Author Topic: Fed To Prop Up Economy  (Read 426 times)

SAMSON123

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Fed To Prop Up Economy
« on: August 10, 2010, 02:22:13 PM »
But I thought everything was going good in america???


Fed, Citing Slowdown, to Buy U.S. Debt

nytimes

  


On Tuesday August 10, 2010, 2:49 pm EDT

WASHINGTON — Acknowledging that the recovery has slowed, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced that it would use the proceeds from its huge mortgage-bond portfolio to buy long-term Treasury securities.

By buying government debt, the Fed is taking an unmistakable step to maintain the large amount of money that it pumped into the economy, starting in 2007, to prop up the financial and housing markets.

The Fed bought $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, and another $200 billion in debts owed by government-sponsored enterprises, primarily Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and completed the purchases in March. The Fed had planned to allow the size of that portfolio to shrink gradually over time as the debts matured or were prepaid. Instead, the Fed will reinvest the principal payments in longer-term Treasury securities.

The central bank said it would continue to roll over its holdings of other Treasury securities as they mature.

In its announcement, the Fed also left unchanged its benchmark short-term interest rate — the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow from each other overnight — at zero to 0.25 percent, the level it has been at since December 2008.

In a new qualification to its previous statements, the committee said it still expected a “gradual return” to normal economic conditions, “although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.”

On Wall Street, shares regained some lost ground after the announcement.

Bruce McCain, the chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank, said Fed “steered the middle ground,” with the decision, while acknowledging the weakness that the market has been seeing in the economy.

“The fact that they committed to reinvesting was a little bit more than some had been looking for,” Mr. McCain said, “but at the same time it basically holds constant the size of their balance sheet.”

“Given the uncertainty, hopefully the middle ground calms nerves and keeps people confident enough to go ahead and spend the money that they have in productive ways,” he said, adding that the position suggests that the Fed does not expect an “enormous wave of economic weakness.”

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which runs the trading desk through which the Fed conducts open market operations, was expected to issue details on the transactions later in the afternoon on Tuesday.

At its last meeting, in June, the committee downgraded its outlook and openly discussed the prospect of deflation — a declining spiral of demand, prices and wages — but cautioned that it was only likely to act if the situation took a serious turn for the worse.

Since that meeting, the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and other Fed officials, had used cautious language in describing the state of the economy and the likelihood of new action by the central bank. In testimony before Congress last month, and at a speech in Charleston, S.C., last week, Mr. Bernanke said the economic recovery was continuing.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s vote on Tuesday was 9 to 1. The dissenter was Thomas M. Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

Mr. Hoenig has dissented frequently since the start of the year, asserting that the Fed’s stated policy of maintaining an “exceptionally low” level of the fed funds rate for an “extended period” was “no longer warranted.”

He dissented again on Tuesday, both on the extended-period language and on the decision to reinvest the mortgage-bond proceeds.

“Given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve’s holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the committee’s policy objectives,” the Fed said in a statement.
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Re: Fed To Prop Up Economy
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2010, 02:25:58 PM »
Summer of Recovery. 

tarzan

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Re: Fed To Prop Up Economy
« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2010, 07:26:13 PM »
It would be great if citizens could also do this! Have $20,000 credit card debt? No problem, buy your own debt and here is another $20,000 to go. Go spend it on that new Corvette in the showroom. I know it's not enough but you can finance the rest. It's got great rims and over 400 HP!!! Interest rates are low, what are you waiting for?!

Don't worry you will make money off Timmy 2 years from now when he needs your help fixing his computer. You can pay it back later!

Bindare_Dundat

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Re: Fed To Prop Up Economy
« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2010, 08:03:16 PM »
It would be great if citizens could also do this! Have $20,000 credit card debt? No problem, buy your own debt and here is another $20,000 to go. Go spend it on that new Corvette in the showroom. I know it's not enough but you can finance the rest. It's got great rims and over 400 HP!!! Interest rates are low, what are you waiting for?!

Don't worry you will make money off Timmy 2 years from now when he needs your help fixing his computer. You can pay it back later!

haha no doubt. The greatest lie ever created at everyones expense but those at the controls.

24KT

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Re: Fed To Prop Up Economy
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2010, 12:25:39 AM »
A plutonomy is unsustainable.
w

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Re: Fed To Prop Up Economy
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2010, 05:19:52 AM »
U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don't Even Know: Laurence Kotlikoff
By Laurence Kotlikoff - Aug 10, 2010 9:00 PM ET

Bloomberg Opinion

________________________ _____________

Let’s get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills.

What it can and must do is radically simplify its tax, health-care, retirement and financial systems, each of which is a complete mess. But this is the good news. It means they can each be redesigned to achieve their legitimate purposes at much lower cost and, in the process, revitalize the economy.

Last month, the International Monetary Fund released its annual review of U.S. economic policy. Its summary contained these bland words about U.S. fiscal policy: “Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal stabilization, but noted that a larger than budgeted adjustment would be required to stabilize debt-to-GDP.”

But delve deeper, and you will find that the IMF has effectively pronounced the U.S. bankrupt. Section 6 of the July 2010 Selected Issues Paper says: “The U.S. fiscal gap associated with today’s federal fiscal policy is huge for plausible discount rates.” It adds that “closing the fiscal gap requires a permanent annual fiscal adjustment equal to about 14 percent of U.S. GDP.”

The fiscal gap is the value today (the present value) of the difference between projected spending (including servicing official debt) and projected revenue in all future years.

Double Our Taxes

To put 14 percent of gross domestic product in perspective, current federal revenue totals 14.9 percent of GDP. So the IMF is saying that closing the U.S. fiscal gap, from the revenue side, requires, roughly speaking, an immediate and permanent doubling of our personal-income, corporate and federal taxes as well as the payroll levy set down in the Federal Insurance Contribution Act.

Such a tax hike would leave the U.S. running a surplus equal to 5 percent of GDP this year, rather than a 9 percent deficit. So the IMF is really saying the U.S. needs to run a huge surplus now and for many years to come to pay for the spending that is scheduled. It’s also saying the longer the country waits to make tough fiscal adjustments, the more painful they will be.

Is the IMF bonkers?

No. It has done its homework. So has the Congressional Budget Office whose Long-Term Budget Outlook, released in June, shows an even larger problem.

‘Unofficial’ Liabilities

Based on the CBO’s data, I calculate a fiscal gap of $202 trillion, which is more than 15 times the official debt. This gargantuan discrepancy between our “official” debt and our actual net indebtedness isn’t surprising. It reflects what economists call the labeling problem. Congress has been very careful over the years to label most of its liabilities “unofficial” to keep them off the books and far in the future.

For example, our Social Security FICA contributions are called taxes and our future Social Security benefits are called transfer payments. The government could equally well have labeled our contributions “loans” and called our future benefits “repayment of these loans less an old age tax,” with the old age tax making up for any difference between the benefits promised and principal plus interest on the contributions.

The fiscal gap isn’t affected by fiscal labeling. It’s the only theoretically correct measure of our long-run fiscal condition because it considers all spending, no matter how labeled, and incorporates long-term and short-term policy.

$4 Trillion Bill

How can the fiscal gap be so enormous?

Simple. We have 78 million baby boomers who, when fully retired, will collect benefits from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid that, on average, exceed per-capita GDP. The annual costs of these entitlements will total about $4 trillion in today’s dollars. Yes, our economy will be bigger in 20 years, but not big enough to handle this size load year after year.

This is what happens when you run a massive Ponzi scheme for six decades straight, taking ever larger resources from the young and giving them to the old while promising the young their eventual turn at passing the generational buck.

Herb Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under U.S. President Richard Nixon, coined an oft-repeated phrase: “Something that can’t go on, will stop.” True enough. Uncle Sam’s Ponzi scheme will stop. But it will stop too late.

And it will stop in a very nasty manner. The first possibility is massive benefit cuts visited on the baby boomers in retirement. The second is astronomical tax increases that leave the young with little incentive to work and save. And the third is the government simply printing vast quantities of money to cover its bills.

Worse Than Greece

Most likely we will see a combination of all three responses with dramatic increases in poverty, tax, interest rates and consumer prices. This is an awful, downhill road to follow, but it’s the one we are on. And bond traders will kick us miles down our road once they wake up and realize the U.S. is in worse fiscal shape than Greece.

Some doctrinaire Keynesian economists would say any stimulus over the next few years won’t affect our ability to deal with deficits in the long run.

This is wrong as a simple matter of arithmetic. The fiscal gap is the government’s credit-card bill and each year’s 14 percent of GDP is the interest on that bill. If it doesn’t pay this year’s interest, it will be added to the balance.

Demand-siders say forgoing this year’s 14 percent fiscal tightening, and spending even more, will pay for itself, in present value, by expanding the economy and tax revenue.

My reaction? Get real, or go hang out with equally deluded supply-siders. Our country is broke and can no longer afford no- pain, all-gain “solutions.”

(Laurence J. Kotlikoff is a professor of economics at Boston University and author of “Jimmy Stewart Is Dead: Ending the World’s Ongoing Financial Plague with Limited Purpose Banking.” The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Laurence Kotlikoff at kotlikoff@bu.edu