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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Thin Lizzy on March 03, 2024, 02:14:26 PM
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I’ll try to keep this current going forward until the election:
IMO, the best bet even from a value standpoint is Trump at about even money. Michelle is the sucker play as that 7 to 1 is tempting.
How bad is Kamala to be 20-1?😂
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Both Biden and Trump’s odds have gone down; Biden because looks like she’s not in the mix anymore, and Trump because Haley finally dropped out.
https://www.oddstrader.com/betting/analysis/us-election-odds/
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You can’t go off any of this crap. Hilary had a 96% chance of winning and she got smoked.
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I think a poll with 4 candidates that were not even running is very accurate.
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I’ll try to keep this current going forward until the election:
IMO, the best bet even from a value standpoint is Trump at about even money. Michelle is the sucker play as that 7 to 1 is tempting.
How bad is Kamala to be 20-1?😂
Great thread Tin Hat. You should start a lot more.
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Great thread Tin Hat. You should start a lot more.
Just keep playing to the two people on the board who still buy into the Covid scam, and keep wearing that mask. Two are better than one.
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You can’t go off any of this crap. Hilary had a 96% chance of winning and she got smoked.
Favorites losing Presidential elections are rare exceptions. Hillary was one of them.
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I saw this on DK.
Only interesting thing to me would be to take the longshot on RFK or (puke) Newsom if you want to believe neither Trump nor Biden will run.
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I saw this on DK.
Only interesting thing to me would be to take the longshot on RFK or (puke) Newsom if you want to believe neither Trump nor Biden will run.
Or that they will croak before the election.
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Or that they will croak before the election.
I would count that as "not running".
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/
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Nate Silver Gives Dire Prediction About Joe Biden's Chances
https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-dire-prediction-joe-biden-chances-1845162
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Nate Silver Gives Dire Prediction About Joe Biden's Chances
https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-dire-prediction-joe-biden-chances-1845162
Don't know Nate.. I do know 538 is well respected.. and it appears to be a coin toss. Either way... America Loses.
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Don't know Nate.. I do know 538 is well respected.. and it appears to be a coin toss. Either way... America Loses.
He is the founder of 538
From Wiki:
“Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023.[2]”
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He was one of the most known advanced metrics guys in baseball when I started following that stuff.
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/09/trump-biden-poll-election-presidential
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He is the founder of 538
From Wiki:
“Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics), basketball, and elections (see psephology). He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News, until May 2023.[2]”
Did not know that. I read the article. People are concerned about Bidens age. He shouldn't be the nominee, but he is. At this point the national polling shows a toss up with the margin of error. I think it will be close and can go either way depending on which side is more motivated... Republicans voting for their favorite candidate, or Democrats voting against Trump. They darn sure aren't voting out of love for Biden.
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Did not know that. I read the article. People are concerned about Bidens age. He shouldn't be the nominee, but he is. At this point the national polling shows a toss up with the margin of error. I think it will be close and can go either way depending on which side is more motivated... Republicans voting for their favorite candidate, or Democrats voting against Trump. They darn sure aren't voting out of love for Biden.
If you feel this way, you should bet Biden as he is a big overlay at 2-1.
But before you do that, look at the swing state polls and you’ll see why Biden is a 2-1 Underdog.
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How bad Kamala? Michelle is essentially a no go and Harris is still 25-1.
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If you feel this way, you should bet Biden as he is a big overlay at 2-1.
But before you do that, look at the swing state polls and you’ll see why Biden is a 2-1 Underdog.
I might look into that... it's a gamble but if it's 2-1 that seems like pretty good odds considering the data
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You can’t go off any of this crap. Hilary had a 96% chance of winning and she got smoked.
Thats because she's an evil fucking bitch
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How bad Kamala? Michelle is essentially a no go and Harris is still 25-1.
They are not even running. ::)
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There will always be civil unrest now forever, with civil peace to never return.
When Trump won in 2016 the left flipped their lid, and started the internal conflict.
Ghey Barry was basically left alone for 8 years compared to how the left flipped out in 2016.
Agnostic said "no matter who wins, the country loses (or similar). It will be like that forever now.
No more simple disagreements, where one party maybe you liked some of their ideas, and then liked some from the other party.
Today, no one cares about anything except for their "side" and dont know much about what's really going on.
Looney left is trying to go full commie/socialist which never worked anywhere.. Ever...
Not too bright...
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An old guy will win.
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They are not even running. ::)
There’s a lot of talk of Biden dropping out. If so, the VP would the logical choice. If you had someone remotely competent the odds would be much lower.
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An old guy will win.
Yep very good odds on that.
🤣😂🤣😂
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https://apnews.com/article/trump-policies-agenda-election-2024-second-term-d656d8f08629a8da14a65c4075545e0f
Love It!
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Not looking good for Old Yeller:
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An old guy will win.
Got $10,000 saying that
any takers?
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Got $10,000 saying that
any takers?
It’s essentially a bet that at least one won’t make to Election Day and a younger replacement wins.
If Biden doesn’t make it, all his potential replacements are polling worse. If Trump doesn’t make it, I guess Haley or Desantis would jump in. Haley was polling well against Biden. So, she would have a shot.
I’d need 20-1 to take the bet.
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Another blow to Old Yeller
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Another blow to Old Yeller
Its corrupt and fixed though, so wont matter.. US is doomed, including the retarded libz, they just dont understand it yet...
Not very bright people in that cult...
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Its corrupt and fixed though, so wont matter.. US is doomed, including the retarded libz, they just dont understand it yet...
Not very bright people in that cult...
While the US government is certainly on the back nine, I don’t think the Dems are gonna be able to pull off the 2020 stunt in 2024. It won’t be close enough.
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The way it’s shaping up, if Joe kicks, they’re gonna go with Newsome.
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The way it’s shaping up, if Joe kicks, they’re gonna go with Newsome.
I think the plan has been Newsom and/or Michelle Obama.
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I think the plan has been Newsom and/or Michelle Obama.
I’m just going by the odds and Michelle’s have gotten a lot higher.
At one point was at 8-1. Now, 40-1.
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She has said on multiple occasions, she doesn't want it.
Why do it when you can relax with all your millions, but still have Presidential influence with no downside?
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I’m just going by the odds and Michelle’s have gotten a lot higher.
At one point was at 8-1. Now, 40-1.
She would be much more competitive than Biden.
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She has said on multiple occasions, she doesn't want it.
Why do it when you can relax with all your millions, but still have Presidential influence with no downside?
Yes it makes no sense for her to run when she can just spend her millions. And you should see the house they built in Hawaii. Tore down the old Magnum PI house and rebuilt.
That said, do you actually believe anything they say? It makes more sense strategically to claim she doesn't want it, then swoop in as a white knight to save the country when Biden finally acknowledges that he is neither mentally nor physically fit to be POTUS.