they're the outlier dude. and early voting has gone obama's way in a big way.
U of Co doesn't match what everyone else is saying dude. I'm in agreement that romney will win on election day - BUT i'm talking TODAY, it would be obama based upon the early voting and the fact he's still ahead - although trending down.
Down to 58% on intrade. confidence is falling. But it'll be in this last 2 weeks that he REALLY appears desperate, with giant moves to pander to swing voters - in which his base will lose faith and common sense voters will give up on him.
Early voting makes little difference. The Dems had the early voting edge in 2010 but got slaughtered.
As for the power of the incumbency, that only works IF your record is solid. If your record is WEAK (as that of Obama is) then incumbency works against you, which explains why Obama wants this to be a "choice" election vs. a referendum on him.
As Chris Wallace said last night, if you were on an island for four years and just heard this debate, you'd swear Romney was the current president and Obama the challenger.
Every time Romney hit Obama on his record, Obama got quiet (that's in ALL the debates). Disqualifying Romney or "kill Romney" as a memo of the Obama camp stated, is the president's only hope.
So far, we've had:
Bully-Gate
Dog-Gate
Tax-Gate
Bain-Gate
Steelworker's-wife-dying-of-Cancer-Gate
47%-Gate
Mission-Gate
War-on-women-Gate...just to name a few.
NONE OF THAT HAS WORKED.
Obama's running out of time and his campaign has run out of money. If something drastic doesn't occur, Obama is all but toast.