Guide to Skeptical thinking

[Johnny Apollo]

Hello, This is a guide to "Skeptical thinking". You might be asking just what is "skeptical thinking"? Well i'm going to explain.

"Skeptic" comes from the greek word skeptomai which means "to consider". Skepticism is a doctrine of disbelief about particular areas of knowledge due to various reasons which i'll detail below.
So "Skepticism" is basically "doubt" about one thing or another for whatever reason.

In what I call "Critical Skepticism" you base your skepticism on the scientific princible and basic logic.
Critical Skepticism is about what you believe or do not believe.


Let's start out with nothing. There is nothing and you are nothing. Now you start to build up your belief system based on pure logic and reasoning. What exists? Do you exist? You do exist because Cogito, ergo sum(I think therefor I am). The fact you think proves without a doubt you are a being. Even if your thoughts aren't your own it still proves you're a being because your thoughts must be being put into you by something else. This is the first level of knowledge.


Then you of course are inside of a body surrounded by an environment. Is this body real? Is this environment real? You must make the reasonable assumption that your body and your environment is real. Or else you couldn't function in it. This is second level knowledge. Not absolutely 100% knowable but as close as you can get!


Now once you're where you are now. You must gather knowledge about the universe you live in. The "Scientific method" is a tool from which you gather knowledge and dispose of what is false.


In the Scientific method(The best tool for knowledge) you first make observations of something in the universe. Once these observations are done you then gather your data and then come up with "hypothesis" about these obsevations providing an explanation of them. A hypothesis must have experiments ready to support it,observation supporting it,It must make predictions and it must be falsifiable.


Once the hypothesis's predictions come to be true and attempts at falsifying it have failed it then turns into a "Theory".

A "Scientific theory" is a conceptual framework of facts that explain a particular phenomenon in the universe. Theories are supported by repeatable experiment and have made accurate predictions. A theory NEVER becomes a fact. A theory is made of facts and observations and laws. It stays a theory forever(until disproven) then another theory replaces it that accounts for the new evidence. A theory is NOT a "guess".

Example of a "Scientific theory" would be the "theory of gravity". Gravity is a known fact which is supported by laws. However the "theory of gravity" is an explanation of the phenomenon of gravity supported by the facts and laws.


In science there is something called "peer review" where if claims are made or discoveries made..The entire scientific community reviews them and critiques them and tries to refute them. Studies published in journals are refuted all of the time. Science is self correcting.


In Skeptical thinking you must be able to spot "logical fallacies" which even on this forum there are plenty of!

Here are a few logical fallacies that I got from Carl Sagan's

 Baloney Detection Kit


The following are suggested as tools for testing arguments and detecting fallacious or fraudulent arguments:

• Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts
• Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.
• Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities").
• Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.
• If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work.
• "Occam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the one with least assumptions.
• Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable?

Common fallacies of logic and rhetoric

• Ad hominem - attacking the arguer and not the argument. eg("Bob uses drugs therefor his argument about finance is wrong!")
• Argument from "authority". eg. ("Well this guy has a PHD therefor he's right without even proving he's right"). Even "authorities" have to prove their claims with evidence.
• Argument from adverse consequences (putting pressure on the decision maker by pointing out dire consequences of an "unfavourable" decision).
• Appeal to ignorance.  eg.("I don't know god does not exist therefor me must exist!")
• Begging the question (assuming an answer in the way the question is phrased).
• Observational selection (counting the hits and forgetting the misses).
• Misunderstanding the nature of statistics (President Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence!)
• Inconsistency (e.g. military expenditures based on worst case scenarios but scientific projections on environmental dangers thriftily ignored because they are not "proved").
• Non sequitur - "it does not follow" - the logic falls down.
• Post hoc, ergo propter hoc - "it happened after so it was caused by" - confusion of cause and effect. Eg.("I ate a corndog before I had a heart attack therefor the corndog caused it!")
• Meaningless question ("what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?).
• Excluded middle - considering only the two extremes in a range of possibilities (making the "other side" look worse than it really is).
• Short-term v. long-term - a subset of excluded middle ("why pursue fundamental science when we have so huge a budget deficit?").
• Slippery slope - a subset of excluded middle - unwarranted extrapolation of the effects (give an inch and they will take a mile).
• Confusion of correlation and causation.
• Straw man - caricaturing (or stereotyping) a position to make it easier to attack..Eg.("Evolution says we evolved from monkeys!")
• Suppressed evidence or half-truths.
• Weasel words - for example, use of euphemisms for war such as "police action" to get around limitations on Presidential powers. "An important art of politicians is to find new names for institutions which under old names have become odious to the public"

Links with more information about Critical thinking.



James Randi Education foundation
www.randi.org


Quack Watch
www.quackwatch.org

Skeptical Society
www.skeptic.com

The Committee for the Scientific Examination of Claims of the Paranormal www.csicop.org

The Skeptic's Dictionary(From abracadabra to zombies)
www.skepdic.com

Skeptic News

www.skepticnews.com

[Oldschool Flip]

The main problem I see with "skeptical thinking" is that the thinker ALWAYS looks for the negative side of an event first before trying to look at it from a positive aspect.

A great example is Sales in any form (retail, direct, internet etc.) If a skeptical thinker were to attempt to try to be a sales person, once they attain the knowledge on how to present or demo, he/she would analyze and find you would get more no's than yeses. A skeptical thinker would then accept the no's.

I have NEVER met a skeptical thinker who was great in sales. Because sales is based more on attitude than aptitude, a skeptical thinker already has the attitude that the averages are against him/her to make it in that type of business. Therfore they are miserable failures and proceed to believe that someone has to "have" a special ability to do that type of work.

It's a great learning tool for Science, but for assessing businesses or making decisions based on "gut" feelings, nah.

[SuperNatural]

I actually like this topic.  Good choice Apollo.  Another one I see a lot is the fallacey of equivication.  Such as the argument for love. 
God = love
Love exists
Therefore God exists



P.S.  I still think I hate you 

[Johnny Apollo]

The main problem I see with "skeptical thinking" is that the thinker ALWAYS looks for the negative side of an event first before trying to look at it from a positive aspect.

Negative and postive are relative.

I think of my viewpoint as positive you may think of it as negative. This doesn't prove anything.


I say the nonskeptical thinkers viewpoint is negative.

A great example is Sales in any form (retail, direct, internet etc.) If a skeptical thinker were to attempt to try to be a sales person, once they attain the knowledge on how to present or demo, he/she would analyze and find you would get more no's than yeses. A skeptical thinker would then accept the no's.

Why would he accept the No's? That makes no sense.

I have NEVER met a skeptical thinker who was great in sales. Because sales is based more on attitude than aptitude, a skeptical thinker already has the attitude that the averages are against him/her to make it in that type of business. Therfore they are miserable failures and proceed to believe that someone has to "have" a special ability to do that type of work.

You're failing to make sense again.

Being a "skeptical thinker" doesn't mean you can't work with people or fake your attitude...Assuming you have a "bad one" to begin with.

You've never met a skeptical thinker good in sales? I've never met a non-skeptical thinker good in sales. 

It's a great learning tool for Science, but for assessing businesses or making decisions based on "gut" feelings, nah.

Skeptical thinking applies to all situations.

In sales a non-skeptical thinker will be gullible enough to believe anything told to them. If a potential coustomer at first acts hesitant about buying something..The non-skeptical thinker will accept this and not be skeptical of the persons hesitance. The skeptical thinker will realize he can trick him into buying the thing and will then precede to do that.

[Oldschool Flip]

Negative and postive are relative.

I think of my viewpoint as positive you may think of it as negative. This doesn't prove anything.


I say the nonskeptical thinkers viewpoint is negative.

Fair enough we both have opinions on that.

Why would he accept the No's? That makes no sense.

Based on analysis. Sales trends, regardless of of what type, normally use ratios to gauge success rates. IE For every 7 customers that look at a car at a particular car lot, only 1 of them will purchase. Skeptical thinking would lead that person to believe most customers are there to "look" and not to buy.

You're failing to make sense again.

Actually I'm making great sense.

Being a "skeptical thinker" doesn't mean you can't work with people or fake your attitude...Assuming you have a "bad one" to begin with.

In sales, most skeptical thinkers don't believe customer will buy based on sales ratios again.
When you don't think people will buy, it TOTALLY affects the way you approach people and they can sense desperation, insensitivity (fake attitude)etc. Seen it time and time again. Surveys from people have shown the number 1 reason they bought from a salesperson was because of that person.

You've never met a skeptical thinker good in sales? I've never met a non-skeptical thinker good in sales. 

That's probably because you're "skeptical" about buying anything from a salesperson with a positive attitude! Johnny I've been in the sales business for over 20 years and have experiences from several companies. In ALL of them, the skeptical ones either quit early, or failed miserably.

Skeptical thinking applies to all situations.

In sales a non-skeptical thinker will be gullible enough to believe anything told to them. If a potential coustomer at first acts hesitant about buying something..The non-skeptical thinker will accept this and not be skeptical of the persons hesitance..

Totally wrong. They would take whatever objection that customer has and use that a a reason for them to buy. The objection is the obstacle and once you know how to interact with the customer, you can show them the objection is not really the reason why they aren't buying.

The skeptical thinker will realize he can trick him into buying the thing and will then precede to do that.

Wrong again. The skeptical thinker has just proved to himself that "people don't buy" so there is no reason to pursue the sale any longer. Good salespeople do not "trick" their customers into buying, but use the customers response as the reason to why the customer has procratinated to making their purchase. I could do a small seminar on this, but you wouldn't pay me.

Good and great sales people are optimistic in negative situations. One who is skeptical usually has no optimism and therefore usually fail. Skeptical thinkers in the sales business always come up with the "excuses" on why it can't be done rather then why it can be done.

You'd be horrible at sales.

[OzmO]

Why would he accept the No's? That makes no sense.

What he means Johnny is the skeptical thinker would make a decision that a particlular circumstance concerning a client would be a "no" based on previoius data.

A postive thinker wouldn't make a negative determination on virtually any circumstance and becuase of that will get sales in places he/she wouldn't normally.


I think you don't have the sense to make sense of that.

You've never met a skeptical thinker good in sales? I've never met a non-skeptical thinker good in sales.

You live a bubble Johnny.  You need to get out from behind your computer more and join the real world.  Also, this time you are all up in the kool-aid and you don't even know what kool-aid is.

What you really mean by that statement is that the best approach to selling you is to use the "skeptical" approach.  Which fits.

The skeptical thinker will realize he can trick him into buying the thing and will then precede to do that

Selling is not about tricking anyone.  Sales people who "trick" people into buying things have very short careers. 

You making that statment says volumes about your character...  as if anyone on this forum needed a clue!

Once again Johnny your mouth is overloading you ass as you try and look like you know something.

[OzmO]

In all fairness.....

Sleptical thinking is perfect for:

Investigators
Scientists
Detectives
Quality control
IRS agents

[Oldschool Flip]

In all fairness.....

Sleptical thinking is perfect for:

Investigators
Scientists
Detectives
Quality control
IRS agents

You forgot:

Dictators
Pessimists
Drug Dealers

[24KT]

OK, so this is the thread Oldschool mentioned. Finally found it.

I agree 1000000% with OzmO, those looking to trick people don't last very long.

Johnny, you are waaaaay out of your element here. Trust us when we say skeptical thinking has no place in a successful sales career.

So guys when are we gonna play Texas Hold 'em? 

[24KT]

PS:  Hi, Judi!   

{lol} oh good grief. Not this again! 

[OzmO]

PS:  Hi, Judi!   

Anyone have some good theories on the great pyramid?

Also, you may be right goatboy.  However, the precurser to pessimism is critical thinking.

[Oldschool Flip]

{lol} oh good grief. Not this again! 

What's up with the Pyramid Jag?

[24KT]

What's up with the Pyramid Jag?

Geo like to stalk me around GetBig posting pictures of pyramids behind my posts, because he doesn't understand the different between a pyramid and a legitimate network mtkg operation.

[Oldschool Flip]

Geo like to stalk me around GetBig posting pictures of pyramids behind my posts, because he doesn't understand the different between a pyramid and a legitimate network mtkg operation.

Geo and Goatboy are the same person?

[24KT]

Great post!

And to those who label critcal thinking as pessimism, get a realitycheck! Both optimism and pessimism although both having the ability of being "self fulfilling prophecies" for a respective persons life, are still in a situational basis dependant on the concept of reality (neither positive or negative thoughts can change the fact that there is a skyscraper in front of you if you're standing in front of one, but optimists tend to go to the top to enjoy the view). Neither pessisimism nor optimism can change stone hard reality, yet both "views" are still determined by the result of reality. In other words, pessimism or optimism are how you interpret things found in "reality". So, if you want to be a SMART pessimist, or optimist, apply critical thinking nevertheless. We've all seen "optimists" not using critical thinking both lose all their friggin' money and/or being ripped off. True achievers are optimists regarding the end result, because they know that time and effort will get them there, but they are still critical thinkers analyzing every piece of information coming their way on their journy towards their goals..

And to use critical thinking in sales is neccessary to ensure optimal results, and a pure "happy attitude" can't get you the sale alone

Critical thinking is NOT skeptical thinking. Johnny said skeptical thinkers make the best salespeople because they're capable of tricking the consumer into buying. He appears to have no idea what a salesperson is or what they do. Salespeople know their product, ...then they match customers to those products based on the needs and wants of those customers. They don't try to trick, or convince. Those who think their job is to trick or convince fail miserably. That's the point we're making. No one is talking about a "happy attitude", ...although it helps {lol}

I personally find it hilarious that there are those willing to agree with someone who has no experience in that area as opposed to those who not only have experience, but also a considerable track record of success in not only practical application, but also in training, recruiting, coaching and mentoring others in the sales arena. One would think that "results from hands-on, practical, in the trenches experience" should speak far louder than the "theories spawned from the bowels of narcissism and megalomania", ...at least for critical thinkers anyway. 

[OzmO]

Great post!

And to those who label critcal thinking as pessimism, get a realitycheck! Both optimism and pessimism although both having the ability of being "self fulfilling prophecies" for a respective persons life, are still in a situational basis dependant on the concept of reality (neither positive or negative thoughts can change the fact that there is a skyscraper in front of you if you're standing in front of one, but optimists tend to go to the top to enjoy the view). Neither pessisimism nor optimism can change stone hard reality, yet both "views" are still determined by the result of reality. In other words, pessimism or optimism are how you interpret things found in "reality". So, if you want to be a SMART pessimist, or optimist, apply critical thinking nevertheless. We've all seen "optimists" not using critical thinking both lose all their friggin' money and/or being ripped off. True achievers are optimists regarding the end result, because they know that time and effort will get them there, but they are still critical thinkers analyzing every piece of information coming their way on their journy towards their goals..

And to use critical thinking in sales is neccessary to ensure optimal results, and a pure "happy attitude" can't get you the sale alone

Great stuff DF.  I agree with you that in the purest sense crtical thinking is neccesary.  You have to know when you are wasting your time and energy.  In sales, things are usually not black and white other then to the extent of whether or not you have a qualified customer or not.  Being that you have a qualified customer attitude plays a very big part in your results. 

Also, many people assiciate a postive attitude with a happy attitude.  My interpretation couldn't be farther from that.  I see too many people in sales mask thier attitude towards their failures with a "happy or positive" attitude in such a way that it seems to lessen any effort to improve on their part.  They'll say things like,  "but i'm still positive and put on a phony smile"   I believe postive attitude is one that is focuses solutions and getting the job done.   Yes, in sales you need a pleasant dispostion around customers, but not to the extent it sabotages your inspirational dissatifaction with your results.  A person with a true postive attitude tries harder, works harder, finds ways to improve,uses critical thinkking, and positive expectency while a person with faulty postive attitude seems to believe all they need is to still be postive and things will change.  To me results are positive.     

[24KT]

Great stuff DF.  I agree with you that in the purest sense crtical thinking is neccesary.

Ok hang on a moment. Are we talking about skeptical thinking, or critical thinking? There's a dif.

Also, many people assiciate a postive attitude with a happy attitude.  My interpretation couldn't be farther from that.  I see too many people in sales mask thier attitude towards their failures with a "happy or positive" attitude in such a way that it seems to lessen any effort to improve on their part.  They'll say things like,  "but i'm still positive and put on a phony smile"   I believe postive attitude is one that is focuses solutions and getting the job done.   Yes, in sales you need a pleasant dispostion around customers, but not to the extent it sabotages your inspirational dissatifaction with your results.  A person with a true postive attitude tries harder, works harder, finds ways to improve,uses critical thinkking, and positive expectency while a person with faulty postive attitude seems to believe all they need is to still be postive and things will change.  To me results are positive.     

100% agreement. Your attitude determines your altitude!

Now when are we gonna play Texas Hold 'em? 

[OzmO]

See that Johnny?  DF's comments.

You can have a debate and or a disscusion or disagree with someone with out being combative or arrogant.

I learned a little more about insight about the differences between pessimism, critical thinking and skeptical thinking.

Jags, Oldschool is buying a mic soon i hope.  But what we are gonna do?  have a 3 way tourney with 1000 play chips?  or would you like to play a real cash game? 

I usually play cash games although i do real well in single table tourneys.  This is all in person, as i've never played much on the internet other than the begginging of last year when i was learning to play.

[24KT]

I'm not sure I understand what you mean, as nothing you wrote corresponds to what I wrote in my post, and since you quoted my post, it's easy to interpret yours as a comment on what I wrote. What I wrote was that selling purely on "a happy attitude" won't get nearly as far as applying a great attitude along with a critical thinking process where you analyze all the cues and information the customer/customers is sending you. I was not in any way refering to Apollos statement about "tricking" the customer.

I was responding to your post, however no where has it previously been suggested that one can sell on a "happy attitude" alone. My comment "although it helps" was a joke, hence the {lol}. I agree that critical thinking is required, (not just in sales, but in every area of one's life, ...but I do not believe that critical thinking is "skeptical thinking". I believe that if a salesperson does his job correctly (with a properly qualified candidate), the sale is pretty much theirs to close ...especially if and when the customer applies critical thinking to what s/he has just been presented. But I think a "skeptical" thinker will flop as a salesperson. A "skeptical" thinker (if Johnny is any example) would be unable to see the forest because there are too many trees in the way. If you can't see the forest, how are you going to show it to the customer?

[24KT]

No.

But since Judi is off her meds again, I'll play along. 

Oh joy, ...another internet stalker. 

[24KT]

See that Johnny?  DF's comments.

You can have a debate and or a disscusion or disagree with someone with out being combative or arrogant.

I learned a little more about insight about the differences between pessimism, critical thinking and skeptical thinking.

Ya, ...but you have people skills. 

Jags, Oldschool is buying a mic soon i hope.  But what we are gonna do?  have a 3 way tourney with 1000 play chips?  or would you like to play a real cash game?

   Oh no no no... not for real cash.  I wouldn't feel right taking your money. 
I prefer to play for aggravating braggin rights (rubbing people's noses in it) and slave time 
Since you're both married and living far away, ...I'll have to make do with the bragging rights.

I usually play cash games although i do real well in single table tourneys.  This is all in person, as i've never played much on the internet other than the begginging of last year when i was learning to play.

oooooooh, ...someone's a little pinocchio face! I'm not buying it Mr. I only learned how to play yesterday. 

PM me your skype screenname.

[Oldschool Flip]

Ya, ...but you have people skills. 

   Oh no no no... not for real cash.  I wouldn't feel right taking your money. 
I prefer to play for aggravating braggin rights (rubbing people's noses in it) and slave time 
Since you're both married and living far away, ...I'll have to make do with the bragging rights.

oooooooh, ...someone's a little pinocchio face! I'm not buying it Mr. I only learned how to play yesterday. 

PM me your skype screenname.

Jag, OsmO is not married anymore and does travel to the east coast (NY state I believe) frequently. Just thought you should know.

[24KT]

Jag, OsmO is not married anymore and does travel to the east coast (NY state I believe) frequently. Just thought you should know.

Oldschool, If OzmO thought it was important, ...I'm sure he would have told me that himself ...don't you?