Author Topic: Dow Crash Coming To Your 401K (2007 to 2022)  (Read 462220 times)

stormshadow

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2050 on: May 16, 2009, 07:19:59 PM »
guys, if you're debating whether to buy stocks now consider this: since mid April the NYSE's 500 largest corporate insiders have sold $8.32 worth of stock for every dollar bought.



NT


NT, where do you get information like that?

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2051 on: May 29, 2009, 11:40:39 AM »
guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")

if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.


simultaneously, the dollar is dropping like a rock, (Obama deficit spending) moving Hedge Funds and the like into commodities such as Oil and Metals. (yes, speculators are back in Oil....watch pump prices.) 



just my opinion.




NT






 

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2052 on: May 29, 2009, 11:49:25 AM »
guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")

if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.


simultaneously, the dollar is dropping like a rock, (Obama deficit spending) moving Hedge Funds and the like into commodities such as Oil and Metals. (yes, speculators are back in Oil....watch pump prices.) 



just my opinion.




NT


Thanks Neuro.  I read Bloomberg first thing every morning.  They have good reporting and there seems ZERO connection with the news and market lately.  It has been kind of strange.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2053 on: May 29, 2009, 12:06:00 PM »
Thanks Neuro.  I read Bloomberg first thing every morning.  They have good reporting and there seems ZERO connection with the news and market lately.  It has been kind of strange.


you're welcome 333386.



NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2054 on: May 29, 2009, 12:10:41 PM »
Neuro - check the story from bloomberg I just posted about bonds.


Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2055 on: May 29, 2009, 01:30:24 PM »
Neuro - check the story from bloomberg I just posted about bonds.



no one is talking inflation right now but looking forward it's a HUGE issue. (mining / metal equities ascent reflect that opinion)



NT

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2056 on: May 29, 2009, 06:03:24 PM »
Stagflation. I wonder how bad it's gonna get?

Will gold pass the $1030 mark of last year? It'll be interesting to see.

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2057 on: June 06, 2009, 05:48:35 AM »

guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")

if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.



just my opinion.



NT
 


Bank Profits From Accounting Rules Masking Looming Loan Losses


June 5    Big banks in the U.S. say they’re on the mend. The five largest were profitable in the first quarter, rebounding from record losses for the industry in the fourth quarter. Share prices have jumped, with the KBW Bank Index doubling since March 6.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, after “stress testing” 19 banks on their ability to withstand a worsening economy, declared in early May that Americans can be confident in the banks’ stability and resilience. Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were among banks raising $43 billion in new capital since then through share sales.

The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.

The government probably wants to win time for the banks, keeping them alive as they struggle to earn their way out of the mess, says economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University in New York. 

Bogus’ Profit

Citigroup’s $1.6 billion in first-quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent, says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida. “The big banks’ profits were totally bogus,” says Weiss, whose 38-year-old firm rates financial companies. “The new accounting rules, the stress tests: They’re all part of a major effort to put lipstick on a pig.”

Further deterioration of loans will eventually force banks to recognize losses that their bookkeeping lets them ignore for now, says David Sherman, an accounting professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago, says the government stress scenarios underestimate how bad the economy may get.




NT



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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2058 on: June 06, 2009, 07:50:21 AM »

Bank Profits From Accounting Rules Masking Looming Loan Losses


June 5    Big banks in the U.S. say they’re on the mend. The five largest were profitable in the first quarter, rebounding from record losses for the industry in the fourth quarter. Share prices have jumped, with the KBW Bank Index doubling since March 6.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, after “stress testing” 19 banks on their ability to withstand a worsening economy, declared in early May that Americans can be confident in the banks’ stability and resilience. Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were among banks raising $43 billion in new capital since then through share sales.

The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.

The government probably wants to win time for the banks, keeping them alive as they struggle to earn their way out of the mess, says economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University in New York. 

Bogus’ Profit

Citigroup’s $1.6 billion in first-quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent, says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida. “The big banks’ profits were totally bogus,” says Weiss, whose 38-year-old firm rates financial companies. “The new accounting rules, the stress tests: They’re all part of a major effort to put lipstick on a pig.”

Further deterioration of loans will eventually force banks to recognize losses that their bookkeeping lets them ignore for now, says David Sherman, an accounting professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago, says the government stress scenarios underestimate how bad the economy may get.




NT

Mark to market accounting definately is masking the losses in commercial RE right now. 

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2059 on: June 06, 2009, 10:54:17 AM »
http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=284194.msg4021398#msg4021398

Neuro, Do you get some of your information from this guy?


Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2060 on: June 08, 2009, 01:22:58 PM »
Mark to market accounting definately is masking the losses in commercial RE right now. 

"Mark to Market" is hiding a lot.  ;)



NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2061 on: June 08, 2009, 01:44:17 PM »

with the market extremely oversold, i anticipate a bear market rally in the very near future.


NT

the Bear Market rally that began on March 10th is completely controlled by the Fed/Banks. (on anemic volume)

from a purely technical perspective... as long as the S@P continues to hold the 200dma, "the Bulls control center court."



NT



Soul Crusher

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2062 on: June 08, 2009, 01:47:45 PM »
the Bear Market rally that began on March 10th is completely controlled by the Fed/Banks. (on anemic volume)

from a purely technical perspective... as long as the S@P continues to hold the 200dma, "the Bulls control center court."



NT




Are you saying it is the Fed propping up the market and not investors?

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2063 on: June 08, 2009, 02:11:15 PM »
Are you saying it is the Fed propping up the market and not investors?

yes. (imo)



NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2064 on: June 09, 2009, 11:57:41 AM »


guys let me TRY to explain what's happening w/ the Market from my vantage point. the recent Bank stress tests showed most Banks need additional funds (Billions) that Congress will not provide. with that said, a rosy picture was painted by the Fed to lure investors back into the Banks to help raise much needed capital. also, since the bailout, the Fed now controls the Banking sector, thus making it extremely easy to manipulate the overall Market.("he who owns the Banks controls the Market")

if you've noticed how little bad economic news effects the Market, now you know why.


simultaneously, the dollar is dropping like a rock, (Obama deficit spending) moving Hedge Funds and the like into commodities such as Oil and Metals. (yes, speculators are back in Oil....watch pump prices.) 



just my opinion.


NT




 

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2065 on: June 09, 2009, 01:18:46 PM »
Are you saying it is the Fed propping up the market and not investors?


let me explain why. 70% of our nations GDP is Consumer Spending. if the consumer see's the Market heading lower w/ his 401k, he pulls back MORE on spending. currently we're experiencing the highest consumer savings rate not seen in decades. from -1% to +5.7 %. (Gov. needs us spending... not saving.)

so, it is my opinion that certain banks assist the Fed in "propping" the Market to help avoid disaster. BTW, that's not always a bad thing.



NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2066 on: June 09, 2009, 01:22:22 PM »

let me explain why. 70% of our nations GDP is Consumer Spending. if the consumer see's the Market heading lower w/ his 401k, he pulls back MORE on spending. currently we're experiencing the highest consumer savings rate not seen in decades. from -1% to +5.7 %. (Gov. needs us spending... not saving.)

so, it is my opinion that certain banks assist the Fed in "propping" the Market to help avoid disaster. BTW, that's not always a bad thing.



NT

For me personally, I dont see it as a bad thing that people are saving money and not engaging in reckless consumer spending funded by credit cards. borrowing

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2067 on: June 09, 2009, 01:43:07 PM »
For me personally, I dont see it as a bad thing that people are saving money and not engaging in reckless consumer spending funded by credit cards. borrowing

i agree 100%. problem is a huge Gov. NEEDS revenue....and that comes from consumer spending, not saving. have you EVER heard a Gov. official advise the public to save more? not likely.



NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2068 on: June 09, 2009, 01:45:54 PM »
i agree 100%. problem is a huge Gov. NEEDS revenue....and that comes from consumer spending, not saving. have you EVER heard a Gov. official advise the public to save more? not likely.



NT

Its sad really that they prefer the bubble economy fueled by reckless personal borrowing on assets with phoney valuations.   

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2069 on: June 10, 2009, 12:06:03 PM »
i expect a downside test to S&P 915


NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2070 on: June 11, 2009, 03:57:27 AM »

Its sad really that they prefer the bubble economy fueled by reckless personal borrowing on assets with phoney valuations. 
 

333386, check out the article below. it comprehensively addresses why the US is now a bubble economy.


NT


The seeds of today’s crisis were first sown in 1971 when the US formally opened trade with China. In an effort to boost profits, large scale US manufacturers and other multinational firms began outsourcing their manufacturing jobs to the People’s Republic soon after.

When other industries realized the kind of money that can be saved by sending work overseas, they soon followed suit. Outsourcing moved up the corporate food chain until even R&D jobs and other high-level, high-skill set jobs were shifted to Asia. This, of course, diminished the number of these positions in the US. Thus began three major trends:

1) The US’s economic shift from manufacturing to services (mainly financial)

2) The massive drop in US incomes

3) The beginning of the debt bubble

Nothing illustrates the first point like the rise of the financials sector. From 1970 until 2003, financials’ market capitalizations as a percentage of the S&P 500 rose from less than 5% to 22%. Over the same period, financials’ earnings as a percentage of the S&P 500’s total earnings rose from less than 10% to 31%.

Put another way, by 2007 one in every three dollars of corporate profits came from the financial sector. Meanwhile, China was experiencing an unprecedented level of growth thanks to our renewed trade: Chinese per-capita income doubled from 1978 to 1987 and again from 1987 to 1996.

Now, fewer jobs in the US means lower US incomes. Going by the Federal government’s official (inaccurate) data, weekly US incomes peaked in October 1972 and have since fallen 15%. Of course, these numbers are based on official inflation data which is horribly under-stated. According to John Williams of www.shadowstats.com, if you were to go by actual inflationary data, US incomes have fallen more like 40% since 1972.

This fact stares us in the face everyday, though no one really notices it. In the early ‘70s, typically one parent worked and the other stayed home. Today, BOTH parents work and most Americans are barely getting by.

The reason why we didn’t notice the drop in quality of life before was because of one thing:

Credit.

Credit cards had been in use since the ‘50s, but they had yet to catch on, largely because banks couldn’t make obscene profits from them (the interest rates they could charge were limited on a state-by-state basis).

Then, in 1978, the Supreme Court passed a law stating that banks could charge their cardholders any rate allowed in the bank's home state. With this ruling, credit cards suddenly had the potential to become a major profit center for banks. Large banks immediately shifted their credit card operations to states where there were no limits on interest rates (Delaware and South Dakota).

Credit creates the illusion of wealth (or in the US’s case for the last 30 years, the illusion of maintaining the same standard of living) because you’re able to spend more than you make or spend money without paying upfront. Americans, earning less and facing rising costs of living, gradually began their descent into indebtedness: between 1980 and 1990, credit card spending average household credit card balances quadrupled.

In this manner, the average American didn’t notice that his or her quality of life was deteriorating at a rate of about 2-3% a year. Similarly, he or she didn’t notice that more and more jobs (of greater and greater technical expertise) were shifting overseas.

And thus began the epic shift in American wealth to Wall Street (the rise in the financial industry) and China (the producer of cheap goods we had to buy due to the drop in incomes).


Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2071 on: June 15, 2009, 12:06:28 PM »

i expect a downside test to S&P 915


NT

Neurotoxin

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2072 on: June 15, 2009, 12:16:07 PM »
guys, keep a close eye on natural gas (UNG)  (*not a recommendation*)

 

NT

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Re: Dow crash coming to your 401k (**Strictly Moderated--SEE FIRST POST**)
« Reply #2073 on: June 15, 2009, 12:23:12 PM »
You rule.

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