Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)  (Read 462173 times)

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #650 on: March 16, 2008, 02:51:37 PM »
XME is an ETF (a basket) of metals and mining stocks. that may be safer bet (if you're interested in that sector) and less volatile then buying just gold / silver/ plat.


buy low........sell high.




NT


Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #651 on: March 16, 2008, 04:58:55 PM »
gbers.........


March 16, 2008
Bear Stearns, facing collapse because of the mortgage crisis, agreed Sunday evening to be bought by JPMorgan Chase for a bargain-basement price of less than $250 million, the two companies announced.

The all-stock deal values Bear Stearns at about $2 a share, :o based on JPMorgan’s closing stock price on Friday, the companies said. In contrast, shares of Bear Stearns, which fell $27 on Friday, closed at $30.

A deal for Bear Stearns would end the independence of one of Wall Street’s most storied firms and help halt a sweeping panic that set in at the end of last week, causing Bear Stearns’s stock to swoon 47 percent on Friday.





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Straw Man

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #652 on: March 16, 2008, 08:49:17 PM »
gbers.........


March 16, 2008
Bear Stearns, facing collapse because of the mortgage crisis, agreed Sunday evening to be bought by JPMorgan Chase for a bargain-basement price of less than $250 million, the two companies announced.

The all-stock deal values Bear Stearns at about $2 a share, :o based on JPMorgan’s closing stock price on Friday, the companies said. In contrast, shares of Bear Stearns, which fell $27 on Friday, closed at $30.

A deal for Bear Stearns would end the independence of one of Wall Street’s most storied firms and help halt a sweeping panic that set in at the end of last week, causing Bear Stearns’s stock to swoon 47 percent on Friday.





NT


biggest haircut ever?

boonasty

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #653 on: March 16, 2008, 09:10:57 PM »

listen, here's the dilemma. although i expect gold/silver and other metals to probably head higher with big ben managing inflation and the falling dollar. i'm just personally against recommending anything at the highs.


alright man.  i do think metals are going much higher and this current isnt their high but we wont k=now until we wait and see.


a couple questions.  in reagard to bear stearns do you think lehman bros is next?


also, what is your take on the future of washington mutual? 

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #654 on: March 16, 2008, 10:31:09 PM »
gbers.........


March 16, 2008
Bear Stearns, facing collapse because of the mortgage crisis, agreed Sunday evening to be bought by JPMorgan Chase for a bargain-basement price of less than $250 million, the two companies announced.

The all-stock deal values Bear Stearns at about $2 a share, :o based on JPMorgan’s closing stock price on Friday, the companies said. In contrast, shares of Bear Stearns, which fell $27 on Friday, closed at $30.

A deal for Bear Stearns would end the independence of one of Wall Street’s most storied firms and help halt a sweeping panic that set in at the end of last week, causing Bear Stearns’s stock to swoon 47 percent on Friday.





NT




Is everyone ready for the market to tank tomorrow?  :D    Asia's already ahead of us on this one, down 4+% in Tokyo and Shanghai, and the dollar's taking a big suck.   I've got my short sales all picked out for the opening in NY.  ;D ;D
Ron: "I am lazy."

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #655 on: March 16, 2008, 10:38:37 PM »
Holly hell.  2.00 a share for bear stearns???    250 million is lunch money for those guys.  What is the fed gonna do now with all the debt it just assumed, and now is in the mortgage business???

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #656 on: March 16, 2008, 11:53:09 PM »
TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar plunged across the board on Monday as the spreading U.S. financial crisis led to JPMorgan Chase acquiring stricken investment bank Bear Stearns , stirring fears that more financial firms could become casualties.

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The Federal Reserve took more emergency measures to stem the fast-spreading financial crisis, cutting its discount rate on Sunday and opening up discount window lending to major investment banks, a tool not used since the Great Depression.

As the dollar slid 3 percent against the yen at one point to its lowest since 1995, investors became more convinced that the Fed and other major central banks may have to conduct coordinated dollar-buying intervention to stem the sell-off.

"The speed of the slide in the dollar/yen is so rapid that U.S. action alone can no longer stop the dollar's downward trend," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investment. "The time is ripe for coordinated intervention by U.S., European and Japanese authorities."

The dollar later trimmed some losses after Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga stepped up his verbal warnings on Monday, saying he is watching currency market moves in cooperation with authorities in the United States and Europe.

Investors have dumped the dollar on doubts about the Fed's ability to contain the deepening credit market turmoil, which has hobbled its efforts to help the economy by slashing rates and raised the threat of a protracted U.S. economic recession.

Traders said the dollar was suffering from an almost perfect storm of negative factors: a worsening financial crisis originating in the United States, unusually aggressive Fed rate cuts and investors diversifying away from the U.S. currency.

"Market players are afraid that there will be a second and third Bear Stearns out there," said Kosuke Hanao, head of forex sales at HSBC in Tokyo.

The dollar hit a record low versus the Swiss franc and struck a 13-year low beneath 96 yen on deteriorating confidence in U.S. assets from the crisis spawned by the defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages.

"The market is totally panicking," said a trader at a big Japanese bank. "The fact that the Fed had to announce its emergency steps on Sunday night highlighted the seriousness of the situation."

The dollar slide as far as 95.77 yen on trading platform EBS, down more than 3 percent on the day, before clawing back to 96.8 yen.

At its lows, the dollar was on track to for its biggest one-day drop against the yen in a decade. In less than three months this year, the dollar has already shed more than 13 percent against the Japanese currency.

The euro hit a fresh peak of $1.5905 on EBS but then retreated to $1.5850, up 0.8 percent.

The dollar dropped as low as 0.9572 Swiss francs, an all-time low, then rebounded to 0.9715, down 2.7 percent.

The concerns about the U.S. financial system prompted investors to shift their funds to safe-haven gold, boosting spot gold to a record peak above $1,030 per ounce.

Short-term U.S. Treasury yields fell to five-year lows as investors see a chance the Fed could slash overnight rates by up to 125 basis points by the end of its policy meeting on Tuesday.

A single cut of that size would mark one of the biggest in the modern history of the Fed.


The fears about the damage from the credit markets and plunging dollar hit shares, pushing down Tokyo's Nikkei stock average by nearly 4 percent to its lowest since August 2005.

DOLLAR INTERVENTION

Many market participants are now hoping U.S. authorities will eventually use public funds to help stabilise stumbling credit markets, believing that just slashing interest rates and injecting extra funds in the banking system cannot fix the problems.

As investors mulled the possibility of joint intervention, Nukaga and Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura said on Monday that they were worried about excessive exchange rate moves -- a stepping up of their rhetoric.

But investors still doubted that Japan would act alone to limit the yen's gains. Earlier Nukaga had said that Japan was not preparing to act against the yen's surge.

"Solo intervention by Japan seems difficult. But given this market turmoil, the U.S. and Europe could move and conduct coordinated intervention in the currency market," said a senior options trader at a Japanese bank in Tokyo.


Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #657 on: March 17, 2008, 03:35:59 AM »



a couple questions.  in reagard to bear stearns do you think lehman bros is next?


also, what is your take on the future of washington mutual? 

i believe Lehman is in a similar position to Bear.

at this point WM should be suspect like all the rest, at least til the smoke clears.






NT


 


 

loco

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #658 on: March 17, 2008, 07:07:16 AM »
What is your opinion on putting your cash into Gold?


here was my quote on metals:


"if you've been in metals the last yr or so, now would be the time to take some profits."



i never said sell your metals, i said to take some profits if you've been in them the last yr or so. could metals go higher from here ? sure they could, especially with the falling dollar and inflation worries. the time to have bought that sector was well over a yr ago.

jumping in at the all time highs always carries extra risk........not unlike the masses who jumped into the Dow at 14,000, while i was warning of a Dow crash.

buying any sector AT HISTORIC HIGHS is very un-warren buffett like.

keep in mind, the most successful long term traders on W.S. buy when the public is panicked, and sell when the public is euphoric.  ;)  


NT

Could this happen again in the US?

"In April 1933, Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 prohibiting citizens of the U.S. from owning other-than-token amounts of gold and from using gold as money. Citizens were forced to sell all gold holdings (apart from jewelry and "coins of special collector value") to the federal government at a price of $20.67 per ounce. In January 1934, Roosevelt raised the official price of gold to $35 per ounce, thereby devaluing the U.S. dollar by 41%."

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #659 on: March 17, 2008, 09:54:53 AM »
gbers........



Greenspan warns of worst crisis since World War II


Reuters Monday March 17, 2008
There will be many casualties from the unfolding financial market crisis, which will lead to a large-scale overhaul of international banking regulations, codes and risk management, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said.

Writing in the Financial Times, the former Fed chief said much of the financial system's risk-valuation models failed, not because they were too complex but because they were "too simple to capture the full array of variables governing that drive global economic reality".

"The crisis will leave many casualties. Particularly hard hit will be much of today's financial risk-valuation system," he wrote





greenspan started this crisis with bush, trying to avoid a recession caused by the Dot.com bubble.

they substituted the Dot.com bubble with an even BIGGER bubble. (housing)  ???





NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #660 on: March 17, 2008, 10:57:30 AM »
I swear to god some days this shit is so predictable it's like taking candy from a baby.  I went short LEH and C just after 11 and covered 20 minutes ago.  Not a bad day's effort! :D
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Swedish Viking

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #661 on: March 17, 2008, 12:54:34 PM »
Is there any chance of a complete crash tomorrow?

War-Horse

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #662 on: March 17, 2008, 01:55:41 PM »
Is there any chance of a complete crash tomorrow?


There will be a domino effect as the banks see that the fed will cover them.......of course that means the taxpayers will get the bill... >:(

China is getting pissed and some countries may switch from the dollar as value leaving us fvcked over.

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #663 on: March 17, 2008, 03:30:17 PM »

good trade goat !  ;)   


I actually came up with it before I checked getbig this morning... I was watching Lehman, Merill, and Citi waiting for the downturn, but for as much money as I made today, I'm happy to share the credit (if not the profits).  ;D ;D
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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #664 on: March 17, 2008, 06:59:03 PM »
Lewis, Barrow Hanley Lose Combined $2 Billion on Bear (Update2)

By Katherine Burton and Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam

 March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Joseph Lewis, the billionaire investor who bought 9.4 percent of Bear Stearns Cos. last year, lost $1.13 billion on his stake after the firm agreed to sell itself to JPMorgan Chase & Co. yesterday for $2 a share.

Lewis, the New York-based firm's second-largest holder, paid an average of about $107 apiece for 11 million shares, according to a filing submitted last year to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Bear's biggest investor at year-end was money manager Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss Inc., whose 9.7 percent holding has fallen by $958 million.

New York-based JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank, said yesterday it will pay about $240 million for Bear, which was crippled last week after clients pulled money and investors balked at trading with the firm because of losses on its subprime-mortgage holdings. Bear's market value was $13.6 billion at Nov. 30, the end of its fiscal year.

``This was done in the market's best interests,'' said David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights Inc., a financial- research firm in New York. ``Unfortunately Bear Stearns shareholders are at the short end of the stick and they only got this token payment.''

Bear Stearns stock closed at $4.81 today on New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It closed at $30 on Friday.

Lewis, a former currencies trader who was born in an apartment above a pub in London's East End, declined to comment through a spokesman. The loss is almost half his $2.5 billion fortune, as estimated by Forbes magazine in its 2007 survey.

Barrow Hanley president James Barrow didn't immediately return a call yesterday to the firm's Dallas headquarters.

Morgan Stanley Funds

Mutual funds run by investment bank Morgan Stanley were the third-largest Bear Stearns holder with a 5.4 percent stake and may have lost about $529 million since Dec. 31. Morgan Stanley said in a statement that its stake in Bear Stearns represented 0.10 percent of its mutual-fund assets as of Friday. It didn't disclose total fund assets.

James Cayne, Bear's former chief executive officer and fourth-largest holder with a 4.9 percent stake, saw the value of his holding drop by $487 million.

Bear's fifth-largest shareholder, Baltimore-based Legg Mason Capital Management, a unit of Legg Mason Inc. run by Bill Miller, may be down $477 million.

Messages left at the offices of Cayne and Miller weren't immediately returned.

To contact the reporters on this story: Katherine Burton in New York at kburton@bloomberg.net; Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam in Boston at sbhaktavatsa@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 17, 2008 18:38 EDT
R

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #665 on: March 17, 2008, 08:28:12 PM »
Writing in the Financial Times, the former Fed chief said much of the financial system's risk-valuation models failed, not because they were too complex but because they were "too simple to capture the full array of variables governing that drive global economic reality".



I just read this.  Is he serious??  Just how much complexity does he feel is required to figure out that lending into a housing bubble to people with zero equity, bad credit, and limited ability to pay is a bad idea?  ::)  I mean, sure, the CDO's these mortgages were folded into might have somewhat obscured the true risk,  but the lack of underwriting on the original mortgages ain't that complicated at all.   
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Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #666 on: March 18, 2008, 03:51:18 AM »
goat, the former fed chief helped create this current situation. now he spends his time giving speeches (in the 6 figure range) spinning his prior destructive policies and placing blame everywhere, except with the guy in the mirror.




NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #667 on: March 18, 2008, 05:19:45 AM »
gbers.......


goldman sachs reports today......expect the numbers to be fixed and positive. i expect a rally off this today.  ;)





NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #668 on: March 18, 2008, 06:22:36 AM »
gbers.......


goldman sachs reports today......expect the numbers to be fixed and positive. i expect a rally off this today.  ;)





NT


Okay, I don't have any brilliant ideas for today, I'll look at GS.  If I do a trade and make anything on it, you get the credit.  :D
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Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #669 on: March 18, 2008, 07:47:59 AM »
gbers.......


goldman sachs reports today......expect the numbers to be fixed and positive. i expect a rally off this today.  ;)





NT


gbers......


U.S. Stocks Gain on Goldman, Lehman Earnings.



March 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied the most in a week after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. posted earnings that beat estimates.  

Goldman, the largest securities firm, climbed the most in almost seven years.  ;)


NT

stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #670 on: March 18, 2008, 08:02:51 AM »

gbers......


U.S. Stocks Gain on Goldman, Lehman Earnings.



March 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied the most in a week after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. posted earnings that beat estimates.  

Goldman, the largest securities firm, climbed the most in almost seven years.  ;)


NT


How can you say the numbers are fixed?  That is a pretty big claim to make.  Is this common knowledge within your circle?

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #671 on: March 18, 2008, 09:05:45 AM »
How can you say the numbers are fixed?  That is a pretty big claim to make.  Is this common knowledge within your circle?




probably just a lucky guess.

btw, this morning's post will be my last regarding any particular stock.

going forward, i will only discuss my opinion on possible market direction.








NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #672 on: March 18, 2008, 10:25:38 AM »



probably just a lucky guess.

btw, this morning's post will be my last regarding any particular stock.


Oh, come on... feel free to share your insights.  You've been right most of the time.


BTW, I went with Lehman again instead of GS, and rode a 13.5 point gain up from mid-morning.  This volitility is teh awesome!  :D
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youandme

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #673 on: March 18, 2008, 10:55:46 AM »
How can you say the numbers are fixed?  That is a pretty big claim to make.  Is this common knowledge within your circle?
No surprise, all you have to do is look at the techs in the financial sector this stuff is being so manipulated it's making the 30's look like a totalitarian market.

stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k..........
« Reply #674 on: March 18, 2008, 11:42:10 AM »
No surprise, all you have to do is look at the techs in the financial sector this stuff is being so manipulated it's making the 30's look like a totalitarian market.

Not saying I disagree, just looking for something more than a claim.