Author Topic: Investing and personal finance  (Read 185586 times)

sync pulse

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #400 on: January 10, 2022, 03:21:13 PM »
Even so...use a real bank.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #401 on: February 02, 2022, 03:51:51 AM »


FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #402 on: March 26, 2022, 07:40:39 AM »

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #403 on: June 20, 2022, 02:00:28 PM »
Stocks Historically Don’t Bottom Out Until the Fed Eases

https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-historically-dont-bottom-out-until-the-fed-eases-11655594823?siteid=yhoof2

Another week of whipsaw stock trading has many investors wondering how much farther markets will fall.

If history is any guide, the selloff might still be in its early stages.

Investors have often blamed the Federal Reserve for market routs. It turns out the Fed has often had a hand in market turnarounds, too. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has sold off at least 15% on 17 occasions, according to research from Vickie Chang, a global markets strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. On 11 of those 17 occasions, the stock market managed to bottom out only around the time the Fed shifted toward loosening monetary policy again.

Getting to that point may be painful. The S&P 500 has fallen 23% in 2022, marking its worst start to a year since 1932. The index declined 5.8% last week, its biggest decline since the pandemic-fueled selloff of March 2020.

And the Fed has only just gotten started. After approving its largest interest-rate increase since 1994 on Wednesday, the central bank signaled that it intends to raise rates several more times this year so it can tamp down inflation.

Tightening monetary policy, combined with inflation running at a four-decade high, has many investors fearful that the economy might go into a downturn. Data on retail sales, consumer sentiment, home construction and factory activity have all shown significant weakening in recent weeks. And while corporate earnings are strong now, analysts expect they will come under pressure in the second half of the year. A total of 417 S&P 500 companies mentioned inflation on their earnings calls for the first quarter, the highest number going back to 2010, according to

In the coming week, investors will be parsing data including existing-home sales, consumer sentiment and new-home sales to gauge the economy’s trajectory. U.S. markets are closed Monday in observance of Juneteenth.

“I don’t think the rate of the decline in the market will continue at this pace, but the idea that we’re approaching the bottom—that’s really hard to come up with,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US.

Mr. Donabedian said he has discouraged clients from trying to “buy the dip,” or to buy shares on discount with the expectation that the market will turn around soon. Even after a punishing selloff, stocks still don’t look cheap, he said. And earnings forecasts still look too optimistic about the future, he added.


The Dow and the S&P 500 index had their worst 100 days to start a year in more than 50 years. And the Nasdaq had its worst start to a year in the history of the index. But if history is a guide, the selling may have only just begun. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains.

Other investors say they are staying wary of the possibility that the Fed might have to act even more aggressively, should policy makers be surprised by another unexpectedly high inflation reading. The University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey, released earlier in the month, showed that households expect inflation to run at a 3.3% pace five years from now, up from 3% in May. That marked the first increase since January. Separately, the Labor Department’s consumer-price index rose 8.6% in May from the same month a year ago, the fastest increase since 1981.

“Our feeling is that if the next inflation figure is very high again, the Fed could [raise rates] even more sharply,” said Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Syz Bank, in emailed comments. That could put further pressure on risky assets such as stocks, he added.

When the Fed began raising interest rates again this year, it said it was hoping to pull off a soft landing, a scenario in which it slows the economy enough to rein in inflation but not so much that it triggers a recession.

What further steps do you think the Fed will take to address inflation? Join the conversation below.

Within recent weeks, many investors and analysts have become increasingly pessimistic that the Fed will be able to pull that off. Data have already shown signs of economic activity cooling. As rate increases further raise the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses, it is difficult to envision a way in which the Fed is able to avoid a downturn, many analysts say.

The Fed’s moves “raise the risk of a recession starting this year or early next year and raises the risk frankly that they’re not going to be able to keep raising rates that long,” David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said on a conference call with reporters Wednesday.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if within a year, we’re having a meeting where the Fed is considering cutting rates,” he added.


Unsurprisingly, stocks typically don’t do well during recessions. The S&P 500 has fallen a median of 24% during recessions going back to 1946, according to research from Deutsche Bank.

“If we don’t get a recession, we are getting close to extreme territory,” Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid wrote in a note.

The silver lining for investors is that, when the Fed begins to shift toward easing monetary policy, markets have historically responded positively and quickly—especially if the primary cause of their slide was related to central-bank policy, according to Goldman Sachs’s analysis.

What no one is sure of is when exactly the Fed will shift gears, and how much more pressure the economy might come under in the meantime.

“I expect the summer to be very choppy,” said Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #404 on: August 08, 2022, 03:47:02 AM »
Buffett Indicator

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

"(market) currently 40% (or about 1.1 standard deviations) above the historical average, suggesting that the market is Overvalued."



FitnessFrenzy

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #405 on: August 12, 2022, 03:23:49 AM »
look at the price of stocks compared to how low bond yields are. Then, stocks look interesting.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #406 on: August 25, 2022, 04:05:36 AM »
https://www.multpl.com/2-year-treasury-rate

Fed raising rates to build a cushion for the next recession.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #407 on: August 27, 2022, 04:14:24 AM »

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #408 on: August 27, 2022, 04:14:57 AM »

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #409 on: November 21, 2022, 04:27:29 AM »
'The bear market is not over,' according to Goldman Sachs

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-bear-market-goldman-sachs-104046106.html

The feel good vibes in the markets this holiday season may be coming to an end, warns Goldman Sachs.

"The bear market is not over, in our view," closely followed Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a new note. "The conditions that are typically consistent with an equity trough have not yet been reached. We would expect lower valuations (consistent with recessionary outcomes), a trough in the momentum of growth deterioration, and a peak in interest rates before a sustained recovery begins."

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #410 on: November 21, 2022, 04:28:34 AM »
Home flippers getting burned by the US housing downturn

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/not-time-greedy-home-flippers-110000999.html

'Not the time to get greedy': Home flippers getting burned by the US housing downturn are now slashing prices to cut losses.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #411 on: November 25, 2022, 08:26:11 AM »
Stocks will lag behind bonds and even decline over the next 10 years

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-lag-behind-bonds-and-even-decline-over-the-next-10-years-says-a-valuation-model-based-on-eight-indicators-11669383397?siteid=yhoof2

While stocks have fallen hard in 2022, they’re still not undervalued compared with years past

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #412 on: November 28, 2022, 06:02:40 PM »

Humble Narcissist

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IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #414 on: December 09, 2022, 05:55:11 AM »
Now may be the time to invest.

Invest in what?

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #415 on: December 10, 2022, 01:12:09 AM »
Invest in what?
The stock market. If the higher ups are discouraging it that probably means they are buying up stocks.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #416 on: December 15, 2022, 03:57:12 AM »
The Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/06/invertedyieldcurve.asp

"Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession..."

Gregzs

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #417 on: December 15, 2022, 04:44:25 PM »
The one thing that scares American expats the MOST


Humble Narcissist

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #418 on: December 16, 2022, 12:27:34 AM »
The one thing that scares American expats the MOST


Our tax system is the craziest in the world for it's citizens living overseas. Land of the free. ::)

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #419 on: January 20, 2023, 07:20:24 AM »
Forget inflation, Jefferies says to watch out for a ‘disinflation era’ like the early 1980s

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forget-inflation-jefferies-says-watch-175517331.html

Jefferies believes that Americans—and particularly American investors—shouldn’t be worried about inflation at all. Disinflation like what was seen in the early 1980s is the real threat, and it’s likely to come with falling corporate earnings and a U.S. recession by the second half of 2023.

IroNat

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #420 on: February 03, 2023, 08:22:10 AM »
Yield Curve Inverts To Depths Not Seen Since 1980s, Raising Recession Fears

12/08/22

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/12/08/yield-curve-inverts-to-depths-not-seen-since-1980s-raising-recession-fears/?sh=1beec4045022

After trending lower throughout 2022, the yield curve is now deeply inverted. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield less the 2-year yield now stands at levels not seen since the 1980s. This is a concern because this is a well-regarded indicator of a coming U.S. recession. The yield curve has a strong track-record in predicting recessions with very few false positives over recent decades.




loco

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #421 on: February 03, 2023, 04:05:56 PM »

loco

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #422 on: February 03, 2023, 04:08:05 PM »

Humble Narcissist

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #423 on: February 04, 2023, 02:00:18 AM »
Both classic videos Loco.

loco

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Re: Investing and personal finance
« Reply #424 on: February 04, 2023, 04:51:40 PM »
Both classic videos Loco.

Glad you think so.