16 for '16: The Most Talked-About Potential GOP Presidential Candidates

[240 is Back]

The primary could hurt or help.  It will either make the winner stronger or expose his/her weaknesses.  Or it could be a money drain as you say. 

Her weakness?   She's the most known candidate out there.  Her negatives are well known, and her approval rating is still insanely high.  I dunno how.

Don't forget that she will have very easy primary and can basically just focus on raising money. Whoever will be on GOPs ticket will be very hurt by the GOPs primaries and has to spend a ton to win the nomination. And don't forget that she has an Obamas election machine (the greatest in history and the reason why Obama won) and at the same time GOPs is outdated as fuck.

True... it'll be a mess in the GOP primaries... they'll be destroying each other to get that nomination.  Won't be friendly lol.  Lots of pledges & promises and calling each other out. 

[alabama ftw]

True... it'll be a mess in the GOP primaries... they'll be destroying each other to get that nomination.  Won't be friendly lol.  Lots of pledges & promises and calling each other out. 

Exactly! Just look at GOPs last primary. Even though Romney completely dominated (his ability to fundraise) and won fairly easily he was hurt badly before he was the official nominee.
2012 GOP primary will be a walk in the park compared to 2016.

[LurkerNoMore]

I don't know, but he hasn't ruled it out.  I don't think he will beat Hillary if they both run.  I don't know if Hillary will win or lose.  It depends on who her opponent is, how the race plays out, money, state of the country, etc. 

I like crayons and have spent many hours coloring in books with my kids.  Very therapeutic. 

But you didn't answer the questions.  If Biden is the nominee do you think he wins?

Also, are you predicting a Hillary landslide regardless of her opponent?   

No one predicts a landslide.  Well, no one that is sane and has any common sense does.

I don't have to worry about Biden because he isn't going to be the nominee anyway.  That being said, if he does get the nod then the election is going to come down on the VP choice again just like it did in 2008 when Palin cost McCain the election.

[alabama ftw]

I don't have to worry about Biden because he isn't going to be the nominee anyway.  That being said, if he does get the nod then the election is going to come down on the VP choice again just like it did in 2008 when Palin cost McCain the election.

He didn't lose because of Palin. He chooses Palin because he was desperately in need of a "game changer". The election was over when the economy collapsed.

[Dos Equis]

No one predicts a landslide.  Well, no one that is sane and has any common sense does.

I don't have to worry about Biden because he isn't going to be the nominee anyway.  That being said, if he does get the nod then the election is going to come down on the VP choice again just like it did in 2008 when Palin cost McCain the election.

Elections never come down to the VP choice.  People vote the top of the ticket, just like they did in 2008 and 2012. 

[Dos Equis]

He didn't lose because of Palin. He chooses Palin because he was desperately in need of a "game changer". The election was over when the economy collapsed.

Exactly. 

[240 is Back]

He didn't lose because of Palin. He chooses Palin because he was desperately in need of a "game changer". The election was over when the economy collapsed.

I dunno... Mccain was up by 4-5 before the convention. 

He chose Palin.  By Sept 9th, he was suddenly doen 4-5 points in every poll?  Like, seriously, ten point swing.

THEN the bottom dropped out.   Sept 15th was lehman and everything afterwards.  The true shit didn't hit the fan until October.... 

See the timeline - Mccain was out of the race by the time the economy really crashed in 08.  And he led before palin.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/Financial-Crisis/a/Stock-Market-Crash-2008.htm

[alabama ftw]

I dunno... Mccain was up by 4-5 before the convention.  

He chose Palin.  By Sept 9th, he was suddenly doen 4-5 points in every poll?  Like, seriously, ten point swing.

THEN the bottom dropped out.   Sept 15th was lehman and everything afterwards.  The true shit didn't hit the fan until October....  

See the timeline - Mccain was out of the race by the time the economy really crashed in 08.  And he led before palin.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/Financial-Crisis/a/Stock-Market-Crash-2008.htm

No, she was a desperate move to change the election.

To the point of redundancy, every discussion of Romney's eventual vice-presidential pick always leads to a snarky comment about "avoiding a Palin" or how Palin lost the election for John McCain. The argument is old and tired. But more importantly, the argument is false. To believe that Sarah Palin "cost" McCain anything you would have to ignore all poll data before and after Palin was selected, the enormous cash advantage of Obama, the historical obsession with Obama, the ad-war landslide in favor of Obama, McCain's odd campaign suspension, and the fact that before Palin, McCain could barely fill a high school gymnasium. So, let's examine reality and put the Palin-bashing to bed.

If you look at the 60 polls prior to Palin being selected as McCain's running-mate taken from June 1st through August 29th this is what you would find:

John McCain and Obama tied in 2 polls
John McCain led Obama in 5 Polls
Barack Obama led John McCain in 53 polls.
Yes, for every one poll that showed a McCain lead, Obama held a lead in 10 polls. In that span, Obama's lead in the polls was close to 6 points, fairly similar to the final outcome. I'm not sure how it was Palin's fault that McCain was getting throttled before anyone knew who she was.

http://usconservatives.about.com/b/2012/07/17/no-sarah-palin-did-not-cost-mccain-the-presidency.htm

McCains campaign manager

When did you know it was over?

The moment that I will look back at as the moment deep in my gut that I knew, was September 29, when I was flying on a plane with Governor Palin to Sedona for debate prep, watching the split screen on the TVs, because she had a JetBlue charter, and it showed the stock market down seven, eight hundred points; it showed the Congress voting down the bailout package on the other side, and then, House Republicans went out and told the world that the reason that they voted against this legislation, allowed the stock market to crash, allowed the economy to be so injured, was because Nancy Pelosi had given a mean and partisan speech on the floor. And this was their response. And I just viewed it as beyond devastating, and thought that at that moment running with an “R” next to your name, in this year, was probably lethal. But we kept fighting. John McCain never quit…And, you know, for, for my part I had expected that election night, that it would be a pretty early night.

[240 is Back]

"McCains campaign manager
Quote
When did you know it was over?

The moment that I will look back at as the moment deep in my gut that I knew, was September 29, "


My point is that Mccain had a 4 point lead the day before he chose palin.

17 days later, he was down 4-5 points.  This was Sept 15th... TWO WEEKS before Mccain's campaign manager realized it was over. 

Maybe a ten point drop in two weeks didn't convince him, and maybe he just considered a ten point drop to be no biggie, but really... the race was over at that point.  Sure, the economy didn't help him - but he had a monster drop 2 weeks before this example.  Shit started hitting fan on sept 15th...

[chadstallion]

"McCains campaign manager
Quote
When did you know it was over?

The moment that I will look back at as the moment deep in my gut that I knew, was September 29, "


My point is that Mccain had a 4 point lead the day before he chose palin.

17 days later, he was down 4-5 points.  This was Sept 15th... TWO WEEKS before Mccain's campaign manager realized it was over. 

Maybe a ten point drop in two weeks didn't convince him, and maybe he just considered a ten point drop to be no biggie, but really... the race was over at that point.  Sure, the economy didn't help him - but he had a monster drop 2 weeks before this example.  Shit started hitting fan on sept 15th...

it was over when she didn't know any magazines or newspapers that she reads every day.

[Dos Equis]

it was over when she didn't know any magazines or newspapers that she reads every day.

No, it was over when the economy collapsed.  Palin actually helped McCain. 

[LurkerNoMore]

Yeah, that downward spiral that occurred after the Katie interview really helped McCain out.

[Soul Crusher]

Funny how you clowns completely ignore McCain being the problem "Fundamenals of the economy are strong"  -  "We have nothing to fear about Obama presidency" etc etc


McLame was the problem - along w the stock market tanking - Palin only helped McCain. 

[Dos Equis]

Yeah, that downward spiral that occurred after the Katie interview really helped McCain out.

McWay has posted the numbers on the board several times showing Palin helped McCain.  Then there is this report from a few months ago.  The facts don't support you. 

Report: You betcha Sarah Palin helped John McCain in 2008, has 2016 support base
BY PAUL BEDARD | NOVEMBER 29, 2013

It's been debated for five years, and the conventional wisdom has generally concluded that Sarah Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, hurt Sen. John McCain's chances to beat then-Sen. Barack Obama for the presidency with her outsized and controversial personality.

But now a comprehensive new analysis of the so-called “Palin Effect” finds that in the final analysis, the former Alaska governor helped McCain by attracting more voters to the ticket, crushing a mainstream media view.

What’s more, while she attracted wider press attention than most prior veep candidates, her actual impact for a No. 2 was about average.

“Palin had a positive effect on McCain,” according to the new Palin analysis in the authoritative Political Research Quarterly.

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Digesting mountains of data, two political science professors from Bradley University in Peoria, Ill., said their findings showed that the conventional wisdom that independent voters ran from the McCain-Palin ticket was wrong. They found that independent voters had the same reaction to Palin as Republicans, who largely liked her.

Both findings could provide a basis for a 2016 run for the presidency by the Tea Party favorite.

“Palin did not have a negative effect on McCain's voter share overall, nor did she result in eroded support for McCain among critical swing voters such as independents and moderates,” the duo wrote.

Their analysis picked apart a recent report that Palin drove off voters and was uniquely divisive, claiming it was flawed.

Instead, it found that Palin “did not have a unique or unprecedented influence on the race; at best, she had precisely the same small effect on vote choice in 2008 that we would expect of any running mate.”

http://washingtonexaminer.com/report-you-betcha-sarah-palin-helped-john-mccain-in-2008-has-2016-support-base/article/2539935

[240 is Back]

No, it was over when the economy collapsed.  Palin actually helped McCain. 

it's easy to say that.  But he was up 5 points before choosing her.
17 days later, he was down 5 points.

with that kinda "help"...

[LurkerNoMore]

it's easy to say that.  But he was up 5 points before choosing her.
17 days later, he was down 5 points.

with that kinda "help"...

Exactly.

[Soul Crusher]

it's easy to say that.  But he was up 5 points before choosing her.
17 days later, he was down 5 points.

with that kinda "help"...

And in that time frame the world was thought to implode and McCain made his stupid comments. 

Why ignore that? 

Regardless- you voted for Obama along w the other idiots and now we are stuff w a failed president playing basketball, chooming, making us the butt of jokes worldwide, etc

[240 is Back]

And in that time frame the world was thought to implode and McCain made his stupid comments. 

Why ignore that? 

I thought the big business collapse happened from Sept 15th thru mid-october?

I think mccain's own campaign manager said sept 20th or so, something happened with economy and he knew the race was over?

Everyone ignores the FACT that mccain LED in polls entering the RNC debate weekend... then 2 weeks of train wreck with his running mate drama... then suddenly he was trailing badly. 

I mean, sure, blame something that happened AFTER the 10-point slide if you want.  The economy didn't help him, of course.

Saying palin was a terrible choice is not an endorsement of obama.  It's possible they're both idiots.

[Dos Equis]

it's easy to say that.  But he was up 5 points before choosing her.
17 days later, he was down 5 points.

with that kinda "help"...

I don't trust you or your numbers.  Or the context. 

[Dos Equis]

Exactly.

So you disagree with this? 

“Palin did not have a negative effect on McCain's voter share overall, nor did she result in eroded support for McCain among critical swing voters such as independents and moderates,” the duo wrote.

Their analysis picked apart a recent report that Palin drove off voters and was uniquely divisive, claiming it was flawed.

Instead, it found that Palin “did not have a unique or unprecedented influence on the race; at best, she had precisely the same small effect on vote choice in 2008 that we would expect of any running mate.”

http://washingtonexaminer.com/report-you-betcha-sarah-palin-helped-john-mccain-in-2008-has-2016-support-base/article/2539935

[LurkerNoMore]

Yeah I disagree with it.  If someone can find a chart showing McCain's poll numbers week by week before and after the Palin pick and the Katie interview, we would see a true picture.

[blacken700]

What that say for the repubs when that talks and they find nothing wronh with her lol

[RRKore]

I don't trust you or your numbers.  Or the context. 

Then google dat shit, old man. 

Who gives a flying turd about what you "don't trust"? 

[Dos Equis]

Then google dat shit, old man. 

Who gives a flying turd about what you "don't trust"? 

Yawn. 

[RRKore]

Yawn. 

Preferring opinion and belief over provable facts.  Shocker, eh?