Author Topic: Election 2016  (Read 170370 times)

Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #975 on: November 03, 2016, 08:43:06 AM »
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polychronopolous

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #976 on: November 03, 2016, 09:20:23 AM »
Appreciate all the updates.

These polls today and tomorrow are the most telling (besides the one on Election Day lol)

They are the first ones taken after the Halloween weekend and after the potentially damning second FBI probe was announced so it gives a much better idea of where we are truly at.

Dos Equis

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #977 on: November 03, 2016, 09:40:37 AM »
 :o  Outlier?

Poll: Donald Trump Takes 3-Point Lead in Virginia — 15-Point Swing in Past Month
by MATTHEW BOYLE
2 Nov 2016

NEW YORK CITY, New York — Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has taken the lead in the latest poll out of the battleground state of Virginia, with his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton slipping 15 points in a month.
The Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) poll out on Wednesday afternoon shows that Trump has taken a three-point lead over Clinton in the Old Dominion, inside the poll’s margin of error of 4.57 percent. The survey of 802 Virginians, taken from Oct. 26 through Oct. 30—meaning it was conducted both before and after the FBI announced its reopening of the criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s illicit home brew email server—found Trump at 44 percent and Clinton at 41 percent.

A release from the University notes that Trump had already started closing the gap in Virginia before FBI director James Comey’s announcement, in his letter to Congress, but that Clinton was ahead by a small margin then. It was after the FBI announcement that the bottom dropped out of Clinton’s campaign in Virginia, boosting Trump way over her.

“The HU Center for Public Policy poll was conducted October 26-30, 2016, and at the start of the poll, Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton had a two point lead prior to the release of the email news story breaking on Friday, October 28th,” Hampton University’s CPP said in the release:

After the FBI email news story, the numbers changed dramatically, and following the five day tally, Clinton now trails Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by three percentage points. It must be noted that this poll began on the evening of Wednesday, October 26th and in the two days of data collection before the FBI email news story, the majority of interviews were completed. In that time, the data reflected a slim lead for Clinton over Trump (43% to 42% with 15% undecided). In the three days of data collection after the news, 257 interviews were conducted which reflected a wider Trump lead over Clinton of 48% to 39% with 13% as yet undecided. After all of the numbers from the 5 day poll were added, averaged and weighted, the total puts Trump ahead.

Overall, this is a 15-point swing away from Clinton towards Trump from the most recent previous Hampton University CPP poll conducted back in late September and early October, where Clinton was up 12 points.

A Trump aide told Breitbart News this week that it seems like Virginia is definitely in play. This individual highlighted previous election cycles — Ken Cuccinelli’s run for governor and Ed Gillespie’s run for Senate — where polls underestimated Republican candidates in both cycles.

Now that Trump has pulled into the lead in Virginia, a five-alarm fire alarm is surely going off in Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Brooklyn. In fact, before this poll came back, Clinton’s campaign changed up the candidate’s schedule to deploy her to Michigan—another state that has gone blue in the last several presidential elections but seems to be trending towards Trump—and announced new six-figure ad buys in many blue-leaning states, including Virginia.

If Trump locks down Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, Clinton’s firewall for the White House is significantly diminished, and he is well on his way to becoming the next president of the United States. Trump has already now pulled ahead in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, and more. Winning those, plus the red states and Virginia, would ensure Trump the White House with a comfortable win well above 270 electoral votes and many more states like Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine’s second congressional district, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and more still in play on the chessboard.

The fact that Virginia is back in contention this late in the game, after Clinton previously thought she had it locked in, is particularly embarrassing for her running mate. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), who once served as the state’s governor. Kaine has been a lackluster vice presidential candidate who, after a poor showing in the vice presidential debate against Mike Pence in Virginia, has canceled rallies after generating embarrassing headlines with his small crowd sizes.

Other recent surveys have also shown Virginia tightening, and it is ultimately unclear exactly what will happen on election day. But if past is prologue—looking back in recent years at the polling in both the Cuccinelli and Gillespie races versus the actual results—then this contest is coming down to the wire between Trump and Clinton in the Old Dominion.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/02/poll-donald-trump-takes-3-point-lead-virginia-15-point-swing-away-hillary-clinton/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #978 on: November 03, 2016, 09:40:48 AM »
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/poll-military-back-Donald-Trump/2016/11/02/id/756721/

Where's 240? Military Poll: Troops Backing Trump By 3-to-1 Margin Over Clinton
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Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #979 on: November 03, 2016, 09:42:20 AM »
:o  Outlier?

Poll: Donald Trump Takes 3-Point Lead in Virginia — 15-Point Swing in Past Month
by MATTHEW BOYLE
2 Nov 2016

NEW YORK CITY, New York — Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has taken the lead in the latest poll out of the battleground state of Virginia, with his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton slipping 15 points in a month.
The Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) poll out on Wednesday afternoon shows that Trump has taken a three-point lead over Clinton in the Old Dominion, inside the poll’s margin of error of 4.57 percent. The survey of 802 Virginians, taken from Oct. 26 through Oct. 30—meaning it was conducted both before and after the FBI announced its reopening of the criminal investigation into Hillary Clinton’s illicit home brew email server—found Trump at 44 percent and Clinton at 41 percent.

A release from the University notes that Trump had already started closing the gap in Virginia before FBI director James Comey’s announcement, in his letter to Congress, but that Clinton was ahead by a small margin then. It was after the FBI announcement that the bottom dropped out of Clinton’s campaign in Virginia, boosting Trump way over her.

“The HU Center for Public Policy poll was conducted October 26-30, 2016, and at the start of the poll, Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton had a two point lead prior to the release of the email news story breaking on Friday, October 28th,” Hampton University’s CPP said in the release:

After the FBI email news story, the numbers changed dramatically, and following the five day tally, Clinton now trails Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump by three percentage points. It must be noted that this poll began on the evening of Wednesday, October 26th and in the two days of data collection before the FBI email news story, the majority of interviews were completed. In that time, the data reflected a slim lead for Clinton over Trump (43% to 42% with 15% undecided). In the three days of data collection after the news, 257 interviews were conducted which reflected a wider Trump lead over Clinton of 48% to 39% with 13% as yet undecided. After all of the numbers from the 5 day poll were added, averaged and weighted, the total puts Trump ahead.

Overall, this is a 15-point swing away from Clinton towards Trump from the most recent previous Hampton University CPP poll conducted back in late September and early October, where Clinton was up 12 points.

A Trump aide told Breitbart News this week that it seems like Virginia is definitely in play. This individual highlighted previous election cycles — Ken Cuccinelli’s run for governor and Ed Gillespie’s run for Senate — where polls underestimated Republican candidates in both cycles.

Now that Trump has pulled into the lead in Virginia, a five-alarm fire alarm is surely going off in Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Brooklyn. In fact, before this poll came back, Clinton’s campaign changed up the candidate’s schedule to deploy her to Michigan—another state that has gone blue in the last several presidential elections but seems to be trending towards Trump—and announced new six-figure ad buys in many blue-leaning states, including Virginia.

If Trump locks down Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, Clinton’s firewall for the White House is significantly diminished, and he is well on his way to becoming the next president of the United States. Trump has already now pulled ahead in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, and more. Winning those, plus the red states and Virginia, would ensure Trump the White House with a comfortable win well above 270 electoral votes and many more states like Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine’s second congressional district, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and more still in play on the chessboard.

The fact that Virginia is back in contention this late in the game, after Clinton previously thought she had it locked in, is particularly embarrassing for her running mate. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), who once served as the state’s governor. Kaine has been a lackluster vice presidential candidate who, after a poor showing in the vice presidential debate against Mike Pence in Virginia, has canceled rallies after generating embarrassing headlines with his small crowd sizes.

Other recent surveys have also shown Virginia tightening, and it is ultimately unclear exactly what will happen on election day. But if past is prologue—looking back in recent years at the polling in both the Cuccinelli and Gillespie races versus the actual results—then this contest is coming down to the wire between Trump and Clinton in the Old Dominion.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/02/poll-donald-trump-takes-3-point-lead-virginia-15-point-swing-away-hillary-clinton/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social

Jesus! In the past two days that makes Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado (Tied).
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Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #980 on: November 03, 2016, 09:43:57 AM »
Remember that Black Church that was burned down yesterday?

Trump supporters reacted:

http://regated.com/2016/11/trump-supporters-raise-money-church/

"Trump supporters have reached their goal in about thirteen hours, with over $120,000 in combined donations from over 3500 people."

$124k+
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LurkerNoMore

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #981 on: November 03, 2016, 09:52:44 AM »
If Trump wins, it is going to be a hilarious 4 years to follow.

Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #982 on: November 03, 2016, 09:54:16 AM »
If Trump wins, it is going to be a hilarious 4 years to follow.

I've got my chosen song to play as I sit back and watch people meltdown.

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Dos Equis

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #983 on: November 03, 2016, 10:01:13 AM »
Down to 67.6 with Trump edging ahead in Florida.  Projected delegates 296 to 240.8.  According to Silver's current map, if Trump wins NC, NV, and AZ he's in.  Coming down to the wire.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Down to 65.9 percent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #984 on: November 03, 2016, 10:11:01 AM »
I thought McMuffin was pulling 30%+

#Election2016: #Utah 
#Trump 42%, (+11)
#Clinton 31%,
#McMullin 21%
http://tinyurl.com/jslcowj
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Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #985 on: November 03, 2016, 10:12:24 AM »
Down to 65.9 percent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

If Nate would properly give Trump New Hampshire, he'd currently be leading.  :)
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polychronopolous

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #986 on: November 03, 2016, 10:12:55 AM »
Remember that Black Church that was burned down yesterday?

Trump supporters reacted:

http://regated.com/2016/11/trump-supporters-raise-money-church/

"Trump supporters have reached their goal in about thirteen hours, with over $120,000 in combined donations from over 3500 people."

$124k+


Would love to see the current Wisconsin numbers.

Clinton was only up 4 on October 30th

Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #987 on: November 03, 2016, 10:17:00 AM »

Would love to see the current Wisconsin numbers.

Clinton was only up 4 on October 30th

The only poll to come out is the Marquette poll, and is very strange.

Clinton Jumped up to a +6 lead, but it showed that she went from having +12 Independent support to -8 Independent support.

So she lost huge % of independent supporters but gained +2 Total? No. Not a very accurate poll.
They won't give exact demographics either. 
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polychronopolous

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #988 on: November 03, 2016, 10:20:49 AM »
If Nate would properly give Trump New Hampshire, he'd currently be leading.  :)

Nate Silver Bronze or Nate Iron Ore

Yamcha

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #989 on: November 03, 2016, 10:47:05 AM »
Nate Silver Bronze or Nate Iron Ore

New Hampshire (which two polls today show Trump up, +1 & +5) is the tipping point as of now...

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polychronopolous

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #990 on: November 03, 2016, 10:55:08 AM »
New Hampshire (which two polls today show Trump up, +1 & +5) is the tipping point as of now...



That's a really good graph.

polychronopolous

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #991 on: November 03, 2016, 10:57:11 AM »
Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada is going to determine this race.

Soul Crusher

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #992 on: November 03, 2016, 11:33:21 AM »
Independents leaning toward Trump in polls after FBI furor erupts
McCatchy DC ^ | November 3, 2016 | David Lightman
Posted on 11/3/2016, 2:23:06 PM by 2ndDivisionVet

The furor over the FBI probe of Hillary Clinton’s emails is helping Donald Trump among independent voters in key swing states.

In Wisconsin, a state that for months has been seen as safe Democratic turf, a new Marquette Law School poll released Wednesday found a shift in independent voters’ views. Many moved toward Trump after the FBI said Friday it was again probing Clinton’s use of a private email system for government business.

In Florida, a new CNN/ORC survey of Florida voters had Clinton up 2 and Quinnipiac had her up 1. Trump was leading among independent voters, 46-40, Quinnipiac found.

In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac gave Clinton a 4-point edge, while CNN/ORC had her up 5. Clinton was ahead by 4 with independent voters, Quinnpiac said.

In North Carolina, Trump was up 45-38 among independents, Quinnpiac said. Clinton led overall by 3. Quinnipiac’s polls were conducted Thursday through Tuesday....

(Excerpt) Read more at mcclatchydc.com ...


Soul Crusher

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #993 on: November 03, 2016, 11:35:15 AM »
New Hampshire Poll: Trump 48% Crooked 43%
American Research Group ^ | 11/3/2016 | American Research Group
Posted on 11/3/2016, 11:29:51 AM by MountainWalker

The following results are based on 600 completed interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire (209 Republicans, 191 Democrats, and 200 undeclared voters). The interviews were conducted October 31 through November 2, 2016.

The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 600 likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording and responses:

If the election for US President were being held today between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party, for whom would you vote - Clinton, Trump, Johnson, or Stein? (names rotated)

Dos Equis

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #994 on: November 03, 2016, 01:22:45 PM »

Dos Equis

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #995 on: November 03, 2016, 01:23:30 PM »
If Nate would properly give Trump New Hampshire, he'd currently be leading.  :)

He's the only forecaster I really trust.  Deadly accurate. 

Dos Equis

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #996 on: November 03, 2016, 01:33:05 PM »
Nate Silver Bronze or Nate Iron Ore

Do you think there is anyone better at forecasting elections? 

Dos Equis

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #997 on: November 03, 2016, 01:34:42 PM »
Long but good read.

Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

If the race tightens any further, Clinton’s electoral edge is fragile.
By Nate Silver
Nov 1, 2016

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-yes-donald-trump-has-a-path-to-victory/

Dos Equis

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #998 on: November 03, 2016, 01:38:59 PM »
Sabato currently has it Hillary 293 to Trump 214. 

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/

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Re: Election 2016
« Reply #999 on: November 03, 2016, 02:57:45 PM »

 As in some ancient myth, Hillary Clinton, warrior princess, could only succeed in her quest for the kingdom by vanquishing Phallus, the many-headed god of male sexual craziness. First she had to defeat the ghost of Bill Clinton, and that wasn’t so hard because Bill was a popular politician even when his sins were fresh in public memory; now he was old and his sins were too. Then there was the giant, Donald of the tiny hands, and he helped vanquish himself by being too gross and proud of it even for many in his own party. It was all going so well—her campaign was even thinking of venturing into seriously red places like Arizona just for the heck of it—when, a mere 11 days before the election, up popped a ridiculous troll: Anthony Weiner, the irrepressible dick-pic-sending long-disgraced estranged husband of Huma Abedin, Hillary’s aide and friend. For some reason, Abedin and Weiner may have shared a laptop, on which there may have been both Weiner’s sexts, possibly to an underage girl in North Carolina, and e-mails to or from Abedin that may have something to do with Hillary’s State Department correspondence. We know all this because James Comey, the Republican who heads the FBI, ignored Department of Justice protocol and told Congress he was investigating the matter, although he was unable to say what the matter was or when he would know. By the time you read this, the whole thing may have blown over. Or not. Meanwhile, what have we learned so far?

1. If you are a woman in politics, don’t get married.   

2. If you are a married woman in politics, get a divorce. Better still, become a widow. All the perks of marriage and none of the risks.   

3. Whether or not you are in politics, do not share a laptop with your husband, especially if he is a pervert. Believe me, you don’t want to know!   

4. If you are a Democratic president, do not give important jobs to Republicans, especially jobs having to do with manly stuff like law, order, war, and guns. You won’t win brownie points with the opposition; you’ll only reinforce the notion that Democrats are girly men.   


Hillary Clinton is not the first woman politican to have career trouble because of the men in her life. 

I’m not the only person to have noticed that the campaign of the first woman to run for president from a major party has ended up being all about men behaving badly. Just look at Trump’s campaign: former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, accused of manhandling a woman reporter at a rally in March; the unspeakable Roger Ailes, forced out as head of Fox News after multiple women came forward with credible charges of harassment and abuse, now a campaign adviser; Breitbart chairman Stephen Bannon, the current campaign CEO, charged with domestic violence in 1996; surrogates Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich, proud adulterers and huge hypocrites. It’s as if hating women, being accused of sex crimes, and being a terrible husband are job qualifications. (And maybe that’s not the only place it’s a plus on your résumé: After he left the Trump campaign, CNN snapped Lewandowski right up.) But then this is Trump, who boasted about the size of his penis in a primary debate, which has to be a first. Could the clouds of testosterone billowing from the campaign have something to do with the fact that Trump is facing a woman? Just don’t forget who has the dick around here, people! Don’t forget who is the grabber and who is the pussy!
   
It might comfort Hillary Clinton to remember that she is not the first woman politician to have had career trouble because of the men in her life when she got too close to the White House. In 1984, Geraldine Ferraro, Walter Mondale’s running mate and the first woman vice-presidential candidate from a major party, faced an investigation by a House ethics panel stemming from complaints made by the Washington Legal Foundation, a right-wing legal organization, that she had violated a congressional ethics law by not disclosing her husband’s financial information. The inquiry revealed that Ferraro had more money than her regular-Queens-mom image suggested—she wasn’t just a dumb housewife who somehow got into Congress; she was a rich dumb housewife. (After the election, the committee found that while she had indeed violated the law, she had done so unintentionally, and, noting that other members of the House had acted similarly, recommended no censure.) Her campaign was scandalized again when news broke that one of her husband’s companies had rented out space to a porn distributor. (This was before porn was cool.) And then there were the usual misogynist slurs and crudities: Ferraro was ambitious and unqualified, a man-hater and a criminal. Barbara Bush called her “rhymes with rich” and George H.W. Bush, her vice-presidential opponent, boasted after a debate that he had “kicked a little ass.” The all-male Catholic hierarchy treated her with contempt: Unlike her fellow pro-choice Catholic Mario Cuomo, she was pointedly not invited to the Al Smith dinner when her running mate couldn’t attend.   

Since this is my last column before the election, I’m trying mightily to wring something positive out of the sorry fact that in 2016, one candidate is an open enemy of women’s rights and progress and is currently winning the support of a majority of white male voters. Maybe we’ve seen so much sexism because the truth is out: As antifeminists always feared, women really are men’s equal. The phallus is all men have, so they have to wave it whenever they can. Trump the bitch! Hillary has everything a male pol is supposed to have: brains, experience, money, organization, devoted followers, a thick skin, and, yes, stamina. Furthermore, she’s not the only woman who can make that claim. It’s harder these days to dismiss a woman by suggesting she’s ignorant of policy and lacks credentials. So, suddenly, policy is boring, credentials are boring—as so often happens, when women get something, it no longer matters. But power always matters. That’s what Phallus and his sidekicks are afraid of. Go, warrior princess!