Author Topic: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?  (Read 1321 times)

Dos Equis

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Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« on: April 23, 2008, 11:05:38 AM »
I think Hillary is done, but when I read stuff like this it makes me pause. 

Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
     
(CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton Wednesday said her much-needed victory in Pennsylvania raises fresh questions about Sen. Barack Obama's electability.

Both Democratic presidential candidates planned to stump in Indiana after Clinton's scored a decisive win in Pennsylvania Tuesday, beating Obama by 10 points.

With 99 percent of the precincts reporting, Clinton was leading Obama 55 percent to 45 percent.

With the win, Clinton will pick up 81 of Pennsylvania's 158 delegates, while Obama won 69, CNN estimates. Eight delegates have yet to be allocated.

Obama on Wednesday downplayed Clinton's win, saying "it's important for people to keep things in perspective."

"We have won the white, blue collar vote in a whole bunch of states ... and if we had a demographic problem in Pennsylvania, it was that it's an older state than a lot of states, and it is true that Sen. Clinton has some strong support among voters over 60," he said on Roland Martin's radio show.

Indiana and North Carolina hold primaries on May 6, the next date on the primary calendar in what has become a protracted and, at times, bruising fight for the Democratic nomination. Obama is leading in North Carolina, and it's a tight race in Indiana, according to recent polls.

Obama's campaign on Wednesday announced endorsements from 49 supporters of John Edwards. Edwards, a former North Carolina senator who dropped out of the Democratic presidential race in January, has yet to endorse a candidate.

Clinton Wednesday argued the "tide is turning" as a result of her victory Pennsylvania.  Watch Clinton question Obama's appeal »

"I won that double-digit victory that everybody on TV said I had to win, and the voters of Pennsylvania clearly made their views known, that they think I would be the best president and the better candidate to go against Senator McCain," referring to the Republican presumptive presidential candidate Sen. John McCain of Arizona.  View photos from Pennsylvania »

"Clearly [Obama] outspent me again in Pennsylvania, 3 to 1, and we roared back with a tremendous grass-roots campaign and millions of people turning out to vote and favoring me by a big margin. ... The fair question is, if you can't win the states we have to win in the fall, maybe that says something about your general-election appeal," she said.

Clinton has scored wins in the large states of California, New York, Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania as well as in the Florida primary, which violated Democratic party rules because it was held at the end of January.

Obama, however, has won more state primaries and caucuses than Clinton, and leads her in the overall delegate count as well as the popular vote, despite her win Tuesday night. Obama leads Clinton 1,719 to 1,586, CNN estimates.  Call the races and see how the delegates add up »

Neither candidate can capture the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination with win in the remaining Democratic contests, meaning that the party's superdelegates will likely decide who gets the Democratic nomination.

Clinton and her backers have argued that the superdelegates should vote for her over Obama, despite his lead in the delegate count and the popular vote, because she is the more electable candidate in a general election.

Clinton won Tuesday by holding on to the core group of voters who have fueled her previous victories. She won a majority of female voters, voters over the age of 45 and white voters.

And, in a troubling sign for the Obama camp, only 50 percent of Pennsylvania voters who picked Clinton said they would vote for Obama if he was the Democratic nominee, while 26 percent said they would vote for McCain.

Nineteen percent of Clinton's Pennsylvania supporters said they would not vote in the fall if she was not the Democratic nominee.

Obama's inability to cut into Clinton's support among those groups may raise some concerns on whether he could win those groups if he became the Democrat's nominee in the fall.

Speaking to supporters in Evansville, Indiana, Tuesday night, Obama dismissed questions about his ability to cross cross racial, gender and generational boundaries.

"We can continue to slice and dice this country ... or this time we can build on the movement we started in this campaign, a movement that's united Democrats, independents, Republicans, young, old, rich, poor, white, black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay, straight," he said. "Because one thing I know, from traveling 46 states this campaign season, is that we are not as divided as our politics suggest."

"Now it's up to you, Indiana. ... You can decide whether we're going to travel the same worn path or whether we will chart a new course that offers real hope for the future," the Illinois Democrat said.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/23/democrats.race/index.html

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2008, 11:13:04 AM »
hilary - done?

If you include florida, they're tied.

tu_holmes

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2008, 11:15:07 AM »
He can win big states, he just can't win "old" states.

If you think about it as well... Do you think California, NY, or New Jersey will go to McCain?

Tre

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #3 on: April 23, 2008, 11:53:38 AM »
He can win big states, he just can't win "old" states.

If you think about it as well... Do you think California, NY, or New Jersey will go to McCain?

CA, NY, and NJ will go to Obama.

PA, FL, TX and most likely MI will go to McCain and that will be more than enough to win the Presidency.


tu_holmes

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2008, 11:55:09 AM »
CA, NY, and NJ will go to Obama.

PA, FL, TX and most likely MI will go to McCain and that will be more than enough to win the Presidency.



I thought Ohio and Florida were the big stomping grounds... I would wager that Obama can win some other states that typically go Red.

Perhaps Virginia and a couple of others.

Clinton can't win in Virginia at all.

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2008, 11:59:57 AM »
whoever wins 2 out the 3 big ones, wins the election:

OH, FL, PENN.

Bush squeaked out FL in 2000 with the help of a repub supreme court who stopped a handcount at 11 pm to seal the results.

In 2004, the repubs sued to PREVENT a recount of the paper backups, since they were so far out of sync with poll results, the OH chairman of diebold promised to deliver Bush the election, and that odd power outage just as voting ended ;)

So I'd say none of these states is a given for McCain, who is in a change election at the end of a war, facing recession.  Very very tough, historically, for candidates to win in changes year, at end of war, with economy slumping.  Even if obama/hilary sucks, people want a change, they'll settle.

tu_holmes

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2008, 12:01:15 PM »
whoever wins 2 out the 3 big ones, wins the election:

OH, FL, PENN.

Bush squeaked out FL in 2000 with the help of a repub supreme court who stopped a handcount at 11 pm to seal the results.

In 2004, the repubs sued to PREVENT a recount of the paper backups, since they were so far out of sync with poll results, the OH chairman of diebold promised to deliver Bush the election, and that odd power outage just as voting ended ;)

So I'd say none of these states is a given for McCain, who is in a change election at the end of a war, facing recession.  Very very tough, historically, for candidates to win in changes year, at end of war, with economy slumping.  Even if obama/hilary sucks, people want a change, they'll settle.

I truly think that more people will vote Obama than Clinton in the general election... I just think people don't like HER.

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2008, 12:07:19 PM »
I truly think that more people will vote Obama than Clinton in the general election... I just think people don't like HER.

I honestly don't know.

But i think together they win more voters than separate.

Clinton takes it - a lot of young voters don't bother.
Obama takes it - some middle class working don't bother.

Together, people will begrudglingly accept the hil/Obama ticket. 

tu_holmes

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2008, 12:08:48 PM »
I honestly don't know.

But i think together they win more voters than separate.

Clinton takes it - a lot of young voters don't bother.
Obama takes it - some middle class working don't bother.

Together, people will begrudglingly accept the hil/Obama ticket. 

I agree the only demographic they won't win is the white male.

Hire some extra Secret Service detail if they win... Whoever is President will be a target.



ToxicAvenger

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2008, 12:15:19 PM »
if billary gets the nomination..i'm voting republican...

i bet her cunny houses spiders..
carpe` vaginum!

tu_holmes

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2008, 01:25:25 PM »
if billary gets the nomination..i'm voting republican...

i bet her cunny houses spiders..

Hate to say it, but I am starting to lean that way as well... If she gets the Democratic nomination, I may vote McCain myself.

JOHN MATRIX

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2008, 01:27:14 PM »
in the big states he loses, obama wins the major cities. in the general, mccain will win florida anyway. if billary wins she will lose many of her voters to mccain. the dem. party still knows if the want to win the general, they have to run obama against mccain.

and yes, if hillary wins, i will vote for mccain simply because i hate her that much.
and yes, im sure her cunny houses several varieties of desert-dwelling spiders.

Dos Equis

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Re: Clinton: Why can't Obama win big states?
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2008, 01:28:36 PM »
I truly think that more people will vote Obama than Clinton in the general election... I just think people don't like HER.

Precisely.  People really don't like that woman.  That's partly why she can't win the general.  Her negatives are through the roof.  Here is a sample from a year ago:

A majority of Americans have an unfavorable image of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination. Clinton's current 45% favorable rating with the American public is her third consecutive reading below 50% in the past two months, and is one of the lowest Gallup has measured for her since 1993.

http://newsbusters.org/node/12131