Election 2018 Superthread

[Dos Equis]

PowerPost
Trump’s improved standing, energized GOP voters worry Democrats
 
President Trump and Indiana Republican senatorial candidate Mike Braun embrace during a GOP campaign rally Thursday. (Charles Rex Arbogast/AP)
By Sean Sullivan and Seung Min Kim May 14 at 6:00 AM Email the author
After months of confidence that public discontent with President Trump would lift Democrats back to power in Congress, some party leaders are fretting that their advantages in this year’s midterms are eroding amid a shifting political landscape.

Driving their concerns are Trump’s approval rating, which has ticked upward in recent weeks, and high Republican turnout in some recent primaries, suggesting the GOP base remains energized. What’s more, Republicans stand to benefit politically from a thriving economy and are choosing formidable candidates to take on vulnerable Democratic senators.

One of their biggest sources of anxiety is the Senate race in Florida, where some Democrats fear that three-term Sen. Bill Nelson has not adequately prepared to defend his seat against Gov. Rick Scott, a well-financed former businessman handpicked for the race by Trump. Scott and Nelson are close in early polls.

“I’m concerned about the race. I think everybody is,” said Ione Townsend, the Democratic Party chair in Hillsborough County, home to Tampa. Townsend said it will “be hard to compete” with Scott’s money.

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The growing alarm about Nelson, one of 10 Democratic senators running this year in a state won by Trump in 2016, prompted the Senate’s top Democrat, Charles E. Schumer (N.Y.), to sound the alarm a few months ago in a private meeting in which he pleaded with Nelson to step up his efforts and hire a campaign manager, which he did not do until March, according to people familiar with the conversation.

In West Virginia, where Trump won by about 42 points and Republicans gave the president credit last week for urging voters to reject the primary candidacy of a former coal executive who had served jail time, Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III acknowledged that Trump’s popularity in the state is a major boon for the Republicans.

 2:32
Trump's peculiar way of campaigning for Republicans
President Trump has been out in force to campaign for GOP candidates, but his endorsements have a mixed track record. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

“The more he can stay out of West Virginia and direct his energies elsewhere would be helpful,” Manchin said.

[In Senate primaries, Republicans avoid their worst-case fears]

Democratic worries are mounting in the House, as well, where the party has been more confident of gaining the 23 seats it needs to retake the majority. Democrats are picking strong candidates in dozens of Republican-held suburban districts where Trump has lost significant support — but recent surveys suggest the races may be tightening.


Trump’s approval is now at the highest point it has been all year, measured by Gallup in early May at 42 percent, a five-point increase from the start of 2018. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control Congress has shrunk, from 10 points in December to just six now, according to a Washington Post average of recent quality polls.

And Republicans are showing signs they will fight for the House, with GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson agreeing to give $30 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC backed by Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), according to a person familiar with the donation.

 2:53
What to watch in this year's state primaries
With both parties trying to put their best foot forward for November's general election, here are five things to watch in this summer's preliminary elections. (Jenny Starrs/The Washington Post)

“I think anyone who was proclaiming victory a couple of months ago was premature,” said Rep. Daniel Kildee of Michigan, who is a member of the leadership team of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “I think the president’s standing obviously has some impact.”

Republicans still have plenty of reasons to worry. While Trump’s numbers have improved, his standing is still historically low for a first-term president and his administration continues to face scandals and chaos, as well as the expanding inquiry by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III into Russian interference in the 2016 election.


History shows a president’s first midterm does not usually go well for his party. And recent special election results signal a strong year for Democrats, including their stunning win in the Alabama Senate race and the victory this year by a Democrat in a Pittsburgh-area district that Trump had won by 20 points.

Republican leaders, many of whom were previously uneasy about Trump and his brand of nationalistic politics and had clashed with him early in his tenure, have in recent weeks embraced the president, in large part because the party’s success could hinge on keeping his base fired up.

In private conversations, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has advised Trump not to criticize the Senate, said three people familiar with the discussions. McConnell told Trump that it is not good for either Trump or McConnell if voters feel like it makes no difference whether they choose Republicans to represent them there.

McConnell has also urged the president to work with him to promote electable Republican Senate candidates. Lately, Trump has heeded his advice.


He warned West Virginia Republicans not to vote for Don Blankenship, who served prison time for his conviction on mine safety violations and used racial epithets. On Tuesday, Blankenship lost the primary to state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a more mainstream candidate.

Republican officials are touting the GOP tax cuts, although polls suggest they have not been the political godsend the party had predicted, as well as Trump’s upcoming summit with North Korea’s leader, which stirs hope of stability and detente.

“Peace and prosperity’s a pretty good platform,” said Rep. Steve Stivers of Ohio, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Some local Democrats are nervous about the general election.

“I do worry. I think the pharmaceutical companies are going to throw all kinds of money in here,” said Marion Tanner, the chair of the Fayette County Democratic Executive Committee in West Virginia. Morrisey has past lobbying ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

Trump and McConnell welcomed the Republicans nominated for Senate in Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday. Trump held a campaign rally in Indiana on Thursday, where he stayed remarkably on message and praised the GOP nominee, Mike Braun.

“You saw a template for what you’ll see moving forward,” said White House political director Bill Stepien, referring to Trump’s rhetoric at the rally in Elkhart, Ind.

[At Indiana rally, Trump stays on message with an eye on midterms]

White House officials are trying to complement Trump’s efforts on the campaign trail by making Congress look better. At a recent briefing hosted by the White House’s Office of Public Liaison, Stepien emphasized that Republicans could help motivate their base by showing that the Senate was working, according to a person who attended the meeting.

Like others interviewed for this story, the person spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

During a Senate Republican luncheon last Thursday, Sen. Lamar Alexander (Tenn.) distributed pocket cards to senators that listed what the GOP has done since last year to help them remind voters. The cards included the tax law, repealing regulations and confirming conservative judges.

Nationally, Republican strategists said they believe that by withdrawing from the Paris climate accord, engaging with North Korea and pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal, Trump is giving conservative voters a powerful reminder of the blows he has landed against the policies of President Barack Obama.

Trump’s North Korea strategy has resonated with Keith Lowry, chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Executive Committee in West Virginia.

“His presentation leaves a lot of people lacking. And they don’t necessarily agree with his brash techniques or the way he tweets a lot,” Lowry said of Trump. “But the essence and the substance of the man — you just can’t argue with the accomplishments.”

In Florida, Scott’s entrance into the race not only boosted Republican chances of flipping Nelson’s seat, it also ensured that Democrats would have to spend more cash in the state that they would otherwise dedicate to other states.

Scott is wealthy and has a strong national fundraising network. He raised as much money in three weeks — $3.2 million — as Nelson did in three months.

On Saturday, Nelson held one of his first campaign events since Scott launched his campaign.

Republicans still have messy intraparty fights to navigate in Mississippi and Arizona, with polarizing Senate candidates who party officials believe could lose to Democrats. They are plotting ways to elevate the more electable ones.

If Democrats can flip one or both of those seats, their path to the majority will be easier, contingent on holding seats. Democrats also have a plum opportunity for a pickup in Nevada.

Democratic senators have focused on issues like health care, veterans and local matters rather than the national parties or culture wars. They are wagering that they don’t need to stoke the anti-Trump sentiment that is prevalent among base voters; they need to convince Republicans that it is okay to cross over.

Even in the House, where elections tend to align more closely to the national mood, candidates are trying to distinguish themselves on a personal level.

“Anyone who’s counting on a national wave to carry her into office isn’t much of a candidate,” said Rep. Matthew Cartwright (D-Pa.), who is running in a district where Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 10 points. “You’ve got to run your own race and you have to be your own person.”

Scott Clement contributed to this report.

“The more he can stay out of West Virginia and direct his energies elsewhere would be helpful,” Manchin said.

At least he's honest.  Very interested to see what kind of coattails Trump has compared to Obama. 

[Primemuscle]

RCP Average   4/25 - 5/8   --   45.4   40.2   Democrats +5.2

[Coach is Back!]

RCP Average   4/25 - 5/8   --   45.4   40.2   Democrats +5.2

"The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215".

[Primemuscle]

"The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215".

That was then, this is now. Keep up! Anyway, Real Clear Politics is not the Huffington Post.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

[Yamcha]

 

[polychronopolous]

Poll: Cruz Leads Beto O’Rourke among Hispanic Voters in Texas Senate Race

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National Review
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Poll: Cruz Leads Beto O’Rourke among Hispanic Voters in Texas Senate Race
By JACK CROWE
May 30, 2018 4:53 PM
 
Senator Ted Cruz speaks to reporters at the Capitol in Washington, May 10, 2017.   (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
Senator Ted Cruz (R., Texas) is leading democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by two percentage points among Hispanic voters in his campaign for another term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

The poll, which found that Cruz leads O’Rourke 46 to 44 percent among Hispanics, is a troubling sign for O’Rourke, who has tailored his campaign around his advocacy for racial minorities.

Equally troubling for the O’Rourke camp is the finding that Cruz has expanded his overall lead in the race from three points (47 percent to 44 percent) in April to a commanding eleven points (50 percent to 39 percent) today. O’Rourke, who currently represents El Paso as a member of the House, does however maintain a significant advantage among black voters, leading Cruz 70 percent to 15 percent.

Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, attributed much of Cruz’s newfound success to a general improvement in public opinion of the national Republican party.

“Senator Ted Cruz, apparently benefiting from a nationwide Republican mini-move, has taken a solid lead in his reelection race,” Brown said. “President Donald Trump’s Texas numbers also have climbed during those six weeks, moving from a nine-point deficit on job approval to an even split today. It is hard not to see a pro-Cruz effect there.”

“Finally, U.S. representative Beto O’Rourke’s lead among independent voters has shrunk,” Brown added. “Senator Cruz has improved his standing among some key groups, including independent voters, Hispanic voters, and men.”

O’Rourke, who has been held up by left-leaning media as Democrats’ best chance in years to “turn Texas blue,” appears to be struggling with name recognition: 50 percent of those surveyed did not know who he was.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-hispanics-poll/

[polychronopolous]

Trump will have a rock star like welcome when he eventually comes down to Texas to campaign for Cruz. That's going to be a helluva rally with both those guys on the mic.

[Dos Equis]

Poll: Cruz Leads Beto O’Rourke among Hispanic Voters in Texas Senate Race

Primary Menu
National Review
NEWS
ELECTIONS
Poll: Cruz Leads Beto O’Rourke among Hispanic Voters in Texas Senate Race
By JACK CROWE
May 30, 2018 4:53 PM
 
Senator Ted Cruz speaks to reporters at the Capitol in Washington, May 10, 2017.   (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
Senator Ted Cruz (R., Texas) is leading democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by two percentage points among Hispanic voters in his campaign for another term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

The poll, which found that Cruz leads O’Rourke 46 to 44 percent among Hispanics, is a troubling sign for O’Rourke, who has tailored his campaign around his advocacy for racial minorities.

Equally troubling for the O’Rourke camp is the finding that Cruz has expanded his overall lead in the race from three points (47 percent to 44 percent) in April to a commanding eleven points (50 percent to 39 percent) today. O’Rourke, who currently represents El Paso as a member of the House, does however maintain a significant advantage among black voters, leading Cruz 70 percent to 15 percent.

Peter A. Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, attributed much of Cruz’s newfound success to a general improvement in public opinion of the national Republican party.

“Senator Ted Cruz, apparently benefiting from a nationwide Republican mini-move, has taken a solid lead in his reelection race,” Brown said. “President Donald Trump’s Texas numbers also have climbed during those six weeks, moving from a nine-point deficit on job approval to an even split today. It is hard not to see a pro-Cruz effect there.”

“Finally, U.S. representative Beto O’Rourke’s lead among independent voters has shrunk,” Brown added. “Senator Cruz has improved his standing among some key groups, including independent voters, Hispanic voters, and men.”

O’Rourke, who has been held up by left-leaning media as Democrats’ best chance in years to “turn Texas blue,” appears to be struggling with name recognition: 50 percent of those surveyed did not know who he was.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/ted-cruz-leads-beto-orourke-hispanics-poll/

Good.  They poured a ton of money into this race trying to take Cruz out.