines, its former chief executive; Timothy Howard, its former chief financial officer; and Leanne Spencer, the former controller.
Late last year, Randy Neugebauer, Republican of Texas and now chairman of the oversight subcommittee of the House Financial Services Committee, requested the figures from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. It is the regulator charged with overseeing the mortgage finance companies and acts as their conservator, trying to preserve the company’s assets on behalf of taxpayers.
“One of the things I feel very strongly about is we need to be doing everything we can to minimize any further exposure to the taxpayers associated with these companies,” Mr. Neugebauer said in an interview last week.
It is typical for corporations to cover such fees unless an executive is found to be at fault. In this case, if the former executives are found liable, the government can try to recoup the costs, but that could prove challenging.
Since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the government in September 2008, their losses stemming from bad loans have mounted, totaling about $150 billion in a recent reckoning. Because the financial regulatory overhaul passed last summer did not address how to resolve Fannie and Freddie, Congress is expected to take up that complex matter this year.
In the coming weeks, the Treasury Department is expected to publish a report outlining the administration’s recommendations regarding the future of the companies.
Well before the credit crisis compelled the government to rescue Fannie and Freddie, accounting irregularities had engulfed both companies. Shareholders of Fannie and Freddie sued to recover stock losses incurred after the improprieties came to light.
Freddie’s problems arose in 2003 when it disclosed that it had understated its income from 2000 to 2002; the company revised its results by an additional $5 billion. In 2004, Fannie was found to have overstated its results for the preceding six years; conceding that its accounting was improper, it reduced its past earnings by $6.3 billion.
Mr. Raines retired in December 2004 and Mr. Howard resigned at the same time. Ms. Spencer left her position as controller in early 2005. The following year, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, then the company’s regulator, published an in-depth report on the company’s accounting practices, accusing Fannie’s top executives of taking actions to manipulate profits and generate $115 million in improper bonuses.
The office sued Mr. Raines, Mr. Howard and Ms. Spencer in 2006, seeking $100 million in fines and $115 million in restitution. In 2008, the three former executives settled with the regulator, returning $31.4 million in compensation. Without admitting or denying the regulator’s allegations, Mr. Raines paid $24.7 million and Mr. Howard paid $6.4 million; Ms. Spencer returned $275,000.
Fannie Mae also settled a fraud suit brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission without admitting or denying the allegations; the company paid $400 million in penalties.
Lawyers for the three former Fannie executives did not respond to requests for comment. A company spokeswoman did not return a phone call or e-mail seeking comment.
In addition to the $160 million in taxpayer money, Fannie and Freddie themselves spent millions of dollars to defend former executives and directors before the government takeover. Freddie Mac had spent a total of $27.8 million. The expenses are significantly larger at Fannie Mae.
Legal costs incurred by Mr. Raines, Mr. Howard and Ms. Spencer in the roughly four and a half years prior to the government takeover totaled almost $63 million. The total incurred before the bailout by other high-level executives and board members was around $12 million, while an additional $18 million covered fees for lawyers for Fannie Mae officials below the level of executive vice president. Many of these individuals are provided lawyers because they are witnesses in the matters.
Employment contracts and company by-laws usually protect, or indemnify, executives and directors against liabilities, including legal fees associated with defending against such suits.
After the government moved to back Fannie and Freddie, the Federal Housing Finance Agency agreed to continue paying to defend the executives, with the taxpayers covering the costs.
But indemnification does not apply across the board. As is the case with many companies, Fannie Mae’s by-laws detail actions that bar indemnification for officers and directors. They include a person’s breach of the duty of loyalty to the company or its stockholders, actions taken that are not in good faith or intentional misconduct.
Richard S. Carnell, an associate professor at Fordham University Law School who was an assistant secretary of the Treasury for financial institutions during the 1990s, questions why Mr. Raines, Mr. Howard and others, given their conduct detailed in the Housing Enterprise Oversight report, are being held harmless by the government and receiving payment of legal bills as a result.
“Their duty of loyalty required them to put shareholders’ interests ahead of their own personal interests,” Mr. Carnell said. “Had they cared about the shareholders, they would not have staked Fannie’s reputation on dubious accounting. They defied their duty of loyalty and served themselves. At a moral level, they don’t deserve indemnification, much less payment of such princely sums.”
Asked why it has not cut off funding for these mounting legal bills, Edward J. DeMarco, the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said: “I understand the frustration regarding the advancement of certain legal fees associated with ongoing litigation involving Fannie Mae and certain former employees. It is my responsibility to follow applicable federal and state law. Consequently, on the advice of counsel, I have concluded that the advancement of such fees is in the best interest of the conservatorship.”
If the former executives are found liable, they would be obligated to repay the government. But lawyers familiar with such disputes said it would be difficult to get individuals to repay sums as large as these. Lawyers for Mr. Raines, for example, have received almost $38 million so far, while Ms. Spencer’s bills exceed $31 million.
These individuals could bring further litigation to avoid repaying this money, legal specialists said.
Although the figures are not broken down by case, the largest costs are being generated by a lawsuit centering on accounting improprieties that erupted at Fannie Mae in 2004. This suit, a shareholder class action brought by the Ohio Public Employees Retirement System and the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio, is being heard in federal court in Washington. Although it has been going on for six years, the judge has not yet set a trial date. Depositions are still being taken in the case, suggesting that it has much further to go with many more fees to be paid.
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks started February with a bang Tuesday, as the three major indexes rose more than 1% and the Dow topped 12,000 for the fourth time in a week.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/01/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
congrats to those who didn't
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GetBig had its chance and blew it.
-NT
Actually, anyone who followed this advice blew it.
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
Congrats to those who didn't!
-
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Well that sells it. ::)
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Decline in real estate sales greater than stated? (Yes, by some 7 million units)
Inman News ^ | 2/15/2011 | Matt Carter
Statistics published by the National Association of Realtors appear to overstate sales of existing homes by 15 to 20 percent, mortgage and property data aggregator CoreLogic says in a new report that concludes home sales fell more sharply last year than previously thought.
A NAR spokesman said the CoreLogic claim "is premature at best," and NAR will be making some benchmark revisions to its historic sales data later this year.
NAR's figures -- based on data collected from multiple listing services and large brokerages -- show sales of existing homes fell 5 percent in 2010, to 4.9 million. But CoreLogic, which collects public sales records from county recorders and courts, estimates that home sales actually fell 12 percent, to 3.6 million.
(Excerpt) Read more at inman.com ...
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks hover near 2-year highs
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/17/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
congrats to those who didn't
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I thought mons said he voted fro reagan, bush, dole, jr bush and Obama was hs first dem vote?
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks hover near 2-year highs
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/17/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
congrats to those who didn't
But he pays more in taxes than everyone on Getbig combined!
I thought mons said he voted fro reagan, bush, dole, jr bush and Obama was hs first dem vote?
BlackenMonsAnusToxinWhor kSnapple25 has never told the truth about anything.
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george w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
People to Blame for the Financial Crisis
Bill Clinton
(http://img.timeinc.net/time/photoessays/2009/blame_25/blame_25_clinton.jpg)
"Among his biggest strokes of free-wheeling capitalism was the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, a cornerstone of Depression-era regulation. He also signed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which exempted credit-default swaps from regulation. In 1995 Clinton loosened housing rules by rewriting the Community Reinvestment Act, which put added pressure on banks to lend in low-income neighborhoods."
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877322,00.html
Bill Clinton: I should have better regulated derivatives
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-02-16/politics/bill.clinton.qanda_1_hillary-clinton-investment-banks-gramm-leach-bliley-act?_s=PM:POLITICS
"As the world financial system implodes, Democrats have blamed the Bush administration's lack of regulation for creating the conditions for collapse. But a top Clinton regulator acknowledges that he and his colleagues a decade ago "beat back" regulatory efforts that could have prevented credit markets from becoming so precariously balanced they were “milliseconds” from disaster."
http://www.propublica.org/article/former-clinton-official-says-democrats-obama-advisers-share-blame-for-marke
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said President Bill Clinton’s administration “ought to have done more” in regulating the derivatives market “to protect the American public.”
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-01/clinton-team-should-have-done-more-on-derivatives-gensler-says.html
"In the late 1990s, Phil Gramm and Jim Leach were chairmen of the Senate and House Banking Committees. They wanted to deregulate--and they had the votes to deregulate unless Clinton wanted to make it into an all-out war and assemble a coalition to back a veto, which he did not."
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/05/more-on-clinton-era-regulation-of-derivatives.html
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Did you say Mons Venus 333386? ;)
Please ignore my grand piano. :-*
What? So just because you allegedly own a grand piano and take pictures hugging muscular men, we are all supposed to follow your ill financial advice and agree with your opinions without question?
Why the urge to prove yourself here anyway?
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You do realize anybody can have their picture taken standing next to any of these people, don't you?
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks hover near 2-year highs
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/17/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
congrats to those who didn't
I think if you were invested in the S&P 500 and sold out in 2007, and invested the money in treasuries you would be way ahead of people who held on for life.,,
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I think if you were invested in the S&P 500 and sold out in 2007, and invested the money in treasuries you would be way ahead of people who held on for life.,,
What about if you sold out in 2007 and invested in "cd's, cash, money markets"?
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We know, we know. You're a mult-millionaire, fought in 3 wars, served in the special forces, flew a litany of different fighter planes and so on and so on. No one gives a fuck about your fairy tales, gimmick.
haha - Owned.
What? So just because you allegedly own a grand piano and take pictures hugging muscular men, we are all supposed to follow your ill financial advice and agree with your opinions without question?
Why the urge to prove yourself here anyway?
When you truly are a nobody, you'll do anything to get a pic with a somebody. And you'll probably desperately seek attention with 20 or so gimmicks on an internet board.
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Skip the investment guru (who missed his chance) stock picks of the day:
I'm gonna recommend some buys on Pfizer, Dell, and Ford. If you see a wedge formation in your chart - sell. Go low on the Forex, but high on the S & P.
Opinion - changed.
-S8
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Fact: Liberal Democrat NT pays more in taxes than ALL GetBig POSTERS yearly income COMBINED.
Losers & Little people sicken me!
-NT
Still talking about how great you are Mons Venus? Calling people on the board "nobodies"? Sounds very familiar to this PM you sent me:
2nd most FAMOUS thread is trolling? ;) hahahaa
I fucking OWN you and GB. Your threads/topics SUCK......and you suck! Scumbag teabagger. Fuckin Island guy. :-*
I'm in a different league than U and U know it! hahaaaha U can not stop THE MAN.
BTW guy......Go kill yourself!!! :-*
Oh yeah......One more thing.....YOURE A FUCKIN C UNT !!!! :-* :-* :-*
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You do realize anybody can have their picture taken standing next to any of these people, don't you?
That's really funny. Why did he delete them?
I look forward to the more educated opinions from you and Skip on the stock market. You "nobodies" know your stuff. :D
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Fact: Liberal Democrat NT pays more in taxes than ALL GetBig POSTERS yearly income COMBINED.
-NT
Fact: Liberal Democrats don't pay taxes, then blame TurboTax when they get caught.
Fact: Statistically, Republicans have more money than Democrats.
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That's really funny. Why did he delete them?
I look forward to the more educated opinions from you and Skip on the stock market. You "nobodies" know your stuff. :D
I'll be darn! That's right! He posted a bunch of pictures of himself hugging muscular men and a picture of his alleged grand piano, supposedly to prove that he is somebody and we are nobodies, then he deletes them all? What the heck? This Neurotoxin/Mons Venus character is either just playing around or he really lost his marbles.
Beach Bum, the only educated opinion I have about the stock market is to seek advice from a professional, reputable, experienced financial adviser and not from this site, least of all from Mons Venus.
FINRA BrokerCheck®
Check the Background of Your Investment Professional
http://www.finra.org/Investors/ToolsCalculators/BrokerCheck/
ProtectYourself
http://www.finra.org/Investors/ProtectYourself/
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I'll be darn! That's right! He posted a bunch of pictures of himself hugging muscular men and a picture of his alleged grand piano, supposedly to prove that he is somebody and we are nobodies, then he deletes them all? What the heck? This Neurotoxin/Mons Venus character is either just playing around or he really lost his marbles.
Beach Bum, the only educated opinion I have about the stock market is to seek advice from a professional, reputable, experienced financial adviser and not from this site, least of all from Mons Venus.
FINRA BrokerCheck®
Check the Background of Your Investment Professional
http://www.finra.org/Investors/ToolsCalculators/BrokerCheck/
ProtectYourself
http://www.finra.org/Investors/ProtectYourself/
Yeah. I was kidding. :)
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You guys actually PM each other insults?
What's the point of that?
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You guys actually PM each other insults?
What's the point of that?
You should see some of the insulting crap sent to me via pm from the haters.
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You should see some of the insulting crap sent to me via pm from the haters.
Scary.
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You guys actually PM each other insults?
What's the point of that?
Nope. Was not an exchange. Just a steady stream from him. Another proud member of the Beach Bum Fan Club. :)
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Fact: Liberal Democrat NT pays more in taxes than ALL GetBig POSTERS yearly income COMBINED.
Losers & Little people sicken me!
-NT
Wait. You said you are a lifelong Republican.
as a lifelong republican, i'm throughly enjoying the Karl Rove NeoCon brand self combust. pure fvcking evil deserves nothing less.
karma's a bitch. ;D
NT
scary thought, even for a republican like myself.
WTF ! :o
NT
as a lifelong Republican i couldn't agree more.
NT
Bush = Worse than Saddam. (yes, that's coming from a conservative republican)
NT
i was simply pointing out the GOP's hypocrisy. (btw i'm a republican)
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Wait. You said you are a lifelong Republican.
You went through an entire thread to find posts where he called himself a republican?
Damn... Way too much time on your hands.
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You went through an entire thread to find posts where he called himself a republican?
Damn... Way too much time on your hands.
Yes, I did. :) And in that entire several minutes, what it showed me is Mons Venus has a problem telling the truth.
And yes, I have some time on my hands today, and tomorrow, and Sunday, and Monday. :)
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You went through an entire thread to find posts where he called himself a republican?
Damn... Way too much time on your hands.
lol,
Im pretty disappointed at Neuro's reaction to the remarks. Why have a temper tantrum when an intelligent debate is way more productive. I also think the gloating attacks are a bit over the top. Bernanke is goosing the market, the long term effects arent going to be good, how long can the markets tolerate obvious currency debasement?
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You went through an entire thread to find posts where he called himself a republican?
Damn... Way too much time on your hands.
tu_holmes, are you kidding? Have you never used the Search on this boards? Just do a search for Neurotoxin Republican and see what happens. Way too much time, like 2 seconds.
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tu_holmes, are you kidding? Have you never used the Search on this boards? Just do a search for Neurotoxin Republican and see what happens. Way too much time, like 2 seconds.
I'm not going to remember any person saying that they are this or that and then searching to "catch them in a lie".
Just sounds childish.
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Scary.
Ive gotten one or two from mons and maybe blacken i cant remember though...never responded LOL
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tu_holmes, are you kidding? Have you never used the Search on this boards? Just do a search for Neurotoxin Republican and see what happens. Way too much time, like 2 seconds.
Yeah. Too easy.
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Ive gotten one or two from mons and maybe blacken i cant remember though...never responded LOL
Is that all? I have more than one stalker. :D
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Is that all? I have more than one stalker. :D
LOL well ive had more but they have all been mons hahahah got some from chomsky whatever and the other gimmick of his that claimed to be some financial guru who did coke(cant remember his name) but yea they have all been the same guy...maybe I should step up my game :)
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Nothing to see here. Just another "Filthy Rich Liberal" who hates "Little People".......as usual...
-
george w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
-
Skip the investment guru (who missed his chance) advice of the day:
I'm seeing major market corrections at 290 over 5 and a pigtail suggesting a 5:1 buy on NASDEQ. You've got to think heavy metals guys (that's an inside tip just for you all).
Opinion - getting giddy.
-S8
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AP source: Feds drop criminal probe against Mozilo
AP/YahooNews ^ | 2/18/11 | ANDREW DALTON
Federal prosecutors have ended a criminal investigation of Countrywide Financial Corp. co-founder Angelo Mozilo, a person close to the investigation said Friday.
The federal official told The Associated Press that the probe launched in 2008 into the actions of the former chief executive of the housing giant during the mortgage meltdown has been closed with no indictments. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation was never publicly announced, and the Department of Justice as a policy does not announce the closing of investigations.
In October, Mozilo agreed to a $67.5 million settlement to avoid civil trial on fraud and insider trading charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission, but prosecutors pursuing the criminal case against him found that his actions did not amount to crimes.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
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I'm not going to remember any person saying that they are this or that and then searching to "catch them in a lie".
Just sounds childish.
Oh, first it takes way too much time to use the board's search engine. Now it's too childish. To each its own! The search comes in handy to expose liars and gimmicks.
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People to Blame for the Financial Crisis
Bill Clinton
(http://img.timeinc.net/time/photoessays/2009/blame_25/blame_25_clinton.jpg)
"Among his biggest strokes of free-wheeling capitalism was the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, a cornerstone of Depression-era regulation. He also signed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which exempted credit-default swaps from regulation. In 1995 Clinton loosened housing rules by rewriting the Community Reinvestment Act, which put added pressure on banks to lend in low-income neighborhoods."
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877322,00.html
Bill Clinton: I should have better regulated derivatives
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-02-16/politics/bill.clinton.qanda_1_hillary-clinton-investment-banks-gramm-leach-bliley-act?_s=PM:POLITICS
"As the world financial system implodes, Democrats have blamed the Bush administration's lack of regulation for creating the conditions for collapse. But a top Clinton regulator acknowledges that he and his colleagues a decade ago "beat back" regulatory efforts that could have prevented credit markets from becoming so precariously balanced they were “milliseconds” from disaster."
http://www.propublica.org/article/former-clinton-official-says-democrats-obama-advisers-share-blame-for-marke
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said President Bill Clinton’s administration “ought to have done more” in regulating the derivatives market “to protect the American public.”
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-01/clinton-team-should-have-done-more-on-derivatives-gensler-says.html
"In the late 1990s, Phil Gramm and Jim Leach were chairmen of the Senate and House Banking Committees. They wanted to deregulate--and they had the votes to deregulate unless Clinton wanted to make it into an all-out war and assemble a coalition to back a veto, which he did not."
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/05/more-on-clinton-era-regulation-of-derivatives.html
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Oh, first it takes way too much time to use the board's search engine. Now it's too childish. To each its own! The search comes in handy to expose liars and gimmicks.
Plus it's fun. :D
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george w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
With George W. Bush As Prez, Dow Drops Most Points Ever
Jan. 20 2009--Call it "Mission Unaccomplished."
George W. Bush leaves office today with the Dow Jones industrial average off 2,306 points from when he took over: The worst performance for any U.S. president.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/2965319
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george w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
With George W. Bush As Prez, Dow Drops Most Points Ever
Jan. 20 2009--Call it "Mission Unaccomplished."
George W. Bush leaves office today with the Dow Jones industrial average off 2,306 points from when he took over: The worst performance for any U.S. president.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/2965319
-
george w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
The end of the Bush stock market
Jan 16, 2009
Today marks the end of the Bush stock market.
He has presided over the evisceration of more than $4.6 trillion of U.S. stock market wealth as measured by the S&P 500.
http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/2009/01/16/the-end-of-the-bush-stock-market/
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Nasdaq next stop 1400.....
The train stops here dudes get out while you can.....
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Oh, first it takes way too much time to use the board's search engine. Now it's too childish. To each its own! The search comes in handy to expose liars and gimmicks.
Yes... It's childish and takes too long.
Exposing someone on the internet... wooooohooo.
::)
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Yes... It's childish and takes too long.
Exposing someone on the internet... wooooohooo.
::)
It takes too long? Two seconds too long? LOL. It's ok tu_holmes! Simple computer tasks are too difficult for some people.
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It takes too long? Two seconds too long? LOL. It's ok tu_holmes! Simple computer tasks are too difficult for some people.
Yes, they are very difficult.
Let me know how your return on investment on internet "ownings" is going...
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Yes, they are very difficult.
Let me know how your return on investment on internet "ownings" is going...
"ownings" are not my goal here. But you can't have a decent discussion here with a gimmick. So I'm glad Beach Bum exposed this gimmick, Mons Venus.
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Things seem on the verge of collapse again.
-
Home Price Decline Accelerates
February 22, 2011
National home prices are falling at an increasing rate and have nearly returned to their post-crash lows, according to the newest Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price indices.
http://www.mortgageloan.com/home-price-decline-accelerates-8401
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george w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down.
mark my words.
With George W. Bush As Prez, Dow Drops Most Points Ever
Jan. 20 2009 --Call it "Mission Unaccomplished."
George W. Bush leaves office today with the Dow Jones industrial average off 2,306 points from when he took over: The worst performance for any U.S. president.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/2965319
The end of the Bush stock market
Jan 16, 2009
Today marks the end of the Bush stock market.
He has presided over the evisceration of more than $4.6 trillion of U.S. stock market wealth as measured by the S&P 500.
http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/2009/01/16/the-end-of-the-bush-stock-market/
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Hmm makes Obama look pretty good considering :P
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Hmm makes Obama look pretty good considering :P
::) ::)
Only to someone without a clue.
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Mons Venus is ex Military?
Try again loser.
-NT
I see you posted a picture of your alleged grand piano again. Why did you post that days ago, along with pictures of you hugging muscle men, then deleted them all? Now you post this picture again?
What? So just because you allegedly own a grand piano and take pictures hugging muscular men, we are all supposed to follow your ill financial advice and agree with your opinions without question?
Why the urge to prove yourself here anyway?
-
::) ::)
Only to someone without a clue.
;)
-
With George W. Bush As Prez, Dow Drops Most Points Ever
Jan. 20 2009--Call it "Mission Unaccomplished."
George W. Bush leaves office today with the Dow Jones industrial average off 2,306 points from when he took over: The worst performance for any U.S. president.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/2965319
Clinton is responsible for starting this mess back in the 90s, Bush continued it, Obama is continuing it. Unless someone stops it, there will be more economic melt downs and they will get more and more severe. Solely blaming Bush is ignorant.
Clinton
"Among his biggest strokes of free-wheeling capitalism was the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act, a cornerstone of Depression-era regulation. He also signed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which exempted credit-default swaps from regulation. In 1995 Clinton loosened housing rules by rewriting the Community Reinvestment Act, which put added pressure on banks to lend in low-income neighborhoods."
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350_1877322,00.html
Bill Clinton: I should have better regulated derivatives
http://articles.cnn.com/2009-02-16/politics/bill.clinton.qanda_1_hillary-clinton-investment-banks-gramm-leach-bliley-act?_s=PM:POLITICS
"As the world financial system implodes, Democrats have blamed the Bush administration's lack of regulation for creating the conditions for collapse. But a top Clinton regulator acknowledges that he and his colleagues a decade ago "beat back" regulatory efforts that could have prevented credit markets from becoming so precariously balanced they were “milliseconds” from disaster."
http://www.propublica.org/article/former-clinton-official-says-democrats-obama-advisers-share-blame-for-marke
Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said President Bill Clinton’s administration “ought to have done more” in regulating the derivatives market “to protect the American public.”
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-01/clinton-team-should-have-done-more-on-derivatives-gensler-says.html
"In the late 1990s, Phil Gramm and Jim Leach were chairmen of the Senate and House Banking Committees. They wanted to deregulate--and they had the votes to deregulate unless Clinton wanted to make it into an all-out war and assemble a coalition to back a veto, which he did not."
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2010/05/more-on-clinton-era-regulation-of-derivatives.html
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Mons Venus is ex Military?
Try again loser.
-NT
LOL! So Mons claimed to be a former soldier and you claim to be a former soldier? ::)
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HomeBusiness .February 23, 2011
Troubled banks rise to highest level in 18 years
The number of banks at risk of failing made up nearly 12 percent of all federally insured banks in the final three months of 2010, the highest level in 18 years
..
(CBS)
(AP) The number of banks at risk of failing made up nearly 12 percent of all federally insured banks in the final three months of 2010, the highest level in 18 years.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said Wednesday that the number of banks on its confidential "problem" list rose to 884 in the October-December quarter, up from 860 in the previous quarter. Those are banks rated by examiners as having very low capital cushions against risk.
Twenty-two banks have failed so far this year. And more banks are at risk, even as reported the industry's highest earnings as a group since the financial crisis hit three years ago.
Only a small fraction of the 7,657 federally insured banks about 1.4 percent with assets of more than $10 billion are driving the bulk of the earnings growth. They are the largest banks, including Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.
The big banks accounted for about $20.6 billion of the industry earnings of $21.7 billion in the fourth quarter. The total earnings compared with a net loss of $1.8 billion in the same quarter of 2009. The agency said bank earnings were buoyed in the latest quarter by reduced charges for soured loans.
Most of the big banks have recovered with help from federal bailout money and record-low borrowing rates. On the other side, many smaller banks are struggling.
Last year, 157 U.S. banks were brought down by the soured economy and mounting loan defaults. That was the most in one year since 1992, the height of the savings and loan crisis. They were mostly smaller or regional banks. The failures compare with 25 in 2008 and three in 2007. They cost the federal deposit insurance fund an estimated $21 billion in 2010.
Smaller and regional banks depend heavily on making loans for commercial property and development sectors that have suffered huge losses. Companies shut down in the recession, vacating shopping malls and office buildings financed by the loans.
Overall, banks' net income reached a three-year high of $87.5 billion in the October-December quarter. That contrasted with a loss of $10.6 billion in 2009. But Bair said banks need to lend more vigorously as the economy recovers.
Bank industry revenue remained fairly strong through the financial crisis, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair noted, but there is little "upward momentum."
"A key reason why revenues haven't grown faster is that loans have not been growing," Bair said at a news conference. "It's not going as at fast a pace as I would like to see."
The problem is partly due to continued uncertainty about the economy on the part of bankers, Bair said. But she added: "I also think that banks need to get back to the basics of making loans."
Loan balances declined at a majority of U.S. banks in the October-December quarter, falling by $51.8 billion, or 0.4 percent, from the July-September quarter.
A change reported Monday by Bank of America for results from its FIA Card Services subsidiary for 2009 and 2010 caused the FDIC to significantly revise its industry earnings for the three past quarters. For the January-March quarter of 2009, industry net income was revised to a $6.5 billion net loss from the previously reported $7.6 billion profit. The net loss in the April-June quarter of 2009 widened to $12.7 billion from $3.7 billion, and net income in the July-September quarter of 2010 increased to $24.7 billion from $14.5 billion.
The FDIC's deposit insurance fund, which fell into the red in 2009, posted a slight improvement in the October-December quarter. Its deficit narrowed to $7.4 billion from $8 billion in the third quarter. Bair said the agency expects the balance to turn positive this year.
The spate of bank failures that began to accelerate in 2008 are expected to cost the insurance fund about $100 billion through 2013.
The FDIC is backed by the government, and deposits are guaranteed up to $250,000 per account. Also, the agency still has tens of billions in loss reserves apart from the insurance fund.
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LOL! So Mons claimed to be a former soldier and you claim to be a former soldier? ::)
Never address homotoxin directly. You and I are little people and he's important. So the pecking order is I say something to you > you tell loco > loco tells McTones > McTones tells 33 > 33 tells Strawman > Strawman tells Option D > Option D tells showstoppa > and showstoppa speaks directly to Mons.
BTW, stock pick today = LG - Buy high, sell low. You'll do fine.
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NT posts 1X per day and draws 70 THOUSAND views to his thread, by far the most popular on GetBig.
Conversely, Beach Bum (demoralized moderator) posts ALL DAY and can't draw flies to any thread he starts.
People know Winners. ;)
YOU Beach Bum are a Loser.
-NT
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=180577.0;attach=403499;image)
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=180577.0;attach=403500;image)
Good for you, Mons Venus! Nice jet!
A couple of good friends of mine are pilots. They've flown me over the city a few times just for fun. I can have my picture taken next to the planes they fly and claim they are my planes.
A couple of the companies I've done work for have their own private jets and flew me from one location to another for project meetings. I could have had my picture taken standing next to those jets and claimed that they were mine.
But I won't do that because I don't need to prove myself to anyone here or elsewhere. :)
Oh, and anyone can have their picture taken standing next to any celebrity.
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This guy has been in complete meltdown mode since he was outed for being MonsAnus and a handful of other gimmicks on here. Talk about living vicariously through Getbig.
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This guy has been in complete meltdown mode since he was outed for being MonsAnus and a handful of other gimmicks on here. Talk about living vicariously through Getbig.
Was he really Mons venus?
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Was he really Mons venus?
Neurotoxin = MonsVenus = Blacken007 = Whork25 = Snapple = 5-6 other gimmicks.
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NT posts 1X per day and draws 70 THOUSAND VIEWS to his thread, by far the most popular on GetBig.
Conversely, Beach Bum (demoralized moderator) posts ALL DAY and can't draw flies to any thread he starts.
People know Winners. ;)
YOU Beach Bum are a Loser.
-NT
Good job Mons Venus. You must be proud of your thread. :) Had I paid attention to your thread, I would have figured out your gimmick a long time ago.
But I should add that in the pages I've seen, looks like more than half consists of you quoting yourself.
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Was he really Mons venus?
Yes. And Cohibia. Not sure about the others, but I haven't paid attention.
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Never address homotoxin directly. You and I are little people and he's important. So the pecking order is I say something to you > you tell loco > loco tells McTones > McTones tells 33 > 33 tells Strawman > Strawman tells Option D > Option D tells showstoppa > and showstoppa speaks directly to Mons.
BTW, stock pick today = LG - Buy high, sell low. You'll do fine.
Oh snap. My bad. I did again.
Loco, can you please tell tony that I haven't been reading the Mons Venus thread, and that I'm sure he's very proud of the fact he has the longest thread on the Politics Board?
Can you also tell him that he used the same tactic with his 9/11 Conspiracy thread, that became very long because he kept quoting himself and repeatedly posting the same video clips?
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the main message to fellow getbiggers is:
when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad.
ultimately this will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
-NT
i anticipate a double dip recession.
-NT
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my biggest concern right now is a dollar crash.
when the dollar is finally removed as the Worlds reserve currency, all hell will break loose.
yes, we are THAT close.
protect your assets.
-NT
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But I thought obama and the dems focused like a laser on the economy from 2009 to 2011?
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But I thought obama and the dems focused like a laser on the economy from 2009 to 2011?
Bush started it...I hope when we get the next crap president doing the exact same shit who is a republican, you show the same vitality.
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If they pursue the same crazy kamikaze agenda you can count it.
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Bush started it...I hope when we get the next crap president doing the exact same shit who is a republican, you show the same vitality.
I thought this thread had been locked. ???
Bush did not start it. Reagan did, Bush 1 continued Reagan's mess, Clinton worsened Reagan's mess, Bush 2 continued Clinton's mess. Obama is worsening Bush 2's mess. America...and the rest of the world is doomed financially if this doesn't change. Many American's are already doomed, having lost their life savings, their jobs and their homes because of this mess.
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If they pursue the same crazy kamikaze agenda you can count it.
Looking forward to it...
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I thought this thread had been locked. ???
Bush did not start it. Reagan did, Bush 1 continued Reagan's mess, Clinton worsened Reagan's mess, Bush 2 continued Clinton's mess. Obama is worsening Bush 2's mess. America...and the rest of the world is doomed financially if this doesn't change. Many American's are already doomed, having lost their life savings, their jobs and their homes because of this mess.
I would agree but generally if you don't deify Reagan here you are an 'evil, left wing communist traitor'...I think Reagan was an overall terrible president but which president of recent memory was good? Can't think of any...
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BOVE: The Losses Bank Of America Is About To Take Are "Historic In Proportion"
TBI ^ | 6-2-2011 | Joe Weisenthal
DICK BOVE: The Losses Bank Of America Is About To Take Are "Historic In Proportion"
Joe Weisenthal
Jun. 2, 2011, 9:29 AM
In a comment out today, Dick Bove predicts huge losses ahead for Bank of America:
It is now believed that BAC will lose an additional $32B in the next three years related to the housing crisis. Approximately, $9B of this money will be derived from its reserve. The remaining $23B will be charged to earnings at the rate of $2B per quarter for the next three years. It is likely that the bank will sell additional assets to soften the impact on capital. To determine BAC’s exposure to the housing market five sectors were isolated: the securities portfolio, trusts serviced by the bank, the loan portfolio, reps and warranties, and the bank’s servicing portfolio. The losses were then estimated based on the bank’s recent experience. The biggest risk in the securities portfolio appears to come from the government backed securities.
All that being said, he thinks it's all priced in.
Conclusion: The losses BAC is about to take related to housing are historic in proportion. However, the stock seems to have already discounted this problem in its present price. Bove remains a buyer within the constraint of suggesting that bank portfolios be underweighted at the moment due to the deteriorating economic signals.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
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my biggest concern right now is a "dollar crash."
when the dollar is finally removed as the Worlds Reserve Currency, all hell will break loose.
yes, we are THAT close.
protect your assets.
-NT
Moody's Just Threatened To Slash The US Credit Rating
Jun. 2, 2011, 1:33 PM
Moody's is out with a comment saying that if there's no imminent progress on the debt ceiling fight, the US credit rating will be cut.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-warns-on-us-debt-rating-2011-6#ixzz1O94HY0Jl
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I thought this thread had been locked. ???
Bush did not start it. Reagan did, Bush 1 continued Reagan's mess, Clinton worsened Reagan's mess, Bush 2 continued Clinton's mess. Obama is worsening Bush 2's mess. America...and the rest of the world is doomed financially if this doesn't change. Many American's are already doomed, having lost their life savings, their jobs and their homes because of this mess.
lol. So Mons Venus changed his name back to NT from Prognosticator. Loco will El Profeta be back?
Also waiting for Mons Venus to respond to this:
neuro, we have all read past posts where you claimed to be republican, I remember them too. Now you're saying you're a bigtime liberal dem? This is a transistion that actually does happen to people. I've watched others go through it and I've gone through it and back over the decades. Can you give us a little more background to your comments. Otherwise, it does look like a gimmick to the people posting here.
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lol. So Mons Venus changed his name back to NT from Prognosticator. Loco will El Profeta be back?
Also waiting for Mons Venus to respond to this:
Oh yes, El Profeta lives on. :)
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Oh yes, El Profeta lives on. :)
Thread saved. :D
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BOVE: The Losses Bank Of America Is About To Take Are "Historic In Proportion"
TBI ^ | 6-2-2011 | Joe Weisenthal
DICK BOVE: The Losses Bank Of America Is About To Take Are "Historic In Proportion"
Joe Weisenthal
Jun. 2, 2011, 9:29 AM
In a comment out today, Dick Bove predicts huge losses ahead for Bank of America:
It is now believed that BAC will lose an additional $32B in the next three years related to the housing crisis. Approximately, $9B of this money will be derived from its reserve. The remaining $23B will be charged to earnings at the rate of $2B per quarter for the next three years. It is likely that the bank will sell additional assets to soften the impact on capital. To determine BAC’s exposure to the housing market five sectors were isolated: the securities portfolio, trusts serviced by the bank, the loan portfolio, reps and warranties, and the bank’s servicing portfolio. The losses were then estimated based on the bank’s recent experience. The biggest risk in the securities portfolio appears to come from the government backed securities.
All that being said, he thinks it's all priced in.
Conclusion: The losses BAC is about to take related to housing are historic in proportion. However, the stock seems to have already discounted this problem in its present price. Bove remains a buyer within the constraint of suggesting that bank portfolios be underweighted at the moment due to the deteriorating economic signals.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The major banks are not solvent and haven't been in quite some time.
Oh to have a peek behind the curtain....
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S&P range 1300-1340
major institutional support resides @ 1300
-NT
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QE2 (600 Billion Dollars) was utilized to prop up both the stock & bond markets. all this ends later this month. (June)
with the Fed unable to prop markets, i anticipate stocks heading lower.
the secular bear market rally (since march 2009) was built primarily on printed fiat money.
exercise extreme caution moving forward.
-NT
-
QE2 (600 Billion Dollars) was utilized to prop up both the stock & bond markets. all this ends later this month. (June)
with the Fed unable to prop markets, i anticipate stocks heading lower.
the secular bear market rally (since march 2009) was built primarily on printed fiat money.
exercise extreme caution moving forward.
-NT
There will be more QE justy under another progrma name.
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There will be more QE justy under another progrma name.
The Fed will just reinvest money it has made from maturing debt and an astronomically large balance sheet.
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i anticipate a double dip recession.
-NT
Back Toward Double Dip
Friday, June 3, 2011
The May jobs report is a disaster — the weakest reading since September. Non-farm payrolls grew only 54,000 last month, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private employment rose only 83,000 — the smallest growth since last June. Government payrolls dropped 29,000.
The overall jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent.
Together with plummeting housing prices, falling wages for non-supervisory workers, a paltry 1.8 percent growth in the first quarter, and a precipitous drop in consumer confidence, the picture should be clear to anyone able to see clearly.
The recovery has stalled.
http://robertreich.org/
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ac·cu·rate adj \ˈa-kyə-rət, ˈa-k(ə-)rət\
Definition of ACCURATE
1: free from error especially as the result of care <an accurate diagnosis>
2: conforming exactly to truth or to a standard : exact <providing accurate color>
3: able to give an accurate result <an accurate gauge>
— ac·cu·rate·ly \ˈa-kyə-rət-lē, ˈa-k(ə-)rət-, ˈa-k(y)ərt-\ adverb
— ac·cu·rate·ness \-kyə-rət-nəs, -k(ə-)rət-nəs\ noun
-NT
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Hahaha, what's the matter, gimmick? Weren't you going to the Alpha board? Or did you finally realize that no one reads your drivel down there?
I move that your posts are deleted as you said you were leaving.
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the main message to getbiggers is:
when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad.
ultimately this will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
-NT
America the Angry
6/5/11
Gas and grocery prices are soaring, the housing market is crashing to new lows, and yet another dismal jobs report has confirmed a stubbornly high unemployment rate. Could the anger fueling the Arab Spring soon bring club-wielding protesters to America?
According to an exclusive poll by Newsweek and The Daily Beast, reality is beginning to break down Americans' normally optimistic attitude. Three-quarters of our respondents think the country is on the wrong track. A majority say the anxiety wrought by this recession has caused relationship problems and sleep deficiency. Two-thirds even report being angry at God
By almost four to one, Americans say our economy is not delivering the jobs we need, 81 percent to 12 percent.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-06-04/anger-in-america-could-the-arab-spring-happen-in-the-us/
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Michael Pento: Central Bankruptcy – Why QE3 is Inevitable
By The Daily Ticker | Daily Ticker – Tue, May 31, 2011 6:58 AM EDT
The following was published with author's permission.
As the U.S. economy seemingly limps out of the Great Recession most analysts now assume that the Federal Reserve will soon join the tide of other central banks and bring an end to the current era of unprecedented monetary expansion. Markets expect that Fed will begin withdrawing liquidity this summer, not too long after this latest round of the quantitative easing comes to an end. But this is simply a delusion.
There are many political and economic reasons why the Fed will find it extremely difficult to absorb the liquidity that it has relentlessly pumped into the economy since the beginning of the financial crisis. But its biggest problem may be that the ammunition it carries on its balance sheet is insufficient to the task.
In order to withdraw liquidity the Fed must sell most, if not all, of the assets on its balance sheet. The questions are: what types of assets will it sell, how fast will they sell them, who will buy, and what price will the market bear?
In December 2007, before the Great Recession began the Fed had an equity ratio of around 6% on a balance sheet that totaled approximately $900 billion. The assets it held at that time were almost exclusively comprised of short term Treasury debt. This had been the norm for the vast majority of Fed history. Given the size of the Treasury market and the bankability of its short term debt, the value of such a portfolio was considered virtually bulletproof.
But beginning in late 2008, as financial institutions careened towards insolvency, the alphabet soup of Fed lending facilities (TAF, TSLF, PDCF and the CPFF just to name a few) bought all kinds of assets that the Fed never before held. Through quantitative easing efforts alone, Ben Bernanke has added $1.8 trillion of longer term GSE debt and Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). (In fact, the Fed now holds more of these mortgage instruments than their entire balance sheet before the crash.) This has drastically changed the complexion of the assets it must now sell.
But as the size of the Fed's balance sheet ballooned, the dollar amount of capital held at the Fed has remained fairly constant. Today, the Fed has $52.5 billion of capital backing a $2.7 trillion balance sheet. While the size of the portfolio expanded three fold (and the quality of its assets diminished), the Fed's equity ratio plunged from 6% to just 2%. Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30 to 1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51 to 1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2% the Fed itself would be wiped out.
The Fed acknowledged this insolvency risk on January 6th when it modified its accounting rules to ensure that it never technically runs out of capital. In a system that would make Enron jealous, the new gimmickry allows Fed losses to be booked directly as Treasury liabilities. In other words, just throw it on the deficit pile with the rest of the Federal red ink. But fictional solvency has nothing to do with its ability to successfully withdraw liquidity.
What will happen to the value of the Fed's mortgage assets if rising inflation causes the Fed to sell in haste back to the primary dealers? In an environment of rising interest rates (that such a tightening pre-supposes) the value of the assets should fall. And, given the continued deterioration of the real estate market, there may be a weak market for low yielding mortgage debt.
If these financial institutions were forced to pay par for the Fed's mortgage assets, Bernanke would destroy a great deal of their capital and a new breed of zombie banks would re-emerge. There is certainly no political will in the United States to force the financial industry further into the public sector. If the assets are sold at the fair market price (which will likely be far below what the Fed paid), Bernanke would burn through his balance sheet before all of the prior Fed liquidity injections were neutralized.
Recently some Fed officials announced that they will likely raise interest rates before they sell assets. The truth is that without the ability to fully withdraw prior liquidity the Fed is incapable of significantly raising interest rates. After all, the Fed can't raise rates by fiat. It must sell assets to do so. Similarly, to support the dollar it must take money out of circulation, which is also accomplished by asset sales.
But the Fed's arsenal is no longer stocked with high grade weaponry. Given what is has on hand, the Fed will be unable to raise interest rates and support the currency. In essence, they have become impotent in removing the inflation they have so diligently created.
In the end, any meaningful attempt to withdraw liquidity will not only bankrupt the institution but also zero out their remaining credibility. That's why they'll never even make an honest attempt.
Michael Pento is Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital. His daily economic blog "Pentonomics" can be seen on the firm's website.
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S&P range 1300-1340
major institutional support resides @ 1300
-NT
$$$ rotating into UNG (natural gas)
-NT
S&P broke institutional support @ 1300 today.
continued market weakness w/ momentum to downside. primary uptrend established in 2010 breached.
UNG (natural gas) up 2.51% today. showing strength.
new S&P range 1250-1300.
-NT
-
the main message to fellow getbiggers is:
when you combine a record weak dollar/greenback, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad.
this ultimately will result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
The Economic Perfect Storm That's Killing Consumer Spending
Consumers are struggling. The housing market is in worse shape than ever, and manufacturing is fading. Economic growth is far undershooting the upbeat expectations at the beginning of the year, even as global growth is slowing sharply. Now, amid new signs that job growth is cooling off, the first-quarter’s weakness is extending into the second quarter, and economists are once again ratcheting down their 2011 forecasts. Is the recovery in trouble?
It’s a wave of worry that’s giving investors agita. Stock prices have tanked more than 5 percent since early May, as economic data turned sour, and it looks like the economy’s woes run deeper than expensive oil and Japanese supply disruptions. The growing fear is that troubles in consumer spending, housing and job creation could limit growth for some time. The fiscal stimulus and monetary support offered by policymakers -- have not resulted in the level of economic growth that would create jobs, and it’s not likely that the government will open its checkbook again anytime soon.
Consumers, who are central to solid and sustained growth, are at the heart of the new worries. Their pullback is a big reason why the economy is slowing down, and it’s not just because of high gas prices. Labor markets are not generating income at a rate fast enough to support a healthy pace of spending. The Labor Dept. last week reported that U.S. payrolls increased by a slim 54,000 workers in May, suggesting new hiring caution amid slower growth. Labor also revised March and April job gains downward, and the unemployment rate headed back up, to 9.1 percent last month, from 9 percent in April and 8.8 percent in March.
Read more: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2011/06/06/Economic-Perfect-Storm-Halts-Consumer-Spending.aspx#ixzz1Ocf4Tbc0
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S&P tested resistance @ 1300 and failed, closing @ 1284
range 1250-1300
-NT
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Members of Congress Get Abnormally High Returns From Their Stocks
Members of the House of Representatives considerably outperform the stock market in their personal investments, according to a new academic study.
Four university researchers examined 16,000 common stock transactions made by approximately 300 House representatives from 1985 to 2001, and found what they call "significant positive abnormal returns," with portfolios based on congressional trades beating the market by about 6 percent annually.
What's their secret? The report speculates, but does not conclude, it could have something to do with the ability members of Congress have to trade on non-public information or to vote their own pocketbooks -- or both.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/24/members-of-congress-get-a_n_866387.html
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S&P range 1250-1300
-NT
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S&P broke institutional support @ 1300.
continued market weakness w/ momentum to downside. primary uptrend established in 2010 breached.
S&P range 1250-1300.
-NT
Dow down 172 points. S&P closed lower @ 1270
range 1250-1300
-NT
-
QE2 (600 Billion Dollars) was utilized to prop up both the stock & bond markets. all this ends later this month. (June)
with the Fed unable to prop markets, i anticipate stocks heading lower.
the secular bear market rally (since march 2009) was built primarily on printed fiat money.
exercise extreme caution moving forward.
-NT
-
as we approach S&P 1250 area (institutional support) watch for a short cover/ bear market rally.
-NT
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S&P closed flat @ 1271 today.
any breakdown below 1270... high probability we test 1250 support. (200sma)
range 1250-1300
-NT
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Larry Summers: The American Economy is Sick
06/13/11 03:24 PM ET
NEW YORK -- Safely removed from the Obama White House, where he was a prime architect of economic policy, Larry Summers now tells us what most regular people have known for too long: The economy is ailing and in grave need of help.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/13/larry-summers-economy-is-sick_n_876106.html?icid=main%7Chtmlws-main-n%7Cdl1%7Csec3_lnk3%7C215930
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as we approach S&P 1250 area (institutional support) watch for a short cover/ bear market rally.
-NT
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Larry Summers: The American Economy is Sick
06/13/11 03:24 PM ET
NEW YORK -- Safely removed from the Obama White House, where he was a prime architect of economic policy, Larry Summers now tells us what most regular people have known for too long: The economy is ailing and in grave need of help.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/13/larry-summers-economy-is-sick_n_876106.html?icid=main%7Chtmlws-main-n%7Cdl1%7Csec3_lnk3%7C215930
Help? From who? The same idiots that fucked everything up?
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QE2 (600 Billion Dollars) was utilized to prop up both the stock & bond markets. all this ends later this month. (June)
with the Fed unable to prop markets, i anticipate stocks heading lower.
the secular bear market rally (since march 2009) was built primarily on printed fiat money.
exercise extreme caution moving forward.
-NT
-
any breakdown below 1270... high probability we test 1250 support. (200sma)
range 1250-1300
-NT
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U.S. Stocks Fall on Slow Recovery, Greece
Jun 15, 2011 4:12 PM ET
U.S. stocks sank the most in two weeks, threatening to erase the 2011 gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and the euro slid the most in more than a month amid rising concern that Greece will default and evidence that the American economy is slowing. Treasuries rallied.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.7 percent to a three-month low of 1,265.42 at 4 p.m. in New York, trimming its year-to-date gain to 0.6 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-15/euro-falls-amid-eu-deadlock-over-greek-crisis-aussie-oil-drop.html
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Dow down -179 points. S&P lower by -22.00, closing @ 1265
range 1250-1300
-NT
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as we approach S&P 1250 area (institutional support) watch for a short cover/ bear market rally.
-NT
as noted 1250 acted as support w/ anticipated short cover rally.
holding the 200sma is crucial. if not we head much lower.
25sma (1300) should act as resistance to the upside.
range 1260-1300
-NT
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thank you neuro. Good stuff as usual...
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when the S&P finally breaks 1260 (200sma) expect a HUGE sell off.
unless QE3 is established, a weak Fed. propped Market has no recourse but to head LOWER.
the secular Bear Market rally that began in March 2009 has absolutely no foundation.
with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a Bear Market rally in the very near future.
exercise caution.
range 1260-1300
-NT
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U.S. Stocks Slump as Oracle Retreats
Jun 24, 2011 4:04 PM ET
U.S. stocks retreated, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower for a third straight day, as concern about the European debt crisis intensified and Oracle Corp. (ORCL) dragged down technology shares.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-24/u-s-stock-futures-advance-on-goods-hopes-accenture-gains-as-oracle-slips.html
^^
noise and excuses. ignore it.
just follow money flow.
range 1260-1300
-NT
-
thank you neuro. Good stuff as usual...
thanks.
-NT
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
if breached, prepare for a LONG painful sell off.
-NT
-
The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words!
- The prophet
8)
Stocks on track for best 1-week gain in two years
July 1, 2011: 3:39 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks started the second half of the year firing on all cylinders Friday, on track to post the strongest week in two years
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/chart_ws_index_dow3pm.top.png)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2
- El Profeta
-
8)
Stocks on track for best 1-week gain in two years
July 1, 2011: 3:39 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks started the second half of the year firing on all cylinders Friday, on track to post the strongest week in two years
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/chart_ws_index_dow3pm.top.png)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2
- El Profeta
;D
-
Mons Venus if you post that 911 CT crap again, after it has been moved, your entire thread will be moved. You have a place to post till your heart's content. Thanks.
-
May 31, 2011
Home prices hit new lows in March, falling past the bottom reached two years ago and renewing concerns about the economy's ability to fully recover from the grip of recession.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of housing prices in 20 metropolitan areas declined 3.6% from March 2010, its sixth consecutive year-over-year drop. That pushed the index below its most recent bottom of April 2009, confirming the widely anticipated "double dip" in home values.
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/may/31/business/la-fi-home-prices-20110531
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
as anticipated the 200sma (1260) acted as our 'Gauntlet' following a solid 2 Month sell off. subsequent short covering w/ attendant end of quarter 'window dressing' combined for a nice 5 Day rally.
current range 1320-1340
-NT
-
8)
Stocks on track for best 1-week gain in two years
July 1, 2011: 3:39 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks started the second half of the year firing on all cylinders Friday, on track to post the strongest week in two years
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/chart_ws_index_dow3pm.top.png)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2
- El Profeta
;D
*STOOGE BUMP*
-
U.S. Stocks Slump Amid Debt Limit Concerns
Jul 18, 2011
U.S. stocks fell, extending losses from last week for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, amid concern American lawmakers will fail to reach a deal on the nation’s debt limit two weeks before a deadline
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/stock-index-futures-fall-as-debt-deadline-looms-morgan-stanley-declines.html
tick, tock...
-
my biggest concern right now is a dollar crash.
when the dollar is finally removed as the Worlds reserve currency, all hell will break loose.
yes, we are THAT close.
protect your assets.
-NT
-
my biggest concern right now is a dollar crash.
when the dollar is finally removed as the Worlds reserve currency, all hell will break loose.
yes, we are THAT close.
protect your assets.
-NT
U.S. May Lose AAA Rating Even With a Debt Deal, BlackRock, Templeton Say
July 27, 2011
BlackRock Inc., Loomis Sayles & Co. and Franklin Templeton Investments said the U.S. faces losing its top-level debt rating as officials struggle to raise the $14.3 trillion borrowing limit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-27/u-s-may-lose-aaa-rating-even-with-a-debt-deal-blackrock-templeton-say.html
---------
US loses AAA rating = Dollar crash
Tick tock....
-
message to GBers: when you combine a record weak dollar, the worst housing and credit bust since 1929 with hyperinflation, record gas and oil prices, a tapped out/in debt consumer who today accounts for 70% of our economy, it's bad.
this will ultimately result in a DEEP RECESSION and STAGFLATION. (non-growing economy with high inflation) considered by top economists as the WORST of all possible scenarios.
-NT
Tick tock...
-
Once a deal is struck on the debt issue, I think we'll see PM's take a hit. It will be a perfect buying opportunity. If you let this one slip by, you have no one else to blame but yourself.
-
Once a deal is struck on the debt issue, I think we'll see PM's take a hit. It will be a perfect buying opportunity. If you let this one slip by, you have no one else to blame but yourself.
agreed.
load up on PM's with any pullback.
-NT
-
anticipate a Dollar rally with debt ceiling raised.
-NT
-
*STOOGE BUMP*
;)
The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words!
- El Profeta
8)
-
i anticipate a double dip recession.
-NT
Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Fell in June
Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly dropped in June, raising the risk that a slowdown in business investment will weigh on the world’s largest economy in the second half of the year.
Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years fell 2.1 percent after a 1.9 percent gain the prior month that was smaller than last reported, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Demand for business equipment, including machinery and computers, also dropped.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-27/orders-for-u-s-durable-goods-unexpectedly-decreased-in-june.html
-
;)
8)
El Profeta strikes again. :)
-
Dow slides on debt fears
July 27, 2011
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks retreated deep into negative territory on Wednesday as Congress remained stalled on raising the debt ceiling, and an economic report showed a significant slowdown in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) sank 205 points, or 1.6%; the S&P 500 (SPX) shed 27 points, or 2%; and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) lost 76 points, or 2.7%.
-
anticipate a Dollar rally with debt ceiling raised.
-NT
Gold Ends Lower On Dollar Strength
7/27/11
--Comex Aug gold fell $1.70, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,615.10 a troy ounce after setting intraday record of $1,628.80.
--Sudden rally in dollar triggered selling pressure in gold.
--Market anxiety undermined gold's record-breaking rally as investors chose to sit out the U.S. debt crisis.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110727-717147.html
-
Dollar Rally continued yesterday as anticipated. ;)
Dow down 600 points over last 6 trading days.
-NT
-
looking forward, anticipate a psychological short cover rally once 'debt ceiling deal' is finalized.
until then...we head lower.
off to Cayman Islands for the weekend. wheels up! 8)
-NT
-
Dollar Rally continued yesterday as anticipated. ;)
Dow down 600 points over last 6 trading days.
-NT
Stock market fluctuations continue, as foretold by El Profeta! ;)
The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words!
- El Profeta
8)
-
looking forward, anticipate a psychological short cover rally once 'debt ceiling deal' is finalized.
until then...we head lower.
off to Cayman Islands for the weekend. wheels up! 8)
-NT
Stocks: Worst week in 2011
July 29, 2011: 4:19 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended Friday's session sharply lower, posting their worst weekly performance in more than a year, as investors grow increasingly worried that Washington may not reach a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the deadline.
At the preliminary close, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 97 points, or 0.8%, to close at 12,143. Friday's selling was broad, with 28 out of the Dow's 30 members trading in the red.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/29/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
----
as anticipated.....we headed lower.
like taking candy from a baby. ;)
-NT
-
looking forward, anticipate a psychological short cover rally once 'debt ceiling deal' is finalized.
until then...we head lower.
-NT
-
i anticipate a double dip recession.
-NT
Sputtering Economy Sends Dow Plunging 266 Points
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/02/sputtering-economy-sends-dow-plunging-260-points/
Stocks plunge, S&P goes negative for year
August 2, 2011
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks plunged and bond yields dropped to a nine-month low Tuesday as investors worried about the weak economy following another disappointing economic report.
The selloff was so broad and so deep it pushed the S&P 500 into negative territory for the year.
At the preliminary close, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) plunged 266 points, or 2.2%, to close at 11,867.00
-
PIMCO CEO: US worse off from debt debate
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2011/08/02/n_erian_self_inflicted.cnnmoney/?iid=HP_River
politicians shamelessly OVERPLAYED their hand on Debt issue.
Wall Street responded appropriately by pounding stocks.
PM's remain strong.
-NT
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
if breached, prepare for a LONG painful sell off.
-NT
S&P breached 1260 today closing @ 1254
-NT
-
Still got the triple A though. Lol ::)
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
if breached, prepare for a LONG painful sell off.
-NT
smoke & mirrors (QE1&2) rallied Market from '2009' to '2011'
expect nothing more than 'short cover rallies' from this point forward.
1230 is next support level.
-NT
-
smoke & mirrors (QE1&2) rallied Market from '2009' to '2011'
expect nothing more than 'short cover rallies' from this point forward.
1230 is next support level.
-NT
S&P bounced off support, (1230) closing @ 1260
following 8 straight down days, (9 days being a 34 yr record!) shorts finally covered
market is temporarily oversold
Dow up 29 points @ 11,896
-NT
-
8)
Stocks on track for best 1-week gain in two years
July 1, 2011: 3:39 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks started the second half of the year firing on all cylinders Friday, on track to post the strongest week in two years
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/chart_ws_index_dow3pm.top.png)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/01/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2
- El Profeta
;D
in the event 1230 is breached, S&P 1200 comes into focus.
any pertinent information to add 2 stooges loco & Beach Bum? ;D
-NT
-
in the event 1230 is breached, S&P 1200 comes into focus.
any pertinent information to add 2 stooges loco & Beach Bum?
-NT
Yes, my fellow stooge Neurotoxin!
Stock market fluctuations continue, as foretold by El Profeta! ;)
The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words!
- El Profeta
8)
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
if breached, prepare for a LONG painful sell off.
-NT
-
you hate the fact that I am vastly superior to you, and there is nothing you can do about it! ;)
-NT
-
Yes, my fellow stooge Neurotoxin!
Stock market fluctuations continue, as foretold by El Profeta! ;)
8)
you hate the fact that I am vastly superior to you, and there is nothing you can do about it! ;)
-NT
Copying and pasting, quoting yourself hundreds of times, seeking attention and approval from others, stating the obvious, posting 911 conspiracy theories, posting pictures of yourself with your arm around shirtless black males does not make you superior to anyone. ;)
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
if breached, prepare for a LONG painful sell off.
-NT
VERY painful day on WS ;)
think i'll upgrade my Citation V soon. ;D
-NT
-
in the event 1230 is breached, S&P 1200 comes into focus.
-NT
no real surprise today. S&P breached 1230, closing @ 1200
anticipate a strong 'short cover' rally.
btw-congrats to everyone who heeded my warnings! :)
to the naysayers....."the smell of YOUR money in MY account is intoxicating." :-*
-NT
Dow plunges 512 points
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Whoops! There goes any progress stocks made in 2011.
Stocks plunged Thursday, with the Dow tumbling 512 points just before the close, as fear about the global economy spooked investors.
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down 512 points, or 4%, with Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) among the biggest drags on the blue chip index.
The S&P 500 (SPX) was down a staggering 55 points, or 4.4%. Closing at 1200
The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 123 points, or 4.6%. Closing at 2556
-
in the event 1230 is breached, S&P 1200 comes into focus.
-NT
no real surprise today. S&P breached 1230, closing @ 1200
anticipate a strong 'short cover' rally.
btw-congrats to everyone who heeded my warnings! :)
to the naysayers....."the smell of YOUR money in MY account is intoxicating." :-*
-NT
Dow plunges 512 points
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Whoops! There goes any progress stocks made in 2011.
Stocks plunged Thursday, with the Dow tumbling 512 points just before the close, as fear about the global economy spooked investors.
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down 512 points, or 4%, with Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) among the biggest drags on the blue chip index.
The S&P 500 (SPX) was down a staggering 55 points, or 4.4%. Closing at 1200
The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 123 points, or 4.6%. Closing at 2556
-
btw-congrats to everyone who heeded my warnings! :)
to the naysayers....."the smell of YOUR money in MY account is intoxicating." :-*
No, congrats to those who didn't listen to you! Our money is not in your account. That's for sure. ;)
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
U.S. has 600,000 new millionaires
March 16, 2011: 1:37 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- What recession? The millionaire population jumped in the U.S. by 8% last year, fueled by the stock market recovery, according to an industry report on Wednesday.
The number of U.S. households worth at least $1 million rose to 8.4 million in 2010, compared to 7.8 million the prior year, according to a report by Spectrem Group.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/16/news/economy/millionaires/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
It will happen again, and again. Buy low, sell high, be confident when everybody else panics, be cautious when everybody else is confident. The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words! 8)
- El Profeta
-
Give it a rest guys. I appreciate what both of you have to say, but neuro gets props for getting this last one right. Loco is level headed and I like some of political stances, we can all benefit from eachother at times, let's cool it with the digs.
-
-
Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 - Present Monthly)
(http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/images/djia1900s.png)
^
|___ Great Depression (1930s)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
-
too many children wandering GetBig with NO moderators.
good luck navigating through the coming carnage. ;D
and remember, "NEVER look a gift horse in the mouth."
-NT
my biggest concern right now is a dollar crash.
when the dollar is finally removed as the Worlds reserve currency, all hell will break loose.
yes, we are THAT close.
protect your assets.
-NT
S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Friday downgraded the credit rating of the United States, stripping the world's largest economy of its prized AAA status.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/05/news/economy/downgrade_rumors/index.htm
-
::)
9/11 conspiracy theories have no place in a thread like this!
-
Give it a rest guys. I appreciate what both of you have to say, but neuro gets props for getting this last one right. Loco is level headed and I like some of political stances, we can all benefit from eachother at times, let's cool it with the digs.
Thanks Bindare_Dundat! But neuro gets props for getting what right? Neuro gets props for stealing, copying and pasting info from other people, and then claiming it as his own?
Current corporate insider selling/buying ratio: 7.74-to-1
-Prognosticator
Where did you get that ratio from?
Calculated it.
-Prognosticator
at least steal current stuff, asshole.
http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Bwahahahaha!
"In mid December, the last time I devoted a column to the insiders, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 7.07-to-1. Since then, unfortunately, the situation has not improved. For the week ending Jan. 21, for example, the comparable ratio was even more bearish at 7.74-to-1. For the latest reporting week, which ended this past Friday, the ratio was only marginally better at 5.45-to-1."http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Outed. lol . . . .
-
U.S. Stocks Plunge 634 points as S&P 500 Extends Worst Slump Since 2008 Bear Market
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/u-s-stock-futures-fall-amid-concern-s-p-cut-may-worsen-economic-slowdown.html
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PM stooge loco for Market Analysis. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
-
I love it !!!! ;D
-
Obama is failing and the US economy is failing, and you love this? ???
-
A broken clock is right twice a day...
-
Obama is failing and the US economy is failing, and you love this? ???
great day on Wall Street if positioned properly!
LOVE IT!!!!!!
PM loco for more info. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
-
BURN BABY BURN !!
-
A broken clock is right twice a day...
But Neuro is never right, not even once. All he does is copy and paste.
Current corporate insider selling/buying ratio: 7.74-to-1
-Prognosticator
Where did you get that ratio from?
Calculated it.
-Prognosticator
at least steal current stuff, asshole.
http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Bwahahahaha!
"In mid December, the last time I devoted a column to the insiders, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 7.07-to-1. Since then, unfortunately, the situation has not improved. For the week ending Jan. 21, for example, the comparable ratio was even more bearish at 7.74-to-1. For the latest reporting week, which ended this past Friday, the ratio was only marginally better at 5.45-to-1."http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Outed. lol . . . .
-
STOCKS DESTROYED AMID GLOBAL DEBT FREAKOUT: Here's What You Need To Know
http://www.businessinsider.com/
PM loco !! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
HAHAHAHAHA !!!!!!!!!!!!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
::)
Stocks are not destroyed, though Obama's chances for re-election might be. ;D
Stocks are down because the US got downgraded to AA for the first time in history, and it happened on Obama's watch. ;)
Stocks will recover! Mark my words! 8)
- El Profeta
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
if breached, prepare for a LONG painful sell off.
-NT
PM Bozo Loco for Market info.
-
BURN BABY BURN !!
Stock market slaughter
Dow plunges 635 points. It's the worst day on Wall Street since 2008 crisis
http://money.cnn.com/
PM Bozo Loco for market analysis.
-
As my fellow stooge Neuro says, PM loco for investment advice:
Buy low, sell high, be confident when everybody else panics, be cautious when everybody else is confident. The stock market fluctuates, and it will recover. Mark my words! 8)
- El Profeta
-
too many children wandering GetBig with NO moderators.
good luck navigating through the coming carnage. ;D
and remember, "NEVER look a gift horse in the mouth."
Bozo loco the Clown, The Dow thread is officially yours.
-NT
-
Bozo Loco the Clown, what should GBers do now? ???
buy and hold? ???
cost average down? ???
short cover rally soon? ???
S&P ranges? ???
HELP Bozo Loco!
-
Bozo Loco the Clown, what should GBers do now? ???
buy and hold? ???
cost average down? ???
short cover rally soon? ???
S&P ranges? ???
HELP Bozo Loco!
Funny how you have nothing left to do, but to resort to insulting me. ;D
-
Stocks are not destroyed, though Obama's chances for re-election might be. ;D
Stocks are down because the US got downgraded to AA for the first time in history, and it happened on Obama's watch. ;)
Stocks will recover! Mark my words! 8)
- El Profeta
8)
Dow soars 400 points in wild session
August 9, 2011: 5:11 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended a gut-wrenching session with huge gains -- erasing a big chunk of the prior session's steep losses
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/08/09/markets/markets_newyork/chart_ws_index_dow_201189162014.top.png)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/09/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?source=cnn_bin
- El Profeta
-
What was the volume on the rise?
-
They aren't increasing interest rates for at another 2 years, that makes it what, like almost 5 years of this? What happened the last time interest rates were held this low for only a few years?
-
Stocks are not destroyed, though Obama's chances for re-election might be. ;D
Stocks are down because the US got downgraded to AA for the first time in history, and it happened on Obama's watch. ;)
Stocks will recover! Mark my words! 8)
- El Profeta
8)
Dow surges 423 points
August 11, 2011: 4:12 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Rebound! Stock markets continued their schizophrenic week Thursday as all three indexes surged on positive earnings and labor market news
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/08/11/markets/markets_newyork/chart_ws_index_dow_201181115569.top.png)
http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/11/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?source=cnn_bin
- El Profeta
-
El Profeta is right again. :)
And what kind of person celebrates when people lose money in the market? ::)
-
And what kind of person celebrates when people lose money in the market? ::)
The person on the other side of the equation. For someone to lose in the market, someone gains.
The market is due for a correction for quite some time. It hasn't been able to due to the Fed and ECB interfering, simply put. Gold is still strong which says it's either over bought (unlikely) or there's more to come in this song and dance. There's still tremendous turmoil in the EU and the surging debt of the US is what has everyone shakey. The S&P downgrade was just a small kick-off to this.
With this much volitility and moving into a bearish market, for the average Joe, it's not a good idea to make any moves to jump in right now. There's just too much uncertainty with the major banks which is what's going to determine what happens.
-
The person on the other side of the equation. For someone to lose in the market, someone gains.
The market is due for a correction for quite some time. It hasn't been able to due to the Fed and ECB interfering, simply put. Gold is still strong which says it's either over bought (unlikely) or there's more to come in this song and dance. There's still tremendous turmoil in the EU and the surging debt of the US is what has everyone shakey. The S&P downgrade was just a small kick-off to this.
With this much volitility and moving into a bearish market, for the average Joe, it's not a good idea to make any moves to jump in right now. There's just too much uncertainty with the major banks which is what's going to determine what happens.
Yeah. I get that. I just don't see the need to celebrate someone else's misery.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Asshole.
You got me all excited when you claimed you were leaving for good. I had huge GB political board party that I was working on setting up.
I probably haven't been that happy in a long, long time.
And now, it's all crumbling down around me.
-
Haha.
-
S&P range 0.00-0.00 :-*
-NT
-
and Grandma's medicare is the real problem?
-NT
-
and Grandma's social security is the real problem?
-NT
-
when the dollar collapse finally occurs, NT recommends being divested in _____& _____ and invested in ____ &_____ to protect your family. if not you're REALLY fucked.
you sheeple have no clue what's coming. ;)
this should be FUN to watch!
-NT
-
-
U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Three-Decade Low Amid Economic Headwinds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-12/u-s-consumer-sentiment-falls-more-than-expected-to-54-9-in-michigan-index.html
S&P range 0.00-0.00
"living on a prayer"... ;)
-NT
-
Fearful Investors Exiting Stocks and Bonds Alike
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=14243138
S&P range 0.00-0.00
"some will WIN, ;) most will LOSE, ;D some are gonna sing the Blues" ...
"don't stop believing" :-*
-NT
-
S&P range: markets go UP and DOWN.
hope that helps. ;)
-NT
-
Current corporate insider selling/buying ratio: 7.74-to-1
-Prognosticator
Where did you get that ratio from?
Calculated it.
-Prognosticator
at least steal current stuff, asshole.
http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Bwahahahaha!
"In mid December, the last time I devoted a column to the insiders, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 7.07-to-1. Since then, unfortunately, the situation has not improved. For the week ending Jan. 21, for example, the comparable ratio was even more bearish at 7.74-to-1. For the latest reporting week, which ended this past Friday, the ratio was only marginally better at 5.45-to-1."http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Outed. lol . . . .
-
Fearful Investors Exiting Stocks and Bonds Alike
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=14243138
S&P range 0.00-0.00
"some will WIN, ;) most will LOSE, ;D some are gonna sing the Blues" ...
"don't stop believing" :-*
-NT
Stocks: 'It's a war zone out there' ;D
Aug 18 2011
Wall Street returned to sell-off mode on Thursday, as renewed concerns about the U.S. and global economies sent major indexes plunging and pushed gold to a new record high.
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/?iid=EL
-
predictable.. but another GREAT day on Wall Street. Dow DOWN 420 points!.
NT destroying amateurs wealth, day by day. 8)
Dow CRASHES 2,000 POINTS since May 1st. Hahahaha!! ;D
-NT
Follow Retard loco to the Poor House!
-
Dow Crashes 2,000 points since May 1st ;D
Let the BLOODBATH continue!!! ;D
amateurs like retard loco should NEVER play with seasoned WS Professionals. ;)
-NT
Follow retard loco To The Poor House ;D
-
Haha!! ;D ;D i see your afraid to post now. ;D ;D Hahaha!!!
fucking moron spick!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
::)
Now we all know that you are a racist, ignorant bastard.
Current corporate insider selling/buying ratio: 7.74-to-1
-Prognosticator
Where did you get that ratio from?
Calculated it.
-Prognosticator
at least steal current stuff, asshole.
http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Bwahahahaha!
"In mid December, the last time I devoted a column to the insiders, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 7.07-to-1. Since then, unfortunately, the situation has not improved. For the week ending Jan. 21, for example, the comparable ratio was even more bearish at 7.74-to-1. For the latest reporting week, which ended this past Friday, the ratio was only marginally better at 5.45-to-1."http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Outed. lol . . . .
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
-
Any INSIDE information Retard loco?
we need your expert help!!!! ;D ;D ;D
fmr NYSE specialist,
-NT
-
There will be another recession in the USA, in the near or somewhat distant, or very distant future. The stock market will at first surfer, but will later recover. Mark my words!
- El Profeta
8)
Be confident when others panic. Be cautious when others are confident.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 - Present Monthly)
(http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/images/djia1900s.png)
^
|___ Great Depression (1930s)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
-
And what kind of person celebrates when people lose money in the market? ::)
Who lost money? ???
beach, sounds as if you're following retard loco. ;)
if so, you're called 'DUMB MONEY' on WS
you must be the same moron who bought Nasdaq @ 5,100 in 1999.
fast forward 12 yrs to 2011.. Nasdaq = 2,300. -65%... great long term investment huh beach? :-*
WS professionals like NT depend on 'dumb money' (like yourself) to accumulate massive wealth. ;)
btw- enjoy the BLOODBATH ride DOWN!!! $$$ 8) $$$
-NT
-
Haha!! ;D ;D i see your afraid to post now. ;D ;D Hahaha!!!
fucking moron spick!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
::)
Racist, ignorant bastard.
-
Dow Down 2,000+ points since May 1st. Let the BLOODBATH continue! ;D
Tic toc... 'Dumb Money'
-
Dow Down 2,000+ points since May 1st. Let the BLOODBATH continue! ;D
Tic toc... 'Dumb Money'
BLOODBATH *bump*
-
Where's my Market Bitch loco?
I need coffee NOW bitch!
Do not make NT wait, loser! >:(
-NT
BTW- may the BLOODBATH continue. ;D
-
Haha!! ;D ;D i see your afraid to post now. ;D ;D Hahaha!!!
fucking moron spick!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
::)
Racist, bastardo ignorante.
-
Shut the fuuuck up RETARD and fetch my coffee!
DO IT NOW BIITCH! >:(
-
After you fetch my coffee BOY, I'll need my bed sheets hand washed! >:(
DO NOT make me wait! >:(
-NT
-
Haha!! ;D ;D i see your afraid to post now. ;D ;D Hahaha!!!
fucking moron spick!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
You are a racist, ignorant bastard and a plagiarist.
Current corporate insider selling/buying ratio: 7.74-to-1
-Prognosticator
Where did you get that ratio from?
Calculated it.
-Prognosticator
at least steal current stuff, asshole.
http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Bwahahahaha!
"In mid December, the last time I devoted a column to the insiders, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 7.07-to-1. Since then, unfortunately, the situation has not improved. For the week ending Jan. 21, for example, the comparable ratio was even more bearish at 7.74-to-1. For the latest reporting week, which ended this past Friday, the ratio was only marginally better at 5.45-to-1."http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Outed. lol . . . .
-
Shut the fuuuck up RETARD and fetch my coffee!
DO IT NOW BIITCH! >:(
-
Congrats to those who don't listen this racist, ignorant plagiarist! ;D
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
U.S. has 600,000 new millionaires
March 16, 2011: 1:37 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- What recession? The millionaire population jumped in the U.S. by 8% last year, fueled by the stock market recovery, according to an industry report on Wednesday.
The number of U.S. households worth at least $1 million rose to 8.4 million in 2010, compared to 7.8 million the prior year, according to a report by Spectrem Group.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/16/news/economy/millionaires/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
It will happen again, and again. Buy low, sell high, be confident when everybody else panics, be cautious when everybody else is confident. The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words! 8)
- El Profeta
-
Congrats to those who don't listen this racist, ignorant plagiarist! ;D
U.S. has 600,000 new millionaires
March 16, 2011: 1:37 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- What recession? The millionaire population jumped in the U.S. by 8% last year, fueled by the stock market recovery, according to an industry report on Wednesday.
The number of U.S. households worth at least $1 million rose to 8.4 million in 2010, compared to 7.8 million the prior year, according to a report by Spectrem Group.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/16/news/economy/millionaires/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
It will happen again, and again. Buy low, sell high, be confident when everybody else panics, be cautious when everybody else is confident. The stock market will fluctuate. Mark my words! 8)
- El Profeta
lol :)
-
predictable.. but another GREAT day on Wall Street. Dow DOWN 420 points!.
NT destroying amateurs wealth, day by day. 8)
Dow CRASHES 2,000+ POINTS since May 1st. Hahahaha!! ;D
-NT
Follow Retard loco to the Poor House!
Damn.....Dow is ONLY down -350 today! ;D
Nasdaq DOWN -67% since 1999
Dow DOWN -35% since 1999
non inflation adjusted! Hahaha ;D
-
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=180577.0;attach=427798;image)
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=180577.0;attach=427802;image)
Neurotoxin,
What's it like, posting on getbig from prison? :D
(http://l1.yimg.com/a/i/ww/news/2011/08/16/miami.jpg)
http://sports.yahoo.com/investigations/news?slug=cr-renegade_miami_booster_details_illicit_benefits_081611
(http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/tools/med/2011/08/ipt/1313263455.jpg)
(http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/tools/med/2011/08/ipt/1313371093.jpg)
(http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/tools/med/2011/08/ipt/1313229521.jpg)
(http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/tools/med/2011/08/ipt/1313237386.jpg)
(http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/tools/med/2011/08/ipt/1313263565.jpg)
-
Floyd "Money" Mayweather hanging with #1 "Money Maker", NT. 8)
-
Stocks plunge amid deeper fears about Europe
September 9, 2011: 4:15 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended sharply lower Friday, as bad news out of Europe kept piling up. The sell-off triggered the sixth weekly decline in seven weeks for the Dow and S&P 500.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/09/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?iid=Lead
Gbers can thank NT's Market Bitch loco for your losses! ;D
off to the Cayman Islands for the weekend.
wheels up! 8)
-NT
-
Haha!! ;D ;D i see your afraid to post now. ;D ;D Hahaha!!!
fucking moron spick!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
You are a racist, ignorant bastard and a plagiarist.
Current corporate insider selling/buying ratio: 7.74-to-1
-Prognosticator
Where did you get that ratio from?
Calculated it.
-Prognosticator
at least steal current stuff, asshole.
http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Bwahahahaha!
"In mid December, the last time I devoted a column to the insiders, this sell-to-buy ratio stood at 7.07-to-1. Since then, unfortunately, the situation has not improved. For the week ending Jan. 21, for example, the comparable ratio was even more bearish at 7.74-to-1. For the latest reporting week, which ended this past Friday, the ratio was only marginally better at 5.45-to-1."http://klseinvestment338899.blogspot.com/2011/02/those-bearish-insiders-commentary.html
Outed. lol . . . .
-
You are a racist, ignorant bastard and a plagiarist.
Did he PM that message to you? lol
-
Did he PM that message to you? lol
Yes, he did. He's a racist, bastardo ignorante.
-
Yes, he did. He's a racist, bastardo ignorante.
lol. What a loser. I'm a little jealous. I haven't gotten one of those in weeks. :D
-
Word of the Day:
LIQUIDITY: n. When you look at your investments and wet your pants. :'(
- NT
-
stooges, the gauntlet is set @ S&P _____
tic toc....
-NT
-
-
"GetBig: Wasteland of Mentally Inferior Stooges."
Now, now Mons...that's not very nice of you.
-
stooges, the gauntlet is set @ S&P _____
tic toc....
-NT
Stooges, Dow crashed ANOTHER -240 points today. :-*
S&P gauntlet is now set @ ____ when breached, you're soooo fuucked! ;D
PM loco for current market ranges. lol :D :D :D
-NT
-
the Gauntlet is set @ 1260.
if breached, prepare for a LONG painful sell off.
-NT
Stooges,
S&P is currently trading @ 1131. Dow down 1,300 points since above post. ;)
once we breach our next 'gauntlet' @ S&P ____ the real PAIN will follow.
PM stooge loco for specific 'gauntlet' number. lol :D :D :D
-NT
Fact: Neurotoxin is vastly superior to you all, and there is nothing you can do about it.
-
Word to the Unwise.....
The economy still is in total shambles.
Invest accordingly.
-
Haha!! ;D ;D i see your afraid to post now. ;D ;D Hahaha!!!
fucking moron spick!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
You are a racist, ignorant bastard and a plagiarist.
-
i anticipate a double dip recession.
-NT
“It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession Unavoidable
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/going-lot-worse-ecri-achuthan-says-recession-unavoidable-141929160.html
_________
Fact: Neurotoxin is vastly superior to you all, and there is nothing you can do about it.
-
Global Stock Markets Suffer Worst Quarter Since 2008 ;D
Friday September 30, 2011, 2:16 pm EDT
Stocks fell, dragging the MSCI All- Country World Index to its biggest quarterly loss since 2008, while the U.S. dollar strengthened as declines in Chinese manufacturing and German retail sales signaled global growth is slowing. Treasuries rose, and oil declined.
The MSCI All-Country World Index slid 1.6 percent at 2:13 p.m. New York time, extending its decline since June 30 to 17 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 1.3 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.2 percent. The dollar gained against 15 of 16 major peers, including a 1 percent advance versus the euro. Treasury 10-year notes snapped a five-day drop, extending their biggest quarterly advance since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008. Oil fell 1.6 percent.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Global-Stock-Markets-Suffer-bloomberg-4274193138.html?x=0
anticipate a Dollar rally with debt ceiling raised.
-NT
Fact: Neurotoxin is vastly superior to you all, and there is nothing you can do about it.
-
This thread has taken a huge nose dive.
-
This thread has taken a huge nose dive.
and who's to blame?
NEVER kiss a gift horse. ;)
-NT
Fact: Neurotoxin is vastly superior to you all, and there is nothing you can do about it.
-
"You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" ;)
-NT
-
Are we going to see the Dow go over 11,000 again or is this it?
-
Stooges,
Dow Crashed ANOTHER -258 points today! :D :D :D
Great day on Wall Street! (if positioned correctly) ;)
Let the Bloodbath continue! ;D
-NT
Fact: Neurotoxin is vastly superior to you all, and there is nothing you can do about it.
________________________ ________________________ ________________________ ________________________ __
Stocks tumble into the fourth-quarter
October 3, 2011: 4:32 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks just closed out the worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis, and the swoon is hardly over. With worries about Greece's solvency still in the spotlight, stocks kicked off the fourth quarter with a huge sell-off.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/03/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?iid=Lead
amateurs like retard loco should NEVER play with seasoned WS Professionals. ;)
-NT
Follow retard loco To The Poor House ;D
-
Market continues to hold support while waiting on election results. I anticipate a large selloff if Trump were to be victorious.
-NT
Stunning! Dow hits new high of 19,000 as Trump rally continues
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new record high Tuesday morning just above 19,000 as the stunning market rally since the election of Donald Trump continues on Wall Street."
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/22/investing/dow-trump-19000-stocks-alltime-highs/index.html
WINNING
(http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/161108095213-election2016-markets-up-trump-1024x576.jpg)
-
George w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
Our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
In the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. Mark my words.
Cash is king !
- NT
Made millions off this crash. (2007-2009)
-NT
-
Made millions off this crash. (2007-2009)
-NT
No, you didn't. However, anyone who ignored your advice did make a lot of money.
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
U.S. has 600,000 new millionaires
March 16, 2011: 1:37 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- What recession? The millionaire population jumped in the U.S. by 8% last year, fueled by the stock market recovery, according to an industry report on Wednesday.
The number of U.S. households worth at least $1 million rose to 8.4 million in 2010, compared to 7.8 million the prior year, according to a report by Spectrem Group.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/16/news/economy/millionaires/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
-
Move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
Preservation of capital is key. If you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
-NT
Enough said.
-NT
-
Enough said, right Chico?
-NT
-
Made millions off this crash. (2007-2009)
-NT
No, you didn't. However, anyone who ignored your advice did make a lot of money.
move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
preservation of capital is key. if you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
U.S. has 600,000 new millionaires
March 16, 2011: 1:37 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- What recession? The millionaire population jumped in the U.S. by 8% last year, fueled by the stock market recovery, according to an industry report on Wednesday.
The number of U.S. households worth at least $1 million rose to 8.4 million in 2010, compared to 7.8 million the prior year, according to a report by Spectrem Group.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/16/news/economy/millionaires/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=Sbin
-
Chico, everyone knows you have NO MONEY in the Market. Now back to your MOM's basement w/ your imaginary friends.
Interesting, Market is DOWN 400+ points right now.
Humm....
-NT
-
Chico, everyone knows you have NO MONEY in the Market. Now back to your MOM's basement w/ your imaginary friends.
Interesting, Market is DOWN 400+ points right now.
Humm....
-NT
(https://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/newscms/2015_16/976361/150414-lincoln-assassination-03_f7aecd33deb9ea657341ccd9976a77a8.jpg)
So? The market goes up, and the market comes down. What a discovery you've made.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (1900 - Present)
(http://d.stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/img/100-100.png)
^
|___ Great Depression (1930s)
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html
-
Chico, everyone knows you have NO MONEY in the Market. Now back to your MOM's basement w/ your imaginary friends.
Interesting, Market is DOWN 400+ points right now.
Humm....
-NT
How much do you have in the markets?
-
Chico, everyone knows you have NO MONEY in the Market. Now back to your MOM's basement w/ your imaginary friends.
Interesting, Market is DOWN 400+ points right now.
Humm....
-NT
You posted this, this morning with no clue as to why the market tanked. Do your research instead of just going by the numbers
-
You posted this, this morning with no clue as to why the market tanked. Do your research instead of just going by the numbers
Technical analyst w/ decades of experience. Trust me, I have a clue.
-NT
-
How much do you have in the markets?
A lot. Mostly on the "short" side now. Current Stock Market is extremely overpriced & overbought, with no Obama era "Quantitative Easing" to ARTIFICIALLY keep stocks propped up. Keep in mind, stocks advanced +260% from March 2009 low solely on QE stimulation. Now, for the first time in nearly a decade QE is gone w/rising interest rates simultaneously. The Obama/Fed Reserve gimmick is OVER.
Clinton had his gimmick: tech stocks/Crash
W had his gimmick: housing boom/Crash
Obama had his gimmick: QE/Crash?
-NT
-
Technical analyst w/ decades of experience. Trust me, I have a clue.
-NT
I didn't mean to come off so brash so I apologize. I meant that you posted this so early when the markets were not even open (I believe) that I assumed you couldn't have known why the markets were tanking. I first took notice around 11:30am West coast time just to see why this was happening. I'm by n means a stock expert but have a substantial (substantial for me) to sit up and take notice and saw it was mainly due to Italy's political uncertainty. Again, I'm not an expert but as long as the economy is going the way it's going and consumer confidence is still high, the markets will keep chugging along, I hate the volatility but I'm absolutely not worried about a crash. The markets are still up about 30% since the election.
-
2007 Market Crash thread.
Nailed it.
-NT
-
George w bush has systematically destroyed this country financially.
Our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies.
In the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.
Cash is king !
- NT
-
Move your money out of stocks and into cd's, cash, money markets ect.
Preservation of capital is key. If you do nothing, kiss your money goodbye.
-NT
2007, just prior to MARKET CRASH
-NT
-
Made millions off this crash. (2007-2009)
-NT
-
Ok guys here's the deal. As usual, it looks like the Christmas rally is beginning to get some legs despite consistently bad economic news. That's not unusual this time of year. (remember it's BONUS season) additionally, the Fed. is looking to bailout the financial institutions who created the largest housing bust since the Great Depression. The Fed is also looking to freeze interest rates on ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) to prevent a home foreclosure meltdown. since the financial sector ALWAYS leads the market..... this should create a level of euphoria to sustain a holiday rally. in addition, many on the street believe another interest CUT will occur at the Dec 11th Fed meeting.....which would add fuel to a rally.
After the holiday, there's NOTHING "looking forward" to propel the market past the 14k level and higher, so ALL bets are off the table. Infact, many of us expect a recession to rear it's ugly head in "08" w/ a corresponding market breakdown.
My Market comments just PRIOR to 2007 CRASH. ^^
Accurate ?
Coincidence?
Lucky?
Insider?
259,000 views on a LARP?
-NT
-
My Market comments just PRIOR to 2007 CRASH. ^^
Accurate ?
Coincidence?
Lucky?
Insider?
259,000 views on a LARP?
-NT
LOL...2016
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=644157.0;attach=767150;image)
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=620698.msg8619951#msg8619951
Accurate ?
Coincidence?
Lucky?
Insider?
-
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury/top-trump-official-calls-bankers-will-convene-plunge-protection-team-idUSKCN1OM0LJ
Eerily similar to 2007 CRASH.
-NT
-
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-treasury/top-trump-official-calls-bankers-will-convene-plunge-protection-team-idUSKCN1OM0LJ
Eerily similar to 2007 CRASH.
-NT
https://www.marketwatch.com/
-NT
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.
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.
(https://fw-d7-freedomworks-org.s3.amazonaws.com/field/image/1100.jpg)
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=644157.0;attach=767150;image)
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=620698.msg8619951#msg8619951
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=644157.0;attach=769000;image)
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=644157.msg9014728#msg9014728
Stocks swing to huge gains after jobs report, trade talks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/stocks-swing-to-huge-gains-after-jobs-report-trade-talks/2019/01/04/dda9fcf4-108b-11e9-8f0c-6f878a26288a_story.html?utm_term=.4abb35a9353e
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=644157.0;attach=769160;image)
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.
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-NT
Illegal Mexican Troll in 3....2....1.. 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼
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(https://fw-d7-freedomworks-org.s3.amazonaws.com/field/image/1100.jpg)
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=644157.0;attach=767150;image)
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=620698.msg8619951#msg8619951
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=644157.0;attach=769000;image)
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=644157.msg9014728#msg9014728
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=644157.0;attach=769160;image)
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Hahahahaaaaaaaa!!!
FJB !!!!!
-
Ok.
-
He comes out hard at the gate....
-
Been building cash, biding my time waiting for a big dump,
I wouldn't jump in yet.
Market hasn't bottomed.
The Fed wants to crush the bond and stock market to control inflation.
S&P 500 is still overvalued by another 20-25%.
The bottom should be around 3,000 for the S&P 500.
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
-
He comes out hard at the gate.... around men
-
I’ve been in cash all year. Not seeing anything to make me want jump in:
This trend has continued since March, a grinding bear:
So far, it’s a classic bear market with rallies getting launched from lower and lower levels:
-
Hahahahaaaaaaaa!!!
FJB !!!!!
Hyperinflation is here.
Fed unable to lower rates.
Market is dependent on low rates.
Fed is trapped.
-NT
-
Fed doing the right thing to curb inflation.
Feel the pain.
-
Hyperinflation is here.
Fed unable to lower rates.
Market is dependent on low rates.
Fed is trapped.
-NT
If tomorrow’s CPI # comes in hot, expect another leg down.
-NT
-
Can't imagine how much the markets will all be down tomorrow... -5% or so
way to go joe!!
-
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/markets-crash-inflation-rate-comes-hot-core-cpi-surges-6-6-highest-rate-since-1982-real-wages-declined-record-18-months/
Biden printed 40% of ALL dollars EVER printed in 18 months.
Hyperinflation is net result.
-NT
-
If tomorrow’s CPI # comes in hot, expect another leg down.
-NT
-
Hyperinflation is here.
Fed unable to lower rates.
Market is dependent on low rates.
Fed is trapped.
-NT
-
Inflation chart explains why your 401k is getting wiped out.
-
Mons Venus has been predicting a Dow Crash every year since 2007.
-
Mons Venus has been predicting a Dow Crash every year since 2007.
LOL :D
-
LOL :D
;D