Is there a state left that has either of those two data points, let alone both?
I have move all of my RE assets to Arizona. Also note that each state has pockets of prosperity that need to be sought out. Taxifornia for example. There is a "Return of the Snowbirds" to Arizona. Retirees with nice pensions are again flocking to the sun. Traffic at the stoplights in Scottsdale. I live 200 miles to the east high in a pine forest where traffic is 2 cars.
Arizona Outlook: A Little Better This Year
The forecast calls for a modest acceleration in Arizona’s job growth this year, with the rate rising from 2.1% in 2013 to 2.4% in 2014. As Exhibit 3 shows, the state’s job growth continues improve in 2015 and 2016. Keep in mind that even at 3.6%, job growth remains well below the average rate posted during the 30 years before the Great Recession (4.1% per year from 1977-2007). Thus, even though employment growth is expected to accelerate, the pace of activity will likely feel a bit slow.
Exhibit 3: Arizona's Job Growth Continues to Improve in the Near-Term - Arizona Forecast Summary
Exhibit 3: Arizona’s Job Growth Continues to Improve in the Near-Term
Arizona’s job growth rises in the near term in part due to less federal fiscal drag. We do not expect a repeat of the 2013 payroll tax increase, the sequester, or the government shutdown. In addition, state growth benefits from the continued recovery of the housing sector.
Employment gains during the 2013-2016 period will be concentrated in the service-providing sectors, with trade, transportation, and utilities; professional and business services; and education and health services adding the most jobs. Within the goods-producing sector, construction jobs increase the most, which reflects the continued housing recovery.
Housing permits are expected to rise from 23,765 in 2013 to 51,409 by 2016. Gains are expected in both single-family and multi-family permits. The housing recovery is driven by improved population growth, which rises from 1.3% in 2013 to 1.9% by 2016. In turn, faster population gains reflect rising residential mobility across the U.S., driven by an accelerating national economy. Increased residential mobility translates into more net migration, which fuels faster state population gains.
Arizona’s real per capita income rises in 2014 after a rough 2013. The forecast calls for growth to accelerate to 1.2% in 2014 and again in 2015 to 2.4%. That reflects in part the reduced federal fiscal drag in 2014 as well as stronger job growth.
Aggregate retail sales (the sum of retail sales less food, restaurant and bar sales, food sales, and gas sales) decelerates in 2014, reflecting in part the large one-time reallocation of sales from the use tax into retail sales less food in 2013. Retail sales pick up in 2015, reflecting faster income growth.
Phoenix and Tucson are also expected to gain momentum in the near term. Job growth in Phoenix is forecast to accelerate from 2.8% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014 and to 3.5% in 2015. Similarly, employment growth is forecast to accelerate in Tucson, rising from 0.7% in 2013 to 1.1% in 2014 and again to 2.0% in 2015. After peaking in 2017, growth gradually decelerates for both metropolitan areas during the remaining forecast period. This reflects the impact of the aging of the baby boom generation, with lower labor force growth driving slower overall economic gains.
