Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)

[Neurotoxin]

Also, is your plane insured by AIG?

no, its insured by AOPA.


NT

[Neurotoxin]

the PPT is doing everything in their power to keep this market from falling back to S&P 665. continued weak economic data may be ignored thru April. (Obama's people have finally figured out how to manipulate the market.) (IMO)

a test of the March low by summers end should be anticipated.



NT






 

[Benny B]

the PPT is doing everything in their power to keep this market from falling back to S&P 665. continued weak economic data may be ignored thru April. (Obama's people have finally figured out how to manipulate the market.) (IMO)

a test of the March low by summers end should be anticipated.



NT



 

The conventional wisdom is that we have already tested the market bottom, Neuro. A sometimes painful and awkward process of recovery is showing signs of being permanent.

[Bindare_Dundat]

The conventional wisdom is that we have already tested the market bottom, Neuro. A sometimes painful and awkward process of recovery is showing signs of being permanent.

I really don't know how you could say theres a sustainable recovery happening. Unemployment is at record highs. All the government numbers regarding manufacturing are always revised lower, durable goods always revised lower, mall owners going bankrupt, banks only profitable because of money being funneled to them through AIG, mortgage applications are 80% refinacing, car sales are at record lows, people have been saying we've tested bottom for longer than I can remember only to have the markets go back down, etc...

I just don't see where you get this optimism from at this point anyway.

[Benny B]

I really don't know how you could say theres a sustainable recovery happening. Unemployment is at record highs. All the government numbers regarding manufacturing are always revised lower, durable goods always revised lower, mall owners going bankrupt, banks only profitable because of money being funneled to them through AIG, mortgage applications are 80% refinacing, car sales are at record lows, people have been saying we've tested bottom for longer than I can remember only to have the markets go back down, etc...

I just don't see where you get this optimism from at this point anyway.

I'm talking market technicals my friend, not the gloom and doom you read in the paper/web each morning. Just sit back and learn. 

[Benny B]

The major equity indicies always begin their upswing prior to the most visible signs of a recession coming to an end.


Wall Street extends rally as economic hopes rise
Stocks rally as G-20 leaders meet, accounting rules ease, economic hopes rise

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street is extending its rally as it grows more optimistic that the economy is on the mend.

The major indexes jumped more than 2 percent Thursday, and the Dow Jones industrials rose more than 200 points, as the world's finance leaders met in London to discuss efforts to fix the global economy. The G-20 ministers plan to give the International Monetary Fund $500 billion, and create stricter rules for hedge funds.

Bank stocks got an especially big boost when the Financial Accounting Standards Board relaxed rules forcing banks to value their assets at current prices. The change should help banks reduce losses.

And the Commerce Department revealed a large increase in February factory orders, following Wednesday's better-than-expected readings on pending home sales, manufacturing activity and auto sales.

There's a growing sense on Wall Street that the economy, at least stateside, might be bottoming out.

"The market mindset is: OK, we're not in a tailspin," said Jack A. Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.

Since a nearly 12-year low on March 9, the Dow is up about 19 percent.

[Bindare_Dundat]

What reports are coming out tomarrow?

[Bindare_Dundat]

Banks get an accounting boost
Rulesmakers set to ease rules on fair value accounting just in time for this month's first-quarter profit reports.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Rules makers appeared ready to adopt guidelines Thursday that give financial firms more latitude in applying so-called mark-to-market accounting, just in time for what is shaping up as another tough earnings season.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private sector body that sets U.S. bookkeeping rules, was set to hold a formal vote Thursday to approve a measure that will allow firms to not write down the value of their assets based on so-called distressed sales of similar assets by other banks.



Isn't this all just smoke and mirrors?

[Soul Crusher]

Banks get an accounting boost
Rulesmakers set to ease rules on fair value accounting just in time for this month's first-quarter profit reports.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Rules makers appeared ready to adopt guidelines Thursday that give financial firms more latitude in applying so-called mark-to-market accounting, just in time for what is shaping up as another tough earnings season.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private sector body that sets U.S. bookkeeping rules, was set to hold a formal vote Thursday to approve a measure that will allow firms to not write down the value of their assets based on so-called distressed sales of similar assets by other banks.



Isn't this all just smoke and mirrors?

Its called "Mark to Market" and in a way it is because the companies will not have to mark down their assets immediately as was required under the present rules.

[Neurotoxin]

Banks get an accounting boost
Rulesmakers set to ease rules on fair value accounting just in time for this month's first-quarter profit reports.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Rules makers appeared ready to adopt guidelines Thursday that give financial firms more latitude in applying so-called mark-to-market accounting, just in time for what is shaping up as another tough earnings season.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board, the private sector body that sets U.S. bookkeeping rules, was set to hold a formal vote Thursday to approve a measure that will allow firms to not write down the value of their assets based on so-called distressed sales of similar assets by other banks.



Isn't this all just smoke and mirrors?

this allows financial institutions to better hide worthless toxic assets.


NT

[Neurotoxin]

The new rules give banks more judgment in deciding how to value assets when the market for those assets is not functioning. The move may boost banks' financial position because they have had to take heavy write-downs, or losses, by marking assets to market over the past year.

But some critics of the changes warn that any help to banks' balance sheets will be temporary and in reality prolong the slump.

"The capital markets will remain closed to major banks and other financial intermediaries for an extended period of time," the investor advisory organization CFA Institute said this week about the proposed changes to fair value accounting. "Investors will not be willing to commit capital to firms that hide the economic value of their assets and liabilities."



NT

[Soul Crusher]

The new rules give banks more judgment in deciding how to value assets when the market for those assets is not functioning. The move may boost banks' financial position because they have had to take heavy write-downs, or losses, by marking assets to market over the past year.

But some critics of the changes warn that any help to banks' balance sheets will be temporary and in reality prolong the slump.

"The capital markets will remain closed to major banks and other financial intermediaries for an extended period of time," the investor advisory organization CFA Institute said this week about the proposed changes to fair value accounting. "Investors will not be willing to commit capital to firms that hide the economic value of their assets and liabilities."



NT

I personally have held off buying a new home for a few years now based on this nonsense.  My personal belief is that homes have at least another 30% - 40% on the downside in order to come into the traditional 2x yearly income standard for average prices.

[Neurotoxin]

The conventional wisdom is that we have already tested the market bottom, Neuro. A sometimes painful and awkward process of recovery is showing signs of being permanent.

Yes, the conventional wisdom @ Dow 14,200 was Dow 15,000, 16,000,17,000....


I expect this market pull back over the summer, possibly testing the March lows then turn Bullish heading into 2010.

I could be wrong...


NT

[Neurotoxin]

Historically April is a strong month, so further movement to the upside is possible.....before failing over the summer.


NT

[Alex23]

before failing over the summer.
NT

Historically, the summers following the break out of the last couple of bear markets have been moving to the upside. Now if we're still full blown into a bear, then this stops making sense but I think we're coming out...

[Neurotoxin]

Historically, the summers following the break out of the last couple of bear markets have been moving to the upside. Now if we're still full blown into a bear, then this stops making sense but I think we're coming out...

keep a close eye on the banking index.



NT

[Neurotoxin]

bankruptcy and GM is still a strong possibility.



NT

 

NEW YORK/DETROIT April 7 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp is in "intense" and "earnest" preparations for a possible bankruptcy filing, a source familiar with the company's plans told Reuters Tuesday.

GM bondholders are likely to lose substantial value in bankruptcy.



NT  

[Alex23]

keep a close eye on the banking index.   
NT

fuck, I need to work on my written english... I type stupid fast and the result shows....

I appologize; I'm actually quite smart but sound better in person (click "spell check")

[Bindare_Dundat]

Source: Bank 'stress test' results delayed

Treasury will wait until after first-quarter earnings season to release results in order to soften impact on stocks.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The U.S. Treasury Department is planning to delay the release of any completed bank "stress test" results until after the first-quarter earnings season to avoid complicating stock market reaction, a source familiar with Treasury's discussions said Tuesday.

The Treasury is still talking about how results of the regulatory stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks will be released, and may disclose them as summary results that are not institution-specific, the source said.

The government is testing how the largest banks would fare under more adverse economic conditions than are expected in an attempt to assess the firms' capital needs. The tests are due to be completed by the end of April, but Treasury has said they may be finished before then.

The source, speaking anonymously because the Treasury has not made a final decision on what to disclose, said officials do not want any test results released before the earnings season wraps up for most U.S. banks on April 24.

[Soul Crusher]

Source: Bank 'stress test' results delayed

Treasury will wait until after first-quarter earnings season to release results in order to soften impact on stocks.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The U.S. Treasury Department is planning to delay the release of any completed bank "stress test" results until after the first-quarter earnings season to avoid complicating stock market reaction, a source familiar with Treasury's discussions said Tuesday.

The Treasury is still talking about how results of the regulatory stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks will be released, and may disclose them as summary results that are not institution-specific, the source said.

The government is testing how the largest banks would fare under more adverse economic conditions than are expected in an attempt to assess the firms' capital needs. The tests are due to be completed by the end of April, but Treasury has said they may be finished before then.

The source, speaking anonymously because the Treasury has not made a final decision on what to disclose, said officials do not want any test results released before the earnings season wraps up for most U.S. banks on April 24.

If the results were good, they would have released the info asap.

[Bindare_Dundat]

If the results were good, they would have released the info asap.

It's "complicated". 

[Neurotoxin]

the PPT's job/game (now) is holding S&P above 800. if we happen to breach 800 (not likely in April) check out my former posts for previous support levels.



NT

[Bindare_Dundat]

More info:

WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) -

Treasury did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

U.S. regulators have reached the closing phase of the stress tests, with many of the top banks having already turned in their internal versions of the test to officials. Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis said last Thursday that his bank has already completed its test.

Bank regulators are at the stage of reconciling their own versions of the results with the banks' internal  assessments.

Officials realize it may be hard to keep the results under wraps, and they are looking for ways the banks could disclose some details without unduly disturbing the markets. They are also looking at providing some summary information about how the banks fared.

"There will be definitely be some information that will be provided at the end of it, but exactly what that will be, and when it will be provided, will come forth later," Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, who supervises some of the nation's largest banks, said last week.

The stress tests at the biggest banks are part of a wide-ranging effort to restore stability to a sector hit by huge mortgage-related losses.

The tests are designed to determine the depth of banks' capital holes if conditions deteriorate further. After the tests are completed, the banks will have six months to either raise private capital to compensate, or accept government funds.

But officials are worried about how the market will react to the stress test results if there is not a clear recovery path for a bank that is deemed to have a large capital need.

The last thing Treasury wants to do is set off a panic, the source said.

[Bindare_Dundat]

So Wells comes out this morning and says they're going to make a "record" profit, claiming an expected 55 cents (.vs. mid 30s expectation)

It must be nice to be able to keep loans on the books at whatever price you feel like, receive billions of taxpayer money including "assistance" in rolling up Wachovia, and then turn out to not need it, right?

That is, if these numbers are accurate.

Wells premarket is ramping from $14.89 at the close yesterday and now trading premarket at $18.10, up over $3 or some 30%.

This leads one inescapably to the following:

Either Wells is lying (obfuscating losses through unrealistic marks, etc) OR
These "bailouts" were no such thing - they were a simple and transparent looting operation by the banks that is now showing up directly in "earnings" (and will shortly show up in the bonuses of executives too!) 
So which is it folks?

Are the banks really that healthy?  Because if they are, you've been robbed to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars per person in this country, and it is long past the time that you act to stop it.

If they aren't, then how is it that these banking executives are not residing in the graybar motel for cooking their books?  Again, it is long past the time that you, the citizens of this country, act to stop it.

And while we're at it, perhaps you'd like to tally up the income you're NOT making on savings (CDs, etc) through the much lower rates of interest you're being PAID so that these guys can post "record earnings"?  Naw, we don't want to hold The Fed accountable for their monetary policy - a backdoor way of looting the public even further - do we?

PS: AIG's former CEO Greenberg is on CNBC this morning and he actually used the word "LOOTING" and insisted that the government must claw back the payments that were made as a "passthrough" - exactly as I and others have called for.  

While I object to the characterization that Hank Greenberg was "blameless" in AIG's morass, it is nonetheless refreshing to hear people like him talking about what we should and indeed must do - that is, claw back the inappropriate and arguably illegal "pass through" payments that in my opinion are nothing more than pure robbery of the taxpayers of this country.

[Neurotoxin]

Historically April is a strong month, so further movement to the upside is possible.....before failing over the summer.


NT

as expected April was another strong month despite horrible economic news. the recent Bear Market rally (see my March 7th post) was accompanied by low volume and massive manipulation. (IMO)  a test of the March low should be expected over the next 2-3 months.





NT