Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[BayGBM]

FRE was up 18.84% today!

FNM was up 18.62%!

If you bought either or both this morning you are one happy camper. 

[seauantea]

bush has systematically destroyed this country financially and otherwise. our country is heading for a severe recession as a result of his failed policies. in the coming months, the stock market will come crashing down. mark my words.

cash is king !

If there is a crash, cash may not necessarily be king as inflation could well reak havock on purchasing power. There was an excellent documentary on google about the federal reserve which advocated investing in silver dollars in case of economic meltdown; in case you want to watch it:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7757684583209015812

[windsor88]

Do you have individual stocks Neurotoxin?  I was curious about what your thoughts are on the WiFi networks that will be built...but by who knows at this point.

Clearwire was in the running but has dipped.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CLWR

[Neurotoxin]

everyone keep in mind that floor traders at the NYSE make LARGE amounts of money with holiday bonuses. historically, 83% of the time traders move the market HIGHER during the "christmas rally". until proven otherwise, you should expect this to happen.


 

ok guys here's the deal. as usual, it looks like the Christmas rally is beginning to get some legs despite consistently bad economic news. that's not unusual this time of year. (remember it's BONUS season) additionally, the Fed. is looking to bailout the financial institutions who created the largest housing bust since the Great Depression. the Fed is also looking to freeze interest rates on ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) to prevent a home foreclosure meltdown. since the financial sector ALWAYS leads the market..... this should create a level of euphoria to sustain a holiday rally. in addition, many on the street believe another interest CUT will occur at the Dec 11th Fed meeting.....which would add fuel to a rally.

after the holiday, there's NOTHING "looking forward" to propel the market past the 14k level and higher, so ALL bets are off the table. infact, many of us expect a recession to rear it's ugly head in "08" w/ a corresponding market breakdown.





 



  

[Neurotoxin]

Clearwire was in the running but has dipped.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CLWR

CLWR peaked in July at 36.00, it's currently @ 15.57.

this relatively new stock has lost more than half it's value in 5 months. NOT a good sign.

[Neurotoxin]

FRE was up 18.84% today!

FNM was up 18.62%!

If you bought either or both this morning you are one happy camper. 

gbm, what your seeing in FRE and FNM is the "shorts" covering their positions due to the Fed. discussing a financial bailout......this causes an extreme upswing. remember, this is not new money coming into FRE FNM.......it's short players buying their positions back. the further a stock has dropped, the more violent the upswing when the shorts cover. i'm glad you timed the move correctly. I hope this makes sense.

both stocks were priced @ 70.00 a yr ago and had recently dropped below 30.00.

[windsor88]

CLWR peaked in July at 36.00, it's currently @ 15.57.

this relatively new stock has lost more than half it's value in 5 months. NOT a good sign.

I know but reality is that this WILL happen.  I just don't know when to jump in.  Any one of these WiFi company's could be bought out or have contracts with Microsoft,  Google, ATT, Sprint.  I need insider info.  What the fuck are we paying you for. 

[Neurotoxin]

I know but reality is that this WILL happen.  I just don't know when to jump in.  Any one of these WiFi company's could be bought out or have contracts with Microsoft,  Google, ATT, Sprint.  I need insider info.  What the fuck are we paying you for. 

#1) WiFi has MANY obstacles to overcome.

#2) look at WFWL it's a WiFi co. that traded @ 44.00 in 2005.....it now trades at 35 cents and ALL institutional investors are OUT.

#3) when WiFi finally overcomes its many problems......look to the Co's you mentioned including Cisco to lead the way.

#4) finally, until all the kinks are worked out in WiFi.....personally, i'd steer clear. 

 
 

[Neurotoxin]

ok guys here's the deal. as usual, it looks like the Christmas rally is beginning to get some legs despite consistently bad economic news. that's not unusual this time of year. (remember it's BONUS season) additionally, the Fed. is looking to bailout the financial institutions who created the largest housing bust since the Great Depression. the Fed is also looking to freeze interest rates on ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) to prevent a home foreclosure meltdown. since the financial sector ALWAYS leads the market..... this should create a level of euphoria to sustain a holiday rally. in addition, many on the street believe another interest CUT will occur at the Dec 11th Fed meeting.....which would add fuel to a rally.

after the holiday, there's NOTHING "looking forward" to propel the market past the 14k level and higher, so ALL bets are off the table. infact, many of us expect a recession to rear it's ugly head in "08" w/ a corresponding market breakdown.

of course.....this is all IMHO.  

 

guys, although i'm hoping for a holiday rally, keep in mind the current market undertone is still very negative. my LONG TERM outlook..... is still DOWN.

[youandme]

He should grab a DVD copy of 'Boiler Room' with Giovanni Ribisi & Vin Deisel.
Then read Robert Kiyosaki's book about the coming crash. Kiyosaki has been screaming about it for years to anyone who would listen.

Yes "Born to Steal", awesome book inside the chop shops.

Neuro tight thread bro

[windsor88]

#1) WiFi has MANY obstacles to overcome.

#2) look at WFWL it's a WiFi co. that traded @ 44.00 in 2005.....it now trades at 35 cents and ALL institutional investors are OUT.

#3) when WiFi finally overcomes its many problems......look to the Co's you mentioned including Cisco to lead the way.

#4) finally, until all the kinks are worked out in WiFi.....personally, i'd steer clear. 

I bought Cisco when it went to 30 a share about 6 years ago.  Thought no way it will plummet further.  Got down to 12 I think.  My timing sucks.  when it went to 22 I sold.  That took 2 years I think.  I was frustrated.  Technology is so essential to everyday life I don't see how Cisco, Lucent (which was another bust for me), and similar stocks can ever kill you.  But they do.

[youandme]

I have a question.

Although past performance is a flimsy indicator for future performance (stocks), what's your take on using statistic measures like z-scores, estimation, probability, etc.?

[Neurotoxin]

I bought Cisco when it went to 30 a share about 6 years ago.  Thought no way it will plummet further.  Got down to 12 I think.  My timing sucks.  when it went to 22 I sold.  That took 2 years I think.  I was frustrated.  Technology is so essential to everyday life I don't see how Cisco, Lucent (which was another bust for me), and similar stocks can ever kill you.  But they do.

windsor, the problem most stock investors experience is overlooking the OVERALL direction of the market prior to buying. your cisco buy at 30.00 was in a downtrending bear market. no matter how great your stock is, if the overall market direction is headed lower....so is your stock(s) . your timing could not have been worse.  

the reason i started this thread was to help guys like yourself better understand WHEN to get in the market and WHEN to exit safely. the coming recession (IMHO) will result in a 25-30% drop in stock prices. (historically, all prior recessions combined averaged a 28% decline in stock prices.) with that in mind, even the best stock(s)  in the "history of mankind" cannot fight the OVERALL market direction. conversely, bad/shit stocks will do well in strong BULL markets......as evidenced by the Dot-Com boom. cisco (considered a strong Co.) traded in the 84.00 range in 2000, only to fall to 9.00 following the Dot-Com bust.

all my statistical data leads to a recession beginning in 08......with a LARGE market correction to follow. i could be wrong. if so, my typed words will come back to haunt me.......... but i doubt it.


    

[youandme]

all my statistical data leads to a recession beginning in 08......with a LARGE market correction to follow. i could be wrong. if so, my typed words will come back to haunt me.......... but i doubt it.

Interesting,

"Statistics don't lie" Teddy Roosevelt

"The stock market is the only place where we come to a game state, it's real and when two people predict oposite forecast...someone is going to be wrong" To Leresa

I think to not agree with you in that soon (not in the future) this parabolic bubble is going to bust would be a bad "bet"


But would you say the old saying "it always bounces back" holds up in this instance? So many cards going against us in this one, not to mention the vast number of countries attacking our dollar on a daily basis.

i use them as much as i use psychic's.    those terms bring me back to my college statistic's courses ! 

So your telling me there is a chance 

[Neurotoxin]

But would you say the old saying "it always bounces back" holds up in this instance? So many cards going against us in this one, not to mention the vast number of countries attacking our dollar on a daily basis.

well.... considering the nasdaq in the yr 2000 was just over 5,000 what type of  "it always bounces back" would that be ? 8 yrs later and still nearly 50% below the 2000 levels. where's the bounce ?

the dow was near the 12k level in 2000 and fell to the 7,100 level. it has taken the dow 8 years to gain 1,000 overall points... to date. hardly mindbogglingly returns for any investor. with inflation added as well as the declining dollar........a 1000 point dow return over 8yrs is LOSING money.

most recessions last an average of 14-16 months with contracting stock markets. i usually watch dumb money take the ride DOWN.   

[BayGBM]

I have a question.

Although past performance is a flimsy indicator for future performance (stocks), what's your take on using statistic measures like z-scores, estimation, probability, etc.?

   You're kidding right? 

[gtbro1]

The major problem for USA is that the real estate market will continue to be colder than ice.

Here is the thing:

Currently a house will take 12 months to be sold. And that is if NO more new houses are built.

4 years ago, it was 2-3 months.

So different sectors experiences difficulties.

The big problem is that the taxes were lowered a few years ago, allowing the economy to overheat.

Lowering taxes with a huge national debt.

Instead of curbing the economic boom back then with taxes, and lowering the taxes now, when the economy is slowing down.

In essence: The Bush Administration has created a situation where there is no room for economic politics, to boost a slowing market.

Fiscally unresponsible.

    allow me to translate:

   Bush is an Idiot.

[youandme]

  You're kidding right? 

No I was not kidding, I got about a dozen emails on it, some book on Amazon.

[youandme]

well.... considering the nasdaq in the yr 2000 was just over 5,000 what type of  "it always bounces back" would that be ? 8 yrs later and still nearly 50% below the 2000 levels. where's the bounce ?

Ok thanks.

So as times goes on we see less return? Like for example the DJIA divisor decreasing and decreasing.

One more for tonite, what do you think about Dan Zanger's chart pattern?

[Neurotoxin]

So as times goes on we see less return? Like for example the DJIA divisor decreasing and decreasing.

One more for tonite, what do you think about Dan Zanger's chart pattern?

my point is... if you take ALL the rides DOWN in the market, it's difficult to make any money. when the dow dropped from 12k to 7k in 2000, if you took the ride down, it's impossible to make money. if you took the nasdaq ride DOWN from 5,000 in 2000, your still 50% away from break even 8 yrs later. it makes NO sense. smart money gets OUT and re-enters at or near the bottom, then rides it back up. average investors are taught to buy and hold and cost average down. do you believe ANY firm on WS uses that logic? but, it's what the masses are taught and consistently do. the market is a great place to make money....if you understand how it works.

my advice on GB is to help the average investor AVOID the big downturns. i'm not interested in getting too technical etc. just trying to keep it simple.....and save people their hard earned money. if not, WS will take it from you.   

dan zanger has very good information. 

[Neurotoxin]

my point is... if you take ALL the rides DOWN in the market, it's difficult to make any money. when the dow dropped from 12k to 7k in 2000, if you took the ride down, it's impossible to make money. if you took the nasdaq ride DOWN from 5,000 in 2000, your still 50% away from break even 8 yrs later. it makes NO sense. smart money gets OUT and re-enters at or near the bottom, then rides it back up. average investors are taught to buy and hold and cost average down. do you believe ANY firm on WS uses that logic? but, it's what the masses are taught and consistently do. the market is a great place to make money....if you understand how it works.

just so everybody understands......when i talk about exiting the market for safety, i only believe this makes sense for the average investor when a BIG DOWNTURN may occur. this thread is NOT about trading etc. this thread was started because my experience leads me to believe that a recession is on the horizon. with a recession comes a corresponding LARGE stock market correction. both recessionary and bubble (real estate) corrections many times take yrs to recover loses. (think dot-com bubble)

it makes no sense for the average guy to jump in and out of the market for the "normal ups and downs". if investors would AVOID the big corrections, their returns would increase significantly.


i hope this makes sense.
 

[Neurotoxin]

corp.earnings are the fuel that drive the stock market higher. because of the recession, (led by the housing collapse) earning have been much worse than expected. the Fed will try and push the market higher w/ another rate cut on dec 11. (killing the dollar further and increasing inflation) it will probably help for a brief period, then further down we go.


remember.....this is my OPINION.

 

[Neurotoxin]

also, it takes a full 8 months after any rate cut for it to have an effect on consumers and the economy. think about it....the first 1/4 point cut months ago hasn't kicked in yet.....so why would another dec. 11th ? it won't.......

 

[youandme]

hey did you hear Bush today? "We will see the economy slow down...uh..uh...might see a slow down, in the near future"

[Neurotoxin]

nov. is the best month of the yr for the stock market with historical gains of 1.7%............. -5% this past nov.