Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[G o a t b o y]

does anyone remember how gas prices plunged $1.00 per gallon just before the midterms, then continued higher shortly thereafter ?

in case you're wondering........that was no coincidence. 

What did they do, short the hell out of oil futures contracts, or buy a large quantity and dump them all at once?

[Neurotoxin]

What did they do, short the hell out of oil futures contracts, or buy a large quantity and dump them all at once?

GS unloaded 75% of their positions. other firms followed GS, leading to a quick drop in fuel prices just prior to the election.

following the vote, they began repurchasing them.  (allegedly)

as the old saying goes: "there's a sucker born every minute" 
 



NT 

[G o a t b o y]

GS unloaded 75% of their positions. other firms followed GS, leading to a quick drop in fuel prices just prior to the election.

following the vote, they began repurchasing them.  (allegedly)

as the old saying goes: "there's a sucker born every minute" 
 



NT 

Most people haven't figured out yet that the oil price increases since 2003-04 have been primarily due to speculation in the futures market (and secondarily due to the falling dollar), not supply/demand.

[G o a t b o y]

Note to self: goatboy is not an MBA.

read and learn:

http://www.senate.gov/~levin/newsroom/release.cfm?id=257862

 

Although these high prices are often attributed to the forces of supply and demand, the report demonstrates that supplies have been more than adequate to meet demand. Since late 2004, the amount of stored oil in the United States has been increasing. Oil inventories recently reached 347 million barrels – an eight-year high and the largest U.S. inventory since 1998, when oil was $15 per barrel. Similarly, oil inventories in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries recently reached a 20-year high. As the report explains, the traditional factors of “supply and demand” do not tell the whole story on oil and gas prices.

What is new, according to the Levin-Coleman report, is that over the past few years market speculators have poured tens of billions of dollars into the energy commodity markets. For example, the International Monetary Fund reports that over the past three years approximately $100-$120 billion has been invested in energy markets worldwide. Over this same period about $60 billion has been invested in oil futures on the NYMEX.

Many analysts believe these speculative investments have significantly raised the price of oil futures. While it is not possible to determine the precise dollar increase in the price of oil attributable to market speculation, some analysts have estimated that speculation has added as much as $20-$25 to the price of each barrel of oil

[calmus]

read and learn:

http://www.senate.gov/~levin/newsroom/release.cfm?id=257862

 

 I am now quite curious as to what it is you do in Houston.

[G o a t b o y]

Bush's War / policies helped precipitate oil speculation and the dollar tanking.

i agree, supply/demand hasn't played a big role in the oil price equation......yet.

 

NT

Agreed on the "yet".

[Bindare_Dundat]

you experienced market manipulation today. GS (considered the PPT leader) is expected to do most of the heavy lifting to keep our market's from tanking. they served bush/administration well today. so much for free and open markets huh ? 

former GS CEO = Paulson

treasury sec. = Paulson

presidents working group on financial markets "kingpin" = Paulson

of course this is all speculation on my part. 

     

BTW......

Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown


Paulson re-activates secretive support team to prevent markets meltdown Judging by their body language, the US authorities believe the roaring bull market this autumn is just a suckers' rally before the inevitable storm hits.

Hank Paulson, the market-wise Treasury Secretary who built a $700m fortune at Goldman Sachs, is re-activating the 'plunge protection team' (PPT), a shadowy body with powers to support stock index, currency, and credit futures in a crash.

Otherwise known as the working group on financial markets, it was created by Ronald Reagan to prevent a repeat of the Wall Street meltdown in October 1987.



NT

I would love to know just how many manipulations of the market there are. I know I may be going off into a topic that isn't discussed much but I believe there is a ton of illegal, (CIA), money propping up the market as well as the manipulation by the PPT. Who knows how many other things are keeping the market afloat these days by illegal means? Sorry, had to throw in my 2 cent CT theory in there.  

[War-Horse]

Good stuff in here everyday.    Its not depressing when you know whats happening......Its depressing when you dont know whats happening....

[Neurotoxin]

gbers....


today officially begins the start of earnings season. alcola reports after the bell.

expect to see a lot of "earning's better than analysts expected". this ploy is typically used to keep a positive spin on equities when earning disappoint.

recent market action in the face of consistant negative economic news will have the shorts covering on any semi-positive earnings.




NT 

[stormshadow]

gbers....


today officially begins the start of earnings season. alcola reports after the bell.

expect to see a lot of "earning's better than analysts expected". this ploy is typically used to keep a positive spin on equities when earning disappoint.

recent market action in the face of consistant negative economic news will have the shorts covering on any semi-positive earnings.

NT 

Are the "analysts" just strawmen when used in this context of comparison?

[Neurotoxin]

Are the "analysts" just strawmen when used in this context of comparison?

i'd consider that a fair comparison.


NT

[G o a t b o y]

Interesting reading:

This crisis could bring the euro centre-stage
By Wolfgang Münchau

Published: March 23 2008 15:22 | Last updated: March 23 2008 15:22

We know the credit crisis is a clear and present threat to the global economy. But its most important long-run legacy may not be economic, but geopolitical.

I was reminded of that possibility when reading a recent analysis by Professors Menzie Chinn at the University of Wisconsin and Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard*. They ran a simulation showing that the euro would replace the dollar as the world’s largest reserve currency within the next 10 or 15 years. Their analysis is not based on this crisis. But the crisis could easily accelerate the trends they have identified.

Do not dismiss this research as some anti-dollar propaganda. Professors Chinn and Frankel started with the opposite notion – that the euro would not overtake the dollar for a long time. After all, the world does not change reserve currencies very often.

Sterling held pole position until the second world war, but lost it because of the UK’s imperial overreach. The US economy had already overtaken that of the UK in the 1870s. One of the factors that delayed the dollar’s rise was lack of a sophisticated financial sector, which did not develop until the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in 1913. Global reserve currency status is due to many factors such as the size of the economy, the country’s share in international trade and the depth of the financial markets. Inertia is another. If yours is a global reserve currency today, it is likely to be one tomorrow too. But this works only up to a point – a tipping point.

Professors Chinn and Frankel state two underlying reasons for the decline in the international role of the US dollar. The first is persistent current account deficits combined with a long-term decline in the dollar’s exchange rate – and perhaps imperial overreach, too. The second is the emergence of a genuine alternative to the dollar. Neither the yen nor the D-Mark had a realistic chance of replacing the greenback. But the euro is a real alternative. The eurozone economy is almost as large as that of the US and may surpass it as it continues to enlarge. London is the eurozone’s de facto financial centre, even though the UK itself has not adopted the euro. Also, the eurozone bond markets are now almost as deep and liquid as their US counterparts.

The projected speed at which the dollar will lose its predominant position as a global reserve currency obviously depends on your assumptions. The work of Professors Chinn and Frankel shows that this could happen shockingly fast. Some of those trends are accelerating right this minute. The reckless monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has speeded up the dollar’s decline and caused a rise in inflationary expectations. I would expect US inflation to pick up significantly once the present recession ends. Future inflation will weigh heavily on the global role of the US dollar.

An immediate consequence of high inflation is that many developing countries will find it harder to maintain their dollar pegs. They may be reluctant to drop them now but there will come a point when the rise in inflationary pressures becomes unbearable. If and when they drop their pegs, they will almost certainly rebalance their reserve portfolios as well.

Another factor that pushes in the same direction is the weakening of the US financial sector. This has been a crisis of Anglo-Saxon transaction-based capitalism. Not too long ago, it was considered to be vastly superior to the eurozone’s old-fashioned relationship finance. I doubt that in a few years’ time people will continue to assess the relative strengths of the Anglo-Saxon and continental European financial systems in quite the same way. I would also expect the eurozone economy to withstand the economic shocks of the credit crisis in relatively better shape.

Inertia means that the euro will not overtake the dollar any time soon. At present the euro only accounts for a little over a quarter of world reserves, against the dollar’s share of two-thirds. But to keep the euro down forever, you would need to rely on some rather far-fetched conspiracy theories. One such theory says that foreign central banks collude to hang on to dollars to protect the value of their holdings. It does not work that way. The network externalities that have favoured the dollar in the past could just as easily favour the euro in the future.

The potential geopolitical implications of such a projected shift are immense. For a start, the US will lose its exorbitant privilege – the ability to achieve permanently higher returns on foreign assets than the returns paid to foreigners who invest in the US. The dollar will suddenly cease to be “our currency, and your problem”. Influence in international financial institutions will wane. Losing the dollar as the world’s leading international currency not only leads to a loss of political power. It constitutes loss of power.

There is little politicians can do to prevent such a seismic shift. I suspect the US political establishment is not yet aware of what is going to hit it. Then again, the same can be said of European political leaders, who have not given us any hint yet that they are ready to deal with the responsibilities that come with running the world’s leading currency.

[Neurotoxin]

goat, speaking of the dollar......



Iran to OPEC: Stop oil sales in dollars
4/6/2008, Associated Press   

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is urging OPEC members to form a joint bank and stop pricing oil trades in U.S. dollars.

According to the Iranian government's Web site, Ahmadinejad told OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri the cartel "should establish a joint bank as well as having joint currency."

Oil is priced in U.S. dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation has concerned producers because it has contributed to rising crude prices and eroded the value of their dollar reserves.




NT

[G o a t b o y]

goat, speaking of the dollar......



Iran to OPEC: Stop oil sales in dollars
4/6/2008, Associated Press   

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is urging OPEC members to form a joint bank and stop pricing oil trades in U.S. dollars.

According to the Iranian government's Web site, Ahmadinejad told OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri the cartel "should establish a joint bank as well as having joint currency."

Oil is priced in U.S. dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation has concerned producers because it has contributed to rising crude prices and eroded the value of their dollar reserves.




NT

Ahmadinejad hasn't yet figured out that this is why we went into Iraq?  Or does he figure we're overextended and won't go any further.  If the Saudis stop backing us on the Dollar in OPEC, we're fuccked.

[War-Horse]

Ahmadinejad hasn't yet figured out that this is why we went into Iraq?  Or does he figure we're overextended and won't go any further.  If the Saudis stop backing us on the Dollar in OPEC, we're fuccked.

True. The saudis will still be all gay with bush.    All that hand holding, kissing and penis rubbing will go on.

But the other oil countries could make a big dent in dropping the dollar some more....south america, Iran, etc.     In fact china and russia could step up in other ways to get this going.

[Neurotoxin]

Alcoa Says Profit Falls 54% as Energy Costs Rise  



April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the world's third-largest aluminum company, said first-quarter profit tumbled 54 percent because of surging energy costs, a weaker U.S. dollar and lower metals prices.

Net income fell to $303 million, or 37 cents a share, from $662 million, or 75 cents, a year earlier, New York-based Alcoa said today in an e-mailed statement. Excluding some items, profit was 44 cents a share. The company was expected to earn 50 cents, the average estimate of 14 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Sales fell 6.7 percent to $7.38 billion.




gbers*....today earning's season opened w/ AA. their profit numbers were worse than expected (see above) AA is typically big stock market mover, so just prior to their numbers being released, GS UPGRADES AA and the aluminum sector. (see below) as i've stated on prior occasions, GS is used as a conduit for issuing upgrades and buying equities to hold up markets. ( this is a clear example )

btw, despite this clear intervention by the PPT, 12,700 is still my trading range top and should remain intact.




 April 7 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs raised its 2008 and 2009 aluminum price forecasts, citing supply constraints in several countries due to power shortages.

Goldman raised its price forecasts  to $1.31 per pound from $1.12 for 2008 and to $1.33 per pound from $1.21 for 2009.

It also raised its price targets on Alcoa Inc to $42 from $37




NT





 

[240 is Back]

Ahmadinejad hasn't yet figured out that this is why we went into Iraq?  Or does he figure we're overextended and won't go any further.  If the Saudis stop backing us on the Dollar in OPEC, we're fuccked.

If they pull that shit, pres mcCain will promptly bomb the shit out of them.

And all americans should back it 100%.

No fuccking around - this is our way of life.  IMO, oil/dollar terrorism is the worst kind, because unlike a single event, it crushes the economy of an entire country for a long time.  F Iran.  Seriously.

[G o a t b o y]

just prior to their numbers being released, GS UPGRADES AA and the aluminum sector. (see below) as i've stated on prior occasions, GS is used as a conduit for issuing upgrades and buying equities to hold up markets. ( this is a clear example ) 

Who pays attention to analyst ratings anyway?  If most analysts are calling a stock a "buy", that's a good time to sell.

[Bindare_Dundat]

If they pull that shit, pres mcCain will promptly bomb the shit out of them.

And all americans should back it 100%.

No fuccking around - this is our way of life.  IMO, oil/dollar terrorism is the worst kind, because unlike a single event, it crushes the economy of an entire country for a long time.  F Iran.  Seriously.

The population characteristics of Iran is much more different than Iraq. If America ever decided to do anything in Iran militarily, it would be a very poor move.

[Neurotoxin]

Who pays attention to analyst ratings anyway?  If most analysts are calling a stock a "buy", that's a good time to sell.

i agree. but this type of maneuver is designed to influence psychology and or momentum. 




NT

[War-Horse]

If they pull that shit, pres mcCain will promptly bomb the shit out of them.

And all americans should back it 100%.

No fuccking around - this is our way of life.  IMO, oil/dollar terrorism is the worst kind, because unlike a single event, it crushes the economy of an entire country for a long time.  F Iran.  Seriously.

Mccain couldnt fight his way out of a phone booth.    If he gets elected, beware cuz whoever his vice is...thats the new prez..     Also I think Iran will come on with a 100 times the force of Iraq.  Theyve had a huge amount of time to build hatred for us, and russia would back them in the long run.   Shit man, our troops would be fvcking overwhelmed with the swarm of death....Weve already proved we have to give the shiites money, and put them on the payroll to get a week of peace.  Then they turn on us till the next check roll around..

[240 is Back]

Mccain couldnt fight his way out of a phone booth.    If he gets elected, beware cuz whoever his vice is...thats the new prez..     Also I think Iran will come on with a 100 times the force of Iraq.  Theyve had a huge amount of time to build hatred for us, and russia would back them in the long run.   Shit man, our troops would be fvcking overwhelmed with the swarm of death....Weve already proved we have give the shiites money and put them on the payroll to get a week of peace.  Then they turn on till the next checks roll around..

we don't have to win.  we just have to discourage others from dropping the dollar.  You drop the dollar, we're gonna drop bombs.  period.  i dont wanna live in poverty here.

[War-Horse]

we don't have to win.  we just have to discourage others from dropping the dollar.  You drop the dollar, we're gonna drop bombs.  period.  i dont wanna live in poverty here.

Remember ive been saying that since you said we'd have security in oil.....The plan is to organize mexico and canada with us...this means we gonna be poor, poor, poor. in awhile.  i know youve already been thru the CT scares, but you may have pulled back a little to far, friend.
Its coming and there aint much anyones gonna do about it.  Say good bye to the dollar...

[youandme]

we don't have to win.  we just have to discourage others from dropping the dollar.  You drop the dollar, we're gonna drop bombs.  period.  i dont wanna live in poverty here.

yea buddy (ronnie coleman voice)

[Neurotoxin]

yes. the market is now in a trading range of 11,700 - 12,700. .

without positive earnings.....we probably sit in this range for some time.

NT