Election 2016

[spotter]

How about ....we let them beat the shit out of each other......Whoever wins, is President!!!

[Primemuscle]

good point - one lie and the person is a liar.

of course hilary is a liar and full of shit.  Not sure why hilary being a liar excuses Carson being a liar?

You're right one liar does not excuse another liar. One thing I want to mention is that Hillary seems to be a much more savvy liar. Carson's lies are way to easy to expose. He's been caught dead to rights and yet he hangs on to the lie for dear life. Also, some of his lies seem to have no real purpose, thus the question as to him being a pathological liar.

[240 is Back]

You're right one liar does not excuse another liar. One thing I want to mention is that Hillary seems to be a much more savvy liar. Carson's lies are way to easy to expose. He's been caught dead to rights and yet he hangs on to the lie for dear life. Also, some of his lies seem to have no real purpose, thus the question as to him being a pathological liar.

Yes - the Putin lie was designed to make him seem like he has inside knowledge of things that even our govt doesn't know.  The Popeyes robbery lie = tried to show he was credible on street experience and knew gun violence personally.

All kidding aside - I think he's been sheltered for 3 decades in the walls of academia/medical world.  He's head of neurosurgery at johns hopkins means for 60 hours a week, people with PhDs and MBAs are kissing his ass for funding. 

In the "real world", whether its trump doing business or senators debating, you are challenged and 'talked back to' now and then.  When a person is surrounded by yes men for 20 to 30 years, they are able to 'make up tales' all the time, with nothing but applause from those sucking up.

In the real world, you make up some shit about popeyes robbery, it gets checked out.  In ben carson's medical world, nobody checks that stuff.  He's still living 30 years ago when you can't actually access police records quickly.   He's still living 30 years ago when you could tell a room of religious zealots some silly putin or pyramids story, and it never reaches mainstream world.

Carson is out of touch.

[Dos Equis]

Hillary No Shoo-In for 2016

Image: Hillary No Shoo-In for 2016 (AP)
By Scott Rasmussen   |   Friday, 27 Nov 2015

For much of 2015, the political questions concerning former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have been whether or not she can hold the lead. She entered the year the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She was, in fact, the most dominant front-runner since, well, Hillary Clinton eight years ago.
   
And that's what made some of her supporters nervous. She never should have lost that lead to then-Sen. Barack Obama. But she did.
   
Clinton appears to have learned from that experience. Despite a shaky start to the formal campaign and the self-induced email debacle, she has held onto her dominant lead all year. Next summer, Clinton is almost certain to become the first woman ever nominated for president by a major political party.

At that point, though, the challenge for Hillary Clinton is likely to be much different. Rather than worrying about whether she can hold the lead and run out the clock, the question will become whether or not she can pull off a come-from-behind victory.

In all likelihood, the Republican nominee will start off the general election season as the favorite.
   
That perspective may sound crazy to Clinton supporters and many in the D.C. media club. They see the Democratic front-runner as obviously experienced and qualified in contrast to the leading GOP candidates.
   
But fundamentals drive elections more than candidates do. The most important measure of the political climate is the president's job approval rating. At the moment, President Obama's ratings are in the low-to-mid 40s. That's a danger ground, suggesting that he will be a drag on his party's nominee.

At the moment, it's a problem for Clinton rather than a crisis. But if the president's ratings go much lower, it will become extraordinarily difficult for the Democrats to retain the White House.

On top of that, consumer confidence has just fallen to its lowest level in over a year. An index of manufacturing sentiment is now at the lowest level in more than two years. The country may not be in a recession, but the economic recovery is anemic.

And then there's the foreign policy disarray in the wake of the Paris attacks. Foreign policy generally has only a modest impact on elections, and 2016 is not likely to be any different.

However, to the degree that national security becomes an issue at all, it's a double whammy for Clinton. First, because voters tend to trust Republicans more than Democrats on national security issues. Second, because any national security claims will turn Clinton's experience as secretary of state from a positive to a negative.
   
Finally, Clinton's very success at clearing the Democratic field is likely to haunt her general election campaign. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Gov. Martin O'Malley are not really pushing her the way she pushed Barack Obama eight years ago.

Obama became a much better debater and candidate because of Clinton. The current president also gained stature merely by defeating her. Clinton will enjoy no such advantage.
   
Obviously, there is a lot of time before Election Day in Nov. 2016. Anything could happen. It's possible that the GOP could self-destruct and split in two, or that Donald Trump could run as an independent candidate. But barring such a lucky break, Hillary Clinton will likely begin her fall campaign as an underdog.

http://www.newsmax.com/ScottRasmussen/hillary-2016-president/2015/11/27/id/703690/#ixzz3sjPpvLrf

[Dos Equis]

The negative numbers are telling.  Astronomically high for Hillary and Trump.

December 2, 2015 - Bump For Trump As Carson Fades In Republican Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Clinton, Sanders Surge In Matchups With GOP Leaders

Additional Trend Information

Eleven months before the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump is the undisputed leader in the Republican field, as Dr. Ben Carson, in a virtual tie with Trump four weeks ago, drops to third place, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today.

On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton widens her lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont to 60 - 30 percent, compared to 53 - 35 percent in a November 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley has 2 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

Trump gets 27 percent of Republican voters today, with 17 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, 16 percent each for Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and 5 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

Last month, Trump had 24 percent, with 23 percent for Carson.

Among Republicans, 26 percent of voters say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 21 percent who would not back Bush.

"It doesn't seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the 'political correctness' is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, 'This could be the guy.'

"Secretary Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders have to be hoping Trump is the GOP's guy."

American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans:

47 - 41 percent over Trump, compared to 46 - 43 percent November 4;
Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio's 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Rubio lead last month;
Clinton tops Cruz 47 - 42 percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton's 43 percent last month;
Clinton at 46 percent to Carson's 43 percent compared to Carson's 50 - 40 percent lead last month.
Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans:

Topping Trump 49 - 41 percent;
Getting 44 percent to Rubio's 43 percent;
Beating Cruz 49 - 39 percent;
Leading Carson 47 - 41 percent.

Clinton has a negative 44 - 51 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are:

Negative 35 - 57 percent for Trump;
40 - 33 percent for Carson;
44 - 31 percent for Sanders;
37 - 28 percent for Rubio;
33 - 33 percent for Cruz.

American voters say 60 - 36 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Trump is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 59 - 35 percent. Sanders gets the best honesty grades among top candidates, 59 - 28 percent, with Carson at 53 - 34 percent, Rubio at 49 - 33 percent and Cruz at 43 - 39 percent.

All American voters say 63 - 32 percent, including 69 - 27 percent among independent voters, that Clinton would have a good chance of beating the Republican nominee in a head-to- head matchup.

Voters are divided 46 - 49 percent on whether Trump would have a good chance of beating the Democratic nominee, with independent voters divided 47 - 48 percent.

From November 23 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,453 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 672 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 573 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307

[Dos Equis]

Hillary and Trump have serious trust issues with potential voters.

Quinnipiac Poll: Trump Gets Bump as Carson Drops to 3rd, Rubio Up

Image: Quinnipiac Poll: Trump Gets Bump as Carson Drops to 3rd, Rubio Up (Getty Images)
By Loren Gutentag   |   Wednesday, 02 Dec 2015

For four weeks Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson were in a virtual tie in the polls, however, a new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows Trump as the undisputed front-runner, Carson dropping to third place, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio stealing second place.

According to the poll:

Donald Trump, 27 percent;
Marco Rubio, 17 percent;
Ben Carson, 16 percent;
Ted Cruz, 16 percent;
Jeb Bush, 5 percent;

No other GOP candidate registers with more than 3 percent in the poll.

“Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR.  The Doctor sinks.  The Donald soars.  The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, ‘This could be the guy,'" said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

He added, “It doesn’t seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the ‘political correctness’ is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar.”

However, in terms of favorability, the poll shows that although Ben Carson has the highest favorability rating with 67 percent favorable, his 13 percent unfavorable brings his net score below Rubio's. Rubio's net favorability rating is the highest with 66 percent favorable and 8 percent unfavorable.

And, while 26 percent say they definitely will not vote for Trump, 59 percent of voters said he is not honest or trustworthy while 35 percent believe that he is.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the clear front-runner and has even widened her lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by 30 points.

According to the poll:

Hillary Clinton, 60 percent;
Bernie Sanders, 30 percent;
Martin O'Malley, 2 percent;
Undecided, 6 percent;

Despite Hillary's lead, 60 percent of voters believe that she is not honest or trustworthy and 36 percent say she is. Among Democrats, 73 percent say she's honest and trustworthy while only 7 percent of Republicans agree.

Overall, 28 percent of voters say that Bernie Sanders is not honest or trustworthy and 59 percent believe that he is. Among Democrats, 78 percent say he's honest and trustworthy while only 39 percent of Republicans say the same.

In hypothetical head-to-head match ups:

Clinton edges Rubio 45 to 44 points;
Clinton leads Trump by 6 points;
Clinton leads Cruz by 5 points;
Clinton leads Carson by 3 points;

The leads are even wider in hypothetical head-to-head match ups with Sanders:

Sanders is behind Rubio by 1 point;
Sanders leads Trump by 8 points;
Sanders leads Cruz by 10 points;
Sanders leads Carson by 6 points;

The Quinnipiac University survey of 1,453 voters nationwide was conducted between. Nov. 23 and Nov. 30 and has a 2.6 percentage point margin of error. The poll of 672 Republicans has a 3.8 percentage point margin of error, and the survey of 573 Democrats has a 4.1 percentage point margin of error.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Quinnipiac-poll-Trump-Carson/2015/12/02/id/704182/#ixzz3tBLgMdlE

[240 is Back]

Hillary and Trump have serious trust issues with potential voters.

If Trump wins, Hilary will have a massive advantage in the general election.

Put her up against Cruz or Rubio, and she looks like shit, and they look trustworthy.
Put her up against Trump, and it's a non-factor.

[Dos Equis]

Fox News Poll: Trump, Clinton dominate primary races in South Carolina
By Dana Blanton 
Published December 09, 2015 
FoxNews.com

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have commanding leads in the race for their parties' nominations in South Carolina, according to the latest Fox News poll.

It’s no wonder Trump is leading.  He’s ahead among both those who prioritize national security and economic issues.  He’s the top pick among voters on the two most important candidate qualities -- strong leader and, to a lesser degree, honest and trustworthy.  Plus, he’s considered the most electable -- by a lot.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS

Here are the numbers:

Trump leads with 35 percent among South Carolina Republican primary voters.  Ben Carson gets 15 percent, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio receive 14 percent each.

All other candidates are in single digits, including Jeb Bush at 5 percent.

The poll, released Wednesday, was conducted Saturday through Tuesday evenings.  Trump made provocative remarks Monday about barring Muslims from entering the United States.

It looks like his comments help him in South Carolina.  Support for Trump increased eight points after his statement -- from 30 percent the first two nights vs. 38 percent the last two nights.  The shift is within the margin of sampling error.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw says, “There are enough people in the last two nights of the sample to question the widespread assumption that Trump’s comments will hurt him among GOP primary voters.”  Shaw conducts the Fox News Poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.

There’s no gender gap in Trump’s support, as about a third of men (37 percent) and women (32 percent) GOP voters make him their first choice.

Younger voters are less enthusiastic about The Donald.  Twenty-nine percent of those under 45 back him compared to 38 percent of those ages 45 and over.  Moreover, 30 percent of those under 45 say they would never vote for Trump.

The favorites among white evangelical Christians voting in the GOP primary are Trump (34 percent), Carson (18 percent), Cruz (15 percent) and Rubio (12 percent).

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham gets rough treatment from those who know him best.  Only two percent of his home-state voters support him in the nomination race.  And nearly one in five (18 percent) say they would never support him for the GOP nomination.

The top “never” support candidates are Trump, who has 24 percent saying they wouldn’t back him, and Bush, at 19 percent.

Among those part of the Tea Party movement, 28 percent say they would never back Bush or Graham.

National security is the most important issue for GOP primary voters in deciding their vote.  Thirty-nine percent feel that way compared with 24 percent who prioritize economic issues.  Some 16 percent say immigration issues will be most important and 6 percent say social issues.

Trump holds a wide lead among voters who say national security is their top issue.  He receives 32 percent -- twice the support for Carson, Cruz and Rubio, who each get 16 percent among national security voters.

And those who prioritize economic issues back the same four candidates:  Trump (32 percent), Rubio (14 percent), Carson (12 percent) and Cruz (12 percent).

At the same time, the poll shows national security is an area of vulnerability for Trump:  25 percent say he is the “most qualified” Republican to handle the issue, closely followed by Cruz at 18 percent.  Another 11 percent pick Rubio.  Only 6 percent say Carson.

Compare that to the 48 percent landslide Trump gets when GOP primary voters are asked which Republican candidate is “most qualified” to handle the economy.  No other candidate even garners double digits on this measure.  The next closest are Bush and Cruz at 9 percent each, followed by Rubio at 8 percent.

Strong leadership is the top trait GOP primary voters want in their party’s nominee (26 percent), closely followed by being honest and trustworthy (22 percent).  Those characteristics outrank nominating someone who would shake things up in Washington (16 percent), have true conservative values (14 percent) and beat the Democrat (10 percent).

Voters who say strong leadership is the most important trait are most likely to support Trump by a wide 23-point margin.  He receives 36 percent among this group, followed by Cruz at 13 percent, Rubio at 12 percent and Carson at 11 percent.

While Trump still tops the list among those who prioritize honesty, it’s by a narrower 4-point margin: Trump (24 percent), Carson (20 percent), Rubio (13 percent) and Cruz (12 percent).

GOP primary voters think Trump is the Republican most likely to beat Clinton in the general election next year.  Some 42 percent feel that way.  Next is Rubio at 14 percent.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, there’s really no competition for the former secretary of state in the Palmetto State.  Clinton trounces Bernie Sanders by a margin of 65-21 percent, while Martin O’Malley garners just 3 percent among South Carolina Democratic primary voters.

Clinton’s support is highest among women (72 percent) and black voters (82 percent). Just over half of men also back her (54 percent). White voters are about as likely to support Sanders (37 percent) as Clinton (39 percent).

Overall, there are striking differences in the mood of partisans in South Carolina.

Nearly 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters are satisfied with how things are going in the country today (59 percent).  Almost all of their Republican counterparts, 89 percent, are unhappy with the way things are going.

In addition, a majority of Republican voters (61 percent) says it feels like the economy is getting worse for their family, while over half of Democrats say things are getting better (53 percent).

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted December 5-8, 2015, by telephone (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among a random sample of 801 South Carolina voters selected from a statewide voter file.  Results for the 364 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points and for the 437 likely Republican primary voters it is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/09/fox-news-poll-trump-clinton-dominate-primary-races-in-south-carolina.html?intcmp=hpbt4

[240 is Back]

It's okay if trump wins Iowa, New Hampshire and now, south Carolina.   Magically, some people still think trump will somehow lose.

[Dos Equis]

NBC Poll: Clinton Would Trounce Trump But Lose to Rubio, Carson
by CARRIE DANN
DEC 14 2015,

Hillary Clinton would defeat Ted Cruz and trounce Donald Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head general election matchup, but she would lose to Marco Rubio or Ben Carson, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds.

Clinton, who leads the Democratic primary field by nearly 20 points, would have a strong advantage over Trump with independent voters but would be bested by the three other Republicans with the important swing group.

The poll, conducted Dec. 6-9, shows Clinton getting the support of 56 percent of Democrats, compared to 37 percent who back Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and 4 percent who back former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.

Against Trump, the Democratic front-runner would win 50 percent to 40 percent. Among independents, she would capture 43 percent of the vote, compared to 36 percent for Trump. Among Hispanics, Clinton would get 69 percent of the vote, compared to just 24 percent for Trump.

And against Cruz, who has surged in recent polls in the important early state of Iowa, Clinton would win with 48 percent to Cruz's 45 percent, though that's within the poll's margin of error of plus-minus 3.36 percentage points.

Despite losing significant support in the NBC/WSJ poll among Republican primary voters, Carson, a former neurosurgeon, still performs competitively against the former secretary of state. He would get 47 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup, compared to Clinton's 46 percent. His strong showing would largely be fueled by independent voters, who made up about 11 percent of the poll's sample of registered voters. They would back Carson by double digits, 48 percent to 34 percent.

Rubio, a senator from Florida, would fare the best overall against Clinton, winning a head-to-head clash 48 percent to 45 percent (also within the poll's margin of error.) Among independents, his margin of victory would be 44 percent to her 37 percent.

Among Hispanics, Rubio would get 36 percent of the vote, compared to Clinton's 59 percent.

Rubio would also perform best with female voters out of the top GOP contenders, capturing 44 percent to Clinton's 51 percent. That's compared to Trump's dismal showing of 33 percent to Clinton's 57 percent.

The NBC/WSJ poll of 1000 adults was conducted December 6-9. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.36 percentage points.

More results from the new NBC/WSJ poll will be released later on Monday, December 14.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-poll-clinton-would-trounce-trump-lose-rubio-carson-n478676

[Dos Equis]

CNN Poll: Rubio, Cruz Beat Hillary

Image: CNN Poll: Rubio, Cruz Beat Hillary  (Wire Services Photo)   
By Greg Richter     
Wednesday, 23 Dec 2015
 
A new CNN/ORC poll shows Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton maintaining her commanding lead, though she would face a challenge from the top three Republicans if a general election were held today.

Clinton's national support had been waning, but she was able to boost her numbers following Saturday's Democratic debate.

 The poll talked to registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic.
•Hillary Clinton: 50 percent
•Bernie Sanders 34 percent
•Martin O'Malley 3 percent

Here's how Clinton fares in head-to-head matchups with the top three Republicans among registered voters:
 •Hillary Clinton has 49 percent against Donald Trump at 47 percent
•Hillary Clinton has 46 percent against Ted Cruz at 48 percent
•Hillary Clinton has 46 percent against Marco Rubio at 49 percent

 The poll was conducted by phone December 17-21 and talked to 1,018 adults. The margin of error for the entire sample was plus-or-minus 3 percentage points. The margin for the 414 registered Democrats or Democratic leaning independents is plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/poll-marco-rubio-ted-cruz-beat/2015/12/23/id/706984/#ixzz3vC58uZ6a

[polychronopolous]

CNN Poll: Rubio, Cruz Beat Hillary

Image: CNN Poll: Rubio, Cruz Beat Hillary  (Wire Services Photo)   
By Greg Richter     
Wednesday, 23 Dec 2015
 
A new CNN/ORC poll shows Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton maintaining her commanding lead, though she would face a challenge from the top three Republicans if a general election were held today.

Clinton's national support had been waning, but she was able to boost her numbers following Saturday's Democratic debate.

 The poll talked to registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic.
•Hillary Clinton: 50 percent
•Bernie Sanders 34 percent
•Martin O'Malley 3 percent

Here's how Clinton fares in head-to-head matchups with the top three Republicans among registered voters:
 •Hillary Clinton has 49 percent against Donald Trump at 47 percent
•Hillary Clinton has 46 percent against Ted Cruz at 48 percent
•Hillary Clinton has 46 percent against Marco Rubio at 49 percent

 The poll was conducted by phone December 17-21 and talked to 1,018 adults. The margin of error for the entire sample was plus-or-minus 3 percentage points. The margin for the 414 registered Democrats or Democratic leaning independents is plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/poll-marco-rubio-ted-cruz-beat/2015/12/23/id/706984/#ixzz3vC58uZ6a

I'll keep saying it until I'm blue in the face, "She is a very weak candidate and very vulnerable come next autumn"

[Dos Equis]

I'll keep saying it until I'm blue in the face, "She is a very weak candidate and very vulnerable come next autumn"

Her dishonesty poll numbers are off the charts.  And people don't like her. 

That said, the MSM is a powerful tool that will compensate for problems with likeability and lack of integrity.  Just look at how much cover she is getting.  I just looked a compilation of some of her greatest hits.   The sniper fire lie was pretty egregious.  But you will not see the MSM questioning her integrity when she becomes the nominee.

   

[polychronopolous]

Her dishonesty poll numbers are off the charts.  And people don't like her. 

That said, the MSM is a powerful tool that will compensate for problems with likeability and lack of integrity.  Just look at how much cover she is getting.  I just looked a compilation of some of her greatest hits.   The sniper fire lie was pretty egregious.  But you will not see the MSM questioning her integrity when she becomes the nominee.

   

Her pandering and phoniness has been off the charts here recently.

She is currently receiving some blowback for trying to portray herself as "just like your Hispanic grandmother" 

[240 is Back]

Luckily for hi lady, she probably doesn't have to run against Rubio or cruz. 

Republicans love trump for his lack of filter.  Presidents don't need filters, right?

[whork]

She is a lying girl thats for sure.

[Dos Equis]

Tip for nominees: Get a younger VP
By Sophie Tatum, CNN
Sun December 27, 2015

The Republican and Democratic nominations are both undecided, but it's not too early to consider running mates
"I do think that the generational box for in the Democratic Party has to be checked as well," Donna Brazile said

(CNN)The Republican and Democratic nominations are both undecided, but it's not too early to consider running mates.

Sunday morning on CNN's "State of the Union" host Jake Tapper queried panelists about who could end up as understudies.

CNN political commentator Donna Brazile emphasized one need for a Democratic ticket headed by either Hillary Clinton, 68, or Bernie Sanders, 74.

"I do think that the generational box for in the Democratic Party has to be checked," Brazile said.

Clinton and Sanders have both attempted to tap into a more youthful voter pool, with backing, respectively, from pop singer Katy Perry and Atlanta-based rapper Killer Mike.

A young vice-presidential choice could help, SOTU panelists agreed. After all, GOP front-runner Donald Trump is 69. GOP contender Ben Carson is 64 and Jeb Bush is 62.

A younger Republican nominee could pose a serious challenge to Hillary Clinton, said CNN political commentator Ana Navarro. She cited Sens. Ted Cruz, 45 and Marco Rubio, 44, as potential beneficiaries of the age issue. Either could pose a "You're yesterday, we're tomorrow," argument against the opponents old enough to be their parents.

"And elections are about tomorrow," Tapper said.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/27/politics/democrats-generational-gap/index.html

[Dos Equis]

Hypothetical head-to-head matchups

Clinton currently ties or trails the Republicans in each of the possible 2016 matchups tested.

Rubio (50-41 percent) and Cruz (50-43 percent) perform best against the presumptive Democratic nominee.  Rubio has a nine-point advantage and Cruz is up by seven.

Trump tops Clinton by three points (47-44 percent) and Bush ties at 44 percent each.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/01/09/fox-news-poll-trump-cruz-top-gop-race-nationally.html

[Dos Equis]

Sanders: Trump a 'Pathological Liar'

Image: Sanders: Trump a 'Pathological Liar'
By Greg Richter   
Sunday, 17 Jan 2016

Bernie Sanders has said during his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination that GOP front-runner Donald Trump is "pathological liar," and was asked Sunday on "Face the Nation" to provide examples.

"There are many," the Vermont Senator said. "He goes around telling people that I want to raise their taxes by 90 percent, that's a lie. I've never said that. It's not true."

Sanders also cited Trump's announcement speech where critics say he he called all Mexicans rapists and murderers, though Trump says he was not referring to all Mexicans and was saying only that the Mexician government was sending its criminal element across the border.

"And even worse, he goes around saying I, Donald Trump, I saw on television thousands of Muslims celebrating on 9/11 when the Twin Towers went down," Sanders said. "That's a lie. There is no evidence, there was never anything on television. It never happened. He has not apologized. He keeps saying it. That is pathological liar."

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/sanders-trump-pathological-liar/2016/01/17/id/709812/#ixzz3xcZupmkB

[240 is Back]

Sanders: Trump a 'Pathological Liar' celebrating on 9/11 when the Twin Towers went down," Sanders said. "That's a lie. There is no evidence, there was never anything on television. It never happened. He has not apologized. He keeps saying it. That is pathological liar."

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/sanders-trump-pathological-liar/2016/01/17/id/709812/#ixzz3xcZupmkB

Bernie, the socialist bastard, is 100% correct.

Trump did NOT see thousands of arabs in jersey city celebrating.  He didn't.  You can try to piece together "well, here's a claim" and "this cop saw six of them" but trump's statement is false.  Trump does the "stretch the truth a ton" thing...  Like Bill OReilly.   Repubs need a daddy, so they're okay with it.

[Dos Equis]

This is from July 9, 2015.  I don't know if it would be this bad, but she likely beats Trump badly, unless she is indicted, in which case she still probably wins a close one. 

Projection shows Clinton defeats Donald Trump 419-119 on Electoral College map


As seen above, Hillary Clinton would dominate Donald Trump on the Electoral College map
Screenshot by Ryan Witt

Donald Trump announced his presidential campaign June 16, and according to a poll released yesterday from Public Policy Polling Trump is now leading all Republican candidates in North Carolina. A CNN/ORC poll has Trump second among all Republican candidates nationally, and a Quinnipiac University poll has Trump placing second in the key state of Iowa. Suddenly analysts are beginning to consider the possibility that Trump really could win the Republican Party nomination for president. If so, as the above Electoral College map shows, Democrats may be elated. According to the most recent polling available, Trump would lose against Clinton 119-419 in a theoretical Electoral College matchup. Follow me on Facebook and Twitter for more Electoral College and polling updates throughout the 2016 presidential election.

So how is this projections made?

First, the projection takes into account how Democrats and Republicans performed in the last three presidential elections. While past results do not always indicate future performance, the recent presidential elections give us a fairly good idea of how the demographics of each state favor or disfavor each party. More emphasis is put on the last presidential election in 2012 since that date is obviously more recent and, therefore, more likely to be accurate.

Second, trends for each state are considered. Trends are determined by looking at the last three presidential elections and also the changing demographics of each state.

Finally, the projection also accounts for any polling done within that state and the national polls done thus far. Unfortunately there are no polls available showing how Clinton would perform against Trump in individual states. What is available is national polls which show Clinton performing very strong against Trump. See below:

Clinton 59% v. Trump 35% (CNN Opinion Research 6/28)
Clinton 51% v. Trump 34% (Fox News 6/23)
Clinton 50% v. Trump 32% (Quinnipiac 5/26)

The Real Clear Politics of average of the three polls gives Clinton a 19.6 point lead over Trump. In comparison, Real Clear Politics average gives Clinton only a 3.8 point lead over Senator Rand Paul.

In 2012 President Obama won the Electoral College 332-206 despite only beating Mitt Romney by 3 points nationally. The last time a candidate won by double digits nationally was Ronald Reagan in 1984, who won by 18 points against Walter Mondale. In that election Reagan won the Electoral College 525-13.

Using the national polls and past results here is what a Trump versus Clinton Electoral College map would look like. This projection is actually generous to Trump, assuming he would only lose to Clinton by 14 points nationally, and that he would not suffer from the "bandwagon effect" in which voters flood to the candidate they perceive as the "winning candidate" if polls are lopsided leading up to an election.

Safe States for Clinton

State, Electoral Votes, 04 Result, 08 Result, 12 Result

California (55) –(D) 54%-44%, (D) 61%-37%, 37%, (D) 60%-37%

Colorado (9) - (R) 52%-47%, (D) 54%-45%, (D) 51%-46%

Connecticut (7) – (D) 54%-44%, (D) 61%-38%, (D) 58%-41%

Delaware (3) – (D) 53%-46%, (D) 62%-37%, (D) 59%-40%

Florida (29) - (R) 52%-49%, (D) 51%-48%, (D) 50%-49%

Hawaii (4) – (D) 54%-45%, (D) 72%-27%, (D) 71%-28%

Illinois (20) – (D) 55%-45%, (D) 62%-37%, (D) 58%-41%

Iowa (6) - (R) 50%-49%, (D) 54%-44%, (D) 52%-46%

Maine (4) – (D) 54%-45%, (D) 58%-40%, (D) 56%-41%

Maryland (10) – (D) 56%-43%, (D) 62%-37%, (D) 62%-37%

Massachusetts (11) – (D) 62%-37%, (D) 62%-36%, (D) 61%-38%

Michigan (16) – (D) 51%-48%, (D) 57%-41%, (D) 54%-45%

Minnesota (10) – (D) 51%-48%, (D) 54%-44%, (D) 53%-45%

Nevada (6) – (R) 51%-48%, (D) 55%-43%, (D) 52%-46%

New Hampshire (4) - (D) 50%-49%, (D) 54%-45%, (D) 52%-46%

New Mexico (5) – (R) 50%-49%, (D) 57%-42%, (D) 53%-43%

New Jersey (14) – (D) 53%-46%, (D) 57%-42%, (D) 58%-41%

New York (29) – (D) 58%-40%, (D) 63%-36%, (D) 63%-35%

North Carolina (15) - (R) 56%-44%, (D) 50%-49%, (R) 50%-48%

Ohio (18) - (R) 51%-49%, (D) 52%-47%, (D) 51%-48%

Oregon (7) – (D) 52%-47%, (D) 57%-40%, (D) 54%-42%

Pennsylvania (20) - (D) 51%-49%, (D) 55%-44%, (D) 52%-47%

Rhode Island (4) – (D) 59%-39%, (D) 63%-35%, (D) 63%-35%

Vermont (3) – (D) 59%-39%, (D) 68%-30%, (D) 67%-31%

Virginia (13) – (R) 54%-46, (D) 53%-46%, (D) 51%-47%

Washington (12) – (D) 53%-46%, (D) 58%-41%, (D) 57%-41%

Wisconsin (10) - (D) 50%-49%, (D) 56%-42%, (D) 53%-46%

Total Electoral Votes: 353

Analysis: As shown here a Trump versus Clinton matchup would really be over before it even began. By simply holding on to the states that Obama won in 2008 Clinton would already have over 270 votes, but given the strength of her polling against Trump she adds on to Obama's safe state territory with North Carolina.

Safe Trump States

State, Electoral Votes, 04 Result, 08 Result, 12 Result, Most Recent Poll

Alabama (9) – (R) 63%-37%, (R) 60%-39%, (R) 61%-38%

Arkansas (6) - (R) 54%-45%, (R) 59%-39%, (R) 61%-37%

Idaho (4) - (R) 69%-30%, (R) 62%-36%, (R) 65%-33%

Kansas (6) - (R) 62%-37%, (R) 57%-42%, (R) 60%-38%

Kentucky ( - (R) 60%-40%, (R) 57%-41%, (R) 60%-38%

Nebraska (5) - (R) 66%-33%, (R) 56%-42%, (R) 60%-38%

North Dakota (3) - (R) 63%-36%, (R) 53%-45%, (R) 58%-39%

Oklahoma (7) - (R) 66%-34%, (R) 66%-34%, (R) 67%-33%

South Dakota (3) - (R) 60%-38%, (R) 53%-45%, (R) 58%-40%

Tennessee (11) - (R) 57%-43%, (R) 57%-42%, (R) 59%-39%

Utah (6) - (R) 73%-26%, (R) 63%-34%, (R) 73%-25%

West Virginia (5) - (R) 56%-43%, (R) 56%-43%, (R) 62%-36%

Wyoming (3) - (R) 69%-29%, (R) 65%-33%, (R) 69%-28%

Total Electoral Votes: 73

Analysis: Given a 14 point loss nationally to Clinton, Trump would only be assured of states that Mitt Romney by a very large margin in 2012. These states cover a vast amount of territory, but tend to have very few voters and therefore very few Electoral College votes.

Swing States

State, Electoral Votes, 04 Result, 08 Result, 12 Result

Alaska (3) – (R) 61%-36%, (R) 59%-38%, (R) 55%-41%, Projected Clinton Win

Arizona (11) - (R) 55%-44%, (R) 54%-45%, (R) 54%-45%, Projected Clinton Win

Georgia (16) - (R) 58%-41%, (R) 52%-47%, (R) 53%-45%, Projected Clinton Win

Indiana (11) - (R) 60%-39%, (D) 50%-49%, (R) 54%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

Louisiana (8 ) - (R) 57%-42%, (R) 59%-40%, (R) 58%-41%, Projected Trump Win

Mississippi (6) - (R) 60%-40%, (R) 56%-43%, (R) 55%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

Missouri (10) - (R) 53%-46%, (R) 49%-49%, (R) 54%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

South Carolina (9) - (R) 58%-41%, (R) 54%-45%, (R) 55%-44%, Projected Clinton Win

Texas (38) - (R) 61%-38%, (R) 56%-44%, (R) 57%-41%, Projected Trump Win

Analysis: The strength of Clinton versus Trump really shows up in the "swing state" analysis. States that Republican can usually count on like Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina all the sudden become competitive if given Trump's large deficit nationally. Trump is projected to hold on to Texas and Louisiana by slim margin, but otherwise Clinton takes states that Romney won by less than 14 points in 2008, giving Clinton an even bigger lead. The final result after adding up all the Clinton wins is 419 electoral

http://www.examiner.com/article/projection-shows-clinton-defeats-donald-trump-419-119-on-electoral-college-map

[Dos Equis]

Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio Get Des Moines Register Endorsement
by Danny Freeman 
Jan 23, 2016

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Marco Rubio Saturday received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, Iowa's biggest newspaper, just eight days ahead of the state's caucuses.

In endorsing Clinton in the Democratic primary, the paper's editorial board writes, "in the final analysis, Iowa Democrats will have to choose between the lofty idealism of Bernie Sanders and the down-to-earth pragmatism of Hillary Clinton. ... Clinton has demonstrated that she is a thoughtful, hardworking public servant who has earned the respect of leaders at home and abroad."

Picking Rubio on the Republican side, the editorial board writes that the GOP has "the opportunity to define their party's future in this election. They could choose anger, pessimism and fear. Or they could take a different path," adding, "we endorse him because he represents his party's best hope."

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/hillary-clinton-marco-rubio-get-des-moines-register-endorsement-n502976

[240 is Back]

Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio Get Des Moines Register Endorsement

imagine a GOp primary where Walker, Cruz, Rand and Rubio are all making their case as to how to best fix America.

Not a GOP primary where Trump is threatening to sue Cruz for being an illegal, where Rubio is getting bottled water, where Rand, jeb, Walker are all history...

Obamacare isn't an issue.  SPending isnt' an issue.  Economy isn't an issue.  No, the big issue in 2016 is "greatness".   Sorry people, but the USA is pretty great today.  And yes, a smart republican with some spending cuts WOULD make it greater.  but all these "change for changes sake" people are ready to go back to square 1 when that isn't necessary.  Get a calm, collected republican to tweak things... don't bring in a lifelong liberal who radically changed parties and wants to start fires in every room he enters.  Hire a nurse, not a fcking stripper, America.

[Dos Equis]

Stossel: Why Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton are 2016's likely nominees
By John Stossel, Maxim Lott  Published February 07, 2016 
FoxNews.com

FILE -- Senator Marco Rubio (AP)

Donald Trump is way ahead in the polls for the Republican nomination. 

Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire Primary on Tuesday, and he’s close to Hillary Clinton in national polls. 

But neither Trump nor Sanders is likely to win!

In our new Fox News TV special, “Tech Revolution” at 8 and 11 pm ET Sunday night, we’ll explain why the better way to predict winners is to look at betting odds. They give Marco Rubio more than a 50 percent chance of winning the nomination, and Hillary Clinton an 80 percent chance.

Betting odds have a better track record than polls or pundits. They come from people who put their own money on the line, rather than people who just mouth off.

George Mason University economist Robin Hanson puts it this way:  Imagine you’re in a bar…

“You're pontificating -- and somebody challenges you and says, ‘want to bet?’ All of us, as soon as somebody says ‘want to bet?’ -- we pause. And go, ‘do I really believe that?’”

You are more careful when you bet.  If you aren’t, you lose money.  Think the odds above are wrong?  Put your money where your mouth is.     

American politicians banned most political prediction markets, but they’ve allowed a few, like PredictIt.org.

PreditctIt’s odds are a little off because bettors may not trade more than $850 per candidate. The odds on bigger unrestricted markets, like England’s Betfair.com, are more informative.   Because Betfair posts those odds in confusing gambling formulas, the two of us simplify them for Americans here: ElectionBettingOdds.com.

These odds update every five minutes.

Prediction markets like Betfair are not run by sketchy bookies.  They are businesses that operate the way stock markets do – people buy and sell “shares” that pay out based on whether a candidate is successful. Today, for about 10 cents, you can buy a share of Trump. If he becomes president, you win a dollar.     

These odds have a good track record. In November, Ben Carson surged to first place in polls, but bettors knew he would fade--Betfair had him at just 9 percent. Now his odds are below 1 percent.

Betting odds do sometimes fail: Until the evening of the Iowa caucus, bettors thought Donald Trump would win.

But they still beat polls and pundits. Part of the reason they’re good is the “wisdom of crowds.”

Some people betting may be fools making bad bets -- but enough of them have good information that the whole group of bets is likely to be accurate.  You see this on the TV show “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire.”

Contestants can ask the audience, or an expert.  Experts do pretty well.  They get the answer right 65 percent of the time, but the audience gets it right 91 percent of the time.

Bets on a prediction market called Intrade accurately predicted “American Idol” winners, Oscar winners, and the election results in almost every U.S. state. They even predicted when Saddam Hussein would be captured. 

Sadly, our government said betting is “contrary to the public interest.” It sued Intrade and put them out of business.   We no longer have access to Intrade’s interesting and useful predictions.

Fortunately, a few sites still allow political betting, and the best odds are easily readable at ElectionBettingOdds.com.  And we’ll explain this better on TV Sunday night!

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/02/07/stossel-why-marco-rubio-and-hillary-clinton-are-2016s-likely-nominees.html?intcmp=hpbt2

[Las Vegas]

Kind of fun if you are into the process (people on this board may like it).  It is one superficial thing after the next, though, of course, which is the opposite of what it should be.

This is the middle part of a three-parter on the 2016 candidates.  It spends a little time with each one as they campaign at the Iowa State Fair.