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Getbig Misc Discussion Boards => Sports Discussion Boards => Topic started by: CalvinH on November 12, 2009, 08:43:58 AM
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I might actually stay awake for the whole game :o
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whoever wins will do so by a last second field goal.
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Toss up. But here is how it looks position by position:
QB - Tie
Wr's - Pats
Rb - Slight advantage Pats....Maroney has been running like a beast, and Addai has been terrible
O-line - Colts
TE - Colts
DLine - Colts....Freeney and Mathis are holding that D together. However, Pats have a new rookie LT that is a manchild, made Porter look like a kid last week. Should be cool to see Freeney try to get around his 6'8, 310 frame.
Lb's - Pats by a mile. Mayo and Guyton are among the leagues best young lb's and the colts have some injuries there
CB's - Pats
Safety - Pats by a mile
Pats - 27
Colts - 24
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Colts by a field goal. I think the homefield advantage for the Colts will be the difference.
Either way it's close and I can't wait to watch it! Lot of Fantasy players playing in that game. I have Brady, Welker, Reggie Wayne, the Patriots' polish kicker, and Watson playing in that game.
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Colts by a field goal. I think the homefield advantage for the Colts will be the difference.
Either way it's close and I can't wait to watch it! Lot of Fantasy players playing in that game. I have Brady, Welker, Reggie Wayne, the Patriots' polish kicker, and Watson playing in that game.
It will be close. I think the pats have a huge advantage in the secondary, but the colts have the obvious advantage on the Dline. Keep an eye on the second round pick that stepped in for Matt Light. He's 6'8, 310. He made Porter and the pass rusher from the Falcons his bitch. If this kid can keep Freeney quit, that might be the difference.
Keep in mind this kid is almost 7 feet tall:
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It will be close. I think the pats have a huge advantage in the secondary, but the colts have the obvious advantage on the Dline. Keep an eye on the second round pick that stepped in for Matt Light. He's 6'8, 310. He made Porter and the pass rusher from the Falcons his bitch. If this kid can keep Freeney quit, that might be the difference.
Keep in mind this kid is almost 7 feet tall:
If Mathis and Freeney can pressure Brady effectively and force some INT's or incompletions , then the Colts should pull it out. But Welker is tough to stop on bubble screens and dump offs on underneath crossing routes. If that causes the Colts' saftey's to play up and force their CB's one on one with Moss, it's lights out for their secondary.
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If Mathis and Freeney can pressure Brady effectively and force some INT's or incompletions , then the Colts should pull it out. But Welker is tough to stop on bubble screens and dump offs on underneath crossing routes. If that causes the Colts' saftey's to play up and force their CB's one on one with Moss, it's lights out for their secondary.
Don't forget Kevin Faulk + Maroney on draw plays out of the shotgun if the colts decide to pin their ears back. Pats problem will be getting pressure on Manning.
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Speaking of the Pats.....They are easily the hardest team to beat on Madden 2010. Every play on offense is out of the shotgun and the computer AI just picks my defense apart in Cover 2 or 3.
Fuckers.....
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I agree with Body...but there always seems to be some bizarre calls in that Dome...so we'll see. We've got to generate a pass rush from somewhere with the front four or three. I'd like to see Chung bury Manning like he did Henne, last week.
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Pats 28
Colts 24
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I agree with Body...but there always seems to be some bizarre calls in that Dome...so we'll see. We've got to generate a pass rush from somewhere with the front four or three. I'd like to see Chung bury Manning like he did Henne, last week.
Same thing can be expected at the razor.
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Can't wait for this game.
Hands down the two best teams of the decade and two of the greatest QB's to ever play the game. When it's all said and done they will be 1a and 1b as the greatest ever.
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Yup..................... .No doubt..................
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the colts have not had a better decade than the steelers and the pats will win this game
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the colts have not had a better decade than the steelers and the pats will win this game
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I agree on both counts.
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the colts have not had a better decade than the steelers and the pats will win this game
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Due to the sb wins?
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Due to the sb wins?
I think that and that Pitts is like 10-4 in playoffs, where Indy is 7-7. Indy's regular season record is great, but we all know when GREAT teams are made. But we still have this season to go. If Indy wins the SB this year, it's a great argument.
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Due to the sb wins?
yeah and more playoff wins
why would you disagree with that?
a typical indy year is having a great regular season, then being one and done in the playoffs
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yeah and more playoff wins
why would you disagree with that?
a typical indy year is having a great regular season, then being one and done in the playoffs
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I don't. I forgot about Pitt.
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I don't. I forgot about Pitt.
WHAT???
HOW DO YOU FORGET ABOUT THE 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME CHAMPIONS OF THE WOOOOORRRRRRLLLLLLLDDDDD
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I don't. I forgot about Pitt.
brutal honesty. haha
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WHAT???
HOW DO YOU FORGET ABOUT THE 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME 6 TIME CHAMPIONS OF THE WOOOOORRRRRRLLLLLLLDDDDD
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I don't know. I was busy?
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brutal honesty. haha
Yes. I forgot about Minn the other day, too. Monster alzheimer's.
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Yes. I forgot about Minn the other day, too. Monster alzheimer's.
Yeah body.....WTF?
Stop smoking so much weed, dude......
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i dont think this game will be close, IND has struggled against SF and HOU and they have too many injuries on D. NE by 10 or more
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Yeah body.....WTF?
Stop smoking so much weed, dude......
I smoked weed not to long ago. I was not a fan of it.
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I smoked weed not to long ago. I was not a fan of it.
Sorry to hear that.....you probably smoked some snikklefritz......
Come to B-more sometime for a better herbal experience. Invitation open anytime, bro.....
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Sorry to hear that.....you probably smoked some snikklefritz......
Come to B-more sometime for a better herbal experience. Invitation open anytime, bro.....
Deal, but I prefer having 5 or 6 crown and 7's. Weed is just not my style!
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Here we go! Pats by 3. This will be their toughest game of the year!
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7-0 ;)
7-7 ;) This game will be back and forth and come down to one or two plays.
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Holy shit!!!! Long bomb - Brady to Moss. 17-7, expect the Colts to storm back. This is going to be a dogfight!
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briliant no call on that push off.
Your true colors are starting to show. What you posted in the Begals thread proves this, also. You want to talk football fine, if youre hanging around to be a bfury clone gtfo. This isn't a pissing match.
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and youre still the same tight-ass.
im voicing my opinion of the play.
get a grip grandpa
Oh please, everything is bullshit, or crap if it doesent go the way you think it should. Discredit this, crooked refs that... oh brother.
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i commented on the play.
there was a clear pushoff. You can disagree if you want.
youre acting like i hurled an insult at you.
Calm yourself.
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i commented on the play.
there was a clear pushoff. You can disagree if you want.
youre acting like i hurled an insult at you.
Calm yourself.
I'm totally calm. There was no pushoff, imo. Anyway, Pats ball on the 40 after the Manning sack. Brady is shredding the secondary. Looks like they might score again.
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i agree, the pats have the colts on their heels.
seems like IND is playing conservative
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i agree, the pats have the colts on their heels.
seems like IND is playing conservative
I think the colts will come back. It was 24-7 in 2007 and we all know how that went.
Also, I think the Colts are playing as they always play, the Pats just have a lot more speed on D, now.
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Bad move by Bodden. Clear pi there by him.
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High scoring game so far. Love it for fantasy reasons......
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It will be close. I think the pats have a huge advantage in the secondary, but the colts have the obvious advantage on the Dline. Keep an eye on the second round pick that stepped in for Matt Light. He's 6'8, 310. He made Porter and the pass rusher from the Falcons his bitch. If this kid can keep Freeney quit, that might be the difference.
Keep in mind this kid is almost 7 feet tall:
Vollmer is containing Freeney quite well so far.....
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Vollmer is containing Freeney quite well so far.....
Agreed, he is the key. I think this draft was a gem.
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Agreed, he is the key. I think this draft was a gem.
diamond in the rough....barely spoke English until recently...probably why he was overlooked. His combine numbers were impressive.
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if im not mistaken he was projected to be a 3rd-4th round pick
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Big time fumble by Marouney at the goal line.........That's a score that can put the game away and Marouney coughed it up.....
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Big time fumble by Marouney at the goal line.........That's a score that can put the game away and Marouney coughed it up.....
Agreed, but the colts just had a four and out and Welker ran one back to the 10. I can't hate on maroney....as Collinsworth said, there have been zero rb fumbles up until this game. All is not lost....yet.
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Pats score! 31-14. D needs to keep playing well.
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Pats score! 31-14. D needs to keep playing well.
Brady to Moss is money......
Moss will no doubt be a top performer well into his mid 30's. His size and hands in the red zone you can't coach. He might make a serious run at Jerry Rice's record before it's all said and done.
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Colts score. Pats playing crappy, no effort D, because they are up big. Can't do that vs this team. They must score here or they are in trouble. Wtf.
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I dont want to hear anyone saying the colts didnt get calls in this game. It's all even....that pi call was garbage.
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What is Belichik smoking on that fourth down call??? Kick the ball away on rely on your defense....!
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What is Belichik smoking on that fourth down call???
Agreed. That was the dumbest thing I've ever seen him do. That just cost them the game. A rare mistake, to bad it's going to make them lose. Colts will score on this drive. This loss is on Belichick. He played way to conservative when they pats were up huge.
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Bill Belichick, I love you, you're one of the greatest ever, but you cost the Patriots this game Outrageously bad. What In the FUCK was he thinking?
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Belichik is a 3 time superbowl winner...the answer as to why he made that decision is simple.....he's an arrogant dick....
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Belichik is a 3 time superbowl winner...the answer as to why he made that decision is simple.....he's an arrogant dick....
I don't agree with that at all. I think he made a huge mistake. If it had been converted he'd be a hero. Calling him an arrogant dick is a little extreme, imo. Calling the timeout earlier was dumb, too.
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You're right, this is a sports board, and in the rules, it clearly states that if you are here to TROLL or your purpose is to act like a moron, you will be banned. This is not Getbig as you know it, this is not the main board, this is a place for mature adults to talk sports. I created this board, and the intention was to keep mindless flame artists like you and BFury out. Talking a little smack is fine, but after looking at your posts, 90% of them are inflammatory and annoying. If you don't like it leave.
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I don't agree with that at all. I think he made a huge mistake. If it had been converted he'd be a hero.
Agreed... He knew if he converted the down and moved the chains that the colts would not get the ball back with enough time to do anything. It was a risky gamble that unfortunately didn't pay off.
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Agreed... He knew if he converted the down and moved the chains that the colts would not get the ball back with enough time to do anything. It was a risky gamble that unfortunately didn't pay off.
That's how I see it, also. Obviously he made a huge mistake and it was a dumb move in hindsight, but to say he did it because he is an arrogant dick is a bit over the top imo.
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He's either playing to win or playing not to lose. The latter happened.
You play the %'s at that stage of the game and rely on your defense to close out the game. That decision he made either reeks of arrogance or it's an obvious lack of confidence in his own defense.
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what the fuck happened? i turned the game off when the pats were winning 31 - 14
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He's either playing to win or playing not to lose. The latter happened.
You play the %'s at that stage of the game and rely on your defense to close out the game. That decision he made either reeks of arrogance or it's an obvious lack of confidence in his own defense.
Or a confidence in your conversation rate on fourth down this far. Still a stupid move. But let's be honest....Faulk was an inch or two away from the 1st down.
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what the fuck happened? i turned the game off when the pats were winning 31 - 14
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Brutal game management, lol.
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Or a confidence in your conversation rate on fourth down this far. Still a stupid move. But let's be honest....Faulk was an inch or two away from the 1st down.
I guess......still looks like a dick move. His own defensive players have to be second-guessing that decision. That can be a call that changes an entire season for the Patriots.
Not to be taken lightly......
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I guess......still looks like a dick move. His own defensive players have to be second-guessing that decision. That can be a call that changes an entire season for the Patriots.
Not to be taken likely......
It was a bad call for sure...but they are still 6-3, and clearly capable of beating the leagues best teams. It's not even close to over. I don't disagree with you that Belichick made a huge mistake, but I don't think it was motivated by arrogance. I think he had a rare brain fart. Anyone who watched that game saw that the Pats are capable of making a run...the colts just came out on top tonight. Congrats to them.
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Brutal game management, lol.
bump for that
Im so glad i watched the entire game I was saying the whole time just wait the colts are still within striking distance and booom...the 4th down call was horse hockey though who does that shit?
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bump for that
Im so glad i watched the entire game I was saying the whole time just wait the colts are still within striking distance and booom...the 4th down call was horse hockey though who does that shit?
Belichick goes for it on 4th all the time, but tonight was a bad move. Stupid.
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Belichick goes for it on 4th all the time, but tonight was a bad move. Stupid.
agreed you dont give manning the ball on the 30 and expect him not to score a touchdown.
I was totally expecting them to line up and try and draw them offsides...LOL when they snapped the ball I was like "OH SHIT THEIR GOING FOR IT" hahaha
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agreed you dont give manning the ball on the 30 and expect him not to score a touchdown.
I was totally expecting them to line up and try and draw them offsides...LOL when they snapped the ball I was like "OH SHIT THEIR GOING FOR IT" hahaha
Me too, haha. What a crappy night for a Pats fan, lol. Oh well, on to next week and the hated Jets.
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agreed you dont give manning the ball on the 30 and expect him not to score a touchdown
That's it in a nut shell.
Where the field position was, you just don't go for it.
Had they beed on the 50 I'd even get it... another 20 yards can seem like a mile, but to give Peyton a scant 30 yards to score... You had to expect him to put it in the end zone.
This is arguably the best quarterback in the game today... Definitely without a doubt one of the top 3.
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Bill Belichick, I love you, you're one of the greatest ever, but you cost the Patriots this game Outrageously bad. What In the FUCK was he thinking?
Worst coaching decision I've seen in ages. Arrogant bastard got what he deserved. I feel bad for Brady (who was amazing), but I am pleased with the colts winning. this game showed that manning is the best in the game though, despite his mistakes. Manning gets'r done w/much less talent too.
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I cant stop having this thought from a non fan, pure football theory standpoint: God, what the FUCK was bellichek thinking? Its the colts! you don't give peyton manning a short field. The colts wouldn't have given the pats a short field. stupid coaching.
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Worst coaching decision I've seen in ages. Arrogant bastard got what he deserved. I feel bad for Brady (who was amazing), but I am pleased with the colts winning. this game showed that manning is the best in the game though, despite his mistakes. Manning gets'r done w/much less talent too.
Brady has had far less offensive talent around him for much longer than Manning....and he's been more successful (3 sb's to manning's 1 and a far superior playoff record with players you never heard of on O). manning started of with Edge, Wayne, Stokley, Clark and Harrison. Brady had no names like Branch, Givens Gaffney and Antoin Smith. Manning couldn't "get r done" with some of the best talent ever, for the longest time. If Manning wins a SB this year, you're statement might make a little more sense, but up until this point, Manning has failed more than he has succeeded with a GREAT offensive cast. Manning has always had awesome weapons all over the place. In 2007 when Brady got some top notch wr's (Moss and Welker) he had the best season of any qb ever, and he does not play in a dome. He plays in the northeast elements, which is much tougher than a dome. Both guys are awesome QB's, but to claim Manning is better due to getting it done with less talent is ludicrous. Brady had a better night than Manning tonight. Let's not act like the games best offensive line, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne are nothing special.
I'm not dissing Manning he is one of the greatest ever.
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brady has had an elite defense on the other side of the ball, for years
manning never had that.
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brady has had an elite defense on the other side of the ball, for years
manning never had that.
That's not what we are talking about. We are talking about winning games with subpar offensive talent. The Patriots had a great defence for two of the three of their sb wins, but it was not the top defense in the NFL, and any advantage the Pats had due to those defences was negated by the huge advantage the colts had on offense. Atwoine Smith, Graham, Givens, Branch and Johnson vs Wayne, Harrison, Clark, Edge (during his best years) and Stokley....lol. The Colts playoff record speaks for itself it's .500
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you said manning has failed more than he has succeeded
i say its easy to succeed when your defense can force the opponent punt the ball every series
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you said manning has failed more than he has succeeded
i say its easy to succeed when your defense can force the opponent punt the ball every series
Really, so is Manning's defense the reason he won a sb, because the year he finally won one, he played awful (as usual) and the Colts had the top defense in the playoffs that year....and they bailed him out over and over. Remember the Balt game which they won on fg's, only? Btw, The pats had a poor defense in 2001(with 23 free agents) and top 10 D in 2003 and 2004...lets not exaggerate and make them out to be more than they were. You act as if it was a D filled with HOF players. It was very good, but it wasn't crazy good. The Bottom line is that Manning has always had pro bowl offensive weapons to work with, and he's lost a lot more than he's won when it counted most. As shown tonight, the better D does not always win.
Manning is a GREAT qb and one of the best ever. The original statement was that Manning gets it done with less talent. That is false, infact, historically, he's gotten it done less with more talent. That's all I was saying.
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so it comes down to this: Colts weapons on offense/ Pats defense.
You can talk about freeney and the colts pass rush but you can also make a case for brady's offensive line. Theres no denying how important those aspects were.
at the end of the day, an offensive genius like bill with a few no names and a disciplined,smash mouth defense SHOULD see more success than the former.
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Brady has had far less offensive talent around him for much longer than Manning....and he's been more successful (3 sb's to manning's 1 and a far superior playoff record with players you never heard of on O). manning started of with Edge, Wayne, Stokley, Clark and Harrison. Brady had no names like Branch, Givens Gaffney and Antoin Smith. Manning couldn't "get r done" with some of the best talent ever, for the longest time. If Manning wins a SB this year, you're statement might make a little more sense, but up until this point, Manning has failed more than he has succeeded with a GREAT offensive cast. Manning has always had awesome weapons all over the place. In 2007 when Brady got some top notch wr's (Moss and Welker) he had the best season of any qb ever, and he does not play in a dome. He plays in the northeast elements, which is much tougher than a dome. Both guys are awesome QB's, but to claim Manning is better due to getting it done with less talent is ludicrous. Brady had a better night than Manning tonight. Let's not act like the games best offensive line, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne are nothing special.
I'm not dissing Manning he is one of the greatest ever.
i was only talking about tonight. the pats are the more talented team right now, and they never should've lost the game. and any time you bring up brady's no name guys, you have to take into account the massive cheating that was aiding those teams. not brady's fault, but it was blatantly going on and affecting the outcome.
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Really, so is Manning's defense the reason he won a sb, because the year he finally won one, he played awful (as usual) and the Colts had the top defense in the playoffs that year....and they bailed him out over and over. Remember the Balt game which they won on fg's, only? Btw, The pats had a poor defense in 2001(with 23 free agents) and top 10 D in 2003 and 2004...lets not exaggerate and make them out to be more than they were. You act as if it was a D filled with HOF players. It was very good, but it wasn't crazy good. The Bottom line is that Manning has always had pro bowl offensive weapons to work with, and he's lost a lot more than he's won when it counted most. As shown tonight, the better D does not always win.
Manning is a GREAT qb and one of the best ever. The original statement was that Manning gets it done with less talent. That is false, infact, historically, he's gotten it done less with more talent. That's all I was saying.
The truth though is that defense wins championships... That's just the reality of it.
If the Colts had had great D all of those years, then New England would be just another also there team, but because they had great D, they brought home 3 superbowls.
That's just the way it is.
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Good game. Pats are a much better team than I thought. I daresay they're a legitimate threat to anyone in the AFC.
Though that call fucked the Pats, the colts secondary dropped two easy pick 6's in the last five minutes. They were really squatting on the short out routes at the end.
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Good game. Pats are a much better team than I thought. I daresay they're a legitimate threat to anyone in the AFC.
Though that call fucked the Pats, the colts secondary dropped two easy pick 6's in the last five minutes. They were really squatting on the short out routes at the end.
Which is neggated by several Patriots missplays and two horrendous calls on the Pats. The Pats left at least 10 points on the field. I'm not the type of guy to blame the refs, because it all evens out (the Pats got some calls too), and that's that. The colts were the better team last night and that's the bottom line....however, the Patriots can run with anyone in the NFL and it ain't over yet. This might be the motivational tool to inspore them for the rest of the season.
While what Belichick can be defended by percentages and strategy, I still don't agree with the call. I was shocked to see guys like Merril Hodge, Marshall Faulk and Deion Sanders defend the call. Harrison and Bruschi did not, and I agree with them, make them go 70 yards. Manning had thrown two ints and anything could happen.
If Belichick had a timeout he could have challenged the play, but he didn't so tough shit. For a 1st down, the ball is downed when it is controlled, and by this video it looks like the ball was controlled well behind the first down line. It is what it is, the Pats lost to a better team and Belichick made a mistake.
To be fair, it should be noted that this same call won them the Atlants game. When it works you're a god, when it fails you get ripped. That's the way it should be.
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I can't believe people are defending the call. It's Peyton Manning. He's the last guy I would want to risk giving a 30 yard field with 2 minutes left on the clock. I understand Bill B's aggressive philosophy but sometimes you've got to make the right move. Anything less than 70 yards is asking for trouble with Peyton.
Good game regardless. Those are definitely the two best teams in the AFC.
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Which is neggated by several Patriots missplays and two horrendous calls on the Pats. The Pats left at least 10 points on the field. I'm not the type of guy to blame the refs, because it all evens out (the Pats got some calls too), and that's that. The colts were the better team last night and that's the bottom line....however, the Patriots can run with anyone in the NFL and it ain't over yet. This might be the motivational tool to inspore them for the rest of the season.
While what Belichick can be defended by percentages and strategy, I still don't agree with the call. I was shocked to see guys like Merril Hodge, Marshall Faulk and Deion Sanders defend the call. Harrison and Bruschi did not, and I agree with them, make them go 70 yards. Manning had thrown two ints and anything could happen.
If Belichick had a timeout he could have challenged the play, but he didn't so tough shit. For a 1st down, the ball is downed when it is controlled, and by this video it looks like the ball was controlled well behind the first down line. It is what it is, the Pats lost to a better team and Belichick made a mistake.
To be fair, it should be noted that this same call won them the Atlants game. When it works you're a god, when it fails you get ripped. That's the way it should be.
We=in twilight zone
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I can't believe people are defending the call. It's Peyton Manning. He's the last guy I would want to risk giving a 30 yard field with 2 minutes left on the clock. I understand Bill B's aggressive philosophy but sometimes you've got to make the right move. Anything less than 70 yards is asking for trouble with Peyton.
Good game regardless. Those are definitely the two best teams in the AFC.
Agreed, make him go 70 yards and have the chance to create an int or a sack. I understand the logic, but big mistake by Belichick.
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Agreed
:o
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I think it's an odd call that he made, but like someone said earlier- you make the call and you get the 1st, you're a God. You end up short, you're ostracized.
The way I look at this, and some hippies would agree with me, is it's Karma! Remember the Bills getting the kickoff in one of the first couple of games, and the Bills returner fumbled because he made a dumb decision and the Patriots came back to win? Well, now things have equaled out, and the Pats have negated/canceled out that earlier win that really shouldn't have occurred.
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I think it's an odd call that he made, but like someone said earlier- you make the call and you get the 1st, you're a God. You end up short, you're ostracized.
The way I look at this, and some hippies would agree with me, is it's Karma! Remember the Bills getting the kickoff in one of the first couple of games, and the Bills returner fumbled because he made a dumb decision and the Patriots came back to win? Well, now things have equaled out, and the Pats have negated/canceled out that earlier win that really shouldn't have occurred.
That was me...and I wasn't going to keep this thread going until I saw this gem ;) First, I don't agree with the call that belichick made, but there is plenty of statistical evidence to show why he did what he did.
Fourth-and-2 conversions are successful 60% of the time.
The Pats' win probability on the fourth-down gamble was 0.79
The Pats' win probability by punting would have been 0.70
Assuming that the Colts would have started a drive at their own 34, teams have a 30% chance of scoring. But given the Colts' dynamic offense, their chances of scoring likely would have been higher. And that would have decreased the 0.70 win probability.
Number-crunchers: Bill Belichick's 4th-down gamble was the right call - The Huddle: Football News from the NFL - USATODAY.com
On top of what I just posted, the Patriots won the Atlanta game by going for it on fourth and short, deep in their own territory. Do I agree with what belichick did? No. Even if the pats had won....I would have said it was the wrong call.
Your point about the Bills and Karma is over the top, imo. Infact, it can be argued that the Patriots did get the first down and a bad spot did them in (which is fine, that's life and the better team won that night). Mckelvin coming out of the endzone has absolutely nothing to do with this play or the Patriot's season. The Bills are a crappy football team this year and nothing is going to change that.
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That was me...and I wasn't going to keep this thread going until I saw this gem. First, I don't agree with the call that belichick made, but there is plenty of statistical evidence to show why he did what he did.
Fourth-and-2 conversions are successful 60% of the time.
The Pats' win probability on the fourth-down gamble was 0.79
The Pats' win probability by punting would have been 0.70
Assuming that the Colts would have started a drive at their own 34, teams have a 30% chance of scoring. But given the Colts' dynamic offense, their chances of scoring likely would have been higher. And that would have decreased the 0.70 win probability.
Number-crunchers: Bill Belichick's 4th-down gamble was the right call - The Huddle: Football News from the NFL - USATODAY.com
On top of what I just posted, the Patriots won the Atlanta game by going for it on fourth and short deep intheir own territory. Do I agree with what belichick did? No. Even if the pats had won, I would have said it was the wrong call.
Your point about the Bills and Karma is over the top, imo. Infact, it can be argued that the Patriots did get the first down and a bad spot did them in (which is fine, that's life and the better team won that night). Mckelvin coming out of the endzone has absolutely nothing to do with this play or the Patriots season. The Bills are a crappy football team this year and nothing is going to change that.
Maybe Karma was not the best way to explain it, giving it a different connotation than what I meant?
While I agree with your stance on the numbers game, and why Bellichick made the call he did, I think you're correct in that even if the Patriots won, they should not have done what they did. But I disagree with going strictly by numbers, because as this scenario shows, too many factors can change the outcome of the play. The referee's made a poor call, and that changed the outcome.
As for what I talked about with the Bills, there's an entire thread regarding that one decision where it got pretty heated. Many people feel, obstinately so, that they're right- no matter the call. One guy feels that the returned made the right decision to run the ball out. Another feels he should have downed the ball for a touchback. Yet down the middle-where my decision is- are the people that feel it was OK to run the ball back even though not the safe play, but stupid to reach out for an extra yard and not protect the ball.
The Bills suck, surely. I wasn't comparing Mckelvin directly to the above play- but I was just merely attempting to point out that one highly disputed mistake (Bellichick's decision to go for it versus McKevlin decision to reach out for another yard...both resulting in their team losing the game; directly or not) made later on negates the dissension of another.
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Maybe Karma was not the best way to explain it, giving it a different connotation than what I meant?
While I agree with your stance on the numbers game, and why Bellichick made the call he did, I think you're correct in that even if the Patriots won, they should not have done what they did. But I disagree with going strictly by numbers, because as this scenario shows, too many factors can change the outcome of the play. The referee's made a poor call, and that changed the outcome.
As for what I talked about with the Bills, there's an entire thread regarding that one decision where it got pretty heated. Many people feel, obstinately so, that they're right- no matter the call. One guy feels that the returned made the right decision to run the ball out. Another feels he should have downed the ball for a touchback. Yet down the middle-where my decision is- are the people that feel it was OK to run the ball back even though not the safe play, but stupid to reach out for an extra yard and not protect the ball.
The Bills suck, surely. I wasn't comparing Mckelvin directly to the above play- but I was just merely attempting to point out that one highly disputed mistake (Bellichick's decision to go for it versus McKevlin decision to reach out for another yard...both resulting in their team losing the game; directly or not) made later on negates the dissension of another.
I don't disagree with your opinion that belichick made the wrong move - (regardless of what the numbers say). I was one of those guys who was a stanch defender of McKelvin, so we'll have to agree to disagree on that one. Thanks for the insightful post, it was a good one.
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I dont disagree with the call...but the play on 3rd down should have been a run...and on 4th down...game over
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Body, the pats have now lost their last two big games (SB vs giants, and last sunday vs colts), do you, as a knowledgeable fan, see anything different intensity related or otherwise that has changed? it used to be they pulled out every close game, but suddenly they're vulnerable (obviously brady getting hurt last year was out of everyone's control... but he seems back to normal if not better than ever). I have no great love or hate from the pats, but it always intrigues me how quickly things can change in sports, especially football.
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Body, the pats have now lost their last two big games (SB vs giants, and last sunday vs colts), do you, as a knowledgeable fan, see anything different intensity related or otherwise that has changed? it used to be they pulled out every close game, but suddenly they're vulnerable (obviously brady getting hurt last year was out of everyone's control... but he seems back to normal if not better than ever). I have no great love or hate from the pats, but it always intrigues me how quickly things can change in sports, especially football.
I don't see any change in their intensity. They are a young team on the defensive side of the ball. They are still learning how to finish games. The Pats have lost one big game recently, the 2007 superbowl. Losing a mid season game by one point to a 8-0 team (that takes your record to 6-3) is hardly reason for concern, imo. The Patriots are consistently competing for a championship; you can't win it every year in today's NFL. Sunday's loss came down to a spot by a ref, and keep in mind that the Patriots have rebuilt their entire defense over the last 2 years while continuing to win and have remained a top team in the NFL. Lastly, let's give Peyton Manning some credit, the guy is an amazing QB. Both him and Brady went off during that game. It came down to a spot and it went the Colt's way this time. They deserved to win. As i said it's 1a + 1b when ranking Manning and Brady. Brady got the best of Manning for many years and now it's Manning's turn. Brady will get the best of him for a run and so on.
I'd put my money on the Patriots if they played again.
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it used to be they pulled out every close game, but suddenly they're vulnerable (obviously brady getting hurt last year was out of everyone's control... but he seems back to normal if not better than ever). I have no great love or hate from the pats, but it always intrigues me how quickly things can change in sports, especially football.
I would also attribute the change as the other team (s) learning how to beat them. Not so much the Pats having a changing of tides, but that could be some of it, but not a major part.
The other teams are making slow progress on how to hold the Pats within reach of their own abilities to catch up to them.
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I would also attribute the change as the other team (s) learning how to beat them. Not so much the Pats having a changing of tides, but that could be some of it, but not a major part.
The other teams are making slow progress on how to hold the Pats within reach of their own abilities to catch up to them.
This is true.
Lets be honest here, the Pats went 16-0 in 2007, 11-5 last year without Brady and so far are 6-3 this year. It's not like they fell off and turned into a losing team. If you expect them to win a sb every year, then yes, they've taken a step back...however, those expectations are unfair and ridiculous, imo.