Author Topic: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading  (Read 2091 times)

Benny B

  • Time Out
  • Getbig V
  • *
  • Posts: 12407
  • Ron = 'Princess L' & many other gimmicks - FACT!
Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« on: July 27, 2011, 10:45:34 AM »
Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: July 27, 2011

   
Stocks were weighed down again on Wednesday by worries that the United States could default on its debt or see its credit rating cut as lawmakers in the world’s largest economy appeared no nearer to an agreement on raising the borrowing limit.

By midday, the Dow Jones industrial average had shed 119.36 points, or 0.95 percent, to 12,381.94. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index lost 17.28 points, or 1.30 percent, to 1,314.66, and the technology-stock-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 52.06 points, or 1.83 percent, to 2,787.90.

The United States has one week to reach a deal to increase its $14.3 trillion debt limit or face not being able to pay all of its bills.

Republican leaders had promised a vote on Wednesday in the House of Representatives on a plan to increase the debt limit and avoid America’s first-ever default. But the vote was put off until at least Thursday.

Though most investors think a last-minute deal to raise the debt limit will eventually emerge, the difficulty of reaching an agreement may leave a lasting impression on investor sentiment, some traders fear. That was evident in the price of gold, widely used as a haven investment; it reached a nominal record high above $1,625 an ounce on Wednesday.

A worry in the markets is that only a short-term deal will be struck, with a promise to revisit the issue later.

“Investors remain hopeful that a deal can be made in time, but the longer the delay goes on, the more entrenched investors’ fears become,” said Joshua Raymond, chief market strategist at City Index.


In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares and the DAX in Germany each fell about half a percent. The CAC 40 in France fared worse, trading 0.90 percent lower.

A raft of disappointing earnings in Europe did nothing to lift the mood. Banco Santander of Spain, the French car company Peugeot and the German pharmaceutical maker Merck were all trading sharply lower after their latest earnings updates.

Ben Critchley, a sales trader at IG Index, said investors would be keeping a close watch on the Congressional testimony of senior staff members of credit rating agencies in Washington on Wednesday.

“This may offer further direction on the likelihood of a downgrade for the U.S.,” he said.

In the currency market, the prospect of a potential American default also remained the main consideration. Not surprising, the dollar has drifted lower for most of the last few days.

The dollar, however, was managing to hold relatively steady on Wednesday, particularly against the euro. The euro was trading 0.2 percent lower, at $1.4462, while the dollar was 0.3 percent lower, at 77.70 yen.

The yen’s renewed strength against the dollar has reignited talk that the Bank of Japan would intervene again to stem the export-sapping rise in its currency. In March, after a devastating earthquake and tsunami, the Bank of Japan and other major central banks around the world intervened in the markets when the dollar was trading around the 76-yen mark.

The yen’s spike weighed on the country’s Nikkei 225 stock average, as much of Japan’s economic well-being is dependent on the performance of its exporters. The Nikkei closed 0.5 percent lower, at 10,047.19 points.

Elsewhere, the Kospi in South Korea edged up 0.3 percent to finish at 2,174.31 points, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 0.1 percent, closing at 22,541.69 points.

Chinese shares gained strongly as investors snapped up bargains two days after a sell-off led by railroad shares after a deadly train crash in the country’s east.

The Shanghai composite index gained 0.8 percent, closing at 2,723.49 points, and the smaller Shenzhen composite index gained 1.7 percent, to end at 1,190.83 points.

Oil prices dropped to near $99 a barrel after a report showed American crude supplies had unexpectedly risen last week, suggesting that demand might be weakening. The main New York oil contract was down 49 cents, to $99.10 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
!

ManBearPig...

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 12280
  • Professional Fighter
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2011, 10:47:31 AM »
Benny,
you're a fucking idiot, hope this helps.
Deep Tissue Massage

Benny B

  • Time Out
  • Getbig V
  • *
  • Posts: 12407
  • Ron = 'Princess L' & many other gimmicks - FACT!
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2011, 10:48:49 AM »
Debt-ceiling threat has Wall Street scrambling
Business executives have stepped up appeals for political action and prepared contingency plans in case the stalemate persists.

By Nathaniel Popper and Jim Puzzanghera, Los Angeles Times
July 27, 2011

Wall Street has tried to ignore the threat posed by Washington failing to raise the debt ceiling. No more.

Business executives stepped up appeals this week for political action, worried that the nation faced a crisis, and prepared contingency plans in case the stalemate persists. At Wall Street banks and investment firms, many traders are putting vacation plans on hold so they can be at their desks Aug. 2.

"Trading floors Street-wide are unusually well populated for this time of year," said Peter Kenny, a trader at Knight Capital Group. "You will see very few people on vacation."

The Dow Jones industrial average fell for a third day in a row Tuesday, the dollar slumped and gold hit a new high amid increasing jitters that President Obama and Congress won't reach an accord to lift the debt ceiling in time.

Without a deal, the most feared scenario is that the U.S. will miss payments on its bonds and default — which financial experts say would be disastrous. While still considered unlikely, the prospect is popping up more in conversations.

"No one … could possibly say that there is no chance of a catastrophic outcome," JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon told analysts last week.

The more likely scenario that investors are preparing for is that a temporary deal is struck to lift the debt ceiling. But such a makeshift plan is unlikely to allow the U.S. to maintain its AAA grade with bond rating companies. Citigroup analysts say the odds are 50-50 that the U.S. will be demoted to an AA rating for the first time ever.

Such a downgrade could lead to a temporary market panic. In the longer term it could push interest rates up for everyone from bankers down to ordinary people taking out car loans, and weaken the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency.


Meanwhile, bond rating company Moody's Investors Service warned Tuesday that the impasse in Washington threatened money market mutual funds. The investments are required to hold high-quality securities, including Treasury issues, and could be hurt if the government misses an interest payment on its debt.

The potential consequences give business leaders a responsibility to warn Washington policymakers about the real-life implications of failing to raise the debt ceiling, said Larry Zimpleman, chief executive of Principal Financial Group.

"I've been a little bit surprised that, if nothing else, the business community hasn't been a little bit more engaged to make sure the information is flowing to them," said Zimpleman, who has urged Washington to put politics aside and compromise.

One of the leading names on Wall Street, money manager BlackRock Inc., recruited leaders of other investment firms and large pension funds to send a joint letter to President Obama and congressional leaders asking them "to act with unity of purpose and spirit of commitment — and to act now." Signers included the powerful California Public Employees' Retirement System and the California State Teachers' Retirement System.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and financial industry trade groups such as the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Assn. and the Financial Services Roundtable pushed Congress to act. Unlike in previous debates about healthcare and financial reform, most of the financial community has tried to step delicately and avoid picking particular partisan plans.

Some financial executives said the intense partisan clash was like a firefight and business leaders were afraid to stick their heads too far out of the foxhole, at least in part to avoid getting in the way of a deal.

That was clear Tuesday as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced its support for the debt-ceiling package backed by House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio). But chamber spokeswoman Blair Latoff noted that didn't preclude the group from also supporting other debt-ceiling bills.

"Our priority is ensuring the debt ceiling is increased," she said.

But the broader silence by the business community can be largely explained by the assumption among bankers that politicians would have managed to strike a deal by now.

"There was a reasonable sense of optimism that this would be resolved last Friday," said Barbara Novick, the vice chairwoman of BlackRock. "We got to the end of the last week and it wasn't resolved, and everybody's concern level went up."

BlackRock is one of several financial firms that has offered up its economists and analysts to the different political factions in the debt debate to provide modeling and predictions for how different agreements would affect markets.

The firms have avoided advocating for any of the particular solutions that have been proposed. As long as there's no major tax increase — and the chances of one are remote — executives don't care exactly how the debt ceiling is raised as long as it's done to avoid a default and the risk of a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.

"Right now, at this moment, there's nothing more important for financial stability than coming to an agreement that will both lift the debt ceiling and put us on a sound fiscal path," said Rob Nichols, president of the Financial Services Forum, a trade association of the chief executives of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and other large financial firms.

Some major investors and borrowers already have taken steps to protect themselves from potential market turmoil. California had planned to borrow in August by selling short-term notes to investors, but instead on Tuesday took a $5.4-billion loan from eight major banks to bypass the U.S. debt drama.

State Treasurer Bill Lockyer said he couldn't take the chance that Washington would "risk pushing the country into a financial and economic abyss."

Some global investors have been buying gold as insurance. Gold hit another record high Tuesday and has risen 9% just since July 1.

But Treasury bond interest rates, which might be expected to surge if investors believed a default was inevitable, have remained near their lows of 2011. Major stock indexes are close to their 2011 highs reached in April, although the market has eroded in recent sessions. The Dow fell 91.50 points, or 0.7%, to 12,501.30 on Tuesday.

Industry experts say that even as the chance of a default or downgrade has grown, smart traders have stayed on the sidelines.

'We're literally sitting on our hands and just waiting," said Ted Weisberg, who works on the New York Stock Exchange floor for Seaport Securities. "When you don't know what to do the best thing is to do nothing."
!

mass243

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 12873
  • On right side of the history!
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2011, 10:49:40 AM »
Benny,
you're a fucking idiot, hope this helps.

How can you say that when he only copy pastes an article ?
You don't know what he thinks about the subject.


...................wait! He is an idiot just for doing that  :D

Benny B

  • Time Out
  • Getbig V
  • *
  • Posts: 12407
  • Ron = 'Princess L' & many other gimmicks - FACT!
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2011, 10:52:02 AM »
Khan Academy provides a short "Debt Ceiling For Dummies" lecture. Just doing my part over lunch to educate the getbig masses.  ::)  ;D


Basic of the deficit, debt and debt ceiling
!

Benny B

  • Time Out
  • Getbig V
  • *
  • Posts: 12407
  • Ron = 'Princess L' & many other gimmicks - FACT!
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2011, 10:55:16 AM »
Benny,
you're a fucking idiot, hope this helps.

How can you say that when he only copy pastes an article ?
You don't know what he thinks about the subject.


...................wait! He is an idiot just for doing that  :D


Please fill out, sign and send to Ron. He'll make sure it gets to the proper authorities
::)


!

ManBearPig...

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 12280
  • Professional Fighter
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2011, 10:58:07 AM »
Benny,

someone who would take 30 seconds to do some "research" would tell you there's absolutely no panic being shown in the markets the last few days.

for instance:

as i'm typing this, the s&p index is at 1315.

in the attached 3 month chart, you will see that in the last 3 months, it's moved from about 1362 as the high and 1265 on the low end.

at 1315, it's right about the average of that 3 month range.

if there really was a panic, it'd be below that range, probably closer to the lows of 666 reached a few months ago, rather than closer to its 2 year highs of 1360s.

so read what you post, and make sure it's from someone who at least has a realistic view of the "markets and trading", not just some random talking head asshole from the huffington post or wherever you found this shit.

the "markets" are OVERWHELMINGLY optimistic about the passage of the debt ceiling raise.

now go fuck off

Deep Tissue Massage

DroppingPlates

  • Competitors II
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 49987
  • Team Pocahontas
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2011, 11:04:49 AM »
There are even more "gurus" in the world of finance than our beautiful "sport", but in fact most of them don't know shit. James Harris Simons is an exception.

mass243

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 12873
  • On right side of the history!
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2011, 11:15:00 AM »
Hhaha, oldie but goldie  ;D


cart@@n

  • Getbig IV
  • ****
  • Posts: 1245
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2011, 01:03:52 PM »
Dow Jones:-1,59%
S&P 500   :-2,03%
Nasdaq    :-2,65%

DroppingPlates

  • Competitors II
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 49987
  • Team Pocahontas
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2011, 01:44:08 PM »
Dow Jones:-1,59%
S&P 500   :-2,03%
Nasdaq    :-2,65%


As interesting as the daily elephant shit production in India.

OneMoreRep

  • Moderator
  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 14074
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2011, 02:08:46 PM »
Benny,

someone who would take 30 seconds to do some "research" would tell you there's absolutely no panic being shown in the markets the last few days.

for instance:

as i'm typing this, the s&p index is at 1315.

in the attached 3 month chart, you will see that in the last 3 months, it's moved from about 1362 as the high and 1265 on the low end.

at 1315, it's right about the average of that 3 month range.

if there really was a panic, it'd be below that range, probably closer to the lows of 666 reached a few months ago, rather than closer to its 2 year highs of 1360s.

so read what you post, and make sure it's from someone who at least has a realistic view of the "markets and trading", not just some random talking head asshole from the huffington post or wherever you found this shit.

the "markets" are OVERWHELMINGLY optimistic about the passage of the debt ceiling raise.

now go fuck off


Finally, someone who gets it, not just a cut-and-paste bot.

"1"

tu_holmes

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 15922
  • Robot
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2011, 02:27:35 PM »
Finally, someone who gets it, not just a cut-and-paste bot.

"1"

That's called research... even just a little.

MBP makes a very good point here.

ManBearPig...

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 12280
  • Professional Fighter
Re: Debt Impasse Fuels Gloomy Trading
« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2011, 02:35:52 PM »
Dow Jones:-1,59%
S&P 500   :-2,03%
Nasdaq    :-2,65%


still 5% above any "slight concern" levels.
Deep Tissue Massage