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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: a_joker10 on February 12, 2007, 03:11:00 PM
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http://www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf
http://www.fin.gc.ca/ec2006/ec/eca1e.html (http://www.fin.gc.ca/ec2006/ec/eca1e.html)
http://www.iflr.com/?Page=17&ISS=16157&SID=508167 (http://www.iflr.com/?Page=17&ISS=16157&SID=508167)
American 36.8% debt to gdp.
China is around 40.5%
Secondly only to Canada in the G8 and America is fighting in Iraq.
America's economy is still performing very well and its debt to GDP is very manageable.
GWB might be screwing up in Iraq, but the economy is still very strong. Just don't listen to Lou Dobbs.
Hedge should be proud Sweden has the strongest economy out of almost any nation.
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Thanks to his military keynesian, but you know you can't keep that up forever. Eventually, we'll have to deal with the huge budget deficit.
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Eventually, we'll have to deal with the huge budget deficit.
I am 46 and I have been hearing this since I was in High School.
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I am 46 and I have been hearing this since I was in High School.
Good.
Clinton erased the last deficit, who'll do it this time around? If we continue to stay in Iraq then we're gonna continue to spend away.
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So strong that Russia, China, and Malaysia all dropped the dollar this year.
They drop it not because they feel it will collapse.
No, I contend they dropped the dollar because they feel guilt when they earn $!
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So strong that Russia, China, and Malaysia all dropped the dollar this year.
They drop it not because they feel it will collapse.
No, I contend they dropped the dollar because they feel guilt when they earn $!
China pegs its currency to the American dollar, this has not changed.
This is the biggest trade irritant between America and China.
If China quite underfunding their currency China would be screwed and their economy would come close to collapsing.
Their debt to GDP would skyrocket as world markets would close off.
http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=353272&ssid=51&sid=BUS (http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=353272&ssid=51&sid=BUS)
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/17/business/dollar.php (http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/17/business/dollar.php)
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So strong that Russia, China, and Malaysia all dropped the dollar this year.
They drop it not because they feel it will collapse.
No, I contend they dropped the dollar because they feel guilt when they earn $!
By the way what you said again is incorrect china has put in place a flexible pegging system but still pegs it currency to the American dollar. It is called a managed float.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6353183.stm
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Good.
Clinton erased the last deficit, who'll do it this time around? If we continue to stay in Iraq then we're gonna continue to spend away.
I know nothing about economics past what my paycheck says so forgive me for this dumb question. Is the deficit we speak of the budget deficit? If so, is that different than the national debt?
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http://www.cbo.gov/budget/historical.pdf
http://www.fin.gc.ca/ec2006/ec/eca1e.html (http://www.fin.gc.ca/ec2006/ec/eca1e.html)
http://www.iflr.com/?Page=17&ISS=16157&SID=508167 (http://www.iflr.com/?Page=17&ISS=16157&SID=508167)
American 36.8% debt to gdp.
China is around 40.5%
Secondly only to Canada in the G8 and America is fighting in Iraq.
America's economy is still performing very well and its debt to GDP is very manageable.
GWB might be screwing up in Iraq, but the economy is still very strong. Just don't listen to Lou Dobbs.
Hedge should be proud Sweden has the strongest economy out of almost any nation.
Sweden are poor neighbours relatively speaking.
Even though our economy is looking good, it pales in comparison to Norway's. Norway's economy is off-the-chart, they got plenty of off-shore oil resources, and they're also putting a lot of that money in federal oil funds.
For use "in the future".
Whatever the future, Norway won't have any economical problems...
-Hedge
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I know nothing about economics past what my paycheck says so forgive me for this dumb question. Is the deficit we speak of the budget deficit? If so, is that different than the national debt?
budget deficit = how much you're losing per year. Bush is losing money by borrowing $200 million PER DAY just to fight in Iraq.
clinton had a 'budget surplus', where the nation came out ahead each year.
National debt (8 or 9 trillion now) is how much the US owes to foreign banks and companies. We use our roads and parks as collateral.
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Trade deficit climbs to $763.6 billion
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON - The U.S. trade deficit set a fifth consecutive annual record in 2006, reflecting a huge jump in America's foreign oil bill and an all-time high for the trade gap with China. The year ended with the December deficit increasing more than had been expected.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the gap between what America sells abroad and what it imports rose to a record $763.6 billion last year, a 6.5 percent increase from the previous record of $716.7 billion set in 2005. For December, the deficit rose a bigger-than-expected 5.3 percent to $61.2 billion.
The annual trade deficit has set a record for five consecutive years, a development the Bush administration attributes to the fact that the U.S. economy has been growing more rapidly than the rest of the world. The administration argues that American consumers have benefited from the flood of cheaper imports, a development which has helped to hold down inflation.
But critics contend the deficits are a reflection of a flawed trade policy that has failed to protect American workers from unfair foreign competition.
They point to the 3 million manufacturing jobs lost since Bush took office and contend that more companies have been moving production offshore to take advantage of cheaper labor and lax environmental regulations.
Growing unhappiness over the trade deficit and lost manufacturing jobs played a role in a number of congressional campaigns last fall, helping Democrats win control of both the House and Senate for the first time in 12 years.
The latest trade gap comes at a critical time for Bush, who faces the challenge of convincing Congress to extend the authority he needs to strike new free trade agreements with individual countries and pursue a global trade pact.
The current fast-track trade promotion authority expires on July 1 and Democrats say it will not be renewed without greater protections for U.S. workers in the area of labor rights and the environment.
The new trade report showed that the deficit with China shot up 15.4 percent last year to total $232.5 billion, the largest imbalance ever recorded with any country. China surpassed Japan as the country with the largest trade gap with the United States in 2000 and has held the top spot since that time.
American manufacturers contend China is unfairly manipulating its currency to keep it undervalued against the dollar by as much as 40 percent, which makes Chinese goods cheaper in the United States and U.S. products more expensive in China.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has told Congress that a new high-level dialogue with China holds the best prospects for convincing the Chinese to move more quickly to revalue their currency, but critics charge that tougher action including the threat of economic sanctions will be needed to force China to move.
Economists believe that the worst may be over in terms of a deteriorating trade deficit. The 6.5 percent rise in the deficit for 2006 followed much larger percentage gains of 17.3 percent in 2005 and 23.5 percent in 2004.
The biggest factor in last year's increase was a surge in America's foreign oil bill, which rose to a record $302.5 billion as the average price of a barrel of crude oil rose to an annual high of $58, reflecting a big jump last summer that pushed oil briefly above $77 per barrel.
The $763.6 billion deficit for the total year reflected a $836.1 billion deficit in goods trade and a $72.5 billion surplus in trade in services, such as banking and insurance, where the United States has a competitive advantage over other countries.
Total exports of goods and services jumped 12.8 percent last year to an all-time high of $1.44 trillion. Imports, however, also set a record, rising by 10.4 percent to an all-time high of $2.20 trillion.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070213/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy
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Dollar loses ground against euro
November 24, 2006
The dollar has plunged to its lowest level against the euro since April 2005 amid concerns for the US economy.
The euro surged to $1.3086 against the dollar, with many other currencies following suit.
Sterling rose almost 1% to $1.93, the yen hit a two-month high and Russia's rouble rose to a seven-year high.
Analysts have voiced concerns about the US economy after the White House downgraded its growth forecasts amid a sharp slowdown in the housing market.
Meanwhile, expectations that the European Central Bank is once again about to raise interest rates gave a lift to the euro.
Recent figures showing an unexpected rise in German business sentiment - its seventh quarterly rise in a row - also helped. So did French data showing that business confidence held at five-year highs in November.
However, traders added that thin trade as a result of the US Thanksgiving holiday might have benefited the euro.
"For the time being, the news flow is favouring the euro. If we close above $1.30 today, the key will be if we reject all of this as a Thanksgiving phenomenon or not," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Bank.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6179552.stm
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budget deficit = how much you're losing per year. Bush is losing money by borrowing $200 million PER DAY just to fight in Iraq.
clinton had a 'budget surplus', where the nation came out ahead each year.
National debt (8 or 9 trillion now) is how much the US owes to foreign banks and companies. We use our roads and parks as collateral.
Actually Debt to GDP is the same as when Clinton was president.
As the economy gets stronger, the ability to absorb debt also increases.
also over 1/2 of the US debt is owned by Americans, through bonds and T-bills.
America's economy is still strong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._public_debt (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._public_debt)
Structure of the debt
The Bureau of the Public Debt divides the national debt into two main categories: debt held by the public, and intragovernmental holdings. Intragovernmental debt includes money for government trust funds, such as pension plans and the debt for social security. Overall, intragovernmental holdings account for over $3.1 trillion of the total debt at this time.
The remaining $4.6 trillion or so has been purchased by the public, including foreign entities. This largely comes from the issuance of U.S. Treasury securities. Nearly half ($2.2 trillion) is composed of Treasury notes (aka T-notes), while T-bills and T-bonds (including savings bonds) cover most of the remaining public portion of the debt. Bonds sold for infrastructure projects are also part of the national debt.
It is common for individual Americans and businesses to buy bonds and other securities, though much of the debt is now held overseas. At the end of 2004, foreign holdings of Treasury debt were $1.886 trillion, which was 44% of the total debt held by the public. Foreign central banks owned 64% of the Federal debt held by foreign residents; private investors owned nearly all the rest (figures are from the Analytical Perspectives of the 2006 U.S. Budget, page 257).
The country holding by far the most U.S. debt is Japan which held $644.2 billion at the end of August 2006. In recent years the People's Republic of China has also become a holder of over $1 trillion in total foreign reserves, of which about $339 billion are U.S. Treasury securities. Source: [3] [4]
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Actually Debt to GDP is the same as when Clinton was president.
As the economy gets stronger, the ability to absorb debt also increases.
This ratio matters naught when overall debt is rising. Yes, the GDP numbers are going to go up in 8 years. They'd better! The whole world is growing and we are too. But that doesn't mean we want to raise the debt equally. If you're going into debt $5k a year when you're earining $25k a year... would you think it's SMART to start going into debt by $10k a year once you hit $50k a year in earnings?
IMHO - You're trying to say "it's okay, it's okay" and selecting a few ratios which show things aren't as bad as everyone thinks. But here's the thing... there's a reason (nearly) everyone thinks it's that bad. If the dollar was strong, MORE people would be going to it. They're all running after using it for decades. They're smarter than we are, they live this stuff, they're betting their nation's economies on it, and see intel we won't.
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This ratio matters naught when overall debt is rising. Yes, the GDP numbers are going to go up in 8 years. They'd better! The whole world is growing and we are too. But that doesn't mean we want to raise the debt equally. If you're going into debt $5k a year when you're earining $25k a year... would you think it's SMART to start going into debt by $10k a year once you hit $50k a year in earnings?
IMHO - You're trying to say "it's okay, it's okay" and selecting a few ratios which show things aren't as bad as everyone thinks. But here's the thing... there's a reason (nearly) everyone thinks it's that bad. If the dollar was strong, MORE people would be going to it. They're all running after using it for decades. They're smarter than we are, they live this stuff, they're betting their nation's economies on it, and see intel we won't.
Almost every G8 nation is doing the same as America. Most economies try to keep some sort GDP to Debt ratio. This includes your favorite country China, which is having a bigger problem then the US keeping their GDP to debt ration in line. This has quite a bit to do with how they are holding their currency down.
Sure Debt is bad, but most banks will tell you what type and how much credit is OK to carry. This is no different.
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Good.
Clinton erased the last deficit, who'll do it this time around? If we continue to stay in Iraq then we're gonna continue to spend away.
Keep in mind that Clinton couldn't have done without a Republican backed congress!!!!
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Keep in mind that Clinton couldn't have done without a Republican backed congress!!!!
Bush had a repub-led congress too ;)
Are you saying that Clinton was able to manage money better than Clinton?
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Bush had a repub-led congress too ;)
Are you saying that Clinton was able to manage money better than Clinton?
Clinton was never involved in a wartime situation either!
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Clinton was never involved in a wartime situation either!
Many see that as a positive ;)
What's worse - avoiding all wars, or starting 3 elective ones?
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Keep in mind that Clinton couldn't have done without a Republican backed congress!!!!
hmmm....and look what Bush did with a republican backed congress.
Interesting.
Sandra
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Many see that as a positive ;)
What's worse - avoiding all wars, or starting 3 elective ones?
Clinton was involved with at least
Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Haiti.
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Almost every G8 nation is doing the same as America. Most economies try to keep some sort GDP to Debt ratio. This includes your favorite country China, which is having a bigger problem then the US keeping their GDP to debt ration in line. This has quite a bit to do with how they are holding their currency down.
Sure Debt is bad, but most banks will tell you what type and how much credit is OK to carry. This is no different.
US GDP correlates strongly with WGP. WGP -> has increased a lot the last years.
If the US gov. depends on debt in good times (to finance wars aso.), what happens in a recession? The debt is still there, the areas that creates the debt can not be shut down over night (thus, it will act as a constant FC over a certain time period), and reducing debt to maintain a debt/GDP in a recession will be very difficult when costs remain high, while gov. income goes down.
The logic you present here does not make sense. The current trend will increase the Us Gov. debt, the financial burdens will be there in teh future, and thinking that GDP will remain high and rising in the future = not realistic.
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US GDP correlates strongly with WGP. WGP -> has increased a lot the last years.
If the US gov. depends on debt in good times (to finance wars aso.), what happens in a recession? The debt is still there, the areas that creates the debt can not be shut down over night (thus, it will act as a constant FC over a certain time period), and reducing debt to maintain a debt/GDP in a recession will be very difficult when costs remain high, while gov. income goes down.
The logic you present here does not make sense. The current trend will increase the Us Gov. debt, the financial burdens will be there in teh future, and thinking that GDP will remain high and rising in the future = not realistic.
Do you lease or buy your Car.
Do you have mortgage.
What happens when you lose your job.
Sure increasing the debt is bad, but it is not catastrophic.
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hmmm....and look what Bush did with a republican backed congress.
Interesting.
Sandra
The biggest economic growth in 20 years...............duri ng wartime!
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Do you lease or buy your Car.
Do you have mortgage.
What happens when you lose your job.
Sure increasing the debt is bad, but it is not catastrophic.
That is correct. Debussey does not have bad debt, Debussey thought about its financial strategies a long time ago.
The point is, govDebt/GDP is not a valid argument in the given scenario, because the debt is not easily reversible in a recession (which is bound to come) due to the given factors (war, dependency on loans aso.), thus, maintaining the debt/GDP ratio is not easy over time. The debt will most likely continue to grow, and when GDP does not keep up, the debt/GDP ratio goes up, even if teh total debt amount = static.
It is not catastrophic, but it is not very smart way to balance the gov.finances either. The US economy does show strength during crisis (Hurricane C aso.), but this debt increase = not smart, it can become a huge burden in the future. The economy is still strong, but building a house on a weak foundation might not seem that bad either until the foundation cracks.
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The biggest economic growth in 20 years...............duri ng wartime!
WGP (World gross product) increased a lot parallel to the US economic growth (they correlate strongly). The US benefited a lot after soviet went to hell, and many other factors contributed to the economic growth you are talking about. This growth is NOT the works of a brainiac president..
The US gov. actually managed to multiply its debt by 8,7 times between 1981 and 2005. That is pretty funny, when the economy in general grew a lot. Do you see the brutal error here?
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This growth is NOT the works of a brainiac president..
Lets face it, Liberals wouldn't give him credit for it anyway, but if it were a Lib they would be praising him......total and utter bullshit!!
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Lets face it, Liberals wouldn't give him credit for it anyway, but if it were a Lib they would be praising him......total and utter bullshit!!
Economically, Bush is a liberal.
I don't see your "liberal" media going all gung-ho over his antics. Not even O'Reilly.
-Hedge
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Economically, Bush is a liberal.
I don't see your "liberal" media going all gung-ho over his antics. Not even O'Reilly.
-Hedge
What antics are you referring? They don't even give him credit for the economy, they think the solution is to always raise taxes, clearly they were proven wrong!!
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What antics are you referring? They don't even give him credit for the economy, they think the solution is to always raise taxes, clearly they were proven wrong!!
What antics?
*Presenting a budget that isn't balanced. Sixth or seventh consecutive year he's done that I believe.
*Increasing spending without funding it.
*Saving money on Medicare and Medicaid, increasing the spending on the military.
*Tax cuts that aren't financed in the budget.
-Hedge